politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Continuing uncertainty over a no-deal Brexit sees the pound dr
Comments
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I note that even the Brexit turd polishers are finding it hard to say anything positive about Raab.ydoethur said:Can we finally all agree on something on PB?
Dominic Raab is even more shit than Chris Grayling.0 -
Stalinists are well practiced at snuffing out dissent before it gets out of hand.ydoethur said:
The chickens are all couped up?rural_voter said:
Labour coups have been forecast and not happened for the last 50 years.FrancisUrquhart said:
By coup he means some angry tweets are coming...and then off on summer holidays and back for more of the same in a month or so.HYUFD said:0 -
In April 2012 1 litre of Unleaded cost £1.422
Today 1 litre of Unleaded costs £1.300
In April 2012 the National Minimum Wage for an adult was £6.08
Today the minimum payable to an adult over 25 is £8.31
So for 1 hours work in 2012 an adult could buy 4.276 litres of fuel.
For 1 hours work today that same adult could buy 6.393 litres of fuel.
Today someone on minimum wage can buy 50% more fuel per hour worked than someone could 7 years ago long before the referendum.
Currency is not all that matters in the debate.0 -
If it had crashed I'd be seeing a lot more of Ed Conway on my telly surely.Ishmael_Z said:
I am loving that "apparent."Philip_Thompson said:
Despite the apparent crash in the pound I'm not paying even a penny a litre more than I was for fuel priced in $'s years a couple of years before the referendum. In real terms, fuel is cheaper now than it was years ago.kjh said:I really do think HYFUD and Phillip could put a spin on anything re Brexit:
How about burning pyres of free sheep to keep us warm to replace the oil priced in $s.
Currency is not the only thing that matters.0 -
ROFLTheKrakenAwakes said:Would it not have been better for Parliament to agree the terms on which we wanted to leave the EU before heading off to Brussels to negotiate. That way we could have delayed triggering Article 50 until that point and avoided the need for all this mess.
Ah, that's a good one.0 -
A crash of 1% is rather modest.Ishmael_Z said:
I am loving that "apparent."Philip_Thompson said:
Despite the apparent crash in the pound I'm not paying even a penny a litre more than I was for fuel priced in $'s years a couple of years before the referendum. In real terms, fuel is cheaper now than it was years ago.kjh said:I really do think HYFUD and Phillip could put a spin on anything re Brexit:
How about burning pyres of free sheep to keep us warm to replace the oil priced in $s.
Currency is not the only thing that matters.0 -
My feeling as well. I only spent time in one part of the huge constituency, and a significant proportion of voters are out of realistic reach up long farm tracks and the like. The LD campaign seemed to be going well and is certainly well organised. But there was none of the enthusiasm of past by-election landslides, when people are keen to make a protest or send a message or whatever, creating an atmosphere that you can quickly pick up on. Indeed it's the apathy and discontent with all politics that you can't miss.MikeSmithson said:
Given that at GE2017 the Tories were 19.5% ahead an LD win will be enough.anothernick said:
If the LDs win big it will certainly stop a lot of the election speculation. But if the Tories win the speculation will go into overdrive.Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
I do wonder if the by-election might assume more than usual significance in the media narrative.
I was talking yesterday to a Tory activist I know who was in Brecon canvassing at the weekend. One voter told him that he'd done community service alongside the Tory candidate.
my view is that it is going to be closer.
I think the organisation and the more positive campaign (Tories and BXP Ltd have both been more negative) will hopefully see the LDs home. But I have closed out of Mike's 50% bet to be safe. Yesterday I spent about four hours delivering a surprisingly small number of houses, so there will be physical limits on what any party can achieve on polling day.0 -
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We simply do not have the weather for people to risk their annual holiday in the UK. We arrived back in the UK at the beginning of June and apart from a handful of sunny days it has pretty much rained all summer so far. I cannot wait to get away again September. If Boris's new Golden Age means holidays in Margate, frankly you can stuff itHYUFD said:
Yes, many might pick London over Paris and New York this summer or autumn.AndyJS said:
It must be nice for tourists to visit the UK and have an expensive meal for half the price for instance.HYUFD said:A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.
Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.
Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!
British tourists might holiday in Cornwall or Pembrokeshire or the Lake District rather than Spain this summer too0 -
Why not? If they bring money in I don’t see a problem.OllyT said:
I doubt that many Brexiteers would see "foreigners" coming to the UK for a cheap holiday as a Brexit bonus!AndyJS said:
It must be nice for tourists to visit the UK and have an expensive meal for half the price for instance. As for British tourists, there are plenty of places to go to in the UK.HYUFD said:A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.
Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.
Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!0 -
The pound has "crashed" by a basically margin of error change that it has been trending within in recent years. Some "crash".Ishmael_Z said:
I am loving that "apparent."Philip_Thompson said:
Despite the apparent crash in the pound I'm not paying even a penny a litre more than I was for fuel priced in $'s years a couple of years before the referendum. In real terms, fuel is cheaper now than it was years ago.kjh said:I really do think HYFUD and Phillip could put a spin on anything re Brexit:
How about burning pyres of free sheep to keep us warm to replace the oil priced in $s.
Currency is not the only thing that matters.
Hence apparent.0 -
TheKrakenAwakes said:
Can someone explain why it is that we agreed a deal with the EU BEFORE we had agreed what it was the UK Parlaiment would accept.? Would it not have been better for Parliament to agree the terms on which we wanted to leave the EU before heading off to Brussels to negotiate. That way we could have delayed triggering Article 50 until that point and avoided the need for all this mess.
Because the EU could have instantly said no. The legislature does not negotiate treaties.1 -
Yes it can effect the price, hence why I said the thing to measure that matters more than currency is the rate of inflation.kjh said:
Oh for goodness sake. Of course it isn't the only thing, but are you really suggesting that if the £ drops to the dollar it doesn't have an upward impact on oil price?Philip_Thompson said:
Despite the apparent crash in the pound I'm not paying even a penny a litre more than I was for fuel priced in $'s years a couple of years before the referendum. In real terms, fuel is cheaper now than it was years ago.kjh said:I really do think HYFUD and Phillip could put a spin on anything re Brexit:
How about burning pyres of free sheep to keep us warm to replace the oil priced in $s.
Currency is not the only thing that matters.
If it doesn't go up, something else has pushed it down and without the drop in the £ it would go down further still.
The price of fuel is in the basket of goods that inflation measures.0 -
This is ridiculous. If the £ drops against the $ Oil will cost more than it would have done otherwise. The fact that I am better off than most/all Victorians is irrelevant.Philip_Thompson said:In April 2012 1 litre of Unleaded cost £1.422
Today 1 litre of Unleaded costs £1.300
In April 2012 the National Minimum Wage for an adult was £6.08
Today the minimum payable to an adult over 25 is £8.31
So for 1 hours work in 2012 an adult could buy 4.276 litres of fuel.
For 1 hours work today that same adult could buy 6.393 litres of fuel.
Today someone on minimum wage can buy 50% more fuel per hour worked than someone could 7 years ago long before the referendum.
Currency is not all that matters in the debate.0 -
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On the last point. The Septennial Act was repealed, so a new act limiting the length of a parliament would be required. And the prerogative is a bit like Pandora’s Box. Once it has been lost, it is gone for good. Suggestions I’ve seen include a law stating that HM dissolves parliament via proclamation or order in council.Scott_P said:0 -
Not the greatest problem in the world to solve. Any Act that repeals the FTPA will simply include whatever replaces it.RobD said:
On the last point. The Septennial Act was repealed, so a new act limiting the length of a parliament would be required. And the prerogative is a bit like Pandora’s Box. Once it has been lost, it is gone for good. Suggestions I’ve seen include a law stating that HM dissolves parliament via proclamation or order in council.Scott_P said:0 -
You think 2012 was the age of the Victorians?kjh said:
This is ridiculous. If the £ drops against the $ Oil will cost more than it would have done otherwise. The fact that I am better off than most/all Victorians is irrelevant.Philip_Thompson said:In April 2012 1 litre of Unleaded cost £1.422
Today 1 litre of Unleaded costs £1.300
In April 2012 the National Minimum Wage for an adult was £6.08
Today the minimum payable to an adult over 25 is £8.31
So for 1 hours work in 2012 an adult could buy 4.276 litres of fuel.
For 1 hours work today that same adult could buy 6.393 litres of fuel.
Today someone on minimum wage can buy 50% more fuel per hour worked than someone could 7 years ago long before the referendum.
Currency is not all that matters in the debate.
Yes it does cost more, that we measure in inflation. Or do you deny that we measure inflation?0 -
Yep. It just can’t be repealed without a replacement. Otherwise there’d be no limit to the length of a Parliament!Philip_Thompson said:
Not the greatest problem in the world to solve. Any Act that repeals the FTPA will simply include whatever replaces it.RobD said:
On the last point. The Septennial Act was repealed, so a new act limiting the length of a parliament would be required. And the prerogative is a bit like Pandora’s Box. Once it has been lost, it is gone for good. Suggestions I’ve seen include a law stating that HM dissolves parliament via proclamation or order in council.Scott_P said:0 -
6% in three monthsPhilip_Thompson said:
The pound has "crashed" by a basically margin of error change that it has been trending within in recent years. Some "crash".Ishmael_Z said:
I am loving that "apparent."Philip_Thompson said:
Despite the apparent crash in the pound I'm not paying even a penny a litre more than I was for fuel priced in $'s years a couple of years before the referendum. In real terms, fuel is cheaper now than it was years ago.kjh said:I really do think HYFUD and Phillip could put a spin on anything re Brexit:
How about burning pyres of free sheep to keep us warm to replace the oil priced in $s.
Currency is not the only thing that matters.
Hence apparent.0 -
I presume that the EU side assumed the Government spoke for the British people and the British parliament. With hindsight, that was terribly naïve of them.TheKrakenAwakes said:Can someone explain why it is that we agreed a deal with the EU BEFORE we had agreed what it was the UK Parlaiment would accept.? Would it not have been better for Parliament to agree the terms on which we wanted to leave the EU before heading off to Brussels to negotiate. That way we could have delayed triggering Article 50 until that point and avoided the need for all this mess.
I remember when the Chequers "Deal" was announced that it was a sign of what a mess we were in, that it took a controversial process described that way, simply to form our side of the negotiating table. The EU negotiation mandate was publically accessible and agreed right at the start of the A50 process in comparison.
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Yep - as some have been saying on here for months - the EU is waiting for the new term to begin on November 1st.Scott_P said:0 -
Yeah pretty minor swing.nichomar said:
6% in three monthsPhilip_Thompson said:
The pound has "crashed" by a basically margin of error change that it has been trending within in recent years. Some "crash".Ishmael_Z said:
I am loving that "apparent."Philip_Thompson said:
Despite the apparent crash in the pound I'm not paying even a penny a litre more than I was for fuel priced in $'s years a couple of years before the referendum. In real terms, fuel is cheaper now than it was years ago.kjh said:I really do think HYFUD and Phillip could put a spin on anything re Brexit:
How about burning pyres of free sheep to keep us warm to replace the oil priced in $s.
Currency is not the only thing that matters.
Hence apparent.0 -
I was exaggerating to point out how ridiculous the statement was. Standards of living improve with time.Philip_Thompson said:
You think 2012 was the age of the Victorians?kjh said:
This is ridiculous. If the £ drops against the $ Oil will cost more than it would have done otherwise. The fact that I am better off than most/all Victorians is irrelevant.Philip_Thompson said:In April 2012 1 litre of Unleaded cost £1.422
Today 1 litre of Unleaded costs £1.300
In April 2012 the National Minimum Wage for an adult was £6.08
Today the minimum payable to an adult over 25 is £8.31
So for 1 hours work in 2012 an adult could buy 4.276 litres of fuel.
For 1 hours work today that same adult could buy 6.393 litres of fuel.
Today someone on minimum wage can buy 50% more fuel per hour worked than someone could 7 years ago long before the referendum.
Currency is not all that matters in the debate.
Yes it does cost more, that we measure in inflation. Or do you deny that we measure inflation?
To try and argue that a decrease in the value of the pound against the dollar in which it is priced, does not have an upward impact, is at the point of denying mathematics.0 -
Only deranged onesHYUFD said:
Yes, many might pick London over Paris and New York this summer or autumn.AndyJS said:
It must be nice for tourists to visit the UK and have an expensive meal for half the price for instance.HYUFD said:A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.
Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.
Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!
British tourists might holiday in Cornwall or Pembrokeshire or the Lake District rather than Spain this summer too0 -
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Just to remind ourselves why that might not be the worst thing:Scott_P said:
https://youtu.be/asas49ZLa980 -
I'd change it so that an early GE can be called only after the loss of a VONC that was specifically tabled by an opposition party. That would prevent:Scott_P said:
a) The absurd situation of a government VONCing itself as a loophole.
b) The LotO feeling obliged to go along with the government's call for an early GE simply for macho reasons.0 -
The MAHOOSIVE flaw with that argument: Johnson isn't threatening No Deal; he's all but promising it.DavidL said:
That would be about as unhelpful as he could be so he may well. Taking no deal off the table (as May effectively did) means the deal cannot pass because there is no downside risk for remainers. It has to be a credible option, if not one to be desired. If Hammond and May had not been so incompetent we might well have left on a deal already.williamglenn said:
Philip Hammond just needs to stand up in his resignation speech and say, "I will do whatever it takes to stop No Deal, and believe me, it will be enough."DavidL said:We are just past the 7th anniversary of Draghi's "whatever it takes" speech. At the time the future of the Euro seemed uncertain and bond rates in countries like Greece were effectively pricing that country out of the capital markets making them completely dependent on ECB funding. Now Greece is borrowing money at a lower cost than the United States. It is an extraordinary turnaround and Draghi is going into retirement with a lot to boast about.
Of course there has been a price paid in terms of unemployment and slow growth but those who were so confidently forecasting the demise of the Euro (yes, AEP, I mean you) have been shown to be completely wrong.
One of the many lessons from this success is that forecasts which simply project the current problem into the future assuming that any present trend will continue are not always reliable.
It might work if he said to Remainers:, Backstop, Customs Union, whatever you want ... but if you don't agree something it will be No Deal
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You are spinning that the drop in the £ is good news. Nobody else in the real world seems to think it is a good indicator of a healthy decision making by our leaders.Philip_Thompson said:0 -
No .... Grayling remains the "PB (Fools) Gold Standard". Rabb is "Bargain Base Metal Barometer of Bullshit."ydoethur said:Can we finally all agree on something on PB?
Dominic Raab is even more shit than Chris Grayling.
Granted that Rabb seems intent in giving Grayling a decent run for his money but the new Foreign Secretary has only been in post less than a week and time is on his side - 31st October to be precise.0 -
Wouldn’t be surprised if it was simply repealed if it ended up being that restrictive.Stark_Dawning said:
I'd change it so that an early GE can be called only after the loss of a VONC that was specifically tabled by an opposition party. That would prevent:Scott_P said:
a) The absurd situation of a government VONCing itself as a loophole.
b) The LotO feeling obliged to go along with the government's call for an early GE simply for macho reasons.0 -
I don't disagree it has an upward impact. I disagree on how much to care answer obsess over it. I'd rather look at things like inflation, real GDP, real wages etckjh said:
I was exaggerating to point out how ridiculous the statement was. Standards of living improve with time.Philip_Thompson said:
You think 2012 was the age of the Victorians?kjh said:
This is ridiculous. If the £ drops against the $ Oil will cost more than it would have done otherwise. The fact that I am better off than most/all Victorians is irrelevant.Philip_Thompson said:In April 2012 1 litre of Unleaded cost £1.422
Today 1 litre of Unleaded costs £1.300
In April 2012 the National Minimum Wage for an adult was £6.08
Today the minimum payable to an adult over 25 is £8.31
So for 1 hours work in 2012 an adult could buy 4.276 litres of fuel.
For 1 hours work today that same adult could buy 6.393 litres of fuel.
Today someone on minimum wage can buy 50% more fuel per hour worked than someone could 7 years ago long before the referendum.
Currency is not all that matters in the debate.
Yes it does cost more, that we measure in inflation. Or do you deny that we measure inflation?
To try and argue that a decrease in the value of the pound against the dollar in which it is priced, does not have an upward impact, is at the point of denying mathematics.
Given a hypothetical binary forced choice would you rather:
Sterling rises and real wages fall OR
Sterling falls and real wages rise.0 -
The Fixed Term Parliaments Act is working well. I can see why politicians don't like it, but it's not for their benefit.0
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Good luck with telling people they won't be able to go abroad for their holidays anymore but isn't it great that all the Europeans can come here and have a cheap holiday.RobD said:
Why not? If they bring money in I don’t see a problem.OllyT said:
I doubt that many Brexiteers would see "foreigners" coming to the UK for a cheap holiday as a Brexit bonus!AndyJS said:
It must be nice for tourists to visit the UK and have an expensive meal for half the price for instance. As for British tourists, there are plenty of places to go to in the UK.HYUFD said:A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.
Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.
Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!0 -
HOC Remainers had a chance to vote through May's deal. And anyone that voted to trigger Art 50 and didn't want a crash out Brexit in particular I feel were duty bound to do so, regardless of party affiliation.FF43 said:
The MAHOOSIVE flaw with that argument: Johnson isn't threatening No Deal; he's all but promising it.DavidL said:
That would be about as unhelpful as he could be so he may well. Taking no deal off the table (as May effectively did) means the deal cannot pass because there is no downside risk for remainers. It has to be a credible option, if not one to be desired. If Hammond and May had not been so incompetent we might well have left on a deal already.williamglenn said:
Philip Hammond just needs to stand up in his resignation speech and say, "I will do whatever it takes to stop No Deal, and believe me, it will be enough."DavidL said:We are just past the 7th anniversary of Draghi's "whatever it takes" speech. At the time the future of the Euro seemed uncertain and bond rates in countries like Greece were effectively pricing that country out of the capital markets making them completely dependent on ECB funding. Now Greece is borrowing money at a lower cost than the United States. It is an extraordinary turnaround and Draghi is going into retirement with a lot to boast about.
Of course there has been a price paid in terms of unemployment and slow growth but those who were so confidently forecasting the demise of the Euro (yes, AEP, I mean you) have been shown to be completely wrong.
One of the many lessons from this success is that forecasts which simply project the current problem into the future assuming that any present trend will continue are not always reliable.
It might work if he said to Remainers:, Backstop, Customs Union, whatever you want ... but if you don't agree something it will be No Deal0 -
The great news is that a lot of the hedge fund multi-millionaires who financed the Leave campaigns will be making a killing out of Johnson’s No Deal push. Maybe when they fancy a new currency position they’ll instruct Johnson to start talking.0
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Really?AlastairMeeks said:The Fixed Term Parliaments Act is working well. I can see why politicians don't like it, but it's not for their benefit.
What would have happened without it then?
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They also had the opportunity to vote on a plethora of different ideas. None received a majority.Pulpstar said:
HOC Remainers had a chance to vote through May's deal. And anyone that voted to trigger Art 50 and didn't want a crash out Brexit in particular I feel were duty bound to do so, regardless of party affiliation.FF43 said:
The MAHOOSIVE flaw with that argument: Johnson isn't threatening No Deal; he's all but promising it.DavidL said:
That would be about as unhelpful as he could be so he may well. Taking no deal off the table (as May effectively did) means the deal cannot pass because there is no downside risk for remainers. It has to be a credible option, if not one to be desired. If Hammond and May had not been so incompetent we might well have left on a deal already.williamglenn said:
Philip Hammond just needs to stand up in his resignation speech and say, "I will do whatever it takes to stop No Deal, and believe me, it will be enough."DavidL said:We are just past the 7th anniversary of Draghi's "whatever it takes" speech. At the time the future of the Euro seemed uncertain and bond rates in countries like Greece were effectively pricing that country out of the capital markets making them completely dependent on ECB funding. Now Greece is borrowing money at a lower cost than the United States. It is an extraordinary turnaround and Draghi is going into retirement with a lot to boast about.
Of course there has been a price paid in terms of unemployment and slow growth but those who were so confidently forecasting the demise of the Euro (yes, AEP, I mean you) have been shown to be completely wrong.
One of the many lessons from this success is that forecasts which simply project the current problem into the future assuming that any present trend will continue are not always reliable.
It might work if he said to Remainers:, Backstop, Customs Union, whatever you want ... but if you don't agree something it will be No Deal0 -
Is that really an issue?OllyT said:
Good luck with telling people they won't be able to go abroad for their holidays anymore but isn't it great that all the Europeans can come here and have a cheap holiday.RobD said:
Why not? If they bring money in I don’t see a problem.OllyT said:
I doubt that many Brexiteers would see "foreigners" coming to the UK for a cheap holiday as a Brexit bonus!AndyJS said:
It must be nice for tourists to visit the UK and have an expensive meal for half the price for instance. As for British tourists, there are plenty of places to go to in the UK.HYUFD said:A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.
Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.
Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!0 -
The first MV would have been a confidence issue and we’d either be out or have elected a new government.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Really?AlastairMeeks said:The Fixed Term Parliaments Act is working well. I can see why politicians don't like it, but it's not for their benefit.
What would have happened without it then?0 -
Funny when I did my Economics degree we were taught the positive and negative effects of currency changes. The major negative is inflation hence why I keep referring to inflation.kjh said:
You are spinning that the drop in the £ is good news. Nobody else in the real world seems to think it is a good indicator of a healthy decision making by our leaders.Philip_Thompson said:
If you are in an age of low inflation like we are then a more competitive exchange rate can be beneficial so long as inflation remains under control. If inflation rises significantly then we will have an issue.0 -
Some of the party political games that were played in those indicative votes were completely beyond the pale.RobD said:
They also had the opportunity to vote on a plethora of different ideas. None received a majority.Pulpstar said:
HOC Remainers had a chance to vote through May's deal. And anyone that voted to trigger Art 50 and didn't want a crash out Brexit in particular I feel were duty bound to do so, regardless of party affiliation.FF43 said:
The MAHOOSIVE flaw with that argument: Johnson isn't threatening No Deal; he's all but promising it.DavidL said:
That would be about as unhelpful as he could be so he may well. Taking no deal off the table (as May effectively did) means the deal cannot pass because there is no downside risk for remainers. It has to be a credible option, if not one to be desired. If Hammond and May had not been so incompetent we might well have left on a deal already.williamglenn said:
Philip Hammond just needs to stand up in his resignation speech and say, "I will do whatever it takes to stop No Deal, and believe me, it will be enough."DavidL said:We are just past the 7th anniversary of Draghi's "whatever it takes" speech. At the time the future of the Euro seemed uncertain and bond rates in countries like Greece were effectively pricing that country out of the capital markets making them completely dependent on ECB funding. Now Greece is borrowing money at a lower cost than the United States. It is an extraordinary turnaround and Draghi is going into retirement with a lot to boast about.
Of course there has been a price paid in terms of unemployment and slow growth but those who were so confidently forecasting the demise of the Euro (yes, AEP, I mean you) have been shown to be completely wrong.
One of the many lessons from this success is that forecasts which simply project the current problem into the future assuming that any present trend will continue are not always reliable.
It might work if he said to Remainers:, Backstop, Customs Union, whatever you want ... but if you don't agree something it will be No Deal0 -
It's not a crash; it's a plunge.
https://news.sky.com/story/pound-plunge-who-are-the-winners-and-losers-117732360 -
A little Scots affecting your composition there Jack :-)JackW said:
No .... Grayling remains the "PB (Fools) Gold Standard". Rabb is "Bargain Base Metal Barometer of Bullshit."ydoethur said:Can we finally all agree on something on PB?
Dominic Raab is even more shit than Chris Grayling.
Granted that Rabb seems intent in giving Grayling a decent run for his money but the new Foreign Secretary has only been in post less than a week and time is on his side - 31st October to be precise.1 -
That's pretty desperate stuff.OllyT said:
We simply do not have the weather for people to risk their annual holiday in the UK. We arrived back in the UK at the beginning of June and apart from a handful of sunny days it has pretty much rained all summer so far. I cannot wait to get away again September. If Boris's new Golden Age means holidays in Margate, frankly you can stuff itHYUFD said:
Yes, many might pick London over Paris and New York this summer or autumn.AndyJS said:
It must be nice for tourists to visit the UK and have an expensive meal for half the price for instance.HYUFD said:A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.
Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.
Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!
British tourists might holiday in Cornwall or Pembrokeshire or the Lake District rather than Spain this summer too0 -
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Does anyone know how Betfair eventually settled the "first leader to depart" market - was it May, Cable or a tie?0
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Dense but cunning.SouthamObserver said:0 -
It's obviously good if you're in the business of providing hospitality.OllyT said:
Good luck with telling people they won't be able to go abroad for their holidays anymore but isn't it great that all the Europeans can come here and have a cheap holiday.RobD said:
Why not? If they bring money in I don’t see a problem.OllyT said:
I doubt that many Brexiteers would see "foreigners" coming to the UK for a cheap holiday as a Brexit bonus!AndyJS said:
It must be nice for tourists to visit the UK and have an expensive meal for half the price for instance. As for British tourists, there are plenty of places to go to in the UK.HYUFD said:A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.
Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.
Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!0 -
Think of all the Spaniards who'll be able to afford a dream retirement home in Skegness.OllyT said:
I doubt that many Brexiteers would see "foreigners" coming to the UK for a cheap holiday as a Brexit bonus!AndyJS said:
It must be nice for tourists to visit the UK and have an expensive meal for half the price for instance. As for British tourists, there are plenty of places to go to in the UK.HYUFD said:A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.
Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.
Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!1 -
Not if they are no longer able to employ the people they need in order to provide that hospitality.Sean_F said:
It's obviously good if you're in the business of providing hospitality.OllyT said:
Good luck with telling people they won't be able to go abroad for their holidays anymore but isn't it great that all the Europeans can come here and have a cheap holiday.RobD said:
Why not? If they bring money in I don’t see a problem.OllyT said:
I doubt that many Brexiteers would see "foreigners" coming to the UK for a cheap holiday as a Brexit bonus!AndyJS said:
It must be nice for tourists to visit the UK and have an expensive meal for half the price for instance. As for British tourists, there are plenty of places to go to in the UK.HYUFD said:A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.
Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.
Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!
0 -
The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!0 -
They see the impoverishment of citizens and the reduction of their choices as necessary sacrifices for propitiating the Brexit deities.nico67 said:The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!0 -
The pound could hit 20 cents and it wouldn't matter if inflation was low and real wages were rising.nico67 said:The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
It wouldn't happen but that's another matter.0 -
Losing freedom is freedom.nico67 said:The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
The most important thing is that the hedge funders who paid for the Brexit result are getting an excellent return on their investment. What else actually matters?
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Cable, he departed a day earlier.bettor said:Does anyone know how Betfair eventually settled the "first leader to depart" market - was it May, Cable or a tie?
0 -
How can a collapsing currency and wage inflation coexist with low inflation?Philip_Thompson said:
The pound could hit 20 cents and it wouldn't matter if inflation was low and real wages were rising.nico67 said:The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
It wouldn't happen but that's another matter.0 -
Exactly. On the altar of Brexit everything must be sacrificed .AlastairMeeks said:
They see the impoverishment of citizens and the reduction of their choices as necessary sacrifices for propitiating the Brexit deities.nico67 said:The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
It’s become like a cult .0 -
The big signalling function (in relation to any "basket case" analogies) is where a currency trades versus implied purchasing parity (where exchange rates should settle versus each other in the longer term). The pound is nearly 25 per cent off GBP / USD PPP - that's shocking by any measure and a vote by the markets on both the UK's position today and pricing in the expected direction of travel.Philip_Thompson said:
Funny when I did my Economics degree we were taught the positive and negative effects of currency changes. The major negative is inflation hence why I keep referring to inflation.kjh said:
You are spinning that the drop in the £ is good news. Nobody else in the real world seems to think it is a good indicator of a healthy decision making by our leaders.Philip_Thompson said:
If you are in an age of low inflation like we are then a more competitive exchange rate can be beneficial so long as inflation remains under control. If inflation rises significantly then we will have an issue.0 -
Doesn't the Isle of Wight have the UK's sunniest climate? Perhaps the government could seize it and turn it into a kind of state-approved holiday resort for party members, like the Soviets did with the Black Sea.nico67 said:The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!0 -
Cheaper domestic servants, too, in basket of currency terms.SouthamObserver said:The great news is that a lot of the hedge fund multi-millionaires who financed the Leave campaigns will be making a killing out of Johnson’s No Deal push. Maybe when they fancy a new currency position they’ll instruct Johnson to start talking.
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Cable, by a day.bettor said:Does anyone know how Betfair eventually settled the "first leader to depart" market - was it May, Cable or a tie?
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It's the same shape as the Crimea too.Stark_Dawning said:
Doesn't the Isle of Wight have the UK's sunniest climate? Perhaps the government could seize it and turn it into a kind of state-approved holiday resort for party members, like the Soviets did with the Black Sea.nico67 said:The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!0 -
The good news for Boris is that rocketing food prices cease to be a problem if there isn't any food in the shops.0
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It does matter - if your standard of living is lower due to imports being more expensive.Philip_Thompson said:
The pound could hit 20 cents and it wouldn't matter if inflation was low and real wages were rising.nico67 said:The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
It wouldn't happen but that's another matter.
Oh and we import most of our food so that's a bit of a problem.0 -
Sssh! Vladimir might be watching.Tabman said:
It's the same shape as the Crimea too.Stark_Dawning said:
Doesn't the Isle of Wight have the UK's sunniest climate? Perhaps the government could seize it and turn it into a kind of state-approved holiday resort for party members, like the Soviets did with the Black Sea.nico67 said:The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!1 -
Jim O'Neill is one of my favourite ex-GoldmanitesCyclefree said:For a view from an ex-Goldman staffer on what currency traders might be up to -
Jim O’Neil, ex Goldman on @BBCWorldatOne: “A lot of big foreign exchange and hedge fund type people [are] probably looking at what’s coming out the UK as almost close to a free lunch... [A lot] are saying thank goodness for Boris, he’s giving us a chance to make some money.”
— Henry Mance (@henrymance) July 30, 20190 -
Please don't make me post the figures again. Every few years or months, somebody on PB (it might be you: apologies if it isn't) says that the pound has not fallen in value, I go to the bother of actually posting the figures, then there is silence, then 6-12 months later we do it all over again.Philip_Thompson said:
The pound has "crashed" by a basically margin of error change that it has been trending within in recent years. Some "crash".Ishmael_Z said:
I am loving that "apparent."Philip_Thompson said:
Despite the apparent crash in the pound I'm not paying even a penny a litre more than I was for fuel priced in $'s years a couple of years before the referendum. In real terms, fuel is cheaper now than it was years ago.kjh said:I really do think HYFUD and Phillip could put a spin on anything re Brexit:
How about burning pyres of free sheep to keep us warm to replace the oil priced in $s.
Currency is not the only thing that matters.
Hence apparent.0 -
If you voted for A50, you voted for the risk the EU would pull the plug so the UK goes direct to No Deal. Even that is discretionary, as we now know, because the UK has the right to revoke A50.Pulpstar said:
HOC Remainers had a chance to vote through May's deal. And anyone that voted to trigger Art 50 and didn't want a crash out Brexit in particular I feel were duty bound to do so, regardless of party affiliation.FF43 said:
The MAHOOSIVE flaw with that argument: Johnson isn't threatening No Deal; he's all but promising it.DavidL said:
That would be about as unhelpful as he could be so he may well. Taking no deal off the table (as May effectively did) means the deal cannot pass because there is no downside risk for remainers. It has to be a credible option, if not one to be desired. If Hammond and May had not been so incompetent we might well have left on a deal already.williamglenn said:
Philip Hammond just needs to stand up in his resignation speech and say, "I will do whatever it takes to stop No Deal, and believe me, it will be enough."DavidL said:We are just past the 7th anniversary of Draghi's "whatever it takes" speech. At the time the future of the Euro seemed uncertain and bond rates in countries like Greece were effectively pricing that country out of the capital markets making them completely dependent on ECB funding. Now Greece is borrowing money at a lower cost than the United States. It is an extraordinary turnaround and Draghi is going into retirement with a lot to boast about.
Of course there has been a price paid in terms of unemployment and slow growth but those who were so confidently forecasting the demise of the Euro (yes, AEP, I mean you) have been shown to be completely wrong.
One of the many lessons from this success is that forecasts which simply project the current problem into the future assuming that any present trend will continue are not always reliable.
It might work if he said to Remainers:, Backstop, Customs Union, whatever you want ... but if you don't agree something it will be No Deal
No-one is committed to trashing the country simply because Johnson and his faction choose to scorch the earth.0 -
"In a way it is surprising that this wasn’t anticipated."
I thought this would happen and booked my late autumn accommodation, flight and bought my holiday Euros the day before Johnson took office. I felt in the first few hours as though I was being too cautious by doing this but it may well be the case I pre-empted an even worse exchange rate than we had.
I doubt BJ will get a deal by 31st October but if he did I would expect Sterling to rise against the Euro. I go abroad for the warmer temperatures and sunshine in late autumn, which even with global warming we are unlikely to experience in the UK.
I think when talking about currency movements one has to remember Jacob Rees-Mogg has a hedge fund that invested outside the UK in Euros for instance in preparedness for a No Deal Brexit. That he has a financial interest in such an extreme Government policy whilst being a member of the Cabinet is something that warrants investigation IMO.0 -
At £1=0.2 USD my laptop would cost me £5000. I think I would notice that.Philip_Thompson said:
The pound could hit 20 cents and it wouldn't matter if inflation was low and real wages were rising.nico67 said:The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
Some things you can't get in the UK and for which there is no local substitute. We don't have any uranium or coltan mines, for example.
0 -
I do Briskin, that and other indexesJBriskinindyref2 said:Isn't the Footsie supposed to go up when sterling drops - is anyone here worrying about that??
0 -
Fortunately for me, the Hungarian forint is nearly as much a basket case currency as sterling, so my trip away this weekend won't be too painful.0
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He could just buy it. Cheaper than mounting an invasion. He already owns half of London as it is.dixiedean said:
Sssh! Vladimir might be watching.Tabman said:
It's the same shape as the Crimea too.Stark_Dawning said:
Doesn't the Isle of Wight have the UK's sunniest climate? Perhaps the government could seize it and turn it into a kind of state-approved holiday resort for party members, like the Soviets did with the Black Sea.nico67 said:The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!0 -
0
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If the pound has fallen dramatically repeatedly for each of the last 6 to 12 month periods then it will be considerably lower now.viewcode said:
Please don't make me post the figures again. Every few years or months, somebody on PB (it might be you: apologies if it isn't) says that the pound has not fallen in value, I go to the bother of actually posting the figures, then there is silence, then 6-12 months later we do it all over again.Philip_Thompson said:
The pound has "crashed" by a basically margin of error change that it has been trending within in recent years. Some "crash".Ishmael_Z said:
I am loving that "apparent."Philip_Thompson said:
Despite the apparent crash in the pound I'm not paying even a penny a litre more than I was for fuel priced in $'s years a couple of years before the referendum. In real terms, fuel is cheaper now than it was years ago.kjh said:I really do think HYFUD and Phillip could put a spin on anything re Brexit:
How about burning pyres of free sheep to keep us warm to replace the oil priced in $s.
Currency is not the only thing that matters.
Hence apparent.
So compared to 1 September 2017 which is nearly 24 months ago or time for nearly 4x 6 month worth of falls ... so how much lower is the pound to the Euro now than 1 September 2017?0 -
I think it would matter if you ever wanted to buy anything from anywhere that wasn't the UK......Philip_Thompson said:
The pound could hit 20 cents and it wouldn't matter if inflation was low and real wages were rising.nico67 said:The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
It wouldn't happen but that's another matter.0 -
Well. That's one way of funding Boris' promises.Tabman said:
He could just buy it. Cheaper than mounting an invasion. He already owns half of London as it is.dixiedean said:
Sssh! Vladimir might be watching.Tabman said:
It's the same shape as the Crimea too.Stark_Dawning said:
Doesn't the Isle of Wight have the UK's sunniest climate? Perhaps the government could seize it and turn it into a kind of state-approved holiday resort for party members, like the Soviets did with the Black Sea.nico67 said:The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!0 -
Remind me, is Andrew Lilico still agitating for the abolition of the monarchy because the Queen did not withhold Royal assent to the Cooper-Letwin Bill?williamglenn said:"No-one anticipated a deal"
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/11562037473847459840 -
Hence the inflation comment.MrsB said:
I think it would matter if you ever wanted to buy anything from anywhere that wasn't the UK......Philip_Thompson said:
The pound could hit 20 cents and it wouldn't matter if inflation was low and real wages were rising.nico67 said:The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
It wouldn't happen but that's another matter.0 -
Isn't he bitter that she signed the EEC act in the first place?AlastairMeeks said:
Remind me, is Andrew Lilico still agitating for the abolition of the monarchy because the Queen did not withhold Royal assent to the Cooper-Letwin Bill?williamglenn said:"No-one anticipated a deal"
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1156203747384745984
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0
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In a sense he's right. The Leave campaigns assured everyone that there would be a smooth transition, zero disruption, no tariffs, no disturbance to car manufacturing, and that we'd be part of a free trade area from Ireland to Turkey. The idea that this would all require a deal with the EU was indeed never mentioned.williamglenn said:"No-one anticipated a deal"
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/11562037473847459840 -
I don't believe it will. Considering our currency has fallen by 80% to the dollar over decades why doesn't your laptop already cost 5x what it does in the USA In real terms?viewcode said:
At £1=0.2 USD my laptop would cost me £5000. I think I would notice that.Philip_Thompson said:
The pound could hit 20 cents and it wouldn't matter if inflation was low and real wages were rising.nico67 said:The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
Some things you can't get in the UK and for which there is no local substitute. We don't have any uranium or coltan mines, for example.0 -
Well me and Ms Brisk are only allowed 5k savings (we must be great for GDP figures) so it doesn't really affect us. I'd have thought the high-flyers of PB might be concerned though - we need Conway to explain what went wrong today. (it keeps saying coming up RE: pound but it wasn't on last hour)malcolmg said:
I do Briskin, that and other indexesJBriskinindyref2 said:Isn't the Footsie supposed to go up when sterling drops - is anyone here worrying about that??
0 -
I think we just have to Believe in Britain and Believe in Boris and look for the positives.Chris said:The good news for Boris is that rocketing food prices cease to be a problem if there isn't any food in the shops.
For example, if we have to have rationing, then the identification of Boris as a latter-day Churchill will be so much the stronger. When we see a picture of him standing there sticking two fingers up at us, we'll instinctively think, "We love him, and we owe him everything."
Or if not quite that at least, "None of this would have happened if it hadn't been for him."0 -
But let's ask ourselves why anyone should ever want to do that?MrsB said:
I think it would matter if you ever wanted to buy anything from anywhere that wasn't the UK......Philip_Thompson said:
The pound could hit 20 cents and it wouldn't matter if inflation was low and real wages were rising.nico67 said:The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
It wouldn't happen but that's another matter.
Unless they were secretly some kind of foreigner, that is.1 -
Exactly right. Poor Chris Grayling, how quickly we forget.JackW said:
No .... Grayling remains the "PB (Fools) Gold Standard". Rabb is "Bargain Base Metal Barometer of Bullshit."ydoethur said:Can we finally all agree on something on PB?
Dominic Raab is even more shit than Chris Grayling.
Granted that Rabb seems intent in giving Grayling a decent run for his money but the new Foreign Secretary has only been in post less than a week and time is on his side - 31st October to be precise.
Also Raab is struggling with a very difficult task. Grayling was just screwing up normal stuff like there was no tomorrow.0 -
How come you're only allowed 5k in savings ?JBriskinindyref2 said:
Well me and Ms Brisk are only allowed 5k savings (we must be great for GDP figures) so it doesn't really affect us. I'd have thought the high-flyers of PB might be concerned though - we need Conway to explain what went wrong today. (it keeps saying coming up RE: pound but it wasn't on last hour)malcolmg said:
I do Briskin, that and other indexesJBriskinindyref2 said:Isn't the Footsie supposed to go up when sterling drops - is anyone here worrying about that??
0 -
I wonder if any honeymoon or bounce is over already for Boris Johnson and the Tories? Higher petrol prices through a worse Pound/Dollar exchange rate will be the thing people notice first should Sterling continue to slide. I suppose it depends on how sudden the shock is in price rises at the pumps or bus fare increases. People can see the relationship from a Government policy and its impact on their life.Chris said:
I think we just have to Believe in Britain and Believe in Boris and look for the positives.Chris said:The good news for Boris is that rocketing food prices cease to be a problem if there isn't any food in the shops.
For example, if we have to have rationing, then the identification of Boris as a latter-day Churchill will be so much the stronger. When we see a picture of him standing there sticking two fingers up at us, we'll instinctively think, "We love him, and we owe him everything."
Or if not quite that at least, "None of this would have happened if it hadn't been for him."0 -
Tell me please when foreign produced goods were taken out of the basket of goods that exists to measure inflation.MrsB said:
I think it would matter if you ever wanted to buy anything from anywhere that wasn't the UK......Philip_Thompson said:
The pound could hit 20 cents and it wouldn't matter if inflation was low and real wages were rising.nico67 said:The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
It wouldn't happen but that's another matter.0
