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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Maybe Raab’s the one with the best chance of stopping Johnson?

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  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Byronic said:

    It has been raining here in London for about the last three hours solid.

    Cold, hard rain. Like late November. Wrist-slitting stuff.

    Lots of rain here in Sleepy Hollow, New York too, right now. Except here we get 100% humidity to go with it.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    Cyclefree said:



    You’re assuming that he did the actual writing and research himself. A literary agent and publisher friends of mine have some stories to tell about authors who do remarkably little actual writing.

    I had dinner with a chap who claimed to have written much of Boris’ Churchill Factor Book. Don’t know how true it was, however, the individual in question was a historian and has published on Churchill.

    Who knows.
    The Mail (yes, yes, I know) thinks similarly: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2822784/EPHRAIM-HARDCASTLE-BoJo-s-new-book-did-actually-write-himself.html
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    Whatever happens just after 6pm I will regret not doing whatever would have given me the better result, which will look more obvious with hindsight.

    The gambler's curse.

    If it helps, nobody ever died from realising a profit... :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217

    Javid coming in a bit.

    No-one is looking to back him at less than 1000 at the moment.
    No point leaving money up to back, one or more will be flying out to 1000 when the results come in. If you're matched high, that's just a pretty green number; no real profit
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Given that most people think Roryite MPs are rather shy, shouldn't we be expecting him to exceed declared expectations? Or is that element already factored in?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    rpjs said:

    Byronic said:

    It has been raining here in London for about the last three hours solid.

    Cold, hard rain. Like late November. Wrist-slitting stuff.

    Lots of rain here in Sleepy Hollow, New York too, right now. Except here we get 100% humidity to go with it.
    If you don't have a Headless Horseman, I shall have words with Tim Burton... :)
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    I don’t expect Rory to get through, sadly. I hope I’m wrong though.

    The Tory party has gone insane. It should simply merge with the Brexit party and be done with it.

    Then saner Tories can create a centre-right party worth voting for. Rather than doing what Labour moderates have done, namely, moan, whinge and sit on their arses doing nothing.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Cyclefree said:

    I don’t expect Rory to get through, sadly. I hope I’m wrong though.

    The Tory party has gone insane. It should simply merge with the Brexit party and be done with it.

    Then saner Tories can create a centre-right party worth voting for. Rather than doing what Labour moderates have done, namely, moan, whinge and sit on their arses doing nothing.

    I think Rory will be on 35 or 36 votes, and just make it.

    We'll find out soon enough.
  • PhukovPhukov Posts: 132
    Cyclefree said:

    I don’t expect Rory to get through, sadly. I hope I’m wrong though.

    The Tory party has gone insane. It should simply merge with the Brexit party and be done with it.

    Then saner Tories can create a centre-right party worth voting for. Rather than doing what Labour moderates have done, namely, moan, whinge and sit on their arses doing nothing.

    His price has tightened over the day. Get in there laying him if you think he's out.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    rpjs said:

    Byronic said:

    It has been raining here in London for about the last three hours solid.

    Cold, hard rain. Like late November. Wrist-slitting stuff.

    Lots of rain here in Sleepy Hollow, New York too, right now. Except here we get 100% humidity to go with it.
    I wonder what this appalling summer weather (so far) will do to GDP figures. Something quite nasty, I should think.

    Imagine all the cancelled fetes, postponed barbecues, rain-checked sports matches. Think of the beer not bought, the ice creams not sold, the summer clothes still on the racks in shops.

    And it's not just the UK, all of western Europe is enduring this deluge. So demand will be down in our major markets. Not good at all.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Miss Cyclefree, if Watson hadn't blocked/persuaded Labour MPs to stay in Corbyn's outfit, then there's be a critical mass and it'd be very easy to see [might yet happen] the Conservatives split in two, with half joining whatever Change UK was calling itself that week, and the other half effectively becoming BP.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Pulpstar said:

    Javid coming in a bit.

    No-one is looking to back him at less than 1000 at the moment.
    No point leaving money up to back, one or more will be flying out to 1000 when the results come in. If you're matched high, that's just a pretty green number; no real profit
    Yes, but if it is really is as close as rumours suggest between the three of them then grabbing £2 on the likely losers in the high 100s is value.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    If Javid is eliminated, look to who Kevin Foster might support next I reckon.
  • Byronic said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Meh, the decision to build it has been made and his side lost. Time to move on.
    Yes. There are lots of reason to abhor Boris, but changing your mind on a massively important infrastructural project that has been laboriously approved by parliament, and has now seen off its High Court challenges, is not a "U-turn", it is accepting a new reality.
    Wasn't Johnson at an important emergency meeting in Afghanistan when the vote was taken?
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179

    Cyclefree said:

    I don’t expect Rory to get through, sadly. I hope I’m wrong though.

    The Tory party has gone insane. It should simply merge with the Brexit party and be done with it.

    Then saner Tories can create a centre-right party worth voting for. Rather than doing what Labour moderates have done, namely, moan, whinge and sit on their arses doing nothing.

    I think Rory will be on 35 or 36 votes, and just make it.

    We'll find out soon enough.
    I think Rory could be a great centrist One Nation Tory PM. More so than Boris.

    But not in this context. He can win the next one post Brexit, presumably in Opposition. This has been a great run-out for him, and to build a platform with potential appeal to Labour or LD leaning voters.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    I think this could be rather a short-lived thread.

    If Raab survives today then his chances remain slim. Williamson as former Chief Whip has too much on him.
  • Well if it was him I'm afraid he's neither a good writer nor a good historian.

    The bloke I met is referenced in this article as “Research Assistant:” https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/london-mayor-boris-johnson-winston-churchill-legacy-180953538/

    I’ve not read the book. However, I do find it fascinating that so many politicians love the appeal to ego/reflected glory of writing biography (or something worthy). Some do it well. But, others should probably stick to the kissing babies.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Cyclefree said:

    I don’t expect Rory to get through, sadly. I hope I’m wrong though.

    The Tory party has gone insane. It should simply merge with the Brexit party and be done with it.

    Then saner Tories can create a centre-right party worth voting for. Rather than doing what Labour moderates have done, namely, moan, whinge and sit on their arses doing nothing.

    They could call it Change UK, or TIG
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    £2 @ 399/1 on Saj is a pretty fun bet, if you only go in for small stakes
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. McLean, yes, he was urgently competing in the World Hide and Seek Championship.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    Final prediction:

    Johnson 146 (+32)
    Hunt 40 (-3)
    Gove 35 (-2)
    Stewart 33 (+14)
    Raab 31 (+4)
    Javid 28 (+5)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217

    Pulpstar said:

    Javid coming in a bit.

    No-one is looking to back him at less than 1000 at the moment.
    No point leaving money up to back, one or more will be flying out to 1000 when the results come in. If you're matched high, that's just a pretty green number; no real profit
    Yes, but if it is really is as close as rumours suggest between the three of them then grabbing £2 on the likely losers in the high 100s is value.
    You're right about that. £2 on the Saj at 400.0. But leaving £2 up on him to be matched at 800 is no good as a ploy now - matched = lost !
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019
    Raab is probably the likeliest to beat Boris with members I agree, his problem is he comes across as Rik Mayall's Alan B'stard
  • PhukovPhukov Posts: 132
    Gove drifting slightly...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    dixiedean said:

    Phukov said:

    I'm praying for a 4-way tie for last place.

    How about 5 tied on 32 each? That would be fitting.
    Bozza on 153 ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Pulpstar said:

    If Javid is eliminated, look to who Kevin Foster might support next I reckon.

    I was ar university with Kevin and yes he has a shrewd political brain
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    AndyJS said:

    Final prediction:

    Johnson 146
    Hunt 40
    Gove 35
    Stewart 33
    Raab 31
    Javid 28

    If that's true, by the skin of the proverbial.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    AndyJS said:

    Final prediction:

    Johnson 146
    Hunt 40
    Gove 35
    Stewart 33
    Raab 31
    Javid 28

    Anyone would be better than Boris, excluding any other ERG loons
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Byronic said:

    rpjs said:

    Byronic said:

    It has been raining here in London for about the last three hours solid.

    Cold, hard rain. Like late November. Wrist-slitting stuff.

    Lots of rain here in Sleepy Hollow, New York too, right now. Except here we get 100% humidity to go with it.
    I wonder what this appalling summer weather (so far) will do to GDP figures. Something quite nasty, I should think.

    Imagine all the cancelled fetes, postponed barbecues, rain-checked sports matches. Think of the beer not bought, the ice creams not sold, the summer clothes still on the racks in shops.

    And it's not just the UK, all of western Europe is enduring this deluge. So demand will be down in our major markets. Not good at all.
    Mind you it is cooler on the tube than last year's baking hot summer so far
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    HYUFD said:

    Raab is probably the likeliest to beat Boris with members I agree, his problem is he comes across as Rik Mayall's Alan B'stard

    Greg Davies. Seriously, it's spooky.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    edited June 2019

    AndyJS said:

    Final prediction:

    Johnson 146
    Hunt 40
    Gove 35
    Stewart 33
    Raab 31
    Javid 28

    If that's true, by the skin of the proverbial.
    Those numbers would be a horror story for Stewart layers; he'll go odds on with that lot.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Final prediction:

    Johnson 146
    Hunt 40
    Gove 35
    Stewart 33
    Raab 31
    Javid 28

    If that's true, by the skin of the proverbial.
    Those numbers would be a horror story for Stewart layers; he'll go odds on with that lot.
    Odds on??
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    Cyclefree said:

    I don’t expect Rory to get through, sadly. I hope I’m wrong though.

    The Tory party has gone insane. It should simply merge with the Brexit party and be done with it.

    Then saner Tories can create a centre-right party worth voting for. Rather than doing what Labour moderates have done, namely, moan, whinge and sit on their arses doing nothing.

    I think Rory will be on 35 or 36 votes, and just make it.

    We'll find out soon enough.
    I think Rory could be a great centrist One Nation Tory PM. More so than Boris.

    But not in this context. He can win the next one post Brexit, presumably in Opposition. This has been a great run-out for him, and to build a platform with potential appeal to Labour or LD leaning voters.
    The way the Tories are, they will probably try one or two even more nuttier leaders than Johnson before getting the message.
  • PhukovPhukov Posts: 132
    Phukov said:

    Gove drifting slightly...

    Now coming back in, whilst Rory drifts.
    It's all just speculation, but it's fun to watch
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Byronic said:

    rpjs said:

    Byronic said:

    It has been raining here in London for about the last three hours solid.

    Cold, hard rain. Like late November. Wrist-slitting stuff.

    Lots of rain here in Sleepy Hollow, New York too, right now. Except here we get 100% humidity to go with it.
    I wonder what this appalling summer weather (so far) will do to GDP figures. Something quite nasty, I should think.

    Imagine all the cancelled fetes, postponed barbecues, rain-checked sports matches. Think of the beer not bought, the ice creams not sold, the summer clothes still on the racks in shops.

    And it's not just the UK, all of western Europe is enduring this deluge. So demand will be down in our major markets. Not good at all.
    F**k summer-related business.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    AndyJS said:

    Final prediction:

    Johnson 146 (+32)
    Hunt 40 (-3)
    Gove 35 (-2)
    Stewart 33 (+14)
    Raab 31 (+4)
    Javid 28 (+5)

    Woah, ballsy call dude! If true, it'll be one for the bookmarks!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Final prediction:

    Johnson 146
    Hunt 40
    Gove 35
    Stewart 33
    Raab 31
    Javid 28

    If that's true, by the skin of the proverbial.
    Those numbers would be a horror story for Stewart layers; he'll go odds on with that lot.
    Odds on??
    Leadsom was the Jeb Bush, Stewart could be the Rubio lol
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    AndyJS said:

    Final prediction:

    Johnson 146 (+32)
    Hunt 40 (-3)
    Gove 35 (-2)
    Stewart 33 (+14)
    Raab 31 (+4)
    Javid 28 (+5)

    If that was the result then Stewart would make the Final 2 for sure.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Final prediction:

    Johnson 146
    Hunt 40
    Gove 35
    Stewart 33
    Raab 31
    Javid 28

    If that's true, by the skin of the proverbial.
    Those numbers would be a horror story for Stewart layers; he'll go odds on with that lot.
    Odds on??
    Leadsom was the Jeb Bush, Stewart could be the Rubio lol
    If he does go odds-on I'll be laying him like a dockside hooker.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    AndyJS said:

    Final prediction:

    Johnson 146 (+32)
    Hunt 40 (-3)
    Gove 35 (-2)
    Stewart 33 (+14)
    Raab 31 (+4)
    Javid 28 (+5)

    if Javid goes out, as likely, I hope whoever wins keeps him in situ. He's a good Home Secretary.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    OllyT said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I

    rkrkrk said:

    Pick your poison.

    One of the few beneficial side effects of Brexit is that it looks set to leave the Conservative party at best unelectable for a generation. The only choice is the path to irrelevance.

    Will give me evens that the Tories are out of power for the next 20 years following a GE!?
    Such long term bets are not attractive, no. But I'm expecting the Conservatives to get hammered at the next election and if any version resurfaces, it will look very different from the current incarnation, just as the Conservative party of 1874 looked very different from the one of 1846.
    The destruction of the current Tory party, which is really the Brexit party in all but name, is to be welcomed.

    Last night Rory gave a very eloquent statement about what he saw Conservatism as being. It was quite appealing - largely because it is so very different from what is currently on offer.

    If I have time later I will post the film of what he said. Of course, by then Rory may be out of this campaign but he seems to me atm the only hope of a saner centre right party.
    I wonder what the impact of Rory switching to the LDs would be? It must be a possibility if he realises that he doesn't really belong in the current Tory Party.
    Chuka has a rival to be the British Macron/Obama and saviour of the liberal Remainers?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    I may need to change the sheets.

    :fearful:
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2019
    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I

    rkrkrk said:

    Pick your poison.

    One of the few beneficial side effects of Brexit is that it looks set to leave the Conservative party at best unelectable for a generation. The only choice is the path to irrelevance.

    Will give me evens that the Tories are out of power for the next 20 years following a GE!?
    Such long term bets are not attractive, no. But I'm expecting the Conservatives to get hammered at the next election and if any version resurfaces, it will look very different from the current incarnation, just as the Conservative party of 1874 looked very different from the one of 1846.
    The destruction of the current Tory party, which is really the Brexit party in all but name, is to be welcomed.

    Last night Rory gave a very eloquent statement about what he saw Conservatism as being. It was quite appealing - largely because it is so very different from what is currently on offer.

    If I have time later I will post the film of what he said. Of course, by then Rory may be out of this campaign but he seems to me atm the only hope of a saner centre right party.
    I wonder what the impact of Rory switching to the LDs would be? It must be a possibility if he realises that he doesn't really belong in the current Tory Party.
    Chuka has a rival to be the British Macron/Obama and saviour of the liberal Remainers?
    When people are bored of Brexit, someone should write a thread on the amazing crash and burn of Change UK/TIG
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Royale, could be worse. Could be 1399-1400, waiting in Byzantium.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I

    rkrkrk said:

    Pick your poison.

    One of the few beneficial side effects of Brexit is that it looks set to leave the Conservative party at best unelectable for a generation. The only choice is the path to irrelevance.

    Will give me evens that the Tories are out of power for the next 20 years following a GE!?
    Such long term bets are not attractive, no. But I'm expecting the Conservatives to get hammered at the next election and if any version resurfaces, it will look very different from the current incarnation, just as the Conservative party of 1874 looked very different from the one of 1846.
    The destruction of the current Tory party, which is really the Brexit party in all but name, is to be welcomed.

    Last night Rory gave a very eloquent statement about what he saw Conservatism as being. It was quite appealing - largely because it is so very different from what is currently on offer.

    If I have time later I will post the film of what he said. Of course, by then Rory may be out of this campaign but he seems to me atm the only hope of a saner centre right party.
    I wonder what the impact of Rory switching to the LDs would be? It must be a possibility if he realises that he doesn't really belong in the current Tory Party.
    Chuka has a rival to be the British Macron/Obama and saviour of the liberal Remainers?
    Rory has a 25k majority over the Liberals in Penrith. And he would never give up his borders seat.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1141002379338211328

    :lol: As predicted here on PB. This is going to be a clusterf**k that makes May's tenure looking balanced.

    Boris' Brexit strategy was revealed last night, get a FTA for GB and hold a referendum in NI on the backstop
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Final prediction:

    Johnson 146
    Hunt 40
    Gove 35
    Stewart 33
    Raab 31
    Javid 28

    If that's true, by the skin of the proverbial.
    Those numbers would be a horror story for Stewart layers; he'll go odds on with that lot.
    Odds on??
    Leadsom was the Jeb Bush, Stewart could be the Rubio lol
    Stewart is the Kasich, Javid is the Rubio, Hunt is the Jeb Bush, Gove is the Rand Paul and Raab is the Ted Cruz. Boris of course is the Trump
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MikeL said:

    AndyJS said:

    Final prediction:

    Johnson 146 (+32)
    Hunt 40 (-3)
    Gove 35 (-2)
    Stewart 33 (+14)
    Raab 31 (+4)
    Javid 28 (+5)

    If that was the result then Stewart would make the Final 2 for sure.
    You think Raab's votes will transfer to Stewart?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Final prediction:

    Johnson 138
    Hunt 50
    Gove 39
    Stewart 34
    Raab 25
    Javid 27
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    viewcode said:

    AndyJS said:

    Final prediction:

    Johnson 146 (+32)
    Hunt 40 (-3)
    Gove 35 (-2)
    Stewart 33 (+14)
    Raab 31 (+4)
    Javid 28 (+5)

    Woah, ballsy call dude! If true, it'll be one for the bookmarks!
    I underestimated Boris last time so I may have gone in the opposite direction this time.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491

    Mr. Royale, could be worse. Could be 1399-1400, waiting in Byzantium.

    The market and the media seem to think Stewart is Scipio at the Battle of Zama.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217

    MikeL said:

    AndyJS said:

    Final prediction:

    Johnson 146 (+32)
    Hunt 40 (-3)
    Gove 35 (-2)
    Stewart 33 (+14)
    Raab 31 (+4)
    Javid 28 (+5)

    If that was the result then Stewart would make the Final 2 for sure.
    You think Raab's votes will transfer to Stewart?
    No. JAVID might
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Last time Boris had 90 endorsements and got 114. This time he has an extra 22 backers at 112.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I

    rkrkrk said:

    Pick your poison.

    One of the few beneficial side effects of Brexit is that it looks set to leave the Conservative party at best unelectable for a generation. The only choice is the path to irrelevance.

    Will give me evens that the Tories are out of power for the next 20 years following a GE!?
    Such long term bets are not attractive, no. But I'm expecting the Conservatives to get hammered at the next election and if any version resurfaces, it will look very different from the current incarnation, just as the Conservative party of 1874 looked very different from the one of 1846.
    The destruction of the current Tory party, which is really the Brexit party in all but name, is to be welcomed.

    Last night Rory gave a very eloquent statement about what he saw Conservatism as being. It was quite appealing - largely because it is so very different from what is currently on offer.

    If I have time later I will post the film of what he said. Of course, by then Rory may be out of this campaign but he seems to me atm the only hope of a saner centre right party.
    I wonder what the impact of Rory switching to the LDs would be? It must be a possibility if he realises that he doesn't really belong in the current Tory Party.
    Chuka has a rival to be the British Macron/Obama and saviour of the liberal Remainers?
    When people are bored of Brexit, someone should write a thread on the amazing crash and burn of Change UK/TIG
    Anna Soubry?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    IDS latest on Johnson, from the BBC:
    "He says the policy is clear: Theresa May's withdrawal agreement is "off the table, that’s dead", but Mr Johnson would negotiate a simpler transitional arrangement.
    Mr Johnson will also ensure the UK can leave the EU on 31 October "whatever, regardless of the arguments and circumstances", he says."
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    AndyJS said:

    Last time Boris had 90 endorsements and got 114. This time he has an extra 22 backers at 112.

    What about all the votes Boris is allegedly lending other candidates?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    MikeL said:

    AndyJS said:

    Final prediction:

    Johnson 146 (+32)
    Hunt 40 (-3)
    Gove 35 (-2)
    Stewart 33 (+14)
    Raab 31 (+4)
    Javid 28 (+5)

    If that was the result then Stewart would make the Final 2 for sure.
    Not sure, he may have already got most of his potential voters by this round. Obviously he'll pick up a lot of Javid supporters but proportionally speaking he may not get such a big increase again.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Royale, if Stewart actually wins it'd be more impressive than that. It'd be Aetius defeating Attila, or Tigranes the Great managing to lose the Battle of Tigranocerta.

    In fact, it might be the Battle of Cannae.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    My book is beautifully balanced but I am still nervous. The future of the country could be decided in the next 5 minutes.
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    We may need a Friday ballot if only 1 knocked out at a time?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    AndyJS said:

    Last time Boris had 90 endorsements and got 114. This time he has an extra 22 backers at 112.

    How many of those 22 will be votes last time held back from public endorsements until afterwards to maintain momentum? How many will genuinely be converts?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    AndyJS said:

    MikeL said:

    AndyJS said:

    Final prediction:

    Johnson 146 (+32)
    Hunt 40 (-3)
    Gove 35 (-2)
    Stewart 33 (+14)
    Raab 31 (+4)
    Javid 28 (+5)

    If that was the result then Stewart would make the Final 2 for sure.
    Not sure, he may have already got most of his potential voters by this round. Obviously he'll pick up a lot of Javid supporters but proportionally speaking he may not get such a big increase again.
    If he wants to go further he'll have to stroke a lot of Tory MPs egos.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited June 2019
    Byronic said:

    AndyJS said:

    Final prediction:

    Johnson 146 (+32)
    Hunt 40 (-3)
    Gove 35 (-2)
    Stewart 33 (+14)
    Raab 31 (+4)
    Javid 28 (+5)

    if Javid goes out, as likely, I hope whoever wins keeps him in situ. He's a good Home Secretary.
    It's a tricky calculation for a winner I suppose, when some very high ranking people ran against you. Some people can be rewarded with junior minister posts and mere Cabinet level posts (DiFD is going free soon), but the big beasts will want big jobs. Surely Williamson for one will want a big job for his buttkissing, I mean loyalty.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    kinabalu said:

    My book is beautifully balanced but I am still nervous. The future of the country could be decided in the next 5 minutes.

    I'm all green. But only just on Boris. I was ok until all sorts of unheard ofs threw their hats in.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217

    I may need to change the sheets.

    :fearful:

    Brown trouser time if Rory outperforms ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Byronic said:

    If Javid goes out, as likely, I hope whoever wins keeps him in situ. He's a good Home Secretary.

    Unsackable I think.

    Only completely bald person in the cabinet.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    Byronic said:

    AndyJS said:

    Final prediction:

    Johnson 146 (+32)
    Hunt 40 (-3)
    Gove 35 (-2)
    Stewart 33 (+14)
    Raab 31 (+4)
    Javid 28 (+5)

    if Javid goes out, as likely, I hope whoever wins keeps him in situ. He's a good Home Secretary.
    It's a tricky calculation for a winner I suppose, when some very high ranking people ran against you. Some people can be rewarded with junior minister posts and mere Cabinet level posts (DiFD is going free soon), but the big beasts will want big jobs. Surely Williamson for one will want a big job for his butkissing, I mean loyalty.
    He should do what he is good at and be Chief Whip.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Pulpstar said:

    I may need to change the sheets.

    :fearful:

    Brown trouser time if Rory outperforms ?
    No, I already shat the bed on that one and greened up to zero.

    Too many straws in the wind he's just made it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Did The Saj really say that trying to the WA through in its current form, which he backed multiple times, was remaining in the EU? However unreaslistic that plan is it is not that.

    https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1140881691931750400
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Squeaky bum time.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    Bing, bong, bing bong, bing, bong, bing bong...DONG! And here is the news with Trevor McDoughnot. And the winner is...
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    HYUFD said:
    It'll be very interesting to see how that compares to the result!
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    FFS
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 265
    Wow.....didnt see that coming!
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    CHRIST!!!!!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Byronic said:

    CHRIST!!!!!

    You have a result?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Rory Stewart looks like a PG Tips monkey, the ill fitting suit makes it worse (or better if you like PG Tips monkeys)
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    CHRIST!!!!!

    You have a result?
    you haven't seen???!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    Result:

    Johnson 126
    Hunt 46
    Gove 41
    Stewart 37
    Javid 33
    Raab 30 — ELIMINATED
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Byronic said:

    FFS

    Penddu said:

    Wow.....didnt see that coming!

    Byronic said:

    CHRIST!!!!!

    What has happened?! Such teasing.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    Did The Saj really say that trying to the WA through in its current form, which he backed multiple times, was remaining in the EU? However unreaslistic that plan is it is not that.

    https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1140881691931750400

    I assume he is referring to Stewart having no alternative guarantee of exit eg no deal if the WA can not be passed.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    edited June 2019
    Raab out - very good
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Taxi for Raab.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,709
    Go Rory! ;)
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Conservative Leadership Election - Round 2

    Gove - 41
    Hunt - 46
    Javid - 33
    Johnson - 126
    Raab - 30
    Stewart - 37
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    37!
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Soooo boring. Only one out.

    Stewart has the mo, tho
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    Raab and Stewart out

    Eh? Rory got 37.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    My prediction was a bit crap this time.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Raab out. Thank fuck!
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    Stewart huge momentum!
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    kle4 said:

    Byronic said:

    FFS

    Penddu said:

    Wow.....didnt see that coming!

    Byronic said:

    CHRIST!!!!!

    What has happened?! Such teasing.
    I fear this is 'LOLz'
  • PhukovPhukov Posts: 132
    I thought this header would look ridiculous. So it proved.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    AndyJS said:

    Result:

    Johnson 126
    Hunt 46
    Gove 41
    Stewart 37
    Javid 33
    Raab 30 — ELIMINATED

    Honestly closer for Raab than I thought he would get. The Saj running things very close.

    So, 2/3 at least of Raab's to Boris?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133

    Raab and Stewart out

    Eh? Rory got 37.
    My error but corrected
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Radio 4 still speculating about what the result might be!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    The Stewart bandwagon is in full flow. Boris must be furious.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    So, Boris definitely donated then.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Johnson - 126
    Hunt - 46
    Gove - 41
    Stewart - 37
    Javid - 33
    Raab - 30

This discussion has been closed.