The risk in the debate for Johnson is when he is speaking and answering questions, not when others are on. So he is lucky (or arranged it carefully) that so many contenders means less airtime each, and not much scrutiny for him.
The Stewart bandwagon is in full flow. Boris must be furious.
Why? I know we joke he doesn't want to be challenged in any way, but he is ok at debates and speeches, and Rory could improve his standing among members massively and still be well well back. As for overall numbers, Boris still outstrips everyone else easily, and has that hold on the members.
Mr. Royale, value losers are my speciality [I could've hedged a bit by backing the 30-39 band, which was bobbling around 2 or 1.8, but didn't, so my own fault really].
That isn't a terribly impressive performance by anyone except Stewart. Boris adds a few, but is still well short of halfway, which shows just how many MPs are still very doubtful about him despite the air of inevitability he's been trying to project. Gove and Hunt barely move. Raab out, Javid will surely withdraw.
Certainly Stewart has the momentum, but he's starting from a very low base. He needs to hope Gove and Hunt stay in and he thrashes them in the next round.
If Boris (up 12 since the first round) did donate then it was not to Hunt (up 3) so I think I was right this was disinformation.
More likely that the MPs happy with BJ are backing him already, and the rest are those who don’t like him. We have been told for a long time by all sorts of commentators that Johnson isn’t popular with his colleagues, after all. Desperation will have eased that a little, but it won’t have gone away.
Mr. Royale, value losers are my speciality [I could've hedged a bit by backing the 30-39 band, which was bobbling around 2 or 1.8, but didn't, so my own fault really].
It was a superb tip.
I did hedge it with Ladbrokes, as it happened, so I'm ok.
This is one situation where my last minute bedwetting has paid off!
The risk in the debate for Johnson is when he is speaking and answering questions, not when others are on. So he is lucky (or arranged it carefully) that so many contenders means less airtime each, and not much scrutiny for him.
You do come up with some cute ones - and this qualifies.
Do you think Hunt leaked to Stewart and Johnson donated to mitigate?
Javed not dropping out and the right move with the debate tonight and only just behind Stewart.
Stewart has come a long way by appealing to the hardcore remainers but he now needs to appeal to party centrists if he is to get to the final 2. I still think Hunt is more likely to reach the final 2
Maybe he DID do some tacticals and some people switched from Hunt to Stewart.
I think that's what happened.
Which means Hunt's position is even weaker than it looks.
If that's right then may not be possible to get Hunt in the Final.
I guess the question for Boris then becomes should he switch tacticals to Gove? With a fair number of Raab likely to go to Gove anyway then Gove could well move into 2nd place in the next ballot.
But my suspicion now is that Stewart will make the Final unless Boris goes for massive tactical voting - but that would require his vote count to fall - which he surely won't risk.
Maybe he DID do some tacticals and some people switched from Hunt to Stewart.
I think that's what happened.
Which means Hunt's position is even weaker than it looks.
If that's right then may not be possible to get Hunt in the Final.
I guess the question for Boris then becomes should he switch tacticals to Gove? With a fair number of Raab likely to go to Gove anyway then Gove could well move into 2nd place in the next ballot.
But my suspicion now is that Stewart will make the Final unless Boris goes for massive tactical voting - but that would require his vote count to fall - which he surely won't risk.
When the facts change its time to change your opinion.
The best move for team Boris now might simply be to welcome any challenger, including Stewart.
It's not like Rory's plan to achieve Brexit is any more credible than Boris's.
Comments
Hunt 46
Javid 33
Johnson 126
Raab 30
Stewart 37
Raab eliminated
This ramping is absurd.
The others lack all charisma, ideas, everything.
Raab was the only one I haven't backed at all for the top job.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125574963
He was only 3 MPs off from that paying out.
Certainly Stewart has the momentum, but he's starting from a very low base. He needs to hope Gove and Hunt stay in and he thrashes them in the next round.
I did hedge it with Ladbrokes, as it happened, so I'm ok.
This is one situation where my last minute bedwetting has paid off!
Still, that's betting.
I hope Boris implodes during the debate. I think he'll muddle through.
Boris brings back the Brexit Party vote, whilst Stewart shows there are normal tories around who care about more than Brexit.
Win-win.
Maybe he DID do some tacticals and some people switched from Hunt to Stewart.
Boris has 40% of the MPs + will probably pick a few up from Raab supporters => Boris is in final two => Boris is next PM.
Also the outside chance of everyone fucking up and him looking great.
Mr. Phukov, one is grateful for your attempted blessing (benediction? benison?).
Anyway, I'm off. Play nicely, everyone.
Do you think Hunt leaked to Stewart and Johnson donated to mitigate?
Which means Hunt's position is even weaker than it looks.
new thread
His vote will splinter fairly evenly, I should think.
Stewart has come a long way by appealing to the hardcore remainers but he now needs to appeal to party centrists if he is to get to the final 2. I still think Hunt is more likely to reach the final 2
I guess the question for Boris then becomes should he switch tacticals to Gove? With a fair number of Raab likely to go to Gove anyway then Gove could well move into 2nd place in the next ballot.
But my suspicion now is that Stewart will make the Final unless Boris goes for massive tactical voting - but that would require his vote count to fall - which he surely won't risk.
The best move for team Boris now might simply be to welcome any challenger, including Stewart.
It's not like Rory's plan to achieve Brexit is any more credible than Boris's.