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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Maybe Raab’s the one with the best chance of stopping Johnson?

SystemSystem Posts: 12,171
edited June 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Maybe Raab’s the one with the best chance of stopping Johnson?

Now, don’t get me wrong. I am not a fan of Raab in terms of electability to the wider public. He comes across as wooden and stiff and non-likeable (although he has an impressive back story). Moreover,  some of his comments around feminism may open him up to attack later, though many in the membership may cheer his stance. However, if you don’t want Johnson as your PM, he is your man.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Out of the fireplace and dousing yourself in petrol before setting yourself on fire
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    I'd be happy with Raab or Boris.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    Dominic Raab had a setback earlier today when Andrea Leadsom endorsed Boris. He would have hoped to pick up most of Leadsom and McVey's votes.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Raab is a thicker, more malicious and more untrustworthy version of Boris. Please no.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    BBC R4 - Katy Balls of the "Spectator" indicates that second place camps fear Rory Stewart will hoover up their support if he makes round 3.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pick your poison.

    One of the few beneficial side effects of Brexit is that it looks set to leave the Conservative party at best unelectable for a generation. The only choice is the path to irrelevance.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    Charles said:


    Not quite. I argued:

    (a) if Remainers had swung behind a "damage limitation strategy" for Brexit then we would likely have ended up in a better place - probably EFTA or Norway+ - as they would have been able to team up with the moderate Leavers. Instead they took a firm position, lost the moderate leavers, etc etc

    (b) If they had teamed up and we had ended up in exactly the same place as we have today, they would have a better argument that "we tried really hard and it's awful, do you want to think again?". At the moment all they have is "we dug our heels in and did our best to screw the whole thing up and we've succeeded. Do you want to think again?".

    It's not trying to blame anyone specifically - it was part of a debate as to whether the current situation was inevitable or not.

    Agree with a) from the Labour/LD/SNP perspective. In addition, Corbyn complicates things. Those who perhaps could have compromised, saw Brexit as an opportunity to attack him.

    But also, May didn't want to compromise either and pursued her strategy of only getting Tory/DUP votes well past the point it was obvious she couldn't succeed.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    Cyclefree said:

    Raab is a thicker, more malicious and more untrustworthy version of Boris. Please no.

    Boris it is then.....
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Pick your poison.

    One of the few beneficial side effects of Brexit is that it looks set to leave the Conservative party at best unelectable for a generation. The only choice is the path to irrelevance.

    Will give me evens that the Tories are out of power for the next 20 years following a GE!?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    What?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    For those in the know: what time is the vote, and what time is the debate?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    RobD said:

    For those in the know: what time is the vote, and what time is the debate?

    The vote is between 3pm and 5pm with a result expected at about 6pm or just afterwards. The debate starts at 8pm.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48673698
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    rkrkrk said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Pick your poison.

    One of the few beneficial side effects of Brexit is that it looks set to leave the Conservative party at best unelectable for a generation. The only choice is the path to irrelevance.

    Will give me evens that the Tories are out of power for the next 20 years following a GE!?
    Such long term bets are not attractive, no. But I'm expecting the Conservatives to get hammered at the next election and if any version resurfaces, it will look very different from the current incarnation, just as the Conservative party of 1874 looked very different from the one of 1846.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Voting 3-5pm Declaration about 6pm . Debate BBC1 8-9pm.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    If Raab is the answer to the nation's problems we as a nation are much more lightweight and stupid than even I thought possible
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    New Raab video:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nDRIOzgNvWM
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/Robert___Harris/status/1140965491353239552
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    I
    AlastairMeeks said:

    rkrkrk said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Pick your poison.

    One of the few beneficial side effects of Brexit is that it looks set to leave the Conservative party at best unelectable for a generation. The only choice is the path to irrelevance.

    Will give me evens that the Tories are out of power for the next 20 years following a GE!?
    Such long term bets are not attractive, no. But I'm expecting the Conservatives to get hammered at the next election and if any version resurfaces, it will look very different from the current incarnation, just as the Conservative party of 1874 looked very different from the one of 1846.
    The destruction of the current Tory party, which is really the Brexit party in all but name, is to be welcomed.

    Last night Rory gave a very eloquent statement about what he saw Conservatism as being. It was quite appealing - largely because it is so very different from what is currently on offer.

    If I have time later I will post the film of what he said. Of course, by then Rory may be out of this campaign but he seems to me atm the only hope of a saner centre right party.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,573
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Pick your poison.

    One of the few beneficial side effects of Brexit is that it looks set to leave the Conservative party at best unelectable for a generation. The only choice is the path to irrelevance.

    This may be great news for anti Tories but it involves forgetting that the opposition is not being run by Roy Jenkins, Dennis Healey, Yvette Cooper, Alistair Darling, Liam Byrne, Ed Balls or Hilary Benn. It's being controlled and run by fans of the Venezuela regime and Castro. We do need at least one party which is sane and electable. That's a lot of pressure on Jo Swinson and friends.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Pick your poison.

    One of the few beneficial side effects of Brexit is that it looks set to leave the Conservative party at best unelectable for a generation. The only choice is the path to irrelevance.

    If they're out, then some other party on the right will be in.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    FPT
    Charles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Charles said:



    Not quite. I argued:

    (a) if Remainers had swung behind a "damage limitation strategy" for Brexit then we would likely have ended up in a better place - probably EFTA or Norway+ - as they would have been able to team up with the moderate Leavers. Instead they took a firm position, lost the moderate leavers, etc etc

    (b) If they had teamed up and we had ended up in exactly the same place as we have today, they would have a better argument that "we tried really hard and it's awful, do you want to think again?". At the moment all they have is "we dug our heels in and did our best to screw the whole thing up and we've succeeded. Do you want to think again?".

    It's not trying to blame anyone specifically - it was part of a debate as to whether the current situation was inevitable or not.

    The referendum was won by whipping up untrue fears that large numbers of Muslims were poised to descend on Britain. Remainers rightly had no part of any post-referendum settlement that sought to sidestep that.

    The manner of victory was as important as the fact of victory, the point that the self-proclaimed moderate Leavers still have not grasped.
    I refer you to my footnote when I posted this argument originally.
    My point is constructive. You are seeking to betray the electorate by subverting what they voted for into something completely different.

    Your ideal outcome was:

    1) ride on the back of the anti-immigration Leavers to victory.
    2) stab them in the back by making common cause with the defeated Remainers to get what you really want.
    3) let the defeated Remainers get the blame for this betrayal.

    And now you wonder why neither your fellow Leavers nor the defeated Remainers cooperate with this.

    Whatever way forward is best from this mess, that isn't it.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    algarkirk said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Pick your poison.

    One of the few beneficial side effects of Brexit is that it looks set to leave the Conservative party at best unelectable for a generation. The only choice is the path to irrelevance.

    This may be great news for anti Tories but it involves forgetting that the opposition is not being run by Roy Jenkins, Dennis Healey, Yvette Cooper, Alistair Darling, Liam Byrne, Ed Balls or Hilary Benn. It's being controlled and run by fans of the Venezuela regime and Castro. We do need at least one party which is sane and electable. That's a lot of pressure on Jo Swinson and friends.

    Then perhaps professed moderate Conservatives should have a long hard think right now about what they should be doing before the ship sinks with them on board.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rkrkrk said:

    Charles said:


    Not quite. I argued:

    (a) if Remainers had swung behind a "damage limitation strategy" for Brexit then we would likely have ended up in a better place - probably EFTA or Norway+ - as they would have been able to team up with the moderate Leavers. Instead they took a firm position, lost the moderate leavers, etc etc

    (b) If they had teamed up and we had ended up in exactly the same place as we have today, they would have a better argument that "we tried really hard and it's awful, do you want to think again?". At the moment all they have is "we dug our heels in and did our best to screw the whole thing up and we've succeeded. Do you want to think again?".

    It's not trying to blame anyone specifically - it was part of a debate as to whether the current situation was inevitable or not.

    Agree with a) from the Labour/LD/SNP perspective. In addition, Corbyn complicates things. Those who perhaps could have compromised, saw Brexit as an opportunity to attack him.

    But also, May didn't want to compromise either and pursued her strategy of only getting Tory/DUP votes well past the point it was obvious she couldn't succeed.
    Agreed, although IIRC May's Tory-only strategy was later? Either way it was one misjudgement among many.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    DEATH CULT

    https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-conservative-members-break-up-uk-destroy-party-stop-brexit-2019-6?r=US&IR=T
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited June 2019
    AlastairMeeks said:

    FPT

    Charles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Charles said:



    Not quite. I argued:

    (a) if Remainers had swung behind a "damage limitation strategy" for Brexit then we would likely have ended up in a better place - probably EFTA or Norway+ - as they would have been able to team up with the moderate Leavers. Instead they took a firm position, lost the moderate leavers, etc etc

    (b) If they had teamed up and we had ended up in exactly the same place as we have today, they would have a better argument that "we tried really hard and it's awful, do you want to think again?". At the moment all they have is "we dug our heels in and did our best to screw the whole thing up and we've succeeded. Do you want to think again?".

    It's not trying to blame anyone specifically - it was part of a debate as to whether the current situation was inevitable or not.

    The referendum was won by whipping up untrue fears that large numbers of Muslims were poised to descend on Britain. Remainers rightly had no part of any post-referendum settlement that sought to sidestep that.

    The manner of victory was as important as the fact of victory, the point that the self-proclaimed moderate Leavers still have not grasped.
    I refer you to my footnote when I posted this argument originally.
    My point is constructive. You are seeking to betray the electorate by subverting what they voted for into something completely different.

    Your ideal outcome was:

    1) ride on the back of the anti-immigration Leavers to victory.
    2) stab them in the back by making common cause with the defeated Remainers to get what you really want.
    3) let the defeated Remainers get the blame for this betrayal.

    And now you wonder why neither your fellow Leavers nor the defeated Remainers cooperate with this.

    Whatever way forward is best from this mess, that isn't it.
    No, it wasn't. But believe whatever makes you happy.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    edited June 2019
    All you good folk worrying about which arse is going to take the pm-ship/Tory leadership, take a chill pill, they're all great.

    https://twitter.com/AndrewBowieMP/status/1140592334888996865
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    For those in the know: what time is the vote, and what time is the debate?

    The vote is between 3pm and 5pm with a result expected at about 6pm or just afterwards. The debate starts at 8pm.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48673698
    Thanks! @JackW - you are getting slow in your old age :smiley::p
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    AlastairMeeks said:

    rkrkrk said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Pick your poison.

    One of the few beneficial side effects of Brexit is that it looks set to leave the Conservative party at best unelectable for a generation. The only choice is the path to irrelevance.

    Will give me evens that the Tories are out of power for the next 20 years following a GE!?
    Such long term bets are not attractive, no. But I'm expecting the Conservatives to get hammered at the next election and if any version resurfaces, it will look very different from the current incarnation, just as the Conservative party of 1874 looked very different from the one of 1846.
    Yes I didn't think you'd take me up on it.
    You can lay the Tories at 2.12 to get most seats on betfair.
    That will pay out in max 3 years, and probably quite a bit sooner.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Cyclefree said:

    I

    AlastairMeeks said:

    rkrkrk said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Pick your poison.

    One of the few beneficial side effects of Brexit is that it looks set to leave the Conservative party at best unelectable for a generation. The only choice is the path to irrelevance.

    Will give me evens that the Tories are out of power for the next 20 years following a GE!?
    Such long term bets are not attractive, no. But I'm expecting the Conservatives to get hammered at the next election and if any version resurfaces, it will look very different from the current incarnation, just as the Conservative party of 1874 looked very different from the one of 1846.
    The destruction of the current Tory party, which is really the Brexit party in all but name, is to be welcomed.

    Last night Rory gave a very eloquent statement about what he saw Conservatism as being. It was quite appealing - largely because it is so very different from what is currently on offer.

    If I have time later I will post the film of what he said. Of course, by then Rory may be out of this campaign but he seems to me atm the only hope of a saner centre right party.
    He epitomises what the Conservative Party is meant to be about. Sadly it has been taken over by cretins.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Incredible batting from England.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1140968062813970432
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    If Raab is the answer to the nation's problems we as a nation are much more lightweight and stupid than even I thought possible


    Still baffles me why people think he is any good his tenure at DExEU was not exactly a great success.
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608
    AlastairMeeks said:

    algarkirk said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Pick your poison.

    One of the few beneficial side effects of Brexit is that it looks set to leave the Conservative party at best unelectable for a generation. The only choice is the path to irrelevance.

    This may be great news for anti Tories but it involves forgetting that the opposition is not being run by Roy Jenkins, Dennis Healey, Yvette Cooper, Alistair Darling, Liam Byrne, Ed Balls or Hilary Benn. It's being controlled and run by fans of the Venezuela regime and Castro. We do need at least one party which is sane and electable. That's a lot of pressure on Jo Swinson and friends.

    Then perhaps professed moderate Conservatives should have a long hard think right now about what they should be doing before the ship sinks with them on board.
    In your terms, only about (at most) 20% of the Tory party qualify as moderate; out of interest, what would you have them do?
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,529
    Theuniondivvie said:

    All you good folk worrying about which arse is going to take the pm-ship/Tory leadership, take a chill pill, they're all great.

    https://twitter.com/AndrewBowieMP/status/1140592334888996865

    Well compared to Corbyn, he would say that. If Labour was led by a competent ex-minister with a responsible leadership team, Labour would be out of sight ahead in the polls.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Charles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:



    My point is constructive. You are seeking to betray the electorate by subverting what they voted for into something completely different.

    Your ideal outcome was:

    1) ride on the back of the anti-immigration Leavers to victory.
    2) stab them in the back by making common cause with the defeated Remainers to get what you really want.
    3) let the defeated Remainers get the blame for this betrayal.

    And now you wonder why neither your fellow Leavers nor the defeated Remainers cooperate with this.

    Whatever way forward is best from this mess, that isn't it.

    No, it wasn't. But believe whatever makes you happy.
    Until you see the nature of the campaign that you fought for, you will not identify a sensible way forward. The cohort of Leavers who hated the EU viscerally and were prepared to say and do anything to win the referendum have to accept that words and deeds have consequences, and that the next steps of this national disaster have to take those words and deeds into account.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    JackW said:

    Voting 3-5pm Declaration about 6pm . Debate BBC1 8-9pm.

    Some poor sod has wasted the past two days preparing for the debate.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    _Anazina_ said:

    DEATH CULT

    https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-conservative-members-break-up-uk-destroy-party-stop-brexit-2019-6?r=US&IR=T

    Well if anyone wanted evidence of why the Conservative Party is no longer the Conservative Party, this is it. With both Labour and Conservative parties we are now seeing the ultimate result of the idiots that thought giving non elected party members the final say on who their leader in parliament was a good idea.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Animal_pb said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    algarkirk said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Pick your poison.

    One of the few beneficial side effects of Brexit is that it looks set to leave the Conservative party at best unelectable for a generation. The only choice is the path to irrelevance.

    This may be great news for anti Tories but it involves forgetting that the opposition is not being run by Roy Jenkins, Dennis Healey, Yvette Cooper, Alistair Darling, Liam Byrne, Ed Balls or Hilary Benn. It's being controlled and run by fans of the Venezuela regime and Castro. We do need at least one party which is sane and electable. That's a lot of pressure on Jo Swinson and friends.

    Then perhaps professed moderate Conservatives should have a long hard think right now about what they should be doing before the ship sinks with them on board.
    In your terms, only about (at most) 20% of the Tory party qualify as moderate; out of interest, what would you have them do?
    Candidly, my best advice to them is to steel their nerves and man the lifeboats. This is one occasion where women and children first does not apply.

    There is no home in the current Conservative party for anyone who is not prepared to scorch the earth to secure Brexit.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Leading parties in Germany on 25%.

    INSA:

    CDU/CSU 25%
    Greens 25%
    AfD 13.5%
    SPD 13%
    FDP 9%
    Left 9%
    Others 5.5%

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Meeks, the alternative is worse.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    JackW said:

    Voting 3-5pm Declaration about 6pm . Debate BBC1 8-9pm.

    Some poor sod has wasted the past two days preparing for the debate.
    Surely Boris won’t drop out now?? :o
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    JackW said:

    Voting 3-5pm Declaration about 6pm . Debate BBC1 8-9pm.

    Some poor sod has wasted the past two days preparing for the debate.
    3 of them could get knocked out this evening.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    Not a surprise after discussions here yesterday.

    "Tory members happy to trash UK economy and destroy their own party to get Brexit, poll finds"
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-poll-tory-members-uk-economy-scotland-northern-ireland-yougov-a8963391.html?fbclid=IwAR1PT0SxkrUYIt3ylXIdPYGXBljUoseHUcyG1fygN3UFb6cUwoLAVx_O7Jc
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/SpecCoffeeHouse/status/1140969477892378625
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    _Anazina_ said:

    DEATH CULT

    https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-conservative-members-break-up-uk-destroy-party-stop-brexit-2019-6?r=US&IR=T

    Who are the most potty — Tory or Labour members? Difficult to say. Many British people used to laugh at the American primary system but it's looking more sensible by the day.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    AndyJS said:

    Leading parties in Germany on 25%.

    INSA:

    CDU/CSU 25%
    Greens 25%
    AfD 13.5%
    SPD 13%
    FDP 9%
    Left 9%
    Others 5.5%

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    Right and Left are finely balanced on 47/48% each.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Boris is so far ahead it is almost funny, particularly since his various backers include people who diametrically opposed things and so will definitely be angry with him later, but if Raab is the one able to beat him then congratulations to Boris, there is a worse candidate than him in the race.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1140968062813970432

    I have lent them my vote once recently, it is likely to be lent to them again at the next GE. I will never vote Tory with economy wrecking nutters in charge.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    logical_song said:

    Not a surprise after discussions here yesterday.

    "Tory members happy to trash UK economy and destroy their own party to get Brexit, poll finds"
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-poll-tory-members-uk-economy-scotland-northern-ireland-yougov-a8963391.html?fbclid=IwAR1PT0SxkrUYIt3ylXIdPYGXBljUoseHUcyG1fygN3UFb6cUwoLAVx_O7Jc

    It has long been known, what is a surprise is just how much they are willing to do so, and how they are only getting more willing to do so as those things become likely, rather than breezy hypotheticals they could shrug off.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Raab lacks the few advantages that Johnson brings while having all of his downsides. By all accounts an unpleasant individual too.

    Based on the Yougov polling, Javid is the one to go for. He is personable and an orthodox Tory.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1140968062813970432

    Once this vote goes, it goes. You can easily see how voters might move back and forth between the Conservatives and the Brexit party, but it's hard to see how the Conservatives could persuade those who have made the break to the Lib Dems back.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/SpecCoffeeHouse/status/1140969477892378625

    which one is which?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Animal_pb said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    algarkirk said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Pick your poison.

    One of the few beneficial side effects of Brexit is that it looks set to leave the Conservative party at best unelectable for a generation. The only choice is the path to irrelevance.

    This may be great news for anti Tories but it involves forgetting that the opposition is not being run by Roy Jenkins, Dennis Healey, Yvette Cooper, Alistair Darling, Liam Byrne, Ed Balls or Hilary Benn. It's being controlled and run by fans of the Venezuela regime and Castro. We do need at least one party which is sane and electable. That's a lot of pressure on Jo Swinson and friends.

    Then perhaps professed moderate Conservatives should have a long hard think right now about what they should be doing before the ship sinks with them on board.
    In your terms, only about (at most) 20% of the Tory party qualify as moderate; out of interest, what would you have them do?
    Candidly, my best advice to them is to steel their nerves and man the lifeboats. This is one occasion where women and children first does not apply.

    There is no home in the current Conservative party for anyone who is not prepared to scorch the earth to secure Brexit.
    I don’t know how people can even deny that. They literally say they would countenance anything, any price, to get Brexit (except voting for the WA apparently). I even get people willing to pay more of a price than I was willing to pay to get Brexit, but these people would have the country pay anything to do it. It’s so counterproductive too, as it just makes remain stronger.
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Animal_pb said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    algarkirk said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Pick your poison.

    One of the few beneficial side effects of Brexit is that it looks set to leave the Conservative party at best unelectable for a generation. The only choice is the path to irrelevance.

    This may be great news for anti Tories but it involves forgetting that the opposition is not being run by Roy Jenkins, Dennis Healey, Yvette Cooper, Alistair Darling, Liam Byrne, Ed Balls or Hilary Benn. It's being controlled and run by fans of the Venezuela regime and Castro. We do need at least one party which is sane and electable. That's a lot of pressure on Jo Swinson and friends.

    Then perhaps professed moderate Conservatives should have a long hard think right now about what they should be doing before the ship sinks with them on board.
    In your terms, only about (at most) 20% of the Tory party qualify as moderate; out of interest, what would you have them do?
    Candidly, my best advice to them is to steel their nerves and man the lifeboats. This is one occasion where women and children first does not apply.

    There is no home in the current Conservative party for anyone who is not prepared to scorch the earth to secure Brexit.
    Just a thought; you may want to avoid motivational speaking, if you ever tire of the pension law gig.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Cyclefree said:

    I

    AlastairMeeks said:

    rkrkrk said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Pick your poison.

    One of the few beneficial side effects of Brexit is that it looks set to leave the Conservative party at best unelectable for a generation. The only choice is the path to irrelevance.

    Will give me evens that the Tories are out of power for the next 20 years following a GE!?
    Such long term bets are not attractive, no. But I'm expecting the Conservatives to get hammered at the next election and if any version resurfaces, it will look very different from the current incarnation, just as the Conservative party of 1874 looked very different from the one of 1846.
    The destruction of the current Tory party, which is really the Brexit party in all but name, is to be welcomed.

    Last night Rory gave a very eloquent statement about what he saw Conservatism as being. It was quite appealing - largely because it is so very different from what is currently on offer.

    If I have time later I will post the film of what he said. Of course, by then Rory may be out of this campaign but he seems to me atm the only hope of a saner centre right party.
    I wonder what the impact of Rory switching to the LDs would be? It must be a possibility if he realises that he doesn't really belong in the current Tory Party.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Animal_pb said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Animal_pb said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    algarkirk said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Pick your poison.

    One of the few beneficial side effects of Brexit is that it looks set to leave the Conservative party at best unelectable for a generation. The only choice is the path to irrelevance.

    This may be great news for anti Tories but it involves forgetting that the opposition is not being run by Roy Jenkins, Dennis Healey, Yvette Cooper, Alistair Darling, Liam Byrne, Ed Balls or Hilary Benn. It's being controlled and run by fans of the Venezuela regime and Castro. We do need at least one party which is sane and electable. That's a lot of pressure on Jo Swinson and friends.

    Then perhaps professed moderate Conservatives should have a long hard think right now about what they should be doing before the ship sinks with them on board.
    In your terms, only about (at most) 20% of the Tory party qualify as moderate; out of interest, what would you have them do?
    Candidly, my best advice to them is to steel their nerves and man the lifeboats. This is one occasion where women and children first does not apply.

    There is no home in the current Conservative party for anyone who is not prepared to scorch the earth to secure Brexit.
    Just a thought; you may want to avoid motivational speaking, if you ever tire of the pension law gig.
    I'd have thought that's more motivational advice than "stay and take the punishment beatings forever".
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    _Anazina_ said:

    DEATH CULT

    https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-conservative-members-break-up-uk-destroy-party-stop-brexit-2019-6?r=US&IR=T

    Were they asked if they'd rather eat their own feet, too ?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    kle4 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Animal_pb said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    algarkirk said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Pick your poison.

    One of the few beneficial side effects of Brexit is that it looks set to leave the Conservative party at best unelectable for a generation. The only choice is the path to irrelevance.

    This may be great news for anti Tories but it involves forgetting that the opposition is not being run by Roy Jenkins, Dennis Healey, Yvette Cooper, Alistair Darling, Liam Byrne, Ed Balls or Hilary Benn. It's being controlled and run by fans of the Venezuela regime and Castro. We do need at least one party which is sane and electable. That's a lot of pressure on Jo Swinson and friends.

    Then perhaps professed moderate Conservatives should have a long hard think right now about what they should be doing before the ship sinks with them on board.
    In your terms, only about (at most) 20% of the Tory party qualify as moderate; out of interest, what would you have them do?
    Candidly, my best advice to them is to steel their nerves and man the lifeboats. This is one occasion where women and children first does not apply.

    There is no home in the current Conservative party for anyone who is not prepared to scorch the earth to secure Brexit.
    I don’t know how people can even deny that. They literally say they would countenance anything, any price, to get Brexit (except voting for the WA apparently). I even get people willing to pay more of a price than I was willing to pay to get Brexit, but these people would have the country pay anything to do it. It’s so counterproductive too, as it just makes remain stronger.
    I suppose at least they are no longer trying to pretend it won't be damaging. It just shows what a bunch of deranged psychopaths many of them have become. they don't seem to realise that massive job losses and business failures lead to depression and suicide. Maybe they just don't care.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1140968062813970432

    Leaving aside for a moment the interests of the country, the issue is that tacking away from the centre ground and towards extremism to mitigate the threat from the Brexit Party involves wrecking the economy, and therefore trashing the Conservative brand for a generation. That might - just - be in the very short-term interests of the Conservative Party, but it's a surefire route to long-term destruction. And I'm not even sure it's in the short-term interests of the party; Farage is not going to go away, and the nutjobs will ALWAYS shout 'Betrayal!' no matter how far the party moves in their direction.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    AndyJS said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    DEATH CULT

    https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-conservative-members-break-up-uk-destroy-party-stop-brexit-2019-6?r=US&IR=T

    Who are the most potty — Tory or Labour members? Difficult to say. Many British people used to laugh at the American primary system but it's looking more sensible by the day.
    It’s no contest, definitely the Tories. There’s more resistance in Labour ranks to the crazier members, even if they are still outnumbered. Tories, bar a few, are full throated in support of the most extreme, those willing to pay any price, who want to ally with BXP, who care naught for the UK or the economy. Sure, the leadership still makes some sensible noises, but their plans for action reveal the lie there.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    RobD said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    If Raab is the answer to the nation's problems we as a nation are much more lightweight and stupid than even I thought possible


    Still baffles me why people think he is any good his tenure at DExEU was not exactly a great success.
    Dominic Dover.
    That is all.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1140971352339472384
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    @Charles
    - The Remain side, following the referendum, took two lines:

    1 - To remain in the Single Market and have the Withdrawal Agreement reflect that
    2 - To put that Withdrawal Agreement up to referendum for yay/nay

    They've been consistently told to F Off on both counts for three years now. I will admit that the first line has faded away over time as the two camps solidify, but it isn't the case that the Remain side failed to present the EFTA/Single Market side as a compromise option. It was where the Peoples Vote campaign started, and it was what was explicitly in the 2017 Lib Dem manifesto (both of those lines together).
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Charles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:



    My point is constructive. You are seeking to betray the electorate by subverting what they voted for into something completely different.

    Your ideal outcome was:

    1) ride on the back of the anti-immigration Leavers to victory.
    2) stab them in the back by making common cause with the defeated Remainers to get what you really want.
    3) let the defeated Remainers get the blame for this betrayal.

    And now you wonder why neither your fellow Leavers nor the defeated Remainers cooperate with this.

    Whatever way forward is best from this mess, that isn't it.

    No, it wasn't. But believe whatever makes you happy.
    Until you see the nature of the campaign that you fought for, you will not identify a sensible way forward. The cohort of Leavers who hated the EU viscerally and were prepared to say and do anything to win the referendum have to accept that words and deeds have consequences, and that the next steps of this national disaster have to take those words and deeds into account.
    If there were a referendum on whether to put a 100,000 pa ceiling on immigration or not, which side would win?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Animal_pb said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    algarkirk said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Pick your poison.

    One of the few beneficial side effects of Brexit is that it looks set to leave the Conservative party at best unelectable for a generation. The only choice is the path to irrelevance.

    This may be great news for anti Tories but it involves forgetting that the opposition is not being run by Roy Jenkins, Dennis Healey, Yvette Cooper, Alistair Darling, Liam Byrne, Ed Balls or Hilary Benn. It's being controlled and run by fans of the Venezuela regime and Castro. We do need at least one party which is sane and electable. That's a lot of pressure on Jo Swinson and friends.

    Then perhaps professed moderate Conservatives should have a long hard think right now about what they should be doing before the ship sinks with them on board.
    In your terms, only about (at most) 20% of the Tory party qualify as moderate; out of interest, what would you have them do?
    Candidly, my best advice to them is to steel their nerves and man the lifeboats. This is one occasion where women and children first does not apply.

    There is no home in the current Conservative party for anyone who is not prepared to scorch the earth to secure Brexit.
    The current Conservative party is lead by Theresa May (sozza @Pulpstar ) and they are in the midst of deciding upon a new leader. We shall see who that turns out to be before any rash decisions are made.

    Meanwhile, plenty of desperate Labour Party members retain their membership cards presumably hoping for something better to turn up post-Jezza, who as we know wants a scorched earth Brexit policy.

    You frame the debate as though the other party is, as @algakirk noted, run by normal people or is the LibDems.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1140971352339472384

    Stopping Brexit? Isn’t she an MP for a party with “Democrat” in the name?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,900
    Theuniondivvie said:

    All you good folk worrying about which arse is going to take the pm-ship/Tory leadership, take a chill pill, they're all great.

    https://twitter.com/AndrewBowieMP/status/1140592334888996865

    There are plenty of people in other parties and none who could and would say that. The notion the Conservatives have a monopoly on aspiration and are the only Party to champion the cause of families and working people is there to be challenged.

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Pick your poison.

    One of the few beneficial side effects of Brexit is that it looks set to leave the Conservative party at best unelectable for a generation. The only choice is the path to irrelevance.

    Precedents from all around the world suggest parties as irresponsible as the Tories are rarely punished as much as they should be.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Charles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:



    My point is constructive. You are seeking to betray the electorate by subverting what they voted for into something completely different.

    Your ideal outcome was:

    1) ride on the back of the anti-immigration Leavers to victory.
    2) stab them in the back by making common cause with the defeated Remainers to get what you really want.
    3) let the defeated Remainers get the blame for this betrayal.

    And now you wonder why neither your fellow Leavers nor the defeated Remainers cooperate with this.

    Whatever way forward is best from this mess, that isn't it.

    No, it wasn't. But believe whatever makes you happy.
    Until you see the nature of the campaign that you fought for, you will not identify a sensible way forward. The cohort of Leavers who hated the EU viscerally and were prepared to say and do anything to win the referendum have to accept that words and deeds have consequences, and that the next steps of this national disaster have to take those words and deeds into account.
    If there were a referendum on whether to put a 100,000 pa ceiling on immigration or not, which side would win?
    I agree with you about what this referendum was won and lost on. Some of your fellow Leavers, however, delude themselves.
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,529
    _Anazina_ said:

    DEATH CULT

    https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-conservative-members-break-up-uk-destroy-party-stop-brexit-2019-6?r=US&IR=T

    This reflects the re-alignment of UK politics that Lord Ashcroft, John Curtice and others have been pointing out in different ways. Slowly but surely we have moved from a bell curve of political views towards a U-shape: I think it started with UKIP, then Labour's £3 entry fee and Corbyn's election, then accelerated under the Brexit referendum. It's not just a UK change - look at the US, Italy, France...

    What is really driving it is that economies are changing faster now than ever before - only the securely rich are safe and everyone else is looking for a side who will win for them.

    I think we may end up being grateful that we are moving to Labour/Remain + Tories/Leave. If it had been Labour/Leave then there would be no EU state aid rules and supremacy of the EU Courts to stop mass nationalisation without compensation, asset tax/confiscation, etc.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1140968062813970432

    Leaving aside for a moment the interests of the country, the issue is that tacking away from the centre ground and towards extremism to mitigate the threat from the Brexit Party involves wrecking the economy, and therefore trashing the Conservative brand for a generation. That might - just - be in the very short-term interests of the Conservative Party, but it's a surefire route to long-term destruction. And I'm not even sure it's in the short-term interests of the party; Farage is not going to go away, and the nutjobs will ALWAYS shout 'Betrayal!' no matter how far the party moves in their direction.
    You can't out-popular the popularists.

    When they were talking about Farage in this debate, did no one say 'this is a man who has never had to deal with the consquences of his actions. Never had to consider the impact of whatever policy he's put forward'...
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Animal_pb said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Animal_pb said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    algarkirk said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Pick your poison.

    One of the few beneficial side effects of Brexit is that it looks set to leave the Conservative party at best unelectable for a generation. The only choice is the path to irrelevance.

    This may be great news for anti Tories but it involves forgetting that the opposition is not being run by Roy Jenkins, Dennis Healey, Yvette Cooper, Alistair Darling, Liam Byrne, Ed Balls or Hilary Benn. It's being controlled and run by fans of the Venezuela regime and Castro. We do need at least one party which is sane and electable. That's a lot of pressure on Jo Swinson and friends.

    Then perhaps professed moderate Conservatives should have a long hard think right now about what they should be doing before the ship sinks with them on board.
    In your terms, only about (at most) 20% of the Tory party qualify as moderate; out of interest, what would you have them do?
    Candidly, my best advice to them is to steel their nerves and man the lifeboats. This is one occasion where women and children first does not apply.

    There is no home in the current Conservative party for anyone who is not prepared to scorch the earth to secure Brexit.
    Just a thought; you may want to avoid motivational speaking, if you ever tire of the pension law gig.
    I'd have thought that's more motivational advice than "stay and take the punishment beatings forever".
    I'm pretty sure Boris got in trouble for using that line a couple of years ago....
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    edited June 2019
    Charles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    FPT

    Charles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Charles said:



    Not quite. I argued:

    (a) if Remainers had swung behind a "damage limitation strategy" for Brexit then we would likely have ended up in a better place - probably EFTA or Norway+ - as they would have been able to team up with the moderate Leavers. Instead they took a firm position, lost the moderate leavers, etc etc

    (b) If they had teamed up and we had ended up in exactly the same place as we have today, they would have a better argument that "we tried really hard and it's awful, do you want to think again?". At the moment all they have is "we dug our heels in and did our best to screw the whole thing up and we've succeeded. Do you want to think again?".

    It's not trying to blame anyone specifically - it was part of a debate as to whether the current situation was inevitable or not.

    The referendum was won by whipping up untrue fears that large numbers of Muslims were poised to descend on Britain. Remainers rightly had no part of any post-referendum settlement that sought to sidestep that.

    The manner of victory was as important as the fact of victory, the point that the self-proclaimed moderate Leavers still have not grasped.
    I refer you to my footnote when I posted this argument originally.
    My point is constructive. You are seeking to betray the electorate by subverting what they voted for into something completely different.

    Your ideal outcome was:

    1) ride on the back of the anti-immigration Leavers to victory.
    2) stab them in the back by making common cause with the defeated Remainers to get what you really want.
    3) let the defeated Remainers get the blame for this betrayal.

    And now you wonder why neither your fellow Leavers nor the defeated Remainers cooperate with this.

    Whatever way forward is best from this mess, that isn't it.
    No, it wasn't. But believe whatever makes you happy.
    The problem you have is that the bulk of remainers are not going to be reconciled to Brexit because they believe it was narrow victory achieved on the back of a undeliverable promises and outright lies.

    3 years on we now have a majority of leavers now telling us that No Deal is what they really voted for despite the fact that that outcome was ridiculed as Project Fear during the referendum. There is zero chance of unity or the country pulling together in the foreseeable future and electing a snake-oil salesmen like Johnson as PM is not going to improve matters.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Latest betfair

    BJ 1.17
    RS 14
    JH 23
    MG 50
    DR 85
    SJ 200
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1140969191262097408


    Bring on the RoryTrain!! choo choo!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    SNP : "Disgrace that just 150k people choose the PM"

    SNP : " Small sub-Sample of 150k people say they don't care about union with Scotland - INDY NOW !!"



  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Interesting header. I have a long odds bet on Raab to make the final 2 - sounds like that's a certain loser if the Johnson camp agree that he is the one to avoid.

    On Rory Stewart, I noted this comment -

    "... he looks odd (mainly not his fault but…)."

    This is true and, sadly, is not irrelevant. Looks do matter.

    However, the front runner has 'issues' in this regard too. At 55, he has let himself go and has acquired an appearance, facially, bodily, that is decidedly porcine. His gait is porcine too - he lumbers around. And just to complete the package, the peculiar cadence of his speech comes across as a kind of loud, braying "oink oink" type of sound.

    What I'm saying is that Boris Johnson looks and sounds remarkably like a pig. That is not an asset.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Betfair - 2nd Ballot LEAST votes

    DR 3.25
    RS 5.8
    SJ 1.61
    MG 16
    JH 19

  • PhukovPhukov Posts: 132
    I can't work out whether this header is intentionally or unintentionally hilarious.
    As a piece of analysis it's barking mad. As a satire of barking-mad analyses, it's interstellar.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    Montie firefighting the binfire of Tories stopping being the party of the Union.

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1140950501401485312
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    Sorry, if Raab is what it takes to stop Johnson, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, come on down.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Montie firefighting the binfire of Tories stopping being the party of the Union.

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1140950501401485312

    That's quite funny. 'We've made a complete dog's breakfast of Brexit in order to scare the Scots off attempting independence."

    Might work, too.
  • PhukovPhukov Posts: 132
    TGOHF said:

    SNP : "Disgrace that just 150k people choose the PM"

    SNP : " Small sub-Sample of 150k people say they don't care about union with Scotland - INDY NOW !!"

    Of course, the subsample doesn't actually have the power to decide anything. Whereas the Blue Foam do have more power than I would trust them with.

    That said, I wouldn't trust a Tory member with the remote control to my TV, let alone the choice of who the PM should be.
  • oldpoliticsoldpolitics Posts: 455
    kinabalu said:

    .

    What I'm saying is that Boris Johnson looks and sounds remarkably like a pig. That is not an asset.

    Unless you're trying to seduce David Cameron.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    https://twitter.com/jonty/status/1140968881298837504
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    That's quite funny. 'We've made a complete dog's breakfast of Brexit in order to scare the Scots off attempting independence."

    Might work, too.

    Except the only lesson of Brexit is that the bigger the bin fire, the more the faithful cheer.

    The Zoomers will crave their own version even more.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    DavidL said:

    Sorry, if Raab is what it takes to stop Johnson, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, come on down.

    "We had to destroy the village in order to save it..."
  • PhukovPhukov Posts: 132
    edited June 2019
    Theuniondivvie said:

    All you good folk worrying about which arse is going to take the pm-ship/Tory leadership, take a chill pill, they're all great.

    https://twitter.com/AndrewBowieMP/status/1140592334888996865

    Aim for the knees, lads.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    AlastairMeeks said:

    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Charles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:



    My point is constructive. You are seeking to betray the electorate by subverting what they voted for into something completely different.

    Your ideal outcome was:

    1) ride on the back of the anti-immigration Leavers to victory.
    2) stab them in the back by making common cause with the defeated Remainers to get what you really want.
    3) let the defeated Remainers get the blame for this betrayal.

    And now you wonder why neither your fellow Leavers nor the defeated Remainers cooperate with this.

    Whatever way forward is best from this mess, that isn't it.

    No, it wasn't. But believe whatever makes you happy.
    Until you see the nature of the campaign that you fought for, you will not identify a sensible way forward. The cohort of Leavers who hated the EU viscerally and were prepared to say and do anything to win the referendum have to accept that words and deeds have consequences, and that the next steps of this national disaster have to take those words and deeds into account.
    If there were a referendum on whether to put a 100,000 pa ceiling on immigration or not, which side would win?
    I agree with you about what this referendum was won and lost on. Some of your fellow Leavers, however, delude themselves.
    The referendum was called, and Leave won, because Blair, Brown, Cameron and Clegg refused to listen to the public on immigration. All they had to do was try to keep the numbers down. Cameron pledged to, and they hit record levels. The blame for this mess lies with those four men
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    ExiledInScotland said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    DEATH CULT

    https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-conservative-members-break-up-uk-destroy-party-stop-brexit-2019-6?r=US&IR=T

    This reflects the re-alignment of UK politics that Lord Ashcroft, John Curtice and others have been pointing out in different ways. Slowly but surely we have moved from a bell curve of political views towards a U-shape: I think it started with UKIP, then Labour's £3 entry fee and Corbyn's election, then accelerated under the Brexit referendum. It's not just a UK change - look at the US, Italy, France...

    What is really driving it is that economies are changing faster now than ever before - only the securely rich are safe and everyone else is looking for a side who will win for them.

    I think we may end up being grateful that we are moving to Labour/Remain + Tories/Leave. If it had been Labour/Leave then there would be no EU state aid rules and supremacy of the EU Courts to stop mass nationalisation without compensation, asset tax/confiscation, etc.
    The last thing we needed in the UK was American-style polarisation but it looks like it's happening anyway.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Charles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:



    My point is constructive. You are seeking to betray the electorate by subverting what they voted for into something completely different.

    Your ideal outcome was:

    1) ride on the back of the anti-immigration Leavers to victory.
    2) stab them in the back by making common cause with the defeated Remainers to get what you really want.
    3) let the defeated Remainers get the blame for this betrayal.

    And now you wonder why neither your fellow Leavers nor the defeated Remainers cooperate with this.

    Whatever way forward is best from this mess, that isn't it.

    No, it wasn't. But believe whatever makes you happy.
    Until you see the nature of the campaign that you fought for, you will not identify a sensible way forward. The cohort of Leavers who hated the EU viscerally and were prepared to say and do anything to win the referendum have to accept that words and deeds have consequences, and that the next steps of this national disaster have to take those words and deeds into account.
    I voted Leave, and I hosted a party for Business For Britain because Matt Elliott and Dan Hannan asked me to.

    I'm not sure that counts as fighting for a campaign!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    TGOHF said:

    SNP : "Disgrace that just 150k people choose the PM"

    SNP : " Small sub-Sample of 150k people say they don't care about union with Scotland - INDY NOW !!"



    It's a poll, not a sub sample. I'd have thought as a long term PB habituee you'd know the difference.

    Do you think it's a radical misreading of the Tory membership?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Scott_P said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    That's quite funny. 'We've made a complete dog's breakfast of Brexit in order to scare the Scots off attempting independence."

    Might work, too.

    Except the only lesson of Brexit is that the bigger the bin fire, the more the faithful cheer.

    The Zoomers will crave their own version even more.
    The problem is you can easily imagine the majority of the tory membership activtely wanting to ditch both scotland and NI.

    It is English Nationalism which seems to have taken over the party.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Montie firefighting the binfire of Tories stopping being the party of the Union.

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1140950501401485312

    It may well be that it is so much more difficult to entangle the much older union. But it is hardly a receipt for longer term strength and harmony if ‘it’s too bloody difficult to get out, however bad we want it’ is the defining reason for the UK union remaining. As a supporter of it, that’s just plain sad.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,624
    On a different note this weeks economic stats from North American manufacturing to Australian house prices to German economic sentiment to UK bond auctions ** are suggesting imminent recession:

    https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php#closed

    Now things might change for the better but perhaps the candidates might be asked what they would do when the next recession occurs instead of their fantasy tax cuts posturing.

    ** Looks like the government is flogging 10 year bonds at an average yield of 0.89%.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Andy_Cooke said:

    @Charles
    - The Remain side, following the referendum, took two lines:

    1 - To remain in the Single Market and have the Withdrawal Agreement reflect that
    2 - To put that Withdrawal Agreement up to referendum for yay/nay

    They've been consistently told to F Off on both counts for three years now. I will admit that the first line has faded away over time as the two camps solidify, but it isn't the case that the Remain side failed to present the EFTA/Single Market side as a compromise option. It was where the Peoples Vote campaign started, and it was what was explicitly in the 2017 Lib Dem manifesto (both of those lines together).

    That's not come across in the public arena.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    oldpolitics said:

    kinabalu said:

    .

    What I'm saying is that Boris Johnson looks and sounds remarkably like a pig. That is not an asset.

    Unless you're trying to seduce David Cameron.

    Point of order - it was never alleged the supposed incident was amorous in nature, or that tumescence was involved.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,900
    RobD said:

    Stopping Brexit? Isn’t she an MP for a party with “Democrat” in the name?

    Just so I'm clear - the result of the 2016 Referendum has to be honoured irrespective of the consequences? I voted leave but I didn't vote to break up the UK, wreck the economy or destroy the Conservative Party welcome though the last of those would be.

    I'm also capable of changing my mind and admitting I made a mistake.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    TOPPING said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Animal_pb said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    algarkirk said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Pick your poison.

    One of the few beneficial side effects of Brexit is that it looks set to leave the Conservative party at best unelectable for a generation. The only choice is the path to irrelevance.

    This may be great news for anti Tories but it involves forgetting that the opposition is not being run by Roy Jenkins, Dennis Healey, Yvette Cooper, Alistair Darling, Liam Byrne, Ed Balls or Hilary Benn. It's being controlled and run by fans of the Venezuela regime and Castro. We do need at least one party which is sane and electable. That's a lot of pressure on Jo Swinson and friends.

    Then perhaps professed moderate Conservatives should have a long hard think right now about what they should be doing before the ship sinks with them on board.
    In your terms, only about (at most) 20% of the Tory party qualify as moderate; out of interest, what would you have them do?
    Candidly, my best advice to them is to steel their nerves and man the lifeboats. This is one occasion where women and children first does not apply.

    There is no home in the current Conservative party for anyone who is not prepared to scorch the earth to secure Brexit.
    The current Conservative party is lead by Theresa May (sozza @Pulpstar ) and they are in the midst of deciding upon a new leader. We shall see who that turns out to be before any rash decisions are made...
    I wouldn't bank on it.
    The chances are the choice of the new leader will be the first of those rash decisions.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    stodge said:

    RobD said:

    Stopping Brexit? Isn’t she an MP for a party with “Democrat” in the name?

    Just so I'm clear - the result of the 2016 Referendum has to be honoured irrespective of the consequences? I voted leave but I didn't vote to break up the UK, wreck the economy or destroy the Conservative Party welcome though the last of those would be.

    I'm also capable of changing my mind and admitting I made a mistake.
    You clearly hate democracy. :smile:
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