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We will not have billions to spend. £33 billion (we've already handed over some of the money) is a rounding error compared to the higher borrowing costs, reduced tax take and lower inward investment No Deal will lead to. The money that would have been sent to Brussels will be spent on plugging gaps in current spending commitments.Philip_Thompson said:
The country won't implode. We can just get on with erecting a hard Irish border if necessary since that's what the Irish have chosen to have due to not compromising, we will have billions to spend on whatever we want and we will be free to control our own destiny. Nothing scary in any of that.Mexicanpete said:
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
We would face some disruption but the worst of it will be up front, once time goes on we'll get used to our lives in our new paradigm.
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And it should have been cross party. It's become a party political issue now. Staying out of the EU now requires keeping the Tories in power. For ever.Philip_Thompson said:
We shouldn't have invoked Article 50 for a couple of years until we were talking on an equal playing field with the EU27, as Vote Leave said.williamglenn said:
It's a fantasy. Where does Article 50 and the EU27 fit into this plan?Philip_Thompson said:
Good plan. Better than what Theresa May did, shame she spurned it.williamglenn said:
You sure about that? This was their laughable 'plan':Philip_Thompson said:
Vote Leave came up with a very clear, clean and straightforward way of leaving. Lets hope we finally do it now.Sandpit said:
The Vote Leave campaign operates under the parameters of the question and legislation they were given by the 2015 Parliament. It’s not a campaigner’s fault that Parliament left the question so open-ended.williamglenn said:
The Vote Leave campaign is one of the main reasons that Brexit has been a complete car crash for the last three years. Nigel Farage has far more political nous than Dominic Cummings.Sandpit said:
Ooh, what a surprise! A Guardian hit-piece on Dominic Cummings, that could mostly have been written three years ago after he masterminded the Vote Leave campaign.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/7441389493842780160 -
Wow. And ditto for AM's one. Co-incidences are (usually) rather nice affairs.Stark_Dawning said:Spooky. This is my favourite personal coincidence. I once inexplicably forgot my cashpoint PIN; however, the friend I was with was able to tell me it because he'd looked over my shoulder and memorized it on a previous occasion (for some strange reason). Anyway, with cash in hand we went to the pub. As we sat down with our drinks 'Roxanne' by The Police was playing on the jukebox. The disc number/track number was also being displayed. It was the same number as my PIN.
My most recent one (which was nice in a way) was when I was walking along a quiet street just off Piccadilly and apropos of nothing at all I started thinking about Toby Young. Not something I do a great deal of, I must stress, otherwise what then happened would not class as remotely amazing. Because what did happen, and it was literally maybe 60 seconds after I began thinking of him, was that Toby Young stepped out of a doorway a few yards from me, some sort of commercial premises I think, looked around quickly, like he was unsure about something, and then strode briskly off. It was as if I had 'summoned' him.0 -
I just wish people could somehow be made responsible for such wild and reckless speculation.Philip_Thompson said:
Bugger all.SouthamObserver said:
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
Just like nothing much happens due to there being a hard border for Income Tax, VAT, Corporation Tax, Abortion, Gay Marriage or whatever else you can think of.0 -
Do you know what percentage of Northern Ireland's export market the Republic of Ireland comprises?Philip_Thompson said:
Bugger all.SouthamObserver said:
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
Just like nothing much happens due to there being a hard border for Income Tax, VAT, Corporation Tax, Abortion, Gay Marriage or whatever else you can think of.
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Snow cancels Tour de France in mid race. Snow ploughs out
Crazy weather0 -
Nah, the softest of soft borders is only in play because of British goodwill.Philip_Thompson said:
Bugger all.SouthamObserver said:
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
Just like nothing much happens due to there being a hard border for Income Tax, VAT, Corporation Tax, Abortion, Gay Marriage or whatever else you can think of.
The IRA might return; that's a minus point - But at least they won't get to co-govern NI anymore; that's a bonus0 -
Team sky, i meab ineos are going to win the tour de france again.0
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you forgot about the 5 million unemployedSouthamObserver said:
We will not have billions to spend. £33 billion (we've already handed over some of the money) is a rounding error compared to the higher borrowing costs, reduced tax take and lower inward investment No Deal will lead to. The money that would have been sent to Brussels will be spent on plugging gaps in current spending commitments.Philip_Thompson said:
The country won't implode. We can just get on with erecting a hard Irish border if necessary since that's what the Irish have chosen to have due to not compromising, we will have billions to spend on whatever we want and we will be free to control our own destiny. Nothing scary in any of that.Mexicanpete said:
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
We would face some disruption but the worst of it will be up front, once time goes on we'll get used to our lives in our new paradigm.0 -
The WTO. British.MarqueeMark said:
Who is imposing it? And whose army will protect it?SouthamObserver said:
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.0 -
Mr. Thompson, that would entail us having two different border arrangements with the EU, which operates under a single system...0
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BBC reporting 38.7 degC yesterday tbc. Breaks the UK record if confirmed.0
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Alan, Alan now now.Alanbrooke said:
yesSouthamObserver said:
Really?Alanbrooke said:
nothing much franklySouthamObserver said:
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-48934706
the whole thing is simply a crass negotiating ploy by people who should know better
We could strike up some kind of a bet but it would a) be and remain hypothetical; and b) be in very bad taste.
Not that gallows humour has ever been an unknown quantity in the six counties.0 -
Not really the only way, your preferred way no doubtChris said:
The EU can refuse an extension, and the only way around that would be for us to revoke.JBriskinindyref2 said:Okay I've got a commons procedural question (annoyingly I've forgotten the name of the guy who wrote down our unwritten constitution)
If Commons votes against No Deal
What happens?
We have to ask for an extension? But then what if the EU refuses extension.
I think Halloween no-deal Brexit is still very likely0 -
I doubt that will happen. There will be jobs as gaps currently taken by EU workers will have to be filled. The issue is much more about how much they will pay - and how much it will cost the UK government. Social care is an obvious example.Alanbrooke said:
you forgot about the 5 million unemployedSouthamObserver said:
We will not have billions to spend. £33 billion (we've already handed over some of the money) is a rounding error compared to the higher borrowing costs, reduced tax take and lower inward investment No Deal will lead to. The money that would have been sent to Brussels will be spent on plugging gaps in current spending commitments.Philip_Thompson said:
The country won't implode. We can just get on with erecting a hard Irish border if necessary since that's what the Irish have chosen to have due to not compromising, we will have billions to spend on whatever we want and we will be free to control our own destiny. Nothing scary in any of that.Mexicanpete said:
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
We would face some disruption but the worst of it will be up front, once time goes on we'll get used to our lives in our new paradigm.
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Why is every non-standard food animal described as tasting like chicken??Chris said:
I've read that rat's meat tastes rather like chicken.Philip_Thompson said:
The country won't implode. We can just get on with erecting a hard Irish border if necessary since that's what the Irish have chosen to have due to not compromising, we will have billions to spend on whatever we want and we will be free to control our own destiny. Nothing scary in any of that.Mexicanpete said:
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
We would face some disruption but the worst of it will be up front, once time goes on we'll get used to our lives in our new paradigm.0 -
Is that chlorinated rat?Chris said:
I've read that rat's meat tastes rather like chicken.Philip_Thompson said:
The country won't implode. We can just get on with erecting a hard Irish border if necessary since that's what the Irish have chosen to have due to not compromising, we will have billions to spend on whatever we want and we will be free to control our own destiny. Nothing scary in any of that.Mexicanpete said:
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
We would face some disruption but the worst of it will be up front, once time goes on we'll get used to our lives in our new paradigm.0 -
Bloody typical of the french...a bit of bad weather and they wave the white flag ;-) if that had been the tour of yorkshire, they would still be going...each with a set of inflatable armbands on for the section which require wading through a newly formed lake.Big_G_NorthWales said:Snow cancels Tour de France in mid race. Snow ploughs out
Crazy weather0 -
If the UK starts to implode Johnson should resign and propose that he gives way to a GNU led by Ken Clarke ... or Rachel Johnson, whose views on EU membership at least seem consistent.StuartDickson said:
An offer you can’t refuse.Mexicanpete said:
The Russian Federation?ralphmalph said:
This point is so overlooked. After sitting on the fence for decades we are now in play. The EU want us 100% in their sphere of influence and the USA in theirs.Alanbrooke said:
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealingMexicanpete said:
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
What looks certain is that the fence sitting will not be allowed in the future so who is offering the best deal?
It pains me to say it but Brussels democracy with PR and several other checks and balances beats Whitehall so-called democracy with FPTP. With extra democratic features like a directly-elected EU executive and senate, what's not to like?0 -
It's the chlorine.TOPPING said:
Why is every non-standard food animal described as tasting like chicken??Chris said:
I've read that rat's meat tastes rather like chicken.Philip_Thompson said:
The country won't implode. We can just get on with erecting a hard Irish border if necessary since that's what the Irish have chosen to have due to not compromising, we will have billions to spend on whatever we want and we will be free to control our own destiny. Nothing scary in any of that.Mexicanpete said:
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
We would face some disruption but the worst of it will be up front, once time goes on we'll get used to our lives in our new paradigm.0 -
Is that the chlorinated or non-chlorinated version?Chris said:
I've read that rat's meat tastes rather like chicken.Philip_Thompson said:
The country won't implode. We can just get on with erecting a hard Irish border if necessary since that's what the Irish have chosen to have due to not compromising, we will have billions to spend on whatever we want and we will be free to control our own destiny. Nothing scary in any of that.Mexicanpete said:
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
We would face some disruption but the worst of it will be up front, once time goes on we'll get used to our lives in our new paradigm.0 -
Governed by the likes of Junker? No thanks.rural_voter said:
If the UK starts to implode Johnson should resign and propose that he gives way to a GNU led by Ken Clarke ... or Rachel Johnson, whose views on EU membership at least seem consistent.StuartDickson said:
An offer you can’t refuse.Mexicanpete said:
The Russian Federation?ralphmalph said:
This point is so overlooked. After sitting on the fence for decades we are now in play. The EU want us 100% in their sphere of influence and the USA in theirs.Alanbrooke said:
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealingMexicanpete said:
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
What looks certain is that the fence sitting will not be allowed in the future so who is offering the best deal?
It pains me to say it but Brussels democracy with PR and several other checks and balances beats Whitehall so-called democracy with FPTP. With extra democratic features like a directly-elected EU executive and senate, what's not to like?0 -
The HOC cannot stop no deal. Legislation has to be enabled and there lies the problemJBriskinindyref2 said:
Okay,Chris said:
The EU can refuse an extension, and the only way around that would be for us to revoke.JBriskinindyref2 said:Okay I've got a commons procedural question (annoyingly I've forgotten the name of the guy who wrote down our unwritten constitution)
If Commons votes against No Deal
What happens?
We have to ask for an extension? But then what if the EU refuses extension.
I think Halloween no-deal Brexit is still very likely
Has the commons not voted against No Deal yet? Did they get too frit or something.
They might get frit again.
Halloween No-deal Brexit Nailed On
Legislation is at the behest of HMG unless the mps can find a way round it which is why Grieve and others are desperately trying0 -
5% of GDP approximately.SouthamObserver said:
Do you know what percentage of Northern Ireland's export market the Republic of Ireland comprises?Philip_Thompson said:
Bugger all.SouthamObserver said:
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
Just like nothing much happens due to there being a hard border for Income Tax, VAT, Corporation Tax, Abortion, Gay Marriage or whatever else you can think of.
About 1/3rd of what goes to Great Britain.0 -
You do realise he's going?RobD said:
Governed by the likes of Junker? No thanks.rural_voter said:
If the UK starts to implode Johnson should resign and propose that he gives way to a GNU led by Ken Clarke ... or Rachel Johnson, whose views on EU membership at least seem consistent.StuartDickson said:
An offer you can’t refuse.Mexicanpete said:
The Russian Federation?ralphmalph said:
This point is so overlooked. After sitting on the fence for decades we are now in play. The EU want us 100% in their sphere of influence and the USA in theirs.Alanbrooke said:
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealingMexicanpete said:
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
What looks certain is that the fence sitting will not be allowed in the future so who is offering the best deal?
It pains me to say it but Brussels democracy with PR and several other checks and balances beats Whitehall so-called democracy with FPTP. With extra democratic features like a directly-elected EU executive and senate, what's not to like?0 -
Lol - "extra democratic features"rural_voter said:
If the UK starts to implode Johnson should resign and propose that he gives way to a GNU led by Ken Clarke ... or Rachel Johnson, whose views on EU membership at least seem consistent.StuartDickson said:
An offer you can’t refuse.Mexicanpete said:
The Russian Federation?ralphmalph said:
This point is so overlooked. After sitting on the fence for decades we are now in play. The EU want us 100% in their sphere of influence and the USA in theirs.Alanbrooke said:
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealingMexicanpete said:
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
What looks certain is that the fence sitting will not be allowed in the future so who is offering the best deal?
It pains me to say it but Brussels democracy with PR and several other checks and balances beats Whitehall so-called democracy with FPTP. With extra democratic features like a directly-elected EU executive and senate, what's not to like?
This EU democracy is better than UK democracy thing has been done.
Personaly I think those on the EU side are just not that intelligent.0 -
Full list of Cabinet per Parliament website.
Perhaps surprisingly Raab is only number 4 despite being First Sec of State. Gove number 2, Javid number 3.
https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/government-and-opposition1/her-majestys-government/
EDIT: Just realised Gove and Javid aren't Secretaries of State - they are both Chancellors!0 -
By the likes of....logical_song said:
You do realise he's going?RobD said:
Governed by the likes of Junker? No thanks.rural_voter said:
If the UK starts to implode Johnson should resign and propose that he gives way to a GNU led by Ken Clarke ... or Rachel Johnson, whose views on EU membership at least seem consistent.StuartDickson said:
An offer you can’t refuse.Mexicanpete said:
The Russian Federation?ralphmalph said:
This point is so overlooked. After sitting on the fence for decades we are now in play. The EU want us 100% in their sphere of influence and the USA in theirs.Alanbrooke said:
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealingMexicanpete said:
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
What looks certain is that the fence sitting will not be allowed in the future so who is offering the best deal?
It pains me to say it but Brussels democracy with PR and several other checks and balances beats Whitehall so-called democracy with FPTP. With extra democratic features like a directly-elected EU executive and senate, what's not to like?0 -
To be replaced by someone even less elected than he was.logical_song said:
You do realise he's going?RobD said:
Governed by the likes of Junker? No thanks.rural_voter said:
If the UK starts to implode Johnson should resign and propose that he gives way to a GNU led by Ken Clarke ... or Rachel Johnson, whose views on EU membership at least seem consistent.StuartDickson said:
An offer you can’t refuse.Mexicanpete said:
The Russian Federation?ralphmalph said:
This point is so overlooked. After sitting on the fence for decades we are now in play. The EU want us 100% in their sphere of influence and the USA in theirs.Alanbrooke said:
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealingMexicanpete said:
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
What looks certain is that the fence sitting will not be allowed in the future so who is offering the best deal?
It pains me to say it but Brussels democracy with PR and several other checks and balances beats Whitehall so-called democracy with FPTP. With extra democratic features like a directly-elected EU executive and senate, what's not to like?
Who comes and goes is irrelevant, how we elect them is what matters.0 -
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2019/provisional-hottest-day-on-recordSandyRentool said:BBC reporting 38.7 degC yesterday tbc. Breaks the UK record if confirmed.
0 -
Interesting if there is an order that Gove is listed ahead of Chancellor of the Exchequer.MikeL said:Full list of Cabinet per Parliament website.
Perhaps surprisingly Raab is only number 4 despite being First Sec of State. Gove number 2, Javid number 3.
https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/government-and-opposition1/her-majestys-government/
EDIT: Just realised Gove and Javid aren't Secretaries of State - they are both Chancellors!0 -
If the HOC cannot stop no deal - then how come they keep banging on about how they're going to stop no deal. Must be some very well thumbed Erskine May's kicking about.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The HOC cannot stop no deal. Legislation has to be enabled and there lies the problemJBriskinindyref2 said:
Okay,Chris said:
The EU can refuse an extension, and the only way around that would be for us to revoke.JBriskinindyref2 said:Okay I've got a commons procedural question (annoyingly I've forgotten the name of the guy who wrote down our unwritten constitution)
If Commons votes against No Deal
What happens?
We have to ask for an extension? But then what if the EU refuses extension.
I think Halloween no-deal Brexit is still very likely
Has the commons not voted against No Deal yet? Did they get too frit or something.
They might get frit again.
Halloween No-deal Brexit Nailed On
Legislation is at the behest of HMG unless the mps can find a way round it which is why Grieve and others are desperately trying0 -
Spending billions to recruit the 20,000 policemen that Johnson and co voted to do away with is one hell of a thing, isn't it?Big_G_NorthWales said:
And in the meantime the opposition has gone on holiday giving Boris and his cabinet six weeks to firm up their GE manifesto and start recruiting the 20,000 police officers.OnlyLivingBoy said:Johnson is preparing for a populist election campaign in the Autumn.
Step 1 is to establish the EU as the enemy without. So he asks for something he knows they won't agree to (removing the backstop). When they refuse, he casts them as intransigent and prepares for no deal.
This sets up step 2, where he establishes parliament as the enemy within, by presenting them with no deal, which they will feel obliged to block in order to prevent chaos.
Most likely they "force" him into an election, where he can pose as defending the will of the people against both sets of enemies.
It's not very subtle but it may be effective.
Boris is going to be in the media virtually everyday almost unchallenged
I am very wary of Boris hard ball attitude to the EU. It is a high stakes gamble and no one can possibly tell who is going to cave in. The one thing is certain, on the 1st November the EU will either have to install a border or put in place alternative arrangements if we no deal
I cannot believe that even the EU would be so unwise to be seen putting a hard border in Ireland
Many on here are defending their entrenched views of how each side with react to this crisis but in truth no one on PB can say with any certainty how this will unfold.
I for one am keeping an open mind
If you are interested in what is likely to happen when we crash out, this is very good. Tony Connelly is probably the best-informed Irish journalist there is when it comes to Brexit:
https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2019/0330/1039471-brexit-no-deal-tony-connelly/
0 -
All we want to know is - Who's the PMQ's stand-in.Philip_Thompson said:
Interesting if there is an order that Gove is listed ahead of Chancellor of the Exchequer.MikeL said:Full list of Cabinet per Parliament website.
Perhaps surprisingly Raab is only number 4 despite being First Sec of State. Gove number 2, Javid number 3.
https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/government-and-opposition1/her-majestys-government/
EDIT: Just realised Gove and Javid aren't Secretaries of State - they are both Chancellors!0 -
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/26/election-labour-johnson-tory-vote-jeremy-corbyn
Many of you here do not like him - but this is a good article.0 -
-
Depends if the EU wishes to keep a hard Irish border . . . forever.surbiton19 said:
Let's get one thing straight. If the WA is not passed [ even an amended one ], there will be no FTA....oh, I forgot they need us more than we need them.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
Once we've exited cleanly without folding on the backstop an FTA will be the best way for them to deal with the Irish issue.0 -
Remaining is simple, but there are loads of flavours of Leave.Philip_Thompson said:
Parliament not Cameron chose the question and anything more than a binary choice would have led to screams of outrage that their particular granular choice wasn't an option.kinabalu said:
But with hindsight, a more granular choice in 2016 might have been better.Philip_Thompson said:That's bonkers!
Remain and rejoice is a subset of remain.
Just as leave and EEA, leave and FTA, leave and WTO are all subsets of leave.
Leave. Repeat Leave. JFDI.
Leave in a calm orderly adult fashion, respecting the Union and the GFA.
Remain.
REMAIN & REJOICE.
By preference voting - e.g. AV.
Whatever won would then have been a clear and deliverable choice.
But no, Cameron knew best ...
We leave or we remain. How we leave or how we remain is then a matter for Parliament.
As illustrated by the ERG rejecting Mrs May's version.0 -
I can't see Trump adding four new Democrat states!ralphmalph said:
This point is so overlooked. After sitting on the fence for decades we are now in play. The EU want us 100% in their sphere of influence and the USA in theirs.Alanbrooke said:
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealingMexicanpete said:
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
What looks certain is that the fence sitting will not be allowed in the future so who is offering the best deal?0 -
And the fact most FPTP seats can be won by a monkey with the right coloured rosette is a reason why UK democracy is better?JBriskinindyref2 said:
Lol - "extra democratic features"rural_voter said:
If the UK starts to implode Johnson should resign and propose that he gives way to a GNU led by Ken Clarke ... or Rachel Johnson, whose views on EU membership at least seem consistent.StuartDickson said:
An offer you can’t refuse.Mexicanpete said:
The Russian Federation?ralphmalph said:
This point is so overlooked. After sitting on the fence for decades we are now in play. The EU want us 100% in their sphere of influence and the USA in theirs.Alanbrooke said:
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealingMexicanpete said:
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
What looks certain is that the fence sitting will not be allowed in the future so who is offering the best deal?
It pains me to say it but Brussels democracy with PR and several other checks and balances beats Whitehall so-called democracy with FPTP. With extra democratic features like a directly-elected EU executive and senate, what's not to like?
This EU democracy is better than UK democracy thing has been done.
Personaly I think those on the EU side are just not that intelligent.0 -
It could absolutely be this. I'm starting to think so. And I hope so because, boy, do I want that 'Brexit' election. What a mouthwatering prospect.OnlyLivingBoy said:Johnson is preparing for a populist election campaign in the Autumn.
Step 1 is to establish the EU as the enemy without. So he asks for something he knows they won't agree to (removing the backstop). When they refuse, he casts them as intransigent and prepares for no deal.
This sets up step 2, where he establishes parliament as the enemy within, by presenting them with no deal, which they will feel obliged to block in order to prevent chaos.
Most likely they "force" him into an election, where he can pose as defending the will of the people against both sets of enemies.
It's not very subtle but it may be effective.
But I'm not ready yet to ditch the more prosaic alternative. Johnson sells out the ERG and agrees an extension into 2020, gambling (successfully) that they won't bring him down. He then makes a serious effort to pass the WA.0 -
Horribly, your latter hypothesis might be correct. A perhaps more subtle formulation was that they honestly believed that something would happen to render no-deal unnecessary. This was at best careless and at worst blind stupidity.Philip_Thompson said:
All these "principled" resignations are from people who served under "No deal is better than a bad deal" May for years.Scott_P said:
Why is no deal 2.5 years into the 2 year window of Article 50 so unacceptable, but it was acceptable to state as your option for years?
Or was it just on an assumption that May was lying to everyone and would never follow through whereas Boris might be telling the truth?0 -
Mr. eek, better than a monkey winning with no rosette at all
0 -
I agreesurbiton19 said:https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/26/election-labour-johnson-tory-vote-jeremy-corbyn
Many of you here do not like him - but this is a good article.0 -
The FPTP system is a neutral in this argument. Personally I'm a party list kind of guy.eek said:
And the fact most FPTP seats can be won by a monkey with the right coloured rosette is a reason why UK democracy is better?JBriskinindyref2 said:
Lol - "extra democratic features"rural_voter said:
If the UK starts to implode Johnson should resign and propose that he gives way to a GNU led by Ken Clarke ... or Rachel Johnson, whose views on EU membership at least seem consistent.StuartDickson said:
An offer you can’t refuse.Mexicanpete said:
The Russian Federation?ralphmalph said:
This point is so overlooked. After sitting on the fence for decades we are now in play. The EU want us 100% in their sphere of influence and the USA in theirs.Alanbrooke said:
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealingMexicanpete said:
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
What looks certain is that the fence sitting will not be allowed in the future so who is offering the best deal?
It pains me to say it but Brussels democracy with PR and several other checks and balances beats Whitehall so-called democracy with FPTP. With extra democratic features like a directly-elected EU executive and senate, what's not to like?
This EU democracy is better than UK democracy thing has been done.
Personaly I think those on the EU side are just not that intelligent.
An appointed Executive is a massive minus on the EU side.0 -
Good googling!!Philip_Thompson said:
5% of GDP approximately.SouthamObserver said:
Do you know what percentage of Northern Ireland's export market the Republic of Ireland comprises?Philip_Thompson said:
Bugger all.SouthamObserver said:
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
Just like nothing much happens due to there being a hard border for Income Tax, VAT, Corporation Tax, Abortion, Gay Marriage or whatever else you can think of.
About 1/3rd of what goes to Great Britain.
35% of all Northern Irish foreign exports go to the Republic of Ireland. That's a lot of jobs.
Northern Ireland is already heavily subsidised. No Deal Brexit means even more subsidies at a time when the UK's overall GDP will be adversely affected. So, there's one place the money we would have sent to Brussels will be spent.
0 -
Excellent results for the Lib Dems. So much for the Boris bounce. He's done nothing so far that suggests he's less of a buffoon than he was a week ago and those who follow politics more closely and aren't dyed in the wool Brexiteers are hardly likely to be impressed with the Addams Family he's lined up*
* I used that description of them before Peter Brookes cartoon. The connection was so obvious I'm not boasting just saying I'm not plagiarising0 -
-
I do not support crashing out but I do support the 20,000 police officers now we have addressed the financial crisis of 2008SouthamObserver said:
Spending billions to recruit the 20,000 policemen that Johnson and co voted to do away with is one hell of a thing, isn't it?Big_G_NorthWales said:
And in the meantime the opposition has gone on holiday giving Boris and his cabinet six weeks to firm up their GE manifesto and start recruiting the 20,000 police officers.OnlyLivingBoy said:Johnson is preparing for a populist election campaign in the Autumn.
Step 1 is to establish the EU as the enemy without. So he asks for something he knows they won't agree to (removing the backstop). When they refuse, he casts them as intransigent and prepares for no deal.
This sets up step 2, where he establishes parliament as the enemy within, by presenting them with no deal, which they will feel obliged to block in order to prevent chaos.
Most likely they "force" him into an election, where he can pose as defending the will of the people against both sets of enemies.
It's not very subtle but it may be effective.
Boris is going to be in the media virtually everyday almost unchallenged
I am very wary of Boris hard ball attitude to the EU. It is a high stakes gamble and no one can possibly tell who is going to cave in. The one thing is certain, on the 1st November the EU will either have to install a border or put in place alternative arrangements if we no deal
I cannot believe that even the EU would be so unwise to be seen putting a hard border in Ireland
Many on here are defending their entrenched views of how each side with react to this crisis but in truth no one on PB can say with any certainty how this will unfold.
I for one am keeping an open mind
If you are interested in what is likely to happen when we crash out, this is very good. Tony Connelly is probably the best-informed Irish journalist there is when it comes to Brexit:
https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2019/0330/1039471-brexit-no-deal-tony-connelly/
As I said no amount of varying political views will change my open mind to what may happen.
I just do not know0 -
5% of NI GDP puts it into perspective though.SouthamObserver said:
Good googling!!Philip_Thompson said:
5% of GDP approximately.SouthamObserver said:
Do you know what percentage of Northern Ireland's export market the Republic of Ireland comprises?Philip_Thompson said:
Bugger all.SouthamObserver said:
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
Just like nothing much happens due to there being a hard border for Income Tax, VAT, Corporation Tax, Abortion, Gay Marriage or whatever else you can think of.
About 1/3rd of what goes to Great Britain.
35% of all Northern Irish foreign exports go to the Republic of Ireland. That's a lot of jobs.
Northern Ireland is already heavily subsidised. No Deal Brexit means even more subsidies at a time when the UK's overall GDP will be adversely affected. So, there's one place the money we would have sent to Brussels will be spent.0 -
Interesting that again we get the complaints from the grassroots that Corbyn just isn't stepping up to the task of opposing.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I agreesurbiton19 said:https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/26/election-labour-johnson-tory-vote-jeremy-corbyn
Many of you here do not like him - but this is a good article.
How long can this drift continue? The contrast between this old (and clearly unhappy) man and Boris will only become stark.0 -
A50 created the no deal end game passed by 498 current mps who clearly did not know what they were doing.JBriskinindyref2 said:
If the HOC cannot stop no deal - then how come they keep banging on about how they're going to stop no deal. Must be some very well thumbed Erskine May's kicking about.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The HOC cannot stop no deal. Legislation has to be enabled and there lies the problemJBriskinindyref2 said:
Okay,Chris said:
The EU can refuse an extension, and the only way around that would be for us to revoke.JBriskinindyref2 said:Okay I've got a commons procedural question (annoyingly I've forgotten the name of the guy who wrote down our unwritten constitution)
If Commons votes against No Deal
What happens?
We have to ask for an extension? But then what if the EU refuses extension.
I think Halloween no-deal Brexit is still very likely
Has the commons not voted against No Deal yet? Did they get too frit or something.
They might get frit again.
Halloween No-deal Brexit Nailed On
Legislation is at the behest of HMG unless the mps can find a way round it which is why Grieve and others are desperately trying
It is UK and also EU default law1 -
So very little if we crash out and very little reason to have the backstop.SouthamObserver said:
Spending billions to recruit the 20,000 policemen that Johnson and co voted to do away with is one hell of a thing, isn't it?Big_G_NorthWales said:
And in the meantime the opposition has gone on holiday giving Boris and his cabinet six weeks to firm up their GE manifesto and start recruiting the 20,000 police officers.OnlyLivingBoy said:Johnson is preparing for a populist election campaign in the Autumn.
Step 1 is to establish the EU as the enemy without. So he asks for something he knows they won't agree to (removing the backstop). When they refuse, he casts them as intransigent and prepares for no deal.
This sets up step 2, where he establishes parliament as the enemy within, by presenting them with no deal, which they will feel obliged to block in order to prevent chaos.
Most likely they "force" him into an election, where he can pose as defending the will of the people against both sets of enemies.
It's not very subtle but it may be effective.
Boris is going to be in the media virtually everyday almost unchallenged
I am very wary of Boris hard ball attitude to the EU. It is a high stakes gamble and no one can possibly tell who is going to cave in. The one thing is certain, on the 1st November the EU will either have to install a border or put in place alternative arrangements if we no deal
I cannot believe that even the EU would be so unwise to be seen putting a hard border in Ireland
Many on here are defending their entrenched views of how each side with react to this crisis but in truth no one on PB can say with any certainty how this will unfold.
I for one am keeping an open mind
If you are interested in what is likely to happen when we crash out, this is very good. Tony Connelly is probably the best-informed Irish journalist there is when it comes to Brexit:
https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2019/0330/1039471-brexit-no-deal-tony-connelly/
If we crash out they intend to use solutions other than the backstop to try and keep an open border, but if we suggest that is what we should do then that's outrageous . . . and they don't want to "pollute" the Westminster debate?
F##k off, they're negotiating in bad faith already. Backstop is dead, lets see if they want a managed alternative or a crash out alternative.0 -
I hope it is GoveJBriskinindyref2 said:
All we want to know is - Who's the PMQ's stand-in.Philip_Thompson said:
Interesting if there is an order that Gove is listed ahead of Chancellor of the Exchequer.MikeL said:Full list of Cabinet per Parliament website.
Perhaps surprisingly Raab is only number 4 despite being First Sec of State. Gove number 2, Javid number 3.
https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/government-and-opposition1/her-majestys-government/
EDIT: Just realised Gove and Javid aren't Secretaries of State - they are both Chancellors!0 -
Those prize winning marrows don't grow themselves you know.rottenborough said:
Interesting that again we get the complaints from the grassroots that Corbyn just isn't stepping up to the task of opposing.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I agreesurbiton19 said:https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/26/election-labour-johnson-tory-vote-jeremy-corbyn
Many of you here do not like him - but this is a good article.
How long can this drift continue? The contrast between this old (and clearly unhappy) man and Boris will only become stark.0 -
Yes and his main point is that a border is not erected the day after no deal brexit. It will be an iterative process over a lengthy time period to ensure as little disruption as possible. But what is true is that immediately after no deal there will be no change at the Irish border.SouthamObserver said:
Spending billions to recruit the 20,000 policemen that Johnson and co voted to do away with is one hell of a thing, isn't it?Big_G_NorthWales said:
And in the meantime the opposition has gone on holiday giving Boris and his cabinet six weeks to firm up their GE manifesto and start recruiting the 20,000 police officers.OnlyLivingBoy said:Johnson is preparing for a populist election campaign in the Autumn.
Step 1 is to establish the EU as the enemy without. So he asks for something he knows they won't agree to (removing the backstop). When they refuse, he casts them as intransigent and prepares for no deal.
This sets up step 2, where he establishes parliament as the enemy within, by presenting them with no deal, which they will feel obliged to block in order to prevent chaos.
Most likely they "force" him into an election, where he can pose as defending the will of the people against both sets of enemies.
It's not very subtle but it may be effective.
Boris is going to be in the media virtually everyday almost unchallenged
I am very wary of Boris hard ball attitude to the EU. It is a high stakes gamble and no one can possibly tell who is going to cave in. The one thing is certain, on the 1st November the EU will either have to install a border or put in place alternative arrangements if we no deal
I cannot believe that even the EU would be so unwise to be seen putting a hard border in Ireland
Many on here are defending their entrenched views of how each side with react to this crisis but in truth no one on PB can say with any certainty how this will unfold.
I for one am keeping an open mind
If you are interested in what is likely to happen when we crash out, this is very good. Tony Connelly is probably the best-informed Irish journalist there is when it comes to Brexit:
https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2019/0330/1039471-brexit-no-deal-tony-connelly/0 -
This is however the point. If it looks as though we will crash out without a Deal how many Conservative MPs will put country before Party and join an opposition VONC to halt the No Deal?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I do not support crashing out but I do support the 20,000 police officers now we have addressed the financial crisis of 2008
As I said no amount of varying political views will change my open mind to what may happen.
I just do not know0 -
Interesting that you phrased it as 35% of "foreign exports". The reality is that NI's exports to Great Britain is three times that, or in other words NI's exports to Great Britain is essentially 100% of foreign exports.SouthamObserver said:
Good googling!!Philip_Thompson said:
5% of GDP approximately.SouthamObserver said:
Do you know what percentage of Northern Ireland's export market the Republic of Ireland comprises?Philip_Thompson said:
Bugger all.SouthamObserver said:
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
Just like nothing much happens due to there being a hard border for Income Tax, VAT, Corporation Tax, Abortion, Gay Marriage or whatever else you can think of.
About 1/3rd of what goes to Great Britain.
35% of all Northern Irish foreign exports go to the Republic of Ireland. That's a lot of jobs.
Northern Ireland is already heavily subsidised. No Deal Brexit means even more subsidies at a time when the UK's overall GDP will be adversely affected. So, there's one place the money we would have sent to Brussels will be spent.
So if its to be a No Deal then an open border on the Irish Sea with Great Britain makes more sense than an open border with the Republic who created this mess by insisting on the backstop. As the DUP know.0 -
Just imagine if Betfair had a market out on the UK temperature record !
It'd be carnage right now lol0 -
Isn't Raab de facto Deputy PM?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I hope it is GoveJBriskinindyref2 said:
All we want to know is - Who's the PMQ's stand-in.Philip_Thompson said:
Interesting if there is an order that Gove is listed ahead of Chancellor of the Exchequer.MikeL said:Full list of Cabinet per Parliament website.
Perhaps surprisingly Raab is only number 4 despite being First Sec of State. Gove number 2, Javid number 3.
https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/government-and-opposition1/her-majestys-government/
EDIT: Just realised Gove and Javid aren't Secretaries of State - they are both Chancellors!
Can't believe I just said that.0 -
But how does it stop the no deal.stodge said:
This is however the point. If it looks as though we will crash out without a Deal how many Conservative MPs will put country before Party and join an opposition VONC to halt the No Deal?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I do not support crashing out but I do support the 20,000 police officers now we have addressed the financial crisis of 2008
As I said no amount of varying political views will change my open mind to what may happen.
I just do not know
You have to pass legislation and it is more than possible Boris will prempt it by calling a GE resulting in several conservative mps being deselected for it including Grieve0 -
Inching towards a manifesto campaigning for Remain.
"Labour’s manifesto for an election is being drafted already and is likely to promise another referendum on EU membership with the party campaigning for remain,"
"Until now, Labour has been wary of backing remain because of the risk of alienating pro-Brexit voters in its traditional heartlands in northern and central England. But recent party research suggest the losses would be far fewer than previously feared, according to one person involved in the process."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-26/vote-corbyn-stop-brexit-how-labour-plans-to-take-on-johnson?srnd=premium-europe0 -
Mr. NorthWales, aye.
MPs are collective dopey sods.
They voted to endorse the decision to leave the EU.
They voted thrice to reject May's deal.
Now they're upset we're set to leave with no deal, when they've voted at every stage for that very outcome.0 -
Yep, but it also explains why a hard border will become necessary. Fir the UK economy as a whole, of course, the Irish border is inconsequential. At the frontier crossings that are actually important to the UK economy - the ones at sea and air borders - the hard border will kick in immediately.ralphmalph said:
Yes and his main point is that a border is not erected the day after no deal brexit. It will be an iterative process over a lengthy time period to ensure as little disruption as possible. But what is true is that immediately after no deal there will be no change at the Irish border.SouthamObserver said:
Spending billions to recruit the 20,000 policemen that Johnson and co voted to do away with is one hell of a thing, isn't it?Big_G_NorthWales said:
And in the meantime the opposition has gone on holiday giving Boris and his cabinet six weeks to firm up their GE manifesto and start recruiting the 20,000 police officers.OnlyLivingBoy said:Johnson is preparing for a populist election campaign in the Autumn.
Step 1 is to establish the EU as the enemy without. So he asks for something he knows they won't agree to (removing the backstop). When they refuse, he casts them as intransigent and prepares for no deal.
This sets up step 2, where he establishes parliament as the enemy within, by presenting them with no deal, which they will feel obliged to block in order to prevent chaos.
Most likely they "force" him into an election, where he can pose as defending the will of the people against both sets of enemies.
It's not very subtle but it may be effective.
Boris is going to be in the media virtually everyday almost unchallenged
I am very wary of Boris hard ball attitude to the EU. It is a high stakes gamble and no one can possibly tell who is going to cave in. The one thing is certain, on the 1st November the EU will either have to install a border or put in place alternative arrangements if we no deal
I cannot believe that even the EU would be so unwise to be seen putting a hard border in Ireland
Many on here are defending their entrenched views of how each side with react to this crisis but in truth no one on PB can say with any certainty how this will unfold.
I for one am keeping an open mind
If you are interested in what is likely to happen when we crash out, this is very good. Tony Connelly is probably the best-informed Irish journalist there is when it comes to Brexit:
https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2019/0330/1039471-brexit-no-deal-tony-connelly/
0 -
It will be the Irish who put up the border. At Brussels' behest.Big_G_NorthWales said:
. . .
I cannot believe that even the EU would be so unwise to be seen putting a hard border in Ireland
. . .
0 -
You forgot the last sentence, MorrisMorris_Dancer said:Mr. NorthWales, aye.
MPs are collective dopey sods.
They voted to endorse the decision to leave the EU.
They voted thrice to reject May's deal.
Now they're upset we're set to leave with no deal, when they've voted at every stage for that very outcome.
Halloween No-Deal Brexit Nailed On0 -
That makes absolutely no sense at all. The Republic of Ireland is a foreign country. It is not the UK. Of course Northern Irish exports to it are foreign exports.Philip_Thompson said:
Interesting that you phrased it as 35% of "foreign exports". The reality is that NI's exports to Great Britain is three times that, or in other words NI's exports to Great Britain is essentially 100% of foreign exports.SouthamObserver said:
Good googling!!Philip_Thompson said:
5% of GDP approximately.SouthamObserver said:
Do you know what percentage of Northern Ireland's export market the Republic of Ireland comprises?Philip_Thompson said:
Bugger all.SouthamObserver said:
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
Just like nothing much happens due to there being a hard border for Income Tax, VAT, Corporation Tax, Abortion, Gay Marriage or whatever else you can think of.
About 1/3rd of what goes to Great Britain.
35% of all Northern Irish foreign exports go to the Republic of Ireland. That's a lot of jobs.
Northern Ireland is already heavily subsidised. No Deal Brexit means even more subsidies at a time when the UK's overall GDP will be adversely affected. So, there's one place the money we would have sent to Brussels will be spent.
So if its to be a No Deal then an open border on the Irish Sea with Great Britain makes more sense than an open border with the Republic who created this mess by insisting on the backstop. As the DUP know.
If it is to be No Deal, the UK will find itself surrounded by a hard border and with no possibility of doing a free trade deal with either of its two biggest export markets.
0 -
Gin O Clock everyone
Don't forget - if you're a Yoon-
#Carling4Tennents4indyref20 -
-
Why did it take so long to find this out ? It is people like Lavery and Flint who caused this problem. We should be REMAIN in capital letters.rottenborough said:Inching towards a manifesto campaigning for Remain.
"Labour’s manifesto for an election is being drafted already and is likely to promise another referendum on EU membership with the party campaigning for remain,"
"Until now, Labour has been wary of backing remain because of the risk of alienating pro-Brexit voters in its traditional heartlands in northern and central England. But recent party research suggest the losses would be far fewer than previously feared, according to one person involved in the process."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-26/vote-corbyn-stop-brexit-how-labour-plans-to-take-on-johnson?srnd=premium-europe0 -
-
Blocking Indyref2StuartDickson said:
Just as an armchair exercise, what would be on PM Swinson’s agenda with such a stunning landslide behind her, and five years of power ahead of her?tpfkar said:Baxtering those percentages gives:
Lib Dem 508
Lab 47
SNP 37
Con 27
Green 1
NI 18
We can but dream....0 -
ha ha - Esquire - that's a blast from the pastScott_P said:0 -
-
Needs clarifying - not sureRobD said:
Isn't Raab de facto Deputy PM?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I hope it is GoveJBriskinindyref2 said:
All we want to know is - Who's the PMQ's stand-in.Philip_Thompson said:
Interesting if there is an order that Gove is listed ahead of Chancellor of the Exchequer.MikeL said:Full list of Cabinet per Parliament website.
Perhaps surprisingly Raab is only number 4 despite being First Sec of State. Gove number 2, Javid number 3.
https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/government-and-opposition1/her-majestys-government/
EDIT: Just realised Gove and Javid aren't Secretaries of State - they are both Chancellors!
Can't believe I just said that.0 -
That is, of course, the same share of GDP as exports from the UK to the Commonwealth were in 1973.RobD said:
5% of NI GDP puts it into perspective though.SouthamObserver said:
Good googling!!Philip_Thompson said:
5% of GDP approximately.SouthamObserver said:
Do you know what percentage of Northern Ireland's export market the Republic of Ireland comprises?Philip_Thompson said:
Bugger all.SouthamObserver said:
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
Just like nothing much happens due to there being a hard border for Income Tax, VAT, Corporation Tax, Abortion, Gay Marriage or whatever else you can think of.
About 1/3rd of what goes to Great Britain.
35% of all Northern Irish foreign exports go to the Republic of Ireland. That's a lot of jobs.
Northern Ireland is already heavily subsidised. No Deal Brexit means even more subsidies at a time when the UK's overall GDP will be adversely affected. So, there's one place the money we would have sent to Brussels will be spent.
Are exports just 15% of Northern Ireland GDP? For the UK as a whole, they're 26% (IIRC). It's possible, as the public sector is quite big in Northern Ireland, but it seems a little on the low side.0 -
actually im still laughing at that arse VaradkarTOPPING said:
Alan, Alan now now.Alanbrooke said:
yesSouthamObserver said:
Really?Alanbrooke said:
nothing much franklySouthamObserver said:
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-48934706
the whole thing is simply a crass negotiating ploy by people who should know better
We could strike up some kind of a bet but it would a) be and remain hypothetical; and b) be in very bad taste.
Not that gallows humour has ever been an unknown quantity in the six counties.
I was speaking with daughters Irish boyfriend who wanted to have a rant about the btitish losing the plot so I asked him why Leo had joined the French Commonealth rather then the britsih one, he didnt know what to say
So its no longer Leo but Frank O'Phoney and a packet of Gaulloises.0 -
I have literally this morning read a section in a copy editing book by the head of copy editing at Random House, saying you must never have two spaces after a full stop.Scott_P said:
It is desperately old fashioned.0 -
Appears that may not be the case - as per my previous post.RobD said:
Isn't Raab de facto Deputy PM?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I hope it is GoveJBriskinindyref2 said:
All we want to know is - Who's the PMQ's stand-in.Philip_Thompson said:
Interesting if there is an order that Gove is listed ahead of Chancellor of the Exchequer.MikeL said:Full list of Cabinet per Parliament website.
Perhaps surprisingly Raab is only number 4 despite being First Sec of State. Gove number 2, Javid number 3.
https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/government-and-opposition1/her-majestys-government/
EDIT: Just realised Gove and Javid aren't Secretaries of State - they are both Chancellors!
Can't believe I just said that.
Look at photo per link below - who is opposite Boris - Gove or Raab?
It's not clear - picture is at an angle so need to look very carefully - but whoever is opposite Boris is number 2.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2019/jul/25/two-thirds-of-boris-johnsons-cabinet-went-to-private-schools#img-10 -
Finally, progress.Scott_P said:
1 -
Old ones are the best ones, your retweets are worse than Scottp and that takes some doing.HYUFD said:
64% of Scottish Leave voters still oppose Scottish independence even if 51% of Scottish Remain voters now back it, putting No to Scottish independence still narrowly ahead despite BrexitTheuniondivvie said:Through the indifference of English Tories and the repudiation of Remainer centrist dads, that's how the Union will end.
https://twitter.com/PhantomPower14/status/1154722746217226240
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2019/07/could-brexit-yet-undermine-the-future-of-the-british-state/0 -
real wages are risingSouthamObserver said:
I doubt that will happen. There will be jobs as gaps currently taken by EU workers will have to be filled. The issue is much more about how much they will pay - and how much it will cost the UK government. Social care is an obvious example.Alanbrooke said:
you forgot about the 5 million unemployedSouthamObserver said:
We will not have billions to spend. £33 billion (we've already handed over some of the money) is a rounding error compared to the higher borrowing costs, reduced tax take and lower inward investment No Deal will lead to. The money that would have been sent to Brussels will be spent on plugging gaps in current spending commitments.Philip_Thompson said:
The country won't implode. We can just get on with erecting a hard Irish border if necessary since that's what the Irish have chosen to have due to not compromising, we will have billions to spend on whatever we want and we will be free to control our own destiny. Nothing scary in any of that.Mexicanpete said:
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
We would face some disruption but the worst of it will be up front, once time goes on we'll get used to our lives in our new paradigm.
nice to see one forecast come true0 -
I'd take the headbangers on and paint them as just that, headbangers. If anyone is in a position to do that then Boris is.Scott_P said:
I don't think it would be that difficult to persuade people of the clear blue sea between Brexiteers who believe in trade, sovereignty and a liberal immigration system and flag-waving purists like Farage and Bridgen who just want to stick two fingers up at foreigners.
It's going to come to that anyway.
0 -
I do like him - and yes that is one of his very best.surbiton19 said:https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/26/election-labour-johnson-tory-vote-jeremy-corbyn
Many of you here do not like him - but this is a good article.
Troubling too. If OJ is worried, I am worried.0 -
Oh, for ****'s sake !rottenborough said:
I have literally this morning read a section in a copy editing book by the head of copy editing at Random House, saying you must never have two spaces after a full stop.Scott_P said:
It is desperately old fashioned.0 -
The point is, that 5% of GDP is lost along with a further percentage of GDP that is dependent on those Irish exports. And if those exporters go out of business, any other economic activity they do will also be lost. UK exports won't make up for any of it.Philip_Thompson said:
5% of GDP approximately.
About 1/3rd of what goes to Great Britain.
The key takeaway is while Ireland is screwed by No Deal, Northern Ireland, which still is part of the UK, is screwed worse by factors. I realise that Brexiteers don't care tuppence for the fate of their supposed fellow country people0 -
edit0
-
The use of imperial measurements!Scott_P said:
Now, I get that for longer distances (i.e. miles). But is he really going to talk about three feet, rather than a meter? Or to talk in inches rather than centimeters? And for millimeters, how are people supposed to measure things - fractions of inches?
And, for a bottle of wine - what is the proper imperial measurement for that?
And, and, if we're going imperial, are we going to US imperial measurements or our own?
We use a funny, and very British mix, of imperial and metric. I'm comfortable ordering a pint of beer or milk. But I couldn't tell you how much a quart was. Or have any sensible way of estimating a eighth of an inch. And as far as temperatures go, while I know what 70 degrees fareheit feels like, I have no idea if 40 degrees is above or below freezing.
0 -
Because Seamus, Murphy and Murray want a Tory No Deal and all its chaos, as a quick route to a Labour socialist government.surbiton19 said:
Why did it take so long to find this out ? It is people like Lavery and Flint who caused this problem. We should be REMAIN in capital letters.rottenborough said:Inching towards a manifesto campaigning for Remain.
"Labour’s manifesto for an election is being drafted already and is likely to promise another referendum on EU membership with the party campaigning for remain,"
"Until now, Labour has been wary of backing remain because of the risk of alienating pro-Brexit voters in its traditional heartlands in northern and central England. But recent party research suggest the losses would be far fewer than previously feared, according to one person involved in the process."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-26/vote-corbyn-stop-brexit-how-labour-plans-to-take-on-johnson?srnd=premium-europe0 -
Very low when compared with the other regions:rcs1000 said:
That is, of course, the same share of GDP as exports from the UK to the Commonwealth were in 1973.RobD said:
5% of NI GDP puts it into perspective though.SouthamObserver said:
Good googling!!Philip_Thompson said:
5% of GDP approximately.SouthamObserver said:
Do you know what percentage of Northern Ireland's export market the Republic of Ireland comprises?Philip_Thompson said:
Bugger all.SouthamObserver said:
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
Just like nothing much happens due to there being a hard border for Income Tax, VAT, Corporation Tax, Abortion, Gay Marriage or whatever else you can think of.
About 1/3rd of what goes to Great Britain.
35% of all Northern Irish foreign exports go to the Republic of Ireland. That's a lot of jobs.
Northern Ireland is already heavily subsidised. No Deal Brexit means even more subsidies at a time when the UK's overall GDP will be adversely affected. So, there's one place the money we would have sent to Brussels will be spent.
Are exports just 15% of Northern Ireland GDP? For the UK as a whole, they're 26% (IIRC). It's possible, as the public sector is quite big in Northern Ireland, but it seems a little on the low side.
https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/RTS/RTS Releases/RTS_Q4_2015.pdf0 -
If we were independent we might have a real Scottish Conservative party, I could even vote for them in that case as long as they were not brownshirts like the current lot.hamiltonace said:williamglenn said:
The break up of the UK is the most plausible way that England could end up in the Eurozone. I don't see the UK rejoining as the UK if we leave.TheScreamingEagles said:
I don’t want the break up of the Union.Sean_F said:
I think there's quite a bit wishful thinking at work. A lot of people seem to think that the breakup of the UK would be a fitting punishment for having voted to leave the EU.HYUFD said:
64% of Scottish Leave voters still oppose Scottish independence even if 51% of Scottish Remain voters now back it, putting No to Scottish independence still narrowly ahead despite BrexitTheuniondivvie said:Through the indifference of English Tories and the repudiation of Remainer centrist dads, that's how the Union will end.
https://twitter.com/PhantomPower14/status/1154722746217226240
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2019/07/could-brexit-yet-undermine-the-future-of-the-british-state/
What I want is Brexit is seen as such an error that UK ends up rejoining the EU replete with membership of the Euro PDQ.
The reaction of Leavers would be awesome.
The break up of the union in the case of no deal Brexit is seen by a group of Scots including myself as making the best of a bad situation. I still intend to vote Tory for MSPs and council elections but need the certainty for my business. It is the movement of key voters such as businessmen and farmers which could tip the balance in the end. The Scottish economy cant afford to take a further hit based on long term notions of taking back control.0 -
it really isnt that many jobs, ni doesnt export that much. inter irish trade is worth less than Nissan SunderlandSouthamObserver said:
Good googling!!Philip_Thompson said:
5% of GDP approximately.SouthamObserver said:
Do you know what percentage of Northern Ireland's export market the Republic of Ireland comprises?Philip_Thompson said:
Bugger all.SouthamObserver said:
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
Just like nothing much happens due to there being a hard border for Income Tax, VAT, Corporation Tax, Abortion, Gay Marriage or whatever else you can think of.
About 1/3rd of what goes to Great Britain.
35% of all Northern Irish foreign exports go to the Republic of Ireland. That's a lot of jobs.
Northern Ireland is already heavily subsidised. No Deal Brexit means even more subsidies at a time when the UK's overall GDP will be adversely affected. So, there's one place the money we would have sent to Brussels will be spent.0 -
I initially thought this was satire. Can we please end this nightmare already?RobD said:0 -
I agreeFenster said:
I'd take the headbangers on and paint them as just that, headbangers. If anyone is in a position to do that then Boris is.Scott_P said:
I don't think it would be that difficult to persuade people of the clear blue sea between Brexiteers who believe in trade, sovereignty and a liberal immigration system and flag-waving purists like Farage and Bridgen who just want to stick two fingers up at foreigners.
It's going to come to that anyway.0 -
-
You are predicting zero cross-border trade? OK.FF43 said:
The point is, that 5% of GDP is lost along with a further percentage of GDP that is dependent on those Irish exports. And if those exporters go out of business, any other economic activity they do will also be lost. UK exports won't make up for any of it.Philip_Thompson said:
5% of GDP approximately.SouthamObserver said:
Do you know what percentage of Northern Ireland's export market the Republic of Ireland comprises?Philip_Thompson said:
Bugger all.SouthamObserver said:
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Mexicanpete said:
You reckon?Philip_Thompson said:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.AlastairMeeks said:Given that it is Britain that wants new talks, I don't see how this works:
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
Just like nothing much happens due to there being a hard border for Income Tax, VAT, Corporation Tax, Abortion, Gay Marriage or whatever else you can think of.
About 1/3rd of what goes to Great Britain.0 -
To be honest, I'm a bit surprised he's allowing "Ms".Scott_P said:0
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