politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » To show they’re back in the game the LDs need the Brecon & Rad

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » To show they’re back in the game the LDs need the Brecon & Radnor recall petition to succeed and to win the ensuing by-election

This weekend has seen the last intensive campaigning in the Brecon and Radnor constituency to persuade those on the electoral roll to sign the petition that the sitting MP br recalled. This would create an immediate vacancy and a Westminster by-election would be called.

Read the full story here

CD13

Hello?

IanB2

Second!

Philip_Thompson

If the by-election is a week after the new leader is elected won't an issue be that postal ballots are posted while May is still leader?

IanB2

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

not_on_fire

What was the EU ref result there?

JackW

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

AlastairMeeks

You’d think the 10% threshold should be reached. Two recalls in a calendar year would suggest this might become a thing.

eek

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Don’t you have to fill in the petition at certain fixed locations? If that’s the case in a very rural constituency you may just not have enough people able to do so.

rcs1000

not_on_fire said:

What was the EU ref result there?

I think it was almost exactly inline with the country as a while: 53:47

My guess, and it's just a guess, is that the petition will succeed, but the conservatives will hold it by a whisker

AlastairMeeks

rcs1000 said:

not_on_fire said:

What was the EU ref result there?

I think it was almost exactly inline with the country as a while: 53:47

My guess, and it's just a guess, is that the petition will succeed, but the conservatives will hold it by a whisker

If the petition succeeds I’d expect a healthy Lib Dem win. The Brexit party would split the Conservative vote.

IanB2

AlastairMeeks said:

rcs1000 said:

not_on_fire said:

What was the EU ref result there?

I think it was almost exactly inline with the country as a while: 53:47

My guess, and it's just a guess, is that the petition will succeed, but the conservatives will hold it by a whisker

If the petition succeeds I’d expect a healthy Lib Dem win. The Brexit party would split the Conservative vote.

There's a risk of falling into a new PM honeymoon, I guess.

Peter_the_Punter

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?

The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.

Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.

MikeSmithson

AlastairMeeks said:

rcs1000 said:

not_on_fire said:

What was the EU ref result there?

I think it was almost exactly inline with the country as a while: 53:47

My guess, and it's just a guess, is that the petition will succeed, but the conservatives will hold it by a whisker

If the petition succeeds I’d expect a healthy Lib Dem win. The Brexit party would split the Conservative vote.

UKIP has never done well in the seat and only got 1.4% at GE2017.

Since 1970 four different parties have had MPs there.

LAB
LIB
CON
LD

MikeSmithson

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?

The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.

Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.

So fraud is a lesser offence than speeding in your eyes.

JackW

rcs1000 said:

not_on_fire said:

What was the EU ref result there?

I think it was almost exactly inline with the country as a while: 53:47

My guess, and it's just a guess, is that the petition will succeed, but the conservatives will hold it by a whisker

The Powys Euro result (includes B&R) :

Brexit Party: 35.3%
Lib Dems: 23.8%
Plaid Cymru: 12.2%
Conservative Party: 9%
Labour: 7.3%
Green Party: 7%
Ukip: 3.3%
Change UK: 1.9%

nichomar

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

It would be illegal to trail the progress and outcome of the recall petition.

ydoethur

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?

The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.

Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.

I doubt if there are 100,000 people in a constituency where the largest town is Ystradgynlais (population 8,000). In fact the electorate is around 50,000 which means 5,000 signatures are required. Logistically, that seems feasible to me knowing the seat quite well.

What I'm more doubtful about is whether 5,000 people will consider this a hanging offence. Unlike Onasanya, he fessed up, and he gained nothing from it, and the voters in this seat do love to show their independence by doing the opposite of what's expected of them - moreover they hate being preached to by outsiders.

I would put the chances of a recall at 6-4 against.

(BTW, does anyone else find the hypocrisy of Ian Lavery on the subject of integrity to be truly nauseating given his um, interesting financial arrangements?)

IanB2

Rawnsley: worth a read.

Notes that few of the ministers who served with Boris in Cabinet are backing him
Suggests Johnson would prefer to fight Hunt in the final and some of his supporters may vote accordingly

"And if it all goes horribly wrong? At least, I often hear Tories muse, a Johnson premiership “will cheer everyone up”. When your party looks like it is going to hell in a handcart, they reckon you might as well hurtle towards the inferno with a smile on your face. I warn them not to repeat this in public because I am not convinced that the wider nation will be laughing with them."


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/16/dirty-secrets-of-boris-johnsons-seduction-of-conservative-mps

JackW

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?

The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.

Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.

Indeed. I've always found it difficult to engage with the yellow peril except of course in the matter of fine pies where we clearly have common ground ....

StuartDickson

There’s not much of a Plaid Cymru vote to squeeze here (just three to four percent during this century), although PC have been doing very well in recent polling and in the Euros, where they beat Welsh Labour nationally.

I don’t normally advocate voting for a Unionist candidate (only previous occasions being where the despicable George Galloway has been in with a chance), but I really cannot see that it is worth voting PC here. Yes, we could aim to save the deposit for a change, but so what?

If I lived here, I’d be sorely tempted to vote WLD, as a one off. A lent couple of percent from us could make the difference. However, if it looked like a WLD shoo-in, I’d vote PC and keep my conscience as clean as possible.

Fair’s fair, Lib Dem voters often lend their support to the SNP and PC, especially recently, so only right we return the favour occasionally. Tactical voting is crucial if we are to defeat Brexit.

nichomar

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?

The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.

Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.

It’s about 5300 signatures needed and they can sign by post

Peter_the_Punter

MikeSmithson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?

The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.

Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.

So fraud is a lesser offence than speeding in your eyes.

The speeding wasn't the problem, was it? I thought it was the perjury and obstruction of justice.

I didn't follow the Davies case closely but had the impression it may have been more cock-up than conspiracy. Happy to be corrected if wrong.

ydoethur

MikeSmithson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?

The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.

Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.

So fraud is a lesser offence than speeding in your eyes.

She wasn't jailed for speeding. She was jailed for fraud and falsifying a document. She was also jailed for repeatedly lying about it.

OblitusSumMe

MikeSmithson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?

The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.

Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.

So fraud is a lesser offence than speeding in your eyes.

This was a technical case of fraud, rather than a more serious one, and it was the lying which was more serious than the speeding in the Peterborough MP case.

IanB2

AlastairMeeks said:

rcs1000 said:

not_on_fire said:

What was the EU ref result there?

I think it was almost exactly inline with the country as a while: 53:47

My guess, and it's just a guess, is that the petition will succeed, but the conservatives will hold it by a whisker

If the petition succeeds I’d expect a healthy Lib Dem win. The Brexit party would split the Conservative vote.

Surely you meant to say that the Tories will split the Brexit Party vote?

Peter_the_Punter

nichomar said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?

The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.

Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.

It’s about 5300 signatures needed and they can sign by post

Sorry, I had the 10% figure in mind. It's early and I always get flustered when Jack's around.

ydoethur

Peter_the_Punter said:

MikeSmithson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?

The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.

Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.

So fraud is a lesser offence than speeding in your eyes.

The speeding wasn't the problem, was it? I thought it was the perjury and obstruction of justice.

I didn't follow the Davies case closely but had the impression it may have been more cock-up than conspiracy. Happy to be corrected if wrong.

He submitted a false invoice so he could claim £220 extra expenses. He had legitimate expenses of £700 but only £480 left in the budget. So created a receipt of £450 for that, then another one of £250 so he could claim the rest elsewhere. For this he was fined £1500 and ordered to do 50 hours community work. That seems about fair.

It was incredibly stupid and very wrong, but is rather different from breaking the law for no obvious reason, giving false evidence in a criminal matter and repeatedly lying about and racially abusing a judge.

OblitusSumMe

I agree with ydoethur that there are reasons to think the petition will fall short. I think it's a good test of the procedure and whether it was necessary to restrict recall petitions to certain circumstances, or allow them more freely as was the original intention.

IanB2

ydoethur said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

MikeSmithson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?

The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.

Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.

So fraud is a lesser offence than speeding in your eyes.

The speeding wasn't the problem, was it? I thought it was the perjury and obstruction of justice.

I didn't follow the Davies case closely but had the impression it may have been more cock-up than conspiracy. Happy to be corrected if wrong.

He submitted a false invoice so he could claim £220 extra expenses. He had legitimate expenses of £700 but only £480 left in the budget. So created a receipt of £450 for that, then another one of £250 so he could claim the rest elsewhere. For this he was fined £1500 and ordered to do 50 hours community work. That seems about fair.

It was incredibly stupid and very wrong, but is rather different from breaking the law for no obvious reason, giving false evidence in a criminal matter and repeatedly lying about and racially abusing a judge.

Both come down to the standards of honesty and integrity we should expect from those who set the rules for the rest of us, though.

Do we think someone caught doing the same with their company expenses would keep their job?

AlastairMeeks

https://twitter.com/anthonybmasters/status/1140151764609617925?s=21

nichomar

ydoethur said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

MikeSmithson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?

The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.

Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.

So fraud is a lesser offence than speeding in your eyes.

The speeding wasn't the problem, was it? I thought it was the perjury and obstruction of justice.

I didn't follow the Davies case closely but had the impression it may have been more cock-up than conspiracy. Happy to be corrected if wrong.

He submitted a false invoice so he could claim £220 extra expenses. He had legitimate expenses of £700 but only £480 left in the budget. So created a receipt of £450 for that, then another one of £250 so he could claim the rest elsewhere. For this he was fined £1500 and ordered to do 50 hours community work. That seems about fair.

It was incredibly stupid and very wrong, but is rather different from breaking the law for no obvious reason, giving false evidence in a criminal matter and repeatedly lying about and racially abusing a judge.

People may be more pissed off that he was spending £1500 on pictures for his office wall, why he couldn’t have used old posters of may and thatcher I don’t know.

JackW

eek said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Don’t you have to fill in the petition at certain fixed locations? If that’s the case in a very rural constituency you may just not have enough people able to do so.

Yes. Six locations. Just over 5,300 signatures required :

https://en.powys.gov.uk/article/7270/Public-notice-of-petition-to-remove-the-MP-for-Brecon-and-Radnorshire-Chris-Davies

It's worthy of note that last year Ian Paisley Jnr was not recalled after the petiton failed by 0.6% :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_North_Antrim_recall_petition

MarqueeMark

rcs1000 said:

not_on_fire said:

What was the EU ref result there?

I think it was almost exactly inline with the country as a while: 53:47

My guess, and it's just a guess, is that the petition will succeed, but the conservatives will hold it by a whisker

Depends who the candidate is for the Conservatives. Now, if the Brecon voters decided that Stanley Johnson should be in the House, to keep a check on Boris.....

ydoethur

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

MikeSmithson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?

The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.

Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.

So fraud is a lesser offence than speeding in your eyes.

The speeding wasn't the problem, was it? I thought it was the perjury and obstruction of justice.

I didn't follow the Davies case closely but had the impression it may have been more cock-up than conspiracy. Happy to be corrected if wrong.

He submitted a false invoice so he could claim £220 extra expenses. He had legitimate expenses of £700 but only £480 left in the budget. So created a receipt of £450 for that, then another one of £250 so he could claim the rest elsewhere. For this he was fined £1500 and ordered to do 50 hours community work. That seems about fair.

It was incredibly stupid and very wrong, but is rather different from breaking the law for no obvious reason, giving false evidence in a criminal matter and repeatedly lying about and racially abusing a judge.

Both come down to the standards of honesty and integrity we should expect from those who set the rules for the rest of us, though.

Do we think someone caught doing the same with their company expenses would keep their job?

Company expenses would surely show flexibility in such a case? That is, you would submit the receipt, and then the company would decide how much and from where to reimburse you.

Let me ask you another question. Should David Laws have been recalled and lost his seat over his expenses claims? Because the offences were basically very similar - manipulation of documents to hide the true nature of the claim. If your answer is no, are double standards applying?

(I know he lost his seat anyway.)

IanB2

eek said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Don’t you have to fill in the petition at certain fixed locations? If that’s the case in a very rural constituency you may just not have enough people able to do so.

People living in rural areas do go into their towns and villages fairly regularly, though. They don't just sit in their farms and have everything delivered.

JackW

nichomar said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

It would be illegal to trail the progress and outcome of the recall petition.

I refer the honourable gentleman to the "mood music" at election counts.

JackW

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

not_on_fire said:

What was the EU ref result there?

I think it was almost exactly inline with the country as a while: 53:47

My guess, and it's just a guess, is that the petition will succeed, but the conservatives will hold it by a whisker

Depends who the candidate is for the Conservatives. Now, if the Brecon voters decided that Stanley Johnson should be in the House, to keep a check on Boris.....

And Rachel Johnson as the LibDem candidate. Keep it in the family ....

nichomar

JackW said:

nichomar said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

It would be illegal to trail the progress and outcome of the recall petition.

I refer the honourable gentleman to the "mood music" at election counts.

I know that it’s common to leak info at counts and that is illegal but they appear to be determined to stop people reporting the progress of the petition whilst it is still open. Are there betting markets on the potential by election outcome?

IanB2

ydoethur said:

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

MikeSmithson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

o engage?

Wise

h such types.

Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.

So fraud is a lesser offence than speeding in your eyes.

The speeding wasn't the problem, was it? I thought it was the perjury and obstruction of justice.

I didn't follow the Davies case closely but had the impression it may have been more cock-up than conspiracy. Happy to be corrected if wrong.

He submitted a false invoice so he could claim £220 extra expenses. He had legitimate expenses of £700 but only £480 left in the budget. So created a receipt of £450 for that, then another one of £250 so he could claim the rest elsewhere. For this he was fined £1500 and ordered to do 50 hours community work. That seems about fair.

It was incredibly stupid and very wrong, but is rather different from breaking the law for no obvious reason, giving false evidence in a criminal matter and repeatedly lying about and racially abusing a judge.

Both come down to the standards of honesty and integrity we should expect from those who set the rules for the rest of us, though.

Do we think someone caught doing the same with their company expenses would keep their job?

Company expenses would surely show flexibility in such a case? That is, you would submit the receipt, and then the company would decide how much and from where to reimburse you.

Let me ask you another question. Should David Laws have been recalled and lost his seat over his expenses claims? Because the offences were basically very similar - manipulation of documents to hide the true nature of the claim. If your answer is no, are double standards applying?

(I know he lost his seat anyway.)

I used to run expenses policy for one of the country's largest employers, and personally I would have got rid of a whole load of MPs who were making what I would regard as unacceptable claims. A fair few of the house flippers and so on are still in office. The difficulty they had was the lack of clear written rules.

I reckon most companies would take a dim view of someone presenting forged invoices in order in some way to maximise the claim, even where the expenses had been actually incurred. They'd unlikely be caught, of course, except in the same circumstances as the MP: being dobbed by a disgruntled member of staff.

YBarddCwsc

IanB2 said:

Both come down to the standards of honesty and integrity we should expect from those who set the rules for the rest of us, though.

Do we think someone caught doing the same with their company expenses would keep their job?

Jesus, the sheer hypocrisy of the LibDems is breathtaking .... No wonder we all cheer when LibDem MPs are carted off to jail.

My main reaction to both Chris Davies and Fiona Onasanya is it shows the sheer, unbelievable idiocy and stupidity of our MPs.

Both threw it all away for nothing, really trivial things. Just take the points on your licence, it is not a big deal. Just pay the 220 pounds yourself for photos. Are most MPs really so brain-dead that they gamble everything for almost nothing?

I am not a Tory, but I would not sign this petition. The offence does not seem serious enough.

Let's hope the LibDems have managed to keep their expenses to within the permitted limits for the recall petition. They have plenty of form in mid-Wales of breaching electoral law -- the lily-whiteness of IanB2 notwithstanding.

Jonathan

Yet another depressing day in politics! Wahey!

ydoethur

JackW said:

eek said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Don’t you have to fill in the petition at certain fixed locations? If that’s the case in a very rural constituency you may just not have enough people able to do so.

Yes. Six locations. Just over 5,300 signatures required :

https://en.powys.gov.uk/article/7270/Public-notice-of-petition-to-remove-the-MP-for-Brecon-and-Radnorshire-Chris-Davies

It's worthy of note that last year Ian Paisley Jnr was not recalled after the petiton failed by 0.6% :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_North_Antrim_recall_petition

I would have said one reason to be dubious about the success of this petition is that the West of the constituency where the Liberal Democrats are strongest isn't well represented in those six. Most people in the more Liberal areas will look to Llanidloes, Lampeter and Tregaron as their 'urban centres.' And the one that comes closest to it, County Hall in Llandod, is a bugger to get to. You would have to make a conscious decision to go there, parking isn't great and it's hardly an easy walk from the town centre. Presteigne and Crickhowell are quite Tory in outlook, Hay isn't but isn't big enough on its own to make much difference while the surrounding area is quite blue, while Brecon isn't exactly a hotbed of political activity.

Ystradgynlais would seem the key one, but again few people go there who don't live there.

Charles

MikeSmithson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?

The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.

Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.

So fraud is a lesser offence than speeding in your eyes.

That post illustrates exactly why this sort of case should be dealt with by the courts not politics

It was very much a technical offence, with no intention of personal gain. He was an idiot who could - and should - have handled it differently. He’s been punished for it.

And yes: his specific offence was much less significant than lying to the police and trying to implicate an innocent party in a crime

IanB2

nichomar said:

JackW said:

nichomar said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

It would be illegal to trail the progress and outcome of the recall petition.

I refer the honourable gentleman to the "mood music" at election counts.

I know that it’s common to leak info at counts and that is illegal but they appear to be determined to stop people reporting the progress of the petition whilst it is still open. Are there betting markets on the potential by election outcome?

If the LDs have done a lot of canvassing, they should have a fair idea of the proportion who have signed it, particularly as people are more likely to be honest about whether they have or haven't, will or wont, than they are on the doorstep about voting intention.

The issue of course is that they don't have any incentive to publicise what they know. If the petition is going really well, they don't want people to know it's in the bag since a bigger petition gets the by-election off to a flying start, and everyone who signed it will already feel some stake in the outcome. Whereas if its going very badly they wont want to put people off or suggest their campaign is struggling.

ydoethur

IanB2 said:

>I used to run expenses policy for one of the country's largest employers, and personally I would have got rid of a whole load of MPs who were making what I would regard as unacceptable claims. A fair few of the house flippers and so on are still in office. The difficulty they had was the lack of clear written rules.

I reckon most companies would take a dim view of someone presenting forged invoices in order in some way to maximise the claim, even where the expenses had been actually incurred. They'd unlikely be caught, of course, except in the same circumstances as the MP: being dobbed by a disgruntled member of staff.

Noted you didn't answer my question directly. I will take that as an implicit 'yes.'

My point is I don't think he would have needed to forge the invoice as a way could have been found to sort it out. Precisely because the rules have been tightened that wasn't an option here. That means however he shouldn't have been stupid enough to go over budget.

I offer unqualified endorsement to @YBarddCwsc regarding this shows how daft our politicians are.

JackW

Peter_the_Punter said:

Sorry, I had the 10% figure in mind. It's early and I always get flustered when Jack's around.

Chortle

IanB2

Charles said:

MikeSmithson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?

The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.

Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.

So fraud is a lesser offence than speeding in your eyes.

That post illustrates exactly why this sort of case should be dealt with by the courts not politics

It was very much a technical offence, with no intention of personal gain. He was an idiot who could - and should - have handled it differently. He’s been punished for it.

And yes: his specific offence was much less significant than lying to the police and trying to implicate an innocent party in a crime

If there had been no benefit to him, he wouldn't have gone to the trouble. Forging any sort of official document is never a good look.

JackW

nichomar said:

I know that it’s common to leak info at counts and that is illegal but they appear to be determined to stop people reporting the progress of the petition whilst it is still open. Are there betting markets on the potential by election outcome?

Not that I'm aware of. Markets appear to awaiting the recall result.

Charles

ydoethur said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

MikeSmithson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?

The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.

Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.

So fraud is a lesser offence than speeding in your eyes.

The speeding wasn't the problem, was it? I thought it was the perjury and obstruction of justice.

I didn't follow the Davies case closely but had the impression it may have been more cock-up than conspiracy. Happy to be corrected if wrong.

He submitted a false invoice so he could claim £220 extra expenses. He had legitimate expenses of £700 but only £480 left in the budget. So created a receipt of £450 for that, then another one of £250 so he could claim the rest elsewhere. For this he was fined £1500 and ordered to do 50 hours community work. That seems about fair.

It was incredibly stupid and very wrong, but is rather different from breaking the law for no obvious reason, giving false evidence in a criminal matter and repeatedly lying about and racially abusing a judge.

What I don’t understand is why he didn’t duplicate the invoice and do a partial claim to both accounts?

nichomar

Charles said:

MikeSmithson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?

The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.

Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.

So fraud is a lesser offence than speeding in your eyes.

That post illustrates exactly why this sort of case should be dealt with by the courts not politics

It was very much a technical offence, with no intention of personal gain. He was an idiot who could - and should - have handled it differently. He’s been punished for it.

And yes: his specific offence was much less significant than lying to the police and trying to implicate an innocent party in a crime

The recall act specifically references falsifying expense claims as one of the three automatic triggers of a recall, the Peterborough recall was for having been sentenced to a period in jail. Don’t forget the current MP can stand as a conservative if they and their party believe it was a minor offense.

ydoethur

Charles said:

ydoethur said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

MikeSmithson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?

The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.

Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.

So fraud is a lesser offence than speeding in your eyes.

The speeding wasn't the problem, was it? I thought it was the perjury and obstruction of justice.

I didn't follow the Davies case closely but had the impression it may have been more cock-up than conspiracy. Happy to be corrected if wrong.

He submitted a false invoice so he could claim £220 extra expenses. He had legitimate expenses of £700 but only £480 left in the budget. So created a receipt of £450 for that, then another one of £250 so he could claim the rest elsewhere. For this he was fined £1500 and ordered to do 50 hours community work. That seems about fair.

It was incredibly stupid and very wrong, but is rather different from breaking the law for no obvious reason, giving false evidence in a criminal matter and repeatedly lying about and racially abusing a judge.

What I don’t understand is why he didn’t duplicate the invoice and do a partial claim to both accounts?

I think we should consider the possibility that it's because he's an idiot.

YBarddCwsc

And, incidentally, the leaflet in the picture is electoral literature from which party?

All printed petition literature must have an imprint. Presumably, it is on the reverse.

I am just curious as to which political party sets so much faith in "The Sun" newspaper that it quotes it on its campaign literature.

ydoethur

Jonathan said:

Yet another depressing day in politics! Wahey!

Let me cheer you up with a schoolboy howler:

'Richard III's reign ended at the Battle of Bosworth. This was mostly because he was killed.'

No shit, Sherlock...

IanB2

YBarddCwsc said:

IanB2 said:

Both come down to the standards of honesty and integrity we should expect from those who set the rules for the rest of us, though.

Do we think someone caught doing the same with their company expenses would keep their job?

Jesus, the sheer hypocrisy of the LibDems is breathtaking .... No wonder we all cheer when LibDem MPs are carted off to jail.

My main reaction to both Chris Davies and Fiona Onasanya is it shows the sheer, unbelievable idiocy and stupidity of our MPs.

Both threw it all away for nothing, really trivial things. Just take the points on your licence, it is not a big deal. Just pay the 220 pounds yourself for photos. Are most MPs really so brain-dead that they gamble everything for almost nothing?

I am not a Tory, but I would not sign this petition. The offence does not seem serious enough.

Let's hope the LibDems have managed to keep their expenses to within the permitted limits for the recall petition. They have plenty of form in mid-Wales of breaching electoral law -- the lily-whiteness of IanB2 notwithstanding.

Lol. Having spent half a lifetime dealing with expenses cases including some through to dismissal and prosecution, you are right that my own claims were always 100% compliant! In my time I saw everything from silly mistakes to some appalling shockers. I suspect my workplace experience has influenced my own perspective rather more than my politics.

MarqueeMark

JackW said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

not_on_fire said:

What was the EU ref result there?

I think it was almost exactly inline with the country as a while: 53:47

My guess, and it's just a guess, is that the petition will succeed, but the conservatives will hold it by a whisker

Depends who the candidate is for the Conservatives. Now, if the Brecon voters decided that Stanley Johnson should be in the House, to keep a check on Boris.....

And Rachel Johnson as the LibDem candidate. Keep it in the family ....

I did consider that, but thought that current (former?) CHUKer Rachel Johnson being a political opportunist just to get power might undermine some of their attacks on Boris.....

Charles

ydoethur said:

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

MikeSmithson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.

Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.

So fraud is a lesser offence than speeding in your eyes.

The speeding wasn't the problem, was it? I thought it was the perjury and obstruction of justice.

I didn't follow the Davies case closely but had the impression it may have been more cock-up than conspiracy. Happy to be corrected if wrong.

He submitted a false invoice so he could claim £220 extra expenses. He had legitimate expenses of £700 but only £480 left in the budget. So created a receipt of £450 for that, then another one of £250 so he could claim the rest elsewhere. For this he was fined £1500 and ordered to do 50 hours community work. That seems about fair.

It was incredibly stupid and very wrong, but is rather different from breaking the law for no obvious reason, giving false evidence in a criminal matter and repeatedly lying about and racially abusing a judge.

Both come down to the standards of honesty and integrity we should expect from those who set the rules for the rest of us, though.

Do we think someone caught doing the same with their company expenses would keep their job?

Company expenses would surely show flexibility in such a case? That is, you would submit the receipt, and then the company would decide how much and from where to reimburse you.

Let me ask you another question. Should David Laws have been recalled and lost his seat over his expenses claims? Because the offences were basically very similar - manipulation of documents to hide the true nature of the claim. If your answer is no, are double standards applying?

(I know he lost his seat anyway.)

It’s been a long time since I looked at the David Laws case. But didn’t he conceal the nature of his relationship with his partner (he said because he wasn’t ready to come out as gay)?

As a result he claimed expenses *that he wouldn’t have been entitled to* if he’d been honest about the facts

That’s very different and much more serious

Charles

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

MikeSmithson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

o engage?

Wise

h such types.

Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.

So fraud is a lesser offence than speeding in your eyes.

The speeding wasn't the problem, was it? I thought it was the perjury and obstruction of justice.

I didn't follow the Davies case closely but had the impression it may have been more cock-up than conspiracy. Happy to be corrected if wrong.

He submitted a false invoice so he could claim £220 extra expenses. He had legitimate expenses of £700 but only £480 left in the budget. So created a receipt of £450 for that, then another one of £250 so he could claim the rest elsewhere. For this he was fined £1500 and ordered to do 50 hours community work. That seems about fair.

It was incredibly stupid and very wrong, but is rather different from breaking the law for no obvious reason, giving false evidence in a criminal matter and repeatedly lying about and racially abusing a judge.

Both come down to the standards of honesty and integrity we should expect from those who set the rules for the rest of us, though.

Do we think someone caught doing the same with their company expenses would keep their job?

Company expenses would surely show flexibility in such a case? That is, you would submit the receipt, and then the company would decide how much and from where to reimburse you.

Let me ask you another question. Should David Laws have been recalled and lost his seat over his expenses claims? Because the offences were basically very similar - manipulation of documents to hide the true nature of the claim. If your answer is no, are double standards applying?

(I know he lost his seat anyway.)

I used to run expenses policy for one of the country's largest employers, and personally I would have got rid of a whole load of MPs who were making what I would regard as unacceptable claims. A fair few of the house flippers and so on are still in office. The difficulty they had was the lack of clear written rules.

I reckon most companies would take a dim view of someone presenting forged invoices in order in some way to maximise the claim, even where the expenses had been actually incurred. They'd unlikely be caught, of course, except in the same circumstances as the MP: being dobbed by a disgruntled member of staff.

Agreed, although I don’t think a first time offence would be a sacking offence

But every future claim would be scrutinised

MarqueeMark

ydoethur said:

Jonathan said:

Yet another depressing day in politics! Wahey!

Let me cheer you up with a schoolboy howler:

'Richard III's reign ended at the Battle of Bosworth. This was mostly because he was killed.'

No shit, Sherlock...

Humour doesn't get enough marks in exams.....

MikeSmithson

There are rigid legal controls over what can be said and done during a recall petition campaign which is limiting. But the party machine can collect a huge amount of useful data. Thus is canvassers are told by a voter that they have have/will sign then that will go on the database for use during election campaign. In this case you would assume that they are anti-Tory.

Charles

ydoethur said:

JackW said:

eek said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Don’t you have to fill in the petition at certain fixed locations? If that’s the case in a very rural constituency you may just not have enough people able to do so.

Yes. Six locations. Just over 5,300 signatures required :

https://en.powys.gov.uk/article/7270/Public-notice-of-petition-to-remove-the-MP-for-Brecon-and-Radnorshire-Chris-Davies

It's worthy of note that last year Ian Paisley Jnr was not recalled after the petiton failed by 0.6% :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_North_Antrim_recall_petition

I would have said one reason to be dubious about the success of this petition is that the West of the constituency where the Liberal Democrats are strongest isn't well represented in those six. Most people in the more Liberal areas will look to Llanidloes, Lampeter and Tregaron as their 'urban centres.' And the one that comes closest to it, County Hall in Llandod, is a bugger to get to. You would have to make a conscious decision to go there, parking isn't great and it's hardly an easy walk from the town centre. Presteigne and Crickhowell are quite Tory in outlook, Hay isn't but isn't big enough on its own to make much difference while the surrounding area is quite blue, while Brecon isn't exactly a hotbed of political activity.

Ystradgynlais would seem the key one, but again few people go there who don't live there.

The beauty of PB...

We can discuss the impact of parking arrangements in a Welsh market town on national politics 😂

ydoethur

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

Jonathan said:

Yet another depressing day in politics! Wahey!

Let me cheer you up with a schoolboy howler:

'Richard III's reign ended at the Battle of Bosworth. This was mostly because he was killed.'

No shit, Sherlock...

Humour doesn't get enough marks in exams.....

Many years ago while marking for a part one degree, I gave a student ten marks for the following:

'I've no fucking clue what the answer is. I was hoping for a question on women.'

Can't do that in schools unfortunately (or perhaps fortunately).

OblitusSumMe

AlastairMeeks said:

You’d think the 10% threshold should be reached. Two recalls in a calendar year would suggest this might become a thing.

If this petition does succeed then I'd expect a large amount of pressure on future MPs in a similar situation to resign rather than face the petition. You wound then see fewer petitions and more resignations.

Charles

IanB2 said:

Charles said:

MikeSmithson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?

The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.

Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.

So fraud is a lesser offence than speeding in your eyes.

That post illustrates exactly why this sort of case should be dealt with by the courts not politics

It was very much a technical offence, with no intention of personal gain. He was an idiot who could - and should - have handled it differently. He’s been punished for it.

And yes: his specific offence was much less significant than lying to the police and trying to implicate an innocent party in a crime

If there had been no benefit to him, he wouldn't have gone to the trouble. Forging any sort of official document is never a good look.

Poorly phrased - I meant than the expenses had been legitimately incurred. He wasn’t trying to profit from fake claims

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1140167875375841280

Charles

ydoethur said:

Charles said:

ydoethur said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

MikeSmithson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?

The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.

Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.

So fraud is a lesser offence than speeding in your eyes.

The speeding wasn't the problem, was it? I thought it was the perjury and obstruction of justice.

I didn't follow the Davies case closely but had the impression it may have been more cock-up than conspiracy. Happy to be corrected if wrong.

He submitted a false invoice so he could claim £220 extra expenses. He had legitimate expenses of £700 but only £480 left in the budget. So created a receipt of £450 for that, then another one of £250 so he could claim the rest elsewhere. For this he was fined £1500 and ordered to do 50 hours community work. That seems about fair.

It was incredibly stupid and very wrong, but is rather different from breaking the law for no obvious reason, giving false evidence in a criminal matter and repeatedly lying about and racially abusing a judge.

What I don’t understand is why he didn’t duplicate the invoice and do a partial claim to both accounts?

I think we should consider the possibility that it's because he's an idiot.

He’s definitely that

I suspect it’s because the rules say that claims must be accompanied by original invoices and there was no procedure (eg affidavit as my employer uses) for lost/unavailable invoices

MikeSmithson

nichomar said:

Charles said:

MikeSmithson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?

The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.

Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.

So fraud is a lesser offence than speeding in your eyes.

That post illustrates exactly why this sort of case should be dealt with by the courts not politics

It was very much a technical offence, with no intention of personal gain. He was an idiot who could - and should - have handled it differently. He’s been punished for it.

And yes: his specific offence was much less significant than lying to the police and trying to implicate an innocent party in a crime

The recall act specifically references falsifying expense claims as one of the three automatic triggers of a recall, the Peterborough recall was for having been sentenced to a period in jail. Don’t forget the current MP can stand as a conservative if they and their party believe it was a minor offense.

This is a good account of the case and is more much serious than some posters on this thread have suggested.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/chris-davies-expenses-conservative-mp-southwark-crown-court-brecon-radnorshire-a8924161.html

ydoethur

Charles said:

ydoethur said:

JackW said:

eek said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Don’t you have to fill in the petition at certain fixed locations? If that’s the case in a very rural constituency you may just not have enough people able to do so.

Yes. Six locations. Just over 5,300 signatures required :

https://en.powys.gov.uk/article/7270/Public-notice-of-petition-to-remove-the-MP-for-Brecon-and-Radnorshire-Chris-Davies

It's worthy of note that last year Ian Paisley Jnr was not recalled after the petiton failed by 0.6% :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_North_Antrim_recall_petition

I would have said one reason to be dubious about the success of this petition is that the West of the constituency where the Liberal Democrats are strongest isn't well represented in those six. Most people in the more Liberal areas will look to Llanidloes, Lampeter and Tregaron as their 'urban centres.' And the one that comes closest to it, County Hall in Llandod, is a bugger to get to. You would have to make a conscious decision to go there, parking isn't great and it's hardly an easy walk from the town centre. Presteigne and Crickhowell are quite Tory in outlook, Hay isn't but isn't big enough on its own to make much difference while the surrounding area is quite blue, while Brecon isn't exactly a hotbed of political activity.

Ystradgynlais would seem the key one, but again few people go there who don't live there.

The beauty of PB...

We can discuss the impact of parking arrangements in a Welsh market town on national politics 😂

The people of Llandod would object to that.

They are a Welsh COUNTY town.

And they never let us forget it...

(Incidentally, I missed Llandovery off the list of urban centres not in the petition but vital to the western areas of the constituency.)

MikeSmithson

Charles said:

IanB2 said:

Charles said:

MikeSmithson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?

The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.

Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.

So fraud is a lesser offence than speeding in your eyes.

That post illustrates exactly why this sort of case should be dealt with by the courts not politics

It was very much a technical offence, with no intention of personal gain. He was an idiot who could - and should - have handled it differently. He’s been punished for it.

And yes: his specific offence was much less significant than lying to the police and trying to implicate an innocent party in a crime

If there had been no benefit to him, he wouldn't have gone to the trouble. Forging any sort of official document is never a good look.

Poorly phrased - I meant than the expenses had been legitimately incurred. He wasn’t trying to profit from fake claims

Read this. Your whitewashed version is not correct.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/chris-davies-expenses-conservative-mp-southwark-crown-court-brecon-radnorshire-a8924161.html

nichomar

Charles said:

ydoethur said:

JackW said:

eek said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Don’t you have to fill in the petition at certain fixed locations? If that’s the case in a very rural constituency you may just not have enough people able to do so.

Yes. Six locations. Just over 5,300 signatures required :

https://en.powys.gov.uk/article/7270/Public-notice-of-petition-to-remove-the-MP-for-Brecon-and-Radnorshire-Chris-Davies

It's worthy of note that last year Ian Paisley Jnr was not recalled after the petiton failed by 0.6% :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_North_Antrim_recall_petition

I would have said one reason to be dubious about the success of this petition is that the West of the constituency where the Liberal Democrats are strongest isn't well represented in those six. Most people in the more Liberal areas will look to Llanidloes, Lampeter and Tregaron as their 'urban centres.' And the one that comes closest to it, County Hall in Llandod, is a bugger to get to. You would have to make a conscious decision to go there, parking isn't great and it's hardly an easy walk from the town centre. Presteigne and Crickhowell are quite Tory in outlook, Hay isn't but isn't big enough on its own to make much difference while the surrounding area is quite blue, while Brecon isn't exactly a hotbed of political activity.

Ystradgynlais would seem the key one, but again few people go there who don't live there.

The beauty of PB...

We can discuss the impact of parking arrangements in a Welsh market town on national politics 😂

You can sign by post or proxy so the parking facilities don’t need to be over stretched just those rural post boxes.

IanB2

nichomar said:

Charles said:

ydoethur said:

JackW said:

eek said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Don’t you have to fill in the petition at certain fixed locations? If that’s the case in a very rural constituency you may just not have enough people able to do so.

Yes. Six locations. Just over 5,300 signatures required :

https://en.powys.gov.uk/article/7270/Public-notice-of-petition-to-remove-the-MP-for-Brecon-and-Radnorshire-Chris-Davies

It's worthy of note that last year Ian Paisley Jnr was not recalled after the petiton failed by 0.6% :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_North_Antrim_recall_petition

I would have said one reason to be dubious about the success of this petition is that the West of the constituency where the Liberal Democrats are strongest isn't well represented in those six. Most people in the more Liberal areas will look to Llanidloes, Lampeter and Tregaron as their 'urban centres.' And the one that comes closest to it, County Hall in Llandod, is a bugger to get to. You would have to make a conscious decision to go there, parking isn't great and it's hardly an easy walk from the town centre. Presteigne and Crickhowell are quite Tory in outlook, Hay isn't but isn't big enough on its own to make much difference while the surrounding area is quite blue, while Brecon isn't exactly a hotbed of political activity.

Ystradgynlais would seem the key one, but again few people go there who don't live there.

The beauty of PB...

We can discuss the impact of parking arrangements in a Welsh market town on national politics 😂

You can sign by post or proxy so the parking facilities don’t need to be over stretched just those rural post boxes.

And all Postal Voters have been mailed a copy of the form automatically

MikeSmithson

nichomar said:

Charles said:

ydoethur said:

JackW said:

eek said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Don’t you have to fill in the petition at certain fixed locations? If that’s the case in a very rural constituency you may just not have enough people able to do so.

Yes. Six locations. Just over 5,300 signatures required :

https://en.powys.gov.uk/article/7270/Public-notice-of-petition-to-remove-the-MP-for-Brecon-and-Radnorshire-Chris-Davies

It's worthy of note that last year Ian Paisley Jnr was not recalled after the petiton failed by 0.6% :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_North_Antrim_recall_petition

I would have said one reason to be dubious about the success of this petition is that the West of the constituency where the Liberal Democrats are strongest isn't well represented in those six. Most people in the more Liberal areas will look to Llanidloes, Lampeter and Tregaron as their 'urban centres.' And the one that comes closest to it, County Hall in Llandod, is a bugger to get to. You would have to make a conscious decision to go there, parking isn't great and it's hardly an easy walk from the town centre. Presteigne and Crickhowell are quite Tory in outlook, Hay isn't but isn't big enough on its own to make much difference while the surrounding area is quite blue, while Brecon isn't exactly a hotbed of political activity.

Ystradgynlais would seem the key one, but again few people go there who don't live there.

The beauty of PB...

We can discuss the impact of parking arrangements in a Welsh market town on national politics 😂

You can sign by post or proxy so the parking facilities don’t need to be over stretched just those rural post boxes.

Indeed. 8k+ postal petition packs have been sent out. Just over 5k signatures are required for this to succeed.

Pulpstar

JackW said:

rcs1000 said:

not_on_fire said:

What was the EU ref result there?

I think it was almost exactly inline with the country as a while: 53:47

My guess, and it's just a guess, is that the petition will succeed, but the conservatives will hold it by a whisker

The Powys Euro result (includes B&R) :

Brexit Party: 35.3%
Lib Dems: 23.8%
Plaid Cymru: 12.2%
Conservative Party: 9%
Labour: 7.3%
Green Party: 7%
Ukip: 3.3%
Change UK: 1.9%

Suggests a thumping Lib Dem win

Charles

MikeSmithson said:

nichomar said:

Charles said:

MikeSmithson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?

The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.

Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.

So fraud is a lesser offence than speeding in your eyes.

That post illustrates exactly why this sort of case should be dealt with by the courts not politics

It was very much a technical offence, with no intention of personal gain. He was an idiot who could - and should - have handled it differently. He’s been punished for it.

And yes: his specific offence was much less significant than lying to the police and trying to implicate an innocent party in a crime

The recall act specifically references falsifying expense claims as one of the three automatic triggers of a recall, the Peterborough recall was for having been sentenced to a period in jail. Don’t forget the current MP can stand as a conservative if they and their party believe it was a minor offense.

This is a good account of the case and is more much serious than some posters on this thread have suggested.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/chris-davies-expenses-conservative-mp-southwark-crown-court-brecon-radnorshire-a8924161.html

It’s a reasonable summary but states exactly what most posters on the thread have said - he faked an invoice to claim expenses which had been properly incurred but that he had to split between two budgets.

The judge puts his finger on the most disturbing impact - that he chose to forge. Once a cheater always a cheater.

Charles

MikeSmithson said:

Charles said:

IanB2 said:

Charles said:

MikeSmithson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?

The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.

Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.

So fraud is a lesser offence than speeding in your eyes.

That post illustrates exactly why this sort of case should be dealt with by the courts not politics

It was very much a technical offence, with no intention of personal gain. He was an idiot who could - and should - have handled it differently. He’s been punished for it.

And yes: his specific offence was much less significant than lying to the police and trying to implicate an innocent party in a crime

If there had been no benefit to him, he wouldn't have gone to the trouble. Forging any sort of official document is never a good look.

Poorly phrased - I meant than the expenses had been legitimately incurred. He wasn’t trying to profit from fake claims

Read this. Your whitewashed version is not correct.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/chris-davies-expenses-conservative-mp-southwark-crown-court-brecon-radnorshire-a8924161.html

? We are both describing the same set of facts accurately. We draw different conclusions.

IanB2

Charles said:

IanB2 said:

Charles said:

MikeSmithson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?

The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.

Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.

So fraud is a lesser offence than speeding in your eyes.

That post illustrates exactly why this sort of case should be dealt with by the courts not politics

It was very much a technical offence, with no intention of personal gain. He was an idiot who could - and should - have handled it differently. He’s been punished for it.

And yes: his specific offence was much less significant than lying to the police and trying to implicate an innocent party in a crime

If there had been no benefit to him, he wouldn't have gone to the trouble. Forging any sort of official document is never a good look.

Poorly phrased - I meant than the expenses had been legitimately incurred. He wasn’t trying to profit from fake claims

Well he was better off claiming with the forged receipt than he would have been otherwise.

And his initial defence that it was a "mistake" puts him in the common position of exacerbated his offence by lying about it. Very hard to forge a document by mistake.

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1140169942244954112?s=21

JackW

Sky News - Tobias Ellwood switches from Hancock to Stewart.

ydoethur

MikeSmithson said:

Charles said:

IanB2 said:

Charles said:

MikeSmithson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?

The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.

Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.

So fraud is a lesser offence than speeding in your eyes.

That post illustrates exactly why this sort of case should be dealt with by the courts not politics

It was very much a technical offence, with no intention of personal gain. He was an idiot who could - and should - have handled it differently. He’s been punished for it.

And yes: his specific offence was much less significant than lying to the police and trying to implicate an innocent party in a crime

If there had been no benefit to him, he wouldn't have gone to the trouble. Forging any sort of official document is never a good look.

Poorly phrased - I meant than the expenses had been legitimately incurred. He wasn’t trying to profit from fake claims

Read this. Your whitewashed version is not correct.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/chris-davies-expenses-conservative-mp-southwark-crown-court-brecon-radnorshire-a8924161.html

That is the view of somebody who has made claims some of which have been found to be false as a result of which legal action she was taking against IPSA has been dismissed.

Not saying she's wrong, just that we should not necessarily assume she's a saint either.

And in any case, even in that article there is no dispute that he was entitled to make a claim for all the money, just that he had insufficient funds in one expenses account to do so, which is why he illegally forged the expenses receipts.

A logical solution of course would not have been to buy the damn things. Why did he need so many photos?

Charles

IanB2 said:

Charles said:

IanB2 said:

Charles said:

MikeSmithson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?

The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.

Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.

So fraud is a lesser offence than speeding in your eyes.

That post illustrates exactly why this sort of case should be dealt with by the courts not politics

It was very much a technical offence, with no intention of personal gain. He was an idiot who could - and should - have handled it differently. He’s been punished for it.

And yes: his specific offence was much less significant than lying to the police and trying to implicate an innocent party in a crime

If there had been no benefit to him, he wouldn't have gone to the trouble. Forging any sort of official document is never a good look.

Poorly phrased - I meant than the expenses had been legitimately incurred. He wasn’t trying to profit from fake claims

Well he was better off claiming with the forged receipt than he would have been otherwise.

And his initial defence that it was a "mistake" puts him in the common position of exacerbated his offence by lying about it. Very hard to forge a document by mistake.

Depends whether it was a “mistake to forge it” or a mistaken submission!

HYUFD

India to impose tariffs on 28 US products in response to US refusal to exempt Indian steel and aluminium imports from its tariffs

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-48650505

IanB2

Charles said:

MikeSmithson said:

nichomar said:

Charles said:

MikeSmithson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?

The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.

Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.

So fraud is a lesser offence than speeding in your eyes.

That post illustrates exactly why this sort of case should be dealt with by the courts not politics

It was very much a technical offence, with no intention of personal gain. He was an idiot who could - and should - have handled it differently. He’s been punished for it.

And yes: his specific offence was much less significant than lying to the police and trying to implicate an innocent party in a crime

The recall act specifically references falsifying expense claims as one of the three automatic triggers of a recall, the Peterborough recall was for having been sentenced to a period in jail. Don’t forget the current MP can stand as a conservative if they and their party believe it was a minor offense.

This is a good account of the case and is more much serious than some posters on this thread have suggested.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/chris-davies-expenses-conservative-mp-southwark-crown-court-brecon-radnorshire-a8924161.html

It’s a reasonable summary but states exactly what most posters on the thread have said - he faked an invoice to claim expenses which had been properly incurred but that he had to split between two budgets.

The judge puts his finger on the most disturbing impact - that he chose to forge. Once a cheater always a cheater.

And he changed the nature of the expenditure from photos to furniture, because he had already claimed the maximum from the budget that covers photos. The expenditure may have been incurred, but the excess wasn't proper to claim and should have been paid for personally.

ydoethur

nichomar said:

Charles said:

ydoethur said:

JackW said:

eek said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Don’t you have to fill in the petition at certain fixed locations? If that’s the case in a very rural constituency you may just not have enough people able to do so.

Yes. Six locations. Just over 5,300 signatures required :

https://en.powys.gov.uk/article/7270/Public-notice-of-petition-to-remove-the-MP-for-Brecon-and-Radnorshire-Chris-Davies

It's worthy of note that last year Ian Paisley Jnr was not recalled after the petiton failed by 0.6% :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_North_Antrim_recall_petition

I would have said one reason to be dubious about the success of this petition is that the West of the constituency where the Liberal Democrats are strongest isn't well represented in those six. Most people in the more Liberal areas will look to Llanidloes, Lampeter and Tregaron as their 'urban centres.' And the one that comes closest to it, County Hall in Llandod, is a bugger to get to. You would have to make a conscious decision to go there, parking isn't great and it's hardly an easy walk from the town centre. Presteigne and Crickhowell are quite Tory in outlook, Hay isn't but isn't big enough on its own to make much difference while the surrounding area is quite blue, while Brecon isn't exactly a hotbed of political activity.

Ystradgynlais would seem the key one, but again few people go there who don't live there.

The beauty of PB...

We can discuss the impact of parking arrangements in a Welsh market town on national politics 😂

You can sign by post or proxy so the parking facilities don’t need to be over stretched just those rural post boxes.

What rural post boxes?

MarqueeMark

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1140167875375841280

When did May wave the big stick of No Deal???

IanB2

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1140167875375841280

When did May wave the big stick of No Deal???

Quite a lot, at the beginning. Trouble is, it just encouraged the nutters on her own side to be difficult.

Remember, her cunning plan was to threaten Brexiters with no Brexit and Remainers with no deal. All done publicly.

nico67

A big boost for Rory Stewart .

Defence Minister Tobias Elwood comes out to support him after originally being in the Hancock camp.

ydoethur

IanB2 said:

Charles said:

IanB2 said:

Charles said:

MikeSmithson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?

The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.

Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.

So fraud is a lesser offence than speeding in your eyes.

That post illustrates exactly why this sort of case should be dealt with by the courts not politics

It was very much a technical offence, with no intention of personal gain. He was an idiot who could - and should - have handled it differently. He’s been punished for it.

And yes: his specific offence was much less significant than lying to the police and trying to implicate an innocent party in a crime

If there had been no benefit to him, he wouldn't have gone to the trouble. Forging any sort of official document is never a good look.

Poorly phrased - I meant than the expenses had been legitimately incurred. He wasn’t trying to profit from fake claims

Well he was better off claiming with the forged receipt than he would have been otherwise.

And his initial defence that it was a "mistake" puts him in the common position of exacerbated his offence by lying about it. Very hard to forge a document by mistake.

His argument was that it was a mistake to forge a document, not that he forged a document by mistake.

'Mistake' still seems a rather weak word, in all honesty (no pun intended).

Cicero

The "grandees" who were asking for a coronation seem to have stirred up something of a hornets nest.

While a few of the less intelligent Scottish Tories- Thomson, Clark,- have backed Johnson, Ruth Davidson is going to have a real headache if he won. If she doesn't create real distance between herself and Johnson then the party will lose everything they gained in 2017. Watch for the creation of a separate Scottish Tory party if BoJo gets it.

Its not just London that is shaky.

IanB2

ydoethur said:

MikeSmithson said:

Charles said:

IanB2 said:

Charles said:

MikeSmithson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?

The offence of the sittin.

Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.

So fraud is a lesser offence than speeding in your eyes.

That post illustrates exactly why this sort of case should be dealt with by the courts not politics

It was very much a technical offence, with no intention of personal gain. He was an idiot who could - and should - have handled it differently. He’s been punished for it.

And yes: his specific offence was much less significant than lying to the police and trying to implicate an innocent party in a crime

If there had been no benefit to him, he wouldn't have gone to the trouble. Forging any sort of official document is never a good look.

Poorly phrased - I meant than the expenses had been legitimately incurred. He wasn’t trying to profit from fake claims

Read this. Your whitewashed version is not correct.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/chris-davies-expenses-conservative-mp-southwark-crown-court-brecon-radnorshire-a8924161.html

That is the view of somebody who has made claims some of which have been found to be false as a result of which legal action she was taking against IPSA has been dismissed.

Not saying she's wrong, just that we should not necessarily assume she's a saint either.

And in any case, even in that article there is no dispute that he was entitled to make a claim for all the money, just that he had insufficient funds in one expenses account to do so, which is why he illegally forged the expenses receipts.

A logical solution of course would not have been to buy the damn things. Why did he need so many photos?

If someone (presumably IPSA) has put a limit on the amount of money you can claim for certain categories of expense, you are certainly not "entitled" to make a claim for spending more by falsely reallocating items to other budgets.

HYUFD

According to last night's Yougov the LDs would gain Brecon and Radnor from the Tories but in large part because of the split vote on the right between the Brexit Party and the Tories.

If Boris wins it could therefore be an early test of whether he can win back Brexit Party voters from the Tories

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=21&LAB=21&LIB=19&Brexit=24&Green=2&ChUK=0&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base

Charles

IanB2 said:

Charles said:

MikeSmithson said:

nichomar said:

Charles said:

MikeSmithson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?

The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.

Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.

So fraud is a lesser offence than speeding in your eyes.

That post illustrates exactly why this sort of case should be dealt with by the courts not politics

It was very much a technical offence, with no intention of personal gain. He was an idiot who could - and should - have handled it differently. He’s been punished for it.

And yes: his specific offence was much less significant than lying to the police and trying to implicate an innocent party in a crime

The recall act specifically references falsifying expense claims as one of the three automatic triggers of a recall, the Peterborough recall was for having been sentenced to a period in jail. Don’t forget the current MP can stand as a conservative if they and their party believe it was a minor offense.

This is a good account of the case and is more much serious than some posters on this thread have suggested.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/chris-davies-expenses-conservative-mp-southwark-crown-court-brecon-radnorshire-a8924161.html

It’s a reasonable summary but states exactly what most posters on the thread have said - he faked an invoice to claim expenses which had been properly incurred but that he had to split between two budgets.

The judge puts his finger on the most disturbing impact - that he chose to forge. Once a cheater always a cheater.

And he changed the nature of the expenditure from photos to furniture, because he had already claimed the maximum from the budget that covers photos. The expenditure may have been incurred, but the excess wasn't proper to claim and should have been paid for personally.

I hadn’t picked up on that nuance - I’d understood it was budgets from two different organisations. Clearly that is much more dodgy

Pulpstar

MikeSmithson said:

nichomar said:

Charles said:

ydoethur said:

JackW said:

eek said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Don’t you have to fill in the petition at certain fixed locations? If that’s the case in a very rural constituency you may just not have enough people able to do so.

Yes. Six locations. Just over 5,300 signatures required :

https://en.powys.gov.uk/article/7270/Public-notice-of-petition-to-remove-the-MP-for-Brecon-and-Radnorshire-Chris-Davies

It's worthy of note that last year Ian Paisley Jnr was not recalled after the petiton failed by 0.6% :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_North_Antrim_recall_petition

I would have said one reason to be dubious about the success of this petition is that the West of the constituency where the Liberal Democrats are strongest isn't well represented in those six. Most people in the more Liberal areas will look to Llanidloes, Lampeter and Tregaron as their 'urban centres.' And the one that comes closest to it, County Hall in Llandod, is a bugger to get to. You would have to make a conscious decision to go there, parking isn't great and it's hardly an easy walk from the town centre. Presteigne and Crickhowell are quite Tory in outlook, Hay isn't but isn't big enough on its own to make much difference while the surrounding area is quite blue, while Brecon isn't exactly a hotbed of political activity.

Ystradgynlais would seem the key one, but again few people go there who don't live there.

The beauty of PB...

We can discuss the impact of parking arrangements in a Welsh market town on national politics 😂

You can sign by post or proxy so the parking facilities don’t need to be over stretched just those rural post boxes.

Indeed. 8k+ postal petition packs have been sent out. Just over 5k signatures are required for this to succeed.

Blimey, who's paid for the postage on those

ydoethur

Pulpstar said:

MikeSmithson said:

nichomar said:

Charles said:

ydoethur said:

JackW said:

eek said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Don’t you have to fill in the petition at certain fixed locations? If that’s the case in a very rural constituency you may just not have enough people able to do so.

Yes. Six locations. Just over 5,300 signatures required :

https://en.powys.gov.uk/article/7270/Public-notice-of-petition-to-remove-the-MP-for-Brecon-and-Radnorshire-Chris-Davies

It's worthy of note that last year Ian Paisley Jnr was not recalled after the petiton failed by 0.6% :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_North_Antrim_recall_petition

I would have said one reason to be dubious about the success of this petition is that the West of the constituency where the Liberal Democrats are strongest isn't well represented in those six. Most people in the more Liberal areas will look to Llanidloes, Lampeter and Tregaron as their 'urban centres.' And the one that comes closest to it, County Hall in Llandod, is a bugger to get to. You would have to make a conscious decision to go there, parking isn't great and it's hardly an easy walk from the town centre. Presteigne and Crickhowell are quite Tory in outlook, Hay isn't but isn't big enough on its own to make much difference while the surrounding area is quite blue, while Brecon isn't exactly a hotbed of political activity.

Ystradgynlais would seem the key one, but again few people go there who don't live there.

The beauty of PB...

We can discuss the impact of parking arrangements in a Welsh market town on national politics 😂

You can sign by post or proxy so the parking facilities don’t need to be over stretched just those rural post boxes.

Indeed. 8k+ postal petition packs have been sent out. Just over 5k signatures are required for this to succeed.

Blimey, who's paid for the postage on those

The ratepayers of Powys.

Edit - there is a certain bizarre irony that in trying to get £220 of expenses, he has already cost his constituents many thousands of pounds. Not a great look in terms of economic competence...

IanB2

HYUFD said:

According to last night's Yougov the LDs would gain Brecon and Radnor from the Tories but in large part because of the split vote on the right between the Brexit Party and the Tories.

If Boris wins it could therefore be an early test of whether he can win back Brexit Party voters from the Tories

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=21&LAB=21&LIB=19&Brexit=24&Green=2&ChUK=0&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base

A Tory vote would be a wasted vote.

Jonathan

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1140167875375841280

When did May wave the big stick of No Deal???

“No deal is better than a bad deal.”

IanB2

Pulpstar said:

MikeSmithson said:

nichomar said:

Charles said:

ydoethur said:

JackW said:

eek said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Don’t you have to fill in the petition at certain fixed locations? If that’s the case in a very rural constituency you may just not have enough people able to do so.

Yes. Six locations. Just over 5,300 signatures required :

https://en.powys.gov.uk/article/7270/Public-notice-of-petition-to-remove-the-MP-for-Brecon-and-Radnorshire-Chris-Davies

It's worthy of note that last year Ian Paisley Jnr was not recalled after the petiton failed by 0.6% :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_North_Antrim_recall_petition

I would have said one reason to be dubious about the success of this petition is that the West of the constituency where the Liberal Democrats are strongest isn't well represented in those six. Most people in the more Liberal areas will look to Llanidloes, Lampeter and Tregaron as their 'urban centres.' And the one that comes closest to it, County Hall in Llandod, is a bugger to get to. You would have to make a conscious decision to go there, parking isn't great and it's hardly an easy walk from the town centre. Presteigne and Crickhowell are quite Tory in outlook, Hay isn't but isn't big enough on its own to make much difference while the surrounding area is quite blue, while Brecon isn't exactly a hotbed of political activity.

Ystradgynlais would seem the key one, but again few people go there who don't live there.

The beauty of PB...

We can discuss the impact of parking arrangements in a Welsh market town on national politics 😂

You can sign by post or proxy so the parking facilities don’t need to be over stretched just those rural post boxes.

Indeed. 8k+ postal petition packs have been sent out. Just over 5k signatures are required for this to succeed.

Blimey, who's paid for the postage on those

The Council pays and the government covers the cost, as for any (national) election related expenditure.

rottenborough

ydoethur said:

Pulpstar said:

MikeSmithson said:

nichomar said:

Charles said:

ydoethur said:

JackW said:

eek said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Don’t you have to fill in the petition at certain fixed locations? If that’s the case in a very rural constituency you may just not have enough people able to do so.

Yes. Six locations. Just over 5,300 signatures required :

https://en.powys.gov.uk/article/7270/Public-notice-of-petition-to-remove-the-MP-for-Brecon-and-Radnorshire-Chris-Davies

It's worthy of note that last year Ian Paisley Jnr was not recalled after the petiton failed by 0.6% :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_North_Antrim_recall_petition

snip

Ystradgynlais would seem the key one, but again few people go there who don't live there.

The beauty of PB...

We can discuss the impact of parking arrangements in a Welsh market town on national politics 😂

You can sign by post or proxy so the parking facilities don’t need to be over stretched just those rural post boxes.

Indeed. 8k+ postal petition packs have been sent out. Just over 5k signatures are required for this to succeed.

Blimey, who's paid for the postage on those

The ratepayers of Powys.

Edit - there is a certain bizarre irony that in trying to get £220 of expenses, he has already cost his constituents many thousands of pounds. Not a great look in terms of economic competence...

8K postal packs? Surely he's toast then.

ydoethur

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

Pulpstar said:

MikeSmithson said:

nichomar said:

Charles said:

ydoethur said:

JackW said:

eek said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Don’t you have to fill in the petition at certain fixed locations? If that’s the case in a very rural constituency you may just not have enough people able to do so.

Yes. Six locations. Just over 5,300 signatures required :

https://en.powys.gov.uk/article/7270/Public-notice-of-petition-to-remove-the-MP-for-Brecon-and-Radnorshire-Chris-Davies

It's worthy of note that last year Ian Paisley Jnr was not recalled after the petiton failed by 0.6% :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_North_Antrim_recall_petition

snip

Ystradgynlais would seem the key one, but again few people go there who don't live there.

The beauty of PB...

We can discuss the impact of parking arrangements in a Welsh market town on national politics 😂

You can sign by post or proxy so the parking facilities don’t need to be over stretched just those rural post boxes.

Indeed. 8k+ postal petition packs have been sent out. Just over 5k signatures are required for this to succeed.

Blimey, who's paid for the postage on those

The ratepayers of Powys.

Edit - there is a certain bizarre irony that in trying to get £220 of expenses, he has already cost his constituents many thousands of pounds. Not a great look in terms of economic competence...

8K postal packs? Surely he's toast then.

I think the government refunds eventually. But as Powys has very little money it may have to borrow and incur penalties to meet the cost.

HYUFD

Cicero said:

The "grandees" who were asking for a coronation seem to have stirred up something of a hornets nest.

While a few of the less intelligent Scottish Tories- Thomson, Clark,- have backed Johnson, Ruth Davidson is going to have a real headache if he won. If she doesn't create real distance between herself and Johnson then the party will lose everything they gained in 2017. Watch for the creation of a separate Scottish Tory party if BoJo gets it.

Its not just London that is shaky.

Comres has a Boris led Tories on 28% in Scotland, the same as 2017 as the Brexit Party vote goes back to the Tories north of the border in large part.

Though Rory Stewart is the only Tory candidate who does better in Scotland than he does across the UK, a Stewart led Tory Party would be on 21% in Scotland compared to 19% across the UK

https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/comres-daily-telegraph-poll-june-2019/

YBarddCwsc

The Lib Dems in mid Wales, the exhibits:

Mick Bates ex-AM -- criminal conviction for violently assaulting a paramedic. The court heard that Mr Bates was "abusive and aggressive. There was a strong smell of intoxicants and a clear reluctance to co-operate. It was decided to carry him to the ambulance in a wheelchair but when it was brought the AM refused to stand, he said. "We found it was safer to take him down on his buttocks one step at a time."

Lembit Opik ex-MP -- Lembit claimed £23,083 in second home allowances out of public funds, including various items of furniture and a £40 summons charge for non-payment of Council Tax. He tried to claim £2,499 for a plasma screen television. He was also a public laughing-stock.

Really, the Welsh LibDem hypocrisy is hard to take.

Icarus

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?

Last night at the east Midland Hustings - it seemed to be assumed that there would be a by-election in Brecon. Hustings was, IMO, a close points win for Ed Davey. On reflection think Jo Swinson might be better placed to help attract new Lib Dem voters. May change my mind when actually get to vote!