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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So which ones will survive the first vote?
CON MP voting in the first round of the leadership contest ended at noon and the result is expected by 1pm. Contenders need to have secured 17 or more votes to get into the next round.
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Congratulations.
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1139116590270693376
Boris Johnson 103
Jeremy Hunt 45
Michael Gove 42
Dominic Raab 30
Rory Stewart 22
Sajid Javid 21
Matthew Hancock 19
Andrea Leadsom 12
Mark Harper 10
Esther McVey 9
Given Theresa May has virtually bankrupted the party I'd not be surprised...
This would fit in with the speculation that CCHQ doesn’t have a pot to piss in.
(Although the two front runners are probably the only two who could actually write a cheque for that much).
Edit: Still, fairness and the Tories - not natural bedfellows.
https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1139129888840044545
Boris Johnson 103
Jeremy Hunt 50
Michael Gove 42
Sajid Javid 32
Dominic Raab 27
Rory Stewart 18
Andrea Leadsom 14
Matthew Hancock 11
Mark Harper 8
Esther McVey 8
I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
If Boris wasn't standing Raab would would win this IMO.
I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?
Good point :- say you are 2nd on <100 votes to Boris's 200+, what's the point of wasting £150k, you might just as well concede at that point.
At what stage does a phrase like that become an idiom as opposed to a quote you should cite?
Ditto in 2005/03 with David Davis.
Ditto in 2001 with Portillo.
Ditto in 1997 with Clarke, Hezza, and Portillo.
Ditto in 1990 with Hezza and earlier than that John Moore!
Ditto in 1975 with Willie Whitelaw.
Works really well
Until it doesn’t
The only thing I will say in my defence is that when the facts changed I quickly changed my betting position.
But wouldn't it shake things up if he did!
If we are talking about good header writers, then may I point out that @corporeal wrote two or three absolute stunners earlier in the year? @Sunil_Prasannan 's articles about by-elections also required prior research and impressed. I like the more think-pieces by @Cyclefree , @david_herdson , @AlastairMeeks and @Alanbrooke and read them with pleasure but I do enjoy the more research-y ones.
The siterunners @rcs1000 , @TheScreamingEagles and - of course - @MikeSmithson are also good.
It ought to be a criminal offence to shoehorn someone else's good writing into your execrable bilge, though.
However those positive qualities are also rather shallow, and he has a host of other characteristics that make him wholly unsuitable for high office.
It does say something about the state of CCHQ funding, however.
I didn't intentionally omit them in my earlier comment - just didn't scroll back far enough to turn up their articles.
There were fewer Tory leadership contests, so say between 2005 and 2016 there were quite a few favourites to succeed David Cameron, such as David Davis, George Osborne, Boris Johnson to name but a few.
So after a gap of eleven years between contests we’re now on our second in three years.
If you laid all the favourites then that would minimise losses on a Johnson victory, and if there were enough of them you could still come out ahead, depending on the exact odds and stakes.
Sticking my neck out, I reckon Leadsom will achieve 20
Also, £150k simply isn't a problem. These people have plenty of wealthy supporters and will be spending a substantial sum on their campaigns anyway.
It could be that will still work, as you're suggesting. But maybe everyone's just too entrenched now. If that's the case then the people who wanted May to stay on are going to have to ask themselves whether that was for the best.
I have bet accordingly, so that I am mildly green on Bozza, green on all 10 with a couple of biggies.
So since 1965 when the Tories have elected their leaders the long term favourite hasn’t won yet.
Before I forget, has @Tissue_Price or @AndreaParma_82 or @AndyJS or @Casino_Royale or @Black_Rook or - come to think of it - you written articles? I like it when the analysts and gamblers come out to play.
Additionally we have had some articles from the pollsters, with Joe Twyman and Martin Boon announcing Deltapoll on here and a couple of others who I forget...
I also hope the sources of funding for this (and indeed all the candidates) are declared to parliament.
https://twitter.com/PeterMannionMP/status/1139131582596485120
That remains my opinion.