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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest PB / Polling Matters podcast asks two big questions about Johnson: Is his victory now inevitable and is he a vote winner?
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Yes, his victory is inevitable as long as the minders succeed in protecting him from himself,
No, he is not a vote winner, because the finest minders in the world cannot erect an impregnable barrier around him.
A bit like Theresa May in 2017. Hardly an unqualified success. Common factor: Lynton Crosby.
Such as the treatment of don't knows, which meant name recognition was a decisive factor; that Boris's advantages with Leave voters hide weaknesses with Remain voters; that measures like google trends favour Rory.
It would have to be a pretty rare person who is interested in politics, their opinions lie in the middle or staddle the political spectrum and then be against the exixstence of parties to the left or the right. The LDs even have "democrats" in their name.
I haven't seen much evidence that the LDs are Liberal either.
Came across two anecdotes about politicians over the last couple of days; one dead, one very much alive. The first was of Harold Wilson, when faced with a young trainee journalist, who was very nervous. Told that she was, and why, he told her to ask whatever she wanted, but could he hear... not see.... what she'd written. She did, he made only a very few minor changes, and she went on to be confirmed in her fist job and go on to have a satisfying career.
The other tale was of Boris who apparently sometimes goes into his local supermarket (yes, I was surprised, too, but apparently it's 'man of the people' stuff) and throws his weight about. Makes himself very unpopular with management and staff.
Not sure if Osborne was trolling or not but I'm sure something for BoJo's campaign manager to ponder.
Boris's ideology is Boris Johnson. He will do whatever he thinks is best for Boris Johnson and his friends, not the country. Hence the Garden Bridge debacle.
Both Corbyn and Boris are dangerous to the country in different ways. Boris does have the advantage of being outwardly likeable to many, though.
Boris cares about Boris.
They are not the same.
If you're not in certain groups, he sees you as the enemy. In some ways that's more dangerous than an egomaniac like Johnson.
That would explain the manifesto full of bungs to his supporters and full of claims about how he would tax everyone and everything else into oblivion, even though none of his figures stood up to anything remotely resembling scrutiny. It would also explain the frankly weird appointments he has made in the shadow cabinet and the private office, and the claimed 'not total' pacifist who supports terrorism.
Of course, from that point of view he is a very typical socialist, because after all they care about abstract ideas and their own wealth and comfort, not people, but I don't think of him as fundamentally different from Johnson.
They are also not British versions of Trump.
Jeremy is also not anti-semitic. Boris is also not a racist.
Unfortunately, Brexit and Corby-mania has driven Southam completely mad.
For example
Corbyn has been banging on about the issues he cares about, fashionable or not for 40 years. He hasn’t changed his mind once in that time. When he ceases to be Labour leader he will carry on.
Meanwhile Boris believes in whatever will help Boris at that moment.
Even allowing for an element of hatchet jobbing, this is a pretty damning list:
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/06/boris-johnson-s-racist-insults-dog-whistles-and-slurs
As for Corbyn, he thinks he is not an anti-Semite. That is not altogether the same thing.
As for the rest, has it occured to you that while distinctly niche interests, those campaigns were popular with Labour voters in first Haringey and then Islington - the people he needed to support him? When he started running the party he just changed his policies to fit with the new electorate.
He's a Trump/Johnson/Chavez style populist.
I don't want to end up defending Boris (someone I rather dislike), but much of that list is just flimsy.
There is also a danger if terms like "racism" or "antisemitism" are weakened to meaninglessness, in my opinion.
But they're not the same, exactly.
Johnson is just over entitled English Public School privilege encapsulated in one person. A classic example of the belief that an amateur winging it without proper preparation and not listening to advice is a suitable way to run a country.
We do not need evidence from supermarket anecdotes that he is like this,there is plenty in the public domain. Indeed, like many other arrogant toddlers he doesn't see for to hide it, such is his sense of entitlement.
Gulf of Oman tanker attacks: US says video shows Iran removing mine https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-48633016
If this stands up, it seems likely there will be war between the US and Iran before the end of July.
It will be very nasty.
And on that cheerful note, have a good morning.
"Let me show you I know Kipling off by heart. You don't know it do you. Jolly good stuff."
I'd describe that attitude as insensitive, childish, & egocentric.
I think one of the big divides in politics is between those who believe in the Just World Hypothesis and those who don't. Johnson gives the impression of fully believing, for example, that those who are rich are rich because they deserve it and those who are poor are poor because they deserve it. Hence his one policy so far of a tax cut for the rich. This is another difference with Corbyn.
That’s crazy.
Following extensive twitcher reports yesterday of a rare sighting of the Greater (Not Often) Spotted Boris in the Westminster area there is growing speculation that this over large member of the corvid family has once again gone to ground.
Watchers will be aware that this vast scavenger will look to feast on the carcasses of recently deceased fellow members of the crow family (Conservative Ravens of Westminster). Other distinguishing features of this particular male include :
1. Dark blue plumage with highly exposed white tail feathers and blond tufts
2. Over sized male breasts
3. Stuttering and highly variable bird calls
4. Very public promiscuous reproductive behaviour with multiple mates
5. Highly attractive to similar lower order magpies and jackdaws
6. A massive bill often noted in preening and vanity exercises
7. Nests close to bunkers and smaller island airports
8. Related to one sub species of the North American White House Popin-Jay
9. A frantic but very private leadership and dominance dance normally occurs every two years.
I think it unlikely that Johnson had committed enough Kipling to memory at school to be able to recite it, decades later. I think that he re-read it on the way there in preparation, in preference to his briefing papers on the country. Fortunately the British Diplomat cut him short before he insulted the Buddha at Yangon 's holiest site.
“He’s a compulsive liar;”
"He had two articles written, one Leave, one Remain;”
“A cheater;”
“Round the bend;”
“I don’t trust him;”
“He’s great at telling people what they want to hear, Boris, so he’ll just go wherever. That’s a bit of a danger;”
“I don’t think he’s normal at all, I think he’s very peculiar;”
“A devious individual and he’s doing everything to attract attention to himself;”
“He’s incredibly personable but he doesn’t care about genuine people, I don’t think.”
Other than that, is there anyone willing to speak up for him to say that he is suitable to the role of Prime Minister?
Now we've got a genuine choice and people are up in arms! You can have proper socialism. You can have a right wing government. Hell you can even have a party that accepts capitalism but wants it to be a bit fairer (LDs... and don't tell me it's a wasted vote, they were in power 4 years ago). So is it really that bad? Or is the rhetoric more divisive because people now have a real choice?
Britain Elects
@britainelects
Stapleford South East (Broxtowe) result:
LDEM: 44.3% (+19.8)
CON: 30.1% (-0.3)
LAB: 25.5% (-2.9)
No Stapleford Alliance (-16.6) as prev.
Liberal Democrat GAIN (X2) from Conservative.
23:31 - 13 Jun 2019
Boris is all of the criticisms and accusations that get thrown at him. But so what if thats what people want. This was my point about the Trump visit - I may find him reprehensible but he was elected President so its not for me to say Americans are wrong if thats what they want.
Right now the Tory party has (largely) forgotten what "Conservative" means. If they want Johnson then great - he's fit to lead the party. If Johnson then wins an election he's fit to lead the country.
Thats what democracy is.
Corbyn is not fit to lead Labour. With almost any other leader they would be miles ahead.
Trump is not fit to lead America. He's doing it, but that doesn't make him fit.
We've had instances before of supporters manipulating the betting markets in the hope of creating an illusion of support. One of the earliest and most famous of these involved Clement Freud during a Liberal Party Leadership contest. More spectacularly, the Romney team primed Intrade during his contest with Obama, allowing many on here to arb happily with the prices on Betfair.
The Leadsome case is a bit odd though. She never had the faintest chance, and it would have been an expensive way to create support. Few people outside this niche Site would have noticed the betting anomoly and it's hard to believe more than a tiny handful of people would have been misled or inflenced by her absurd price.
Somebody must have a lot more money than sense, or there are more crap punters out there than we thought.
“It takes two to tango.
If the EU refuses to give us a decent deal then what are we supposed to do?
If the EU says you can Brexit and we can give you a trade deal but you must sign up that you will follow our laws in full, you won't get a say in them and there is no way out of this agreement then are we just supposed to sign that?
If they said you can exit but instead of paying £9bn per annum we now want you to pay £18bn are we just supposed to sign that?”
Welcome to the world of power politics where the stronger party imposes its will on the weaker party if it has something which the latter wants. What you describe are known as trade offs. They were pointed out to the Brexiteers both before and after the referendum result. They chose to sack those who did the pointing out and have had a prolonged tantrum ever since at the fact that Britain does not get its way. They have resorted instead to living in a fantasy world and, judging by what the likely candidates for leadership are saying, are still in that fantasy world.
As a result at some point soon the brutal realities of power politics will be felt by this country.
We could do without a FTA with the EU but this will likely have serious economic consequences for the country. Is that what people wanted? Or was it for a deal which could be signed in an afternoon?
It’s too much to expect, I suppose, for a party seemingly intent on electing a habitual liar as leader to be honest with the voters.
Boris is not a monster. He has many faults but he is also clever, witty, a reasonable delegator and someone not frightened of ideas. He is colour in a world of black and white. That has drawbacks sometimes but it is also interesting in a way that most politicians aren't. There are several others in this leadership race that I would prefer but this site is losing its sense of perspective.
That’s why his mayoralty was a success.
The Americans got Trump, but at least he got in through a nationwide election.
The Tories really haven't thought about the potential backlash if things do indeed to pear shaped.