politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This is not a government with any real support for its approac

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This is not a government with any real support for its approach and main policy

The unelected PM without a mandate has a big credibility problem https://t.co/TMrSpjOb3v

Read the full story here

eek

First unlike the Tories in the next election

The_Taxman

Boris Johnson is a mandateless Maniac!

dixiedean

Third? And, yes, that is my take on the future too. HYUFD gets his 4 in a row though.
So that's all right.

Anabobazina

Boris IS Billy Bunter on high-strength acid, and I claim my PB.com chequebook and pen.

Gardenwalker

No one in their right mind would trust Boris.

They might like him, they might even admire him. But trust?

Philip_Thompson

Its not enough to know what you're against, you also need something positive you can be in favour of.

That is where the Remainers have failed. They squeal and scream that the public doesn't want a No Deal Brexit, which may be true in isolation, but they don't want anything else either. Just like the Commons. And No Deal is the legal default.

The one thing the country doesn't need and doesn't want is perpetual purgatory so the question to answer before 31 October is what realistic alternative do you want. If Parliament can find a majority for that then extending to get it could be reasonable. If it can't and just wants to kick the can again to avoid making a decision like in March then Boris is right to say no.

edmundintokyo

What I want to know is who are the 13% who think Boris is totally shutting down parliament so he can pass more legislation about the NHS, and the whole Brexit thing is just one of those wild coincidences.

noneoftheabove

Philip_Thompson said:

Its not enough to know what you're against, you also need something positive you can be in favour of.

That is where the Remainers have failed. They squeal and scream that the public doesn't want a No Deal Brexit, which may be true in isolation, but they don't want anything else either. Just like the Commons. And No Deal is the legal default.

The one thing the country doesn't need and doesn't want is perpetual purgatory so the question to answer before 31 October is what realistic alternative do you want. If Parliament can find a majority for that then extending to get it could be reasonable. If it can't and just wants to kick the can again to avoid making a decision like in March then Boris is right to say no.

But his actions are making an extension inevitable.......you think that is because he is being firm, the reality is he is being utterly cynical and misleading as always. He has no interest in delivering no deal.

OnlyLivingBoy

Gardenwalker said:

No one in their right mind would trust Boris.

They might like him, they might even admire him. But trust?

I trust him to fuck this up.

Philip_Thompson

noneoftheabove said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Its not enough to know what you're against, you also need something positive you can be in favour of.

That is where the Remainers have failed. They squeal and scream that the public doesn't want a No Deal Brexit, which may be true in isolation, but they don't want anything else either. Just like the Commons. And No Deal is the legal default.

The one thing the country doesn't need and doesn't want is perpetual purgatory so the question to answer before 31 October is what realistic alternative do you want. If Parliament can find a majority for that then extending to get it could be reasonable. If it can't and just wants to kick the can again to avoid making a decision like in March then Boris is right to say no.

But his actions are making an extension inevitable.......you think that is because he is being firm, the reality is he is being utterly cynical and misleading as always. He has no interest in delivering no deal.

I don't believe it and I don't see what alternative course of action would have made it less inevitable.

It would have been inevitable under May for instance.

AlastairMeeks

I note that, again, the unweighted Ipsos-MORI poll hugely oversampled Remainers - they made up nearly 57% of the sample of those who say they voted. Even after weighting they comprised a majority of respondents who say they voted in the referendum.

nichomar

Having been out for sundown drinks where as the 65 year old youngster by seven years who has tried not to poison social conversation by discussing brexit have just been savaged by nine extremely well off self satisfied U.K. immigrants into Spain to have dared to suggest that MP s are doing their jobs to represent the interests of their constituents not their views. They Han never heard of Erskin May didn’t understand the backstop and thought ‘’Boris’ was the new messiah the only saving grace is they no longer have a vote. After 40 years of a diet of daily mail lies there is no arguing with them.

stodge

Evening all

Boris was far from a certainty to win the Conservative leadership until the ComRes poll on June 12th which showed him winning 395 seats for the Conservatives and a landslide whereas all the other candidates were either making no headway or losing seats.

As soon as he looked the only winner, he was.

OnlyLivingBoy

edmundintokyo said:

What I want to know is who are the 13% who think Boris is totally shutting down parliament so he can pass more legislation about the NHS, and the whole Brexit thing is just one of those wild coincidences.

This just tells you that a quarter of respondents didn't understand the question and chose an answer at random.

nichomar

AlastairMeeks said:

I note that, again, the unweighted Ipsos-MORI poll hugely oversampled Remainers - they made up nearly 57% of the sample of those who say they voted. Even after weighting they comprised a majority of respondents who say they voted in the referendum.

Are they struggling to find leavers? Have they died?

MarqueeMark

OnlyLivingBoy said:

edmundintokyo said:

What I want to know is who are the 13% who think Boris is totally shutting down parliament so he can pass more legislation about the NHS, and the whole Brexit thing is just one of those wild coincidences.

This just tells you that a quarter of respondents didn't understand the question and chose an answer at random.

Or the new national pastime is taking the piss out of pollsters....

noneoftheabove

Philip_Thompson said:

noneoftheabove said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Its not enough to know what you're against, you also need something positive you can be in favour of.

That is where the Remainers have failed. They squeal and scream that the public doesn't want a No Deal Brexit, which may be true in isolation, but they don't want anything else either. Just like the Commons. And No Deal is the legal default.

The one thing the country doesn't need and doesn't want is perpetual purgatory so the question to answer before 31 October is what realistic alternative do you want. If Parliament can find a majority for that then extending to get it could be reasonable. If it can't and just wants to kick the can again to avoid making a decision like in March then Boris is right to say no.

But his actions are making an extension inevitable.......you think that is because he is being firm, the reality is he is being utterly cynical and misleading as always. He has no interest in delivering no deal.

I don't believe it and I don't see what alternative course of action would have made it less inevitable.

It would have been inevitable under May for instance.

Well he could:

- deliver a Brexit that has a mandate in parliament
- or call an election to get a mandate for his version of Brexit
- or change UK red lines, that were not his originally, to negotiate a different deal with the EU

Picking a Brexit that has the support of only about 200 MPs then goading the rest into a VONC and extension is not strength or commitment to a cause but a dereliction of responsibility of office. Sadly he may get rewarded for it at a subsequent GE where he pretends others stopped him.

Plenty of leavers on here will fall for it, and they are far better informed than the leave voting public.

AlastairMeeks

nichomar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I note that, again, the unweighted Ipsos-MORI poll hugely oversampled Remainers - they made up nearly 57% of the sample of those who say they voted. Even after weighting they comprised a majority of respondents who say they voted in the referendum.

Are they struggling to find leavers? Have they died?

It’s a real conundrum. I ought to do a thread header on it when I find time.

algarkirk

noneoftheabove said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Its not enough to know what you're against, you also need something positive you can be in favour of.

That is where the Remainers have failed. They squeal and scream that the public doesn't want a No Deal Brexit, which may be true in isolation, but they don't want anything else either. Just like the Commons. And No Deal is the legal default.

The one thing the country doesn't need and doesn't want is perpetual purgatory so the question to answer before 31 October is what realistic alternative do you want. If Parliament can find a majority for that then extending to get it could be reasonable. If it can't and just wants to kick the can again to avoid making a decision like in March then Boris is right to say no.

But his actions are making an extension inevitable.......you think that is because he is being firm, the reality is he is being utterly cynical and misleading as always. He has no interest in delivering no deal.

If Boris has no interest in delivering No Deal then as a negotiator the time to make that clear would be sometime in the last week of October. I agree with everything Philip Thompson says here.

Black_Rook

Inevitably, given the circumstances, the Scots Nats keep banging on about independence even more than usual. Except that one could argue that they're approaching the current situation the wrong way around.

If only they could persuade England and Wales to declare independence from the UK instead, it would solve practically everything

Omnium

I'm continually baffled as to how Corbyn's approval ratings fail to undermine the Labour vote more extensively. It's not as though the rest of the Labour front-bench are doing a stellar job to counter-balance (slightly the opposite in fact).

Swinson needs to find something. I wonder if the LDs would be better served just by having a policy of abstain and then rejoin.

noneoftheabove

algarkirk said:

noneoftheabove said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Its not enough to know what you're against, you also need something positive you can be in favour of.

That is where the Remainers have failed. They squeal and scream that the public doesn't want a No Deal Brexit, which may be true in isolation, but they don't want anything else either. Just like the Commons. And No Deal is the legal default.

The one thing the country doesn't need and doesn't want is perpetual purgatory so the question to answer before 31 October is what realistic alternative do you want. If Parliament can find a majority for that then extending to get it could be reasonable. If it can't and just wants to kick the can again to avoid making a decision like in March then Boris is right to say no.

But his actions are making an extension inevitable.......you think that is because he is being firm, the reality is he is being utterly cynical and misleading as always. He has no interest in delivering no deal.

If Boris has no interest in delivering No Deal then as a negotiator the time to make that clear would be sometime in the last week of October. I agree with everything Philip Thompson says here.

We are negotiating in public, as a divided nation of course we have a strategic weakness against the EU who are acting as one.

Leavers treating remainers who accept virtually any Brexit deal as "diehard remainers" and "traitors" is not helping strenghten the UK negotiating position but weakens it.

Omnium

nichomar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I note that, again, the unweighted Ipsos-MORI poll hugely oversampled Remainers - they made up nearly 57% of the sample of those who say they voted. Even after weighting they comprised a majority of respondents who say they voted in the referendum.

Are they struggling to find leavers? Have they died?

There's probably some sort of bias in that I imagine the people asking the questions tend to be young, and there may even be quite a few foreign accents. Might just be some degree of not offending the pollsters feelings. (This is in no way linked to my campaign for more jobs for retired Colonels.)

Black_Rook

Omnium said:

I'm continually baffled as to how Corbyn's approval ratings fail to undermine the Labour vote more extensively. It's not as though the rest of the Labour front-bench are doing a stellar job to counter-balance (slightly the opposite in fact).

Robot voters. A considerable percentage of the electorate would still back Labour or the Tories even if they were led by genocidal maniacs who promised to sacrifice everyone who voted for them to Satan.

noneoftheabove

Omnium said:

I'm continually baffled as to how Corbyn's approval ratings fail to undermine the Labour vote more extensively. It's not as though the rest of the Labour front-bench are doing a stellar job to counter-balance (slightly the opposite in fact).

Swinson needs to find something. I wonder if the LDs would be better served just by having a policy of abstain and then rejoin.

Labour votes will be mostly made up of:

Pro Corbyn voters
Always vote Labour
Anti Tory voters

Hard to see any of those blocks going much below 6%, Labour are close to their floor unless they divide into two.

not_on_fire

I’d love to meet the 13% who believe Bozo’s reasons for prorogation. One suspects many are in the process of handing their life savings over to a Nigerian princd

nichomar

AlastairMeeks said:

nichomar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I note that, again, the unweighted Ipsos-MORI poll hugely oversampled Remainers - they made up nearly 57% of the sample of those who say they voted. Even after weighting they comprised a majority of respondents who say they voted in the referendum.

Are they struggling to find leavers? Have they died?

It’s a real conundrum. I ought to do a thread header on it when I find time.

It actually was a genuine question that unfortunately comes over rather cynically which I raised a few weeks ago, how do you see the impact of the up weighting? of leave voters impacting the results? From a none statistical view it appears that we are now grossly over representing the opinion of leave voters.

HYUFD

Boris has a higher net satisfaction rating than Corbyn, Swinson and Farage so is likely to win an autumn general election and the polling shows less than 50% still outright opposed to No Deal (and of course Boris still wants a Deal with a technical solution for the Irish border replacing the backstop anyway).

If Boris matches Major's 1992 win in the autumn it will be a historic Tory triumph, only the 2nd time in the last 100 years a party has got a 4th consecutive term in office. Given no PM since Lord Liverpool has won a 5th consecutive term for his party (and that was pre Reform Act) Deal or No Deal I cannot see the Tories stretching the elastic further than one more general election win and Corbyn is certainly a help on that front (with Corbyn having a 26% lower net approval rating than Jo Swinson it looks likely the LDs will get closer to Labour than Labour does to the Tories while Corbyn remains Leader of the Opposition)

nichomar

HYUFD said:

Boris has a higher net satisfaction rating than Corbyn, Swinson and Farage so is likely to win an autumn general election and the polling shows less than 50% still outright opposed to No Deal (and of course Boris still wants a Deal with a technical solution for the Irish border replacing the backstop anyway).

If Boris matches Major's 1992 win it will be historic Tory triumph, only the 2nd time in the last 100 years a party has got a 4th term in office. Given no PM since Lord Liverpool has won a 5th term for his party (and that was pre Reform Act) Deal or No Deal I cannot see the Tories stretching the elastic further thsn one more general election win and Corbyn is certainly a help on that front

As long as the blue team wins what else matters

eek

nichomar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

nichomar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I note that, again, the unweighted Ipsos-MORI poll hugely oversampled Remainers - they made up nearly 57% of the sample of those who say they voted. Even after weighting they comprised a majority of respondents who say they voted in the referendum.

Are they struggling to find leavers? Have they died?

It’s a real conundrum. I ought to do a thread header on it when I find time.

It actually was a genuine question that unfortunately comes over rather cynically which I raised a few weeks ago, how do you see the impact of the up weighting? of leave voters impacting the results? From a none statistical view it appears that we are now grossly over representing the opinion of leave voters.

My question is why can't the pollsters find leave voters? Is it death, false memory, denial or simply lack of identification.

Gallowgate

eek said:

nichomar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

nichomar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I note that, again, the unweighted Ipsos-MORI poll hugely oversampled Remainers - they made up nearly 57% of the sample of those who say they voted. Even after weighting they comprised a majority of respondents who say they voted in the referendum.

Are they struggling to find leavers? Have they died?

It’s a real conundrum. I ought to do a thread header on it when I find time.

It actually was a genuine question that unfortunately comes over rather cynically which I raised a few weeks ago, how do you see the impact of the up weighting? of leave voters impacting the results? From a none statistical view it appears that we are now grossly over representing the opinion of leave voters.

My question is why can't the pollsters find leave voters? Is it death, false memory, denial or simply lack of identification.

Especially considering there’s no end to them on Twitter and Facebook.

nichomar

eek said:

nichomar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

nichomar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I note that, again, the unweighted Ipsos-MORI poll hugely oversampled Remainers - they made up nearly 57% of the sample of those who say they voted. Even after weighting they comprised a majority of respondents who say they voted in the referendum.

Are they struggling to find leavers? Have they died?

It’s a real conundrum. I ought to do a thread header on it when I find time.

It actually was a genuine question that unfortunately comes over rather cynically which I raised a few weeks ago, how do you see the impact of the up weighting? of leave voters impacting the results? From a none statistical view it appears that we are now grossly over representing the opinion of leave voters.

My question is why can't the pollsters find leave voters? Is it death, false memory, denial or simply lack of identification.

Well from my experience (unfortunately very personal) false memory may pLay a part

Omnium

noneoftheabove said:

Omnium said:

I'm continually baffled as to how Corbyn's approval ratings fail to undermine the Labour vote more extensively. It's not as though the rest of the Labour front-bench are doing a stellar job to counter-balance (slightly the opposite in fact).

Swinson needs to find something. I wonder if the LDs would be better served just by having a policy of abstain and then rejoin.

Labour votes will be mostly made up of:

Pro Corbyn voters
Always vote Labour
Anti Tory voters

Hard to see any of those blocks going much below 6%, Labour are close to their floor unless they divide into two.

Yes, I'm sure you're right, and baffled wasn't perhaps the right word. I'd imagine that the 'always vote Labour' demographic is getting eaten away at a little.
However Corbyn is the sort of politician that might turn it around. God help us if he does, obviously, but he clearly will hang on terrier-like whatever happens.

HYUFD

Omnium said:

I'm continually baffled as to how Corbyn's approval ratings fail to undermine the Labour vote more extensively. It's not as though the rest of the Labour front-bench are doing a stellar job to counter-balance (slightly the opposite in fact).

Swinson needs to find something. I wonder if the LDs would be better served just by having a policy of abstain and then rejoin.

The LDs are just 1% behind Labour in the latest Yougov while Labour are 11% behind the Tories

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1167430545908871168?s=20

dixiedean

noneoftheabove said:

Omnium said:

I'm continually baffled as to how Corbyn's approval ratings fail to undermine the Labour vote more extensively. It's not as though the rest of the Labour front-bench are doing a stellar job to counter-balance (slightly the opposite in fact).

Swinson needs to find something. I wonder if the LDs would be better served just by having a policy of abstain and then rejoin.

Labour votes will be mostly made up of:

Pro Corbyn voters
Always vote Labour
Anti Tory voters

Hard to see any of those blocks going much below 6%, Labour are close to their floor unless they divide into two.

Anti Tory voters don't automatically vote Labour. This one doesn't anyways.

MarqueeMark

noneoftheabove said:

algarkirk said:

noneoftheabove said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Its not enough to know what you're against, you also need something positive you can be in favour of.

That is where the Remainers have failed. They squeal and scream that the public doesn't want a No Deal Brexit, which may be true in isolation, but they don't want anything else either. Just like the Commons. And No Deal is the legal default.

The one thing the country doesn't need and doesn't want is perpetual purgatory so the question to answer before 31 October is what realistic alternative do you want. If Parliament can find a majority for that then extending to get it could be reasonable. If it can't and just wants to kick the can again to avoid making a decision like in March then Boris is right to say no.

But his actions are making an extension inevitable.......you think that is because he is being firm, the reality is he is being utterly cynical and misleading as always. He has no interest in delivering no deal.

If Boris has no interest in delivering No Deal then as a negotiator the time to make that clear would be sometime in the last week of October. I agree with everything Philip Thompson says here.

We are negotiating in public, as a divided nation of course we have a strategic weakness against the EU who are acting as one.

Leavers treating remainers who accept virtually any Brexit deal as "diehard remainers" and "traitors" is not helping strenghten the UK negotiating position but weakens it.

Remainers sitting on the same side of the negotiating table as the EU is not helping strengthen the UK negotiating position.

Idiots.

Gallowgate

MarqueeMark said:

noneoftheabove said:

algarkirk said:

noneoftheabove said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Its not enough to know what you're against, you also need something positive you can be in favour of.

That is where the Remainers have failed. They squeal and scream that the public doesn't want a No Deal Brexit, which may be true in isolation, but they don't want anything else either. Just like the Commons. And No Deal is the legal default.

The one thing the country doesn't need and doesn't want is perpetual purgatory so the question to answer before 31 October is what realistic alternative do you want. If Parliament can find a majority for that then extending to get it could be reasonable. If it can't and just wants to kick the can again to avoid making a decision like in March then Boris is right to say no.

But his actions are making an extension inevitable.......you think that is because he is being firm, the reality is he is being utterly cynical and misleading as always. He has no interest in delivering no deal.

If Boris has no interest in delivering No Deal then as a negotiator the time to make that clear would be sometime in the last week of October. I agree with everything Philip Thompson says here.

We are negotiating in public, as a divided nation of course we have a strategic weakness against the EU who are acting as one.

Leavers treating remainers who accept virtually any Brexit deal as "diehard remainers" and "traitors" is not helping strenghten the UK negotiating position but weakens it.

Remainers sitting on the same side of the negotiating table as the EU is not helping strengthen the UK negotiating position.

Idiots.

We are EU citizens. They are us. They are not the enemy.

nichomar

MarqueeMark said:

noneoftheabove said:

algarkirk said:

noneoftheabove said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Its not enough to know what you're against, you also need something positive you can be in favour of.

That is where the Remainers have failed. They squeal and scream that the public doesn't want a No Deal Brexit, which may be true in isolation, but they don't want anything else either. Just like the Commons. And No Deal is the legal default.

The one thing the country doesn't need and doesn't want is perpetual purgatory so the question to answer before 31 October is what realistic alternative do you want. If Parliament can find a majority for that then extending to get it could be reasonable. If it can't and just wants to kick the can again to avoid making a decision like in March then Boris is right to say no.

But his actions are making an extension inevitable.......you think that is because he is being firm, the reality is he is being utterly cynical and misleading as always. He has no interest in delivering no deal.

If Boris has no interest in delivering No Deal then as a negotiator the time to make that clear would be sometime in the last week of October. I agree with everything Philip Thompson says here.

We are negotiating in public, as a divided nation of course we have a strategic weakness against the EU who are acting as one.

Leavers treating remainers who accept virtually any Brexit deal as "diehard remainers" and "traitors" is not helping strenghten the UK negotiating position but weakens it.

Remainers sitting on the same side of the negotiating table as the EU is not helping strengthen the UK negotiating position.

Idiots.

Ok let’s hear your solution to the NI border please

williamglenn

MarqueeMark said:

noneoftheabove said:

algarkirk said:

noneoftheabove said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Its not enough to know what you're against, you also need something positive you can be in favour of.

That is where the Remainers have failed. They squeal and scream that the public doesn't want a No Deal Brexit, which may be true in isolation, but they don't want anything else either. Just like the Commons. And No Deal is the legal default.

The one thing the country doesn't need and doesn't want is perpetual purgatory so the question to answer before 31 October is what realistic alternative do you want. If Parliament can find a majority for that then extending to get it could be reasonable. If it can't and just wants to kick the can again to avoid making a decision like in March then Boris is right to say no.

But his actions are making an extension inevitable.......you think that is because he is being firm, the reality is he is being utterly cynical and misleading as always. He has no interest in delivering no deal.

If Boris has no interest in delivering No Deal then as a negotiator the time to make that clear would be sometime in the last week of October. I agree with everything Philip Thompson says here.

We are negotiating in public, as a divided nation of course we have a strategic weakness against the EU who are acting as one.

Leavers treating remainers who accept virtually any Brexit deal as "diehard remainers" and "traitors" is not helping strenghten the UK negotiating position but weakens it.

Remainers sitting on the same side of the negotiating table as the EU is not helping strengthen the UK negotiating position.

Idiots.

Boris Johnson says our trump card is No Deal, and also that Remainers are making No Deal more likely, ergo Remainers are helping the UK negotiating position.

noneoftheabove

eek said:

nichomar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

nichomar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I note that, again, the unweighted Ipsos-MORI poll hugely oversampled Remainers - they made up nearly 57% of the sample of those who say they voted. Even after weighting they comprised a majority of respondents who say they voted in the referendum.

Are they struggling to find leavers? Have they died?

It’s a real conundrum. I ought to do a thread header on it when I find time.

It actually was a genuine question that unfortunately comes over rather cynically which I raised a few weeks ago, how do you see the impact of the up weighting? of leave voters impacting the results? From a none statistical view it appears that we are now grossly over representing the opinion of leave voters.

My question is why can't the pollsters find leave voters? Is it death, false memory, denial or simply lack of identification.

Death, false memory, denial are bound to be factors.

On the opposite side I am sure there are plenty telling pollsters they voted remain, when they perhaps supported remain but couldnt be bothered to vote.

ab195

not_on_fire said:

I’d love to meet the 13% who believe Bozo’s reasons for prorogation. One suspects many are in the process of handing their life savings over to a Nigerian princd

I always wonder if there’s been research into how these questions get perceived. They might answer it “of course I believe him (nudge, nudge, wink, wink)”.

AndyJS

The_Taxman said:

Boris Johnson is a mandateless Maniac!

Aren't you talking about Dominic Cummings?

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1167431656896114688?s=20

Gallowgate

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1167431656896114688?s=20

Good job the Commons are legislating then isn’t it.

nichomar

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1167431656896114688?s=20

So can you now give us some expert analysis about how what is actually a statistical tie means anything in the real world

AndyJS

O/T

Dr Anthony Daniels discusses the opioid problem in America.


"In 1980, a letter was published in the New England Journal of Medicine stating, quite correctly, that patients prescribed opiates such as morphine in hospital for acute, serious pain did not become addicts once they left hospital. This was important, because American doctors at the time were reluctant to prescribe such drugs even to patients for whom they were indicated for fear of turning them into addicts. Thus opiates were denied to those dying in severe pain, a cruel absurdity.

The letter had unintended and unforeseen consequences. It was used, more than a decade and a half later, to justify the prescription of strong synthetic or semi-synthetic opioids to patients suffering from chronic backache or arthralgia. Even minimally experienced doctors should have been able to distinguish between patients with acute pain and chronic pain. They should have been able to recognize that the two are very distinct; but, for a number of reasons, many American doctors failed to do so. This failure helped to turn the United States into by far the largest consumer of opioids per capita in the world. "

https://www.lawliberty.org/2019/06/13/opioids-in-america-signs-and-symptoms-of-malfeasance/

Gallowgate

This guy. What a twat.

https://twitter.com/steven_swinford/status/1167494772031926272?s=21

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/darranmarshall/status/1167499131524440070?s=21

noneoftheabove

I would like to see polls offering people the chance to indicate either pro a party or anti a party (one option which reflects their most likely vote). The assumption that people vote for their favourite party has never been accurate but given the heavily negative leader ratings across the board, it has probably never been more wrong.

How fluid the Lab/LD/Green vote is in opposing the Tories is what will decide the next PM.

ab195

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1167431656896114688?s=20

So can you now give us some expert analysis about how what is actually a statistical tie means anything in the real world

I’m just fascinated how anyone could not have a view on that question.

nichomar

Gallowgate said:

This guy. What a twat.

https://twitter.com/steven_swinford/status/1167494772031926272?s=21

Is this real? If it is..... but it must be fake news the U.K. hasn’t sunk to such lows!

FF43

AlastairMeeks said:

nichomar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I note that, again, the unweighted Ipsos-MORI poll hugely oversampled Remainers - they made up nearly 57% of the sample of those who say they voted. Even after weighting they comprised a majority of respondents who say they voted in the referendum.

Are they struggling to find leavers? Have they died?

It’s a real conundrum. I ought to do a thread header on it when I find time.

Potentially relevant

https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1164125817498218496

Gallowgate

FF43 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

nichomar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I note that, again, the unweighted Ipsos-MORI poll hugely oversampled Remainers - they made up nearly 57% of the sample of those who say they voted. Even after weighting they comprised a majority of respondents who say they voted in the referendum.

Are they struggling to find leavers? Have they died?

It’s a real conundrum. I ought to do a thread header on it when I find time.

Potentially relevant

https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1164125817498218496

YouGov will have records of every time a particular person has answered a question and will be able to identify false recall surely?

AndyJS

"Dominic Cummings's Blog

The Hollow Men II: Some reflections on Westminster and Whitehall dysfunction"

https://dominiccummings.com/2014/10/30/the-hollow-men-ii-some-reflections-on-westminster-and-whitehall-dysfunction/

AramintaMoonbeamQC

Gallowgate said:

This guy. What a twat.

https://twitter.com/steven_swinford/status/1167494772031926272?s=21

Seems to think The Thick Of It was a docu-soap. Gobshite.

noneoftheabove

FF43 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

nichomar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I note that, again, the unweighted Ipsos-MORI poll hugely oversampled Remainers - they made up nearly 57% of the sample of those who say they voted. Even after weighting they comprised a majority of respondents who say they voted in the referendum.

Are they struggling to find leavers? Have they died?

It’s a real conundrum. I ought to do a thread header on it when I find time.

Potentially relevant

https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1164125817498218496

Accounting for false recall makes sense in theory. But how do they manage differential turnout?

If in 2016 leave voters were more motivated but at the next GE remain voters are more motivated it would presumably be a mistake to account for the false recall?

JBriskinindyref2

At least we all knew where we stood with tory boy TSE. What's TSE 2.0 playing at?

gordonBrooker

Does anyone fancy explaining to HYUFD how it isn't really a 'historic' fourth term when they've only had two years of majority government to date (and only 9 including coalitions[yes it feels a lot longer I know])? Or is that a thankless task? Don't answer that.

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1167493371973255170?s=20

nichomar

JBriskinindyref2 said:

At least we all knew where we stood with tory boy TSE. What's TSE 2.0 playing at?

What the fuck are you talking about?

HYUFD

gordonBrooker said:

Does anyone fancy explaining to HYUFD how it isn't really a 'historic' fourth term when they've only had two years of majority government to date (and only 9 including coalitions)? Or is that a thankless task? Don't answer that.

Only 1 party has stayed in office for 4 consecutive terms since 1832, Major's Tories, majority or no majority

JBriskinindyref2

nichomar said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

At least we all knew where we stood with tory boy TSE. What's TSE 2.0 playing at?

What the fuck are you talking about?

TSE's quit the tory party. It will be interesting to see how this affects his Threads.

Gallowgate

HYUFD said:

gordonBrooker said:

Does anyone fancy explaining to HYUFD how it isn't really a 'historic' fourth term when they've only had two years of majority government to date (and only 9 including coalitions)? Or is that a thankless task? Don't answer that.

Only 1 party has stayed in office for 4 consecutive terms since 1832, Major's Tories, majority or no majority

Boring.

ralphmalph

Gallowgate said:

This guy. What a twat.

https://twitter.com/steven_swinford/status/1167494772031926272?s=21

I had a flashback to The Downing Street Years and Brown lining his three spads up and delivering the immortal lines of "You are a xxxx", "You are an even bigger xxxx" and finally "You are the biggest xxxx off all."

What a PM.

viewcode

MarqueeMark said:

noneoftheabove said:

algarkirk said:

noneoftheabove said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Its not enough to know what you're against, you also need something positive you can be in favour of.

That is where the Remainers have failed. They squeal and scream that the public doesn't want a No Deal Brexit, which may be true in isolation, but they don't want anything else either. Just like the Commons. And No Deal is the legal default.

The one thing the country doesn't need and doesn't want is perpetual purgatory so the question to answer before 31 October is what realistic alternative do you want. If Parliament can find a majority for that then extending to get it could be reasonable. If it can't and just wants to kick the can again to avoid making a decision like in March then Boris is right to say no.

But his actions are making an extension inevitable.......you think that is because he is being firm, the reality is he is being utterly cynical and misleading as always. He has no interest in delivering no deal.

If Boris has no interest in delivering No Deal then as a negotiator the time to make that clear would be sometime in the last week of October. I agree with everything Philip Thompson says here.

We are negotiating in public, as a divided nation of course we have a strategic weakness against the EU who are acting as one.

Leavers treating remainers who accept virtually any Brexit deal as "diehard remainers" and "traitors" is not helping strenghten the UK negotiating position but weakens it.

Remainers sitting on the same side of the negotiating table as the EU is not helping strengthen the UK negotiating position.

Idiots.

But they're not at the negotiating table.

gordonBrooker

HYUFD said:

gordonBrooker said:

Does anyone fancy explaining to HYUFD how it isn't really a 'historic' fourth term when they've only had two years of majority government to date (and only 9 including coalitions)? Or is that a thankless task? Don't answer that.

Only 1 party has stayed in office for 4 consecutive terms since 1832, Major's Tories, majority or no majority

In your completely hypothetical scenario, two of those 'terms' would be two years long and none of them thus far were with a proper working majority. Let's just say I don't think anyone except those trying to creep into certain human crevices will be using the word 'historic'.

nichomar

JBriskinindyref2 said:

nichomar said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

At least we all knew where we stood with tory boy TSE. What's TSE 2.0 playing at?

What the fuck are you talking about?

TSE's quit the tory party. It will be interesting to see how this affects his Threads.

His threads will reflect his views on betting prospects and I would guess also reflect the views he has always held. Unlike some I don’t think that when it comes to politics he blindly follows the team in the blue shirt. But it’s not my job to defend him

philiph

Gallowgate said:

This guy. What a twat.

https://twitter.com/steven_swinford/status/1167494772031926272?s=21

Gallowgate said:

This guy. What a twat.

https://twitter.com/steven_swinford/status/1167494772031926272?s=21

Gallowgate said:

This guy. What a twat

The most recent comparable appointment would be Alistair Campbell, I think.

JBriskinindyref2

nichomar said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

nichomar said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

At least we all knew where we stood with tory boy TSE. What's TSE 2.0 playing at?

What the fuck are you talking about?

TSE's quit the tory party. It will be interesting to see how this affects his Threads.

His threads will reflect his views on betting prospects and I would guess also reflect the views he has always held. Unlike some I don’t think that when it comes to politics he blindly follows the team in the blue shirt. But it’s not my job to defend him

Alright mr buzzkill - was just having a bit of banter. TSE's a big boy.

FF43

Gallowgate said:

FF43 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

nichomar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I note that, again, the unweighted Ipsos-MORI poll hugely oversampled Remainers - they made up nearly 57% of the sample of those who say they voted. Even after weighting they comprised a majority of respondents who say they voted in the referendum.

Are they struggling to find leavers? Have they died?

It’s a real conundrum. I ought to do a thread header on it when I find time.

Potentially relevant

https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1164125817498218496

YouGov will have records of every time a particular person has answered a question and will be able to identify false recall surely?

Yougov make a big thing of false recall. Maybe if you have a way of dealing with it, you flaunt it. Ipsos Mori, I think, doesn't even weight according to how you say you voted. If their sample is heavily weighted towards self declared Remain voters, either their sample is way off or they are onto a trend the others are busily suppressing.

nichomar

JBriskinindyref2 said:

nichomar said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

nichomar said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

At least we all knew where we stood with tory boy TSE. What's TSE 2.0 playing at?

What the fuck are you talking about?

TSE's quit the tory party. It will be interesting to see how this affects his Threads.

His threads will reflect his views on betting prospects and I would guess also reflect the views he has always held. Unlike some I don’t think that when it comes to politics he blindly follows the team in the blue shirt. But it’s not my job to defend him

Alright mr buzzkill - was just having a bit of banter. TSE's a big boy.

Mr buzzkill?

HYUFD

nichomar said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

nichomar said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

At least we all knew where we stood with tory boy TSE. What's TSE 2.0 playing at?

What the fuck are you talking about?

TSE's quit the tory party. It will be interesting to see how this affects his Threads.

His threads will reflect his views on betting prospects and I would guess also reflect the views he has always held. Unlike some I don’t think that when it comes to politics he blindly follows the team in the blue shirt. But it’s not my job to defend him

Of course they don't, TSE voted LD at the last general election

Charles

edmundintokyo said:

What I want to know is who are the 13% who think Boris is totally shutting down parliament so he can pass more legislation about the NHS, and the whole Brexit thing is just one of those wild coincidences.

HYUFD, his wife, his mum, dog. Goldfish... ummm

JBriskinindyref2

nichomar said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

nichomar said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

nichomar said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

At least we all knew where we stood with tory boy TSE. What's TSE 2.0 playing at?

What the fuck are you talking about?

TSE's quit the tory party. It will be interesting to see how this affects his Threads.

His threads will reflect his views on betting prospects and I would guess also reflect the views he has always held. Unlike some I don’t think that when it comes to politics he blindly follows the team in the blue shirt. But it’s not my job to defend him

Alright mr buzzkill - was just having a bit of banter. TSE's a big boy.

Mr buzzkill?

apologies Mr buzzkill esquire

noneoftheabove

dixiedean said:

noneoftheabove said:

Omnium said:

I'm continually baffled as to how Corbyn's approval ratings fail to undermine the Labour vote more extensively. It's not as though the rest of the Labour front-bench are doing a stellar job to counter-balance (slightly the opposite in fact).

Swinson needs to find something. I wonder if the LDs would be better served just by having a policy of abstain and then rejoin.

Labour votes will be mostly made up of:

Pro Corbyn voters
Always vote Labour
Anti Tory voters

Hard to see any of those blocks going much below 6%, Labour are close to their floor unless they divide into two.

Anti Tory voters don't automatically vote Labour. This one doesn't anyways.

Of course, but a proportion of Labour voters will not support Labour but want to oppose the Tory candidate with the most realistic alternative. (Sadly even under Corbyn) that tends to mean voting Labour.

eek

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

nichomar said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

At least we all knew where we stood with tory boy TSE. What's TSE 2.0 playing at?

What the fuck are you talking about?

TSE's quit the tory party. It will be interesting to see how this affects his Threads.

His threads will reflect his views on betting prospects and I would guess also reflect the views he has always held. Unlike some I don’t think that when it comes to politics he blindly follows the team in the blue shirt. But it’s not my job to defend him

Of course they don't, TSE voted LD at the last general election

In a seat where the Tories had zero chance of winning, the Lib Dem candidate had successfully worked with the Tory party in coalition and the Labour candidate (and winner of the election) had slight issues.

nichomar

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

nichomar said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

At least we all knew where we stood with tory boy TSE. What's TSE 2.0 playing at?

What the fuck are you talking about?

TSE's quit the tory party. It will be interesting to see how this affects his Threads.

His threads will reflect his views on betting prospects and I would guess also reflect the views he has always held. Unlike some I don’t think that when it comes to politics he blindly follows the team in the blue shirt. But it’s not my job to defend him

Of course they don't, TSE voted LD at the last general election

Don’t be a **** he swapped his vote to help reduce the impact of our ridiculous voting system to try and make his vote count. You know that and hundreds of others know so don’t bullshitnto impress the new trolls

TheScreamingEagles

My threads will be the same, based on analysis of betting/polls and whatever tickles my fancy.

Here's how my thread writing approach works

1) Have a punt, base a thread on that

2) Have a pun, base a thread on that

3) Do a thread on what's happening in the world

4) Come up with a thread that will annoy some people

Some of my upcoming threads are based upon / discuss, inter alia, Hawaiian pizzas, AV, and making porn films.

HYUFD

gordonBrooker said:

HYUFD said:

gordonBrooker said:

Does anyone fancy explaining to HYUFD how it isn't really a 'historic' fourth term when they've only had two years of majority government to date (and only 9 including coalitions)? Or is that a thankless task? Don't answer that.

Only 1 party has stayed in office for 4 consecutive terms since 1832, Major's Tories, majority or no majority

In your completely hypothetical scenario, two of those 'terms' would be two years long and none of them thus far were with a proper working majority. Let's just say I don't think anyone except those trying to creep into certain human crevices will be using the word 'historic'.

The Tories have already been in office 9 years, longer than any post-war Government bar New Labour and Thatcher's Tories and Macmillan's Tories.

Indeed, if Boris wins a 4th term they will likely be in office longer than Palmerston and Asquith's Liberals or Salisbury's Tories too

FF43

Gallowgate said:

This guy. What a twat.

https://twitter.com/steven_swinford/status/1167494772031926272?s=21

It's a role for bruisers. But it's also fundamentally about people management. Sociopaths like Cumming probably don't do well in it

noneoftheabove

HYUFD said:

Boris has a higher net satisfaction rating than Corbyn, Swinson and Farage so is likely to win an autumn general election and the polling shows less than 50% still outright opposed to No Deal (and of course Boris still wants a Deal with a technical solution for the Irish border replacing the backstop anyway).

If Boris matches Major's 1992 win in the autumn it will be a historic Tory triumph, only the 2nd time in the last 100 years a party has got a 4th consecutive term in office. Given no PM since Lord Liverpool has won a 5th consecutive term for his party (and that was pre Reform Act) Deal or No Deal I cannot see the Tories stretching the elastic further than one more general election win and Corbyn is certainly a help on that front (with Corbyn having a 26% lower net approval rating than Jo Swinson it looks likely the LDs will get closer to Labour than Labour does to the Tories while Corbyn remains Leader of the Opposition)

A historic triumph, lets look back at what they have achieved. F***ed business and the constitution to meet an arbitrary date set by the French and made a marxist government a possibility in the UK. I'm sure history will look back fondly at their triumph.

TheScreamingEagles

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

nichomar said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

At least we all knew where we stood with tory boy TSE. What's TSE 2.0 playing at?

What the fuck are you talking about?

TSE's quit the tory party. It will be interesting to see how this affects his Threads.

His threads will reflect his views on betting prospects and I would guess also reflect the views he has always held. Unlike some I don’t think that when it comes to politics he blindly follows the team in the blue shirt. But it’s not my job to defend him

Of course they don't, TSE voted LD at the last general election

Don’t be a **** he swapped his vote to help reduce the impact of our ridiculous voting system to try and make his vote count. You know that and hundreds of others know so don’t bullshitnto impress the new trolls

My vote helped the Tories gain a seat from Labour, something HYUFD cannot process.

MarqueeMark

viewcode said:

MarqueeMark said:

noneoftheabove said:

algarkirk said:

noneoftheabove said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Its not enough to know what you're against, you also need something positive you can be in favour of.

That is where the Remainers have failed. They squeal and scream that the public doesn't want a No Deal Brexit, which may be true in isolation, but they don't want anything else either. Just like the Commons. And No Deal is the legal default.

The one thing the country doesn't need and doesn't want is perpetual purgatory so the question to answer before 31 October is what realistic alternative do you want. If Parliament can find a majority for that then extending to get it could be reasonable. If it can't and just wants to kick the can again to avoid making a decision like in March then Boris is right to say no.

But his actions are making an extension inevitable.......you think that is because he is being firm, the reality is he is being utterly cynical and misleading as always. He has no interest in delivering no deal.

If Boris has no interest in delivering No Deal then as a negotiator the time to make that clear would be sometime in the last week of October. I agree with everything Philip Thompson says here.

We are negotiating in public, as a divided nation of course we have a strategic weakness against the EU who are acting as one.

Leavers treating remainers who accept virtually any Brexit deal as "diehard remainers" and "traitors" is not helping strenghten the UK negotiating position but weakens it.

Remainers sitting on the same side of the negotiating table as the EU is not helping strengthen the UK negotiating position.

Idiots.

But they're not at the negotiating table.

You think? They are fluffing Barnier's pecker....

Omnium

viewcode said:

MarqueeMark said:

noneoftheabove said:

algarkirk said:

noneoftheabove said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Its not enough to know what you're against, you also need something positive you can be in favour of.

That is where the Remainers have failed. They squeal and scream that the public doesn't want a No Deal Brexit, which may be true in isolation, but they don't want anything else either. Just like the Commons. And No Deal is the legal default.

The one thing the country doesn't need and doesn't want is perpetual purgatory so the question to answer before 31 October is what realistic alternative do you want. If Parliament can find a majority for that then extending to get it could be reasonable. If it can't and just wants to kick the can again to avoid making a decision like in March then Boris is right to say no.

But his actions are making an extension inevitable.......you think that is because he is being firm, the reality is he is being utterly cynical and misleading as always. He has no interest in delivering no deal.

If Boris has no interest in delivering No Deal then as a negotiator the time to make that clear would be sometime in the last week of October. I agree with everything Philip Thompson says here.

We are negotiating in public, as a divided nation of course we have a strategic weakness against the EU who are acting as one.

Leavers treating remainers who accept virtually any Brexit deal as "diehard remainers" and "traitors" is not helping strenghten the UK negotiating position but weakens it.

Remainers sitting on the same side of the negotiating table as the EU is not helping strengthen the UK negotiating position.

Idiots.

But they're not at the negotiating table.

There's a perhaps unintentional viscosity about the progress of Brexit. It's 100% clear that MPs collectively have dragged their heels. Some have gone much further, for example its a bit odd that the LDs, as far as I know, haven't made any change to their arguments or policies despite the referendum. Surely there should be some degree of acknowledgement and accommodation?

There are some obvious Brexit-vote-deniers. Soubry for example lost it totally on Brexit night. The LDs though chose to totally fail to accommodate a democratic vote, and they did so not because they lost it like Soubry, but because they didn't want it and thought it was ok to complain to the teacher that the cat ate their homework.

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

nichomar said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

At least we all knew where we stood with tory boy TSE. What's TSE 2.0 playing at?

What the fuck are you talking about?

TSE's quit the tory party. It will be interesting to see how this affects his Threads.

His threads will reflect his views on betting prospects and I would guess also reflect the views he has always held. Unlike some I don’t think that when it comes to politics he blindly follows the team in the blue shirt. But it’s not my job to defend him

Of course they don't, TSE voted LD at the last general election

Don’t be a **** he swapped his vote to help reduce the impact of our ridiculous voting system to try and make his vote count. You know that and hundreds of others know so don’t bullshitnto impress the new trolls

My vote helped the Tories gain a seat from Labour, something HYUFD cannot process.

I believe you managed to vote for Cameron's Tories in 2010 and 2015 though nonetheless?

JBriskinindyref2

TheScreamingEagles said:

My threads will be the same, based on analysis of betting/polls and whatever tickles my fancy.

Here's how my thread writing approach works

1) Have a punt, base a thread on that

2) Have a pun, base a thread on that

3) Do a thread on what's happening in the world

4) Come up with a thread that will annoy some people

Some of my upcoming threads are based upon / discuss, inter alia, Hawaiian pizzas, AV, and making porn films.

It would be a bit strange if your threads didn't change a bit since you've burned your membership card.

Anyways, good luck with the guest hosting.

HYUFD

noneoftheabove said:

HYUFD said:

Boris has a higher net satisfaction rating than Corbyn, Swinson and Farage so is likely to win an autumn general election and the polling shows less than 50% still outright opposed to No Deal (and of course Boris still wants a Deal with a technical solution for the Irish border replacing the backstop anyway).

If Boris matches Major's 1992 win in the autumn it will be a historic Tory triumph, only the 2nd time in the last 100 years a party has got a 4th consecutive term in office. Given no PM since Lord Liverpool has won a 5th consecutive term for his party (and that was pre Reform Act) Deal or No Deal I cannot see the Tories stretching the elastic further than one more general election win and Corbyn is certainly a help on that front (with Corbyn having a 26% lower net approval rating than Jo Swinson it looks likely the LDs will get closer to Labour than Labour does to the Tories while Corbyn remains Leader of the Opposition)

A historic triumph, lets look back at what they have achieved. F***ed business and the constitution to meet an arbitrary date set by the French and made a marxist government a possibility in the UK. I'm sure history will look back fondly at their triumph.

If the Tories win a historic 4th term and a majority they will not only have delivered Brexit but crushed a potential Marxist Government so wrong

NickPalmer

AlastairMeeks said:

nichomar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I note that, again, the unweighted Ipsos-MORI poll hugely oversampled Remainers - they made up nearly 57% of the sample of those who say they voted. Even after weighting they comprised a majority of respondents who say they voted in the referendum.

Are they struggling to find leavers? Have they died?

It’s a real conundrum. I ought to do a thread header on it when I find time.

It's false memory syndrome, I assume, in the same way that pollsters find more 2017 Labour voters than actually voted Labour. The question is whether this is good news for Remain (and Labour), in that people really have switched to the extent that they've blotted out the horror of having voted the other way. Or bad news for Remain (and Labour) in that their sampling is simply missing lots of Leavers and Tories.

YouGov assumes the latter and downwieghts Labour in its polls - not sure if they do the same for Remain?

TheScreamingEagles

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

nichomar said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

At least we all knew where we stood with tory boy TSE. What's TSE 2.0 playing at?

What the fuck are you talking about?

TSE's quit the tory party. It will be interesting to see how this affects his Threads.

His threads will reflect his views on betting prospects and I would guess also reflect the views he has always held. Unlike some I don’t think that when it comes to politics he blindly follows the team in the blue shirt. But it’s not my job to defend him

Of course they don't, TSE voted LD at the last general election

Don’t be a **** he swapped his vote to help reduce the impact of our ridiculous voting system to try and make his vote count. You know that and hundreds of others know so don’t bullshitnto impress the new trolls

My vote helped the Tories gain a seat from Labour, something HYUFD cannot process.

I believe you managed to vote for Cameron's Tories in 2010 and 2015 though nonetheless?

In 2010 I lived in a different constituency.

In 2015 I wanted to ensure the Tories won the national popular vote.

gordonBrooker

HYUFD said:

gordonBrooker said:

HYUFD said:

gordonBrooker said:

Does anyone fancy explaining to HYUFD how it isn't really a 'historic' fourth term when they've only had two years of majority government to date (and only 9 including coalitions)? Or is that a thankless task? Don't answer that.

Only 1 party has stayed in office for 4 consecutive terms since 1832, Major's Tories, majority or no majority

In your completely hypothetical scenario, two of those 'terms' would be two years long and none of them thus far were with a proper working majority. Let's just say I don't think anyone except those trying to creep into certain human crevices will be using the word 'historic'.

The Tories have already been in office 9 years, longer than any post-war Government bar New Labour and Thatcher's Tories and Macmillan's Tories.

Indeed, if Boris wins a 4th term they will likely be in office longer than Palmerston and Asquith's Liberals or Salisbury's Tories too

In office but not in power. You can argue black is white until you are blue in the face, but I think all of the non-bonkers contingent of humanity can be assured history will not look upon this period of serial failures as a triumph for the Conservative party, whether Boris's final tragic swansong materialises or not.

GIN1138

HYUFD said:

Omnium said:

I'm continually baffled as to how Corbyn's approval ratings fail to undermine the Labour vote more extensively. It's not as though the rest of the Labour front-bench are doing a stellar job to counter-balance (slightly the opposite in fact).

Swinson needs to find something. I wonder if the LDs would be better served just by having a policy of abstain and then rejoin.

The LDs are just 1% behind Labour in the latest Yougov while Labour are 11% behind the Tories

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1167430545908871168?s=20

Go Con!!!

noneoftheabove

HYUFD said:

noneoftheabove said:

HYUFD said:

Boris has a higher net satisfaction rating than Corbyn, Swinson and Farage so is likely to win an autumn general election and the polling shows less than 50% still outright opposed to No Deal (and of course Boris still wants a Deal with a technical solution for the Irish border replacing the backstop anyway).

If Boris matches Major's 1992 win in the autumn it will be a historic Tory triumph, only the 2nd time in the last 100 years a party has got a 4th consecutive term in office. Given no PM since Lord Liverpool has won a 5th consecutive term for his party (and that was pre Reform Act) Deal or No Deal I cannot see the Tories stretching the elastic further than one more general election win and Corbyn is certainly a help on that front (with Corbyn having a 26% lower net approval rating than Jo Swinson it looks likely the LDs will get closer to Labour than Labour does to the Tories while Corbyn remains Leader of the Opposition)

A historic triumph, lets look back at what they have achieved. F***ed business and the constitution to meet an arbitrary date set by the French and made a marxist government a possibility in the UK. I'm sure history will look back fondly at their triumph.

If the Tories win a historic 4th term and a majority they will not only have delivered Brexit but crushed a potential Marxist Government so wrong

Brexit is the only way a Marxist govt could ever win.

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

nichomar said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

At least we all knew where we stood with tory boy TSE. What's TSE 2.0 playing at?

What the fuck are you talking about?

TSE's quit the tory party. It will be interesting to see how this affects his Threads.

His threads will reflect his views on betting prospects and I would guess also reflect the views he has always held. Unlike some I don’t think that when it comes to politics he blindly follows the team in the blue shirt. But it’s not my job to defend him

Of course they don't, TSE voted LD at the last general election

Don’t be a **** he swapped his vote to help reduce the impact of our ridiculous voting system to try and make his vote count. You know that and hundreds of others know so don’t bullshitnto impress the new trolls

My vote helped the Tories gain a seat from Labour, something HYUFD cannot process.

Bit of a shame it was Spartan Rowley ! Least he is antifracking unlike Engel

Philip_Thompson

noneoftheabove said:

Philip_Thompson said:

noneoftheabove said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Its not enough to know what you're against, you also need something positive you can be in favour of.

That is where the Remainers have failed. They squeal and scream that the public doesn't want a No Deal Brexit, which may be true in isolation, but they don't want anything else either. Just like the Commons. And No Deal is the legal default.

The one thing the country doesn't need and doesn't want is perpetual purgatory so the question to answer before 31 October is what realistic alternative do you want. If Parliament can find a majority for that then extending to get it could be reasonable. If it can't and just wants to kick the can again to avoid making a decision like in March then Boris is right to say no.

But his actions are making an extension inevitable.......you think that is because he is being firm, the reality is he is being utterly cynical and misleading as always. He has no interest in delivering no deal.

I don't believe it and I don't see what alternative course of action would have made it less inevitable.

It would have been inevitable under May for instance.

Well he could:

- deliver a Brexit that has a mandate in parliament
- or call an election to get a mandate for his version of Brexit
- or change UK red lines, that were not his originally, to negotiate a different deal with the EU

Picking a Brexit that has the support of only about 200 MPs then goading the rest into a VONC and extension is not strength or commitment to a cause but a dereliction of responsibility of office. Sadly he may get rewarded for it at a subsequent GE where he pretends others stopped him.

Plenty of leavers on here will fall for it, and they are far better informed than the leave voting public.

1: He is trying to. Parliament has only positively voted for two forms of Brexit: Either the deal without the backstop [the Brady Amendment] or to leave without a deal after the end of the period [invoking Article 50]. Parliament has rejected literally every other option. Every single indicative vote was rejected.

So Boris is following a twin track of honouring the two votes that have a mandate in Parliament. Either we leave with a deal, like the Brady Amendment, or we leave automatically without one via the Article 50 process. If there's some mything unicorn mandated alternative why wasn't it proposed during the indicative votes?

2: No need, he needs to try and deliver Brexit with this Parliament before the election.

3: No need, the UK red lines were his originally, every single one of them is a Vote Leave commitment. Without exception.

Barnesian

An interesting article on Ireland and Brexit:

https://www.ft.com/content/eaae31b2-c004-11e9-9381-78bab8a70848

Ireland appears to be a role model for the Singaporean economy that Johnson's regime aspires to.

GDP/head in ROI increased from €13,934 in 1995 to €40,655 last year. For the UK the increase was from €21,716 in 1995 to €30,594 last year.

Irish exports to the UK are 11% of total exports and falling, 39% to the rest of the EU and 50% and growing to the rest of the world. Britain exports more to the ROI than it does to China!

Value of all goods and services exports per employed person in Ireland was €126,630 per year. For the UK it was €17,627.

Ireland is expert at exporting and in attracting capital and talent. The UK is poor at exporting, sells its capital assets and repels talent.

The new Gaeillic Republic of the island of Ireland and Scotland will leave England and Wales in the dust! London and the University towns, which ARE dynamic and attract capital and talent, are chained to the corpse of complacent, insular, entitled Brexit Britain. Leaving the EU is not a solution to the fundamental problem. It makes it worse.

nichomar

noneoftheabove said:

HYUFD said:

noneoftheabove said:

HYUFD said:

Boris has a higher net satisfaction rating than Corbyn, Swinson and Farage so is likely to win an autumn general election and the polling shows less than 50% still outright opposed to No Deal (and of course Boris still wants a Deal with a technical solution for the Irish border replacing the backstop anyway).

If Boris matches Major's 1992 win in the autumn it will be a historic Tory triumph, only the 2nd time in the last 100 years a party has got a 4th consecutive term in office. Given no PM since Lord Liverpool has won a 5th consecutive term for his party (and that was pre Reform Act) Deal or No Deal I cannot see the Tories stretching the elastic further than one more general election win and Corbyn is certainly a help on that front (with Corbyn having a 26% lower net approval rating than Jo Swinson it looks likely the LDs will get closer to Labour than Labour does to the Tories while Corbyn remains Leader of the Opposition)

A historic triumph, lets look back at what they have achieved. F***ed business and the constitution to meet an arbitrary date set by the French and made a marxist government a possibility in the UK. I'm sure history will look back fondly at their triumph.

If the Tories win a historic 4th term and a majority they will not only have delivered Brexit but crushed a potential Marxist Government so wrong

Brexit is the only way a Marxist govt could ever win.

An interesting perspective that will be ignored by many

Gallowgate

Philip_Thompson said:

noneoftheabove said:

Philip_Thompson said:

noneoftheabove said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Its not enough to know what you're against, you also need something positive you can be in favour of.

That is where the Remainers have failed. They squeal and scream that the public doesn't want a No Deal Brexit, which may be true in isolation, but they don't want anything else either. Just like the Commons. And No Deal is the legal default.

The one thing the country doesn't need and doesn't want is perpetual purgatory so the question to answer before 31 October is what realistic alternative do you want. If Parliament can find a majority for that then extending to get it could be reasonable. If it can't and just wants to kick the can again to avoid making a decision like in March then Boris is right to say no.

But his actions are making an extension inevitable.......you think that is because he is being firm, the reality is he is being utterly cynical and misleading as always. He has no interest in delivering no deal.

I don't believe it and I don't see what alternative course of action would have made it less inevitable.

It would have been inevitable under May for instance.

Well he could:

- deliver a Brexit that has a mandate in parliament
- or call an election to get a mandate for his version of Brexit
- or change UK red lines, that were not his originally, to negotiate a different deal with the EU

Picking a Brexit that has the support of only about 200 MPs then goading the rest into a VONC and extension is not strength or commitment to a cause but a dereliction of responsibility of office. Sadly he may get rewarded for it at a subsequent GE where he pretends others stopped him.

Plenty of leavers on here will fall for it, and they are far better informed than the leave voting public.

1: He is trying to. Parliament has only positively voted for two forms of Brexit: Either the deal without the backstop [the Brady Amendment] or to leave without a deal after the end of the period [invoking Article 50]. Parliament has rejected literally every other option. Every single indicative vote was rejected.

So Boris is following a twin track of honouring the two votes that have a mandate in Parliament. Either we leave with a deal, like the Brady Amendment, or we leave automatically without one via the Article 50 process. If there's some mything unicorn mandated alternative why wasn't it proposed during the indicative votes?

2: No need, he needs to try and deliver Brexit with this Parliament before the election.

3: No need, the UK red lines were his originally, every single one of them is a Vote Leave commitment. Without exception.

All nonsense.

TheScreamingEagles

JBriskinindyref2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

My threads will be the same, based on analysis of betting/polls and whatever tickles my fancy.

Here's how my thread writing approach works

1) Have a punt, base a thread on that

2) Have a pun, base a thread on that

3) Do a thread on what's happening in the world

4) Come up with a thread that will annoy some people

Some of my upcoming threads are based upon / discuss, inter alia, Hawaiian pizzas, AV, and making porn films.

It wouldn't be a bit strange if your threads didn't change a bit since you've burned your membership card.

Anyways, good luck with the guest hosting.

Not really, I called it as I see it.

In 2013 I met and became friends with some people who worked for the Labour party GE campaign because they really enjoyed my threads because in their words my pieces were impeccably non partisan and perceptive as well.

I also got to know some SNP/Yes people who also liked my pieces for the same reasons at the same time.

HYUFD

noneoftheabove said:

HYUFD said:

noneoftheabove said:

HYUFD said:

Boris has a higher net satisfaction rating than Corbyn, Swinson and Farage so is likely to win an autumn general election and the polling shows less than 50% still outright opposed to No Deal (and of course Boris still wants a Deal with a technical solution for the Irish border replacing the backstop anyway).

If Boris matches Major's 1992 win in the autumn it will be a historic Tory triumph, only the 2nd time in the last 100 years a party has got a 4th consecutive term in office. Given no PM since Lord Liverpool has won a 5th consecutive term for his party (and that was pre Reform Act) Deal or No Deal I cannot see the Tories stretching the elastic further than one more general election win and Corbyn is certainly a help on that front (with Corbyn having a 26% lower net approval rating than Jo Swinson it looks likely the LDs will get closer to Labour than Labour does to the Tories while Corbyn remains Leader of the Opposition)

A historic triumph, lets look back at what they have achieved. F***ed business and the constitution to meet an arbitrary date set by the French and made a marxist government a possibility in the UK. I'm sure history will look back fondly at their triumph.

If the Tories win a historic 4th term and a majority they will not only have delivered Brexit but crushed a potential Marxist Government so wrong

Brexit is the only way a Marxist govt could ever win.

Wrong, no Brexit is the only way a Marxist Government could win as the Brexit Party would split the Tory vote as it did during the last weeks of May when Corbyn Labour was ahead in the polls.

Now the Boris led Tories have an 11% lead over Corbyn Labour in today's Yougov poll and the LDs are snapping at Labour's heels just 1% behind the reds

gordonBrooker

I've only just revisited this site after a long time away (and finally taken the leap from lurking) - is HYUFD just trolling us now, or has he actually developed a medical issue of some sort?