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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » To show they’re back in the game the LDs need the Brecon & Rad

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019

    HYUFD said:

    On topic: If the LibDems are heavily campaigning for a recall, then I think the 10% threshold will be reached. It's disingenuous of them, to be sure - the leaflet in the header is misleading - but it's a very simple, you might almost say populist, message, and I think will cut through to those who either haven't actually followed the case but are being told they were defrauded, or who want a by-election for other reasons. That combination should make 10%, I'd have thought.

    If the Brexit Party stands, which they probably will, then the LibDems will win this and the new Tory leader will be in an even greater mess.

    Not if Boris wins back most Brexit Party voters to the Tories
    Which he won't. That is the humdinger of a miscalculation which is distorting the leadership contest. He'll win back some, for a while, but Farage will be going strong on the 'Betrayal!' narrative irrespective of who is leader, and telling peope to vote TBP to keep the Tories honest. This is surely the most obvious of points, and will be especially catastrophic for the Conservative Party once Boris has missed his self-imposed 31st October hard deadline.
    Boris cuts the Brexit Party back to 13% with Yougov and even less with Comres and gives the Tories a clear lead.

    Boris has committed to take us out Deal or No Deal in October but of course if he doesn't as Yougov today shows Nigel Farage would be Kingmaker in the Commons and Boris could not become PM without the backing of Brexit Party MPs
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    Trump skewering Khan on violence again and Khan still has no fucking clue. Honestly if the lib Dems put up a candidate that isn't Chuka I'll vote for them. I'll never vote for the racist, Bailey.

    Yes, it's terrific - rather touching even - that the American President, with all that he has on his plate, is so concerned about the crime rate in our capital city. Demonstrates remarkable bandwidth.
    It probably demonstrates they've just run a report from London on Fox News.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,900
    Morning all :)

    One or two of those not well disposed toward the LDs getting a fit of the vapours over the Brecon & Radnor recall petition. Perhaps but it's politics and for parties struggling in fourth with 19% of the poll any and every opportunity has to be taken.

    The nature of the offence automatically triggered the recall under the terms of the 2015 Act which Conservatives voted through and was perhaps an understandable if delayed reaction to the expenses claims scandals of the late 2000s.

    It's almost tradition for LD leaders to have their baptism of fire in a by-election or similar. The late and much lamented Charles Kennedy had his moment when Romsey was taken in 1999 from the main Opposition party and it would be a huge fillip for the Party and the new leader were the seat to be re-captured.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    Dura_Ace said:



    Hmmm .. it is bit like the embarrassing Anglophone Canadian politicians who mumble a few incoherent French words on their trip to Montreal or Quebec City to show that they are really Canadiens as well.

    Stephen Harper put a lot of genuine effort into learning French and was not actually terrible (B1 maybe) by the time he got hoofed out.
    OK I agree B1 is "not actually terrible", but most Canadians I have met got to at least this level in school and is not really worth praising a Prime Minister for reaching this level.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    nico67 said:

    Rory will not serve under Boris he says on Marr.

    Poor judgment that.
    What’s poor about it, he fundamentally disagrees with his stance . And doesn’t want any future leadership challenge being tainted by the stench of being part of the likely lunatic cabinet Bozo will put together .

    Yep. He is playing for next time, or even one after (we may see Tories get through leaders very quickly now).

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    edited June 2019
    nichomar said:

    What lapel badge is Hunt wearing on Marr?


    Union Jack I think
    What a tit.
    Does he need reminding what country he’s representing or something?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Hunt, Stewart dead on 20.

    Cross-over soon?

    The market is very odd and probably a trader's dream at the moment as prices move in and out based, so far as I can tell, on no news. I was trying to work out if Gove was the new Leadsom as his price fell but now it has drifted back out again.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:



    Ty
    Tout the s.
    No it is a fact that Boris gets the Tories to a higher voteshare in Scotland than any other Tory leadership candidate.

    I know it does not fit diehard Remainers whinges about how Boris is less popular than Edward IInd in Scotland but tough those are the facts.


    The average 2017 Scottish Tory was not some young urban pro independence social liberal but actually a pensioner living in a rural area or market town and a social conservative and very likely a Leave voter and many of them are now voting Brexit Party.

    So Boris boosts the Tories vote in Scotlsnd just as he does in the rest of the UK

    How can it be a "fact" when it hasn't been tested, and never will, at least in this universe?
    We know the Tories were 4th in the European Parliament elections in Scotland behind the SNP, the Brexit Party and the LDs so a generic Tory will not do, Boris is is does)
    The conclusion is your opinion, not a fact at all.
    No it is a fact based on the polling and the rise of the Brexit Party in Scotland, just you dislike the facts
    Your comment exemplifies the problem with so many of your posts on here. There is no such thing as a "fact based on polling".

    Polling is merely an indication, subject to lots of caveats and a significant degree of error. Polling about leaders who aren't even in post is even more flaky, and can never be proven right or wrong since we will never get to compare different leaders' performances in the same election. How a leader performs in office can be very different from what people may be expecting, even if they have heard of the person to begin with.
    What it does show though is that the argument of some on here that the Tories face guaranteed disaster in Scotland under Boris is complete rubbish and I will continue to make that point
    Bottom line is that Boris will get a honeymoon, as would anyone (as did both May and Brown, despite what followed).

    After that, he'll have to perform in office - PMQs, representing the country, putting together a government, deciding how to take Brexit forward.

    He might surprise on the upside, or fulfil everyone's worst fears on the downside. After a few months, that record will matter a LOT more than the results of some hypothetical poll now and your bashing the buttons of your calculator on various subsamples.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited June 2019

    nichomar said:

    What lapel badge is Hunt wearing on Marr?


    Union Jack I think
    What a tit.
    Does he need reminding what country he’s representing or something?
    Trying to imitate the Trump / Obama / Bush approach, with the lapel badges most recently initiated by Bush, himself imitating Nixon at the height of the Vietnam era.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    What lapel badge is Hunt wearing on Marr?


    Union Jack I think
    What a tit.
    Does he need reminding what country he’s representing or something?
    Another Americanism creeping into UK politics. Trump probably advised him to do it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    What lapel badge is Hunt wearing on Marr?


    Union Jack I think
    What a tit.
    Does he need reminding what country he’s representing or something?
    Another Americanism creeping into UK politics. Trump probably advised him to do it.
    I thought it was his wife's country he needed reminding of.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited June 2019
    isam said:


    The Remainer hardcore will do something to find illegitimacy with any Brexit Party or Leave win. They love a petition and a march.

    But that's just it, it is not as simple as 'doing something' to find illegitimacy. If they are not convicted of a crime and sentenced to less than 12 months in prison, or convicted of any expenses offence, or suspended from the House of Commons for a set period, none of which are entirely under the control of the 'remainer hardcore' then they cannot do anything short of changing legislation.

    I get being aggrieved by how many have reacted to the referendum, but it is just simply not the case that MPs can so simply decide they don't like Brexit MPs and so will find a way to recall them. You're essentially already getting worked up and righteously angry about something that hasn't happened, and cannot happen in the way you think anyway. Perhaps be angry at things actually happening.

    For one thing people can stand in any recall by-election, so anyone turfed out for a flimsy reason, eg just because some dislike them, would get back in.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    What lapel badge is Hunt wearing on Marr?


    Union Jack I think
    What a tit.
    Does he need reminding what country he’s representing or something?
    Another Americanism creeping into UK politics. Trump probably advised him to do it.
    Hunt used to wear an NHS badge as Health Secretary but yes, his union flag does look like an Americanism.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,900
    Having spent a week in the lair of the beast (Belgium), I can honestly say no one mentioned Brexit to me at all. Everyone was very friendly, the food in Bruges and elsewhere glorious and the train service excellent. The weather could have been better but I gather it's not been much here.

    From afar, I've caught snippets of the seemingly irresistible return of Boris Johnson. To his credit, he has recognised the longer the UK stays caught in the fly-trap of Brexit the weaker the Conservative Party will become so the UK must leave on October 31st whether with an agreed WA or not. That of course may end one nightmare and start another but that seems the risk Boris is prepared to take to save the Conservatives from a long and lingering death.

    He has no solution and sounds more like May than some of the others on the logistics of us leaving and getting that through Parliament. The problem will be if the EU offer an extension to 2022 - if the EU decide not to offer an extension, any problems can be blamed on the EU but if the EU offer the extension and Boris decides to walk away he (or rather his Government) will own any problems resulting. Johnson will have seen the guidance on the consequences of a "No Deal" exit and it may be he either doesn't accept it or has decided the risk of leaving the Conservatives wriggling like fish on a hook are too great.

    My second thought is the assumption Farage and TBP will just sit there and allow Johnson to take all their votes. I imagine Farage has some thoughts on how to deal with a Johnson-led Government and I wonder if immigration may be the elephant in this room. Johnson has always been liberal on immigration (well, he was when Mayor of London) and faces being outflanked by the more assertively anti-migrant TBP when it comes to deciding a post-EU immigration policy.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited June 2019
    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes they seem to be Rory's biggest new idea, other than that he is largely continuity May policy and Brexit wise, hence why May voted for him last week

    I'm unaware of any verified authoritative source that May voted for Stewart, just speculation and gossip.
    When something is in a poll or is speculated in a newspaper, it becomes fact to HYUFD.
  • PhukovPhukov Posts: 132
    kle4 said:

    isam said:


    The Remainer hardcore will do something to find illegitimacy with any Brexit Party or Leave win. They love a petition and a march.

    But that's just it, it is not as simple as 'doing something' to find illegitimacy. If they are not convicted of a crime and sentenced to less than 12 months in prison, or convicted of any expenses offence, or suspended from the House of Commons for a set period, none of which are entirely under the control of the 'remainer hardcore' then they cannot do anything short of changing legislation.

    I get being aggrieved by how many have reacted to the referendum, but it is just simply not the case that MPs can so simply decide they don't like Brexit MPs and so will find a way to recall them.

    For one thing people can stand in any recall by-election, so anyone turfed out for a flimsy reason, eg just because some dislike them, would get back in.
    You're wasting your time. He'll have his tantrum, facts or no facts.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited June 2019
    nichomar said:

    Is that absolute numbers? Interesting to know rate per 100,000 population

    Yep, that's quite important given the pretty hefty population growth. Per cap homicide rate is now half what it was 15 years ago:

    https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/2587/production/_104970690_per_hundred_thousand-nc.png



  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722
    Which will the Conservative party choose, Stanley or Oliver?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    If you want someone to hold Johnson to account in the debates then Stewart is the only one who will do that .

    The rest will all be arse licking Bozo to get a cabinet job .
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,847
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Trump skewering Khan on violence again and Khan still has no fucking clue. Honestly if the lib Dems put up a candidate that isn't Chuka I'll vote for them. I'll never vote for the racist, Bailey.

    Homicide is sharply down in London this year. But don’t let facts get in your way.
    Really? There’s a lot of press attention on it so assumed it was up (presumably they are slicing and dicing [sick] to focus on teenage knife killings or something]

    Do you have a link?
    The last two sentences of this link:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-48646922
    It’s down this year from a ten year high in 2018

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/dec/12/london-homicides-now-highest-in-a-year-for-a-decade
    The long term trend remains, I believe, down. It was somewhat distorted by the mass locking up of young scrotes in the wake of the 2011 riots. With their release and the arrival of a new generation of young scrotes, there’s been a reversion to the long term trend.

    To be clear, I don’t think politicians of any stripe have much to do with the trend in crime.
    Maybe a coincidence, but the numbers were a lot worse under Livingstone than Boris, and seem to have risen since Khan took over

    Bit unfair to Ken that really


    Looking at that graph Khan "has" the lowest average of the 3 mayors to date. The idea the Mayor has significant control over the murder rate is quite strange. The cheapest and quickest way to reduce knife crime would be stop talking so much about it. The sensationalist media coverage will have led to a normalisation effect, which is followed by more and more teenagers carrying knives in a foolish attempt at self preservation.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Can you imagine if in a few weeks time Com Res had to apologize for a mistake in their data set about the impact of possible leader on voting intentions which negated the already very dubious results.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722
    nichomar said:

    Is that absolute numbers? Interesting to know rate per 100,000 population

    Clue: they are shown as whole numbers.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    edited June 2019
    geoffw said:

    Which will the Conservative party choose, Stanley or Oliver?

    Another Fine Eton Mess whichever.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Mike has rather overlooked the December 2016 Richmond by election as a farly recent example of the LibDems being the clear challenger. I make the Government cum DUP majority to be 5 currently , but more crucial than what happens at Brecon & Radnor is surely how many Tory MPs resign the Whip in response to Johnson's election. Grieve, Greening and Lee come to mind and there may well be others . That should be sufficient to topple the Government.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    When reading Trump’s approving quote-Tweets of crypto-fascist and racist Katie Hopkins, remember that Boris Johnson is Trump’s choice to be our PM.

    It would be interesting to see a poll on the relative popularity of Trump and khan. My guess about 10/1 in Khans favour-at least!
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    JackW said:

    IanB2 said:

    LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.

    In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.

    Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?
    Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?

    The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.

    Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.
    The electorate is barely 53,000 there - so only 5,300 signatures or so are needed.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Andrew said:

    nichomar said:

    Is that absolute numbers? Interesting to know rate per 100,000 population

    Yep, that's quite important given the pretty hefty population growth. Per cap homicide rate is now half what it was 15 years ago:

    https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/2587/production/_104970690_per_hundred_thousand-nc.png



    And half of New York and a lot lower than Washington. Best not forget the debate started because of trump demonizing Kahn based on a Katie Hopkins tweet!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    justin124 said:

    Mike has rather overlooked the December 2016 Richmond by election as a farly recent example of the LibDems being the clear challenger. I make the Government cum DUP majority to be 5 currently , but more crucial than what happens at Brecon & Radnor is surely how many Tory MPs resign the Whip in response to Johnson's election. Grieve, Greening and Lee come to mind and there may well be others . That should be sufficient to topple the Government.

    I suspect none will resign the whip but will use swapping parties as leverage to use to block any progress on Brexit.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    TGOHF said:

    I suspect none will resign the whip but will use swapping parties as leverage to use to block any progress on Brexit.

    For a moment I thought you'd written 'will use wife swapping parties as leverage' and was wondering what special info you had.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2019
    kle4 said:

    isam said:


    The Remainer hardcore will do something to find illegitimacy with any Brexit Party or Leave win. They love a petition and a march.

    But that's just it, it is not as simple as 'doing something' to find illegitimacy. If they are not convicted of a crime and sentenced to less than 12 months in prison, or convicted of any expenses offence, or suspended from the House of Commons for a set period, none of which are entirely under the control of the 'remainer hardcore' then they cannot do anything short of changing legislation.

    I get being aggrieved by how many have reacted to the referendum, but it is just simply not the case that MPs can so simply decide they don't like Brexit MPs and so will find a way to recall them. You're essentially already getting worked up and righteously angry about something that hasn't happened, and cannot happen in the way you think anyway. Perhaps be angry at things actually happening.

    For one thing people can stand in any recall by-election, so anyone turfed out for a flimsy reason, eg just because some dislike them, would get back in.
    I am angry at the things happening, things I didn’t believe our HofC were capable of. So I am comfortable with thinking that any success by a Leave inclined party will have to go through the courts, subject to petitions & marches, or be scrutinised beyond reason by the Remain leaning establishment and their followers.
  • Listening to Rory The Tory on the Farage LBC show, a sentence I never thought I'd type.

    Notice Harry Cole seems to be talking him up on Twitter this morning, which is an interesting shift.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    TGOHF said:

    I suspect none will resign the whip but will use swapping parties as leverage to use to block any progress on Brexit.

    For a moment I thought you'd written 'will use wife swapping parties as leverage' and was wondering what special info you had.
    I’m not sure what “use swapping parties” means unless it’s defections
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    It never began for him.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited June 2019

    Rory will not serve under Boris he says on Marr.

    Poor judgment that.
    On the contrary. If Boris implodes which must be strong favourite Rory will be one of the very few Tories left with his integrity intact. And he's good! He doesn't look it but flares looked stupid till they didn't.

    I think Rory might win. From what I've seen of Boris he's unimpressive. I'd be surprised if he survives four weeks of scrutiny.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2019

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Trump skewering Khan on violence again and Khan still has no fucking clue. Honestly if the lib Dems put up a candidate that isn't Chuka I'll vote for them. I'll never vote for the racist, Bailey.

    Homicide is sharply down in London this year. But don’t let facts get in your way.
    Really? There’s a lot of press attention on it so assumed it was up (presumably they are slicing and dicing [sick] to focus on teenage knife killings or something]

    Do you have a link?
    The last two sentences of this link:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-48646922
    It’s down this year from a ten year high in 2018

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/dec/12/london-homicides-now-highest-in-a-year-for-a-decade
    The long term trend remains, I believe, down. It was somewhat distorted by the mass locking up of young scrotes in the wake of the 2011 riots. With their release and the arrival of a new generation of young scrotes, there’s been a reversion to the long term trend.

    To be clear, I don’t think politicians of any stripe have much to do with the trend in crime.
    Maybe a coincidence, but the numbers were a lot worse under Livingstone than Boris, and seem to have risen since Khan took over

    Bit unfair to Ken that really


    Looking at that graph Khan "has" the lowest average of the 3 mayors to date. The idea the Mayor has significant control over the murder rate is quite strange. The cheapest and quickest way to reduce knife crime would be stop talking so much about it. The sensationalist media coverage will have led to a normalisation effect, which is followed by more and more teenagers carrying knives in a foolish attempt at self preservation.
    Haha that’s an amazing stat! The other two saw it lowered, Khan has seen it rise, but he has the lowest average!!! 🤣😂🤣 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻


    Three people go to weightwatchers, the first starts off at 20 stone and ends up 15, the second starts at 15 and gets to 10, the third starts at 10 and ends up 12, and you’d say the third did best?

    I don’t know if he’s to blame or the others are to be congratulated, or it just happens. I disagree it’s media coverage to blame.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    Sean_F said:

    nichomar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Trump skewering Khan on violence again and Khan still has no fucking clue. Honestly if the lib Dems put up a candidate that isn't Chuka I'll vote for them. I'll never vote for the racist, Bailey.

    Homicide is sharply down in London this year. But don’t let facts get in your way.
    London not even in top 50 of murder cities, US have four, maybe he should look closer to home.
    Even the US is not that murderous.

    OTOH, the murder rates in Latin America and the Caribbean are horrendous.
    Should be comparing America to other developed countries.

    I doubt their figures look so good in that case.
  • Whatever happens, Stewart has come a very long way in hardly any time at all.

    Bodes well for him.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Roger said:

    Rory will not serve under Boris he says on Marr.

    Poor judgment that.
    On the contrary. If Boris implodes which must be strong favourite Rory will be one of the very few Tories left with his integrity intact. And he's good! He doesn't look it but flares looked stupid till they didn't.

    I think Rory might win. From what I've seen of Boris he's unimpressive. I'd be surprised if he survives four weeks of scrutiny.
    Rory now 2nd fav.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    edited June 2019
    Roger said:

    Rory will not serve under Boris he says on Marr.

    Poor judgment that.
    On the contrary. If Boris implodes which must be strong favourite Rory will be one of the very few Tories left with his integrity intact. And he's good! He doesn't look it but flares looked stupid till they didn't.

    I think Rory might win. From what I've seen of Boris he's unimpressive. I'd be surprised if he survives four weeks of scrutiny.
    Boris remains the candidate most likely to spectacularly implode, especially if it looks like he's losing the momentum. He has little to no self-control.

    Rory Stewart was very self composed when talking to Farage there, he's interesting. Would like to see him make it through the next ballot and go into the Tuesday debate.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    nico67 said:

    If you want someone to hold Johnson to account in the debates then Stewart is the only one who will do that .

    The rest will all be arse licking Bozo to get a cabinet job .

    Gove could if he wanted to. But you are probably right - he would do a Granita instead to get a big job.

    So c'mon Rory! Take the charlatan down! 👊
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, compare how many know who Boris is to how many know who Rory is. That recognition has an effect. Boris might still be ahead, even if Rory were better known, but we don't know either way.

    I think Stewart is the only candidate who could challenge Boris for appeal in Scotland yes and indeed Rory already polls better in Scotland than in England.

    What is clear however is Hunt does terribly in Scotland, the Foreign Secretary leading the Tories to just 19%, even Gove and Raab do better in Scotland than Hunt does (albeit the former helped by his Scottish roots)
    Scots are racist?
    No but they like their own e.g. Brown won a landslide in Scotland in 2010 despite losing power nationally
    They are not racist... but they prefer someone of their own race?

    Umm...
    Aside from the peurile notion that the Scots are a 'race', any reason that Scots didn't show much of a preference for those fine examples of the Scotch race, IDS, Cameron and Blair?
    Cameron and Blair were nominally Scottish but very much perceived as English.

    IDS... well they say that blood is thicker than water... and IDS is thicker than blood...
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    edited June 2019
    What will Tory anti No Deal Remainers do in the second ballot?

    In the first ballot, I suspect many of them voted for Johnson because you can't trust him so he was likely to renege on his No Deal position. Better Johnson than Raab or some other hard-liner who might keep their word.

    Now Johnson is the most hard-liner left in the race. Hunt and Gove, though reluctant no-dealers, are both prepared to ask for a short extension. Rory will not countenance a No Deal and will take as long as it takes to get the WDA through parliament.

    I can see a lot of Tory Remainer MPs switching from Johnson to Rory in the second ballot. Johnson's total might actually reduce and Rory will get his 33 easily. That's my prediction.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    nunuone said:


    I doubt their figures look so good in that case.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate

    USA 5.35
    Canada 1.68
    France 1.35
    UK 1.2ish (E&W vs Scotland figures)
    Germany 1.18
    Italy 0.67
    Spain 0.63
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Oh gawwddddd...is this like when some weirdo's formed the Ed Miliband fan club?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Brexit aside - if Rory becomes leader and advocates a movement away from our present system and towards sortition, I'll vote Tory (something I've never done in my life).
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, compare how many know who Boris is to how many know who Rory is. That recognition has an effect. Boris might still be ahead, even if Rory were better known, but we don't know either way.

    I think Stewart is the only candidate who could challenge Boris for appeal in Scotland yes and indeed Rory already polls better in Scotland than in England.

    What is clear however is Hunt does terribly in Scotland, the Foreign Secretary leading the Tories to just 19%, even Gove and Raab do better in Scotland than Hunt does (albeit the former helped by his Scottish roots)
    Scots are racist?
    No but they like their own e.g. Brown won a landslide in Scotland in 2010 despite losing power nationally
    They are not racist... but they prefer someone of their own race?

    Umm...
    Aside from the peurile notion that the Scots are a 'race', any reason that Scots didn't show much of a preference for those fine examples of the Scotch race, IDS, Cameron and Blair?
    Cameron and Blair were nominally Scottish but very much perceived as English.

    IDS... well they say that blood is thicker than water... and IDS is thicker than blood...
    You say that yet he comes over as articulate, coherent and cogent when I hear him. I think you've bought into groupthink.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2019
    Typical hyperbolic Observer 😊


  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884
    edited June 2019

    Oh gawwddddd...is this like when some weirdo's formed the Ed Miliband fan club?
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/11/milifan-prime-minister-ed-miliband

    "I’ll always be a Milifan. Ed was the best prime minister we never had"
    - Abby Tomlinson
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Urqhart, ha, that was my thought too.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Barnesian said:

    What will Tory anti No Deal Remainers do in the second ballot?

    In the first ballot, I suspect many of them voted for Johnson because you can't trust him so he was likely to renege on his No Deal position. Better Johnson than Raab or some other hard-liner who might keep their word.

    Now Johnson is the most hard-liner left in the race. Hunt and Gove, though reluctant no-dealers, are both prepared to ask for a short extension. Rory will not countenance a No Deal and will take as long as it takes to get the WDA through parliament.

    I can see a lot of Tory Remainer MPs switching from Johnson to Rory in the second ballot. Johnson's total might actually reduce and Rory will get his 33 easily. That's my prediction.

    I think Rory said that if the EU refused an extension he would support No Deal rather than Revoke.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    isam said:

    Typical hyperbolic Observer 😊


    Good to see the Grauardian remaining objective.....I seemed to remember they wrote similar things about the prospect of Boris becoming London Mayor.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884
    By-elections.... must have by-elections...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited June 2019

    By-elections.... must have by-elections...

    I would be happy to go back to a time when the biggest scandals were the prospect of Greggs baked goods being taxed and who borrowed whose horse.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    Chris said:

    Barnesian said:

    What will Tory anti No Deal Remainers do in the second ballot?

    In the first ballot, I suspect many of them voted for Johnson because you can't trust him so he was likely to renege on his No Deal position. Better Johnson than Raab or some other hard-liner who might keep their word.

    Now Johnson is the most hard-liner left in the race. Hunt and Gove, though reluctant no-dealers, are both prepared to ask for a short extension. Rory will not countenance a No Deal and will take as long as it takes to get the WDA through parliament.

    I can see a lot of Tory Remainer MPs switching from Johnson to Rory in the second ballot. Johnson's total might actually reduce and Rory will get his 33 easily. That's my prediction.

    I think Rory said that if the EU refused an extension he would support No Deal rather than Revoke.
    Do you a link to that? I know he has been asked that question but I thought he dodged it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    geoffw said:

    Charles said:

    Cameron and Blair were nominally Scottish but very much perceived as English.

    IDS... well they say that blood is thicker than water... and IDS is thicker than blood...

    You say that yet he comes over as articulate, coherent and cogent when I hear him. I think you've bought into groupthink.
    https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/905911364375506949
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    isam said:

    Typical hyperbolic Observer 😊


    Good to see the Grauardian remaining objective.....I seemed to remember they wrote similar things about the prospect of Boris becoming London Mayor.
    73% of Guardian readers voted Labour at the last general election, 12% voted LD and only 8% voted Tory according to YouGov.

    So no surprise there, the Guardian knows who its readers are


    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/06/13/how-britain-voted-2017-general-election
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,847
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Trump skewering Khan on violence again and Khan still has no fucking clue. Honestly if the lib Dems put up a candidate that isn't Chuka I'll vote for them. I'll never vote for the racist, Bailey.

    Homicide is sharply down in London this year. But don’t let facts get in your way.
    Really? There’s a lot of press attention on it so assumed it was up (presumably they are slicing and dicing [sick] to focus on teenage knife killings or something]

    Do you have a link?
    The last two sentences of this link:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-48646922
    It’s down this year from a ten year high in 2018

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/dec/12/london-homicides-now-highest-in-a-year-for-a-decade

    To be clear, I don’t think politicians of any stripe have much to do with the trend in crime.
    Maybe a coincidence, but the numbers were a lot worse under Livingstone than Boris, and seem to have risen since Khan took over

    Bit unfair to Ken that really


    Looking at that graph Khan "has" the lowest average of the 3 mayors to date. The idea the Mayor has significant control over the murder rate is quite strange. The cheapest and quickest way to reduce knife crime would be stop talking so much about it. The sensationalist media coverage will have led to a normalisation effect, which is followed by more and more teenagers carrying knives in a foolish attempt at self preservation.
    Haha that’s an amazing stat! The other two saw it lowered, Khan has seen it rise, but he has the lowest average!!! 🤣😂🤣 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻


    Three people go to weightwatchers, the first starts off at 20 stone and ends up 15, the second starts at 15 and gets to 10, the third starts at 10 and ends up 12, and you’d say the third did best?

    I don’t know if he’s to blame or the others are to be congratulated, or it just happens. I disagree it’s media coverage to blame.
    As I said I do not think the mayors have much influence over the numbers. Most people who carry a knife do it for perceived self defence. It should be fairly obvious the more that they believe other people are carrying, the more they will also carry. Once you are carrying if you get in a fight it changes from a potential fist fight to potential murder. I think it is self evident the more the media hypes it up the higher the murder rate.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited June 2019

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, compare how many know who Boris is to how many know who Rory is. That recognition has an effect. Boris might still be ahead, even if Rory were better known, but we don't know either way.

    I think Stewart is the only candidate who could challenge Boris for appeal in Scotland yes and indeed Rory already polls better in Scotland than in England.

    What is clear however is Hunt does terribly in Scotland, the Foreign Secretary leading the Tories to just 19%, even Gove and Raab do better in Scotland than Hunt does (albeit the former helped by his Scottish roots)
    Scots are racist?
    No but they like their own e.g. Brown won a landslide in Scotland in 2010 despite losing power nationally
    They are not racist... but they prefer someone of their own race?

    Umm...
    Aside from the peurile notion that the Scots are a 'race', any reason that Scots didn't show much of a preference for those fine examples of the Scotch race, IDS, Cameron and Blair?
    Please don't forget Kinnock. We Welsh refuse to take responsibility for that money-grabbing clan.

    "Recorded in the spellings of Kynoch, Kinnoch, Kinnach, and Kinnock, this is an ancient Scottish surname. As Kynoch it has long been associated with the finest of Scottish knitwear ..., However spelt the surname originates from the pre 8th century Gaelic 'Cainnech', the base form also being found in such clan names as Kennedy. The translation is 'hard head' from the pre 7th century 'ceann' meaning head and 'eidigh', hard or possibly armoured, as in wearing a helmet, at a time when few could afford such luxuries ... Carried by several early Gaelic kings both in Scotland and Ireland, the 'Cainnech' was clearly considered complimentary or it could hardly have survived over so many centuries. The early surname recordings [are] taken from surviving Scottish rolls, charters, and registers of the post medieval period."
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited June 2019



    As I said I do not think the mayors have much influence over the numbers. Most people who carry a knife do it for perceived self defence. It should be fairly obvious the more that they believe other people are carrying, the more they will also carry. Once you are carrying if you get in a fight it changes from a potential fist fight to potential murder. I think it is self evident the more the media hypes it up the higher the murder rate.

    There is also the impact of social media. 15 years ago if you got attacked, basically nobody saw it and only your immediate circle of friends would know about it.

    Now everybody has a camera phone (and the trend of wanting to film violence), all the kids will see these attacks.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019
    Barnesian said:

    What will Tory anti No Deal Remainers do in the second ballot?

    In the first ballot, I suspect many of them voted for Johnson because you can't trust him so he was likely to renege on his No Deal position. Better Johnson than Raab or some other hard-liner who might keep their word.

    Now Johnson is the most hard-liner left in the race. Hunt and Gove, though reluctant no-dealers, are both prepared to ask for a short extension. Rory will not countenance a No Deal and will take as long as it takes to get the WDA through parliament.

    I can see a lot of Tory Remainer MPs switching from Johnson to Rory in the second ballot. Johnson's total might actually reduce and Rory will get his 33 easily. That's my prediction.

    I think you might be right, I can now see a final 3 of Boris, Gove and Rory with Rory winning over enough Remainers to knock out Hunt on Wednesday or Thursday lunchtime
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, compare how many know who Boris is to how many know who Rory is. That recognition has an effect. Boris might still be ahead, even if Rory were better known, but we don't know either way.

    I think Stewart is the only candidate who could challenge Boris for appeal in Scotland yes and indeed Rory already polls better in Scotland than in England.

    What is clear however is Hunt does terribly in Scotland, the Foreign Secretary leading the Tories to just 19%, even Gove and Raab do better in Scotland than Hunt does (albeit the former helped by his Scottish roots)
    Scots are racist?
    No but they like their own e.g. Brown won a landslide in Scotland in 2010 despite losing power nationally
    They are not racist... but they prefer someone of their own race?

    Umm...
    Aside from the peurile notion that the Scots are a 'race', any reason that Scots didn't show much of a preference for those fine examples of the Scotch race, IDS, Cameron and Blair?
    Please don't forget Kinnock. We Welsh refuse to take responsibility for that money-grabbing clan.
    [..]
    Will you take responsibility for William Wallace? ;)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    The people wondering whether the Peterborough by election was crooked, ‘Democracy Volunteers’

    https://democracyvolunteers.org/

    Are they an impartial group?

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Barnesian said:

    What will Tory anti No Deal Remainers do in the second ballot?

    In the first ballot, I suspect many of them voted for Johnson because you can't trust him so he was likely to renege on his No Deal position. Better Johnson than Raab or some other hard-liner who might keep their word.

    Now Johnson is the most hard-liner left in the race. Hunt and Gove, though reluctant no-dealers, are both prepared to ask for a short extension. Rory will not countenance a No Deal and will take as long as it takes to get the WDA through parliament.

    I can see a lot of Tory Remainer MPs switching from Johnson to Rory in the second ballot. Johnson's total might actually reduce and Rory will get his 33 easily. That's my prediction.

    I'd have thought any remainer voting for Johnson is either kidding themselves that he wont no deal, or thinks that whatever his choices hes the best chance of propping up the Tory vote. I dont see why those people would switch.

    But fair enough for a bold prediction.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    nichomar said:

    Can you imagine if in a few weeks time Com Res had to apologize for a mistake in their data set about the impact of possible leader on voting intentions which negated the already very dubious results.

    No, as they largely mirror what YouGov found
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited June 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    What will Tory anti No Deal Remainers do in the second ballot?

    In the first ballot, I suspect many of them voted for Johnson because you can't trust him so he was likely to renege on his No Deal position. Better Johnson than Raab or some other hard-liner who might keep their word.

    Now Johnson is the most hard-liner left in the race. Hunt and Gove, though reluctant no-dealers, are both prepared to ask for a short extension. Rory will not countenance a No Deal and will take as long as it takes to get the WDA through parliament.

    I can see a lot of Tory Remainer MPs switching from Johnson to Rory in the second ballot. Johnson's total might actually reduce and Rory will get his 33 easily. That's my prediction.

    I think you might be right, I can now see a final 3 of Boris, Gove and Rory with Rory winning over enough Remainers to knock out Hunt on Wednesday or Thursday lunchtime
    ..and going on to be prime minister next time round, after boris's premiership has run its predictable course.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    isam said:

    The people wondering whether the Peterborough by election was crooked, ‘Democracy Volunteers’

    https://democracyvolunteers.org/

    Are they an impartial group?

    Dunno. Had funding from Joseph Rowntree charity, so must have been some due diligence done.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    What will Tory anti No Deal Remainers do in the second ballot?

    In the first ballot, I suspect many of them voted for Johnson because you can't trust him so he was likely to renege on his No Deal position. Better Johnson than Raab or some other hard-liner who might keep their word.

    Now Johnson is the most hard-liner left in the race. Hunt and Gove, though reluctant no-dealers, are both prepared to ask for a short extension. Rory will not countenance a No Deal and will take as long as it takes to get the WDA through parliament.

    I can see a lot of Tory Remainer MPs switching from Johnson to Rory in the second ballot. Johnson's total might actually reduce and Rory will get his 33 easily. That's my prediction.

    I think you might be right, I can now see a final 3 of Boris, Gove and Rory with Rory winning over enough Remainers to knock out Hunt on Wednesday or Thursday lunchtime
    ..and going on to be prime minister next time round, after boris's premiership has run its predictable course.
    I would certainly have no problem with Rory succeeding Boris after a decade in power in which Boris has comfortably been re-elected and delivered a successful Brexit and a global free trading Britain with a FTA with the EU
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    What will Tory anti No Deal Remainers do in the second ballot?

    In the first ballot, I suspect many of them voted for Johnson because you can't trust him so he was likely to renege on his No Deal position. Better Johnson than Raab or some other hard-liner who might keep their word.

    Now Johnson is the most hard-liner left in the race. Hunt and Gove, though reluctant no-dealers, are both prepared to ask for a short extension. Rory will not countenance a No Deal and will take as long as it takes to get the WDA through parliament.

    I can see a lot of Tory Remainer MPs switching from Johnson to Rory in the second ballot. Johnson's total might actually reduce and Rory will get his 33 easily. That's my prediction.

    I think you might be right, I can now see a final 3 of Boris, Gove and Rory with Rory winning over enough Remainers to knock out Hunt on Wednesday or Thursday lunchtime
    ..and going on to be prime minister next time round, after boris's premiership has run its predictable course.
    I would certainly have no problem with Rory succeeding Boris after a decade in power in which Boris has comfortably been re-elected and delivered a successful Brexit and a global free trading Britain with a FTA with the EU
    I fear you'll find yourself having some problems with the next few years, in that case ;.)
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, compare how many know who Boris is to how many know who Rory is. That recognition has an effect. Boris might still be ahead, even if Rory were better known, but we don't know either way.

    I think Stewart is the only candidate who could challenge Boris for appeal in Scotland yes and indeed Rory already polls better in Scotland than in England.

    What is clear however is Hunt does terribly in Scotland, the Foreign Secretary leading the Tories to just 19%, even Gove and Raab do better in Scotland than Hunt does (albeit the former helped by his Scottish roots)
    Scots are racist?
    No but they like their own e.g. Brown won a landslide in Scotland in 2010 despite losing power nationally
    They are not racist... but they prefer someone of their own race?

    Umm...
    Aside from the peurile notion that the Scots are a 'race', any reason that Scots didn't show much of a preference for those fine examples of the Scotch race, IDS, Cameron and Blair?
    Please don't forget Kinnock. We Welsh refuse to take responsibility for that money-grabbing clan.
    [..]
    Will you take responsibility for William Wallace? ;)
    Assuredly. Wallace means Welshman. Of course, there were Cymric-speaking parts of Scotland, long, long ago.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    HYUFD said:

    I would certainly have no problem with Rory succeeding Boris after a decade in power in which Boris has comfortably been re-elected and delivered a successful Brexit and a global free trading Britain with a FTA with the EU

    Presumably handing over 30 Scottish seats after Boris sees off the SNP? :lol:
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, compare how many know who Boris is to how many know who Rory is. That recognition has an effect. Boris might still be ahead, even if Rory were better known, but we don't know either way.

    I think Stewart is the only candidate who could challenge Boris for appeal in Scotland yes and indeed Rory already polls better in Scotland than in England.

    What is clear however is Hunt does terribly in Scotland, the Foreign Secretary leading the Tories to just 19%, even Gove and Raab do better in Scotland than Hunt does (albeit the former helped by his Scottish roots)
    Scots are racist?
    No but they like their own e.g. Brown won a landslide in Scotland in 2010 despite losing power nationally
    They are not racist... but they prefer someone of their own race?

    Umm...
    Aside from the peurile notion that the Scots are a 'race', any reason that Scots didn't show much of a preference for those fine examples of the Scotch race, IDS, Cameron and Blair?
    Please don't forget Kinnock. We Welsh refuse to take responsibility for that money-grabbing clan.
    [..]
    Will you take responsibility for William Wallace? ;)
    Nobody should be forced to take responsibility for Braveheart. I think it's fair to say Mel Gibson blue it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Does Rory The Tory really come across as a leader though? I like Rory, he ain't no dum dum, he speaks rationally and thoughtfully, but does he have the leadership x-factor (not just for Tory supporters, but wider going out into the world representing the UK) ?

    Seems to me, it is more that he would make a very capable senior minister, say Foreign Secretary.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    What will Tory anti No Deal Remainers do in the second ballot?

    In the first ballot, I suspect many of them voted for Johnson because you can't trust him so he was likely to renege on his No Deal position. Better Johnson than Raab or some other hard-liner who might keep their word.

    Now Johnson is the most hard-liner left in the race. Hunt and Gove, though reluctant no-dealers, are both prepared to ask for a short extension. Rory will not countenance a No Deal and will take as long as it takes to get the WDA through parliament.

    I can see a lot of Tory Remainer MPs switching from Johnson to Rory in the second ballot. Johnson's total might actually reduce and Rory will get his 33 easily. That's my prediction.

    I think you might be right, I can now see a final 3 of Boris, Gove and Rory with Rory winning over enough Remainers to knock out Hunt on Wednesday or Thursday lunchtime
    ..and going on to be prime minister next time round, after boris's premiership has run its predictable course.
    I would certainly have no problem with Rory succeeding Boris after a decade in power in which Boris has comfortably been re-elected and delivered a successful Brexit and a global free trading Britain with a FTA with the EU
    How come Michael Gove has hacked Hyufd's account while stoned?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019

    HYUFD said:

    I would certainly have no problem with Rory succeeding Boris after a decade in power in which Boris has comfortably been re-elected and delivered a successful Brexit and a global free trading Britain with a FTA with the EU

    Presumably handing over 30 Scottish seats after Boris sees off the SNP? :lol:
    Comres has the SNP on 30%, Boris led Tories on 28% in Scotland so not impossible!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Does Rory The Tory really come across as a leader though? I like Rory, he ain't no dum dum, he speaks rationally and thoughtfully, but does he have the leadership x-factor (not just for Tory supporters, but wider going out into the world representing the UK) ?

    Seems to me, it is more that he would make a very capable senior minister, say Foreign Secretary.

    Possibly not.

    Next question.

    Do any of the others?

    Ah, that's a no as well.

    In the country of the blind...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884
    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, compare how many know who Boris is to how many know who Rory is. That recognition has an effect. Boris might still be ahead, even if Rory were better known, but we don't know either way.

    I think Stewart is the only candidate who could challenge Boris for appeal in Scotland yes and indeed Rory already polls better in Scotland than in England.

    What is clear however is Hunt does terribly in Scotland, the Foreign Secretary leading the Tories to just 19%, even Gove and Raab do better in Scotland than Hunt does (albeit the former helped by his Scottish roots)
    Scots are racist?
    No but they like their own e.g. Brown won a landslide in Scotland in 2010 despite losing power nationally
    They are not racist... but they prefer someone of their own race?

    Umm...
    Aside from the peurile notion that the Scots are a 'race', any reason that Scots didn't show much of a preference for those fine examples of the Scotch race, IDS, Cameron and Blair?
    Please don't forget Kinnock. We Welsh refuse to take responsibility for that money-grabbing clan.
    [..]
    Will you take responsibility for William Wallace? ;)
    Nobody should be forced to take responsibility for Braveheart. I think it's fair to say Mel Gibson blue it.
    Woad, hang on, there!
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited June 2019

    Does Rory The Tory really come across as a leader though? I like Rory, he ain't no dum dum, he speaks rationally and thoughtfully, but does he have the leadership x-factor (not just for Tory supporters, but wider going out into the world representing the UK) ?

    Seems to me, it is more that he would make a very capable senior minister, say Foreign Secretary.

    He looks like what Cameron wanted to be, to me. A celto-english consensus Tory with gentlemanly manners, the kind of background that figured disproportionately in the old Tory wets, and also figures disproportionately in the national and international imagination of 'the British' ; James Bond was a written as just such a character, by a celto-english patrician.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, compare how many know who Boris is to how many know who Rory is. That recognition has an effect. Boris might still be ahead, even if Rory were better known, but we don't know either way.

    I think Stewart is the only candidate who could challenge Boris for appeal in Scotland yes and indeed Rory already polls better in Scotland than in England.

    What is clear however is Hunt does terribly in Scotland, the Foreign Secretary leading the Tories to just 19%, even Gove and Raab do better in Scotland than Hunt does (albeit the former helped by his Scottish roots)
    Scots are racist?
    No but they like their own e.g. Brown won a landslide in Scotland in 2010 despite losing power nationally
    They are not racist... but they prefer someone of their own race?

    Umm...
    Aside from the peurile notion that the Scots are a 'race', any reason that Scots didn't show much of a preference for those fine examples of the Scotch race, IDS, Cameron and Blair?
    Please don't forget Kinnock. We Welsh refuse to take responsibility for that money-grabbing clan.
    [..]
    Will you take responsibility for William Wallace? ;)
    Nobody should be forced to take responsibility for Braveheart. I think it's fair to say Mel Gibson blue it.
    Woad, hang on, there!
    I'm just not feeling a Byrne from that one.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    HYUFD said:

    I would certainly have no problem with Rory succeeding Boris after a decade in power in which Boris has comfortably been re-elected and delivered a successful Brexit and a global free trading Britain with a FTA with the EU

    Presumably handing over 30 Scottish seats after Boris sees off the SNP? :lol:
    With all these species dying out it’ll be nice to add flying pigs to the menagerie.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Borough, party members choosing a party member seems fairly standard, to be honest. The only other way is for MPs to decide (which might happen anyway).

    Would people complain about the membership demographics if they were skewed the other way?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    The Left shooting themselves in the foot over last Lab government because they hate Blair/Brown more than they hate the Tories:

    https://twitter.com/PaulNolandhm/status/1140197063096975360
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Barnesian said:

    Chris said:

    Barnesian said:

    What will Tory anti No Deal Remainers do in the second ballot?

    In the first ballot, I suspect many of them voted for Johnson because you can't trust him so he was likely to renege on his No Deal position. Better Johnson than Raab or some other hard-liner who might keep their word.

    Now Johnson is the most hard-liner left in the race. Hunt and Gove, though reluctant no-dealers, are both prepared to ask for a short extension. Rory will not countenance a No Deal and will take as long as it takes to get the WDA through parliament.

    I can see a lot of Tory Remainer MPs switching from Johnson to Rory in the second ballot. Johnson's total might actually reduce and Rory will get his 33 easily. That's my prediction.

    I think Rory said that if the EU refused an extension he would support No Deal rather than Revoke.
    Do you a link to that? I know he has been asked that question but I thought he dodged it.
    No, sorry, I can't find it.

    Someone posted a link here saying he would choose No Deal over Revoke. I was surprised, but when I listened to it, he was talking about what he would do if the EU refused an extension. He said something about patriotism kicking in, if I remember correctly. The only daft thing I've heard him say so far.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    isam said:

    kle4 said:

    isam said:


    The Remainer hardcore will do something to find illegitimacy with any Brexit Party or Leave win. They love a petition and a march.

    But that's just it, it is not as simple as 'doing something' to find illegitimacy. If they are not convicted of a crime and sentenced to less than 12 months in prison, or convicted of any expenses offence, or suspended from the House of Commons for a set period, none of which are entirely under the control of the 'remainer hardcore' then they cannot do anything short of changing legislation.

    I get being aggrieved by how many have reacted to the referendum, but it is just simply not the case that MPs can so simply decide they don't like Brexit MPs and so will find a way to recall them. You're essentially already getting worked up and righteously angry about something that hasn't happened, and cannot happen in the way you think anyway. Perhaps be angry at things actually happening.

    For one thing people can stand in any recall by-election, so anyone turfed out for a flimsy reason, eg just because some dislike them, would get back in.
    I am angry at the things happening, things I didn’t believe our HofC were capable of. So I am comfortable with thinking that any success by a Leave inclined party will have to go through the courts, subject to petitions & marches, or be scrutinised beyond reason by the Remain leaning establishment and their followers.
    Sounds like there might be something up in Peterborough. Police investigating five separate complaints about conduct observed during the by-election.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7146673/Farage-lashes-observers-warn-Labours-election-win-Peterborough.html
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    What will Tory anti No Deal Remainers do in the second ballot?

    In the first ballot, I suspect many of them voted for Johnson because you can't trust him so he was likely to renege on his No Deal position. Better Johnson than Raab or some other hard-liner who might keep their word.

    Now Johnson is the most hard-liner left in the race. Hunt and Gove, though reluctant no-dealers, are both prepared to ask for a short extension. Rory will not countenance a No Deal and will take as long as it takes to get the WDA through parliament.

    I can see a lot of Tory Remainer MPs switching from Johnson to Rory in the second ballot. Johnson's total might actually reduce and Rory will get his 33 easily. That's my prediction.

    I think you might be right, I can now see a final 3 of Boris, Gove and Rory with Rory winning over enough Remainers to knock out Hunt on Wednesday or Thursday lunchtime
    ..and going on to be prime minister next time round, after boris's premiership has run its predictable course.
    I would certainly have no problem with Rory succeeding Boris after a decade in power in which Boris has comfortably been re-elected and delivered a successful Brexit and a global free trading Britain with a FTA with the EU
    I would certainly have no problem with white wine coming out of the cold tap and red wine out of the hot.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    The Left shooting themselves in the foot over last Lab government because they hate Blair/Brown more than they hate the Tories:

    https://twitter.com/PaulNolandhm/status/1140197063096975360

    Whether Labour's people like it or not, the fact remains that we were left uniquely and grossly exposed to worldwide recession due to the laziness and complacency of government and regulators coupled with an unfunded spending spree immediately beforehand.

    Admitting that isn't going to change the narrative. Refusing to admit it does however make them look like fools.
  • crandlescrandles Posts: 91
    The last thing the HofC wants is no deal Brexit with inadequate preparation.

    Rather a slim chance, but suppose new tory leader was unable to command confidence of the house and neither could Corbyn leading to new general election. If there was no majority or coalition that could be formed, do we crash out with inadequate preparation and no-one has authority to send A50 revocation letter to prevent this?

    Should T May send in or seek HofC approval for sending a conditional A50 revocation letter if and only if these circumstances happen?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    What will Tory anti No Deal Remainers do in the second ballot?

    In the first ballot, I suspect many of them voted for Johnson because you can't trust him so he was likely to renege on his No Deal position. Better Johnson than Raab or some other hard-liner who might keep their word.

    Now Johnson is the most hard-liner left in the race. Hunt and Gove, though reluctant no-dealers, are both prepared to ask for a short extension. Rory will not countenance a No Deal and will take as long as it takes to get the WDA through parliament.

    I can see a lot of Tory Remainer MPs switching from Johnson to Rory in the second ballot. Johnson's total might actually reduce and Rory will get his 33 easily. That's my prediction.

    I think you might be right, I can now see a final 3 of Boris, Gove and Rory with Rory winning over enough Remainers to knock out Hunt on Wednesday or Thursday lunchtime
    ..and going on to be prime minister next time round, after boris's premiership has run its predictable course.
    Yep, Rory is aiming to be the next but one Tory leader - probably in January, possibly even earlier.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884

    The Left shooting themselves in the foot over last Lab government because they hate Blair/Brown more than they hate the Tories:

    https://twitter.com/PaulNolandhm/status/1140197063096975360

    Osborne wasn't chancellor in 2008!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. HYUFD, compare how many know who Boris is to how many know who Rory is. That recognition has an effect. Boris might still be ahead, even if Rory were better known, but we don't know either way.

    I think Stewart is the only candidate who could challenge Boris for appeal in Scotland yes and indeed Rory already polls better in Scotland than in England.

    What is clear however is Hunt does terribly in Scotland, the Foreign Secretary leading the Tories to just 19%, even Gove and Raab do better in Scotland than Hunt does (albeit the former helped by his Scottish roots)
    Scots are racist?
    No but they like their own e.g. Brown won a landslide in Scotland in 2010 despite losing power nationally
    They are not racist... but they prefer someone of their own race?

    Umm...
    Aside from the peurile notion that the Scots are a 'race', any reason that Scots didn't show much of a preference for those fine examples of the Scotch race, IDS, Cameron and Blair?
    Please don't forget Kinnock. We Welsh refuse to take responsibility for that money-grabbing clan.
    [..]
    Will you take responsibility for William Wallace? ;)
    Nobody should be forced to take responsibility for Braveheart. I think it's fair to say Mel Gibson blue it.
    Woad, hang on, there!
    I'm just not feeling a Byrne from that one.
    Not even a Bannock-byrne?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Listening to Rory The Tory on the Farage LBC show, a sentence I never thought I'd type.

    Notice Harry Cole seems to be talking him up on Twitter this morning, which is an interesting shift.

    Did Farage soft pedal? I have a notion he wouldn’t mind a Remainer as Tory leader
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    isam said:

    The people wondering whether the Peterborough by election was crooked, ‘Democracy Volunteers’

    https://democracyvolunteers.org/

    Are they an impartial group?

    Good question. My initial thought was that they were an NGO of official observers, but now I’m not so sure. Note that no other papers have followed the MoS on this story, although the complaints to the police are genuine.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    The "grandees" who were asking for a coronation seem to have stirred up something of a hornets nest.

    While a few of the less intelligent Scottish Tories- Thomson, Clark,- have backed Johnson, Ruth Davidson is going to have a real headache if he won. haky.

    A Boris lead in the opinion polls would go the way of the Ullapool-Inverness ferry.

    Ty
    There is a ridiculous level of focus on hypothetical match-ups.

    Davidson's worry isn't about the s.
    No it is a fact that Boris gets the Tories to a higher voteshare in Scotland than any other Tory leadership candidate.

    I know it does not fit diehard Remainers whinges about how Boris is less popular than Edward IInd in Scotland but tough those are the facts.


    The average 2017 Scottish Tory was not some young urban pro independence social liberal but actually a pensioner living in a rural area or market town and a social conservative and very likely a Leave voter and many of them are now voting Brexit Party.

    So Boris boosts the Tories vote in Scotlsnd just as he does in the rest of the UK

    How can it be a "fact" when it hasn't been tested, and never will, at least in this universe?
    We know the Tories were 4th in the European Parliament elections in Scotland behind the SNP, the Brexit Party and the LDs so a generic Tory will not do, Boris is is does)
    The conclusion is your opinion, not a fact at all.
    No it is a fact based on the polling and the rise of the Brexit Party in Scotland, just you dislike the facts
    Your comment exemplifies the problem with so many of your posts on here. There is no such thing as a "fact based on polling".

    Polling is merely an indication, subject to lots of caveats and a significant degree of error. Polling about leaders who aren't even in post is even more flaky, and can never be proven right or wrong since we will never get to compare different leaders' performances in the same election. How a leader performs in office can be very different from what people may be expecting, even if they have heard of the person to begin with.
    What it does show though is that the argument of some on here that the Tories face guaranteed disaster in Scotland under Boris is complete rubbish and I will continue to make that point
    We will see the proof of the pudding is in the eating
This discussion has been closed.