politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Get ready for the Betrayals Ahead

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/jack_sommers/status/1139088800003571712

Mysticrose said:

SouthamObserver said:

Johnson losing Uxbridge is not going to happen. It's a Leave area and there is no third party vote for Labour to squeeze, They maxed out in 2017 and Johnson still won comfortably. The one to watch is IDS. There was a very small Remain majority in Chingford and Woodford Green, there is still an LD and Green vote for Labour to tap into and the Tory vote has been in decline there since 2010. I suspect that Johnson as PM will finally cost the Quiet Man his seat.

This is a loose comment.

Whilst it's true that those of us who have seen through the magician's sleight of hand need to check our subjective wishes, your remark is loose.

There's no rationale or evidence that Labour have 'maxed out.' There's no such thing. And the assumption that because Uxbridge voted Leave it means all those voters will vote for Boris is a long way further than 'loose.'

Much will of course depend on the national picture. If PM Boris is as awful as Foreign Secretary Boris then the honeymoon will be short-lived. Like Mike Smithson and many others on here, I think Boris is fatally flawed with a deeply defective personality and he will sooner or later come a cropper. We shall see if he drags the country down with him.

The net Cons to Labour swing in Uxbridge from 2015 to 2017 exceeded national and London averages at 13%. A repeat next time puts him in a parlous state, even without the ongoing demographic changes and Brexit shambles.

What is incontrovertible is that Boris attracts a great deal of hatred. My tory voting brother who lives in London has not a single kind word to say for Boris. So alongside the incumbency pull you mention, he will also attract the opposite. I have LibDem friends who say they will vote Labour to decapitate him. I'm not sure why you suggest decapitation doesn't work when it clearly does: Chris Patten, Nick Clegg come to mind as most prominent but there are many other examples.

The other reason, though, for suggesting your post is loose is the Brexit Party. If they put up a half-decent candidate, perhaps even Farage himself, I can see Boris having a big problem.

I think Boris will lose Uxbridge.

AndyJS said:

Latest numbers:

Boris 86
Hunt 36
Gove 35
Javid 19
Hancock 16
Harper 8, Stewart 7, McVey 6, Leadsom 5

noneoftheabove said:

DavidL said:

Why do I still want Brexit?

Because I do not like the European project. I do not like more and more of our decisions being taken in an undemocratic structure by people we have no right to remove. I want my politicians to be accountable, to decide how we spend our own money, what our own priorities are. I do not approve of the gradual downgrading of the nation state. I see that as the objective of the project and the Euro as the main means of achieving this. Once national politicians are accountable for how much money is spent and what it is spent on they really are local government. I see the EZ being increasingly dominant inside the EU and pressure to join it over time. I think policy will evolve to favour the EZ bloc with its QMV to our detriment. I get it that some like our own Mr Glenn see these as a desirable end state, I don't.

For me May's deal was and is a possible solution to this. Other solutions may exist but that is the one we have and time is pressing. A trade agreement built on the bones of that WA is likely to meet my objectives, modest as they are. As I have said on here before our relationship with the EU will always continue to evolve as it has throughout our membership. None of these choices are forever, not even leaving if the British people chose to go back in years to come. But right now we chose to leave and our political class should honour that choice.

As someone who was a reluctant remainer I agree with a fair bit of that. If that was the Brexit narrative being pursued it would have been delivered. Instead Brexiteers have outdone each other to prove they are the purest and hardest and we are left with the political class pandering to the lunacies of Francois, Rees-Mogg and McVey.

All Brexiteers had to do was nudge very slightly to welcome plenty of reluctant remainers across into the fold. Instead we have been told we are citizens of nowhere and have had to listen to nonsense about trade from people who have no idea on the subject for the last 3 years. Brexit has just become a way for people to express their anger about the EU, lack of control and foreigners rather than a plan with a destination.

AndyJS said:

Latest numbers:

Boris 86
Hunt 36
Gove 35
Javid 19
Hancock 16
Harper 8, Stewart 7, McVey 6, Leadsom 5

AndyJS said:

How can Leadsom be 9 and Gove 30? Mind-boggling.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125574963

HYUFD said:

If the Tories do not commit to deliver Brexit they will be overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right it is as simple as that. No Deal Brexit would create difficulties and is certainly not as ideal a scenario as Brexit with a Deal but it would not produce the existential crisis for the Tories of failing to deliver Brexit at all

MarqueeMark said:

AndyJS said:

Latest numbers:

Boris 86
Hunt 36
Gove 35
Javid 19
Hancock 16
Harper 8, Stewart 7, McVey 6, Leadsom 5

Not much of a race, is it?

DecrepitJohnL said:

another_richard said:

isam said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

isam said:

GIN1138 said:

I'd like to see a thread header from @isam on the virtues of Brexit.

Oh and happy First Round Thursday PB

Happy to oblige!

http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.com/2014/08/mass-immigration-stealth-tax-on-working.html

Ah those terrible immigrants eh? I won't mention fascism and divisive politics of the extreme right, but it is important to mention Brexit will only affect immigration if it turns us, as seems likely, into an economic basketcase where no one wants to come anymore as there are no prospects. Even I don't believe it will be that bad. Anyway, EU immigration only made for 50% of the immigration. The rest we had/have full control of. First argument in favour of Brexit completely shot down. Still waiting for a defensible argument in favour of the madness.

If your conclusion from reading that is I think immigrants are terrible, then you are beyond repair

Given that he's a longstanding Conservative member Nigel Foremain is presumably a supporter of reducing net immigration to below 100,000 per year.

Conservative policy is surely to increase immigration while blaming those beastly Europeans (and sometimes Tony Blair). Non-EU immigration (so nothing to do with Brussels or FOM) rose under Cameron and May.

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/matt_hfoster/status/1139070741062832129

Quincel said:

I don't normally think 40/1 candidates are value lays, but why is Tulsi Gabbard persistently below 50 on Betfair for the Dem nomination? She's doing virtually nothing right, has no obvious constituency of voters, and the last 5 national polls are mostly 0%s!

geoffw said:

There being no answer to @isam's question other than suggestions that he write one shows the institutional bias of this site. Sad but true.

Gallowgate said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OT

Breaking

Sky confirm that the US navy are assisting tankers in the Gulf of Oman as crews evacuate after attacks that are rumoured to be by torpedos. Sky saying not confirmed but if so massive crisis looms as the finger is being pointed at Iran.

Oil rising and real fears for world trade

Why would Iran torpedo tankers?

Nigelb said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Amazed to see Stewart come second to Johnson in the ConservativeHome voodoo poll.

The silent significant minority.

JackW said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Harris_Tweed said:

AndyJS said:

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1138745048449896448

I happen to agree with him that it's pretty off-colour.

But from Nigel "pick up a rifle and head for the front lines" Farage, it loses its sting a little.

It was wholly unacceptable and she should face consequences

It depends what the consequences are.

If scorn is poured on her from opponents then I'm with you. If you can't take it then don't dish it out.

However if you're implying some form of formal sanction, investigation or legal action then I say no. If a citizen can't ridicule and imply comedic violence against our all too powerful politicians then we begin the slide toward a situation that should not be contemplated

I recall Kenny Everett bringing the house down when he told the Conservative conference to kick away Michael Foot's walking stick and nuke Moscow.

Be careful what you wish for.

Nigelb said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Nigelb said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Amazed to see Stewart come second to Johnson in the ConservativeHome voodoo poll.

The silent significant minority.

I am not silent. I support Rory

As ever, you are the splendid exception which proves the rule, Big_G.

Though I'm hoping you prove a trend setter.

philiph said:

HYUFD said:

If the Tories do not commit to deliver Brexit they will be overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right it is as simple as that. No Deal Brexit would create difficulties and is certainly not as ideal a scenario as Brexit with a Deal but it would not produce the existential crisis for the Tories of failing to deliver Brexit at all

Given the reputation of Boris as an untrustworthy incompetent, I suspect he may be bumbling towards what he perceives to be an achievable Brexit conclusion.

Leave with no Deal - Right of the Conservatives are happy, Nigel has to visit the vets to be neutered.

However, leaving with No Deal means that we have to implement Deals to continue trade, life and maintain good relationships etc. Doing this will cause ripples on the now satisfied right but begin to soothe the discontented Europhile wing of the electorate.

Following a No Deal strategy may be the only way to be all things to all men, given that accepting any agreement appears to be beyond the ability of parliament.

Once No Deal is done the deals become far easier to implement.

Boris is nothing if not inventive, and I suspect he is remarkably pragmatic where success and popularity are concerned as opposed to rigidly ideological.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

JackW said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Harris_Tweed said:

AndyJS said:

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1138745048449896448

I happen to agree with him that it's pretty off-colour.

But from Nigel "pick up a rifle and head for the front lines" Farage, it loses its sting a little.

It was wholly unacceptable and she should face consequences

It depends what the consequences are.

If scorn is poured on her from opponents then I'm with you. If you can't take it then don't dish it out.

However if you're implying some form of formal sanction, investigation or legal action then I say no. If a citizen can't ridicule and imply comedic violence against our all too powerful politicians then we begin the slide toward a situation that should not be contemplated

I recall Kenny Everett bringing the house down when he told the Conservative conference to kick away Michael Foot's walking stick and nuke Moscow.

Be careful what you wish for.

Inciting someone to use acid to attack someone else, comedy or otherwise, is a very serious matter and at the very least the BBC should suspend her

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/JamesDelingpole/status/1139084268590772224?s=20

philiph said:

HYUFD said:

If the Tories do not commit to deliver Brexit they will be overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right it is as simple as that. No Deal Brexit would create difficulties and is certainly not as ideal a scenario as Brexit with a Deal but it would not produce the existential crisis for the Tories of failing to deliver Brexit at all

Given the reputation of Boris as an untrustworthy incompetent, I suspect he may be bumbling towards what he perceives to be an achievable Brexit conclusion.

Leave with no Deal - Right of the Conservatives are happy, Nigel has to visit the vets to be neutered.

However, leaving with No Deal means that we have to implement Deals to continue trade, life and maintain good relationships etc. Doing this will cause ripples on the now satisfied right but begin to soothe the discontented Europhile wing of the electorate.

Following a No Deal strategy may be the only way to be all things to all men, given that accepting any agreement appears to be beyond the ability of parliament.

Once No Deal is done the deals become far easier to implement.

Boris is nothing if not inventive, and I suspect he is remarkably pragmatic where success and popularity are concerned as opposed to rigidly ideological.

HYUFD said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

HYUFD said:

If the Tories do not commit to deliver Brexit they will be overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right it is as simple as that. No Deal Brexit would create difficulties and is certainly not as ideal a scenario as Brexit with a Deal but it would not produce the existential crisis for the Tories of failing to deliver Brexit at all

Probably we will leave on something like Theresa May's terms but tweaked so everyone can save face. A far longer transition period before the dreaded backstop, perhaps to allow technological solutions, and removal of May's red lines round FOM. It gives all three sides cover.

I suspect the Withdrawal Agreement tweaked may still be the final destination

TheScreamingEagles said:

geoffw said:

There being no answer to @isam's question other than suggestions that he write one shows the institutional bias of this site. Sad but true.

Except we’ve done so, unless you think Richard Tyndall is a Remainer.

Richard Tyndall has written a couple of headers on Leaving/what to do next.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/26/richard-tyndall-on-the-exit-strategy/

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/29/richard-tyndall-on-laying-the-groundwork-for-an-out-vote/

MarqueeMark said:

AndyJS said:

Latest numbers:

Boris 86
Hunt 36
Gove 35
Javid 19
Hancock 16
Harper 8, Stewart 7, McVey 6, Leadsom 5

Not much of a race, is it?

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

HYUFD said:

If the Tories do not commit to deliver Brexit they will be overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right it is as simple as that. No Deal Brexit would create difficulties and is certainly not as ideal a scenario as Brexit with a Deal but it would not produce the existential crisis for the Tories of failing to deliver Brexit at all

Probably we will leave on something like Theresa May's terms but tweaked so everyone can save face. A far longer transition period before the dreaded backstop, perhaps to allow technological solutions, and removal of May's red lines round FOM. It gives all three sides cover.

I suspect the Withdrawal Agreement tweaked may still be the final destination

Let’s hope so. The backstop language really doesn’t need to move much, for a clear majority of MPs (and the country at large) to be happy with it. But it has to be the legal WA Treaty that changes, not some meaningless document that sits next to it.

The reason why there’s all the talk from candidates about no deal, isn’t that no deal is preferable to a deal (it isn’t), but that there’s no chance whatsoever of getting the WA amended unless the EU understand that we are prepared to go through with it.

AndyJS said:

Ken Baker on Sky News talking about 1626 and 1628 in relation to Parliament being prorogued.

JackW said:

AndyJS said:

Ken Baker on Sky News talking about 1626 and 1628 in relation to Parliament being prorogued.

I wasn't there .... honestly ....

noneoftheabove said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

HYUFD said:

If the Tories do not commit to deliver Brexit they will be overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right it is as simple as that. No Deal Brexit would create difficulties and is certainly not as ideal a scenario as Brexit with a Deal but it would not produce the existential crisis for the Tories of failing to deliver Brexit at all

Probably we will leave on something like Theresa May's terms but tweaked so everyone can save face. A far longer transition period before the dreaded backstop, perhaps to allow technological solutions, and removal of May's red lines round FOM. It gives all three sides cover.

I suspect the Withdrawal Agreement tweaked may still be the final destination

Let’s hope so. The backstop language really doesn’t need to move much, for a clear majority of MPs (and the country at large) to be happy with it. But it has to be the legal WA Treaty that changes, not some meaningless document that sits next to it.

The reason why there’s all the talk from candidates about no deal, isn’t that no deal is preferable to a deal (it isn’t), but that there’s no chance whatsoever of getting the WA amended unless the EU understand that we are prepared to go through with it.

The EU are aware of what the UK parliament thinks and they know we are not going to no deal. Theresa May pretended she was for two years. Boris can pretend for three months. If he wants a no deal rather than extension in October his first act will have to be trying to get a GE (which there is some chance parliament may not offer until a further extension is agreed).

Lets see how a Tory PM campaigning on delivering hard Brexit with a theoretical poll lead, a couple of unpopular alternative policies and aversion to appearing before the public to debate their flagship policy does.

noneoftheabove said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

HYUFD said:

If the Tories do not commit to deliver Brexit they will be overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right it is as simple as that. No Deal Brexit would create difficulties and is certainly not as ideal a scenario as Brexit with a Deal but it would not produce the existential crisis for the Tories of failing to deliver Brexit at all

Probably we will leave on something like Theresa May's terms but tweaked so everyone can save face. A far longer transition period before the dreaded backstop, perhaps to allow technological solutions, and removal of May's red lines round FOM. It gives all three sides cover.

I suspect the Withdrawal Agreement tweaked may still be the final destination

Let’s hope so. The backstop language really doesn’t need to move much, for a clear majority of MPs (and the country at large) to be happy with it. But it has to be the legal WA Treaty that changes, not some meaningless document that sits next to it.

The reason why there’s all the talk from candidates about no deal, isn’t that no deal is preferable to a deal (it isn’t), but that there’s no chance whatsoever of getting the WA amended unless the EU understand that we are prepared to go through with it.

The EU are aware of what the UK parliament thinks and they know we are not going to no deal. Theresa May pretended she was for two years. Boris can pretend for three months. If he wants a no deal rather than extension in October his first act will have to be trying to get a GE (which there is some chance parliament may not offer until a further extension is agreed).

Lets see how a Tory PM campaigning on delivering hard Brexit with a theoretical poll lead, a couple of unpopular alternative policies and aversion to appearing before the public to debate their flagship policy does.

geoffw said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

geoffw said:

There being no answer to @isam's question other than suggestions that he write one shows the institutional bias of this site. Sad but true.

Except we’ve done so, unless you think Richard Tyndall is a Remainer.

Richard Tyndall has written a couple of headers on Leaving/what to do next.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/26/richard-tyndall-on-the-exit-strategy/

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/29/richard-tyndall-on-laying-the-groundwork-for-an-out-vote/

One before and one immediately after the 2016 referendum.
Anything since then?

oldpolitics said:

HYUFD said:

A late boost for Andrea Leadsom from IpsosMori as she is the only Tory leadership contender who has a bigger lead than Boris over Corbyn as preferred PM across the UK. Gove does worst only tieing Corbyn

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/conservative-leadership-candidates-head-head-versus-jeremy-corbyn

And yet the Leadsom Betfair bubble has burst.

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1139097986368192512?s=20

AndyJS said:

Raab needs to get more than 30 votes to credibly stay in the race. He's been stuck on 23 endorsements for a very long time.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1139100776385654784

JosiasJessop said:

An easy way to sort out the Conservative leadership election:

The winner is whoever drinks the most Sourtoe Cocktails!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48612467

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

HYUFD said:

If the Tories do not commit to deliver Brexit they will be overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right it is as simple as that. No Deal Brexit would create difficulties and is certainly not as ideal a scenario as Brexit with a Deal but it would not produce the existential crisis for the Tories of failing to deliver Brexit at all

Probably we will leave on something like Theresa May's terms but tweaked so everyone can save face. A far longer transition period before the dreaded backstop, perhaps to allow technological solutions, and removal of May's red lines round FOM. It gives all three sides cover.

I suspect the Withdrawal Agreement tweaked may still be the final destination

Likewise. But with a Paddington Hard Stare from Boris, directed at Brussels. If he thinks for one minute the EU is acting in bad faith, he will pull the whole thing. "Abrogation" will be the big stick Boris will threaten to wield, a weapon unknown in May's armoury.

Having planned for it in the meantime.

kinabalu said:

Apols if already done but I am interested in what people think the 2 magic numbers are for Johnson in the 1st ballot - i.e. the one that if he exceeds it means he is virtually home and hosed, and the one that if he falls below it means he might be in serious danger.

I am thinking 120 and 80?

isam said:

OllyT said:

isam said:

Has there ever been a thread header on here that gives a positive or balanced view of leaving the EU? I don’t think I have read one that pays any attention to the people who voted for it and the reasons why it might be a good thing for them if it happened.

Why don't you write one yourself instead of whinging

I’ve answered that question several times on this thread, but is it really whingeing to point out the imbalance?

I merely enquired if there had been any, and now @TheScreamingEagles has confirmed: Two in the last 1500 days/4500 threads or so, and none for three years, (written by a leaver that is pro mass immigration, so not entirely representative of leave voters I’d say)

JosiasJessop said:

I fear you're putting a little too much faith in Boris's skill and planning. In what do you base this faith ?

isam said:

OllyT said:

geoffw said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

geoffw said:

There being no answer to @isam's question other than suggestions that he write one shows the institutional bias of this site. Sad but true.

Except we’ve done so, unless you think Richard Tyndall is a Remainer.

Richard Tyndall has written a couple of headers on Leaving/what to do next.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/26/richard-tyndall-on-the-exit-strategy/

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/29/richard-tyndall-on-laying-the-groundwork-for-an-out-vote/

One before and one immediately after the 2016 referendum.
Anything since then?

Seriously unless you are suggesting that pro-Brexit headers are being submitted and rejected or censored we must assume that they are not appearing because nobody is writing them.

Seems like the usual case of leavers blaming everyone else but themselves for the problem. Perhaps some of you should get off your backsides and submit a piece

I have submitted two or three which have been knocked back or ignored, so your assumption is incorrect.

Anyway, I am prepared to accept the site bias, I like commenting below the line, but thought it worth pointing out