LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.
Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?
Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.
So fraud is a lesser offence than speeding in your eyes.
The recall act specifically references falsifying expense claims as one of the three automatic triggers of a recall, the Peterborough recall was for having been sentenced to a period in jail. Don’t forget the current MP can stand as a conservative if they and their party believe it was a minor offense.
This is a good account of the case and is more much serious than some posters on this thread have suggested.
It’s a reasonable summary but states exactly what most posters on the thread have said - he faked an invoice to claim expenses which had been properly incurred but that he had to split between two budgets.
The judge puts his finger on the most disturbing impact - that he chose to forge. Once a cheater always a cheater.
And he changed the nature of the expenditure from photos to furniture, because he had already claimed the maximum from the budget that covers photos. The expenditure may have been incurred, but the excess wasn't proper to claim and should have been paid for personally.
I hadn’t picked up on that nuance - I’d understood it was budgets from two different organisations. Clearly that is much more dodgy
You might be right - the Indy story Mike linked isn't clear but looking at the Guardian's report, it suggests he could have claimed the items under either the "start up" office budget (which he had all used) or the normal routine office costs budget. I'd think that framed photos for the wall were more "start up" than ongoing costs, but if the Guardian is right that they could be considered routine office costs, then he did have that option.
If he had been sensible he could have asked for two invoices in the first place. But it sounds like his expenses were in a horrendous mess and he had already had his IPSA card suspended until he sorted it out.
The "grandees" who were asking for a coronation seem to have stirred up something of a hornets nest.
While a few of the less intelligent Scottish Tories- Thomson, Clark,- have backed Johnson, Ruth Davidson is going to have a real headache if he won. If she doesn't create real distance between herself and Johnson then the party will lose everything they gained in 2017. Watch for the creation of a separate Scottish Tory party if BoJo gets it.
Its not just London that is shaky.
Comres has a Boris led Tories on 28% in Scotland, the same as 2017 as the Brexit Party vote goes back to the Tories north of the border in large part.
Though Rory Stewart is the only Tory candidate who does better in Scotland than he does across the UK, a Stewart led Tory Party would be on 21% in Scotland compared to 19% across the UK
A Boris lead in the opinion polls would go the way of the Ullapool-Inverness ferry.
That's to say, it would start well on a big stretch of open water, then the sides would narrow and when it was too late to turn round there would be reality looming in the form of hard rocks.
Once the ship was impaled on them, it would be left there for all time many miles from its destination while people pointed, and laughed at the stupidity of the captain for not knowing Loch Broom doesn't lead to Inverness.
I reckon she started with no deal as an option, but changed tack when she was fully briefed on the implications, both economic and specifically political (for the union). You could see the change in her attitude during the spring. If the ST is right she is now voting for Rory and may join the anti-no-dealers in Parliament.
Rory vs Boris has to be the final round. For one thing, it is the contest Boris probably fears most.
Wont he prefer Rory to Hunt? Rory is at the other end of the debate and less likely to get membership support than Hunt who is trying to chart a middle path.
Contemplating waving a big stick does not mean she ever waved it....
Waived, more like.....
Plenty of PB Tories were telling us at the time that she really would go for no deal, and those of us betting on no deal not happening would lose our money.
You’d think the 10% threshold should be reached. Two recalls in a calendar year would suggest this might become a thing.
Given the precedent of their refusal to accept the referendum result, if The Brexit Party ever won a seat I’d expect 10% of the constituents to instantly demand a recall every time
We got well into the early part of this year genuinely, genuinely not knowing whether May would extend or not. Look at PB from early March - very few claimed to actually know what was in May's mind. It was only after parliament 'blocked' No Deal that extension was finalised, and it was last minute. Her threat was definitely credible.
That’s not the only way he’s Continuity May. Avoiding scrutiny is the other way in which he’s simply May in trousers, though rather more scruffy than her.
The only candidate who gives the impression that he is interested in and likes the people of this country is Rory. That is almost certainly not enough to make him leader nor does it mean that he would be a good PM. But by comparison with so many other politicians it really stands out.
BRP and CON have a large difficulty that it really isn't obvious who the best anti LD vote is in the constituency. Probably Tory but it is near impossible to know for sure.
If there is a by election it is foolish to make any assumption about the outcome based on opinion polls.
1. It is a byelection (obviously) 2. It’s a wide spread, rural community making canvassing difficult and require boots on the ground. 3. Will require local candidate with knowledge of local issues 4. Will have little to do with the outcome of the Tory leadership outcome.
I don’t know the place so there will be other factors which give better reasons for predicting the result than using polls.
You’d think the 10% threshold should be reached. Two recalls in a calendar year would suggest this might become a thing.
Given the precedent of their refusal to accept the referendum result, if The Brexit Party ever won a seat I’d expect 10% of the constituents to instantly demand a recall every time
MPs can only be recalled in very limited circumstances.
Incidentally, I was wryly amused to see you citing opinion polls last night. Though the point you made was absolutely correct, and points to something important.
That’s not the only way he’s Continuity May. Avoiding scrutiny is the other way in which he’s simply May in trousers, though rather more scruffy than her.
The only candidate who gives the impression that he is interested in and likes the people of this country is Rory. That is almost certainly not enough to make him leader nor does it mean that he would be a good PM. But by comparison with so many other politicians it really stands out.
Boris also has a slightly weird sense of humour and a penchant for totally inappropriate remarks.
But I think it's a bit unfair to call him continuity May. May has some good points.
Six of the last nine polls have The Brexit Party in the lead. Does anyone really believe that if a snap election were called tomorrow, they would get most votes?
The "grandees" who were asking for a coronation seem to have stirred up something of a hornets nest.
While a few of the less intelligent Scottish Tories- Thomson, Clark,- have backed Johnson, Ruth Davidson is going to have a real headache if he won. If she doesn't create real distance between herself and Johnson then the party will lose everything they gained in 2017. Watch for the creation of a separate Scottish Tory party if BoJo gets it.
Its not just London that is shaky.
Comres has a Boris led Tories on 28% in Scotland, the same as 2017 as the Brexit Party vote goes back to the Tories north of the border in large part.
Though Rory Stewart is the only Tory candidate who does better in Scotland than he does across the UK, a Stewart led Tory Party would be on 21% in Scotland compared to 19% across the UK
A Boris lead in the opinion polls would go the way of the Ullapool-Inverness ferry.
That's to say, it would start well on a big stretch of open water, then the sides would narrow and when it was too late to turn round there would be reality looming in the form of hard rocks.
Once the ship was impaled on them, it would be left there for all time many miles from its destination while people pointed, and laughed at the stupidity of the captain for not knowing Loch Broom doesn't lead to Inverness.
Boris is the only Tory who gets the Tories back to 2017 levels in Scotland on that poll, all other candidates poll worse with a Hunt led Tories doing worst and falling to just 19% in Scotland ie 1997 levels.
Suggests Ruth Davidson should be more worried about a Hunt led Tories than a Boris led Tory Party
According to last night's Yougov the LDs would gain Brecon and Radnor from the Tories but in large part because of the split vote on the right between the Brexit Party and the Tories.
If Boris wins it could therefore be an early test of whether he can win back Brexit Party voters from the Tories
Pretty meaningless to project a national poll onto a by-election. By-election swings are nearly always an exaggerated version of the wider picture, and odd local circumstances apply.
For example, in this case there's an issue over whether - if it goes ahead - the sitting MP stands again. If so, there's an open question over whether he's seen as being somewhat unfairly pilloried over a technicality, or as being fundamentally dishonest enough to forge an invoice.
BRP and CON have a large difficulty that it really isn't obvious who the best anti LD vote is in the constituency. Probably Tory but it is near impossible to know for sure.
What kind of organisation does the BRP have in this large, rural Welsh seat?
If the BRP could not win Peterborough, then they certainly can't win B&R.
Six of the last nine polls have The Brexit Party in the lead. Does anyone really believe that if a snap election were called tomorrow, they would get most votes?
In truth, I would predict Lab 30 Tories 27 BXP 18 LD 16 after a short campaign - so not even close.
That’s not the only way he’s Continuity May. Avoiding scrutiny is the other way in which he’s simply May in trousers, though rather more scruffy than her.
The only candidate who gives the impression that he is interested in and likes the people of this country is Rory. That is almost certainly not enough to make him leader nor does it mean that he would be a good PM. But by comparison with so many other politicians it really stands out.
Boris also has a slightly weird sense of humour and a penchant for totally inappropriate remarks.
But I think it's a bit unfair to call him continuity May. May has some good points.
How long into a Boris premiership will it be before we start to look back at her time in office with nostalgia?
BRP and CON have a large difficulty that it really isn't obvious who the best anti LD vote is in the constituency. Probably Tory but it is near impossible to know for sure.
At the moment yes, if Boris as new PM gets a poll bounce and the Brexit Party vote largely collapses to the Tories it would clearly be the Tories
Six of the last nine polls have The Brexit Party in the lead. Does anyone really believe that if a snap election were called tomorrow, they would get most votes?
They would get a lot of votes. UKIP never polled in first in a Westminster poll in 2014 and they got more or less their expected vote share in 2015. The Brexit party would probably fade a bit in an election campaign but I see no reason to assume in a snap election they would get less than say 18% of the vote right now.
LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.
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Wis
What I'm more doubtful about is whether 5,000 people will consider this a hanging offence. Unlike Onasanya, he fessed up, and he gained nothing from it, and the voters in this seat do love to show their independence by doing the opposite of what's expected of them - moreover they hate being preached to by outsiders.
I would put the chances of a recall at 6-4 against.
(BTW, does anyone else find the hypocrisy of Ian Lavery on the subject of integrity to be truly nauseating given his um, interesting financial arrangements?)
LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.
In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.
Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?
Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?
The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.
Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.
I doubt if there are 100,000 people in a constituency where the largest town is Ystradgynlais (population 8,000). In fact the electorate is around 50,000 which means 5,000 signatures are required. Logistically, that seems feasible to me knowing the seat quite well.
What I'm more doubtful about is whether 5,000 people will consider this a hanging offence. Unlike Onasanya, he fessed up, and he gained nothing from it, and the voters in this seat do love to show their independence by doing the opposite of what's expected of them - moreover they hate being preached to by outsiders.
I would put the chances of a recall at 6-4 against.
(BTW, does anyone else find the hypocrisy of Ian Lavery on the subject of integrity to be truly nauseating given his um, interesting financial arrangements?)
Are you offering that 6-4 against the recall petition succeeding? I’d take £50 if you were.
If there is a by election it is foolish to make any assumption about the outcome based on opinion polls.
1. It is a byelection (obviously) 2. It’s a wide spread, rural community making canvassing difficult and require boots on the ground. 3. Will require local candidate with knowledge of local issues 4. Will have little to do with the outcome of the Tory leadership outcome.
I don’t know the place so there will be other factors which give better reasons for predicting the result than using polls.
The LibDem candidate will be their current leader in Wales, born in Wrexham, a Welsh speaker who fought Montgomery (or whatever it is called now) last time. And they've been door knocking for months.
The "grandees" who were asking for a coronation seem to have stirred up something of a hornets nest.
While a few of the less intelligent Scottish Tories- Thomson, Clark,- have backed Johnson, Ruth Davidson is going to have a real headache if he won. If she doesn't create real distance between herself and Johnson then the party will lose everything they gained in 2017. Watch for the creation of a separate Scottish Tory party if BoJo gets it.
Its not just London that is shaky.
Comres has a Boris led Tories on 28% in Scotland, the same as 2017 as the Brexit Party vote goes back to the Tories north of the border in large part.
Though Rory Stewart is the only Tory candidate who does better in Scotland than he does across the UK, a Stewart led Tory Party would be on 21% in Scotland compared to 19% across the UK
A Boris lead in the opinion polls would go the way of the Ullapool-Inverness ferry.
That's to say, it would start well on a big stretch of open water, then the sides would narrow and when it was too late to turn round there would be reality looming in the form of hard rocks.
Once the ship was impaled on them, it would be left there for all time many miles from its destination while people pointed, and laughed at the stupidity of the captain for not knowing Loch Broom doesn't lead to Inverness.
Boris is the only Tory who gets the Tories back to 2017 levels in Scotland on that poll, all other candidates poll worse with a Hunt led Tories doing worst and falling to just 19% in Scotland ie 1997 levels.
Suggests Ruth Davidson should be more worried about a Hunt led Tories than a Boris led Tory Party
There is a ridiculous level of focus on hypothetical match-ups.
Davidson's worry isn't about the first poll under the new leader. It's about the risk that the new leader says or does something as PM that mortally offends proud, centre-right Scots at some point within his first six months. And there's one candidate who is MUCH more likely to do that than the others.
That’s not the only way he’s Continuity May. Avoiding scrutiny is the other way in which he’s simply May in trousers, though rather more scruffy than her.
The only candidate who gives the impression that he is interested in and likes the people of this country is Rory. That is almost certainly not enough to make him leader nor does it mean that he would be a good PM. But by comparison with so many other politicians it really stands out.
Boris also has a slightly weird sense of humour and a penchant for totally inappropriate remarks.
But I think it's a bit unfair to call him continuity May. May has some good points.
How long into a Boris premiership will it be before we start to look back at her time in office with nostalgia?
About a nanosecond in my case.
He's the second worst of the remaining contenders.
That’s not the only way he’s Continuity May. Avoiding scrutiny is the other way in which he’s simply May in trousers, though rather more scruffy than her.
The only candidate who gives the impression that he is interested in and likes the people of this country is Rory. That is almost certainly not enough to make him leader nor does it mean that he would be a good PM. But by comparison with so many other politicians it really stands out.
Boris also has a slightly weird sense of humour and a penchant for totally inappropriate remarks.
But I think it's a bit unfair to call him continuity May. May has some good points.
How long into a Boris premiership will it be before we start to look back at her time in office with nostalgia?
Rory vs Boris has to be the final round. For one thing, it is the contest Boris probably fears most.
Wont he prefer Rory to Hunt? Rory is at the other end of the debate and less likely to get membership support than Hunt who is trying to chart a middle path.
Rory’s offering is clearly distinguished from Boris’s. He is sharp and penetrating in his speeches and I’ll guess a good questioner and will put Boris on the spot by pointing out the inconsistencies and fantasies in Boris’s stated position. Plus his politeness and persistence could contrast nicely with Boris’s bluster.
He is a relative unknown so has much to gain. Boris has more to lose.
It would be more of a proper debate about what sort of Conservatism there should be than a debate between two people who think that they should somehow be entitled to be leader just because.
That’s not the only way he’s Continuity May. Avoiding scrutiny is the other way in which he’s simply May in trousers, though rather more scruffy than her.
The only candidate who gives the impression that he is interested in and likes the people of this country is Rory. That is almost certainly not enough to make him leader nor does it mean that he would be a good PM. But by comparison with so many other politicians it really stands out.
Boris also has a slightly weird sense of humour and a penchant for totally inappropriate remarks.
But I think it's a bit unfair to call him continuity May. May has some good points.
How long into a Boris premiership will it be before we start to look back at her time in office with nostalgia?
About a nanosecond in my case.
He's the second worst of the remaining contenders.
The "grandees" who were asking for a coronation seem to have stirred up something of a hornets nest.
While a few of the less intelligent Scottish Tories- Thomson, Clark,- have backed Johnson, Ruth Davidson is going to have a real headache if he won. If she doesn't create real distance between herself and Johnson then the party will lose everything they gained in 2017. Watch for the creation of a separate Scottish Tory party if BoJo gets it.
Its not just London that is shaky.
Comres has a Boris led Tories on 28% in Scotland, the same as 2017 as the Brexit Party vote goes back to the Tories north of the border in large part.
Though Rory Stewart is the only Tory candidate who does better in Scotland than he does across the UK, a Stewart led Tory Party would be on 21% in Scotland compared to 19% across the UK
A Boris lead in the opinion polls would go the way of the Ullapool-Inverness ferry.
That's to say, it would start well on a big stretch of open water, then the sides would narrow and when it was too late to turn round there would be reality looming in the form of hard rocks.
Once the ship was impaled on them, it would be left there for all time many miles from its destination while people pointed, and laughed at the stupidity of the captain for not knowing Loch Broom doesn't lead to Inverness.
Boris is the only Tory who gets the Tories back to 2017 levels in Scotland on that poll, all other candidates poll worse with a Hunt led Tories doing worst and falling to just 19% in Scotland ie 1997 levels.
Suggests Ruth Davidson should be more worried about a Hunt led Tories than a Boris led Tory Party
There is a ridiculous level of focus on hypothetical match-ups.
Davidson's worry isn't about the first poll under the new leader. It's about the risk that the new leader says or does something as PM that mortally offends proud, centre-right Scots at some point within his first six months. And there's one candidate who is MUCH more likely to do that than the others.
I wouldn't have said there is a 'risk' Boris would do that. It's got to be a near certainty.
That’s not the only way he’s Continuity May. Avoiding scrutiny is the other way in which he’s simply May in trousers, though rather more scruffy than her.
The only candidate who gives the impression that he is interested in and likes the people of this country is Rory. That is almost certainly not enough to make him leader nor does it mean that he would be a good PM. But by comparison with so many other politicians it really stands out.
Boris also has a slightly weird sense of humour and a penchant for totally inappropriate remarks.
But I think it's a bit unfair to call him continuity May. May has some good points.
How long into a Boris premiership will it be before we start to look back at her time in office with nostalgia?
I doubt we will even get to the premiership bit of Boris's leadership.
LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.
In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.
Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?
Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?
The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.
Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.
So fraud is a lesser offence than speeding in your eyes.
The speeding wasn't the problem, was it? I thought it was the perjury and obstruction of justice.
I didn't follow the Davies case closely but had the impression it may have been more cock-up than conspiracy. Happy to be corrected if wrong.
Just to be clear on this, Fiona Onasanya was convicted of perverting the course of justice. However, it is not clear which justice she was deemed by the jury of having perverted.
The presiding judge said that she certainly perverted her brother's justice (perverting the course of justice regarding speeding offences), but he was not sure whether Fiona was involved in the original crime. Quite why the jury weren't asked two separate questions, I don't know (I have my suspicions).
So this puts a slightly different complexion on things. As mentioned earlier, the speeding points were pinned on some innocent Russian. If you think Fiona Onasanya was party to this crime, then that's quite serious because she would have had time to think about her actions. If, however, she was "only" guilty of protecting her brother, then one might have slightly more sympathy for her.
That’s not the only way he’s Continuity May. Avoiding scrutiny is the other way in which he’s simply May in trousers, though rather more scruffy than her.
The only candidate who gives the impression that he is interested in and likes the people of this country is Rory. That is almost certainly not enough to make him leader nor does it mean that he would be a good PM. But by comparison with so many other politicians it really stands out.
Boris also has a slightly weird sense of humour and a penchant for totally inappropriate remarks.
But I think it's a bit unfair to call him continuity May. May has some good points.
How long into a Boris premiership will it be before we start to look back at her time in office with nostalgia?
About a nanosecond in my case.
He's the second worst of the remaining contenders.
Is the worst on sky at the moment?
I don't know, I haven't got Sky.
It's the dogmatic smackhead if that's the one that's on.
If there is a by election it is foolish to make any assumption about the outcome based on opinion polls.
1. It is a byelection (obviously) 2. It’s a wide spread, rural community making canvassing difficult and require boots on the ground. 3. Will require local candidate with knowledge of local issues 4. Will have little to do with the outcome of the Tory leadership outcome.
I don’t know the place so there will be other factors which give better reasons for predicting the result than using polls.
The LibDem candidate will be their current leader in Wales, born in Wrexham, a Welsh speaker who fought Montgomery (or whatever it is called now) last time.
It is called Montgomeryshire.
Jane Dodds does not live in the Brecon & Radnor constituency.
She lives in Welshpool. I have never heard her speak Welsh.
You’d think the 10% threshold should be reached. Two recalls in a calendar year would suggest this might become a thing.
Given the precedent of their refusal to accept the referendum result, if The Brexit Party ever won a seat I’d expect 10% of the constituents to instantly demand a recall every time
MPs can only be recalled in very limited circumstances.
Incidentally, I was wryly amused to see you citing opinion polls last night. Though the point you made was absolutely correct, and points to something important.
That no one talks about Brexit party leading in them? I wasn’t citing them to prove anything or saying they were accurate, but to highlight how they aren’t mentioned by people who believe in them when the bad guys are doing well
If there is a by election it is foolish to make any assumption about the outcome based on opinion polls.
1. It is a byelection (obviously) 2. It’s a wide spread, rural community making canvassing difficult and require boots on the ground. 3. Will require local candidate with knowledge of local issues 4. Will have little to do with the outcome of the Tory leadership outcome.
I don’t know the place so there will be other factors which give better reasons for predicting the result than using polls.
The LibDem candidate will be their current leader in Wales, born in Wrexham, a Welsh speaker who fought Montgomery (or whatever it is called now) last time.
It is called Montgomeryshire.
Jane Dodds does not live in the Brecon & Radnor constituency.
She lives in Welshpool. I have never heard her speak Welsh.
Slightly surprised to hear of a Welsh speaker from Wrexham. I had a good friend from Wrexham (Maelor, to be exact) who couldn't speak Welsh for a long time although eventually he learned it.
If there is a by election it is foolish to make any assumption about the outcome based on opinion polls.
1. It is a byelection (obviously) 2. It’s a wide spread, rural community making canvassing difficult and require boots on the ground. 3. Will require local candidate with knowledge of local issues 4. Will have little to do with the outcome of the Tory leadership outcome.
I don’t know the place so there will be other factors which give better reasons for predicting the result than using polls.
The LibDem candidate will be their current leader in Wales, born in Wrexham, a Welsh speaker who fought Montgomery (or whatever it is called now) last time.
It is called Montgomeryshire.
Jane Dodds does not live in the Brecon & Radnor constituency.
She lives in Welshpool. I have never heard her speak Welsh.
If there is a by election it is foolish to make any assumption about the outcome based on opinion polls.
1. It is a byelection (obviously) 2. It’s a wide spread, rural community making canvassing difficult and require boots on the ground. 3. Will require local candidate with knowledge of local issues 4. Will have little to do with the outcome of the Tory leadership outcome.
I don’t know the place so there will be other factors which give better reasons for predicting the result than using polls.
The LibDem candidate will be their current leader in Wales, born in Wrexham, a Welsh speaker who fought Montgomery (or whatever it is called now) last time.
It is called Montgomeryshire.
Jane Dodds does not live in the Brecon & Radnor constituency.
She lives in Welshpool. I have never heard her speak Welsh.
Neither have I. Wikipedia says she can, FWIW
Wikipedia also said Martin Selmayr's grandfather wasn't a war criminal and that Richard III didn't murder his nephews.
It has all the credibility of a manifesto costing from Labour.
That’s not the only way he’s Continuity May. Avoiding scrutiny is the other way in which he’s simply May in trousers, though rather more scruffy than her.
The only candidate who gives the impression that he is interested in and likes the people of this country is Rory. That is almost certainly not enough to make him leader nor does it mean that he would be a good PM. But by comparison with so many other politicians it really stands out.
Boris also has a slightly weird sense of humour and a penchant for totally inappropriate remarks.
But I think it's a bit unfair to call him continuity May. May has some good points.
How long into a Boris premiership will it be before we start to look back at her time in office with nostalgia?
About a nanosecond in my case.
He's the second worst of the remaining contenders.
Is the worst on sky at the moment?
Yup ! And he keeps digging himself into a hole. Suspending parliament is a one way ticket to a complete Tory implosion.
Threatening the EU with an action that makes the UK look like a Banana Republic and will eventually bring down the government is unlikely to have Brussels quaking in their boots !
If there is a by election it is foolish to make any assumption about the outcome based on opinion polls.
1. It is a byelection (obviously) 2. It’s a wide spread, rural community making canvassing difficult and require boots on the ground. 3. Will require local candidate with knowledge of local issues 4. Will have little to do with the outcome of the Tory leadership outcome.
I don’t know the place so there will be other factors which give better reasons for predicting the result than using polls.
The LibDem candidate will be their current leader in Wales, born in Wrexham, a Welsh speaker who fought Montgomery (or whatever it is called now) last time.
It is called Montgomeryshire.
Jane Dodds does not live in the Brecon & Radnor constituency.
She lives in Welshpool. I have never heard her speak Welsh.
Neither have I. Wikipedia says she can, FWIW
My guess is that the wiki page is as accurate as a LibDem bar chart.
Incidentally, is that LibDem literature in the picture? If so, I am amused to see the LibDems quoting the Murdoch press approvingly. Whatever happened to Vince "I have declared war on Rupert Murdoch" Cable?
Yup ! And he keeps digging himself into a hole. Suspending parliament is a one way ticket to a complete Tory implosion.
Threatening the EU with an action that makes the UK look like a Banana Republic and will eventually bring down the government is unlikely to have Brussels quaking in their boots !
You’d think the 10% threshold should be reached. Two recalls in a calendar year would suggest this might become a thing.
Given the precedent of their refusal to accept the referendum result, if The Brexit Party ever won a seat I’d expect 10% of the constituents to instantly demand a recall every time
MPs can only be recalled in very limited circumstances.
Incidentally, I was wryly amused to see you citing opinion polls last night. Though the point you made was absolutely correct, and points to something important.
That no one talks about Brexit party leading in them? I wasn’t citing them to prove anything or saying they were accurate, but to highlight how they aren’t mentioned by people who believe in them when the bad guys are doing well
They’re telling us that the Brexit party are consistently polling far better in Westminster polls than UKIP ever did. That is important and suggests a ceiling has been broken through. It may well not be permanent but it is a shift.
If there is a by election it is foolish to make any assumption about the outcome based on opinion polls.
1. It is a byelection (obviously) 2. It’s a wide spread, rural community making canvassing difficult and require boots on the ground. 3. Will require local candidate with knowledge of local issues 4. Will have little to do with the outcome of the Tory leadership outcome.
I don’t know the place so there will be other factors which give better reasons for predicting the result than using polls.
The LibDem candidate will be their current leader in Wales, born in Wrexham, a Welsh speaker who fought Montgomery (or whatever it is called now) last time.
It is called Montgomeryshire.
Jane Dodds does not live in the Brecon & Radnor constituency.
She lives in Welshpool. I have never heard her speak Welsh.
Neither have I. Wikipedia says she can, FWIW
Wikipedia also said Martin Selmayr's grandfather wasn't a war criminal and that Richard III didn't murder his nephews.
It has all the credibility of a manifesto costing from Labour.
Facts in WP are supposed to be supported by citation, but this one isn't. Her election leaflets claim she "attended a welsh speaking school that nurtured her love of the Welsh language".
She started her last conference speech with "Gynhadledd… Gynhadledd ddiolch i chi bawb am ddod heddiw. Dyma fy nhrydedd gynhadledd fel arweinydd ac mae’r angerdd a’r brwdfrydedd sydd gennym yn ein plaid wedi creu cymaint o argraff arnaf."
Would be incredibly dumb to stand in Montgomeryshire and put in your leaflets that you are a welsh speaker, if you are not.
If there is a by election it is foolish to make any assumption about the outcome based on opinion polls.
1. It is a byelection (obviously) 2. It’s a wide spread, rural community making canvassing difficult and require boots on the ground. 3. Will require local candidate with knowledge of local issues 4. Will have little to do with the outcome of the Tory leadership outcome.
I don’t know the place so there will be other factors which give better reasons for predicting the result than using polls.
The LibDem candidate will be their current leader in Wales, born in Wrexham, a Welsh speaker who fought Montgomery (or whatever it is called now) last time.
It is called Montgomeryshire.
Jane Dodds does not live in the Brecon & Radnor constituency.
She lives in Welshpool. I have never heard her speak Welsh.
Neither have I. Wikipedia says she can, FWIW
Wikipedia also said Martin Selmayr's grandfather wasn't a war criminal and that Richard III didn't murder his nephews.
It has all the credibility of a manifesto costing from Labour.
The "grandees" who were asking for a coronation seem to have stirred up something of a hornets nest.
While a few of the less intelligent Scottish Tories- Thomson, Clark,- have backed Johnson, Ruth Davidson is going to have a real headache if he won. If she doesn't create real distance between herself and Johnson then the party will lose everything they gained in 2017. Watch for the creation of a separate Scottish Tory party if BoJo gets it.
Its not just London that is shaky.
Comres has a Boris led Tories on 28% in Scotland, the same as 2017 as the Brexit Party vote goes back to the Tories north of the border in large part.
Though Rory Stewart is the only Tory candidate who does better in Scotland than he does across the UK, a Stewart led Tory Party would be on 21% in Scotland compared to 19% across the UK
A Boris lead in the opinion polls would go the way of the Ullapool-Inverness ferry.
That's to say, it would start well on a big stretch of open water, then the sides would narrow and when it was too late to turn round there would be reality looming in the form of hard rocks.
Once the ship was impaled on them, it would be left there for all time many miles from its destination while people pointed, and laughed at the stupidity of the captain for not knowing Loch Broom doesn't lead to Inverness.
Boris is the only Tory who gets the Tories back to 2017 levels in Scotland on that poll, all other candidates poll worse with a Hunt led Tories doing worst and falling to just 19% in Scotland ie 1997 levels.
Suggests Ruth Davidson should be more worried about a Hunt led Tories than a Boris led Tory Party
There is a ridiculous level of focus on hypothetical match-ups.
Davidson's worry isn't about the first poll under the new leader. It's about the risk that the new leader says or does something as PM that mortally offends proud, centre-right Scots at some point within his first six months. And there's one candidate who is MUCH more likely to do that than the others.
No it is a fact that Boris gets the Tories to a higher voteshare in Scotland than any other Tory leadership candidate.
I know it does not fit diehard Remainers whinges about how Boris is less popular than Edward IInd in Scotland but tough those are the facts.
The average 2017 Scottish Tory was not some young urban anti Brexit social liberal but actually a pensioner living in a rural area or market town and a social conservative and very likely a Leave voter and many of them are now voting Brexit Party.
So Boris boosts the Tories vote in Scotland just as he does in the rest of the UK
The "grandees" who were asking for a coronation seem to have stirred up something of a hornets nest.
While a few of the less intelligent Scottish Tories- Thomson, Clark,- have backed Johnson, Ruth Davidson is going to have a real headache if he won. If she doesn't create real distance between herself and Johnson then the party will lose everything they gained in 2017. Watch for the creation of a separate Scottish Tory party if BoJo gets it.
Its not just London that is shaky.
Comres has a Boris led Tories on 28% in Scotland, the same as 2017 as the Brexit Party vote goes back to the Tories north of the border in large part.
led Tory Party would be on 21% in Scotland compared to 19% across the UK
A Boris lead in the opinion polls would go the way of the Ullapool-Inverness ferry.
That's to say, it would start well on a big stretch of open water, then the sides would narrow and when it was too late to turn round there would be reality looming in the form of hard rocks.
Once the ship was impaled on them, it would be left there for all time many miles from its destination while people pointed, and laughed at the stupidity of the captain for not knowing Loch Broom doesn't lead to Inverness.
Boris is the only Tory who gets the Tories back to 2017 levels in Scotland on that poll, all other candidates poll worse with a Hunt led Tories doing worst and falling to just 19% in Scotland ie 1997 levels.
Suggests Ruth Davidson should be more worried about a Hunt led Tories than a Boris led Tory Party
There is a ridiculous level of focus on hypothetical match-ups.
Davidson's worry isn't about the first poll under the new leader. It's about the risk that the new leader says months. And there's one candidate who is MUCH more likely to do that than the others.
No it is a fact that Boris gets the Tories to a higher voteshare in Scotland than any other Tory leadership candidate.
I know it does not fit diehard Remainers whinges about how Boris is less popular than Edward IInd in Scotland but tough those are the facts.
The average 2017 Scottish Tory was not some young urban pro independence social liberal but actually a pensioner living in a rural area or market town and a social conservative and very likely a Leave voter and many of them are now voting Brexit Party.
So Boris boosts the Tories vote in Scotlsnd just as he does in the rest of the UK
How can it be a "fact" when it hasn't been tested, and never will, at least in this universe?
LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.
Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?
Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.
So fraud is a lesser offence than speeding in your eyes.
The recall act specifically references falsifying expense claims as one of the three automatic triggers of a recall, the Peterborough recall was for having been sentenced to a period in jail. Don’t forget the current MP can stand as a conservative if they and their party believe it was a minor offense.
This is a good account of the case and is more much serious than some posters on this thread have suggested.
It’s a reasonable summary but states exactly what most posters on the thread have said - he faked an invoice to claim expenses which had been properly incurred but that he had to split between two budgets.
The judge puts his finger on the most disturbing impact - that he chose to forge. Once a cheater always a cheater.
And he changed the nature of the expenditure from photos to furniture, because he had already claimed the maximum from the budget that covers photos. The expenditure may have been incurred, but the excess wasn't proper to claim and should have been paid for personally.
I hadn’t picked up on that nuance - I’d understood it was budgets from two different organisations. Clearly that is much more dodgy
You might be right - the Indy story Mike linked isn't clear but looking at the Guardian's report, it suggests he could have claimed the items under either the "start up" office budget (which he had all used) or the normal routine office costs budget. I'd think that framed photos for the wall were more "start up" than ongoing costs, but if the Guardian is right that they could be considered routine office costs, then he did have that option.
If he had been sensible he could have asked for two invoices in the first place. But it sounds like his expenses were in a horrendous mess and he had already had his IPSA card suspended until he sorted it out.
My recollection is he was so far behind with his admin that he wouldn’t have received the 2 new invoices in time.
Mr. HYUFD, much of that will be down to name recognition, though, which rather muddies the waters.
Given the Foreign Secretary gets the Tories to just 19% in Scotland below the Home Secretary on 22%, Rory Stewart on 21% and Boris on 28% it is not just name recognition, no
I reckon she started with no deal as an option, but changed tack when she was fully briefed on the implications, both economic and specifically political (for the union). You could see the change in her attitude during the spring. If the ST is right she is now voting for Rory and may join the anti-no-dealers in Parliament.
I doubt that she will rebel against the new PM’s line
Trump skewering Khan on violence again and Khan still has no fucking clue. Honestly if the lib Dems put up a candidate that isn't Chuka I'll vote for them. I'll never vote for the racist, Bailey.
Trump skewering Khan on violence again and Khan still has no fucking clue. Honestly if the lib Dems put up a candidate that isn't Chuka I'll vote for them. I'll never vote for the racist, Bailey.
Homicide is sharply down in London this year. But don’t let facts get in your way.
You’d think the 10% threshold should be reached. Two recalls in a calendar year would suggest this might become a thing.
Given the precedent of their refusal to accept the referendum result, if The Brexit Party ever won a seat I’d expect 10% of the constituents to instantly demand a recall every time
MPs can only be recalled in very limited circumstances.
Incidentally, I was wryly amused to see you citing opinion polls last night. Though the point you made was absolutely correct, and points to something important.
That no one talks about Brexit party leading in them? I wasn’t citing them to prove anything or saying they were accurate, but to highlight how they aren’t mentioned by people who believe in them when the bad guys are doing well
They’re telling us that the Brexit party are consistently polling far better in Westminster polls than UKIP ever did. That is important and suggests a ceiling has been broken through. It may well not be permanent but it is a shift.
Boris though gets the Brexit Party at least back to UKIP 2015 levels with Yougov
Trump skewering Khan on violence again and Khan still has no fucking clue. Honestly if the lib Dems put up a candidate that isn't Chuka I'll vote for them. I'll never vote for the racist, Bailey.
Alan Sugar may yet run as an Independent, he hates Khan and Corbyn
You’d think the 10% threshold should be reached. Two recalls in a calendar year would suggest this might become a thing.
Given the precedent of their refusal to accept the referendum result, if The Brexit Party ever won a seat I’d expect 10% of the constituents to instantly demand a recall every time
MPs can only be recalled in very limited circumstances.
Incidentally, I was wryly amused to see you citing opinion polls last night. Though the point you made was absolutely correct, and points to something important.
That no one talks about Brexit party leading in them? I wasn’t citing them to prove anything or saying they were accurate, but to highlight how they aren’t mentioned by people who believe in them when the bad guys are doing well
They’re telling us that the Brexit party are consistently polling far better in Westminster polls than UKIP ever did. That is important and suggests a ceiling has been broken through. It may well not be permanent but it is a shift.
Boris though gets the Brexit Party at least back to UKIP 2015 levels with Yougov
We’ll see. You’d have thought if that were true you’d see a shift already. Everyone is expecting Boris Johnson to win.
Re televised debates. If I were a politician from a rival party, I’d be a bit put out that the Conservatives are getting three hours of prime time exposure for free. It must give whoever becomes leader an edge if there were an election this year.
Re televised debates. If I were a politician from a rival party, I’d be a bit put out that the Conservatives are getting three hours of prime time exposure for free. It must give whoever becomes leader an edge if there were an election this year.
Frankly given the appalling level of talent involved, if I was running the labour party I'd want as much blue on blue publicity as I could get.
You’d think the 10% threshold should be reached. Two recalls in a calendar year would suggest this might become a thing.
Given the precedent of their refusal to accept the referendum result, if The Brexit Party ever won a seat I’d expect 10% of the constituents to instantly demand a recall every time
MPs can only be recalled in very limited circumstances.
Incidentally, I was wryly amused to see you citing opinion polls last night. Though the point you made was absolutely correct, and points to something important.
That no one talks about Brexit party leading in them? I wasn’t citing them to prove anything or saying they were accurate, but to highlight how they aren’t mentioned by people who believe in them when the bad guys are doing well
They’re telling us that the Brexit party are consistently polling far better in Westminster polls than UKIP ever did. That is important and suggests a ceiling has been broken through. It may well not be permanent but it is a shift.
Boris though gets the Brexit Party at least back to UKIP 2015 levels with Yougov
If the next GE is a four way battle, it’s unlikely the Conservatives can spend so much of their resources making sure Farage is defeated in his seat
I reckon she started with no deal as an option, but changed tack when she was fully briefed on the implications, both economic and specifically political (for the union). You could see the change in her attitude during the spring. If the ST is right she is now voting for Rory and may join the anti-no-dealers in Parliament.
I doubt that she will rebel against the new PM’s line
The story is in today's MoS (not the ST) and begins with the line "Mrs May has suggested..." she may join Hammond and Rudd in voting to block no deal. When and where she made the suggestion isn't mentioned.
The "grandees" who were asking for a coronation seem to have stirred up something of a hornets nest.
While a few of the less intelligent Scottish Tories- Thomson, Clark,- have backed Johnson, Ruth Davidson is going to have a real headache if he won. haky.
Comres has a Boris led Tories on 28% in Scotland, the same as 2017 as the Brexit Party vote goes back to the Tories north of the border in large part.
led Tory Party would be on 21% in Scotland compared to 19% across the UK
A Boris lead in the opinion polls would go the way of the Ullapool-Inverness ferry.
That's to say, it would start well on a big stretch of open rness.
Boris is the only Tory who gets the Tories back to 2017 levels in Scotland on that poll, all other candidates poll worse with a Hunt led Tories doing worst and falling to just 19% in Scotland ie 1997 levels.
Suggests Ruth Davidson should be more worried about a Hunt led Tories than a Boris led Tory Party
There is a ridiculous level of focus on hypothetical match-ups.
Davidson's worry isn't about the first poll under the new leader. It's about the risk that the new leader says months. And there's one candidate who is MUCH more likely to do that than the others.
No it is a fact that Boris gets the Tories to a higher voteshare in Scotland than any other Tory leadership candidate.
I know it does not fit diehard Remainers whinges about how Boris is less popular than Edward IInd in Scotland but tough those are the facts.
The average 2017 Scottish Tory was not some young urban pro independence social liberal but actually a pensioner living in a rural area or market town and a social conservative and very likely a Leave voter and many of them are now voting Brexit Party.
So Boris boosts the Tories vote in Scotlsnd just as he does in the rest of the UK
How can it be a "fact" when it hasn't been tested, and never will, at least in this universe?
We know the Tories were 4th in the European Parliament elections in Scotland behind the SNP, the Brexit Party and the LDs so a generic Tory will not do, Boris is the Tories' best hope in Scotland (though Rory Stewart polls better in Scotland than in England but still does not get as high a Scottish Tory voteshare as Boris does)
Mr. HYUFD, much of that will be down to name recognition, though, which rather muddies the waters.
Given the Foreign Secretary gets the Tories to just 19% in Scotland below the Home Secretary on 22%, Rory Stewart on 21% and Boris on 28% it is not just name recognition, no
Re televised debates. If I were a politician from a rival party, I’d be a bit put out that the Conservatives are getting three hours of prime time exposure for free. It must give whoever becomes leader an edge if there were an election this year.
I think there were similar programmes in 2016 for the Labour leadership (can't remember if there were for the 2017 edition).
The "grandees" who were asking for a coronation seem to have stirred up something of a hornets nest.
While a few of the less intelligent Scottish Tories- Thomson, Clark,- have backed Johnson, Ruth Davidson is going to have a real headache if he won. haky.
Comres has a Boris led Tories on 28% in Scotland, the same as 2017 as the Brexit Party vote goes back to the Tories north of the border in large part.
led Tory Party would be on 21% in Scotland compared to 19% across the UK
A Boris lead in the opinion polls would go the way of the Ullapool-Inverness ferry.
That's to say, it would start well on a big stretch of open rness.
Boris is the only Tory who gets the Tories back to 2017 levels in Scotland on that poll, all other candidates poll worse with a Hunt led Tories doing worst and falling to just 19% in Scotland ie 1997 levels.
Suggests Ruth Davidson should be more worried about a Hunt led Tories than a Boris led Tory Party
There is a ridiculous level of focus on hypothetical match-ups.
Davidson's worry isn't about the first poll under the new leader. It's about the risk that the new leader says months. And there's one candidate who is MUCH more likely to do that than the others.
No it is a fact that Boris gets the Tories to a higher voteshare in Scotland than any other Tory leadership candidate.
I know it does not fit diehard Remainers whinges about how Boris is less popular than Edward IInd in Scotland but tough those are the facts.
The average 2017 Scottish Tory was not some young urban pro independence social liberal but actually a pensioner living in a rural area or market town and a social conservative and very likely a Leave voter and many of them are now voting Brexit Party.
So Boris boosts the Tories vote in Scotlsnd just as he does in the rest of the UK
How can it be a "fact" when it hasn't been tested, and never will, at least in this universe?
We know the Tories were 4th in the European Parliament elections in Scotland behind the SNP, the Brexit Party and the LDs so a generic Tory will not do, Boris is the Tories' best hope in Scotland (though Rory Stewart polls better in Scotland than in England but still does not get as high a Scottish Tory voteshare as Boris does)
The conclusion is your opinion, not a fact at all.
Mr. HYUFD, much of that will be down to name recognition, though, which rather muddies the waters.
Given the Foreign Secretary gets the Tories to just 19% in Scotland below the Home Secretary on 22%, Rory Stewart on 21% and Boris on 28% it is not just name recognition, no
Are you quoting subsets or real Scottish polling?
Subsets are real Scottish polling even if not as wide ranging as a Scotland only poll
Mr. HYUFD, compare how many know who Boris is to how many know who Rory is. That recognition has an effect. Boris might still be ahead, even if Rory were better known, but we don't know either way.
Six of the last nine polls have The Brexit Party in the lead. Does anyone really believe that if a snap election were called tomorrow, they would get most votes?
They would get a lot of votes. UKIP never polled in first in a Westminster poll in 2014 and they got more or less their expected vote share in 2015. The Brexit party would probably fade a bit in an election campaign but I see no reason to assume in a snap election they would get less than say 18% of the vote right now.
UKIP scored 25% in an opinion poll in 2014 and a few other times in the 20s in 2014 and 2015, so not too far below the scores for Brexit Party now (though more polls then so more scope for outliers).
What is different is that the Lib Dems were below 20% then and around 20% now, so support that left them third in 2014 has them first in 2019. At the EU elections Farage's lot received nearly 1 million more votes than in 2014. If the same is true for the next GE compared to 2015 then he would be approaching 5 million votes, or about 15% at GE2017 turnout levels.
How to explain the discrepancy with the opinion polls? * EU elections boost. * Lack of ground organisation. * Anti-Labour tactical voting. * General election on politics other than Brexit.
You’d think the 10% threshold should be reached. Two recalls in a calendar year would suggest this might become a thing.
Given the precedent of their refusal to accept the referendum result, if The Brexit Party ever won a seat I’d expect 10% of the constituents to instantly demand a recall every time
MPs can only be recalled in very limited circumstances.
Incidentally, I was wryly amused to see you citing opinion polls last night. Though the point you made was absolutely correct, and points to something important.
That no one talks about Brexit party leading in them? I wasn’t citing them to prove anything or saying they were accurate, but to highlight how they aren’t mentioned by people who believe in them when the bad guys are doing well
They’re telling us that the Brexit party are consistently polling far better in Westminster polls than UKIP ever did. That is important and suggests a ceiling has been broken through. It may well not be permanent but it is a shift.
Boris though gets the Brexit Party at least back to UKIP 2015 levels with Yougov
We’ll see. You’d have thought if that were true you’d see a shift already. Everyone is expecting Boris Johnson to win.
May is still Tory leader though of course on today's Yougov it would be Farage as Kingmaker between the Tories and Labour even with the Tory voteshare up on the last poll
Re televised debates. If I were a politician from a rival party, I’d be a bit put out that the Conservatives are getting three hours of prime time exposure for free. It must give whoever becomes leader an edge if there were an election this year.
Would be incredibly dumb to stand in Montgomeryshire and put in your leaflets that you are a welsh speaker, if you are not.
True, but we have just seen (Fiona Onasanya & Chris Davies) that MPs, and by extension prospective MPs, are incredibly dumb.
Jane Dodds still does not live in the B&R constituency.
In every mid-Walian election she has so far stood in, she has lost vote share and the LibDems have moved backwards.
In Montgomeryshire, she was famous for wanting to cover the constituency with windfarms. Something of great importance to LibDems in Richmond on Thames, but Montgomeryshire was less enthusiastic.
You’d think the 10% threshold should be reached. Two recalls in a calendar year would suggest this might become a thing.
Given the precedent of their refusal to accept the referendum result, if The Brexit Party ever won a seat I’d expect 10% of the constituents to instantly demand a recall every time
Given the antics of UKIP MEPs there is likely to be plenty of scope for recall petitions.
You might be right - the Indy story Mike linked isn't clear but looking at the Guardian's report, it suggests he could have claimed the items under either the "start up" office budget (which he had all used) or the normal routine office costs budget. I'd think that framed photos for the wall were more "start up" than ongoing costs, but if the Guardian is right that they could be considered routine office costs, then he did have that option.
If he had been sensible he could have asked for two invoices in the first place. But it sounds like his expenses were in a horrendous mess and he had already had his IPSA card suspended until he sorted it out.
Is there an IPSA card? Wasn't one in my day. He clearly got into a tangle and thought he could sort it out without proper reflection and/or advice. I'm not sure it's a hanging offence - I don't think I'd sign the recall petition myself. It'd be tempting as a way of maybe reducing the Government majority, but one shouldn't pick on individuals in order to achieve some wider objective.
You’d think the 10% threshold should be reached. Two recalls in a calendar year would suggest this might become a thing.
Given the precedent of their refusal to accept the referendum result, if The Brexit Party ever won a seat I’d expect 10% of the constituents to instantly demand a recall every time
MPs can only be recalled in very limited circumstances.
Incidentally, I was wryly amused to see you citing opinion polls last night. Though the point you made was absolutely correct, and points to something important.
That no one talks about Brexit party leading in them? I wasn’t citing them to prove anything or saying they were accurate, but to highlight how they aren’t mentioned by people who believe in them when the bad guys are doing well
They’re telling us that the Brexit party are consistently polling far better in Westminster polls than UKIP ever did. That is important and suggests a ceiling has been broken through. It may well not be permanent but it is a shift.
Boris though gets the Brexit Party at least back to UKIP 2015 levels with Yougov
If the next GE is a four way battle, it’s unlikely the Conservatives can spend so much of their resources making sure Farage is defeated in his seat
They will have to defend Tory seats from the Brexit Party yes
Trump skewering Khan on violence again and Khan still has no fucking clue. Honestly if the lib Dems put up a candidate that isn't Chuka I'll vote for them. I'll never vote for the racist, Bailey.
Homicide is sharply down in London this year. But don’t let facts get in your way.
London not even in top 50 of murder cities, US have four, maybe he should look closer to home.
How is Boris going to go down in God-fearing rural Wales?
Very well given the Brexit Party won Powys in the European Parliament elections and Boris is the best candidate to win them back (Trump of course did better with evangelicals thsn any US candidate for decades)
You’d think the 10% threshold should be reached. Two recalls in a calendar year would suggest this might become a thing.
Given the precedent of their refusal to accept the referendum result, if The Brexit Party ever won a seat I’d expect 10% of the constituents to instantly demand a recall every time
Given the antics of UKIP MEPs there is likely to be plenty of scope for recall petitions.
There would be a lot of recall petitions on very spurious grounds if any Brexit Party MPs were elected. We might even discover that by elections are only ‘advisory’
The "grandees" who were asking for a coronation seem to have stirred up something of a hornets nest.
While a few of the less intelligent Scottish Tories- Thomson, Clark,- have backed Johnson, Ruth Davidson is going to have a real headache if he won. haky.
Comres has a Boris led Tories on 28% in Scotland, the same as 2017 as the Brexit Party vote goes back to the Tories north of the border in large part.
led Tory Party would be on 21% in Scotland compared to 19% across the UK
A Boris lead in the opinion polls would go the way of the Ullapool-Inverness ferry.
That's to say, it would start well on a big stretch of open rness.
Boris is the only Tory who gets the Tories back to 2017 levels in Scotland on that poll, all other candidates poll worse with a Hunt led Tories doing worst and falling to just 19% in Scotland ie 1997 levels.
Suggests Ruth Davidson should be more worried about a Hunt led Tories than a Boris led Tory Party
There is a ridiculous level of focus on hypothetical match-ups.
Davidson's worry isn't about the first poll under the new leader. It's about the risk that the new leader says months. And there's one candidate who is MUCH more likely to do that than the others.
No it is a fact that Boris gets the Tories to a higher voteshare in Scotland than any other Tory leadership candidate.
I know it does not fit diehard Remainers whinges about how Boris is less popular than Edward IInd in Scotland but tough those are the facts.
The average 2017 Scottish Tory was not some young urban pro independence social liberal but actually a pensioner living in a rural area or market town and a social conservative and very likely a Leave voter and many of them are now voting Brexit Party.
So Boris boosts the Tories vote in Scotlsnd just as he does in the rest of the UK
How can it be a "fact" when it hasn't been tested, and never will, at least in this universe?
We know the Tories were 4th in the European Parliament elections in Scotland behind the SNP, the Brexit Party and the LDs so a generic Tory will not do, Boris is the Tories' best hope in Scotland (though Rory Stewart polls better in Scotland than in England but still does not get as high a Scottish Tory voteshare as Boris does)
The conclusion is your opinion, not a fact at all.
No it is a fact based on the polling and the rise of the Brexit Party in Scotland, just you dislike the facts
You’d think the 10% threshold should be reached. Two recalls in a calendar year would suggest this might become a thing.
Given the precedent of their refusal to accept the referendum result, if The Brexit Party ever won a seat I’d expect 10% of the constituents to instantly demand a recall every time
MPs can only be recalled in very limited circumstances.
Incidentally, I was wryly amused to see you citing opinion polls last night. Though the point you made was absolutely correct, and points to something important.
That no one talks about Brexit party leading in them? I wasn’t citing them to prove anything or saying they were accurate, but to highlight how they aren’t mentioned by people who believe in them when the bad guys are doing well
They’re telling us that the Brexit party are consistently polling far better in Westminster polls than UKIP ever did. That is important and suggests a ceiling has been broken through. It may well not be permanent but it is a shift.
Boris though gets the Brexit Party at least back to UKIP 2015 levels with Yougov
We’ll see. You’d have thought if that were true you’d see a shift already. Everyone is expecting Boris Johnson to win.
May is still Tory leader though of course on today's Yougov it would be Farage as Kingmaker between the Tories and Labour even with the Tory voteshare up on the last poll
Farage has almost never converted vote share into seats whatever party he has been with. Remember at GE2015 13% of the GB vote but just one seat and that one didn't last long. Carswell detached himself not long after.
Trump skewering Khan on violence again and Khan still has no fucking clue. Honestly if the lib Dems put up a candidate that isn't Chuka I'll vote for them. I'll never vote for the racist, Bailey.
Homicide is sharply down in London this year. But don’t let facts get in your way.
London not even in top 50 of murder cities, US have four, maybe he should look closer to home.
Even the US is not that murderous.
OTOH, the murder rates in Latin America and the Caribbean are horrendous.
If there is a by election it is foolish to make any assumption about the outcome based on opinion polls.
1. It is a byelection (obviously) 2. It’s a wide spread, rural community making canvassing difficult and require boots on the ground. 3. Will require local candidate with knowledge of local issues 4. Will have little to do with the outcome of the Tory leadership outcome.
I don’t know the place so there will be other factors which give better reasons for predicting the result than using polls.
The LibDem candidate will be their current leader in Wales, born in Wrexham, a Welsh speaker who fought Montgomery (or whatever it is called now) last time.
It is called Montgomeryshire.
Jane Dodds does not live in the Brecon & Radnor constituency.
She lives in Welshpool. I have never heard her speak Welsh.
Mr. HYUFD, compare how many know who Boris is to how many know who Rory is. That recognition has an effect. Boris might still be ahead, even if Rory were better known, but we don't know either way.
I think Stewart is the only candidate who could challenge Boris for appeal in Scotland yes and indeed Rory already polls better in Scotland than in England.
What is clear however is Hunt does terribly in Scotland, the Foreign Secretary leading the Tories to just 19%, even Gove and Raab do better in Scotland than Hunt does (albeit the former helped by his Scottish roots)
Re televised debates. If I were a politician from a rival party, I’d be a bit put out that the Conservatives are getting three hours of prime time exposure for free. It must give whoever becomes leader an edge if there were an election this year.
Ed Davey has already made a formal complaint
When is the televised debate for the Lib Dem leadership?
That's depressing. But he has less time so there'll be less faffing about.
It’s the right thing to do surely? May just didn’t have the charisma to sell a deal or the cojones to leave on no deal if MPs refused to consent to us leaving with a deal
Re televised debates. If I were a politician from a rival party, I’d be a bit put out that the Conservatives are getting three hours of prime time exposure for free. It must give whoever becomes leader an edge if there were an election this year.
Mr. HYUFD, much of that will be down to name recognition, though, which rather muddies the waters.
Given the Foreign Secretary gets the Tories to just 19% in Scotland below the Home Secretary on 22%, Rory Stewart on 21% and Boris on 28% it is not just name recognition, no
Are you quoting subsets or real Scottish polling?
Subsets are real Scottish polling even if not as wide ranging as a Scotland only poll
Subsets are fun to look at, but they're not weighted, so they're not "real polling" in the same way as a Scotland-only poll. Even if they were, the size of the sample means that the uncertainties are much larger than the differences you are pointing to.
Trump skewering Khan on violence again and Khan still has no fucking clue. Honestly if the lib Dems put up a candidate that isn't Chuka I'll vote for them. I'll never vote for the racist, Bailey.
Trump would be well advised to concentrate on gun crime in the US before he starts lecturing anyone else on murder rates. Does anyone think he would be bothered attacking the Mayor of "Londonistan" (as he calls it) if he wasn't a muslim?
If there is a by election it is foolish to make any assumption about the outcome based on opinion polls.
1. It is a byelection (obviously) 2. It’s a wide spread, rural community making canvassing difficult and require boots on the ground. 3. Will require local candidate with knowledge of local issues 4. Will have little to do with the outcome of the Tory leadership outcome.
I don’t know the place so there will be other factors which give better reasons for predicting the result than using polls.
The LibDem candidate will be their current leader in Wales, born in Wrexham, a Welsh speaker who fought Montgomery (or whatever it is called now) last time.
It is called Montgomeryshire.
Jane Dodds does not live in the Brecon & Radnor constituency.
She lives in Welshpool. I have never heard her speak Welsh.
Hmmm .. it is bit like the embarrassing Anglophone Canadian politicians who mumble a few incoherent French words on their trip to Montreal or Quebec City to show that they are really Canadiens as well.
You’d think the 10% threshold should be reached. Two recalls in a calendar year would suggest this might become a thing.
Given the precedent of their refusal to accept the referendum result, if The Brexit Party ever won a seat I’d expect 10% of the constituents to instantly demand a recall every time
MPs can only be recalled in very limited circumstances.
Incidentally, I was wryly amused to see you citing opinion polls last night. Though the point you made was absolutely correct, and points to something important.
That no one talks about Brexit party leading in them? I wasn’t citing them to prove anything or saying they were accurate, but to highlight how they aren’t mentioned by people who believe in them when the bad guys are doing well
They’re telling us that the Brexit party are consistently polling far better in Westminster polls than UKIP ever did. That is important and suggests a ceiling has been broken through. It may well not be permanent but it is a shift.
Boris though gets the Brexit Party at least back to UKIP 2015 levels with Yougov
We’ll see. You’d have thought if that were true you’d see a shift already. Everyone is expecting Boris Johnson to win.
May is still Tory leader though of course on today's Yougov it would be Farage as Kingmaker between the Tories and Labour even with the Tory voteshare up on the last poll
Farage has almost never converted vote share into seats whatever party he has been with. Remember at GE2015 13% of the GB vote but just one seat and that one didn't last long. Carswell detached himself not long after.
Not at Westminster elections no only at European elections.
Of course if the Brexit Party vote falls back that largely goes to the Tories
Comments
If he had been sensible he could have asked for two invoices in the first place. But it sounds like his expenses were in a horrendous mess and he had already had his IPSA card suspended until he sorted it out.
That's to say, it would start well on a big stretch of open water, then the sides would narrow and when it was too late to turn round there would be reality looming in the form of hard rocks.
Once the ship was impaled on them, it would be left there for all time many miles from its destination while people pointed, and laughed at the stupidity of the captain for not knowing Loch Broom doesn't lead to Inverness.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/16/rory-stewart-reveals-secret-success-wife-has-quietly-running/
Waived, more like.....
The only candidate who gives the impression that he is interested in and likes the people of this country is Rory. That is almost certainly not enough to make him leader nor does it mean that he would be a good PM. But by comparison with so many other politicians it really stands out.
Probably Tory but it is near impossible to know for sure.
1. It is a byelection (obviously)
2. It’s a wide spread, rural community making canvassing difficult and require boots on the ground.
3. Will require local candidate with knowledge of local issues
4. Will have little to do with the outcome of the Tory leadership outcome.
I don’t know the place so there will be other factors which give better reasons for predicting the result than using polls.
Incidentally, I was wryly amused to see you citing opinion polls last night. Though the point you made was absolutely correct, and points to something important.
But I think it's a bit unfair to call him continuity May. May has some good points.
Suggests Ruth Davidson should be more worried about a Hunt led Tories than a Boris led Tory Party
For example, in this case there's an issue over whether - if it goes ahead - the sitting MP stands again. If so, there's an open question over whether he's seen as being somewhat unfairly pilloried over a technicality, or as being fundamentally dishonest enough to forge an invoice.
If the BRP could not win Peterborough, then they certainly can't win B&R.
How long into a Boris premiership will it be before we start to look back at her time in office with nostalgia?
Davidson's worry isn't about the first poll under the new leader. It's about the risk that the new leader says or does something as PM that mortally offends proud, centre-right Scots at some point within his first six months. And there's one candidate who is MUCH more likely to do that than the others.
He's the second worst of the remaining contenders.
Rory’s offering is clearly distinguished from Boris’s. He is sharp and penetrating in his speeches and I’ll guess a good questioner and will put Boris on the spot by pointing out the inconsistencies and fantasies in Boris’s stated position. Plus his politeness and persistence could contrast nicely with Boris’s bluster.
He is a relative unknown so has much to gain. Boris has more to lose.
It would be more of a proper debate about what sort of Conservatism there should be than a debate between two people who think that they should somehow be entitled to be leader just because.
The presiding judge said that she certainly perverted her brother's justice (perverting the course of justice regarding speeding offences), but he was not sure whether Fiona was involved in the original crime. Quite why the jury weren't asked two separate questions, I don't know (I have my suspicions).
So this puts a slightly different complexion on things. As mentioned earlier, the speeding points were pinned on some innocent Russian. If you think Fiona Onasanya was party to this crime, then that's quite serious because she would have had time to think about her actions. If, however, she was "only" guilty of protecting her brother, then one might have slightly more sympathy for her.
It's the dogmatic smackhead if that's the one that's on.
Jane Dodds does not live in the Brecon & Radnor constituency.
She lives in Welshpool. I have never heard her speak Welsh.
It has all the credibility of a manifesto costing from Labour.
Threatening the EU with an action that makes the UK look like a Banana Republic and will eventually bring down the government is unlikely to have Brussels quaking in their boots !
Incidentally, is that LibDem literature in the picture? If so, I am amused to see the LibDems quoting the Murdoch press approvingly. Whatever happened to Vince "I have declared war on Rupert Murdoch" Cable?
I'll get my coat...
Have a good morning.
She started her last conference speech with "Gynhadledd… Gynhadledd ddiolch i chi bawb am ddod heddiw. Dyma fy nhrydedd gynhadledd fel arweinydd ac mae’r angerdd a’r brwdfrydedd sydd gennym yn ein plaid wedi creu cymaint o argraff arnaf."
Would be incredibly dumb to stand in Montgomeryshire and put in your leaflets that you are a welsh speaker, if you are not.
I know it does not fit diehard Remainers whinges about how Boris is less popular than Edward IInd in Scotland but tough those are the facts.
The average 2017 Scottish Tory was not some young urban anti Brexit social liberal but actually a pensioner living in a rural area or market town and a social conservative and very likely a Leave voter and many of them are now voting Brexit Party.
So Boris boosts the Tories vote in Scotland just as he does in the rest of the UK
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1140181021146718208?s=20
What is different is that the Lib Dems were below 20% then and around 20% now, so support that left them third in 2014 has them first in 2019. At the EU elections Farage's lot received nearly 1 million more votes than in 2014. If the same is true for the next GE compared to 2015 then he would be approaching 5 million votes, or about 15% at GE2017 turnout levels.
How to explain the discrepancy with the opinion polls?
* EU elections boost.
* Lack of ground organisation.
* Anti-Labour tactical voting.
* General election on politics other than Brexit.
It might work out that way.
Jane Dodds still does not live in the B&R constituency.
In every mid-Walian election she has so far stood in, she has lost vote share and the LibDems have moved backwards.
In Montgomeryshire, she was famous for wanting to cover the constituency with windfarms. Something of great importance to LibDems in Richmond on Thames, but Montgomeryshire was less enthusiastic.
OTOH, the murder rates in Latin America and the Caribbean are horrendous.
https://www.facebook.com/welshlibdems/videos/jane-dodds-christmas-video/10155193050180878/
What is clear however is Hunt does terribly in Scotland, the Foreign Secretary leading the Tories to just 19%, even Gove and Raab do better in Scotland than Hunt does (albeit the former helped by his Scottish roots)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2019/06/16/left-planning-war-inheritance-tories-must-unite/
Trump would be well advised to concentrate on gun crime in the US before he starts lecturing anyone else on murder rates. Does anyone think he would be bothered attacking the Mayor of "Londonistan" (as he calls it) if he wasn't a muslim?
Of course if the Brexit Party vote falls back that largely goes to the Tories