I think those high on Johnson's Kool aid this morning should remember two key facts:
1) TBP voters may be largely ex-Tory, but there are a significant number who are pure protest voters who will not be coming to BoJo no matter what. In fact the could even head to the Lib Dems under certain conditions. So adding TBP+Tory to create a Johnson Tory plurality is only partly valid. 2) Elections in the UK are generally won by those who control the centre, and Johnson has not just alienated his opponents in other parties, he has comprehensively burned his bridges with a significant minority on his own side.
Therefore going full alt-Right may not be the tactical advantage that HYFUD and others think it is. In fact if you lose one moderate Conservative voter for every ex-TBP voter you gain, then the party stays marooned in the low twenties in the polls.
More to the point, many TBP voters are either in solid Tory areas, like eastern England, or unwinnable Labour seats, like Hartlepool. The new Lib Dem voters are in the South and South West of England- lots of potentially highly marginal seats there. Meanwhile the Scottish Conservatives at Westminster are also facing Lib Dem challenges in the North East or from the SNP elsewhere, and Johnson is so disliked north of the border, that he will lose many, and maybe most of those seats too.
In short, If Labour remain pinned back in the high teens (which seems likely given what a liability Corbyn is), and the Lib Dems in the mid-high twenties (also quite possible under the Swinson surge), there is a plausible case for the ny Commons vote.
Johnson's attempt to imitate the divide et impera that Margaret Thatcher pulled off may crash on another lesson of history: it repeats itself twice, "first as tragedy, then as farce".
Of the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats the vast majority of them are Labour Leave seats Boris could win if he delivers Brexit and wins back Brexit Party voters.
At most only about 20 Tory Remain seats would be lost to the LDs and maybe 10 to the SNP, so that still makes a net Tory gain of 20 to 70 under FPTP on voteshare something like Tory 32%, LD 23%, Labour 21%, Brexit Party 12%, Greens 5%, SNP 4% as is now plausible. That gives a clear Tory majority
Thatcher of course won 3 general elections from the right helped by a split liberal left as now
Sterling up again this morning and now consistently stronger on the week.
Currency markets understanding clearly what Hammond, Grieve, Gauke et al extraordinarily seem unable to grasp - that to get a decent deal the UK must prepare, credibly, for no deal.
The only deal available is Teresa May's deal. The alternative is No Deal or No Brexit. These are the only choices.
Or, you know, they could rethink. Given the "deal" they landed was unacceptable to the UK Parliament, then they can be pig-headed and stick with what has proven to be unworkable. If so, they will deserve the Boris No Deal. And the ensuing recession of their own making.
What you are clearly are not comprehending is that "we" will suffer more than "they" with a "Boris no Deal". Obviously you are not used to the heat and it's affecting your thought processes.
Oh, it's cool down here in Devon.....
That the UK hurts more is still no reason for the EU trashing their own economies. Unless, you know, they aren't realy interested in the well-being of their own populations, but only in pursuing a political project.
It really gets on my tits that people here think the EU is being some principled entity by sticking to something that is clearly broken and needs fixing, but has a deal down from the mountain on tablets of stone so, you know, it must be the word of God.
It won't be the Eurocrats that hurt when Boris goes No Deal.
And it will not be Johnson and his mates either.
But here's the thing - we export 45% of our goods into one single market. On the other side of the table there are 27 individual EU member states that export much smaller percentages of their goods into the UK market. They are obviously and inevitably going to feel less pain than we do. The one country that might not is Ireland, but it will be looked after. That is the politics of all this.
"They"? Who are "they"?
The fact is no member of the EU negotiating team is going to lose his/her job as a result of a no deal Brexit, but plenty of europeans may do. And they have votes. And national politicians listen to them because they have votes. And they wont take kindly to being used as expendable negotiating pawns by the EU negotiating team in defence of a political idea that is increasingly being "tested" in european national elections.
Three of the four Great Offices of State have just been filled by backbenchers.
This has to be a first?
It happens every time the opposition wins a general election.
Two of the top offices of state filled by BAMEs.
I would say they are not really representative of the BAME population of the UK.
Why does that matter?
It doesn't and shouldn't. But basicbridge was attaching significance to it. I think it underestimates BAME voters to think that they warm to administrations just because they're a BAME member, in the same way as it's a mistake to think that women voters will gravitate to any woman regardless of views. There are a few people like that (I was once told by a voter that she simply voted for the tallest candidate) but most are really not.
Who said anything about voters? This was a point about the Tory party promoting talent regardless of origin. Not a prediction of electoral success because of it.
I think his strategy is to look like he's going for no deal, blame parliament when it stops him, run on a no deal ticket and then use his majority to pivot back to a lipstick/pig version of May's deal, perhaps with a NI-only backstop if he has broken free of the Orangemen's embrace. I don't know if that plan will work out for him but it is probably the only one that could.
I think so. I have been doubtful that Johnson would roll the dice on a crisis Brexit election in 2019 but I am less so now.
What I remain pretty sure about is that he is NOT serious about actually implementing No Deal. If he wins he would ratify a/the WA.
And if he loses it will be Ref2 with Lab/LD/SNP.
Therefore I carry on merrily laying 2019 No Deal at 3.5.
I think those high on Johnson's Kool aid this morning should remember two key facts:
1) TBP valid. 2) Elections his own side.
Therefore going full alt-Right may not be the tactical advantage that HYFUD and others think it is. In fact if you lose one moderate Conservative voter for every ex-TBP voter you gain, then the party stays marooned in the low twenties in the polls.
More to the point, many TBP voters are either in solid Tory areas, like eastern England, or unwinnable Labour seats, like Hartlepool. The new Lib Dem voters are in the South and South West of England- lots of potentially highly marginal seats there. Meanwhile the Scottish Conservatives at Westminster are also facing Lib Dem challenges in the North East or from the SNP elsewhere, and Johnson is so disliked north of the border, that he will lose many, and maybe most of those seats too.
In short, If Labour remain pinned back in the high teens (which seems likely given what a liability Corbyn is), and the Lib Dems in the mid-high twenties (also quite possible under the Swinson surge), there is a plausible case for the ny Commons vote.
Johnson's attempt to imitate the divide et impera that Margaret Thatcher pulled off may crash on another lesson of history: it repeats itself twice, "first as tragedy, then as farce".
Of the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats the vast majority of them are Labour Leave seats Boris could win if he delivers Brexit and wins back Brexit Party voters.
At most only about 20 Tory Remain seats would be lost to the LDs and maybe 10 to the SNP, so that still makes a net Tory gain of 20 to 30 under FPTP on voteshare something like Tory 32%, LD 23%, Labour 21%, Brexit Party 12%, Greens 5%, SNP 4% as is now plausible.
Thatcher of course won 3 general elections from the right helped by a split liberal left as now
One thing I don't get is this: the BXP did not stand at the last GE when Labour won these seats. So what BXP votes can the Tories "win back" to win seats they did not win last time? The only way the Tories win current Labour seats is to persuade people who have never voted Tory before to vote for them - or to hope that the LDs take enough Labour votes for them to come through the middle.
In the event of a no deal the British have said they wont put up a hard border in NI. Coveney and Varadker have similarly said there will be no hard border.
So who will put it up?
The EU. You misunderstand what Varadkar has been saying. Avoiding a hard border is his prime objective in negotiations, precisely because he would not be able to prevent a hard border if negotiations fail.
Hence why he says stuff like "What people are saying is ‘give up the backstop’, which we know will work legally and operationally, in return for something that doesn’t yet exist but might exist in the future. I can’t do that to the border communities.”
"That" is a hard border, of the kind that already exists between EEA members like Norway and Switzerland and the EU. The Brexiteers seem to want a harder border than EEA membership implies, and no amount of technology will get round the need for veterinary and plant health checks between the EU and a third country.
I think those high on Johnson's Kool aid this morning should remember two key facts:
1) TBP voters may be largely ex-Tory, but there are a significant number who are pure protest voters who will not be coming to BoJo no matter what. In fact the could even head to the Lib Dems under certain conditions. So adding TBP+Tory to create a Johnson Tory plurality is only partly valid. 2) Elections in the UK are generally won by those who control the centre, and Johnson has not just alienated his opponents in other parties, he has comprehensively burned his bridges with a significant minority on his own side.
Therefore going full alt-Right may not be the tactical advantage that HYFUD and others think it is. In fact if you lose one moderate Conservative voter for every ex-TBP voter you gain, then the party stays marooned in the low twenties in the polls.
More to the point, many TBP voters are either in solid Tory areas, like eastern England, or unwinnable Labour seats, like Hartlepool. The new Lib Dem voters are in the South and South West of England- lots of potentially highly marginal seats there. Meanwhile the Scottish Conservatives at Westminster are also facing Lib Dem challenges in the North East or from the SNP elsewhere, and Johnson is so disliked north of the border, that he will lose many, and maybe most of those seats too.
In short, If Labour remain pinned back in the high teens (which seems likely given what a liability Corbyn is), and the Lib Dems in the mid-high twenties (also quite possible under the Swinson surge), there is a plausible case for the ny Commons vote.
Johnson's attempt to imitate the divide et impera that Margaret Thatcher pulled off may crash on another lesson of history: it repeats itself twice, "first as tragedy, then as farce".
Of the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats the vast majority of them are Labour Leave seats Boris could win if he delivers Brexit and wins back Brexit Party voters.
At most only about 20 Tory Remain seats would be lost to the LDs and maybe 10 to the SNP, so that still makes a net Tory gain of 20 to 70 under FPTP on voteshare something like Tory 32%, LD 23%, Labour 21%, Brexit Party 12%, Greens 5%, SNP 4% as is now plausible. That gives a clear Tory majority
Thatcher of course won 3 general elections from the right helped by a split liberal left as now
Have you talked to any northern Brexit Party supporters? Not a rhetorical question. I am just wondering how many of them are likely to go Tory if Brexit is delivered. I don't have a feel for that part of the country and polls can be very misleading.
The alternative is that she could be tweeting about Pidcock's interview with Nick Robinson. She made a wise decision.
Johnson has the playground to himself until Corbyn goes. It's as simple as that
Yes Corbyn is now polling worse than Foot and the LDs have a chance of the highest third party vote since Jenkins ' SDP in 1983 but of course the main winner from that was Maggie Thatcher
I think those high on Johnson's Kool aid this morning should remember two key facts:
1) TBP valid. 2) Elections his own side.
Therefore going full alt-Right may not be the tactical advantage that HYFUD and others think it is. In fact if you lose one moderate Conservative voter for every ex-TBP voter you gain, then the party stays marooned in the low twenties in the polls.
More to the point, many TBP voters are either in solid Tory areas, like eastern England, or unwinnable Labour seats, like Hartlepool. The new Lib Dem voters are in the South and South West of England- lots of potentially highly marginal seats there. Meanwhile the Scottish Conservatives at Westminster are also facing Lib Dem challenges in the North East or from the SNP elsewhere, and Johnson is so disliked north of the border, that he will lose many, and maybe most of those seats too.
In short, If Labour remain pinned back in the high teens (which seems likely given what a liability Corbyn is), and the Lib Dems in the mid-high twenties (also quite possible under the Swinson surge), there is a plausible case for the ny Commons vote.
Johnson's attempt to imitate the divide et impera that Margaret Thatcher pulled off may crash on another lesson of history: it repeats itself twice, "first as tragedy, then as farce".
Of the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats the vast majority of them are Labour Leave seats Boris could win if he delivers Brexit and wins back Brexit Party voters.
At most only about 20 Tory Remain seats would be lost to the LDs and maybe 10 to the SNP, so that still makes a net Tory gain of 20 to 30 under FPTP on voteshare something like Tory 32%, LD 23%, Labour 21%, Brexit Party 12%, Greens 5%, SNP 4% as is now plausible.
Thatcher of course won 3 general elections from the right helped by a split liberal left as now
One thing I don't get is this: the BXP did not stand at the last GE when Labour won these seats. So what BXP votes can the Tories "win back" to win seats they did not win last time? The only way the Tories win current Labour seats is to persuade people who have never voted Tory before to vote for them - or to hope that the LDs take enough Labour votes for them to come through the middle.
Not all BXP votes will be Tory, indeed the Tories won Vale of Clwyd in 2015 thanks to Labour voters voting UKIP but lost it in 2017 when they returned to Labour
Boris will also win a few Labour Leave voters who May could not while the LDs continue to eat into the Labour share letting the Tories win by default as you say
Ruth must surely be accelerating plans for a Scottish Party breakaway? Only chance the’ve got? Or are they better off trying to maximise their share of the Scottish leave vote?
She was always dead against so why change now , given all the MP's are brown nosing. More likely to retire rather than get humped at next election.
I think his strategy is to look like he's going for no deal, blame parliament when it stops him, run on a no deal ticket and then use his majority to pivot back to a lipstick/pig version of May's deal, perhaps with a NI-only backstop if he has broken free of the Orangemen's embrace. I don't know if that plan will work out for him but it is probably the only one that could.
I think so. I have been doubtful that Johnson would roll the dice on a crisis Brexit election in 2019 but I am less so now.
What I remain pretty sure about is that he is NOT serious about actually implementing No Deal. If he wins he would ratify a/the WA.
And if he loses it will be Ref2 with Lab/LD/SNP.
Therefore I carry on merrily laying 2019 No Deal at 3.5.
That is my thought too but you can't rule out an accident so no deal is probably 25-30%.
I think those high on Johnson's Kool aid this morning should remember two key facts:
1) TBP voters may be largely ex-Tory, but there are a significant number who are pure protest voters who will not be coming to BoJo no matter what. In fact the could even head to the Lib Dems under certain conditions. So adding TBP+Tory to create a Johnson Tory plurality is only partly valid. 2) Elections in the UK are generally won by those who control the centre, and Johnson has not just alienated his opponents in other parties, he has comprehensively burned his bridges with a significant minority on his own side.
Therefore going full alt-Right may not be the tactical advantage that HYFUD and others think it is. In fact if you lose one moderate Conservative voter for every ex-TBP voter you gain, then the party stays marooned in the low twenties in the polls.
More to the point, many TBP voters are either in solid Tory areas, like eastern England, or unwinnable Labour seats, like Hartlepool. The new Lib Dem voters are in the South and South West of England- lots of potentially highly marginal seats there. Meanwhile the Scottish Conservatives at Westminster are also facing Lib Dem challenges in the North East or from the SNP elsewhere, and Johnson is so disliked north of the border, that he will lose many, and maybe most of those seats too.
In short, If Labour remain pinned back in the high teens (which seems likely given what a liability Corbyn is), and the Lib Dems in the mid-high twenties (also quite possible under the Swinson surge), there is a plausible case for the ny Commons vote.
Johnson's attempt to imitate the divide et impera that Margaret Thatcher pulled off may crash on another lesson of history: it repeats itself twice, "first as tragedy, then as farce".
Of the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats the vast majority of them are Labour Leave seats Boris could win if he delivers Brexit and wins back Brexit Party voters.
At most only about 20 Tory Remain seats would be lost to the LDs and maybe 10 to the SNP, so that still makes a net Tory gain of 20 to 70 under FPTP on voteshare something like Tory 32%, LD 23%, Labour 21%, Brexit Party 12%, Greens 5%, SNP 4% as is now plausible. That gives a clear Tory majority
Thatcher of course won 3 general elections from the right helped by a split liberal left as now
Have you talked to any northern Brexit Party supporters? Not a rhetorical question. I am just wondering how many of them are likely to go Tory if Brexit is delivered..
Not many, but some might before Brexit is delivered, if the Tories are Brexity enough ?
I think those high on Johnson's Kool aid this morning should remember two key facts:
1) TBP valid. 2) Elections his own side.
Therefore going full alt-Right may not be the tactical advantage that HYFUD and others think it is. In fact if you lose one moderate Conservative voter for every ex-TBP voter you gain, then the party stays marooned in the low twenties in the polls.
More to the point, many TBP voters are either in solid Tory areas, like eastern England, or unwinnable Labour seats, like Hartlepool. The new Lib Dem voters are in the South and South West of England- lots of potentially highly marginal seats there. Meanwhile the Scottish Conservatives at Westminster are also facing Lib Dem challenges in the North East or from the SNP elsewhere, and Johnson is so disliked north of the border, that he will lose many, and maybe most of those seats too.
In short, If Labour remain pinned back in the high teens (which seems likely given what a liability Corbyn is), and the Lib Dems in the mid-high twenties (also quite possible under the Swinson surge), there is a plausible case for the ny Commons vote.
Johnson's attempt to imitate the divide et impera that Margaret Thatcher pulled off may crash on another lesson of history: it repeats itself twice, "first as tragedy, then as farce".
Of the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats the vast majority of them are Labour Leave seats Boris could win if he delivers Brexit and wins back Brexit Party voters.
At most only about 20 Tory Remain seats would be lost to the LDs and maybe 10 to the SNP, so that still makes a net Tory gain of 20 to 30 under FPTP on voteshare something like Tory 32%, LD 23%, Labour 21%, Brexit Party 12%, Greens 5%, SNP 4% as is now plausible.
Thatcher of course won 3 general elections from the right helped by a split liberal left as now
One thing I don't get is this: the BXP did not stand at the last GE when Labour won these seats. So what BXP votes can the Tories "win back" to win seats they did not win last time? The only way the Tories win current Labour seats is to persuade people who have never voted Tory before to vote for them - or to hope that the LDs take enough Labour votes for them to come through the middle.
Please don't confuse our HYUFD. Let him live in a world of his own. Last night he claimed without any evidence that there were 6 times as many Indians than Pakistanis in the UK. Completely made it up. In 2011, it was 1.4:1.1 . Now, it would even be closer. Why he makes up stats like that, only he knows. He is a bit of a fantasist and also thinks highly of himself.
I think those high on Johnson's Kool aid this morning should remember two key facts:
1) TBP voters may be largely ex-Tory, but there are a significant number who are pure protest voters who will not be coming to BoJo no matter what. In fact the could even head to the Lib Dems under certain conditions. So adding TBP+Tory to create a Johnson Tory plurality is only partly valid. 2) Elections in the UK are generally won by those who control the centre, and Johnson has not just alienated his opponents in other parties, he has comprehensively burned his bridges with a significant minority on his own side.
Therefore going full alt-Right may not be the tactical advantage that HYFUD and others think it is. In fact if you lose one moderate Conservative voter for every ex-TBP voter you gain, then the party stays marooned in the low twenties in the polls.
More to the point, many TBP voters are either in solid Tory areas, like eastern England, or unwinnable Labour seats, like Hartlepool. The new Lib Dem voters are in the South and South West of England- lots of potentially highly marginal seats there. Meanwhile the Scottish Conservatives at Westminster are also facing Lib Dem challenges in the North East or from the SNP elsewhere, and Johnson is so disliked north of the border, that he will lose many, and maybe most of those seats too.
In short, If Labour remain pinned back in the high teens (which seems likely given what a liability Corbyn is), and the Lib Dems in the mid-high twenties (also quite possible under the Swinson surge), there is a plausible case for the ny Commons vote.
Johnson's attempt to imitate the divide et impera that Margaret Thatcher pulled off may crash on another lesson of history: it repeats itself twice, "first as tragedy, then as farce".
Of the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats the vast majority of them are Labour Leave seats Boris could win if he delivers Brexit and wins back Brexit Party voters.
At most only about 20 Tory Remain seats would be lost to the LDs and maybe 10 to the SNP, so that still makes a net Tory gain of 20 to 70 under FPTP on voteshare something like Tory 32%, LD 23%, Labour 21%, Brexit Party 12%, Greens 5%, SNP 4% as is now plausible. That gives a clear Tory majority
Thatcher of course won 3 general elections from the right helped by a split liberal left as now
Have you talked to any northern Brexit Party supporters? Not a rhetorical question. I am just wondering how many of them are likely to go Tory if Brexit is delivered. I don't have a feel for that part of the country and polls can be very misleading.
They do not have to vote Tory, if the Tories hold most of their 2017 vote and Labour Leave voters go Brexit Party and Labour Remain voters go LD the Tories gain a Labour Leave seat just standing still
I am deeply depressed about the state of politics. I dreamt last night that I was in a room with Farage, Corbyn and Boris and my gun had only two bullets.
I think those high on Johnson's Kool aid this morning should remember two key facts:
1) TBP valid. 2) Elections his own side.
Therefore going full alt-Right may not be the tactical advantage that HYFUD and others think it is. In fact if you lose one moderate Conservative voter for every ex-TBP voter you gain, then the party stays marooned in the low twenties in the polls.
More to the point, many TBP voters are either in solid Tory areas, like eastern England, or unwinnable Labour seats, like Hartlepool. The new Lib Dem voters are in the South and South West of England- lots of potentially highly marginal seats there. Meanwhile the Scottish Conservatives at Westminster are also facing Lib Dem challenges in the North East or from the SNP elsewhere, and Johnson is so disliked north of the border, that he will lose many, and maybe most of those seats too.
In short, If Labour remain pinned back in the high teens (which seems likely given what a liability Corbyn is), and the Lib Dems in the mid-high twenties (also quite possible under the Swinson surge), there is a plausible case for the ny Commons vote.
Johnson's attempt to imitate the divide et impera that Margaret Thatcher pulled off may crash on another lesson of history: it repeats itself twice, "first as tragedy, then as farce".
Of the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats the vast majority of them are Labour Leave seats Boris could win if he delivers Brexit and wins back Brexit Party voters.
At most only about 20 Tory Remain seats would be lost to the LDs and maybe 10 to the SNP, so that still makes a net Tory gain of 20 to 30 under FPTP on voteshare something like Tory 32%, LD 23%, Labour 21%, Brexit Party 12%, Greens 5%, SNP 4% as is now plausible.
Thatcher of course won 3 general elections from the right helped by a split liberal left as now
One thing I don't get is this: the BXP did not stand at the last GE when Labour won these seats. So what BXP votes can the Tories "win back" to
Please don't confuse our HYUFD. Let him live in a world of his own. Last night he claimed without any evidence that there were 6 times as many Indians than Pakistanis in the UK. Completely made it up. In 2011, it was 1.4:1.1 . Now, it would even be closer. Why he makes up stats like that, only he knows. He is a bit of a fantasist and also thinks highly of himself.
No I said there are 6 times as many Indians as Pakistanis which is correct, 1.3 million to 212 000 000.
Even in the UK British Indians are the largest Asian group, though of course Javid is of Pakistani heritage as Patel is of Indian heritage
I don't know if I count as woke or not but I think it is perfectly possible to be glad that the Home Secretary is an Asian woman and less glad that the Asian woman in question is Priti Patel.
'Woke' in the parlance of many on the right of politics means 'person not comfortable with misogyny and casual racism'.
One would hope this covers most of the country - but I am not as confident of that as I would like to be.
I think those high on Johnson's Kool aid this morning should remember two key facts:
1) TBP valid. 2) Elections his own side.
Therefore going full alt-Right may not be the tactical advantage that HYFUD and others think it is. In fact if you lose one moderate Conservative voter for every ex-TBP voter you gain, then the party stays marooned in the low twenties in the polls.
More to the point, many TBP voters are either in solid Tory areas, like eastern England, or unwinnable Labour seats, like Hartlepool. The new Lib Dem voters are in the South and South West of England- lots of potentially highly marginal seats there. Meanwhile the Scottish Conservatives at Westminster are also facing Lib Dem challenges in the North East or from the SNP elsewhere, and Johnson is so disliked north of the border, that he will lose many, and maybe most of those seats too.
In short, If Labour remain pinned back in the high teens (which seems likely given what a liability Corbyn is), and the Lib Dems in the mid-high twenties (also quite possible under the Swinson surge), there is a plausible case for the ny Commons vote.
Johnson's attempt to imitate the divide et impera that Margaret Thatcher pulled off may crash on another lesson of history: it repeats itself twice, "first as tragedy, then as farce".
Of the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats the vast majority of them are Labour Leave seats Boris could win if he delivers Brexit and wins back Brexit Party voters.
At most only about 20 Tory Remain seats would be lost to the LDs and maybe 10 to the SNP, so that still makes a net Tory gain of 20 to 30 under FPTP on voteshare something like Tory 32%, LD 23%, Labour 21%, Brexit Party 12%, Greens 5%, SNP 4% as is now plausible.
Thatcher of course won 3 general elections from the right helped by a split liberal left as now
One thing I don't get is this: the BXP did not stand at the last GE when Labour won these seats. So what BXP votes can the Tories "win back" to win seats they did not win last time? The only way the Tories win current Labour seats is to persuade people who have never voted Tory before to vote for them - or to hope that the LDs take enough Labour votes for them to come through the middle.
Please don't confuse our HYUFD. Let him live in a world of his own. Last night he claimed without any evidence that there were 6 times as many Indians than Pakistanis in the UK. Completely made it up. In 2011, it was 1.4:1.1 . Now, it would even be closer. Why he makes up stats like that, only he knows. He is a bit of a fantasist and also thinks highly of himself.
Please don't. He is my go-to guy on India and the sub-continent.
Under almost any scenario most of the 12 Scottish tories are gone. Ruth Davidson has been very quiet recently. A no deal Brexit is now more unlikely than ever it will be a no deal Exit.
There has to be a good chance Ruth Davidson will leave politics. Brexit has utterly undermined her political position.
I don't see the point of setting up a Scottish Conservative Party that is somewhat associated with a Brexit Party Except In Name that is so toxic they need to get away.
Unless the point is to set up a properly Scottish Conservative Party ahead of independence that Malcolm G etc could sign up to
Either way I don't see Davidson having any reason to stay around.
Are you scots?
My guess is that the tories will now hoover up the unionist vote and increase their representation at the expense of the SNP.
Sterling up again this morning and now consistently stronger on the week.
Currency markets understanding clearly what Hammond, Grieve, Gauke et al extraordinarily seem unable to grasp - that to get a decent deal the UK must prepare, credibly, for no deal.
No, its not. Its treading water against the $ fractionally down on the session so far.
Except that you are wrong. A transparent attempt to try and cite the currency markets in support of a conclusion you had reached before even looking.
The Euro is down, but the £ isn't up. Against the weighted basket the £ peaked (modestly) on Friday, and dropped marginally through yesterday. The basket isn't calculated for today, but £ being fractionally down against the $ nothing dramatic is happening this morning as yet. The markets are essentially flat, as they (like us) wonder what this all means.
This is hilarious. Sterling is up against the euro over the last week versus the benchmark EU currency! I look at these things for a living. There is no debate and your argument is sophistry.
Given all the tripe pouring out on a daily basis about Boris, not least on PB, this in itself is instructive in the week that BoJo became PM.
I am no particular out and out fan of BJ's but i know sound tactics when i see them.
Could you perhaps explain to a layman like me why it's a good idea for your analysis to only take account of the relative movement of the pound and the euro and not also include the seemingly highly relevant information of how both currencies performed relative to the rest of the world?
No i cant. My point is self-evident. Take it or leave.
Versus the euro (the benchmark currency) sterling has strengthened. Moreover , this is contrary to a great deal of the nonsense about Boris spouted on PB.
You dont agree. Fair enough. But the facts are the facts.
The strengthening of sterling against the euro may not be a vote of confidence in Johnson. On the contrary, it may be that No Deal is now seen as less likely because of the many ex-ministers on the Tory backbenches.
Three of the four Great Offices of State have just been filled by backbenchers.
This has to be a first?
It happens every time the opposition wins a general election.
Two of the top offices of state filled by BAMEs.
I would say they are not really representative of the BAME population of the UK.
Why does that matter?
Priti Patel for instance is a "people repellent" - colour of skin doesn't matter - she disgusts almost everyone!
Does anyone (even on this right-wing blog) have any time for her?
She's a dim-witted piece of right-wing trash!
I'm not a fan of Patel, but that's a rather different thing to your claim in your OP. BAME covers many groupings of people, and Patel's views will be as 'representative' of many of the people within those groups as yours.
I'm reminded of those lefties who said that Thatcher wasn't really a woman because they didn't agree with her views.
If Johnson is successful in his strategy, I think he will lose Scotland. English nationalism doesn't play well in these parts obviously.
I'm intrigued to see how Swinson tackles the Scottish issue. Will she be as strong on Sindy as she is on Brexit?
It is an interesting point. The Lib Dems now have a clear offer of status quo to those that mistrust change without demonstrable benefit. The offer the Conservatives made so successfully until they trashed their brand with Brexit.
But if independence is now all but inevitable, the Lib Dems will need to make a quick switch.
she has already said in her opening speech that she will never allow an indyref2, whether she can walk the walk we shall see.
I think those high on Johnson's Kool aid this morning should remember two key facts:
1) TBP voters may be largely ex-Tory, but there are a significant number who are pure protest voters who will not be coming to BoJo no matter what. In fact the could even head to the Lib Dems under certain conditions. So adding TBP+Tory to create a Johnson Tory plurality is only partly valid. 2) Elections in the UK are generally won by those who control the centre, and Johnson has not just alienated his opponents in other parties, he has comprehensively burned his bridges with a significant minority on his own side.
Therefore going full alt-Right may not be the tactical advantage that HYFUD and others think it is. In fact if you lose one moderate Conservative voter for every ex-TBP voter you gain, then the party stays marooned in the low twenties in the polls.
...........................
In short, If Labour remain pinned back in the high teens (which seems likely given what a liability Corbyn is), and the Lib Dems in the mid-high twenties (also quite possible under the Swinson surge), there is a plausible case for the ny Commons vote.
Johnson's attempt to imitate the divide et impera that Margaret Thatcher pulled off may crash on another lesson of history: it repeats itself twice, "first as tragedy, then as farce".
Of the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats the vast majority of them are Labour Leave seats Boris could win if he delivers Brexit and wins back Brexit Party voters.
At most only about 20 Tory Remain seats would be lost to the LDs and maybe 10 to the SNP, so that still makes a net Tory gain of 20 to 70 under FPTP on voteshare something like Tory 32%, LD 23%, Labour 21%, Brexit Party 12%, Greens 5%, SNP 4% as is now plausible. That gives a clear Tory majority
Thatcher of course won 3 general elections from the right helped by a split liberal left as now
Again comparing apples to bridges:
a) The SNP only had 2 or 3 seats then b) There was no UKIP/Brexit party c) The Liberals/Alliance hadn't learnt about targeting then d) The Tory vote was over 40% in all 3 elections and labour between 28 and 37%
Other than that a perfect analogy
And where did 'at most only about 20 Tory Remain seats will be lost to the LDs' come from? You state opinion as fact. You might be right, you might be wrong, but you don't back this up with anything except a very flawed analogy, that has no comparable data to today.
One thing I don't get is this: the BXP did not stand at the last GE when Labour won these seats. So what BXP votes can the Tories "win back" to win seats they did not win last time? The only way the Tories win current Labour seats is to persuade people who have never voted Tory before to vote for them - or to hope that the LDs take enough Labour votes for them to come through the middle.
Cummings et al are relying on the people who delivered Leave the first time round. This next GE is not about traditional parties, it's a second referendum by proxy, using FPTP rather than a simple majority. So yes, the Cummings/Johnson plan relies absolutely on recruiting the working-class "left-behinds" who traditionally voted Labour, hence the emphasis on messages about law & order, the NHS etc. They'll accept some losses to the LibDems, but are mostly hoping the useful idiots in Labour will split the Remain vote to allow them to get a clear majority for the Tories as proxies for Leave.
I think those high on Johnson's Kool aid this morning should remember two key facts:
1) TBP voters may be largely ex-Tory, but there are a significant number who are pure protest voters who will not be coming to BoJo no matter what. In fact the could even head to the Lib Dems under certain conditions. So adding TBP+Tory to create a Johnson Tory plurality is only partly valid. 2) Elections in the UK are generally won by those who control the centre, and Johnson has not just alienated his opponents in other parties, he has comprehensively burned his bridges with a significant minority on his own side.
Therefore going full alt-Right may not be the tactical advantage that HYFUD and others think it is. In fact if you lose one moderate Conservative voter for every ex-TBP voter you gain, then the party stays marooned in the low twenties in the polls.
...........................
In short, If Labour remain pinned back in the high teens (which seems likely given what a liability Corbyn is), and the Lib Dems in the mid-high twenties (also quite possible under the Swinson surge), there is a plausible case for the ny Commons vote.
Johnson's attempt to imitate the divide et impera that Margaret Thatcher pulled off may crash on another lesson of history: it repeats itself twice, "first as tragedy, then as farce".
Of the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats the vast majority of them are Labour Leave seats Boris could win if he delivers Brexit and wins back Brexit Party voters.
At most only about 20 Tory Remain seats would be lost to the LDs and maybe 10 to the SNP, so that still makes a net Tory gain of 20 to 70 under FPTP on voteshare something like Tory 32%, LD 23%, Labour 21%, Brexit Party 12%, Greens 5%, SNP 4% as is now plausible. That gives a clear Tory majority
Thatcher of course won 3 general elections from the right helped by a split liberal left as now
Again comparing apples to bridges:
a) The SNP only had 2 or 3 seats then b) There was no UKIP/Brexit party c) The Liberals/Alliance hadn't learnt about targeting then d) The Tory vote was over 40% in all 3 elections and labour between 28 and 37%
Other than that a perfect analogy
And where did 'at most only about 20 Tory Remain seats will be lost to the LDs' come from? You state opinion as fact. You might be right, you might be wrong, but you don't back this up with anything except a very flawed analogy, that has no comparable data to today.
On voteshare of Tories 32%, LDs 23%, Labour 20%, Brexit Party 12% the Tories would gain 49 Labour seats. The LDs would gain only 18 Tory seats
IF Labour voters get behind the LibDems in Mogg's seat, there is every chance.
That would make no sense - Labour last polled 18,757 to the LDs 4,461.
Yes but therein lies the issue. Look at the EU election results and the locals. The 2017 results are so far from recent polls that they are the worst place to start.
IF Labour voters get behind the LibDems in Mogg's seat, there is every chance.
That would make no sense - Labour last polled 18,757 to the LDs 4,461.
But the Tories just arent going to switch to Labour, a poll discussed yesterday had the number at 1%, whereas both Tories and Labour might switch to LD.
One thing I don't get is this: the BXP did not stand at the last GE when Labour won these seats. So what BXP votes can the Tories "win back" to win seats they did not win last time? The only way the Tories win current Labour seats is to persuade people who have never voted Tory before to vote for them - or to hope that the LDs take enough Labour votes for them to come through the middle.
Cummings et al are relying on the people who delivered Leave the first time round. This next GE is not about traditional parties, it's a second referendum by proxy, using FPTP rather than a simple majority. So yes, the Cummings/Johnson plan relies absolutely on recruiting the working-class "left-behinds" who traditionally voted Labour, hence the emphasis on messages about law & order, the NHS etc. They'll accept some losses to the LibDems, but are mostly hoping the useful idiots in Labour will split the Remain vote to allow them to get a clear majority for the Tories as proxies for Leave.
A lot of people who voted in the referendum do not vote in elections. Getting them to turn out and then vote Tory will be a challenge.
More likely to retire rather than get humped at next election.
You said she was going to get thumped at the last election.
How did that work out for you?
She got humped, the Tories are nowhere in Scotland , they are also rans. SNP has 3 times as many MP's and 2 x the MSP's ( only due to losers getting free seats ). Are you as stupid as you make out. Being a distant distant second is hardly winning even in unionist la la land.
One thing I don't get is this: the BXP did not stand at the last GE when Labour won these seats. So what BXP votes can the Tories "win back" to win seats they did not win last time? The only way the Tories win current Labour seats is to persuade people who have never voted Tory before to vote for them - or to hope that the LDs take enough Labour votes for them to come through the middle.
Cummings et al are relying on the people who delivered Leave the first time round. This next GE is not about traditional parties, it's a second referendum by proxy, using FPTP rather than a simple majority. So yes, the Cummings/Johnson plan relies absolutely on recruiting the working-class "left-behinds" who traditionally voted Labour, hence the emphasis on messages about law & order, the NHS etc. They'll accept some losses to the LibDems, but are mostly hoping the useful idiots in Labour will split the Remain vote to allow them to get a clear majority for the Tories as proxies for Leave.
Which might work (and might not), but won't work very well post Brexit, I think.
One thing I don't get is this: the BXP did not stand at the last GE when Labour won these seats. So what BXP votes can the Tories "win back" to win seats they did not win last time? The only way the Tories win current Labour seats is to persuade people who have never voted Tory before to vote for them - or to hope that the LDs take enough Labour votes for them to come through the middle.
Cummings et al are relying on the people who delivered Leave the first time round. This next GE is not about traditional parties, it's a second referendum by proxy, using FPTP rather than a simple majority. So yes, the Cummings/Johnson plan relies absolutely on recruiting the working-class "left-behinds" who traditionally voted Labour, hence the emphasis on messages about law & order, the NHS etc. They'll accept some losses to the LibDems, but are mostly hoping the useful idiots in Labour will split the Remain vote to allow them to get a clear majority for the Tories as proxies for Leave.
A lot of people who voted in the referendum do not vote in elections. Getting them to turn out and then vote Tory will be a challenge.
Just winning over some Labour Leave voters and sending others to the Brexit Party while Labour Remainers go LD would be enough
Sterling up again this morning and now consistently stronger on the week.
Currency markets understanding clearly what Hammond, Grieve, Gauke et al extraordinarily seem unable to grasp - that to get a decent deal the UK must prepare, credibly, for no deal.
The only deal available is Teresa May's deal. The alternative is No Deal or No Brexit. These are the only choices.
Or, you know, they could rethink. Given the "deal" they landed was unacceptable to the UK Parliament, then they can be pig-headed and stick with what has proven to be unworkable. If so, they will deserve the Boris No Deal. And the ensuing recession of their own making.
What you are clearly are not comprehending is that "we" will suffer more than "they" with a "Boris no Deal". Obviously you are not used to the heat and it's affecting your thought processes.
Oh, it's cool down here in Devon.....
That the UK hurts more is still no reason for the EU trashing their own economies. Unless, you know, they aren't realy interested in the well-being of their own populations, but only in pursuing a political project.
It really gets on my tits that people here think the EU is being some principled entity by sticking to something that is clearly broken and needs fixing, but has a deal down from the mountain on tablets of stone so, you know, it must be the word of God.
It won't be the Eurocrats that hurt when Boris goes No Deal.
And it will not be Johnson and his mates either.
But here's the thing - we export 45% of our goods into one single market. On the other side of the table there are 27 individual EU member states that export much smaller percentages of their goods into the UK market. They are obviously and inevitably going to feel less pain than we do. The one country that might not is Ireland, but it will be looked after. That is the politics of all this.
"They"? Who are "they"?
The fact is no member of the EU negotiating team is going to lose his/her job as a result of a no deal Brexit, but plenty of europeans may do. And they have votes. And national politicians listen to them because they have votes. And they wont take kindly to being used as expendable negotiating pawns by the EU negotiating team in defence of a political idea that is increasingly being "tested" in european national elections.
What makes you think European voters, who will be less affected by a No Deal Brexit, will prioritise job losses, economics and UK voters will not?
Under almost any scenario most of the 12 Scottish tories are gone. Ruth Davidson has been very quiet recently. A no deal Brexit is now more unlikely than ever it will be a no deal Exit.
There has to be a good chance Ruth Davidson will leave politics. Brexit has utterly undermined her political position.
I don't see the point of setting up a Scottish Conservative Party that is somewhat associated with a Brexit Party Except In Name that is so toxic they need to get away.
Unless the point is to set up a properly Scottish Conservative Party ahead of independence that Malcolm G etc could sign up to
Either way I don't see Davidson having any reason to stay around.
Are you scots?
My guess is that the tories will now hoover up the unionist vote and increase their representation at the expense of the SNP.
You are obviously not with that kind of lack of knowledge of Scottish politics. More likely the Lib Dems would benefit, despite how bad they are.
I think those high on Johnson's Kool aid this morning should remember two key facts:
1) TBP voters may be largely ex-Tory, but there are a significant number who are pure protest voters who will not be coming to BoJo no matter what. In fact the could even head to the Lib Dems under certain conditions. So adding TBP+Tory to create a Johnson Tory plurality is only partly valid. 2) Elections in the UK are generally won by those who control the centre, and Johnson has not just alienated his opponents in other parties, he has comprehensively burned his bridges with a significant minority on his own side.
...........................
In short, If Labour remain pinned back in the high teens (which seems likely given what a liability Corbyn is), and the Lib Dems in the mid-high twenties (also quite possible under the Swinson surge), there is a plausible case for the ny Commons vote.
Johnson's attempt to imitate the divide et impera that Margaret Thatcher pulled off may crash on another lesson of history: it repeats itself twice, "first as tragedy, then as farce".
Of the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats the vast majority of them are Labour Leave seats Boris could win if he delivers Brexit and wins back Brexit Party voters.
At most only about 20 Tory Remain seats would be lost to the LDs and maybe 10 to the SNP, so that still makes a net Tory gain of 20 to 70 under FPTP on voteshare something like Tory 32%, LD 23%, Labour 21%, Brexit Party 12%, Greens 5%, SNP 4% as is now plausible. That gives a clear Tory majority
Thatcher of course won 3 general elections from the right helped by a split liberal left as now
Again comparing apples to bridges:
a) The SNP only had 2 or 3 seats then b) There was no UKIP/Brexit party c) The Liberals/Alliance hadn't learnt about targeting then d) The Tory vote was over 40% in all 3 elections and labour between 28 and 37%
Other than that a perfect analogy
And where did 'at most only about 20 Tory Remain seats will be lost to the LDs' come from? You state opinion as fact. You might be right, you might be wrong, but you don't back this up with anything except a very flawed analogy, that has no comparable data to today.
On voteshare of Tories 32%, LDs 23%, Labour 20%, Brexit Party 12% the Tories would gain 49 Labour seats. The LDs would gain only 18 Tory seats
Cummings et al are relying on the people who delivered Leave the first time round. This next GE is not about traditional parties, it's a second referendum by proxy, using FPTP rather than a simple majority. So yes, the Cummings/Johnson plan relies absolutely on recruiting the working-class "left-behinds" who traditionally voted Labour, hence the emphasis on messages about law & order, the NHS etc. They'll accept some losses to the LibDems, but are mostly hoping the useful idiots in Labour will split the Remain vote to allow them to get a clear majority for the Tories as proxies for Leave.
Plausible analysis.
But when it comes to splitting the Remain vote, Labour vs Lib Dem, to the benefit of the Cons it is hardly fair to describe just one side of this as 'useful idiots'.
In practice, the way to go will be seat by seat. If your priority is to stop Johnson/Farage and Hard Brexit, you vote for whichever party is best placed in your constituency.
Given that Remainers are just that little bit brighter than Leavers - this is generally accepted, I think - I expect that Lab/LD will benefit more from tactical voting in a 'Brexit GE' than Con/BP.
We will soon find out by the looks of it - since that election is looking ON.
I think those high on Johnson's Kool aid this morning should remember two key facts:
1) TBP voters may be largely ex-Tory, but there are a significant number who are pure protest voters who will not be coming to BoJo no matter what. In fact the could even head to the Lib Dems under certain conditions. So adding TBP+Tory to create a Johnson Tory plurality is only partly valid. 2) Elections in the UK are generally won by those who control the centre, and Johnson has not just alienated his opponents in other parties, he has comprehensively burned his bridges with a significant minority on his own side.
...........................
In short, If Labour remain pinned back in the high teens (which seems likely given what a liability Corbyn is), and the Lib Dems in the mid-high twenties (also quite possible under the Swinson surge), there is a plausible case for the ny Commons vote.
Johnson's attempt to imitate the divide et impera that Margaret Thatcher pulled off may crash on another lesson of history: it repeats itself twice, "first as tragedy, then as farce".
Of the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats the vast majority of them are Labour Leave seats Boris could win if he delivers Brexit and wins back Brexit Party voters.
At most only about 20 Tory Remain seats would ral elections from the right helped by a split liberal left as now
Again comparing apples to bridges:
a) The SNP only had 2 or 3 seats then b) There was no UKIP/Brexit party c) The Liberals/Alliance hadn't learnt about targeting then d) The Tory vote was over 40% in all 3 elections and labour between 28 and 37%
Other than that a perfect analogy
And where did 'at most only about 20 Tory Remain seats will be lost to the LDs' come from? You state opinion as fact. You might be right, you might be wrong, but you don't back this up with anything except a very flawed analogy, that has no comparable data to today.
On voteshare of Tories 32%, LDs 23%, Labour 20%, Brexit Party 12% the Tories would gain 49 Labour seats. The LDs would gain only 18 Tory seats
And that is a fact then? Not an opinion? You stated it as a fact. Frankly in the current scenario nobody has a clue.
What about your analogy? Do you agree it is very flawed on all 4 counts?
The Tories got to 32% under Boris in one recent Comres and the LDs and Labour are now polling 15 to 25% in most polls each so no it is a perfectly good scenario and the swings and seat gains absolutely correct
Labour accusing somebody else of being childish and irresponsible? Would be funny under other circumstances.
If Kinnock had the gumption to table a VoNC in 1990 when facing a government majority over 90, surely Corbyn could do so now facing a Govt majority of three?
Or is he afraid some of his own backbenchers would abstain?
Under almost any scenario most of the 12 Scottish tories are gone. Ruth Davidson has been very quiet recently. A no deal Brexit is now more unlikely than ever it will be a no deal Exit.
There has to be a good chance Ruth Davidson will leave politics. Brexit has utterly undermined her political position.
I don't see the point of setting up a Scottish Conservative Party that is somewhat associated with a Brexit Party Except In Name that is so toxic they need to get away.
Unless the point is to set up a properly Scottish Conservative Party ahead of independence that Malcolm G etc could sign up to
Either way I don't see Davidson having any reason to stay around.
Are you scots?
My guess is that the tories will now hoover up the unionist vote and increase their representation at the expense of the SNP.
You are obviously not with that kind of lack of knowledge of Scottish politics. More likely the Lib Dems would benefit, despite how bad they are.
Malcolm, Your in a good mood this morning, you were almost being nice to the LDs there.
If by humped you mean won the seat you said she couldn't...
Are you as stupid as you make out?
oh look a squirrel, next you will say it is because she became a mother, 2nd rate leader of a 3rd rate party in Scotland, supported by losers. Keep up the good work , maybe a visit to Scotland would enlighten you.
Labour accusing somebody else of being childish and irresponsible? Would be funny under other circumstances.
If Kinnock had the gumption to table a VoNC in 1990 when facing a government majority over 90, surely Corbyn could do so now facing a Govt majority of three?
Or is he afraid some of his own backbenchers would abstain?
He’d rather turn up at a rally and rant than actually oppose this government.
If Kinnock had the gumption to table a VoNC in 1990 when facing a government majority over 90, surely Corbyn could do so now facing a Govt majority of three?
Or is he afraid some of his own backbenchers would abstain?
There is no point Labour tabling a VONC unless and until it can win it.
Most people won't understand the minutiae of why it would or wouldn't work they will just see that it is Swinson that is leading the charge against BoJo while Jezza seems frit.
As @HYUFD has noted, she is looking more like leader of the opposition than Corbyn.
If by humped you mean won the seat you said she couldn't...
Are you as stupid as you make out?
oh look a squirrel, next you will say it is because she became a mother, 2nd rate leader of a 3rd rate party in Scotland, supported by losers. Keep up the good work , maybe a visit to Scotland would enlighten you.
She even had to lie about Corbyn been on holiday during eu referendum. How sad is that.Surely there is enough to go on , without telling porkies.
Why don't the Labour moderates have another go at ousting Corbyn? The other two have just had leadership contests, why not have one of their own to fill the next six weeks?
Let me get this right, Corbyn is going to turn up at a rally calling for a GE but simultaneously refuse to table (And as LOTO he is the only person that can with it taking over all Gov't business) a VONC which is the only possible method to try and trigger an immediate GE.
If Kinnock had the gumption to table a VoNC in 1990 when facing a government majority over 90, surely Corbyn could do so now facing a Govt majority of three?
Or is he afraid some of his own backbenchers would abstain?
There is no point Labour tabling a VONC unless and until it can win it.
Would be bad politics.
Not trying to bring down the government looks like bad politics.....
One thing I don't get is this: the BXP did not stand at the last GE when Labour won these seats. So what BXP votes can the Tories "win back" to win seats they did not win last time? The only way the Tories win current Labour seats is to persuade people who have never voted Tory before to vote for them - or to hope that the LDs take enough Labour votes for them to come through the middle.
Cummings et al are relying on the people who delivered Leave the first time round. This next GE is not about traditional parties, it's a second referendum by proxy, using FPTP rather than a simple majority. So yes, the Cummings/Johnson plan relies absolutely on recruiting the working-class "left-behinds" who traditionally voted Labour, hence the emphasis on messages about law & order, the NHS etc. They'll accept some losses to the LibDems, but are mostly hoping the useful idiots in Labour will split the Remain vote to allow them to get a clear majority for the Tories as proxies for Leave.
A lot of people who voted in the referendum do not vote in elections. Getting them to turn out and then vote Tory will be a challenge.
Just winning over some Labour Leave voters and sending others to the Brexit Party while Labour Remainers go LD would be enough
Under almost any scenario most of the 12 Scottish tories are gone. Ruth Davidson has been very quiet recently. A no deal Brexit is now more unlikely than ever it will be a no deal Exit.
There has to be a good chance Ruth Davidson will leave politics. Brexit has utterly undermined her political position.
I don't see the point of setting up a Scottish Conservative Party that is somewhat associated with a Brexit Party Except In Name that is so toxic they need to get away.
Unless the point is to set up a properly Scottish Conservative Party ahead of independence that Malcolm G etc could sign up to
Either way I don't see Davidson having any reason to stay around.
Are you scots?
My guess is that the tories will now hoover up the unionist vote and increase their representation at the expense of the SNP.
You are obviously not with that kind of lack of knowledge of Scottish politics. More likely the Lib Dems would benefit, despite how bad they are.
Malcolm, Your in a good mood this morning, you were almost being nice to the LDs there.
One thing I don't get is this: the BXP did not stand at the last GE when Labour won these seats. So what BXP votes can the Tories "win back" to win seats they did not win last time? The only way the Tories win current Labour seats is to persuade people who have never voted Tory before to vote for them - or to hope that the LDs take enough Labour votes for them to come through the middle.
Cummings et al are relying on the people who delivered Leave the first time round. This next GE is not about traditional parties, it's a second referendum by proxy, using FPTP rather than a simple majority. So yes, the Cummings/Johnson plan relies absolutely on recruiting the working-class "left-behinds" who traditionally voted Labour, hence the emphasis on messages about law & order, the NHS etc. They'll accept some losses to the LibDems, but are mostly hoping the useful idiots in Labour will split the Remain vote to allow them to get a clear majority for the Tories as proxies for Leave.
A lot of people who voted in the referendum do not vote in elections. Getting them to turn out and then vote Tory will be a challenge.
Just winning over some Labour Leave voters and sending others to the Brexit Party while Labour Remainers go LD would be enough
It’s all dependent on a lot of moving parts.
HY’s strategy is based upon Labour Remainers decamping to Swinson’s team, while Conservative Remainers stay loyal to PM BJ.
If Kinnock had the gumption to table a VoNC in 1990 when facing a government majority over 90, surely Corbyn could do so now facing a Govt majority of three?
Or is he afraid some of his own backbenchers would abstain?
There is no point Labour tabling a VONC unless and until it can win it.
Would be bad politics.
Quite. It would unite the Tories and DUP behind Boris, which would be silly as he did so much good work to foster their divisions yesterday.
Comments
At most only about 20 Tory Remain seats would be lost to the LDs and maybe 10 to the SNP, so that still makes a net Tory gain of 20 to 70 under FPTP on voteshare something like Tory 32%, LD 23%, Labour 21%, Brexit Party 12%, Greens 5%, SNP 4% as is now plausible. That gives a clear Tory majority
Thatcher of course won 3 general elections from the right helped by a split liberal left as now
The fact is no member of the EU negotiating team is going to lose his/her job as a result of a no deal Brexit, but plenty of europeans may do. And they have votes. And national politicians listen to them because they have votes. And they wont take kindly to being used as expendable negotiating pawns by the EU negotiating team in defence of a political idea that is increasingly being "tested" in european national elections.
What I remain pretty sure about is that he is NOT serious about actually implementing No Deal. If he wins he would ratify a/the WA.
And if he loses it will be Ref2 with Lab/LD/SNP.
Therefore I carry on merrily laying 2019 No Deal at 3.5.
Johnson has the playground to himself until Corbyn goes. It's as simple as that
https://twitter.com/rowlsmanthorpe/status/1154160627524485121
1) When is his trip to Brussels to negotiate a WA scheduled?
2) What are his red lines?
The EU. You misunderstand what Varadkar has been saying. Avoiding a hard border is his prime objective in negotiations, precisely because he would not be able to prevent a hard border if negotiations fail.
Hence why he says stuff like "What people are saying is ‘give up the backstop’, which we know will work legally and operationally, in return for something that doesn’t yet exist but might exist in the future. I can’t do that to the border communities.”
"That" is a hard border, of the kind that already exists between EEA members like Norway and Switzerland and the EU. The Brexiteers seem to want a harder border than EEA membership implies, and no amount of technology will get round the need for veterinary and plant health checks between the EU and a third country.
The (very) broad brush populist program he outlined yesterday was not one deliverable quickly, and undeliverable in any event with a majority of two.
It was an outline manifesto.
Boris will also win a few Labour Leave voters who May could not while the LDs continue to eat into the Labour share letting the Tories win by default as you say
https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1154314234274177026
How did that work out for you?
Even in the UK British Indians are the largest Asian group, though of course Javid is of Pakistani heritage as Patel is of Indian heritage
One would hope this covers most of the country - but I am not as confident of that as I would like to be.
But that isn't a reason to vote for him any more than appointing a non-white woman was a good reason to make a lying nutter like Patel HS.
My guess is that the tories will now hoover up the unionist vote and increase their representation at the expense of the SNP.
This is almost as bad as your Cape of Good Hope.
a) The SNP only had 2 or 3 seats then
b) There was no UKIP/Brexit party
c) The Liberals/Alliance hadn't learnt about targeting then
d) The Tory vote was over 40% in all 3 elections and labour between 28 and 37%
Other than that a perfect analogy
And where did 'at most only about 20 Tory Remain seats will be lost to the LDs' come from? You state opinion as fact. You might be right, you might be wrong, but you don't back this up with anything except a very flawed analogy, that has no comparable data to today.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
The 2017 results are so far from recent polls that they are the worst place to start.
Being a distant distant second is hardly winning even in unionist la la land.
Another reason for Corbyn to be a passive leaver.
Are you as stupid as you make out?
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1154320592109281281
The danger is when the exposure comes on a matter of international importance: Iran, Nato, Hong Kong, Ukraine, etc.
We might very well be fucked then.
What about your analogy? Do you agree it is very flawed on all 4 counts?
But when it comes to splitting the Remain vote, Labour vs Lib Dem, to the benefit of the Cons it is hardly fair to describe just one side of this as 'useful idiots'.
In practice, the way to go will be seat by seat. If your priority is to stop Johnson/Farage and Hard Brexit, you vote for whichever party is best placed in your constituency.
Given that Remainers are just that little bit brighter than Leavers - this is generally accepted, I think - I expect that Lab/LD will benefit more from tactical voting in a 'Brexit GE' than Con/BP.
We will soon find out by the looks of it - since that election is looking ON.
If Kinnock had the gumption to table a VoNC in 1990 when facing a government majority over 90, surely Corbyn could do so now facing a Govt majority of three?
Or is he afraid some of his own backbenchers would abstain?
Pathetic.
Would be bad politics.
No BBC tv news = no opportunity for The Establishment to tell the plebs how they ought to think.
And then double that effect north of the border, where the BBC’s name is already dirt.
As @HYUFD has noted, she is looking more like leader of the opposition than Corbyn.
How sad is that.Surely there is enough to go on , without telling porkies.
It won't distract from the fact you predicted she couldn't win her seat, and she got "humped" all the way to Holyrood.
I suppose if I supported Nippy I might be as bitter and twisted as you at the spectacular failures of the SNP in "Government"
I think I spot the flaw in the strategy.