Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » To show they’re back in the game the LDs need the Brecon & Rad

1235

Comments

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,027
    edited June 2019
    crandles said:

    The last thing the HofC wants is no deal Brexit with inadequate preparation.

    Rather a slim chance, but suppose new tory leader was unable to command confidence of the house and neither could Corbyn leading to new general election. If there was no majority or coalition that could be formed, do we crash out with inadequate preparation and no-one has authority to send A50 revocation letter to prevent this?

    Should T May send in or seek HofC approval for sending a conditional A50 revocation letter if and only if these circumstances happen?

    I have a little money on Mrs May still being PM in the fourth quarter at 170/1. Given her track record and the major constitutional uncertainties I think it is value. I haven't bet the house on it!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,124

    Not even a Bannock-byrne?
    No, although you're doing Stirling work at trying.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,009
    Charles said:

    They are not racist... but they prefer someone of their own race?

    Umm...
    LOL, whereas the toffs prefer their own inbreds
  • isam said:

    Did Farage soft pedal? I have a notion he wouldn’t mind a Remainer as Tory leader
    Seemed pretty soft. Lots of the listeners ringing in seemed to have a lot of time for Stewart. They pressed him on Brexit pretty hard, but it was all respectful.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,009
    edited June 2019

    Boris remains the candidate most likely to spectacularly implode, especially if it looks like he's losing the momentum. He has little to no self-control.

    Rory Stewart was very self composed when talking to Farage there, he's interesting. Would like to see him make it through the next ballot and go into the Tuesday debate.
    He was kissing Fargage's butt big style. Came across as your usual vacant thick toff, mouthed lots of soundbites but said nothing. Back to being a nonentity soon.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,124
    I think it is fair to say Pakistan are getting their arses handed to them.

    Their Prime Minister will be displeased.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited June 2019
    Barnesian said:

    I have a little money on Mrs May still being PM in the fourth quarter at 170/1. Given her track record and the major constitutional uncertainties I think it is value. I haven't bet the house on it!
    That’s definitely worth a beer, the scenario where the new Con leader doesn’t command a majority in the Commons - but neither does anyone else - makes a late-September election probable with Mrs May staying on as a caretaker PM until after the election.

    If, as discussed upthread, the Brecon seat is vacated by recall, we only need to lose two more Tory MPs (or the DUP) to force through a vote of no confidence in the government.
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 574

    It is called Montgomeryshire.

    Jane Dodds does not live in the Brecon & Radnor constituency.

    She lives in Welshpool. I have never heard her speak Welsh.
    I have heard her speak Welsh a number of times. See this for an example https://www.libdemvoice.org/in-full-jane-dodds-speech-to-welsh-lib-dem-conference-60469.html
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Barnesian said:

    I have a little money on Mrs May still being PM in the fourth quarter at 170/1. Given her track record and the major constitutional uncertainties I think it is value. I haven't bet the house on it!
    I think that may prove a smart bet.
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    MaxPB said:

    Trump skewering Khan on violence again and Khan still has no fucking clue. Honestly if the lib Dems put up a candidate that isn't Chuka I'll vote for them. I'll never vote for the racist, Bailey.

    If you are talking about London Mayor, here's the Lib Dem candidate. Not Chuka. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-46302175

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,141
    Jeremy Hunt also wants to negotiate a new deal with changes to the backstop. He says he would accept a no-deal Brexit if "there is no prospect of a deal by 31 October"

    His position seems to change daily.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    isam said:

    The people wondering whether the Peterborough by election was crooked, ‘Democracy Volunteers’

    https://democracyvolunteers.org/

    Are they an impartial group?

    They don't say that it was crooked, or that it was stolen by one side or the other, but they do have some concerns that should be acted on.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    ydoethur said:

    Whether Labour's people like it or not, the fact remains that we were left uniquely and grossly exposed to worldwide recession due to the laziness and complacency of government and regulators coupled with an unfunded spending spree immediately beforehand.

    Admitting that isn't going to change the narrative. Refusing to admit it does however make them look like fools.

    Nonsense on stilts. Britain's pre-crisis spending was not high by historical or international standards (and the word unfunded is meaningless in this context). The global financial crisis started in America where, you may be surprised to learn, our regulators have very little clout: none, in fact. Britain did, however, lead the international response to the crisis.

    Gordon Brown saved the world :wink:
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    They appear genuine but not official, funding coming from respectable institutions and donations
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,071

    Osborne wasn't chancellor in 2008!
    But he was Shadow Chancellor from 2005, so his fiscal opinions in 2008 are relevant.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,504
    ydoethur said:

    I think it is fair to say Pakistan are getting their arses handed to them.

    Their Prime Minister will be displeased.

    Not if the PM has put their country's currency reserves on India.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,124

    Nonsense on stilts. Britain's pre-crisis spending was not high by historical or international standards (and the word unfunded is meaningless in this context). The global financial crisis started in America where, you may be surprised to learn, our regulators have very little clout: none, in fact. Britain did, however, lead the international response to the crisis.

    Gordon Brown saved the world :wink:
    Says a man who also continues to insist Labour's last manifesto was fully costed.

    Honestly, sometimes you come across as a more articulate version of Hyufd.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,016
    ydoethur said:

    I think it is fair to say Pakistan are getting their arses handed to them.

    Their Prime Minister will be displeased.

    He did advise them to bat first.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,124
    tlg86 said:

    Not if the PM has put their country's currency reserves on India.
    I Khant believe that, Butt you may be right.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    A reminder that Boris Johnson has other things to think about than Brexit:

    https://twitter.com/matthewdancona/status/1139854904313438208?s=21
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,877

    Jeremy Hunt also wants to negotiate a new deal with changes to the backstop.

    I looked up Jeremy Hunt on Wikipedia, and it says he has been Foreign Secretary for nearly a year.

    Did anyone else here realise that?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,124
    Chris said:

    I looked up Jeremy Hunt on Wikipedia, and it says he has been Foreign Secretary for nearly a year.

    Did anyone else here realise that?
    I thought it was more.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,016
    IanB2 said:

    Bottom line is that Boris will get a honeymoon, as would anyone ...
    Hasn’t he already had more than his fair share ?
    There’s the whole law of diminishing returns thing...

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,877
    ydoethur said:

    I thought it was more.
    No - before last July it was Boris Johnson, who is another candidate in the leadership election.

    Wikipedia also tells me that another of the candidates was actually Brexit Secretary until he resigned in protest against the Withdrawal Agreement he had negotiated.

    Didn't a famous politician once say "It's a funny old world"?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,124
    Not sure whether that wicket was good news or bad news for Pakistan.

    OK, so Nohit has hit and is out.

    But now Hardik Pandya is in...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,016
    edited June 2019
    ydoethur said:

    Not sure whether that wicket was good news or bad news for Pakistan.

    OK, so Nohit has hit and is out.

    But now Hardik Pandya is in...

    It is at least one ball India didn’t score off.

    And Amir has four overs remaining.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,124
    Chris said:

    No - before last July it was Boris Johnson, who is another candidate in the leadership election.

    Wikipedia also tells me that another of the candidates was actually Brexit Secretary until he resigned in protest against the Withdrawal Agreement he had negotiated.

    Didn't a famous politician once say "It's a funny old world"?
    It probably just feels like more given how fast events have moved.

    May probably feels she's had 7 years in office rather than 3.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    The whole of Argentina and Uruguay without power. Can you imagine? What a shambles. Just those two countries thankfully. Venezuela is fine.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,137
    edited June 2019

    I think that may prove a smart bet.
    October Exit for TM is worth 13k to me, I could do with that!

    Nov or Dec 3k
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,141
    kinabalu said:

    The whole of Argentina and Uruguay without power. Can you imagine? What a shambles. Just those two countries thankfully. Venezuela is fine.

    Would they notice in Venezuela?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,137

    A reminder that Boris Johnson has other things to think about than Brexit:

    https://twitter.com/matthewdancona/status/1139854904313438208?s=21

    I think you & I agree that he should pledge £350m a week extra than 2016 level to the NHS? Let the over 75s off their tv licence and Con Maj nailed on!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,016
    Can’t help feel that India could have accelerated earlier.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,137

    They don't say that it was crooked, or that it was stolen by one side or the other, but they do have some concerns that should be acted on.
    "wondering" seems to cover that
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,124
    kinabalu said:

    The whole of Argentina and Uruguay without power. Can you imagine? What a shambles. Just those two countries thankfully. Venezuela is fine.

    I think you mean, 'Venezuela is unaffected by this particular power outage.'

    I would not say a country in the grip of civil unrest, famine, power outages, rampant corruption and run by a violent thug who would be out of his intellectual and moral depth as clerk to Penkridge Parish Council is 'fine.'
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,124
    Nigelb said:

    Can’t help feel that India could have accelerated earlier.

    Pandya's dismissal suggests you feel rightly. They should have been looking at 400, they'll be lucky to get 340 here.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,954
    isam said:

    "wondering" seems to cover that
    Bit boring. Their only concern seems to be about people's taking photos of their completed ballot paper. I thought it would be a bit more Nigel Woz Robbed.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,124
    edited June 2019
    It is extraordinary that MS Dhoni, a truly great one day batsman with an average of 50, has played 50% more innings than Kohli and yet scored 500 fewer runs.

    If Viv Richards was for many years the greatest ODI batsman of all time, Kohli has surely usurped him now.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    ydoethur said:

    I think you mean, 'Venezuela is unaffected by this particular power outage.'

    I would not say a country in the grip of civil unrest, famine, power outages, rampant corruption and run by a violent thug who would be out of his intellectual and moral depth as clerk to Penkridge Parish Council is 'fine.'
    Venezuela has more than its fair share of power outages
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,124
    ydoethur said:

    It is extraordinary that MS Dhoni, a truly great one day batsman with an average of 50, has played 50% more innings than Kohli and yet scored 500 fewer runs.

    If Viv Richards was for many years the greatest ODI batsman of all time, Kohli has surely usurped him now.

    It was silly of me to call Mahendra Singh Dhoni a truly great one day batsman, wasn't it?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    ydoethur said:

    I would not say a country in the grip of civil unrest, famine, power outages, rampant corruption and run by a violent thug who would be out of his intellectual and moral depth as clerk to Penkridge Parish Council is 'fine.'

    That remains the case, yes, but I was specifically commenting on the breaking news that Venezuela has not, unlike Argentina and Uruguay, lost its entire power supply today.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,124
    kinabalu said:

    That remains the case, yes, but I was specifically commenting on the breaking news that Venezuela has not, unlike Argentina and Uruguay, lost its entire power supply today.
    Well, yes, I got that far, but I think your language was perhaps a little thoughtless.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,124
    Rain stopped play.

    Pakistan have done very well the last 5-10 overs to keep them this quiet. The target still looks very gettable, although OT is of course one of the largest grounds out there.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,150
    IanB2 said:

    Neither have I. Wikipedia says she can, FWIW
    Whenever she speaks in public she normally starts off in Welsh.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,124
    slade said:

    Whenever she speaks in public she normally starts off in Welsh.
    Does she continue in it? Or answer spontaneous questions in it?

    I can start off easily enough in Welsh, and I understand it reasonably well. But it would be going a bit far to say I can speak it.

    That said, I don't know her, and I may be being unfair.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550

    Would they notice in Venezuela?

    Perhaps not. Still, Brazil and Paraguay too now. Looks like Venezuela is a Latin American beacon in this respect. Not what one would have expected.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    ydoethur said:

    Rain stopped play.

    Pakistan have done very well the last 5-10 overs to keep them this quiet. The target still looks very gettable, although OT is of course one of the largest grounds out there.

    Yep, India could (and should) have pushed for close to 400 given the number of wickets in hand only half an hour ago.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,124
    I think India need the rain to last for 75+ minutes. 327 in 46 overs would be a much steeper chase for Pakistan than anything they're likely to set off the full 50.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    David Gauke indicating "a lot of" Hancock supporters are moving over to Rory Stewart :

    https://twitter.com/DavidGauke?lang=en
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,507
    Charles said:

    What I don’t understand is why he didn’t duplicate the invoice and do a partial claim to both accounts?
    Do MPs use Concur? I can't see that working.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    ydoethur said:

    I think India need the rain to last for 75+ minutes. 327 in 46 overs would be a much steeper chase for Pakistan than anything they're likely to set off the full 50.

    I believe Pak would need to chase 186 off 20 overs if it came to that.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited June 2019
    kinabalu said:

    Perhaps not. Still, Brazil and Paraguay too now. Looks like Venezuela is a Latin American beacon in this respect. Not what one would have expected.
    Seems power is being restored slowly and thankfully at least the problem occurred on a Sunday morning in daylight hours.

    Still just looked at the BBC homepage - and its ranked lower as a headline story than 'Mum finds a hidden camera in the toilets at Costa Coffee in Chelmsford!' The Essex police have launched an investigation so we should by thankful and the mother has got free publicity for her campaign for improved cleanliness in public toilets. She apparently regularly reports videos and pictures of facilities that don't meet standards.

    Bizarre!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,507

    Rory will not serve under Boris he says on Marr.

    Quite a pathetic stance for the so-called unity candidate.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,970
    ydoethur said:

    Does she continue in it? Or answer spontaneous questions in it?

    I can start off easily enough in Welsh, and I understand it reasonably well. But it would be going a bit far to say I can speak it.

    That said, I don't know her, and I may be being unfair.
    A classic PB discussion that takes a factoid from the original post and spins off into a pained examination of essentially peripheral minutiae! (or in this case a minutia)

    The original point was that there would be an advantage for a party with a strong local candidate in play. The LibDems selected way back and are already campaigning on the ground. The Tories can’t make a move while they stand by their existing MP. The Brexit Party, god knows what they actually have on the ground?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Maybe a statement of the obvious but it won't be as easy for the LDs to win a by-election in a large rural seat like Brecon & Radnorshire as it would be in an urban seat like Richmond Park or Cheadle.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,507
    nico67 said:

    What’s poor about it, he fundamentally disagrees with his stance . And doesn’t want any future leadership challenge being tainted by the stench of being part of the likely lunatic cabinet Bozo will put together .

    That is what's poor about it. If he thinks it will be such a disaster, and the cabinet will be so full of right wing nut jobs, best to take the most responsible position that is offered, to alleviate the damage to country and party. To 'build bridges' that he professes to be so in favour of. It's called public service.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,124

    I believe Pak would need to chase 186 off 20 overs if it came to that.
    With their firepower I think they could do that. Paradoxically, a chase at a slower run rate over more overs which would give India's attack and Kohli's skill in setting fields more time to work would I think be more difficult for them.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    IanB2 said:

    A classic PB discussion that takes a factoid from the original post and spins off into a pained examination of essentially peripheral minutiae! (or in this case a minutia)

    The original point was that there would be an advantage for a party with a strong local candidate in play. The LibDems selected way back and are already campaigning on the ground. The Tories can’t make a move while they stand by their existing MP. The Brexit Party, god knows what they actually have on the ground?
    This is nonsense.

    Jane Dodds is not local, she does not live in the constituency, and she has little in common with the majority of the constituents.

    She would be the ideal LibDem candidate for the constituency of pb.com Central or Smithson North. She loves wind farms, she works for a charity, she is strong on identity politics.

    She is a poor candidate for Brecon and Radnor.

    The previous two LibDem MPs were LOCAL (i.e. live in Brecon & Radnor and had roots there) FARMERS.

    Richard Livsey was a farmer, (and lecturer in agricultural science at Aberystwyth University). Roger Williams was a farmer and chair of Brecon and Radnor Farmers Union.

    If the Tories choose a local who can speak to the farming vote, they will win.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,935
    edited June 2019
    He's also quite cleverly creating a face-off and sense of a final round between him and Johnson by doing that. The subtext is - "I can afford to make a gesture like this, as I represent the alternative."
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347
    edited June 2019

    That is what's poor about it. If he thinks it will be such a disaster, and the cabinet will be so full of right wing nut jobs, best to take the most responsible position that is offered, to alleviate the damage to country and party. To 'build bridges' that he professes to be so in favour of. It's called public service.
    Fake unity is more destructive than disunity, and there's no point building bridges to a place you think is terrible. The 'I'll stay on and try to limit the damage' mindset is the same reason people who claim May got things so wrong stuck with her as long as they did, and they are pilloried for that now. Quelle surprise, when someone does not want to do that with Boris, it's a bad thing.

    How is not serving to alleviate damage in a May Cabinet ok for Boris, but it is not ok for others to not want to serve in a Boris Cabinet? Boris even initially agreed at Chequers then changed his mind a few days later, rather than simply say he could not accept the path they were on. He even voted for the WA in the end, so it was in fact an acceptable if not ideal option for him, and he could have sought not to split the party for a year beforehand.

    In short, the argument is a nonsense. Rory is certainly peddling some unreasiltic scenarios himself, and I don't agree with some of his solutions either, but the idea refusing to serve under someone whose policies he thinks would not be any good is poor form is laughable, particularly when people are criticised for doing so under May, and when the person he does not want to serve under quit the Cabinet rather than take 'the most responsibe position that is offered, to alleviate the damage to country and party'.

    One rule for Boris, one rule for others.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    That is what's poor about it. If he thinks it will be such a disaster, and the cabinet will be so full of right wing nut jobs, best to take the most responsible position that is offered, to alleviate the damage to country and party. To 'build bridges' that he professes to be so in favour of. It's called public service.
    Is it not possible to offer "public service" from the backbenches? The easy option would give the usual trite response and get a promotion within the cabinet.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    I'm not sure Rory Stewart's supporters are going to be pleased with this:


    "'We need to reach out to you': Rory Stewart personally asks Nigel Farage for a deal with the Brexit Party"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/16/need-reach-rory-stewart-personally-asks-nigel-farage-deal-brexit/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,016
    kle4 said:

    Fake unity is more destructive than disunity, and there's no point building bridges to a place you think is terrible. The 'I'll stay on and try to limit the damage' mindset is the same reason people who claim May got things so wrong stuck with her as long as they did, and they are pilloried for that now. Quelle surprise, when someone does not want to do that with Boris, it's a bad thing.

    How is not serving to alleviate damage in a May Cabinet ok for Boris, but it is not ok for others to not want to serve in a Boris Cabinet? Boris even initially agreed at Chequers then changed his mind a few days later, rather than simply say he could not accept the path they were on. He even voted for the WA in the end, so it was in fact an acceptable if not ideal option for him, and he could have sought not to split the party for a year beforehand.

    In short, the argument is a nonsense. Rory is certainly peddling some unreasiltic scenarios himself, and I don't agree with some of his solutions either, but the idea refusing to serve under someone whose policies he thinks would not be any good is poor form is laughable, particularly when people are criticised for doing so under May, and when the person he does not want to serve under quit the Cabinet rather than take 'the most responsibe position that is offered, to alleviate the damage to country and party'.

    One rule for Boris, one rule for others.
    The cake and eat it tendency.

  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited June 2019

    He's also quite cleverly creating a face-off and sense of a final round between him and Johnson by doing that. The subtext is - "I can afford to make a gesture like this, as I represent the alternative."

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    This is nonsense.

    Jane Dodds is not local, she does not live in the constituency, and she has little in common with the majority of the constituents.

    She would be the ideal LibDem candidate for the constituency of pb.com Central or Smithson North. She loves wind farms, she works for a charity, she is strong on identity politics.

    She is a poor candidate for Brecon and Radnor.

    The previous two LibDem MPs were LOCAL (i.e. live in Brecon & Radnor and had roots there) FARMERS.

    Richard Livsey was a farmer, (and lecturer in agricultural science at Aberystwyth University). Roger Williams was a farmer and chair of Brecon and Radnor Farmers Union.

    If the Tories choose a local who can speak to the farming vote, they will win.

    Is the farming vote keen on a WTO BREXIT that would see vast imports of cheap tariff free agricultural products ?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    This is nonsense.

    Jane Dodds is not local, she does not live in the constituency, and she has little in common with the majority of the constituents.

    She would be the ideal LibDem candidate for the constituency of pb.com Central or Smithson North. She loves wind farms, she works for a charity, she is strong on identity politics.

    She is a poor candidate for Brecon and Radnor.

    The previous two LibDem MPs were LOCAL (i.e. live in Brecon & Radnor and had roots there) FARMERS.

    Richard Livsey was a farmer, (and lecturer in agricultural science at Aberystwyth University). Roger Williams was a farmer and chair of Brecon and Radnor Farmers Union.

    If the Tories choose a local who can speak to the farming vote, they will win.
    Be interesting to see that candidate answer the Gauke question on tariffs.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,016
    ydoethur said:

    Pandya's dismissal suggests you feel rightly. They should have been looking at 400, they'll be lucky to get 340 here.
    That is one of the reasons why England are perhaps the stronger batting side. India have equal talents, but don’t have the same won’t die wondering attitude.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited June 2019

    <
    This is nonsense.

    Jane Dodds is not local, she does not live in the constituency, and she has little in common with the majority of the constituents.

    She would be the ideal LibDem candidate for the constituency of pb.com Central or Smithson North. She loves wind farms, she works for a charity, she is strong on identity politics.

    She is a poor candidate for Brecon and Radnor.

    The previous two LibDem MPs were LOCAL (i.e. live in Brecon & Radnor and had roots there) FARMERS.

    Richard Livsey was a farmer, (and lecturer in agricultural science at Aberystwyth University). Roger Williams was a farmer and chair of Brecon and Radnor Farmers Union.

    If the Tories choose a local who can speak to the farming vote, they will win.

    I notice that Jane Dodd's first entry into local politics was as a councillor in Richmond upon Thames - pb.com central you might say! Had things not gone pearshaped for the LDs locally post 2010 she might well have stayed there.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    I'm probably not the only person whose read tweets from Lib Dems today hinting that there's a new financial scandal to come out shortly about Farage. No way of telling if they are true of course. But it is odd that the Brexit Party hasn't signed up to any groupings in the EU parliament yet. You'd have thought they'd be only too happy to get the extra funding.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    JackW said:

    Is the farming vote keen on a WTO BREXIT that would see vast imports of cheap tariff free agricultural products ?
    Beat me to it!
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    JackW said:

    Is the farming vote keen on a WTO BREXIT that would see vast imports of cheap tariff free agricultural products ?
    I have no idea.

    Is the (yet to be selected) Tory candidate for Brecon and Radnor actually arguing for a WTO BREXIT ?

    I think a Welsh farming seat should be represented by a Welsh farmer.

    Incidentally, I made the same point some time ago about the neighbouring constituency of Montgomeryshire.

    I said if the LibDems continue to choose London metropolitans with no connection to the seat (Carlisle, Opik), they would end up losing it.

    The Tories finally wised up and choose a Welsh-speaking farmer, and hey presto, the Montgomeryshire seat is now very safe for the Tories.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited June 2019

    That is what's poor about it. If he thinks it will be such a disaster, and the cabinet will be so full of right wing nut jobs, best to take the most responsible position that is offered, to alleviate the damage to country and party. To 'build bridges' that he professes to be so in favour of. It's called public service.
    Boris on day one of his pmship is going to commit to things which Rory is unable to support. So either he resigns on day one, or you are proposing abolishing the doctrine of collective cabinet responsibility. Which?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,877

    That is what's poor about it. If he thinks it will be such a disaster, and the cabinet will be so full of right wing nut jobs, best to take the most responsible position that is offered, to alleviate the damage to country and party. To 'build bridges' that he professes to be so in favour of. It's called public service.
    Like Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab did, you mean?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,970

    This is nonsense.

    Jane Dodds is not local, she does not live in the constituency, and she has little in common with the majority of the constituents.

    She would be the ideal LibDem candidate for the constituency of pb.com Central or Smithson North. She loves wind farms, she works for a charity, she is strong on identity politics.

    She is a poor candidate for Brecon and Radnor.

    The previous two LibDem MPs were LOCAL (i.e. live in Brecon & Radnor and had roots there) FARMERS.

    Richard Livsey was a farmer, (and lecturer in agricultural science at Aberystwyth University). Roger Williams was a farmer and chair of Brecon and Radnor Farmers Union.

    If the Tories choose a local who can speak to the farming vote, they will win.
    Having a local candidate certainly helps, but let's not get carried away by farming, which employs a small minority even of a rural area like Brecon.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,166

    I have no idea.

    Is the (yet to be selected) Tory candidate for Brecon and Radnor actually arguing for a WTO BREXIT ?

    I think a Welsh farming seat should be represented by a Welsh farmer.

    Incidentally, I made the same point some time ago about the neighbouring constituency of Montgomeryshire.

    I said if the LibDems continue to choose London metropolitans with no connection to the seat (Carlisle, Opik), they would end up losing it.

    The Tories finally wised up and choose a Welsh-speaking farmer, and hey presto, the Montgomeryshire seat is now very safe for the Tories.
    The farming vote in NI is certainly against WTO, at least the ones Rory met. They are terrified of the tariffs on meat.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,027
    edited June 2019
    ydoethur said:

    Does she continue in it? Or answer spontaneous questions in it?

    I can start off easily enough in Welsh, and I understand it reasonably well. But it would be going a bit far to say I can speak it.

    That said, I don't know her, and I may be being unfair.
    Not quite sure what the issue is, 80% of Welsh people don't speak Welsh and fear of being ruled by the Welsh-speaking mafia is, in my opinion, what has prevented Plaid Cymru emulating the SNP. I say that as a Welshman by the way.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    I have no idea.

    Is the (yet to be selected) Tory candidate for Brecon and Radnor actually arguing for a WTO BREXIT ?

    I think a Welsh farming seat should be represented by a Welsh farmer.

    Incidentally, I made the same point some time ago about the neighbouring constituency of Montgomeryshire.

    I said if the LibDems continue to choose London metropolitans with no connection to the seat (Carlisle, Opik), they would end up losing it.

    The Tories finally wised up and choose a Welsh-speaking farmer, and hey presto, the Montgomeryshire seat is now very safe for the Tories.
    Well if they stick with Davies he is an ERG member so may have to answer the question
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,507
    kle4 said:



    Fake unity is more destructive than disunity, and there's no point building bridges to a place you think is terrible. The 'I'll stay on and try to limit the damage' mindset is the same reason people who claim May got things so wrong stuck with her as long as they did, and they are pilloried for that now. Quelle surprise, when someone does not want to do that with Boris, it's a bad thing.

    How is not serving to alleviate damage in a May Cabinet ok for Boris, but it is not ok for others to not want to serve in a Boris Cabinet? Boris even initially agreed at Chequers then changed his mind a few days later, rather than simply say he could not accept the path they were on. He even voted for the WA in the end, so it was in fact an acceptable if not ideal option for him, and he could have sought not to split the party for a year beforehand.

    In short, the argument is a nonsense. Rory is certainly peddling some unreasiltic scenarios himself, and I don't agree with some of his solutions either, but the idea refusing to serve under someone whose policies he thinks would not be any good is poor form is laughable, particularly when people are criticised for doing so under May, and when the person he does not want to serve under quit the Cabinet rather than take 'the most responsibe position that is offered, to alleviate the damage to country and party'.

    One rule for Boris, one rule for others.

    It isn't laughable in the slightest. People who stuck with May being pilloried is a good example - that consequence makes what they did more admirable not less. What you're suggesting is that Stewart would rather wash his hands of the whole affair than face potential brickbats. Which is frankly the opposite of the ideal of public service, and if he rates his own capabilities as highly as he seems to, deliberately witholding them amounts to a disgrace.

    Secondly, what on earth has Boris' behaviour got to do with anything? I haven't held him up as any kind of example. To use that as a form of justification (which to be fair, Stewart hasn't done - I don't know what his line on it is) would be ridiculously peevish.

    As for building bridges, you build them between positions that appear incompatible - you find common ground. Stewart's refusal to serve confirms a growing impression I have that Stewart's bridges lead from himself to himself.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,963
    AndyJS said:

    I'm not sure Rory Stewart's supporters are going to be pleased with this:


    "'We need to reach out to you': Rory Stewart personally asks Nigel Farage for a deal with the Brexit Party"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/16/need-reach-rory-stewart-personally-asks-nigel-farage-deal-brexit/

    Yes not sure he needed to say that. But any deal would still include something going through parliament . The problem for the Tories is that Farage will trash anything and scream betrayal unless it’s a WTO Brexit .

    I think Stewart came across as too fawning to Farage and given most of his support is from the more pro EU wing sucking up to Farage is a bad move .

    He needs to repair the damage so will need a good debate tonight .
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,166
    Still the debate rages this afternoon between representatives of Blair/Brown government and Momentum kids. The latter just will not believe that the former did anything to help anyone.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited June 2019

    I'm probably not the only person whose read tweets from Lib Dems today hinting that there's a new financial scandal to come out shortly about Farage. No way of telling if they are true of course. But it is odd that the Brexit Party hasn't signed up to any groupings in the EU parliament yet. You'd have thought they'd be only too happy to get the extra funding.

    I thought Farage was in talks with the Italian 5 star movement - who haven't joined a group either - about recreating the EFDD group from the last parliament? Neither are a real fit for any other group and Farage certainly has made clear he doesn't want to join the Salvini/Le Pen group.

    They would easily have the 25 MEPs needed but need to find at least one MEP from five other member states which may prove more difficult. And of course some may be reluctant to join a group which won't last the full four years as it would collapse if and when Brexit happens.

    As for financial scandals about Farage - I am sure his financial arrangements and expenses will probably get more scrutiny than almost all the other MEPs from non Eurosceptic parties in Brussels combined. Brussels looks after their own.

    When the Telegraph published a story saying if Tommy Robinson got elected to the EU parliament - which he stood little chance of doing - he would cost us £2 million in salaries and expenses I thought they sort of missed the real issue. The story was surely that each MEP will cost European taxpayers £2 million over their term in expenses, pension contributions, salaries and more! Bar Farage and Hannan - and a couple of the more colourful Kippers - could any one name a single other UK MEP from the last parliament and what they actually achieved. Most people would struggle to name one.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,507
    Chris said:

    Like Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab did, you mean?
    Who's using them as an example?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,532

    Still the debate rages this afternoon between representatives of Blair/Brown government and Momentum kids. The latter just will not believe that the former did anything to help anyone.

    It's annoying that the latter seem obsessed with redistribution and don't consider the importance of distributive effects in the economy, which is where the case against New Labour is strongest, particularly their insouciance about the housing bubble.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    nichomar said:



    Well if they stick with Davies he is an ERG member so may have to answer the question

    I suspect if the recall petition is successful, they'll (reluctantly) dump him.

    The quality of the candidate matters a lot in a by-election, and Davies is clearly an incredible fool. They can't fight the by-election with him.

    If it is Davies versus Dodds, Dodds will win.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,877

    Who's using them as an example?
    My God, it comes to something when you can't even read the name on the top of the comment you're replying to!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    I have no idea.

    Is the (yet to be selected) Tory candidate for Brecon and Radnor actually arguing for a WTO BREXIT ?

    I think a Welsh farming seat should be represented by a Welsh farmer.

    Incidentally, I made the same point some time ago about the neighbouring constituency of Montgomeryshire.

    I said if the LibDems continue to choose London metropolitans with no connection to the seat (Carlisle, Opik), they would end up losing it.

    The Tories finally wised up and choose a Welsh-speaking farmer, and hey presto, the Montgomeryshire seat is now very safe for the Tories.
    I'll answer the question for you.

    A Tory by-election candidate, on the back of a Boris WTO BREXIT, in a large rural seat with substantial farming interests will have to explain to farmers where they will sell their produce against vastly cheaper competition.

    As far as the farming community, especially smaller farmers, is concerned the Conservative Taliban haven't thought the issue through.

    I suppose Boris with his noted attention to detail will be able to give the issue his full attention - half a nano second - and get others to clear up the mess. Meanwhile farmers will go bust.

    The subject is far too important than the issue of by-elections and your animus toward the LibDems and where the yellow peril candidate lives. Party politics be buggered because when the hullabaloo of a by-election is over there will be family livelihoods at stake.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    OllyT said:

    Not quite sure what the issue is, 80% of Welsh people don't speak Welsh and fear of being ruled by the Welsh-speaking mafia is, in my opinion, what has prevented Plaid Cymru emulating the SNP. I say that as a Welshman by the way.
    Neil Hamilton is the best representative of this position in the Welsh Assembly.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,334
    edited June 2019
    Under the current circumstances, the Tories could select the Archangel Gabriel in Brecon and Radnor and he is still not going to win. Alex Carlile- a distinguished QC, not a farmer- held Montgomery for 14 years before he retired. Amongst other things Jane Dodds is a human rights activist, but has been campaigning on the ground for a while and is going well.

    The "Are you local?" nonsense just shows how rattled the Tories are. Even with the "Boris surge" the Tories are barely 21%, and after the first major balls up, they will be back down into the teens.

    The Liberal Democrats are going to throw the kitchen sink into any by election, and increasingly they have campaign money when Labour and the Tories do not..
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,507
    edited June 2019
    Chris said:

    My God, it comes to something when you can't even read the name on the top of the comment you're replying to!
    :smiley:
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,166
    We seem to have moved onto pick the Johnson Cabinet now:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1140250677324800001
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    JackW said:

    I'll answer the question for you.

    A Tory by-election candidate, on the back of a Boris WTO BREXIT, in a large rural seat with substantial farming interests will have to explain to farmers where they will sell their produce against vastly cheaper competition.

    As far as the farming community, especially smaller farmers, is concerned the Conservative Taliban haven't thought the issue through.

    I suppose Boris with his noted attention to detail will be able to give the issue his full attention - half a nano second - and get others to clear up the mess. Meanwhile farmers will go bust.

    The subject is far too important than the issue of by-elections and your animus toward the LibDems and where the yellow peril candidate lives. Party politics be buggered because when the hullabaloo of a by-election is over there will be family livelihoods at stake.
    That is why it is important to have ****FARMERS**** as MPs.

    Rather than yet another former charity worker ... or a lawyer, or a banker, or teacher.

    Precisely because this view needs articulating by farmers.

    And that is all I said -- a Welsh farming seat should be represented by a Welsh farmer.

    I have no particular animus against the LibDems (any more than for Labour or the Tories) -- I would have voted for Richard Livsey.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,166
    Cicero said:

    Under the current circumstances, the Tories could select the Archangel Gabriel in Brecon and Radnor and he is still not going to win. Alex Carlile- a distinguished QC, not a farmer- held Montgomery for 14 years before he retired. Amongst other things Jane Dodds is a human rights activist, but has been campaigning on the ground for a while and is going well.

    The "Are you local?" nonsense just shows how rattled the Tories are. Even with the "Boris surge" the Tories are barely 21%, and after the first major balls up, they will be back down into the teens.

    The Liberal Democrats are going to throw the kitchen sink into any by election, and increasingly they have campaign money when Labour and the Tories do not..

    The writ has to be moved by the Tories doesn't it? If there is a recall. Could they stall until autumn?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,166

    That is why it is important to have ****FARMERS**** as MPs.

    Rather than yet another former charity worker ... or a lawyer, or a banker, or teacher.

    Precisely because this view needs articulating by farmers.

    And that is all I said -- a Welsh farming seat should be represented by a Welsh farmer.

    I have no particular animus against the LibDems (any more than for Labour or the Tories) -- I would have voted for Richard Livsey.
    Might not be so easy. I have no idea, but there may be a few members of local Liberal party who are actually farmers, but they might not fancy being an MP at all, never mind standing in a full TV-special by-election.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    nico67 said:

    Yes not sure he needed to say that. But any deal would still include something going through parliament . The problem for the Tories is that Farage will trash anything and scream betrayal unless it’s a WTO Brexit .

    I think Stewart came across as too fawning to Farage and given most of his support is from the more pro EU wing sucking up to Farage is a bad move .

    He needs to repair the damage so will need a good debate tonight .
    Rory Stewart had to deal with the warring factions in Iraq so Farage was a breeze. His offer is to bring the 52/48 together as far as possible so talking to Farage is appropriate.

    Stewart's refusal to serve in a Boris "No Deal" government is because it is intent at all costs on 31st October of not bringing the nation together.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,954
    If, when Boris becomes PM, there isn't a significant uptick in Tory polling how long will it take for panic to set in and what form will it take? I can quite imagine Boris being urged to start talks with Nigel on a TBP-Tory pact, ostensibly to join forces against the greater danger of communist Jezza. But would Nigel play along?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Cicero said:

    Under the current circumstances, the Tories could select the Archangel Gabriel in Brecon and Radnor and he is still not going to win. Alex Carlile- a distinguished QC, not a farmer- held Montgomery for 14 years before he retired. Amongst other things Jane Dodds is a human rights activist, but has been campaigning on the ground for a while and is going well.

    The "Are you local?" nonsense just shows how rattled the Tories are. Even with the "Boris surge" the Tories are barely 21%, and after the first major balls up, they will be back down into the teens.

    The Liberal Democrats are going to throw the kitchen sink into any by election, and increasingly they have campaign money when Labour and the Tories do not..

    A hilarious bulletin from Tallinn.

    "Alex Carlile- a distinguished QC, not a farmer- held Montgomery for 14 years before he retired."

    And he then LEFT the LibDems,

    (Incidentally, and for the second time to a fanatical LibDem who knows nothing about Wales, the name of the seat is Montgomeryshire.)
This discussion has been closed.