The last thing the HofC wants is no deal Brexit with inadequate preparation.
Rather a slim chance, but suppose new tory leader was unable to command confidence of the house and neither could Corbyn leading to new general election. If there was no majority or coalition that could be formed, do we crash out with inadequate preparation and no-one has authority to send A50 revocation letter to prevent this?
Should T May send in or seek HofC approval for sending a conditional A50 revocation letter if and only if these circumstances happen?
I have a little money on Mrs May still being PM in the fourth quarter at 170/1. Given her track record and the major constitutional uncertainties I think it is value. I haven't bet the house on it!
Mr. HYUFD, compare how many know who Boris is to how many know who Rory is. That recognition has an effect. Boris might still be ahead, even if Rory were better known, but we don't know either way.
I think Stewart is the only candidate who could challenge Boris for appeal in Scotland yes and indeed Rory already polls better in Scotland than in England.
What is clear however is Hunt does terribly in Scotland, the Foreign Secretary leading the Tories to just 19%, even Gove and Raab do better in Scotland than Hunt does (albeit the former helped by his Scottish roots)
Scots are racist?
No but they like their own e.g. Brown won a landslide in Scotland in 2010 despite losing power nationally
They are not racist... but they prefer someone of their own race?
Umm...
Aside from the peurile notion that the Scots are a 'race', any reason that Scots didn't show much of a preference for those fine examples of the Scotch race, IDS, Cameron and Blair?
Please don't forget Kinnock. We Welsh refuse to take responsibility for that money-grabbing clan. [..]
Will you take responsibility for William Wallace?
Nobody should be forced to take responsibility for Braveheart. I think it's fair to say Mel Gibson blue it.
Mr. HYUFD, compare how many know who Boris is to how many know who Rory is. That recognition has an effect. Boris might still be ahead, even if Rory were better known, but we don't know either way.
I think Stewart is the only candidate who could challenge Boris for appeal in Scotland yes and indeed Rory already polls better in Scotland than in England.
What is clear however is Hunt does terribly in Scotland, the Foreign Secretary leading the Tories to just 19%, even Gove and Raab do better in Scotland than Hunt does (albeit the former helped by his Scottish roots)
Scots are racist?
No but they like their own e.g. Brown won a landslide in Scotland in 2010 despite losing power nationally
They are not racist... but they prefer someone of their own race?
Listening to Rory The Tory on the Farage LBC show, a sentence I never thought I'd type.
Notice Harry Cole seems to be talking him up on Twitter this morning, which is an interesting shift.
Did Farage soft pedal? I have a notion he wouldn’t mind a Remainer as Tory leader
Seemed pretty soft. Lots of the listeners ringing in seemed to have a lot of time for Stewart. They pressed him on Brexit pretty hard, but it was all respectful.
On the contrary. If Boris implodes which must be strong favourite Rory will be one of the very few Tories left with his integrity intact. And he's good! He doesn't look it but flares looked stupid till they didn't.
I think Rory might win. From what I've seen of Boris he's unimpressive. I'd be surprised if he survives four weeks of scrutiny.
Boris remains the candidate most likely to spectacularly implode, especially if it looks like he's losing the momentum. He has little to no self-control.
Rory Stewart was very self composed when talking to Farage there, he's interesting. Would like to see him make it through the next ballot and go into the Tuesday debate.
He was kissing Fargage's butt big style. Came across as your usual vacant thick toff, mouthed lots of soundbites but said nothing. Back to being a nonentity soon.
The last thing the HofC wants is no deal Brexit with inadequate preparation.
Rather a slim chance, but suppose new tory leader was unable to command confidence of the house and neither could Corbyn leading to new general election. If there was no majority or coalition that could be formed, do we crash out with inadequate preparation and no-one has authority to send A50 revocation letter to prevent this?
Should T May send in or seek HofC approval for sending a conditional A50 revocation letter if and only if these circumstances happen?
I have a little money on Mrs May still being PM in the fourth quarter at 170/1. Given her track record and the major constitutional uncertainties I think it is value. I haven't bet the house on it!
That’s definitely worth a beer, the scenario where the new Con leader doesn’t command a majority in the Commons - but neither does anyone else - makes a late-September election probable with Mrs May staying on as a caretaker PM until after the election.
If, as discussed upthread, the Brecon seat is vacated by recall, we only need to lose two more Tory MPs (or the DUP) to force through a vote of no confidence in the government.
If there is a by election it is foolish to make any assumption about the outcome based on opinion polls.
1. It is a byelection (obviously) 2. It’s a wide spread, rural community making canvassing difficult and require boots on the ground. 3. Will require local candidate with knowledge of local issues 4. Will have little to do with the outcome of the Tory leadership outcome.
I don’t know the place so there will be other factors which give better reasons for predicting the result than using polls.
The LibDem candidate will be their current leader in Wales, born in Wrexham, a Welsh speaker who fought Montgomery (or whatever it is called now) last time.
It is called Montgomeryshire.
Jane Dodds does not live in the Brecon & Radnor constituency.
She lives in Welshpool. I have never heard her speak Welsh.
The last thing the HofC wants is no deal Brexit with inadequate preparation.
Rather a slim chance, but suppose new tory leader was unable to command confidence of the house and neither could Corbyn leading to new general election. If there was no majority or coalition that could be formed, do we crash out with inadequate preparation and no-one has authority to send A50 revocation letter to prevent this?
Should T May send in or seek HofC approval for sending a conditional A50 revocation letter if and only if these circumstances happen?
I have a little money on Mrs May still being PM in the fourth quarter at 170/1. Given her track record and the major constitutional uncertainties I think it is value. I haven't bet the house on it!
Trump skewering Khan on violence again and Khan still has no fucking clue. Honestly if the lib Dems put up a candidate that isn't Chuka I'll vote for them. I'll never vote for the racist, Bailey.
Jeremy Hunt also wants to negotiate a new deal with changes to the backstop. He says he would accept a no-deal Brexit if "there is no prospect of a deal by 31 October"
Whether Labour's people like it or not, the fact remains that we were left uniquely and grossly exposed to worldwide recession due to the laziness and complacency of government and regulators coupled with an unfunded spending spree immediately beforehand.
Admitting that isn't going to change the narrative. Refusing to admit it does however make them look like fools.
Nonsense on stilts. Britain's pre-crisis spending was not high by historical or international standards (and the word unfunded is meaningless in this context). The global financial crisis started in America where, you may be surprised to learn, our regulators have very little clout: none, in fact. Britain did, however, lead the international response to the crisis.
Whether Labour's people like it or not, the fact remains that we were left uniquely and grossly exposed to worldwide recession due to the laziness and complacency of government and regulators coupled with an unfunded spending spree immediately beforehand.
Admitting that isn't going to change the narrative. Refusing to admit it does however make them look like fools.
Nonsense on stilts. Britain's pre-crisis spending was not high by historical or international standards (and the word unfunded is meaningless in this context). The global financial crisis started in America where, you may be surprised to learn, our regulators have very little clout: none, in fact. Britain did, however, lead the international response to the crisis.
Gordon Brown saved the world
Says a man who also continues to insist Labour's last manifesto was fully costed.
Honestly, sometimes you come across as a more articulate version of Hyufd.
No it is a fact that Boris gets the Tories to a higher voteshare in Scotland than any other Tory leadership candidate.
I know it does not fit diehard Remainers whinges about how Boris is less popular than Edward IInd in Scotland but tough those are the facts.
The average 2017 Scottish Tory was not some young urban pro independence social liberal but actually a pensioner living in a rural area or market town and a social conservative and very likely a Leave voter and many of them are now voting Brexit Party.
So Boris boosts the Tories vote in Scotlsnd just as he does in the rest of the UK
How can it be a "fact" when it hasn't been tested, and never will, at least in this universe?
We know the Tories were 4th in the European Parliament elections in Scotland behind the SNP, the Brexit Party and the LDs so a generic Tory will not do, Boris is is does)
The conclusion is your opinion, not a fact at all.
No it is a fact based on the polling and the rise of the Brexit Party in Scotland, just you dislike the facts
Your comment exemplifies the problem with so many of your posts on here. There is no such thing as a "fact based on polling".
Polling is merely an indication, subject to lots of caveats and a significant degree of error. Polling about leaders who aren't even in post is even more flaky, and can never be proven right or wrong since we will never get to compare different leaders' performances in the same election. How a leader performs in office can be very different from what people may be expecting, even if they have heard of the person to begin with.
What it does show though is that the argument of some on here that the Tories face guaranteed disaster in Scotland under Boris is complete rubbish and I will continue to make that point
Bottom line is that Boris will get a honeymoon, as would anyone ...
Hasn’t he already had more than his fair share ? There’s the whole law of diminishing returns thing...
Jeremy Hunt also wants to negotiate a new deal with changes to the backstop.
I looked up Jeremy Hunt on Wikipedia, and it says he has been Foreign Secretary for nearly a year.
Did anyone else here realise that?
I thought it was more.
No - before last July it was Boris Johnson, who is another candidate in the leadership election.
Wikipedia also tells me that another of the candidates was actually Brexit Secretary until he resigned in protest against the Withdrawal Agreement he had negotiated.
Didn't a famous politician once say "It's a funny old world"?
Jeremy Hunt also wants to negotiate a new deal with changes to the backstop.
I looked up Jeremy Hunt on Wikipedia, and it says he has been Foreign Secretary for nearly a year.
Did anyone else here realise that?
I thought it was more.
No - before last July it was Boris Johnson, who is another candidate in the leadership election.
Wikipedia also tells me that another of the candidates was actually Brexit Secretary until he resigned in protest against the Withdrawal Agreement he had negotiated.
Didn't a famous politician once say "It's a funny old world"?
It probably just feels like more given how fast events have moved.
May probably feels she's had 7 years in office rather than 3.
The last thing the HofC wants is no deal Brexit with inadequate preparation.
Rather a slim chance, but suppose new tory leader was unable to command confidence of the house and neither could Corbyn leading to new general election. If there was no majority or coalition that could be formed, do we crash out with inadequate preparation and no-one has authority to send A50 revocation letter to prevent this?
Should T May send in or seek HofC approval for sending a conditional A50 revocation letter if and only if these circumstances happen?
I have a little money on Mrs May still being PM in the fourth quarter at 170/1. Given her track record and the major constitutional uncertainties I think it is value. I haven't bet the house on it!
I think that may prove a smart bet.
October Exit for TM is worth 13k to me, I could do with that!
I think you & I agree that he should pledge £350m a week extra than 2016 level to the NHS? Let the over 75s off their tv licence and Con Maj nailed on!
The whole of Argentina and Uruguay without power. Can you imagine? What a shambles. Just those two countries thankfully. Venezuela is fine.
I think you mean, 'Venezuela is unaffected by this particular power outage.'
I would not say a country in the grip of civil unrest, famine, power outages, rampant corruption and run by a violent thug who would be out of his intellectual and moral depth as clerk to Penkridge Parish Council is 'fine.'
They don't say that it was crooked, or that it was stolen by one side or the other, but they do have some concerns that should be acted on.
"wondering" seems to cover that
Bit boring. Their only concern seems to be about people's taking photos of their completed ballot paper. I thought it would be a bit more Nigel Woz Robbed.
It is extraordinary that MS Dhoni, a truly great one day batsman with an average of 50, has played 50% more innings than Kohli and yet scored 500 fewer runs.
If Viv Richards was for many years the greatest ODI batsman of all time, Kohli has surely usurped him now.
The whole of Argentina and Uruguay without power. Can you imagine? What a shambles. Just those two countries thankfully. Venezuela is fine.
I think you mean, 'Venezuela is unaffected by this particular power outage.'
I would not say a country in the grip of civil unrest, famine, power outages, rampant corruption and run by a violent thug who would be out of his intellectual and moral depth as clerk to Penkridge Parish Council is 'fine.'
Venezuela has more than its fair share of power outages
It is extraordinary that MS Dhoni, a truly great one day batsman with an average of 50, has played 50% more innings than Kohli and yet scored 500 fewer runs.
If Viv Richards was for many years the greatest ODI batsman of all time, Kohli has surely usurped him now.
It was silly of me to call Mahendra Singh Dhoni a truly great one day batsman, wasn't it?
I would not say a country in the grip of civil unrest, famine, power outages, rampant corruption and run by a violent thug who would be out of his intellectual and moral depth as clerk to Penkridge Parish Council is 'fine.'
That remains the case, yes, but I was specifically commenting on the breaking news that Venezuela has not, unlike Argentina and Uruguay, lost its entire power supply today.
I would not say a country in the grip of civil unrest, famine, power outages, rampant corruption and run by a violent thug who would be out of his intellectual and moral depth as clerk to Penkridge Parish Council is 'fine.'
That remains the case, yes, but I was specifically commenting on the breaking news that Venezuela has not, unlike Argentina and Uruguay, lost its entire power supply today.
Well, yes, I got that far, but I think your language was perhaps a little thoughtless.
Pakistan have done very well the last 5-10 overs to keep them this quiet. The target still looks very gettable, although OT is of course one of the largest grounds out there.
If there is a by election it is foolish to make any assumption about the outcome based on opinion polls.
1. It is a byelection (obviously) 2. It’s a wide spread, rural community making canvassing difficult and require boots on the ground. 3. Will require local candidate with knowledge of local issues 4. Will have little to do with the outcome of the Tory leadership outcome.
I don’t know the place so there will be other factors which give better reasons for predicting the result than using polls.
The LibDem candidate will be their current leader in Wales, born in Wrexham, a Welsh speaker who fought Montgomery (or whatever it is called now) last time.
It is called Montgomeryshire.
Jane Dodds does not live in the Brecon & Radnor constituency.
She lives in Welshpool. I have never heard her speak Welsh.
Neither have I. Wikipedia says she can, FWIW
Whenever she speaks in public she normally starts off in Welsh.
If there is a by election it is foolish to make any assumption about the outcome based on opinion polls.
1. It is a byelection (obviously) 2. It’s a wide spread, rural community making canvassing difficult and require boots on the ground. 3. Will require local candidate with knowledge of local issues 4. Will have little to do with the outcome of the Tory leadership outcome.
I don’t know the place so there will be other factors which give better reasons for predicting the result than using polls.
The LibDem candidate will be their current leader in Wales, born in Wrexham, a Welsh speaker who fought Montgomery (or whatever it is called now) last time.
It is called Montgomeryshire.
Jane Dodds does not live in the Brecon & Radnor constituency.
She lives in Welshpool. I have never heard her speak Welsh.
Neither have I. Wikipedia says she can, FWIW
Whenever she speaks in public she normally starts off in Welsh.
Does she continue in it? Or answer spontaneous questions in it?
I can start off easily enough in Welsh, and I understand it reasonably well. But it would be going a bit far to say I can speak it.
That said, I don't know her, and I may be being unfair.
Pakistan have done very well the last 5-10 overs to keep them this quiet. The target still looks very gettable, although OT is of course one of the largest grounds out there.
Yep, India could (and should) have pushed for close to 400 given the number of wickets in hand only half an hour ago.
I think India need the rain to last for 75+ minutes. 327 in 46 overs would be a much steeper chase for Pakistan than anything they're likely to set off the full 50.
LibDems have actively been campaigning in B&R to secure the recall (as per Mike's pic), so I'd hope and expect it'll succeed.
In theory the 10% threshold should be a breeze for the yellow peril wafting through the historic liberal diaspora of that huge bucolic seat. However it's a normal trait of the LibDems to trail impending success and I don't believe we've heard much from the entrails of this campaign.
Are the LibDems struggling to get the voters to engage?
Wise words, young Jack, and who would know more about struggles to engage than your good self?
The offence of the sitting MP was not nearly so outrageous as the Peterborough case. I'd have thought 10,000 signatures is a lot to round up when the guy has already been punished. Only the politically motivated would be much moved to have him ousted and in rural Brecon I'm not sure there's enough such types.
Sure fire win for the LDs though if there is a bi.
So fraud is a lesser offence than speeding in your eyes.
The speeding wasn't the problem, was it? I thought it was the perjury and obstruction of justice.
I didn't follow the Davies case closely but had the impression it may have been more cock-up than conspiracy. Happy to be corrected if wrong.
He submitted a false invoice so he could claim £220 extra expenses. He had legitimate expenses of £700 but only £480 left in the budget. So created a receipt of £450 for that, then another one of £250 so he could claim the rest elsewhere. For this he was fined £1500 and ordered to do 50 hours community work. That seems about fair.
It was incredibly stupid and very wrong, but is rather different from breaking the law for no obvious reason, giving false evidence in a criminal matter and repeatedly lying about and racially abusing a judge.
What I don’t understand is why he didn’t duplicate the invoice and do a partial claim to both accounts?
I think India need the rain to last for 75+ minutes. 327 in 46 overs would be a much steeper chase for Pakistan than anything they're likely to set off the full 50.
I believe Pak would need to chase 186 off 20 overs if it came to that.
Perhaps not. Still, Brazil and Paraguay too now. Looks like Venezuela is a Latin American beacon in this respect. Not what one would have expected.
Seems power is being restored slowly and thankfully at least the problem occurred on a Sunday morning in daylight hours.
Still just looked at the BBC homepage - and its ranked lower as a headline story than 'Mum finds a hidden camera in the toilets at Costa Coffee in Chelmsford!' The Essex police have launched an investigation so we should by thankful and the mother has got free publicity for her campaign for improved cleanliness in public toilets. She apparently regularly reports videos and pictures of facilities that don't meet standards.
If there is a by election it is foolish to make any assumption about the outcome based on opinion polls.
1. It is a byelection (obviously) 2. It’s a wide spread, rural community making canvassing difficult and require boots on the ground. 3. Will require local candidate with knowledge of local issues 4. Will have little to do with the outcome of the Tory leadership outcome.
I don’t know the place so there will be other factors which give better reasons for predicting the result than using polls.
The LibDem candidate will be their current leader in Wales, born in Wrexham, a Welsh speaker who fought Montgomery (or whatever it is called now) last time.
It is called Montgomeryshire.
Jane Dodds does not live in the Brecon & Radnor constituency.
She lives in Welshpool. I have never heard her speak Welsh.
Neither have I. Wikipedia says she can, FWIW
Whenever she speaks in public she normally starts off in Welsh.
Does she continue in it? Or answer spontaneous questions in it?
I can start off easily enough in Welsh, and I understand it reasonably well. But it would be going a bit far to say I can speak it.
That said, I don't know her, and I may be being unfair.
A classic PB discussion that takes a factoid from the original post and spins off into a pained examination of essentially peripheral minutiae! (or in this case a minutia)
The original point was that there would be an advantage for a party with a strong local candidate in play. The LibDems selected way back and are already campaigning on the ground. The Tories can’t make a move while they stand by their existing MP. The Brexit Party, god knows what they actually have on the ground?
Maybe a statement of the obvious but it won't be as easy for the LDs to win a by-election in a large rural seat like Brecon & Radnorshire as it would be in an urban seat like Richmond Park or Cheadle.
What’s poor about it, he fundamentally disagrees with his stance . And doesn’t want any future leadership challenge being tainted by the stench of being part of the likely lunatic cabinet Bozo will put together .
That is what's poor about it. If he thinks it will be such a disaster, and the cabinet will be so full of right wing nut jobs, best to take the most responsible position that is offered, to alleviate the damage to country and party. To 'build bridges' that he professes to be so in favour of. It's called public service.
I think India need the rain to last for 75+ minutes. 327 in 46 overs would be a much steeper chase for Pakistan than anything they're likely to set off the full 50.
I believe Pak would need to chase 186 off 20 overs if it came to that.
With their firepower I think they could do that. Paradoxically, a chase at a slower run rate over more overs which would give India's attack and Kohli's skill in setting fields more time to work would I think be more difficult for them.
If there is a by election it is foolish to make any assumption about the outcome based on opinion polls.
1. It is a byelection (obviously) 2. It’s a wide spread, rural community making canvassing difficult and require boots on the ground. 3. Will require local candidate with knowledge of local issues 4. Will have little to do with the outcome of the Tory leadership outcome.
I don’t know the place so there will be other factors which give better reasons for predicting the result than using polls.
The LibDem candidate will be their current leader in Wales, born in Wrexham, a Welsh speaker who fought Montgomery (or whatever it is called now) last time.
It is called Montgomeryshire.
Jane Dodds does not live in the Brecon & Radnor constituency.
She lives in Welshpool. I have never heard her speak Welsh.
Neither have I. Wikipedia says she can, FWIW
Whenever she speaks in public she normally starts off in Welsh.
Does she continue in it? Or answer spontaneous questions in it?
I can start off easily enough in Welsh, and I understand it reasonably well. But it would be going a bit far to say I can speak it.
That said, I don't know her, and I may be being unfair.
A classic PB discussion that takes a factoid from the original post and spins off into a pained examination of essentially peripheral minutiae! (or in this case a minutia)
The original point was that there would be an advantage for a party with a strong local candidate in play. The LibDems selected way back and are already campaigning on the ground. The Tories can’t make a move while they stand by their existing MP. The Brexit Party, god knows what they actually have on the ground?
This is nonsense.
Jane Dodds is not local, she does not live in the constituency, and she has little in common with the majority of the constituents.
She would be the ideal LibDem candidate for the constituency of pb.com Central or Smithson North. She loves wind farms, she works for a charity, she is strong on identity politics.
She is a poor candidate for Brecon and Radnor.
The previous two LibDem MPs were LOCAL (i.e. live in Brecon & Radnor and had roots there) FARMERS.
Richard Livsey was a farmer, (and lecturer in agricultural science at Aberystwyth University). Roger Williams was a farmer and chair of Brecon and Radnor Farmers Union.
If the Tories choose a local who can speak to the farming vote, they will win.
He's also quite cleverly creating a face-off and sense of a final round between him and Johnson by doing that. The subtext is - "I can afford to make a gesture like this, as I represent the alternative."
What’s poor about it, he fundamentally disagrees with his stance . And doesn’t want any future leadership challenge being tainted by the stench of being part of the likely lunatic cabinet Bozo will put together .
That is what's poor about it. If he thinks it will be such a disaster, and the cabinet will be so full of right wing nut jobs, best to take the most responsible position that is offered, to alleviate the damage to country and party. To 'build bridges' that he professes to be so in favour of. It's called public service.
Fake unity is more destructive than disunity, and there's no point building bridges to a place you think is terrible. The 'I'll stay on and try to limit the damage' mindset is the same reason people who claim May got things so wrong stuck with her as long as they did, and they are pilloried for that now. Quelle surprise, when someone does not want to do that with Boris, it's a bad thing.
How is not serving to alleviate damage in a May Cabinet ok for Boris, but it is not ok for others to not want to serve in a Boris Cabinet? Boris even initially agreed at Chequers then changed his mind a few days later, rather than simply say he could not accept the path they were on. He even voted for the WA in the end, so it was in fact an acceptable if not ideal option for him, and he could have sought not to split the party for a year beforehand.
In short, the argument is a nonsense. Rory is certainly peddling some unreasiltic scenarios himself, and I don't agree with some of his solutions either, but the idea refusing to serve under someone whose policies he thinks would not be any good is poor form is laughable, particularly when people are criticised for doing so under May, and when the person he does not want to serve under quit the Cabinet rather than take 'the most responsibe position that is offered, to alleviate the damage to country and party'.
What’s poor about it, he fundamentally disagrees with his stance . And doesn’t want any future leadership challenge being tainted by the stench of being part of the likely lunatic cabinet Bozo will put together .
That is what's poor about it. If he thinks it will be such a disaster, and the cabinet will be so full of right wing nut jobs, best to take the most responsible position that is offered, to alleviate the damage to country and party. To 'build bridges' that he professes to be so in favour of. It's called public service.
Is it not possible to offer "public service" from the backbenches? The easy option would give the usual trite response and get a promotion within the cabinet.
What’s poor about it, he fundamentally disagrees with his stance . And doesn’t want any future leadership challenge being tainted by the stench of being part of the likely lunatic cabinet Bozo will put together .
That is what's poor about it. If he thinks it will be such a disaster, and the cabinet will be so full of right wing nut jobs, best to take the most responsible position that is offered, to alleviate the damage to country and party. To 'build bridges' that he professes to be so in favour of. It's called public service.
Fake unity is more destructive than disunity, and there's no point building bridges to a place you think is terrible. The 'I'll stay on and try to limit the damage' mindset is the same reason people who claim May got things so wrong stuck with her as long as they did, and they are pilloried for that now. Quelle surprise, when someone does not want to do that with Boris, it's a bad thing.
How is not serving to alleviate damage in a May Cabinet ok for Boris, but it is not ok for others to not want to serve in a Boris Cabinet? Boris even initially agreed at Chequers then changed his mind a few days later, rather than simply say he could not accept the path they were on. He even voted for the WA in the end, so it was in fact an acceptable if not ideal option for him, and he could have sought not to split the party for a year beforehand.
In short, the argument is a nonsense. Rory is certainly peddling some unreasiltic scenarios himself, and I don't agree with some of his solutions either, but the idea refusing to serve under someone whose policies he thinks would not be any good is poor form is laughable, particularly when people are criticised for doing so under May, and when the person he does not want to serve under quit the Cabinet rather than take 'the most responsibe position that is offered, to alleviate the damage to country and party'.
He's also quite cleverly creating a face-off and sense of a final round between him and Johnson by doing that. The subtext is - "I can afford to make a gesture like this, as I represent the alternative."
Jane Dodds is not local, she does not live in the constituency, and she has little in common with the majority of the constituents.
She would be the ideal LibDem candidate for the constituency of pb.com Central or Smithson North. She loves wind farms, she works for a charity, she is strong on identity politics.
She is a poor candidate for Brecon and Radnor.
The previous two LibDem MPs were LOCAL (i.e. live in Brecon & Radnor and had roots there) FARMERS.
Richard Livsey was a farmer, (and lecturer in agricultural science at Aberystwyth University). Roger Williams was a farmer and chair of Brecon and Radnor Farmers Union.
If the Tories choose a local who can speak to the farming vote, they will win.
Is the farming vote keen on a WTO BREXIT that would see vast imports of cheap tariff free agricultural products ?
If there is a by election it is foolish to make any assumption about the outcome based on opinion polls.
1. It is a byelection (obviously) 2. It’s a wide spread, rural community making canvassing difficult and require boots on the ground. 3. Will require local candidate with knowledge of local issues 4. Will have little to do with the outcome of the Tory leadership outcome.
I don’t know the place so there will be other factors which give better reasons for predicting the result than using polls.
The LibDem candidate will be their current leader in Wales, born in Wrexham, a Welsh speaker who fought Montgomery (or whatever it is called now) last time.
It is called Montgomeryshire.
Jane Dodds does not live in the Brecon & Radnor constituency.
She lives in Welshpool. I have never heard her speak Welsh.
Neither have I. Wikipedia says she can, FWIW
Whenever she speaks in public she normally starts off in Welsh.
Does she continue in it? Or answer spontaneous questions in it?
I can start off easily enough in Welsh, and I understand it reasonably well. But it would be going a bit far to say I can speak it.
That said, I don't know her, and I may be being unfair.
A classic PB discussion that takes a factoid from the original post and spins off into a pained examination of essentially peripheral minutiae! (or in this case a minutia)
The original point was that there would be an advantage for a party with a strong local candidate in play. The LibDems selected way back and are already campaigning on the ground. The Tories can’t make a move while they stand by their existing MP. The Brexit Party, god knows what they actually have on the ground?
This is nonsense.
Jane Dodds is not local, she does not live in the constituency, and she has little in common with the majority of the constituents.
She would be the ideal LibDem candidate for the constituency of pb.com Central or Smithson North. She loves wind farms, she works for a charity, she is strong on identity politics.
She is a poor candidate for Brecon and Radnor.
The previous two LibDem MPs were LOCAL (i.e. live in Brecon & Radnor and had roots there) FARMERS.
Richard Livsey was a farmer, (and lecturer in agricultural science at Aberystwyth University). Roger Williams was a farmer and chair of Brecon and Radnor Farmers Union.
If the Tories choose a local who can speak to the farming vote, they will win.
Be interesting to see that candidate answer the Gauke question on tariffs.
Can’t help feel that India could have accelerated earlier.
Pandya's dismissal suggests you feel rightly. They should have been looking at 400, they'll be lucky to get 340 here.
That is one of the reasons why England are perhaps the stronger batting side. India have equal talents, but don’t have the same won’t die wondering attitude.
Jane Dodds is not local, she does not live in the constituency, and she has little in common with the majority of the constituents.
She would be the ideal LibDem candidate for the constituency of pb.com Central or Smithson North. She loves wind farms, she works for a charity, she is strong on identity politics.
She is a poor candidate for Brecon and Radnor.
The previous two LibDem MPs were LOCAL (i.e. live in Brecon & Radnor and had roots there) FARMERS.
Richard Livsey was a farmer, (and lecturer in agricultural science at Aberystwyth University). Roger Williams was a farmer and chair of Brecon and Radnor Farmers Union.
If the Tories choose a local who can speak to the farming vote, they will win.
I notice that Jane Dodd's first entry into local politics was as a councillor in Richmond upon Thames - pb.com central you might say! Had things not gone pearshaped for the LDs locally post 2010 she might well have stayed there.
I'm probably not the only person whose read tweets from Lib Dems today hinting that there's a new financial scandal to come out shortly about Farage. No way of telling if they are true of course. But it is odd that the Brexit Party hasn't signed up to any groupings in the EU parliament yet. You'd have thought they'd be only too happy to get the extra funding.
Jane Dodds is not local, she does not live in the constituency, and she has little in common with the majority of the constituents.
She would be the ideal LibDem candidate for the constituency of pb.com Central or Smithson North. She loves wind farms, she works for a charity, she is strong on identity politics.
She is a poor candidate for Brecon and Radnor.
The previous two LibDem MPs were LOCAL (i.e. live in Brecon & Radnor and had roots there) FARMERS.
Richard Livsey was a farmer, (and lecturer in agricultural science at Aberystwyth University). Roger Williams was a farmer and chair of Brecon and Radnor Farmers Union.
If the Tories choose a local who can speak to the farming vote, they will win.
Is the farming vote keen on a WTO BREXIT that would see vast imports of cheap tariff free agricultural products ?
Jane Dodds is not local, she does not live in the constituency, and she has little in common with the majority of the constituents.
She would be the ideal LibDem candidate for the constituency of pb.com Central or Smithson North. She loves wind farms, she works for a charity, she is strong on identity politics.
She is a poor candidate for Brecon and Radnor.
The previous two LibDem MPs were LOCAL (i.e. live in Brecon & Radnor and had roots there) FARMERS.
Richard Livsey was a farmer, (and lecturer in agricultural science at Aberystwyth University). Roger Williams was a farmer and chair of Brecon and Radnor Farmers Union.
If the Tories choose a local who can speak to the farming vote, they will win.
Is the farming vote keen on a WTO BREXIT that would see vast imports of cheap tariff free agricultural products ?
I have no idea.
Is the (yet to be selected) Tory candidate for Brecon and Radnor actually arguing for a WTO BREXIT ?
I think a Welsh farming seat should be represented by a Welsh farmer.
Incidentally, I made the same point some time ago about the neighbouring constituency of Montgomeryshire.
I said if the LibDems continue to choose London metropolitans with no connection to the seat (Carlisle, Opik), they would end up losing it.
The Tories finally wised up and choose a Welsh-speaking farmer, and hey presto, the Montgomeryshire seat is now very safe for the Tories.
What’s poor about it, he fundamentally disagrees with his stance . And doesn’t want any future leadership challenge being tainted by the stench of being part of the likely lunatic cabinet Bozo will put together .
That is what's poor about it. If he thinks it will be such a disaster, and the cabinet will be so full of right wing nut jobs, best to take the most responsible position that is offered, to alleviate the damage to country and party. To 'build bridges' that he professes to be so in favour of. It's called public service.
Boris on day one of his pmship is going to commit to things which Rory is unable to support. So either he resigns on day one, or you are proposing abolishing the doctrine of collective cabinet responsibility. Which?
What’s poor about it, he fundamentally disagrees with his stance . And doesn’t want any future leadership challenge being tainted by the stench of being part of the likely lunatic cabinet Bozo will put together .
That is what's poor about it. If he thinks it will be such a disaster, and the cabinet will be so full of right wing nut jobs, best to take the most responsible position that is offered, to alleviate the damage to country and party. To 'build bridges' that he professes to be so in favour of. It's called public service.
Like Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab did, you mean?
If there is a by election it is foolish to make any assumption about the outcome based on opinion polls.
1. It to do with the outcome of the Tory leadership outcome.
I don’t know the place so there will be other factors which give better reasons for predicting the result than using polls.
The LibDem candidate will be their current leader in Wales, born in Wrexham, a Welsh speaker who fought Montgomery (or whatever it is called now) last time.
It is called Montgomeryshire.
Jane Dodds does not live in the Brecon & Radnor constituency.
She lives in Welshpool. I have never heard her speak Welsh.
Neither have I. Wikipedia says she can, FWIW
Whenever she speaks in public she normally starts off in Welsh.
Does she continue in it? Or answer spontaneous questions in it?
I can start off easily enough in Welsh, and I understand it reasonably well. But it would be going a bit far to say I can speak it.
That said, I don't know her, and I may be being unfair.
A classic PB discussion that takes a factoid from the original post and spins off into a pained examination of essentially peripheral minutiae! (or in this case a minutia)
The original point was that there would be an advantage for a party with a strong local candidate in play. The LibDems selected way back and are already campaigning on the ground. The Tories can’t make a move while they stand by their existing MP. The Brexit Party, god knows what they actually have on the ground?
This is nonsense.
Jane Dodds is not local, she does not live in the constituency, and she has little in common with the majority of the constituents.
She would be the ideal LibDem candidate for the constituency of pb.com Central or Smithson North. She loves wind farms, she works for a charity, she is strong on identity politics.
She is a poor candidate for Brecon and Radnor.
The previous two LibDem MPs were LOCAL (i.e. live in Brecon & Radnor and had roots there) FARMERS.
Richard Livsey was a farmer, (and lecturer in agricultural science at Aberystwyth University). Roger Williams was a farmer and chair of Brecon and Radnor Farmers Union.
If the Tories choose a local who can speak to the farming vote, they will win.
Having a local candidate certainly helps, but let's not get carried away by farming, which employs a small minority even of a rural area like Brecon.
Jane Dodds is not local, she does not live in the constituency, and she has little in common with the majority of the constituents.
She would be the ideal LibDem candidate for the constituency of pb.com Central or Smithson North. She loves wind farms, she works for a charity, she is strong on identity politics.
She is a poor candidate for Brecon and Radnor.
The previous two LibDem MPs were LOCAL (i.e. live in Brecon & Radnor and had roots there) FARMERS.
Richard Livsey was a farmer, (and lecturer in agricultural science at Aberystwyth University). Roger Williams was a farmer and chair of Brecon and Radnor Farmers Union.
If the Tories choose a local who can speak to the farming vote, they will win.
Is the farming vote keen on a WTO BREXIT that would see vast imports of cheap tariff free agricultural products ?
I have no idea.
Is the (yet to be selected) Tory candidate for Brecon and Radnor actually arguing for a WTO BREXIT ?
I think a Welsh farming seat should be represented by a Welsh farmer.
Incidentally, I made the same point some time ago about the neighbouring constituency of Montgomeryshire.
I said if the LibDems continue to choose London metropolitans with no connection to the seat (Carlisle, Opik), they would end up losing it.
The Tories finally wised up and choose a Welsh-speaking farmer, and hey presto, the Montgomeryshire seat is now very safe for the Tories.
The farming vote in NI is certainly against WTO, at least the ones Rory met. They are terrified of the tariffs on meat.
If there is a by election it is foolish to make any assumption about the outcome based on opinion polls.
1. It is a byelection (obviously) 2. It’s a wide spread, rural community making canvassing difficult and require boots on the ground. 3. Will require local candidate with knowledge of local issues 4. Will have little to do with the outcome of the Tory leadership outcome.
I don’t know the place so there will be other factors which give better reasons for predicting the result than using polls.
The LibDem candidate will be their current leader in Wales, born in Wrexham, a Welsh speaker who fought Montgomery (or whatever it is called now) last time.
It is called Montgomeryshire.
Jane Dodds does not live in the Brecon & Radnor constituency.
She lives in Welshpool. I have never heard her speak Welsh.
Neither have I. Wikipedia says she can, FWIW
Whenever she speaks in public she normally starts off in Welsh.
Does she continue in it? Or answer spontaneous questions in it?
I can start off easily enough in Welsh, and I understand it reasonably well. But it would be going a bit far to say I can speak it.
That said, I don't know her, and I may be being unfair.
Not quite sure what the issue is, 80% of Welsh people don't speak Welsh and fear of being ruled by the Welsh-speaking mafia is, in my opinion, what has prevented Plaid Cymru emulating the SNP. I say that as a Welshman by the way.
Jane Dodds is not local, she does not live in the constituency, and she has little in common with the majority of the constituents.
She would be the ideal LibDem candidate for the constituency of pb.com Central or Smithson North. She loves wind farms, she works for a charity, she is strong on identity politics.
She is a poor candidate for Brecon and Radnor.
The previous two LibDem MPs were LOCAL (i.e. live in Brecon & Radnor and had roots there) FARMERS.
Richard Livsey was a farmer, (and lecturer in agricultural science at Aberystwyth University). Roger Williams was a farmer and chair of Brecon and Radnor Farmers Union.
If the Tories choose a local who can speak to the farming vote, they will win.
Is the farming vote keen on a WTO BREXIT that would see vast imports of cheap tariff free agricultural products ?
I have no idea.
Is the (yet to be selected) Tory candidate for Brecon and Radnor actually arguing for a WTO BREXIT ?
I think a Welsh farming seat should be represented by a Welsh farmer.
Incidentally, I made the same point some time ago about the neighbouring constituency of Montgomeryshire.
I said if the LibDems continue to choose London metropolitans with no connection to the seat (Carlisle, Opik), they would end up losing it.
The Tories finally wised up and choose a Welsh-speaking farmer, and hey presto, the Montgomeryshire seat is now very safe for the Tories.
Well if they stick with Davies he is an ERG member so may have to answer the question
Fake unity is more destructive than disunity, and there's no point building bridges to a place you think is terrible. The 'I'll stay on and try to limit the damage' mindset is the same reason people who claim May got things so wrong stuck with her as long as they did, and they are pilloried for that now. Quelle surprise, when someone does not want to do that with Boris, it's a bad thing.
How is not serving to alleviate damage in a May Cabinet ok for Boris, but it is not ok for others to not want to serve in a Boris Cabinet? Boris even initially agreed at Chequers then changed his mind a few days later, rather than simply say he could not accept the path they were on. He even voted for the WA in the end, so it was in fact an acceptable if not ideal option for him, and he could have sought not to split the party for a year beforehand.
In short, the argument is a nonsense. Rory is certainly peddling some unreasiltic scenarios himself, and I don't agree with some of his solutions either, but the idea refusing to serve under someone whose policies he thinks would not be any good is poor form is laughable, particularly when people are criticised for doing so under May, and when the person he does not want to serve under quit the Cabinet rather than take 'the most responsibe position that is offered, to alleviate the damage to country and party'.
One rule for Boris, one rule for others.
It isn't laughable in the slightest. People who stuck with May being pilloried is a good example - that consequence makes what they did more admirable not less. What you're suggesting is that Stewart would rather wash his hands of the whole affair than face potential brickbats. Which is frankly the opposite of the ideal of public service, and if he rates his own capabilities as highly as he seems to, deliberately witholding them amounts to a disgrace.
Secondly, what on earth has Boris' behaviour got to do with anything? I haven't held him up as any kind of example. To use that as a form of justification (which to be fair, Stewart hasn't done - I don't know what his line on it is) would be ridiculously peevish.
As for building bridges, you build them between positions that appear incompatible - you find common ground. Stewart's refusal to serve confirms a growing impression I have that Stewart's bridges lead from himself to himself.
Yes not sure he needed to say that. But any deal would still include something going through parliament . The problem for the Tories is that Farage will trash anything and scream betrayal unless it’s a WTO Brexit .
I think Stewart came across as too fawning to Farage and given most of his support is from the more pro EU wing sucking up to Farage is a bad move .
He needs to repair the damage so will need a good debate tonight .
Still the debate rages this afternoon between representatives of Blair/Brown government and Momentum kids. The latter just will not believe that the former did anything to help anyone.
I'm probably not the only person whose read tweets from Lib Dems today hinting that there's a new financial scandal to come out shortly about Farage. No way of telling if they are true of course. But it is odd that the Brexit Party hasn't signed up to any groupings in the EU parliament yet. You'd have thought they'd be only too happy to get the extra funding.
I thought Farage was in talks with the Italian 5 star movement - who haven't joined a group either - about recreating the EFDD group from the last parliament? Neither are a real fit for any other group and Farage certainly has made clear he doesn't want to join the Salvini/Le Pen group.
They would easily have the 25 MEPs needed but need to find at least one MEP from five other member states which may prove more difficult. And of course some may be reluctant to join a group which won't last the full four years as it would collapse if and when Brexit happens.
As for financial scandals about Farage - I am sure his financial arrangements and expenses will probably get more scrutiny than almost all the other MEPs from non Eurosceptic parties in Brussels combined. Brussels looks after their own.
When the Telegraph published a story saying if Tommy Robinson got elected to the EU parliament - which he stood little chance of doing - he would cost us £2 million in salaries and expenses I thought they sort of missed the real issue. The story was surely that each MEP will cost European taxpayers £2 million over their term in expenses, pension contributions, salaries and more! Bar Farage and Hannan - and a couple of the more colourful Kippers - could any one name a single other UK MEP from the last parliament and what they actually achieved. Most people would struggle to name one.
What’s poor about it, he fundamentally disagrees with his stance . And doesn’t want any future leadership challenge being tainted by the stench of being part of the likely lunatic cabinet Bozo will put together .
That is what's poor about it. If he thinks it will be such a disaster, and the cabinet will be so full of right wing nut jobs, best to take the most responsible position that is offered, to alleviate the damage to country and party. To 'build bridges' that he professes to be so in favour of. It's called public service.
Like Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab did, you mean?
Still the debate rages this afternoon between representatives of Blair/Brown government and Momentum kids. The latter just will not believe that the former did anything to help anyone.
It's annoying that the latter seem obsessed with redistribution and don't consider the importance of distributive effects in the economy, which is where the case against New Labour is strongest, particularly their insouciance about the housing bubble.
What’s poor about it, he fundamentally disagrees with his stance . And doesn’t want any future leadership challenge being tainted by the stench of being part of the likely lunatic cabinet Bozo will put together .
That is what's poor about it. If he thinks it will be such a disaster, and the cabinet will be so full of right wing nut jobs, best to take the most responsible position that is offered, to alleviate the damage to country and party. To 'build bridges' that he professes to be so in favour of. It's called public service.
Like Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab did, you mean?
Who's using them as an example?
My God, it comes to something when you can't even read the name on the top of the comment you're replying to!
Jane Dodds is not local, she does not live in the constituency, and she has little in common with the majority of the constituents.
She would be the ideal LibDem candidate for the constituency of pb.com Central or Smithson North. She loves wind farms, she works for a charity, she is strong on identity politics.
She is a poor candidate for Brecon and Radnor.
The previous two LibDem MPs were LOCAL (i.e. live in Brecon & Radnor and had roots there) FARMERS.
Richard Livsey was a farmer, (and lecturer in agricultural science at Aberystwyth University). Roger Williams was a farmer and chair of Brecon and Radnor Farmers Union.
If the Tories choose a local who can speak to the farming vote, they will win.
Is the farming vote keen on a WTO BREXIT that would see vast imports of cheap tariff free agricultural products ?
I have no idea.
Is the (yet to be selected) Tory candidate for Brecon and Radnor actually arguing for a WTO BREXIT ?
I think a Welsh farming seat should be represented by a Welsh farmer.
Incidentally, I made the same point some time ago about the neighbouring constituency of Montgomeryshire.
I said if the LibDems continue to choose London metropolitans with no connection to the seat (Carlisle, Opik), they would end up losing it.
The Tories finally wised up and choose a Welsh-speaking farmer, and hey presto, the Montgomeryshire seat is now very safe for the Tories.
I'll answer the question for you.
A Tory by-election candidate, on the back of a Boris WTO BREXIT, in a large rural seat with substantial farming interests will have to explain to farmers where they will sell their produce against vastly cheaper competition.
As far as the farming community, especially smaller farmers, is concerned the Conservative Taliban haven't thought the issue through.
I suppose Boris with his noted attention to detail will be able to give the issue his full attention - half a nano second - and get others to clear up the mess. Meanwhile farmers will go bust.
The subject is far too important than the issue of by-elections and your animus toward the LibDems and where the yellow peril candidate lives. Party politics be buggered because when the hullabaloo of a by-election is over there will be family livelihoods at stake.
If there is a by election it is foolish to make any assumption about the outcome based on opinion polls.
1. It is a byelection (obviously) 2. It’s a wide spread, rural community making canvassing difficult and require boots on the ground. 3. Will require local candidate with knowledge of local issues 4. Will have little to do with the outcome of the Tory leadership outcome.
I don’t know the place so there will be other factors which give better reasons for predicting the result than using polls.
The LibDem candidate will be their current leader in Wales, born in Wrexham, a Welsh speaker who fought Montgomery (or whatever it is called now) last time.
It is called Montgomeryshire.
Jane Dodds does not live in the Brecon & Radnor constituency.
She lives in Welshpool. I have never heard her speak Welsh.
Neither have I. Wikipedia says she can, FWIW
Whenever she speaks in public she normally starts off in Welsh.
Does she continue in it? Or answer spontaneous questions in it?
I can start off easily enough in Welsh, and I understand it reasonably well. But it would be going a bit far to say I can speak it.
That said, I don't know her, and I may be being unfair.
Not quite sure what the issue is, 80% of Welsh people don't speak Welsh and fear of being ruled by the Welsh-speaking mafia is, in my opinion, what has prevented Plaid Cymru emulating the SNP. I say that as a Welshman by the way.
Neil Hamilton is the best representative of this position in the Welsh Assembly.
Under the current circumstances, the Tories could select the Archangel Gabriel in Brecon and Radnor and he is still not going to win. Alex Carlile- a distinguished QC, not a farmer- held Montgomery for 14 years before he retired. Amongst other things Jane Dodds is a human rights activist, but has been campaigning on the ground for a while and is going well.
The "Are you local?" nonsense just shows how rattled the Tories are. Even with the "Boris surge" the Tories are barely 21%, and after the first major balls up, they will be back down into the teens.
The Liberal Democrats are going to throw the kitchen sink into any by election, and increasingly they have campaign money when Labour and the Tories do not..
What’s poor about it, he fundamentally disagrees with his stance . And doesn’t want any future leadership challenge being tainted by the stench of being part of the likely lunatic cabinet Bozo will put together .
That is what's poor about it. If he thinks it will be such a disaster, and the cabinet will be so full of right wing nut jobs, best to take the most responsible position that is offered, to alleviate the damage to country and party. To 'build bridges' that he professes to be so in favour of. It's called public service.
Like Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab did, you mean?
Who's using them as an example?
My God, it comes to something when you can't even read the name on the top of the comment you're replying to!
Jane Dodds is not local, she does not live in the constituency, and she has little in common with the majority of the constituents.
She would be the ideal LibDem candidate for the constituency of pb.com Central or Smithson North. She loves wind farms, she works for a charity, she is strong on identity politics.
She is a poor candidate for Brecon and Radnor.
The previous two LibDem MPs were LOCAL (i.e. live in Brecon & Radnor and had roots there) FARMERS.
Richard Livsey was a farmer, (and lecturer in agricultural science at Aberystwyth University). Roger Williams was a farmer and chair of Brecon and Radnor Farmers Union.
If the Tories choose a local who can speak to the farming vote, they will win.
Is the farming vote keen on a WTO BREXIT that would see vast imports of cheap tariff free agricultural products ?
I have no idea.
Is the (yet to be selected) Tory candidate for Brecon and Radnor actually arguing for a WTO BREXIT ?
I think a Welsh farming seat should be represented by a Welsh farmer.
Incidentally, I made the same point some time ago about the neighbouring constituency of Montgomeryshire.
I said if the LibDems continue to choose London metropolitans with no connection to the seat (Carlisle, Opik), they would end up losing it.
The Tories finally wised up and choose a Welsh-speaking farmer, and hey presto, the Montgomeryshire seat is now very safe for the Tories.
I'll answer the question for you.
A Tory by-election candidate, on the back of a Boris WTO BREXIT, in a large rural seat with substantial farming interests will have to explain to farmers where they will sell their produce against vastly cheaper competition.
As far as the farming community, especially smaller farmers, is concerned the Conservative Taliban haven't thought the issue through.
I suppose Boris with his noted attention to detail will be able to give the issue his full attention - half a nano second - and get others to clear up the mess. Meanwhile farmers will go bust.
The subject is far too important than the issue of by-elections and your animus toward the LibDems and where the yellow peril candidate lives. Party politics be buggered because when the hullabaloo of a by-election is over there will be family livelihoods at stake.
That is why it is important to have ****FARMERS**** as MPs.
Rather than yet another former charity worker ... or a lawyer, or a banker, or teacher.
Precisely because this view needs articulating by farmers.
And that is all I said -- a Welsh farming seat should be represented by a Welsh farmer.
I have no particular animus against the LibDems (any more than for Labour or the Tories) -- I would have voted for Richard Livsey.
Under the current circumstances, the Tories could select the Archangel Gabriel in Brecon and Radnor and he is still not going to win. Alex Carlile- a distinguished QC, not a farmer- held Montgomery for 14 years before he retired. Amongst other things Jane Dodds is a human rights activist, but has been campaigning on the ground for a while and is going well.
The "Are you local?" nonsense just shows how rattled the Tories are. Even with the "Boris surge" the Tories are barely 21%, and after the first major balls up, they will be back down into the teens.
The Liberal Democrats are going to throw the kitchen sink into any by election, and increasingly they have campaign money when Labour and the Tories do not..
The writ has to be moved by the Tories doesn't it? If there is a recall. Could they stall until autumn?
Jane Dodds is not local, she does not live in the constituency, and she has little in common with the majority of the constituents.
She would be the ideal LibDem candidate for the constituency of pb.com Central or Smithson North. She loves wind farms, she works for a charity, she is strong on identity politics.
She is a poor candidate for Brecon and Radnor.
The previous two LibDem MPs were LOCAL (i.e. live in Brecon & Radnor and had roots there) FARMERS.
Richard Livsey was a farmer, (and lecturer in agricultural science at Aberystwyth University). Roger Williams was a farmer and chair of Brecon and Radnor Farmers Union.
If the Tories choose a local who can speak to the farming vote, they will win.
Is the farming vote keen on a WTO BREXIT that would see vast imports of cheap tariff free agricultural products ?
I have no idea.
Is the (yet to be selected) Tory candidate for Brecon and Radnor actually arguing for a WTO BREXIT ?
I think a Welsh farming seat should be represented by a Welsh farmer.
Incidentally, I made the same point some time ago about the neighbouring constituency of Montgomeryshire.
I said if the LibDems continue to choose London metropolitans with no connection to the seat (Carlisle, Opik), they would end up losing it.
The Tories finally wised up and choose a Welsh-speaking farmer, and hey presto, the Montgomeryshire seat is now very safe for the Tories.
I'll answer the question for you.
A Tory by-election candidate, on the back of a Boris WTO BREXIT, in a large rural seat with substantial farming interests will have to explain to farmers where they will sell their produce against vastly cheaper competition.
As far as the farming community, especially smaller farmers, is concerned the Conservative Taliban haven't thought the issue through.
snip .
That is why it is important to have ****FARMERS**** as MPs.
Rather than yet another former charity worker ... or a lawyer, or a banker, or teacher.
Precisely because this view needs articulating by farmers.
And that is all I said -- a Welsh farming seat should be represented by a Welsh farmer.
I have no particular animus against the LibDems (any more than for Labour or the Tories) -- I would have voted for Richard Livsey.
Might not be so easy. I have no idea, but there may be a few members of local Liberal party who are actually farmers, but they might not fancy being an MP at all, never mind standing in a full TV-special by-election.
Yes not sure he needed to say that. But any deal would still include something going through parliament . The problem for the Tories is that Farage will trash anything and scream betrayal unless it’s a WTO Brexit .
I think Stewart came across as too fawning to Farage and given most of his support is from the more pro EU wing sucking up to Farage is a bad move .
He needs to repair the damage so will need a good debate tonight .
Rory Stewart had to deal with the warring factions in Iraq so Farage was a breeze. His offer is to bring the 52/48 together as far as possible so talking to Farage is appropriate.
Stewart's refusal to serve in a Boris "No Deal" government is because it is intent at all costs on 31st October of not bringing the nation together.
If, when Boris becomes PM, there isn't a significant uptick in Tory polling how long will it take for panic to set in and what form will it take? I can quite imagine Boris being urged to start talks with Nigel on a TBP-Tory pact, ostensibly to join forces against the greater danger of communist Jezza. But would Nigel play along?
Under the current circumstances, the Tories could select the Archangel Gabriel in Brecon and Radnor and he is still not going to win. Alex Carlile- a distinguished QC, not a farmer- held Montgomery for 14 years before he retired. Amongst other things Jane Dodds is a human rights activist, but has been campaigning on the ground for a while and is going well.
The "Are you local?" nonsense just shows how rattled the Tories are. Even with the "Boris surge" the Tories are barely 21%, and after the first major balls up, they will be back down into the teens.
The Liberal Democrats are going to throw the kitchen sink into any by election, and increasingly they have campaign money when Labour and the Tories do not..
A hilarious bulletin from Tallinn.
"Alex Carlile- a distinguished QC, not a farmer- held Montgomery for 14 years before he retired."
And he then LEFT the LibDems,
(Incidentally, and for the second time to a fanatical LibDem who knows nothing about Wales, the name of the seat is Montgomeryshire.)
Comments
Their Prime Minister will be displeased.
If, as discussed upthread, the Brecon seat is vacated by recall, we only need to lose two more Tory MPs (or the DUP) to force through a vote of no confidence in the government.
His position seems to change daily.
Gordon Brown saved the world
Honestly, sometimes you come across as a more articulate version of Hyufd.
https://twitter.com/matthewdancona/status/1139854904313438208?s=21
Did anyone else here realise that?
There’s the whole law of diminishing returns thing...
Wikipedia also tells me that another of the candidates was actually Brexit Secretary until he resigned in protest against the Withdrawal Agreement he had negotiated.
Didn't a famous politician once say "It's a funny old world"?
OK, so Nohit has hit and is out.
But now Hardik Pandya is in...
And Amir has four overs remaining.
May probably feels she's had 7 years in office rather than 3.
Nov or Dec 3k
I would not say a country in the grip of civil unrest, famine, power outages, rampant corruption and run by a violent thug who would be out of his intellectual and moral depth as clerk to Penkridge Parish Council is 'fine.'
If Viv Richards was for many years the greatest ODI batsman of all time, Kohli has surely usurped him now.
Pakistan have done very well the last 5-10 overs to keep them this quiet. The target still looks very gettable, although OT is of course one of the largest grounds out there.
I can start off easily enough in Welsh, and I understand it reasonably well. But it would be going a bit far to say I can speak it.
That said, I don't know her, and I may be being unfair.
https://twitter.com/DavidGauke?lang=en
https://twitter.com/KaiserOfCrisps/status/1140243084724383744
Still just looked at the BBC homepage - and its ranked lower as a headline story than 'Mum finds a hidden camera in the toilets at Costa Coffee in Chelmsford!' The Essex police have launched an investigation so we should by thankful and the mother has got free publicity for her campaign for improved cleanliness in public toilets. She apparently regularly reports videos and pictures of facilities that don't meet standards.
Bizarre!
The original point was that there would be an advantage for a party with a strong local candidate in play. The LibDems selected way back and are already campaigning on the ground. The Tories can’t make a move while they stand by their existing MP. The Brexit Party, god knows what they actually have on the ground?
Jane Dodds is not local, she does not live in the constituency, and she has little in common with the majority of the constituents.
She would be the ideal LibDem candidate for the constituency of pb.com Central or Smithson North. She loves wind farms, she works for a charity, she is strong on identity politics.
She is a poor candidate for Brecon and Radnor.
The previous two LibDem MPs were LOCAL (i.e. live in Brecon & Radnor and had roots there) FARMERS.
Richard Livsey was a farmer, (and lecturer in agricultural science at Aberystwyth University). Roger Williams was a farmer and chair of Brecon and Radnor Farmers Union.
If the Tories choose a local who can speak to the farming vote, they will win.
How is not serving to alleviate damage in a May Cabinet ok for Boris, but it is not ok for others to not want to serve in a Boris Cabinet? Boris even initially agreed at Chequers then changed his mind a few days later, rather than simply say he could not accept the path they were on. He even voted for the WA in the end, so it was in fact an acceptable if not ideal option for him, and he could have sought not to split the party for a year beforehand.
In short, the argument is a nonsense. Rory is certainly peddling some unreasiltic scenarios himself, and I don't agree with some of his solutions either, but the idea refusing to serve under someone whose policies he thinks would not be any good is poor form is laughable, particularly when people are criticised for doing so under May, and when the person he does not want to serve under quit the Cabinet rather than take 'the most responsibe position that is offered, to alleviate the damage to country and party'.
One rule for Boris, one rule for others.
"'We need to reach out to you': Rory Stewart personally asks Nigel Farage for a deal with the Brexit Party"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/16/need-reach-rory-stewart-personally-asks-nigel-farage-deal-brexit/
Is the (yet to be selected) Tory candidate for Brecon and Radnor actually arguing for a WTO BREXIT ?
I think a Welsh farming seat should be represented by a Welsh farmer.
Incidentally, I made the same point some time ago about the neighbouring constituency of Montgomeryshire.
I said if the LibDems continue to choose London metropolitans with no connection to the seat (Carlisle, Opik), they would end up losing it.
The Tories finally wised up and choose a Welsh-speaking farmer, and hey presto, the Montgomeryshire seat is now very safe for the Tories.
Secondly, what on earth has Boris' behaviour got to do with anything? I haven't held him up as any kind of example. To use that as a form of justification (which to be fair, Stewart hasn't done - I don't know what his line on it is) would be ridiculously peevish.
As for building bridges, you build them between positions that appear incompatible - you find common ground. Stewart's refusal to serve confirms a growing impression I have that Stewart's bridges lead from himself to himself.
I think Stewart came across as too fawning to Farage and given most of his support is from the more pro EU wing sucking up to Farage is a bad move .
He needs to repair the damage so will need a good debate tonight .
They would easily have the 25 MEPs needed but need to find at least one MEP from five other member states which may prove more difficult. And of course some may be reluctant to join a group which won't last the full four years as it would collapse if and when Brexit happens.
As for financial scandals about Farage - I am sure his financial arrangements and expenses will probably get more scrutiny than almost all the other MEPs from non Eurosceptic parties in Brussels combined. Brussels looks after their own.
When the Telegraph published a story saying if Tommy Robinson got elected to the EU parliament - which he stood little chance of doing - he would cost us £2 million in salaries and expenses I thought they sort of missed the real issue. The story was surely that each MEP will cost European taxpayers £2 million over their term in expenses, pension contributions, salaries and more! Bar Farage and Hannan - and a couple of the more colourful Kippers - could any one name a single other UK MEP from the last parliament and what they actually achieved. Most people would struggle to name one.
The quality of the candidate matters a lot in a by-election, and Davies is clearly an incredible fool. They can't fight the by-election with him.
If it is Davies versus Dodds, Dodds will win.
A Tory by-election candidate, on the back of a Boris WTO BREXIT, in a large rural seat with substantial farming interests will have to explain to farmers where they will sell their produce against vastly cheaper competition.
As far as the farming community, especially smaller farmers, is concerned the Conservative Taliban haven't thought the issue through.
I suppose Boris with his noted attention to detail will be able to give the issue his full attention - half a nano second - and get others to clear up the mess. Meanwhile farmers will go bust.
The subject is far too important than the issue of by-elections and your animus toward the LibDems and where the yellow peril candidate lives. Party politics be buggered because when the hullabaloo of a by-election is over there will be family livelihoods at stake.
The "Are you local?" nonsense just shows how rattled the Tories are. Even with the "Boris surge" the Tories are barely 21%, and after the first major balls up, they will be back down into the teens.
The Liberal Democrats are going to throw the kitchen sink into any by election, and increasingly they have campaign money when Labour and the Tories do not..
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1140250677324800001
Rather than yet another former charity worker ... or a lawyer, or a banker, or teacher.
Precisely because this view needs articulating by farmers.
And that is all I said -- a Welsh farming seat should be represented by a Welsh farmer.
I have no particular animus against the LibDems (any more than for Labour or the Tories) -- I would have voted for Richard Livsey.
Stewart's refusal to serve in a Boris "No Deal" government is because it is intent at all costs on 31st October of not bringing the nation together.
"Alex Carlile- a distinguished QC, not a farmer- held Montgomery for 14 years before he retired."
And he then LEFT the LibDems,
(Incidentally, and for the second time to a fanatical LibDem who knows nothing about Wales, the name of the seat is Montgomeryshire.)