64% of Scottish Leave voters still oppose Scottish independence even if 51% of Scottish Remain voters now back it, putting No to Scottish independence still narrowly ahead despite Brexit
I think there's quite a bit wishful thinking at work. A lot of people seem to think that the breakup of the UK would be a fitting punishment for having voted to leave the EU.
I don’t want the break up of the Union.
What I want is Brexit is seen as such an error that UK ends up rejoining the EU replete with membership of the Euro PDQ.
The reaction of Leavers would be awesome.
The break up of the UK is the most plausible way that England could end up in the Eurozone. I don't see the UK rejoining as the UK if we leave.
The break up of the union in the case of no deal Brexit is seen by a group of Scots including myself as making the best of a bad situation. I still intend to vote Tory for MSPs and council elections but need the certainty for my business. It is the movement of key voters such as businessmen and farmers which could tip the balance in the end. The Scottish economy cant afford to take a further hit based on long term notions of taking back control.
If we were independent we might have a real Scottish Conservative party, I could even vote for them in that case as long as they were not brownshirts like the current lot.
The point is, that 5% of GDP is lost along with a further percentage of GDP that is dependent on those Irish exports. And if those exporters go out of business, any other economic activity they do will also be lost. UK exports won't make up for any of it.
The key takeaway is while Ireland is screwed by No Deal, Northern Ireland, which still is part of the UK, is screwed worse by factors. I realise that Brexiteers don't care tuppence for the fate of their supposed fellow country people
of course it will
more policemen and customs or cant you work that out ?
Ian Murray spelt out very well where Corbyn went wrong yesterday. He said he should have had ready a forensic analysis of Johnson's behaviour over the last two years. He's completely right. Where's Robin Cook when you need him? Corbyn won't go so he has to be bypassed. Time for disaffected Labour MPs to join the Lib Dems
64% of Scottish Leave voters still oppose Scottish independence even if 51% of Scottish Remain voters now back it, putting No to Scottish independence still narrowly ahead despite Brexit
I think there's quite a bit wishful thinking at work. A lot of people seem to think that the breakup of the UK would be a fitting punishment for having voted to leave the EU.
I don’t want the break up of the Union.
What I want is Brexit is seen as such an error that UK ends up rejoining the EU replete with membership of the Euro PDQ.
The reaction of Leavers would be awesome.
The break up of the UK is the most plausible way that England could end up in the Eurozone. I don't see the UK rejoining as the UK if we leave.
The break up of the union in the case of no deal Brexit is seen by a group of Scots including myself as making the best of a bad situation. I still intend to vote Tory for MSPs and council elections but need the certainty for my business. It is the movement of key voters such as businessmen and farmers which could tip the balance in the end. The Scottish economy cant afford to take a further hit based on long term notions of taking back control.
If we were independent we might have a real Scottish Conservative party, I could even vote for them in that case as long as they were not brownshirts like the current lot.
Malc is a Scottish Tory?
Malc has always said that. Once Scotland is independent, his natural home is the Conservative Party.
The point is, that 5% of GDP is lost along with a further percentage of GDP that is dependent on those Irish exports. And if those exporters go out of business, any other economic activity they do will also be lost. UK exports won't make up for any of it.
The key takeaway is while Ireland is screwed by No Deal, Northern Ireland, which still is part of the UK, is screwed worse by factors. I realise that Brexiteers don't care tuppence for the fate of their supposed fellow country people
of course it will
more policemen and customs or cant you work that out ?
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?
Bugger all.
Just like nothing much happens due to there being a hard border for Income Tax, VAT, Corporation Tax, Abortion, Gay Marriage or whatever else you can think of.
Do you know what percentage of Northern Ireland's export market the Republic of Ireland comprises?
5% of GDP approximately.
About 1/3rd of what goes to Great Britain.
Good googling!!
35% of all Northern Irish foreign exports go to the Republic of Ireland. That's a lot of jobs.
Northern Ireland is already heavily subsidised. No Deal Brexit means even more subsidies at a time when the UK's overall GDP will be adversely affected. So, there's one place the money we would have sent to Brussels will be spent.
5% of NI GDP puts it into perspective though.
That is, of course, the same share of GDP as exports from the UK to the Commonwealth were in 1973.
Are exports just 15% of Northern Ireland GDP? For the UK as a whole, they're 26% (IIRC). It's possible, as the public sector is quite big in Northern Ireland, but it seems a little on the low side.
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?
Bugger all.
Just like nothing much happens due to there being a hard border for Income Tax, VAT, Corporation Tax, Abortion, Gay Marriage or whatever else you can think of.
Do you know what percentage of Northern Ireland's export market the Republic of Ireland comprises?
5% of GDP approximately.
About 1/3rd of what goes to Great Britain.
Good googling!!
35% of all Northern Irish foreign exports go to the Republic of Ireland. That's a lot of jobs.
Northern Ireland is already heavily subsidised. No Deal Brexit means even more subsidies at a time when the UK's overall GDP will be adversely affected. So, there's one place the money we would have sent to Brussels will be spent.
5% of NI GDP puts it into perspective though.
That is, of course, the same share of GDP as exports from the UK to the Commonwealth were in 1973.
Are exports just 15% of Northern Ireland GDP? For the UK as a whole, they're 26% (IIRC). It's possible, as the public sector is quite big in Northern Ireland, but it seems a little on the low side.
The point is, that 5% of GDP is lost along with a further percentage of GDP that is dependent on those Irish exports. And if those exporters go out of business, any other economic activity they do will also be lost. UK exports won't make up for any of it.
The key takeaway is while Ireland is screwed by No Deal, Northern Ireland, which still is part of the UK, is screwed worse by factors. I realise that Brexiteers don't care tuppence for the fate of their supposed fellow country people
Well it would not all be lost. All of those RoI residents driving to NI to do the shopping would not stop, it would just carry on as normal or of the pound fell as predicted then it would increase.
80% of the Cheddar Cheese eaten in the UK is from RoI factories made with a percentage of NI milk. NI Cheddar Cheese factories would increase production if they had capacity or then make investments.
There would be a hit in the case of no deal and tariffs implemented immediately but as we have seen in an article linked below these will not be implemented for some time.
The biggest issue is if day one customs and tarifffs are implemented between RoI ports and ports in Scot, Wales and Eng then lots of HGV's carrying beef, cheese, etc would re route via NI ports which do not have the capacity.
What has liberalism got to do with a few customs checks in warehouses?
I think he's means anyone who isn't a diehard unionist would see the Union isn't doing Northern Ireland any good, particularly in a No Deal Brexit scenario.
64% of Scottish Leave voters still oppose Scottish independence even if 51% of Scottish Remain voters now back it, putting No to Scottish independence still narrowly ahead despite Brexit
I think there's quite a bit wishful thinking at work. A lot of people seem to think that the breakup of the UK would be a fitting punishment for having voted to leave the EU.
I don’t want the break up of the Union.
What I want is Brexit is seen as such an error that UK ends up rejoining the EU replete with membership of the Euro PDQ.
The reaction of Leavers would be awesome.
The break up of the UK is the most plausible way that England could end up in the Eurozone. I don't see the UK rejoining as the UK if we leave.
The break up of the union in the case of no deal Brexit is seen by a group of Scots including myself as making the best of a bad situation. I still intend to vote Tory for MSPs and council elections but need the certainty for my business. It is the movement of key voters such as businessmen and farmers which could tip the balance in the end. The Scottish economy cant afford to take a further hit based on long term notions of taking back control.
If we were independent we might have a real Scottish Conservative party, I could even vote for them in that case as long as they were not brownshirts like the current lot.
Malc is a Scottish Tory?
Malc has always said that. Once Scotland is independent, his natural home is the Conservative Party.
I remember the days when he was wavering about being a Greenie.
In gilligans case he resigned and was very critical of them. Andrew Gilligan, a journalist who resigned from Press TV after he said that "taking the Iranian shilling was inconsistent with my opposition to Islamism".
I think in the early days there were a few surprising people on who later realised it was a mistake eg nick ferrari.
Jezza, george galloway and red ken in the other hand...still big fans to his day.
Gilligan's appointment is clearly jobs for the boys after his extremely helpful take down of red ken and his dodgy mates in the evening standard.
What has liberalism got to do with a few customs checks in warehouses?
even funnier how is RoI going to pay for it - An Beal Bocht
A united Ireland would energise the Irish diaspora, which would never allow the unification process to fail on economic grounds. Neither would the EU.
deluded
I have an Irish Passport and wouldnt wish to fork out. The irish diaspora which was much bigger in the past let the country wallow in shit for the best part of ItS existence.
Inching towards a manifesto campaigning for Remain.
"Labour’s manifesto for an election is being drafted already and is likely to promise another referendum on EU membership with the party campaigning for remain,"
"Until now, Labour has been wary of backing remain because of the risk of alienating pro-Brexit voters in its traditional heartlands in northern and central England. But recent party research suggest the losses would be far fewer than previously feared, according to one person involved in the process."
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealing
This point is so overlooked. After sitting on the fence for decades we are now in play. The EU want us 100% in their sphere of influence and the USA in theirs.
What looks certain is that the fence sitting will not be allowed in the future so who is offering the best deal?
The Russian Federation?
An offer you can’t refuse.
"Have you ever considered joining Warsaw Pact?" - Comrade Dubienkin (Richard Griffiths) to the British Foreign Secretary (Geoffrey Palmer), Whoops Apocalypse.
What has liberalism got to do with a few customs checks in warehouses?
even funnier how is RoI going to pay for it - An Beal Bocht
A united Ireland would energise the Irish diaspora, which would never allow the unification process to fail on economic grounds. Neither would the EU.
deluded
I have an Irish Passport and wouldnt wish to fork out. The irish diaspora which was much bigger in the past let the country wallow in shit for the best part of ItS existence.
Paddywahackery isnt a real economy.
You are magnificently, defiantly deluded. Although I do not believe that you actually mean what you are saying.
What has liberalism got to do with a few customs checks in warehouses?
even funnier how is RoI going to pay for it - An Beal Bocht
A united Ireland would energise the Irish diaspora, which would never allow the unification process to fail on economic grounds. Neither would the EU.
deluded
I have an Irish Passport and wouldnt wish to fork out. The irish diaspora which was much bigger in the past let the country wallow in shit for the best part of ItS existence.
Paddywahackery isnt a real economy.
You are magnificently, defiantly deluded. Although I do not believe that you actually mean what you are saying.
My PhD supervisor was an absolute stickler when it came to grammar / acceptable words and phrases eg fillers such as furthermore and in addition were verboten.
The first draft of my the paper i wrote, came back from his edit with more "corrected" sentences than untouched.
No Brexit it is then, unless he wins the autumn GE with a majority.
Where is the evidence that there is any ‘full planning/preparedness for No deal”? There are a whole host of bills that need passingto enable even basic preparedness, and the Govt has said it will bring no new legislation forward before October.
What has liberalism got to do with a few customs checks in warehouses?
even funnier how is RoI going to pay for it - An Beal Bocht
A united Ireland would energise the Irish diaspora, which would never allow the unification process to fail on economic grounds. Neither would the EU.
deluded
I have an Irish Passport and wouldnt wish to fork out. The irish diaspora which was much bigger in the past let the country wallow in shit for the best part of ItS existence.
Paddywahackery isnt a real economy.
You are magnificently, defiantly deluded. Although I do not believe that you actually mean what you are saying.
I have my own banned list for juniors (I don't compile it, but there is a list that assistants have compiled to save themselves time). There is some overlap with Jacob Rees-Mogg's.
The point is, that 5% of GDP is lost along with a further percentage of GDP that is dependent on those Irish exports. And if those exporters go out of business, any other economic activity they do will also be lost. UK exports won't make up for any of it.
The key takeaway is while Ireland is screwed by No Deal, Northern Ireland, which still is part of the UK, is screwed worse by factors. I realise that Brexiteers don't care tuppence for the fate of their supposed fellow country people
Well it would not all be lost. All of those RoI residents driving to NI to do the shopping would not stop, it would just carry on as normal or of the pound fell as predicted then it would increase.
80% of the Cheddar Cheese eaten in the UK is from RoI factories made with a percentage of NI milk. NI Cheddar Cheese factories would increase production if they had capacity or then make investments.
There would be a hit in the case of no deal and tariffs implemented immediately but as we have seen in an article linked below these will not be implemented for some time.
The biggest issue is if day one customs and tarifffs are implemented between RoI ports and ports in Scot, Wales and Eng then lots of HGV's carrying beef, cheese, etc would re route via NI ports which do not have the capacity.
On the shopping, no-one will buy anything much in Northern Ireland shops, according to current guidance. Shopping in the Republic will effectively be free of VAT for NI residents.
I accept your point that not all Ireland exports will stop even with No Deal. Against that the potentially affected GDP is greater than 5% once you take into account dependent economic activity
What has liberalism got to do with a few customs checks in warehouses?
even funnier how is RoI going to pay for it - An Beal Bocht
A united Ireland would energise the Irish diaspora, which would never allow the unification process to fail on economic grounds. Neither would the EU.
deluded
I have an Irish Passport and wouldnt wish to fork out. The irish diaspora which was much bigger in the past let the country wallow in shit for the best part of ItS existence.
Paddywahackery isnt a real economy.
You are magnificently, defiantly deluded. Although I do not believe that you actually mean what you are saying.
investment on the back of tax breaks isnt the same as investment for politcal ends. Irleand attracts US investment because of its low taxes - Ive never met a paddy called Zuckerberg or Bezos. Remove the tax breaks the EU wishes to do and RoI has a problem which no amount of flag waving will solve,
If you read the Irish Post or some of the other expat papers the main concern is the decline of the Irish community and its influence, This is the flip side of the Tiger economy. The last great wave of irish emigration was the 1980s irish communities and their influence are declining not just in real numbers but also as other immigrant communities are seen as more important by politicians.
I have my own banned list for juniors (I don't compile it, but there is a list that assistants have compiled to save themselves time). There is some overlap with Jacob Rees-Mogg's.
My list is much longer. Much.
I'm a huge fan of the Oxford comma.
I mock people who do not use it.
Misuse/lack of apostrophes triggers me like Hawaiian pizza.
I do not support crashing out but I do support the 20,000 police officers now we have addressed the financial crisis of 2008
As I said no amount of varying political views will change my open mind to what may happen.
I just do not know
This is however the point. If it looks as though we will crash out without a Deal how many Conservative MPs will put country before Party and join an opposition VONC to halt the No Deal?
But how does it stop the no deal.
You have to pass legislation and it is more than possible Boris will prempt it by calling a GE resulting in several conservative mps being deselected for it including Grieve
I've come back to this. It's either 2/3 of all MPs (as in 2017) to call an election or we go into the other route.
Let's say 30-40 Conservative MPs rebel and a VONC passes. In the 14 day period that follows, we'd have other options:
1) The 14 day clock runs out and an election is called. 2) Boris tries a Vote of Confidence and hopes it passes. 3) A different Government is formed which can command the confidence of the House. If that new Government succeeds, Boris is out and we have a new PM.
What has liberalism got to do with a few customs checks in warehouses?
even funnier how is RoI going to pay for it - An Beal Bocht
A united Ireland would energise the Irish diaspora, which would never allow the unification process to fail on economic grounds. Neither would the EU.
deluded
I have an Irish Passport and wouldnt wish to fork out. The irish diaspora which was much bigger in the past let the country wallow in shit for the best part of ItS existence.
Paddywahackery isnt a real economy.
You are magnificently, defiantly deluded. Although I do not believe that you actually mean what you are saying.
I do not support crashing out but I do support the 20,000 police officers now we have addressed the financial crisis of 2008
As I said no amount of varying political views will change my open mind to what may happen.
I just do not know
This is however the point. If it looks as though we will crash out without a Deal how many Conservative MPs will put country before Party and join an opposition VONC to halt the No Deal?
But how does it stop the no deal.
You have to pass legislation and it is more than possible Boris will prempt it by calling a GE resulting in several conservative mps being deselected for it including Grieve
I've come back to this. It's either 2/3 of all MPs (as in 2017) to call an election or we go into the other route.
Let's say 30-40 Conservative MPs rebel and a VONC passes. In the 14 day period that follows, we'd have other options:
1) The 14 day clock runs out and an election is called. 2) Boris tries a Vote of Confidence and hopes it passes. 3) A different Government is formed which can command the confidence of the House. If that new Government succeeds, Boris is out and we have a new PM.
In theory but in my opinion no 3 is highly unlikely
I have my own banned list for juniors (I don't compile it, but there is a list that assistants have compiled to save themselves time). There is some overlap with Jacob Rees-Mogg's.
My list is much longer. Much.
I'm a huge fan of the Oxford comma.
I mock people who do not use it.
Misuse/lack of apostrophes triggers me like Hawaiian pizza.
If I'm correct the Oxford comma is just blah, blah, blah and blah.
I have my own banned list for juniors (I don't compile it, but there is a list that assistants have compiled to save themselves time). There is some overlap with Jacob Rees-Mogg's.
My list is much longer. Much.
I'm a huge fan of the Oxford comma.
I mock people who do not use it.
Misuse/lack of apostrophes triggers me like Hawaiian pizza.
Sorry about my apostrophes - I try my best, honestly
(I wouldn't know, as a good Muslim boy I don't touch the stuff, but my colleagues and friends would eye roll at the sentiment of Yank wine being better than French wine.)
(I wouldn't know, as a good Muslim boy I don't touch the stuff, but my colleagues and friends would eye roll at the sentiment of Yank wine being better than French wine.)
It can be better than the French wine that actually ends up here. Moving to the US makes it clear that the French save the best of their produce for themselves, the second rank for their European neighbours and the dross for the US and other such benighted lands.
(I wouldn't know, as a good Muslim boy I don't touch the stuff, but my colleagues and friends would eye roll at the sentiment of Yank wine being better than French wine.)
If you only have to know one rule about wine - it's really rather simple. Don't drink German.
Our two most prominent cybernats are both rather slow learners it seems.
What has liberalism got to do with a few customs checks in warehouses?
even funnier how is RoI going to pay for it - An Beal Bocht
A united Ireland would energise the Irish diaspora, which would never allow the unification process to fail on economic grounds. Neither would the EU.
deluded
I have an Irish Passport and wouldnt wish to fork out. The irish diaspora which was much bigger in the past let the country wallow in shit for the best part of ItS existence.
Paddywahackery isnt a real economy.
You are magnificently, defiantly deluded. Although I do not believe that you actually mean what you are saying.
investment on the back of tax breaks isnt the same as investment for politcal ends. Irleand attracts US investment because of its low taxes - Ive never met a paddy called Zuckerberg or Bezos. Remove the tax breaks the EU wishes to do and RoI has a problem which no amount of flag waving will solve,
If you read the Irish Post or some of the other expat papers the main concern is the decline of the Irish community and its influence, This is the flip side of the Tiger economy. The last great wave of irish emigration was the 1980s irish communities and their influence are declining not just in real numbers but also as other immigrant communities are seen as more important by politicians.
And that, of course, is why Congress will not allow a US/UK FTA if there is a No Deal Brexit.
I do not support crashing out but I do support the 20,000 police officers now we have addressed the financial crisis of 2008
As I said no amount of varying political views will change my open mind to what may happen.
I just do not know
This is however the point. If it looks as though we will crash out without a Deal how many Conservative MPs will put country before Party and join an opposition VONC to halt the No Deal?
But how does it stop the no deal.
You have to pass legislation and it is more than possible Boris will prempt it by calling a GE resulting in several conservative mps being deselected for it including Grieve
I've come back to this. It's either 2/3 of all MPs (as in 2017) to call an election or we go into the other route.
Let's say 30-40 Conservative MPs rebel and a VONC passes. In the 14 day period that follows, we'd have other options:
1) The 14 day clock runs out and an election is called. 2) Boris tries a Vote of Confidence and hopes it passes. 3) A different Government is formed which can command the confidence of the House. If that new Government succeeds, Boris is out and we have a new PM.
In theory but in my opinion no 3 is highly unlikely
Still can’t work out how 3 happens if Boris doesn’t resign. Would require the Queen to sack him and appoint someone else. I don’t think the act allows the House to express confidence in theoretical PMs? But then who is PM going into the election? Could be a long stint under some of the seat projections.
And as it’s a Parliamentary act i’m sure It would end up at the Supreme Court.
I do not support crashing out but I do support the 20,000 police officers now we have addressed the financial crisis of 2008
As I said no amount of varying political views will change my open mind to what may happen.
I just do not know
This is however the point. If it looks as though we will crash out without a Deal how many Conservative MPs will put country before Party and join an opposition VONC to halt the No Deal?
But how does it stop the no deal.
You have to pass legislation and it is more than possible Boris will prempt it by calling a GE resulting in several conservative mps being deselected for it including Grieve
I've come back to this. It's either 2/3 of all MPs (as in 2017) to call an election or we go into the other route.
Let's say 30-40 Conservative MPs rebel and a VONC passes. In the 14 day period that follows, we'd have other options:
1) The 14 day clock runs out and an election is called. 2) Boris tries a Vote of Confidence and hopes it passes. 3) A different Government is formed which can command the confidence of the House. If that new Government succeeds, Boris is out and we have a new PM.
In theory but in my opinion no 3 is highly unlikely
Depends. If it is October 30 and no agreement reached, a PM Clarke or Starmer with one task, to revoke then call a GE, is feasible IMO.
I do not support crashing out but I do support the 20,000 police officers now we have addressed the financial crisis of 2008
As I said no amount of varying political views will change my open mind to what may happen.
I just do not know
This is however the point. If it looks as though we will crash out without a Deal how many Conservative MPs will put country before Party and join an opposition VONC to halt the No Deal?
But how does it stop the no deal.
You have to pass legislation and it is more than possible Boris will prempt it by calling a GE resulting in several conservative mps being deselected for it including Grieve
I've come back to this. It's either 2/3 of all MPs (as in 2017) to call an election or we go into the other route.
Let's say 30-40 Conservative MPs rebel and a VONC passes. In the 14 day period that follows, we'd have other options:
1) The 14 day clock runs out and an election is called. 2) Boris tries a Vote of Confidence and hopes it passes. 3) A different Government is formed which can command the confidence of the House. If that new Government succeeds, Boris is out and we have a new PM.
In theory but in my opinion no 3 is highly unlikely
Still can’t work out how 3 happens if Boris doesn’t resign. Would require the Queen to sack him and appoint someone else. But then who is PM going into the election? Could be a long stint under some of the seat projections.
If the Government loses a VONC then there's a 14 day window for someone else to become Prime Minister if they command the confidence of the House.
Ken Clarke leading a government unity could happen.
VONC if nothing else works. It's clear that some Tories will vote to bring down their own government if its the only way of stopping no deal. Though I suspect something slightly less drastic will be cooked up in Sept/Oct. I'm not an expert in procedure but at least 400 of 650 MPs, a huge majority in the Lords and a large majority of voters oppose no deal - the politics of that are clear. The Commons will find a way I have no doubt.
I agree.
Come the autumn, 2 scenarios, (a) Johnson allows himself to be forced into an extension into 2020, (b) Brexit GE.
If (b) Johnson wins or he loses.
If he wins he has the authority to pass the WA - which he will since he is not serious about No Deal. This current stuff is for show.
If he loses, we are into Ref2 territory, which probably ends with Remain.
I see no route to No Deal other than accidental. I give it a 10% probability. I'm therefore laying it on betfair at 3.5. That's even better than it looks because the market is for 2019 only. No Deal in 2020 is a winner.
I have it as a toss up between the other 2 end states, Brexit via the WA, or Remain. 45% each.
But no, let's adjust that to 60/30 in favour of the WA.
The 2016 Ref said Leave and I have to believe that we eventually will.
Don't see how Johnson can get to a Brexit GE without agreeing an A50 extension in advance of it, and that would send Farage and the ERG into full betrayal mode which would probably split the Tories and mean certain defeat for Boris.
IMHO Boris really does think the EU will blink and he has bet the farm on that. Some of his stupider followers seem to think he can go for a GE but as we discussed earlier there is no easy route to that - it would require opposition support and the price of that support would be an extension to A50.
What I'm trying to work out is the step after these:-
Boris asks for a general election Corbyn and co insist on an A50 extension before voting for it. Boris says no VoNC in Boris A GONU is formed.
How does that GONU avoid Boris winning the next election? What do they have to do to avoid Boris creating a pact with Nigel...
I don't think a GONU is a runner. Corbyn will not agree to anyone else being installed as a replacement PM. Remainer Tories will have to agree to that - on a short term basis - to block No Deal.
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?
Bugger all.
Just like nothing much happens due to there being a hard border for Income Tax, VAT, Corporation Tax, Abortion, Gay Marriage or whatever else you can think of.
Do you know what percentage of Northern Ireland's export market the Republic of Ireland comprises?
5% of GDP approximately.
About 1/3rd of what goes to Great Britain.
Good googling!!
35% of all Northern Irish foreign exports go to the Republic of Ireland. That's a lot of jobs.
Northern Ireland is already heavily subsidised. No Deal Brexit means even more subsidies at a time when the UK's overall GDP will be adversely affected. So, there's one place the money we would have sent to Brussels will be spent.
it really isnt that many jobs, ni doesnt export that much. inter irish trade is worth less than Nissan Sunderland
VONC if nothing else works. It's clear that some Tories will vote to bring down their own government if its the only way of stopping no deal. Though I suspect something slightly less drastic will be cooked up in Sept/Oct. I'm not an expert in procedure but at least 400 of 650 MPs, a huge majority in the Lords and a large majority of voters oppose no deal - the politics of that are clear. The Commons will find a way I have no doubt.
I agree.
Come the autumn, 2 scenarios, (a) Johnson allows himself to be forced into an extension into 2020, (b) Brexit GE.
If (b) Johnson wins or he loses.
If he wins he has the authority to pass the WA - which he will since he is not serious about No Deal. This current stuff is for show.
If he loses, we are into Ref2 territory, which probably ends with Remain.
I see no route to No Deal other than accidental. I give it a 10% probability. I'm therefore laying it on betfair at 3.5. That's even better than it looks because the market is for 2019 only. No Deal in 2020 is a winner.
I have it as a toss up between the other 2 end states, Brexit via the WA, or Remain. 45% each.
But no, let's adjust that to 60/30 in favour of the WA.
The 2016 Ref said Leave and I have to believe that we eventually will.
Don't see how Johnson can get to a Brexit GE without agreeing an A50 extension in advance of it, and that would send Farage and the ERG into full betrayal mode which would probably split the Tories and mean certain defeat for Boris.
IMHO Boris really does think the EU will blink and he has bet the farm on that. Some of his stupider followers seem to think he can go for a GE but as we discussed earlier there is no easy route to that - it would require opposition support and the price of that support would be an extension to A50.
What I'm trying to work out is the step after these:-
Boris asks for a general election Corbyn and co insist on an A50 extension before voting for it. Boris says no VoNC in Boris A GONU is formed.
How does that GONU avoid Boris winning the next election? What do they have to do to avoid Boris creating a pact with Nigel...
I don't think a GONU is a runner. Corbyn will not agree to anyone else being installed as a replacement PM. Remainer Tories will have to agree to that - on a short term basis - to block No Deal.
Miserable woman on PM moved next to a football field then moans balls go in her garden. Then gives them away. Is surprised that is theft. Is there any wonder people are unfit and anti-social? Move if you don't like it. Miserable git.
I have my own banned list for juniors (I don't compile it, but there is a list that assistants have compiled to save themselves time). There is some overlap with Jacob Rees-Mogg's.
My list is much longer. Much.
I'm a huge fan of the Oxford comma.
I mock people who do not use it.
Misuse/lack of apostrophes triggers me like Hawaiian pizza.
If I'm correct the Oxford comma is just blah, blah, blah and blah.
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
The country won't implode. We can just get on with erecting a hard Irish border if necessary since that's what the Irish have chosen to have due to not compromising, we will have billions to spend on whatever we want and we will be free to control our own destiny. Nothing scary in any of that.
We would face some disruption but the worst of it will be up front, once time goes on we'll get used to our lives in our new paradigm.
I've read that rat's meat tastes rather like chicken.
Why is every non-standard food animal described as tasting like chicken??
I do not support crashing out but I do support the 20,000 police officers now we have addressed the financial crisis of 2008
As I said no amount of varying political views will change my open mind to what may happen.
I just do not know
This is however the point. If it looks as though we will crash out without a Deal how many Conservative MPs will put country before Party and join an opposition VONC to halt the No Deal?
But how does it stop the no deal.
You have to pass legislation and it is more than possible Boris will prempt it by calling a GE resulting in several conservative mps being deselected for it including Grieve
I've come back to this. It's either 2/3 of all MPs (as in 2017) to call an election or we go into the other route.
Let's say 30-40 Conservative MPs rebel and a VONC passes. In the 14 day period that follows, we'd have other options:
1) The 14 day clock runs out and an election is called. 2) Boris tries a Vote of Confidence and hopes it passes. 3) A different Government is formed which can command the confidence of the House. If that new Government succeeds, Boris is out and we have a new PM.
In theory but in my opinion no 3 is highly unlikely
Depends. If it is October 30 and no agreement reached, a PM Clarke or Starmer with one task, to revoke then call a GE, is feasible IMO.
You cannot revoke and call a GE. If you revoke it is final and we remain
I really do not want to think the consequences of the act of an arbitrary revoke
What has liberalism got to do with a few customs checks in warehouses?
even funnier how is RoI going to pay for it - An Beal Bocht
A united Ireland would energise the Irish diaspora, which would never allow the unification process to fail on economic grounds. Neither would the EU.
deluded
I have an Irish Passport and wouldnt wish to fork out. The irish diaspora which was much bigger in the past let the country wallow in shit for the best part of ItS existence.
Paddywahackery isnt a real economy.
You are magnificently, defiantly deluded. Although I do not believe that you actually mean what you are saying.
investment on the back of tax breaks isnt the same as investment for politcal ends. Irleand attracts US investment because of its low taxes - Ive never met a paddy called Zuckerberg or Bezos. Remove the tax breaks the EU wishes to do and RoI has a problem which no amount of flag waving will solve,
If you read the Irish Post or some of the other expat papers the main concern is the decline of the Irish community and its influence, This is the flip side of the Tiger economy. The last great wave of irish emigration was the 1980s irish communities and their influence are declining not just in real numbers but also as other immigrant communities are seen as more important by politicians.
And that, of course, is why Congress will not allow a US/UK FTA if there is a No Deal Brexit.
why on gods earth would we want one ?
the current arrangement works in our favour cant see Trump let us improve on that, they can veto away. Politically thats just Pelosi annoying Trump, and using Ireland to do it.
I do not support crashing out but I do support the 20,000 police officers now we have addressed the financial crisis of 2008
As I said no amount of varying political views will change my open mind to what may happen.
I just do not know
This is however the point. If it looks as though we will crash out without a Deal how many Conservative MPs will put country before Party and join an opposition VONC to halt the No Deal?
But how does it stop the no deal.
You have to pass legislation and it is more than possible Boris will prempt it by calling a GE resulting in several conservative mps being deselected for it including Grieve
I've come back to this. It's either 2/3 of all MPs (as in 2017) to call an election or we go into the other route.
Let's say 30-40 Conservative MPs rebel and a VONC passes. In the 14 day period that follows, we'd have other options:
1) The 14 day clock runs out and an election is called. 2) Boris tries a Vote of Confidence and hopes it passes. 3) A different Government is formed which can command the confidence of the House. If that new Government succeeds, Boris is out and we have a new PM.
In theory but in my opinion no 3 is highly unlikely
Still can’t work out how 3 happens if Boris doesn’t resign. Would require the Queen to sack him and appoint someone else. But then who is PM going into the election? Could be a long stint under some of the seat projections.
If the Government loses a VONC then there's a 14 day window for someone else to become Prime Minister if they command the confidence of the House.
Ken Clarke leading a government unity could happen.
I remain to be convinced otherwise, but the evidence so far is that insufficient of our MPs possess the cojones to pull it off. Even though they don’t always do what their parties tell them, it would be a huge step to (effectively) rip up their membership probably weeks before an election, join with people whom they have been conditioned to believe are their enemies, and generally organise themselves without an authorised whip to tell them what to do.
Despite undeniable unease on both sides with their leaders, my guess is you’d get fewer than 100 MPs through the lobby behind such a government.
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealing
This point is so overlooked. After sitting on the fence for decades we are now in play. The EU want us 100% in their sphere of influence and the USA in theirs.
What looks certain is that the fence sitting will not be allowed in the future so who is offering the best deal?
The Russian Federation?
An offer you can’t refuse.
"Have you ever considered joining Warsaw Pact?" - Comrade Dubienkin (Richard Griffiths) to the British Foreign Secretary (Geoffrey Palmer), Whoops Apocalypse.
Good Christ Above, I thought I was the only who remembered that! Well done you! IIRC it's not even on YouTube. Damn,I did like that show...
The real change this week is how now the top ministers will start to really put pressure on the civil service. If they dont perform.then i can imagine a lot of bye byes taking place no matter what it costs.
64% of Scottish Leave voters still oppose Scottish independence even if 51% of Scottish Remain voters now back it, putting No to Scottish independence still narrowly ahead despite Brexit
Old ones are the best ones, your retweets are worse than Scottp and that takes some doing.
To reply to HUYFD, Scotland split 62/38 for Remain. 64% of Scottish Leave voters saying No is 64% of 38%, i.e. 24%. 51% of Scottish Remain voters saying Yes is 51% of 62%, i.e. 32%.
So what HUYFD is pretending is a majority in favour of No is in fact a fairly healthy majority in favour of Yes. Even Curtice says so.
His last sentence is "If so, then we do not need to rely on the answers to hypothetical polling questions to conclude that the outcome of the Brexit process could potentially change the balance of support for independence versus staying in the Union – and so determine the future of the British state."
Comments
Truss opposite Wallace
Hancock opposite obscured (Patel?)
Cabinet Sec opposite Raab
Boris opposite Gove
Standards are standards.
more policemen and customs or cant you work that out ?
the irish begging bowl aint what it was
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/26/us/politics/john-hickenlooper-2020-campaign.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
"Roughly correct". Read "actually correct but we don't agree with it"
80% of the Cheddar Cheese eaten in the UK is from RoI factories made with a percentage of NI milk. NI Cheddar Cheese factories would increase production if they had capacity or then make investments.
There would be a hit in the case of no deal and tariffs implemented immediately but as we have seen in an article linked below these will not be implemented for some time.
The biggest issue is if day one customs and tarifffs are implemented between RoI ports and ports in Scot, Wales and Eng then lots of HGV's carrying beef, cheese, etc would re route via NI ports which do not have the capacity.
Regardless, the best way to describe him is-
Cybernat
I think in the early days there were a few surprising people on who later realised it was a mistake eg nick ferrari.
Jezza, george galloway and red ken in the other hand...still big fans to his day.
Gilligan's appointment is clearly jobs for the boys after his extremely helpful take down of red ken and his dodgy mates in the evening standard.
When I see that I go ballistic.
I have an Irish Passport and wouldnt wish to fork out. The irish diaspora which was much bigger in the past let the country wallow in shit for the best part of ItS existence.
Paddywahackery isnt a real economy.
Was just about to post the same sort of thought about what proportion of the uk population have been educated in metric. The absolute state of it.
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/0307/1034855-us-investment-in-ireland-at-all-time-high/
The first draft of my the paper i wrote, came back from his edit with more "corrected" sentences than untouched.
My list is much longer. Much.
I accept your point that not all Ireland exports will stop even with No Deal. Against that the potentially affected GDP is greater than 5% once you take into account dependent economic activity
Labour will be offering Ref2 / Remain in any Brexit election.
Such has been obvious for quite some time.
If you read the Irish Post or some of the other expat papers the main concern is the decline of the Irish community and its influence, This is the flip side of the Tiger economy. The last great wave of irish emigration was the 1980s irish communities and their influence are declining not just in real numbers but also as other immigrant communities are seen as more important by politicians.
I mock people who do not use it.
Misuse/lack of apostrophes triggers me like Hawaiian pizza.
I've come back to this. It's either 2/3 of all MPs (as in 2017) to call an election or we go into the other route.
Let's say 30-40 Conservative MPs rebel and a VONC passes. In the 14 day period that follows, we'd have other options:
1) The 14 day clock runs out and an election is called.
2) Boris tries a Vote of Confidence and hopes it passes.
3) A different Government is formed which can command the confidence of the House. If that new Government succeeds, Boris is out and we have a new PM.
One of my favourite things in life was the chap who is unable to use apostrophes criticising my use of the Oxford comma. It was glorious.
Is this correct?
Blah
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1154791664625606657
American wine is better than French wine???
(I wouldn't know, as a good Muslim boy I don't touch the stuff, but my colleagues and friends would eye roll at the sentiment of Yank wine being better than French wine.)
Boris said 1.5 billion but 500,000 million in first year, confirmed by Malthouse in later interviews
Our two most prominent cybernats are both rather slow learners it seems.
And as it’s a Parliamentary act i’m sure It would end up at the Supreme Court.
Ken Clarke leading a government unity could happen.
Move if you don't like it. Miserable git.
https://twitter.com/IAmOxfordComma/status/835069687092359168
NEW THREAD
I really do not want to think the consequences of the act of an arbitrary revoke
The result of that election is more likely to create further deadlock
the current arrangement works in our favour cant see Trump let us improve on that, they can veto away. Politically thats just Pelosi annoying Trump, and using Ireland to do it.
Despite undeniable unease on both sides with their leaders, my guess is you’d get fewer than 100 MPs through the lobby behind such a government.
If they dont perform.then i can imagine a lot of bye byes taking place no matter what it costs.
64% of Scottish Leave voters saying No is 64% of 38%, i.e. 24%.
51% of Scottish Remain voters saying Yes is 51% of 62%, i.e. 32%.
So what HUYFD is pretending is a majority in favour of No is in fact a fairly healthy majority in favour of Yes. Even Curtice says so.
His last sentence is "If so, then we do not need to rely on the answers to hypothetical polling questions to conclude that the outcome of the Brexit process could potentially change the balance of support for independence versus staying in the Union – and so determine the future of the British state."