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  • I am always reminded when someone makes a comment like this of the anecdote I once remember reading, about a voter (I think in John Major's time) who claimed that every Prime Minister she had lived under had been worse than the one who came before.

    I invite readers to consider what horrors may be to come after Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn have both had a go. We shall truly look back on Theresa May's time in office as a golden age.
    Cameron was better than Brown. Boris can't be worse than May.

    Brown was the worst Chancellor of my lifetime and second-worst PM [after May].
  • Cameron was better than Brown. Boris can't be worse than May.

    Brown was the worst Chancellor of my lifetime and second-worst PM [after May].
    Blair the worst PM, Brown the worst Chancellor.

    Although re the latter Barber is a close runner up....
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    edited August 2019
    dixiedean said:

    What makes you think they'd be "unemployed"?
    I mean I’ll take that back if you like, but violence is predominantly unemployed young men. There’s bags of studies on it.
  • Boris can't possibly be worse than May. Corbyn will probably be the worst in living memory if he gets the chance.
    "Living"??!! "Of all time", surely?

    Fortunately he wont get the chance....
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,873
    ab195 said:

    I mean I’ll take that back if you like, but violence is predominantly unemployed young men. There’s bags of studies on it.
    Seems curious. We have relatively few unemployed young men at the moment.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,529
    edited August 2019
    New 'gold standard' Survation out

    Tories 31%
    Labour 24%
    LDs 21%
    Brexit Party 14%

    Best PM

    Boris 41%
    Swinson 19%
    Corbyn 17%

    Was Boris right to prorogue Parliament?
    Yes 39%
    No 40%

    Was Queen right to approve prorogation?
    Yes 52%
    No 29%

    Support Brexit Deal if EU drops NI backstop?

    Yes 52%
    No 22%

    Delay Brexit to get more time for a Deal?

    Yes 42%
    No 49%

    Best leader of a 'National Unity' government?

    Ken Clarke 32%
    Jeremy Corbyn 21%


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7412505/Boriss-gamble-paying-Tory-lead-Labour-DOUBLES-three-weeks.html
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    .

    Boris can't possibly be worse than May. Corbyn will probably be the worst in living memory if he gets the chance.
    The odious clown Boris is already worse than May and makes the risible Corbyn look like a statesman. This is not because May and Corbyn are anything other than utter shite, but because Johnson is a complete joke.
  • HYUFD said:

    New 'gold standard' Survation out

    Tories 31%
    Labour 24%
    LDs 21%
    Brexit Party 14%

    Best PM

    Boris 41%
    Swinson 19%
    Corbyn 17%

    Was Boris right to prorogue Parliament?
    Yes 39%
    No 40%

    Was Queen right to approve prorogation?
    Yes 52%
    No 29%

    Support Brexit Deal if EU drops NI backstop?

    Yes 52%
    No 22%

    Delay Brexit to get more time for a Deal?

    Yes 42%
    No 49%

    Best leader of a 'National Unity' government?

    Ken Clarke 32%
    Jeremy Corbyn 21%


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7412505/Boriss-gamble-paying-Tory-lead-Labour-DOUBLES-three-weeks.html

    A doubling of the tory lead.

    Unwelcome news for the wishful thinking Remain majority on PB
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    ...
  • dixiedean said:

    Seems curious. We have relatively few unemployed young men at the moment.
    You clearly dont know Govan.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    dixiedean said:

    Seems curious. We have relatively few unemployed young men at the moment.
    UK youth unemployment - quick cut-and-paste:

    502,000 young people aged 16-24 were unemployed in April to June 2019, up 36,000 from the previous quarter and up 13,000 from the year before. By historical standards, unemployment levels for young people are very low.

    For context, it is worth noting that the total population aged 16-24 has been declining in recent years; in April to June it was 87,000 less than a year before. The number of young people in employment decreased by 25,000 over the past year, while the number who are economically inactive (not in or looking for work) decreased by 74,000.

    The unemployment rate (the proportion of the economically active population who are unemployed) for 16-24 year olds was 11.6% in April to June 2019. This is up from 10.8% in the previous quarter and up from 11.3% a year before.

    The inactivity rate for young people is 37.6%. Over three quarters of young people who are economically inactive are in full-time education.

    The UK youth unemployment rate was 10.4% in January-March 2019, compared to 14.4% for the European Union as a whole.

    source: https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN05871
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    dixiedean said:

    Seems curious. We have relatively few unemployed young men at the moment.
    And not much violence.... Are you actually arguing against the sociological causes of crime?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,994
    ab195 said:

    Is it actually sectarian or is it unemployed young men wanting a punch up? (Genuine question - emphasising that because it’s sometimes hard to tell on the internet).
    Sectarian for sure, it was a parade by John Connelly Irish Flute Band in Govan , whoever thought that one up was crazy.
  • Ha ha ha...you think Campbell "never ran the country"?!

    Bless....

    I am trying to imagine a situation where Campbell would sack one of Brown’s team without telling Brown. It’s just not working for me.

  • The echo chamber that is PB simply cannot get its head round the fact that the majority of the country want Brexit and dont see Johnson as either a clown or a villain.

    Until they do they will continue to under-estimate him and so continue to lose...
  • "Support Brexit Deal if EU drops NI backstop?

    Yes 52%
    No 22%

    Delay Brexit to get more time for a Deal?

    Yes 42%
    No 49%"

    BOOM!

    You know what to do Europe.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,867
    More detail on the sacking:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/30/sajid-javid-confronts-boris-johnson-over-advisers-sacking
    Whitehall sources confirmed that the reason Khan was dismissed on the spot was because she had been in contact with people working with a group of Conservative politicians trying to block a no-deal Brexit, and over the claim that she had lied about her contact with them.

    But a source close to her said: “She was asked about her contact with her former colleague, she said she had seen the person socially quite recently in Westminster – hardly some discreet part of London. She was open about it and handed over both her phones. There’s no law about speaking to former colleagues.

    “He then said ‘you’re fired’. Sonia is a dyed-in-the-wool Brexiteer, a passionate leaver – she was loyally behind the view of the government and delivery of Brexit.”

    It emerged that there were no witnesses to her sacking by Cummings, who spoke to her in an office in Downing Street close to the prime minister’s. A former Whitehall source said: “She wasn’t offered to take anybody with her and she wasn’t told what the meeting was about.”...
  • HYUFD said:

    New 'gold standard' Survation out

    Tories 31%
    Labour 24%
    LDs 21%
    Brexit Party 14%

    Best PM

    Boris 41%
    Swinson 19%
    Corbyn 17%

    Was Boris right to prorogue Parliament?
    Yes 39%
    No 40%

    Was Queen right to approve prorogation?
    Yes 52%
    No 29%

    Support Brexit Deal if EU drops NI backstop?

    Yes 52%
    No 22%

    Delay Brexit to get more time for a Deal?

    Yes 42%
    No 49%

    Best leader of a 'National Unity' government?

    Ken Clarke 32%
    Jeremy Corbyn 21%


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7412505/Boriss-gamble-paying-Tory-lead-Labour-DOUBLES-three-weeks.html

    Survation had the Cons 11% ahead at the start of the 2017 campaign. Doesn't look good for Johnson.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    "Support Brexit Deal if EU drops NI backstop?

    Yes 52%
    No 22%

    Delay Brexit to get more time for a Deal?

    Yes 42%
    No 49%"

    BOOM!

    You know what to do Europe.

    Sit tight, watch Boris squirm and then implode when the inevitable extension request is made?
  • I am trying to imagine a situation where Campbell would sack one of Brown’s team without telling Brown. It’s just not working for me.

    It is for me....

    You are clearly unfamiliar with the workings of the Blair governments.
  • Sit tight, watch Boris squirm and then implode when the inevitable extension request is made?
    You people still dont get it, do you?

    "Hope" is not a strategy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,529
    edited August 2019

    Survation had the Cons 11% ahead at the start of the 2017 campaign. Doesn't look good for Johnson.
    52% back a Deal minus the backstop, 52% back the Queen proroguing Parliament.

    Opposition split down the middle with Swinson now overtaking Corbyn as best PM, looks very good for Johnson (plus there will be no dementia tax gaffes unlike 2017 from Boris)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,873
    ab195 said:

    And not much violence.... Are you actually arguing against the sociological causes of crime?
    No I'm not. Just seemed to me highly likely that Friday night, drink taken, plenty of trouble up and down the country amongst young men of all statuses.
    Really was no more or less than that.
  • It is for me....

    You are clearly unfamiliar with the workings of the Blair governments.

    Bless you.

  • Survation had the Cons 11% ahead at the start of the 2017 campaign. Doesn't look good for Johnson.

    Ha ha ha.....

    As i say i m no particular fan of BoJo's, but this is desperate stuff.

    "2017"?!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,124
    isam said:

    Worst thing is it’s a retweet of one of his own tweets! What a desperate attention seeker 🙈
    Is that better or worse than reposting your own posts?
  • gordonBrookergordonBrooker Posts: 44
    edited August 2019
    HYUFD said:

    52% back a Deal minus the backstop, 52% back the Queen proroguing Parliament.

    Opposition split down the middle with Swinson now overtaking Corbyn as best PM, looks very good for Johnson
    There is going to be tactical voting on an epic scale so the Lib Dem / Labour split is irrelevant, it's their totals that matter. Also Labour vote will come up over any campaign and current don't knows will flood in just like in 2017.

    There will be no deal without a backstop so irrelevant.

    People think the Queen had to prorogue if the PM asks her to, they aren't condoning the act in the first place as we see by the fact only 39% think Johnson was right.

    Johnson is screwed on these figures.
  • Bless you.


    Until you people start seeing through the red mist and begin to understand whats going on here, you are going to go on losing. You really are!

    My guess is that BoJo is going to win...with a landslide.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,066
    The Iowa Democratic Party announced Friday it will explore alternative formats for the state’s all-important 2020 caucus amid reports that the Democratic National Committee (DNC) intends to scrap plans to hold the nominating contest virtually.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/459466-iowa-democratic-party-to-explore-alternatives-after-dnc-opposition-to
  • HYUFD said:

    New 'gold standard' Survation out

    Tories 31%
    Labour 24%
    LDs 21%
    Brexit Party 14%

    Best PM

    Boris 41%
    Swinson 19%
    Corbyn 17%

    Was Boris right to prorogue Parliament?
    Yes 39%
    No 40%

    Was Queen right to approve prorogation?
    Yes 52%
    No 29%

    Support Brexit Deal if EU drops NI backstop?

    Yes 52%
    No 22%

    Delay Brexit to get more time for a Deal?

    Yes 42%
    No 49%

    Best leader of a 'National Unity' government?

    Ken Clarke 32%
    Jeremy Corbyn 21%


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7412505/Boriss-gamble-paying-Tory-lead-Labour-DOUBLES-three-weeks.html

    Surprised they asked about Swinson but not Farage. Interested about the 2% points who would vote LD but don't think Swinson is best PM. Could just be noise.

    Boris has more than Swinson and Corbyn put together.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,119

    "Psychotic" usually relates schizophrenia. I don't think Bad Al had schizophrenia as he clearly states his brother was schizophrenic and he was worried he had the same condition but did not. It is possible to have schizophrenia and depression, which is called schizo-effective disorder. It maybe that Bad Al made a mistake where it quotes him as saying he had a psychotic breakdown as the article repeatedly says depression. Some very gifted people have suffered psychotic breakdowns and I would not hold it against him. His attitude and arrogance is certainly something to hold against him but serious mental illness. No.
    I am sympathetic to sufferers of mental illness, but don’t consider it to be holding it against someone who has admitted psychotic episode, nervous breakdowns and alcoholism when I say I don’t want them having as much of a say of when we bomb cities and how we run the country as Alastair Campbell did because of those issues
  • There is going to be tactical voting on an epic scale so the Lib Dem / Labour split is irrelevant, it's their totals that matter. Also Labour vote will come up over any campaign and current don't knows will flood in just like in 2017.

    There will be no deal without a backstop so irrelevant.

    People think the Queen had to prorogue if the PM asks her to, they aren't condoning the act in the first place as we see by the fact only 39% think Johnson was right.

    Johnson is screwed on these figures.

    If anyone thinks the Tories will be taking seats from the SNP in Scotland, please contact me about some magic beans I have going cheap ...

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,529

  • Until you people start seeing through the red mist and begin to understand whats going on here, you are going to go on losing. You really are!

    My guess is that BoJo is going to win...with a landslide.
    I'm sure you'd love that to be true, but care to explain where exactly, once they have lost their Scottish seats and a bunch of seats in the South, starting as they are from something way south of a majority?
  • glwglw Posts: 10,298
    Nigelb said:

    More detail on the sacking:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/30/sajid-javid-confronts-boris-johnson-over-advisers-sacking
    Whitehall sources confirmed that the reason Khan was dismissed on the spot was because she had been in contact with people working with a group of Conservative politicians trying to block a no-deal Brexit, and over the claim that she had lied about her contact with them.

    But a source close to her said: “She was asked about her contact with her former colleague, she said she had seen the person socially quite recently in Westminster – hardly some discreet part of London. She was open about it and handed over both her phones. There’s no law about speaking to former colleagues.

    “He then said ‘you’re fired’. Sonia is a dyed-in-the-wool Brexiteer, a passionate leaver – she was loyally behind the view of the government and delivery of Brexit.”

    It emerged that there were no witnesses to her sacking by Cummings, who spoke to her in an office in Downing Street close to the prime minister’s. A former Whitehall source said: “She wasn’t offered to take anybody with her and she wasn’t told what the meeting was about.”...

    If that last paragraph is correct, then for most businesses Cummings would now be facing disciplinary measures.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,278
    Quite an understated reaction.

    I dont think the Tories will so well in the upcoming snap election, but I can envisage how they might succeed if I am wrong. I struggle to see that with regards Scotland though.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Re: these polling numbers. They are worthless.

    Opinion polling a few weeks out from the last General Election transpired to have no predictive validity when it came to the final outcome. This time around the starting pistol for the election campaign has still yet to be fired, nobody can be sure when it will be, and equally nobody can be sure whether or not the fight might be four-cornered in England this time around.

    Clearly if that happens, and if the vote share of the two main parties is very low by historical standards, then we can also throw the predictions of the UNS calculators out of the window. All sorts of bizarre outcomes would then become possible.
  • There is going to be tactical voting on an epic scale so the Lib Dem / Labour split is irrelevant, it's their totals that matter. Also Labour vote will come up over any campaign and current don't knows will flood in just like in 2017.

    There will be no deal without a backstop so irrelevant.

    People think the Queen had to prorogue if the PM asks her to, they aren't condoning the act in the first place as we see by the fact only 39% think Johnson was right.

    Johnson is screwed on these figures.
    He just isnt. He really isnt! Please believe me...

    The youth vote for Labour, for Labour, has halved since 2017 and it aint coming back. Labour is going to be reduced to its inner City and university heartlands. Until you all grasp this fact there is no hope for Labour.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,066
    They are running out of things to burn in order to get No Deal.
  • malcolmg said:

    Sectarian for sure, it was a parade by John Connelly Irish Flute Band in Govan , whoever thought that one up was crazy.
    Blimey, I was only at the southern end of the Clyde Arc last Monday week!
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    D

    You people still dont get it, do you?

    "Hope" is not a strategy.
    We don’t need hope, after all we hold all the cards
  • isamisam Posts: 41,119

    Is that better or worse than reposting your own posts?

    I’ve done that on the next thread, FPT style, you can’t be meaning that though. What do you mean?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,529

    There is going to be tactical voting on an epic scale so the Lib Dem / Labour split is irrelevant, it's their totals that matter. Also Labour vote will come up over any campaign and current don't knows will flood in just like in 2017.

    There will be no deal without a backstop so irrelevant.

    People think the Queen had to prorogue if the PM asks her to, they aren't condoning the act in the first place as we see by the fact only 39% think Johnson was right.

    Johnson is screwed on these figures.
    Of course it matters, Swinson is now preferred to Corbyn as PM LD voters are NOT going to tactically vote Labour on anywhere like the scale they did in 2017.

    The Tories and Brexit party total combined is also equal to the Labour and LD total combined so plenty more room for the Tories to squeeze the Brexit Party.

    There is every chance of a deal with a technical solution as Macron and Merkel both gave Boris time to propose.

    Just 1% difference on proroguing Parliament and a clear lead for opposition to further extension.

    Corbyn is absolutely screwed on those figures
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,278
    Scott_P said:
    I'm surprised BXP is so high given Boris could hardly have proven his commitment to them any better. If the tories do win a majority we can all look forward to the fair weather pr supportes being outraged at it because of the quote low Tory score.
  • Jolyon Maugham is hardly a disinterested observer.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,066
    glw said:

    If that last paragraph is correct, then for most businesses Cummings would now be facing disciplinary measures.
    Hubris. Bannon redux.

    Hope he is aware that the minute he delivers Johnson his No Deal, should that happen, he will be out into the car park for a ride home with no return.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,278

    .

    The odious clown Boris is already worse than May and makes the risible Corbyn look like a statesman. This is not because May and Corbyn are anything other than utter shite, but because Johnson is a complete joke.
    I'd question the assertion he is a joke. Unfortunately he is not a joke and that is the problem.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,529

    He just isnt. He really isnt! Please believe me...

    The youth vote for Labour, for Labour, has halved since 2017 and it aint coming back. Labour is going to be reduced to its inner City and university heartlands. Until you all grasp this fact there is no hope for Labour.
    Labour is heading for its lowest voteshare in 100 years and utter humiliation on tonight's poll and still the Corbynistas think their Messiah walks on water!
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    He’s simply reposted an official government tweet
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,873

    Re: these polling numbers. They are worthless.

    Opinion polling a few weeks out from the last General Election transpired to have no predictive validity when it came to the final outcome. This time around the starting pistol for the election campaign has still yet to be fired, nobody can be sure when it will be, and equally nobody can be sure whether or not the fight might be four-cornered in England this time around.

    Clearly if that happens, and if the vote share of the two main parties is very low by historical standards, then we can also throw the predictions of the UNS calculators out of the window. All sorts of bizarre outcomes would then become possible.

    More pertinently, no one knows whether we will be in or out of the EU, nor indeed, how exactly that condition came about.
    The polls are as good as meaningless, unless everything goes as everyone expects. And since no one can agree what to expect, everyone can paint their own view of the future.
    So yeah. A guide to how we might vote tomorrow. But we aren't.
  • I'm sure you'd love that to be true, but care to explain where exactly, once they have lost their Scottish seats and a bunch of seats in the South, starting as they are from something way south of a majority?
    For a start they arent going to lose their scottish seats. Some maybe, but not all. Labour look likely to lose all bit 1 or 2.

    The left is split. The tories will lose seats in the WC but hoover up old Labour and Brexit votes (and so seats) in the west and east midlands and in the NW.

    You are assuming im a tory.....

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,999
    edited August 2019
    HYUFD said:
    On those Survation numbers, the Tories could not be confident of a majority. They need the YouGov ones. But the YouGov supplementals are much worse for them. It’s intriguing.

  • glwglw Posts: 10,298

    Hubris. Bannon redux.

    Hope he is aware that the minute he delivers Johnson his No Deal, should that happen, he will be out into the car park for a ride home with no return.
    Expect to see him as a future fixture of right-wing US cable news channels.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,278
    HYUFD said:

    Labour is heading for its lowest voteshare in 100 years and utter humiliation on tonight's poll and still the Corbynistas think their Messiah walks on water!
    It's not rocket science - he defied predictions last time plus the situation and anger of their own supporters against the Tories is even more fired up, they believe that adds up to victory.

    Might well be wrong but theres reasoning to it. I'd be wary of putting all eggs in the really good tactical anti Tory voting basket, which presumes a lot, but it's not surprising.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,124

    The last Scottish polling had the SCons on 18%, I'd have thought the Unionist vote was bigger than that. Of course the onset of BJ and departure of Ruthie may change things, and it would be fascinating to see the rationale that suggests those changes would be to the SCons' benefit.

  • Until you people start seeing through the red mist and begin to understand whats going on here, you are going to go on losing. You really are!

    My guess is that BoJo is going to win...with a landslide.
    I will rephrase that, It wont be a "landslide", but it will be a comfortable majority..... 30+ seats.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,278
    glw said:

    If that last paragraph is correct, then for most businesses Cummings would now be facing disciplinary measures.
    I presume if she fights back she's burned in the little industry forever.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,529

    On those Survation numbers, the Tories could not be confident of a majority. The need the YouGov ones. But the YouGov supplemental date much wise for them. It’s intriguing.

    Either way Corbyn is screwed I think, either a Boris majority or Swinson Kingmaker only possible outcomes from YouGov and Survation and that almost certainly means Corbyn will not be PM either way
  • HYUFD said:

    Of course it matters, Swinson is now preferred to Corbyn as PM LD voters are NOT going to tactically vote Labour on anywhere like the scale they did in 2017.

    The Tories and Brexit party total combined is also equal to the Labour and LD total combined so plenty more room for the Tories to squeeze the Brexit Party.

    There is every chance of a deal with a technical solution as Macron and Merkel both gave Boris time to propose.

    Just 1% difference on proroguing Parliament and a clear lead for opposition to further extension.

    Corbyn is absolutely screwed on those figures
    I think you need to divorce wishful thinking and reality or you are setting yourself up for a big fall. Just because you desperately don't want tactical voting to take place to the extent it did in 2017 doesn't mean that will be the case. Just saying it ad infinitum won't magically make it come true I'm afraid, that's the sort of magical thinking most of us left behind in childhood.

    There will be more tactical voting, if anything, as Labour voters are happier to lend the Lib Dems votes now where necessary than they were in 2017. I know I certainly am. And where there are incumbent Labour MPs, it will be easy to unite the anti-Tory vote around them.

    And I forgot to add the Greens to the Lab/Lib Dem total, sorry.

    You will not be getting your deal without a backstop, complete fantasy.

    Deluded all round, really.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Soething McDonnell cares very deeply about....

    Oh the fecking irony.
  • kle4 said:

    I'm surprised BXP is so high given Boris could hardly have proven his commitment to them any better. If the tories do win a majority we can all look forward to the fair weather pr supportes being outraged at it because of the quote low Tory score.
    Con plus BP = 45, which is where it has been consistently for a very long time, give or take a couple of points. That figure is pretty much consistent with the Leave/Remain split, as currently polled. I cannot see either changing much until there is some clear resolution of Brexit, one way or the other.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,124
    isam said:


    I’ve done that on the next thread, FPT style, you can’t be meaning that though. What do you mean?
    On the next thread? Which of your obsessions have you pencilled in for that next thread?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,119

    On the next thread? Which of your obsessions have you pencilled in for that next thread?
    Oh, you 🤣
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    No, he really isn't

  • kle4 said:

    It's not rocket science - he defied predictions last time plus the situation and anger of their own supporters against the Tories is even more fired up, they believe that adds up to victory.

    Might well be wrong but theres reasoning to it. I'd be wary of putting all eggs in the really good tactical anti Tory voting basket, which presumes a lot, but it's not surprising.
    Ah...the old "Corbyn does OK on the day" argument.

    He did it once, but then he was an unknown quantity. Indeed, immediately after the last GE he had positive leadership ratings of c40% and the equivalent to Mays's. The public know him better now and so that just isnt true anymore.

    Corbyn is going to be eviscerated. I keep telling my Labour friends this but they dont want to believe it....
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Scott_P said:
    all together now...

    "Oh.. Jeremy Corbyn!!"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,278

    He’s simply reposted an official government tweet
    His interpretations of it are his own however. Not that I disagree with his point here, but hes always going to take the most negative view one assumes.
  • HYUFD said:

    Either way Corbyn is screwed I think, either a Boris majority or Swinson Kingmaker only possible outcomes from YouGov and Survation and that almost certainly means Corbyn will not be PM either way

    Yes, for as long as Corbyn is there Labour are buggered. Their only hope is holding onto seats in England and Wales as a result of tactical voting. It may help in some places, but not everywhere. I expect Labour to lose at least 30 seats at a minimum in E&W, plus 6 out of 7 in Scotland.

  • Sit tight, watch Boris squirm and then implode when the inevitable extension request is made?
    You and I have very different interpretations of the word "inevitable".

    Boris won't voluntarily seek an extension and will fight Parliament tooth and nail to prevent one.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,278

    I think you need to divorce wishful thinking and reality or you are setting yourself up for a big fall. Just because you desperately don't want tactical voting to take place to the extent it did in 2017 doesn't mean that will be the case. Just saying it ad infinitum won't magically make it come true I'm afraid, that's the sort of magical thinking most of us left behind in childhood.

    There will be more tactical voting, if anything, as Labour voters are happier to lend the Lib Dems votes now where necessary than they were in 2017. I know I certainly am. And where there are incumbent Labour MPs, it will be easy to unite the anti-Tory vote around them.

    And I forgot to add the Greens to the Lab/Lib Dem total, sorry.

    You will not be getting your deal without a backstop, complete fantasy.

    Deluded all round, really.
    Divorcing wishful thinking and reality would really cut down on the content around here and for myself take too much effort.
  • On those Survation numbers, the Tories could not be confident of a majority. They need the YouGov ones. But the YouGov supplementals are much worse for them. It’s intriguing.

    Face it. Labour are screwed. The cult has been a fecking disaster for them.


    At a time when we need a genuine opposition, Corbyn's fellow travellers and the spineless muppets who represent the PLP have a lot to answer for...
  • For a start they arent going to lose their scottish seats. Some maybe, but not all. Labour look likely to lose all bit 1 or 2.

    The left is split. The tories will lose seats in the WC but hoover up old Labour and Brexit votes (and so seats) in the west and east midlands and in the NW.

    You are assuming im a tory.....

    Just like they hoovered up Old Labour votes in 2017, like everyone said they would? The gap with the Tories is significantly less than at the equivalent point then. And the anti-tory vote is being increasingly united with every minute that Boris and Dom's cunning plans progress...
  • Just like they hoovered up Old Labour votes in 2017, like everyone said they would? The gap with the Tories is significantly less than at the equivalent point then. And the anti-tory vote is being increasingly united with every minute that Boris and Dom's cunning plans progress...
    As i say, until you people face reality you are utterly, utterly screwed,

    Stop screaming into the gale....
  • HYUFD said:

    Either way Corbyn is screwed I think, either a Boris majority or Swinson Kingmaker only possible outcomes from YouGov and Survation and that almost certainly means Corbyn will not be PM either way
    So Swinson would put Johnson back in power? I bet her voters would love that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,278

    Ah...the old "Corbyn does OK on the day" argument.

    He did it once, but then he was an unknown quantity. Indeed, immediately after the last GE he had positive leadership ratings of c40% and the equivalent to Mays's. The public know him better now and so that just isnt true anymore.

    Corbyn is going to be eviscerated. I keep telling my Labour friends this but they dont want to believe it....
    I didn't say I believed it either, but its pretty understandable that a lot of people wont believe forecasts of doom until they occur, given past events.

    That said I do think BoJos actions simultaneously bolster him and undercut him, as it does encourage the votes against him, of holding ones nose to defeat him. But how many candidates BXP stand and if we have already left or not will be key.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    2016: Leave wins 52%
    2017: Anti No Deal parties (LAB LD SNP PC) win 52-53% at GE
    2018: Anti No Deal parties again win approx 52% at Euros

    Conclusion:
    Leave with A Deal is the only valid outcome.
  • Just like they hoovered up Old Labour votes in 2017, like everyone said they would? The gap with the Tories is significantly less than at the equivalent point then. And the anti-tory vote is being increasingly united with every minute that Boris and Dom's cunning plans progress...
    Citation?

    The pro-Brexit vote seems to be uniting behind the Tories but the anti-Brexit vote seems to be fragmenting between Labour and Lib Dems.

    2017 was a disaster because Corbyn surprisingly hoovered up the anti-Tory vote, not because of tactical voting. I see no reason to think the Lib Dems will collapse this time like they did then.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,529

    So Swinson would put Johnson back in power? I bet her voters would love that.
    No, she would put Ken Clarke or Harriet Harman in instead
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,868
    HYUFD said:

    Labour is heading for its lowest voteshare in 100 years and utter humiliation on tonight's poll and still the Corbynistas think their Messiah walks on water!
    And in 2017, even after the exit poll, Tory loyalists still believed Theresa May was heading for a majority.
  • HYUFD said:

    Labour is heading for its lowest voteshare in 100 years and utter humiliation on tonight's poll and still the Corbynistas think their Messiah walks on water!
    Even if the poll was correct (as I say the Tories were significantly further ahead with Survation at a roughly equivalent point last time) am I not wrong to say it would be the second worst Tory vote share of all time after 1997?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,529

    Yes, for as long as Corbyn is there Labour are buggered. Their only hope is holding onto seats in England and Wales as a result of tactical voting. It may help in some places, but not everywhere. I expect Labour to lose at least 30 seats at a minimum in E&W, plus 6 out of 7 in Scotland.

    I don't disagree
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,771
    HYUFD said:

    New 'gold standard' Survation out

    Tories 31%
    Labour 24%
    LDs 21%
    Brexit Party 14%

    Best PM

    Boris 41%
    Swinson 19%
    Corbyn 17%

    Was Boris right to prorogue Parliament?
    Yes 39%
    No 40%

    Was Queen right to approve prorogation?
    Yes 52%
    No 29%

    Support Brexit Deal if EU drops NI backstop?

    Yes 52%
    No 22%

    Delay Brexit to get more time for a Deal?

    Yes 42%
    No 49%

    Best leader of a 'National Unity' government?

    Ken Clarke 32%
    Jeremy Corbyn 21%


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7412505/Boriss-gamble-paying-Tory-lead-Labour-DOUBLES-three-weeks.html

    Have they just polled Conservative Clubs for this one? :D
  • As i say, until you people face reality you are utterly, utterly screwed,

    Stop screaming into the gale....
    An gale that can't be felt and in fact no evidence can be presented that it exists.
  • HYUFD said:

    No, she would put Ken Clarke or Harriet Harman in instead
    Neither would be on offer.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,529

    Neither would be on offer.
    Swinson would never support Corbyn as PM, so if Labour MPs do not back Clarke or Harman they get Boris by default then
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,278

    Citation?

    The pro-Brexit vote seems to be uniting behind the Tories but the anti-Brexit vote seems to be fragmenting between Labour and Lib Dems.

    2017 was a disaster because Corbyn surprisingly hoovered up the anti-Tory vote, not because of tactical voting. I see no reason to think the Lib Dems will collapse this time like they did then.
    I'm very interested to see the red and yellow interactions this time. Vote yellow get blue would be the standard cry but the reds still need some of their supporters to back the yellows to take seats from the blues.

    How closely can they align without undermining each other by aiding the Tories?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,529
    Chris said:

    And in 2017, even after the exit poll, Tory loyalists still believed Theresa May was heading for a majority.
    Survation had just a 1% Tory lead on eve of poll 2017 compared to a 7% Tory lead tonight
  • Citation?

    The pro-Brexit vote seems to be uniting behind the Tories but the anti-Brexit vote seems to be fragmenting between Labour and Lib Dems.

    2017 was a disaster because Corbyn surprisingly hoovered up the anti-Tory vote, not because of tactical voting. I see no reason to think the Lib Dems will collapse this time like they did then.
    They don't need to collapse. Corbyn did too well in places that could otherwise have gone Lib Dem with some tactical voting. This time the lib dems will be getting votes where they need them and labour will too. Enough to save the vast majority of the seats they have, in Labour's case, anyway.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,278
    GIN1138 said:

    Have they just polled Conservative Clubs for this one? :D
    It's to counter the shy Tory syndrome!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,529
    edited August 2019

    Even if the poll was correct (as I say the Tories were significantly further ahead with Survation at a roughly equivalent point last time) am I not wrong to say it would be the second worst Tory vote share of all time after 1997?
    Maybe but the Tories would also win more seats than at any election in the last 27 years bar 2015, Labour would win fewer seats than at any time since 1983
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,278
    HYUFD said:

    Survation had just a 1% Tory lead on eve of poll 2017 compared to a 7% Tory lead tonight
    And do you anticipate that being the level of the eve of poll lead for the upcoming election?
  • HYUFD said:

    Survation had just a 1% Tory lead on eve of poll 2017 compared to a 7% Tory lead tonight
    It's not the eve of the election in case you hadn't noticed. At the start of the campaign the Tories were 11% ahead. They are significantly less ahead than that now and the campaign hasn't even started.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,529
    GIN1138 said:

    Have they just polled Conservative Clubs for this one? :D
    They clearly polled the world beyond Islington
This discussion has been closed.