politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest PB / Polling Matters podcast asks two big questions
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An interesting thought for people on both sides of the debate is what will happen if Bozo puts "No Deal" in the manifesto. What does the One Nation group do? Set out individual manifestos? Or just ignore it like those on the left of Labour used to do in the Blair days?0
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The EU would love that: an election a week before Brexit which could return a government that revokes Article 50.RochdalePioneers said:
September 5th isn't possible as Parliament wouldn't still be sitting to trigger an election on that date.eek said:Right if we are talking dates:-
Boris is elected on July 22nd.
Convention is to hold elections on a Thursday and there must be 25 working days thanks to the FTPA between an election being called and it being held.
That means to hold one on 29th August Parliament most agree to it (434 votes minimum) by July 23rd.
So August isn't a runner
September 5th is just about possible but I would expect it to be September 12th as I'm away then...
Parliament returns on the 5th, so elections in mid October onwards are the first opportunity. And what an opportunity for Bozza - "vote for me this Thursday (24th) and we leave the EU next Thursday (31st). Huzzah!"0 -
That makes little sense because there was no BXP candidate in 2017.Both Tory and Labour support would have been lower had there been such an option - or UKIP candidate.RochdalePioneers said:The cretins on The Labour Party [Facebook] Forum keep insisting we can ignore polls as WE WON PETERBOROUGH. So out of interest I have taken the Peterborough changes in that seat vs 2017, and replicated Labour's triumph across the country making those same changes vs the general election totals:
Con: 17% (-25%)
Lab: 23% (-17%)
LD: 16% (+9%)
BXP: 29% (+29%)
Electoral Calculus gives a Brexit Party majority of 66. Clearly #jc4pm as the cancer cult wazzocks keep insisting0 -
Where are you seeing that?paulyork64 said:
Ladbrokes have gone out with Johnson 10-1 to get under 130 votes in the second ballot.
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Yes, he played a spoof president on a TV show. I’ll be there in a couple of weeks, will report back.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Ukraine recently elected a TV comediankinabalu said:I liked Bernard Manning too. And yes there is a lot of him in Boris Johnson. Both very funny. Both about equally suitable to be PM.
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That's crazy talk.kinabalu said:
Meaning a 4 in 5 chance that as I slice the turkey this year - and as always refuse both to wear a paper hat and eat any parsnips - Boris Johnson is our PM.TOPPING said:I will have a lot of thinking to do. I loathe him and have said I would resign my membership if he becomes leader. But...but...Jeremy Corbyn as PM? Unfathomable.
So what are the scenarios ? I am going to do a @kinabalu to refine my thinking while writing.
1) Calls GE wins off he goes into the sunset (sans moi but he'll live with it)
2) Calls GE loses gets booted out
3) Doesn't call GE but then, as per @Mysticrose's arithmetic, has the sword of Damocles hanging over his head for the next three years.
I am torn. all logic says that the probabilities should be:
1) 40%
2) 40%
3) 20%
But you know my view on the WA being the only option possible and BoZo doing something creative PR-wise with it in which case the odds switch to:
1) 20%
2) 20%
3) 60%
I'm glad I've cleared that up for everyone. Your welcome.
Oh.
Trouble is, I think I agree. So thanks a bunch. For nothing.
Parsnips are delicious. As long as they are very very nearly roasted to a crisp. Get a grip of yourself man*.
*assumption, here.
Edit: fine with the no hat.0 -
BoZo is afraid to appear in front of a TV audience.
Corbyn did Glastonbury.
The General Election campaign is going to be mental...0 -
they are the Devil's foodTOPPING said:
That's crazy talk.kinabalu said:
Meaning a 4 in 5 chance that as I slice the turkey this year - and as always refuse both to wear a paper hat and eat any parsnips - Boris Johnson is our PM.TOPPING said:I will have a lot of thinking to do. I loathe him and have said I would resign my membership if he becomes leader. But...but...Jeremy Corbyn as PM? Unfathomable.
So what are the scenarios ? I am going to do a @kinabalu to refine my thinking while writing.
1) Calls GE wins off he goes into the sunset (sans moi but he'll live with it)
2) Calls GE loses gets booted out
3) Doesn't call GE but then, as per @Mysticrose's arithmetic, has the sword of Damocles hanging over his head for the next three years.
I am torn. all logic says that the probabilities should be:
1) 40%
2) 40%
3) 20%
But you know my view on the WA being the only option possible and BoZo doing something creative PR-wise with it in which case the odds switch to:
1) 20%
2) 20%
3) 60%
I'm glad I've cleared that up for everyone. Your welcome.
Oh.
Trouble is, I think I agree. So thanks a bunch. For nothing.
Parsnips are delicious. As long as they are very very nearly roasted to a crisp. Get a grip of yourself man*.
*assumption, here.0 -
they've taken that market down now.Stereotomy said:
Where are you seeing that?paulyork64 said:
Ladbrokes have gone out with Johnson 10-1 to get under 130 votes in the second ballot.0 -
I ought to be switching to LibDem if you're right. Fact I'll go further - if you're right I WILL switch to LibDem.viewcode said:Labour is becoming the party of the anti-Semites and not-bothered about the EU
Con is becoming the party of the anti-Muslims and the Leavers
Lib is becoming the party of the not-bothered-about-religion and the Remainers
Brexit is becoming the party of the not-bothered-about-religion and the Leavers
How the hell we ended up with that is an interesting story, but not one I will have the time to deduce any time soon...
PS: For clarity in case it read a bit weird, my 'Uncle Tom' ref had nothing to do with Jewish matters - I'm talking about the working class man who makes a few bob and goes true blue Tory.0 -
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Good afternoon, everyone.
Not enough time to check out the podcast today probably, but given the turbulent times it should be quite intriguing.0 -
What if Boris flat lines in the next round, only puts on 10 votes?0
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Yep - that's why an election only works if it's called in July when Parliament might be sitting - it doesn't need to go into recess....Chris said:
Hasn't he just said he's not aiming to leave without a deal? How could he do otherwise in those circumstances?RochdalePioneers said:
September 5th isn't possible as Parliament wouldn't still be sitting to trigger an election on that date.eek said:Right if we are talking dates:-
Boris is elected on July 22nd.
Convention is to hold elections on a Thursday and there must be 25 working days thanks to the FTPA between an election being called and it being held.
That means to hold one on 29th August Parliament most agree to it (434 votes minimum) by July 23rd.
So August isn't a runner
September 5th is just about possible but I would expect it to be September 12th as I'm away then...
Parliament returns on the 5th, so elections in mid October onwards are the first opportunity. And what an opportunity for Bozza - "vote for me this Thursday (24th) and we leave the EU next Thursday (31st). Huzzah!"
Or is the idea that he'll be negotiating a new deal at the same time as fighting a general election campaign?0 -
Big assumptionrottenborough said:
Nothing.peterbriffa said:Anyone know where this assumption that if someone does well in the leadership election that somehow guarantees them a place in the ensuing cabinet? I mean, if Boris ( or whoever ) doesn’t ask Hancock to be the teaboy, what the hell can Hancock do about it, other than fester on the backbenches?
But to actually get to run you must have demonstrated to colleagues some ability. So makes sense to use that knowledge. There is also the need to have a balanced Cabinet that represents the party (in normal times anyway).
Sam Gyimah
QED0 -
If he was smart he would have lent votes to other candidates in round 1 and will take some of them back in the next round.eek said:
He may well flat-line after all the value is in determining who ends up against him...Alistair said:What if Boris flat lines in the next round, only puts on 10 votes?
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Labour in the cities, SNP in Scotland, BXP in the Danelaw, and LibDems in the SW and Home Counties. Tories pushed back to their Athelney marshes which appear to be the Pennines and West Midlands.148grss said:
I so wish more places would use cartograms so I can see at a glance what seat distribution looks like.williamglenn said:FWIW, the Flavible projection of the YouGov poll gives:
BXP: 289
Lib Dem: 141
Lab: 117
SNP: 51
Con: 28
https://flavible.com/politics/map/polls?sid=20710 -
That's why I'm contempalting it.eek said:
He may well flat-line after all the value is in determining who ends up against him...Alistair said:What if Boris flat lines in the next round, only puts on 10 votes?
We've determined this betting market is filled with stupid punters who kept Leadsom's price ridiculously short. Would these self same punters hilariously over-react to Boris not steaming ahead and lengthen his price?0 -
Boris is about the only one who could pull off a reverse ferret of some kind. Revoking really isn't an option but I could see him leaving with a very slight variation of May's deal.kinabalu said:
Meaning a 4 in 5 chance that as I slice the turkey this year - and as always refuse both to wear a paper hat and eat any parsnips - Boris Johnson is our PM.TOPPING said:I will have a lot of thinking to do. I loathe him and have said I would resign my membership if he becomes leader. But...but...Jeremy Corbyn as PM? Unfathomable.
So what are the scenarios ? I am going to do a @kinabalu to refine my thinking while writing.
1) Calls GE wins off he goes into the sunset (sans moi but he'll live with it)
2) Calls GE loses gets booted out
3) Doesn't call GE but then, as per @Mysticrose's arithmetic, has the sword of Damocles hanging over his head for the next three years.
I am torn. all logic says that the probabilities should be:
1) 40%
2) 40%
3) 20%
But you know my view on the WA being the only option possible and BoZo doing something creative PR-wise with it in which case the odds switch to:
1) 20%
2) 20%
3) 60%
I'm glad I've cleared that up for everyone. Your welcome.
Oh.
Trouble is, I think I agree. So thanks a bunch. For nothing.
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TOPPING said:
That's crazy talk.
Parsnips are delicious. As long as they are very very nearly roasted to a crisp. Get a grip of yourself man*.
*assumption, here.
Edit: fine with the no hat.
Take your word for it on the parsnips. Actually, I probably would love them but it's a family tradition that I don't have them. Dates from when I was 10. You know how it is, you get stereotyped - locked in.
BTW, re the ghastly Johnson not doing media, I would like to demonstrate my balance and objectivity by saying that IMO it does not demonstrate cowardice or weakness on his part. He has this in the bag and therefore it makes no sense to take any risks that he does not have to. It's good and sound tactics, nothing more.0 -
Owen Jones's screeds on ChUK have been most entertaining. I quite like this bit from his latest:
When Umunna and his motley crew launched their burning skip of a political party, they relentlessly declared that “politics is broken”. Let me gently suggest that if this is indeed true, Umunna should cast his gaze at the nearest mirror (not something I imagine he is averse to doing anyway).
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/14/chuka-umunna-labour-liberal-democrat-hypocrisy2 -
Like May had the 2017 election in the bag?kinabalu said:TOPPING said:That's crazy talk.
Parsnips are delicious. As long as they are very very nearly roasted to a crisp. Get a grip of yourself man*.
*assumption, here.
Edit: fine with the no hat.
Take your word for it on the parsnips. Actually, I probably would love them but it's a family tradition that I don't have them. Dates from when I was 10. You know how it is, you get stereotyped - locked in.
BTW, re the ghastly Johnson not doing media, I would like to demonstrate my balance and objectivity by saying that IMO it does not demonstrate cowardice or weakness on his part. He has this in the bag and therefore it makes no sense to take any risks that he does not have to. It's good and sound tactics, nothing more. 0 -
Glastonbury all anti Semitic too?Scott_P said:BoZo is afraid to appear in front of a TV audience.
Corbyn did Glastonbury.
The General Election campaign is going to be mental...0 -
I was just about to post what @RobD typed word for word!!kinabalu said:TOPPING said:That's crazy talk.
Parsnips are delicious. As long as they are very very nearly roasted to a crisp. Get a grip of yourself man*.
*assumption, here.
Edit: fine with the no hat.
Take your word for it on the parsnips. Actually, I probably would love them but it's a family tradition that I don't have them. Dates from when I was 10. You know how it is, you get stereotyped - locked in.
BTW, re the ghastly Johnson not doing media, I would like to demonstrate my balance and objectivity by saying that IMO it does not demonstrate cowardice or weakness on his part. He has this in the bag and therefore it makes no sense to take any risks that he does not have to. It's good and sound tactics, nothing more.0 -
It seems to me that if we remain/revoke (which I think will in fact happen) then for the foreseeable future parties will continue to be identified by reference to attitude to the EU; but if we leave then eventually the split among the parties will have to coalesce around other issues. I don't think there is any way of telling what those will be, except that the old splits between people who are fond of making money and people who are fond of spending other people's, people who create jobs and people who think they have right to one is bound to remain.kinabalu said:
I ought to be switching to LibDem if you're right. Fact I'll go further - if you're right I WILL switch to LibDem.viewcode said:Labour is becoming the party of the anti-Semites and not-bothered about the EU
Con is becoming the party of the anti-Muslims and the Leavers
Lib is becoming the party of the not-bothered-about-religion and the Remainers
Brexit is becoming the party of the not-bothered-about-religion and the Leavers
How the hell we ended up with that is an interesting story, but not one I will have the time to deduce any time soon...
PS: For clarity in case it read a bit weird, my 'Uncle Tom' ref had nothing to do with Jewish matters - I'm talking about the working class man who makes a few bob and goes true blue Tory.
Identifying Tories and anti Muslims is a simplification. They have much in common, and the coalition of Labour and urban Islam has a lot of cracks in it.
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I disagree, i think it a useful phrase for both left and right to describe a very common behaviour that does not mean a view is insincere, but that there are clearly self satisfactory motives at play.DavidL said:
A fair point.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Nothing more tedious than the phrase "virtue signalling".DavidL said:The usual completely over the top nonsense about Johnson this morning. Is this a competition and if so what's the prize? If its just virtue signalling its getting a tad tedious.
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Mr. kinabalu, roast parsnips are fantastic (and you can do carrots at the same time).0
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Wrong, because getting the PMship is the least important part of it. Once in post he needs the political clout of a love child of JFK and Maggie Thatcher if he is to get anything useful done. To start out as the man who cautiously skulked his way into number 10 is to fail.kinabalu said:TOPPING said:That's crazy talk.
Parsnips are delicious. As long as they are very very nearly roasted to a crisp. Get a grip of yourself man*.
*assumption, here.
Edit: fine with the no hat.
Take your word for it on the parsnips. Actually, I probably would love them but it's a family tradition that I don't have them. Dates from when I was 10. You know how it is, you get stereotyped - locked in.
BTW, re the ghastly Johnson not doing media, I would like to demonstrate my balance and objectivity by saying that IMO it does not demonstrate cowardice or weakness on his part. He has this in the bag and therefore it makes no sense to take any risks that he does not have to. It's good and sound tactics, nothing more.0 -
The Glastonbury crowd is, I would guess, slightly more welcoming of aged leftists than a TV audience might be to Boris, not much courage is needed.Scott_P said:BoZo is afraid to appear in front of a TV audience.
Corbyn did Glastonbury.
The General Election campaign is going to be mental...0 -
To me, the Labour policy on Brexit is perfectly reasonable and perfectly clear. It is as follows -matt said:They certainly seem very effective at stringing people along, as your posts on the subject (they’re bound to..., the next announcement will..., they cannot but...) prove. I guess they are right in assuming their voter base will essentially do what they’re told. Baaa.
Oppose any 'Tory Brexit' in the hope of forcing a general election - since a GE is the only way to move from opposition into government.
If the GE is successfully forced, or is called by Johnson, offer a renegotiated 'softer' Brexit (CU plus SM alignment) with a subsequent confirmatory Referendum against Remain. Put that up against the Tory offering of 'proper' Hard Brexit. Hope to win off the back of Remainer sentiment.
It is not clear to me what more they could reasonably be expected to do whilst they remain in Opposition.
In particular, why make their GE commitment before there is a GE?0 -
September election still 10 on Betfair.williamglenn said:
That would be way too late and would mean we'd effectively have the longest general election campaign in history in which there'd be a risk the Tories would fade into irrelevance by the time of the vote.Philip_Thompson said:He will go to the country. 17th or 24th October.
Johnson's best bet would be an immediate snap election with a shock and awe short campaign. It would be a high stakes gamble but it stands a chance of working.
I’m slowly topping up at this price.0 -
@SeanT might disagree with youkinabalu said:
Has not been a better 20s lay for many a moon.AlastairMeeks said:The price for Rory Stewart is inexplicable on the evidence in front of us.
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Test-1
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Maybe the only way the Boris bandwagon can be stopped is not through scandal or gaffes but if one Mrs May (remember her?) were to endorse him, saying sweetly while she does so, that she knows he is at heart a pragmatist, is clever enough to have learnt from her mistake in tacking too far to the ERG and knows from his FO experience what is / is not realistically available from the EU. She can end by saying that he is far too much of a patriot to want to take the sorts of risks with peoples’ lives that a no Deal exit would entail.
And then wish him luck and all her support while smoothly moving onto all the lovely holidays she and Philip have planned.
Perhaps in an interview in this weekend’s Sundays .....1 -
He may be enjoying himself now, but he has clearly missed that his chum Jezza has managed to lose a shed load of remainers to the Liberals, and they might not be coming back for a very long time.Stark_Dawning said:Owen Jones's screeds on ChUK have been most entertaining. I quite like this bit from his latest:
When Umunna and his motley crew launched their burning skip of a political party, they relentlessly declared that “politics is broken”. Let me gently suggest that if this is indeed true, Umunna should cast his gaze at the nearest mirror (not something I imagine he is averse to doing anyway).
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/14/chuka-umunna-labour-liberal-democrat-hypocrisy0 -
Sadly, though, that would display a level of political nous so far absent from her career as PM.Cyclefree said:Maybe the only way the Boris bandwagon can be stopped is not through scandal or gaffes but if one Mrs May (remember her?) were to endorse him, saying sweetly while she does so, that she knows he is at heart a pragmatist, is clever enough to have learnt from her mistake in tacking too far to the ERG and knows from his FO experience what is / is not realistically available from the EU. She can end by saying that he is far too much of a patriot to want to take the sorts of risks with peoples’ lives that a no Deal exit would entail.
And then wish him luck and all her support while smoothly moving onto all the lovely holidays she and Philip have planned.
Perhaps in an interview in this weekend’s Sundays .....0 -
The country is roughly divided equally in three, a third want to leave asap, a third want to remain at all costs and a middle third who either want a pragmatic solution or do not care.kinabalu said:
To me, the Labour policy on Brexit is perfectly reasonable and perfectly clear. It is as follows -matt said:They certainly seem very effective at stringing people along, as your posts on the subject (they’re bound to..., the next announcement will..., they cannot but...) prove. I guess they are right in assuming their voter base will essentially do what they’re told. Baaa.
Oppose any 'Tory Brexit' in the hope of forcing a general election - since a GE is the only way to move from opposition into government.
If the GE is successfully forced, or is called by Johnson, offer a renegotiated 'softer' Brexit (CU plus SM alignment) with a subsequent confirmatory Referendum against Remain. Put that up against the Tory offering of 'proper' Hard Brexit. Hope to win off the back of Remainer sentiment.
It is not clear to me what more they could reasonably be expected to do whilst they remain in Opposition.
In particular, why make their GE commitment before there is a GE?
The Labour policy can only appeal to the half of the middle third who do not care. It is going to excite no-one, and is aggravating the other 5/6 of the electorate for differing reasons (being too remainy, too leavy, or being obstructive).0 -
The only circumstances in which I can see myself voting at all in the GE would be if Labour are offering a 2nd referendum with a remain option. ( I live in a Con-Lab Marginal)kinabalu said:
It would be utterly bonkers electorally for Labour to offer the Referendum but without Remain as an option. I cannot believe they would do that.RochdalePioneers said:Labour's problem is that it will be offering a referendum which according to the JC would be between his unicorn cake deal and no deal. Remain would not be on the ballot.
Which means that no remainer will switch back...
If they do, I completely agree with you - goodnight vienna.
Hence why I am certain they won't.0 -
I agree with you but I bet Johnson doesn’t. If the word on the street is right then getting the job is for him very much not the least important thing - it is the ONLY thing and has been since he was spanking his fag at Eton. Sorry at 'School'.Ishmael_Z said:Wrong, because getting the PMship is the least important part of it. Once in post he needs the political clout of a love child of JFK and Maggie Thatcher if he is to get anything useful done. To start out as the man who cautiously skulked his way into number 10 is to fail.
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I like it!Cyclefree said:Maybe the only way the Boris bandwagon can be stopped is not through scandal or gaffes but if one Mrs May (remember her?) were to endorse him, saying sweetly while she does so, that she knows he is at heart a pragmatist, is clever enough to have learnt from her mistake in tacking too far to the ERG and knows from his FO experience what is / is not realistically available from the EU. She can end by saying that he is far too much of a patriot to want to take the sorts of risks with peoples’ lives that a no Deal exit would entail.
And then wish him luck and all her support while smoothly moving onto all the lovely holidays she and Philip have planned.
Perhaps in an interview in this weekend’s Sundays .....0 -
Even if Corbyn were to tank, he would never blame him. Owen is always out the next day after another defeat for Corbyn claiming that it's the fault of everyone else for not listening to Corbyn's vision.rottenborough said:
He may be enjoying himself now, but he has clearly missed that his chum Jezza has managed to lose a shed load of remainers to the Liberals, and they might not be coming back for a very long time.Stark_Dawning said:Owen Jones's screeds on ChUK have been most entertaining. I quite like this bit from his latest:
When Umunna and his motley crew launched their burning skip of a political party, they relentlessly declared that “politics is broken”. Let me gently suggest that if this is indeed true, Umunna should cast his gaze at the nearest mirror (not something I imagine he is averse to doing anyway).
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/14/chuka-umunna-labour-liberal-democrat-hypocrisy0 -
Better wait for Raab to be out of the contest first, I would suggest.Richard_Nabavi said:
I like it!Cyclefree said:Maybe the only way the Boris bandwagon can be stopped is not through scandal or gaffes but if one Mrs May (remember her?) were to endorse him, saying sweetly while she does so, that she knows he is at heart a pragmatist, is clever enough to have learnt from her mistake in tacking too far to the ERG and knows from his FO experience what is / is not realistically available from the EU. She can end by saying that he is far too much of a patriot to want to take the sorts of risks with peoples’ lives that a no Deal exit would entail.
And then wish him luck and all her support while smoothly moving onto all the lovely holidays she and Philip have planned.
Perhaps in an interview in this weekend’s Sundays .....0 -
Anyone think Corbyn would risk another Glasto appearence? It might not go quite so well this time.....kle4 said:
The Glastonbury crowd is, I would guess, slightly more welcoming of aged leftists than a TV audience might be to Boris, not much courage is needed.Scott_P said:BoZo is afraid to appear in front of a TV audience.
Corbyn did Glastonbury.
The General Election campaign is going to be mental...0 -
Boris says he doesn't aim for or want a WTO Brexit.
Can he win back BXP voters who have become so infected with the virus that they all want a WTO Brexit and they want it now?0 -
Good point!tlg86 said:
Better wait for Raab to be out of the contest first, I would suggest.Richard_Nabavi said:
I like it!Cyclefree said:Maybe the only way the Boris bandwagon can be stopped is not through scandal or gaffes but if one Mrs May (remember her?) were to endorse him, saying sweetly while she does so, that she knows he is at heart a pragmatist, is clever enough to have learnt from her mistake in tacking too far to the ERG and knows from his FO experience what is / is not realistically available from the EU. She can end by saying that he is far too much of a patriot to want to take the sorts of risks with peoples’ lives that a no Deal exit would entail.
And then wish him luck and all her support while smoothly moving onto all the lovely holidays she and Philip have planned.
Perhaps in an interview in this weekend’s Sundays .....0 -
The problem is it might not be enough to stop him winning the leadership, but would sink him in the GE.Richard_Nabavi said:
I like it!Cyclefree said:Maybe the only way the Boris bandwagon can be stopped is not through scandal or gaffes but if one Mrs May (remember her?) were to endorse him, saying sweetly while she does so, that she knows he is at heart a pragmatist, is clever enough to have learnt from her mistake in tacking too far to the ERG and knows from his FO experience what is / is not realistically available from the EU. She can end by saying that he is far too much of a patriot to want to take the sorts of risks with peoples’ lives that a no Deal exit would entail.
And then wish him luck and all her support while smoothly moving onto all the lovely holidays she and Philip have planned.
Perhaps in an interview in this weekend’s Sundays .....0 -
Hope and wishful thinking, then. Perhaps you’ll be proved correct but there’s precious little evidence to date.kinabalu said:
To me, the Labour policy on Brexit is perfectly reasonable and perfectly clear. It is as follows -matt said:They certainly seem very effective at stringing people along, as your posts on the subject (they’re bound to..., the next announcement will..., they cannot but...) prove. I guess they are right in assuming their voter base will essentially do what they’re told. Baaa.
Oppose any 'Tory Brexit' in the hope of forcing a general election - since a GE is the only way to move from opposition into government.
If the GE is successfully forced, or is called by Johnson, offer a renegotiated 'softer' Brexit (CU plus SM alignment) with a subsequent confirmatory Referendum against Remain. Put that up against the Tory offering of 'proper' Hard Brexit. Hope to win off the back of Remainer sentiment.
It is not clear to me what more they could reasonably be expected to do whilst they remain in Opposition.
In particular, why make their GE commitment before there is a GE?0 -
I suspect most Brexit Party voters just want a Brexit that doesn't leave us still largely in. If only the EU weren't so fucking blinkered, there'd be a deal to be done this mass of voters would sign off on... But in the absence of that, yes, WTO holds no fear for them.rottenborough said:Boris says he doesn't aim for or want a WTO Brexit.
Can he win back BXP voters who have become so infected with the virus that they all want a WTO Brexit and they want it now?0 -
You’re a well-connected Tory member. Pass it on!Richard_Nabavi said:
I like it!Cyclefree said:Maybe the only way the Boris bandwagon can be stopped is not through scandal or gaffes but if one Mrs May (remember her?) were to endorse him, saying sweetly while she does so, that she knows he is at heart a pragmatist, is clever enough to have learnt from her mistake in tacking too far to the ERG and knows from his FO experience what is / is not realistically available from the EU. She can end by saying that he is far too much of a patriot to want to take the sorts of risks with peoples’ lives that a no Deal exit would entail.
And then wish him luck and all her support while smoothly moving onto all the lovely holidays she and Philip have planned.
Perhaps in an interview in this weekend’s Sundays .....1 -
Do you on the whole consider The Wealthy and The Wealth Creators to be the same group of people?algarkirk said:It seems to me that if we remain/revoke (which I think will in fact happen) then for the foreseeable future parties will continue to be identified by reference to attitude to the EU; but if we leave then eventually the split among the parties will have to coalesce around other issues. I don't think there is any way of telling what those will be, except that the old splits between people who are fond of making money and people who are fond of spending other people's, people who create jobs and people who think they have right to one is bound to remain.
Identifying Tories and anti Muslims is a simplification. They have much in common, and the coalition of Labour and urban Islam has a lot of cracks in it.0 -
It will make up for not being made school captain which he apparently was his by right.kinabalu said:
I agree with you but I bet Johnson doesn’t. If the word on the street is right then getting the job is for him very much not the least important thing - it is the ONLY thing and has been since he was spanking his fag at Eton. Sorry at 'School'.Ishmael_Z said:Wrong, because getting the PMship is the least important part of it. Once in post he needs the political clout of a love child of JFK and Maggie Thatcher if he is to get anything useful done. To start out as the man who cautiously skulked his way into number 10 is to fail.
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But don't most Corbyn supporters WANT the Referendum with Remain option?RochdalePioneers said:"Utterly Bonkers" - you've met Corbyn supporters then...
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Strafford MP, Jeremy Lefroy, announced he will retire at next GE.
He was first elected in 2010. I must confess I haven't heard of him before his retirement's announcement.0 -
That’s because they don’t know what it is. I’ve challenged several people, when claiming we leave on wto terms, exactly what they mean. They have no idea they think it means free trade with th world.MarqueeMark said:
I suspect most Brexit Party voters just want a Brexit that doesn't leave us still largely in. If only the EU weren't so fucking blinkered, there'd be a deal to be done this mass of voters would sign off on... But in the absence of that, yes, WTO holds no fear for them.rottenborough said:Boris says he doesn't aim for or want a WTO Brexit.
Can he win back BXP voters who have become so infected with the virus that they all want a WTO Brexit and they want it now?
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Stafford.AndreaParma_82 said:Strafford MP, Jeremy Lefroy, announced he will retire at next GE.
He was first elected in 2010. I must confess I haven't heard of him before his retirement's announcement.0 -
Let's hope they never find out what it really means. Cos they aint gonna be happy...nichomar said:
That’s because they don’t know what it is. I’ve challenged several people, when claiming we leave on wto terms, exactly what they mean. They have no idea they think it means free trade with th world.MarqueeMark said:
I suspect most Brexit Party voters just want a Brexit that doesn't leave us still largely in. If only the EU weren't so fucking blinkered, there'd be a deal to be done this mass of voters would sign off on... But in the absence of that, yes, WTO holds no fear for them.rottenborough said:Boris says he doesn't aim for or want a WTO Brexit.
Can he win back BXP voters who have become so infected with the virus that they all want a WTO Brexit and they want it now?0 -
OK you have talked me into it.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. kinabalu, roast parsnips are fantastic (and you can do carrots at the same time).
And in the vanishingly unlikely event of anybody having the remotest interest in knowing this, I can say in all sincerity that carrots are my favourite vegetable. I even like them raw.0 -
Where would someone whose view is f... business sit?algarkirk said:
It seems to me that if we remain/revoke (which I think will in fact happen) then for the foreseeable future parties will continue to be identified by reference to attitude to the EU; but if we leave then eventually the split among the parties will have to coalesce around other issues. I don't think there is any way of telling what those will be, except that the old splits between people who are fond of making money and people who are fond of spending other people's, people who create jobs and people who think they have right to one is bound to remain.kinabalu said:
I ought to be switching to LibDem if you're right. Fact I'll go further - if you're right I WILL switch to LibDem.viewcode said:Labour is becoming the party of the anti-Semites and not-bothered about the EU
Con is becoming the party of the anti-Muslims and the Leavers
Lib is becoming the party of the not-bothered-about-religion and the Remainers
Brexit is becoming the party of the not-bothered-about-religion and the Leavers
How the hell we ended up with that is an interesting story, but not one I will have the time to deduce any time soon...
PS: For clarity in case it read a bit weird, my 'Uncle Tom' ref had nothing to do with Jewish matters - I'm talking about the working class man who makes a few bob and goes true blue Tory.
Identifying Tories and anti Muslims is a simplification. They have much in common, and the coalition of Labour and urban Islam has a lot of cracks in it.
Could we please have one party which is pro business, investment and good jobs but anti rentiers, asset strippers and unearnt inherited wealth.0 -
Shall we go back and review PB the days after May called the 2017 election?kinabalu said:
Well that is a stonking point obviously.RobD said:Like May had the 2017 election in the bag?
But Boris’s lead with Tory MPs really does look impregnable barring 'accidents'.
And then he will have to do the hustings for the grassroots.
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Great idea CyclefreeCyclefree said:Maybe the only way the Boris bandwagon can be stopped is not through scandal or gaffes but if one Mrs May (remember her?) were to endorse him, saying sweetly while she does so, that she knows he is at heart a pragmatist, is clever enough to have learnt from her mistake in tacking too far to the ERG and knows from his FO experience what is / is not realistically available from the EU. She can end by saying that he is far too much of a patriot to want to take the sorts of risks with peoples’ lives that a no Deal exit would entail.
And then wish him luck and all her support while smoothly moving onto all the lovely holidays she and Philip have planned.
Perhaps in an interview in this weekend’s Sundays .....0 -
Well it is for those countries exporting o us - not so much for our exportsnichomar said:
That’s because they don’t know what it is. I’ve challenged several people, when claiming we leave on wto terms, exactly what they mean. They have no idea they think it means free trade with th world.MarqueeMark said:
I suspect most Brexit Party voters just want a Brexit that doesn't leave us still largely in. If only the EU weren't so fucking blinkered, there'd be a deal to be done this mass of voters would sign off on... But in the absence of that, yes, WTO holds no fear for them.rottenborough said:Boris says he doesn't aim for or want a WTO Brexit.
Can he win back BXP voters who have become so infected with the virus that they all want a WTO Brexit and they want it now?0 -
A remainer in a Brexit voting seat. Perhaps he can see the writing on the wall for the hardcore remainers in the Tory party.AndreaParma_82 said:Strafford MP, Jeremy Lefroy, announced he will retire at next GE.
He was first elected in 2010. I must confess I haven't heard of him before his retirement's announcement.1 -
Perhaps he will now enjoy having nothing to lose?GarethoftheVale2 said:
A remainer in a Brexit voting seat. Perhaps he can see the writing on the wall for the hardcore remainers in the Tory party.AndreaParma_82 said:Strafford MP, Jeremy Lefroy, announced he will retire at next GE.
He was first elected in 2010. I must confess I haven't heard of him before his retirement's announcement.0 -
Not sure it's wise to regard anything Boris is in contact with as "impregnable", particularly if there's an "accident".kinabalu said:
Well that is a stonking point obviously.RobD said:Like May had the 2017 election in the bag?
But Boris’s lead with Tory MPs really does look impregnable barring 'accidents'.
And then he will have to do the hustings for the grassroots.0 -
But he voted for the WA, if the headbangers in the ERG had done the same we would now be out.GarethoftheVale2 said:
A remainer in a Brexit voting seat. Perhaps he can see the writing on the wall for the hardcore remainers in the Tory party.AndreaParma_82 said:Strafford MP, Jeremy Lefroy, announced he will retire at next GE.
He was first elected in 2010. I must confess I haven't heard of him before his retirement's announcement.0 -
The latest YouGov poll was taken on 9/10 June i.e. last Sunday/Monday when the papers were full of Boris being the favourite for next PM.
In spite of this, the Tories got 17% in the poll. 17%. Where is the Boris effect?
Labour only got 19%. The two main parties got 26% and 22%.
On the EMA, the Tories are on 186 seats, Lab on 284, LD on 37 and Brex on 63.0 -
For the millionth time, no we wouldn't. Not without the DUP. And what evidence do you have that THEY would have voted for the WA? Cuz I've seen squat....notme2 said:
But he voted for the WA, if the headbangers in the ERG had done the same we would now be out.GarethoftheVale2 said:
A remainer in a Brexit voting seat. Perhaps he can see the writing on the wall for the hardcore remainers in the Tory party.AndreaParma_82 said:Strafford MP, Jeremy Lefroy, announced he will retire at next GE.
He was first elected in 2010. I must confess I haven't heard of him before his retirement's announcement.0 -
With his luck it would probably all go to his ears.GIN1138 said:
Before the next leadership contest Rory needs to gorge on junk food and fatten himself up a bit!williamglenn said:
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What evidence do you have that no one in Labour would have voted for it, had there been a solid Tory vote in favour of ?MarqueeMark said:
For the millionth time, no we wouldn't. Not without the DUP. And what evidence do you have that THEY would have voted for the WA? Cuz I've seen squat....notme2 said:
But he voted for the WA, if the headbangers in the ERG had done the same we would now be out.GarethoftheVale2 said:
A remainer in a Brexit voting seat. Perhaps he can see the writing on the wall for the hardcore remainers in the Tory party.AndreaParma_82 said:Strafford MP, Jeremy Lefroy, announced he will retire at next GE.
He was first elected in 2010. I must confess I haven't heard of him before his retirement's announcement.0 -
How would Labour campaign if it’s their deal v Remain . And waiting very close to a GE to come out for another vote looks like desperation . And how many pro EU Labour voters would trust Corbyn to deliver .kinabalu said:
To me, the Labour policy on Brexit is perfectly reasonable and perfectly clear. It is as follows -matt said:They certainly seem very effective at stringing people along, as your posts on the subject (they’re bound to..., the next announcement will..., they cannot but...) prove. I guess they are right in assuming their voter base will essentially do what they’re told. Baaa.
Oppose any 'Tory Brexit' in the hope of forcing a general election - since a GE is the only way to move from opposition into government.
If the GE is successfully forced, or is called by Johnson, offer a renegotiated 'softer' Brexit (CU plus SM alignment) with a subsequent confirmatory Referendum against Remain. Put that up against the Tory offering of 'proper' Hard Brexit. Hope to win off the back of Remainer sentiment.
It is not clear to me what more they could reasonably be expected to do whilst they remain in Opposition.
In particular, why make their GE commitment before there is a GE?0 -
OK - but my main point is that it makes sense for Labour to announce that their policy in government would be Referendum with Remain option ONLY if and when there is a general election that could put them into government.noneoftheabove said:The country is roughly divided equally in three, a third want to leave asap, a third want to remain at all costs and a middle third who either want a pragmatic solution or do not care.
The Labour policy can only appeal to the half of the middle third who do not care. It is going to excite no-one, and is aggravating the other 5/6 of the electorate for differing reasons (being too remainy, too leavy, or being obstructive).
Why make the big announcement now? What is the advantage to that? How would it make a Labour government more likely?
Same question to your fellow sceptic 'Matt'.0 -
There aren't that many ERGers.notme2 said:
But he voted for the WA, if the headbangers in the ERG had done the same we would now be out.GarethoftheVale2 said:
A remainer in a Brexit voting seat. Perhaps he can see the writing on the wall for the hardcore remainers in the Tory party.AndreaParma_82 said:Strafford MP, Jeremy Lefroy, announced he will retire at next GE.
He was first elected in 2010. I must confess I haven't heard of him before his retirement's announcement.0 -
Assuming BJ wins , who do PBers think will get the chancellor slot?0
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The impact of their support would have seen it through.RobD said:
There aren't that many ERGers.notme2 said:
But he voted for the WA, if the headbangers in the ERG had done the same we would now be out.GarethoftheVale2 said:
A remainer in a Brexit voting seat. Perhaps he can see the writing on the wall for the hardcore remainers in the Tory party.AndreaParma_82 said:Strafford MP, Jeremy Lefroy, announced he will retire at next GE.
He was first elected in 2010. I must confess I haven't heard of him before his retirement's announcement.0 -
Yes, we would.MarqueeMark said:
For the millionth time, no we wouldn't. Not without the DUP. And what evidence do you have that THEY would have voted for the WA? Cuz I've seen squat....notme2 said:
But he voted for the WA, if the headbangers in the ERG had done the same we would now be out.GarethoftheVale2 said:
A remainer in a Brexit voting seat. Perhaps he can see the writing on the wall for the hardcore remainers in the Tory party.AndreaParma_82 said:Strafford MP, Jeremy Lefroy, announced he will retire at next GE.
He was first elected in 2010. I must confess I haven't heard of him before his retirement's announcement.0 -
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Y0kel is extremely well connected in that space, and he said that if the WA had been going to pass they would have voted for it, but they weren't going to waste their votes on a doomed measure.MarqueeMark said:
For the millionth time, no we wouldn't. Not without the DUP. And what evidence do you have that THEY would have voted for the WA? Cuz I've seen squat....notme2 said:
But he voted for the WA, if the headbangers in the ERG had done the same we would now be out.GarethoftheVale2 said:
A remainer in a Brexit voting seat. Perhaps he can see the writing on the wall for the hardcore remainers in the Tory party.AndreaParma_82 said:Strafford MP, Jeremy Lefroy, announced he will retire at next GE.
He was first elected in 2010. I must confess I haven't heard of him before his retirement's announcement.0 -
Drove past this Butchers in Hornchurch earlier and thought of you!rcs1000 said:
Raab, Gove or Hunt, I suspect.kjohnw said:Assuming BJ wins , who do PBers think will get the chancellor slot?
He'll need to reward those who got closest to him. I suspect Rory Stewart will be out on his ear, or off to Northern Ireland, mind.
Specialists in ‘Cured’ meat 😊
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I seem to recall if all tories had voted for it last time it would have gone through without DUP. Of course that includes some non ERG hold outs.RobD said:
There aren't that many ERGers.notme2 said:
But he voted for the WA, if the headbangers in the ERG had done the same we would now be out.GarethoftheVale2 said:
A remainer in a Brexit voting seat. Perhaps he can see the writing on the wall for the hardcore remainers in the Tory party.AndreaParma_82 said:Strafford MP, Jeremy Lefroy, announced he will retire at next GE.
He was first elected in 2010. I must confess I haven't heard of him before his retirement's announcement.0 -
Perhaps take a neutral position. Allow Labour MPs to campaign on either side.nico67 said:How would Labour campaign if it’s their deal v Remain . And waiting very close to a GE to come out for another vote looks like desperation . And how many pro EU Labour voters would trust Corbyn to deliver .
I don't think it would look desperate to unveil the commitment at GE time - I think it would have great impact and also not appear too cynical because they would clearly have been moving in that direction for a long time.0 -
In which Fraser Nelson levels-up on Brexit derangement:
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/11395429362936954880 -
Which is even worse than being against it. If that's true what a bunch of arses they are . Vote for it or dont but after several tries do so on merit, not posturing.rcs1000 said:
Y0kel is extremely well connected in that space, and he said that if the WA had been going to pass they would have voted for it, but they weren't going to waste their votes on a doomed measure.MarqueeMark said:
For the millionth time, no we wouldn't. Not without the DUP. And what evidence do you have that THEY would have voted for the WA? Cuz I've seen squat....notme2 said:
But he voted for the WA, if the headbangers in the ERG had done the same we would now be out.GarethoftheVale2 said:
A remainer in a Brexit voting seat. Perhaps he can see the writing on the wall for the hardcore remainers in the Tory party.AndreaParma_82 said:Strafford MP, Jeremy Lefroy, announced he will retire at next GE.
He was first elected in 2010. I must confess I haven't heard of him before his retirement's announcement.0 -
Very odd party the DUP. Say against WA due to strong principles, but would have voted for it if it was likely to pass. Huh?rcs1000 said:
Y0kel is extremely well connected in that space, and he said that if the WA had been going to pass they would have voted for it, but they weren't going to waste their votes on a doomed measure.MarqueeMark said:
For the millionth time, no we wouldn't. Not without the DUP. And what evidence do you have that THEY would have voted for the WA? Cuz I've seen squat....notme2 said:
But he voted for the WA, if the headbangers in the ERG had done the same we would now be out.GarethoftheVale2 said:
A remainer in a Brexit voting seat. Perhaps he can see the writing on the wall for the hardcore remainers in the Tory party.AndreaParma_82 said:Strafford MP, Jeremy Lefroy, announced he will retire at next GE.
He was first elected in 2010. I must confess I haven't heard of him before his retirement's announcement.
Would Ruthie vote for independence if she thought that Yes would win?0 -
While I am sceptical of how populist is often used as a term, that's an odd view he has taken that because it's a single issue simplistic message party it cannot be so.AlastairMeeks said:In which Fraser Nelson levels-up on Brexit derangement:
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1139542936293695488
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He's assured of a place in the fnal two now. Why does he need to keep saying this now, before he even knows who else will be on the members' ballot paper? It makes no sense.williamglenn said:0 -
Oh, it does. The more he knows it is impossible to no deal without a GE being forced, the more he needs to cement in peoples minds that his intention was to leave by date x, never mind even with no deal more time might be needed to legislate.Chris said:
He's assured of a place in the fnal two now. Why does he need to keep saying this now, before he even knows who else will be on the members' ballot paper? It makes no sense.williamglenn said:0 -
The proportions of the three groups are more skewed to the non-compromisers, and within that, to the Remainers.noneoftheabove said:The country is roughly divided equally in three, a third want to leave asap, a third want to remain at all costs and a middle third who either want a pragmatic solution or do not care.
The Labour policy can only appeal to the half of the middle third who do not care. It is going to excite no-one, and is aggravating the other 5/6 of the electorate for differing reasons (being too remainy, too leavy, or being obstructive).
https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2019/06/14/a-country-of-purists-the-polling-which-lays-bare-the-death0
