politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden back as favourite for the nomination after Harris fails
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden back as favourite for the nomination after Harris fails to follow on from her first debate sucess
There’ve been big movements in the WH2020 Democratic nomination betting following last night’s second part of the latest round of debates including Biden and Kamala Harris.
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Biden and Harris both look unconvincing for different reasons. Bernie Sanders surely established his ceiling against Hillary last time, so looks booked for another podium finish but not the chequered flay. Elizabeth Warren: oh, I don't know.
There is a month off now, isn't there, and then the no-hopers are dropped?0 -
This is like the recent Conservative leadership contest where none of the candidates looked like a prime minister but you knew one of them soon would be.0
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A feeling we will all have on steroids come the next General Election.DecrepitJohnL said:This is like the recent Conservative leadership contest where none of the candidates looked like a prime minister but you knew one of them soon would be.
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Although that is slightly different as one of the candidates is already PM.ydoethur said:
A feeling we will all have on steroids come the next General Election.DecrepitJohnL said:This is like the recent Conservative leadership contest where none of the candidates looked like a prime minister but you knew one of them soon would be.
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Fourth like Labour-1
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Pb's Wales correspondents will presumably have their binoculars scanning the skies for the Boris or Swinson helicopters flying in for the count.0
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Yes, but he doesn't look or behave like it.philiph said:
Although that is slightly different as one of the candidates is already PM.ydoethur said:
A feeling we will all have on steroids come the next General Election.DecrepitJohnL said:This is like the recent Conservative leadership contest where none of the candidates looked like a prime minister but you knew one of them soon would be.
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The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).ydoethur said:
Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.0 -
Labour must at all costs finish fourth today. Third would be better.IanB2 said:
The LibDem B&R EM leaflet carries the betting odds for Labour, as a reminder (and reassurance for defecting Tories).ydoethur said:
Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
If they come behind UKIP, or do an SDP Bootle impression, then they have problems.0 -
Lurking in the Wye Valley with a FIM-92 shouldered.DecrepitJohnL said:Pb's Wales correspondents will presumably have their binoculars scanning the skies for the Boris or Swinson helicopters flying in for the count.
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They will get as many votes as England's top four do runs.Sandpit said:
*bookmarks post for later to see if it worked*1 -
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Buzzfeed ? I can now see light shining through the bottom of Scotts barrel.Scott_P said:0 -
Even the Beeb called out Harris as a loser.DecrepitJohnL said:Biden and Harris both look unconvincing for different reasons. Bernie Sanders surely established his ceiling against Hillary last time, so looks booked for another podium finish but not the chequered flay. Elizabeth Warren: oh, I don't know.
There is a month off now, isn't there, and then the no-hopers are dropped?
How much are her odds simply driven by the belief she’s a female Obama?0 -
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.OldKingCole said:0 -
Ironic really when you consider the last PM with a live-in girlfriend was Welsh.MikeSmithson said:
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.OldKingCole said:
That said, he was a Gog and they don't like Gogs in Mid Wales.0 -
Probably selected because Boris has empathy for the AC⚡DC song of the same name.Scott_P said:
She's making eyes
At everything she meet
It ain't it a crime
When she make you pump heat
She'll make you fly because that's her thing
She'll make you dry
Then you know you're broken in
Who all need it, you
Who all need it, yes you do
You all breathe it
We all need it
Are you ready for a good time
Then get ready for the night line
Are you ready for a good time
Then get ready for the night line
Are you ready for a good time0 -
This time it’s the leavers publicising project fear. With taxpayers cash.Scott_P said:0 -
Unsurprising.. but its 2019 not 1819MikeSmithson said:
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.OldKingCole said:0 -
Well I hope the cheats will be roundly booed. They shouldn't be in the team.Sandpit said:1 -
Morning all and with all due respect to the thread, I frankly don't care if one septuagenarian comes out better than another to take on "the Donald" because unless the American economy totally tanks in the next 12 months, I fully expect Trump to thrash the Democrats who seem totally divided between neo-Republicans at one end to pseudo Socialists at the other.
Closer to home I fully expect the Liberal Undemocrats to win today's by-election in Brecon. However will the LibDem vote (which can be taken to be a composition of LibDem + Green +Plaid exceed that of Tory + Brexit? If not then Boris can be hopeful of winning it back at the GE next Spring if he gets Brexit through by 31/10 or at a forced GE if the opposition parties secure a vote of no confidence.
Will Brecon mark the high point of the current LibDem resurgence? To me this is a shade of Crosby when Shirley Williams overhauled a stonking Tory majority to win her seat in 1981, only to lose it back to the Tories in 1983.
Clearly lots of you including our Honourable host will be having a late night/early morning awaiting the result but I am hoping to sleep through out. Finding out at breakfast tomorrow will be good enough for me.
By the way Undemocrats because the LibDems have shown they only like and accept votes if the votes go their way. They accepted a majority of 6,000 on a tiny turnout was enough to justify setting up the Welsh Assembly but refuse to accept that a majority of 1.4 million on the highest turnout vote in the UK in generations is sufficient to justify Brexit. Their new leader, the youthful and fragrant Jo Swinson made an utter fool of herself on the Scottish media last week trying to justify why there should be what is in effect a Revocation 2nd referendum on Brexit but not a 2nd referendum on Scottish Independence when at least our Wee Nippy Sweetie First Minister does have a democratic majority vote at and mandate from Holyrood to ask for one!0 -
He that is without sin, cast the first stone!SquareRoot said:
Well I hope the cheats will be roundly booed. They shouldn't be in the team.Sandpit said:0 -
We don't want people throwing stones.OldKingCole said:
He that is without sin, cast the first stone!SquareRoot said:
Well I hope the cheats will be roundly booed. They shouldn't be in the team.Sandpit said:
Some sandpaper while Warner is fielding down at third man would be quite funny, however.
A nasty bully who dished it out for years but doesn't like it when his crimes are thrown back at him.0 -
The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.OldKingCole said:0 -
I am sure the morality issue is a genuine one with more socially conservative voters. Rightly so, Boris has a long history of disgraceful personal behaviour.MikeSmithson said:
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.OldKingCole said:0 -
Harris clearly has a big machine behind her, a lot of Clinton staff are running her campaign and there has even been talk the Obama's will back her. I just don't see her justifying the hype, Tulsi really took her down last night and her economic analysis is akin to the average BBC reporter. I think Warren is much more likely to trouble Trump in campaign, Harris looks out of her depth outside legal spheres, even there Tulsi took a huge look at her performance.Casino_Royale said:
Even the Beeb called out Harris as a loser.DecrepitJohnL said:Biden and Harris both look unconvincing for different reasons. Bernie Sanders surely established his ceiling against Hillary last time, so looks booked for another podium finish but not the chequered flay. Elizabeth Warren: oh, I don't know.
There is a month off now, isn't there, and then the no-hopers are dropped?
How much are her odds simply driven by the belief she’s a female Obama?0 -
It is odd that the PM chooses as his catchphrase a description of a famous blunder:Scott_P said:
Forward, the Light Brigade!”
Was there a man dismayed?
Not though the soldier knew
Someone had blundered.
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die.
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
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I don't think the divisions are a problem, once they've got a nominee they'll have no problem drawing a contrast with Trump and getting the base riled up and any waverers in line.NorthCadboll said:Morning all and with all due respect to the thread, I frankly don't care if one septuagenarian comes out better than another to take on "the Donald" because unless the American economy totally tanks in the next 12 months, I fully expect Trump to thrash the Democrats who seem totally divided between neo-Republicans at one end to pseudo Socialists at the other
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What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.
If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.
If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.
If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.
As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.1 -
Like they did with Hilary?? Sanders supporters sure rode in behind her then.edmundintokyo said:
I don't think the divisions are a problem, once they've got a nominee they'll have no problem drawing a contrast with Trump and getting the base riled up and any waverers in line.NorthCadboll said:Morning all and with all due respect to the thread, I frankly don't care if one septuagenarian comes out better than another to take on "the Donald" because unless the American economy totally tanks in the next 12 months, I fully expect Trump to thrash the Democrats who seem totally divided between neo-Republicans at one end to pseudo Socialists at the other
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Divisions are part for the course at the primary stage.edmundintokyo said:
I don't think the divisions are a problem, once they've got a nominee they'll have no problem drawing a contrast with Trump and getting the base riled up and any waverers in line.NorthCadboll said:Morning all and with all due respect to the thread, I frankly don't care if one septuagenarian comes out better than another to take on "the Donald" because unless the American economy totally tanks in the next 12 months, I fully expect Trump to thrash the Democrats who seem totally divided between neo-Republicans at one end to pseudo Socialists at the other
It looks like Warren to me.0 -
Deleted as a duplicate
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Yeah they did, and Sanders supported her. You're probably thinking of Hillary's failure to get behind ObamaSlackbladder said:
Like they did with Hilary?? Sanders supporters sure rode in behind her then.edmundintokyo said:
I don't think the divisions are a problem, once they've got a nominee they'll have no problem drawing a contrast with Trump and getting the base riled up and any waverers in line.NorthCadboll said:Morning all and with all due respect to the thread, I frankly don't care if one septuagenarian comes out better than another to take on "the Donald" because unless the American economy totally tanks in the next 12 months, I fully expect Trump to thrash the Democrats who seem totally divided between neo-Republicans at one end to pseudo Socialists at the other
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It’s even odder in that he didn’t choose it. It was put to him by the interviewer and he accepted it. He must have known the source, but even if he didn’t he hasn’t resiled from it .andypetuk said:Foxy said:
It is odd that the PM chooses as his catchphrase a description of a famous blunder:Scott_P said:
Forward, the Light Brigade!”
Was there a man dismayed?
Not though the soldier knew
Someone had blundered.
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die.
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.0 -
Yes; that's the case. Some years, while in pursuit of some family history evidence my wife and I had a week in Rhayader and attended Sunday service in a chapel where I believed one of my ancestors had been a minister. There were 10-12 people there and the average age seemed to be over 60.El_Capitano said:
The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.OldKingCole said:0 -
And they have seen the result of that.Slackbladder said:
Like they did with Hilary?? Sanders supporters sure rode in behind her then.edmundintokyo said:
I don't think the divisions are a problem, once they've got a nominee they'll have no problem drawing a contrast with Trump and getting the base riled up and any waverers in line.NorthCadboll said:Morning all and with all due respect to the thread, I frankly don't care if one septuagenarian comes out better than another to take on "the Donald" because unless the American economy totally tanks in the next 12 months, I fully expect Trump to thrash the Democrats who seem totally divided between neo-Republicans at one end to pseudo Socialists at the other
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All constituencies have their local wrinkles. I think this will be an interesting test of the Remain Alliance.ydoethur said:What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.
If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.
If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.
If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.
As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.
In Sheffield Hallam it would be interesting to see reciprocation.0 -
The notion that Sanders supporters would in some number faĺl in behind Trump is beyond belief, but it happened in 2016. Now they know what Trump stands for, will they again?Slackbladder said:
Like they did with Hilary?? Sanders supporters sure rode in behind her then.edmundintokyo said:
I don't think the divisions are a problem, once they've got a nominee they'll have no problem drawing a contrast with Trump and getting the base riled up and any waverers in line.NorthCadboll said:Morning all and with all due respect to the thread, I frankly don't care if one septuagenarian comes out better than another to take on "the Donald" because unless the American economy totally tanks in the next 12 months, I fully expect Trump to thrash the Democrats who seem totally divided between neo-Republicans at one end to pseudo Socialists at the other
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A curious attitude- surely it shows a level of commitment to the partnership? Obviously his history suggests otherwise but her living at no.10 doesnt speak to that.MikeSmithson said:
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.OldKingCole said:0 -
Looks like a Biden v Warren nomination battle then as of this morning0
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Very similar verdict from a seemingly very conservative commentator (he is deeply shocked that the Democrats are edging towards anything NHSish):
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/7/31/20749497/2020-democratic-debates-presidential-election-winners-losers-night-two0 -
If I were going to be in the ground, I’d take a sheet of sandpaper to offer them when they’re fielding on the boundary...SquareRoot said:
Well I hope the cheats will be roundly booed. They shouldn't be in the team.Sandpit said:0 -
Labour's pre-coalition 10% provides a benchmark. Although I'd hope Labour will be closer to lost deposit territory this time, given the absence of any campaign and the party's national travails.ydoethur said:What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.
If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.
If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.
If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.
As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.0 -
Living in sin is living in sin.kle4 said:
A curious attitude- surely it shows a level of commitment to the partnership?MikeSmithson said:
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.OldKingCole said:0 -
Maybe, but given it is not a regular constituency and not a hugely strong labour seat, I cannot see them worrying if their vote is squeezed even if they should be.ydoethur said:What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.
If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.
If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.
If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.
As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.0 -
At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.El_Capitano said:
The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.OldKingCole said:
The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.0 -
It is a bit indecent before he is even divorced.kle4 said:
A curious attitude- surely it shows a level of commitment to the partnership? Obviously his history suggests otherwise but her living at no.10 doesnt speak to that.MikeSmithson said:
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.OldKingCole said:
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I think Labour's Brexit policy is right for government and I wouldn't like to see it change to "We'll try to negotiate a better deal and then we promise to campaign against it", which is just daft. But it's poor for a by-election when only the motivated turn out, and not great for a GE. I expect Labour to drop to 4% or so, but I don't think that's especially cause for panic - it's an August by-election, meh (the poll ratings are another matter).Foxy said:
All constituencies have their local wrinkles. I think this will be an interesting test of the Remain Alliance.ydoethur said:What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.
If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.
If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.
If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.
As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.
In Sheffield Hallam it would be interesting to see reciprocation.0 -
Very much so. If his own wife couldn’t trust him for years, then why should the rest of us?Foxy said:
I am sure the morality issue is a genuine one with more socially conservative voters. Rightly so, Boris has a long history of disgraceful personal behaviour.MikeSmithson said:
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.OldKingCole said:0 -
Will Carrie Symonds move into Downing Street? Well, yes, but the funny thing is that during the campaign, Boris first refused to say, and then let his team brief that she would not. Of course, that was when he was a candidate; now he is prime minister. A trivial example perhaps, but it shows the importance of checking who said what and what they said.Foxy said:
I am sure the morality issue is a genuine one with more socially conservative voters. Rightly so, Boris has a long history of disgraceful personal behaviour.MikeSmithson said:
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.OldKingCole said:0 -
They won't worry, of course they won't. Most of the Labour leadership exist in a London vacuum.kle4 said:
Maybe, but given it is not a regular constituency and not a hugely strong labour seat, I cannot see them worrying if their vote is squeezed even if they should be.ydoethur said:What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.
If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.
If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.
If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.
As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.
But they should. This could be their Brent East, not their Newbury.0 -
The ultimate 'chapels they don't go to'!ydoethur said:
At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.El_Capitano said:
The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.OldKingCole said:
The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.0 -
I cant see any problem with the booing. They're hugely talented and that will be respected and will define their careers at the end of the day, but they did cheat, they can hardly complain that people bring it up.ydoethur said:
We don't want people throwing stones.OldKingCole said:
He that is without sin, cast the first stone!SquareRoot said:
Well I hope the cheats will be roundly booed. They shouldn't be in the team.Sandpit said:
Some sandpaper while Warner is fielding down at third man would be quite funny, however.
A nasty bully who dished it out for years but doesn't like it when his crimes are thrown back at him.0 -
No doubt mentioned with frequent glee by LD canvassers to older voters, Liberals can be anything but liberal when they see a by election gain, see also Simon Hughes' infamous 'the straight choice' leaflet when standing against Peter Tatchell in the Bermondsey by electionMikeSmithson said:
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.OldKingCole said:0 -
And fire is definitely caused by the departure of phlogiston from the burning substance.eek said:
Living in sin is living in sin.kle4 said:
A curious attitude- surely it shows a level of commitment to the partnership?MikeSmithson said:
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.OldKingCole said:0 -
The problem they have are a lot of the contrasts with Trump are not positive, in terms of Economy, Employment, Border Controls. To expose Trump's clear lack of popularity personality wise the Democrat's need to come up with a fresh agenda to take on Trump politically. Warren is the only candidate who can possibly do that, as I see it.edmundintokyo said:
I don't think the divisions are a problem, once they've got a nominee they'll have no problem drawing a contrast with Trump and getting the base riled up and any waverers in line.NorthCadboll said:Morning all and with all due respect to the thread, I frankly don't care if one septuagenarian comes out better than another to take on "the Donald" because unless the American economy totally tanks in the next 12 months, I fully expect Trump to thrash the Democrats who seem totally divided between neo-Republicans at one end to pseudo Socialists at the other
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Yes, it is difficult to argue against reruns of some votes and not others.NorthCadboll said:Morning all and with all due respect to the thread, I frankly don't care if one septuagenarian comes out better than another to take on "the Donald" because unless the American economy totally tanks in the next 12 months, I fully expect Trump to thrash the Democrats who seem totally divided between neo-Republicans at one end to pseudo Socialists at the other.
Closer to home I fully expect the Liberal Undemocrats to win today's by-election in Brecon. However will the LibDem vote (which can be taken to be a composition of LibDem + Green +Plaid exceed that of Tory + Brexit? If not then Boris can be hopeful of winning it back at the GE next Spring if he gets Brexit through by 31/10 or at a forced GE if the opposition parties secure a vote of no confidence.
Will Brecon mark the high point of the current LibDem resurgence? To me this is a shade of Crosby when Shirley Williams overhauled a stonking Tory majority to win her seat in 1981, only to lose it back to the Tories in 1983.
Clearly lots of you including our Honourable host will be having a late night/early morning awaiting the result but I am hoping to sleep through out. Finding out at breakfast tomorrow will be good enough for me.
By the way Undemocrats because the LibDems have shown they only like and accept votes if the votes go their way. They accepted a majority of 6,000 on a tiny turnout was enough to justify setting up the Welsh Assembly but refuse to accept that a majority of 1.4 million on the highest turnout vote in the UK in generations is sufficient to justify Brexit. Their new leader, the youthful and fragrant Jo Swinson made an utter fool of herself on the Scottish media last week trying to justify why there should be what is in effect a Revocation 2nd referendum on Brexit but not a 2nd referendum on Scottish Independence when at least our Wee Nippy Sweetie First Minister does have a democratic majority vote at and mandate from Holyrood to ask for one!0 -
Jimmy Carter was loyal to his wife, Bill Clinton cheated with anything that moved.Sandpit said:
Very much so. If his own wife couldn’t trust him for years, then why should the rest of us?Foxy said:
I am sure the morality issue is a genuine one with more socially conservative voters. Rightly so, Boris has a long history of disgraceful personal behaviour.MikeSmithson said:
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.OldKingCole said:
Who was the better President?0 -
Beto O'Rourke was last traded at 120. It's only two months ago that he was one of the leading group of four. How soon fortunes change.0
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In 2002 the two surviving Presbyterian churches in Aberystwyth merged.OldKingCole said:
The ultimate 'chapels they don't go to'!ydoethur said:
At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.El_Capitano said:
The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.OldKingCole said:
The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.
Half of the congregation of the one that closed refused to join the congregation of the one that remained open.
Here's a story for this morning though:
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/remote-welsh-chapel-theres-only-145067320 -
Lib Dems are going nowhere, Swinson is crap and given their past record on treachery they deserve all they get.NorthCadboll said:Morning all and with all due respect to the thread, I frankly don't care if one septuagenarian comes out better than another to take on "the Donald" because unless the American economy totally tanks in the next 12 months, I fully expect Trump to thrash the Democrats who seem totally divided between neo-Republicans at one end to pseudo Socialists at the other.
Closer to home I fully expect the Liberal Undemocrats to win today's by-election in Brecon. However will the LibDem vote (which can be taken to be a composition of LibDem + Green +Plaid exceed that of Tory + Brexit? If not then Boris can be hopeful of winning it back at the GE next Spring if he gets Brexit through by 31/10 or at a forced GE if the opposition parties secure a vote of no confidence.
Will Brecon mark the high point of the current LibDem resurgence? To me this is a shade of Crosby when Shirley Williams overhauled a stonking Tory majority to win her seat in 1981, only to lose it back to the Tories in 1983.
Clearly lots of you including our Honourable host will be having a late night/early morning awaiting the result but I am hoping to sleep through out. Finding out at breakfast tomorrow will be good enough for me.
By the way Undemocrats because the LibDems have shown they only like and accept votes if the votes go their way. They accepted a majority of 6,000 on a tiny turnout was enough to justify setting up the Welsh Assembly but refuse to accept that a majority of 1.4 million on the highest turnout vote in the UK in generations is sufficient to justify Brexit. Their new leader, the youthful and fragrant Jo Swinson made an utter fool of herself on the Scottish media last week trying to justify why there should be what is in effect a Revocation 2nd referendum on Brexit but not a 2nd referendum on Scottish Independence when at least our Wee Nippy Sweetie First Minister does have a democratic majority vote at and mandate from Holyrood to ask for one!0 -
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Eh, if theres no prospect of reconciliation then it's a moot point next to having already committed serial adultery. And if people are bothered enough by him being so unfaithful in marriage surely living with his new girlfriend wont make a difference, those against him for his personal life are already against him.Foxy said:
It is a bit indecent before he is even divorced.kle4 said:
A curious attitude- surely it shows a level of commitment to the partnership? Obviously his history suggests otherwise but her living at no.10 doesnt speak to that.MikeSmithson said:
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.OldKingCole said:1 -
I could believe that (though it seems a little optimistic), but it does mask the health of each congregation. My limited second-hand knowledge of both mid-Wales and Gwynedd suggests that single-figure, very elderly congregations are the norm. A friend started attending chapel in her early 30s and was practically greeted as the new Messiah!ydoethur said:
At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.El_Capitano said:
The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.OldKingCole said:
The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.
(Methodist and Baptist churches are struggling in rural England too, of course.)
Edit: that piece about the Epynt chapel and its one worshipper is lovely.0 -
Jimmy Carter also foolishly said that he lusted after practically every woman he'd met.HYUFD said:
Jimmy Carter was loyal to his wife, Bill Clinton cheated with anything that moved.Sandpit said:
Very much so. If his own wife couldn’t trust him for years, then why should the rest of us?Foxy said:
I am sure the morality issue is a genuine one with more socially conservative voters. Rightly so, Boris has a long history of disgraceful personal behaviour.MikeSmithson said:
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.OldKingCole said:
Who was the better President?
So he didn't even get credit for being a good husband.0 -
The joy's of American primary and ore primary season. I cannot wait to see which no hoper may next get the limelight, I hope they dont disappoint.AlastairMeeks said:Beto O'Rourke was last traded at 120. It's only two months ago that he was one of the leading group of four. How soon fortunes change.
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Was very happy to help out in Bermondsey in a very minor way and deliver a bit of late justice against Hughes in 2015 for that vile campaign.HYUFD said:
No doubt mentioned with frequent glee by LD canvassers to older voters, Liberals can be anything but liberal when they see a by election gain, see also Simon Hughes' infamous 'the straight choice' leaflet when standing against Peter Tatchell in the Bermondsey by electionMikeSmithson said:
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.OldKingCole said:0 -
In that case it is between you and Corbyn as to who turns the lights out.NickPalmer said:
I think Labour's Brexit policy is right for government and I wouldn't like to see it change to "We'll try to negotiate a better deal and then we promise to campaign against it", which is just daft. But it's poor for a by-election when only the motivated turn out, and not great for a GE. I expect Labour to drop to 4% or so, but I don't think that's especially cause for panic - it's an August by-election, meh (the poll ratings are another matter).Foxy said:
All constituencies have their local wrinkles. I think this will be an interesting test of the Remain Alliance.ydoethur said:What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.
If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.
If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.
If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.
As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.
In Sheffield Hallam it would be interesting to see reciprocation.
In what has become a binary choice, second vote or no deal, fence sitters will be blown to kingdom come.
I cannot see any deal which will satisfy the majority from either side now. Any deal will be both too Brexity, or not Brexity enough.0 -
I am not surprised!MikeSmithson said:
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.OldKingCole said:0 -
Yes, incredible really. He seems to have singularly failed to light up a campaign.AlastairMeeks said:Beto O'Rourke was last traded at 120. It's only two months ago that he was one of the leading group of four. How soon fortunes change.
I read the other day that he has not adjusted to a national campaign from a TX-only campaign.0 -
I don't know why you said 'rural.' My experience is that they are struggling badly in urban England too.El_Capitano said:
I could believe that (though it seems a little optimistic), but it does mask the health of each congregation. My limited second-hand knowledge of both mid-Wales and Gwynedd suggests that single-figure, very elderly congregations are the norm. A friend started attending chapel in her early 30s and was practically greeted as the new Messiah!ydoethur said:
At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.El_Capitano said:
The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.OldKingCole said:
The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.
(Methodist and Baptist churches are struggling in rural England too, of course.)
And yes, I would partly agree with your post, although again, it varies. The chapels in Aberystwyth are still pretty full, those in Borth are now pretty houses.0 -
Just that I don’t have any experience of urban non-conformism!ydoethur said:
I don't know why you said 'rural.' My experience is that they are struggling badly in urban England too.El_Capitano said:
I could believe that (though it seems a little optimistic), but it does mask the health of each congregation. My limited second-hand knowledge of both mid-Wales and Gwynedd suggests that single-figure, very elderly congregations are the norm. A friend started attending chapel in her early 30s and was practically greeted as the new Messiah!ydoethur said:
At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.El_Capitano said:
The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.OldKingCole said:
The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.
(Methodist and Baptist churches are struggling in rural England too, of course.)
And yes, I would partly agree with your post, although again, it varies. The chapels in Aberystwyth are still pretty full, those in Borth are now pretty houses.0 -
It would be nice if someone could come up with a church without God. A place where you can get together with your neighbours, mobilise to help others, be told some uplifting stuff and sing a load of great songs, without being told you're better than other people, or that the world was made in a way clearly rendered implausible by modern science, or that some people were born wrong.ydoethur said:
At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.El_Capitano said:
The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.OldKingCole said:
The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.0 -
Indeed and it turned out Hughes was bi himself anywayOnlyLivingBoy said:
Was very happy to help out in Bermondsey in a very minor way and deliver a bit of late justice against Hughes in 2015 for that vile campaign.HYUFD said:
No doubt mentioned with frequent glee by LD canvassers to older voters, Liberals can be anything but liberal when they see a by election gain, see also Simon Hughes' infamous 'the straight choice' leaflet when standing against Peter Tatchell in the Bermondsey by electionMikeSmithson said:
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.OldKingCole said:0 -
Except that there appears to be a small majority of the electorate in favour of it:NickPalmer said:Very similar verdict from a seemingly very conservative commentator (he is deeply shocked that the Democrats are edging towards anything NHSish):
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/7/31/20749497/2020-democratic-debates-presidential-election-winners-losers-night-two
https://morningconsult.com/2019/07/02/majority-backs-medicare-for-all-replacing-private-plans-if-preferred-providers-stay/
However, it's certainly a less popular 'progressive' policy than, for instance, the 'Green Deal', which attracts the support of over 60% of those polled.0 -
Labour stay at homes will surely be another big factor. They are very good news for Johnson.ydoethur said:What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.
If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.
If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.
If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.
As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.
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Much of which let it not be forgetting was orchestrated by a splinter group from within Labour...OnlyLivingBoy said:
Was very happy to help out in Bermondsey in a very minor way and deliver a bit of late justice against Hughes in 2015 for that vile campaign.HYUFD said:
No doubt mentioned with frequent glee by LD canvassers to older voters, Liberals can be anything but liberal when they see a by election gain, see also Simon Hughes' infamous 'the straight choice' leaflet when standing against Peter Tatchell in the Bermondsey by electionMikeSmithson said:
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.OldKingCole said:0 -
You are re-writing history there. Most of the vile stuff came from the "True Labour" candidate O'Grady.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Was very happy to help out in Bermondsey in a very minor way and deliver a bit of late justice against Hughes in 2015 for that vile campaign.HYUFD said:
No doubt mentioned with frequent glee by LD canvassers to older voters, Liberals can be anything but liberal when they see a by election gain, see also Simon Hughes' infamous 'the straight choice' leaflet when standing against Peter Tatchell in the Bermondsey by electionMikeSmithson said:
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.OldKingCole said:0 -
Labour will be squeezed here as they have been since the LibDems became clearly identified as the stronger anti-Tory option. In 2010 Labour polled just 10% here.ydoethur said:What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.
If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.
If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.
If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.
As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.0 -
In the Richmond by election a few years ago Labour got less votes than they had members in the area (pretty sure) getting squeezed in a seat we aren't going to win, especially in a by election is to be expected.0
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This is the 21st century not the 1950s, yes we can still have the happily married and loyal to their first love PM as the ideal but in reality many now divorce, have live in partners, children out of wedlock etc and Boris' situation is no difficult to millions of othersjustin124 said:
I am not surprised!MikeSmithson said:
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.OldKingCole said:0 -
Morning all,
Off topic, but I thought George Clarke's programme last night on social housing and the start of his new campaign was excellent.
The material about Vienna and social housing there (all classes, 1st class, low rent, even swimming pools, play areas etc) was really interesting.
The minister, Brokenshire (departed a week before programme aired) came across as utterly useless, just wibberling about change being important and aware of the issues etc etc.
Can Clarke do a Jamie Oliver on housing?
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There is an organisation like that in London. Indeed, in the nineteenth century there was an attempt to set up a whole quasi-religious secular organisation complete with hymn-singing.OnlyLivingBoy said:
It would be nice if someone could come up with a church without God. A place where you can get together with your neighbours, mobilise to help others, be told some uplifting stuff and sing a load of great songs, without being told you're better than other people, or that the world was made in a way clearly rendered implausible by modern science, or that some people were born wrong.ydoethur said:
At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.El_Capitano said:
The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.OldKingCole said:
The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.
But in my experience such people as attend these places tend to be far more holier-than-thou, arrogant, bigoted and downright weird than religious people.0 -
It’s the 21st Century.Foxy said:
It is a bit indecent before he is even divorced.kle4 said:
A curious attitude- surely it shows a level of commitment to the partnership? Obviously his history suggests otherwise but her living at no.10 doesnt speak to that.MikeSmithson said:
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.OldKingCole said:
I don’t particularly trust or like Boris Johnson, but these conventions died a long time ago.0 -
Labour scored nearly 18% last time; I'll be amazed if they get 14% this time. Edit/ Apologies, I see that you said "to 4%". Probably right.NickPalmer said:
I think Labour's Brexit policy is right for government and I wouldn't like to see it change to "We'll try to negotiate a better deal and then we promise to campaign against it", which is just daft. But it's poor for a by-election when only the motivated turn out, and not great for a GE. I expect Labour to drop to 4% or so, but I don't think that's especially cause for panic - it's an August by-election, meh (the poll ratings are another matter).Foxy said:
All constituencies have their local wrinkles. I think this will be an interesting test of the Remain Alliance.ydoethur said:What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.
If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.
If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.
If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.
As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.
In Sheffield Hallam it would be interesting to see reciprocation.
I will also be amazed if turnout drops hugely. There is apathy around, so turnout will probably drop from the GE 77% (noting that the previous Brecon by-election scored nearly 80% turnout). But I doubt you'll be able to dismiss the result on grounds of low turnout.0 -
Only 46% back it if it diminishes the role of their private insurer, though 55% if they still keep their doctor and hospital but no guarantee of thatNigelb said:
Except that there appears to be a small majority of the electorate in favour of it:NickPalmer said:Very similar verdict from a seemingly very conservative commentator (he is deeply shocked that the Democrats are edging towards anything NHSish):
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/7/31/20749497/2020-democratic-debates-presidential-election-winners-losers-night-two
https://morningconsult.com/2019/07/02/majority-backs-medicare-for-all-replacing-private-plans-if-preferred-providers-stay/
However, it's certainly a less popular 'progressive' policy than, for instance, the 'Green Deal', which attracts the support of over 60% of those polled.0 -
It could be counter productive, both have the ability to get the runs that get Australia over the line in this series. Yes they got found out by the South African broadcasters but the punishments ridiculously harsh. The Aussie authorities regretted that when they hardly won a game when they were out and interest in the team dropped dramatically. Just support for the England team is what I want to hear, non stop boorish abuse of Warne never seemed to work.kle4 said:
I cant see any problem with the booing. They're hugely talented and that will be respected and will define their careers at the end of the day, but they did cheat, they can hardly complain that people bring it up.ydoethur said:
We don't want people throwing stones.OldKingCole said:
He that is without sin, cast the first stone!SquareRoot said:
Well I hope the cheats will be roundly booed. They shouldn't be in the team.Sandpit said:
Some sandpaper while Warner is fielding down at third man would be quite funny, however.
A nasty bully who dished it out for years but doesn't like it when his crimes are thrown back at him.0 -
Labour's policy is a second vote.Mexicanpete said:
In that case it is between you and Corbyn as to who turns the lights out.NickPalmer said:
I think Labour's Brexit policy is right for government and I wouldn't like to see it change to "We'll try to negotiate a better deal and then we promise to campaign against it", which is just daft. But it's poor for a by-election when only the motivated turn out, and not great for a GE. I expect Labour to drop to 4% or so, but I don't think that's especially cause for panic - it's an August by-election, meh (the poll ratings are another matter).Foxy said:
All constituencies have their local wrinkles. I think this will be an interesting test of the Remain Alliance.ydoethur said:What will I think be the more interesting question than who wins - given the nature of the constituency and the electorate it represents - is how much of the Labour vote goes to the Liberal Democrats, how much to the Brexit Party and how much stays with Labour.
If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.
If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.
If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.
As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.
In Sheffield Hallam it would be interesting to see reciprocation.
In what has become a binary choice, second vote or no deal, fence sitters will be blown to kingdom come.
I cannot see any deal which will satisfy the majority from either side now. Any deal will be both too Brexity, or not Brexity enough.0 -
If so, why would they vote for the Liberal Democrats who are even more liberal in these matters?MikeSmithson said:
I'm told that the new PM having a live-in girl friend at Number 10 has not gone down well in parts of the seat.OldKingCole said:0 -
An alternative view is one of the most exciting opening batsmen in the world today, hopefully matched in this series by Jason Roy. I find this going on about the ball tampering tedious. Teams have done this since time immemorial and they have served their time.ydoethur said:
We don't want people throwing stones.OldKingCole said:
He that is without sin, cast the first stone!SquareRoot said:
Well I hope the cheats will be roundly booed. They shouldn't be in the team.Sandpit said:
Some sandpaper while Warner is fielding down at third man would be quite funny, however.
A nasty bully who dished it out for years but doesn't like it when his crimes are thrown back at him.
I am expecting a close series with a lot of results. Both teams have much better bowling attacks than batsmen. 3-4 days tests would not surprise me at all.0 -
Yes, as I've said before, the next election may be decided by who can get most of their voters out.SouthamObserver said:Labour stay at homes will surely be another big factor. They are very good news for Johnson.
At the moment, the Tories are winning that battle, but you feel they are one mighty cock-up away from losing the advantage.
It's as well they've got a leader of tact, judgement, skill and experience to make sure that doesn't...ah.0 -
I come from a long line of Methodists on mother's side, including a methodist minister and missionary. It was big thing in late 1800s, and early part of 20th century. These days though there is real serious decline. Indeed the methodist church at bottom of my road has just merged with another and the vacant building and plot will become, yes you guessed it, flats for private rent.ydoethur said:
I don't know why you said 'rural.' My experience is that they are struggling badly in urban England too.El_Capitano said:
I could believe that (though it seems a little optimistic), but it does mask the health of each congregation. My limited second-hand knowledge of both mid-Wales and Gwynedd suggests that single-figure, very elderly congregations are the norm. A friend started attending chapel in her early 30s and was practically greeted as the new Messiah!ydoethur said:
At the height of Nonconformity there were 6426 chapels in Wales.El_Capitano said:
The chapels are, sadly, on the verge of extinction. Figures are hard to come by because of their independent nature: there was an attempt at mapping them about five years ago and the situation was bleak.OldKingCole said:
The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.
(Methodist and Baptist churches are struggling in rural England too, of course.)
And yes, I would partly agree with your post, although again, it varies. The chapels in Aberystwyth are still pretty full, those in Borth are now pretty houses.0
