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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    edited June 2019
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    The "grandees" who were asking for a coronation seem to have stirred up something of a hornets nest.

    While a few of the less intelligent Scottish Tories- Thomson, Clark,- have backed Johnson, Ruth Davidson is going to have a real headache if he won. haky.

    A Boris lead in the opinion polls would go the way of the Ullapool-Inverness ferry.

    Ty
    There is a ridiculous level of focus on hypothetical match-ups.

    Davidson's worry isn't about the first poll under the new leader. It's about the risk that the new leader says months. And there's one candidate who is MUCH more likely to do that than the others.
    No it is a fact that Boris gets the Tories to a higher voteshare in Scotland than any other Tory leadership candidate.

    I know it does not fit diehard Remainers whinges about how Boris is less popular than Edward IInd in Scotland but tough those are the facts.


    The average 2017 Scottish Tory was not some young urban pro independence social liberal but actually a pensioner living in a rural area or market town and a social conservative and very likely a Leave voter and many of them are now voting Brexit Party.

    So Boris boosts the Tories vote in Scotlsnd just as he does in the rest of the UK

    How can it be a "fact" when it hasn't been tested, and never will, at least in this universe?
    We know the Tories were 4th in the European Parliament elections in Scotland behind the SNP, the Brexit Party and the LDs so a generic Tory will not do, Boris is the Tories' best hope in Scotland (though Rory Stewart polls better in Scotland than in England but still does not get as high a Scottish Tory voteshare as Boris does)
    The conclusion is your opinion, not a fact at all.
    No it is a fact based on the polling and the rise of the Brexit Party in Scotland, just you dislike the facts
    Your comment exemplifies the problem with so many of your posts on here. There is no such thing as a "fact based on polling".

    Polling is merely an indication, subject to lots of caveats and a significant degree of error. Polling about leaders who aren't even in post is even more flaky, and can never be proven right or wrong since we will never get to compare different leaders' performances in the same election. How a leader performs in office can be very different from what people may be expecting, even if they have heard of the person to begin with.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited June 2019
    isam said:

    OllyT said:

    isam said:

    You’d think the 10% threshold should be reached. Two recalls in a calendar year would suggest this might become a thing.

    Given the precedent of their refusal to accept the referendum result, if The Brexit Party ever won a seat I’d expect 10% of the constituents to instantly demand a recall every time
    Given the antics of UKIP MEPs there is likely to be plenty of scope for recall petitions.
    There would be a lot of recall petitions on very spurious grounds if any Brexit Party MPs were elected. We might even discover that by elections are only ‘advisory’
    You do realise petitions can only be raised in specific circumstances - prison sentences, expenses fraud and getting barred from the HoC - are you taking it as a given that Brexit party mps will do all those things (and "be made scapegoats of by the establishment?")
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    isam said:

    You’d think the 10% threshold should be reached. Two recalls in a calendar year would suggest this might become a thing.

    Given the precedent of their refusal to accept the referendum result, if The Brexit Party ever won a seat I’d expect 10% of the constituents to instantly demand a recall every time
    That sort of silliness is why you need a trigger event to get a recall in the form of conviction or suspension etc.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Rory Stewart on Marr now
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    isam said:

    OllyT said:

    isam said:

    You’d think the 10% threshold should be reached. Two recalls in a calendar year would suggest this might become a thing.

    Given the precedent of their refusal to accept the referendum result, if The Brexit Party ever won a seat I’d expect 10% of the constituents to instantly demand a recall every time
    Given the antics of UKIP MEPs there is likely to be plenty of scope for recall petitions.
    There would be a lot of recall petitions on very spurious grounds if any Brexit Party MPs were elected. We might even discover that by elections are only ‘advisory’
    You do not understand how recall petitions are triggered.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    isam said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    That's depressing. But he has less time so there'll be less faffing about.
    It’s the right thing to do surely? May just didn’t have the charisma to sell a deal or the cojones to leave on no deal if MPs refused to consent to us leaving with a deal
    Its depressing because it's too late to work and I bet he knows that, that's why it's all nonsense and the plan is to have a GE.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Sean_F said:

    nichomar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Trump skewering Khan on violence again and Khan still has no fucking clue. Honestly if the lib Dems put up a candidate that isn't Chuka I'll vote for them. I'll never vote for the racist, Bailey.

    Homicide is sharply down in London this year. But don’t let facts get in your way.
    London not even in top 50 of murder cities, US have four, maybe he should look closer to home.
    Even the US is not that murderous.

    OTOH, the murder rates in Latin America and the Caribbean are horrendous.
    St Louis 4th 65/100,000 then also Baltimore, New Orleans and Detroit feature.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    isam said:

    Re televised debates. If I were a politician from a rival party, I’d be a bit put out that the Conservatives are getting three hours of prime time exposure for free. It must give whoever becomes leader an edge if there were an election this year.

    Doesn't that sort of assume that they cover themselves in glory during the debate? I would have thought that it could have the exact opposite effect . Isn't that precisely why Johnson is doing his level best to avoid being questioned or scrutinised?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    MaxPB said:

    Trump skewering Khan on violence again and Khan still has no fucking clue. Honestly if the lib Dems put up a candidate that isn't Chuka I'll vote for them. I'll never vote for the racist, Bailey.

    Yes, it's terrific - rather touching even - that the American President, with all that he has on his plate, is so concerned about the crime rate in our capital city. Demonstrates remarkable bandwidth.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,084
    edited June 2019

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    Re televised debates. If I were a politician from a rival party, I’d be a bit put out that the Conservatives are getting three hours of prime time exposure for free. It must give whoever becomes leader an edge if there were an election this year.

    Ed Davey has already made a formal complaint
    When is the televised debate for the Lib Dem leadership?
    Well quite... Why is the state funded media wasting money promoting the UK's fourth party, when it could be dealing with the real issues being debated by the second party...?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    IanB2 said:



    You might be right - the Indy story Mike linked isn't clear but looking at the Guardian's report, it suggests he could have claimed the items under either the "start up" office budget (which he had all used) or the normal routine office costs budget. I'd think that framed photos for the wall were more "start up" than ongoing costs, but if the Guardian is right that they could be considered routine office costs, then he did have that option.

    If he had been sensible he could have asked for two invoices in the first place. But it sounds like his expenses were in a horrendous mess and he had already had his IPSA card suspended until he sorted it out.

    Is there an IPSA card? Wasn't one in my day. He clearly got into a tangle and thought he could sort it out without proper reflection and/or advice. I'm not sure it's a hanging offence - I don't think I'd sign the recall petition myself. It'd be tempting as a way of maybe reducing the Government majority, but one shouldn't pick on individuals in order to achieve some wider objective.
    Conviction of a crime in office makes it simple for me. Not that having had a conviction in the past should prevent someone from being elected, but in office is different. And we already make it automatic if given 12 months.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    nichomar said:

    Sean_F said:

    nichomar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Trump skewering Khan on violence again and Khan still has no fucking clue. Honestly if the lib Dems put up a candidate that isn't Chuka I'll vote for them. I'll never vote for the racist, Bailey.

    Homicide is sharply down in London this year. But don’t let facts get in your way.
    London not even in top 50 of murder cities, US have four, maybe he should look closer to home.
    Even the US is not that murderous.

    OTOH, the murder rates in Latin America and the Caribbean are horrendous.
    St Louis 4th 65/100,000 then also Baltimore, New Orleans and Detroit feature.
    Those are truly all Trump voting cities...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    I reckon she started with no deal as an option, but changed tack when she was fully briefed on the implications, both economic and specifically political (for the union). You could see the change in her attitude during the spring. If the ST is right she is now voting for Rory and may join the anti-no-dealers in Parliament.
    I doubt that she will rebel against the new PM’s line
    She should if its Boris.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    isam said:

    OllyT said:

    isam said:

    You’d think the 10% threshold should be reached. Two recalls in a calendar year would suggest this might become a thing.

    Given the precedent of their refusal to accept the referendum result, if The Brexit Party ever won a seat I’d expect 10% of the constituents to instantly demand a recall every time
    Given the antics of UKIP MEPs there is likely to be plenty of scope for recall petitions.
    There would be a lot of recall petitions on very spurious grounds if any Brexit Party MPs were elected. We might even discover that by elections are only ‘advisory’
    Your sense of victimhood knows no bounds
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Cicero said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    Re televised debates. If I were a politician from a rival party, I’d be a bit put out that the Conservatives are getting three hours of prime time exposure for free. It must give whoever becomes leader an edge if there were an election this year.

    Ed Davey has already made a formal complaint
    When is the televised debate for the Lib Dem leadership?
    Well quite... Why is the state funded media wasting money promoting the UK's fourth party, when it could be dealing with the real issues being debated by the second party...?
    Cicero said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    Re televised debates. If I were a politician from a rival party, I’d be a bit put out that the Conservatives are getting three hours of prime time exposure for free. It must give whoever becomes leader an edge if there were an election this year.

    Ed Davey has already made a formal complaint
    When is the televised debate for the Lib Dem leadership?
    Well quite... Why is the state funded media wasting money promoting the UK's fourth party, when it could be dealing with the real issues being debated by the second party...?
    Well it would be a little difficult to make it out as a battle to the death and boring to show a political party united on the main issues.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    IanB2 said:



    You might be right - the Indy story Mike linked isn't clear but looking at the Guardian's report, it suggests he could have claimed the items under either the "start up" office budget (which he had all used) or the normal routine office costs budget. I'd think that framed photos for the wall were more "start up" than ongoing costs, but if the Guardian is right that they could be considered routine office costs, then he did have that option.

    If he had been sensible he could have asked for two invoices in the first place. But it sounds like his expenses were in a horrendous mess and he had already had his IPSA card suspended until he sorted it out.

    Is there an IPSA card? Wasn't one in my day. He clearly got into a tangle and thought he could sort it out without proper reflection and/or advice. I'm not sure it's a hanging offence - I don't think I'd sign the recall petition myself. It'd be tempting as a way of maybe reducing the Government majority, but one shouldn't pick on individuals in order to achieve some wider objective.
    http://generalelection.parliamentarystandards.org.uk/newtoparliament/My Salary Expenses/Payment Card Terms.pdf
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Rory still pushing Citizens' Assemblies to sort out Brexit on Marr
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited June 2019
    OllyT said:



    Doesn't that sort of assume that they cover themselves in glory during the debate? I would have thought that it could have the exact opposite effect. Isn't that precisely why Johnson is doing his level best to avoid being questioned or scrutinised?

    I am not a fan of Johnson, but it is a general rule of politics that the frontrunner never wants a televised debate (see Blair or Cameron in their time).

    If you are the frontrunner, why risk a debate?

    However, Johnson would probably do just fine in a televised debate. He is pretty fluent and glib and used to TV cameras, which is mainly what is needed.

    A forensic interview would be another matter -- but no politician normally allows themselves to be placed in such a vulnerable spot.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Rory has lined himself up as the ultimate 'I told you so' candidate for when Boris fails to deliver Brexit.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    The "grandees" who were asking for a coronation seem to have stirred up something of a hornets nest.

    While a few of the less intelligent Scottish Tories- Thomson, Clark,- have backed Johnson, Ruth Davidson is going to have a real headache if he won. haky.

    A Boris lead in the opinion polls would go the way of the Ullapool-Inverness ferry.

    Ty
    There is a ridiculous level of focus on hypothetical match-ups.

    Davidson's worry isn't about the first poll under the new leader. It's about the risk that the new leader says months. And there's one candidate who is MUCH more likely to do that than the others.
    No it is a fact that Boris gets the Tories to a higher voteshare in Scotland than any other Tory leadership candidate.

    I know it does not fit diehard Remainers whinges about how Boris is less popular than Edward IInd in Scotland but tough those are the facts.


    The average 2017 Scottish Tory was not some young urban pro independence social liberal but actually a pensioner living in a rural area or market town and a social conservative and very likely a Leave voter and many of them are now voting Brexit Party.

    So Boris boosts the Tories vote in Scotlsnd just as he does in the rest of the UK

    How can it be a "fact" when it hasn't been tested, and never will, at least in this universe?
    We know the Tories were 4th in the European Parliament elections in Scotland behind the SNP, the Brexit Party and the LDs so a generic Tory will not do, Boris is the Tories' best hope in Scotland (though Rory Stewart polls better in Scotland than in England but still does not get as high a Scottish Tory voteshare as Boris does)
    The conclusion is your opinion, not a fact at all.
    No it is a fact based on the polling and the rise of the Brexit Party in Scotland, just you dislike the facts
    How a leader performs in office can be very different from what people may be expecting, even if they have heard of the person to begin with.
    Indeed, he gives no credence to the idea views on people can change.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    The "grandees" who were asking for a coronation seem to have stirred up something of a hornets nest.

    While a few of the less intelligent Scottish Tories- Thomson, Clark,- have backed Johnson, Ruth Davidson is going to have a real headache if he won. haky.

    A Boris lead in the opinion polls would go the way of the Ullapool-Inverness ferry.

    Ty
    There is a ridiculous level of focus on hypothetical match-ups.

    Davidson's worry isn't about the s.
    No it is a fact that Boris gets the Tories to a higher voteshare in Scotland than any other Tory leadership candidate.

    I know it does not fit diehard Remainers whinges about how Boris is less popular than Edward IInd in Scotland but tough those are the facts.


    The average 2017 Scottish Tory was not some young urban pro independence social liberal but actually a pensioner living in a rural area or market town and a social conservative and very likely a Leave voter and many of them are now voting Brexit Party.

    So Boris boosts the Tories vote in Scotlsnd just as he does in the rest of the UK

    How can it be a "fact" when it hasn't been tested, and never will, at least in this universe?
    We know the Tories were 4th in the European Parliament elections in Scotland behind the SNP, the Brexit Party and the LDs so a generic Tory will not do, Boris is is does)
    The conclusion is your opinion, not a fact at all.
    No it is a fact based on the polling and the rise of the Brexit Party in Scotland, just you dislike the facts
    Your comment exemplifies the problem with so many of your posts on here. There is no such thing as a "fact based on polling".

    Polling is merely an indication, subject to lots of caveats and a significant degree of error. Polling about leaders who aren't even in post is even more flaky, and can never be proven right or wrong since we will never get to compare different leaders' performances in the same election. How a leader performs in office can be very different from what people may be expecting, even if they have heard of the person to begin with.
    What it does show though is that the argument of some on here that the Tories face guaranteed disaster in Scotland under Boris is complete rubbish and I will continue to make that point
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    OllyT said:



    Doesn't that sort of assume that they cover themselves in glory during the debate? I would have thought that it could have the exact opposite effect. Isn't that precisely why Johnson is doing his level best to avoid being questioned or scrutinised?

    I am not a fan of Johnston, but it is a general rule of politics that the frontrunner never wants a televised debate (see Blair or Cameron in their time).

    If you are the frontrunner, why risk a debate?

    Johnston would probably do just fine in a televised debate. He is pretty fluent and glib and used to TV cameras, which is mainly what is needed.

    A forensic interview would be another matter -- but no politician normally allows themselves to be placed in such a vulnerable spot.
    I think we both know it's a bit more than that in Johnson's case.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    edited June 2019
    Rory will not serve under Boris he says on Marr.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    OllyT said:



    Doesn't that sort of assume that they cover themselves in glory during the debate? I would have thought that it could have the exact opposite effect. Isn't that precisely why Johnson is doing his level best to avoid being questioned or scrutinised?

    I am not a fan of Johnston, but it is a general rule of politics that the frontrunner never wants a televised debate (see Blair or Cameron in their time).

    If you are the frontrunner, why risk a debate?

    Johnston would probably do just fine in a televised debate. He is pretty fluent and glib and used to TV cameras, which is mainly what is needed.

    A forensic interview would be another matter -- but no politician normally allows themselves to be placed in such a vulnerable spot.
    Agreed, I dont see that Boris should be too worried. If any get too heavy on him he can play the ' we should attack Corbyn not each other card'. Hes not a bad performer, most of them have vague plans like his, and because he is better liked he can take hits the others cannot.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    HYUFD said:

    Rory still pushing Citizens' Assemblies to sort out Brexit on Marr

    Yes, hes not always got good ideas
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    MaxPB said:

    Trump skewering Khan on violence again and Khan still has no fucking clue. Honestly if the lib Dems put up a candidate that isn't Chuka I'll vote for them. I'll never vote for the racist, Bailey.

    Homicide is sharply down in London this year. But don’t let facts get in your way.
    Really? There’s a lot of press attention on it so assumed it was up (presumably they are slicing and dicing [sick] to focus on teenage knife killings or something]

    Do you have a link?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019
    Burnham next up on Marr now on the Northern Powerhouse and HS2
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Rory will not serve under Boris he says on Marr.

    Well, hes got ex-Cabinet Minister onto his CV at least, if very briefly.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IanB2 said:

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    I reckon she started with no deal as an option, but changed tack when she was fully briefed on the implications, both economic and specifically political (for the union). You could see the change in her attitude during the spring. If the ST is right she is now voting for Rory and may join the anti-no-dealers in Parliament.
    I doubt that she will rebel against the new PM’s line
    The story is in today's MoS (not the ST) and begins with the line "Mrs May has suggested..." she may join Hammond and Rudd in voting to block no deal. When and where she made the suggestion isn't mentioned.
    Probably to the ERG to convince them to back her deal...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    Rory has lined himself up as the ultimate 'I told you so' candidate for when Boris fails to deliver Brexit.

    Rory is only prepared to deliver Brexit with May's Deal, Boris will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal that is the difference between them
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    JackW said:

    IanB2 said:

    LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

    In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

    Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?


    Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.
    So fraud is a lesser offence than speeding in your eyes.
    He submitted a false invoice so he could claim £220 extra expenses. He had legitimate expenses of £700 but only £480 left in the budget. So created a receipt of £450 for that, then another one of £250 so he could claim the rest elsewhere. For this he was fined £1500 and ordered to do 50 hours community work. That seems about fair.

    It was incredibly stupid and very wrong, but is rather different from breaking the law for no obvious reason, giving false evidence in a criminal matter and repeatedly lying about and racially abusing a judge.
    Both come down to the standards of honesty and integrity we should expect from those who set the rules for the rest of us, though.

    Do we think someone caught doing the same with their company expenses would keep their job?
    Company expenses would surely show flexibility in such a case? That is, you would submit the receipt, and then the company would decide how much and from where to reimburse you.

    Let me ask you another question. Should David Laws have been recalled and lost his seat over his expenses claims? Because the offences were basically very similar - manipulation of documents to hide the true nature of the claim. If your answer is no, are double standards applying?

    (I know he lost his seat anyway.)
    Not if you are writing your own receipts, you would be sacked. May be ok if you submitted and said original receipt was lost.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:



    Doesn't that sort of assume that they cover themselves in glory during the debate? I would have thought that it could have the exact opposite effect. Isn't that precisely why Johnson is doing his level best to avoid being questioned or scrutinised?

    I am not a fan of Johnston, but it is a general rule of politics that the frontrunner never wants a televised debate (see Blair or Cameron in their time).

    If you are the frontrunner, why risk a debate?

    Johnston would probably do just fine in a televised debate. He is pretty fluent and glib and used to TV cameras, which is mainly what is needed.

    A forensic interview would be another matter -- but no politician normally allows themselves to be placed in such a vulnerable spot.
    I think we both know it's a bit more than that in Johnson's case.
    There is a risk of a gaffe -- sure. That is why he doesn't want a debate.

    But, e.g., I think in terms of articulating an argument, or defending a position, he is better than the awkwardness and inarticulacy of May.

    I suspect if there is a debate between Johnson, Corbyn and (say) Davey -- Johnson would probably win.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rory still pushing Citizens' Assemblies to sort out Brexit on Marr

    Yes, hes not always got good ideas
    I can't think how else you might bring pressure to bear on MPs to pass the Withdrawal Agreement.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. HYUFD, Citizens Assemblies sound like a steaming pile of horse manure, lacking the electoral mandate of a referendum *and* the delegated responsibility of a Parliament.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    HYUFD said:

    Rory has lined himself up as the ultimate 'I told you so' candidate for when Boris fails to deliver Brexit.

    Rory is only prepared to deliver Brexit with May's Deal, Boris will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal that is the difference between them
    As Rory keeps saying Boris can't deliver No Deal. Parliament wont let him. He will have to win a majority at a GE to do it.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    IanB2 said:



    You might be right - the Indy story Mike linked isn't clear but looking at the Guardian's report, it suggests he could have claimed the items under either the "start up" office budget (which he had all used) or the normal routine office costs budget. I'd think that framed photos for the wall were more "start up" than ongoing costs, but if the Guardian is right that they could be considered routine office costs, then he did have that option.

    If he had been sensible he could have asked for two invoices in the first place. But it sounds like his expenses were in a horrendous mess and he had already had his IPSA card suspended until he sorted it out.

    Is there an IPSA card? Wasn't one in my day. He clearly got into a tangle and thought he could sort it out without proper reflection and/or advice. I'm not sure it's a hanging offence - I don't think I'd sign the recall petition myself. It'd be tempting as a way of maybe reducing the Government majority, but one shouldn't pick on individuals in order to achieve some wider objective.
    Corbynite opposes wealth redistribution
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    IanB2 said:



    You might be right - the Indy story Mike linked isn't clear but looking at the Guardian's report, it suggests he could have claimed the items under either the "start up" office budget (which he had all used) or the normal routine office costs budget. I'd think that framed photos for the wall were more "start up" than ongoing costs, but if the Guardian is right that they could be considered routine office costs, then he did have that option.

    If he had been sensible he could have asked for two invoices in the first place. But it sounds like his expenses were in a horrendous mess and he had already had his IPSA card suspended until he sorted it out.

    Is there an IPSA card? Wasn't one in my day. He clearly got into a tangle and thought he could sort it out without proper reflection and/or advice. I'm not sure it's a hanging offence - I don't think I'd sign the recall petition myself. It'd be tempting as a way of maybe reducing the Government majority, but one shouldn't pick on individuals in order to achieve some wider objective.
    If not a hanging offence, it is clearly wrong.

    Voters without expense accounts will surely feel that if the Sainsbury's checkout overcharges on tomato soup, they would speak to customer services, not shoplift a can of tuna to even things out.

    Voters with expense accounts can check their own employer's policy and probably this would be a sacking offence in any reasonably large organisation.

    I'd agree the IPSA system is not fit for purpose, but perhaps a human could have guided him to a satisfactory resolution.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited June 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, compare how many know who Boris is to how many know who Rory is. That recognition has an effect. Boris might still be ahead, even if Rory were better known, but we don't know either way.

    I think Stewart is the only candidate who could challenge Boris for appeal in Scotland yes and indeed Rory already polls better in Scotland than in England.

    What is clear however is Hunt does terribly in Scotland, the Foreign Secretary leading the Tories to just 19%, even Gove and Raab do better in Scotland than Hunt does (albeit the former helped by his Scottish roots)
    Some Scots are racist?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2019
    OllyT said:

    isam said:

    OllyT said:

    isam said:

    You’d think the 10% threshold should be reached. Two recalls in a calendar year would suggest this might become a thing.

    Given the precedent of their refusal to accept the referendum result, if The Brexit Party ever won a seat I’d expect 10% of the constituents to instantly demand a recall every time
    Given the antics of UKIP MEPs there is likely to be plenty of scope for recall petitions.
    There would be a lot of recall petitions on very spurious grounds if any Brexit Party MPs were elected. We might even discover that by elections are only ‘advisory’
    Your sense of victimhood knows no bounds
    Stop picking on me
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited June 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Rory has lined himself up as the ultimate 'I told you so' candidate for when Boris fails to deliver Brexit.

    Rory is only prepared to deliver Brexit with May's Deal, Boris will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal that is the difference between them
    I doubt this very much. Boris is a strategising chameleon, not an ideologue. The current phase of strategy simply requires him to say that he so very, passionately believes in Brexit with a deal or without a deal, that's all.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    John Pienaar interviewing Home Office minister Victoria Atkins backing Javid.

    Pienaar "Sajid has made a lot of being the son of a Pakistani bus driver. Would his father be able to get into this country under this Conservative government?"

    Atkins "Well there are channels where people can come in"

    Pienaar "What exactly are the channels for a Pakistani bus driver?"

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, compare how many know who Boris is to how many know who Rory is. That recognition has an effect. Boris might still be ahead, even if Rory were better known, but we don't know either way.

    I think Stewart is the only candidate who could challenge Boris for appeal in Scotland yes and indeed Rory already polls better in Scotland than in England.

    What is clear however is Hunt does terribly in Scotland, the Foreign Secretary leading the Tories to just 19%, even Gove and Raab do better in Scotland than Hunt does (albeit the former helped by his Scottish roots)
    Scots are racist?
    No but they like their own e.g. Brown won a landslide in Scotland in 2010 despite losing power nationally
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Trump skewering Khan on violence again and Khan still has no fucking clue. Honestly if the lib Dems put up a candidate that isn't Chuka I'll vote for them. I'll never vote for the racist, Bailey.

    Homicide is sharply down in London this year. But don’t let facts get in your way.
    Really? There’s a lot of press attention on it so assumed it was up (presumably they are slicing and dicing [sick] to focus on teenage knife killings or something]

    Do you have a link?
    The last two sentences of this link:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-48646922
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    Mr. HYUFD, Citizens Assemblies sound like a steaming pile of horse manure, lacking the electoral mandate of a referendum *and* the delegated responsibility of a Parliament.

    Yes they seem to be Rory's biggest new idea, other than that he is largely continuity May policy and Brexit wise, hence why May voted for him last week
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    OllyT said:

    isam said:

    You’d think the 10% threshold should be reached. Two recalls in a calendar year would suggest this might become a thing.

    Given the precedent of their refusal to accept the referendum result, if The Brexit Party ever won a seat I’d expect 10% of the constituents to instantly demand a recall every time
    Given the antics of UKIP MEPs there is likely to be plenty of scope for recall petitions.
    There would be a lot of recall petitions on very spurious grounds if any Brexit Party MPs were elected. We might even discover that by elections are only ‘advisory’
    You do not understand how recall petitions are triggered.
    Ishmael_Z said:

    isam said:

    OllyT said:

    isam said:

    You’d think the 10% threshold should be reached. Two recalls in a calendar year would suggest this might become a thing.

    Given the precedent of their refusal to accept the referendum result, if The Brexit Party ever won a seat I’d expect 10% of the constituents to instantly demand a recall every time
    Given the antics of UKIP MEPs there is likely to be plenty of scope for recall petitions.
    There would be a lot of recall petitions on very spurious grounds if any Brexit Party MPs were elected. We might even discover that by elections are only ‘advisory’
    You do realise petitions can only be raised in specific circumstances - prison sentences, expenses fraud and getting barred from the HoC - are you taking it as a given that Brexit party mps will do all those things (and "be made scapegoats of by the establishment?")
    Anything’s possible, they’ll find a way. Who would have thought that we’d be told by MPs that the referendum was ‘only advisory’ and we still wouldn’t have left in June 2019 after voting to do so three years earlier? Or that the default of No Deal would be voted down by MPs who want a second go at it?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, compare how many know who Boris is to how many know who Rory is. That recognition has an effect. Boris might still be ahead, even if Rory were better known, but we don't know either way.

    I think Stewart is the only candidate who could challenge Boris for appeal in Scotland yes and indeed Rory already polls better in Scotland than in England.

    What is clear however is Hunt does terribly in Scotland, the Foreign Secretary leading the Tories to just 19%, even Gove and Raab do better in Scotland than Hunt does (albeit the former helped by his Scottish roots)
    Scots are racist?
    No but they like their own e.g. Brown won a landslide in Scotland in 2010 despite losing power nationally
    They are not racist... but they prefer someone of their own race?

    Umm...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    HYUFD said:

    Rory has lined himself up as the ultimate 'I told you so' candidate for when Boris fails to deliver Brexit.

    Rory is only prepared to deliver Brexit with May's Deal, Boris will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal that is the difference between them
    As Rory keeps saying Boris can't deliver No Deal. Parliament wont let him. He will have to win a majority at a GE to do it.
    The House of Commons voted against trying to bring legislation to block No Deal last week
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Trump skewering Khan on violence again and Khan still has no fucking clue. Honestly if the lib Dems put up a candidate that isn't Chuka I'll vote for them. I'll never vote for the racist, Bailey.

    Homicide is sharply down in London this year. But don’t let facts get in your way.
    Really? There’s a lot of press attention on it so assumed it was up (presumably they are slicing and dicing [sick] to focus on teenage knife killings or something]

    Do you have a link?
    The last two sentences of this link:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-48646922
    Thanks. I’m disappointed you didn’t rise to my pun
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rory still pushing Citizens' Assemblies to sort out Brexit on Marr

    Yes, hes not always got good ideas
    I can't think how else you might bring pressure to bear on MPs to pass the Withdrawal Agreement.
    I dont think it's possible to do so. They've mentally moved on from it.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Trump skewering Khan on violence again and Khan still has no fucking clue. Honestly if the lib Dems put up a candidate that isn't Chuka I'll vote for them. I'll never vote for the racist, Bailey.

    Homicide is sharply down in London this year. But don’t let facts get in your way.
    Really? There’s a lot of press attention on it so assumed it was up (presumably they are slicing and dicing [sick] to focus on teenage knife killings or something]

    Do you have a link?
    The last two sentences of this link:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-48646922
    It’s down this year from a ten year high in 2018

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/dec/12/london-homicides-now-highest-in-a-year-for-a-decade
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    HYUFD said:

    Rory has lined himself up as the ultimate 'I told you so' candidate for when Boris fails to deliver Brexit.

    Rory is only prepared to deliver Brexit with May's Deal, Boris will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal that is the difference between them
    I doubt this very much. Boris is a strategising chameleon, not an ideologue. The current phase of strategy simply requires him to say that he so very, passionately believes in Brexit with a deal or without a deal, that's all.
    Boris does want a Deal yes and ideally a renegotiated one with no backstop or a time limited backstop but if not he will go to No Deal
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rory has lined himself up as the ultimate 'I told you so' candidate for when Boris fails to deliver Brexit.

    Rory is only prepared to deliver Brexit with May's Deal, Boris will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal that is the difference between them
    As Rory keeps saying Boris can't deliver No Deal. Parliament wont let him. He will have to win a majority at a GE to do it.
    The House of Commons voted against trying to bring legislation to block No Deal last week
    I'll save this blithe comment for when they try again later.
  • How is Boris going to go down in God-fearing rural Wales?

    How did Trump go down in God-fearing country?
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    edited June 2019
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rory has lined himself up as the ultimate 'I told you so' candidate for when Boris fails to deliver Brexit.

    Rory is only prepared to deliver Brexit with May's Deal, Boris will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal that is the difference between them
    As Rory keeps saying Boris can't deliver No Deal. Parliament wont let him. He will have to win a majority at a GE to do it.
    The House of Commons voted against trying to bring legislation to block No Deal last week
    That number is fluid and it's happened before in this parliament. If Boris dumps anti no-dealers such as Gauke and Hammond of the cabinet unceremoniously I suspect they'll vote against the government like Greening did. Wednesday's vote only failed because the motion was in the name of Corbyn and gave the Labour Party the power to control the timetable instead of Letwin etc.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, Citizens Assemblies sound like a steaming pile of horse manure, lacking the electoral mandate of a referendum *and* the delegated responsibility of a Parliament.

    Yes they seem to be Rory's biggest new idea, other than that he is largely continuity May policy and Brexit wise, hence why May voted for him last week
    @Morris_Dancer the philosophical argument is that MPs are failing in their job to represent the people’s interests and therefore you need to have a group of non political career minded people

    My guess is that a Citizen’s Assembly would pass the deal
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    isam said:

    isam said:

    OllyT said:

    isam said:

    You’d think the 10% threshold should be reached. Two recalls in a calendar year would suggest this might become a thing.

    Given the precedent of their refusal to accept the referendum result, if The Brexit Party ever won a seat I’d expect 10% of the constituents to instantly demand a recall every time
    Given the antics of UKIP MEPs there is likely to be plenty of scope for recall petitions.
    There would be a lot of recall petitions on very spurious grounds if any Brexit Party MPs were elected. We might even discover that by elections are only ‘advisory’
    You do not understand how recall petitions are triggered.
    Ishmael_Z said:

    isam said:

    OllyT said:

    isam said:

    You’d think the 10% threshold should be reached. Two recalls in a calendar year would suggest this might become a thing.

    Given the precedent of their refusal to accept the referendum result, if The Brexit Party ever won a seat I’d expect 10% of the constituents to instantly demand a recall every time
    Given the antics of UKIP MEPs there is likely to be plenty of scope for recall petitions.
    There would be a lot of recall petitions on very spurious grounds if any Brexit Party MPs were elected. We might even discover that by elections are only ‘advisory’
    You do realise petitions can only be raised in specific circumstances - prison sentences, expenses fraud and getting barred from the HoC - are you taking it as a given that Brexit party mps will do all those things (and "be made scapegoats of by the establishment?")
    Anything’s possible, they’ll find a way. Who would have thought that we’d be told by MPs that the referendum was ‘only advisory’ and we still wouldn’t have left in June 2019 after voting to do so three years earlier? Or that the default of No Deal would be voted down by MPs who want a second go at it?
    You are just being silly now, theyd have to amend legislation to do what you are suggesting, it's not a matter of easily finding a way. No, anything is not possible, at present the possible things are finite and changing that is not simple .
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited June 2019
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rory has lined himself up as the ultimate 'I told you so' candidate for when Boris fails to deliver Brexit.

    Rory is only prepared to deliver Brexit with May's Deal, Boris will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal that is the difference between them
    I doubt this very much. Boris is a strategising chameleon, not an ideologue. The current phase of strategy simply requires him to say that he so very, passionately believes in Brexit with a deal or without a deal, that's all.
    Boris does want a Deal yes and ideally a renegotiated one with no backstop or a time limited backstop but if not he will go to No Deal
    I don't think so. I think he will go for whatever policy prolongs his power, independent of the ramifications or ideological passions burning inside those supporting it, however fondly they believe him to be their man. No-deal would end his premiership within months, if not weeks, so he won't go for it.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Trump skewering Khan on violence again and Khan still has no fucking clue. Honestly if the lib Dems put up a candidate that isn't Chuka I'll vote for them. I'll never vote for the racist, Bailey.

    Homicide is sharply down in London this year. But don’t let facts get in your way.
    Really? There’s a lot of press attention on it so assumed it was up (presumably they are slicing and dicing [sick] to focus on teenage knife killings or something]

    Do you have a link?
    The last two sentences of this link:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-48646922
    It’s down this year from a ten year high in 2018

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/dec/12/london-homicides-now-highest-in-a-year-for-a-decade
    The long term trend remains, I believe, down. It was somewhat distorted by the mass locking up of young scrotes in the wake of the 2011 riots. With their release and the arrival of a new generation of young scrotes, there’s been a reversion to the long term trend.

    To be clear, I don’t think politicians of any stripe have much to do with the trend in crime.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019
    Hunt on Marr now and refuses to commit to a date to leave the EU but says he can still negotiate a good deal and change the backstop and if no prospect of a good deal we would leave with no deal
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited June 2019

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    nichomar said:

    If there is a by election it is foolish to make any assumption about the outcome based on opinion polls.

    1. It is a byelection (obviously)
    2. It’s a wide spread, rural community making canvassing difficult and require boots on the ground.
    3. Will require local candidate with knowledge of local issues
    4. Will have little to do with the outcome of the Tory leadership outcome.

    I don’t know the place so there will be other factors which give better reasons for predicting the result than using polls.

    The LibDem candidate will be their current leader in Wales, born in Wrexham, a Welsh speaker who fought Montgomery (or whatever it is called now) last time.
    It is called Montgomeryshire.

    Jane Dodds does not live in the Brecon & Radnor constituency.

    She lives in Welshpool. I have never heard her speak Welsh.
    Neither have I. Wikipedia says she can, FWIW
    Here is a video of Jane Dodds speaking Welsh and English. Trouble is, her delivery sounds like she is reading an autocue badly in both languages.
    https://www.facebook.com/welshlibdems/videos/jane-dodds-christmas-video/10155193050180878/
    Hmmm .. it is bit like the embarrassing Anglophone Canadian politicians who mumble a few incoherent French words on their trip to Montreal or Quebec City to show that they are really Canadiens as well.
    Yes but she sounds like that in English as well, so it is hard to decide. In both languages, her speech sounds unnaturally slow and over-enunciated. Clearly she can speak Welsh at some level.

    Ah, I see she is a social worker in child protection so perhaps that is where she developed this speech pattern (or maybe it is just the autocue!)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    HYUFD said:

    Hunt on Marr now and refuses to commit to a date to leave the EU but says he can still negotiate a good deal and if no prospect of a good deal we would leave with no deal

    He's also just said he's prepared to leave with no deal - is that a new line from him?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    HYUFD said:

    Yes they seem to be Rory's biggest new idea, other than that he is largely continuity May policy and Brexit wise, hence why May voted for him last week

    I'm unaware of any verified authoritative source that May voted for Stewart, just speculation and gossip.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    On topic: If the LibDems are heavily campaigning for a recall, then I think the 10% threshold will be reached. It's disingenuous of them, to be sure - the leaflet in the header is misleading - but it's a very simple, you might almost say populist, message, and I think will cut through to those who either haven't actually followed the case but are being told they were defrauded, or who want a by-election for other reasons. That combination should make 10%, I'd have thought.

    If the Brexit Party stands, which they probably will, then the LibDems will win this and the new Tory leader will be in an even greater mess.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617

    Rory will not serve under Boris he says on Marr.

    Poor judgment that.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rory has lined himself up as the ultimate 'I told you so' candidate for when Boris fails to deliver Brexit.

    Rory is only prepared to deliver Brexit with May's Deal, Boris will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal that is the difference between them
    As Rory keeps saying Boris can't deliver No Deal. Parliament wont let him. He will have to win a majority at a GE to do it.
    The House of Commons voted against trying to bring legislation to block No Deal last week
    Conservative MPs correctly judged that as Labour trying to take advantage of their leadership election to sow further chaos. They'll give a new leader time to control the agenda and propose an acceptable deal. But if Johnson (or any other PM) tries to pursue no deal, there are certainly the numbers there to block it - just that they don't need to do it now.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Charles, huge legitimacy questions, though, not to mention the problem that political entryism is an exciting new sport.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,543
    What lapel badge is Hunt wearing on Marr?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Trump skewering Khan on violence again and Khan still has no fucking clue. Honestly if the lib Dems put up a candidate that isn't Chuka I'll vote for them. I'll never vote for the racist, Bailey.

    Homicide is sharply down in London this year. But don’t let facts get in your way.
    Really? There’s a lot of press attention on it so assumed it was up (presumably they are slicing and dicing [sick] to focus on teenage knife killings or something]

    Do you have a link?
    The last two sentences of this link:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-48646922
    It’s down this year from a ten year high in 2018

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/dec/12/london-homicides-now-highest-in-a-year-for-a-decade
    The long term trend remains, I believe, down. It was somewhat distorted by the mass locking up of young scrotes in the wake of the 2011 riots. With their release and the arrival of a new generation of young scrotes, there’s been a reversion to the long term trend.

    To be clear, I don’t think politicians of any stripe have much to do with the trend in crime.
    Maybe a coincidence, but the numbers were a lot worse under Livingstone than Boris, and seem to have risen since Khan took over
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,903
    Regarding the televised Tory hustings why would other parties complain? It's hardly goo g to be an advert for the Conservative Party. As for Tory, he brings something to the contest that the Tories need - a candidate who doesn't make the skin crawl.

    Gove is an ideologue far too in love with himself - perhaps the gak fuels his ambition
    Hunt looks like Goebbels and can't be taken remotely seriously (those name slips weren't all accidents)
    Javid is anonymous and is banging on about his back story because he's got nothing else
    Can't even remember the other one.

    I will watch tonight's debate with interest. Stewart is saying things the party doesn't want to hear, which should be why he doesn't stand a chance. Yet here is is making all the running attracting the attention. " 'Tory politician with a brain' shock". His only problem being that I don't think the membership have a brain, and millions of voters definitely don't have one when it comes to Brexit
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    When reading Trump’s approving quote-Tweets of crypto-fascist and racist Katie Hopkins, remember that Boris Johnson is Trump’s choice to be our PM.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited June 2019
    Ed Davey makes the point that the BBC running weeks of debates between pro No Deal Leavers isn't fair and should be balanced by giving similar time to Remainers by giving similar time to the Lib Dem leadership election who after all have just beaten the Tories in the Euros.

    If it wasn't for the Tories capacity to eat themselves even when debating on the same side I'd think he had a good point

    Cont....Vince Cable excellent on Radio 5. Maybe the future is Orange?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    God the lies they will tell to be leader of the conservative, how can anybody who opposed leaving in the first place suddenly believe it is now a golden opportunity?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    HYUFD said:

    Hunt on Marr now and refuses to commit to a date to leave the EU but says he can still negotiate a good deal and if no prospect of a good deal we would leave with no deal

    They all say they'd get a better deal. Does Hunt (or Boris or any of the others) describe what a good deal might look like? Do they say what they'd do without a deal (as last thread, the Gauke question: place tariffs on the EU, or remove them from everywhere else)? And what deals they would attempt to negotiate over the years following? All the candidates give the impression they think we just leave and then it is over.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Rory will not serve under Boris he says on Marr.

    Poor judgment that.
    Consistent with the idea that he will be the leader after Johnson, if he foresees disaster and wants to avoid any responsibility for it.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    OllyT said:

    isam said:

    You’d think the 10% threshold should be reached. Two recalls in a calendar year would suggest this might become a thing.

    Given the precedent of their refusal to accept the referendum result, if The Brexit Party ever won a seat I’d expect 10% of the constituents to instantly demand a recall every time
    Given the antics of UKIP MEPs there is likely to be plenty of scope for recall petitions.
    There would be a lot of recall petitions on very spurious grounds if any Brexit Party MPs were elected. We might even discover that by elections are only ‘advisory’
    You do not understand how recall petitions are triggered.
    Ishmael_Z said:

    isam said:

    OllyT said:

    isam said:

    You’d think the 10% threshold should be reached. Two recalls in a calendar year would suggest this might become a thing.

    Given the precedent of their refusal to accept the referendum result, if The Brexit Party ever won a seat I’d expect 10% of the constituents to instantly demand a recall every time
    Given the antics of UKIP MEPs there is likely to be plenty of scope for recall petitions.
    There would be a lot of recall petitions on very spurious grounds if any Brexit Party MPs were elected. We might even discover that by elections are only ‘advisory’
    You do realise petitions can only be raised in specific circumstances - prison sentences, expenses fraud and getting barred from the HoC - are you taking it as a given that Brexit party mps will do all those things (and "be made scapegoats of by the establishment?")
    Anything’s possible, they’ll find a way. Who would have thought that we’d be told by MPs that the referendum was ‘only advisory’ and we still wouldn’t have left in June 2019 after voting to do so three years earlier? Or that the default of No Deal would be voted down by MPs who want a second go at it?
    You are just being silly now, theyd have to amend legislation to do what you are suggesting, it's not a matter of easily finding a way. No, anything is not possible, at present the possible things are finite and changing that is not simple .
    The Remainer hardcore will do something to find illegitimacy with any Brexit Party or Leave win. They love a petition and a march.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    When reading Trump’s approving quote-Tweets of crypto-fascist and racist Katie Hopkins, remember that Boris Johnson is Trump’s choice to be our PM.

    Or Nigel Farage
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Rory will not serve under Boris he says on Marr.

    Poor judgment that.
    Not at all. Both on grounds of integrity, and with a view to his future career, it's an excellent move. Whoever is going to have to try to pick up the pieces after the multiple pile-up of a Boris premiership can't be someone who helped cause the carnage.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    On topic: If the LibDems are heavily campaigning for a recall, then I think the 10% threshold will be reached. It's disingenuous of them, to be sure - the leaflet in the header is misleading - but it's a very simple, you might almost say populist, message, and I think will cut through to those who either haven't actually followed the case but are being told they were defrauded, or who want a by-election for other reasons. That combination should make 10%, I'd have thought.

    If the Brexit Party stands, which they probably will, then the LibDems will win this and the new Tory leader will be in an even greater mess.

    Not if Boris wins back most Brexit Party voters to the Tories
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677



    Hmmm .. it is bit like the embarrassing Anglophone Canadian politicians who mumble a few incoherent French words on their trip to Montreal or Quebec City to show that they are really Canadiens as well.

    Stephen Harper put a lot of genuine effort into learning French and was not actually terrible (B1 maybe) by the time he got hoofed out.


  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    HYUFD said:

    Hunt on Marr now and refuses to commit to a date to leave the EU but says he can still negotiate a good deal and if no prospect of a good deal we would leave with no deal

    They all say they'd get a better deal. Does Hunt (or Boris or any of the others) describe what a good deal might look like? Do they say what they'd do without a deal (as last thread, the Gauke question: place tariffs on the EU, or remove them from everywhere else)? And what deals they would attempt to negotiate over the years following? All the candidates give the impression they think we just leave and then it is over.
    But we will be on wto rules that solves everything are you not getting the message you are supposed to believe?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Trump skewering Khan on violence again and Khan still has no fucking clue. Honestly if the lib Dems put up a candidate that isn't Chuka I'll vote for them. I'll never vote for the racist, Bailey.

    Homicide is sharply down in London this year. But don’t let facts get in your way.
    Really? There’s a lot of press attention on it so assumed it was up (presumably they are slicing and dicing [sick] to focus on teenage knife killings or something]

    Do you have a link?
    The last two sentences of this link:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-48646922
    It’s down this year from a ten year high in 2018

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/dec/12/london-homicides-now-highest-in-a-year-for-a-decade
    The long term trend remains, I believe, down. It was somewhat distorted by the mass locking up of young scrotes in the wake of the 2011 riots. With their release and the arrival of a new generation of young scrotes, there’s been a reversion to the long term trend.

    To be clear, I don’t think politicians of any stripe have much to do with the trend in crime.
    Maybe a coincidence, but the numbers were a lot worse under Livingstone than Boris, and seem to have risen since Khan took over

    Bit unfair to Ken that really


  • Rory will not serve under Boris he says on Marr.

    Poor judgment that.
    Why? Boris has every chance of failing and failing quite quickly. If that happens, far better to stay out of it and say "I told you so" than go into it, and be judged dishonest for changing your tune as well as part of a losing team.

    Of course, if Johnson turns out to be a triumphant decade long PM then it'll be a major mistake. But the jury is very much out on that.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rory has lined himself up as the ultimate 'I told you so' candidate for when Boris fails to deliver Brexit.

    Rory is only prepared to deliver Brexit with May's Deal, Boris will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal that is the difference between them
    As Rory keeps saying Boris can't deliver No Deal. Parliament wont let him. He will have to win a majority at a GE to do it.
    The House of Commons voted against trying to bring legislation to block No Deal last week
    Technically, no - they voted against reserving parliamentary time during the week after next, with the expectation that such a motion would be brought forward then. One of the issues during the debate is that MPs were being asked to vote for the time without knowing what the motion would say.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Trump skewering Khan on violence again and Khan still has no fucking clue. Honestly if the lib Dems put up a candidate that isn't Chuka I'll vote for them. I'll never vote for the racist, Bailey.

    Homicide is sharply down in London this year. But don’t let facts get in your way.
    Really? There’s a lot of press attention on it so assumed it was up (presumably they are slicing and dicing [sick] to focus on teenage knife killings or something]

    Do you have a link?
    The last two sentences of this link:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-48646922
    It’s down this year from a ten year high in 2018

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/dec/12/london-homicides-now-highest-in-a-year-for-a-decade
    The long term trend remains, I believe, down. It was somewhat distorted by the mass locking up of young scrotes in the wake of the 2011 riots. With their release and the arrival of a new generation of young scrotes, there’s been a reversion to the long term trend.

    To be clear, I don’t think politicians of any stripe have much to do with the trend in crime.
    Maybe a coincidence, but the numbers were a lot worse under Livingstone than Boris, and seem to have risen since Khan took over
    Ken recruited more coppers which is probably one reason crime started to fall, and Theresa May got rid of them which is probably why it rose. Though it would also be interesting to see how the number of young men (most likely to commit crime) rose and fell.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    Rory will not serve under Boris he says on Marr.

    Poor judgment that.
    What’s poor about it, he fundamentally disagrees with his stance . And doesn’t want any future leadership challenge being tainted by the stench of being part of the likely lunatic cabinet Bozo will put together .

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Rory will not serve under Boris he says on Marr.

    Poor judgment that.
    Depends on his objective
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Rory will not serve under Boris he says on Marr.

    Poor judgment that.
    It's a principled judgement. Stewart could have played the game as McVey has done. He could have carried a successful and nationally popular campaign through to the end and ducked the Boris question and thus expect another cabinet post.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019
    tlg86 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hunt on Marr now and refuses to commit to a date to leave the EU but says he can still negotiate a good deal and if no prospect of a good deal we would leave with no deal

    He's also just said he's prepared to leave with no deal - is that a new line from him?
    He has hinted at it before but this is the first time Hunt has firmly said I think he would take us to No Deal if necessary.

    Hunt trying to appeal to both sides of the Brexit divide but by saying he would take us to No Deal he risks losing Remain backing MPs to Rory while his refusal to commit to leave the EU in October means he will still not win over Leave backing MPs from Boris
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    What lapel badge is Hunt wearing on Marr?


    Union Jack I think
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    edited June 2019

    Rory will not serve under Boris he says on Marr.

    Poor judgment that.
    It is at least honest, while Brexit is the only game in town. The alternative is to spend a leadership campaign explaining why Boris's approach is flawed, and then be forced to support and argue for that same approach under collective cabinet responsibility.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019
    Hunt also said he would loyally serve Boris in his cabinet if Boris wins unlike Rory
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    "If Johnson is leader and this survey, the format of which and presentation in the paper has been widely criticised, is on the right lines then a CON hold should be a doddle"

    This sentence should not be in a header article in Political Betting. I expect better.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    HYUFD said:

    On topic: If the LibDems are heavily campaigning for a recall, then I think the 10% threshold will be reached. It's disingenuous of them, to be sure - the leaflet in the header is misleading - but it's a very simple, you might almost say populist, message, and I think will cut through to those who either haven't actually followed the case but are being told they were defrauded, or who want a by-election for other reasons. That combination should make 10%, I'd have thought.

    If the Brexit Party stands, which they probably will, then the LibDems will win this and the new Tory leader will be in an even greater mess.

    Not if Boris wins back most Brexit Party voters to the Tories
    Which he won't. That is the humdinger of a miscalculation which is distorting the leadership contest. He'll win back some, for a while, but Farage will be going strong on the 'Betrayal!' narrative irrespective of who is leader, and telling peope to vote TBP to keep the Tories honest. This is surely the most obvious of points, and will be especially catastrophic for the Conservative Party once Boris has missed his self-imposed 31st October hard deadline.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, compare how many know who Boris is to how many know who Rory is. That recognition has an effect. Boris might still be ahead, even if Rory were better known, but we don't know either way.

    I think Stewart is the only candidate who could challenge Boris for appeal in Scotland yes and indeed Rory already polls better in Scotland than in England.

    What is clear however is Hunt does terribly in Scotland, the Foreign Secretary leading the Tories to just 19%, even Gove and Raab do better in Scotland than Hunt does (albeit the former helped by his Scottish roots)
    Scots are racist?
    No but they like their own e.g. Brown won a landslide in Scotland in 2010 despite losing power nationally
    They are not racist... but they prefer someone of their own race?

    Umm...
    Aside from the peurile notion that the Scots are a 'race', any reason that Scots didn't show much of a preference for those fine examples of the Scotch race, IDS, Cameron and Blair?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Trump skewering Khan on violence again and Khan still has no fucking clue. Honestly if the lib Dems put up a candidate that isn't Chuka I'll vote for them. I'll never vote for the racist, Bailey.

    Homicide is sharply down in London this year. But don’t let facts get in your way.
    Really? There’s a lot of press attention on it so assumed it was up (presumably they are slicing and dicing [sick] to focus on teenage knife killings or something]

    Do you have a link?
    The last two sentences of this link:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-48646922
    It’s down this year from a ten year high in 2018

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/dec/12/london-homicides-now-highest-in-a-year-for-a-decade
    The long term trend remains, I believe, down. It was somewhat distorted by the mass locking up of young scrotes in the wake of the 2011 riots. With their release and the arrival of a new generation of young scrotes, there’s been a reversion to the long term trend.

    To be clear, I don’t think politicians of any stripe have much to do with the trend in crime.
    Maybe a coincidence, but the numbers were a lot worse under Livingstone than Boris, and seem to have risen since Khan took over

    Bit unfair to Ken that really


    Is that absolute numbers? Interesting to know rate per 100,000 population
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rory has lined himself up as the ultimate 'I told you so' candidate for when Boris fails to deliver Brexit.

    Rory is only prepared to deliver Brexit with May's Deal, Boris will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal that is the difference between them
    As Rory keeps saying Boris can't deliver No Deal. Parliament wont let him. He will have to win a majority at a GE to do it.
    The House of Commons voted against trying to bring legislation to block No Deal last week
    Conservative MPs correctly judged that as Labour trying to take advantage of their leadership election to sow further chaos. They'll give a new leader time to control the agenda and propose an acceptable deal. But if Johnson (or any other PM) tries to pursue no deal, there are certainly the numbers there to block it - just that they don't need to do it now.
    That depends, it was Labour MPs from Leave seats won by the Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections that made the difference last week in the defeat of an attempt to block No Deal
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Hunt, Stewart dead on 20.

    Cross-over soon?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    IanB2 said:

    Rory will not serve under Boris he says on Marr.

    Poor judgment that.
    It is at least honest, while Brexit is the only game in town. The alternative is to spend a leadership campaign explaining why Boris's approach is flawed, and then be forced to support and argue for that same approach under collective cabinet responsibility.
    Yep.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    HYUFD said:

    On topic: If the LibDems are heavily campaigning for a recall, then I think the 10% threshold will be reached. It's disingenuous of them, to be sure - the leaflet in the header is misleading - but it's a very simple, you might almost say populist, message, and I think will cut through to those who either haven't actually followed the case but are being told they were defrauded, or who want a by-election for other reasons. That combination should make 10%, I'd have thought.

    If the Brexit Party stands, which they probably will, then the LibDems will win this and the new Tory leader will be in an even greater mess.

    Not if Boris wins back most Brexit Party voters to the Tories
    Which he won't. That is the humdinger of a miscalculation which is distorting the leadership contest. He'll win back some, for a while, but Farage will be going strong on the 'Betrayal!' narrative irrespective of who is leader, and telling peope to vote TBP to keep the Tories honest. This is surely the most obvious of points, and will be especially catastrophic for the Conservative Party once Boris has missed his self-imposed 31st October hard deadline.
    Johnson has made things worse frankly.
This discussion has been closed.