Mr. (Miss?) Blue, he was incompetent as Foreign Secretary. He's been proven not to do what he promises. A Heathrow resignation was promised, instead he hid in Afghanistan. When it comes to leaving the EU on 31 October will we find him in cupboard in Khartoum?
As for 'referendum-winning', he did play a role in the referendum result. So did many others. His victory there alienated most of London, which provided his earlier electoral success. His conduct since, including in office, has put off those of us with not afflicted with amnesia or blind optimism.
I'm sure he'll fight Corbyn with every fibre of his being. The problem is being incompetent. He was a failure of a Foreign Secretary. He reneged upon a promise made to the electorate.
What thing has Boris achieved? The referendum result was as much, perhaps even more so, down to Gove in the winning of it, and Farage in creating the circumstances of it being held. Boris' triumphs are shared or long past, his incompetence recent and plain to see.
Maybe I'll be wrong. I hope I am.
'Dr. Blue', strictly speaking. The sad thing is I don't disagree with the points you've made, but I think most of the other candidates would go down very badly in an early general election that now looks inevitable whoever becomes leader. Rory Stewart is perhaps the only exception, but both the party and the country are in an insufficiently sane state to appreciate him.
We Tories are in a deep, deep hole, with nothing but bad options. But if you're going to be in a fight for your life, then you bloody well need a fighter, and Boris will be that.
What makes you think Boris is a fighter? He comes across as being utterly lazy.
Does he? He has written quite a few books, and writing a book - any book, pretty much - is fecking hard work. It is a shame the site's best known auhor is no longer here to confirm that. An alternative theory is that he has a short attention span and doesn't engage with anything that doesn't interest him. There is a slight possibility that he will surprise to the upside if he thinks being PM is important enough to bother with.
Thinking about this further, it seems to me that the candidate whose underperformance is most serious is Jeremy Hunt. Given that Gove was suffering from a little local difficulty, and that Javid didn't make much impression, I'd have expected Hunt to pick up a larger chunk of the centre ground of Tory MPs. Instead a lot of those potential votes seem have gone to Boris, and probably aren't coming back. Unfortunately for Hunt, he doesn't seem particularly well placed to pick up transfers from lower-ranked candidates; those who supported Raab, Leadsom and McVey are probably going to go either for Boris or for Gove in preference to Hunt, and the pool of more centrist/moderate transfers is rather small and will be split three ways.
It seems to me, therefore, that the market may be over-estimating his chance of making the final two; we may well see Michael Gove overtake him as the rounds progress.
Thinking about this further, it seems to me that the candidate whose underperformance is most serious is Jeremy Hunt. Given that Gove was suffering from a little local difficulty, and that Javid didn't make much impression, I'd have expected Hunt to pick up a larger chunk of the centre ground of Tory MPs. Instead a lot of those potential votes seem have gone to Boris, and probably aren't coming back. Unfortunately for Hunt, he doesn't seem particularly well placed to pick up transfers from lower-ranked candidates; those who supported Raab, Leadsom and McVey are probably going to go either for Boris or for Gove in preference to Hunt, and the pool of more centrist/moderate transfers is rather small and will be split three ways.
It seems to me, therefore, that the market may be over-estimating his chance of making the final two; we may well see Michael Gove overtake him as the rounds progress.
Agree with this. I thought Hunt would be 50+.
EDIT: votes that is, not current price! But Gove surprised on the upside.
I predicted Hunt would get 45 votes which I thought was maybe a little on the low side but in fact he only got 43 which was interesting.
Amazing if true. It means he has another 25 supporters who haven't been made public on his BackBoris twitter page, which I expect will start appearing on there over the next few days.
It sounds like he’s got a pretty slick, forensic machine up and running. With clever people doing clever things. Given that he is highly likely to be our next PM, like it or not, that is at least mildly encouraging. T May surrounded herself with idiots, ideologues and lickspittles. All two of them.
Thinking about this further, it seems to me that the candidate whose underperformance is most serious is Jeremy Hunt. Given that Gove was suffering from a little local difficulty, and that Javid didn't make much impression, I'd have expected Hunt to pick up a larger chunk of the centre ground of Tory MPs. Instead a lot of those potential votes seem have gone to Boris, and probably aren't coming back. Unfortunately for Hunt, he doesn't seem particularly well placed to pick up transfers from lower-ranked candidates; those who supported Raab, Leadsom and McVey are probably going to go either for Boris or for Gove in preference to Hunt, and the pool of more centrist/moderate transfers is rather small and will be split three ways.
It seems to me, therefore, that the market may be over-estimating his chance of making the final two; we may well see Michael Gove overtake him as the rounds progress.
That’s my assessment as well.
They should both be around 15s.
Gove's winning move once he gets to the run off with Boris would be to say that Boris doesn't believe in Brexit, and was only talked into backing it by him.
I am sure there was a point in doing that in schoolboy French, but calling someone lazy when you yourself can't be arsed to put the accents in is perhaps un peu fort.
Mr. (Miss?) Blue, he was incompetent as Foreign Secretary. He's been proven not to do what he promises. A Heathrow resignation was promised, instead he hid in Afghanistan. When it comes to leaving the EU on 31 October will we find him in cupboard in Khartoum?
As for 'referendum-winning', he did play a role in the referendum result. So did many others. His victory there alienated most of London, which provided his earlier electoral success. His conduct since, including in office, has put off those of us with not afflicted with amnesia or blind optimism.
I'm sure he'll fight Corbyn with every fibre of his being. The problem is being incompetent. He was a failure of a Foreign Secretary. He reneged upon a promise made to the electorate.
What thing has Boris achieved? The referendum result was as much, perhaps even more so, down to Gove in the winning of it, and Farage in creating the circumstances of it being held. Boris' triumphs are shared or long past, his incompetence recent and plain to see.
Maybe I'll be wrong. I hope I am.
'Dr. Blue', strictly speaking. The sad thing is I don't disagree with the points you've made, but I think most of the other candidates would go down very badly in an early general election that now looks inevitable whoever becomes leader. Rory Stewart is perhaps the only exception, but both the party and the country are in an insufficiently sane state to appreciate him.
We Tories are in a deep, deep hole, with nothing but bad options. But if you're going to be in a fight for your life, then you bloody well need a fighter, and Boris will be that.
What makes you think Boris is a fighter? He comes across as being utterly lazy.
Does he? He has written quite a few books, and writing a book - any book, pretty much - is fecking hard work. It is a shame the site's best known auhor is no longer here to confirm that. An alternative theory is that he has a short attention span and doesn't engage with anything that doesn't interest him. There is a slight possibility that he will surprise to the upside if he thinks being PM is important enough to bother with.
That's a good point.
Despite that, he still comes across to me as being lazy. Johnson has a natural and wonderful ability to string sentences together, and has able researchers. That makes writing a book easier - especially if writing is something you love.
But his time as London Mayor or as FS. He was neither particularly competent or energetic. Or even on top of his brief.
Thinking about this further, it seems to me that the candidate whose underperformance is most serious is Jeremy Hunt. Given that Gove was suffering from a little local difficulty, and that Javid didn't make much impression, I'd have expected Hunt to pick up a larger chunk of the centre ground of Tory MPs. Instead a lot of those potential votes seem have gone to Boris, and probably aren't coming back. Unfortunately for Hunt, he doesn't seem particularly well placed to pick up transfers from lower-ranked candidates; those who supported Raab, Leadsom and McVey are probably going to go either for Boris or for Gove in preference to Hunt, and the pool of more centrist/moderate transfers is rather small and will be split three ways.
It seems to me, therefore, that the market may be over-estimating his chance of making the final two; we may well see Michael Gove overtake him as the rounds progress.
If it comes down to Gove Vs Boris next week will Boris be able to buy Michael and Sarah off by offering them Number 11 Downing St?
Boris Johnson is regarded as a joke, not just by many in the UK, but in many governments around the world. Embassies to the Court of St James will have sent in their regular reports to their national governments, along with background reports of the notable figures in the UK. The leaders of all the different nations know precisely the few strengths and the many weaknesses of our wanna be new Churchill and how to deal with him. Bozo as PM is just going to enhance the UK's reputation for stupidity and incompetence.
Investigating historical child abuse is a waste of money . Just another of the comments he has made .
What was the context of that comment?
If it was in relation to the supposed Westminster peado ring then history has shown him to be right given the accuser is currently on trial for being a fantasist who made it all up...
Given Theresa May has virtually bankrupted the party I'd not be surprised...
.. and the country with her zero-carbon-by-2050 idea.
What a stupid comment.
Why is that a stupid comment? Plausible estimates suggest a cost in the order of trillions. As with so much of this climate stuff, the cure currently proposed will do far more damage than the disease.
Please do some reading about the science.
I have. A lot. Probably more than 99.9% of the population, and at least 70% of posters here.
The science essentially says that there is probably an effect from atmospheric co2, the size of which is exceptionally difficult to predict, and which involves a load of feedback mechanisms we don't really understand, and as we've currently only one earth to experiment with has proved really difficult to model.
This is not the level of certainly one requires to impose trillions of pounds of costs on our society, especially in a context where doing so unilaterally is of no global significance at all.
"probably an effect from atmospheric CO2": wrong. There is an effect, there's really no debate about this so whatever you have been reading it hasn't been science. "difficult to predict": yes, there's a fair amount of uncertainty, but unfortunately it's mostly on the downside, so a really poor argument for not taking action.
"The UK is, reportedly, already resorting to the use of "creative accounting" as it attempts to meet its current obligation of reducing emissions by 80 per cent by 2050. However, that hasn't stopped the government considering an even bolder promise: net zero.
This will have no meaningful impact on temperatures because the UK is responsible for just one per cent of global emissions. If it eradicated its entire emissions forever, global temperatures in 2100 would be affected by less than 0.014°C. Yet while the benefits of reaching net zero are negligible, the cost of delivering this pledge would be massive."
I haven't checked the figures, but even if correct, this has nothing to do with the science, it's only saying "if other people are destroying the environment we should too" which is again a shit argument in my opinion.
Despite that, he still comes across to me as being lazy. Johnson has a natural and wonderful ability to string sentences together, and has able researchers. That makes writing a book easier - especially if writing is something you love.
But his time as London Mayor or as FS. He was neither particularly competent or energetic. Or even on top of his brief.
There is the famous story of how he writes his £250k a year column, which was revealed when the Daily Telegraph editor asked why he kept emailing them in from different email addresses every week (and please stop doing it).
Apparently, he turns up somebodies house for Sunday lunch, and while dinner is being prepped he bangs out his column on their computer in an hour or so.
He is clearly a talented writer, but that doesn't mean he isn't also ill prepared / lazy.
Thinking about this further, it seems to me that the candidate whose underperformance is most serious is Jeremy Hunt. Given that Gove was suffering from a little local difficulty, and that Javid didn't make much impression, I'd have expected Hunt to pick up a larger chunk of the centre ground of Tory MPs. Instead a lot of those potential votes seem have gone to Boris, and probably aren't coming back. Unfortunately for Hunt, he doesn't seem particularly well placed to pick up transfers from lower-ranked candidates; those who supported Raab, Leadsom and McVey are probably going to go either for Boris or for Gove in preference to Hunt, and the pool of more centrist/moderate transfers is rather small and will be split three ways.
It seems to me, therefore, that the market may be over-estimating his chance of making the final two; we may well see Michael Gove overtake him as the rounds progress.
If it comes down to Gove Vs Boris next week will Boris be able to buy Michael and Sarah off by offering them Number 11 Downing St?
Given Michael wasn't keen on Boris's proposed largesse to those some would see as already comfortably off I am not sure that will happen.
Thinking about this further, it seems to me that the candidate whose underperformance is most serious is Jeremy Hunt. Given that Gove was suffering from a little local difficulty, and that Javid didn't make much impression, I'd have expected Hunt to pick up a larger chunk of the centre ground of Tory MPs. Instead a lot of those potential votes seem have gone to Boris, and probably aren't coming back. Unfortunately for Hunt, he doesn't seem particularly well placed to pick up transfers from lower-ranked candidates; those who supported Raab, Leadsom and McVey are probably going to go either for Boris or for Gove in preference to Hunt, and the pool of more centrist/moderate transfers is rather small and will be split three ways.
It seems to me, therefore, that the market may be over-estimating his chance of making the final two; we may well see Michael Gove overtake him as the rounds progress.
Agree with this. I thought Hunt would be 50+.
EDIT: votes that is, not current price! But Gove surprised on the upside.
I predicted Hunt would get 45 votes which I thought was maybe a little on the low side but in fact he only got 43 which was interesting.
Amazing if true. It means he has another 25 supporters who haven't been made public on his BackBoris twitter page, which I expect will start appearing on there over the next few days.
It sounds like he’s got a pretty slick, forensic machine up and running. With clever people doing clever things. Given that he is highly likely to be our next PM, like it or not, that is at least mildly encouraging. T May surrounded herself with idiots, ideologues and lickspittles. All two of them.
Yes, but as I suggested below, it’s unlikely Lynton Crosby would be prepared to run the government for him, even if his skill set were to extend that far.
Incidentally I watched Boris’s launch speech last night. After all the wild critiques on Twitter I had expected a dull, mirthless, wooden, performance, something painful to view.
It was quite the opposite. Passionate, articulate, sometimes flowery, sometimes boastful, yet generally sensible. Sure it lacked a classic gag in the Boris mould, but this was not a time for blatant jokes.
That said, he got in some subtle digs and trolls, which I am not sure any other politician would dare to do, or even be smart enough to do
First, When asked about those opinions on burqas, he said ‘the public don’t want politicians real opinions to be muffled, or, if I might say so, veiled’
Second, when asked about his alleged cocaine use, he talked about the public not wanting to focus on this trivia, ‘so let’s just blow this nonsense away’. Blow? I thought it was possibly a coincidence but it wasn’t. You see a tiny twinkle as does it.
Third. He used the word syzygy. Correctly. Surely a first in a leadership race!
I don’t like Boris. I think he is too chaotic, and narcissistic, and his morals ARE highly questionable, and that matters. Personally I’d go for Rory.
But Boris is clever, cunning, punchy and ruthless - and yet also very flexible. These aren’t bad attributes to have, in a leader, as we take on Brexit. And at least he will watchable. Unlike Mrs May.
Now Sam is out, all remainers should be backing Rory.
He's got no chance - remainers would be better off backing a more pragmatic approach of Gove or Hunt.
Alternatively, Gove is Johnson without the charisma, and Hunt is a nobody, so neither have any chance in the member vote and they might as well at least pick someone who offers something completely different.
There is the famous story of how he writes his £250k a year column, which was revealed when the Daily Telegraph editor asked why he kept emailing them in from different email addresses every week (and please stop doing it).
Apparently, he turns up somebodies house for Sunday lunch, and while dinner is being prepped he bangs out his column on their computer in an hour or so.
He is clearly a talented writer, but that doesn't mean he isn't also ill prepared / lazy.
Undelayed by fact-checking, consistency, deliberation, principles, etc.
Thinking about this further, it seems to me that the candidate whose underperformance is most serious is Jeremy Hunt. Given that Gove was suffering from a little local difficulty, and that Javid didn't make much impression, I'd have expected Hunt to pick up a larger chunk of the centre ground of Tory MPs. Instead a lot of those potential votes seem have gone to Boris, and probably aren't coming back. Unfortunately for Hunt, he doesn't seem particularly well placed to pick up transfers from lower-ranked candidates; those who supported Raab, Leadsom and McVey are probably going to go either for Boris or for Gove in preference to Hunt, and the pool of more centrist/moderate transfers is rather small and will be split three ways.
It seems to me, therefore, that the market may be over-estimating his chance of making the final two; we may well see Michael Gove overtake him as the rounds progress.
If it comes down to Gove Vs Boris next week will Boris be able to buy Michael and Sarah off by offering them Number 11 Downing St?
He should advise them the dustbin awaits the pair of them. Worth him being PM to have him crap all over Gove.
Regarding Bozo's book writing, I read his book on Churchill, and it was at a time before I "went off" him. Even then I found it poorly written with an odd device (the Churchill Factor referencing the title) that is only referred to at a certain juncture in the book, as though he suddenly decided to put it in and then forgot about it. The book has little structure or cohesion ( a bit like the man himself) and I would guess, is probably not all his own work. At risk of giving him more royalties, read it for yourselves, as it probably gives insights into the man who may well be PM. He obviously wants to be seen as Churchill, like so many British politicians, but fails badly on all fronts.
There is the famous story of how he writes his £250k a year column, which was revealed when the Daily Telegraph editor asked why he kept emailing them in from different email addresses every week (and please stop doing it).
Apparently, he turns up somebodies house for Sunday lunch, and while dinner is being prepped he bangs out his column on their computer in an hour or so.
He is clearly a talented writer, but that doesn't mean he isn't also ill prepared / lazy.
Undelayed by fact-checking, consistency, deliberation, principles, etc.
It appears to be a prerequisite for a job as a columnist for the newspapers.
I haven't checked the figures, but even if correct, this has nothing to do with the science, it's only saying "if other people are destroying the environment we should too" which is again a shit argument in my opinion.
It will only work if other countries do it. If the UK ceased to exist overnight (calm yourself, William) the inexorable rise of CO2 will continue unabated.
When you have a majority of 3 (along with your slightly less than completely reliable friends in the DUP) pretty much everyone is important.
But we are, thankfully, in the final days of his Chancellorship. Its not that he did much wrong but he did very little right. A dull accountant with no imagination. And his failure to prepare for significantly possible outcomes for Brexit was unforgivable.
Stop putting me in the same category as Philip Hammond.
Thinking about this further, it seems to me that the candidate whose underperformance is most serious is Jeremy Hunt. Given that Gove was suffering from a little local difficulty, and that Javid didn't make much impression, I'd have expected Hunt to pick up a larger chunk of the centre ground of Tory MPs. Instead a lot of those potential votes seem have gone to Boris, and probably aren't coming back. Unfortunately for Hunt, he doesn't seem particularly well placed to pick up transfers from lower-ranked candidates; those who supported Raab, Leadsom and McVey are probably going to go either for Boris or for Gove in preference to Hunt, and the pool of more centrist/moderate transfers is rather small and will be split three ways.
It seems to me, therefore, that the market may be over-estimating his chance of making the final two; we may well see Michael Gove overtake him as the rounds progress.
That’s my assessment as well.
They should both be around 15s.
Gove's winning move once he gets to the run off with Boris would be to say that Boris doesn't believe in Brexit, and was only talked into backing it by him.
Perhaps, but Gove could also tie his own shoelaces together and fall flat on his face if he doesn’t keep his own behaviour and personality in check.
Boris Johnson is regarded as a joke, not just by many in the UK, but in many governments around the world. Embassies to the Court of St James will have sent in their regular reports to their national governments, along with background reports of the notable figures in the UK. The leaders of all the different nations know precisely the few strengths and the many weaknesses of our wanna be new Churchill and how to deal with him. Bozo as PM is just going to enhance the UK's reputation for stupidity and incompetence.
Perhaps you could advise which senior diplomats you regularly meet so that we can get a sense of your insider status. Personally, I’d go with you read The Guardian and just pass on their opinions on an unattributed basis.
Incidentally I watched Boris’s launch speech last night. After all the wild critiques on Twitter I had expected a dull, mirthless, wooden, performance, something painful to view.
It was quite the opposite. Passionate, articulate, sometimes flowery, sometimes boastful, yet generally sensible. Sure it lacked a classic gag in the Boris mould, but this was not a time for blatant jokes.
That said, he got in some subtle digs and trolls, which I am not sure any other politician would dare to do, or even be smart enough to do
First, When asked about those opinions on burqas, he said ‘the public don’t want politicians real opinions to be muffled, or, if I might say so, veiled’
Second, when asked about his alleged cocaine use, he talked about the public not wanting to focus on this trivia, ‘so let’s just blow this nonsense away’. Blow? I thought it was possibly a coincidence but it wasn’t. You see a tiny twinkle as does it.
Third. He used the word syzygy. Correctly. Surely a first in a leadership race!
I don’t like Boris. I think he is too chaotic, and narcissistic, and his morals ARE highly questionable, and that matters. Personally I’d go for Rory.
But Boris is clever, cunning, punchy and ruthless - and yet also very flexible. These aren’t bad attributes to have, in a leader, as we take on Brexit. And at least he will watchable. Unlike Mrs May.
Now Sam is out, all remainers should be backing Rory.
He's got no chance - remainers would be better off backing a more pragmatic approach of Gove or Hunt.
Alternatively, Gove is Johnson without the charisma, and Hunt is a nobody, so neither have any chance in the member vote and they might as well at least pick someone who offers something completely different.
Hunt is the only one who really has any understanding of business. So not a nobody at all. He won't win though because so many retired Tories are very happy to "fuck business".
Investigating historical child abuse is a waste of money . Just another of the comments he has made .
What was the context of that comment?
If it was in relation to the supposed Westminster peado ring then history has shown him to be right given the accuser is currently on trial for being a fantasist who made it all up...
It was in general . So also includes recent cases which have resulted in convictions such as the football coach .
Boris Johnson is regarded as a joke, not just by many in the UK, but in many governments around the world. Embassies to the Court of St James will have sent in their regular reports to their national governments, along with background reports of the notable figures in the UK. The leaders of all the different nations know precisely the few strengths and the many weaknesses of our wanna be new Churchill and how to deal with him. Bozo as PM is just going to enhance the UK's reputation for stupidity and incompetence.
Perhaps you could advise which senior diplomats you regularly meet so that we can get a sense of your insider status. Personally, I’d go with you read The Guardian and just pass on their opinions on an unattributed basis.
Bozo is definitely seen as a joke by all the international business people I have spoken to, so I can well imagine the diplomats will think the same. But hey, Brexit has already made us an international laughing stock. Let's go the whole hog and have Coco the Clown for PM! It will be a lesson in humility for us.
In the opinions of some. Yes. But 1. They are a fairly small hardcore. 2. Does it matter, maybe we need a nasty bastard to take on Barnier et al, 3. This sort of dehumanizing language will possibly shift support TO Boris.
He is a narcissist. A liar. An over-confident, under-prepared lump of privilege. A lazy rich boy who has thrown his cards in with the Bannonites.
Exactly what we do not need, I would say.
What was it in his performance as foreign secretary that makes you think he deserves a crack at anything other than his next floozy?
We need someone who can beat Labour, who are currently being run by a bunch of clowns and communists. Compared to that, I couldn't care less about Boris' personal foibles.
He won't beat Labour.
Ignore what the polls say - things will be different once he is PM and has a record in office. Ignore also what he did in 2008 or 2012 - that was a long time ago politically and Boris is a different politician from what he was then (and he was up against Ken Livingstone who, by 2012, was quite tainted).
His record in office is weak. His record as a manager is mixed at best. His ability to pull a party of different factions and traditions together is unproven. His record as a negotiator is poor. His ability to say offensive things without thinking is well-established.
Not unlike 2017, there is a real risk that Corbyn could get away with a lot less scrutiny than he deserves just because a Boris government gives the media so much entertainment - albeit from the Tory point of view, of the wrong sort.
Investigating historical child abuse is a waste of money . Just another of the comments he has made .
What was the context of that comment?
If it was in relation to the supposed Westminster peado ring then history has shown him to be right given the accuser is currently on trial for being a fantasist who made it all up...
It was in general . So also includes recent cases which have resulted in convictions such as the football coach .
And in connection to the ongoing, huge judge led inquiry into child sex abuse covering all manner of institutions, both in the public and private sector.
Regarding Bozo's book writing, I read his book on Churchill, and it was at a time before I "went off" him. Even then I found it poorly written with an odd device (the Churchill Factor referencing the title) that is only referred to at a certain juncture in the book, as though he suddenly decided to put it in and then forgot about it. The book has little structure or cohesion ( a bit like the man himself) and I would guess, is probably not all his own work. At risk of giving him more royalties, read it for yourselves, as it probably gives insights into the man who may well be PM. He obviously wants to be seen as Churchill, like so many British politicians, but fails badly on all fronts.
If every PM is disqualified who has written a bad book (either pre or post being PM) there will be a lot of red cards. Even Gladstone may not make the cut, Disraeli certainly won't, Churchill is a doubtful, Brown/Blair? Enough said. (Hands up all those holding their breath waiting for 'The Theresa May Years' by T May.)
Rory Stewart writes wonderful books. This probably disqualifies him on its own.
Despite that, he still comes across to me as being lazy. Johnson has a natural and wonderful ability to string sentences together, and has able researchers. That makes writing a book easier - especially if writing is something you love.
But his time as London Mayor or as FS. He was neither particularly competent or energetic. Or even on top of his brief.
There is the famous story of how he writes his £250k a year column, which was revealed when the Daily Telegraph editor asked why he kept emailing them in from different email addresses every week (and please stop doing it).
Apparently, he turns up somebodies house for Sunday lunch, and while dinner is being prepped he bangs out his column on their computer in an hour or so.
He is clearly a talented writer, but that doesn't mean he isn't also ill prepared / lazy.
Writers in general are best left untroubled by power or responsibility.
In the opinions of some. Yes. But 1. They are a fairly small hardcore. 2. Does it matter, maybe we need a nasty bastard to take on Barnier et al, 3. This sort of dehumanizing language will possibly shift support TO Boris.
He is a narcissist. A liar. An over-confident, under-prepared lump of privilege. A lazy rich boy who has thrown his cards in with the Bannonites.
Exactly what we do not need, I would say.
What was it in his performance as foreign secretary that makes you think he deserves a crack at anything other than his next floozy?
We need someone who can beat Labour, who are currently being run by a bunch of clowns and communists. Compared to that, I couldn't care less about Boris' personal foibles.
He won't beat Labour.
Ignore what the polls say - things will be different once he is PM and has a record in office. Ignore also what he did in 2008 or 2012 - that was a long time ago politically and Boris is a different politician from what he was then (and he was up against Ken Livingstone who, by 2012, was quite tainted).
His record in office is weak. His record as a manager is mixed at best. His ability to pull a party of different factions and traditions together is unproven. His record as a negotiator is poor. His ability to say offensive things without thinking is well-established.
Not unlike 2017, there is a real risk that Corbyn could get away with a lot less scrutiny than he deserves just because a Boris government gives the media so much entertainment - albeit from the Tory point of view, of the wrong sort.
All possibly true. And maybe Boris knows it. Which means he goes for a new general election at the start of his brief honeymoon? Giving him 5 years (if he wins, and I think he would) to sort out Brexit. And the aftermath.
A 2019 win would also have the advantage of seeing Corbyn into retirement. No way a defeated jezz lasts in office until 2024.
In the opinions of some. Yes. But 1. They are a fairly small hardcore. 2. Does it matter, maybe we need a nasty bastard to take on Barnier et al, 3. This sort of dehumanizing language will possibly shift support TO Boris.
He is a narcissist. A liar. An over-confident, under-prepared lump of privilege. A lazy rich boy who has thrown his cards in with the Bannonites.
Exactly what we do not need, I would say.
What was it in his performance as foreign secretary that makes you think he deserves a crack at anything other than his next floozy?
We need someone who can beat Labour, who are currently being run by a bunch of clowns and communists. Compared to that, I couldn't care less about Boris' personal foibles.
He won't beat Labour.
Ignore what the polls say - things will be different once he is PM and has a record in office. Ignore also what he did in 2008 or 2012 - that was a long time ago politically and Boris is a different politician from what he was then (and he was up against Ken Livingstone who, by 2012, was quite tainted).
His record in office is weak. His record as a manager is mixed at best. His ability to pull a party of different factions and traditions together is unproven. His record as a negotiator is poor. His ability to say offensive things without thinking is well-established.
Not unlike 2017, there is a real risk that Corbyn could get away with a lot less scrutiny than he deserves just because a Boris government gives the media so much entertainment - albeit from the Tory point of view, of the wrong sort.
All possibly true. And maybe Boris knows it. Which means he goes for a new general election at the start of his brief honeymoon? Giving him 5 years (if he wins, and I think he would) to sort out Brexit. And the aftermath.
A 2019 win would also have the advantage of seeing Corbyn into retirement. No way a defeated jezz lasts in office until 2024.
Regarding Bozo's book writing, I read his book on Churchill, and it was at a time before I "went off" him. Even then I found it poorly written with an odd device (the Churchill Factor referencing the title) that is only referred to at a certain juncture in the book, as though he suddenly decided to put it in and then forgot about it. The book has little structure or cohesion ( a bit like the man himself) and I would guess, is probably not all his own work. At risk of giving him more royalties, read it for yourselves, as it probably gives insights into the man who may well be PM. He obviously wants to be seen as Churchill, like so many British politicians, but fails badly on all fronts.
If every PM is disqualified who has written a bad book (either pre or post being PM) there will be a lot of red cards. Even Gladstone may not make the cut, Disraeli certainly won't, Churchill is a doubtful, Brown/Blair? Enough said. (Hands up all those holding their breath waiting for 'The Theresa May Years' by T May.)
Rory Stewart writes wonderful books. This probably disqualifies him on its own.
Fair enough, but his book writing was being offered up as evidence of him not being as lazy as people think. I was probably not succinct enough to say that his writing style further reinforced his shambolic and rather lazy style. I think there are much stronger reasons why he should not be PM though!
Regarding Bozo's book writing, I read his book on Churchill, and it was at a time before I "went off" him. Even then I found it poorly written with an odd device (the Churchill Factor referencing the title) that is only referred to at a certain juncture in the book, as though he suddenly decided to put it in and then forgot about it. The book has little structure or cohesion ( a bit like the man himself) and I would guess, is probably not all his own work. At risk of giving him more royalties, read it for yourselves, as it probably gives insights into the man who may well be PM. He obviously wants to be seen as Churchill, like so many British politicians, but fails badly on all fronts.
If every PM is disqualified who has written a bad book (either pre or post being PM) there will be a lot of red cards. Even Gladstone may not make the cut, Disraeli certainly won't, Churchill is a doubtful, Brown/Blair? Enough said. (Hands up all those holding their breath waiting for 'The Theresa May Years' by T May.)
Rory Stewart writes wonderful books. This probably disqualifies him on its own.
Disraeli's novels might not be great literature, but they remain readable nearly two centuries on. Amusingly, the hero of his first novel, Coningsby, was an Etonian.
Regarding Bozo's book writing, I read his book on Churchill, and it was at a time before I "went off" him. Even then I found it poorly written with an odd device (the Churchill Factor referencing the title) that is only referred to at a certain juncture in the book, as though he suddenly decided to put it in and then forgot about it. The book has little structure or cohesion ( a bit like the man himself) and I would guess, is probably not all his own work. At risk of giving him more royalties, read it for yourselves, as it probably gives insights into the man who may well be PM. He obviously wants to be seen as Churchill, like so many British politicians, but fails badly on all fronts.
If every PM is disqualified who has written a bad book (either pre or post being PM) there will be a lot of red cards. Even Gladstone may not make the cut, Disraeli certainly won't, Churchill is a doubtful, Brown/Blair? Enough said. (Hands up all those holding their breath waiting for 'The Theresa May Years' by T May.)
Rory Stewart writes wonderful books. This probably disqualifies him on its own.
Fair enough, but his book writing was being offered up as evidence of him not being as lazy as people think. I was probably not succinct enough to say that his writing style further reinforced his shambolic and rather lazy style. I think there are much stronger reasons why he should not be PM though!
Pathologically short attention span is probably more accurate than plain lazy. PM is not a job for someone who gets bored easily.
They are all highly ambitious, have big egos and these are febrile times, so normal rules don't apply.
They are also playing for 2nd place: to get onto that final ballot of members. Therefore the current margins between Hunt and Stewart are tight.
However, ideally the following three should now withdraw:
Hancock Javid Raab
None of them has any chance.
Why not Rory Stewart? Because he's undeniably different, had a brilliant launch, has a huge twitter impression rate (2million), has trajectory and was second only to Boris in the ConHome poll of members. He has a compelling case for staying in.
In the opinions of some. Yes. But 1. They are a fairly small hardcore. 2. Does it matter, maybe we need a nasty bastard to take on Barnier et al, 3. This sort of dehumanizing language will possibly shift support TO Boris.
He is a narcissist. A liar. An over-confident, under-prepared lump of privilege. A lazy rich boy who has thrown his cards in with the Bannonites.
Exactly what we do not need, I would say.
What was it in his performance as foreign secretary that makes you think he deserves a crack at anything other than his next floozy?
We need someone who can beat Labour, who are currently being run by a bunch of clowns and communists. Compared to that, I couldn't care less about Boris' personal foibles.
He won't beat Labour.
Ignore what the polls say - things will be different once he is PM and has a record in office. Ignore also what he did in 2008 or 2012 - that was a long time ago politically and Boris is a different politician from what he was then (and he was up against Ken Livingstone who, by 2012, was quite tainted).
His record in office is weak. His record as a manager is mixed at best. His ability to pull a party of different factions and traditions together is unproven. His record as a negotiator is poor. His ability to say offensive things without thinking is well-established.
Not unlike 2017, there is a real risk that Corbyn could get away with a lot less scrutiny than he deserves just because a Boris government gives the media so much entertainment - albeit from the Tory point of view, of the wrong sort.
All possibly true. And maybe Boris knows it. Which means he goes for a new general election at the start of his brief honeymoon? Giving him 5 years (if he wins, and I think he would) to sort out Brexit. And the aftermath.
A 2019 win would also have the advantage of seeing Corbyn into retirement. No way a defeated jezz lasts in office until 2024.
The only spoke in that scenario is the Brexit Party. There seems to be little love lost between Farage and BoJo. They may well take enough votes away from the Tories to leave us with another hung parliament.
When you have a majority of 3 (along with your slightly less than completely reliable friends in the DUP) pretty much everyone is important.
But we are, thankfully, in the final days of his Chancellorship. Its not that he did much wrong but he did very little right. A dull accountant with no imagination. And his failure to prepare for significantly possible outcomes for Brexit was unforgivable.
Stop putting me in the same category as Philip Hammond.
Ignore what the polls say - things will be different once he is PM and has a record in office. Ignore also what he did in 2008 or 2012 - that was a long time ago politically and Boris is a different politician from what he was then (and he was up against Ken Livingstone who, by 2012, was quite tainted).
His record in office is weak. His record as a manager is mixed at best. His ability to pull a party of different factions and traditions together is unproven. His record as a negotiator is poor. His ability to say offensive things without thinking is well-established.
Not unlike 2017, there is a real risk that Corbyn could get away with a lot less scrutiny than he deserves just because a Boris government gives the media so much entertainment - albeit from the Tory point of view, of the wrong sort.
And if it's a snap election to break the Brexit impasse Labour will be offering the referendum with option to Remain. I think that wins in a polarizing contest against No Deal.
That said, I am scared of Johnson. His appeal to the shallow and the apolitical is strong. That is many millions of the electorate. I don't think he can pull off a GE win on a Hard Brexit platform but if anyone can he can.
Ignore what the polls say - things will be different once he is PM and has a record in office. Ignore also what he did in 2008 or 2012 - that was a long time ago politically and Boris is a different politician from what he was then (and he was up against Ken Livingstone who, by 2012, was quite tainted).
His record in office is weak. His record as a manager is mixed at best. His ability to pull a party of different factions and traditions together is unproven. His record as a negotiator is poor. His ability to say offensive things without thinking is well-established.
Not unlike 2017, there is a real risk that Corbyn could get away with a lot less scrutiny than he deserves just because a Boris government gives the media so much entertainment - albeit from the Tory point of view, of the wrong sort.
And if it's a snap election to break the Brexit impasse Labour will be offering the referendum with option to Remain. I think that wins in a polarizing contest against No Deal.
That said, I am scared of Johnson. His appeal to the shallow and the apolitical is strong. That is many millions of the electorate. I don't think he can pull off a GE win on a Hard Brexit platform but if anyone can he can.
Also, Corbyn won’t offer a referendum. He might hint at it, at most. But no more than that. The Remain vote will be split. Boris wins.
The father of the house, who supported Rory Stewart in the leadership vote today, said that Johnson muddles through, often forgetting what he believes in from one day to the next.
'He doesn’t have any policies, certainly none that are consistent from day to day in the way he puts them. I don’t actually think he knows what he would do to get us out of the Brexit crisis. He doesn’t always say the same thing, partly because he doesn’t always remember what he said the day before. He tends to work day to day and just get his way through it - he’s not a man who’s interested in detail.'
We're all in deep shit … What I don't understand is what happened to the notion that while the members were lunatics the MPs could be relied on to take a sane view of the candidates? Rory is manifestly the best candidate, and the only one who actually has a chance of delivering Brexit - and yet he managed only 19 votes.
Ignore what the polls say - things will be different once he is PM and has a record in office. Ignore also what he did in 2008 or 2012 - that was a long time ago politically and Boris is a different politician from what he was then (and he was up against Ken Livingstone who, by 2012, was quite tainted).
His record in office is weak. His record as a manager is mixed at best. His ability to pull a party of different factions and traditions together is unproven. His record as a negotiator is poor. His ability to say offensive things without thinking is well-established.
Not unlike 2017, there is a real risk that Corbyn could get away with a lot less scrutiny than he deserves just because a Boris government gives the media so much entertainment - albeit from the Tory point of view, of the wrong sort.
And if it's a snap election to break the Brexit impasse Labour will be offering the referendum with option to Remain. I think that wins in a polarizing contest against No Deal.
That said, I am scared of Johnson. His appeal to the shallow and the apolitical is strong. That is many millions of the electorate. I don't think he can pull off a GE win on a Hard Brexit platform but if anyone can he can.
Also, Corbyn won’t offer a referendum. He might hint at it, at most. But no more than that. The Remain vote will be split. Boris wins.
I haven't checked the figures, but even if correct, this has nothing to do with the science, it's only saying "if other people are destroying the environment we should too" which is again a shit argument in my opinion.
It will only work if other countries do it. If the UK ceased to exist overnight (calm yourself, William) the inexorable rise of CO2 will continue unabated.
The father of the house, who supported Rory Stewart in the leadership vote today, said that Johnson muddles through, often forgetting what he believes in from one day to the next.
'He doesn’t have any policies, certainly none that are consistent from day to day in the way he puts them. I don’t actually think he knows what he would do to get us out of the Brexit crisis. He doesn’t always say the same thing, partly because he doesn’t always remember what he said the day before. He tends to work day to day and just get his way through it - he’s not a man who’s interested in detail.'
We're all in deep shit … What I don't understand is what happened to the notion that while the members were lunatics the MPs could be relied on to take a sane view of the candidates? Rory is manifestly the best candidate, and the only one who actually has a chance of delivering Brexit - and yet he managed only 19 votes.
Pathologically short attention span sounds about right, then.
With regard to the ConservativeHome monthly surveys - is this sample representative of the whole membership?
I recall Mike Smithson saying a while ago that these syrveys cannot entirely be relied upon as a true guide?
No. Users of the site volunteer to take the survey, and there is now a basic check to make sure they are members. But it is self-selected, and all the evidence is that ConHome readers aren't a representative sample. All the more remarkable that Rory came second.
The father of the house, who supported Rory Stewart in the leadership vote today, said that Johnson muddles through, often forgetting what he believes in from one day to the next.
'He doesn’t have any policies, certainly none that are consistent from day to day in the way he puts them. I don’t actually think he knows what he would do to get us out of the Brexit crisis. He doesn’t always say the same thing, partly because he doesn’t always remember what he said the day before. He tends to work day to day and just get his way through it - he’s not a man who’s interested in detail.'
We're all in deep shit … What I don't understand is what happened to the notion that while the members were lunatics the MPs could be relied on to take a sane view of the candidates? Rory is manifestly the best candidate, and the only one who actually has a chance of delivering Brexit - and yet he managed only 19 votes.
How many leadership elections did Clarke lose? He even lost to IDS FFS. You really would have thought he would have got the hang of them by now.
They are all highly ambitious, have big egos and these are febrile times, so normal rules don't apply.
They are also playing for 2nd place: to get onto that final ballot of members. Therefore the current margins between Hunt and Stewart are tight.
However, ideally the following three should now withdraw:
Hancock Javid Raab
None of them has any chance.
Why not Rory Stewart? Because he's undeniably different, had a brilliant launch, has a huge twitter impression rate (2million), has trajectory and was second only to Boris in the ConHome poll of members. He has a compelling case for staying in.
So ideally Tuesday 'should' be:
Boris v Hunt v Gove v Rory
It's possible that one of Hancock or Javid will decide that they are unlikely to make the cut in the next vote and now is the best time to trade their influence for a big job under another candidate.
Unfortunately, before the first round Hunt would have been the obvious non-Johnson choice for such a manoeuvre, but his second place is weak.
So I'm not expecting any withdrawals and for all three of Javid, Hancock and Stewart to fall short in the next round.
Ignore what the polls say - things will be different once he is PM and has a record in office. Ignore also what he did in 2008 or 2012 - that was a long time ago politically and Boris is a different politician from what he was then (and he was up against Ken Livingstone who, by 2012, was quite tainted).
His record in office is weak. His record as a manager is mixed at best. His ability to pull a party of different factions and traditions together is unproven. His record as a negotiator is poor. His ability to say offensive things without thinking is well-established.
Not unlike 2017, there is a real risk that Corbyn could get away with a lot less scrutiny than he deserves just because a Boris government gives the media so much entertainment - albeit from the Tory point of view, of the wrong sort.
And if it's a snap election to break the Brexit impasse Labour will be offering the referendum with option to Remain. I think that wins in a polarizing contest against No Deal.
That said, I am scared of Johnson. His appeal to the shallow and the apolitical is strong. That is many millions of the electorate. I don't think he can pull off a GE win on a Hard Brexit platform but if anyone can he can.
Also, Corbyn won’t offer a referendum. He might hint at it, at most. But no more than that. The Remain vote will be split. Boris wins.
As a fellow remainer, who will you be voting for?
I’m not a member of any party. So I don’t have a vote. If there were a GE, I’d vote tactically for anyone best placed to stop Corbyn’s Labour.
Also, Corbyn won’t offer a referendum. He might hint at it, at most. But no more than that. The Remain vote will be split. Boris wins.
I know a lot of people think that. But I am close to being certain that he will.
Reason? What you have just said. If the Tories run on Hard Brexit with populist Johnson that brings the Farage votes back. Leaves Labour with no chance unless they sweep the Remain vote - which requires the referendum with Remain commitment to be clearly made.
So - the GE is a culture war binary Leave Remain affair and IMO the Labour side just shades it. But that last bit I am decidedly NOT close to certain of. Not even close to close to certain
Ignore what the polls say - things will be different once he is PM and has a record in office. Ignore also what he did in 2008 or 2012 - that was a long time ago politically and Boris is a different politician from what he was then (and he was up against Ken Livingstone who, by 2012, was quite tainted).
His record in office is weak. His record as a manager is mixed at best. His ability to pull a party of different factions and traditions together is unproven. His record as a negotiator is poor. His ability to say offensive things without thinking is well-established.
Not unlike 2017, there is a real risk that Corbyn could get away with a lot less scrutiny than he deserves just because a Boris government gives the media so much entertainment - albeit from the Tory point of view, of the wrong sort.
And if it's a snap election to break the Brexit impasse Labour will be offering the referendum with option to Remain. I think that wins in a polarizing contest against No Deal.
That said, I am scared of Johnson. His appeal to the shallow and the apolitical is strong. That is many millions of the electorate. I don't think he can pull off a GE win on a Hard Brexit platform but if anyone can he can.
Also, Corbyn won’t offer a referendum. He might hint at it, at most. But no more than that. The Remain vote will be split. Boris wins.
As a fellow remainer, who will you be voting for?
I’m not a member of any party. So I don’t have a vote. If there were a GE, I’d vote tactically for anyone best placed to stop Corbyn’s Labour.
The father of the house, who supported Rory Stewart in the leadership vote today, said that Johnson muddles through, often forgetting what he believes in from one day to the next.
'He doesn’t have any policies, certainly none that are consistent from day to day in the way he puts them. I don’t actually think he knows what he would do to get us out of the Brexit crisis. He doesn’t always say the same thing, partly because he doesn’t always remember what he said the day before. He tends to work day to day and just get his way through it - he’s not a man who’s interested in detail.'
We're all in deep shit … What I don't understand is what happened to the notion that while the members were lunatics the MPs could be relied on to take a sane view of the candidates? Rory is manifestly the best candidate, and the only one who actually has a chance of delivering Brexit - and yet he managed only 19 votes.
How many leadership elections did Clarke lose? He even lost to IDS FFS. You really would have thought he would have got the hang of them by now.
Yes, if the world was the way I would like it Clarke would be right, and Clarke would have been PM for many years. It isn't. Such evidence as there is shows that Rory would lose and Boris win a GE. Furthermore though I support TM's deal the Commons didn't and won't under Rory - who offers more of the same.
'Time for a change' is an arresting slogan. Rory changes style from TM, but not contents. Boris it will be.
Also, Corbyn won’t offer a referendum. He might hint at it, at most. But no more than that. The Remain vote will be split. Boris wins.
I know a lot of people think that. But I am close to being certain that he will.
Reason? What you have just said. If the Tories run on Hard Brexit with populist Johnson that brings the Farage votes back. Leaves Labour with no chance unless they sweep the Remain vote - which requires the referendum with Remain commitment to be clearly made.
So - the GE is a culture war binary Leave Remain affair and IMO the Labour side just shades it. But that last bit I am decidedly NOT close to certain of. Not even close to close to certain
That almost certainly leads to yet another hung Parliament. At least 70, probably nearer 80, non Labour or Tories, and that is without the LDs.
I haven't checked the figures, but even if correct, this has nothing to do with the science, it's only saying "if other people are destroying the environment we should too" which is again a shit argument in my opinion.
It will only work if other countries do it. If the UK ceased to exist overnight (calm yourself, William) the inexorable rise of CO2 will continue unabated.
Someone has to make the first move, though.
With my pragmatist hat on I am all for us doing all the things that are sensible for us to do anyway. So developing domestic renewable energy supplies and reducing the amount of energy we import is a no brainer provided that the cost does not make our manufacturers uneconomic. Insulating housing, putting solar panels on new build, encouraging people to replace inefficient boilers, building flood defences and more efficient infrastructure, planting a lot more trees so we don't import timber, import substitution generally, there are lots and lots of no brainers.
If we can develop technologies that make plastics more readily recyclable, improve carbon capture (as the new plan seems to assume) that is good too as is infrastructure like super fast broadband so fewer meetings involve travelling.
But we don't want to put ourselves at a significant trading disadvantage discouraging industry in this country. Claiming successes whilst most of our metal bashing went to the far east is not a win for us or the planet (since we have higher environmental standards). There is plenty to be getting on with without doing anything silly.
Also, Corbyn won’t offer a referendum. He might hint at it, at most. But no more than that. The Remain vote will be split. Boris wins.
I know a lot of people think that. But I am close to being certain that he will.
Reason? What you have just said. If the Tories run on Hard Brexit with populist Johnson that brings the Farage votes back. Leaves Labour with no chance unless they sweep the Remain vote - which requires the referendum with Remain commitment to be clearly made.
So - the GE is a culture war binary Leave Remain affair and IMO the Labour side just shades it. But that last bit I am decidedly NOT close to certain of. Not even close to close to certain
I think you are right - Labour would offer a Referendum in a pre-Brexit GE. Corbyn is no lover of the EU but the threat of a LD/Green mop-up of the Remainer vote is too much for him to risk. I think he cares about having the power to implement his domestic policies, more than he cares about Brexit.
Also, Corbyn won’t offer a referendum. He might hint at it, at most. But no more than that. The Remain vote will be split. Boris wins.
I know a lot of people think that. But I am close to being certain that he will.
Reason? What you have just said. If the Tories run on Hard Brexit with populist Johnson that brings the Farage votes back. Leaves Labour with no chance unless they sweep the Remain vote - which requires the referendum with Remain commitment to be clearly made.
So - the GE is a culture war binary Leave Remain affair and IMO the Labour side just shades it. But that last bit I am decidedly NOT close to certain of. Not even close to close to certain
I think you are right - Labour would offer a Referendum in a pre-Brexit GE. Corbyn is no lover of the EU but the threat of a LD/Green mop-up of the Remainer vote is too much for him to risk. I think he cares about having the power to implement his domestic policies, more than he cares about Brexit.
the problem is people just don't trust corbyn any more, so the vote would still be split. he should stand down if he wants labour to have a chance.
With regard to the ConservativeHome monthly surveys - is this sample representative of the whole membership?
I recall Mike Smithson saying a while ago that these syrveys cannot entirely be relied upon as a true guide?
No. Users of the site volunteer to take the survey, and there is now a basic check to make sure they are members. But it is self-selected, and all the evidence is that ConHome readers aren't a representative sample. All the more remarkable that Rory came second.
Trust me, it's not far wrong!
Boris would start with a hefty lead, if the vote were tomorrow.
We're all in deep shit … What I don't understand is what happened to the notion that while the members were lunatics the MPs could be relied on to take a sane view of the candidates? Rory is manifestly the best candidate, and the only one who actually has a chance of delivering Brexit - and yet he managed only 19 votes.
The members are more level-headed than the MP's are.
With regard to the ConservativeHome monthly surveys - is this sample representative of the whole membership?
I recall Mike Smithson saying a while ago that these syrveys cannot entirely be relied upon as a true guide?
No. Users of the site volunteer to take the survey, and there is now a basic check to make sure they are members. But it is self-selected, and all the evidence is that ConHome readers aren't a representative sample. All the more remarkable that Rory came second.
Trust me, it's not far wrong!
Boris would start with a hefty lead, if the vote were tomorrow.
For sure, but then any sample of Tory members would show the same, representative or not. Nevertheless ConHome has been way more out there in terms of no deal since the beginning, contrary to proper polls of Tory voters and members. Only HY thinks that the ConHome surveys are accurate.
Also, Corbyn won’t offer a referendum. He might hint at it, at most. But no more than that. The Remain vote will be split. Boris wins.
I know a lot of people think that. But I am close to being certain that he will.
Reason? What you have just said. If the Tories run on Hard Brexit with populist Johnson that brings the Farage votes back. Leaves Labour with no chance unless they sweep the Remain vote - which requires the referendum with Remain commitment to be clearly made.
So - the GE is a culture war binary Leave Remain affair and IMO the Labour side just shades it. But that last bit I am decidedly NOT close to certain of. Not even close to close to certain
I think you are right - Labour would offer a Referendum in a pre-Brexit GE. Corbyn is no lover of the EU but the threat of a LD/Green mop-up of the Remainer vote is too much for him to risk. I think he cares about having the power to implement his domestic policies, more than he cares about Brexit.
the problem is people just don't trust corbyn any more, so the vote would still be split. he should stand down if he wants labour to have a chance.
Corbyn and Labour would have a chance if they switched, even at this late stage, but under any other plausible Leader they would be likely to clean up. Most supporters could name half a dozen such Plausibles without difficulty. This is why their problems, though substantial, are significantly less than the Tory Party's.
We're all in deep shit … What I don't understand is what happened to the notion that while the members were lunatics the MPs could be relied on to take a sane view of the candidates? Rory is manifestly the best candidate, and the only one who actually has a chance of delivering Brexit - and yet he managed only 19 votes.
The members are more level-headed than the MP's are.
A trio of interesting local by-elections today. In South Kesteven there is a re-run election because in May there was only one candidate for two seats. Technically it is a Lincolnshire Independent defence. In Broxtowe a candidate died and now there are two Conservative defences. It was formally a Lib Dem stronghold but was lost due to a split - which is now removed. Finally an Independent death in North Devon - but no Independent candidate this time. A Lib Dem gain would give them control of the council.
Also, Corbyn won’t offer a referendum. He might hint at it, at most. But no more than that. The Remain vote will be split. Boris wins.
I know a lot of people think that. But I am close to being certain that he will.
Reason? What you have just said. If the Tories run on Hard Brexit with populist Johnson that brings the Farage votes back. Leaves Labour with no chance unless they sweep the Remain vote - which requires the referendum with Remain commitment to be clearly made.
So - the GE is a culture war binary Leave Remain affair and IMO the Labour side just shades it. But that last bit I am decidedly NOT close to certain of. Not even close to close to certain
I think you are right - Labour would offer a Referendum in a pre-Brexit GE. Corbyn is no lover of the EU but the threat of a LD/Green mop-up of the Remainer vote is too much for him to risk. I think he cares about having the power to implement his domestic policies, more than he cares about Brexit.
the problem is people just don't trust corbyn any more, so the vote would still be split. he should stand down if he wants labour to have a chance.
Despite that, he still comes across to me as being lazy. Johnson has a natural and wonderful ability to string sentences together, and has able researchers. That makes writing a book easier - especially if writing is something you love.
But his time as London Mayor or as FS. He was neither particularly competent or energetic. Or even on top of his brief.
There is the famous story of how he writes his £250k a year column, which was revealed when the Daily Telegraph editor asked why he kept emailing them in from different email addresses every week (and please stop doing it).
Apparently, he turns up somebodies house for Sunday lunch, and while dinner is being prepped he bangs out his column on their computer in an hour or so.
He is clearly a talented writer, but that doesn't mean he isn't also ill prepared / lazy.
Johnson is a very one dimensional writer. His great talent is to write the same piece over and over again, and get paid well for doing so. That is undeniably a very good skill for a journalist to have. I am not sure it makes him PM material.
The father of the house, who supported Rory Stewart in the leadership vote today, said that Johnson muddles through, often forgetting what he believes in from one day to the next.
'He doesn’t have any policies, certainly none that are consistent from day to day in the way he puts them. I don’t actually think he knows what he would do to get us out of the Brexit crisis. He doesn’t always say the same thing, partly because he doesn’t always remember what he said the day before. He tends to work day to day and just get his way through it - he’s not a man who’s interested in detail.'
We're all in deep shit … What I don't understand is what happened to the notion that while the members were lunatics the MPs could be relied on to take a sane view of the candidates? Rory is manifestly the best candidate, and the only one who actually has a chance of delivering Brexit - and yet he managed only 19 votes.
How many leadership elections did Clarke lose? He even lost to IDS FFS. You really would have thought he would have got the hang of them by now.
Is that his fault, or the voters? Why on earth would anyone vote for IDS over Clarke?
We're all in deep shit … What I don't understand is what happened to the notion that while the members were lunatics the MPs could be relied on to take a sane view of the candidates? Rory is manifestly the best candidate, and the only one who actually has a chance of delivering Brexit - and yet he managed only 19 votes.
The members are more level-headed than the MP's are.
It would be nice to think so. Are you sure, Sean?
Having seen the MP's in action, I'm fairly certain.
A trio of interesting local by-elections today. In South Kesteven there is a re-run election because in May there was only one candidate for two seats. Technically it is a Lincolnshire Independent defence. In Broxtowe a candidate died and now there are two Conservative defences. It was formally a Lib Dem stronghold but was lost due to a split - which is now removed. Finally an Independent death in North Devon - but no Independent candidate this time. A Lib Dem gain would give them control of the council.
The LibDems could pull off a win in Devon. The Lincs Indys are well organised and I'd expect a hold. In Broxtowe whether the LibDems can make a comeback will be interesting in view of rumours that even Soubry is now sniffing round the LDs.
Despite that, he still comes across to me as being lazy. Johnson has a natural and wonderful ability to string sentences together, and has able researchers. That makes writing a book easier - especially if writing is something you love.
But his time as London Mayor or as FS. He was neither particularly competent or energetic. Or even on top of his brief.
There is the famous story of how he writes his £250k a year column, which was revealed when the Daily Telegraph editor asked why he kept emailing them in from different email addresses every week (and please stop doing it).
Apparently, he turns up somebodies house for Sunday lunch, and while dinner is being prepped he bangs out his column on their computer in an hour or so.
He is clearly a talented writer, but that doesn't mean he isn't also ill prepared / lazy.
Johnson is a very one dimensional writer. His great talent is to write the same piece over and over again, and get paid well for doing so. That is undeniably a very good skill for a journalist to have. I am not sure it makes him PM material.
Not even journalism really. Comment or even polemic. His stunts at actual journalism as in, you know, listening to people and writing down what they say accurately as quotes and all that, got into one or two difficulties I believe.
With regard to the ConservativeHome monthly surveys - is this sample representative of the whole membership?
I recall Mike Smithson saying a while ago that these syrveys cannot entirely be relied upon as a true guide?
No. Users of the site volunteer to take the survey, and there is now a basic check to make sure they are members. But it is self-selected, and all the evidence is that ConHome readers aren't a representative sample. All the more remarkable that Rory came second.
Trust me, it's not far wrong!
Boris would start with a hefty lead, if the vote were tomorrow.
For sure, but then any sample of Tory members would show the same, representative or not. Nevertheless ConHome has been way more out there in terms of no deal since the beginning, contrary to proper polls of Tory voters and members. Only HY thinks that the ConHome surveys are accurate.
I mean, their surveys of Cosnervative VOTERS are way off because so few voters go to ConHome.
But a good number of MEMBERS go to that dark place. It's not trashcan territory.
With regard to the ConservativeHome monthly surveys - is this sample representative of the whole membership?
I recall Mike Smithson saying a while ago that these syrveys cannot entirely be relied upon as a true guide?
No. Users of the site volunteer to take the survey, and there is now a basic check to make sure they are members. But it is self-selected, and all the evidence is that ConHome readers aren't a representative sample. All the more remarkable that Rory came second.
Trust me, it's not far wrong!
Boris would start with a hefty lead, if the vote were tomorrow.
For sure, but then any sample of Tory members would show the same, representative or not. Nevertheless ConHome has been way more out there in terms of no deal since the beginning, contrary to proper polls of Tory voters and members. Only HY thinks that the ConHome surveys are accurate.
Just looked at the Conservative Home site. Most of the comments re: carbon neutral by 2050 are incredibly depressing. These dinosaurs deserve to be extinct but shouldn't take the rest of us plus their children and grandchildren with them. Trouble is they will likely be replaced by Farage's lot who are no better.
Despite that, he still comes across to me as being lazy. Johnson has a natural and wonderful ability to string sentences together, and has able researchers. That makes writing a book easier - especially if writing is something you love.
But his time as London Mayor or as FS. He was neither particularly competent or energetic. Or even on top of his brief.
There is the famous story of how he writes his £250k a year column, which was revealed when the Daily Telegraph editor asked why he kept emailing them in from different email addresses every week (and please stop doing it).
Apparently, he turns up somebodies house for Sunday lunch, and while dinner is being prepped he bangs out his column on their computer in an hour or so.
He is clearly a talented writer, but that doesn't mean he isn't also ill prepared / lazy.
Johnson is a very one dimensional writer. His great talent is to write the same piece over and over again, and get paid well for doing so. That is undeniably a very good skill for a journalist to have. I am not sure it makes him PM material.
I understood that his talent extended at least to writing two different pieces?
The father of the house, who supported Rory Stewart in the leadership vote today, said that Johnson muddles through, often forgetting what he believes in from one day to the next.
'He doesn’t have any policies, certainly none that are consistent from day to day in the way he puts them. I don’t actually think he knows what he would do to get us out of the Brexit crisis. He doesn’t always say the same thing, partly because he doesn’t always remember what he said the day before. He tends to work day to day and just get his way through it - he’s not a man who’s interested in detail.'
We're all in deep shit … What I don't understand is what happened to the notion that while the members were lunatics the MPs could be relied on to take a sane view of the candidates? Rory is manifestly the best candidate, and the only one who actually has a chance of delivering Brexit - and yet he managed only 19 votes.
How many leadership elections did Clarke lose? He even lost to IDS FFS. You really would have thought he would have got the hang of them by now.
Is that his fault, or the voters? Why on earth would anyone vote for IDS over Clarke?
I think that the only possible answer to that is 42.
With regard to the ConservativeHome monthly surveys - is this sample representative of the whole membership?
I recall Mike Smithson saying a while ago that these syrveys cannot entirely be relied upon as a true guide?
No. Users of the site volunteer to take the survey, and there is now a basic check to make sure they are members. But it is self-selected, and all the evidence is that ConHome readers aren't a representative sample. All the more remarkable that Rory came second.
Trust me, it's not far wrong!
Boris would start with a hefty lead, if the vote were tomorrow.
For sure, but then any sample of Tory members would show the same, representative or not. Nevertheless ConHome has been way more out there in terms of no deal since the beginning, contrary to proper polls of Tory voters and members. Only HY thinks that the ConHome surveys are accurate.
Just looked at the Conservative Home site. Most of the comments re: carbon neutral by 2050 are incredibly depressing. These dinosaurs deserve to be extinct but shouldn't take the rest of us plus their children and grandchildren with them. Trouble is they will likely be replaced by Farage's lot who are no better.
With regard to the ConservativeHome monthly surveys - is this sample representative of the whole membership?
I recall Mike Smithson saying a while ago that these syrveys cannot entirely be relied upon as a true guide?
No. Users of the site volunteer to take the survey, and there is now a basic check to make sure they are members. But it is self-selected, and all the evidence is that ConHome readers aren't a representative sample. All the more remarkable that Rory came second.
Trust me, it's not far wrong!
Boris would start with a hefty lead, if the vote were tomorrow.
For sure, but then any sample of Tory members would show the same, representative or not. Nevertheless ConHome has been way more out there in terms of no deal since the beginning, contrary to proper polls of Tory voters and members. Only HY thinks that the ConHome surveys are accurate.
Just looked at the Conservative Home site. Most of the comments re: carbon neutral by 2050 are incredibly depressing. These dinosaurs deserve to be extinct but shouldn't take the rest of us plus their children and grandchildren with them. Trouble is they will likely be replaced by Farage's lot who are no better.
The good news is, we're making pretty good progress, government help or not.
Comments
They should both be around 15s.
Are you OK with American spelling?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-48579887
Despite that, he still comes across to me as being lazy. Johnson has a natural and wonderful ability to string sentences together, and has able researchers. That makes writing a book easier - especially if writing is something you love.
But his time as London Mayor or as FS. He was neither particularly competent or energetic. Or even on top of his brief.
Mr. T, I think it means they aren't contesting the actual decision but perhaps are angling for a rule change.
Investigating historical child abuse is a waste of money . Just another of the comments he has made .
Opposition parties have so much to use against him they’re spoilt for choice .
If it was in relation to the supposed Westminster peado ring then history has shown him to be right given the accuser is currently on trial for being a fantasist who made it all up...
Apparently, he turns up somebodies house for Sunday lunch, and while dinner is being prepped he bangs out his column on their computer in an hour or so.
He is clearly a talented writer, but that doesn't mean he isn't also ill prepared / lazy.
Ignore what the polls say - things will be different once he is PM and has a record in office. Ignore also what he did in 2008 or 2012 - that was a long time ago politically and Boris is a different politician from what he was then (and he was up against Ken Livingstone who, by 2012, was quite tainted).
His record in office is weak. His record as a manager is mixed at best. His ability to pull a party of different factions and traditions together is unproven. His record as a negotiator is poor. His ability to say offensive things without thinking is well-established.
Not unlike 2017, there is a real risk that Corbyn could get away with a lot less scrutiny than he deserves just because a Boris government gives the media so much entertainment - albeit from the Tory point of view, of the wrong sort.
Rory Stewart writes wonderful books. This probably disqualifies him
on its own.
A 2019 win would also have the advantage of seeing Corbyn into retirement. No way a defeated jezz lasts in office until 2024.
Thank f*** Leadsom went out, that was more nerve racking than it needed to be.
https://twitter.com/rorystewartuk/status/1139154284610801664?s=21
Amusingly, the hero of his first novel, Coningsby, was an Etonian.
PM is not a job for someone who gets bored easily.
They are all highly ambitious, have big egos and these are febrile times, so normal rules don't apply.
They are also playing for 2nd place: to get onto that final ballot of members. Therefore the current margins between Hunt and Stewart are tight.
However, ideally the following three should now withdraw:
Hancock
Javid
Raab
None of them has any chance.
Why not Rory Stewart? Because he's undeniably different, had a brilliant launch, has a huge twitter impression rate (2million), has trajectory and was second only to Boris in the ConHome poll of members. He has a compelling case for staying in.
So ideally Tuesday 'should' be:
Boris v Hunt v Gove v Rory
That said, I am scared of Johnson. His appeal to the shallow and the apolitical is strong. That is many millions of the electorate. I don't think he can pull off a GE win on a Hard Brexit platform but if anyone can he can.
The father of the house, who supported Rory Stewart in the leadership vote today, said that Johnson muddles through, often forgetting what he believes in from one day to the next.
'He doesn’t have any policies, certainly none that are consistent from day to day in the way he puts them. I don’t actually think he knows what he would do to get us out of the Brexit crisis.
He doesn’t always say the same thing, partly because he doesn’t always remember what he said the day before.
He tends to work day to day and just get his way through it - he’s not a man who’s interested in detail.'
We're all in deep shit … What I don't understand is what happened to the notion that while the members were lunatics the MPs could be relied on to take a sane view of the candidates? Rory is manifestly the best candidate, and the only one who actually has a chance of delivering Brexit - and yet he managed only 19 votes.
I recall Mike Smithson saying a while ago that these syrveys cannot entirely be relied upon as a true guide?
Unfortunately, before the first round Hunt would have been the obvious non-Johnson choice for such a manoeuvre, but his second place is weak.
So I'm not expecting any withdrawals and for all three of Javid, Hancock and Stewart to fall short in the next round.
Reason? What you have just said. If the Tories run on Hard Brexit with populist Johnson that brings the Farage votes back. Leaves Labour with no chance unless they sweep the Remain vote - which requires the referendum with Remain commitment to be clearly made.
So - the GE is a culture war binary Leave Remain affair and IMO the Labour side just shades it. But that last bit I am decidedly NOT close to certain of. Not even close to close to certain
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/448330-warren-rises-to-second-in-california-poll
Yes, if the world was the way I would like it Clarke would be right, and Clarke would have been PM for many years. It isn't. Such evidence as there is shows that Rory would lose and Boris win a GE. Furthermore though I support TM's deal the Commons didn't and won't under Rory - who offers more of the same.
'Time for a change' is an arresting slogan. Rory changes style from TM, but not contents. Boris it will be.
If we can develop technologies that make plastics more readily recyclable, improve carbon capture (as the new plan seems to assume) that is good too as is infrastructure like super fast broadband so fewer meetings involve travelling.
But we don't want to put ourselves at a significant trading disadvantage discouraging industry in this country. Claiming successes whilst most of our metal bashing went to the far east is not a win for us or the planet (since we have higher environmental standards). There is plenty to be getting on with without doing anything silly.
Boris would start with a hefty lead, if the vote were tomorrow.
But a good number of MEMBERS go to that dark place. It's not trashcan territory.
Trouble is they will likely be replaced by Farage's lot who are no better.