politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Maybe Raab’s the one with the best chance of stopping Johnson?
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Gove 41
Hunt 46
Javid 33
Johnson 126
Raab 30
Stewart 37
Raab eliminated0 -
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New Thread Needed!!!!
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This really needs to be a Boris v Stewart final. They at least have differing views on Brexit (and much else). It would be a proper choice.
The others lack all charisma, ideas, everything.0 -
So the next round is a waste of time. Should be identical to this one except +30 for Johnson.0
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Damn. Backed Rory to get 40-49, but at least he's still in.
Raab was the only one I haven't backed at all for the top job.0 -
The risk in the debate for Johnson is when he is speaking and answering questions, not when others are on. So he is lucky (or arranged it carefully) that so many contenders means less airtime each, and not much scrutiny for him.0
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On reflection Rory must have a good chance of being in the last two0
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A good result. I can't wait to watch the debate tonight (if the little 'un goes to sleep in time ...)0
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What are people surprised about?0
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Thursday will have multiple ballots if needed.PeterMannion said:We may need a Friday ballot if only 1 knocked out at a time?
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Note Gove has also cut Hunt's lead from the last round by 1 in second place and as the sole non Boris Leaver might pick up some Raab votes tomorrow0
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Why? I know we joke he doesn't want to be challenged in any way, but he is ok at debates and speeches, and Rory could improve his standing among members massively and still be well well back. As for overall numbers, Boris still outstrips everyone else easily, and has that hold on the members.AndyJS said:The Stewart bandwagon is in full flow. Boris must be furious.
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Very good tip from Morris Dancer on the Ladbrokes band of 40-49 for Stewart at 11/1.
He was only 3 MPs off from that paying out.0 -
Stewart is going to make the Final 2 unless there is massive tactical voting - ie the Raab 30 will almost all need to go to Hunt to block Stewart.0
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You seemed to get it before my Twitter feed or BBC news.Byronic said:
you haven't seen???!Casino_Royale said:
You have a result?Byronic said:CHRIST!!!!!
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The bad news for Stewart is that Raab's 30 votes are very unlikely to switch to him.0
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Not sure about that, there are probably some 'anyone but Boris' votes in Raab's tally, which could go to Gove or Hunt.Endillion said:So the next round is a waste of time. Should be identical to this one except +30 for Johnson.
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Sajid to do the right thing and withdraw (says my book)0
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I got most of the candidates within 5 votes but that doesn't cut the mustard.0
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Raab's endorsement has huge weight for shaping the contest now. Give it to Gove and things get interesting.0
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Mr. Royale, value losers are my speciality
[I could've hedged a bit by backing the 30-39 band, which was bobbling around 2 or 1.8, but didn't, so my own fault really]. 0 -
There is only 9 votes in it, now, so I could easily see that happening.Byronic said:This really needs to be a Boris v Stewart final. They at least have differing views on Brexit (and much else). It would be a proper choice.
The others lack all charisma, ideas, everything.0 -
If Boris (up 12 since the first round) did donate then it was not to Hunt (up 3) so I think I was right this was disinformation.Casino_Royale said:So, Boris definitely donated then.
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That isn't a terribly impressive performance by anyone except Stewart. Boris adds a few, but is still well short of halfway, which shows just how many MPs are still very doubtful about him despite the air of inevitability he's been trying to project. Gove and Hunt barely move. Raab out, Javid will surely withdraw.
Certainly Stewart has the momentum, but he's starting from a very low base. He needs to hope Gove and Hunt stay in and he thrashes them in the next round.0 -
It was a good shout, bad luck.Morris_Dancer said:Damn. Backed Rory to get 40-49, but at least he's still in.
Raab was the only one I haven't backed at all for the top job.0 -
And presumably most of his vote goes to Stewart... enough to put him in second place?Alistair said:Sajid to do the right thing and withdraw (says my book)
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More likely that the MPs happy with BJ are backing him already, and the rest are those who don’t like him. We have been told for a long time by all sorts of commentators that Johnson isn’t popular with his colleagues, after all. Desperation will have eased that a little, but it won’t have gone away.DecrepitJohnL said:
If Boris (up 12 since the first round) did donate then it was not to Hunt (up 3) so I think I was right this was disinformation.Casino_Royale said:So, Boris definitely donated then.
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BBC debate at 8pm so Javid maybe has a quick decision to take.0
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Much more likely he was trying to have an excuse for his vote not moving by much. Which it hasn't.DecrepitJohnL said:
If Boris (up 12 since the first round) did donate then it was not to Hunt (up 3) so I think I was right this was disinformation.Casino_Royale said:So, Boris definitely donated then.
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It was a superb tip.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Royale, value losers are my speciality
[I could've hedged a bit by backing the 30-39 band, which was bobbling around 2 or 1.8, but didn't, so my own fault really].
I did hedge it with Ladbrokes, as it happened, so I'm ok.
This is one situation where my last minute bedwetting has paid off!0 -
Let's not forget that Raab was the second choice of Tory party members.0
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Mordaunt: "Lots of tactical voting"0
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Mr. Phukov, I think it was you who had the better shout as it being a value loser.
Still, that's betting.
I hope Boris implodes during the debate. I think he'll muddle through.0 -
Ideal result now for the party is Boris v Stewart in the members vote.
Boris brings back the Brexit Party vote, whilst Stewart shows there are normal tories around who care about more than Brexit.
Win-win.0 -
Javid will definitely want to be in the debate, I'd have thought.MikeL said:BBC debate at 8pm so Javid maybe has a quick decision to take.
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edit0
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The thread header is looking a bit, err...0
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Surprised we're not losing more than once candidate with each vote...0
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The question is why did Boris not go up more?
Maybe he DID do some tacticals and some people switched from Hunt to Stewart.0 -
Actually, I was trying to reverse-curse it for you. I failed.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Phukov, I think it was you who had the better shout as it being a value loser.
Still, that's betting.
I hope Boris implodes during the debate. I think he'll muddle through.0 -
He might want to. But a smart politician doesn't piss off the Beeb by posing as a candidate at 20.00 and withdrawing at 09.00.Richard_Nabavi said:
Javid will definitely want to be in the debate, I'd have thought.MikeL said:BBC debate at 8pm so Javid maybe has a quick decision to take.
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Boris has 40% of the MPs + will probably pick a few up from Raab supporters => Boris is in final two => Boris is next PM.
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I'm almost certain he did.DecrepitJohnL said:
If Boris (up 12 since the first round) did donate then it was not to Hunt (up 3) so I think I was right this was disinformation.Casino_Royale said:So, Boris definitely donated then.
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Yes, even if he withdraws tomorrow being in the debate allows him to shape how the contest goes. Hugely beneficial to whoever he backs.Richard_Nabavi said:
Javid will definitely want to be in the debate, I'd have thought.MikeL said:BBC debate at 8pm so Javid maybe has a quick decision to take.
Also the outside chance of everyone fucking up and him looking great.0 -
Why would Javid give up now, and before the debates, when anything could happenRichard_Nabavi said:
Javid will definitely want to be in the debate, I'd have thought.MikeL said:BBC debate at 8pm so Javid maybe has a quick decision to take.
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Mr. Royale, I regret not taking that course of action with my Con seats bet at the 2017 GE.
Mr. Phukov, one is grateful for your attempted blessing (benediction? benison?).
Anyway, I'm off. Play nicely, everyone.0 -
The really crafty option would be for Raab supporters to vote en masse for Javid in the next round to knock out Stewart.0
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You do come up with some cute ones - and this qualifies.IanB2 said:The risk in the debate for Johnson is when he is speaking and answering questions, not when others are on. So he is lucky (or arranged it carefully) that so many contenders means less airtime each, and not much scrutiny for him.
Do you think Hunt leaked to Stewart and Johnson donated to mitigate?0 -
I think that's what happened.MikeL said:The question is why did Boris not go up more?
Maybe he DID do some tacticals and some people switched from Hunt to Stewart.
Which means Hunt's position is even weaker than it looks.0 -
Boris's figure is frustrating, not low enough to start a 'stall' narrative, not high enough to call the contest over.0
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No laneydoethur said:
He might want to. But a smart politician doesn't piss off the Beeb by posing as a candidate at 20.00 and withdrawing at 09.00.Richard_Nabavi said:
Javid will definitely want to be in the debate, I'd have thought.MikeL said:BBC debate at 8pm so Javid maybe has a quick decision to take.
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new thread
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Anyway, good news for the country that the small risk of Raab premiership has been neutralised.1
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It's good publicityRichard_Nabavi said:
Javid will definitely want to be in the debate, I'd have thought.MikeL said:BBC debate at 8pm so Javid maybe has a quick decision to take.
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I was right in predicting Stewart would go through and Raab would be eliminated. The mistake I made was thinking Javid would also be knocked out.0
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Agreed. If you're ok with Boris at all, why the hell would you vote for Raab.Richard_Nabavi said:
Not sure about that, there are probably some 'anyone but Boris' votes in Raab's tally, which could go to Gove or Hunt.Endillion said:So the next round is a waste of time. Should be identical to this one except +30 for Johnson.
His vote will splinter fairly evenly, I should think.0 -
Javed not dropping out and the right move with the debate tonight and only just behind Stewart.
Stewart has come a long way by appealing to the hardcore remainers but he now needs to appeal to party centrists if he is to get to the final 2. I still think Hunt is more likely to reach the final 20 -
If that's right then may not be possible to get Hunt in the Final.Casino_Royale said:
I think that's what happened.MikeL said:The question is why did Boris not go up more?
Maybe he DID do some tacticals and some people switched from Hunt to Stewart.
Which means Hunt's position is even weaker than it looks.
I guess the question for Boris then becomes should he switch tacticals to Gove? With a fair number of Raab likely to go to Gove anyway then Gove could well move into 2nd place in the next ballot.
But my suspicion now is that Stewart will make the Final unless Boris goes for massive tactical voting - but that would require his vote count to fall - which he surely won't risk.0 -
When the facts change its time to change your opinion.MikeL said:
If that's right then may not be possible to get Hunt in the Final.Casino_Royale said:
I think that's what happened.MikeL said:The question is why did Boris not go up more?
Maybe he DID do some tacticals and some people switched from Hunt to Stewart.
Which means Hunt's position is even weaker than it looks.
I guess the question for Boris then becomes should he switch tacticals to Gove? With a fair number of Raab likely to go to Gove anyway then Gove could well move into 2nd place in the next ballot.
But my suspicion now is that Stewart will make the Final unless Boris goes for massive tactical voting - but that would require his vote count to fall - which he surely won't risk.
The best move for team Boris now might simply be to welcome any challenger, including Stewart.
It's not like Rory's plan to achieve Brexit is any more credible than Boris's.0 -
"why the hell would you vote for Raab" would have been enoughPeter_the_Punter said:
Agreed. If you're ok with Boris at all, why the hell would you vote for Raab.Richard_Nabavi said:
Not sure about that, there are probably some 'anyone but Boris' votes in Raab's tally, which could go to Gove or Hunt.Endillion said:So the next round is a waste of time. Should be identical to this one except +30 for Johnson.
His vote will splinter fairly evenly, I should think.0
This discussion has been closed.