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Apparently Baemy has raised $12.5 million and spent $6 million, plus a little bit more that's concealed via accounting shenanigans like deferring pay so it gets booked in the next month.Nigelb said:
How much cash does the Klob have left ?
A serious consideration now for any candidates who have no certainty of staying in beyond September. A deficit can be a weighty impediment to a continuing political career.
https://www.opensecrets.org/2020-presidential-race/candidate?id=N00027500
As long as she doesn't get cut from the Oct/Nov/Dec debates I'd have thought that was enough to keep her in the race until Iowa, then if she does well there she can raise a load more off that - which is sort-of too late to start spending what with CA moving up the calendar, but it's still possible.
If you're the leading moderate candidate after the others fall over I guess there will be quite a lot of money available, if you're not too scrupulous to take it. Nearly all the advertising in the debates seems to have been bought out by healthcare companies that support the moderate plans over the Warren/Sanders ones...0 -
No that is 25%, 24% is closer to 20% than 30%justin124 said:
24% is actually mid-20s.HYUFD said:
Labour are in the low 20s with Mori and Yougov do they canThe_Taxman said:
Tony Blair is on the record as saying that the 2005 GE was one that Labour could not lose. He said this not out of arrogance but the fact he had 400 plus MPs in 2001 many of who were seeking re-election. Incumbency and the ability of an opposition to challenge a Government mean finite resources have to be concentrated on only a percentage of total seats. Blair could lose 70 seats and still have an overall majority in 2005! I think this is why the result was such a big majority for Labour of 66 given the support for Labour in that election. I doubt the Tories could pull a majority of 66 in a GE if they are polling in the mid 30s even if Labour are in the high 20s.dixiedean said:
We've been here before of course. 2005 saw a government returned with only a smidgen over a third of the vote.IanB2 said:
The advantage the Tories do have is that they will find it easier to overhaul the Brexit Party Ltd. than will the LibDems to overhaul Labour.dixiedean said:What is interesting, and, in no way am I trying to make out that 24% is anything other than dismal for Labour, is that is the 6th consecutive poll with them ahead of the LDs. With a new LD leader in place.
Reports of the end of the 2 party system are premature.
The advantage the LibDems have is that the Tories’ overhauling of the BXP is pushing voters across the cultural divide, giving the liberal/remainer side an increasing majority of the electorate.
The disadvantage our country has is that we cling to a flawed voting system that will reward the Tories more significantly for the former, hence there is the risk of electing an HY-style government on the back of a third of the vote that is opposed by a significant majority of our voters.
The difference being, it wasn't promoting a revolutionary policy viscerally opposed by 60%.0 -
Yes, I think your hubristic and very complacent attitude is the one that is prevalent in the Conservative party currently. My guess is that you underplay the desire of a large part of the electorate to prevent a No Deal Brexit. We shall find out, I guess.HYUFD said:
Centrist Remainers voted for Corbyn in 2017 which was the only reason he got close thinking he would stop Brexit, they will not make the same mistake again but vote LD.SouthamObserver said:I wonder how much more BXP vote there is left to squeeze for Johnson. Given the following Farage has 9% looks to be towards the bottom of their likely support. Clearly, the Tories are now favourites to win the next election, but being the pessimistic sort, if I were a Tory I'd be looking at that 50% for Labour, LibDem and Green, and it would be worrying me - especially given that the SNP will clean up in Scotland. The Tories have to hope and pray Corbyn stays in place and that he is now so toxic that even the No Deal Brexit Johnson has to deliver will fail to persuade anti-Tories to vote tactically.
The question at the next general election on today's Mori will be less whether the Tories win or not, which they likely will but whether Corbyn finally achieves what Foot failed to do and sees the Labour Party overtaken by the Liberals as the main party of the centre left, at least in voteshare.
Only once there is a non Corbynite leading the opposition are the Tories at real risk of losing power
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24% - 26% is mid 20s.HYUFD said:
No that is 25%, 24% is closer to 20% than 30%justin124 said:
24% is actually mid-20s.HYUFD said:
Labour are in the low 20s with Mori and Yougov do they canThe_Taxman said:
Tony Blair is on the record as saying that the 2005 GE was one that Labour could not lose. He said this not out of arrogance but the fact he had 400 plus MPs in 2001 many of who were seeking re-election. Incumbency and the ability of an opposition to challenge a Government mean finite resources have to be concentrated on only a percentage of total seats. Blair could lose 70 seats and still have an overall majority in 2005! I think this is why the result was such a big majority for Labour of 66 given the support for Labour in that election. I doubt the Tories could pull a majority of 66 in a GE if they are polling in the mid 30s even if Labour are in the high 20s.dixiedean said:
We've been here before of course. 2005 saw a government returned with only a smidgen over a third of the vote.IanB2 said:
The advantage the Tories do have is that they will find it easier to overhaul the Brexit Party Ltd. than will the LibDems to overhaul Labour.dixiedean said:What is interesting, and, in no way am I trying to make out that 24% is anything other than dismal for Labour, is that is the 6th consecutive poll with them ahead of the LDs. With a new LD leader in place.
Reports of the end of the 2 party system are premature.
The advantage the LibDems have is that the Tories’ overhauling of the BXP is pushing voters across the cultural divide, giving the liberal/remainer side an increasing majority of the electorate.
The disadvantage our country has is that we cling to a flawed voting system that will reward the Tories more significantly for the former, hence there is the risk of electing an HY-style government on the back of a third of the vote that is opposed by a significant majority of our voters.
The difference being, it wasn't promoting a revolutionary policy viscerally opposed by 60%.0 -
I give up with HYUFD, he only sees what he wants to see. I find his posts rather naive when talking about target seats and allocating resources. Mind you it is only something you become aware of working inside a political party HQ rather than in a constituency...justin124 said:
A 10% Tory lead would imply a clear majority , but HYUFD is exaggerating somewhat. It implies a swing in their favour of 3.75% - not 4% - and 35 gains from Labour - not 50.The Tory lead in 2017 GE was 2.5%.The_Taxman said:
I am sorry but I don't agree. You probably still think targeting Labour safe seats will result in gains as well! I am afraid you are in for a very nasty surprise if a GE is called anytime soon...HYUFD said:
Of course it is election winning, the 10% lead the Boris led Tory Party have over Corbyn Labour today is a bigger lead than Cameron had over Ed Miliband in 2015 or Major had over Kinnock in 1992, in fact according to Mori today Boris is head for the biggest Tory victory over Labour since Thatcher's 1987 win.The_Taxman said:
34% in the 1990s and 2000s was described as flatlining! Now you call it a bounce and election winning. How do you know 34% is not an overestimate?HYUFD said:
Yet that new Mori poll gives Boris a huge 54% to 27% lead over Corbyn as best PM and an election winning 34% to 24% lead for the Tories over Corbyn LabourTheScreamingEagles said:Mr Johnson starts with worse satisfaction ratings than Theresa May, Gordon Brown and John Major in their first month after entering office mid-Parliament.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labour-crisis-as-voters-say-party-should-dump-jeremy-corbyn-before-the-next-general-election-a4203251.html
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labour-crisis-as-voters-say-party-should-dump-jeremy-corbyn-before-the-next-general-election-a4203251.html
Both Yougov and Mori were the most accurate pollsters in the European Parliament elections and both give 10% Tory leads in their latest poll
Interesting that Mori does not show a Swinson bounce - with the LibDems dropping 2%.0 -
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Please tell me HYUFD is not going to argue that 24 is not mid-20s. Please!!justin124 said:
24% - 26% is mid 20s.HYUFD said:
No that is 25%, 24% is closer to 20% than 30%justin124 said:
24% is actually mid-20s.HYUFD said:
Labour are in the low 20s with Mori and Yougov do they canThe_Taxman said:
Tony Blair is on the record as saying that the 2005 GE was one that Labour could not lose. He said this not out of arrogance but the fact he had 400 plus MPs in 2001 many of who were seeking re-election. Incumbency and the ability of an opposition to challenge a Government mean finite resources have to be concentrated on only a percentage of total seats. Blair could lose 70 seats and still have an overall majority in 2005! I think this is why the result was such a big majority for Labour of 66 given the support for Labour in that election. I doubt the Tories could pull a majority of 66 in a GE if they are polling in the mid 30s even if Labour are in the high 20s.dixiedean said:
We've been here before of course. 2005 saw a government returned with only a smidgen over a third of the vote.IanB2 said:
The advantage the Tories do have is that they will find it easier to overhaul the Brexit Party Ltd. than will the LibDems to overhaul Labour.dixiedean said:What is interesting, and, in no way am I trying to make out that 24% is anything other than dismal for Labour, is that is the 6th consecutive poll with them ahead of the LDs. With a new LD leader in place.
Reports of the end of the 2 party system are premature.
The advantage the LibDems have is that the Tories’ overhauling of the BXP is pushing voters across the cultural divide, giving the liberal/remainer side an increasing majority of the electorate.
The disadvantage our country has is that we cling to a flawed voting system that will reward the Tories more significantly for the former, hence there is the risk of electing an HY-style government on the back of a third of the vote that is opposed by a significant majority of our voters.
The difference being, it wasn't promoting a revolutionary policy viscerally opposed by 60%.
Maybe we can all agree that 24% for the main party of opposition at a time like this is truly abysmal.
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TBF, his posts on geography add considerably to the gaiety of the nation.The_Taxman said:I give up with HYUFD, he only sees what he wants to see. I find his posts rather naive when talking about target seats and allocating resources. Mind you it is only something you become aware of working inside a political party HQ rather than in a constituency...
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No, I expect a Boris majority and Brexit delivered then the LDs to overtake Corbyn Labour as the main party of the centre left with Umunna or maybe Swinson perhaps winning the next general election after that.SouthamObserver said:
Yes, I think your hubristic and very complacent attitude is the one that is prevalent in the Conservative party currently. My guess is that you underplay the desire of a large part of the electorate to prevent a No Deal Brexit. We shall find out, I guess.HYUFD said:
Centrist Remainers voted for Corbyn in 2017 which was the only reason he got close thinking he would stop Brexit, they will not make the same mistake again but vote LD.SouthamObserver said:I wonder how much more BXP vote there is left to squeeze for Johnson. Given the following Farage has 9% looks to be towards the bottom of their likely support. Clearly, the Tories are now favourites to win the next election, but being the pessimistic sort, if I were a Tory I'd be looking at that 50% for Labour, LibDem and Green, and it would be worrying me - especially given that the SNP will clean up in Scotland. The Tories have to hope and pray Corbyn stays in place and that he is now so toxic that even the No Deal Brexit Johnson has to deliver will fail to persuade anti-Tories to vote tactically.
The question at the next general election on today's Mori will be less whether the Tories win or not, which they likely will but whether Corbyn finally achieves what Foot failed to do and sees the Labour Party overtaken by the Liberals as the main party of the centre left, at least in voteshare.
Only once there is a non Corbynite leading the opposition are the Tories at real risk of losing power
I am not expecting permanent Tory rule0 -
On 19 October 2018, The Rt Hon. Nick Clegg notified the Cabinet Office of his intention to relinquish his Public Duty Costs Allowance, confirming his decision to take up a full time role in the commercial sector and the closure of his private office from end of December. The Rt Hon. Nick Clegg confirmed that no further claim will be made for expenses incurred after December 2018TrèsDifficile said:
Then why does the government website think he's cost more than Cameron in the past year, when he got his job at Facebook in Oct 18?Richard_Nabavi said:
I believe that the arrangement has ended now that he is gainfully employed at Facebook.TrèsDifficile said:
The article says that it's now 5 - 4 ex leaders "as well as the former deputy PM Sir Nick Clegg".rottenborough said:
Be six by November with May and Johnson gone.HYUFD said:
WTAF is Vice President of Global Affairs and Communications at Facebook having his office supported by the British taxpayer?
£ 2018-19 2017-18
The Rt Hon. Sir John Major 114,935 115,000
The Rt Hon. Tony Blair 115,000 115,000
The Rt Hon. Gordon Brown 114,057 114,920
The Rt Hon. David Cameron 110,413 111,544
The Rt Hon. Sir Nick Clegg 112,882 115,000
Staff pension costs 21,425 39,524
Total 588,712 610,988
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/819295/page_85_public_duty_cost_allowance.csv/preview
https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/542851/response/1306572/attach/3/FOI327433 REPLY.pdf
I imagine the figures you quote relate to when the claims were paid by the government, which may be some time after they were incurred.0 -
It is you being naive suggesting a 4% swing to the Tories would see no Labour seats lostThe_Taxman said:
I give up with HYUFD, he only sees what he wants to see. I find his posts rather naive when talking about target seats and allocating resources. Mind you it is only something you become aware of working inside a political party HQ rather than in a constituency...justin124 said:
A 10% Tory lead would imply a clear majority , but HYUFD is exaggerating somewhat. It implies a swing in their favour of 3.75% - not 4% - and 35 gains from Labour - not 50.The Tory lead in 2017 GE was 2.5%.The_Taxman said:
I am sorry but I don't agree. You probably still think targeting Labour safe seats will result in gains as well! I am afraid you are in for a very nasty surprise if a GE is called anytime soon...HYUFD said:
Of course it is election winning, the 10% lead the Boris led Tory Party have over Corbyn Labour today is a bigger lead than Cameron had over Ed Miliband in 2015 or Major had over Kinnock in 1992, in fact according to Mori today Boris is head for the biggest Tory victory over Labour since Thatcher's 1987 win.The_Taxman said:
34% in the 1990s and 2000s was described as flatlining! Now you call it a bounce and election winning. How do you know 34% is not an overestimate?HYUFD said:
Yet that new Mori poll gives Boris a huge 54% to 27% lead over Corbyn as best PM and an election winning 34% to 24% lead for the Tories over Corbyn LabourTheScreamingEagles said:Mr Johnson starts with worse satisfaction ratings than Theresa May, Gordon Brown and John Major in their first month after entering office mid-Parliament.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labour-crisis-as-voters-say-party-should-dump-jeremy-corbyn-before-the-next-general-election-a4203251.html
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labour-crisis-as-voters-say-party-should-dump-jeremy-corbyn-before-the-next-general-election-a4203251.html
Both Yougov and Mori were the most accurate pollsters in the European Parliament elections and both give 10% Tory leads in their latest poll
Interesting that Mori does not show a Swinson bounce - with the LibDems dropping 2%.0 -
You believe the next election is in the bag and that the Tories will win a workable majority for the first time since 1992. That is hubris and complacency.HYUFD said:
No, I expect a Boris majority and Brexit delivered then the LDs to overtake Corbyn Labour as the main party of the centre left with Umunna or maybe Swinson winning the next general election after that.SouthamObserver said:
Yes, I think your hubristic and very complacent attitude is the one that is prevalent in the Conservative party currently. My guess is that you underplay the desire of a large part of the electorate to prevent a No Deal Brexit. We shall find out, I guess.HYUFD said:
Centrist Remainers voted for Corbyn in 2017 which was the only reason he got close thinking he would stop Brexit, they will not make the same mistake again but vote LD.SouthamObserver said:I wonder how much more BXP vote there is left to squeeze for Johnson. Given the following Farage has 9% looks to be towards the bottom of their likely support. Clearly, the Tories are now favourites to win the next election, but being the pessimistic sort, if I were a Tory I'd be looking at that 50% for Labour, LibDem and Green, and it would be worrying me - especially given that the SNP will clean up in Scotland. The Tories have to hope and pray Corbyn stays in place and that he is now so toxic that even the No Deal Brexit Johnson has to deliver will fail to persuade anti-Tories to vote tactically.
The question at the next general election on today's Mori will be less whether the Tories win or not, which they likely will but whether Corbyn finally achieves what Foot failed to do and sees the Labour Party overtaken by the Liberals as the main party of the centre left, at least in voteshare.
Only once there is a non Corbynite leading the opposition are the Tories at real risk of losing power
I am not expecting permanent Tory rule
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But it is not 4%.HYUFD said:
It is you being naive suggesting a 4% swing to the Tories would see no Labour seats lostThe_Taxman said:
I give up with HYUFD, he only sees what he wants to see. I find his posts rather naive when talking about target seats and allocating resources. Mind you it is only something you become aware of working inside a political party HQ rather than in a constituency...justin124 said:
A 10% Tory lead would imply a clear majority , but HYUFD is exaggerating somewhat. It implies a swing in their favour of 3.75% - not 4% - and 35 gains from Labour - not 50.The Tory lead in 2017 GE was 2.5%.The_Taxman said:
I am sorry but I don't agree. You probably still think targeting Labour safe seats will result in gains as well! I am afraid you are in for a very nasty surprise if a GE is called anytime soon...HYUFD said:
Of course it is election winning, the 10% lead the Boris led Tory Party have over Corbyn Labour today is a bigger lead than Cameron had over Ed Miliband in 2015 or Major had over Kinnock in 1992, in fact according to Mori today Boris is head for the biggest Tory victory over Labour since Thatcher's 1987 win.The_Taxman said:
34% in the 1990s and 2000s was described as flatlining! Now you call it a bounce and election winning. How do you know 34% is not an overestimate?HYUFD said:
Yet that new Mori poll gives Boris a huge 54% to 27% lead over Corbyn as best PM and an election winning 34% to 24% lead for the Tories over Corbyn LabourTheScreamingEagles said:Mr Johnson starts with worse satisfaction ratings than Theresa May, Gordon Brown and John Major in their first month after entering office mid-Parliament.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labour-crisis-as-voters-say-party-should-dump-jeremy-corbyn-before-the-next-general-election-a4203251.html
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labour-crisis-as-voters-say-party-should-dump-jeremy-corbyn-before-the-next-general-election-a4203251.html
Both Yougov and Mori were the most accurate pollsters in the European Parliament elections and both give 10% Tory leads in their latest poll
Interesting that Mori does not show a Swinson bounce - with the LibDems dropping 2%.0 -
The EMA including the latest YouGov and Mori polls gives:
Con 28%, Lab 24%, LD 19%, BXP 16%
In terms of seats (Electoral Calculus 1st figure, Flavible 2nd figure):
Con 292 288
Lab 228 223
LD 49 62
BXP 7 3
Grn 1 1
PC 3 4
SNP 52 51
Con+BXP+DUP is 309 301
Lab+LD+SNP is 327 336
So still a minority Lab government.
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So that is two full terms for Boris...noooo!HYUFD said:
No, I expect a Boris majority and Brexit delivered then the LDs to overtake Corbyn Labour as the main party of the centre left with Umunna or maybe Swinson perhaps winning the next general election after that.SouthamObserver said:
Yes, I think your hubristic and very complacent attitude is the one that is prevalent in the Conservative party currently. My guess is that you underplay the desire of a large part of the electorate to prevent a No Deal Brexit. We shall find out, I guess.HYUFD said:
Centrist Remainers voted for Corbyn in 2017 which was the only reason he got close thinking he would stop Brexit, they will not make the same mistake again but vote LD.SouthamObserver said:I wonder how much more BXP vote there is left to squeeze for Johnson. Given the following Farage has 9% looks to be towards the bottom of their likely support. Clearly, the Tories are now favourites to win the next election, but being the pessimistic sort, if I were a Tory I'd be looking at that 50% for Labour, LibDem and Green, and it would be worrying me - especially given that the SNP will clean up in Scotland. The Tories have to hope and pray Corbyn stays in place and that he is now so toxic that even the No Deal Brexit Johnson has to deliver will fail to persuade anti-Tories to vote tactically.
The question at the next general election on today's Mori will be less whether the Tories win or not, which they likely will but whether Corbyn finally achieves what Foot failed to do and sees the Labour Party overtaken by the Liberals as the main party of the centre left, at least in voteshare.
Only once there is a non Corbynite leading the opposition are the Tories at real risk of losing power
I am not expecting permanent Tory rule0 -
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He is right that the voting system gives the Tories the edge. The question is how quickly the moderates within Labour abandon their denial and see the writing on the wall.SouthamObserver said:
You believe the next election is in the bag and that the Tories will win a workable majority for the first time since 1992. That is hubris and complacency.HYUFD said:
No, I expect a Boris majority and Brexit delivered then the LDs to overtake Corbyn Labour as the main party of the centre left with Umunna or maybe Swinson winning the next general election after that.SouthamObserver said:
Yes, I think your hubristic and very complacent attitude is the one that is prevalent in the Conservative party currently. My guess is that you underplay the desire of a large part of the electorate to prevent a No Deal Brexit. We shall find out, I guess.HYUFD said:
Centrist Remainers voted for Corbyn in 2017 which was the only reason he got close thinking he would stop Brexit, they will not make the same mistake again but vote LD.SouthamObserver said:I wonder how much more BXP vote there is left to squeeze for Johnson. Given the following Farage has 9% looks to be towards the bottom of their likely support. Clearly, the Tories are now favourites to win the next election, but being the pessimistic sort, if I were a Tory I'd be looking at that 50% for Labour, LibDem and Green, and it would be worrying me - especially given that the SNP will clean up in Scotland. The Tories have to hope and pray Corbyn stays in place and that he is now so toxic that even the No Deal Brexit Johnson has to deliver will fail to persuade anti-Tories to vote tactically.
The question at the next general election on today's Mori will be less whether the Tories win or not, which they likely will but whether Corbyn finally achieves what Foot failed to do and sees the Labour Party overtaken by the Liberals as the main party of the centre left, at least in voteshare.
Only once there is a non Corbynite leading the opposition are the Tories at real risk of losing power
I am not expecting permanent Tory rule0 -
After nine years in opposition it is little short of flabbergasting. It's even worse given that we have a government that would not pass muster in Central America.SouthamObserver said:
Please tell me HYUFD is not going to argue that 24 is not mid-20s. Please!!justin124 said:
24% - 26% is mid 20s.HYUFD said:
No that is 25%, 24% is closer to 20% than 30%justin124 said:
24% is actually mid-20s.HYUFD said:
Labour are in the low 20s with Mori and Yougov do they canThe_Taxman said:
Tony Blair is on the record as saying that the 2005 GE was one that Labour could not lose. He said this not out of arrogance but the fact he had 400 plus MPs in 2001 many of who were seeking re-election. Incumbency and the ability of an opposition to challenge a Government mean finite resources have to be concentrated on only a percentage of total seats. Blair could lose 70 seats and still have an overall majority in 2005! I think this is why the result was such a big majority for Labour of 66 given the support for Labour in that election. I doubt the Tories could pull a majority of 66 in a GE if they are polling in the mid 30s even if Labour are in the high 20s.dixiedean said:
We've been here before of course. 2005 saw a government returned with only a smidgen over a third of the vote.IanB2 said:
The advantage the Tories do have is that they will find it easier to overhaul the Brexit Party Ltd. than will the LibDems to overhaul Labour.dixiedean said:What is interesting, and, in no way am I trying to make out that 24% is anything other than dismal for Labour, is that is the 6th consecutive poll with them ahead of the LDs. With a new LD leader in place.
Reports of the end of the 2 party system are premature.
The advantage the LibDems have is that the Tories’ overhauling of the BXP is pushing voters across the cultural divide, giving the liberal/remainer side an increasing majority of the electorate.
The disadvantage our country has is that we cling to a flawed voting system that will reward the Tories more significantly for the former, hence there is the risk of electing an HY-style government on the back of a third of the vote that is opposed by a significant majority of our voters.
The difference being, it wasn't promoting a revolutionary policy viscerally opposed by 60%.
Maybe we can all agree that 24% for the main party of opposition at a time like this is truly abysmal.0 -
This thread has
gone to vote.
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How many seats do you expect the Tories to lose in Scotland?HYUFD said:
It is you being naive suggesting a 4% swing to the Tories would see no Labour seats lostThe_Taxman said:
I give up with HYUFD, he only sees what he wants to see. I find his posts rather naive when talking about target seats and allocating resources. Mind you it is only something you become aware of working inside a political party HQ rather than in a constituency...justin124 said:
A 10% Tory lead would imply a clear majority , but HYUFD is exaggerating somewhat. It implies a swing in their favour of 3.75% - not 4% - and 35 gains from Labour - not 50.The Tory lead in 2017 GE was 2.5%.The_Taxman said:
I am sorry but I don't agree. You probably still think targeting Labour safe seats will result in gains as well! I am afraid you are in for a very nasty surprise if a GE is called anytime soon...HYUFD said:
Of course it is election winning, the 10% lead the Boris led Tory Party have over Corbyn Labour today is a bigger lead than Cameron had over Ed Miliband in 2015 or Major had over Kinnock in 1992, in fact according to Mori today Boris is head for the biggest Tory victory over Labour since Thatcher's 1987 win.The_Taxman said:
34% in the 1990s and 2000s was described as flatlining! Now you call it a bounce and election winning. How do you know 34% is not an overestimate?HYUFD said:
Yet that new Mori poll gives Boris a huge 54% to 27% lead over Corbyn as best PM and an election winning 34% to 24% lead for the Tories over Corbyn LabourTheScreamingEagles said:Mr Johnson starts with worse satisfaction ratings than Theresa May, Gordon Brown and John Major in their first month after entering office mid-Parliament.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labour-crisis-as-voters-say-party-should-dump-jeremy-corbyn-before-the-next-general-election-a4203251.html
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labour-crisis-as-voters-say-party-should-dump-jeremy-corbyn-before-the-next-general-election-a4203251.html
Both Yougov and Mori were the most accurate pollsters in the European Parliament elections and both give 10% Tory leads in their latest poll
Interesting that Mori does not show a Swinson bounce - with the LibDems dropping 2%.
How many do you expect them to lose to the Lib Dem’s?
How many (net) to gain from Labour?
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Today's poll would imply 35 gains from Labour - partially offset by 13 losses to the LibDems and 10 to the SNP. The net gain of 12 seats would take the Tories to 330 - slightly lower than Cameron's 2015 total.0
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Yeah, I got that, I am just curious why it is OK for him to write them and say them in a speech, but not for staff to write them so someone else can read them...FrancisUrquhart said:It was drawn up by his staff for LETTERS, which it appears that if you write those when he reviews them he crosses them out (so use another one).
I think Mr Meeks stated at the time his minions have a similar list for similar reasons.0 -
As well as Brecon and Radnorshire there are 2 local by-elections today. There are Lib Dem defences in Huntingdonshire and Stockport. So we could see a Lib Dem hat-trick on the first Ashes day.1
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lol - It is actually possible for seat movements not to mirror UNS you know? It is all about incumbency, tactical voting and party machines. Elections are not 'won' on the day but the years leading up to them. You are I am sorry to say very naive on how you think TBP for instance could suddenly win hundreds of seats if the Tories don't do X or Y. From someone who has worked on the inside I can sum it up as you not being able to see the wood for the trees...HYUFD said:
It is you being naive suggesting a 4% swing to the Tories would see no Labour seats lostThe_Taxman said:
I give up with HYUFD, he only sees what he wants to see. I find his posts rather naive when talking about target seats and allocating resources. Mind you it is only something you become aware of working inside a political party HQ rather than in a constituency...justin124 said:
A 10% Tory lead would imply a clear majority , but HYUFD is exaggerating somewhat. It implies a swing in their favour of 3.75% - not 4% - and 35 gains from Labour - not 50.The Tory lead in 2017 GE was 2.5%.The_Taxman said:
I am sorry but I don't agree. You probably still think targeting Labour safe seats will result in gains as well! I am afraid you are in for a very nasty surprise if a GE is called anytime soon...HYUFD said:
Of course it is election winning, the 10% lead the Boris led Tory Party have over Corbyn Labour today is a bigger lead than Cameron had over Ed Miliband in 2015 or Major had over Kinnock in 1992, in fact according to Mori today Boris is head for the biggest Tory victory over Labour since Thatcher's 1987 win.The_Taxman said:
34% in the 1990s and 2000s was described as flatlining! Now you call it a bounce and election winning. How do you know 34% is not an overestimate?HYUFD said:
Yet that new Mori poll gives Boris a huge 54% to 27% lead over Corbyn as best PM and an election winning 34% to 24% lead for the Tories over Corbyn LabourTheScreamingEagles said:Mr Johnson starts with worse satisfaction ratings than Theresa May, Gordon Brown and John Major in their first month after entering office mid-Parliament.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labour-crisis-as-voters-say-party-should-dump-jeremy-corbyn-before-the-next-general-election-a4203251.html
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labour-crisis-as-voters-say-party-should-dump-jeremy-corbyn-before-the-next-general-election-a4203251.html
Both Yougov and Mori were the most accurate pollsters in the European Parliament elections and both give 10% Tory leads in their latest poll
Interesting that Mori does not show a Swinson bounce - with the LibDems dropping 2%.
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That made me laugh. What a turnip.Chris said:
If we are going to leave with No Deal, then in a sense the more dubious the legality of the government's actions the better, because at least that provides a prospect of justice for the victims and punishment of the guilty at a later date.DougSeal said:
Anyone with half a sense of history knows that the executive suspending the legislature to enforce what it interprets as being “the will of the people” will shudder in fear at reading your post.HYUFD said:
No, given Parliament has ignored the largest vote in post war history by refusing to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement or No Deal outside the wealthier parts of inner London I doubt there will be many protests if Boris prorogues Parliament to enforce the will of the people.Gardenwalker said:Obviously if Boris does attempt to prorogue or otherwise subvert Parliament, the correct response is civil insurrection.
Though a general election soon after may be necessary
As soon as a choice between more than two simple alternatives is involved, there is often no clear answer to the question of what a majority favours. Moreover, because governments have to interpret the results of referendums, the will of the people becomes a means for strengthening executive control – the exact opposite of what appealing to the people’s will seemed to imply.
If Boris prorogues Parliament because of his interpretation of “the will of the people” a horrible precedent will be set. He will be saying that his authority comes from a source superior to Parliament and only he can interpret what that is. It is essentially fascism.0 -
Astonishing to think that Boris, the man who models himself on Churchill even in voice and mannerisms, may go down in history as, literally, Britain's first bona fide dictator.DougSeal said:
Anyone with half a sense of history knows that the executive suspending the legislature to enforce what it interprets as being “the will of the people” will shudder in fear at reading your post.HYUFD said:
No, given Parliament has ignored the largest vote in post war history by refusing to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement or No Deal outside the wealthier parts of inner London I doubt there will be many protests if Boris prorogues Parliament to enforce the will of the people.Gardenwalker said:Obviously if Boris does attempt to prorogue or otherwise subvert Parliament, the correct response is civil insurrection.
Though a general election soon after may be necessary
As soon as a choice between more than two simple alternatives is involved, there is often no clear answer to the question of what a majority favours. Moreover, because governments have to interpret the results of referendums, the will of the people becomes a means for strengthening executive control – the exact opposite of what appealing to the people’s will seemed to imply.
If Boris prorogues Parliament because of his interpretation of “the will of the people” a horrible precedent will be set. He will be saying that his authority comes from a source superior to Parliament and only he can interpret what that is. It is essentially fascism.0 -
Too conventional in your thinking. Monetary policy has a larger tool kit these days. The ECB are already talking about going back to QE along with negative interest rates.rcs1000 said:
That shouldn't be an enormous surprise. The PMIs point to high risks of recessions in both the Eurozone and the UK.Scott_P said:
In the US, the PMIs are the merest smidgen above 50. More worryingly, the yield curve has properly inverted. Out of the six recessions in the post WW2 era, this has only happened on seven occasions. On all but one of those, it was followed within six months by a recession.
What should scare policymakers in both Europe and the US is that monetary policy cannot easily be used to boost demand. Interest rates in the US are a mere 2%. In the UK they're are... ummm... 0.75%. The Eurozone is - what - 0.25%.0 -
Is this a serious post?HYUFD said:
No that is 25%, 24% is closer to 20% than 30%justin124 said:
24% is actually mid-20s.HYUFD said:
Labour are in the low 20s with Mori and Yougov do they canThe_Taxman said:
Tony Blair is on the record as saying that the 2005 GE was one that Labour could not lose. He said this not out of arrogance but the fact he had 400 plus MPs in 2001 many of who were seeking re-election. Incumbency and the ability of an opposition to challenge a Government mean finite resources have to be concentrated on only a percentage of total seats. Blair could lose 70 seats and still have an overall majority in 2005! I think this is why the result was such a big majority for Labour of 66 given the support for Labour in that election. I doubt the Tories could pull a majority of 66 in a GE if they are polling in the mid 30s even if Labour are in the high 20s.dixiedean said:
We've been here before of course. 2005 saw a government returned with only a smidgen over a third of the vote.IanB2 said:
The advantage the Tories do have is that they will find it easier to overhaul the Brexit Party Ltd. than will the LibDems to overhaul Labour.dixiedean said:What is interesting, and, in no way am I trying to make out that 24% is anything other than dismal for Labour, is that is the 6th consecutive poll with them ahead of the LDs. With a new LD leader in place.
Reports of the end of the 2 party system are premature.
The advantage the LibDems have is that the Tories’ overhauling of the BXP is pushing voters across the cultural divide, giving the liberal/remainer side an increasing majority of the electorate.
The disadvantage our country has is that we cling to a flawed voting system that will reward the Tories more significantly for the former, hence there is the risk of electing an HY-style government on the back of a third of the vote that is opposed by a significant majority of our voters.
The difference being, it wasn't promoting a revolutionary policy viscerally opposed by 60%.0 -
And I still can't shift that bastard Smith.
Him and Cummings to put on 100.0 -
Yes, you shouldn't confuse him with MalcolmG.DougSeal said:
Is this a serious post?HYUFD said:
No that is 25%, 24% is closer to 20% than 30%justin124 said:
24% is actually mid-20s.HYUFD said:
Labour are in the low 20s with Mori and Yougov do they canThe_Taxman said:
Tony Blair is on the record as saying that the 2005 GE was one that Labour could not lose. He said this not out of arrogance but the fact he had 400 plus MPs in 2001 many of who were seeking re-election. Incumbency and the ability of an opposition to challenge a Government mean finite resources have to be concentrated on only a percentage of total seats. Blair could lose 70 seats and still have an overall majority in 2005! I think this is why the result was such a big majority for Labour of 66 given the support for Labour in that election. I doubt the Tories could pull a majority of 66 in a GE if they are polling in the mid 30s even if Labour are in the high 20s.dixiedean said:
We've been here before of course. 2005 saw a government returned with only a smidgen over a third of the vote.IanB2 said:
The advantage the Tories do have is that they will find it easier to overhaul the Brexit Party Ltd. than will the LibDems to overhaul Labour.dixiedean said:What is interesting, and, in no way am I trying to make out that 24% is anything other than dismal for Labour, is that is the 6th consecutive poll with them ahead of the LDs. With a new LD leader in place.
Reports of the end of the 2 party system are premature.
The advantage the LibDems have is that the Tories’ overhauling of the BXP is pushing voters across the cultural divide, giving the liberal/remainer side an increasing majority of the electorate.
The disadvantage our country has is that we cling to a flawed voting system that will reward the Tories more significantly for the former, hence there is the risk of electing an HY-style government on the back of a third of the vote that is opposed by a significant majority of our voters.
The difference being, it wasn't promoting a revolutionary policy viscerally opposed by 60%.0 -
Gentle cricket was better cricket IMO.Nigelb said:
He was trying to say cricket used to be bollocks ?ydoethur said:
To give him his Jew, I think it was just a typo.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Antisemitism alert!rottenborough said:Crowd at Birmingham sound like they've been drinking all day. But is only 11am.
I am old enough to remember cricket being gentile.
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I'm blaming the umpires.
At this rate, they'll give a clean bowled as a wide.0 -
Leave him dangling with them all out for 140 and he has wasted his timeydoethur said:And I still can't shift that bastard Smith.
Him and Cummings to put on 100.
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Some truly awful umpiring hereydoethur said:I'm blaming the umpires.
At this rate, they'll give a clean bowled as a wide.
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This discussion has been closed.