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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden back as favourite for the nomination after Harris fails
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden back as favourite for the nomination after Harris fails to follow on from her first debate sucess
There’ve been big movements in the WH2020 Democratic nomination betting following last night’s second part of the latest round of debates including Biden and Kamala Harris.
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There is a month off now, isn't there, and then the no-hopers are dropped?
Meanwhile I see the odds on the LibDems are coming in again.
If they come behind UKIP, or do an SDP Bootle impression, then they have problems.
*bookmarks post for later to see if it worked*
How much are her odds simply driven by the belief she’s a female Obama?
That said, he was a Gog and they don't like Gogs in Mid Wales.
She's making eyes
At everything she meet
It ain't it a crime
When she make you pump heat
She'll make you fly because that's her thing
She'll make you dry
Then you know you're broken in
Who all need it, you
Who all need it, yes you do
You all breathe it
We all need it
Are you ready for a good time
Then get ready for the night line
Are you ready for a good time
Then get ready for the night line
Are you ready for a good time
Closer to home I fully expect the Liberal Undemocrats to win today's by-election in Brecon. However will the LibDem vote (which can be taken to be a composition of LibDem + Green +Plaid exceed that of Tory + Brexit? If not then Boris can be hopeful of winning it back at the GE next Spring if he gets Brexit through by 31/10 or at a forced GE if the opposition parties secure a vote of no confidence.
Will Brecon mark the high point of the current LibDem resurgence? To me this is a shade of Crosby when Shirley Williams overhauled a stonking Tory majority to win her seat in 1981, only to lose it back to the Tories in 1983.
Clearly lots of you including our Honourable host will be having a late night/early morning awaiting the result but I am hoping to sleep through out. Finding out at breakfast tomorrow will be good enough for me.
By the way Undemocrats because the LibDems have shown they only like and accept votes if the votes go their way. They accepted a majority of 6,000 on a tiny turnout was enough to justify setting up the Welsh Assembly but refuse to accept that a majority of 1.4 million on the highest turnout vote in the UK in generations is sufficient to justify Brexit. Their new leader, the youthful and fragrant Jo Swinson made an utter fool of herself on the Scottish media last week trying to justify why there should be what is in effect a Revocation 2nd referendum on Brexit but not a 2nd referendum on Scottish Independence when at least our Wee Nippy Sweetie First Minister does have a democratic majority vote at and mandate from Holyrood to ask for one!
Some sandpaper while Warner is fielding down at third man would be quite funny, however.
A nasty bully who dished it out for years but doesn't like it when his crimes are thrown back at him.
Forward, the Light Brigade!”
Was there a man dismayed?
Not though the soldier knew
Someone had blundered.
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die.
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
If Labour voters start switching in droves to the Liberal Democrats, Labour should panic. Because the Labour vote in that constituency is absolutely the last sort of vote that should be transferring to the Yellows. It's ex-industrial, quite pro-Brexit and tribally socialist. Even in 1997, there was no tactical voting by Labour supporters here.
If it switches to the Brexit Party, Labour should be very worried. We have talked a lot about split votes letting Labour win, but if the Brexit Party starts splitting their vote in ex-industrial areas there are quite a few seats of their own that might be at risk, e.g. Bolsover.
If it stays with Labour, they can breathe a small sigh of relief. And then they need to wonder how to widen their coalition, as they cannot hope to win an election just on ex-industrial Brixiteers.
As I have frequently said, outwith a big win for either side nobody should read too much into the headline result given the unusual features of this constituency. But there will be lessons to be learned burrowing into the data if you know where to look.
It looks like Warren to me.
In Sheffield Hallam it would be interesting to see reciprocation.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/7/31/20749497/2020-democratic-debates-presidential-election-winners-losers-night-two
The IWA gives a figure of 668 but I don't think that includes Methodist and Baptist chapels. There are about 350 Methodist chapels and 544 baptist. So overall cut by about 75%.
But they should. This could be their Brent East, not their Newbury.
Who was the better President?
Half of the congregation of the one that closed refused to join the congregation of the one that remained open.
Here's a story for this morning though:
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/remote-welsh-chapel-theres-only-14506732
(Methodist and Baptist churches are struggling in rural England too, of course.)
Edit: that piece about the Epynt chapel and its one worshipper is lovely.
So he didn't even get credit for being a good husband.
In what has become a binary choice, second vote or no deal, fence sitters will be blown to kingdom come.
I cannot see any deal which will satisfy the majority from either side now. Any deal will be both too Brexity, or not Brexity enough.
I read the other day that he has not adjusted to a national campaign from a TX-only campaign.
And yes, I would partly agree with your post, although again, it varies. The chapels in Aberystwyth are still pretty full, those in Borth are now pretty houses.
https://morningconsult.com/2019/07/02/majority-backs-medicare-for-all-replacing-private-plans-if-preferred-providers-stay/
However, it's certainly a less popular 'progressive' policy than, for instance, the 'Green Deal', which attracts the support of over 60% of those polled.
Off topic, but I thought George Clarke's programme last night on social housing and the start of his new campaign was excellent.
The material about Vienna and social housing there (all classes, 1st class, low rent, even swimming pools, play areas etc) was really interesting.
The minister, Brokenshire (departed a week before programme aired) came across as utterly useless, just wibberling about change being important and aware of the issues etc etc.
Can Clarke do a Jamie Oliver on housing?
But in my experience such people as attend these places tend to be far more holier-than-thou, arrogant, bigoted and downright weird than religious people.
I don’t particularly trust or like Boris Johnson, but these conventions died a long time ago.
I will also be amazed if turnout drops hugely. There is apathy around, so turnout will probably drop from the GE 77% (noting that the previous Brecon by-election scored nearly 80% turnout). But I doubt you'll be able to dismiss the result on grounds of low turnout.
I am expecting a close series with a lot of results. Both teams have much better bowling attacks than batsmen. 3-4 days tests would not surprise me at all.
At the moment, the Tories are winning that battle, but you feel they are one mighty cock-up away from losing the advantage.
It's as well they've got a leader of tact, judgement, skill and experience to make sure that doesn't...ah.