Still can't see Con & Lab not being top two at next general election - at present...
Yep, most likely. Boris promising (if necessary) no-deal Brexit on 31 Oct persumably hoovers up the Brexit Party vote (while losing most of the remaining moderate Tory voters, but makes Con > BP). Lab v LD could be a lot more interesting, but Lab probably benefit from tactical anti-Boris votes in the many constituencies where, on paper at least, they're the only realistic alternative. I don't think LD can look plausible in enough places by the next GE.
Just a bit of fun, but TBP win 321 seats on those numbers, according to Baxter.
How is Jezza not facing a challenge this summer on these numbers? He is LOTO years into a totally broken, failing government.
Lab members are all mad frankly.
As we have said before, their activists are largely a perfect mirror for their nutty Tory counterparts. They have more in common with each other than they do with normal people.
Anyone know where this assumption that if someone does well in the leadership election that somehow guarantees them a place in the ensuing cabinet? I mean, if Boris ( or whoever ) doesn’t ask Hancock to be the teaboy, what the hell can Hancock do about it, other than fester on the backbenches?
Interesting that remain has considerably more purists than leave (not necessarily a good thing even from my perspective). No wonder leave advocates are not in favour of retesting the will-o-the-people! Their belief in democracy only goes so far!!
Given a forced choice between Revoke and No Deal, Dealers mostly break for No Deal.
Anyone know where this assumption that if someone does well in the leadership election that somehow guarantees them a place in the ensuing cabinet? I mean, if Boris ( or whoever ) doesn’t ask Hancock to be the teaboy, what the hell can Hancock do about it, other than fester on the backbenches?
Nothing.
But to actually get to run you must have demonstrated to colleagues some ability. So makes sense to use that knowledge. There is also the need to have a balanced Cabinet that represents the party (in normal times anyway).
If he is to go he should go sooner. September, August if possible. Allow to campaign to say will get a renegotiation and pass deal or no deal. 24 October is too late, means guaranteed no deal.
I am expecting (and his supporters are backing this up) that once elected he will speak to Merkel and Macron and Barnier. Thats his August task - understand in clear unambiguous language that there is no further haggling on the withdrawal agreement. He doesn't need an election to provide him a mandate to do that.
When its clear there is nothing left to do, thats when to deliver as promised on Halloween its no deal. Whilst no deal is the legal default, parliament would likely vote to block it / send a deputation to Brussels pleading for more time etc. So Parliament returns on 5th September, Boris calls a motion for an early election and off we go.
Remember - it doesn't matter that it takes time to actually legislate for the things we'd need to have in place for no deal. That is all project fear fake news. Herr Hitler didn't give us notice to put things in place, he just invaded Poland. Bulldog spirit and all that.
On these numbers, how many seats do BXP prevent Cons / Lab from winning, but don't win themselves? I imagine this will lead to many Peterboroughs: BXP doesn't win but the winner isn't really apparent before hand? I think these numbers under FPTP equal Lab as the largest party, as it's the Tories losing the largest chunks to BXP (although Lab lose more to LDs). So a Lab led gov that needs LD / G / SNP / PC support would obvs go a 2nd ref route, and then if Leave win again a Lab soft brexit, and if remain win all hell breaks loose?
On these numbers, how many seats do BXP prevent Cons / Lab from winning, but don't win themselves? I imagine this will lead to many Peterboroughs: BXP doesn't win but the winner isn't really apparent before hand? I think these numbers under FPTP equal Lab as the largest party, as it's the Tories losing the largest chunks to BXP (although Lab lose more to LDs). So a Lab led gov that needs LD / G / SNP / PC support would obvs go a 2nd ref route, and then if Leave win again a Lab soft brexit, and if remain win all hell breaks loose?
I would read almost nothing into the numbers. This kind of result would be very wild.
Probably will be an election soon after Johnson becomes PM and Johnson and Farage will probably do a deal, probably ensuring tory majority. Tragedy that we have such a useless leader of the opposition at this time.
Anyone know where this assumption that if someone does well in the leadership election that somehow guarantees them a place in the ensuing cabinet? I mean, if Boris ( or whoever ) doesn’t ask Hancock to be the teaboy, what the hell can Hancock do about it, other than fester on the backbenches?
It doesn't guarantee them a place, but does help.
Firstly, it looks spiteful and not Prime Ministerial to demote your defeated rivals.
Secondly, people can be REALLY bitter and vengeful - look at May's treatment of Osborne and the consequences for her (he wasn't a candidate for PM, of course, but she did deliberately humiliate him).
Thirdly, standing and doing reasonably well indicates you'll not be festering alone on the backbenches. 20 people obviously thought Hancock should be PM, so that's a respectable sized gang he'd potentially be have a lot of sway with if he wanted to cause you trouble.
Finally, all this matters a hell of a lot more when you've not got a majority and when every vote counts if you're to do any sort of Brexit deal.
On these numbers, how many seats do BXP prevent Cons / Lab from winning, but don't win themselves? I imagine this will lead to many Peterboroughs: BXP doesn't win but the winner isn't really apparent before hand? I think these numbers under FPTP equal Lab as the largest party, as it's the Tories losing the largest chunks to BXP (although Lab lose more to LDs). So a Lab led gov that needs LD / G / SNP / PC support would obvs go a 2nd ref route, and then if Leave win again a Lab soft brexit, and if remain win all hell breaks loose?
I would read almost nothing into the numbers. This kind of result would be very wild.
Yes, we'd have the kind of odd results that were generated in the 1920's.
Labour is burning the candle at both ends. Will lose many seats to LD and Greens and possibly even Brexit in the crossfire. Plus will lose some seats to Brexit up North but not too many I think as Leave vote will also be split.
And still we hear the same tired mantra from some Labour MPs in Leave seats .
If you’re losing four times as many voters to pro second vote parties than to the BP then you have to be really stupid to continue on this path .
And the longer those ex Labour stay away the more likely that’s going to become permanent and even if Corbyn changes his stance his begrudging move and half hearted attitude will still hurt Labour .
Anyone know where this assumption that if someone does well in the leadership election that somehow guarantees them a place in the ensuing cabinet? I mean, if Boris ( or whoever ) doesn’t ask Hancock to be the teaboy, what the hell can Hancock do about it, other than fester on the backbenches?
It doesn't guarantee them a place, but does help.
Firstly, it looks spiteful and not Prime Ministerial to demote your defeated rivals.
Secondly, people can be REALLY bitter and vengeful - look at May's treatment of Osborne and the consequences for her (he wasn't a candidate for PM, of course, but she did deliberately humiliate him).
Thirdly, standing and doing reasonably well indicates you'll not be festering alone on the backbenches. 20 people obviously thought Hancock should be PM, so that's a respectable sized gang he'd potentially be have a lot of sway with if he wanted to cause you trouble.
Finally, all this matters a hell of a lot more when you've not got a majority and when every vote counts if you're to do any sort of Brexit deal.
By my calculation, that's 319 who are not-Tories, not-DUP, not Sinn Fein, and not the Speaker, v. 313 Tories.
So the Tories+DUP = 323, a majority of 4 over the rest. If the DUP abstain, then the Tories lose a confidence vote by 6. (Though technically they have a "confidence and supply" agreement - so they shouldn't do that!)
Don't forget the dep speakers
Ah. Of course.
That makes it 317 who are not Tories, plus 312 Tories.
The Gvernment would lose a confidence vote by 5 if the DUP abstain, and a Gov win by 5 if the DUP honour the confidence + supply agreement.
Not all non-Tories will support a VONC.
Won't need to be a confidence vote. Boris will propose an early election motion and challenge magic grandpa to not back him.
Think about why an early election with the Tories promising guaranteed Brexit on Halloween: Gut the Brexit Party risk Destroy Corbyn Remove the wets Win a majority allowing Bozza to do what he wants
Or wait: Allow Farage to become saint-like amongst Brexity people Allow Brexit Party to embed itself in people's voting intention Allow Labour time to give Jezbollah an early retirement to the allotment Cement the Tories as the party of dither
He will go to the country. 17th or 24th October.
I think that your assessment is correct.
Logically this has to be the only viable option. But how will he avoid a VoNC beforehand ?
Anyone know where this assumption that if someone does well in the leadership election that somehow guarantees them a place in the ensuing cabinet? I mean, if Boris ( or whoever ) doesn’t ask Hancock to be the teaboy, what the hell can Hancock do about it, other than fester on the backbenches?
I would define "doing well" in the leadership election in terms of how well they conduct themselves in the process i.e. running for election without indulging in direct personal attacks on other candidates. By that criteria several contenders have already ruled themselves out and Johnson cannot be blamed if he chooses to offer them less rather than more.
By my calculation, that's 319 who are not-Tories, not-DUP, not Sinn Fein, and not the Speaker, v. 313 Tories.
So the Tories+DUP = 323, a majority of 4 over the rest. If the DUP abstain, then the Tories lose a confidence vote by 6. (Though technically they have a "confidence and supply" agreement - so they shouldn't do that!)
Don't forget the dep speakers
Ah. Of course.
That makes it 317 who are not Tories, plus 312 Tories.
The Gvernment would lose a confidence vote by 5 if the DUP abstain, and a Gov win by 5 if the DUP honour the confidence + supply agreement.
Not all non-Tories will support a VONC.
Won't need to be a confidence vote. Boris will propose an early election motion and challenge magic grandpa to not back him.
Think about why an early election with the Tories promising guaranteed Brexit on Halloween: Gut the Brexit Party risk Destroy Corbyn Remove the wets Win a majority allowing Bozza to do what he wants
Or wait: Allow Farage to become saint-like amongst Brexity people Allow Brexit Party to embed itself in people's voting intention Allow Labour time to give Jezbollah an early retirement to the allotment Cement the Tories as the party of dither
He will go to the country. 17th or 24th October.
I think that your assessment is correct.
Logically this has to be the only viable option. But how will he avoid a VoNC beforehand ?
If he loses the VONC, then the election is brought forward.
And the longer those ex Labour stay away the more likely that’s going to become permanent and even if Corbyn changes his stance his begrudging move and half hearted attitude will still hurt Labour .
Are they "ex Labour" or are they people who lent their vote to Labour in a unique election to prevent May winning a landslide?
By my calculation, that's 319 who are not-Tories, not-DUP, not Sinn Fein, and not the Speaker, v. 313 Tories.
So the Tories+DUP = 323, a majority of 4 over the rest. If the DUP abstain, then the Tories lose a confidence vote by 6. (Though technically they have a "confidence and supply" agreement - so they shouldn't do that!)
Don't forget the dep speakers
Ah. Of course.
That makes it 317 who are not Tories, plus 312 Tories.
The Gvernment would lose a confidence vote by 5 if the DUP abstain, and a Gov win by 5 if the DUP honour the confidence + supply agreement.
Not all non-Tories will support a VONC.
Won't need to be a confidence vote. Boris will propose an early election motion and challenge magic grandpa to not back him.
Think about why an early election with the Tories promising guaranteed Brexit on Halloween: Gut the Brexit Party risk Destroy Corbyn Remove the wets Win a majority allowing Bozza to do what he wants
Or wait: Allow Farage to become saint-like amongst Brexity people Allow Brexit Party to embed itself in people's voting intention Allow Labour time to give Jezbollah an early retirement to the allotment Cement the Tories as the party of dither
He will go to the country. 17th or 24th October.
I think that your assessment is correct.
Logically this has to be the only viable option. But how will he avoid a VoNC beforehand ?
If he loses the VONC, then the election is brought forward.
There is a "logistical" but not legal problem. What happens if he loses a VoNC in late July before Parliament adjourns ? Election in August ? Or, can the VoNC date be avoided ? Because it is in BJs interest to be PM as long as possible and let many BXP supporters get used to him being PM.
That would be way too late and would mean we'd effectively have the longest general election campaign in history in which there'd be a risk the Tories would fade into irrelevance by the time of the vote.
Johnson's best bet would be an immediate snap election with a shock and awe short campaign. It would be a high stakes gamble but it stands a chance of working.
Could we really have an election campaign during August? If so, possible dates for the election itself are 12th or 19th September.
Nope. The FTPA is very prescriptive - 25 working days between dissolution and polling day. Parliament breaks for the summer mid July (exact date still TBC) which means Boris would have to call for an election at his first session at the dispatch box, with the election at the end of August...
And still we hear the same tired mantra from some Labour MPs in Leave seats .
If you’re losing four times as many voters to pro second vote parties than to the BP then you have to be really stupid to continue on this path .
And the longer those ex Labour stay away the more likely that’s going to become permanent and even if Corbyn changes his stance his begrudging move and half hearted attitude will still hurt Labour .
Labour MPs sit in the most leave and most remain seats. We cannot and will not retain both. The problem for Jezbollah and the Stalinists running him is that if they recognise this basic political reality they wave goodbye a Labour majority government and there goes the plan to renationalise Pickfords.
Labour is burning the candle at both ends. Will lose many seats to LD and Greens and possibly even Brexit in the crossfire. Plus will lose some seats to Brexit up North but not too many I think as Leave vote will also be split.
If Johnson calls a snap election, surely there is going to be movement from those figures towards both the main parties. In which case the result will depend on whether the net movement towards the Tories is greater than or less than the net movement towards Labour.
That would be way too late and would mean we'd effectively have the longest general election campaign in history in which there'd be a risk the Tories would fade into irrelevance by the time of the vote.
Johnson's best bet would be an immediate snap election with a shock and awe short campaign. It would be a high stakes gamble but it stands a chance of working.
I think "high stakes gamble" is putting it mildly. Prime ministers usually call elections when their parties are ahead in the polls, not fourth!
And the longer those ex Labour stay away the more likely that’s going to become permanent and even if Corbyn changes his stance his begrudging move and half hearted attitude will still hurt Labour .
Are they "ex Labour" or are they people who lent their vote to Labour in a unique election to prevent May winning a landslide?
I think a bit of both .
I normally vote Labour but swing occasionally to the Lib Dems depending on where I lived . I’m one of those outcasts who think the last Labour government did well domestically.
However now in a marginal between Labour and Lib Dems unless Corbyn comes out for a second vote I won’t be voting for them. However Peterborough gives Labour some hope , faced with the BP or Tories I would vote Labour even without a second vote promise .
It’s this aspect which the current polling won’t pick up .
If Johnson calls a snap election, surely there is going to be movement from those figures towards both the main parties. In which case the result will depend on whether the net movement towards the Tories is greater than or less than the net movement towards Labour.
Exactly right. And Labour will be offering the 2nd Referendum versus the Tories offering 'proper' Hard Brexit. That will be polarizing and I think it will squeeze both the BP on one side and the LDs on the other. Who wins it, Johnson or Jeremy, I really am loathe to call.
That would be way too late and would mean we'd effectively have the longest general election campaign in history in which there'd be a risk the Tories would fade into irrelevance by the time of the vote.
Johnson's best bet would be an immediate snap election with a shock and awe short campaign. It would be a high stakes gamble but it stands a chance of working.
I think "high stakes gamble" is putting it mildly. Prime ministers usually call elections when their parties are ahead in the polls, not fourth!
Depends if Boris can enthuse those Tory voters currently on strike and sat with the Brexit Party. It's an easier fix than Labour's problem, which is that their 2017 vote has gone in disparate and distinctly different directions. A 2019 election is potentially a horrible prospect for Labour. But if offered it, they couldn't thwart it.
The poll putting the LDs ahead of both Lab and Con is a good incentive for Sarah Wollaston and Heidi Allen to join the yellows.
Soubry is the problem. Broxtowe does have a LD tradition in local polls.
Anna Soubry is 62. I think she'll either stand down at the next election or do a kamikaze mission as [insert future name of Change UK here]. She might even survive it... personal loyalty and a big-ish Brexit Party vote in her constituency, and you can well see the winner getting less than 30%.
I don't suppose she'll lose much sleep over it all though.
She's not, I think, ultimately a centrist who'd feel hugely comfortable in the Lib Dems. She's an idiosyncratic eccentric - she'd be comfortable with the Lib Dems on Europe, but what else?
That's very different from Heidi Allen or Chuka Umunna, who were always on the moderate wing of their respective former parties. It's a bit more like Sarah Wollaston... although the preponderance of her slightly eccentric collection of views is towards the liberal/progressive side of things.
And still we hear the same tired mantra from some Labour MPs in Leave seats .
If you’re losing four times as many voters to pro second vote parties than to the BP then you have to be really stupid to continue on this path .
And the longer those ex Labour stay away the more likely that’s going to become permanent and even if Corbyn changes his stance his begrudging move and half hearted attitude will still hurt Labour .
Labour MPs sit in the most leave and most remain seats. We cannot and will not retain both. The problem for Jezbollah and the Stalinists running him is that if they recognise this basic political reality they wave goodbye a Labour majority government and there goes the plan to renationalise Pickfords.
Trying to be rational I believe an election would see labour lose lots of northern seats and also London and the South to the Lib Dems. On top of that extinction in Scotland leaving labour in a very bad place and the conservatives as a minority government needing to build a coalition
2019 'Rose garden love in' with Boris and Lib Dem leader (whoever that is) !!!!!!!!
Fortunately Boris should get a majority of Brexit Party voters back to the Tories, Labour though will have a bigger problem if they really have fallen behind the LDs unless Corbyn commits to EUref2 (which could in turn cost Labour Leave voting marginal seats like Peterborough)
Probably will be an election soon after Johnson becomes PM and Johnson and Farage will probably do a deal, probably ensuring tory majority. Tragedy that we have such a useless leader of the opposition at this time.
That would make sense. But Brexit Party are not going to step down for a re-jigged or as it is WA, a condition would be No Deal...
Hancock's departure gives Rory the chance to get through the next round if he picks up most of Hancock's voters and knocks out Javid
Then the big Mo will be behind him and he could end up being Johnson's opponent with the members. He will lose badly but it will set him up for the next one.
Incidentally, Johnson could be the first Muslim PM. His great grandfather on his father's side was a Muslim IIRC.
Hancock's departure gives Rory the chance to get through the next round if he picks up most of Hancock's voters and knocks out Javid
Also, don't underestimate tactical voting. Part of Johnson't challenge this weekend is to discourage it, but there is a pretty good argument given he is so far ahead for some of his supporters to peel off to knock out people they see as most dangerous. And it's a fairly reasonable argument for a Johnson supporter to see Hunt, Gove and Javid as most dangerous for their man.
The poll putting the LDs ahead of both Lab and Con is a good incentive for Sarah Wollaston and Heidi Allen to join the yellows.
Soubry is the problem. Broxtowe does have a LD tradition in local polls.
Anna Soubry is 62. I think she'll either stand down at the next election or do a kamikaze mission as [insert future name of Change UK here]. She might even survive it... personal loyalty and a big-ish Brexit Party vote in her constituency, and you can well see the winner getting less than 30%.
I don't suppose she'll lose much sleep over it all though.
She's not, I think, ultimately a centrist who'd feel hugely comfortable in the Lib Dems. She's an idiosyncratic eccentric - she'd be comfortable with the Lib Dems on Europe, but what else?
That's very different from Heidi Allen or Chuka Umunna, who were always on the moderate wing of their respective former parties. It's a bit more like Sarah Wollaston... although the preponderance of her slightly eccentric collection of views is towards the liberal/progressive side of things.
Outside of Brexit, Soubry's voting record would appall most LibDem members.
Hancock's departure gives Rory the chance to get through the next round if he picks up most of Hancock's voters and knocks out Javid
Then the big Mo will be behind him and he could end up being Johnson's opponent with the members. He will lose badly but it will set him up for the next one.
Incidentally, Johnson could be the first Muslim PM. His great grandfather on his father's side was a Muslim IIRC.
Possibly though Javid and Raab and Gove's backers are more Eurosceptic than Hancock's, thus Rory also needs to knock out Hunt and get his backers to have a chance of the final 2
And still we hear the same tired mantra from some Labour MPs in Leave seats .
If you’re losing four times as many voters to pro second vote parties than to the BP then you have to be really stupid to continue on this path .
And the longer those ex Labour stay away the more likely that’s going to become permanent and even if Corbyn changes his stance his begrudging move and half hearted attitude will still hurt Labour .
Labour MPs sit in the most leave and most remain seats. We cannot and will not retain both. The problem for Jezbollah and the Stalinists running him is that if they recognise this basic political reality they wave goodbye a Labour majority government and there goes the plan to renationalise Pickfords.
There is an additional problem for Corbyn in that even if he came out as the Leaver he is, the rest of his political baggage accumulated over many decades still seems designed to appeal to repel traditional working class supporters of Leave.
I would not, however, characterise all of the switch of support to the Greens and LDs as being motivated solely by their support for Remain. It may be a prior condition, but the idea of not voting for a party not run by a Marxist clique will also be an essential push factor for many.
Could we really have an election campaign during August? If so, possible dates for the election itself are 12th or 19th September.
Nope. The FTPA is very prescriptive - 25 working days between dissolution and polling day. Parliament breaks for the summer mid July (exact date still TBC) which means Boris would have to call for an election at his first session at the dispatch box, with the election at the end of August...
Hancock's departure gives Rory the chance to get through the next round if he picks up most of Hancock's voters and knocks out Javid
Also, don't underestimate tactical voting. Part of Johnson't challenge this weekend is to discourage it, but there is a pretty good argument given he is so far ahead for some of his supporters to peel off to knock out people they see as most dangerous. And it's a fairly reasonable argument for a Johnson supporter to see Hunt, Gove and Javid as most dangerous for their man.
Actually Raab polls better with Tory members v Boris than all of the above, if it was a Raab v Boris final 2 that is the only runoff I could see Boris losing, though I think he would still win it
And still we hear the same tired mantra from some Labour MPs in Leave seats .
If you’re losing four times as many voters to pro second vote parties than to the BP then you have to be really stupid to continue on this path .
And the longer those ex Labour stay away the more likely that’s going to become permanent and even if Corbyn changes his stance his begrudging move and half hearted attitude will still hurt Labour .
Labour MPs sit in the most leave and most remain seats. We cannot and will not retain both. The problem for Jezbollah and the Stalinists running him is that if they recognise this basic political reality they wave goodbye a Labour majority government and there goes the plan to renationalise Pickfords.
There is an additional problem for Corbyn in that even if he came out as the Leaver he is, the rest of his political baggage accumulated over many decades still seems designed to appeal to repel traditional working class supporters of Leave.
I would not, however, characterise all of the switch of support to the Greens and LDs as being motivated solely by their support for Remain. It may be a prior condition, but the idea of not voting for a party not run by a Marxist clique will also be an essential push factor for many.
Delete one of the "nots" in the final sentence above!
Could we really have an election campaign during August? If so, possible dates for the election itself are 12th or 19th September.
Nope. The FTPA is very prescriptive - 25 working days between dissolution and polling day. Parliament breaks for the summer mid July (exact date still TBC) which means Boris would have to call for an election at his first session at the dispatch box, with the election at the end of August...
Hancock's departure gives Rory the chance to get through the next round if he picks up most of Hancock's voters and knocks out Javid
Also, don't underestimate tactical voting. Part of Johnson't challenge this weekend is to discourage it, but there is a pretty good argument given he is so far ahead for some of his supporters to peel off to knock out people they see as most dangerous. And it's a fairly reasonable argument for a Johnson supporter to see Hunt, Gove and Javid as most dangerous for their man.
Actually Raab polls better with Tory members v Boris than all of the above, if it was a Raab v Boris final 2 that is the only runoff I could see Boris losing, though I think he would still win it
That would be way too late and would mean we'd effectively have the longest general election campaign in history in which there'd be a risk the Tories would fade into irrelevance by the time of the vote.
Johnson's best bet would be an immediate snap election with a shock and awe short campaign. It would be a high stakes gamble but it stands a chance of working.
I think "high stakes gamble" is putting it mildly. Prime ministers usually call elections when their parties are ahead in the polls, not fourth!
This. People are talking of Boris as if he is a confident gambler, willing to put his life’s dream on the line in a bold make-or-break election. Meanwhile we look at him skulking away hiding from every interview and trying to play it all absolutely safe.
Doesn’t compute!
If Boris gets the job and still commands a majority, he is going to stick around as long as he can, just as Mrs May has done.
There might be an election IF the Tory remainers take the career-finishing decision to VONC him down AND a majority cannot be assembled around a replacement. But that’s a big IF. Sure, it’s possible. But the odds aren’t that short.
Hancock's departure gives Rory the chance to get through the next round if he picks up most of Hancock's voters and knocks out Javid
Also, don't underestimate tactical voting. Part of Johnson't challenge this weekend is to discourage it, but there is a pretty good argument given he is so far ahead for some of his supporters to peel off to knock out people they see as most dangerous. And it's a fairly reasonable argument for a Johnson supporter to see Hunt, Gove and Javid as most dangerous for their man.
There is an overwhelming argument for Johnson supporters not to engage in tactical voting given what happened to Portillo and the fact that Johnson is a shoo-in if he makes the final two, so it doesn't really matter who his opponent is.
Hancock's departure gives Rory the chance to get through the next round if he picks up most of Hancock's voters and knocks out Javid
Also, don't underestimate tactical voting. Part of Johnson't challenge this weekend is to discourage it, but there is a pretty good argument given he is so far ahead for some of his supporters to peel off to knock out people they see as most dangerous. And it's a fairly reasonable argument for a Johnson supporter to see Hunt, Gove and Javid as most dangerous for their man.
There is an overwhelming argument for Johnson supporters not to engage in tactical voting given what happened to Portillo and the fact that Johnson is a shoo-in if he makes the final two, so it doesn't really matter who his opponent is.
Foreign heads of State visit the UK all the time. The US is our principal trading partner and most important military ally. The idea that we should not invite their Head of State is for the birds.
Otoh the idea that the foreign secretary shouldn't be invited to a state dinner for said head of state because (the colour of) his face doesn't fit is apparently not for the birds. Funny old world.
If Johnson calls a snap election, surely there is going to be movement from those figures towards both the main parties. In which case the result will depend on whether the net movement towards the Tories is greater than or less than the net movement towards Labour.
Exactly right. And Labour will be offering the 2nd Referendum versus the Tories offering 'proper' Hard Brexit. That will be polarizing and I think it will squeeze both the BP on one side and the LDs on the other. Who wins it, Johnson or Jeremy, I really am loathe to call.
Labour's problem is that it will be offering a referendum which according to the JC would be between his unicorn cake deal and no deal. Remain would not be on the ballot.
Hancock's departure gives Rory the chance to get through the next round if he picks up most of Hancock's voters and knocks out Javid
Also, don't underestimate tactical voting. Part of Johnson't challenge this weekend is to discourage it, but there is a pretty good argument given he is so far ahead for some of his supporters to peel off to knock out people they see as most dangerous. And it's a fairly reasonable argument for a Johnson supporter to see Hunt, Gove and Javid as most dangerous for their man.
There is an overwhelming argument for Johnson supporters not to engage in tactical voting given what happened to Portillo and the fact that Johnson is a shoo-in if he makes the final two, so it doesn't really matter who his opponent is.
It was actually IDS supporters who engaged in tactical voting in 2001 to knock out Portillo and fave Clarke in the final 2 but Portillo ended up losing by only 1 vote to IDS so it almost backfired
Hancock's departure gives Rory the chance to get through the next round if he picks up most of Hancock's voters and knocks out Javid
Also, don't underestimate tactical voting. Part of Johnson't challenge this weekend is to discourage it, but there is a pretty good argument given he is so far ahead for some of his supporters to peel off to knock out people they see as most dangerous. And it's a fairly reasonable argument for a Johnson supporter to see Hunt, Gove and Javid as most dangerous for their man.
Actually Raab polls better with Tory members v Boris than all of the above, if it was a Raab v Boris final 2 that is the only runoff I could see Boris losing, though I think he would still win it
Hancock's departure gives Rory the chance to get through the next round if he picks up most of Hancock's voters and knocks out Javid
Also, don't underestimate tactical voting. Part of Johnson't challenge this weekend is to discourage it, but there is a pretty good argument given he is so far ahead for some of his supporters to peel off to knock out people they see as most dangerous. And it's a fairly reasonable argument for a Johnson supporter to see Hunt, Gove and Javid as most dangerous for their man.
Actually Raab polls better with Tory members v Boris than all of the above, if it was a Raab v Boris final 2 that is the only runoff I could see Boris losing, though I think he would still win it
Raab is finished in this contest. His pitch was as a more palatable version of Johnson, but the MPs don't appear to agree that he's actually more palatable, or that one is needed.
You can make a case for any of the other remaining candidates gathering up the votes of the others as the contest progresses, creating an acceptable alternative to Johnson. There's no case for Raab, and it's just a question of the optimal exit strategy for his future career now.
That would be way too late and would mean we'd effectively have the longest general election campaign in history in which there'd be a risk the Tories would fade into irrelevance by the time of the vote.
Johnson's best bet would be an immediate snap election with a shock and awe short campaign. It would be a high stakes gamble but it stands a chance of working.
I think "high stakes gamble" is putting it mildly. Prime ministers usually call elections when their parties are ahead in the polls, not fourth!
This. People are talking of Boris as if he is a confident gambler, willing to put his life’s dream on the line in a bold make-or-break election. Meanwhile we look at him skulking away hiding from every interview and trying to play it all absolutely safe.
Doesn’t compute!
Yes, it's quite likely he'll just be paralysed with indecision.
Foreign heads of State visit the UK all the time. The US is our principal trading partner and most important military ally. The idea that we should not invite their Head of State is for the birds.
Otoh the idea that the foreign secretary shouldn't be invited to a state dinner for said head of state because (the colour of) his face doesn't fit is apparently not for the birds. Funny old world.
Much more likely he wasn't invited because he wouldn't bundle Assange on a plane, David Miliband rendition-stylee, than his colour......
I couldnt care less about either and doubt most people do. Taking cocaine and actively creating stricter drug enforcement is pretty low though.
That’s nonsense. If he had got caught speeding when he was 20 would it be wrong for him to introduce stricter speed limits 20 years later. Or can he not introduce new environmental rules now because he didn’t do he recycling in the 1990s?
No idea but leaving aside the merits of the issue, Michael Gove is 51 so 20 years ago he was 31. This is not like David Cameron having the odd smoke at school, at half that age, when the term youthful indiscretion might have been appropriate.
So nobody changes between 30s and 50s?
How come Labour won the 2017 election as far as those in their 30s voted but those in the 50s voted Tory?
31 year olds are closer to 18 year olds both numerically and by voting than they are to 51 year olds.
Stop knee-jerking and read what I said, which was merely to point out that whatever Gove did get up to, it was hardly a youthful indiscretion as the propagandists would have it.
That would be way too late and would mean we'd effectively have the longest general election campaign in history in which there'd be a risk the Tories would fade into irrelevance by the time of the vote.
Johnson's best bet would be an immediate snap election with a shock and awe short campaign. It would be a high stakes gamble but it stands a chance of working.
I think "high stakes gamble" is putting it mildly. Prime ministers usually call elections when their parties are ahead in the polls, not fourth!
This. People are talking of Boris as if he is a confident gambler, willing to put his life’s dream on the line in a bold make-or-break election. Meanwhile we look at him skulking away hiding from every interview and trying to play it all absolutely safe.
Doesn’t compute!
Yes, it's quite likely he'll just be paralysed with indecision.
I expect he'll get a poll boost when he takes over. Then, he'll have to decide if it's sufficient to capitalise on.
The poll putting the LDs ahead of both Lab and Con is a good incentive for Sarah Wollaston and Heidi Allen to join the yellows.
Soubry is the problem. Broxtowe does have a LD tradition in local polls.
Anna Soubry is 62. I think she'll either stand down at the next election or do a kamikaze mission as [insert future name of Change UK here]. She might even survive it... personal loyalty and a big-ish Brexit Party vote in her constituency, and you can well see the winner getting less than 30%.
I don't suppose she'll lose much sleep over it all though.
She's not, I think, ultimately a centrist who'd feel hugely comfortable in the Lib Dems. She's an idiosyncratic eccentric - she'd be comfortable with the Lib Dems on Europe, but what else?
That's very different from Heidi Allen or Chuka Umunna, who were always on the moderate wing of their respective former parties. It's a bit more like Sarah Wollaston... although the preponderance of her slightly eccentric collection of views is towards the liberal/progressive side of things.
The extra support the LDs have secured in the latest YouGov is predominantly from 2017 Labour voters with very little coming from 2017 Conservatives. If the LDs want to consolidate their present position with those Labour switchers, they would be advised not to run candidates against those who formed Change UK but make a point of using Soubry as an exception on the grounds she is still a fairly hard line Tory on anything bar Brexit, in contrast to Allen and Wollaston.
And the longer those ex Labour stay away the more likely that’s going to become permanent and even if Corbyn changes his stance his begrudging move and half hearted attitude will still hurt Labour .
Are they "ex Labour" or are they people who lent their vote to Labour in a unique election to prevent May winning a landslide?
I think a bit of both .
I normally vote Labour but swing occasionally to the Lib Dems depending on where I lived . I’m one of those outcasts who think the last Labour government did well domestically.
However now in a marginal between Labour and Lib Dems unless Corbyn comes out for a second vote I won’t be voting for them. However Peterborough gives Labour some hope , faced with the BP or Tories I would vote Labour even without a second vote promise .
It’s this aspect which the current polling won’t pick up .
That's a pretty common view in my circle of pro-EU left-liberal voters. Personally I think (contrary to RochdalePioneer) that Labour will offer "best possible EU deal vs Remain", but will resist committing to campaigning for either ("we shall leave it to voters to make the choice").
Fortunately Boris should get a majority of Brexit Party voters back to the Tories, Labour though will have a bigger problem if they really have fallen behind the LDs unless Corbyn commits to EUref2 (which could in turn cost Labour Leave voting marginal seats like Peterborough)
Boris will as PM have to face reality, for once; he’ll no longer be able to run away. BXP voters won’t.
Hancock's departure gives Rory the chance to get through the next round if he picks up most of Hancock's voters and knocks out Javid
Also, don't underestimate tactical voting. Part of Johnson't challenge this weekend is to discourage it, but there is a pretty good argument given he is so far ahead for some of his supporters to peel off to knock out people they see as most dangerous. And it's a fairly reasonable argument for a Johnson supporter to see Hunt, Gove and Javid as most dangerous for their man.
There is an overwhelming argument for Johnson supporters not to engage in tactical voting given what happened to Portillo and the fact that Johnson is a shoo-in if he makes the final two, so it doesn't really matter who his opponent is.
Johnson basically already has made the final two.
I don't think he's a shoo-in for the members' ballot, although he is fairly heavy favourite. It's entirely credible he's blown off course by a newspaper revelation or stupid comment.
It's not like Hunt where you'd be pretty surprised if there was an awful gaffe, or some grainy pics, or a fairly sordid new tale of unfaithfulness and caddishness. Not being boring is Johnson't selling point and Achilles heel.
In those circumstances, if it's squeaky bum time, yes you do want the weakest possible rival.
That would be way too late and would mean we'd effectively have the longest general election campaign in history in which there'd be a risk the Tories would fade into irrelevance by the time of the vote.
Johnson's best bet would be an immediate snap election with a shock and awe short campaign. It would be a high stakes gamble but it stands a chance of working.
I think "high stakes gamble" is putting it mildly. Prime ministers usually call elections when their parties are ahead in the polls, not fourth!
This. People are talking of Boris as if he is a confident gambler, willing to put his life’s dream on the line in a bold make-or-break election. Meanwhile we look at him skulking away hiding from every interview and trying to play it all absolutely safe.
Doesn’t compute!
If Boris gets the job and still commands a majority, he is going to stick around as long as he can, just as Mrs May has done.
There might be an election IF the Tory remainers take the career-finishing decision to VONC him down AND a majority cannot be assembled around a replacement. But that’s a big IF. Sure, it’s possible. But the odds aren’t that short.
Boris Johnson famously wrote two articles when deciding whether to back Remain or Leave. He's a ditherer, not a gambler.
Hancock's departure gives Rory the chance to get through the next round if he picks up most of Hancock's voters and knocks out Javid
Also, don't underestimate tactical voting. Part of Johnson't challenge this weekend is to discourage it, but there is a pretty good argument given he is so far ahead for some of his supporters to peel off to knock out people they see as most dangerous. And it's a fairly reasonable argument for a Johnson supporter to see Hunt, Gove and Javid as most dangerous for their man.
There is an overwhelming argument for Johnson supporters not to engage in tactical voting given what happened to Portillo and the fact that Johnson is a shoo-in if he makes the final two, so it doesn't really matter who his opponent is.
Johnson basically already has made the final two.
I don't think he's a shoo-in for the members' ballot, although he is fairly heavy favourite. It's entirely credible he's blown off course by a newspaper revelation or stupid comment.
It's not like Hunt where you'd be pretty surprised if there was an awful gaffe, or some grainy pics, or a fairly sordid new tale of unfaithfulness and caddishness. Not being boring is Johnson't selling point and Achilles heel.
In those circumstances, if it's squeaky bum time, yes you do want the weakest possible rival.
You’ve written the playbook for Rory. He gets to be the rival on the basis that Tory members will never choose him, and then the terrible story emerges about Boris...
That would be way too late and would mean we'd effectively have the longest general election campaign in history in which there'd be a risk the Tories would fade into irrelevance by the time of the vote.
Johnson's best bet would be an immediate snap election with a shock and awe short campaign. It would be a high stakes gamble but it stands a chance of working.
I think "high stakes gamble" is putting it mildly. Prime ministers usually call elections when their parties are ahead in the polls, not fourth!
This. People are talking of Boris as if he is a confident gambler, willing to put his life’s dream on the line in a bold make-or-break election. Meanwhile we look at him skulking away hiding from every interview and trying to play it all absolutely safe.
Doesn’t compute!
Yes, it's quite likely he'll just be paralysed with indecision.
The prospect of being the Lady Jane Grey of Downing Street must be a sobering thought.
Comments
But to actually get to run you must have demonstrated to colleagues some ability. So makes sense to use that knowledge. There is also the need to have a balanced Cabinet that represents the party (in normal times anyway).
..... on electoral reform.
I am expecting (and his supporters are backing this up) that once elected he will speak to Merkel and Macron and Barnier. Thats his August task - understand in clear unambiguous language that there is no further haggling on the withdrawal agreement. He doesn't need an election to provide him a mandate to do that.
When its clear there is nothing left to do, thats when to deliver as promised on Halloween its no deal. Whilst no deal is the legal default, parliament would likely vote to block it / send a deputation to Brussels pleading for more time etc. So Parliament returns on 5th September, Boris calls a motion for an early election and off we go.
Remember - it doesn't matter that it takes time to actually legislate for the things we'd need to have in place for no deal. That is all project fear fake news. Herr Hitler didn't give us notice to put things in place, he just invaded Poland. Bulldog spirit and all that.
2015 voters would be a much better base for party analysis than 2017 which is a mishmash of people voting by party and by Brexit.
*insert Cathy Newman meme here*
Firstly, it looks spiteful and not Prime Ministerial to demote your defeated rivals.
Secondly, people can be REALLY bitter and vengeful - look at May's treatment of Osborne and the consequences for her (he wasn't a candidate for PM, of course, but she did deliberately humiliate him).
Thirdly, standing and doing reasonably well indicates you'll not be festering alone on the backbenches. 20 people obviously thought Hancock should be PM, so that's a respectable sized gang he'd potentially be have a lot of sway with if he wanted to cause you trouble.
Finally, all this matters a hell of a lot more when you've not got a majority and when every vote counts if you're to do any sort of Brexit deal.
If you’re losing four times as many voters to pro second vote parties than to the BP then you have to be really stupid to continue on this path .
And the longer those ex Labour stay away the more likely that’s going to become permanent and even if Corbyn changes his stance his begrudging move and half hearted attitude will still hurt Labour .
Johnson's best bet would be an immediate snap election with a shock and awe short campaign. It would be a high stakes gamble but it stands a chance of working.
I normally vote Labour but swing occasionally to the Lib Dems depending on where I lived . I’m one of those outcasts who think the last Labour government did well domestically.
However now in a marginal between Labour and Lib Dems unless Corbyn comes out for a second vote I won’t be voting for them. However Peterborough gives Labour some hope , faced with the BP or Tories I would vote Labour even without a second vote promise .
It’s this aspect which the current polling won’t pick up .
I don't suppose she'll lose much sleep over it all though.
She's not, I think, ultimately a centrist who'd feel hugely comfortable in the Lib Dems. She's an idiosyncratic eccentric - she'd be comfortable with the Lib Dems on Europe, but what else?
That's very different from Heidi Allen or Chuka Umunna, who were always on the moderate wing of their respective former parties. It's a bit more like Sarah Wollaston... although the preponderance of her slightly eccentric collection of views is towards the liberal/progressive side of things.
2019 'Rose garden love in' with Boris and Lib Dem leader (whoever that is) !!!!!!!!
Incidentally, Johnson could be the first Muslim PM. His great grandfather on his father's side was a Muslim IIRC.
Will of the people blah blah, we made our decision to keep this system which ensures decisive government blah blah....
If no one can win a VoNC we then enter a 5 week election campaign....
https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1139496063293886467
She's still a Tory, deep down.
Furthermore following the election of the last two, there will be several televised hustings across the UK
Boris needs to come out fighting, not going into hiding
I would not, however, characterise all of the switch of support to the Greens and LDs as being motivated solely by their support for Remain. It may be a prior condition, but the idea of not voting for a party not run by a Marxist clique will also be an essential push factor for many.
This. People are talking of Boris as if he is a confident gambler, willing to put his life’s dream on the line in a bold make-or-break election. Meanwhile we look at him skulking away hiding from every interview and trying to play it all absolutely safe.
Doesn’t compute!
If Boris gets the job and still commands a majority, he is going to stick around as long as he can, just as Mrs May has done.
There might be an election IF the Tory remainers take the career-finishing decision to VONC him down AND a majority cannot be assembled around a replacement. But that’s a big IF. Sure, it’s possible. But the odds aren’t that short.
Funny old world.
Which means that no remainer will switch back...
You can make a case for any of the other remaining candidates gathering up the votes of the others as the contest progresses, creating an acceptable alternative to Johnson. There's no case for Raab, and it's just a question of the optimal exit strategy for his future career now.
Labour will never win an election if they can’t narrow the gap between them and the Tories in that age range .
I don't think he's a shoo-in for the members' ballot, although he is fairly heavy favourite. It's entirely credible he's blown off course by a newspaper revelation or stupid comment.
It's not like Hunt where you'd be pretty surprised if there was an awful gaffe, or some grainy pics, or a fairly sordid new tale of unfaithfulness and caddishness. Not being boring is Johnson't selling point and Achilles heel.
In those circumstances, if it's squeaky bum time, yes you do want the weakest possible rival.
Nevertheless a very weak straw.