Under the current circumstances, the Tories could select the Archangel Gabriel in Brecon and Radnor and he is still not going to win. Alex Carlile- a distinguished QC, not a farmer- held Montgomery for 14 years before he retired. Amongst other things Jane Dodds is a human rights activist, but has been campaigning on the ground for a while and is going well.
The "Are you local?" nonsense just shows how rattled the Tories are. Even with the "Boris surge" the Tories are barely 21%, and after the first major balls up, they will be back down into the teens.
The Liberal Democrats are going to throw the kitchen sink into any by election, and increasingly they have campaign money when Labour and the Tories do not..
The writ has to be moved by the Tories doesn't it? If there is a recall. Could they stall until autumn?
The Speaker declares the seat vacant and writes to the Returning Officer to advise him of the requirement to fill the seat.
Yes not sure he needed to say that. But any deal would still include something going through parliament . The problem for the Tories is that Farage will trash anything and scream betrayal unless it’s a WTO Brexit .
I think Stewart came across as too fawning to Farage and given most of his support is from the more pro EU wing sucking up to Farage is a bad move .
He needs to repair the damage so will need a good debate tonight .
Rory Stewart had to deal with the warring factions in Iraq so Farage was a breeze. His offer is to bring the 52/48 together as far as possible so talking to Farage is appropriate.
Stewart's refusal to serve in a Boris "No Deal" government is because it is intent at all costs on 31st October of not bringing the nation together.
That maybe the case but he sounded far too fawning over Farage today . Not a good look . I think Stewart might be having regrets now and needs to repair the damage tonight . Don’t get me wrong I like Stewart but his LBC interview would have worried some of his supporters .
Under the current circumstances, the Tories could select the Archangel Gabriel in Brecon and Radnor and he is still not going to win. Alex Carlile- a distinguished QC, not a farmer- held Montgomery for 14 years before he retired. Amongst other things Jane Dodds is a human rights activist, but has been campaigning on the ground for a while and is going well.
The "Are you local?" nonsense just shows how rattled the Tories are. Even with the "Boris surge" the Tories are barely 21%, and after the first major balls up, they will be back down into the teens.
The Liberal Democrats are going to throw the kitchen sink into any by election, and increasingly they have campaign money when Labour and the Tories do not..
The writ has to be moved by the Tories doesn't it? If there is a recall. Could they stall until autumn?
The Speaker declares the seat vacant and writes to the Returning Officer to advise him of the requirement to fill the seat.
The incumbent party still has discretion regarding the timing of moving the writ for the consequent by election. Nick Brown moved the writ for Peterborough.
Under the current circumstances, the Tories could select the Archangel Gabriel in Brecon and Radnor and he is still not going to win. Alex Carlile- a distinguished QC, not a farmer- held Montgomery for 14 years before he retired. Amongst other things Jane Dodds is a human rights activist, but has been campaigning on the ground for a while and is going well.
The "Are you local?" nonsense just shows how rattled the Tories are. Even with the "Boris surge" the Tories are barely 21%, and after the first major balls up, they will be back down into the teens.
The Liberal Democrats are going to throw the kitchen sink into any by election, and increasingly they have campaign money when Labour and the Tories do not..
The writ has to be moved by the Tories doesn't it? If there is a recall. Could they stall until autumn?
The Speaker declares the seat vacant and writes to the Returning Officer to advise him of the requirement to fill the seat.
The incumbent party still has discretion regarding the timing of moving the writ for the consequent by election. Nick Brown moved the writ for Peterborough.
It is only customary for the defending party to move the writ. Another party may do so.
That is why it is important to have ****FARMERS**** as MPs.
Rather than yet another former charity worker ... or a lawyer, or a banker, or teacher.
Precisely because this view needs articulating by farmers.
And that is all I said -- a Welsh farming seat should be represented by a Welsh farmer.
I have no particular animus against the LibDems (any more than for Labour or the Tories) -- I would have voted for Richard Livsey.
Brecon & Radnor By-Election August 2019
Farmer - "I'm going to go bust if this WTO goes through !!"
Tory Farmer Candidate - "I know but we're leaving on those terms on 31st October"
LibDem Charity Worker Candidate - "We must stop WTO BREXIT to save your farm"
No prizes for guessing the result.
Farmer - "I'm going to go bust if this WTO goes through !!"
Tory Farmer Candidate - "I know, the same for me. I'll be going to Westminster and shouting this from the benches. It will carry conviction because I am a farmer. I know what I am talking about."
LibDem Charity Worker Candidate - "We must have more wind farms. Everyone on pb.com loves me. "
Under the current circumstances, the Tories could select the Archangel Gabriel in Brecon and Radnor and he is still not going to win. Alex Carlile- a distinguished QC, not a farmer- held Montgomery for 14 years before he retired. Amongst other things Jane Dodds is a human rights activist, but has been campaigning on the ground for a while and is going well.
The "Are you local?" nonsense just shows how rattled the Tories are. Even with the "Boris surge" the Tories are barely 21%, and after the first major balls up, they will be back down into the teens.
The Liberal Democrats are going to throw the kitchen sink into any by election, and increasingly they have campaign money when Labour and the Tories do not..
Brecon and Radnor is not Montgomeryshire. That's like saying because Labour regained Stroud they are clearly going to take Cotswold.
Not quite sure what the issue is, 80% of Welsh people don't speak Welsh and fear of being ruled by the Welsh-speaking mafia is, in my opinion, what has prevented Plaid Cymru emulating the SNP. I say that as a Welshman by the way.
The issue is there are doubts about whether she's being honest.
Under the current circumstances, the Tories could select the Archangel Gabriel in Brecon and Radnor and he is still not going to win. Alex Carlile- a distinguished QC, not a farmer- held Montgomery for 14 years before he retired. Amongst other things Jane Dodds is a human rights activist, but has been campaigning on the ground for a while and is going well.
The "Are you local?" nonsense just shows how rattled the Tories are. Even with the "Boris surge" the Tories are barely 21%, and after the first major balls up, they will be back down into the teens.
The Liberal Democrats are going to throw the kitchen sink into any by election, and increasingly they have campaign money when Labour and the Tories do not..
The writ has to be moved by the Tories doesn't it? If there is a recall. Could they stall until autumn?
The Speaker declares the seat vacant and writes to the Returning Officer to advise him of the requirement to fill the seat.
The incumbent party still has discretion regarding the timing of moving the writ for the consequent by election. Nick Brown moved the writ for Peterborough.
It is only customary for the defending party to move the writ. Another party may do so.
Indeed - that happened re- the Oldham East & Saddleworth by election at the end of 2010. However, if then pressed to a vote - and defeated -, I don't believe the writ can be moved again in the same session.
That is why it is important to have ****FARMERS**** as MPs.
Rather than yet another former charity worker ... or a lawyer, or a banker, or teacher.
Precisely because this view needs articulating by farmers.
And that is all I said -- a Welsh farming seat should be represented by a Welsh farmer.
I have no particular animus against the LibDems (any more than for Labour or the Tories) -- I would have voted for Richard Livsey.
Brecon & Radnor By-Election August 2019
Farmer - "I'm going to go bust if this WTO goes through !!"
Tory Farmer Candidate - "I know but we're leaving on those terms on 31st October"
LibDem Charity Worker Candidate - "We must stop WTO BREXIT to save your farm"
No prizes for guessing the result.
Farmer - "I'm going to go bust if this WTO goes through !!"
Tory Farmer Candidate - "I know, the same for me. I'll be going to Westminster and shouting this from the benches. It will carry conviction because I am a farmer. I know what I am talking about."
LibDem Charity Worker Candidate - "We must have more wind farms. Everyone on pb.com loves me. "
Voter -- "WTF is pb.com"
No prizes for guessing the result.
Farmer - Great. You'll be voting against the government in a VONC then ??
Under the current circumstances, the Tories could select the Archangel Gabriel in Brecon and Radnor and he is still not going to win. Alex Carlile- a distinguished QC, not a farmer- held Montgomery for 14 years before he retired. Amongst other things Jane Dodds is a human rights activist, but has been campaigning on the ground for a while and is going well.
The "Are you local?" nonsense just shows how rattled the Tories are. Even with the "Boris surge" the Tories are barely 21%, and after the first major balls up, they will be back down into the teens.
The Liberal Democrats are going to throw the kitchen sink into any by election, and increasingly they have campaign money when Labour and the Tories do not..
The writ has to be moved by the Tories doesn't it? If there is a recall. Could they stall until autumn?
The Speaker declares the seat vacant and writes to the Returning Officer to advise him of the requirement to fill the seat.
The incumbent party still has discretion regarding the timing of moving the writ for the consequent by election. Nick Brown moved the writ for Peterborough.
It is only customary for the defending party to move the writ. Another party may do so.
Indeed - that happened re- the Oldham East & Saddleworth by election at the end of 2010. However, if then pressed to a vote - and defeated -, I don't believe the writ can be moved again in the same session.
I not sure it's a great idea for the Conservatives to vote against a writ being moved in a recall by-election ?!?
The key point to note is that average wages are very low.
My instinct based on my ties to the constituency albeit some years ago is that if the recall petition succeeds the Tories will win, because the voters will be severely pissed off at being asked to vote again for something that didn't incur a prison sentence and will enjoy seeing many people pontificating about them look stupid.
What’s poor about it, he fundamentally disagrees with his stance . And doesn’t want any future leadership challenge being tainted by the stench of being part of the likely lunatic cabinet Bozo will put together .
That is what's poor about it. If he thinks it will be such a disaster, and the cabinet will be so full of right wing nut jobs, best to take the most responsible position that is offered, to alleviate the damage to country and party. To 'build bridges' that he professes to be so in favour of. It's called public service.
Nope. If he doesn’t agree with the central thesis of the government then it would be dishonourable to commit to be bound by collective responsibility
Well, yes, I got that far, but I think your language was perhaps a little thoughtless.
OK point noted and taken. "Fine" in isolation was not apt. However, just finally on this, all I was trying to do was provide ballast. This is needed lest we sink under the weight of too much anti-Corbyn bias.
If the breaking news had been that Venezuela had lost all its juice there would have been a flood of posts highlighting this and contemplating the similar calamities which would doubtless befall the UK should Jeremy ever get in.
Fair enough, I take that sort of thing on the chin, but in this case the story is a good news one for Venezuela, in that every country in South America EXCEPT them is in a pickle on power. They are 'fine' in this regard. Venezuela is Top of the Class today on this matter of not having a full national power cut down there in South America - and so I wanted to bring this to people's attention.
The key point to note is that average wages are very low.
My instinct based on my ties to the constituency albeit some years ago is that if the recall petition succeeds the Tories will win, because the voters will be severely pissed off at being asked to vote again for something that didn't incur a prison sentence and will enjoy seeing many people pontificating about them look stupid.
But I could be wrong.
My instinct is if the Tories pick the right candidate, they will win.
It is wrong to look at this seat through a London-centric lens.
Seems power is being restored slowly and thankfully at least the problem occurred on a Sunday morning in daylight hours.
Still just looked at the BBC homepage - and its ranked lower as a headline story than 'Mum finds a hidden camera in the toilets at Costa Coffee in Chelmsford!' The Essex police have launched an investigation so we should by thankful and the mother has got free publicity for her campaign for improved cleanliness in public toilets. She apparently regularly reports videos and pictures of facilities that don't meet standards.
Bizarre!
That is a feelgood story if ever I heard one. It is unsung heroines like that who keep this country going. All power to her ... whatever it is she uses when she's in there doing her stuff.
Jane Dodds is not local, she does not live in the constituency, and she has little in common with the majority of the constituents.
She would be the ideal LibDem candidate for the constituency of pb.com Central or Smithson North. She loves wind farms, she works for a charity, she is strong on identity politics.
She is a poor candidate for Brecon and Radnor.
The previous two LibDem MPs were LOCAL (i.e. live in Brecon & Radnor and had roots there) FARMERS.
Richard Livsey was a farmer, (and lecturer in agricultural science at Aberystwyth University). Roger Williams was a farmer and chair of Brecon and Radnor Farmers Union.
If the Tories choose a local who can speak to the farming vote, they will win.
Is the farming vote keen on a WTO BREXIT that would see vast imports of cheap tariff free agricultural products ?
I have no idea.
Is the (yet to be selected) Tory candidate for Brecon and Radnor actually arguing for a WTO BREXIT ?
I think a Welsh farming seat should be represented by a Welsh farmer.
Incidentally, I made the same point some time ago about the neighbouring constituency of Montgomeryshire.
I said if the LibDems continue to choose London metropolitans with no connection to the seat (Carlisle, Opik), they would end up losing it.
The Tories finally wised up and choose a Welsh-speaking farmer, and hey presto, the Montgomeryshire seat is now very safe for the Tories.
I grew up on a farm... my father was born just outside Builth. Would I qualify?
... a Welsh farming seat should be represented by a Welsh farmer...
During the kerfuffle over House of Lords reform, when politicians realised that yes, it was undemocratic, but what they really wanted was to fuck the LibDems up, some ideas were floated as alternatives/spoilers. One of them was that the House of Lords should become a House of Guilds: where people were elected by their guild to represent their trade or profession. I really like this idea and it would meet your criteria
Under the current circumstances, the Tories could select the Archangel Gabriel in Brecon and Radnor and he is still not going to win. Alex Carlile- a distinguished QC, not a farmer- held Montgomery for 14 years before he retired. Amongst other things Jane Dodds is a human rights activist, but has been campaigning on the ground for a while and is going well.
The "Are you local?" nonsense just shows how rattled the Tories are. Even with the "Boris surge" the Tories are barely 21%, and after the first major balls up, they will be back down into the teens.
The Liberal Democrats are going to throw the kitchen sink into any by election, and increasingly they have campaign money when Labour and the Tories do not..
A hilarious bulletin from Tallinn.
"Alex Carlile- a distinguished QC, not a farmer- held Montgomery for 14 years before he retired."
And he then LEFT the LibDems,
(Incidentally, and for the second time to a fanatical LibDem who knows nothing about Wales, the name of the seat is Montgomeryshire.)
Tallinn seems to know rather more about Wales than some self-professed experts. During the period Alex Carlile was MP the constituency was called Montgomery as he correctly states. It only became Montgomeryshire in 1997 the year that Carlile retired.
What’s poor about it, he fundamentally disagrees with his stance . And doesn’t want any future leadership challenge being tainted by the stench of being part of the likely lunatic cabinet Bozo will put together .
That is what's poor about it. If he thinks it will be such a disaster, and the cabinet will be so full of right wing nut jobs, best to take the most responsible position that is offered, to alleviate the damage to country and party. To 'build bridges' that he professes to be so in favour of. It's called public service.
Nope. If he doesn’t agree with the central thesis of the government then it would be dishonourable to commit to be bound by collective responsibility
He doesn't know what the central thesis of the Government will be, but he has already ruled it out.
Tallinn seems to know rather more about Wales than some self-professed experts. During the period Alex Carlile was MP the constituency was called Montgomery as he correctly states. It only became Montgomeryshire in 1997 the year that Carlile retired.
I am surprised that you or Tallinn seem to want to remind us of Carlile. He was hardly a great beacon of LibDem success.
It was certainly convenient for Carlile to leave his wife in Montgomeryshire looking after the constituency and three children, so he could conduct clandestine and adulterous affairs, as recounted by his now ex-wife.
That is one big advantage of these remote Welsh constituencies for the thrusting LibDem politicians. Wife is a long way away when you are up in the Big City doing Big LibDem Things.
And then, it appears that Carlile wasn't even a LibDem after all -- being a dangerous control freak and fanatic on Control Orders and the Snoopers Charter.
He resigned from the LibDems, but if he hadn't, the few honest LibDems actually interested in civil liberties would have kicked him out.
Still, let's hoist the Lib Dem orange flag over Welshpool and call it a great success from Tallinn. It is only Wales, after all, a country the LibDems have little actual interest in.
If I was a LibDem, I would be trying to ensure people forgot about Carlile (who no longer sits for them in the House of Lords anyway).
Tallinn seems to know rather more about Wales than some self-professed experts. During the period Alex Carlile was MP the constituency was called Montgomery as he correctly states. It only became Montgomeryshire in 1997 the year that Carlile retired.
I am surprised that you or Tallinn seem to want to remind us of Carlile. He was hardly a great beacon of LibDem success.
It was certainly convenient for Carlile to leave his wife in Montgomeryshire looking after the constituency and three children, so he could conduct clandestine and adulterous affairs, as recounted by his now ex-wife.
That is one big advantage of these remote Welsh constituencies for the thrusting LibDem politicians. Wife is a long way away when you are up in the Big City doing Big LibDem Things.
And then, it appears that Carlile wasn't even a LibDem after all -- being a dangerous control freak and fanatic on Control Orders and the Snoopers Charter.
He resigned from the LibDems, but if he hadn't, the few honest LibDems actually interested in civil liberties would have kicked him out.
Still, let's hoist the Lib Dem orange flag over Welshpool and call it a great success from Tallinn. It is only Wales, after all, a country the LibDems have little actual interest in.
If I was a LibDem, I would be trying to ensure people forgot about Carlile (who no longer sits for them in the House of Lords anyway).
Lots of bluster but it doesn't alter the fact that you couldn't even manage to get the name of the constituency right at the time Carlile was MP. If you're going to pose as someone who is knowledgable about Welsh politics at least try and get the basics right, otherwise you're just going to keep on embarrassing yourself.
Tallinn seems to know rather more about Wales than some self-professed experts. During the period Alex Carlile was MP the constituency was called Montgomery as he correctly states. It only became Montgomeryshire in 1997 the year that Carlile retired.
I am surprised that you or Tallinn seem to want to remind us of Carlile. He was hardly a great beacon of LibDem success.
It was certainly convenient for Carlile to leave his wife in Montgomeryshire looking after the constituency and three children, so he could conduct clandestine and adulterous affairs, as recounted by his now ex-wife.
That is one big advantage of these remote Welsh constituencies for the thrusting LibDem politicians. Wife is a long way away when you are up in the Big City doing Big LibDem Things.
And then, it appears that Carlile wasn't even a LibDem after all -- being a dangerous control freak and fanatic on Control Orders and the Snoopers Charter.
He resigned from the LibDems, but if he hadn't, the few honest LibDems actually interested in civil liberties would have kicked him out.
Still, let's hoist the Lib Dem orange flag over Welshpool and call it a great success from Tallinn. It is only Wales, after all, a country the LibDems have little actual interest in.
If I was a LibDem, I would be trying to ensure people forgot about Carlile (who no longer sits for them in the House of Lords anyway).
Lots of bluster but it doesn't alter the fact that you couldn't even manage to get the name of the constituency right at the time Carlile was MP. If you're going to pose as someone who is knowledgable about Welsh politics at least try and get the basics right, otherwise you're just going to keep on embarrassing yourself.
"... knowledgable about Welsh politics .... " dearie, dearie me.
My great grandfather ran the Montgomeryshire Liberal Association in the days when the Liberals were actually a force in Welsh politics. I have pictures of him with Clement Davies.
If the Liberal Democrats understood anything about Welsh politics, they would not have lost Montgomeryshire in the first place.
Its good to know that your great grandfather had some knowledge of Welsh politics even if your own is apparently much shakier. Still it does emphasise just how embarrassing your failure to get the constituency name right is, especially after calling someone else out on the subject. At least have the good grace to apologise when you make a mistake.
Its good to know that your great grandfather had some knowledge of Welsh politics even if your own is apparently much shakier. Still it does emphasise just how embarrassing your failure to get the constituency name right is, especially after calling someone else out on the subject. At least have the good grace to apologise when you make a mistake.
"Its" --> "It's". Dearie, dearie me. I think on pb.com missing apostrophes are believed to be the tell-tale sign of a UKIP voter.
The present name of the constituency is Montgomeryshire.
In the past, it has been called Montgomery and Montgomery Boroughs.
Still, we are living in the present, most of us.
You and Tallinn may be reliving the glory days of Alex and Lembit, but most of us want to forget those long-gone embarrassments.
I suspect it may help the LibDems in mid-Wales not to be reminding everyone of Alex or Lembit (or Mick Bates).
Comments
What rubbish .
"Electrical failure cuts power to all of Argentina and Uruguay, supplier says"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-48652686
Farmer - "I'm going to go bust if this WTO goes through !!"
Tory Farmer Candidate - "I know but we're leaving on those terms on 31st October"
LibDem Charity Worker Candidate - "We must stop WTO BREXIT to save your farm"
No prizes for guessing the result.
Tory Farmer Candidate - "I know, the same for me. I'll be going to Westminster and shouting this from the benches. It will carry conviction because I am a farmer. I know what I am talking about."
LibDem Charity Worker Candidate - "We must have more wind farms. Everyone on pb.com loves me. "
Voter -- "WTF is pb.com"
No prizes for guessing the result.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7145937/Britain-Cubas-staunchest-ally-Labour-win-power-says-John-McDonnell.html
At Euro elections, Powys (inc Brecon & Radnor) was the best Lib Dem result in Wales with 24%.
Conservatives hold at Westminster but Lib Dem in Senedd.
This is a farming seat. No industry - some tourism - no commuters..
Welsh speaking in its western edges but mostly English speaking.
This is going to be won by Lib Dems - big style.
Tory Farmer Candidate - Er ... steady on ....
Farmer - The slurry tank is over there !!!!!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2016-wales-36045737
Of course, many of the industries are linked to farming.
You may find this graph of interest:
https://powys.moderngov.co.uk/documents/s8484/C39 Economic Development Strategy Appendix D.pdf
The key point to note is that average wages are very low.
My instinct based on my ties to the constituency albeit some years ago is that if the recall petition succeeds the Tories will win, because the voters will be severely pissed off at being asked to vote again for something that didn't incur a prison sentence and will enjoy seeing many people pontificating about them look stupid.
But I could be wrong.
If the breaking news had been that Venezuela had lost all its juice there would have been a flood of posts highlighting this and contemplating the similar calamities which would doubtless befall the UK should Jeremy ever get in.
Fair enough, I take that sort of thing on the chin, but in this case the story is a good news one for Venezuela, in that every country in South America EXCEPT them is in a pickle on power. They are 'fine' in this regard. Venezuela is Top of the Class today on this matter of not having a full national power cut down there in South America - and so I wanted to bring this to people's attention.
It is wrong to look at this seat through a London-centric lens.
And I am not sure the LibDems have chosen wisely.
My Welsh is a little limited though
It was certainly convenient for Carlile to leave his wife in Montgomeryshire looking after the constituency and three children, so he could conduct clandestine and adulterous affairs, as recounted by his now ex-wife.
That is one big advantage of these remote Welsh constituencies for the thrusting LibDem politicians. Wife is a long way away when you are up in the Big City doing Big LibDem Things.
And then, it appears that Carlile wasn't even a LibDem after all -- being a dangerous control freak and fanatic on Control Orders and the Snoopers Charter.
He resigned from the LibDems, but if he hadn't, the few honest LibDems actually interested in civil liberties would have kicked him out.
Still, let's hoist the Lib Dem orange flag over Welshpool and call it a great success from Tallinn. It is only Wales, after all, a country the LibDems have little actual interest in.
If I was a LibDem, I would be trying to ensure people forgot about Carlile (who no longer sits for them in the House of Lords anyway).
My great grandfather ran the Montgomeryshire Liberal Association in the days when the Liberals were actually a force in Welsh politics. I have pictures of him with Clement Davies.
If the Liberal Democrats understood anything about Welsh politics, they would not have lost Montgomeryshire in the first place.
The present name of the constituency is Montgomeryshire.
In the past, it has been called Montgomery and Montgomery Boroughs.
Still, we are living in the present, most of us.
You and Tallinn may be reliving the glory days of Alex and Lembit, but most of us want to forget those long-gone embarrassments.
I suspect it may help the LibDems in mid-Wales not to be reminding everyone of Alex or Lembit (or Mick Bates).