politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’ve resigned from the Conservative Party

williamglenn said:

notme2 said:

williamglenn said:

notme2 said:

tpfkar said:

I always hated Penny Mordaunt for her lies about Turkey in the referendum campaign and her refusal to apologise - Cameron should have sacked her on the spot - but actually disappointed she's going today, she seemed like a grown up in a group of kids.

that will be the Turkey that was four weeks away from entering Schengen at the time of the referendum?

No it wasn't. Do you really believe that? If so it just shows how effective the lies were.

Yes. It was their coup and the response to it which smashed it all away. Turkey joining schengen was a live issue at the referendum and perfectly legitimate to say entry to that was imminent. Of course full on membership was still some time away.

This is simply wrong. There was a deal for a visa waiver programme for travel to the Schengen zone, which is not the same thing as joining Schengen at all. Saying that Turkey was about to join Schengen would have been a lie.

I don't know where the Schengen stuff has come from, but the live issue at the time of the referendum was that Turkey had the EU over a barrel due to the refugee crisis, and the fear was they could use this fact to negotiate their way into EU membership, despite being nowhere near meeting the entry criteria (cf Greece and the Euro, only with added leverage).

I certainly remember this factoring into my thinking prior to the vote. I had no doubt whatsoever that Merkel et al would happily push it through if they thought they needed to. The fact that it never happened doesn't retrospectively mean it couldn't have, and for some reason everyone else on here seems to have forgotten about it.

JosiasJessop said:

On-topic:

The fact that Richard has had to make this undoubtedly hard decision says so much. I can only hope the Conservative Party finds itself in a position where a decent undoubted Conservative can happily rejoin.

Richard should stay in order to cast a vote in the next leadership election which may or may not be a long time hence.

AndyJS said:

Boris only had to wait 167 weeks between leaving the London Mayor's office and becoming PM today.

https://www.timeanddate.com/date/durationresult.html?d1=09&m1=05&y1=2016&d2=24&m2=7&y2=2019

Sadiq well placed for 2023?

AndyJS said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1154074965177753600

Bloody hell. Even fans of Dominic Raab didn't expect this.

How reliable are her job tips? No one else is reporting them

oxfordsimon said:

Whether or not you like them as people or approve of their politics, there is something worth noting about having two of the three big cabinet jobs taken by people of colour.

Of course promotions to these jobs should be on merit - but it is still a significant step in terms of representation

Garbage , race , colour , creed should play no part in it, talent should be the only prerequisite. It is coming to it when we are putting people in charge of the country purely based on their colour, we are nearing the bottom.

rottenborough said:

So there has been endless speculation whether we would get 'good' or 'bad' Boris.

I think we have got Richard Nixon late stage Boris. Mad.

Just as long as we don;t get the JFK-stage Boris. JFK was far worse than Nixon.

AlastairMeeks said:

This Cabinet must be worth 5% to the Lib Dems’ polling (cf the thread header).

I think 5% of likely voters is above the number of people who, at any given point in time, can actually name anyone who's in the Cabinet other than the PM.

I need a bloody big drink.

Tissue_Price said:

I'm very sorry indeed that we have lost Richard from the party. We need to remain a broad church and losing such thoughtful voices is not a good sign.

But the "world as it is" consists of a Parliament that has proven unwilling to ratify Brexit, despite (in my judgement) there being a latent majority for the much-maligned Withdrawal Agreement. There is plenty of blame to go around for that: Mrs May; the ERG; the Tory Remain wing; and plenty of Opposition MPs too. It is not surprising that this failure has provoked a reaction from both Tory MPs (whose support for Mr Johnson surprised me) and of course the membership.

If you believe that Brexit must happen, but that the current Parliament will not allow it (including by preventing No Deal, which I believe is properly within its authority), then an imminent General Election surely beckons, as per @Cyclefree's thread earlier.

As a Conservative, to believe that Jeremy Hunt would have had a better chance in such an election than Boris Johnson would seem to be engaging in exactly the sort of denial Richard accuses the rest of our members of. Like it or not, until Brexit is delivered we won't be winning back votes from those who would much rather it didn't happen. Elections are usually won on the centre ground, but, for once, the risk is genuinely greater on the flank.

I am sure Boris does not intend to leave with No Deal: as Richard suggests, "it won't be easy" is a significant understatement. Quite how Boris will finesse the election and the October 31st deadline remains to be seen: it's going to be an extraordinary three moths.

We were promised unicorns and got moths. Great.

Bloody hell.

Richard Nabavi is as loyal as a Conservative Party member gets.

This is something the party should take very seriously indeed.

https://twitter.com/DavidLeaver2/status/1154072240985661441

Johnson has obviously decided that if Grieve and Greening want to leave the party he's not going to bother to try to stop them.

williamglenn said:

IanB2 said:

AndyJS said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1154074965177753600

Bloody hell. Even fans of Dominic Raab didn't expect this.

How reliable are her job tips? No one else is reporting them

It lines up with what Steven Swinford was reporting earlier.

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1153984555403096064

Hunts gone.

Purge of the moderates to be replaced by Patel Raab Williamson

Great day for Labour

surbiton19 said:

OK. Sajid CoE, RaaB Foreign, Patel Home.

Who would have thunk it ?

Brexiteers taking back control!

IanB2 said:

Mundell to backbenches

should be the backwoods

I think we can now safely say that the hard right runs Britain.

Mel Stride out now.

I'll be honest, leaving my wife was easier than leaving the Tory party but this isn't my party anymore.

We don't as yet know the shape of Shagger's cabinet. But going off who is out its going to be full of mentalists. A bring back hanging Home Secretary. A where is Calais Foreign Secretary. Brilliant stuff. With jobs for Bridgen and Baker and the rest of the ERG still to come as he sacks literally everyone else.

You Tories who warned of the dangers of a Corbyn administration - look at the big blond plank in thine own eyes...

JosiasJessop said:

malcolmg said:

JohnO said:

Ross Thompson dead cert as replacement. Hic.

LOL, how far the mighty have fallen , how bad does it have to be that you have to dredge to such a level, the man aspires to be a cretin.

Eliza, can you request your drunken first-year programmers at the Uni of Strathclyde to insert the humour, politeness and positivity subroutines back into your program please?

Truth must out Josias, country is going down the plughole with this lot for sure

GIN1138 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1153984555403096064

What's CDL?

Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.

rottenborough said:

AlastairMeeks said:

This Cabinet must be worth 5% to the Lib Dems’ polling (cf the thread header).

And rising.

Raab and Patel in top jobs? The worst Cabinet in my lifetime by a country mile.

Fucking dangerous in fact.

One thing is for sure: the Conservatives are going to have to wait a long time before they can next campaign as a safe pair of hands.

I’ll be phoning mum later (loyal Conservative since forever and Leave voter). She doesn’t like Boris Johnson. Her reaction to this Cabinet is going to be fascinating. The next election might be the first general election when she doesn’t vote Conservative.

RochdalePioneers said:

Jezbollah still responding to every single thing that ever happens with "we need a general election". So call a confidence vote you gutless scum coward.

They’re holding a demo to demand an election on Friday, bless them.

El_Capitano said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This reshuffle has all the hallmarks of Dom Cummings

Unfettered right-wing, deluded and vengeful?

Well in his defence Dom is even more contemptuous of the ERG than I am.

DecrepitJohnL said:

dixiedean said:

This screams prorogation to me. Mmmm.

To me it looks more like Boris wants to ram through a deal so is packing the payroll vote and banking on the sacked to support him on policy grounds.

Every single spartan on the payroll??

Has he sacked enough people yet to send Brady’s replacement enough letters?

No mention yet of a certain JRM for cabinet?? might he get a role?

Stride has also been sacked.

Not many left from May's last cabinet - Javed, Gove, Cairns, Cox, Barclay, Truss, Rudd, Hancock, Baroness Evans, Lewis.

Ruth not at all gruntled re Mundell.

Hunt clearly sees himself as above lesser Cabinet positions.

nico67 said:

Has anyone heard the background music on Sky News .

I know it’s from a horror film but can’t place it .

Land of Hope and Glory?

williamglenn said:

Possibly a perceptive comment.

https://twitter.com/mrdavidwhitley/status/1154075261098438656

Corbyn is a gormless gutless clueless cretin. He knows that however excretingly bad Shagger's cabinet looks - and its spectacular so far - it'll still be more popular than he is

https://twitter.com/alistairburtuk/status/1154079658427736069?s=21

NickPalmer said:

nico67 said:

Has anyone heard the background music on Sky News .

I know it’s from a horror film but can’t place it .

Land of Hope and Glory?

Very funny !

nico67 said:

Has anyone heard the background music on Sky News .

I know it’s from a horror film but can’t place it .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1PH_Y8Xn4g

Slackbladder said:

No mention yet of a certain JRM for cabinet?? might he get a role?

I doubt he wants a Cabinet post. He is making oodles of cash in his day job. It has been suggested he might want to be Speaker but who knows?

DecrepitJohnL said:

dixiedean said:

This screams prorogation to me. Mmmm.

To me it looks more like Boris wants to ram through a deal so is packing the payroll vote and banking on the sacked to support him on policy grounds.

Surely the way to do that would be the opposite, put people who disagree with you on the payroll vote and have backbenchers who agree with you!

Casino_Royale said:

Has WilliamGlenn popped up yet to point out this is all part of Boris’s secret masterplan to discredit all the Leavers in Government, and Brexit once and for all, so he can Remain in the EU and lead us into the Euro?

Yes this could be his plan, but he doesn't know it yet.

There will be a lot of Conservatives thinking along the same lines as @Richard_Nabavi, and some of them will be elected local councillors.

I wonder if we might see defections sooner rather than later - and, with that, changes of control. There are one or two here in Oxfordshire I could see jumping, and the Conservative majority is very slender (supported only by a few independents).

midwinter said:

Reminiscent of the last episode in series one of Blackadder with BoJo as Prince Edmund.

I was thinking that episode of Breaking Bad. Or the last episode of "Genesis of the Daleks".

RochdalePioneers said:

SouthamObserver said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Jezbollah still responding to every single thing that ever happens with "we need a general election". So call a confidence vote you gutless scum coward.

They’re holding a demo to demand an election on Friday, bless them.

Perhaps Priti will have his arrested for something and have him interred on the Isle of Man for the rest of his days

The Douglas Martyr... he would love that

Barclay in Downing Street - sounds like a move rather remaining in post

Two Brains Priti Patel is about to get one of the most important jobs in government.

RochdalePioneers said:

Jezbollah still responding to every single thing that ever happens with "we need a general election". So call a confidence vote you gutless scum coward.

We've been here before - he was pushed into a VONC vote against May which strengthened her. It's worse than useless unless you think you might win. Putting one on dissolution day to be voted on when they get back sounds a more interesting tactic.

ON THREAD

As a totally tribal Liberal Democrat I genuinely feel sympathy for Richard. I am as committed to the ideals of my own party as he has been to his and although the Lib Dems test me occasionally, the bonds of friendship alone keep me on the campaign trail.

However in the 6 hours that BoJo has been PM, this shuffle confirms every one of everyone's worst fears about him.

The guy is taking a wrecking ball to party unity and whereas Mrs. May alienated her opponents, Johnson is alienating his allies.

How long before the first "Boris has blown it" headline?

Gove in downing st

williamglenn said:

nico67 said:

Has anyone heard the background music on Sky News .

I know it’s from a horror film but can’t place it .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1PH_Y8Xn4g

Brilliant thanks . Perhaps the theme to Titanic would have been more appropriate !

Right turn !

Fuck me.

When Boris mentioned a Unity strategy, I didn’t think he meant Unity Mitford.

JosiasJessop said:

steve_garner said:

May's government was by and large an abject failure, devoid of vision or inspiration and in some cases competence. The fact that a new PM is clearing out that government can surely not be a surprise to anyone. Only Hunt and Mordaunt of the departed are much of loss.

It was a government dominated by Brexit which, to her credit, she actually got a deal with the EU about (when many of the hardcore Brexiteers on here said she wouldn't). It's not unexpected to see the traitors being promoted by a fellow traitor.

It'll be funny to see the traitors demand loyalty, however.

It is exactly what Corbyn and his cronies do.

Corbyn with the record number of votes against his own party demanding loyalty from a parliamentary party that doesn't want him

bigjohnowls said:

williamglenn said:

IanB2 said:

AndyJS said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1154074965177753600

Bloody hell. Even fans of Dominic Raab didn't expect this.

How reliable are her job tips? No one else is reporting them

It lines up with what Steven Swinford was reporting earlier.

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1153984555403096064

Hunts gone.

Purge of the moderates to be replaced by Patel Raab Williamson

Great day for Labour

You might find another 3-4% of Tories leaving to the LDs, putting them top of the polls over the summer could result in a similar number moving from Labour to LD later in the year as they see LDs as the most realistic challenger.

It is not too late for Labour to return to normality, and if they do they could win a landslide, but it seems very unlikely given Corbyn and his gangs leadership so far.