politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So which ones will survive the first vote?
Comments
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Weird that Gove remains so much longer than Hunt, he's right on his shoulder for MPs backing.0
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Beth Rigby - Team Boris plan is to keep him away from the airwaves (public).
I seemed to remember a similar approach for a previous leader, it didn't turn out well.0 -
The only way Rory's result can be considered good is if Hunt's result is considered to be catastrophic. I think that might be right.JackW said:Thoughts :
Boris - Excellent result
Hunt - Poor
Gove - Better than expected
Raab - Poor
Sajid - Disappointing
Hancock - Disappointing
Rory - Good
The Rest - Over and out0 -
Esther offering her full support to whoever wins the race to be PM0
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So - who's ego will require them to carry on, even though it is obvious they should pull out now?0
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Yep. I’m above water by £232 on all candidates now and £432 ahead on Boris.viewcode said:
Congratulations on your profit of (thinks for a minute) £260-odd quid?Casino_Royale said:Cha-ching.
That Leadsom price will go down as one of the weirdest anomalies in British political betting history.0 -
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So will Boris.....AndyJS said:Raab will fancy his chances of picking up most of the McVey and Leadsom votes.
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Rory Stewart should be 100/1 now, yet on BF he's barely moved from the 30s he's been on for ages. Impressive to survive, but unlikely to make it to the next round. I guess he has the debates now to work some magic - and he does have a distinct style and offering so maybe the debate will do him some good.0
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The banter heuristic suggest the last 2 should be BoZo and Gove.
Gove pulls out denying the membership a vote.
When BoZo fucks up, probably the next day, the membership revolt...0 -
A Gove v Johnson runoff looks more likely than it did a couple of days ago.0
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This will be a coronation. In some ways it may be better if so. Keeps Boris from making more undeliverable promises to the membership, perhaps gets him in place before summer to have a settling in period before the now inevitable autumn election. Rory is the only one who would want to force it to the members even with no hope of winning and he won't last another round.0
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Where does Rory Stewart pick up votes from the three that have dropped out?
Same for Hancock.
Both will probably get fewer votes in second round - mostly to Hunt.
Small increase for Boris
Of the rest is anybody's guess0 -
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Mind bleach requiredAlistair said:
Ruth Davidson was a highly profitable lay briefly as well.AlastairMeeks said:
Laying Jacob Rees-Mogg was a goldmine.Stereotomy said:
More generally, has the "lay the leader" strategy actually proven profitable? With so many contenders, all on such low numbers, it's seemed rather risky.Sandpit said:
Lots of PB humble pie!isam said:How will those who constantly advised us lay Boris at 5/1 and bigger over the last two years apologise to @HYUFD for the snarky comments they threw at him when he begged to differ? Even if he were to lose from here, the current equity on the bets must be horrific
I guess that @HYUFD would join @AndyJS on the list of people who I’ll buy beers for if ever we meet in real life. (for very different reasons).
I guess anyone who always laid whoever it was who was ahead then traded out of that position once somebody else took over was probably scraping in a small amount for a long time, but did that make up for eventually being stuck in a red Boris position?0 -
Sky got Chris Grayling extolling Boris. Dear me0
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I’m waiting for the story of the Leadsom backer to come out now...0
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I wonder what the results would have been without ComRes.1
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Oh god, Grayling is part of Boris campaign team, so that means he will be back in government with a leading role.0
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Almost as good as mine (which tweaked yours)OblitusSumMe said:
Looking forward to your prediction for the next round.AndyJS said:How was my prediction? (Innocent face).
. We both underestimated Boris, and I thought Sajid would do better.
Gove and Hunt need to do a deal.0 -
That would still allow through the cyborgs.AlastairMeeks said:
Far too liberal. They should be obliged to produce a DNA sample to prove that they are human.NickPalmer said:
I think all MPs should have to produce a passport and a utility bill before being allowed to vote...Casino_Royale said:
My view is the secret ballot act needs amending.OblitusSumMe said:Wow. Johnson asking for proof of votes.
My wife often wonders about the lack of secrecy of the ballot. Really not good instinct from Johnson's team.0 -
Game over. Boris Johnson PM unless an almighty scandal breaks very soon.
Come on you almighty scandal!0 -
So nearly 200 Con MPs don’t back Boris.
Hope for Hunt and Gove yet..0 -
Johnson needs someone around to make him look competent.FrancisUrquhart said:Oh god, Grayling is part of Boris campaign team, so that means he will be back in government with a leading role.
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One of the weirdest betting markets ever.Casino_Royale said:Leadsom already at 600!
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Rory fabulous on Politics Live. He is absolutely right about the deal being the deal take it or leave it. Problem is that Tory members either don't believe this or don't care.0
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Have you read any news stories about her and her immediate family?Casino_Royale said:I’m waiting for the story of the Leadsom backer to come out now...
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Sky just said that Boris has not offered Grayling anything so if true good on BorisFrancisUrquhart said:Oh god, Grayling is part of Boris campaign team, so that means he will be back in government with a leading role.
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Hancock and Javed should team up with Hancock being a potential Chancellor for potential PM Javedargyllrs said:Where does Rory Stewart pick up votes from the three that have dropped out?
Same for Hancock.
Both will probably get fewer votes in second round - mostly to Hunt.
Small increase for Boris
Of the rest is anybody's guess0 -
It's not nearly enoughGarethoftheVale2 said:
Hancock and Javed should team up with Hancock being a potential Chancellor for potential PM Javedargyllrs said:Where does Rory Stewart pick up votes from the three that have dropped out?
Same for Hancock.
Both will probably get fewer votes in second round - mostly to Hunt.
Small increase for Boris
Of the rest is anybody's guess0 -
Isn't any sort of scandal kinda of factored in, a bit like Jezza being a terrorist sympathizing anti-semite enabler?kinabalu said:Game over. Boris Johnson PM unless an almighty scandal breaks very soon.
Come on you almighty scandal!
We know he has had multiple affairs, love child, drugs, bullingdon, said all sorts of offensive things etc etc etc.0 -
Certainly helped me reduce my exposure on Boris, even though I thought she’d make the next round. Laying Rory at 30 also feels safe.Casino_Royale said:
Yep. I’m above water by £232 on all candidates now and £432 ahead on Boris.viewcode said:
Congratulations on your profit of (thinks for a minute) £260-odd quid?Casino_Royale said:Cha-ching.
That Leadsom price will go down as one of the weirdest anomalies in British political betting history.0 -
How does his strategy differ from May's, exactly?RochdalePioneers said:Rory fabulous on Politics Live. He is absolutely right about the deal being the deal take it or leave it. Problem is that Tory members either don't believe this or don't care.
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The danger for Boris is that he starts losing votes in further rounds to people like Rory Stewart.0
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Shouldn't that be "start the farce and appoint Boris now" ?Scott_P said:0 -
It doesn't, he just hopes he can convince the ERG that the deal isn't changing where she couldn't.Stereotomy said:
How does his strategy differ from May's, exactly?RochdalePioneers said:Rory fabulous on Politics Live. He is absolutely right about the deal being the deal take it or leave it. Problem is that Tory members either don't believe this or don't care.
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Sadly so.FrancisUrquhart said:
Isn't any sort of scandal kinda of factored in, a bit like Jezza being a terrorist sympathizing anti-semite enabler?kinabalu said:Game over. Boris Johnson PM unless an almighty scandal breaks very soon.
Come on you almighty scandal!
We know he has had multiple affairs, love child, drugs, bullingdon, said all sorts of offensive things etc etc etc.
The real scandal is the millions wasted in London on futile vanity projects. But Tory members don’t seem to care.0 -
At this stage, of course he would say that. Coming out and saying I have been promised x looks terrible (and corrupt).Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sky just said that Boris has not offered Grayling anything so if true good on BorisFrancisUrquhart said:Oh god, Grayling is part of Boris campaign team, so that means he will be back in government with a leading role.
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This one believes it and always has. Watch Boris get a couple of tweaks and pass itRochdalePioneers said:Rory fabulous on Politics Live. He is absolutely right about the deal being the deal take it or leave it. Problem is that Tory members either don't believe this or don't care.
And I voted Rory in conhome poll0 -
Why, it's AV? One of them will probably make it to the final 2 anyway. If they do a deal one of them definitely will, but the one who drops out gives up their shot.NickPalmer said:
Almost as good as mine (which tweaked yours)OblitusSumMe said:
Looking forward to your prediction for the next round.AndyJS said:How was my prediction? (Innocent face).
. We both underestimated Boris, and I thought Sajid would do better.
Gove and Hunt need to do a deal.0 -
I’m not laying him further at current odds until I’ve done a bit more thinking.IanB2 said:
Certainly helped me reduce my exposure on Boris, even though I thought she’d make the next round. Laying Rory at 30 also feels safe.Casino_Royale said:
Yep. I’m above water by £232 on all candidates now and £432 ahead on Boris.viewcode said:
Congratulations on your profit of (thinks for a minute) £260-odd quid?Casino_Royale said:Cha-ching.
That Leadsom price will go down as one of the weirdest anomalies in British political betting history.0 -
How many rounds do you think there will be?AndyJS said:The danger for Boris is that he starts losing votes in further rounds to people like Rory Stewart.
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Er, I thought he was supposed be the candidate for sensible people who reject unicorns?Quincel said:
It doesn't, he just hopes he can convince the ERG that the deal isn't changing where she couldn't.Stereotomy said:
How does his strategy differ from May's, exactly?RochdalePioneers said:Rory fabulous on Politics Live. He is absolutely right about the deal being the deal take it or leave it. Problem is that Tory members either don't believe this or don't care.
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30 votes up for grabs - could change the 2nd place dynamic.
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Excellent performance on that call btw.Casino_Royale said:I’m waiting for the story of the Leadsom backer to come out now...
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Looking at the endorsements numbers on Wikipedia, Boris and Rory both got the greatest uplift from the undeclared;
Gove - 35 endorsements; 37 votes (+2)
Hancock - 17 endorsements; 20 votes (+3)
Harper - 8 endorsements; 10 votes (+2)
Hunt - 39 endorsements; 43 votes (+4)
Javid - 19 endorsements; 23 votes (+4)
Johnson - 87 endorsements; 114 votes (+27)
Leadsom - 5 endorsements; 11 votes (+6)
McVey - 6 endorsements; 9 votes (+3)
Raab - 23 endorsements; 27 votes (+4)
Stewart - 7 endorsements; 19 votes (+12)
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The difference is that Cameron was an unknown quantity and had an excellent campaign. Hunt, Gove, etc are well known to everybody.Tissue_Price said:0 -
Johnson will now divert votes to Stewart and Hancock in order to try and knock out Hunt and Gove - he can almost chose his own opponent in the final 20
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Rory will be in the C4 debate. The BBC debate is after the next ballot on Tuesday nightbrendan16 said:
Yes he is still in the race - only by 2 votes though - so is eligible for the debates prior to the next ballot.rottenborough said:
Go Rory! Does this mean he will be in TV debate?OblitusSumMe said:Strong result from Johnson. Glad to see that Stewart made the threshold.
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If I was a serial killer I would be quite insulted by that comparison. If you prick us do we not cut your throat (or something like that)?Nemtynakht said:Just looking at the pictures on BBC of all the candidates and can’t understand why they have smiling pictures of everyone except Raab who looks like a serial killer. A quick google shows plenty of photos of Raab leering happily.
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It doesn't. But it is the real world.Stereotomy said:
How does his strategy differ from May's, exactly?RochdalePioneers said:Rory fabulous on Politics Live. He is absolutely right about the deal being the deal take it or leave it. Problem is that Tory members either don't believe this or don't care.
The Deal
No Deal
No Brexit
And the other candidates (and Jezbollah!) are talking rampant bollocks about renegotiating with the EU. If we leave with a deal we leave with May's deal0 -
And would annoy all the other people Boris has made the same offer to, with careful ambiguity in every case.FrancisUrquhart said:
At this stage, of course he would say that. Coming out and saying I have been promised x looks terrible (and corrupt).Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sky just said that Boris has not offered Grayling anything so if true good on BorisFrancisUrquhart said:Oh god, Grayling is part of Boris campaign team, so that means he will be back in government with a leading role.
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Only a Black Swan will stop Boris becoming Tory leader.
That said birds do have a history of getting Boris into trouble and halting his political ambitions.
I live in Hope, well I live in Dore which is next to Hope.1 -
27 shy Boristas.....Andy_Cooke said:Looking at the endorsements numbers on Wikipedia, Boris and Rory both got the greatest uplift from the undeclared;
Gove - 35 endorsements; 37 votes (+2)
Hancock - 17 endorsements; 20 votes (+3)
Harper - 8 endorsements; 10 votes (+2)
Hunt - 39 endorsements; 43 votes (+4)
Javid - 19 endorsements; 23 votes (+4)
Johnson - 87 endorsements; 114 votes (+27)
Leadsom - 5 endorsements; 11 votes (+6)
McVey - 6 endorsements; 9 votes (+3)
Raab - 23 endorsements; 27 votes (+4)
Stewart - 7 endorsements; 19 votes (+12)
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So, next round they need 32. Raab can maybe hope to get those from the R1 dropouts. How about Stewart/Hancock/Javid? Unless one of them drops out now, they might all fail to make that 32.0
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The expectation beaters here are Johnson and Stewart. The fear for Johnson that the pledges wouldn't translate haven't happened and he's in a very strong position.
Stewart is the surprise package and, while he's still an outsider, I think he's every chance of passing the next hurdle.
Javid and Hancock just haven't got the momentum. If Stewart can see them off, there are some votes there for him.
Gove has stayed in the game, but Hunt is still better placed. Neither will be thrilled today.0 -
Raab will pick up a few from EMcV and Mother Leadsom?HYUFD said:0 -
Rory just about makes it!0
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Of the 3 candidates eliminated Harper, McVey and Leadsom, 2/3 were Leavers which could boost Boris, Raab and Gove as the remaining Leavers in the next round0
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Rudd thinks 43 is more than 20 +230
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There are a number of MPs who aren't allowed to reveal how they are voting, because they are Whips or Party Vice-Chairmen.MarqueeMark said:
27 shy Boristas.....Andy_Cooke said:Looking at the endorsements numbers on Wikipedia, Boris and Rory both got the greatest uplift from the undeclared;
Gove - 35 endorsements; 37 votes (+2)
Hancock - 17 endorsements; 20 votes (+3)
Harper - 8 endorsements; 10 votes (+2)
Hunt - 39 endorsements; 43 votes (+4)
Javid - 19 endorsements; 23 votes (+4)
Johnson - 87 endorsements; 114 votes (+27)
Leadsom - 5 endorsements; 11 votes (+6)
McVey - 6 endorsements; 9 votes (+3)
Raab - 23 endorsements; 27 votes (+4)
Stewart - 7 endorsements; 19 votes (+12)0 -
Yes and no. As we said on the other thread, there is probably enough space for some face-saving tweaks to May's WA.RochdalePioneers said:
It doesn't. But it is the real world.Stereotomy said:
How does his strategy differ from May's, exactly?RochdalePioneers said:Rory fabulous on Politics Live. He is absolutely right about the deal being the deal take it or leave it. Problem is that Tory members either don't believe this or don't care.
The Deal
No Deal
No Brexit
And the other candidates (and Jezbollah!) are talking rampant bollocks about renegotiating with the EU. If we leave with a deal we leave with May's deal0 -
And I forgot about Raab. I'd not be surprised if he drops out. His selling point was that he was the acceptable face of Johnson, but not enough bought it, frankly.SirNorfolkPassmore said:The expectation beaters here are Johnson and Stewart. The fear for Johnson that the pledges wouldn't translate haven't happened and he's in a very strong position.
Stewart is the surprise package and, while he's still an outsider, I think he's every chance of passing the next hurdle.
Javid and Hancock just haven't got the momentum. If Stewart can see them off, there are some votes there for him.
Gove has stayed in the game, but Hunt is still better placed. Neither will be thrilled today.0 -
Andrea was the effective runner-up last time.0
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Does he have enough votes to play with to do that?PeterMannion said:Johnson will now divert votes to Stewart and Hancock in order to try and knock out Hunt and Gove - he can almost chose his own opponent in the final 2
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Down to 1 party conference speech, the leader will be chosen before conference and polling showing Cameron doing better against Brown than Davis, polling already shows Boris doing better against Corbyn than any other candidateTissue_Price said:0 -
5 most likely.TheWhiteRabbit said:
How many rounds do you think there will be?AndyJS said:The danger for Boris is that he starts losing votes in further rounds to people like Rory Stewart.
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Why would he get less? Unless he starts lending votes to eliminate rivals.TGOHF said:0 -
Javid could just about pull that off. Though it would also take Boris helping (as DD did in 2005).FrancisUrquhart said:
The difference is that Cameron was an unknown quantity and had an excellent campaign. Hunt, Gove, etc are well known to everybody.Tissue_Price said:0 -
6 men and Rory to chose from.0
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Er, what? What about Labour's offer to support the deal if it either included a custom's union (a change to the PD that the EU would have accepted) or was subject to a confirmatory referendum? Why aren't those options in your list?RochdalePioneers said:
It doesn't. But it is the real world.Stereotomy said:
How does his strategy differ from May's, exactly?RochdalePioneers said:Rory fabulous on Politics Live. He is absolutely right about the deal being the deal take it or leave it. Problem is that Tory members either don't believe this or don't care.
The Deal
No Deal
No Brexit
And the other candidates (and Jezbollah!) are talking rampant bollocks about renegotiating with the EU. If we leave with a deal we leave with May's deal0 -
IIRC that was mostly down to the fact that David Davis spoke from behind a lectern whereas David Cameron paced around the stage while speaking.HYUFD said:
Down to 1 party conference speech, the leader will be chosen before conference and polling showing Cameron doing better against Brown than Davis, polling already shows Boris doing better against Corbyn than any other candidateTissue_Price said:0 -
Jesus Fucking Christ please let the Cons members have a moment of clarity and not vote for that utter, utter, knob Johnson.0
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@TheScreamingEagles are Boris and George Osborne
stillfriends?0 -
The big question is to what extent all the MPs who didn’t vote for Johnson are “not Boris” voters and will transfer their votes to anyone but him.0
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Shall I put you down as a maybe?TOPPING said:Jesus Fucking Christ please let the Cons members have a moment of clarity and not vote for that utter, utter, knob Johnson.
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Stewart would need a massive turnaround in the polling over the weekend.AndyJS said:The danger for Boris is that he starts losing votes in further rounds to people like Rory Stewart.
Will anyone commission a poll to do fieldwork after the TV debate to publish before the next round? It's a tight schedule.0 -
Andrea Leadsom going out leaves me with just Rory Stewart as a possible losing bet in this race. I'd have thought Jeremy Hunt would be Boris Johnson's preferred opponent. Not that he will be too concerned about any of them.0
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Was free money last night on Boris to top round 1 @1.080
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Hunt and Gove now look unbalanced to me, and Hunt too short.
Javid looks to have seriously underperformed and is surely out of it.
Not impossible Rory clears round 2 and takes support from Harper and Hancock to get into the low 40s before he drops out.
Boris should have 150+ votes in the tank once the dust settles as he’ll scrape a good 30+ from McVey, Leadsom and surely Raab too now.0 -
Hunt, Gove, Javid, Stewart and Hancock need to get in a room together and agree on which of them is going to be the anti Boris candidate. The sooner the better.0
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Agreed. His best angle now is to get a top job from Boris. Then ask his supporters to transfer their votes. Which could indeed result in a coronation.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
And I forgot about Raab. I'd not be surprised if he drops out. His selling point was that he was the acceptable face of Johnson, but not enough bought it, frankly.SirNorfolkPassmore said:The expectation beaters here are Johnson and Stewart. The fear for Johnson that the pledges wouldn't translate haven't happened and he's in a very strong position.
Stewart is the surprise package and, while he's still an outsider, I think he's every chance of passing the next hurdle.
Javid and Hancock just haven't got the momentum. If Stewart can see them off, there are some votes there for him.
Gove has stayed in the game, but Hunt is still better placed. Neither will be thrilled today.
Boris is PM by the end of next week?0 -
An interesting possibility - and just a possibility - is that Johnson got some votes from anti-Johnson people in this round that they can withdraw in future rounds, giving the sense of him going backwards!MarqueeMark said:
27 shy Boristas.....Andy_Cooke said:Looking at the endorsements numbers on Wikipedia, Boris and Rory both got the greatest uplift from the undeclared;
Gove - 35 endorsements; 37 votes (+2)
Hancock - 17 endorsements; 20 votes (+3)
Harper - 8 endorsements; 10 votes (+2)
Hunt - 39 endorsements; 43 votes (+4)
Javid - 19 endorsements; 23 votes (+4)
Johnson - 87 endorsements; 114 votes (+27)
Leadsom - 5 endorsements; 11 votes (+6)
McVey - 6 endorsements; 9 votes (+3)
Raab - 23 endorsements; 27 votes (+4)
Stewart - 7 endorsements; 19 votes (+12)0 -
Surprised Boris didn't lend Andrea a few votes.
Both the lady candidates going out in the first round doesn't look great for the Tories.
Can't see anything stopping Boris at this point.0 -
It is my Conservative Party membership at stake here and I've only just chuffing well renewed it.FrancisUrquhart said:
Shall I put you down as a maybe?TOPPING said:Jesus Fucking Christ please let the Cons members have a moment of clarity and not vote for that utter, utter, knob Johnson.
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