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The unelected PM without a mandate has a big credibility problem https://t.co/TMrSpjOb3v
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So that's all right.
They might like him, they might even admire him. But trust?
That is where the Remainers have failed. They squeal and scream that the public doesn't want a No Deal Brexit, which may be true in isolation, but they don't want anything else either. Just like the Commons. And No Deal is the legal default.
The one thing the country doesn't need and doesn't want is perpetual purgatory so the question to answer before 31 October is what realistic alternative do you want. If Parliament can find a majority for that then extending to get it could be reasonable. If it can't and just wants to kick the can again to avoid making a decision like in March then Boris is right to say no.
It would have been inevitable under May for instance.
Boris was far from a certainty to win the Conservative leadership until the ComRes poll on June 12th which showed him winning 395 seats for the Conservatives and a landslide whereas all the other candidates were either making no headway or losing seats.
As soon as he looked the only winner, he was.
- deliver a Brexit that has a mandate in parliament
- or call an election to get a mandate for his version of Brexit
- or change UK red lines, that were not his originally, to negotiate a different deal with the EU
Picking a Brexit that has the support of only about 200 MPs then goading the rest into a VONC and extension is not strength or commitment to a cause but a dereliction of responsibility of office. Sadly he may get rewarded for it at a subsequent GE where he pretends others stopped him.
Plenty of leavers on here will fall for it, and they are far better informed than the leave voting public.
If only they could persuade England and Wales to declare independence from the UK instead, it would solve practically everything
Swinson needs to find something. I wonder if the LDs would be better served just by having a policy of abstain and then rejoin.
Leavers treating remainers who accept virtually any Brexit deal as "diehard remainers" and "traitors" is not helping strenghten the UK negotiating position but weakens it.
Pro Corbyn voters
Always vote Labour
Anti Tory voters
Hard to see any of those blocks going much below 6%, Labour are close to their floor unless they divide into two.
If Boris matches Major's 1992 win in the autumn it will be a historic Tory triumph, only the 2nd time in the last 100 years a party has got a 4th consecutive term in office. Given no PM since Lord Liverpool has won a 5th consecutive term for his party (and that was pre Reform Act) Deal or No Deal I cannot see the Tories stretching the elastic further than one more general election win and Corbyn is certainly a help on that front (with Corbyn having a 26% lower net approval rating than Jo Swinson it looks likely the LDs will get closer to Labour than Labour does to the Tories while Corbyn remains Leader of the Opposition)
However Corbyn is the sort of politician that might turn it around. God help us if he does, obviously, but he clearly will hang on terrier-like whatever happens.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1167430545908871168?s=20
Idiots.
On the opposite side I am sure there are plenty telling pollsters they voted remain, when they perhaps supported remain but couldnt be bothered to vote.
Dr Anthony Daniels discusses the opioid problem in America.
"In 1980, a letter was published in the New England Journal of Medicine stating, quite correctly, that patients prescribed opiates such as morphine in hospital for acute, serious pain did not become addicts once they left hospital. This was important, because American doctors at the time were reluctant to prescribe such drugs even to patients for whom they were indicated for fear of turning them into addicts. Thus opiates were denied to those dying in severe pain, a cruel absurdity.
The letter had unintended and unforeseen consequences. It was used, more than a decade and a half later, to justify the prescription of strong synthetic or semi-synthetic opioids to patients suffering from chronic backache or arthralgia. Even minimally experienced doctors should have been able to distinguish between patients with acute pain and chronic pain. They should have been able to recognize that the two are very distinct; but, for a number of reasons, many American doctors failed to do so. This failure helped to turn the United States into by far the largest consumer of opioids per capita in the world. "
https://www.lawliberty.org/2019/06/13/opioids-in-america-signs-and-symptoms-of-malfeasance/
https://twitter.com/steven_swinford/status/1167494772031926272?s=21
How fluid the Lab/LD/Green vote is in opposing the Tories is what will decide the next PM.
https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1164125817498218496
The Hollow Men II: Some reflections on Westminster and Whitehall dysfunction"
https://dominiccummings.com/2014/10/30/the-hollow-men-ii-some-reflections-on-westminster-and-whitehall-dysfunction/
If in 2016 leave voters were more motivated but at the next GE remain voters are more motivated it would presumably be a mistake to account for the false recall?
What a PM.
Here's how my thread writing approach works
1) Have a punt, base a thread on that
2) Have a pun, base a thread on that
3) Do a thread on what's happening in the world
4) Come up with a thread that will annoy some people
Some of my upcoming threads are based upon / discuss, inter alia, Hawaiian pizzas, AV, and making porn films.
Indeed, if Boris wins a 4th term they will likely be in office longer than Palmerston and Asquith's Liberals or Salisbury's Tories too
There are some obvious Brexit-vote-deniers. Soubry for example lost it totally on Brexit night. The LDs though chose to totally fail to accommodate a democratic vote, and they did so not because they lost it like Soubry, but because they didn't want it and thought it was ok to complain to the teacher that the cat ate their homework.
Anyways, good luck with the guest hosting.
YouGov assumes the latter and downwieghts Labour in its polls - not sure if they do the same for Remain?
In 2015 I wanted to ensure the Tories won the national popular vote.
So Boris is following a twin track of honouring the two votes that have a mandate in Parliament. Either we leave with a deal, like the Brady Amendment, or we leave automatically without one via the Article 50 process. If there's some mything unicorn mandated alternative why wasn't it proposed during the indicative votes?
2: No need, he needs to try and deliver Brexit with this Parliament before the election.
3: No need, the UK red lines were his originally, every single one of them is a Vote Leave commitment. Without exception.
https://www.ft.com/content/eaae31b2-c004-11e9-9381-78bab8a70848
Ireland appears to be a role model for the Singaporean economy that Johnson's regime aspires to.
GDP/head in ROI increased from €13,934 in 1995 to €40,655 last year. For the UK the increase was from €21,716 in 1995 to €30,594 last year.
Irish exports to the UK are 11% of total exports and falling, 39% to the rest of the EU and 50% and growing to the rest of the world. Britain exports more to the ROI than it does to China!
Value of all goods and services exports per employed person in Ireland was €126,630 per year. For the UK it was €17,627.
Ireland is expert at exporting and in attracting capital and talent. The UK is poor at exporting, sells its capital assets and repels talent.
The new Gaeillic Republic of the island of Ireland and Scotland will leave England and Wales in the dust! London and the University towns, which ARE dynamic and attract capital and talent, are chained to the corpse of complacent, insular, entitled Brexit Britain. Leaving the EU is not a solution to the fundamental problem. It makes it worse.
In 2013 I met and became friends with some people who worked for the Labour party GE campaign because they really enjoyed my threads because in their words my pieces were impeccably non partisan and perceptive as well.
I also got to know some SNP/Yes people who also liked my pieces for the same reasons at the same time.
Now the Boris led Tories have an 11% lead over Corbyn Labour in today's Yougov poll and the LDs are snapping at Labour's heels just 1% behind the reds