I'm not sure I buy this. The EU has a new Commission incoming and a new budget to set. Do they still want us in the way by the time this all kicks off - especially given that there would, presumably, still be no resolution of Brexit in sight under these circumstances?
It is of course a nonsense story, apart from it being in some sense real Someone suggested it, and I think Brown was prompted to float it. No matter what anyone says the EU will be making some efforts to find a way out - I've no idea if those efforts are big or small, serious or token. Brown pontificating, and then an EU leak is precisely the way they'd so such a thing. If you imagined what the EU might try, then this is precisely that.
They'll have at least one more try. I can't see who they have left in terms of cards to play though. If you're playing "Brown" then there's no so much in your hand.
Brown will surprise us all by his appointment to some european office or other soon by the way. Who could begrudge it when he's a man of such helpful comment.
Brown was pretty poor as PM. But compared to those who have come after he is a titan.
I am always reminded when someone makes a comment like this of the anecdote I once remember reading, about a voter (I think in John Major's time) who claimed that every Prime Minister she had lived under had been worse than the one who came before.
I invite readers to consider what horrors may be to come after Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn have both had a go. We shall truly look back on Theresa May's time in office as a golden age.
Cameron was better than Brown. Boris can't be worse than May.
Brown was the worst Chancellor of my lifetime and second-worst PM [after May].
I'm not sure I buy this. The EU has a new Commission incoming and a new budget to set. Do they still want us in the way by the time this all kicks off - especially given that there would, presumably, still be no resolution of Brexit in sight under these circumstances?
It is of course a nonsense story, apart from it being in some sense real Someone suggested it, and I think Brown was prompted to float it. No matter what anyone says the EU will be making some efforts to find a way out - I've no idea if those efforts are big or small, serious or token. Brown pontificating, and then an EU leak is precisely the way they'd so such a thing. If you imagined what the EU might try, then this is precisely that.
They'll have at least one more try. I can't see who they have left in terms of cards to play though. If you're playing "Brown" then there's no so much in your hand.
Brown will surprise us all by his appointment to some european office or other soon by the way. Who could begrudge it when he's a man of such helpful comment.
Brown was pretty poor as PM. But compared to those who have come after he is a titan.
I am always reminded when someone makes a comment like this of the anecdote I once remember reading, about a voter (I think in John Major's time) who claimed that every Prime Minister she had lived under had been worse than the one who came before.
I invite readers to consider what horrors may be to come after Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn have both had a go. We shall truly look back on Theresa May's time in office as a golden age.
Cameron was better than Brown. Boris can't be worse than May.
Brown was the worst Chancellor of my lifetime and second-worst PM [after May].
Blair the worst PM, Brown the worst Chancellor.
Although re the latter Barber is a close runner up....
Celtic v Rangers and it goes back decades. It happened when I lived in Edinburgh in the 1960' s
No excuse for it now G , just morons. Most people grew up.
Is it actually sectarian or is it unemployed young men wanting a punch up? (Genuine question - emphasising that because it’s sometimes hard to tell on the internet).
What makes you think they'd be "unemployed"?
I mean I’ll take that back if you like, but violence is predominantly unemployed young men. There’s bags of studies on it.
I'm not sure I buy this. The EU has a new Commission incoming and a new budget to set. Do they still want us in the way by the time this all kicks off - especially given that there would, presumably, still be no resolution of Brexit in sight under these circumstances?
It is of course a nonsense story, apart from it being in some sense real Someone suggested it, and I think Brown was prompted to float it. No matter what anyone says the EU will be making some efforts to find a way out - I've no idea if those efforts are big or small, serious or token. Brown pontificating, and then an EU leak is precisely the way they'd so such a thing. If you imagined what the EU might try, then this is precisely that.
They'll have at least one more try. I can't see who they have left in terms of cards to play though. If you're playing "Brown" then there's no so much in your hand.
Brown will surprise us all by his appointment to some european office or other soon by the way. Who could begrudge it when he's a man of such helpful comment.
Brown was pretty poor as PM. But compared to those who have come after he is a titan.
I am always reminded when someone makes a comment like this of the anecdote I once remember reading, about a voter (I think in John Major's time) who claimed that every Prime Minister she had lived under had been worse than the one who came before.
I invite readers to consider what horrors may be to come after Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn have both had a go. We shall truly look back on Theresa May's time in office as a golden age.
Boris can't possibly be worse than May. Corbyn will probably be the worst in living memory if he gets the chance.
Celtic v Rangers and it goes back decades. It happened when I lived in Edinburgh in the 1960' s
No excuse for it now G , just morons. Most people grew up.
Is it actually sectarian or is it unemployed young men wanting a punch up? (Genuine question - emphasising that because it’s sometimes hard to tell on the internet).
What makes you think they'd be "unemployed"?
I mean I’ll take that back if you like, but violence is predominantly unemployed young men. There’s bags of studies on it.
Seems curious. We have relatively few unemployed young men at the moment.
I'm not sure I buy this. The EU has a new Commission incoming and a new budget to set. Do they still want us in the way by the time this all kicks off - especially given that there would, presumably, still be no resolution of Brexit in sight under these circumstances?
It is of course a nonsense story, apart from it being in some sense real Someone suggested it, and I think Brown was prompted to float it. No matter what anyone says the EU will be making some efforts to find a way out - I've no idea if those efforts are big or small, serious or token. Brown pontificating, and then an EU leak is precisely the way they'd so such a thing. If you imagined what the EU might try, then this is precisely that.
They'll have at least one more try. I can't see who they have left in terms of cards to play though. If you're playing "Brown" then there's no so much in your hand.
Brown will surprise us all by his appointment to some european office or other soon by the way. Who could begrudge it when he's a man of such helpful comment.
Brown was pretty poor as PM. But compared to those who have come after he is a titan.
I am always reminded when someone makes a comment like this of the anecdote I once remember reading, about a voter (I think in John Major's time) who claimed that every Prime Minister she had lived under had been worse than the one who came before.
I invite readers to consider what horrors may be to come after Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn have both had a go. We shall truly look back on Theresa May's time in office as a golden age.
Boris can't possibly be worse than May. Corbyn will probably be the worst in living memory if he gets the chance.
The odious clown Boris is already worse than May and makes the risible Corbyn look like a statesman. This is not because May and Corbyn are anything other than utter shite, but because Johnson is a complete joke.
Celtic v Rangers and it goes back decades. It happened when I lived in Edinburgh in the 1960' s
No excuse for it now G , just morons. Most people grew up.
Is it actually sectarian or is it unemployed young men wanting a punch up? (Genuine question - emphasising that because it’s sometimes hard to tell on the internet).
What makes you think they'd be "unemployed"?
I mean I’ll take that back if you like, but violence is predominantly unemployed young men. There’s bags of studies on it.
Seems curious. We have relatively few unemployed young men at the moment.
Celtic v Rangers and it goes back decades. It happened when I lived in Edinburgh in the 1960' s
No excuse for it now G , just morons. Most people grew up.
Is it actually sectarian or is it unemployed young men wanting a punch up? (Genuine question - emphasising that because it’s sometimes hard to tell on the internet).
What makes you think they'd be "unemployed"?
I mean I’ll take that back if you like, but violence is predominantly unemployed young men. There’s bags of studies on it.
Seems curious. We have relatively few unemployed young men at the moment.
UK youth unemployment - quick cut-and-paste:
502,000 young people aged 16-24 were unemployed in April to June 2019, up 36,000 from the previous quarter and up 13,000 from the year before. By historical standards, unemployment levels for young people are very low.
For context, it is worth noting that the total population aged 16-24 has been declining in recent years; in April to June it was 87,000 less than a year before. The number of young people in employment decreased by 25,000 over the past year, while the number who are economically inactive (not in or looking for work) decreased by 74,000.
The unemployment rate (the proportion of the economically active population who are unemployed) for 16-24 year olds was 11.6% in April to June 2019. This is up from 10.8% in the previous quarter and up from 11.3% a year before.
The inactivity rate for young people is 37.6%. Over three quarters of young people who are economically inactive are in full-time education.
The UK youth unemployment rate was 10.4% in January-March 2019, compared to 14.4% for the European Union as a whole.
Celtic v Rangers and it goes back decades. It happened when I lived in Edinburgh in the 1960' s
No excuse for it now G , just morons. Most people grew up.
Is it actually sectarian or is it unemployed young men wanting a punch up? (Genuine question - emphasising that because it’s sometimes hard to tell on the internet).
What makes you think they'd be "unemployed"?
I mean I’ll take that back if you like, but violence is predominantly unemployed young men. There’s bags of studies on it.
Seems curious. We have relatively few unemployed young men at the moment.
And not much violence.... Are you actually arguing against the sociological causes of crime?
Celtic v Rangers and it goes back decades. It happened when I lived in Edinburgh in the 1960' s
No excuse for it now G , just morons. Most people grew up.
Is it actually sectarian or is it unemployed young men wanting a punch up? (Genuine question - emphasising that because it’s sometimes hard to tell on the internet).
Sectarian for sure, it was a parade by John Connelly Irish Flute Band in Govan , whoever thought that one up was crazy.
The echo chamber that is PB simply cannot get its head round the fact that the majority of the country want Brexit and dont see Johnson as either a clown or a villain.
Until they do they will continue to under-estimate him and so continue to lose...
But a source close to her said: “She was asked about her contact with her former colleague, she said she had seen the person socially quite recently in Westminster – hardly some discreet part of London. She was open about it and handed over both her phones. There’s no law about speaking to former colleagues.
“He then said ‘you’re fired’. Sonia is a dyed-in-the-wool Brexiteer, a passionate leaver – she was loyally behind the view of the government and delivery of Brexit.”
It emerged that there were no witnesses to her sacking by Cummings, who spoke to her in an office in Downing Street close to the prime minister’s. A former Whitehall source said: “She wasn’t offered to take anybody with her and she wasn’t told what the meeting was about.”...
Survation had the Cons 11% ahead at the start of the 2017 campaign. Doesn't look good for Johnson.
52% back a Deal minus the backstop, 52% back the Queen proroguing Parliament.
Opposition split down the middle with Swinson now overtaking Corbyn as best PM, looks very good for Johnson (plus there will be no dementia tax gaffes unlike 2017 from Boris)
Celtic v Rangers and it goes back decades. It happened when I lived in Edinburgh in the 1960' s
No excuse for it now G , just morons. Most people grew up.
Is it actually sectarian or is it unemployed young men wanting a punch up? (Genuine question - emphasising that because it’s sometimes hard to tell on the internet).
What makes you think they'd be "unemployed"?
I mean I’ll take that back if you like, but violence is predominantly unemployed young men. There’s bags of studies on it.
Seems curious. We have relatively few unemployed young men at the moment.
And not much violence.... Are you actually arguing against the sociological causes of crime?
No I'm not. Just seemed to me highly likely that Friday night, drink taken, plenty of trouble up and down the country amongst young men of all statuses. Really was no more or less than that.
Survation had the Cons 11% ahead at the start of the 2017 campaign. Doesn't look good for Johnson.
52% back a Deal minus the backstop, 52% back the Queen proroguing Parliament.
Opposition split down the middle with Swinson now overtaking Corbyn as best PM, looks very good for Johnson
There is going to be tactical voting on an epic scale so the Lib Dem / Labour split is irrelevant, it's their totals that matter. Also Labour vote will come up over any campaign and current don't knows will flood in just like in 2017.
There will be no deal without a backstop so irrelevant.
People think the Queen had to prorogue if the PM asks her to, they aren't condoning the act in the first place as we see by the fact only 39% think Johnson was right.
The Iowa Democratic Party announced Friday it will explore alternative formats for the state’s all-important 2020 caucus amid reports that the Democratic National Committee (DNC) intends to scrap plans to hold the nominating contest virtually.
Surprised they asked about Swinson but not Farage. Interested about the 2% points who would vote LD but don't think Swinson is best PM. Could just be noise.
Boris has more than Swinson and Corbyn put together.
Tell you what lads, let’s put him in charge of the country (unelected).
"Psychotic" usually relates schizophrenia. I don't think Bad Al had schizophrenia as he clearly states his brother was schizophrenic and he was worried he had the same condition but did not. It is possible to have schizophrenia and depression, which is called schizo-effective disorder. It maybe that Bad Al made a mistake where it quotes him as saying he had a psychotic breakdown as the article repeatedly says depression. Some very gifted people have suffered psychotic breakdowns and I would not hold it against him. His attitude and arrogance is certainly something to hold against him but serious mental illness. No.
I am sympathetic to sufferers of mental illness, but don’t consider it to be holding it against someone who has admitted psychotic episode, nervous breakdowns and alcoholism when I say I don’t want them having as much of a say of when we bomb cities and how we run the country as Alastair Campbell did because of those issues
Survation had the Cons 11% ahead at the start of the 2017 campaign. Doesn't look good for Johnson.
52% back a Deal minus the backstop, 52% back the Queen proroguing Parliament.
Opposition split down the middle with Swinson now overtaking Corbyn as best PM, looks very good for Johnson
There is going to be tactical voting on an epic scale so the Lib Dem / Labour split is irrelevant, it's their totals that matter. Also Labour vote will come up over any campaign and current don't knows will flood in just like in 2017.
There will be no deal without a backstop so irrelevant.
People think the Queen had to prorogue if the PM asks her to, they aren't condoning the act in the first place as we see by the fact only 39% think Johnson was right.
Johnson is screwed on these figures.
If anyone thinks the Tories will be taking seats from the SNP in Scotland, please contact me about some magic beans I have going cheap ...
It’s clear that Cummings is now running the country. He is not only totally unaccountable, but also completely unhinged. What could possibly go wrong?
If Bad Al spinning for New Labour is anything to go by, 3 resounding election victories.
Campbell never ran the country. Cummings does.
Ha ha ha...you think Campbell "never ran the country"?!
Bless....
I am trying to imagine a situation where Campbell would sack one of Brown’s team without telling Brown. It’s just not working for me.
It is for me....
You are clearly unfamiliar with the workings of the Blair governments.
Bless you.
Until you people start seeing through the red mist and begin to understand whats going on here, you are going to go on losing. You really are!
My guess is that BoJo is going to win...with a landslide.
I'm sure you'd love that to be true, but care to explain where exactly, once they have lost their Scottish seats and a bunch of seats in the South, starting as they are from something way south of a majority?
But a source close to her said: “She was asked about her contact with her former colleague, she said she had seen the person socially quite recently in Westminster – hardly some discreet part of London. She was open about it and handed over both her phones. There’s no law about speaking to former colleagues.
“He then said ‘you’re fired’. Sonia is a dyed-in-the-wool Brexiteer, a passionate leaver – she was loyally behind the view of the government and delivery of Brexit.”
It emerged that there were no witnesses to her sacking by Cummings, who spoke to her in an office in Downing Street close to the prime minister’s. A former Whitehall source said: “She wasn’t offered to take anybody with her and she wasn’t told what the meeting was about.”...
If that last paragraph is correct, then for most businesses Cummings would now be facing disciplinary measures.
The Tories gaining seats from the SNP in Scotland. Hmmmm.
Quite an understated reaction.
I dont think the Tories will so well in the upcoming snap election, but I can envisage how they might succeed if I am wrong. I struggle to see that with regards Scotland though.
Opinion polling a few weeks out from the last General Election transpired to have no predictive validity when it came to the final outcome. This time around the starting pistol for the election campaign has still yet to be fired, nobody can be sure when it will be, and equally nobody can be sure whether or not the fight might be four-cornered in England this time around.
Clearly if that happens, and if the vote share of the two main parties is very low by historical standards, then we can also throw the predictions of the UNS calculators out of the window. All sorts of bizarre outcomes would then become possible.
Survation had the Cons 11% ahead at the start of the 2017 campaign. Doesn't look good for Johnson.
52% back a Deal minus the backstop, 52% back the Queen proroguing Parliament.
Opposition split down the middle with Swinson now overtaking Corbyn as best PM, looks very good for Johnson
There is going to be tactical voting on an epic scale so the Lib Dem / Labour split is irrelevant, it's their totals that matter. Also Labour vote will come up over any campaign and current don't knows will flood in just like in 2017.
There will be no deal without a backstop so irrelevant.
People think the Queen had to prorogue if the PM asks her to, they aren't condoning the act in the first place as we see by the fact only 39% think Johnson was right.
Johnson is screwed on these figures.
He just isnt. He really isnt! Please believe me...
The youth vote for Labour, for Labour, has halved since 2017 and it aint coming back. Labour is going to be reduced to its inner City and university heartlands. Until you all grasp this fact there is no hope for Labour.
Celtic v Rangers and it goes back decades. It happened when I lived in Edinburgh in the 1960' s
No excuse for it now G , just morons. Most people grew up.
Is it actually sectarian or is it unemployed young men wanting a punch up? (Genuine question - emphasising that because it’s sometimes hard to tell on the internet).
Sectarian for sure, it was a parade by John Connelly Irish Flute Band in Govan , whoever thought that one up was crazy.
Blimey, I was only at the southern end of the Clyde Arc last Monday week!
Survation had the Cons 11% ahead at the start of the 2017 campaign. Doesn't look good for Johnson.
52% back a Deal minus the backstop, 52% back the Queen proroguing Parliament.
Opposition split down the middle with Swinson now overtaking Corbyn as best PM, looks very good for Johnson
There is going to be tactical voting on an epic scale so the Lib Dem / Labour split is irrelevant, it's their totals that matter. Also Labour vote will come up over any campaign and current don't knows will flood in just like in 2017.
There will be no deal without a backstop so irrelevant.
People think the Queen had to prorogue if the PM asks her to, they aren't condoning the act in the first place as we see by the fact only 39% think Johnson was right.
Johnson is screwed on these figures.
Of course it matters, Swinson is now preferred to Corbyn as PM LD voters are NOT going to tactically vote Labour on anywhere like the scale they did in 2017.
The Tories and Brexit party total combined is also equal to the Labour and LD total combined so plenty more room for the Tories to squeeze the Brexit Party.
There is every chance of a deal with a technical solution as Macron and Merkel both gave Boris time to propose.
Just 1% difference on proroguing Parliament and a clear lead for opposition to further extension.
I'm surprised BXP is so high given Boris could hardly have proven his commitment to them any better. If the tories do win a majority we can all look forward to the fair weather pr supportes being outraged at it because of the quote low Tory score.
But a source close to her said: “She was asked about her contact with her former colleague, she said she had seen the person socially quite recently in Westminster – hardly some discreet part of London. She was open about it and handed over both her phones. There’s no law about speaking to former colleagues.
“He then said ‘you’re fired’. Sonia is a dyed-in-the-wool Brexiteer, a passionate leaver – she was loyally behind the view of the government and delivery of Brexit.”
It emerged that there were no witnesses to her sacking by Cummings, who spoke to her in an office in Downing Street close to the prime minister’s. A former Whitehall source said: “She wasn’t offered to take anybody with her and she wasn’t told what the meeting was about.”...
If that last paragraph is correct, then for most businesses Cummings would now be facing disciplinary measures.
Hubris. Bannon redux.
Hope he is aware that the minute he delivers Johnson his No Deal, should that happen, he will be out into the car park for a ride home with no return.
I'm not sure I buy this. The EU has a new Commission incoming and a new budget to set. Do they still want us in the way by the time this all kicks off - especially given that there would, presumably, still be no resolution of Brexit in sight under these circumstances?
It is of course a nonsense story, apart from it being in some sense real Someone suggested it, and I think Brown was prompted to float it. No matter what anyone says the EU will be making some efforts to find a way out - I've no idea if those efforts are big or small, serious or token. Brown pontificating, and then an EU leak is precisely the way they'd so such a thing. If you imagined what the EU might try, then this is precisely that.
They'll have at least one more try. I can't see who they have left in terms of cards to play though. If you're playing "Brown" then there's no so much in your hand.
Brown will surprise us all by his appointment to some european office or other soon by the way. Who could begrudge it when he's a man of such helpful comment.
Brown was pretty poor as PM. But compared to those who have come after he is a titan.
I am always reminded when someone makes a comment like this of the anecdote I once remember reading, about a voter (I think in John Major's time) who claimed that every Prime Minister she had lived under had been worse than the one who came before.
I invite readers to consider what horrors may be to come after Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn have both had a go. We shall truly look back on Theresa May's time in office as a golden age.
Boris can't possibly be worse than May. Corbyn will probably be the worst in living memory if he gets the chance.
The odious clown Boris is already worse than May and makes the risible Corbyn look like a statesman. This is not because May and Corbyn are anything other than utter shite, but because Johnson is a complete joke.
I'd question the assertion he is a joke. Unfortunately he is not a joke and that is the problem.
Survation had the Cons 11% ahead at the start of the 2017 campaign. Doesn't look good for Johnson.
52% back a Deal minus the backstop, 52% back the Queen proroguing Parliament.
Opposition split down the middle with Swinson now overtaking Corbyn as best PM, looks very good for Johnson
There is going to be tactical voting on an epic scale so the Lib Dem / Labour split is irrelevant, it's their totals that matter. Also Labour vote will come up over any campaign and current don't knows will flood in just like in 2017.
There will be no deal without a backstop so irrelevant.
People think the Queen had to prorogue if the PM asks her to, they aren't condoning the act in the first place as we see by the fact only 39% think Johnson was right.
Johnson is screwed on these figures.
He just isnt. He really isnt! Please believe me...
The youth vote for Labour, for Labour, has halved since 2017 and it aint coming back. Labour is going to be reduced to its inner City and university heartlands. Until you all grasp this fact there is no hope for Labour.
Labour is heading for its lowest voteshare in 100 years and utter humiliation on tonight's poll and still the Corbynistas think their Messiah walks on water!
Opinion polling a few weeks out from the last General Election transpired to have no predictive validity when it came to the final outcome. This time around the starting pistol for the election campaign has still yet to be fired, nobody can be sure when it will be, and equally nobody can be sure whether or not the fight might be four-cornered in England this time around.
Clearly if that happens, and if the vote share of the two main parties is very low by historical standards, then we can also throw the predictions of the UNS calculators out of the window. All sorts of bizarre outcomes would then become possible.
More pertinently, no one knows whether we will be in or out of the EU, nor indeed, how exactly that condition came about. The polls are as good as meaningless, unless everything goes as everyone expects. And since no one can agree what to expect, everyone can paint their own view of the future. So yeah. A guide to how we might vote tomorrow. But we aren't.
It’s clear that Cummings is now running the country. He is not only totally unaccountable, but also completely unhinged. What could possibly go wrong?
If Bad Al spinning for New Labour is anything to go by, 3 resounding election victories.
Campbell never ran the country. Cummings does.
Ha ha ha...you think Campbell "never ran the country"?!
Bless....
I am trying to imagine a situation where Campbell would sack one of Brown’s team without telling Brown. It’s just not working for me.
It is for me....
You are clearly unfamiliar with the workings of the Blair governments.
Bless you.
Until you people start seeing through the red mist and begin to understand whats going on here, you are going to go on losing. You really are!
My guess is that BoJo is going to win...with a landslide.
I'm sure you'd love that to be true, but care to explain where exactly, once they have lost their Scottish seats and a bunch of seats in the South, starting as they are from something way south of a majority?
For a start they arent going to lose their scottish seats. Some maybe, but not all. Labour look likely to lose all bit 1 or 2.
The left is split. The tories will lose seats in the WC but hoover up old Labour and Brexit votes (and so seats) in the west and east midlands and in the NW.
The Tories gaining seats from the SNP in Scotland. Hmmmm.
Though it has the SNP gaining Labour seats (I think it overestimates the LD gains from the Tories and underestimates SNP gains from the Tories)
On those Survation numbers, the Tories could not be confident of a majority. They need the YouGov ones. But the YouGov supplementals are much worse for them. It’s intriguing.
But a source close to her said: “She was asked about her contact with her former colleague, she said she had seen the person socially quite recently in Westminster – hardly some discreet part of London. She was open about it and handed over both her phones. There’s no law about speaking to former colleagues.
“He then said ‘you’re fired’. Sonia is a dyed-in-the-wool Brexiteer, a passionate leaver – she was loyally behind the view of the government and delivery of Brexit.”
It emerged that there were no witnesses to her sacking by Cummings, who spoke to her in an office in Downing Street close to the prime minister’s. A former Whitehall source said: “She wasn’t offered to take anybody with her and she wasn’t told what the meeting was about.”...
If that last paragraph is correct, then for most businesses Cummings would now be facing disciplinary measures.
Hubris. Bannon redux.
Hope he is aware that the minute he delivers Johnson his No Deal, should that happen, he will be out into the car park for a ride home with no return.
Expect to see him as a future fixture of right-wing US cable news channels.
Survation had the Cons 11% ahead at the start of the 2017 campaign. Doesn't look good for Johnson.
52% back a Deal minus the backstop, 52% back the Queen proroguing Parliament.
Opposition split down the middle with Swinson now overtaking Corbyn as best PM, looks very good for Johnson
There is going to be tactical voting on an epic scale so the Lib Dem / Labour split is irrelevant, it's their totals that matter. Also Labour vote will come up over any campaign and current don't knows will flood in just like in 2017.
There will be no deal without a backstop so irrelevant.
People think the Queen had to prorogue if the PM asks her to, they aren't condoning the act in the first place as we see by the fact only 39% think Johnson was right.
Johnson is screwed on these figures.
He just isnt. He really isnt! Please believe me...
The youth vote for Labour, for Labour, has halved since 2017 and it aint coming back. Labour is going to be reduced to its inner City and university heartlands. Until you all grasp this fact there is no hope for Labour.
Labour is heading for its lowest voteshare in 100 years and utter humiliation on tonight's poll and still the Corbynistas think their Messiah walks on water!
It's not rocket science - he defied predictions last time plus the situation and anger of their own supporters against the Tories is even more fired up, they believe that adds up to victory.
Might well be wrong but theres reasoning to it. I'd be wary of putting all eggs in the really good tactical anti Tory voting basket, which presumes a lot, but it's not surprising.
The Tories gaining seats from the SNP in Scotland. Hmmmm.
Im a scot. The tories have the unionist vote.
The last Scottish polling had the SCons on 18%, I'd have thought the Unionist vote was bigger than that. Of course the onset of BJ and departure of Ruthie may change things, and it would be fascinating to see the rationale that suggests those changes would be to the SCons' benefit.
But a source close to her said: “She was asked about her contact with her former colleague, she said she had seen the person socially quite recently in Westminster – hardly some discreet part of London. She was open about it and handed over both her phones. There’s no law about speaking to former colleagues.
“He then said ‘you’re fired’. Sonia is a dyed-in-the-wool Brexiteer, a passionate leaver – she was loyally behind the view of the government and delivery of Brexit.”
It emerged that there were no witnesses to her sacking by Cummings, who spoke to her in an office in Downing Street close to the prime minister’s. A former Whitehall source said: “She wasn’t offered to take anybody with her and she wasn’t told what the meeting was about.”...
If that last paragraph is correct, then for most businesses Cummings would now be facing disciplinary measures.
I presume if she fights back she's burned in the little industry forever.
The Tories gaining seats from the SNP in Scotland. Hmmmm.
Though it has the SNP gaining Labour seats (I think it overestimates the LD gains from the Tories and underestimates SNP gains from the Tories)
On those Survation numbers, the Tories could not be confident of a majority. The need the YouGov ones. But the YouGov supplemental date much wise for them. It’s intriguing.
Either way Corbyn is screwed I think, either a Boris majority or Swinson Kingmaker only possible outcomes from YouGov and Survation and that almost certainly means Corbyn will not be PM either way
Survation had the Cons 11% ahead at the start of the 2017 campaign. Doesn't look good for Johnson.
52% back a Deal minus the backstop, 52% back the Queen proroguing Parliament.
Opposition split down the middle with Swinson now overtaking Corbyn as best PM, looks very good for Johnson
There is going to be tactical voting on an epic scale so the Lib Dem / Labour split is irrelevant, it's their totals that matter. Also Labour vote will come up over any campaign and current don't knows will flood in just like in 2017.
There will be no deal without a backstop so irrelevant.
People think the Queen had to prorogue if the PM asks her to, they aren't condoning the act in the first place as we see by the fact only 39% think Johnson was right.
Johnson is screwed on these figures.
Of course it matters, Swinson is now preferred to Corbyn as PM LD voters are NOT going to tactically vote Labour on anywhere like the scale they did in 2017.
The Tories and Brexit party total combined is also equal to the Labour and LD total combined so plenty more room for the Tories to squeeze the Brexit Party.
There is every chance of a deal with a technical solution as Macron and Merkel both gave Boris time to propose.
Just 1% difference on proroguing Parliament and a clear lead for opposition to further extension.
Corbyn is absolutely screwed on those figures
I think you need to divorce wishful thinking and reality or you are setting yourself up for a big fall. Just because you desperately don't want tactical voting to take place to the extent it did in 2017 doesn't mean that will be the case. Just saying it ad infinitum won't magically make it come true I'm afraid, that's the sort of magical thinking most of us left behind in childhood.
There will be more tactical voting, if anything, as Labour voters are happier to lend the Lib Dems votes now where necessary than they were in 2017. I know I certainly am. And where there are incumbent Labour MPs, it will be easy to unite the anti-Tory vote around them.
And I forgot to add the Greens to the Lab/Lib Dem total, sorry.
You will not be getting your deal without a backstop, complete fantasy.
I'm surprised BXP is so high given Boris could hardly have proven his commitment to them any better. If the tories do win a majority we can all look forward to the fair weather pr supportes being outraged at it because of the quote low Tory score.
Con plus BP = 45, which is where it has been consistently for a very long time, give or take a couple of points. That figure is pretty much consistent with the Leave/Remain split, as currently polled. I cannot see either changing much until there is some clear resolution of Brexit, one way or the other.
Survation had the Cons 11% ahead at the start of the 2017 campaign. Doesn't look good for Johnson.
52% back a Deal minus the backstop, 52% back the Queen proroguing Parliament.
Opposition split down the middle with Swinson now overtaking Corbyn as best PM, looks very good for Johnson
There is going to be tactical voting on an epic scale so the Lib Dem / Labour split is irrelevant, it's their totals that matter. Also Labour vote will come up over any campaign and current don't knows will flood in just like in 2017.
There will be no deal without a backstop so irrelevant.
People think the Queen had to prorogue if the PM asks her to, they aren't condoning the act in the first place as we see by the fact only 39% think Johnson was right.
Johnson is screwed on these figures.
He just isnt. He really isnt! Please believe me...
The youth vote for Labour, for Labour, has halved since 2017 and it aint coming back. Labour is going to be reduced to its inner City and university heartlands. Until you all grasp this fact there is no hope for Labour.
Labour is heading for its lowest voteshare in 100 years and utter humiliation on tonight's poll and still the Corbynistas think their Messiah walks on water!
It's not rocket science - he defied predictions last time plus the situation and anger of their own supporters against the Tories is even more fired up, they believe that adds up to victory.
Might well be wrong but theres reasoning to it. I'd be wary of putting all eggs in the really good tactical anti Tory voting basket, which presumes a lot, but it's not surprising.
Ah...the old "Corbyn does OK on the day" argument.
He did it once, but then he was an unknown quantity. Indeed, immediately after the last GE he had positive leadership ratings of c40% and the equivalent to Mays's. The public know him better now and so that just isnt true anymore.
Corbyn is going to be eviscerated. I keep telling my Labour friends this but they dont want to believe it....
Jolyon Maugham is hardly a disinterested observer.
He’s simply reposted an official government tweet
His interpretations of it are his own however. Not that I disagree with his point here, but hes always going to take the most negative view one assumes.
The Tories gaining seats from the SNP in Scotland. Hmmmm.
Though it has the SNP gaining Labour seats (I think it overestimates the LD gains from the Tories and underestimates SNP gains from the Tories)
On those Survation numbers, the Tories could not be confident of a majority. The need the YouGov ones. But the YouGov supplemental date much wise for them. It’s intriguing.
Either way Corbyn is screwed I think, either a Boris majority or Swinson Kingmaker only possible outcomes from YouGov and Survation and that almost certainly means Corbyn will not be PM either way
Yes, for as long as Corbyn is there Labour are buggered. Their only hope is holding onto seats in England and Wales as a result of tactical voting. It may help in some places, but not everywhere. I expect Labour to lose at least 30 seats at a minimum in E&W, plus 6 out of 7 in Scotland.
Survation had the Cons 11% ahead at the start of the 2017 campaign. Doesn't look good for Johnson.
52% back a Deal minus the backstop, 52% back the Queen proroguing Parliament.
Opposition split down the middle with Swinson now overtaking Corbyn as best PM, looks very good for Johnson
There is going to be tactical voting on an epic scale so the Lib Dem / Labour split is irrelevant, it's their totals that matter. Also Labour vote will come up over any campaign and current don't knows will flood in just like in 2017.
There will be no deal without a backstop so irrelevant.
People think the Queen had to prorogue if the PM asks her to, they aren't condoning the act in the first place as we see by the fact only 39% think Johnson was right.
Johnson is screwed on these figures.
Of course it matters, Swinson is now preferred to Corbyn as PM LD voters are NOT going to tactically vote Labour on anywhere like the scale they did in 2017.
The Tories and Brexit party total combined is also equal to the Labour and LD total combined so plenty more room for the Tories to squeeze the Brexit Party.
There is every chance of a deal with a technical solution as Macron and Merkel both gave Boris time to propose.
Just 1% difference on proroguing Parliament and a clear lead for opposition to further extension.
Corbyn is absolutely screwed on those figures
I think you need to divorce wishful thinking and reality or you are setting yourself up for a big fall. Just because you desperately don't want tactical voting to take place to the extent it did in 2017 doesn't mean that will be the case. Just saying it ad infinitum won't magically make it come true I'm afraid, that's the sort of magical thinking most of us left behind in childhood.
There will be more tactical voting, if anything, as Labour voters are happier to lend the Lib Dems votes now where necessary than they were in 2017. I know I certainly am. And where there are incumbent Labour MPs, it will be easy to unite the anti-Tory vote around them.
And I forgot to add the Greens to the Lab/Lib Dem total, sorry.
You will not be getting your deal without a backstop, complete fantasy.
Deluded all round, really.
Divorcing wishful thinking and reality would really cut down on the content around here and for myself take too much effort.
The Tories gaining seats from the SNP in Scotland. Hmmmm.
Though it has the SNP gaining Labour seats (I think it overestimates the LD gains from the Tories and underestimates SNP gains from the Tories)
On those Survation numbers, the Tories could not be confident of a majority. They need the YouGov ones. But the YouGov supplementals are much worse for them. It’s intriguing.
Face it. Labour are screwed. The cult has been a fecking disaster for them.
At a time when we need a genuine opposition, Corbyn's fellow travellers and the spineless muppets who represent the PLP have a lot to answer for...
It’s clear that Cummings is now running the country. He is not only totally unaccountable, but also completely unhinged. What could possibly go wrong?
If Bad Al spinning for New Labour is anything to go by, 3 resounding election victories.
Campbell never ran the country. Cummings does.
Ha ha ha...you think Campbell "never ran the country"?!
Bless....
I am trying to imagine a situation where Campbell would sack one of Brown’s team without telling Brown. It’s just not working for me.
It is for me....
You are clearly unfamiliar with the workings of the Blair governments.
Bless you.
Until you people start seeing through the red mist and begin to understand whats going on here, you are going to go on losing. You really are!
My guess is that BoJo is going to win...with a landslide.
I'm sure you'd love that to be true, but care to explain where exactly, once they have lost their Scottish seats and a bunch of seats in the South, starting as they are from something way south of a majority?
For a start they arent going to lose their scottish seats. Some maybe, but not all. Labour look likely to lose all bit 1 or 2.
The left is split. The tories will lose seats in the WC but hoover up old Labour and Brexit votes (and so seats) in the west and east midlands and in the NW.
You are assuming im a tory.....
Just like they hoovered up Old Labour votes in 2017, like everyone said they would? The gap with the Tories is significantly less than at the equivalent point then. And the anti-tory vote is being increasingly united with every minute that Boris and Dom's cunning plans progress...
It’s clear that Cummings is now running the country. He is not only totally unaccountable, but also completely unhinged. What could possibly go wrong?
If Bad Al spinning for New Labour is anything to go by, 3 resounding election victories.
Campbell never ran the country. Cummings does.
Ha ha ha...you think Campbell "never ran the country"?!
Bless....
I am trying to imagine a situation where Campbell would sack one of Brown’s team without telling Brown. It’s just not working for me.
It is for me....
You are clearly unfamiliar with the workings of the Blair governments.
Bless you.
Until you people start seeing through the red mist and begin to understand whats going on here, you are going to go on losing. You really are!
My guess is that BoJo is going to win...with a landslide.
I'm sure you'd love that to be true, but care to explain where exactly, once they have lost their Scottish seats and a bunch of seats in the South, starting as they are from something way south of a majority?
For a start they arent going to lose their scottish seats. Some maybe, but not all. Labour look likely to lose all bit 1 or 2.
The left is split. The tories will lose seats in the WC but hoover up old Labour and Brexit votes (and so seats) in the west and east midlands and in the NW.
You are assuming im a tory.....
Just like they hoovered up Old Labour votes in 2017, like everyone said they would? The gap with the Tories is significantly less than at the equivalent point then. And the anti-tory vote is being increasingly united with every minute that Boris and Dom's cunning plans progress...
As i say, until you people face reality you are utterly, utterly screwed,
The Tories gaining seats from the SNP in Scotland. Hmmmm.
Though it has the SNP gaining Labour seats (I think it overestimates the LD gains from the Tories and underestimates SNP gains from the Tories)
On those Survation numbers, the Tories could not be confident of a majority. The need the YouGov ones. But the YouGov supplemental date much wise for them. It’s intriguing.
Either way Corbyn is screwed I think, either a Boris majority or Swinson Kingmaker only possible outcomes from YouGov and Survation and that almost certainly means Corbyn will not be PM either way
So Swinson would put Johnson back in power? I bet her voters would love that.
Survation had the Cons 11% ahead at the start of the 2017 campaign. Doesn't look good for Johnson.
52% back a Deal minus the backstop, 52% back the Queen proroguing Parliament.
Opposition split down the middle with Swinson now overtaking Corbyn as best PM, looks very good for Johnson
There is going to be tactical voting 't knows will flood in just like in 2017.
There will be no deal without a backstop so irrelevant.
People think the Queen had to prorogue by the fact only 39% think Johnson was right.
Johnson is screwed on these figures.
He just isnt. He really isnt! Please believe me...
The youth vote for Labour, for Labour, bour.
Labour is heading for its lowest voteshare water!
It's not rocket science - he defied predictions last time plus the situation and anger of their own supporters against the Tories is even more fired up, they believe that adds up to victory.
Might well be wrong but theres reasoning to it. I'd be wary of putting all eggs in the really good tactical anti Tory voting basket, which presumes a lot, but it's not surprising.
Ah...the old "Corbyn does OK on the day" argument.
He did it once, but then he was an unknown quantity. Indeed, immediately after the last GE he had positive leadership ratings of c40% and the equivalent to Mays's. The public know him better now and so that just isnt true anymore.
Corbyn is going to be eviscerated. I keep telling my Labour friends this but they dont want to believe it....
I didn't say I believed it either, but its pretty understandable that a lot of people wont believe forecasts of doom until they occur, given past events.
That said I do think BoJos actions simultaneously bolster him and undercut him, as it does encourage the votes against him, of holding ones nose to defeat him. But how many candidates BXP stand and if we have already left or not will be key.
It’s clear that Cummings is now running the country. He is not only totally unaccountable, but also completely unhinged. What could possibly go wrong?
If Bad Al spinning for New Labour is anything to go by, 3 resounding election victories.
Campbell never ran the country. Cummings does.
Ha ha ha...you think Campbell "never ran the country"?!
Bless....
I am trying to imagine a situation where Campbell would sack one of Brown’s team without telling Brown. It’s just not working for me.
It is for me....
You are clearly unfamiliar with the workings of the Blair governments.
Bless you.
Until you people start seeing through the red mist and begin to understand whats going on here, you are going to go on losing. You really are!
My guess is that BoJo is going to win...with a landslide.
I'm sure you'd love that to be true, but care to explain where exactly, once they have lost their Scottish seats and a bunch of seats in the South, starting as they are from something way south of a majority?
For a start they arent going to lose their scottish seats. Some maybe, but not all. Labour look likely to lose all bit 1 or 2.
The left is split. The tories will lose seats in the WC but hoover up old Labour and Brexit votes (and so seats) in the west and east midlands and in the NW.
You are assuming im a tory.....
Just like they hoovered up Old Labour votes in 2017, like everyone said they would? The gap with the Tories is significantly less than at the equivalent point then. And the anti-tory vote is being increasingly united with every minute that Boris and Dom's cunning plans progress...
Citation?
The pro-Brexit vote seems to be uniting behind the Tories but the anti-Brexit vote seems to be fragmenting between Labour and Lib Dems.
2017 was a disaster because Corbyn surprisingly hoovered up the anti-Tory vote, not because of tactical voting. I see no reason to think the Lib Dems will collapse this time like they did then.
The Tories gaining seats from the SNP in Scotland. Hmmmm.
Though it has the SNP gaining Labour seats (I think it overestimates the LD gains from the Tories and underestimates SNP gains from the Tories)
On those Survation numbers, the Tories could not be confident of a majority. The need the YouGov ones. But the YouGov supplemental date much wise for them. It’s intriguing.
Either way Corbyn is screwed I think, either a Boris majority or Swinson Kingmaker only possible outcomes from YouGov and Survation and that almost certainly means Corbyn will not be PM either way
So Swinson would put Johnson back in power? I bet her voters would love that.
No, she would put Ken Clarke or Harriet Harman in instead
Survation had the Cons 11% ahead at the start of the 2017 campaign. Doesn't look good for Johnson.
52% back a Deal minus the backstop, 52% back the Queen proroguing Parliament.
Opposition split down the middle with Swinson now overtaking Corbyn as best PM, looks very good for Johnson
There is going to be tactical voting on an epic scale so the Lib Dem / Labour split is irrelevant, it's their totals that matter. Also Labour vote will come up over any campaign and current don't knows will flood in just like in 2017.
There will be no deal without a backstop so irrelevant.
People think the Queen had to prorogue if the PM asks her to, they aren't condoning the act in the first place as we see by the fact only 39% think Johnson was right.
Johnson is screwed on these figures.
He just isnt. He really isnt! Please believe me...
The youth vote for Labour, for Labour, has halved since 2017 and it aint coming back. Labour is going to be reduced to its inner City and university heartlands. Until you all grasp this fact there is no hope for Labour.
Labour is heading for its lowest voteshare in 100 years and utter humiliation on tonight's poll and still the Corbynistas think their Messiah walks on water!
And in 2017, even after the exit poll, Tory loyalists still believed Theresa May was heading for a majority.
Survation had the Cons 11% ahead at the start of the 2017 campaign. Doesn't look good for Johnson.
52% back a Deal minus the backstop, 52% back the Queen proroguing Parliament.
Opposition split down the middle with Swinson now overtaking Corbyn as best PM, looks very good for Johnson
There is going to be tactical voting on an epic scale so the Lib Dem / Labour split is irrelevant, it's their totals that matter. Also Labour vote will come up over any campaign and current don't knows will flood in just like in 2017.
There will be no deal without a backstop so irrelevant.
People think the Queen had to prorogue if the PM asks her to, they aren't condoning the act in the first place as we see by the fact only 39% think Johnson was right.
Johnson is screwed on these figures.
He just isnt. He really isnt! Please believe me...
The youth vote for Labour, for Labour, has halved since 2017 and it aint coming back. Labour is going to be reduced to its inner City and university heartlands. Until you all grasp this fact there is no hope for Labour.
Labour is heading for its lowest voteshare in 100 years and utter humiliation on tonight's poll and still the Corbynistas think their Messiah walks on water!
Even if the poll was correct (as I say the Tories were significantly further ahead with Survation at a roughly equivalent point last time) am I not wrong to say it would be the second worst Tory vote share of all time after 1997?
The Tories gaining seats from the SNP in Scotland. Hmmmm.
Though it has the SNP gaining Labour seats (I think it overestimates the LD gains from the Tories and underestimates SNP gains from the Tories)
On those Survation numbers, the Tories could not be confident of a majority. The need the YouGov ones. But the YouGov supplemental date much wise for them. It’s intriguing.
Either way Corbyn is screwed I think, either a Boris majority or Swinson Kingmaker only possible outcomes from YouGov and Survation and that almost certainly means Corbyn will not be PM either way
Yes, for as long as Corbyn is there Labour are buggered. Their only hope is holding onto seats in England and Wales as a result of tactical voting. It may help in some places, but not everywhere. I expect Labour to lose at least 30 seats at a minimum in E&W, plus 6 out of 7 in Scotland.
It’s clear that Cummings is now running the country. He is not only totally unaccountable, but also completely unhinged. What could possibly go wrong?
If Bad Al spinning for New Labour is anything to go by, 3 resounding election victories.
Campbell never ran the country. Cummings does.
Ha ha ha...you think Campbell "never ran the country"?!
Bless....
I am trying to imagine a situation where Campbell would sack one of Brown’s team without telling Brown. It’s just not working for me.
It is for me....
You are clearly unfamiliar with the workings of the Blair governments.
Bless you.
Until you people start seeing through the red mist and begin to understand whats going on here, you are going to go on losing. You really are!
My guess is that BoJo is going to win...with a landslide.
I'm sure you'd love that to be true, but care to explain where exactly, once they have lost their Scottish seats and a bunch of seats in the South, starting as they are from something way south of a majority?
For a start they arent going to lose their scottish seats. Some maybe, but not all. Labour look likely to lose all bit 1 or 2.
The left is split. The tories will lose seats in the WC but hoover up old Labour and Brexit votes (and so seats) in the west and east midlands and in the NW.
You are assuming im a tory.....
Just like they hoovered up Old Labour votes in 2017, like everyone said they would? The gap with the Tories is significantly less than at the equivalent point then. And the anti-tory vote is being increasingly united with every minute that Boris and Dom's cunning plans progress...
As i say, until you people face reality you are utterly, utterly screwed,
Stop screaming into the gale....
An gale that can't be felt and in fact no evidence can be presented that it exists.
The Tories gaining seats from the SNP in Scotland. Hmmmm.
Though it has the SNP gaining Labour seats (I think it overestimates the LD gains from the Tories and underestimates SNP gains from the Tories)
On those Survation numbers, the Tories could not be confident of a majority. The need the YouGov ones. But the YouGov supplemental date much wise for them. It’s intriguing.
Either way Corbyn is screwed I think, either a Boris majority or Swinson Kingmaker only possible outcomes from YouGov and Survation and that almost certainly means Corbyn will not be PM either way
So Swinson would put Johnson back in power? I bet her voters would love that.
No, she would put Ken Clarke or Harriet Harman in instead
The Tories gaining seats from the SNP in Scotland. Hmmmm.
Though it has the SNP gaining Labour seats (I think it overestimates the LD gains from the Tories and underestimates SNP gains from the Tories)
On those Survation numbers, the Tories could not be confident of a majority. The need the YouGov ones. But the YouGov supplemental date much wise for them. It’s intriguing.
Either way Corbyn is screwed I think, either a Boris majority or Swinson Kingmaker only possible outcomes from YouGov and Survation and that almost certainly means Corbyn will not be PM either way
So Swinson would put Johnson back in power? I bet her voters would love that.
No, she would put Ken Clarke or Harriet Harman in instead
Neither would be on offer.
Swinson would never support Corbyn as PM, so if Labour MPs do not back Clarke or Harman they get Boris by default then
It’s clear that Cummings is now running the country. He is not only totally unaccountable, but also completely unhinged. What could possibly go wrong?
If Bad Al spinning for New Labour is anything to go by, 3 resounding election victories.
Campbell never ran the country. Cummings does.
Ha ha ha...you think Campbell "never ran the country"?!
Bless....
I am trying to imagine a situation where Campbell would sack one of Brown’s team without telling Brown. It’s just not working for me.
It is for me....
You are clearly unfamiliar with the workings of the Blair governments.
Bless you.
Until you people start seeing through the red mist and begin to understand whats going on here, you are going to go on losing. You really are!
My guess is that BoJo is going to win...with a landslide.
I'm sure you'd love that to be true, but care to explain where exactly, once they have lost their Scottish seats and a bunch of seats in the South, starting as they are from something way south of a majority?
For a start they arent going to lose their scottish seats. Some maybe, but not all. Labour look likely to lose all bit 1 or 2.
The left is split. The tories will lose seats in the WC but hoover up old Labour and Brexit votes (and so seats) in the west and east midlands and in the NW.
You are assuming im a tory.....
Just like they hoovered up Old Labour votes in 2017, like everyone ress...
Citation?
The pro-Brexit vote seems to be uniting behind the Tories but the anti-Brexit vote seems to be fragmenting between Labour and Lib Dems.
2017 was a disaster because Corbyn surprisingly hoovered up the anti-Tory vote, not because of tactical voting. I see no reason to think the Lib Dems will collapse this time like they did then.
I'm very interested to see the red and yellow interactions this time. Vote yellow get blue would be the standard cry but the reds still need some of their supporters to back the yellows to take seats from the blues.
How closely can they align without undermining each other by aiding the Tories?
Survation had the Cons 11% ahead at the start of the 2017 campaign. Doesn't look good for Johnson.
52% back a Deal minus the backstop, 52% back the Queen proroguing Parliament.
Opposition split down the middle with Swinson now overtaking Corbyn as best PM, looks very good for Johnson
There is going to be tactical voting on an epic scale so the Lib Dem / Labour split is irrelevant, it's their totals that matter. Also Labour vote will come up over any campaign and current don't knows will flood in just like in 2017.
There will be no deal without a backstop so irrelevant.
People think the Queen had to prorogue if the PM asks her to, they aren't condoning the act in the first place as we see by the fact only 39% think Johnson was right.
Johnson is screwed on these figures.
He just isnt. He really isnt! Please believe me...
The youth vote for Labour, for Labour, has halved since 2017 and it aint coming back. Labour is going to be reduced to its inner City and university heartlands. Until you all grasp this fact there is no hope for Labour.
Labour is heading for its lowest voteshare in 100 years and utter humiliation on tonight's poll and still the Corbynistas think their Messiah walks on water!
And in 2017, even after the exit poll, Tory loyalists still believed Theresa May was heading for a majority.
Survation had just a 1% Tory lead on eve of poll 2017 compared to a 7% Tory lead tonight
It’s clear that Cummings is now running the country. He is not only totally unaccountable, but also completely unhinged. What could possibly go wrong?
If Bad Al spinning for New Labour is anything to go by, 3 resounding election victories.
Campbell never ran the country. Cummings does.
Ha ha ha...you think Campbell "never ran the country"?!
Bless....
I am trying to imagine a situation where Campbell would sack one of Brown’s team without telling Brown. It’s just not working for me.
It is for me....
You are clearly unfamiliar with the workings of the Blair governments.
Bless you.
Until you people start seeing through the red mist and begin to understand whats going on here, you are going to go on losing. You really are!
My guess is that BoJo is going to win...with a landslide.
I'm sure you'd love that to be true, but care to explain where exactly, once they have lost their Scottish seats and a bunch of seats in the South, starting as they are from something way south of a majority?
For a start they arent going to lose their scottish seats. Some maybe, but not all. Labour look likely to lose all bit 1 or 2.
Just like they hoovered up Old Labour votes in 2017, like everyone said they would? The gap with the Tories is significantly less than at the equivalent point then. And the anti-tory vote is being increasingly united with every minute that Boris and Dom's cunning plans progress...
Citation?
The pro-Brexit vote seems to be uniting behind the Tories but the anti-Brexit vote seems to be fragmenting between Labour and Lib Dems.
2017 was a disaster because Corbyn surprisingly hoovered up the anti-Tory vote, not because of tactical voting. I see no reason to think the Lib Dems will collapse this time like they did then.
They don't need to collapse. Corbyn did too well in places that could otherwise have gone Lib Dem with some tactical voting. This time the lib dems will be getting votes where they need them and labour will too. Enough to save the vast majority of the seats they have, in Labour's case, anyway.
Survation had the Cons 11% ahead at the start of the 2017 campaign. Doesn't look good for Johnson.
52% back a Deal minus the backstop, 52% back the Queen proroguing Parliament.
Opposition split down the middle with Swinson now overtaking Corbyn as best PM, looks very good for Johnson
There is going to be tactical voting on an epic scale so the Lib Dem / Labour split is irrelevant, it's their totals that matter. Also Labour vote will come up over any campaign and current don't knows will flood in just like in 2017.
There will be no deal without a backstop so irrelevant.
People think the Queen had to prorogue if the PM asks her to, they aren't condoning the act in the first place as we see by the fact only 39% think Johnson was right.
Johnson is screwed on these figures.
He just isnt. He really isnt! Please believe me...
The youth vote for Labour, for Labour, has halved since 2017 and it aint coming back. Labour is going to be reduced to its inner City and university heartlands. Until you all grasp this fact there is no hope for Labour.
Labour is heading for its lowest voteshare in 100 years and utter humiliation on tonight's poll and still the Corbynistas think their Messiah walks on water!
Even if the poll was correct (as I say the Tories were significantly further ahead with Survation at a roughly equivalent point last time) am I not wrong to say it would be the second worst Tory vote share of all time after 1997?
Maybe but the Tories would also win more seats than at any election in the last 27 years bar 2015, Labour would win fewer seats than at any time since 1983
Survation had the Cons 11% ahead at the start of the 2017 campaign. Doesn't look good for Johnson.
52% back a Deal minus the backstop, 52% back the Queen proroguing Parliament.
Opposition split down the middle with Swinson now overtaking Corbyn as best PM, looks very good for Johnson
There is going to be tactical voting on an epic scale so the Lib Dem / Labour split is irrelevant, it's their totals that matter. Also Labour vote will come up over any campaign and current don't knows will flood in just like in 2017.
There will be no deal without a backstop so irrelevant.
People think the Queen had to prorogue if the PM asks her to, they aren't condoning the act in the first place as we see by the fact only 39% think Johnson was right.
Johnson is screwed on these figures.
He just isnt. He really isnt! Please believe me...
The youth vote for Labour, for Labour, has halved since 2017 and it aint coming back. Labour is going to be reduced to its inner City and university heartlands. Until you all grasp this fact there is no hope for Labour.
Labour is heading for its lowest voteshare in 100 years and utter humiliation on tonight's poll and still the Corbynistas think their Messiah walks on water!
And in 2017, even after the exit poll, Tory loyalists still believed Theresa May was heading for a majority.
Survation had just a 1% Tory lead on eve of poll 2017 compared to a 7% Tory lead tonight
And do you anticipate that being the level of the eve of poll lead for the upcoming election?
Survation had the Cons 11% ahead at the start of the 2017 campaign. Doesn't look good for Johnson.
52% back a Deal minus the backstop, 52% back the Queen proroguing Parliament.
Opposition split down the middle with Swinson now overtaking Corbyn as best PM, looks very good for Johnson
There is going to be tactical voting on an epic scale so the Lib Dem / Labour split is irrelevant, it's their totals that matter. Also Labour vote will come up over any campaign and current don't knows will flood in just like in 2017.
There will be no deal without a backstop so irrelevant.
People think the Queen had to prorogue if the PM asks her to, they aren't condoning the act in the first place as we see by the fact only 39% think Johnson was right.
Johnson is screwed on these figures.
He just isnt. He really isnt! Please believe me...
The youth vote for Labour, for Labour, has halved since 2017 and it aint coming back. Labour is going to be reduced to its inner City and university heartlands. Until you all grasp this fact there is no hope for Labour.
Labour is heading for its lowest voteshare in 100 years and utter humiliation on tonight's poll and still the Corbynistas think their Messiah walks on water!
And in 2017, even after the exit poll, Tory loyalists still believed Theresa May was heading for a majority.
Survation had just a 1% Tory lead on eve of poll 2017 compared to a 7% Tory lead tonight
It's not the eve of the election in case you hadn't noticed. At the start of the campaign the Tories were 11% ahead. They are significantly less ahead than that now and the campaign hasn't even started.
Comments
Brown was the worst Chancellor of my lifetime and second-worst PM [after May].
Although re the latter Barber is a close runner up....
Fortunately he wont get the chance....
Tories 31%
Labour 24%
LDs 21%
Brexit Party 14%
Best PM
Boris 41%
Swinson 19%
Corbyn 17%
Was Boris right to prorogue Parliament?
Yes 39%
No 40%
Was Queen right to approve prorogation?
Yes 52%
No 29%
Support Brexit Deal if EU drops NI backstop?
Yes 52%
No 22%
Delay Brexit to get more time for a Deal?
Yes 42%
No 49%
Best leader of a 'National Unity' government?
Ken Clarke 32%
Jeremy Corbyn 21%
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7412505/Boriss-gamble-paying-Tory-lead-Labour-DOUBLES-three-weeks.html
Unwelcome news for the wishful thinking Remain majority on PB
502,000 young people aged 16-24 were unemployed in April to June 2019, up 36,000 from the previous quarter and up 13,000 from the year before. By historical standards, unemployment levels for young people are very low.
For context, it is worth noting that the total population aged 16-24 has been declining in recent years; in April to June it was 87,000 less than a year before. The number of young people in employment decreased by 25,000 over the past year, while the number who are economically inactive (not in or looking for work) decreased by 74,000.
The unemployment rate (the proportion of the economically active population who are unemployed) for 16-24 year olds was 11.6% in April to June 2019. This is up from 10.8% in the previous quarter and up from 11.3% a year before.
The inactivity rate for young people is 37.6%. Over three quarters of young people who are economically inactive are in full-time education.
The UK youth unemployment rate was 10.4% in January-March 2019, compared to 14.4% for the European Union as a whole.
source: https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN05871
Until they do they will continue to under-estimate him and so continue to lose...
Yes 52%
No 22%
Delay Brexit to get more time for a Deal?
Yes 42%
No 49%"
BOOM!
You know what to do Europe.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/30/sajid-javid-confronts-boris-johnson-over-advisers-sacking
Whitehall sources confirmed that the reason Khan was dismissed on the spot was because she had been in contact with people working with a group of Conservative politicians trying to block a no-deal Brexit, and over the claim that she had lied about her contact with them.
But a source close to her said: “She was asked about her contact with her former colleague, she said she had seen the person socially quite recently in Westminster – hardly some discreet part of London. She was open about it and handed over both her phones. There’s no law about speaking to former colleagues.
“He then said ‘you’re fired’. Sonia is a dyed-in-the-wool Brexiteer, a passionate leaver – she was loyally behind the view of the government and delivery of Brexit.”
It emerged that there were no witnesses to her sacking by Cummings, who spoke to her in an office in Downing Street close to the prime minister’s. A former Whitehall source said: “She wasn’t offered to take anybody with her and she wasn’t told what the meeting was about.”...
You are clearly unfamiliar with the workings of the Blair governments.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=31&LAB=24&LIB=21&Brexit=14&Green=2&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
"Hope" is not a strategy.
Opposition split down the middle with Swinson now overtaking Corbyn as best PM, looks very good for Johnson (plus there will be no dementia tax gaffes unlike 2017 from Boris)
Really was no more or less than that.
Ha ha ha.....
As i say i m no particular fan of BoJo's, but this is desperate stuff.
"2017"?!
There will be no deal without a backstop so irrelevant.
People think the Queen had to prorogue if the PM asks her to, they aren't condoning the act in the first place as we see by the fact only 39% think Johnson was right.
Johnson is screwed on these figures.
Until you people start seeing through the red mist and begin to understand whats going on here, you are going to go on losing. You really are!
My guess is that BoJo is going to win...with a landslide.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/459466-iowa-democratic-party-to-explore-alternatives-after-dnc-opposition-to
Boris has more than Swinson and Corbyn put together.
I dont think the Tories will so well in the upcoming snap election, but I can envisage how they might succeed if I am wrong. I struggle to see that with regards Scotland though.
Opinion polling a few weeks out from the last General Election transpired to have no predictive validity when it came to the final outcome. This time around the starting pistol for the election campaign has still yet to be fired, nobody can be sure when it will be, and equally nobody can be sure whether or not the fight might be four-cornered in England this time around.
Clearly if that happens, and if the vote share of the two main parties is very low by historical standards, then we can also throw the predictions of the UNS calculators out of the window. All sorts of bizarre outcomes would then become possible.
The youth vote for Labour, for Labour, has halved since 2017 and it aint coming back. Labour is going to be reduced to its inner City and university heartlands. Until you all grasp this fact there is no hope for Labour.
I’ve done that on the next thread, FPT style, you can’t be meaning that though. What do you mean?
The Tories and Brexit party total combined is also equal to the Labour and LD total combined so plenty more room for the Tories to squeeze the Brexit Party.
There is every chance of a deal with a technical solution as Macron and Merkel both gave Boris time to propose.
Just 1% difference on proroguing Parliament and a clear lead for opposition to further extension.
Corbyn is absolutely screwed on those figures
Hope he is aware that the minute he delivers Johnson his No Deal, should that happen, he will be out into the car park for a ride home with no return.
The polls are as good as meaningless, unless everything goes as everyone expects. And since no one can agree what to expect, everyone can paint their own view of the future.
So yeah. A guide to how we might vote tomorrow. But we aren't.
The left is split. The tories will lose seats in the WC but hoover up old Labour and Brexit votes (and so seats) in the west and east midlands and in the NW.
You are assuming im a tory.....
Might well be wrong but theres reasoning to it. I'd be wary of putting all eggs in the really good tactical anti Tory voting basket, which presumes a lot, but it's not surprising.
The last Scottish polling had the SCons on 18%, I'd have thought the Unionist vote was bigger than that. Of course the onset of BJ and departure of Ruthie may change things, and it would be fascinating to see the rationale that suggests those changes would be to the SCons' benefit.
There will be more tactical voting, if anything, as Labour voters are happier to lend the Lib Dems votes now where necessary than they were in 2017. I know I certainly am. And where there are incumbent Labour MPs, it will be easy to unite the anti-Tory vote around them.
And I forgot to add the Greens to the Lab/Lib Dem total, sorry.
You will not be getting your deal without a backstop, complete fantasy.
Deluded all round, really.
Oh the fecking irony.
He did it once, but then he was an unknown quantity. Indeed, immediately after the last GE he had positive leadership ratings of c40% and the equivalent to Mays's. The public know him better now and so that just isnt true anymore.
Corbyn is going to be eviscerated. I keep telling my Labour friends this but they dont want to believe it....
"Oh.. Jeremy Corbyn!!"
Boris won't voluntarily seek an extension and will fight Parliament tooth and nail to prevent one.
At a time when we need a genuine opposition, Corbyn's fellow travellers and the spineless muppets who represent the PLP have a lot to answer for...
Stop screaming into the gale....
That said I do think BoJos actions simultaneously bolster him and undercut him, as it does encourage the votes against him, of holding ones nose to defeat him. But how many candidates BXP stand and if we have already left or not will be key.
2017: Anti No Deal parties (LAB LD SNP PC) win 52-53% at GE
2018: Anti No Deal parties again win approx 52% at Euros
Conclusion:
Leave with A Deal is the only valid outcome.
The pro-Brexit vote seems to be uniting behind the Tories but the anti-Brexit vote seems to be fragmenting between Labour and Lib Dems.
2017 was a disaster because Corbyn surprisingly hoovered up the anti-Tory vote, not because of tactical voting. I see no reason to think the Lib Dems will collapse this time like they did then.
How closely can they align without undermining each other by aiding the Tories?