Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Summary : August 2019

1235»

Comments

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    Scott_P said:
    looks like we ought to keep hold of those Ken Clarke next PM betting slips...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    No deal frothers are so consumed with hubris that the only way is down.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    algarkirk said:

    ...government policy is to get a deal, not no deal...

    As I believe I've said before, I think they're lying. You may recall I coined the phrase "failing and blaming" to describe it.

    The sad thing is, I think I coined it over two years ago... :(

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    Scott_P said:
    Hammond, Gauke and Grieve were finished anyway.

    Their refusal to accept the democratic will of 17m+ has left them diminished and tarnished such that they are electoral poison.
    Lucky most of parliament are looking after the interests of 60m.
  • Scott_P said:

    A GE which Johnson will win.....

    In your dreams...
    They are odds on with the bookies...

    And this is a political betting site, after all....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I wonder whether there might be just two candidates in a constituency like Rushcliffe: the official Conservative candidate, and Ken Clarke.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    60/40 not too different to HYUFD’s estimate

    But that's 60/40 Remain, so the opposite of what HYUFD said. However, seems I was mistaken about one:
    Foxy said:

    Point of order!

    @Foxy is a Nonconformist, and not in the C of E.

    So that makes it 50/50 with HYUFD swinging around more than a priest in a...let's not go there.
    Nope, as I showed earlier 66% of Anglicans in a scientific poll voted Leave.

    End of conversation

    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/09/20/how-anglicans-tipped-the-brexit-vote/
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Foxy said:


    People don’t give a sh*t mate. It’s just a flag and incredibly unbritish to get your knickers in a twist over.

    I have a feeling you're projecting your sense of right and wrong on to decent people.

    There are always a few idiots, but the plethora of Union Flags at #Peoplesvote marches amongst the other flags shows that there are plenty of patriotic Remainers.
    You can be patriotic but still not care about a few idiots burning a flag. Flag waving is just naff anyway.
    Tens of thousands do that daily in our country with the EU flag - so naff as well !!!!
    Do they really? Who, where, why (and our country meaning Wales, or the UK)?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    Scott_P said:

    Tories 6/4 to have an overall majority....

    Fill your boots.
    The process is to wait until I post, then sneakily do a new thread immediately after I post it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    The dark nights election will soon be upon us....

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    The dark nights election will soon be upon us....

    We may get an election before the clocks go back.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    Foxy said:


    People don’t give a sh*t mate. It’s just a flag and incredibly unbritish to get your knickers in a twist over.

    I have a feeling you're projecting your sense of right and wrong on to decent people.

    There are always a few idiots, but the plethora of Union Flags at #Peoplesvote marches amongst the other flags shows that there are plenty of patriotic Remainers.
    You can be patriotic but still not care about a few idiots burning a flag. Flag waving is just naff anyway.
    Tens of thousands do that daily in our country with the EU flag - so naff as well !!!!
    Do they really? Who, where, why (and our country meaning Wales, or the UK)?
    Every day in demonstration around the HOC against brexit, all over the country this last weekend, and by Country I mean Great Britain
  • No deal frothers are so consumed with hubris that the only way is down.

    The "frothers" are mainly remainers (most of them seemingly on this site).


    Night night - an hour in the echo chamber is quite long enough.....
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Scott_P said:
    Hammond, Gauke and Grieve were finished anyway.

    Their refusal to accept the democratic will of 17m+ has left them diminished and tarnished such that they are electoral poison.
    Hammond voted for A50 and the deal.
    You are literally accusing him of thought crime, which might not make you the good guy here.
  • I assume same in Calais but that is not mentioned
  • AndyJS said:

    I wonder whether there might be just two candidates in a constituency like Rushcliffe: the official Conservative candidate, and Ken Clarke.

    Ken is standing down
  • Scott_P said:

    Tories 6/4 to have an overall majority....

    Fill your boots.
    I suspect the bookies have a rather better feel for the odds than you do.

    Tip - the red mist is not a good lens through which to see these things....
  • Fascinating to watch men (and perhaps women) who voted for the WA three times purged.

    Boris (or perhaps Cummings) is ruthless in a way we actually haven’t seen before in this country, not in modern times.

    What I can’t quite figure out though is how this helps him.

    If he doesn’t have a majority how is he going to call an election? The only way it can happen is if he loses a VONC, but I don’t think parliament is going to give him the “satisfaction”.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698

    I assume same in Calais but that is not mentioned
    Yes although of course France is not really dependent on the Dover Calais route for any of its basic supplies.
  • Noo said:

    Scott_P said:
    Hammond, Gauke and Grieve were finished anyway.

    Their refusal to accept the democratic will of 17m+ has left them diminished and tarnished such that they are electoral poison.
    Hammond voted for A50 and the deal.
    You are literally accusing him of thought crime, which might not make you the good guy here.
    Welcome Philip.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting to see on the previous thread that Beverley (a self-professed die hard Remainer) would accept EEA-

    I woukd be willing
    That's probably the biggest blue and an emergency brake would cover it.
    In 10 years maybe but weth a points system first as well as doing our own trade
    "...what Leave voters really voted for" Now there's a thing.

    It's incredible the way some people are self-appointing themselves as the only true diviners of what 17m people voted for.
    Vote Leave campaignedg Leave voters by ignoring-


    ls and is free of control from European courts
    You cannot get away with that line for much longer. If he wanted any of those those things he’d be pushing for enough time to get them in place - something impossible to do before 31 October. You know there is no “technical solution” as well as anyone or you would have told us what it is by now. It’s just the same tired phrases that mean nothing “Diehard Remainers”, “points based”, “technical solutions”. There is no “technical solution”.

    https://news.sky.com/story/technological-solution-to-irish-border-issue-could-be-a-decade-away-says-home-office-document-11696337

    We already have a “points system” for non EEA nationals that is has failed completely and no proposals have been put forward for a new one that is.

    https://capx.co/britains-immigration-isnt-fit-for-purpose/

    It’s all empty phrases, all of it. It’s all you have. You can persuade huge numbers of people by telling them nice things they love to hear but you can’t deliver any of it.
    You and your fellow diehard Remainers cannot get away any longer with refusing to respect the Leave vote and both Boris and Cummings are rightly prepared to go to war with you in a way May was not when you went to war with her by rejecting the Withdrawal Agreement.

    Both Macron and Merkel have said they will listen to the technical solution Boris proposes in the next 30 days and rightly so, Withdrawal Agreement minus backstop was the only Brexit option to get a Commons majority and got the support of 52% of voters with Survation this weekend.

    We do not have a full Australian style points system for either EEA or non EEA nationals and Boris will ensure we have one exactly as Vote Leave promised in the campaign.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I suspect the bookies have a rather better feel for the odds than you do.

    I made no comment on the odds.

    I was suggesting you avail yourself of the opportunity to clean up betting on the outcome you are so sure of.

    Fill your boots
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    So. If Corbyn refuses to have an election at Boris’s command, he will be accused of being frit.

    Considering the government has constantly told us that the public does not want an election, its not exactly going to cost Jezza any votes.

    Therefore, he has nothing to lose. He just needs to make Boris stew.
  • AndyJS said:

    I wonder whether there might be just two candidates in a constituency like Rushcliffe: the official Conservative candidate, and Ken Clarke.

    Ken is standing down
    Who knows, he may change his mind.
    He seems quite up for anything these days.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    I'm in Belfast. It's raining. It's a rainy Sunday night in Belfast and everything is closed.

    Poo.

  • I assume same in Calais but that is not mentioned
    Yes although of course France is not really dependent on the Dover Calais route for any of its basic supplies.
    It is for its exports
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    Scott_P said:

    Tories 6/4 to have an overall majority....

    Fill your boots.
    I suspect the bookies have a rather better feel for the odds than you do.

    Tip - the red mist is not a good lens through which to see these things....
    Ha! What about the EU ref?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    60/40 not too different to HYUFD’s estimate

    But that's 60/40 Remain, so the opposite of what HYUFD said. However, seems I was mistaken about one:
    Foxy said:

    Point of order!

    @Foxy is a Nonconformist, and not in the C of E.

    So that makes it 50/50 with HYUFD swinging around more than a priest in a...let's not go there.
    Feel free to add me to the list of Anglican Leavers.
    Will do
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    viewcode said:

    I'm in Belfast. It's raining. It's a rainy Sunday night in Belfast and everything is closed.

    Poo.

    Buy a 6 pack of Carling tinnies. I hear its delicious.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    I assume same in Calais but that is not mentioned
    Yes although of course France is not really dependent on the Dover Calais route for any of its basic supplies.
    It is for its exports
    They need us more than we need them right?
  • NEW THREAD

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    viewcode said:

    I'm in Belfast. It's raining. It's a rainy Sunday night in Belfast and everything is closed.

    Poo.

    Ah, that true British experience of the 1960's, welcome to Back to the Future Brexit Britain!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    Scott_P said:
    The Tory Party actually has 2 11% leads and 1 7% lead in the 3 latest polls since Cummings too over
  • I assume same in Calais but that is not mentioned
    Yes although of course France is not really dependent on the Dover Calais route for any of its basic supplies.
    It is for its exports
    They need us more than we need them right?
    Why quote that at me. I want a deal and of course it always was a nonsense statement by leave. I voted remain by the way
  • So. If Corbyn refuses to have an election at Boris’s command, he will be accused of being frit.

    Considering the government has constantly told us that the public does not want an election, its not exactly going to cost Jezza any votes.

    Therefore, he has nothing to lose. He just needs to make Boris stew.

    At this point, the least worst outcome is a GONU led by Ken Clarke which agrees an EFTA-like Brexit and maintains itself until an election in 2022.

    Second best is to for Parliament to legislate a delay in Brexit somehow, and to keep Boris sitting there powerless to do anything, unable even to call an election under the FTPA. He would be Theresified.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951

    Fascinating to watch men (and perhaps women) who voted for the WA three times purged.

    Boris (or perhaps Cummings) is ruthless in a way we actually haven’t seen before in this country, not in modern times.

    What I can’t quite figure out though is how this helps him.

    If he doesn’t have a majority how is he going to call an election? The only way it can happen is if he loses a VONC, but I don’t think parliament is going to give him the “satisfaction”.

    Like him or loathe him, he's done more in the last three weeks than May managed in three years.

    Tactically, I think he's figured out that he *can't* win.

    What he wants to do is make a fight of it. Then at the next GE say "I tried, nobody could try harder than me - but the parliamentary maths aren't there. Give me the majority I need and I will deliver Brexit."

    This is his best chance of winning a GE, whenever that may be. Goad remainers into thwarting him and hope it'll piss off enough leavers to win him a majority, after which he can do what he likes (which will probably be some variant on May's deal).

    It's why I think people who think Dominic Cummings is playing "chicken" with the EU are wrong. The aim isn't to play chicken with the EU, it's to look tough for domestic media.

    The calculation is simple. Make it look like he's done everything possible to deliver Brexit, while giving remainers every possible reason, chance, opportunity to thwart him - including withdrawing the whip from rebels - and gamble on the voters returning him with a bigger majority for trying.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Johnson has got to the Crush the Saboteurs stage of the May Brexit trajectory. It took May a year to get there. Johnson is on an accelerated flight path and it's only taken him a month to get to the same stage.
  • If we have an election before a No Deal Brexit, the entire election will be about what No Deal will entail. The Tories will have to promise it will be fine. That’s why if and when they win it will be the last Tory election victory in UK history.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    viewcode said:

    I'm in Belfast. It's raining. It's a rainy Sunday night in Belfast and everything is closed.

    Poo.

    Buy a 6 pack of Carling tinnies. I hear its delicious.
    All the shops are shut. It's weird. No kebab shops. No 8-til-lates. Just strange groups of youts, wandering around. Hoodies are back, apparently.
  • What I have been saying since the half hearted prorogation. They are desperate to lose control and get an extension.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    edited September 2019

    viewcode said:

    The process is to wait until I post, then sneakily do a new thread immediately after I post it.

    NEW THREAD

    GODSDAMMIT!

  • If we have an election before a No Deal Brexit, the entire election will be about what No Deal will entail. The Tories will have to promise it will be fine. That’s why if and when they win it will be the last Tory election victory in UK history.

    I see it the other way.

    Remainer fear mongering has been so hysterical as to make anything other than a disaster of biblical proportions a success.

    If there has been one constant over the last 3 years it has been Project Fear overplaying their hand.
  • Fascinating to watch men (and perhaps women) who voted for the WA three times purged.

    Boris (or perhaps Cummings) is ruthless in a way we actually haven’t seen before in this country, not in modern times.

    What I can’t quite figure out though is how this helps him.

    If he doesn’t have a majority how is he going to call an election? The only way it can happen is if he loses a VONC, but I don’t think parliament is going to give him the “satisfaction”.

    Perhaps Boris and Cummings have gone mad and are going to declare themselves "Big Brother" and "Little Brother" and rule by diktat?

    However, "Yorick" and "Walter Mitty" might be more appropriate titles :D

    Doublespeak will become the norm. "Minority" now means "Majority"
  • If we have an election before a No Deal Brexit, the entire election will be about what No Deal will entail. The Tories will have to promise it will be fine. That’s why if and when they win it will be the last Tory election victory in UK history.

    I would love to believe this but you even have Big G and his son-in-law practically begging for a No Deal at this point.

    Cummings knows how to manage the media and various useful idiots in a way that the varying forces of Remain just can’t compete with.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    edited September 2019

    If we have an election before a No Deal Brexit, the entire election will be about what No Deal will entail. The Tories will have to promise it will be fine. That’s why if and when they win it will be the last Tory election victory in UK history.

    Utter crap. There will always be a right of centre party in the UK and that party will always form a government at some point.

    The only way there would never be another Tory election victory is if the Tories did not deliver Brexit and the Brexit Party replaced them as the main party of the right
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    HYUFD said:

    If we have an election before a No Deal Brexit, the entire election will be about what No Deal will entail. The Tories will have to promise it will be fine. That’s why if and when they win it will be the last Tory election victory in UK history.

    Utter crap. There will always be a right of centre party in the UK and that party will always form a government at some point.

    The only way there would never be another Tory election victory is if the Tories did not deliver Brexit and the Brexit Party replaced them as the main party of the right
    ...or if the UK ceases to exist
This discussion has been closed.