I'm continually baffled as to how Corbyn's approval ratings fail to undermine the Labour vote more extensively. It's not as though the rest of the Labour front-bench are doing a stellar job to counter-balance (slightly the opposite in fact).
Swinson needs to find something. I wonder if the LDs would be better served just by having a policy of abstain and then rejoin.
The LDs are just 1% behind Labour in the latest Yougov while Labour are 11% behind the Tories
He announced it two days ago but then Adonis is another one of those driven stir crazy by brexit
Taxman said
It is pretty obvious to me that Boris Johnson is in an "election lockdown" given his daily media appearances. The Brexit supporting media are in full propaganda mode - I don't buy into it but that is what is going on. Maybe the proroguing of Parliament is about a snap GE as much as anything else. I have seen all this before with other PM's but the strategic positioning and media output is unmistakable.
......................................
I agree. I think Boris(Cummings) have war gamed this as a battle between the people v parliament, the elite and judiciary and if any baulk his chosen path he will just announce a GE and challenge Corbyn to the battle. I see no circumstances where Corbyn would not agree
Following that I expect a near SNP whitewash and many London and south based conservatives to lose seats but for the conservatives to make considerable gains off labour in England and Wales but not enough for a majority
The HOC are likely to see a big increase in lib dems, and together with the SNP, and the remains of labour the conservatives could end up in the same position, and dare I say it deadlock again
Not a pretty picture, if I am correct, for any of us
Indeed, this talk about legislating against No Deal plays into his hands in that scenario.
I think the best thing for MPs opposed to No Deal is to remove Boris Johnson from office and install someone else. I would be interested to see if the media would give his successor a fair wind as Johnson is enjoying at the moment. Lets remember Johnson has No Mandate for No Deal and removal from office eliminates the risk...
A GE is the best way to do that. Alternatively the HOC needs to agree on a cadidate to act as interim PM but that means Corbyn being bypassed
I also think a GE is the reason Rudd, Javid and Hancock are saying nothing about their previous opposition to Proroguing Parliament. Boris Johnson could decide to abort any GE of course like Gordon Brown but I suspect given his chancer nature he is going to go through with it and it will probably be October.
I agree with TSE. Boris Johnson will be the last Tory leader ever to win a UK election.
No he won't, though May might have been the last Tory leader ever to win most seats at a general election had the Brexit Party overtaken the Tories as the main party of the right in the UK
Have you ever thought that it might make your posting more acceptable to start by saying ‘in my opinion’ and I think that because of this and other evidence which supports the poll could possibly the outcome?
I agree with TSE. Boris Johnson will be the last Tory leader ever to win a UK election.
Might still be Cameron...
May came first in seats and votes in 2017.
Maybe so but she still lost the election. No Majority, which she had before I hasten to add!
Because a lot of LD supporters decided to vote for Corbyn because they thought he would stop Brexit, despite the fact that he'd always been one of the most Eurosceptic Labour MPs.
A scepticism always needs to be applied when Irish GDP figures are discussed. Even the EU in their reports on member countries economic performance always puts in a caveat about the figures being distorted by such activities as contract out manufacturing, etc.
I will not deny they have done well in getting investment that have build drug factories, etc. But they have also attracted a significant amount of financial engineering, that boosts exports or GDP.
You are absolutely correct: GDP overstates Irish economic output. Take drug manufacturing. To make and sell pharmaceuticals, you need R&D, clinical trials, a salesforce, and a manufacturing plant.
Ireland does (the very high margin) manufacturing. But that actually isn't that high value add, in reality. It wouldn't be hard to do it in Romania or Rotherham. But that's where - according to company and country accounts - the value add happens, with precursors converted to pills for sale.
The reality is that the drug development work - which is more likely to happen in the UK, the US, Sweden or Switzerland - is the real value add product. But that is simply charged "at cost" on company accounts, because why would you want to accrue profits in high tax countries?
That being said, there is also a lot of genuinely very high value add manufacturing that happens there. Intel has three tier one manufacturing facilities in the world, where they do the process R&D that then feeds through to other plants. One is in Ireland.
I don't know exactly how much one should knock off Irish GDP to account for the pharmaceutical type effects. My guess is that if you look at mean family income statistics, they probably give a better idea of what accrues to locals. There you see that Ireland is about 10% above the UK (in 2017), and that feels about right.
Union is being broken by Brexit and Britain's best battler in Scotland has raised white flag
Even Ruth Davidson has had enough of Boris Johnson's extremist nonsense and Record View believes the case for independence is being bolstered by the actions of the Tory buffoon.
If the Brexit fiasco has a silver lining it's that Scotland seems to be developing a consensus that things must be done differently here. Whether that leads to independence, I don't know. But a consensus is surely a good thing, that was missing in 2014.
So let me make sure I have this correctly.
Brexit would be a disaster for the UK
Scottish independence on the other hand would be a land of milk and honey and the divorce proceedings a walk in the park?
Quite. The fact that Scottish independence is perfectly viable, can be argued to be desirable and may even be inevitable does not excuse those who advocate it from explaining how it will work: if there's one lesson I expect the SNP will have learned not only from Brexit but also from the 2014 defeat, it's that their chances of success will be much improved if they come up with a believable plan next time.
That, presumably, will need to include a bit of realism about what cuts they will need to make to public services once the fiscal transfers from London stop, as well as a new idea for what to do about the currency.
I agree. I think Boris(Cummings) have war gamed this as a battle between the people v parliament, the elite and judiciary and if any baulk his chosen path he will just announce a GE and challenge Corbyn to the battle. I see no circumstances where Corbyn would not agree
Following that I expect a near SNP whitewash and many London and south based conservatives to lose seats but for the conservatives to make considerable gains off labour in England and Wales but not enough for a majority
The HOC are likely to see a big increase in lib dems, and together with the SNP, and the remains of labour the conservatives could end up in the same position,
Indeed, this talk about legislating against No Deal plays into his hands in that scenario.
I think the best thing for MPs opposed to No Deal is to remove Boris Johnson from office and install someone else. I would be interested to see if the media would give his successor a fair wind as Johnson is enjoying at the moment. Lets remember Johnson has No Mandate for No Deal and removal from office eliminates the risk...
That is the one way to ensure Boris wins the subsequent GE with an overwhelming majority.
Union is being broken by Brexit and Britain's best battler in Scotland has raised white flag
Even Ruth Davidson has had enough of Boris Johnson's extremist nonsense and Record View believes the case for independence is being bolstered by the actions of the Tory buffoon.
If the Brexit fiasco has a silver lining it's that Scotland seems to be developing a consensus that things must be done differently here. Whether that leads to independence, I don't know. But a consensus is surely a good thing, that was missing in 2014.
I'd like to see Scotland and NI combine with ROI into a Gaelliic nation with a population of 12 million within the EU. It wouldn't be dominated by ROI (population 5 million) and the border with England and Wales would involve a manageable few roads and railways lines. All it needs is an Act of Union. It could call itself the United Republic in contrast to England and Wales.
EDIT Perhaps it could include London as its capital (another 8 million).
Fraser Nelson delivers stunning Brexit warning to Tories as Ruth Davidson leaves party
”She has many reasons for resigning, but one is that she can’t sell an agenda she can’t bring herself to believe in. “This ought to give the Tories pause”.
Several issues are expected to rise out of the resignation, with Scottish independence a burning topic that may well take centre stage.
Ms Davidson is a staunch believer of staying in the UK, and had campaigned to remain in her eight years as leader - her resignation may well pave the way for bolstered independence support.
I agree with TSE. Boris Johnson will be the last Tory leader ever to win a UK election.
Might still be Cameron...
May came first in seats and votes in 2017.
Maybe so but she still lost the election. No Majority, which she had before I hasten to add!
She was PM before and after the election.
In office but not in power!
If a party does not win a majority, it is usually counted as having lost an election. I don't think there is a technical definition like the one LBJ invented about two quarters of negative growth being a recession but generally speaking: No majority in Parliament is not a win! I would not say David Cameron' won' the 2010 election as he had no Majority without teaming up with the LD. He still became PM.
Union is being broken by Brexit and Britain's best battler in Scotland has raised white flag
Even Ruth Davidson has had enough of Boris Johnson's extremist nonsense and Record View believes the case for independence is being bolstered by the actions of the Tory buffoon.
If the Brexit fiasco has a silver lining it's that Scotland seems to be developing a consensus that things must be done differently here. Whether that leads to independence, I don't know. But a consensus is surely a good thing, that was missing in 2014.
So let me make sure I have this correctly.
Brexit would be a disaster for the UK
Scottish independence on the other hand would be a land of milk and honey and the divorce proceedings a walk in the park?
If you are a Unionist you're screwed both ways with Brexit on one side and independence on the other. So you develop a karma to deal with all adversity.
And I should also add that independence, while being very austere, at least has a point.
Fraser Nelson delivers stunning Brexit warning to Tories as Ruth Davidson leaves party
”She has many reasons for resigning, but one is that she can’t sell an agenda she can’t bring herself to believe in. “This ought to give the Tories pause”.
Several issues are expected to rise out of the resignation, with Scottish independence a burning topic that may well take centre stage.
Ms Davidson is a staunch believer of staying in the UK, and had campaigned to remain in her eight years as leader - her resignation may well pave the way for bolstered independence support.
Fraser Nelson delivers stunning Brexit warning to Tories as Ruth Davidson leaves party
”She has many reasons for resigning, but one is that she can’t sell an agenda she can’t bring herself to believe in. “This ought to give the Tories pause”.
Several issues are expected to rise out of the resignation, with Scottish independence a burning topic that may well take centre stage.
Ms Davidson is a staunch believer of staying in the UK, and had campaigned to remain in her eight years as leader - her resignation may well pave the way for bolstered independence support.
We are all collectively losing our minds. UK is descending into a complete nervous breakdown.
Most of us are not losing our minds. Actually, most of us aren't spending very much time thinking about politics at all. And most of the people who are losing their minds are just a bunch of demented ranting you-know-whats on Twitter, which is not and has never been representative of the overall state of public opinion.
I agree. I think Boris(Cummings) have war gamed this as a battle between the people v parliament, the elite and judiciary and if any baulk his chosen path he will just announce a GE and challenge Corbyn to the battle. I see no circumstances where Corbyn would not agree
Following that I expect a near SNP whitewash and many London and south based conservatives to lose seats but for the conservatives to make considerable gains off labour in England and Wales but not enough for a majority
The HOC are likely to see a big increase in lib dems, and together with the SNP, and the remains of labour the conservatives could end up in the same position,
Indeed, this talk about legislating against No Deal plays into his hands in that scenario.
I think the best thing for MPs opposed to No Deal is to remove Boris Johnson from office and install someone else. I would be interested to see if the media would give his successor a fair wind as Johnson is enjoying at the moment. Lets remember Johnson has No Mandate for No Deal and removal from office eliminates the risk...
That is the one way to ensure Boris wins the subsequent GE with an overwhelming majority.
Are you sure you don't post as HYUFD as well? Removing Johnson from office eliminates No Deal Brexit. Once Johnson is removed he becomes a loser. Little risk of a Marxist led Corbyn Government getting much extreme stuff through the H of C as an alternative Government would be multi-party. You might not agree with it and maybe it would not be stable but I think it takes the ground from under the extremist Johnson/Cummings strategy.
I agree. I think Boris(Cummings) have war gamed this as a battle between the people v parliament, the elite and judiciary and if any baulk his chosen path he will just announce a GE and challenge Corbyn to the battle. I see no circumstances where Corbyn would not agree
Following that I expect a near SNP whitewash and many London and south based conservatives to lose seats but for the conservatives to make considerable gains off labour in England and Wales but not enough for a majority
The HOC are likely to see a big increase in lib dems, and together with the SNP, and the remains of labour the conservatives could end up in the same position,
Indeed, this talk about legislating against No Deal plays into his hands in that scenario.
I think the best thing for MPs opposed to No Deal is to remove Boris Johnson from office and install someone else. I would be interested to see if the media would give his successor a fair wind as Johnson is enjoying at the moment. Lets remember Johnson has No Mandate for No Deal and removal from office eliminates the risk...
That is the one way to ensure Boris wins the subsequent GE with an overwhelming majority.
Are you sure you don't post as HYUFD as well? Removing Johnson from office eliminates No Deal Brexit. Once Johnson is removed he becomes a loser. Little risk of a Marxist led Corbyn Government getting much extreme stuff through the H of C as an alternative Government would be multi-party. You might not agree with it and maybe it would not be stable but I think it takes the ground from under the extremist Johnson/Cummings strategy.
It doesn't, it unites the Leave vote behind Boris with the Remain vote still split
I can see a future where, once the UK has left the EU, Labour and the LD's will gut each other out.
No future Tory leader is going to campaign in a GE on a platform of rejoining.
Which will leave Labour and the LD's fighting like rats in a sack over the (20%-30%?) hardcore rejoiners who would actually countenance reopening the wounds from 2016.
Leaving the EU is Kryptonite to Labour but electoral gold to the Tories.
We are all collectively losing our minds. UK is descending into a complete nervous breakdown.
Most of us are not losing our minds. Actually, most of us aren't spending very much time thinking about politics at all. And most of the people who are losing their minds are just a bunch of demented ranting you-know-whats on Twitter, which is not and has never been representative of the overall state of public opinion.
Amen.
People keep buying books, and all my mates (early 30s) have moved on. From my experience it’s the ‘middle aged, middle class, politically obsessed never lost anything in their lives’ brigade who seem to be fulminating.
Enjoyed Vern B’s column in the Guardian today. ‘MPs have failed us’ is what I’m hearing on the doorstep.
It’s interesting if you call him ‘Boris’ you are already psychologically biased towards him. His name is Alexander Boris’s De god knows what Johnson unless you call everybody else by their first names the you are adding to the con trick that Johnson is not what he is but some cuddles brilliant buffoon that can save the U.K. from disaster
James Gordon Brown and Leonard James Callaghan are on the phone. Quite a few people go by a name other than their first forename. Some also do nicknames, as James Jeremy Durham "Paddy" Ashdown can attest.
He announced it two days ago but then Adonis is another one of those driven stir crazy by brexit
Taxman said
It is pretty obvious to me that Boris Johnson is in an "election lockdown" given his daily media appearances. The Brexit supporting media are in full propaganda mode - I don't buy into it but that is what is going on. Maybe the proroguing of Parliament is about a snap GE as much as anything else. I have seen all this before with other PM's but the strategic positioning and media output is unmistakable.
......................................
I agree. I think Boris(Cummings) have war gamed this as a battle between the people v parliament, the elite and judiciary and if any baulk his chosen path he will just announce a GE and challenge Corbyn to the battle. I see no circumstances where Corbyn would not agree
Following that I expect a near SNP whitewash and many London and south based conservatives to lose seats but for the conservatives to make considerable gains off labour in England and Wales but not enough for a majority
The HOC are likely to see a big increase in lib dems, and together with the SNP, and the remains of labour the conservatives could end up in the same position, and dare I say it deadlock again
Not a pretty picture, if I am correct, for any of us
Indeed, this talk about legislating against No Deal plays into his hands in that scenario.
I think the best thing for MPs opposed to No Deal is to remove Boris Johnson from office and install someone else. I would be interested to see if the media would give his successor a fair wind as Johnson is enjoying at the moment. Lets remember Johnson has No Mandate for No Deal and removal from office eliminates the risk...
A GE is the best way to do that. Alternatively the HOC needs to agree on a cadidate to act as interim PM but that means Corbyn being bypassed
It looks as if there are now a few Tory MPs prepared to contemplate supporting Corbyn as a caretaker PM - Kenneth Clarke - Gutto Bebb - possibly Philip Lee. Will we see that list grow in coming days?
I agree with TSE. Boris Johnson will be the last Tory leader ever to win a UK election.
Might still be Cameron...
May came first in seats and votes in 2017.
Maybe so but she still lost the election. No Majority, which she had before I hasten to add!
She was PM before and after the election.
In office but not in power!
If a party does not win a majority, it is usually counted as having lost an election. I don't think there is a technical definition like the one LBJ invented about two quarters of negative growth being a recession but generally speaking: No majority in Parliament is not a win! I would not say David Cameron' won' the 2010 election as he had no Majority without teaming up with the LD. He still became PM.
Cammo did win in 2010, he was streets ahead of Labour in seats and votes.
He announced it two days ago but then Adonis is another one of those driven stir crazy by brexit
Taxman said
It is pretty obvious to me that Boris Johnson is in an "election lockdown" given his daily media appearances. The Brexit supporting media are in full propaganda mode - I don't buy into it but that is what is going on. Maybe the proroguing of Parliament is about a snap GE as much as anything else. I have seen all this before with other PM's but the strategic positioning and media output is unmistakable.
......................................
I agree. I think Boris(Cummings) have war gamed this as a battle between the people v parliament, the elite and judiciary and if any baulk his chosen path he will just announce a GE and challenge Corbyn to the battle. I see no circumstances where Corbyn would not agree
Following that I expect a near SNP whitewash and many London and south based conservatives to lose seats but for the conservatives to make considerable gains off labour in England and Wales but not enough for a majority
The HOC are likely to see a big increase in lib dems, and together with the SNP, and the remains of labour the conservatives could end up in the same position, and dare I say it deadlock again
Not a pretty picture, if I am correct, for any of us
Indeed, this talk about legislating against No Deal plays into his hands in that scenario.
I think the best thing for MPs opposed to No Deal is to remove Boris Johnson from office and install someone else. I would be interested to see if the media would give his successor a fair wind as Johnson is enjoying at the moment. Lets remember Johnson has No Mandate for No Deal and removal from office eliminates the risk...
A GE is the best way to do that. Alternatively the HOC needs to agree on a cadidate to act as interim PM but that means Corbyn being bypassed
It looks as if there are now a few Tory MPs prepared to contemplate supporting Corbyn as a caretaker PM - Kenneth Clarke - Gutto Bebb - possibly Philip Lee. Will we see that list grow in coming days?
It’s interesting if you call him ‘Boris’ you are already psychologically biased towards him. His name is Alexander Boris’s De god knows what Johnson unless you call everybody else by their first names the you are adding to the con trick that Johnson is not what he is but some cuddles brilliant buffoon that can save the U.K. from disaster
James Gordon Brown and Leonard James Callaghan are on the phone. Quite a few people go by a name other than their first forename. Some also do nicknames, as James Jeremy Durham "Paddy" Ashdown can attest.
Also James Harold Wilson - Arthur Neville Chamberlain - James Ramsay Macdonald.
I agree. I think Boris(Cummings) have war gamed this as a battle between the people v parliament, the elite and judiciary and if any baulk his chosen path he will just announce a GE and challenge Corbyn to the battle. I see no circumstances where Corbyn would not agree
Following that I expect a near SNP whitewash and many London and south based conservatives to lose seats but for the conservatives to make considerable gains off labour in England and Wales but not enough for a majority
The HOC are likely to see a big increase in lib dems, and together with the SNP, and the remains of labour the conservatives could end up in the same position,
Indeed, this talk about legislating against No Deal plays into his hands in that scenario.
I think the best thing for MPs opposed to No Deal is to remove Boris Johnson from office and install someone else. I would be interested to see if the media would give his successor a fair wind as Johnson is enjoying at the moment. Lets remember Johnson has No Mandate for No Deal and removal from office eliminates the risk...
That is the one way to ensure Boris wins the subsequent GE with an overwhelming majority.
Are you sure you don't post as HYUFD as well? Removing Johnson from office eliminates No Deal Brexit. Once Johnson is removed he becomes a loser. Little risk of a Marxist led Corbyn Government getting much extreme stuff through the H of C as an alternative Government would be multi-party. You might not agree with it and maybe it would not be stable but I think it takes the ground from under the extremist Johnson/Cummings strategy.
It doesn't, it unites the Leave vote behind Boris with the Remain vote still split
So you admit that Johnson/Cummings have an extremist strategy?!
I agree with TSE. Boris Johnson will be the last Tory leader ever to win a UK election.
Might still be Cameron...
May came first in seats and votes in 2017.
Maybe so but she still lost the election. No Majority, which she had before I hasten to add!
Because a lot of LD supporters decided to vote for Corbyn because they thought he would stop Brexit, despite the fact that he'd always been one of the most Eurosceptic Labour MPs.
As he has been doing...which is why we haven't left. If he hadn't, we would have been gone already.
I agree with TSE. Boris Johnson will be the last Tory leader ever to win a UK election.
Is that because he is going to ban elections and install a 1,000 year Reich?
Too unambitious. He's going to declare Juche and ban all contact with the outside world by censoring the internet and making it impossible to travel except for a moneyed elite. Given the fall in GDP, he's ahead of schedule on the latter part.
I can see a future where, once the UK has left the EU, Labour and the LD's will gut each other out.
No future Tory leader is going to campaign in a GE on a platform of rejoining.
Which will leave Labour and the LD's fighting like rats in a sack over the (20%-30%?) hardcore rejoiners who would actually countenance reopening the wounds from 2016.
Leaving the EU is Kryptonite to Labour but electoral gold to the Tories.
LD's will be somewhere betwixt.
Nature abhors a vacuum. If there is a gap in the market, a political party will fill it. If there aren't the votes, the parties that inhabit that space wither and die.
If the LibDems and Labor (or indeed the Conservatives) fail to move with the times, they will be replaced by parties who size seize the opportunity.
He announced it two days ago but then Adonis is another one of those driven stir crazy by brexit
Taxman said
It is pretty obvious to me that Boris Johnson is in an "election lockdown" given his daily media appearances. The Brexit supporting media are in full propaganda mode - I don't buy into it but that is what is going on. Maybe the proroguing of Parliament is about a snap GE as much as anything else. I have seen all this before with other PM's but the strategic positioning and media output is unmistakable.
......................................
I agree. I think Boris(Cummings) have war gamed this as a battle between the people v parliament, the elite and judiciary and if any baulk his chosen path he will just announce a GE and challenge Corbyn to the battle. I see no circumstances where Corbyn would not agree
Following that I expect a near SNP whitewash and many London and south based conservatives to lose seats but for the conservatives to make considerable gains off labour in England and Wales but not enough for a majority
The HOC are likely to see a big increase in lib dems, and together with the SNP, and the remains of labour the conservatives could end up in the same position, and dare I say it deadlock again
Not a pretty picture, if I am correct, for any of us
Indeed, this talk about legislating against No Deal plays into his hands in that scenario.
I think the best thing for MPs opposed to No Deal is to remove Boris Johnson from office and install someone else. I would be interested to see if the media would give his successor a fair wind as Johnson is enjoying at the moment. Lets remember Johnson has No Mandate for No Deal and removal from office eliminates the risk...
A GE is the best way to do that. Alternatively the HOC needs to agree on a cadidate to act as interim PM but that means Corbyn being bypassed
I also think a GE is the reason Rudd, Javid and Hancock are saying nothing about their previous opposition to Proroguing Parliament. Boris Johnson could decide to abort any GE of course like Gordon Brown but I suspect given his chancer nature he is going to go through with it and it will probably be October.
By the time Parliament reassembles next week 17th October will effectively have become the earliest day for an election - even assuming Corbyn goes along with such a plan.
He announced it two days ago but then Adonis is another one of those driven stir crazy by brexit
Taxman said
It is pretty obvious to me that Boris Johnson is in an "election lockdown" given his daily media appearances. The Brexit supporting media are in full propaganda mode - I don't buy into it but that is what is going on. Maybe the proroguing of Parliament is about a snap GE as much as anything else. I have seen all this before with other PM's but the strategic positioning and media output is unmistakable.
......................................
I agree. I think Boris(Cummings) have war gamed this as a battle between the people v parliament, the elite and judiciary and if any baulk his chosen path he will just announce a GE and challenge Corbyn to the battle. I see no circumstances where Corbyn would not agree
Following that I expect a near SNP whitewash and many London and south based conservatives to lose seats but for the conservatives to make considerable gains off labour in England and Wales but not enough for a majority
The HOC are likely to see a big increase in lib dems, and together with the SNP, and the remains of labour the conservatives could end up in the same position, and dare I say it deadlock again
Not a pretty picture, if I am correct, for any of us
Indeed, this talk about legislating against No Deal plays into his hands in that scenario.
I think the best thing for MPs opposed to No Deal is to remove Boris Johnson from office and install someone else. I would be interested to see if the media would give his successor a fair wind as Johnson is enjoying at the moment. Lets remember Johnson has No Mandate for No Deal and removal from office eliminates the risk...
A GE is the best way to do that. Alternatively the HOC needs to agree on a cadidate to act as interim PM but that means Corbyn being bypassed
It looks as if there are now a few Tory MPs prepared to contemplate supporting Corbyn as a caretaker PM - Kenneth Clarke - Gutto Bebb - possibly Philip Lee. Will we see that list grow in coming days?
No
She is not a Tory , but I could well imagine Lady Hermon following Clarke and Bebb.
Its not enough to know what you're against, you also need something positive you can be in favour of.
That is where the Remainers have failed. They squeal and scream that the public doesn't want a No Deal Brexit, which may be true in isolation, but they don't want anything else either. Just like the Commons. And No Deal is the legal default.
The one thing the country doesn't need and doesn't want is perpetual purgatory so the question to answer before 31 October is what realistic alternative do you want. If Parliament can find a majority for that then extending to get it could be reasonable. If it can't and just wants to kick the can again to avoid making a decision like in March then Boris is right to say no.
But his actions are making an extension inevitable.......you think that is because he is being firm, the reality is he is being utterly cynical and misleading as always. He has no interest in delivering no deal.
I don't believe it and I don't see what alternative course of action would have made it less inevitable.
It would have been inevitable under May for instance.
Well he could:
- deliver a Brexit that has a mandate in parliament - or call an election to get a mandate for his version of Brexit - or change UK red lines, that were not his originally, to negotiate a different deal with the EU
Picking a Brexit that has the support of only about 200 MPs then goading the rest into a VONC and extension is not strength or commitment to a cause but a dereliction of responsibility of office. Sadly he may get rewarded for it at a subsequent GE where he pretends others stopped him.
Plenty of leavers on here will fall for it, and they are far better informed than the leave voting public.
And yet, he could have dropped virtually every one of May's red lines and the Withdrawal Agreement (or particularly the legally binding bits) would probably have looked pretty much identical to the deal on the table. Because, whisper it quietly in case anyone hasn't realised, the Withdrawal Agreement IS NOT THE FINAL OUTCOME OF BREXIT.
And if Labour had just agreed it there would have been plenty of opportunity to redirect Brexit towards a "softer" outcome - whether via using a majority in Parliament for a softer outcome or by taking control of negotiations after an election!
He announced it two days ago but then Adonis is another one of those driven stir crazy by brexit
Taxman said
It is pretty obvious to me that Boris Johnson is in an "election lockdown" given his daily media appearances. The Brexit supporting media are in full propaganda mode - I don't buy into it but that is what is going on. Maybe the proroguing of Parliament is about a snap GE as much as anything else. I have seen all this before with other PM's but the strategic positioning and media output is unmistakable.
......................................
I agree. I think Boris(Cummings) have war gamed this as a battle between the people v parliament, the elite and judiciary and if any baulk his chosen path he will just announce a GE and challenge Corbyn to the battle. I see no circumstances where Corbyn would not agree
Following that I expect a near SNP whitewash and many London and south based conservatives to lose seats but for the conservatives to make considerable gains off labour in England and Wales but not enough for a majority
The HOC are likely to see a big increase in lib dems, and together with the SNP, and the remains of labour the conservatives could end up in the same position, and dare I say it deadlock again
Not a pretty picture, if I am correct, for any of us
Indeed, this talk about legislating against No Deal plays into his hands in that scenario.
I think the best thing for MPs opposed to No Deal is to remove Boris Johnson from office and install someone else. I would be interested to see if the media would give his successor a fair wind as Johnson is enjoying at the moment. Lets remember Johnson has No Mandate for No Deal and removal from office eliminates the risk...
A GE is the best way to do that. Alternatively the HOC needs to agree on a cadidate to act as interim PM but that means Corbyn being bypassed
It looks as if there are now a few Tory MPs prepared to contemplate supporting Corbyn as a caretaker PM - Kenneth Clarke - Gutto Bebb - possibly Philip Lee. Will we see that list grow in coming days?
No
She is not a Tory , but I could well imagine Lady Hermon following Clarke and Bebb.
And putting in IRA supporting Corbyn - really
Anyway there are many independents, the lib dems, and even labour mps who will not vote Corbyn in
He announced it two days ago but then Adonis is another one of those driven stir crazy by brexit
Taxman said
It is pretty obvious to me that Boris Johnson is in an "election lockdown" given his daily media appearances. The Brexit supporting media are in full propaganda mode - I don't buy into it but that is what is going on. Maybe the proroguing of Parliament is about a snap GE as much as anything else. I have seen all this before with other PM's but the strategic positioning and media output is unmistakable.
......................................
I agree. I think Boris(Cummings) have war gamed this as a battle between the people v parliament, the elite and judiciary and if any baulk his chosen path he will just announce a GE and challenge Corbyn to the battle. I see no circumstances where Corbyn would not agree
Following that I expect a near SNP whitewash and many London and south based conservatives to lose seats but for the conservatives to make considerable gains off labour in England and Wales but not enough for a majority
The HOC are likely to see a big increase in lib dems, and together with the SNP, and the remains of labour the conservatives could end up in the same position, and dare I say it deadlock again
Not a pretty picture, if I am correct, for any of us
Indeed, this talk about legislating against No Deal plays into his hands in that scenario.
I think the best thing for MPs opposed to No Deal is to remove Boris Johnson from office and install someone else. I would be interested to see if the media would give his successor a fair wind as Johnson is enjoying at the moment. Lets remember Johnson has No Mandate for No Deal and removal from office eliminates the risk...
A GE is the best way to do that. Alternatively the HOC needs to agree on a cadidate to act as interim PM but that means Corbyn being bypassed
It looks as if there are now a few Tory MPs prepared to contemplate supporting Corbyn as a caretaker PM - Kenneth Clarke - Gutto Bebb - possibly Philip Lee. Will we see that list grow in coming days?
No
I thought Ken Clarke kept saying he was prepared to contemplate Ken Clarke as a caretaker PM. When's he said he would support Corbyn?
Has the very public sacking of Javid's SPAD made it more or less likely other SPADs will continue to undermine the government by leaking to the governments enemies like Hammond do you think?
He announced it two days ago but then Adonis is another one of those driven stir crazy by brexit
Taxman said
It is pretty obvious to me that Boris Johnson is in an "election lockdown" given his daily media appearances. The Brexit supporting media are in full propaganda mode - I don't buy into it but that is what is going on. Maybe the proroguing of Parliament is about a snap GE as much as anything else. I have seen all this before with other PM's but the strategic positioning and media output is unmistakable.
......................................
I agree. I think Boris(Cummings) have war gamed this as a battle between the people v parliament, the elite and judiciary and if any baulk his chosen path he will just announce a GE and challenge Corbyn to the battle. I see no circumstances where Corbyn would not agree
Following that I expect a near SNP whitewash and many London and south based conservatives to lose seats but for the conservatives to make considerable gains off labour in England and Wales but not enough for a majority
The HOC are likely to see a big increase in lib dems, and together with the SNP, and the remains of labour the conservatives could end up in the same position, and dare I say it deadlock again
Not a pretty picture, if I am correct, for any of us
Indeed, this talk about legislating against No Deal plays into his hands in that scenario.
I think the best thing for MPs opposed to No Deal is to remove Boris Johnson from office and install someone else. I would be interested to see if the media would give his successor a fair wind as Johnson is enjoying at the moment. Lets remember Johnson has No Mandate for No Deal and removal from office eliminates the risk...
A GE is the best way to do that. Alternatively the HOC needs to agree on a cadidate to act as interim PM but that means Corbyn being bypassed
It looks as if there are now a few Tory MPs prepared to contemplate supporting Corbyn as a caretaker PM - Kenneth Clarke - Gutto Bebb - possibly Philip Lee. Will we see that list grow in coming days?
No
I thought Ken Clarke kept saying he was prepared to contemplate Ken Clarke as a caretaker PM. When's he said he would support Corbyn?
It looks as if there are now a few Tory MPs prepared to contemplate supporting Corbyn as a caretaker PM - Kenneth Clarke - Gutto Bebb - possibly Philip Lee. Will we see that list grow in coming days?
No
I thought Ken Clarke kept saying he was prepared to contemplate Ken Clarke as a caretaker PM. When's he said he would support Corbyn?
Has the very public sacking of Javid's SPAD made it more or less likely other SPADs will continue to undermine the government by leaking to the governments enemies like Hammond do you think?
I don't think it makes any difference. If someone is going to put their neck on the line being sacked is factored into the risk surely not?
Has the very public sacking of Javid's SPAD made it more or less likely other SPADs will continue to undermine the government by leaking to the governments enemies like Hammond do you think?
What would happen if Javid simply ignored Cummings and announced that this lady is now working for him on a personal basis?
He announced it two days ago but then Adonis is another one of those driven stir crazy by brexit
Taxman said
It is pretty obvious to me that Boris Johnson is in an "election lockdown" given his daily media appearances. The Brexit supporting media are in full propaganda mode - I don't buy into it but that is what is going on. Maybe the proroguing of Parliament is about a snap GE as much as anything else. I have seen all this before with other PM's but the strategic positioning and media output is unmistakable.
......................................
I agree. I think Boris(Cummings) have war gamed this as a battle between the people v parliament, the elite and judiciary and if any baulk his chosen path he will just announce a GE and challenge Corbyn to the battle. I see no circumstances where Corbyn would not agree
Following that I expect a near SNP whitewash and many London and south based conservatives to lose seats but for the conservatives to make considerable gains off labour in England and Wales but not enough for a majority
The HOC are likely to see a big increase in lib dems, and together with the SNP, and the remains of labour the conservatives could end up in the same position, and dare I say it deadlock again
Not a pretty picture, if I am correct, for any of us
Indeed, this talk about legislating against No Deal plays into his hands in that scenario.
I think the best thing for MPs opposed to No Deal is to remove Boris Johnson from office and install someone else. I would be interested to see if the media would give his successor a fair wind as Johnson is enjoying at the moment. Lets remember Johnson has No Mandate for No Deal and removal from office eliminates the risk...
A GE is the best way to do that. Alternatively the HOC needs to agree on a cadidate to act as interim PM but that means Corbyn being bypassed
It looks as if there are now a few Tory MPs prepared to contemplate supporting Corbyn as a caretaker PM - Kenneth Clarke - Gutto Bebb - possibly Philip Lee. Will we see that list grow in coming days?
No
Incredible. The Brexiteers have now created a situation in which Tory MPs and the Financial Times openly advocate the election of a Marxist as PM.
It looks as if there are now a few Tory MPs prepared to contemplate supporting Corbyn as a caretaker PM - Kenneth Clarke - Gutto Bebb - possibly Philip Lee. Will we see that list grow in coming days?
No
I thought Ken Clarke kept saying he was prepared to contemplate Ken Clarke as a caretaker PM. When's he said he would support Corbyn?
It looks as if there are now a few Tory MPs prepared to contemplate supporting Corbyn as a caretaker PM - Kenneth Clarke - Gutto Bebb - possibly Philip Lee. Will we see that list grow in coming days?
No
I thought Ken Clarke kept saying he was prepared to contemplate Ken Clarke as a caretaker PM. When's he said he would support Corbyn?
But to be fair. Are "they" really wrong ? Javid is a patsy. In fact, there are quite a few of them: Rudd, Hancock, Morgan etc. who will endure any humiliation to keep their positions.
It looks as if there are now a few Tory MPs prepared to contemplate supporting Corbyn as a caretaker PM - Kenneth Clarke - Gutto Bebb - possibly Philip Lee. Will we see that list grow in coming days?
No
I thought Ken Clarke kept saying he was prepared to contemplate Ken Clarke as a caretaker PM. When's he said he would support Corbyn?
In this morning's interview with Sky !
There goes my respect for him.
To be fair, he did say that he felt it was unlikely arise , but that he 'probably would be prepared to support Jeremy' as a last resort.
It looks as if there are now a few Tory MPs prepared to contemplate supporting Corbyn as a caretaker PM - Kenneth Clarke - Gutto Bebb - possibly Philip Lee. Will we see that list grow in coming days?
No
Incredible. The Brexiteers have now created a situation in which Tory MPs and the Financial Times openly advocate the election of a Marxist as PM.
The FT has long been pink, but have we any citation for the Tory MPs as hearing different versions of what was said?
He announced it two days ago but then Adonis is another one of those driven stir crazy by brexit
Taxman said
It is pn all this before with other PM's but the strategic positioning and media output is unmistakable.
......................................
I agree. I think Boris(Cummings) have war gamed this as a battle between the people v parliament, the elite and judiciary and if any baulk his chosen path he will just announce a GE and challenge Corbyn to the battle. I see no circumstances where Corbyn would not agree
Following that I expect a near SNP whitewash and many London and south based conservatives to lose seats but for the conservatives to make considerable gains off labour in England and Wales but not enough for a majority
The HOC are likely to see a big increase in lib dems, and together with the SNP, and the remains of labour the conservatives could end up in the same position, and dare I say it deadlock again
Not a pretty picture, if I am correct, for any of us
Indeed, this talk about legislating against No Deal plays into his hands in that scenario.
I think the best thing for MPs opposed to No Deal is to remove Boris Johnson from office and install someone else. I would be interested to see if the media would give his successor a fair wind as Johnson is enjoying at the moment. Lets remember Johnson has No Mandate for No Deal and removal from office eliminates the risk...
A GE is the best way to do that. Alternatively the HOC needs to agree on a cadidate to act as interim PM but that means Corbyn being bypassed
It looks as if there are now a few Tory MPs prepared to contemplate supporting Corbyn as a caretaker PM - Kenneth Clarke - Gutto Bebb - possibly Philip Lee. Will we see that list grow in coming days?
No
I thought Ken Clarke kept saying he was prepared to contemplate Ken Clarke as a caretaker PM. When's he said he would support Corbyn?
He was a bit non-committal about that in the Sky interview.
He thought the question was too speculative but basically felt that whilst it would be difficult to support Corbyn he was coming around to the idea that in extreme circumstances he might countenance the possibility. On the whole though, unlikely.
This is the danger with Cummings. He works on binary questions. Them and us. He knows nowt, and cares less, for internal Tory politics.
Internal Tory politics right now are brutal. We need a resolution and one side must vanquish the other, it is politically kill or be killed.
May's career died because she was impotent and useless. Boris must defeat people like Hammond if he is to have any chance.
You may be right. However, my point was, that Cummings, who has never been a member of any political party, is spectacularly inexperienced and unqualified for such a situation. He simply does not do nuance. May, for all her faults, kept the vast majority of the party together.
It’s interesting if you call him ‘Boris’ you are already psychologically biased towards him. His name is Alexander Boris’s De god knows what Johnson unless you call everybody else by their first names the you are adding to the con trick that Johnson is not what he is but some cuddles brilliant buffoon that can save the U.K. from disaster
James Gordon Brown and Leonard James Callaghan are on the phone. Quite a few people go by a name other than their first forename. Some also do nicknames, as James Jeremy Durham "Paddy" Ashdown can attest.
Also James Harold Wilson - Arthur Neville Chamberlain - James Ramsay Macdonald.
Indeed, and rather well-remembered. I'd forgotten about Wilson, a former President of the Royal Statistical Society. A noble institution, whose annual conference is in Belfast next week and which I might have mentioned. I shall be flying there. On a plane. When I get off the plane I shall stride thru the concourse and all shall love me as they recognise my staggering genius. Or not. I live in expectation...
Incredible. The Brexiteers have now created a situation in which Tory MPs and the Financial Times openly advocate the election of a Marxist as PM.
Not wuite. They are advocating the short-term installation of Corbyn (tow which this LD is opposed). Corbyn would be shackled by the Parliamentary numbers and has only one function - to prevent a No Deal Brexit on 31/10.
I also think the EU will offer another extension - perhaps a year. Boris will obviously refuse (he has no choice). Whether that triggers events leading to a VoNC and/or and election I don't know.
What will be unambiguously clear is we chose to walk out on 31/10.
Has the very public sacking of Javid's SPAD made it more or less likely other SPADs will continue to undermine the government by leaking to the governments enemies like Hammond do you think?
I doubt it’s 10 Downing Street leaking poor old Javid’s bust-up with Johnson.
He announced it two days ago but then Adonis is another one of those driven stir crazy by brexit
Taxman said
It is pretty obvious to me that Boris Johnson is in an "election lockdown" given his daily media appearances. The Brexit supporting media are in full propaganda mode - I don't buy into it but that is what is going on. Maybe the proroguing of Parliament is about a snap GE as much as anything else. I have seen all this before with other PM's but the strategic positioning and media output is unmistakable.
......................................
I agree. I think Boris(Cummings) have war gamed this as a battle between the people v parliament, the elite and judiciary and if any baulk his chosen path he will just announce a GE and challenge Corbyn to the battle. I see no circumstances where Corbyn would not agree
Following that I expect a near SNP whitewash and many London and south based conservatives to lose seats but for the conservatives to make considerable gains off labour in England and Wales but not enough for a majority
The HOC are likely to see a big increase in lib dems, and together with the SNP, and the remains of labour the conservatives could end up in the same position, and dare I say it deadlock again
Not a pretty picture, if I am correct, for any of us
Indeed, this talk about legislating against No Deal plays into his hands in that scenario.
I think the best thing for MPs opposed to No Deal is to remove Boris Johnson from office and install someone else. I would be interested to see if the media would give his successor a fair wind as Johnson is enjoying at the moment. Lets remember Johnson has No Mandate for No Deal and removal from office eliminates the risk...
A GE is the best way to do that. Alternatively the HOC needs to agree on a cadidate to act as interim PM but that means Corbyn being bypassed
It looks as if there are now a few Tory MPs prepared to contemplate supporting Corbyn as a caretaker PM - Kenneth Clarke - Gutto Bebb - possibly Philip Lee. Will we see that list grow in coming days?
No
Incredible. The Brexiteers have now created a situation in which Tory MPs and the Financial Times openly advocate the election of a Marxist as PM.
The FT has history in supporting the left. The Times has been much more supportive of Boris in the last 2 days although it supported Remain.
He announced it two days ago but then Adonis is another one of those driven stir crazy by brexit
Taxman said
It is pn all this before with other PM's but the strategic positioning and media output is unmistakable.
......................................
I agree. I think Boris(Cummings) have war gamed this as a battle between the people v parliament, the elite and judiciary and if any baulk his chosen path he will just announce a GE and challenge Corbyn to the battle. I see no circumstances where Corbyn would not agree
Following that I expect a near SNP whitewash and many London and south based conservatives to lose seats but for the conservatives to make considerable gains off labour in England and Wales but not enough for a majority
The HOC are likely to see a big increase in lib dems, and together with the SNP, and the remains of labour the conservatives could end up in the same position, and dare I say it deadlock again
Not a pretty picture, if I am correct, for any of us
Indeed, this talk about legislating against No Deal plays into his hands in that scenario.
I think the best thing for MPs opposed to No Deal is to remove Boris Johnson from office and install someone else. I would be interested to see if the media would give his successor a fair wind as Johnson is enjoying at the moment. Lets remember Johnson has No Mandate for No Deal and removal from office eliminates the risk...
A GE is the best way to do that. Alternatively the HOC needs to agree on a cadidate to act as interim PM but that means Corbyn being bypassed
It looks as if there are now a few Tory MPs prepared to contemplate supporting Corbyn as a caretaker PM - Kenneth Clarke - Gutto Bebb - possibly Philip Lee. Will we see that list grow in coming days?
No
I thought Ken Clarke kept saying he was prepared to contemplate Ken Clarke as a caretaker PM. When's he said he would support Corbyn?
He was a bit non-committal about that in the Sky interview.
He thought the question was too speculative but basically felt that whilst it would be difficult to support Corbyn he was coming around to the idea that in extreme circumstances he might countenance the possibility. On the whole though, unlikely.
My threads will be the same, based on analysis of betting/polls and whatever tickles my fancy.
Here's how my thread writing approach works
1) Have a punt, base a thread on that
2) Have a pun, base a thread on that
3) Do a thread on what's happening in the world
4) Come up with a thread that will annoy some people
Some of my upcoming threads are based upon / discuss, inter alia, Hawaiian pizzas, AV, and making porn films.
How do you manage the balance in case 1? Clearly you can't say something and have no commitment to it, and also you can't back something hugely and then get your readers to put you into a big profit.
Do you set yourself something like a 24hr rule?
No reason at all that you should care of course - you may just do and write whatever suits you. I suspect though that you have some sort of a self-imposed constraint.
I've once or twice made posts in caps with 'betting post'. I wouldn't post unless I'd actually made that bet, and also that the bet was still available. I'd also not post if I had any intention of betting the other way any time soon.
(This might in itself make an interesting header from you or Mike)
No 24 hour rule, just do a thread on a betting market asap, even if I'm not betting on it, it starts a debate, and sometimes people make a compelling case on why I should bet on it.
ok, but clearly if you don't have a position that way yourself its uncomfortable, equally if you do have then it's front-running, and if you find yourself having precipitated a move the other way then you'll finish up having manipulated the market.
This is the danger with Cummings. He works on binary questions. Them and us. He knows nowt, and cares less, for internal Tory politics.
Internal Tory politics right now are brutal. We need a resolution and one side must vanquish the other, it is politically kill or be killed.
May's career died because she was impotent and useless. Boris must defeat people like Hammond if he is to have any chance.
It may even be part of Johnson's strategy in playing hardball with Parliament: clearly if MPs let him have his way then the hardcore Remainers will be beaten, but if a majority can be assembled to install an alternative PM (and, in my opinion, this is now the only sure way to avert No Deal AND the only viable alternative PM is Corbyn) then any sitting Conservative MP who does it can be instantly deselected.
It's essentially an invitation to any Tory MP who thinks staying in the EU is the first imperative of policy to stand by their principles - and be replaced by a candidate capable of supporting a Brexit manifesto and believing it.
It’s interesting if you call him ‘Boris’ you are already psychologically biased towards him. His name is Alexander Boris’s De god knows what Johnson unless you call everybody else by their first names the you are adding to the con trick that Johnson is not what he is but some cuddles brilliant buffoon that can save the U.K. from disaster
James Gordon Brown and Leonard James Callaghan are on the phone. Quite a few people go by a name other than their first forename. Some also do nicknames, as James Jeremy Durham "Paddy" Ashdown can attest.
Also James Harold Wilson - Arthur Neville Chamberlain - James Ramsay Macdonald.
Indeed, and rather well-remembered. I'd forgotten about Wilson, a former President of the Royal Statistical Society. A noble institution, whose annual conference is in Belfast next week and which I might have mentioned. I shall be flying there. On a plane. When I get off the plane I shall stride thru the concourse and all shall love me as they recognise my staggering genius. Or not. I live in expectation...
But to be fair. Are "they" really wrong ? Javid is a patsy. In fact, there are quite a few of them: Rudd, Hancock, Morgan etc. who will endure any humiliation to keep their positions.
He announced it two days ago but then Adonis is another one of those driven stir crazy by brexit
Taxman said
It is pn all this before with other PM's but the strategic positioning and media output is unmistakable.
Not a pretty picture, if I am correct, for any of us
Indeed, this talk about legislating against No Deal plays into his hands in that scenario.
A GE is the best way to do that. Alternatively the HOC needs to agree on a cadidate to act as interim PM but that means Corbyn being bypassed
It looks as if there are now a few Tory MPs prepared to contemplate supporting Corbyn as a caretaker PM - Kenneth Clarke - Gutto Bebb - possibly Philip Lee. Will we see that list grow in coming days?
No
I thought Ken Clarke kept saying he was prepared to contemplate Ken Clarke as a caretaker PM. When's he said he would support Corbyn?
He was a bit non-committal about that in the Sky interview.
He thought the question was too speculative but basically felt that whilst it would be difficult to support Corbyn he was coming around to the idea that in extreme circumstances he might countenance the possibility. On the whole though, unlikely. &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& Ken Clarke is a really good political operator IMO. He says things in interviews but gives himself a get out clause. I have seen him in countless interviews defuse situations that would sink most of the current Government or Opposition. KC would make a great interim PM!
He announced it two days ago but then Adonis is another one of those driven stir crazy by brexit
Taxman said
It is pretty obvious to me that Boris Johnson is in an "election lockdown" given his daily media appearances. The Brexit supporting media are in full propaganda mode - I don't buy into it but that is what is going on. Maybe the proroguing of Parliament is about a snap GE as much as anything else. I have seen all this before with other PM's but the strategic positioning and media output is unmistakable.
......................................
I agree. I think Boris(Cummings) have war gamed this as a battle between the people v parliament, the elite and judiciary and if any baulk his chosen path he will just announce a GE and challenge Corbyn to the battle. I see no circumstances where Corbyn would not agree
Following that I expect a near SNP whitewash and many London and south based conservatives to lose seats but for the conservatives to make considerable gains off labour in England and Wales but not enough for a majority
The HOC are likely to see a big increase in lib dems, and together with the SNP, and the remains of labour the conservatives could end up in the same position, and dare I say it deadlock again
Not a pretty picture, if I am correct, for any of us
Indeed, this talk about legislating against No Deal plays into his hands in that scenario.
I think the best thing for MPs opposed to No Deal is to remove Boris Johnson from office and install someone else. I would be interested to see if the media would give his successor a fair wind as Johnson is enjoying at the moment. Lets remember Johnson has No Mandate for No Deal and removal from office eliminates the risk...
A GE is the best way to do that. Alternatively the HOC needs to agree on a cadidate to act as interim PM but that means Corbyn being bypassed
It looks as if there are now a few Tory MPs prepared to contemplate supporting Corbyn as a caretaker PM - Kenneth Clarke - Gutto Bebb - possibly Philip Lee. Will we see that list grow in coming days?
No
I thought Ken Clarke kept saying he was prepared to contemplate Ken Clarke as a caretaker PM. When's he said he would support Corbyn?
Last night but it was very vague and it is more likely he would be nominated
Has the very public sacking of Javid's SPAD made it more or less likely other SPADs will continue to undermine the government by leaking to the governments enemies like Hammond do you think?
What would happen if Javid simply ignored Cummings and announced that this lady is now working for him on a personal basis?
She wouldn't get security clearance, which is necessary to get thru the front door.
This is the danger with Cummings. He works on binary questions. Them and us. He knows nowt, and cares less, for internal Tory politics.
Internal Tory politics right now are brutal. We need a resolution and one side must vanquish the other, it is politically kill or be killed.
May's career died because she was impotent and useless. Boris must defeat people like Hammond if he is to have any chance.
You may be right. However, my point was, that Cummings, who has never been a member of any political party, is spectacularly inexperienced and unqualified for such a situation. He simply does not do nuance. May, for all her faults, kept the vast majority of the party together.
Allow me to make myself a bit of a hostage to fortune.
I think Cummings' political genius is vastly exaggerated, and he is a bit of psycho.
Be happy to proved wrong in due course on this one.
This is the danger with Cummings. He works on binary questions. Them and us. He knows nowt, and cares less, for internal Tory politics.
Internal Tory politics right now are brutal. We need a resolution and one side must vanquish the other, it is politically kill or be killed.
May's career died because she was impotent and useless. Boris must defeat people like Hammond if he is to have any chance.
It may even be part of Johnson's strategy in playing hardball with Parliament: clearly if MPs let him have his way then the hardcore Remainers will be beaten, but if a majority can be assembled to install an alternative PM (and, in my opinion, this is now the only sure way to avert No Deal AND the only viable alternative PM is Corbyn) then any sitting Conservative MP who does it can be instantly deselected.
It's essentially an invitation to any Tory MP who thinks staying in the EU is the first imperative of policy to stand by their principles - and be replaced by a candidate capable of supporting a Brexit manifesto and believing it.
Which would be a signal to any Tory voter who wants to stay in the EU.
A while back I got some wine in, as I thought prices would go up and I could either drink it or pretend I was laying it down.
Extra Virgin Olive Oil. Meeks is very concerned about shortages in London.
I have already done that. It wasn't a panic buy as such. Tesco had some crazy offer on a batch of the stuff and I ended up with enough to keep me going for a long while. It's a shame I won't have any tomatoes but there we go. What price freedom, I say! Having the dressing and no salad to put it on is a small sacrifice. Especially if it means Boris can be our prime minister.
This is the danger with Cummings. He works on binary questions. Them and us. He knows nowt, and cares less, for internal Tory politics.
Internal Tory politics right now are brutal. We need a resolution and one side must vanquish the other, it is politically kill or be killed.
May's career died because she was impotent and useless. Boris must defeat people like Hammond if he is to have any chance.
It may even be part of Johnson's strategy in playing hardball with Parliament: clearly if MPs let him have his way then the hardcore Remainers will be beaten, but if a majority can be assembled to install an alternative PM (and, in my opinion, this is now the only sure way to avert No Deal AND the only viable alternative PM is Corbyn) then any sitting Conservative MP who does it can be instantly deselected.
It's essentially an invitation to any Tory MP who thinks staying in the EU is the first imperative of policy to stand by their principles - and be replaced by a candidate capable of supporting a Brexit manifesto and believing it.
What are the chances of Philip Hammond becoming the next leader of the [sensible] Conservatives ?
Comments
https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/1167523737589223424?s=21
I also think a GE is the reason Rudd, Javid and Hancock are saying nothing about their previous opposition to Proroguing Parliament. Boris Johnson could decide to abort any GE of course like Gordon Brown but I suspect given his chancer nature he is going to go through with it and it will probably be October.
What a helmet PM Billy Bunter is. Most people don’t even recognise this risible clown as a leader, including most schoolgirls.
Ireland does (the very high margin) manufacturing. But that actually isn't that high value add, in reality. It wouldn't be hard to do it in Romania or Rotherham. But that's where - according to company and country accounts - the value add happens, with precursors converted to pills for sale.
The reality is that the drug development work - which is more likely to happen in the UK, the US, Sweden or Switzerland - is the real value add product. But that is simply charged "at cost" on company accounts, because why would you want to accrue profits in high tax countries?
That being said, there is also a lot of genuinely very high value add manufacturing that happens there. Intel has three tier one manufacturing facilities in the world, where they do the process R&D that then feeds through to other plants. One is in Ireland.
I don't know exactly how much one should knock off Irish GDP to account for the pharmaceutical type effects. My guess is that if you look at mean family income statistics, they probably give a better idea of what accrues to locals. There you see that Ireland is about 10% above the UK (in 2017), and that feels about right.
That, presumably, will need to include a bit of realism about what cuts they will need to make to public services once the fiscal transfers from London stop, as well as a new idea for what to do about the currency.
EDIT Perhaps it could include London as its capital (another 8 million).
”She has many reasons for resigning, but one is that she can’t sell an agenda she can’t bring herself to believe in. “This ought to give the Tories pause”.
Several issues are expected to rise out of the resignation, with Scottish independence a burning topic that may well take centre stage.
Ms Davidson is a staunch believer of staying in the UK, and had campaigned to remain in her eight years as leader - her resignation may well pave the way for bolstered independence support.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1171700/brexit-latest-news-ruth-davidson-conservative-party-no-deal-eu-exit-scotland-tories/amp
https://twitter.com/terrychristian/status/1167435196796407808?s=21
If a party does not win a majority, it is usually counted as having lost an election. I don't think there is a technical definition like the one LBJ invented about two quarters of negative growth being a recession but generally speaking: No majority in Parliament is not a win! I would not say David Cameron' won' the 2010 election as he had no Majority without teaming up with the LD. He still became PM.
And I should also add that independence, while being very austere, at least has a point.
No future Tory leader is going to campaign in a GE on a platform of rejoining.
Which will leave Labour and the LD's fighting like rats in a sack over the (20%-30%?) hardcore rejoiners who would actually countenance reopening the wounds from 2016.
Leaving the EU is Kryptonite to Labour but electoral gold to the Tories.
LD's will be somewhere betwixt.
Not a good idea.
People keep buying books, and all my mates (early 30s) have moved on. From my experience it’s the ‘middle aged, middle class, politically obsessed never lost anything in their lives’ brigade who seem to be fulminating.
Enjoyed Vern B’s column in the Guardian today. ‘MPs have failed us’ is what I’m hearing on the doorstep.
It looks as if there are now a few Tory MPs prepared to contemplate supporting Corbyn as a caretaker PM - Kenneth Clarke - Gutto Bebb - possibly Philip Lee. Will we see that list grow in coming days?
No
If he hadn't, we would have been gone already.
If the LibDems and Labor (or indeed the Conservatives) fail to move with the times, they will be replaced by parties who size seize the opportunity.
A while back I got some wine in, as I thought prices would go up and I could either drink it or pretend I was laying it down.
By the time Parliament reassembles next week 17th October will effectively have become the earliest day for an election - even assuming Corbyn goes along with such a plan.
That is the country well and truly stuffed ...
She is not a Tory , but I could well imagine Lady Hermon following Clarke and Bebb.
And if Labour had just agreed it there would have been plenty of opportunity to redirect Brexit towards a "softer" outcome - whether via using a majority in Parliament for a softer outcome or by taking control of negotiations after an election!
And putting in IRA supporting Corbyn - really
Anyway there are many independents, the lib dems, and even labour mps who will not vote Corbyn in
I thought Ken Clarke kept saying he was prepared to contemplate Ken Clarke as a caretaker PM. When's he said he would support Corbyn?
He knows nowt, and cares less, for internal Tory politics.
In this morning's interview with Sky !
May's career died because she was impotent and useless. Boris must defeat people like Hammond if he is to have any chance.
Incredible. The Brexiteers have now created a situation in which Tory MPs and the Financial Times openly advocate the election of a Marxist as PM.
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He was a bit non-committal about that in the Sky interview.
He thought the question was too speculative but basically felt that whilst it would be difficult to support Corbyn he was coming around to the idea that in extreme circumstances he might countenance the possibility. On the whole though, unlikely.
He simply does not do nuance. May, for all her faults, kept the vast majority of the party together.
I also think the EU will offer another extension - perhaps a year. Boris will obviously refuse (he has no choice). Whether that triggers events leading to a VoNC and/or and election I don't know.
What will be unambiguously clear is we chose to walk out on 31/10.
The FT has history in supporting the left. The Times has been much more supportive of Boris in the last 2 days although it supported Remain.
He was a bit non-committal about that in the Sky interview.
He thought the question was too speculative but basically felt that whilst it would be difficult to support Corbyn he was coming around to the idea that in extreme circumstances he might countenance the possibility. On the whole though, unlikely.
He certainly used the word 'probably'!
it's just plain awkward.
It's essentially an invitation to any Tory MP who thinks staying in the EU is the first imperative of policy to stand by their principles - and be replaced by a candidate capable of supporting a Brexit manifesto and believing it.
He was a bit non-committal about that in the Sky interview.
He thought the question was too speculative but basically felt that whilst it would be difficult to support Corbyn he was coming around to the idea that in extreme circumstances he might countenance the possibility. On the whole though, unlikely.
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Ken Clarke is a really good political operator IMO. He says things in interviews but gives himself a get out clause. I have seen him in countless interviews defuse situations that would sink most of the current Government or Opposition. KC would make a great interim PM!
Last night but it was very vague and it is more likely he would be nominated
What an arsehole !
He'll be gone before too long.
https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1167536133468807174
I think Cummings' political genius is vastly exaggerated, and he is a bit of psycho.
Be happy to proved wrong in due course on this one.
As for Corbyn, with the appropriate shackles, he could do the same job though without Clarke's style.
As to how Johnson and the other No Dealers respond if and when the caretaker Government gets the extension voted through the Commons, we'll see.