Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
The country won't implode. We can just get on with erecting a hard Irish border if necessary since that's what the Irish have chosen to have due to not compromising, we will have billions to spend on whatever we want and we will be free to control our own destiny. Nothing scary in any of that.
We would face some disruption but the worst of it will be up front, once time goes on we'll get used to our lives in our new paradigm.
We will not have billions to spend. £33 billion (we've already handed over some of the money) is a rounding error compared to the higher borrowing costs, reduced tax take and lower inward investment No Deal will lead to. The money that would have been sent to Brussels will be spent on plugging gaps in current spending commitments.
Ooh, what a surprise! A Guardian hit-piece on Dominic Cummings, that could mostly have been written three years ago after he masterminded the Vote Leave campaign.
The Vote Leave campaign is one of the main reasons that Brexit has been a complete car crash for the last three years. Nigel Farage has far more political nous than Dominic Cummings.
The Vote Leave campaign operates under the parameters of the question and legislation they were given by the 2015 Parliament. It’s not a campaigner’s fault that Parliament left the question so open-ended.
Vote Leave came up with a very clear, clean and straightforward way of leaving. Lets hope we finally do it now.
You sure about that? This was their laughable 'plan':
Good plan. Better than what Theresa May did, shame she spurned it.
It's a fantasy. Where does Article 50 and the EU27 fit into this plan?
We shouldn't have invoked Article 50 for a couple of years until we were talking on an equal playing field with the EU27, as Vote Leave said.
And it should have been cross party. It's become a party political issue now. Staying out of the EU now requires keeping the Tories in power. For ever.
Spooky. This is my favourite personal coincidence. I once inexplicably forgot my cashpoint PIN; however, the friend I was with was able to tell me it because he'd looked over my shoulder and memorized it on a previous occasion (for some strange reason). Anyway, with cash in hand we went to the pub. As we sat down with our drinks 'Roxanne' by The Police was playing on the jukebox. The disc number/track number was also being displayed. It was the same number as my PIN.
Wow. And ditto for AM's one. Co-incidences are (usually) rather nice affairs.
My most recent one (which was nice in a way) was when I was walking along a quiet street just off Piccadilly and apropos of nothing at all I started thinking about Toby Young. Not something I do a great deal of, I must stress, otherwise what then happened would not class as remotely amazing. Because what did happen, and it was literally maybe 60 seconds after I began thinking of him, was that Toby Young stepped out of a doorway a few yards from me, some sort of commercial premises I think, looked around quickly, like he was unsure about something, and then strode briskly off. It was as if I had 'summoned' him.
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?
Bugger all.
Just like nothing much happens due to there being a hard border for Income Tax, VAT, Corporation Tax, Abortion, Gay Marriage or whatever else you can think of.
I just wish people could somehow be made responsible for such wild and reckless speculation.
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?
Bugger all.
Just like nothing much happens due to there being a hard border for Income Tax, VAT, Corporation Tax, Abortion, Gay Marriage or whatever else you can think of.
Do you know what percentage of Northern Ireland's export market the Republic of Ireland comprises?
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?
Bugger all.
Just like nothing much happens due to there being a hard border for Income Tax, VAT, Corporation Tax, Abortion, Gay Marriage or whatever else you can think of.
Nah, the softest of soft borders is only in play because of British goodwill.
The IRA might return; that's a minus point - But at least they won't get to co-govern NI anymore; that's a bonus
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
The country won't implode. We can just get on with erecting a hard Irish border if necessary since that's what the Irish have chosen to have due to not compromising, we will have billions to spend on whatever we want and we will be free to control our own destiny. Nothing scary in any of that.
We would face some disruption but the worst of it will be up front, once time goes on we'll get used to our lives in our new paradigm.
We will not have billions to spend. £33 billion (we've already handed over some of the money) is a rounding error compared to the higher borrowing costs, reduced tax take and lower inward investment No Deal will lead to. The money that would have been sent to Brussels will be spent on plugging gaps in current spending commitments.
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?
Who is imposing it? And whose army will protect it?
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
The country won't implode. We can just get on with erecting a hard Irish border if necessary since that's what the Irish have chosen to have due to not compromising, we will have billions to spend on whatever we want and we will be free to control our own destiny. Nothing scary in any of that.
We would face some disruption but the worst of it will be up front, once time goes on we'll get used to our lives in our new paradigm.
We will not have billions to spend. £33 billion (we've already handed over some of the money) is a rounding error compared to the higher borrowing costs, reduced tax take and lower inward investment No Deal will lead to. The money that would have been sent to Brussels will be spent on plugging gaps in current spending commitments.
you forgot about the 5 million unemployed
I doubt that will happen. There will be jobs as gaps currently taken by EU workers will have to be filled. The issue is much more about how much they will pay - and how much it will cost the UK government. Social care is an obvious example.
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
The country won't implode. We can just get on with erecting a hard Irish border if necessary since that's what the Irish have chosen to have due to not compromising, we will have billions to spend on whatever we want and we will be free to control our own destiny. Nothing scary in any of that.
We would face some disruption but the worst of it will be up front, once time goes on we'll get used to our lives in our new paradigm.
I've read that rat's meat tastes rather like chicken.
Why is every non-standard food animal described as tasting like chicken??
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
The country won't implode. We can just get on with erecting a hard Irish border if necessary since that's what the Irish have chosen to have due to not compromising, we will have billions to spend on whatever we want and we will be free to control our own destiny. Nothing scary in any of that.
We would face some disruption but the worst of it will be up front, once time goes on we'll get used to our lives in our new paradigm.
I've read that rat's meat tastes rather like chicken.
Snow cancels Tour de France in mid race. Snow ploughs out
Crazy weather
Bloody typical of the french...a bit of bad weather and they wave the white flag ;-) if that had been the tour of yorkshire, they would still be going...each with a set of inflatable armbands on for the section which require wading through a newly formed lake.
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealing
This point is so overlooked. After sitting on the fence for decades we are now in play. The EU want us 100% in their sphere of influence and the USA in theirs.
What looks certain is that the fence sitting will not be allowed in the future so who is offering the best deal?
The Russian Federation?
An offer you can’t refuse.
If the UK starts to implode Johnson should resign and propose that he gives way to a GNU led by Ken Clarke ... or Rachel Johnson, whose views on EU membership at least seem consistent.
It pains me to say it but Brussels democracy with PR and several other checks and balances beats Whitehall so-called democracy with FPTP. With extra democratic features like a directly-elected EU executive and senate, what's not to like?
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
The country won't implode. We can just get on with erecting a hard Irish border if necessary since that's what the Irish have chosen to have due to not compromising, we will have billions to spend on whatever we want and we will be free to control our own destiny. Nothing scary in any of that.
We would face some disruption but the worst of it will be up front, once time goes on we'll get used to our lives in our new paradigm.
I've read that rat's meat tastes rather like chicken.
Why is every non-standard food animal described as tasting like chicken??
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
The country won't implode. We can just get on with erecting a hard Irish border if necessary since that's what the Irish have chosen to have due to not compromising, we will have billions to spend on whatever we want and we will be free to control our own destiny. Nothing scary in any of that.
We would face some disruption but the worst of it will be up front, once time goes on we'll get used to our lives in our new paradigm.
I've read that rat's meat tastes rather like chicken.
Is that the chlorinated or non-chlorinated version?
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealing
This point is so overlooked. After sitting on the fence for decades we are now in play. The EU want us 100% in their sphere of influence and the USA in theirs.
What looks certain is that the fence sitting will not be allowed in the future so who is offering the best deal?
The Russian Federation?
An offer you can’t refuse.
If the UK starts to implode Johnson should resign and propose that he gives way to a GNU led by Ken Clarke ... or Rachel Johnson, whose views on EU membership at least seem consistent.
It pains me to say it but Brussels democracy with PR and several other checks and balances beats Whitehall so-called democracy with FPTP. With extra democratic features like a directly-elected EU executive and senate, what's not to like?
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?
Bugger all.
Just like nothing much happens due to there being a hard border for Income Tax, VAT, Corporation Tax, Abortion, Gay Marriage or whatever else you can think of.
Do you know what percentage of Northern Ireland's export market the Republic of Ireland comprises?
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealing
This point is so overlooked. After sitting on the fence for decades we are now in play. The EU want us 100% in their sphere of influence and the USA in theirs.
What looks certain is that the fence sitting will not be allowed in the future so who is offering the best deal?
The Russian Federation?
An offer you can’t refuse.
If the UK starts to implode Johnson should resign and propose that he gives way to a GNU led by Ken Clarke ... or Rachel Johnson, whose views on EU membership at least seem consistent.
It pains me to say it but Brussels democracy with PR and several other checks and balances beats Whitehall so-called democracy with FPTP. With extra democratic features like a directly-elected EU executive and senate, what's not to like?
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealing
This point is so overlooked. After sitting on the fence for decades we are now in play. The EU want us 100% in their sphere of influence and the USA in theirs.
What looks certain is that the fence sitting will not be allowed in the future so who is offering the best deal?
The Russian Federation?
An offer you can’t refuse.
If the UK starts to implode Johnson should resign and propose that he gives way to a GNU led by Ken Clarke ... or Rachel Johnson, whose views on EU membership at least seem consistent.
It pains me to say it but Brussels democracy with PR and several other checks and balances beats Whitehall so-called democracy with FPTP. With extra democratic features like a directly-elected EU executive and senate, what's not to like?
Lol - "extra democratic features"
This EU democracy is better than UK democracy thing has been done.
Personaly I think those on the EU side are just not that intelligent.
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealing
This point is so overlooked. After sitting on the fence for decades we are now in play. The EU want us 100% in their sphere of influence and the USA in theirs.
What looks certain is that the fence sitting will not be allowed in the future so who is offering the best deal?
The Russian Federation?
An offer you can’t refuse.
If the UK starts to implode Johnson should resign and propose that he gives way to a GNU led by Ken Clarke ... or Rachel Johnson, whose views on EU membership at least seem consistent.
It pains me to say it but Brussels democracy with PR and several other checks and balances beats Whitehall so-called democracy with FPTP. With extra democratic features like a directly-elected EU executive and senate, what's not to like?
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealing
This point is so overlooked. After sitting on the fence for decades we are now in play. The EU want us 100% in their sphere of influence and the USA in theirs.
What looks certain is that the fence sitting will not be allowed in the future so who is offering the best deal?
The Russian Federation?
An offer you can’t refuse.
If the UK starts to implode Johnson should resign and propose that he gives way to a GNU led by Ken Clarke ... or Rachel Johnson, whose views on EU membership at least seem consistent.
It pains me to say it but Brussels democracy with PR and several other checks and balances beats Whitehall so-called democracy with FPTP. With extra democratic features like a directly-elected EU executive and senate, what's not to like?
Governed by the likes of Junker? No thanks.
You do realise he's going?
To be replaced by someone even less elected than he was.
Who comes and goes is irrelevant, how we elect them is what matters.
Okay I've got a commons procedural question (annoyingly I've forgotten the name of the guy who wrote down our unwritten constitution)
If Commons votes against No Deal
What happens?
We have to ask for an extension? But then what if the EU refuses extension.
I think Halloween no-deal Brexit is still very likely
The EU can refuse an extension, and the only way around that would be for us to revoke.
Okay,
Has the commons not voted against No Deal yet? Did they get too frit or something.
They might get frit again.
Halloween No-deal Brexit Nailed On
The HOC cannot stop no deal. Legislation has to be enabled and there lies the problem
Legislation is at the behest of HMG unless the mps can find a way round it which is why Grieve and others are desperately trying
If the HOC cannot stop no deal - then how come they keep banging on about how they're going to stop no deal. Must be some very well thumbed Erskine May's kicking about.
Johnson is preparing for a populist election campaign in the Autumn. Step 1 is to establish the EU as the enemy without. So he asks for something he knows they won't agree to (removing the backstop). When they refuse, he casts them as intransigent and prepares for no deal. This sets up step 2, where he establishes parliament as the enemy within, by presenting them with no deal, which they will feel obliged to block in order to prevent chaos. Most likely they "force" him into an election, where he can pose as defending the will of the people against both sets of enemies. It's not very subtle but it may be effective.
And in the meantime the opposition has gone on holiday giving Boris and his cabinet six weeks to firm up their GE manifesto and start recruiting the 20,000 police officers.
Boris is going to be in the media virtually everyday almost unchallenged
I am very wary of Boris hard ball attitude to the EU. It is a high stakes gamble and no one can possibly tell who is going to cave in. The one thing is certain, on the 1st November the EU will either have to install a border or put in place alternative arrangements if we no deal
I cannot believe that even the EU would be so unwise to be seen putting a hard border in Ireland
Many on here are defending their entrenched views of how each side with react to this crisis but in truth no one on PB can say with any certainty how this will unfold.
I for one am keeping an open mind
Spending billions to recruit the 20,000 policemen that Johnson and co voted to do away with is one hell of a thing, isn't it?
If you are interested in what is likely to happen when we crash out, this is very good. Tony Connelly is probably the best-informed Irish journalist there is when it comes to Brexit:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
Let's get one thing straight. If the WA is not passed [ even an amended one ], there will be no FTA....oh, I forgot they need us more than we need them.
Depends if the EU wishes to keep a hard Irish border . . . forever.
Once we've exited cleanly without folding on the backstop an FTA will be the best way for them to deal with the Irish issue.
Just as leave and EEA, leave and FTA, leave and WTO are all subsets of leave.
But with hindsight, a more granular choice in 2016 might have been better.
Leave. Repeat Leave. JFDI. Leave in a calm orderly adult fashion, respecting the Union and the GFA. Remain. REMAIN & REJOICE.
By preference voting - e.g. AV.
Whatever won would then have been a clear and deliverable choice.
But no, Cameron knew best ...
Parliament not Cameron chose the question and anything more than a binary choice would have led to screams of outrage that their particular granular choice wasn't an option.
We leave or we remain. How we leave or how we remain is then a matter for Parliament.
Remaining is simple, but there are loads of flavours of Leave. As illustrated by the ERG rejecting Mrs May's version.
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealing
This point is so overlooked. After sitting on the fence for decades we are now in play. The EU want us 100% in their sphere of influence and the USA in theirs.
What looks certain is that the fence sitting will not be allowed in the future so who is offering the best deal?
I can't see Trump adding four new Democrat states!
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealing
This point is so overlooked. After sitting on the fence for decades we are now in play. The EU want us 100% in their sphere of influence and the USA in theirs.
What looks certain is that the fence sitting will not be allowed in the future so who is offering the best deal?
The Russian Federation?
An offer you can’t refuse.
If the UK starts to implode Johnson should resign and propose that he gives way to a GNU led by Ken Clarke ... or Rachel Johnson, whose views on EU membership at least seem consistent.
It pains me to say it but Brussels democracy with PR and several other checks and balances beats Whitehall so-called democracy with FPTP. With extra democratic features like a directly-elected EU executive and senate, what's not to like?
Lol - "extra democratic features"
This EU democracy is better than UK democracy thing has been done.
Personaly I think those on the EU side are just not that intelligent.
And the fact most FPTP seats can be won by a monkey with the right coloured rosette is a reason why UK democracy is better?
Johnson is preparing for a populist election campaign in the Autumn. Step 1 is to establish the EU as the enemy without. So he asks for something he knows they won't agree to (removing the backstop). When they refuse, he casts them as intransigent and prepares for no deal. This sets up step 2, where he establishes parliament as the enemy within, by presenting them with no deal, which they will feel obliged to block in order to prevent chaos. Most likely they "force" him into an election, where he can pose as defending the will of the people against both sets of enemies. It's not very subtle but it may be effective.
It could absolutely be this. I'm starting to think so. And I hope so because, boy, do I want that 'Brexit' election. What a mouthwatering prospect.
But I'm not ready yet to ditch the more prosaic alternative. Johnson sells out the ERG and agrees an extension into 2020, gambling (successfully) that they won't bring him down. He then makes a serious effort to pass the WA.
All these "principled" resignations are from people who served under "No deal is better than a bad deal" May for years.
Why is no deal 2.5 years into the 2 year window of Article 50 so unacceptable, but it was acceptable to state as your option for years?
Or was it just on an assumption that May was lying to everyone and would never follow through whereas Boris might be telling the truth?
Horribly, your latter hypothesis might be correct. A perhaps more subtle formulation was that they honestly believed that something would happen to render no-deal unnecessary. This was at best careless and at worst blind stupidity.
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
Trump will offer us 51st State - thatll really get them squealing
This point is so overlooked. After sitting on the fence for decades we are now in play. The EU want us 100% in their sphere of influence and the USA in theirs.
What looks certain is that the fence sitting will not be allowed in the future so who is offering the best deal?
The Russian Federation?
An offer you can’t refuse.
If the UK starts to implode Johnson should resign and propose that he gives way to a GNU led by Ken Clarke ... or Rachel Johnson, whose views on EU membership at least seem consistent.
It pains me to say it but Brussels democracy with PR and several other checks and balances beats Whitehall so-called democracy with FPTP. With extra democratic features like a directly-elected EU executive and senate, what's not to like?
Lol - "extra democratic features"
This EU democracy is better than UK democracy thing has been done.
Personaly I think those on the EU side are just not that intelligent.
And the fact most FPTP seats can be won by a monkey with the right coloured rosette is a reason why UK democracy is better?
The FPTP system is a neutral in this argument. Personally I'm a party list kind of guy.
An appointed Executive is a massive minus on the EU side.
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?
Bugger all.
Just like nothing much happens due to there being a hard border for Income Tax, VAT, Corporation Tax, Abortion, Gay Marriage or whatever else you can think of.
Do you know what percentage of Northern Ireland's export market the Republic of Ireland comprises?
5% of GDP approximately.
About 1/3rd of what goes to Great Britain.
Good googling!!
35% of all Northern Irish foreign exports go to the Republic of Ireland. That's a lot of jobs.
Northern Ireland is already heavily subsidised. No Deal Brexit means even more subsidies at a time when the UK's overall GDP will be adversely affected. So, there's one place the money we would have sent to Brussels will be spent.
Excellent results for the Lib Dems. So much for the Boris bounce. He's done nothing so far that suggests he's less of a buffoon than he was a week ago and those who follow politics more closely and aren't dyed in the wool Brexiteers are hardly likely to be impressed with the Addams Family he's lined up*
* I used that description of them before Peter Brookes cartoon. The connection was so obvious I'm not boasting just saying I'm not plagiarising
Johnson is preparing for a populist election campaign in the Autumn. Step 1 is to establish the EU as the enemy without. So he asks for something he knows they won't agree to (removing the backstop). When they refuse, he casts them as intransigent and prepares for no deal. This sets up step 2, where he establishes parliament as the enemy within, by presenting them with no deal, which they will feel obliged to block in order to prevent chaos. Most likely they "force" him into an election, where he can pose as defending the will of the people against both sets of enemies. It's not very subtle but it may be effective.
And in the meantime the opposition has gone on holiday giving Boris and his cabinet six weeks to firm up their GE manifesto and start recruiting the 20,000 police officers.
Boris is going to be in the media virtually everyday almost unchallenged
I am very wary of Boris hard ball attitude to the EU. It is a high stakes gamble and no one can possibly tell who is going to cave in. The one thing is certain, on the 1st November the EU will either have to install a border or put in place alternative arrangements if we no deal
I cannot believe that even the EU would be so unwise to be seen putting a hard border in Ireland
Many on here are defending their entrenched views of how each side with react to this crisis but in truth no one on PB can say with any certainty how this will unfold.
I for one am keeping an open mind
Spending billions to recruit the 20,000 policemen that Johnson and co voted to do away with is one hell of a thing, isn't it?
If you are interested in what is likely to happen when we crash out, this is very good. Tony Connelly is probably the best-informed Irish journalist there is when it comes to Brexit:
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?
Bugger all.
Just like nothing much happens due to there being a hard border for Income Tax, VAT, Corporation Tax, Abortion, Gay Marriage or whatever else you can think of.
Do you know what percentage of Northern Ireland's export market the Republic of Ireland comprises?
5% of GDP approximately.
About 1/3rd of what goes to Great Britain.
Good googling!!
35% of all Northern Irish foreign exports go to the Republic of Ireland. That's a lot of jobs.
Northern Ireland is already heavily subsidised. No Deal Brexit means even more subsidies at a time when the UK's overall GDP will be adversely affected. So, there's one place the money we would have sent to Brussels will be spent.
Okay I've got a commons procedural question (annoyingly I've forgotten the name of the guy who wrote down our unwritten constitution)
If Commons votes against No Deal
What happens?
We have to ask for an extension? But then what if the EU refuses extension.
I think Halloween no-deal Brexit is still very likely
The EU can refuse an extension, and the only way around that would be for us to revoke.
Okay,
Has the commons not voted against No Deal yet? Did they get too frit or something.
They might get frit again.
Halloween No-deal Brexit Nailed On
The HOC cannot stop no deal. Legislation has to be enabled and there lies the problem
Legislation is at the behest of HMG unless the mps can find a way round it which is why Grieve and others are desperately trying
If the HOC cannot stop no deal - then how come they keep banging on about how they're going to stop no deal. Must be some very well thumbed Erskine May's kicking about.
A50 created the no deal end game passed by 498 current mps who clearly did not know what they were doing.
Johnson is preparing for a populist election campaign in the Autumn. Step 1 is to establish the EU as the enemy without. So he asks for something he knows they won't agree to (removing the backstop). When they refuse, he casts them as intransigent and prepares for no deal. This sets up step 2, where he establishes parliament as the enemy within, by presenting them with no deal, which they will feel obliged to block in order to prevent chaos. Most likely they "force" him into an election, where he can pose as defending the will of the people against both sets of enemies. It's not very subtle but it may be effective.
And in the meantime the opposition has gone on holiday giving Boris and his cabinet six weeks to firm up their GE manifesto and start recruiting the 20,000 police officers.
Boris is going to be in the media virtually everyday almost unchallenged
I am very wary of Boris hard ball attitude to the EU. It is a high stakes gamble and no one can possibly tell who is going to cave in. The one thing is certain, on the 1st November the EU will either have to install a border or put in place alternative arrangements if we no deal
I cannot believe that even the EU would be so unwise to be seen putting a hard border in Ireland
Many on here are defending their entrenched views of how each side with react to this crisis but in truth no one on PB can say with any certainty how this will unfold.
I for one am keeping an open mind
Spending billions to recruit the 20,000 policemen that Johnson and co voted to do away with is one hell of a thing, isn't it?
If you are interested in what is likely to happen when we crash out, this is very good. Tony Connelly is probably the best-informed Irish journalist there is when it comes to Brexit:
So very little if we crash out and very little reason to have the backstop.
If we crash out they intend to use solutions other than the backstop to try and keep an open border, but if we suggest that is what we should do then that's outrageous . . . and they don't want to "pollute" the Westminster debate?
F##k off, they're negotiating in bad faith already. Backstop is dead, lets see if they want a managed alternative or a crash out alternative.
Johnson is preparing for a populist election campaign in the Autumn. Step 1 is to establish the EU as the enemy without. So he asks for something he knows they won't agree to (removing the backstop). When they refuse, he casts them as intransigent and prepares for no deal. This sets up step 2, where he establishes parliament as the enemy within, by presenting them with no deal, which they will feel obliged to block in order to prevent chaos. Most likely they "force" him into an election, where he can pose as defending the will of the people against both sets of enemies. It's not very subtle but it may be effective.
And in the meantime the opposition has gone on holiday giving Boris and his cabinet six weeks to firm up their GE manifesto and start recruiting the 20,000 police officers.
Boris is going to be in the media virtually everyday almost unchallenged
I am very wary of Boris hard ball attitude to the EU. It is a high stakes gamble and no one can possibly tell who is going to cave in. The one thing is certain, on the 1st November the EU will either have to install a border or put in place alternative arrangements if we no deal
I cannot believe that even the EU would be so unwise to be seen putting a hard border in Ireland
Many on here are defending their entrenched views of how each side with react to this crisis but in truth no one on PB can say with any certainty how this will unfold.
I for one am keeping an open mind
Spending billions to recruit the 20,000 policemen that Johnson and co voted to do away with is one hell of a thing, isn't it?
If you are interested in what is likely to happen when we crash out, this is very good. Tony Connelly is probably the best-informed Irish journalist there is when it comes to Brexit:
Yes and his main point is that a border is not erected the day after no deal brexit. It will be an iterative process over a lengthy time period to ensure as little disruption as possible. But what is true is that immediately after no deal there will be no change at the Irish border.
I do not support crashing out but I do support the 20,000 police officers now we have addressed the financial crisis of 2008
As I said no amount of varying political views will change my open mind to what may happen.
I just do not know
This is however the point. If it looks as though we will crash out without a Deal how many Conservative MPs will put country before Party and join an opposition VONC to halt the No Deal?
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?
Bugger all.
Just like nothing much happens due to there being a hard border for Income Tax, VAT, Corporation Tax, Abortion, Gay Marriage or whatever else you can think of.
Do you know what percentage of Northern Ireland's export market the Republic of Ireland comprises?
5% of GDP approximately.
About 1/3rd of what goes to Great Britain.
Good googling!!
35% of all Northern Irish foreign exports go to the Republic of Ireland. That's a lot of jobs.
Northern Ireland is already heavily subsidised. No Deal Brexit means even more subsidies at a time when the UK's overall GDP will be adversely affected. So, there's one place the money we would have sent to Brussels will be spent.
Interesting that you phrased it as 35% of "foreign exports". The reality is that NI's exports to Great Britain is three times that, or in other words NI's exports to Great Britain is essentially 100% of foreign exports.
So if its to be a No Deal then an open border on the Irish Sea with Great Britain makes more sense than an open border with the Republic who created this mess by insisting on the backstop. As the DUP know.
I do not support crashing out but I do support the 20,000 police officers now we have addressed the financial crisis of 2008
As I said no amount of varying political views will change my open mind to what may happen.
I just do not know
This is however the point. If it looks as though we will crash out without a Deal how many Conservative MPs will put country before Party and join an opposition VONC to halt the No Deal?
But how does it stop the no deal.
You have to pass legislation and it is more than possible Boris will prempt it by calling a GE resulting in several conservative mps being deselected for it including Grieve
Inching towards a manifesto campaigning for Remain.
"Labour’s manifesto for an election is being drafted already and is likely to promise another referendum on EU membership with the party campaigning for remain,"
"Until now, Labour has been wary of backing remain because of the risk of alienating pro-Brexit voters in its traditional heartlands in northern and central England. But recent party research suggest the losses would be far fewer than previously feared, according to one person involved in the process."
Johnson is preparing for a populist election campaign in the Autumn. Step 1 is to establish the EU as the enemy without. So he asks for something he knows they won't agree to (removing the backstop). When they refuse, he casts them as intransigent and prepares for no deal. This sets up step 2, where he establishes parliament as the enemy within, by presenting them with no deal, which they will feel obliged to block in order to prevent chaos. Most likely they "force" him into an election, where he can pose as defending the will of the people against both sets of enemies. It's not very subtle but it may be effective.
And in the meantime the opposition has gone on holiday giving Boris and his cabinet six weeks to firm up their GE manifesto and start recruiting the 20,000 police officers.
Boris is going to be in the media virtually everyday almost unchallenged
I am very wary of Boris hard ball attitude to the EU. It is a high stakes gamble and no one can possibly tell who is going to cave in. The one thing is certain, on the 1st November the EU will either have to install a border or put in place alternative arrangements if we no deal
I cannot believe that even the EU would be so unwise to be seen putting a hard border in Ireland
Many on here are defending their entrenched views of how each side with react to this crisis but in truth no one on PB can say with any certainty how this will unfold.
I for one am keeping an open mind
Spending billions to recruit the 20,000 policemen that Johnson and co voted to do away with is one hell of a thing, isn't it?
If you are interested in what is likely to happen when we crash out, this is very good. Tony Connelly is probably the best-informed Irish journalist there is when it comes to Brexit:
Yes and his main point is that a border is not erected the day after no deal brexit. It will be an iterative process over a lengthy time period to ensure as little disruption as possible. But what is true is that immediately after no deal there will be no change at the Irish border.
Yep, but it also explains why a hard border will become necessary. Fir the UK economy as a whole, of course, the Irish border is inconsequential. At the frontier crossings that are actually important to the UK economy - the ones at sea and air borders - the hard border will kick in immediately.
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?
Bugger all.
Just like nothing much happens due to there being a hard border for Income Tax, VAT, Corporation Tax, Abortion, Gay Marriage or whatever else you can think of.
Do you know what percentage of Northern Ireland's export market the Republic of Ireland comprises?
5% of GDP approximately.
About 1/3rd of what goes to Great Britain.
Good googling!!
35% of all Northern Irish foreign exports go to the Republic of Ireland. That's a lot of jobs.
Northern Ireland is already heavily subsidised. No Deal Brexit means even more subsidies at a time when the UK's overall GDP will be adversely affected. So, there's one place the money we would have sent to Brussels will be spent.
Interesting that you phrased it as 35% of "foreign exports". The reality is that NI's exports to Great Britain is three times that, or in other words NI's exports to Great Britain is essentially 100% of foreign exports.
So if its to be a No Deal then an open border on the Irish Sea with Great Britain makes more sense than an open border with the Republic who created this mess by insisting on the backstop. As the DUP know.
That makes absolutely no sense at all. The Republic of Ireland is a foreign country. It is not the UK. Of course Northern Irish exports to it are foreign exports.
If it is to be No Deal, the UK will find itself surrounded by a hard border and with no possibility of doing a free trade deal with either of its two biggest export markets.
Inching towards a manifesto campaigning for Remain.
"Labour’s manifesto for an election is being drafted already and is likely to promise another referendum on EU membership with the party campaigning for remain,"
"Until now, Labour has been wary of backing remain because of the risk of alienating pro-Brexit voters in its traditional heartlands in northern and central England. But recent party research suggest the losses would be far fewer than previously feared, according to one person involved in the process."
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?
Bugger all.
Just like nothing much happens due to there being a hard border for Income Tax, VAT, Corporation Tax, Abortion, Gay Marriage or whatever else you can think of.
Do you know what percentage of Northern Ireland's export market the Republic of Ireland comprises?
5% of GDP approximately.
About 1/3rd of what goes to Great Britain.
Good googling!!
35% of all Northern Irish foreign exports go to the Republic of Ireland. That's a lot of jobs.
Northern Ireland is already heavily subsidised. No Deal Brexit means even more subsidies at a time when the UK's overall GDP will be adversely affected. So, there's one place the money we would have sent to Brussels will be spent.
5% of NI GDP puts it into perspective though.
That is, of course, the same share of GDP as exports from the UK to the Commonwealth were in 1973.
Are exports just 15% of Northern Ireland GDP? For the UK as a whole, they're 26% (IIRC). It's possible, as the public sector is quite big in Northern Ireland, but it seems a little on the low side.
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?
the whole thing is simply a crass negotiating ploy by people who should know better
Alan, Alan now now.
We could strike up some kind of a bet but it would a) be and remain hypothetical; and b) be in very bad taste.
Not that gallows humour has ever been an unknown quantity in the six counties.
actually im still laughing at that arse Varadkar
I was speaking with daughters Irish boyfriend who wanted to have a rant about the btitish losing the plot so I asked him why Leo had joined the French Commonealth rather then the britsih one, he didnt know what to say
So its no longer Leo but Frank O'Phoney and a packet of Gaulloises.
I have literally this morning read a section in a copy editing book by the head of copy editing at Random House, saying you must never have two spaces after a full stop.
64% of Scottish Leave voters still oppose Scottish independence even if 51% of Scottish Remain voters now back it, putting No to Scottish independence still narrowly ahead despite Brexit
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I too look forward to No Deal Brexit. It is the only way to once and for all prove to you that the whole enterprise was a gargantuan error of judgement. It will also prove that we had more to lose than the EU27.
When Boris Johnson see the country implode on his watch he will once again be a European Federalist and will be begging the 27 to allow us back in on inferior terms to those we currently enjoy.
The country won't implode. We can just get on with erecting a hard Irish border if necessary since that's what the Irish have chosen to have due to not compromising, we will have billions to spend on whatever we want and we will be free to control our own destiny. Nothing scary in any of that.
We would face some disruption but the worst of it will be up front, once time goes on we'll get used to our lives in our new paradigm.
We will not have billions to spend. £33 billion (we've already handed over some of the money) is a rounding error compared to the higher borrowing costs, reduced tax take and lower inward investment No Deal will lead to. The money that would have been sent to Brussels will be spent on plugging gaps in current spending commitments.
you forgot about the 5 million unemployed
I doubt that will happen. There will be jobs as gaps currently taken by EU workers will have to be filled. The issue is much more about how much they will pay - and how much it will cost the UK government. Social care is an obvious example.
I'd take the headbangers on and paint them as just that, headbangers. If anyone is in a position to do that then Boris is.
I don't think it would be that difficult to persuade people of the clear blue sea between Brexiteers who believe in trade, sovereignty and a liberal immigration system and flag-waving purists like Farage and Bridgen who just want to stick two fingers up at foreigners.
I have literally this morning read a section in a copy editing book by the head of copy editing at Random House, saying you must never have two spaces after a full stop.
The point is, that 5% of GDP is lost along with a further percentage of GDP that is dependent on those Irish exports. And if those exporters go out of business, any other economic activity they do will also be lost. UK exports won't make up for any of it.
The key takeaway is while Ireland is screwed by No Deal, Northern Ireland, which still is part of the UK, is screwed worse by factors. I realise that Brexiteers don't care tuppence for the fate of their supposed fellow country people
Now, I get that for longer distances (i.e. miles). But is he really going to talk about three feet, rather than a meter? Or to talk in inches rather than centimeters? And for millimeters, how are people supposed to measure things - fractions of inches?
And, for a bottle of wine - what is the proper imperial measurement for that?
And, and, if we're going imperial, are we going to US imperial measurements or our own?
We use a funny, and very British mix, of imperial and metric. I'm comfortable ordering a pint of beer or milk. But I couldn't tell you how much a quart was. Or have any sensible way of estimating a eighth of an inch. And as far as temperatures go, while I know what 70 degrees fareheit feels like, I have no idea if 40 degrees is above or below freezing.
Inching towards a manifesto campaigning for Remain.
"Labour’s manifesto for an election is being drafted already and is likely to promise another referendum on EU membership with the party campaigning for remain,"
"Until now, Labour has been wary of backing remain because of the risk of alienating pro-Brexit voters in its traditional heartlands in northern and central England. But recent party research suggest the losses would be far fewer than previously feared, according to one person involved in the process."
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?
Bugger all.
Just like nothing much happens due to there being a hard border for Income Tax, VAT, Corporation Tax, Abortion, Gay Marriage or whatever else you can think of.
Do you know what percentage of Northern Ireland's export market the Republic of Ireland comprises?
5% of GDP approximately.
About 1/3rd of what goes to Great Britain.
Good googling!!
35% of all Northern Irish foreign exports go to the Republic of Ireland. That's a lot of jobs.
Northern Ireland is already heavily subsidised. No Deal Brexit means even more subsidies at a time when the UK's overall GDP will be adversely affected. So, there's one place the money we would have sent to Brussels will be spent.
5% of NI GDP puts it into perspective though.
That is, of course, the same share of GDP as exports from the UK to the Commonwealth were in 1973.
Are exports just 15% of Northern Ireland GDP? For the UK as a whole, they're 26% (IIRC). It's possible, as the public sector is quite big in Northern Ireland, but it seems a little on the low side.
64% of Scottish Leave voters still oppose Scottish independence even if 51% of Scottish Remain voters now back it, putting No to Scottish independence still narrowly ahead despite Brexit
I think there's quite a bit wishful thinking at work. A lot of people seem to think that the breakup of the UK would be a fitting punishment for having voted to leave the EU.
I don’t want the break up of the Union.
What I want is Brexit is seen as such an error that UK ends up rejoining the EU replete with membership of the Euro PDQ.
The reaction of Leavers would be awesome.
The break up of the UK is the most plausible way that England could end up in the Eurozone. I don't see the UK rejoining as the UK if we leave.
The break up of the union in the case of no deal Brexit is seen by a group of Scots including myself as making the best of a bad situation. I still intend to vote Tory for MSPs and council elections but need the certainty for my business. It is the movement of key voters such as businessmen and farmers which could tip the balance in the end. The Scottish economy cant afford to take a further hit based on long term notions of taking back control.
If we were independent we might have a real Scottish Conservative party, I could even vote for them in that case as long as they were not brownshirts like the current lot.
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?
Bugger all.
Just like nothing much happens due to there being a hard border for Income Tax, VAT, Corporation Tax, Abortion, Gay Marriage or whatever else you can think of.
Do you know what percentage of Northern Ireland's export market the Republic of Ireland comprises?
5% of GDP approximately.
About 1/3rd of what goes to Great Britain.
Good googling!!
35% of all Northern Irish foreign exports go to the Republic of Ireland. That's a lot of jobs.
Northern Ireland is already heavily subsidised. No Deal Brexit means even more subsidies at a time when the UK's overall GDP will be adversely affected. So, there's one place the money we would have sent to Brussels will be spent.
it really isnt that many jobs, ni doesnt export that much. inter irish trade is worth less than Nissan Sunderland
I'd take the headbangers on and paint them as just that, headbangers. If anyone is in a position to do that then Boris is.
I don't think it would be that difficult to persuade people of the clear blue sea between Brexiteers who believe in trade, sovereignty and a liberal immigration system and flag-waving purists like Farage and Bridgen who just want to stick two fingers up at foreigners.
Britain only wants talks if it is about replacing the backstop.
Without that we get what we want if there's no deal. If there's no deal the EU does not get what it wants. QED they have most to lose.
You reckon?
Yes.
Tic toc, tic toc . . . in 97 days we can get a clean Brexit and we are free from them. However if that happens the Irish border problem is their problem and they get no financial contributions at all.
I think it's very sweet you believe the Irish border is only an issue for the EU. What do you think will happen in Northern Ireland if a hard border is imposed?
Bugger all.
Just like nothing much happens due to there being a hard border for Income Tax, VAT, Corporation Tax, Abortion, Gay Marriage or whatever else you can think of.
Do you know what percentage of Northern Ireland's export market the Republic of Ireland comprises?
5% of GDP approximately.
About 1/3rd of what goes to Great Britain.
The point is, that 5% of GDP is lost along with a further percentage of GDP that is dependent on those Irish exports. And if those exporters go out of business, any other economic activity they do will also be lost. UK exports won't make up for any of it.
Comments
My most recent one (which was nice in a way) was when I was walking along a quiet street just off Piccadilly and apropos of nothing at all I started thinking about Toby Young. Not something I do a great deal of, I must stress, otherwise what then happened would not class as remotely amazing. Because what did happen, and it was literally maybe 60 seconds after I began thinking of him, was that Toby Young stepped out of a doorway a few yards from me, some sort of commercial premises I think, looked around quickly, like he was unsure about something, and then strode briskly off. It was as if I had 'summoned' him.
Crazy weather
The IRA might return; that's a minus point - But at least they won't get to co-govern NI anymore; that's a bonus
We could strike up some kind of a bet but it would a) be and remain hypothetical; and b) be in very bad taste.
Not that gallows humour has ever been an unknown quantity in the six counties.
It pains me to say it but Brussels democracy with PR and several other checks and balances beats Whitehall so-called democracy with FPTP. With extra democratic features like a directly-elected EU executive and senate, what's not to like?
Legislation is at the behest of HMG unless the mps can find a way round it which is why Grieve and others are desperately trying
About 1/3rd of what goes to Great Britain.
This EU democracy is better than UK democracy thing has been done.
Personaly I think those on the EU side are just not that intelligent.
Perhaps surprisingly Raab is only number 4 despite being First Sec of State. Gove number 2, Javid number 3.
https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/government-and-opposition1/her-majestys-government/
EDIT: Just realised Gove and Javid aren't Secretaries of State - they are both Chancellors!
Who comes and goes is irrelevant, how we elect them is what matters.
If you are interested in what is likely to happen when we crash out, this is very good. Tony Connelly is probably the best-informed Irish journalist there is when it comes to Brexit:
https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2019/0330/1039471-brexit-no-deal-tony-connelly/
Many of you here do not like him - but this is a good article.
Once we've exited cleanly without folding on the backstop an FTA will be the best way for them to deal with the Irish issue.
As illustrated by the ERG rejecting Mrs May's version.
But I'm not ready yet to ditch the more prosaic alternative. Johnson sells out the ERG and agrees an extension into 2020, gambling (successfully) that they won't bring him down. He then makes a serious effort to pass the WA.
An appointed Executive is a massive minus on the EU side.
35% of all Northern Irish foreign exports go to the Republic of Ireland. That's a lot of jobs.
Northern Ireland is already heavily subsidised. No Deal Brexit means even more subsidies at a time when the UK's overall GDP will be adversely affected. So, there's one place the money we would have sent to Brussels will be spent.
* I used that description of them before Peter Brookes cartoon. The connection was so obvious I'm not boasting just saying I'm not plagiarising
As I said no amount of varying political views will change my open mind to what may happen.
I just do not know
How long can this drift continue? The contrast between this old (and clearly unhappy) man and Boris will only become stark.
It is UK and also EU default law
If we crash out they intend to use solutions other than the backstop to try and keep an open border, but if we suggest that is what we should do then that's outrageous . . . and they don't want to "pollute" the Westminster debate?
F##k off, they're negotiating in bad faith already. Backstop is dead, lets see if they want a managed alternative or a crash out alternative.
So if its to be a No Deal then an open border on the Irish Sea with Great Britain makes more sense than an open border with the Republic who created this mess by insisting on the backstop. As the DUP know.
It'd be carnage right now lol
Can't believe I just said that.
You have to pass legislation and it is more than possible Boris will prempt it by calling a GE resulting in several conservative mps being deselected for it including Grieve
"Labour’s manifesto for an election is being drafted already and is likely to promise another referendum on EU membership with the party campaigning for remain,"
"Until now, Labour has been wary of backing remain because of the risk of alienating pro-Brexit voters in its traditional heartlands in northern and central England. But recent party research suggest the losses would be far fewer than previously feared, according to one person involved in the process."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-26/vote-corbyn-stop-brexit-how-labour-plans-to-take-on-johnson?srnd=premium-europe
MPs are collective dopey sods.
They voted to endorse the decision to leave the EU.
They voted thrice to reject May's deal.
Now they're upset we're set to leave with no deal, when they've voted at every stage for that very outcome.
Halloween No-Deal Brexit Nailed On
If it is to be No Deal, the UK will find itself surrounded by a hard border and with no possibility of doing a free trade deal with either of its two biggest export markets.
Don't forget - if you're a Yoon-
#Carling4Tennents4indyref2
Are exports just 15% of Northern Ireland GDP? For the UK as a whole, they're 26% (IIRC). It's possible, as the public sector is quite big in Northern Ireland, but it seems a little on the low side.
I was speaking with daughters Irish boyfriend who wanted to have a rant about the btitish losing the plot so I asked him why Leo had joined the French Commonealth rather then the britsih one, he didnt know what to say
So its no longer Leo but Frank O'Phoney and a packet of Gaulloises.
It is desperately old fashioned.
Look at photo per link below - who is opposite Boris - Gove or Raab?
It's not clear - picture is at an angle so need to look very carefully - but whoever is opposite Boris is number 2.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2019/jul/25/two-thirds-of-boris-johnsons-cabinet-went-to-private-schools#img-1
nice to see one forecast come true
I don't think it would be that difficult to persuade people of the clear blue sea between Brexiteers who believe in trade, sovereignty and a liberal immigration system and flag-waving purists like Farage and Bridgen who just want to stick two fingers up at foreigners.
It's going to come to that anyway.
Troubling too. If OJ is worried, I am worried.
The key takeaway is while Ireland is screwed by No Deal, Northern Ireland, which still is part of the UK, is screwed worse by factors. I realise that Brexiteers don't care tuppence for the fate of their supposed fellow country people
Now, I get that for longer distances (i.e. miles). But is he really going to talk about three feet, rather than a meter? Or to talk in inches rather than centimeters? And for millimeters, how are people supposed to measure things - fractions of inches?
And, for a bottle of wine - what is the proper imperial measurement for that?
And, and, if we're going imperial, are we going to US imperial measurements or our own?
We use a funny, and very British mix, of imperial and metric. I'm comfortable ordering a pint of beer or milk. But I couldn't tell you how much a quart was. Or have any sensible way of estimating a eighth of an inch. And as far as temperatures go, while I know what 70 degrees fareheit feels like, I have no idea if 40 degrees is above or below freezing.
https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/RTS/RTS Releases/RTS_Q4_2015.pdf
https://twitter.com/MarkDiStef/status/1154786081960804352