VONC if nothing else works. It's clear that some Tories will vote to bring down their own government if its the only way of stopping no deal. Though I suspect something slightly less drastic will be cooked up in Sept/Oct. I'm not an expert in procedure but at least 400 of 650 MPs, a huge majority in the Lords and a large majority of voters oppose no deal - the politics of that are clear. The Commons will find a way I have no doubt.
I agree.
Come the autumn, 2 scenarios, (a) Johnson allows himself to be forced into an extension into 2020, (b) Brexit GE.
If (b) Johnson wins or he loses.
If he wins he has the authority to pass the WA - which he will since he is not serious about No Deal. This current stuff is for show.
If he loses, we are into Ref2 territory, which probably ends with Remain.
I see no route to No Deal other than accidental. I give it a 10% probability. I'm therefore laying it on betfair at 3.5. That's even better than it looks because the market is for 2019 only. No Deal in 2020 is a winner.
I have it as a toss up between the other 2 end states, Brexit via the WA, or Remain. 45% each.
But no, let's adjust that to 60/30 in favour of the WA.
The 2016 Ref said Leave and I have to believe that we eventually will.
Ooh, what a surprise! A Guardian hit-piece on Dominic Cummings, that could mostly have been written three years ago after he masterminded the Vote Leave campaign.
The Vote Leave campaign is one of the main reasons that Brexit has been a complete car crash for the last three years. Nigel Farage has far more political nous than Dominic Cummings.
The Vote Leave campaign operates under the parameters of the question and legislation they were given by the 2015 Parliament. It’s not a campaigner’s fault that Parliament left the question so open-ended.
Vote Leave came up with a very clear, clean and straightforward way of leaving. Lets hope we finally do it now.
You sure about that? This was their laughable 'plan':
All these "principled" resignations are from people who served under "No deal is better than a bad deal" May for years.
Why is no deal 2.5 years into the 2 year window of Article 50 so unacceptable, but it was acceptable to state as your option for years?
Or was it just on an assumption that May was lying to everyone and would never follow through whereas Boris might be telling the truth?
It's a good question. I think it was that once reality hit May it became obvious that the rhetoric couldn't be sustained. But yes, it was a f***ing stupid thing to have said.
But she kept up with the rhetoric until she left. Fair enough to change your mind, but was she lying when she continued to say it even recently she was still insisting no deal must be an option.
Boris Johnson is also lying about it.
Well that of course is why the next 97 days is going to be so interesting.
Ooh, what a surprise! A Guardian hit-piece on Dominic Cummings, that could mostly have been written three years ago after he masterminded the Vote Leave campaign.
The Vote Leave campaign is one of the main reasons that Brexit has been a complete car crash for the last three years. Nigel Farage has far more political nous than Dominic Cummings.
That's just sour grapes because Vote Leave ran circles around your side and won.
I was disenfranchised in the referendum. Cameron's Remain was a Eurosceptic campaign.
LOL - a little ambivalent on Brexit yourself then Mr Glenn!
Ooh, what a surprise! A Guardian hit-piece on Dominic Cummings, that could mostly have been written three years ago after he masterminded the Vote Leave campaign.
The Vote Leave campaign is one of the main reasons that Brexit has been a complete car crash for the last three years. Nigel Farage has far more political nous than Dominic Cummings.
The Vote Leave campaign operates under the parameters of the question and legislation they were given by the 2015 Parliament. It’s not a campaigner’s fault that Parliament left the question so open-ended.
Vote Leave came up with a very clear, clean and straightforward way of leaving. Lets hope we finally do it now.
You sure about that? This was their laughable 'plan':
Ooh, what a surprise! A Guardian hit-piece on Dominic Cummings, that could mostly have been written three years ago after he masterminded the Vote Leave campaign.
The Vote Leave campaign is one of the main reasons that Brexit has been a complete car crash for the last three years. Nigel Farage has far more political nous than Dominic Cummings.
That's just sour grapes because Vote Leave ran circles around your side and won.
I was disenfranchised in the referendum. Cameron's Remain was a Eurosceptic campaign.
The problem is that Boris HAS got a plan and it looks like Cummings will force the UK to ally with the US Alt-right in an anti EU and anti Liberal alliance...Chlorinated Chicken, socially conservative culture wars and all
Ooh, what a surprise! A Guardian hit-piece on Dominic Cummings, that could mostly have been written three years ago after he masterminded the Vote Leave campaign.
The Vote Leave campaign is one of the main reasons that Brexit has been a complete car crash for the last three years. Nigel Farage has far more political nous than Dominic Cummings.
That's just sour grapes because Vote Leave ran circles around your side and won.
I was disenfranchised in the referendum. Cameron's Remain was a Eurosceptic campaign.
didnt you get a vote same as everyone else ?
There are plenty of ways to be disenfranchised - and absolutely no need to ask why.
The Podsmead local by-election result is very interesting. It's an example of exactly what I, and others, were arguing about in terms of tactical voting. If a few voters who had voted Lib Dem had decided to vote "tactically" for Labour, because Labour won the ward at the previous election, then the Conservatives would have sneaked it just ahead of the Lib Dems.
I think that potential for confusion gives Johnson a great chance of winning a majority.
Let me get this straight.
Podsmead (Gloucester) result: LDEM: 30.0% (+30.0) CON: 29.6% (-18.5) LAB: 18.0% (-33.9) BREX: 16.4% (+16.4) GRN: 4.3% (+4.3) UKIP: 1.6% (+1.6) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour.
You are basing your argument on what might have happened if people had voted differently - but didn't. Is that correct?
Yes. Labour have dropped from first to third, so it would have been mistaken to see them as best placed to defeat the Tories.
I think they could drop to third in some of the marginal seats they currently hold, given present opinion polls.
A non sequitur. The result is very largely due to pavement politics and the fact that the local Labour councillor resigned because he was facing disqualification for non- attendance.
Ooh, what a surprise! A Guardian hit-piece on Dominic Cummings, that could mostly have been written three years ago after he masterminded the Vote Leave campaign.
The Vote Leave campaign is one of the main reasons that Brexit has been a complete car crash for the last three years. Nigel Farage has far more political nous than Dominic Cummings.
That's just sour grapes because Vote Leave ran circles around your side and won.
I was disenfranchised in the referendum. Cameron's Remain was a Eurosceptic campaign.
didnt you get a vote same as everyone else ?
There are plenty of ways to be disenfranchised - and absolutely no need to ask why.
are you saying Billy boy was in the clink at the time ?
Ooh, what a surprise! A Guardian hit-piece on Dominic Cummings, that could mostly have been written three years ago after he masterminded the Vote Leave campaign.
The Vote Leave campaign is one of the main reasons that Brexit has been a complete car crash for the last three years. Nigel Farage has far more political nous than Dominic Cummings.
That's just sour grapes because Vote Leave ran circles around your side and won.
I was disenfranchised in the referendum. Cameron's Remain was a Eurosceptic campaign.
didnt you get a vote same as everyone else ?
There are plenty of ways to be disenfranchised - and absolutely no need to ask why.
are you saying Billy boy was in the clink at the time ?
Oh FFS sake - It'll never happen to you I'm sure Mr Brooke so don't worry.
My reason was I was No Fixed Abode at the time - I assume Mr Glenn was also going through a less than perfect time in his life.
All these "principled" resignations are from people who served under "No deal is better than a bad deal" May for years.
Why is no deal 2.5 years into the 2 year window of Article 50 so unacceptable, but it was acceptable to state as your option for years?
Or was it just on an assumption that May was lying to everyone and would never follow through whereas Boris might be telling the truth?
It's a good question. I think it was that once reality hit May it became obvious that the rhetoric couldn't be sustained. But yes, it was a f***ing stupid thing to have said.
In fact, until she stupidly coined the expression "No Deal is better than a Bad Deal" , No Deal had not entered the Brexit lexicon. The expression was not used during the referendum. Ironically, the ERG cannot be blamed for this. May simply was not a politician. How she survived so long to become the PM is a mystery.
Ooh, what a surprise! A Guardian hit-piece on Dominic Cummings, that could mostly have been written three years ago after he masterminded the Vote Leave campaign.
The Vote Leave campaign is one of the main reasons that Brexit has been a complete car crash for the last three years. Nigel Farage has far more political nous than Dominic Cummings.
That's just sour grapes because Vote Leave ran circles around your side and won.
I was disenfranchised in the referendum. Cameron's Remain was a Eurosceptic campaign.
didnt you get a vote same as everyone else ?
There are plenty of ways to be disenfranchised - and absolutely no need to ask why.
are you saying Billy boy was in the clink at the time ?
Oh FFS sake - It'll never happen to you I'm sure Mr Brooke so don't worry.
My reason was I was No Fixed Abode at the time - I assume Mr Glenn was also going through a less than perfect time in his life.
VONC if nothing else works. It's clear that some Tories will vote to bring down their own government if its the only way of stopping no deal. Though I suspect something slightly less drastic will be cooked up in Sept/Oct. I'm not an expert in procedure but at least 400 of 650 MPs, a huge majority in the Lords and a large majority of voters oppose no deal - the politics of that are clear. The Commons will find a way I have no doubt.
I agree.
Come the autumn, 2 scenarios, (a) Johnson allows himself to be forced into an extension into 2020, (b) Brexit GE.
If (b) Johnson wins or he loses.
If he wins he has the authority to pass the WA - which he will since he is not serious about No Deal. This current stuff is for show.
If he loses, we are into Ref2 territory, which probably ends with Remain.
I see no route to No Deal other than accidental. I give it a 10% probability. I'm therefore laying it on betfair at 3.5. That's even better than it looks because the market is for 2019 only. No Deal in 2020 is a winner.
I have it as a toss up between the other 2 end states, Brexit via the WA, or Remain. 45% each.
But no, let's adjust that to 60/30 in favour of the WA.
The 2016 Ref said Leave and I have to believe that we eventually will.
Don't see how Johnson can get to a Brexit GE without agreeing an A50 extension in advance of it, and that would send Farage and the ERG into full betrayal mode which would probably split the Tories and mean certain defeat for Boris.
IMHO Boris really does think the EU will blink and he has bet the farm on that. Some of his stupider followers seem to think he can go for a GE but as we discussed earlier there is no easy route to that - it would require opposition support and the price of that support would be an extension to A50 which would incinerate Boris' credibility as his do or die promise to leave on 31 October would be junked.
All these "principled" resignations are from people who served under "No deal is better than a bad deal" May for years.
Why is no deal 2.5 years into the 2 year window of Article 50 so unacceptable, but it was acceptable to state as your option for years?
Or was it just on an assumption that May was lying to everyone and would never follow through whereas Boris might be telling the truth?
It's a good question. I think it was that once reality hit May it became obvious that the rhetoric couldn't be sustained. But yes, it was a f***ing stupid thing to have said.
In fact, until she stupidly coined the expression "No Deal is better than a Bad Deal" , No Deal had not entered the Brexit lexicon. The expression was not used during the referendum. Ironically, the ERG cannot be blamed for this. May simply was not a politician. How she survived so long to become the PM is a mystery.
I think that's slightly unfair. The logic of No Deal ultimately stems from Cameron's Bloomberg speech with the notion that if we don't get what we want, we'll walk away.
Ooh, what a surprise! A Guardian hit-piece on Dominic Cummings, that could mostly have been written three years ago after he masterminded the Vote Leave campaign.
The Vote Leave campaign is one of the main reasons that Brexit has been a complete car crash for the last three years. Nigel Farage has far more political nous than Dominic Cummings.
The Vote Leave campaign operates under the parameters of the question and legislation they were given by the 2015 Parliament. It’s not a campaigner’s fault that Parliament left the question so open-ended.
Vote Leave came up with a very clear, clean and straightforward way of leaving. Lets hope we finally do it now.
You sure about that? This was their laughable 'plan':
Ooh, what a surprise! A Guardian hit-piece on Dominic Cummings, that could mostly have been written three years ago after he masterminded the Vote Leave campaign.
The Vote Leave campaign is one of the main reasons that Brexit has been a complete car crash for the last three years. Nigel Farage has far more political nous than Dominic Cummings.
That's just sour grapes because Vote Leave ran circles around your side and won.
I was disenfranchised in the referendum. Cameron's Remain was a Eurosceptic campaign.
didnt you get a vote same as everyone else ?
There are plenty of ways to be disenfranchised - and absolutely no need to ask why.
are you saying Billy boy was in the clink at the time ?
Oh FFS sake - It'll never happen to you I'm sure Mr Brooke so don't worry.
My reason was I was No Fixed Abode at the time - I assume Mr Glenn was also going through a less than perfect time in his life.
sorry to hear about the NFA problem
It's okay, I've got a home now. Ironically Mr Glen asked me why I was disenfranshised at the time some threads ago - being on opposite sides of an argument can cause some weird logic
I was disenfranchised in the referendum. Cameron's Remain was a Eurosceptic campaign.
This is a point.
Support for much deeper integration and euro membership is a minority sport in this country but it is nevertheless a group of people who would more than fill Wembley Stadium. And they were indeed disenfranchised by the Referendum.
Imagine if they had got together and packed out Wembley and demanded that 3rd option - Leave Remain ... REMAIN & REJOICE.
Would David Cameron have had the balls to get up there on stage and face them down? Tell them they didn't matter? That he was only interested in fruits and loons and closet racists?
No way. He would have run a million miles. And yet that, effectively, is what he did from a position of shelter behind his desk.
I know, I know, it's in the Daily Mail, but still ....... 100 grand a year for ex prime ministers to fulfill "their public role". Didn't we bung them enough cash with pensions, expenses and the redundo they get for being voted out on top of the 100+k a year they got just for turning up? The establishment look after their own.
Ooh, what a surprise! A Guardian hit-piece on Dominic Cummings, that could mostly have been written three years ago after he masterminded the Vote Leave campaign.
The Vote Leave campaign is one of the main reasons that Brexit has been a complete car crash for the last three years. Nigel Farage has far more political nous than Dominic Cummings.
The Vote Leave campaign operates under the parameters of the question and legislation they were given by the 2015 Parliament. It’s not a campaigner’s fault that Parliament left the question so open-ended.
Vote Leave came up with a very clear, clean and straightforward way of leaving. Lets hope we finally do it now.
You sure about that? This was their laughable 'plan':
VONC if nothing else works. It's clear that some Tories will vote to bring down their own government if its the only way of stopping no deal. Though I suspect something slightly less drastic will be cooked up in Sept/Oct. I'm not an expert in procedure but at least 400 of 650 MPs, a huge majority in the Lords and a large majority of voters oppose no deal - the politics of that are clear. The Commons will find a way I have no doubt.
I agree.
Come the autumn, 2 scenarios, (a) Johnson allows himself to be forced into an extension into 2020, (b) Brexit GE.
If (b) Johnson wins or he loses.
If he wins he has the authority to pass the WA - which he will since he is not serious about No Deal. This current stuff is for show.
If he loses, we are into Ref2 territory, which probably ends with Remain.
I see no route to No Deal other than accidental. I give it a 10% probability. I'm therefore laying it on betfair at 3.5. That's even better than it looks because the market is for 2019 only. No Deal in 2020 is a winner.
I have it as a toss up between the other 2 end states, Brexit via the WA, or Remain. 45% each.
But no, let's adjust that to 60/30 in favour of the WA.
The 2016 Ref said Leave and I have to believe that we eventually will.
Don't see how Johnson can get to a Brexit GE without agreeing an A50 extension in advance of it, and that would send Farage and the ERG into full betrayal mode which would probably split the Tories and mean certain defeat for Boris.
IMHO Boris really does think the EU will blink and he has bet the farm on that. Some of his stupider followers seem to think he can go for a GE but as we discussed earlier there is no easy route to that - it would require opposition support and the price of that support would be an extension to A50 which would incinerate Boris' credibility as his do or die promise to leave on 31 October would be junked.
He should refuse to extend. If Parliament wishes to No Confidence then extend before an election they should do that and he should stand there firm against the coup as Leader of the Opposition in the meantime and go into the election as the united Vote Leave leader.
VONC if nothing else works. It's clear that some Tories will vote to bring down their own government if its the only way of stopping no deal. Though I suspect something slightly less drastic will be cooked up in Sept/Oct. I'm not an expert in procedure but at least 400 of 650 MPs, a huge majority in the Lords and a large majority of voters oppose no deal - the politics of that are clear. The Commons will find a way I have no doubt.
I agree.
Come the autumn, 2 scenarios, (a) Johnson allows himself to be forced into an extension into 2020, (b) Brexit GE.
If (b) Johnson wins or he loses.
If he wins he has the authority to pass the WA - which he will since he is not serious about No Deal. This current stuff is for show.
If he loses, we are into Ref2 territory, which probably ends with Remain.
I see no route to No Deal other than accidental. I give it a 10% probability. I'm therefore laying it on betfair at 3.5. That's even better than it looks because the market is for 2019 only. No Deal in 2020 is a winner.
I have it as a toss up between the other 2 end states, Brexit via the WA, or Remain. 45% each.
But no, let's adjust that to 60/30 in favour of the WA.
The 2016 Ref said Leave and I have to believe that we eventually will.
Don't see how Johnson can get to a Brexit GE without agreeing an A50 extension in advance of it, and that would send Farage and the ERG into full betrayal mode which would probably split the Tories and mean certain defeat for Boris.
IMHO Boris really does think the EU will blink and he has bet the farm on that. Some of his stupider followers seem to think he can go for a GE but as we discussed earlier there is no easy route to that - it would require opposition support and the price of that support would be an extension to A50.
What I'm trying to work out is the step after these:-
Boris asks for a general election Corbyn and co insist on an A50 extension before voting for it. Boris says no VoNC in Boris A GONU is formed.
How does that GONU avoid Boris winning the next election? What do they have to do to avoid Boris creating a pact with Nigel...
Ooh, what a surprise! A Guardian hit-piece on Dominic Cummings, that could mostly have been written three years ago after he masterminded the Vote Leave campaign.
The Vote Leave campaign is one of the main reasons that Brexit has been a complete car crash for the last three years. Nigel Farage has far more political nous than Dominic Cummings.
That's just sour grapes because Vote Leave ran circles around your side and won.
By a very small margin and under very dubious circumstances. Anyway, the numbskulls and fuckwits completely own it now. They cannot blame anyone for the inevitable car crash anymore
I was disenfranchised in the referendum. Cameron's Remain was a Eurosceptic campaign.
This is a point.
Support for much deeper integration and euro membership is a minority sport in this country but it is nevertheless a group of people who would more than fill Wembley Stadium. And they were indeed disenfranchised by the Referendum.
Imagine if they had got together and packed out Wembley and demanded that 3rd option - Leave Remain ... REMAIN & REJOICE.
Would David Cameron have had the balls to get up there on stage and face them down? Tell them they didn't matter? That he was only interested in fruits and loons and closet racists?
No way. He would have run a million miles. And yet that, effectively, is what he did from a position of shelter behind his desk.
It was rank cowardice.
That's bonkers!
Remain and rejoice is a subset of remain.
Just as leave and EEA, leave and FTA, leave and WTO are all subsets of leave.
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I was disenfranchised in the referendum. Cameron's Remain was a Eurosceptic campaign.
This is a point.
Support for much deeper integration and euro membership is a minority sport in this country but it is nevertheless a group of people who would more than fill Wembley Stadium. And they were indeed disenfranchised by the Referendum.
Imagine if they had got together and packed out Wembley and demanded that 3rd option - Leave Remain ... REMAIN & REJOICE.
Would David Cameron have had the balls to get up there on stage and face them down? Tell them they didn't matter? That he was only interested in fruits and loons and closet racists?
No way. He would have run a million miles. And yet that, effectively, is what he did from a position of shelter behind his desk.
It was rank cowardice.
That's bonkers!
Remain and rejoice is a subset of remain.
Just as leave and EEA, leave and FTA, leave and WTO are all subsets of leave.
Any version of Leave is leave. The referendum was about leaving the Political side of the EU - beyond that it is just variations of leave - some more acceptable to more people than others..
Ooh, what a surprise! A Guardian hit-piece on Dominic Cummings, that could mostly have been written three years ago after he masterminded the Vote Leave campaign.
The Vote Leave campaign is one of the main reasons that Brexit has been a complete car crash for the last three years. Nigel Farage has far more political nous than Dominic Cummings.
That's just sour grapes because Vote Leave ran circles around your side and won.
By a very small margin and under very dubious circumstances. Anyway, the numbskulls and fuckwits completely own it now. They cannot blame anyone for the inevitable car crash anymore
Absolutely 100% agreed . . . So long as the referendum losers in Parliament don't pull the plug on us having a clean Brexit if there's no deal agreed.
I was disenfranchised in the referendum. Cameron's Remain was a Eurosceptic campaign.
This is a point.
Support for much deeper integration and euro membership is a minority sport in this country but it is nevertheless a group of people who would more than fill Wembley Stadium. And they were indeed disenfranchised by the Referendum.
Imagine if they had got together and packed out Wembley and demanded that 3rd option - Leave Remain ... REMAIN & REJOICE.
Would David Cameron have had the balls to get up there on stage and face them down? Tell them they didn't matter? That he was only interested in fruits and loons and closet racists?
No way. He would have run a million miles. And yet that, effectively, is what he did from a position of shelter behind his desk.
It was rank cowardice.
That's bonkers!
Remain and rejoice is a subset of remain.
Just as leave and EEA, leave and FTA, leave and WTO are all subsets of leave.
Any version of Leave is leave. The referendum was about leaving the Political side of the EU - beyond that it is just variations of leave - some more acceptable to more people than others..
That was my point.
Just as any version of remain is remain . . . whether it is a sceptical remain or lets rush headlong into the Euro remain.
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
Let's get one thing straight. If the WA is not passed [ even an amended one ], there will be no FTA....oh, I forgot they need us more than we need them.
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
Ooh, what a surprise! A Guardian hit-piece on Dominic Cummings, that could mostly have been written three years ago after he masterminded the Vote Leave campaign.
The Vote Leave campaign is one of the main reasons that Brexit has been a complete car crash for the last three years. Nigel Farage has far more political nous than Dominic Cummings.
That's just sour grapes because Vote Leave ran circles around your side and won.
By a very small margin and under very dubious circumstances. Anyway, the numbskulls and fuckwits completely own it now. They cannot blame anyone for the inevitable car crash anymore
Absolutely 100% agreed . . . So long as the referendum losers in Parliament don't pull the plug on us having a clean Brexit if there's no deal agreed.
It is not a 'clean' Brexit, that is a deluded term. It is 'wrenching' Brexit, ripping up decades of agreements and trading arrangements with nothing in place as replacement.
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
That's not true - there are Fuckwits on the oppostion bench who aren't in the Government.
Fine, a Government of All Fuckwits.
Honestly, I'm the lawyer and pedant here! .
And acclaimed writer, don't forget...
Let's not exaggerate. I'm not even sure any of my children have bothered to read what I write. They smile indulgently at me, treating PB as some sort of indoor vice for the middle-aged, what I do when I'm not gardening.
Boris' plan is a falsehood. Either he doesn't intend to leave with no deal and his bluster is, er, bluster. Or he does and he wants to claim it's the EU's fault.
The latter might have weight if Boris had an alternative, or a plan to get something through the Commons. He doesn't. Maybe he will in the future, but so far I see no reason to change my opinion, namely that Boris is a moron.
Don't see how Johnson can get to a Brexit GE without agreeing an A50 extension in advance of it, and that would send Farage and the ERG into full betrayal mode which would probably split the Tories and mean certain defeat for Boris.
IMHO Boris really does think the EU will blink and he has bet the farm on that. Some of his stupider followers seem to think he can go for a GE but as we discussed earlier there is no easy route to that - it would require opposition support and the price of that support would be an extension to A50 which would incinerate Boris' credibility as his do or die promise to leave on 31 October would be junked.
I cannot believe that BoJo could be so delusional as to think there is reincarnated olive's chance in a dry martini of the EU caving over the summer. He surely knows that they won't.
But I do agree with you about the election. It comes, one way or another, with an extension. And this will be a challenge for the Great Man.
Corbyn could well be "PM by Christmas". I think when he said so at Glasto in 2017 he did mean this year.
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealing
Apropos of nothing I was on a Boris Bike yesterday and some random bloke (also on a bike) stopped beside me and said "Hello Christopher". He thought I was Christopher Nugee!!
Slightly offended because surely Sir Christopher looks far wearier than I hope I did.
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealing
That'll be popular! Mine's a chlorinated chicken please.
VONC if nothing else works. It's clear that some Tories will vote to bring down their own government if its the only way of stopping no deal. Though I suspect something slightly less drastic will be cooked up in Sept/Oct. I'm not an expert in procedure but at least 400 of 650 MPs, a huge majority in the Lords and a large majority of voters oppose no deal - the politics of that are clear. The Commons will find a way I have no doubt.
I agree.
Come the autumn, 2 scenarios, (a) Johnson allows himself to be forced into an extension into 2020, (b) Brexit GE.
If (b) Johnson wins or he loses.
If he wins he has the authority to pass the WA - which he will since he is not serious about No Deal. This current stuff is for show.
If he loses, we are into Ref2 territory, which probably ends with Remain.
I see no route to No Deal other than accidental. I give it a 10% probability. I'm therefore laying it on betfair at 3.5. That's even better than it looks because the market is for 2019 only. No Deal in 2020 is a winner.
I have it as a toss up between the other 2 end states, Brexit via the WA, or Remain. 45% each.
But no, let's adjust that to 60/30 in favour of the WA.
The 2016 Ref said Leave and I have to believe that we eventually will.
Don't see how Johnson can get to a Brexit GE without agreeing an A50 extension in advance of it, and that would send Farage and the ERG into full betrayal mode which would probably split the Tories and mean certain defeat for Boris.
IMHO Boris really does think the EU will blink and he has bet the farm on that. Some of his stupider followers seem to think he can go for a GE but as we discussed earlier there is no easy route to that - it would require opposition support and the price of that support would be an extension to A50.
What I'm trying to work out is the step after these:-
Boris asks for a general election Corbyn and co insist on an A50 extension before voting for it. Boris says no VoNC in Boris A GONU is formed.
How does that GONU avoid Boris winning the next election? What do they have to do to avoid Boris creating a pact with Nigel...
Boris's credibility - already pretty low - would be shot to bits if he asks for a general election instead of delivering on his commitment to leave by 31 October. No ifs, no buts, leave on 31 October he said. Do or die. Anyway, there's precious little evidence that the Tories could win a majority at a GE now and calling one would lead to a massive round of bloodletting in the party if they try to get rid of the Gawkward squad as candidates.
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealing
That'll be popular! Mine's a chlorinated chicken please.
youre eating them already, and infected eggs, donkey sold as beef, chemical prawns, water injected bacon and you really dont want to know about lettuce.
Boris' plan is a falsehood. Either he doesn't intend to leave with no deal and his bluster is, er, bluster. Or he does and he wants to claim it's the EU's fault.
The latter might have weight if Boris had an alternative, or a plan to get something through the Commons. He doesn't. Maybe he will in the future, but so far I see no reason to change my opinion, namely that Boris is a moron.
...
Boris Johnson is many things but he is not a moron. He may, however, be taking others for fools.
Boris' plan is a falsehood. Either he doesn't intend to leave with no deal and his bluster is, er, bluster. Or he does and he wants to claim it's the EU's fault.
The latter might have weight if Boris had an alternative, or a plan to get something through the Commons. He doesn't. Maybe he will in the future, but so far I see no reason to change my opinion, namely that Boris is a moron.
...
Boris Johnson is many things but he is not a moron. He may, however, be taking others for fools.
Boris is not a details man. He will have an overall plan - but I suspect that plan has assumptions in it that are incorrect even at first glance... Equally does Boris actually listen to people who say No to him? I don't see much history of it..
Johnson is preparing for a populist election campaign in the Autumn. Step 1 is to establish the EU as the enemy without. So he asks for something he knows they won't agree to (removing the backstop). When they refuse, he casts them as intransigent and prepares for no deal. This sets up step 2, where he establishes parliament as the enemy within, by presenting them with no deal, which they will feel obliged to block in order to prevent chaos. Most likely they "force" him into an election, where he can pose as defending the will of the people against both sets of enemies. It's not very subtle but it may be effective.
Lots, I should think. Welcome to the big bad world of social media microtargeting as in this 2-minute Sky News report with examples from Boris. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b3NyGs_LYus
Mr. Meeks, his conduct as Foreign Secretary, and advocating for narrow self-interest a decision that will affect the nation for decades or centuries to come (and which he is unlikely to actually believe), adds credence to my view that Boris is a moron.
I do not, however, disregard that he is also full of shit.
Apropos of nothing I was on a Boris Bike yesterday and some random bloke (also on a bike) stopped beside me and said "Hello Christopher". He thought I was Christopher Nugee!!
Slightly offended because surely Sir Christopher looks far wearier than I hope I did.
Boris' plan is a falsehood. Either he doesn't intend to leave with no deal and his bluster is, er, bluster. Or he does and he wants to claim it's the EU's fault.
The latter might have weight if Boris had an alternative, or a plan to get something through the Commons. He doesn't. Maybe he will in the future, but so far I see no reason to change my opinion, namely that Boris is a moron.
...
Boris Johnson is many things but he is not a moron. He may, however, be taking others for fools.
Just as leave and EEA, leave and FTA, leave and WTO are all subsets of leave.
But with hindsight, a more granular choice in 2016 might have been better.
Leave. Repeat Leave. JFDI. Leave in a calm orderly adult fashion, respecting the Union and the GFA. Remain. REMAIN & REJOICE.
By preference voting - e.g. AV.
Whatever won would then have been a clear and deliverable choice.
But no, Cameron knew best ...
Parliament not Cameron chose the question and anything more than a binary choice would have led to screams of outrage that their particular granular choice wasn't an option.
We leave or we remain. How we leave or how we remain is then a matter for Parliament.
Ooh, what a surprise! A Guardian hit-piece on Dominic Cummings, that could mostly have been written three years ago after he masterminded the Vote Leave campaign.
The Vote Leave campaign is one of the main reasons that Brexit has been a complete car crash for the last three years. Nigel Farage has far more political nous than Dominic Cummings.
That's just sour grapes because Vote Leave ran circles around your side and won.
By a very small margin and under very dubious circumstances. Anyway, the numbskulls and fuckwits completely own it now. They cannot blame anyone for the inevitable car crash anymore
Absolutely 100% agreed . . . So long as the referendum losers in Parliament don't pull the plug on us having a clean Brexit if there's no deal agreed.
Pleased that you agree the referendum was won under dubious circumstances and that leavers are general numbskulls and fuckwits.
An important part of therapy is owning up to reality. Maybe you can form "Numbskull Leavers Not-So Anonymous" where you can applaud each other for admitting you are extraordinarily politically and geopolitically dumb.
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealing
That'll be popular! Mine's a chlorinated chicken please.
Us having to implement the 2nd amendment would be...interesting...
Johnson is preparing for a populist election campaign in the Autumn. Step 1 is to establish the EU as the enemy without. So he asks for something he knows they won't agree to (removing the backstop). When they refuse, he casts them as intransigent and prepares for no deal. This sets up step 2, where he establishes parliament as the enemy within, by presenting them with no deal, which they will feel obliged to block in order to prevent chaos. Most likely they "force" him into an election, where he can pose as defending the will of the people against both sets of enemies. It's not very subtle but it may be effective.
Are you sure the timing of that works? What do you see as the dates of Step 1, Step 2 and the election?
I seem to remember Theresa May was viewed as a Machiavellian genius, moving her colleagues around the chess board like mere pawns in accordance with her secret master plan. But in the end it turned out she'd been absolutely clueless all along.
Is there any reason to think things are any different with Johnson?
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?
Who is imposing it? And whose army will protect it?
The No Deal diehards like Baker and Francois are basically Brexit Party anyway, even refusing to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3 thus resulting in us still being in the EU.
Much like the diehard Remainers like Greening and Grieve who voted against both the Withdrawal Agreement and No Deal and are basically LDs who want to stop Brexit
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?
Boris' plan is a falsehood. Either he doesn't intend to leave with no deal and his bluster is, er, bluster. Or he does and he wants to claim it's the EU's fault.
The latter might have weight if Boris had an alternative, or a plan to get something through the Commons. He doesn't. Maybe he will in the future, but so far I see no reason to change my opinion, namely that Boris is a moron.
...
He has an alternative. A backstopless deal.
If the EU insists on getting the backstop and we go to no deal then they get: no backstop, no money, disruption and a hard Irish border. If the EU compromises they get: no backstop, lots of money, no disruption and an invisible Irish border.
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?
Who is imposing it? And whose army will protect it?
Are you extremely young or something, that you talk about Northern Ireland and armies with such gay abandon?
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealing
This point is so overlooked. After sitting on the fence for decades we are now in play. The EU want us 100% in their sphere of influence and the USA in theirs.
What looks certain is that the fence sitting will not be allowed in the future so who is offering the best deal?
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?
Who is imposing it? And whose army will protect it?
The EU will create one over time. It will also create one immediately at the entry points to the Singe Market that really matter to the UK.
The Lib Dems have had half an hour to outline a five year programme... and managed to come up with one piece of legislation: PR. Which was the only well-known LD policy back in the 1980s.
You guys have a problem: we all know what you are against, Brexit. But what on earth are you for? Short and snappy, a la Tony. Don’t be shy.
Fair comment - the LD policy is:
1) We want a Second Referendum. 2) We're going to win it this time. 3) If we don't there'll be a third vote in 2025.
Whereas the SNP position is:
1) We want a Second Referendum. 2) We're going to win it this time. 3) If we don't there'll be a third vote in 2025.
I'm going to be cynical and then downright heretical for a moment. First the cynical bit - everybody supports democracy but only when it works for them. Anyone can shout to the roof tops about democracy and the democratic deficit when they have the votes and the voters on their side - that's why parties run to the voters these days because it's so much easier and quicker than have the voters run to you.
Now, the heretical - majorities aren't always right. Indeed, I define a majority as the largest group of people wrong about any given issue at any given time. Does majoritarian rule work in everyone's interests or simply in the interests of that majority. Why work out a principle or an ideology - let's just see what most people like and follow that. Why choose the candidate who would be the best Prime Minister - why not just choose the one everybody likes? Churchill was right about democracy but the truth now is policy is dictated by majorities delivered by polls organised by sampling and focus groups. What do the key group of swing voters actually want - let's offer them that and they might come our way? What do minority groups want - who cares?
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
The country won't implode. We can just get on with erecting a hard Irish border if necessary since that's what the Irish have chosen to have due to not compromising, we will have billions to spend on whatever we want and we will be free to control our own destiny. Nothing scary in any of that.
We would face some disruption but the worst of it will be up front, once time goes on we'll get used to our lives in our new paradigm.
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealing
This point is so overlooked. After sitting on the fence for decades we are now in play. The EU want us 100% in their sphere of influence and the USA in theirs.
What looks certain is that the fence sitting will not be allowed in the future so who is offering the best deal?
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealing
That'll be popular! Mine's a chlorinated chicken please.
youre eating them already, and infected eggs, donkey sold as beef, chemical prawns, water injected bacon and you really dont want to know about lettuce.
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
The country won't implode. We can just get on with erecting a hard Irish border if necessary since that's what the Irish have chosen to have due to not compromising, we will have billions to spend on whatever we want and we will be free to control our own destiny. Nothing scary in any of that.
We would face some disruption but the worst of it will be up front, once time goes on we'll get used to our lives in our new paradigm.
I've read that rat's meat tastes rather like chicken.
Johnson is preparing for a populist election campaign in the Autumn. Step 1 is to establish the EU as the enemy without. So he asks for something he knows they won't agree to (removing the backstop). When they refuse, he casts them as intransigent and prepares for no deal. This sets up step 2, where he establishes parliament as the enemy within, by presenting them with no deal, which they will feel obliged to block in order to prevent chaos. Most likely they "force" him into an election, where he can pose as defending the will of the people against both sets of enemies. It's not very subtle but it may be effective.
And in the meantime the opposition has gone on holiday giving Boris and his cabinet six weeks to firm up their GE manifesto and start recruiting the 20,000 police officers.
Boris is going to be in the media virtually everyday almost unchallenged
I am very wary of Boris hard ball attitude to the EU. It is a high stakes gamble and no one can possibly tell who is going to cave in. The one thing is certain, on the 1st November the EU will either have to install a border or put in place alternative arrangements if we no deal
I cannot believe that even the EU would be so unwise to be seen putting a hard border in Ireland
Many on here are defending their entrenched views of how each side with react to this crisis but in truth no one on PB can say with any certainty how this will unfold.
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealing
This point is so overlooked. After sitting on the fence for decades we are now in play. The EU want us 100% in their sphere of influence and the USA in theirs.
What looks certain is that the fence sitting will not be allowed in the future so who is offering the best deal?
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?
Bugger all.
Just like nothing much happens due to there being a hard border for Income Tax, VAT, Corporation Tax, Abortion, Gay Marriage or whatever else you can think of.
Comments
Come the autumn, 2 scenarios, (a) Johnson allows himself to be forced into an extension into 2020, (b) Brexit GE.
If (b) Johnson wins or he loses.
If he wins he has the authority to pass the WA - which he will since he is not serious about No Deal. This current stuff is for show.
If he loses, we are into Ref2 territory, which probably ends with Remain.
I see no route to No Deal other than accidental. I give it a 10% probability. I'm therefore laying it on betfair at 3.5. That's even better than it looks because the market is for 2019 only. No Deal in 2020 is a winner.
I have it as a toss up between the other 2 end states, Brexit via the WA, or Remain. 45% each.
But no, let's adjust that to 60/30 in favour of the WA.
The 2016 Ref said Leave and I have to believe that we eventually will.
Or that the in-season Ladbrokes specials on Hamilton winning a lot had actually let me wager anything...
Fine.
A Government of Fuckwits it is then.
My reason was I was No Fixed Abode at the time - I assume Mr Glenn was also going through a less than perfect time in his life.
May simply was not a politician. How she survived so long to become the PM is a mystery.
IMHO Boris really does think the EU will blink and he has bet the farm on that. Some of his stupider followers seem to think he can go for a GE but as we discussed earlier there is no easy route to that - it would require opposition support and the price of that support would be an extension to A50 which would incinerate Boris' credibility as his do or die promise to leave on 31 October would be junked.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/harriss-debate-bounce-is-fading/
And Great Uncle Joe is getting feisty:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/454802-team-biden-fires-back-you-cant-let-people-say-bullshit-and-not-respond-to
Fireworks at the next debate.
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1154763940959793152
Support for much deeper integration and euro membership is a minority sport in this country but it is nevertheless a group of people who would more than fill Wembley Stadium. And they were indeed disenfranchised by the Referendum.
Imagine if they had got together and packed out Wembley and demanded that 3rd option - Leave Remain ... REMAIN & REJOICE.
Would David Cameron have had the balls to get up there on stage and face them down? Tell them they didn't matter? That he was only interested in fruits and loons and closet racists?
No way. He would have run a million miles. And yet that, effectively, is what he did from a position of shelter behind his desk.
It was rank cowardice.
100 grand a year for ex prime ministers to fulfill "their public role". Didn't we bung them enough cash with pensions, expenses and the redundo they get for being voted out on top of the 100+k a year they got just for turning up?
The establishment look after their own.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7273495/Nick-Clegg-claimed-113-000-public-duty-expenses-despite-1m-Facebook-role.html
https://twitter.com/JudiciaryUK/status/1154764198095798273
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
Boris asks for a general election
Corbyn and co insist on an A50 extension before voting for it.
Boris says no
VoNC in Boris
A GONU is formed.
How does that GONU avoid Boris winning the next election? What do they have to do to avoid Boris creating a pact with Nigel...
Remain and rejoice is a subset of remain.
Just as leave and EEA, leave and FTA, leave and WTO are all subsets of leave.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
Just as any version of remain is remain . . . whether it is a sceptical remain or lets rush headlong into the Euro remain.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2hM97kEKGME
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
Boris' plan is a falsehood. Either he doesn't intend to leave with no deal and his bluster is, er, bluster. Or he does and he wants to claim it's the EU's fault.
The latter might have weight if Boris had an alternative, or a plan to get something through the Commons. He doesn't. Maybe he will in the future, but so far I see no reason to change my opinion, namely that Boris is a moron.
...
Abolish Backstop Boris tells Merkel.
No Brexit it is then, unless he wins the autumn GE with a majority.
But I do agree with you about the election. It comes, one way or another, with an extension. And this will be a challenge for the Great Man.
Corbyn could well be "PM by Christmas". I think when he said so at Glasto in 2017 he did mean this year.
Slightly offended because surely Sir Christopher looks far wearier than I hope I did.
Equally does Boris actually listen to people who say No to him? I don't see much history of it..
Step 1 is to establish the EU as the enemy without. So he asks for something he knows they won't agree to (removing the backstop). When they refuse, he casts them as intransigent and prepares for no deal.
This sets up step 2, where he establishes parliament as the enemy within, by presenting them with no deal, which they will feel obliged to block in order to prevent chaos.
Most likely they "force" him into an election, where he can pose as defending the will of the people against both sets of enemies.
It's not very subtle but it may be effective.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b3NyGs_LYus
I do not, however, disregard that he is also full of shit.
Leave. Repeat Leave. JFDI.
Leave in a calm orderly adult fashion, respecting the Union and the GFA.
Remain.
REMAIN & REJOICE.
By preference voting - e.g. AV.
Whatever won would then have been a clear and deliverable choice.
But no, Cameron knew best ...
We leave or we remain. How we leave or how we remain is then a matter for Parliament.
An important part of therapy is owning up to reality. Maybe you can form "Numbskull Leavers Not-So Anonymous" where you can applaud each other for admitting you are extraordinarily politically and geopolitically dumb.
If Commons votes against No Deal
What happens?
We have to ask for an extension? But then what if the EU refuses extension.
I think Halloween no-deal Brexit is still very likely
I seem to remember Theresa May was viewed as a Machiavellian genius, moving her colleagues around the chess board like mere pawns in accordance with her secret master plan. But in the end it turned out she'd been absolutely clueless all along.
Is there any reason to think things are any different with Johnson?
If the EU insists on getting the backstop and we go to no deal then they get: no backstop, no money, disruption and a hard Irish border.
If the EU compromises they get: no backstop, lots of money, no disruption and an invisible Irish border.
There is no logical reason not to compromise.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-48934706
What looks certain is that the fence sitting will not be allowed in the future so who is offering the best deal?
Has the commons not voted against No Deal yet? Did they get too frit or something.
They might get frit again.
Halloween No-deal Brexit Nailed On
the whole thing is simply a crass negotiating ploy by people who should know better
1) We want a Second Referendum.
2) We're going to win it this time.
3) If we don't there'll be a third vote in 2025.
Whereas the SNP position is:
1) We want a Second Referendum.
2) We're going to win it this time.
3) If we don't there'll be a third vote in 2025.
I'm going to be cynical and then downright heretical for a moment. First the cynical bit - everybody supports democracy but only when it works for them. Anyone can shout to the roof tops about democracy and the democratic deficit when they have the votes and the voters on their side - that's why parties run to the voters these days because it's so much easier and quicker than have the voters run to you.
Now, the heretical - majorities aren't always right. Indeed, I define a majority as the largest group of people wrong about any given issue at any given time. Does majoritarian rule work in everyone's interests or simply in the interests of that majority. Why work out a principle or an ideology - let's just see what most people like and follow that. Why choose the candidate who would be the best Prime Minister - why not just choose the one everybody likes? Churchill was right about democracy but the truth now is policy is dictated by majorities delivered by polls organised by sampling and focus groups. What do the key group of swing voters actually want - let's offer them that and they might come our way? What do minority groups want - who cares?
We would face some disruption but the worst of it will be up front, once time goes on we'll get used to our lives in our new paradigm.
Boris is going to be in the media virtually everyday almost unchallenged
I am very wary of Boris hard ball attitude to the EU. It is a high stakes gamble and no one can possibly tell who is going to cave in. The one thing is certain, on the 1st November the EU will either have to install a border or put in place alternative arrangements if we no deal
I cannot believe that even the EU would be so unwise to be seen putting a hard border in Ireland
Many on here are defending their entrenched views of how each side with react to this crisis but in truth no one on PB can say with any certainty how this will unfold.
I for one am keeping an open mind
Just like nothing much happens due to there being a hard border for Income Tax, VAT, Corporation Tax, Abortion, Gay Marriage or whatever else you can think of.