Boris - Excellent result Hunt - Poor Gove - Better than expected Raab - Poor Sajid - Disappointing Hancock - Disappointing Rory - Good The Rest - Over and out
The only way Rory's result can be considered good is if Hunt's result is considered to be catastrophic. I think that might be right.
Rory Stewart should be 100/1 now, yet on BF he's barely moved from the 30s he's been on for ages. Impressive to survive, but unlikely to make it to the next round. I guess he has the debates now to work some magic - and he does have a distinct style and offering so maybe the debate will do him some good.
This will be a coronation. In some ways it may be better if so. Keeps Boris from making more undeliverable promises to the membership, perhaps gets him in place before summer to have a settling in period before the now inevitable autumn election. Rory is the only one who would want to force it to the members even with no hope of winning and he won't last another round.
Where does Rory Stewart pick up votes from the three that have dropped out? Same for Hancock. Both will probably get fewer votes in second round - mostly to Hunt. Small increase for Boris Of the rest is anybody's guess
How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific
Lots of PB humble pie!
I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.
I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?
Laying Jacob Rees-Mogg was a goldmine.
Ruth Davidson was a highly profitable lay briefly as well.
Rory fabulous on Politics Live. He is absolutely right about the deal being the deal take it or leave it. Problem is that Tory members either don't believe this or don't care.
Boris - Excellent result Hunt - Poor Gove - Better than expected Raab - Poor Sajid - Disappointing Hancock - Disappointing Rory - Good The Rest - Over and out
Where does Rory Stewart pick up votes from the three that have dropped out? Same for Hancock. Both will probably get fewer votes in second round - mostly to Hunt. Small increase for Boris Of the rest is anybody's guess
Hancock and Javed should team up with Hancock being a potential Chancellor for potential PM Javed
Where does Rory Stewart pick up votes from the three that have dropped out? Same for Hancock. Both will probably get fewer votes in second round - mostly to Hunt. Small increase for Boris Of the rest is anybody's guess
Hancock and Javed should team up with Hancock being a potential Chancellor for potential PM Javed
Rory fabulous on Politics Live. He is absolutely right about the deal being the deal take it or leave it. Problem is that Tory members either don't believe this or don't care.
Rory fabulous on Politics Live. He is absolutely right about the deal being the deal take it or leave it. Problem is that Tory members either don't believe this or don't care.
How does his strategy differ from May's, exactly?
It doesn't, he just hopes he can convince the ERG that the deal isn't changing where she couldn't.
Where does Rory Stewart pick up votes from the three that have dropped out? Same for Hancock. Both will probably get fewer votes in second round - mostly to Hunt. Small increase for Boris Of the rest is anybody's guess
Rory fabulous on Politics Live. He is absolutely right about the deal being the deal take it or leave it. Problem is that Tory members either don't believe this or don't care.
This one believes it and always has. Watch Boris get a couple of tweaks and pass it
Looking forward to your prediction for the next round.
Almost as good as mine (which tweaked yours) . We both underestimated Boris, and I thought Sajid would do better.
Gove and Hunt need to do a deal.
Why, it's AV? One of them will probably make it to the final 2 anyway. If they do a deal one of them definitely will, but the one who drops out gives up their shot.
Rory fabulous on Politics Live. He is absolutely right about the deal being the deal take it or leave it. Problem is that Tory members either don't believe this or don't care.
How does his strategy differ from May's, exactly?
It doesn't, he just hopes he can convince the ERG that the deal isn't changing where she couldn't.
Er, I thought he was supposed be the candidate for sensible people who reject unicorns?
Just looking at the pictures on BBC of all the candidates and can’t understand why they have smiling pictures of everyone except Raab who looks like a serial killer. A quick google shows plenty of photos of Raab leering happily.
If I was a serial killer I would be quite insulted by that comparison. If you prick us do we not cut your throat (or something like that)?
Rory fabulous on Politics Live. He is absolutely right about the deal being the deal take it or leave it. Problem is that Tory members either don't believe this or don't care.
How does his strategy differ from May's, exactly?
It doesn't. But it is the real world.
The Deal No Deal No Brexit
And the other candidates (and Jezbollah!) are talking rampant bollocks about renegotiating with the EU. If we leave with a deal we leave with May's deal
So, next round they need 32. Raab can maybe hope to get those from the R1 dropouts. How about Stewart/Hancock/Javid? Unless one of them drops out now, they might all fail to make that 32.
The expectation beaters here are Johnson and Stewart. The fear for Johnson that the pledges wouldn't translate haven't happened and he's in a very strong position.
Stewart is the surprise package and, while he's still an outsider, I think he's every chance of passing the next hurdle.
Javid and Hancock just haven't got the momentum. If Stewart can see them off, there are some votes there for him.
Gove has stayed in the game, but Hunt is still better placed. Neither will be thrilled today.
Of the 3 candidates eliminated Harper, McVey and Leadsom, 2/3 were Leavers which could boost Boris, Raab and Gove as the remaining Leavers in the next round
Rory fabulous on Politics Live. He is absolutely right about the deal being the deal take it or leave it. Problem is that Tory members either don't believe this or don't care.
How does his strategy differ from May's, exactly?
It doesn't. But it is the real world.
The Deal No Deal No Brexit
And the other candidates (and Jezbollah!) are talking rampant bollocks about renegotiating with the EU. If we leave with a deal we leave with May's deal
Yes and no. As we said on the other thread, there is probably enough space for some face-saving tweaks to May's WA.
The expectation beaters here are Johnson and Stewart. The fear for Johnson that the pledges wouldn't translate haven't happened and he's in a very strong position.
Stewart is the surprise package and, while he's still an outsider, I think he's every chance of passing the next hurdle.
Javid and Hancock just haven't got the momentum. If Stewart can see them off, there are some votes there for him.
Gove has stayed in the game, but Hunt is still better placed. Neither will be thrilled today.
And I forgot about Raab. I'd not be surprised if he drops out. His selling point was that he was the acceptable face of Johnson, but not enough bought it, frankly.
Down to 1 party conference speech, the leader will be chosen before conference and polling showing Cameron doing better against Brown than Davis, polling already shows Boris doing better against Corbyn than any other candidate
Rory fabulous on Politics Live. He is absolutely right about the deal being the deal take it or leave it. Problem is that Tory members either don't believe this or don't care.
How does his strategy differ from May's, exactly?
It doesn't. But it is the real world.
The Deal No Deal No Brexit
And the other candidates (and Jezbollah!) are talking rampant bollocks about renegotiating with the EU. If we leave with a deal we leave with May's deal
Er, what? What about Labour's offer to support the deal if it either included a custom's union (a change to the PD that the EU would have accepted) or was subject to a confirmatory referendum? Why aren't those options in your list?
Down to 1 party conference speech, the leader will be chosen before conference and polling showing Cameron doing better against Brown than Davis, polling already shows Boris doing better against Corbyn than any other candidate
IIRC that was mostly down to the fact that David Davis spoke from behind a lectern whereas David Cameron paced around the stage while speaking.
Andrea Leadsom going out leaves me with just Rory Stewart as a possible losing bet in this race. I'd have thought Jeremy Hunt would be Boris Johnson's preferred opponent. Not that he will be too concerned about any of them.
Hunt, Gove, Javid, Stewart and Hancock need to get in a room together and agree on which of them is going to be the anti Boris candidate. The sooner the better.
The expectation beaters here are Johnson and Stewart. The fear for Johnson that the pledges wouldn't translate haven't happened and he's in a very strong position.
Stewart is the surprise package and, while he's still an outsider, I think he's every chance of passing the next hurdle.
Javid and Hancock just haven't got the momentum. If Stewart can see them off, there are some votes there for him.
Gove has stayed in the game, but Hunt is still better placed. Neither will be thrilled today.
And I forgot about Raab. I'd not be surprised if he drops out. His selling point was that he was the acceptable face of Johnson, but not enough bought it, frankly.
Agreed. His best angle now is to get a top job from Boris. Then ask his supporters to transfer their votes. Which could indeed result in a coronation.
An interesting possibility - and just a possibility - is that Johnson got some votes from anti-Johnson people in this round that they can withdraw in future rounds, giving the sense of him going backwards!
Comments
I seemed to remember a similar approach for a previous leader, it didn't turn out well.
That Leadsom price will go down as one of the weirdest anomalies in British political betting history.
Gove pulls out denying the membership a vote.
When BoZo fucks up, probably the next day, the membership revolt...
Same for Hancock.
Both will probably get fewer votes in second round - mostly to Hunt.
Small increase for Boris
Of the rest is anybody's guess
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1139142602668875778?s=20
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1139143880077643777?s=20
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1139145007879852035?s=20
Gove and Hunt need to do a deal.
Come on you almighty scandal!
Hope for Hunt and Gove yet..
"Raab for leader"
When do we want it?
"Now mummy Andrea's been knocked out"
Catchy....
We know he has had multiple affairs, love child, drugs, bullingdon, said all sorts of offensive things etc etc etc.
The real scandal is the millions wasted in London on futile vanity projects. But Tory members don’t seem to care.
And I voted Rory in conhome poll
Gove - 35 endorsements; 37 votes (+2)
Hancock - 17 endorsements; 20 votes (+3)
Harper - 8 endorsements; 10 votes (+2)
Hunt - 39 endorsements; 43 votes (+4)
Javid - 19 endorsements; 23 votes (+4)
Johnson - 87 endorsements; 114 votes (+27)
Leadsom - 5 endorsements; 11 votes (+6)
McVey - 6 endorsements; 9 votes (+3)
Raab - 23 endorsements; 27 votes (+4)
Stewart - 7 endorsements; 19 votes (+12)
The Deal
No Deal
No Brexit
And the other candidates (and Jezbollah!) are talking rampant bollocks about renegotiating with the EU. If we leave with a deal we leave with May's deal
That said birds do have a history of getting Boris into trouble and halting his political ambitions.
I live in Hope, well I live in Dore which is next to Hope.
Stewart is the surprise package and, while he's still an outsider, I think he's every chance of passing the next hurdle.
Javid and Hancock just haven't got the momentum. If Stewart can see them off, there are some votes there for him.
Gove has stayed in the game, but Hunt is still better placed. Neither will be thrilled today.
☺
Probably good news for the beige Hunt.
stillfriends?Will anyone commission a poll to do fieldwork after the TV debate to publish before the next round? It's a tight schedule.
Javid looks to have seriously underperformed and is surely out of it.
Not impossible Rory clears round 2 and takes support from Harper and Hancock to get into the low 40s before he drops out.
Boris should have 150+ votes in the tank once the dust settles as he’ll scrape a good 30+ from McVey, Leadsom and surely Raab too now.
Boris is PM by the end of next week?
Both the lady candidates going out in the first round doesn't look great for the Tories.
Can't see anything stopping Boris at this point.