Much as I'd like to see a big surprise today, past form suggests that MPs tend to vote the way they say they will, even in a secret ballot. My guess is Boris will romp home, Gove and Raab will do badly. Stewart might scrape into the next round, which would be a hell of a result for him.
Someone was good enough to link to his launch yesterday tea time and I watched it last night. That is so much how I want my politics. Intelligent, serious, respectful, balanced, consensus seeking and principled. So much sound bite politics aren't. So far from the lunacies of Momentum or the ERG. It is frustrating that it probably ends today.
Fair play to him for trying. It's no humiliation given he was not expected to achieve anything to begin with.
Johnson losing Uxbridge is not going to happen. It's a Leave area and there is no third party vote for Labour to squeeze, They maxed out in 2017 and Johnson still won comfortably. The one to watch is IDS. There was a very small Remain majority in Chingford and Woodford Green, there is still an LD and Green vote for Labour to tap into and the Tory vote has been in decline there since 2010. I suspect that Johnson as PM will finally cost the Quiet Man his seat.
Yet Uxbridge, like most of Outer London, is changing fast. Its population is increasing by over 1.5% (+5,000 people) per year. Every year 1% of the population total switches from white to BAME: the White British population will shortly drop to 40% having been 43% in 2017, 48% in 2011 and 73% in 2001.
It depends on the precise circumstances in which an election took place. In a post-Brexit meltdown, he'd be gone. In a VONC pre-Brexit GE, not sure. There are factors cutting both ways, as other posters have indicated. All I'd say is there's a definite possibilty.
Because I do not like the European project. I do not like more and more of our decisions being taken in an undemocratic structure by people we have no right to remove. I want my politicians to be accountable, to decide how we spend our own money, what our own priorities are. I do not approve of the gradual downgrading of the nation state. I see that as the objective of the project and the Euro as the main means of achieving this. Once national politicians are accountable for how much money is spent and what it is spent on they really are local government. I see the EZ being increasingly dominant inside the EU and pressure to join it over time. I think policy will evolve to favour the EZ bloc with its QMV to our detriment. I get it that some like our own Mr Glenn see these as a desirable end state, I don't.
None of this means that I want any unnecessary disruption in trade with the EU. I also accept that if you are going to have free unregulated trade you need common standards and regulatory equivalence at least in internationally traded goo that such choices are not free and have consequences.
For me May's deal was and is a possible solution to this. Other solutions may exist but that is the one we have and time is pressing. A trade agreement built on the bones of that WA is likely to meet my objectives, modest as they are. As I have said on here before our relationship with the EU will always continue to evolve as it has throughout our membership. None of these choices are forever, not even leaving if the British people chose to go back in years to come. But right now we chose to leave and our political class should honour that choice.
Totally agree. The EU is not just about harmonising product standards across 27 countries.
It might surprise some to find that a lot of Remainers would agree with a lot of this. I certainly do, it's just that when the dog has fleas I prefer to take it to the vet, not shoot it - but I see why some might do the latter.
Not so much the dog has fleas, as it has fundamental health issues because of the grim determination of the breeders to pursue a purity of shape. And now the poor thing can barely breathe....
Yes, there comes a point when you have to put a dog down and if you really think the EU is in that kind of condition, fairy nuff. I think that is a pretty myopic view though. Seems we're just about the only EU country that thinks that way now too. The popularity of the institution seems to have grown since other nations have been able to observe our Brexit travails.
I expect that trend to continue if we really do leave with No Deal.
Johnson losing Uxbridge is not going to happen. It's a Leave area and there is no third party vote for Labour to squeeze, They maxed out in 2017 and Johnson still won comfortably. The one to watch is IDS. There was a very small Remain majority in Chingford and Woodford Green, there is still an LD and Green vote for Labour to tap into and the Tory vote has been in decline there since 2010. I suspect that Johnson as PM will finally cost the Quiet Man his seat.
I'd say much the same about Chingford, as well. The Tory vote is only just under 50%, and the Conservatives did very well in local elections there (as they did in Uxbridge).
What I think makes IDS very vulnerable are the swings away from him in the last two GEs, which when combined are pretty large. That suggests the demographic of the constituency is changing quite rapidly. And, on top, there is still an anti-Tory vote for Labour to squeeze. I think Johnson as leader will see that happening.
Johnson losing Uxbridge is not going to happen. It's a Leave area and there is no third party vote for Labour to squeeze, They maxed out in 2017 and Johnson still won comfortably. The one to watch is IDS. There was a very small Remain majority in Chingford and Woodford Green, there is still an LD and Green vote for Labour to tap into and the Tory vote has been in decline there since 2010. I suspect that Johnson as PM will finally cost the Quiet Man his seat.
Yet Uxbridge, like most of Outer London, is changing fast. Its population is increasing by over 1.5% (+5,000 people) per year. Every year 1% of the population total switches from white to BAME: the White British population will shortly drop to 40% having been 43% in 2017, 48% in 2011 and 73% in 2001.
It depends on the precise circumstances in which an election took place. In a post-Brexit meltdown, he'd be gone. In a VONC pre-Brexit GE, not sure. There are factors cutting both ways, as other posters have indicated. All I'd say is there's a definite possibilty.
Much as I'd like to see a big surprise today, past form suggests that MPs tend to vote the way they say they will, even in a secret ballot. My guess is Boris will romp home, Gove and Raab will do badly. Stewart might scrape into the next round, which would be a hell of a result for him.
The rumour is that Rory and Leadsom have been lent votes to get them through. Personally I don't think campaigns should do that. If a candidate has so little support from MPs then they shouldn't be in the process, that's the point of it.
Having said which, I do hope he makes it through. I think he'd be a very useful addition to the Channel 4 debate.
Even the Tory Party will be somewhat sheepish about a field consisting entirely of men. There'll be some who want to see Leadsom through to the TV debates.
Will people really be sheepish about it? Token candidates is just embarrassing and they have a very easy and true counter to an accusation they dont encourage female candidates given the final two last time were both women.
Its like when people got outraged about May making a joke about boy jobs and girl jobs re taking out the rubbish bins etc when interviewed with her husband. Some people really acted like she was saying women couldn't do some things, were lesser, as she sat there as leader of this country!
Much as I'd like to see a big surprise today, past form suggests that MPs tend to vote the way they say they will, even in a secret ballot. My guess is Boris will romp home, Gove and Raab will do badly. Stewart might scrape into the next round, which would be a hell of a result for him.
The rumour is that Rory and Leadsom have been lent votes to get them through.
Hmmm. Until the most duplicitous electorate outside the Vatican actually cast their votes, I'd view that with some skepticism. Spreading the anti-Boris votes too far and wide risks making the gap to anybody else so wide that pressure for a coronation grows....
Kiss hands. Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour. Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members. Win election. But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency. Peerage.
Interesting scenario, quite possible.
Who takes over as leader then ?
Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?
Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?
I reckon roughly the following
Boris to win @ 65% Lose VONC @ 50% Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%
I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?
IIRC it happened to Gladstone
I don’t believe that the PM technically needs to be in the Commons. So he’d find some safe seat, give the MP a peerage and win the by election... what could go wrong
In the current climate there are no safe Tory seats. And remember Patrick Gordon Walker in 1964-5. Back to PM in the Lords perhaps......
I still suspect Leadsom will surprise on the upside, as she did the last time.
You may be correct but Leadsom needs to triple her declared support to stay in the race. I suspect those candidates who only marginally pass the threshold will drop out.
Indeed as I indicated yesterday there is a prospect that Boris and Hunt hoover up around 200 votes and the others pull out and we get to the final two by close of play today.
Not sure they will. Let's say you are one of Raab, Leadsom and McVey. You know that the membership will almost certainly go for a Leaver in the final two. If you think there is a chance Boris may be forced out of the race because of more revelations to come (Janice Turner's quotation is an open invite to journalists to ask him), why not stay in?
Perhaps a fair point for Raab who will cross the threshold but McVey and Leadsom might not even make the cut. Neither do I discount further damaging revelations about Boris but he seems presently to enjoy a Trumpian ability to shrug off criticism that would sink other candidates. Further it seems to enhance his status with the faithful. It's :
"We Want Boris And We Don't Care"
Boris reminds me of the German postmaster in Love in the Time of Cholera. He was fat with cherubic genitalia yet all the whores in the hotel wanted to sleep with him. This was because he used an ointment based on snake venom which inflamed their vulvae. In this brilliant metaphor the tory members are the whores giving it away and No Deal is the semi poisonous yet stimulating cock butter.
Much as I'd like to see a big surprise today, past form suggests that MPs tend to vote the way they say they will, even in a secret ballot. My guess is Boris will romp home, Gove and Raab will do badly. Stewart might scrape into the next round, which would be a hell of a result for him.
The rumour is that Rory and Leadsom have been lent votes to get them through. Personally I don't think campaigns should do that. If a candidate has so little support from MPs then they shouldn't be in the process, that's the point of it.
Having said which, I do hope he makes it through. I think he'd be a very useful addition to the Channel 4 debate.
Even the Tory Party will be somewhat sheepish about a field consisting entirely of men. There'll be some who want to see Leadsom through to the TV debates.
Will people really be sheepish about it? Token candidates is just embarrassing and they have a very easy and true counter to an accusation they dont encourage female candidates given the final two last time were both women.
Its like when people got outraged about May making a joke about boy jobs and girl jobs re taking out the rubbish bins etc when interviewed with her husband. Some people really acted like she was saying women couldn't do some things, were lesser, as she sat there as leader of this country!
I would have thought that after Jezza no MP in their right mind would agree to lend support to someone they did not see fit.
Has there ever been a thread header on here that gives a positive or balanced view of leaving the EU? I don’t think I have read one that pays any attention to the people who voted for it and the reasons why it might be a good thing for them if it happened.
Much as I'd like to see a big surprise today, past form suggests that MPs tend to vote the way they say they will, even in a secret ballot. My guess is Boris will romp home, Gove and Raab will do badly. Stewart might scrape into the next round, which would be a hell of a result for him.
The rumour is that Rory and Leadsom have been lent votes to get them through.
Hmmm. Until the most duplicitous electorate outside the Vatican actually cast their votes, I'd view that with some skepticism. Spreading the anti-Boris votes too far and wide risks making the gap to anybody else so wide that pressure for a coronation grows....
They can show some spine and resist thar then. Not least since Boris fans were so incensed he might not make the final two they whinges to high heaven that more names should go forward. All those members who complained in hindsight that they didn't vote last time would be utter hypocrites if their concerns vanished because their preferred candidate is winning.
The plans of most candidates will take one phone call to see if negotiations can reopen, so there's no time concern.
No doubt the top contenders will secure at least some of the votes of those backing those making an early exit, but for those who really dont like the top candidates theres no harm transferring in a way to keep as many in the race as possible, or voting that way initially.
Kiss hands. Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour. Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members. Win election. But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency. Peerage.
Interesting scenario, quite possible.
Who takes over as leader then ?
Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?
Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?
I reckon roughly the following
Boris to win @ 65% Lose VONC @ 50% Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%
I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?
I don't see Farage winning Uxbridge or any seat in London.
Nor do I, but I can see Farage taking 5,000 votes from Boris which will be enough for a Labour win.
Decapitation doesn’t work. If Boris is PM his majority will firm up and increase.
I am not too sure given the demographic spread he has in Uxbridge now.
Has there ever been a thread header on here that gives a positive or balanced view of leaving the EU? I don’t think I have read one that pays any attention to the people who voted for it and the reasons why it might be a good thing for them if it happened.
I’m sure that you’re most welcome to write one as others I’m sure will tell you.
Has there ever been a thread header on here that gives a positive or balanced view of leaving the EU? I don’t think I have read one that pays any attention to the people who voted for it and the reasons why it might be a good thing for them if it happened.
That's because there are no benefits for the beetle browed Pringles munchers that voted leave.
“I have 4 beautiful children from my marriage to Marina, and as people already know I have a daughter from another relationship. But that’s not what people in the country care about - Brexit blah blah”
It doesn’t answer the question but sounds like it does.
Any follow up gets “this is not a discussion about my personal life, we are talking about X”
Has there ever been a thread header on here that gives a positive or balanced view of leaving the EU? I don’t think I have read one that pays any attention to the people who voted for it and the reasons why it might be a good thing for them if it happened.
It has. On balance, leaving the EU will be a complete and utter disaster is the general view.
Much as I'd like to see a big surprise today, past form suggests that MPs tend to vote the way they say they will, even in a secret ballot. My guess is Boris will romp home, Gove and Raab will do badly. Stewart might scrape into the next round, which would be a hell of a result for him.
The rumour is that Rory and Leadsom have been lent votes to get them through. Personally I don't think campaigns should do that. If a candidate has so little support from MPs then they shouldn't be in the process, that's the point of it.
Having said which, I do hope he makes it through. I think he'd be a very useful addition to the Channel 4 debate.
Even the Tory Party will be somewhat sheepish about a field consisting entirely of men. There'll be some who want to see Leadsom through to the TV debates.
Will people really be sheepish about it? Token candidates is just embarrassing and they have a very easy and true counter to an accusation they dont encourage female candidates given the final two last time were both women.
Its like when people got outraged about May making a joke about boy jobs and girl jobs re taking out the rubbish bins etc when interviewed with her husband. Some people really acted like she was saying women couldn't do some things, were lesser, as she sat there as leader of this country!
I would have thought that after Jezza no MP in their right mind would agree to lend support to someone they did not see fit.
Different systems though. Lending support in that case automatically have Corbyn a chance as he went to members. Letting rory or leadsom scrape through to another ballot of mps wont give them the scores of votes they need to keep going.
Mps are cynical folk I am sure, they arent going to be swayed en masse by low rated candidates at this point.
Has there ever been a thread header on here that gives a positive or balanced view of leaving the EU? I don’t think I have read one that pays any attention to the people who voted for it and the reasons why it might be a good thing for them if it happened.
Has there ever been a thread header on here that gives a positive or balanced view of leaving the EU? I don’t think I have read one that pays any attention to the people who voted for it and the reasons why it might be a good thing for them if it happened.
Has there ever been a thread header on here that gives a positive or balanced view of leaving the EU? I don’t think I have read one that pays any attention to the people who voted for it and the reasons why it might be a good thing for them if it happened.
More to the point, has one ever been submitted that Mike’s refused to publish?
Has there ever been a thread header on here that gives a positive or balanced view of leaving the EU? I don’t think I have read one that pays any attention to the people who voted for it and the reasons why it might be a good thing for them if it happened.
I’m sure that you’re most welcome to write one as others I’m sure will tell you.
Perhaps PBers might indicate where a surprise might occur in the vote.
It's too easy to say Gove will struggle so I'm opting for Rabb to bomb - 25-30 votes.
That's my pick for suprise. Most likely because it aligns closest with my nightmare scenario of Leadsom suprising on the upisde.
She will do well enough to make us layers go ugh but be nowhere near second and a clear candidate in the non bonkers lane will emerge to challenge Boris
Has there ever been a thread header on here that gives a positive or balanced view of leaving the EU? I don’t think I have read one that pays any attention to the people who voted for it and the reasons why it might be a good thing for them if it happened.
Has there ever been a thread header on here that gives a positive or balanced view of leaving the EU? I don’t think I have read one that pays any attention to the people who voted for it and the reasons why it might be a good thing for them if it happened.
More to the point, has one ever been submitted that Mike’s refused to publish?
Have any of the Conservative contenders mentioned student debt, in particular in the context of their fantasy tax cut promises ?
Or are the Conservative contenders still in denial about how much the student debt issue is damaging both to the country and in particular to future Conservative prospects ?
“I have 4 beautiful children from my marriage to Marina, and as people already know I have a daughter from another relationship. But that’s not what people in the country care about - Brexit blah blah”
It doesn’t answer the question but sounds like it does.
Any follow up gets “this is not a discussion about my personal life, we are talking about X”
I see no problem. He will assert that he has [ on last count ] less than 10 children fron 4 or fewer relationships.
Has there ever been a thread header on here that gives a positive or balanced view of leaving the EU? I don’t think I have read one that pays any attention to the people who voted for it and the reasons why it might be a good thing for them if it happened.
Perhaps you'd like to write one ?
DavidL puts forward a principled case earlier in this thread, but it's not exactly overwhelmingly positive, and was probably not one which would have won the referendum. There seem to have been several different motivations for voting for Brexit, which are not entirely compatible with each other - as the past couple of years have demonstrated.
Have any of the Conservative contenders mentioned student debt, in particular in the context of their fantasy tax cut promises ?
Or are the Conservative contenders still in denial about how much the student debt issue is damaging both to the country and in particular to future Conservative prospects ?
Have any of the Conservative contenders mentioned student debt, in particular in the context of their fantasy tax cut promises ?
Or are the Conservative contenders still in denial about how much the student debt issue is damaging both to the country and in particular to future Conservative prospects ?
Not seen it and I agree that there have been few policies so destructive of our future property owning, tory voting, stable democracy. It is going to take serious money to fix and there are going to be many unhappy losers.
This time: sponsors lent to Andrea Leadsom. Last time: May supporters voting for Gove to beat Leadsom. Time before: Cameron supporters voting for Davis over Fox.
No proof but solid rumours. Call it tactical voting if you prefer.
Because I do not like the European project. I do not like more and more of our decisions being taken in an undemocratic structure by people we have no right to remove. I want my politicians to be accountable, to decide how we spend our own money, what our own priorities are. I do not approve of the gradual downgrading of the nation state. I see that as the objective of the project and the Euro as the main means of achieving this. Once national politicians are accountable for how much money is spent and what it is spent on they really are local government. I see the EZ being increasingly dominant inside the EU and pressure to join it over time. I think policy will evolve to favour the EZ bloc with its QMV to our detriment. I get it that some like our own Mr Glenn see these as a desirable end state, I don't.
None of this means that I want any unnecessary disruption in trade with the EU. I also accept that if you are going to have free unregulated trade you need common standards and regulatory equivalence at least in internationally traded goods. I accept that complete independence is a ridiculous fantasy. Cooperation on a bilateral state basis is a good thing not a trap. My objective is a UK that has a close relationship with the EU, works together on common problems but is that bit apart and has the freedom to choose its own path, recognising that such choices are not free and have consequences.
For me May's deal was and is a possible solution to this. Other solutions may exist but that is the one we have and time is pressing. A trade agreement built on the bones of that WA is likely to meet my objectives, modest as they are. As I have said on here before our relationship with the EU will always continue to evolve as it has throughout our membership. None of these choices are forever, not even leaving if the British people chose to go back in years to come. But right now we chose to leave and our political class should honour that choice.
Boris reminds me of the German postmaster in Love in the Time of Cholera. He was fat with cherubic genitalia yet all the whores in the hotel wanted to sleep with him. This was because he used an ointment based on snake venom which inflamed their vulvae. In this brilliant metaphor the tory members are the whores giving it away and No Deal is the semi poisonous yet stimulating cock butter.
Because I do not like the European project. I do not like more and more of our decisions being taken in an undemocratic structure by people we have no right to remove. I want my politicians to be accountable, to decide how we spend our own money, what our own priorities are. I do not approve of the gradual downgrading of the nation state. I see that as the objective of the project and the Euro as the main means of achieving this. Once national politicians are accountable for how much money is spent and what it is spent on they really are local government. I see the EZ being increasingly dominant inside the EU and pressure to join it over time. I think policy will evolve to favour the EZ bloc with its QMV to our detriment. I get it that some like our own Mr Glenn see these as a desirable end state, I don't.
None of this means that I want any unnecessary disruption in trade with the EU. I also accept that if you are going to have free unregulated trade you need common standards and regulatory equivalence at least in internationally traded goods. I accept that complete independence is a ridiculous fantasy. Cooperation on a bilateral state basis is a good thing not a trap. My objective is a UK that has a close relationship with the EU, works together on common problems but is that bit apart and has the freedom to choose its own path, recognising that such choices are not free and have consequences.
For me May's deal was and is a possible solution to this. Other solutions may exist but that is the one we have and time is pressing. A trade agreement built on the bones of that WA is likely to meet my objectives, modest as they are. As I have said on here before our relationship with the EU will always continue to evolve as it has throughout our membership. None of these choices are forever, not even leaving if the British people chose to go back in years to come. But right now we chose to leave and our political class should honour that choice.
Totally agree. The EU is not just about harmonising product standards across 27 countries.
It might surprise some to find that a lot of Remainers would agree with a lot of this. I certainly do, it's just that when the dog has fleas I prefer to take it to the vet, not shoot it - but I see why some might do the latter.
Not so much the dog has fleas, as it has fundamental health issues because of the grim determination of the breeders to pursue a purity of shape. And now the poor thing can barely breathe....
More importantly it had no interest in going to the vet and couldn’t be forced
(And, Peter, you can buy fipronil without a prescription these days - far cheaper)
Because I do not like the European project. I do not like more and more of our decisions being taken in an undemocratic structure by people we have no right to remove. I want my politicians to be accountable, to decide how we spend our own money, what our own priorities are. I do not approve of the gradual downgrading of the nation state. I see that as the objective of the project and the Euro as the main means of achieving this. Once national politicians are accountable for how much money is spent and what it is spent on they really are local government. I see the EZ being increasingly dominant inside the EU and pressure to join it over time. I think policy will evolve to favour the EZ bloc with its QMV to our detriment. I get it that some like our own Mr Glenn see these as a desirable end state, I don't.
None of this means that I want any unnecessary disruption in trade with the EU. I also accept that if you are going to have free unregulated trade you need common standards and regulatory equivalence at least in internationally traded goods. I accept that complete independence is a ridiculous fantasy. Cooperation on a bilateral state basis is a good thing not a trap. My objective is a UK that has a close relationship with the EU, works together on common problems but is that bit apart and has the freedom to choose its own path, recognising that such choices are not free and have consequences.
For me May's deal was and is a possible solution to this. Other solutions may exist but that is the one we have and time is pressing. A trade agreement built on the bones of that WA is likely to meet my objectives, modest as they are. As I have said on here before our relationship with the EU will always continue to evolve as it has throughout our membership. None of these choices are forever, not even leaving if the British people chose to go back in years to come. But right now we chose to leave and our political class should honour that choice.
Totally agree. The EU is not just about harmonising product standards across 27 countries.
It might surprise some to find that a lot of Remainers would agree with a lot of this. I certainly do, it's just that when the dog has fleas I prefer to take it to the vet, not shoot it - but I see why some might do the latter.
Not so much the dog has fleas, as it has fundamental health issues because of the grim determination of the breeders to pursue a purity of shape. And now the poor thing can barely breathe....
A metaphor which might equally well apply to Brexit, though.
Has there ever been a thread header on here that gives a positive or balanced view of leaving the EU? I don’t think I have read one that pays any attention to the people who voted for it and the reasons why it might be a good thing for them if it happened.
Perhaps you'd like to write one ?
DavidL puts forward a principled case earlier in this thread, but it's not exactly overwhelmingly positive, and was probably not one which would have won the referendum. There seem to have been several different motivations for voting for Brexit, which are not entirely compatible with each other - as the past couple of years have demonstrated.
What do you think will, or should happen next ?
My case is not overwhelmingly positive because I have always recognised that there are many good things about the EU to offset the bad. It was a fairly closely balanced decision for me, not least because I liked Cameron and Osborne's leadership. Anyone suggesting that this is clear cut good or bad, black or white has simply not engaged their brain and falls to be ignored.
I did like Stewart's comments about John Curtice. He said that popular opinion used to bell shaped but was now U shaped with almost everyone having left the middle for the extremes. We need to get back there.
I thought it would be amusing to look at the London subsamples - given Johnson's tenure as Mayor of London - and it turns out that Leadsom is the only candidate (of those polled) to lead Corbyn in London, by 34-33. Johnson is behind 40-35, Gove also has a five point deficit, Hunt and Javid are just one point behind.
Usual numerous caveats apply, but you'd think the people of London would know Johnson best.
Londoners remember his posturing as a Remain Mayor.
It's significant that Corbyn scores highest against Boris - this has to reflect a segment of the electorate - we have some on this board - who don't like Corbyn but think Boris is worse. Boris will do well at recovering BXP votes (unless Brexit fails), but he will also shore up the anti-Tory tactical vote. I assume his plan is to win an election on a sod-the-EU platform, and then navigate unideologically through the following years. A similar approach has worked for Trump up to now: if people like you personally and aren't sure you'll screw them politically, it can keep support for longer than one would think.
The article is good, like all Cyclefree's pieces, and plenty of text is fine when it's good text - I'm always disappointed when I find the PB lead is just two paragraphs, though I know it's hard to do a big article every time. To be fair, the civil service has been working hard on immediate post-Brexit mitigation. What I'm genuinely unclear about is whether they've mapped out choices for the way forward after the first few months.
Very interesting article, but contains a misleading statement "The Tories are gambling that ticking Brexit off the To Do list will be enough and that voters will have short memories".
Some Tories are dim, but most are not that dim. They know perfectly well that they face a threat to their very existence both if they fail to deliver Brexit and if they succeed in doing so. They only have to look at Corbyn carefully positioning himself and Labour to have clean hands whatever the outcome. If Corbyn thought there was a reliable good outcome he would be backing it.
The Tories are in the unhappy position of a punter who is obliged to stake the farm and all he possesses on the 1967 Grand National, and they know it. We know there is going to be a pile up. What we don't know is who or what is today's Foinavon.
'If in doubt go for the boring safe pair of hands' was the idea that brought us Mrs May. I think this adds greatly to the likelihood that Boris, the only candidate with charisma, will be the jockey who gets to choose the horse; his odds I think are too long at the moment.
Boris reminds me of the German postmaster in Love in the Time of Cholera. He was fat with cherubic genitalia yet all the whores in the hotel wanted to sleep with him. This was because he used an ointment based on snake venom which inflamed their vulvae. In this brilliant metaphor the tory members are the whores giving it away and No Deal is the semi poisonous yet stimulating cock butter.
Just heard Owen Paterson supporting Bozza’s higher rate tax plan by saying the band was catching teachers and police officers when it used to be for the very well off.
Some thoughts:
- in 1990... probably the last set by woolly pinko tax raiser Lawson... the threshold was £20,700 plus £3k personal allowance which equates to £53k now (pretty close to where we are).
- a teacher on either the main or upper scale can’t earn £50k. Indeed, the first ten points of the leadership scale are under £50k.
- police scales for PCs and sergeants don’t get there... so it only applies to inspectors +
These people really sound like they believe most of their target voters will benefit (or maybe 4 million higher rate taxpayers is a decent Tory target nowadays?)
Has there ever been a thread header on here that gives a positive or balanced view of leaving the EU? I don’t think I have read one that pays any attention to the people who voted for it and the reasons why it might be a good thing for them if it happened.
It is entirely possible to right a header that pays attention to the people who voted for Brexit.
There are no reasons why it might be a good thing for them if it happened.
Has there ever been a thread header on here that gives a positive or balanced view of leaving the EU? I don’t think I have read one that pays any attention to the people who voted for it and the reasons why it might be a good thing for them if it happened.
Perhaps you'd like to write one ?
DavidL puts forward a principled case earlier in this thread, but it's not exactly overwhelmingly positive, and was probably not one which would have won the referendum. There seem to have been several different motivations for voting for Brexit, which are not entirely compatible with each other - as the past couple of years have demonstrated.
What do you think will, or should happen next ?
My case is not overwhelmingly positive because I have always recognised that there are many good things about the EU to offset the bad. It was a fairly closely balanced decision for me, not least because I liked Cameron and Osborne's leadership. Anyone suggesting that this is clear cut good or bad, black or white has simply not engaged their brain and falls to be ignored.
I did like Stewart's comments about John Curtice. He said that popular opinion used to bell shaped but was now U shaped with almost everyone having left the middle for the extremes. We need to get back there.
I liked that comment because it showed he knows the message he is pursuing is not popular but he wants to try anyway.
Just heard Owen Paterson supporting Bozza’s higher rate tax plan by saying the band was catching teachers and police officers when it used to be for the very well off.
Some thoughts:
- in 1990... probably the last set by woolly pinko tax raiser Lawson... the threshold was £20,700 plus £3k personal allowance which equates to £53k now (pretty close to where we are).
- a teacher on either the main or upper scale can’t earn £50k. Indeed, the first ten points of the leadership scale are under £50k.
- police scales for PCs and sergeants don’t get there... so it only applies to inspectors +
These people really sound like they believe most of their target voters will benefit (or maybe 4 million higher rate taxpayers is a decent Tory target nowadays?)
Headteachers and senior police officers. Who are pretty well off.
Just heard Owen Paterson supporting Bozza’s higher rate tax plan by saying the band was catching teachers and police officers when it used to be for the very well off.
Some thoughts:
- in 1990... probably the last set by woolly pinko tax raiser Lawson... the threshold was £20,700 plus £3k personal allowance which equates to £53k now (pretty close to where we are).
- a teacher on either the main or upper scale can’t earn £50k. Indeed, the first ten points of the leadership scale are under £50k.
- police scales for PCs and sergeants don’t get there... so it only applies to inspectors +
These people really sound like they believe most of their target voters will benefit (or maybe 4 million higher rate taxpayers is a decent Tory target nowadays?)
Headteachers and senior police officers. Who are pretty well off.
Quite. If OP and BoJo want to boast about their tax cut for hard-working senior managers in the public sector, good luck to them.
Has there ever been a thread header on here that gives a positive or balanced view of leaving the EU? I don’t think I have read one that pays any attention to the people who voted for it and the reasons why it might be a good thing for them if it happened.
Perhaps you'd like to write one ?
DavidL puts forward a principled case earlier in this thread, but it's not exactly overwhelmingly positive, and was probably not one which would have won the referendum. There seem to have been several different motivations for voting for Brexit, which are not entirely compatible with each other - as the past couple of years have demonstrated.
What do you think will, or should happen next ?
I have written a few that have been knocked back, they are on here
I’ve no real desire to write one, and wasn’t touting for business. I rarely read the thread headers as they always seem so repetitively condescending towards the idea of Leave when I do. It would make a change if someone made the case for respecting the referendum result though, it’s not that much of a niche opinion
Because I do not like the European project. I do not like more and more of our decisions being taken in an undemocratic structure by people we have no right to remove. I want my politicians to be accountable, to decide how we spend our own money, what our own priorities are. I do not approve of the gradual downgrading of the nation state. I see that as the objective of the project and the Euro as the main means of achieving this. Once national politicians are accountable for how much money is spent and what it is spent on they really are local government. I see the EZ being increasingly dominant inside the EU and pressure to join it over time. I think policy will evolve to favour the EZ bloc with its QMV to our detriment. I get it that some like our own Mr Glenn see these as a desirable end state, I don't.
None of this means that I want any unnecessary disruption in trade with the EU. I also accept that if you are going to have free unregulated trade you need common standards and regulatory equivalence at least in internationally traded goods. I accept that complete independence is a ridiculous fantasy. Cooperation on a bilateral state basis is a good thing not a trap. My objective is a UK that has a close relationship with the EU, works together on common problems but is that bit apart and has the freedom to choose its own path, recognising that such choices are not free and have consequences.
For me May's deal was and is a possible solution to this. Other solutions may exist but that is the one we have and time is pressing. A trade agreement built on the bones of that WA is likely to meet my objectives, modest as they are. As I have said on here before our relationship with the EU will always continue to evolve as it has throughout our membership. None of these choices are forever, not even leaving if the British people chose to go back in years to come. But right now we chose to leave and our political class should honour that choice.
Sky confirm that the US navy are assisting tankers in the Gulf of Oman as crews evacuate after attacks that are rumoured to be by torpedos. Sky saying not confirmed but if so massive crisis looms as the finger is being pointed at Iran.
Just heard Owen Paterson supporting Bozza’s higher rate tax plan by saying the band was catching teachers and police officers when it used to be for the very well off.
Some thoughts:
- in 1990... probably the last set by woolly pinko tax raiser Lawson... the threshold was £20,700 plus £3k personal allowance which equates to £53k now (pretty close to where we are).
- a teacher on either the main or upper scale can’t earn £50k. Indeed, the first ten points of the leadership scale are under £50k.
- police scales for PCs and sergeants don’t get there... so it only applies to inspectors +
These people really sound like they believe most of their target voters will benefit (or maybe 4 million higher rate taxpayers is a decent Tory target nowadays?)
They will argue that it also helps people to aspire to earn more and work harder and longer!
Sky confirm that the US navy are assisting tankers in the Gulf of Oman as crews evacuate after attacks that are rumoured to be by torpedos. Sky saying not confirmed but if so massive crisis looms as the finger is being pointed at Iran.
Johnson losing Uxbridge is not going to happen. It's a Leave area and there is no third party vote for Labour to squeeze, They maxed out in 2017 and Johnson still won comfortably. The one to watch is IDS. There was a very small Remain majority in Chingford and Woodford Green, there is still an LD and Green vote for Labour to tap into and the Tory vote has been in decline there since 2010. I suspect that Johnson as PM will finally cost the Quiet Man his seat.
Yet Uxbridge, like most of Outer London, is changing fast. Its population is increasing by over 1.5% (+5,000 people) per year. Every year 1% of the population total switches from white to BAME: the White British population will shortly drop to 40% having been 43% in 2017, 48% in 2011 and 73% in 2001.
And it will also have had a significant reduction in home ownership.
Of all the Conservative contenders Boris is the one who should realise the risks uncontrolled immigration and falling home ownership has to Conservative prospects.
Has there ever been a thread header on here that gives a positive or balanced view of leaving the EU? I don’t think I have read one that pays any attention to the people who voted for it and the reasons why it might be a good thing for them if it happened.
It is entirely possible to right a header that pays attention to the people who voted for Brexit.
There are no reasons why it might be a good thing for them if it happened.
“It is entirely possible to right a header that pays attention to the people who voted for Brexit.”
I thought it would be amusing to look at the London subsamples - given Johnson's tenure as Mayor of London - and it turns out that Leadsom is the only candidate (of those polled) to lead Corbyn in London, by 34-33. Johnson is behind 40-35, Gove also has a five point deficit, Hunt and Javid are just one point behind.
Usual numerous caveats apply, but you'd think the people of London would know Johnson best.
Londoners remember his posturing as a Remain Mayor.
It's significant that Corbyn scores highest against Boris - this has to reflect a segment of the electorate - we have some on this board - who don't like Corbyn but think Boris is worse...
Does it not rather demonstrate that more of the public have made their mind up about Johnson, and don't really know much about the rest; if you don't really know who someone is, how can you rate them against Cornyn ?
This kind of polling doesn't really tell you very much - except that the public isn't very keen on Gove.
Because I do not like the European project. I do not like more and more of our decisions being taken in an undemocratic structure by people we have no right to remove. I want my politicians to be accountable, to decide how we spend our own money, what our own priorities are. I do not approve of the gradual downgrading of the nation state. I see that as the objective of the project and the Euro as the main means of achieving this. Once national politicians are accountable for how much money is spent and what it is spent on they really are local government. I see the EZ being increasingly dominant inside the EU and pressure to join it over time. I think policy will evolve to favour the EZ bloc with its QMV to our detriment. I get it that some like our own Mr Glenn see these as a desirable end state, I don't.
None of this means that I want any unnecessary disruption in trade with the EU. I also accept that if you are going to have free unregulated trade you need common standards and regulatory equivalence at least in internationally traded goods. I accept that complete independence is a ridiculous fantasy. Cooperation on a bilateral state basis is a good thing not a trap. My objective is a UK that has a close relationship with the EU, works together on common problems but is that bit apart and has the freedom to choose its own path, recognising that such choices are not free and have consequences.
For me May's deal was and is a possible solution to this. Other solutions may exist but that is the one we have and time is pressing. A trade agreement built on the bones of that WA is likely to meet my objectives, modest as they are. As I have said on here before our relationship with the EU will always continue to evolve as it has throughout our membership. None of these choices are forever, not even leaving if the British people chose to go back in years to come. But right now we chose to leave and our political class should honour that choice.
Spot on and well written
+1, but would add that EFTA or 'Norway for Now' is the only realistic medium term way of leaving, and that as this sensible middle course is not being discussed any more we have problems which mean that ultimately Remain is the most likely outcome.
Have any of the Conservative contenders mentioned student debt, in particular in the context of their fantasy tax cut promises ?
Or are the Conservative contenders still in denial about how much the student debt issue is damaging both to the country and in particular to future Conservative prospects ?
There are bugger all recent students among the electorate they have to convince to back them.
You'd have thought they had children and grandchildren, though. I assume not all Tory members just pay for their kids university education upfront.
Has there ever been a thread header on here that gives a positive or balanced view of leaving the EU? I don’t think I have read one that pays any attention to the people who voted for it and the reasons why it might be a good thing for them if it happened.
Perhaps you'd like to write one ?
DavidL puts forward a principled case earlier in this thread, but it's not exactly overwhelmingly positive, and was probably not one which would have won the referendum. There seem to have been several different motivations for voting for Brexit, which are not entirely compatible with each other - as the past couple of years have demonstrated.
What do you think will, or should happen next ?
My case is not overwhelmingly positive because I have always recognised that there are many good things about the EU to offset the bad. It was a fairly closely balanced decision for me, not least because I liked Cameron and Osborne's leadership. Anyone suggesting that this is clear cut good or bad, black or white has simply not engaged their brain and falls to be ignored.
I did like Stewart's comments about John Curtice. He said that popular opinion used to bell shaped but was now U shaped with almost everyone having left the middle for the extremes. We need to get back there.
And yet as forgive me I keep on pointing out, you voted for precisely this situation.
And you are of course one of the more sane, thoughtful Leavers (and one, an even rarer phenomenon, this) that hasn't fucked off and left the UK after voting Leave.
I thought it would be amusing to look at the London subsamples - given Johnson's tenure as Mayor of London - and it turns out that Leadsom is the only candidate (of those polled) to lead Corbyn in London, by 34-33. Johnson is behind 40-35, Gove also has a five point deficit, Hunt and Javid are just one point behind.
Usual numerous caveats apply, but you'd think the people of London would know Johnson best.
Londoners remember his posturing as a Remain Mayor.
It's significant that Corbyn scores highest against Boris - this has to reflect a segment of the electorate - we have some on this board - who don't like Corbyn but think Boris is worse...
Does it not rather demonstrate that more of the public have made their mind up about Johnson, and don't really know much about the rest; if you don't really know who someone is, how can you rate them against Cornyn ?
This kind of polling doesn't really tell you very much - except that the public isn't very keen on Gove.
And we are all wasting our time debating a 1% difference in the result of a hypothetical poll.
Johnson losing Uxbridge is not going to happen. It's a Leave area and there is no third party vote for Labour to squeeze, They maxed out in 2017 and Johnson still won comfortably. The one to watch is IDS. There was a very small Remain majority in Chingford and Woodford Green, there is still an LD and Green vote for Labour to tap into and the Tory vote has been in decline there since 2010. I suspect that Johnson as PM will finally cost the Quiet Man his seat.
This is a loose comment.
Whilst it's true that those of us who have seen through the magician's sleight of hand need to check our subjective wishes, your remark is loose.
There's no rationale or evidence that Labour have 'maxed out.' There's no such thing. And the assumption that because Uxbridge voted Leave it means all those voters will vote for Boris is a long way further than 'loose.'
Much will of course depend on the national picture. If PM Boris is as awful as Foreign Secretary Boris then the honeymoon will be short-lived. Like Mike Smithson and many others on here, I think Boris is fatally flawed with a deeply defective personality and he will sooner or later come a cropper. We shall see if he drags the country down with him.
The net Cons to Labour swing in Uxbridge from 2015 to 2017 exceeded national and London averages at 13%. A repeat next time puts him in a parlous state, even without the ongoing demographic changes and Brexit shambles.
What is incontrovertible is that Boris attracts a great deal of hatred. My tory voting brother who lives in London has not a single kind word to say for Boris. So alongside the incumbency pull you mention, he will also attract the opposite. I have LibDem friends who say they will vote Labour to decapitate him. I'm not sure why you suggest decapitation doesn't work when it clearly does: Chris Patten, Nick Clegg come to mind as most prominent but there are many other examples.
The other reason, though, for suggesting your post is loose is the Brexit Party. If they put up a half-decent candidate, perhaps even Farage himself, I can see Boris having a big problem.
Just heard Owen Paterson supporting Bozza’s higher rate tax plan by saying the band was catching teachers and police officers when it used to be for the very well off.
Some thoughts:
- in 1990... probably the last set by woolly pinko tax raiser Lawson... the threshold was £20,700 plus £3k personal allowance which equates to £53k now (pretty close to where we are).
- a teacher on either the main or upper scale can’t earn £50k. Indeed, the first ten points of the leadership scale are under £50k.
- police scales for PCs and sergeants don’t get there... so it only applies to inspectors +
These people really sound like they believe most of their target voters will benefit (or maybe 4 million higher rate taxpayers is a decent Tory target nowadays?)
They will argue that it also helps people to aspire to earn more and work harder and longer!
The argument about setting the limit far higher is that wage inflation has been far higher than actual inflation. I don't believe it myself - I know contractors earning the same now as they did in 2002...
Because I do not like the European project. I do not like more and more of our decisions being taken in an undemocratic structure by people we have no right to remove. I want my politicians to be accountable, to decide how we spend our own money, what our own priorities are. I do not approve of the gradual downgrading of the nation state. I see that as the objective of the project and the Euro as the main means of achieving this. Once national politicians are accountable for how much money is spent and what it is spent on they really are local government. I see the EZ being increasingly dominant inside the EU and pressure to join it over time. I think policy will evolve to favour the EZ bloc with its QMV to our detriment. I get it that some like our own Mr Glenn see these as a desirable end state, I don't.
None of this means that I want any unnecessary disruption in trade with the EU. I also accept that if you are going to have free unregulated trade you need common standards and regulatory equivalence at least in internationally traded goods. I accept that complete independence is a ridiculous fantasy. Cooperation on a bilateral state basis is a good thing not a trap. My objective is a UK that has a close relationship with the EU, works together on common problems but is that bit apart and has the freedom to choose its own path, recognising that such choices are not free and have consequences.
For me May's deal was and is a possible solution to this. Other solutions may exist but that is the one we have and time is pressing. A trade agreement built on the bones of that WA is likely to meet my objectives, modest as they are. As I have said on here before our relationship with the EU will always continue to evolve as it has throughout our membership. None of these choices are forever, not even leaving if the British people chose to go back in years to come. But right now we chose to leave and our political class should honour that choice.
Excellent post!
I don't 100% agree (I think the undemocratic nature of the backstop is a deal breaker) but almost completely do.
Because I do not like the European project. I do not like more and more of our decisions being taken in an undemocratic structure by people we have no right to remove. I want my politicians to be accountable, to decide how we spend our own money, what our own priorities are. I do not approve of the gradual downgrading of the nation state. I see that as the objective of the project and the Euro as the main means of achieving this. Once national politicians are accountable for how much money is spent and what it is spent on they really are local government. I see the EZ being increasingly dominant inside the EU and pressure to join it over time. I think policy will evolve to favour the EZ bloc with its QMV to our detriment. I get it that some like our own Mr Glenn see these as a desirable end state, I don't.
None of this means that I want any unnecessary disruption in trade with the EU. I also accept that if you are going to have free unregulated trade you need common standards and regulatory equivalence at least in internationally traded goods. I accept that complete independence is a ridiculous fantasy. Cooperation on a bilateral state basis is a good thing not a trap. My objective is a UK that has a close relationship with the EU, works together on common problems but is that bit apart and has the freedom to choose its own path, recognising that such choices are not free and have consequences.
For me May's deal was and is a possible solution to this. Other solutions may exist but that is the one we have and time is pressing. A trade agreement built on the bones of that WA is likely to meet my objectives, modest as they are. As I have said on here before our relationship with the EU will always continue to evolve as it has throughout our membership. None of these choices are forever, not even leaving if the British people chose to go back in years to come. But right now we chose to leave and our political class should honour that choice.
Spot on and well written
+1, but would add that EFTA or 'Norway for Now' is the only realistic medium term way of leaving, and that as this sensible middle course is not being discussed any more we have problems which mean that ultimately Remain is the most likely outcome.
The votes of those who wanted EFTA/Norway as a solution tipped the balance for Brexit. They are probably only a small minority of the leave vote, though.
Which is why we are where we are, even if that might be the Brexit most in the country would be happiest (or least unhappy) with.
Has there ever been a thread header on here that gives a positive or balanced view of leaving the EU? I don’t think I have read one that pays any attention to the people who voted for it and the reasons why it might be a good thing for them if it happened.
Perhaps you'd like to write one ?
DavidL puts forward a principled case earlier in this thread, but it's not exactly overwhelmingly positive, and was probably not one which would have won the referendum. There seem to have been several different motivations for voting for Brexit, which are not entirely compatible with each other - as the past couple of years have demonstrated.
What do you think will, or should happen next ?
My case is not overwhelmingly positive because I have always recognised that there are many good things about the EU to offset the bad. It was a fairly closely balanced decision for me, not least because I liked Cameron and Osborne's leadership. Anyone suggesting that this is clear cut good or bad, black or white has simply not engaged their brain and falls to be ignored.
I did like Stewart's comments about John Curtice. He said that popular opinion used to bell shaped but was now U shaped with almost everyone having left the middle for the extremes. We need to get back there.
And yet as forgive me I keep on pointing out, you voted for precisely this situation.
And you are of course one of the more sane, thoughtful Leavers (and one, an even rarer phenomenon, this) that hasn't fucked off and left the UK after voting Leave.
Or was urging us to leave whilst all along being thousands of miles away themselves, like a fair few here on PB.
Johnson losing Uxbridge is not going to happen. It's a Leave area and there is no third party vote for Labour to squeeze, They maxed out in 2017 and Johnson still won comfortably. The one to watch is IDS. There was a very small Remain majority in Chingford and Woodford Green, there is still an LD and Green vote for Labour to tap into and the Tory vote has been in decline there since 2010. I suspect that Johnson as PM will finally cost the Quiet Man his seat.
This is a loose comment.
Whilst it's true that those of us who have seen through the magician's sleight of hand need to check our subjective wishes, your remark is loose.
There's no rationale or evidence that Labour have 'maxed out.' There's no such thing. And the assumption that because Uxbridge voted Leave it means all those voters will vote for Boris is a long way further than 'loose.'
Much will of course depend on the national picture. If PM Boris is as awful as Foreign Secretary Boris then the honeymoon will be short-lived. Like Mike Smithson and many others on here, I think Boris is fatally flawed with a deeply defective personality and he will sooner or later come a cropper. We shall see if he drags the country down with him.
The net Cons to Labour swing in Uxbridge from 2015 to 2017 exceeded national and London averages at 13%. A repeat next time puts him in a parlous state, even without the ongoing demographic changes and Brexit shambles.
What is incontrovertible is that Boris attracts a great deal of hatred. My tory voting brother who lives in London has not a single kind word to say for Boris. So alongside the incumbency pull you mention, he will also attract the opposite. I have LibDem friends who say they will vote Labour to decapitate him. I'm not sure why you suggest decapitation doesn't work when it clearly does: Chris Patten, Nick Clegg come to mind as most prominent but there are many other examples.
The other reason, though, for suggesting your post is loose is the Brexit Party. If they put up a half-decent candidate, perhaps even Farage himself, I can see Boris having a big problem.
I think Boris will lose Uxbridge.
I don't think Nick Clegg was a case of decapitation.
Given the anti Lib Dems vote in 2015 he should have been sunk in that tsunami, but survived due to Tories lending him their votes. The opposite of decapitation he was given a life vest. In 2017 the Tory vote returned to the Tories and he lost. The Labour vote rose less in Sheffield Hallam in 2017 than it did nationally.
Just heard Owen Paterson supporting Bozza’s higher rate tax plan by saying the band was catching teachers and police officers when it used to be for the very well off.
Some thoughts:
- in 1990... probably the last set by woolly pinko tax raiser Lawson... the threshold was £20,700 plus £3k personal allowance which equates to £53k now (pretty close to where we are).
- a teacher on either the main or upper scale can’t earn £50k. Indeed, the first ten points of the leadership scale are under £50k.
- police scales for PCs and sergeants don’t get there... so it only applies to inspectors +
These people really sound like they believe most of their target voters will benefit (or maybe 4 million higher rate taxpayers is a decent Tory target nowadays?)
They will argue that it also helps people to aspire to earn more and work harder and longer!
If it was at 30k and actually a "tax on the middle class", and/or the upper rate was still 95%, I'd have some sympathy.
If you're already earning 48k and you're umming and erring whether you should earn any more because of a *marginal* rate of 40pc, go and give your head a wobble.
Our incomes are taxed at utterly paltry levels compared to even ten years ago given the increase in the personal allowance. To target any further reduction at the richest 10 per cent of the population is the ultimate "metropolitan elite" policy... and those pretending to despise that elite should be very careful or they'll end up alienating both ends of their potential support.
Sky confirm that the US navy are assisting tankers in the Gulf of Oman as crews evacuate after attacks that are rumoured to be by torpedos. Sky saying not confirmed but if so massive crisis looms as the finger is being pointed at Iran.
Oil rising and real fears for world trade
Why would Iran torpedo tankers?
Because the Ayatollahs have torpedoes?
It follows on from the recent limpet mine attacks.
Johnson losing Uxbridge is not going to happen. It's a Leave area and there is no third party vote for Labour to squeeze, They maxed out in 2017 and Johnson still won comfortably. The one to watch is IDS. There was a very small Remain majority in Chingford and Woodford Green, there is still an LD and Green vote for Labour to tap into and the Tory vote has been in decline there since 2010. I suspect that Johnson as PM will finally cost the Quiet Man his seat.
Yet Uxbridge, like most of Outer London, is changing fast. Its population is increasing by over 1.5% (+5,000 people) per year. Every year 1% of the population total switches from white to BAME: the White British population will shortly drop to 40% having been 43% in 2017, 48% in 2011 and 73% in 2001.
And it will also have had a significant reduction in home ownership.
Of all the Conservative contenders Boris is the one who should realise the risks uncontrolled immigration and falling home ownership has to Conservative prospects.
Ownership (at 2011) is still around 62%, which is probably high for London but fell from the high 60s ten years earlier. Private rented is about 18% having risen from around 10% over ten years. Not as dramatic a change as I saw in East London.
This is a great piece, hard to disagree with any part, thanks for writing it. One thing I don't understand - and I mean this literally not rhetorically - is how anybody can see Johnson as in any way qualified to be Prime Minister of this country. Genuinely, it completely baffles me.
"How can this person be foerign secretary?" was what most people outside the UK were thinking as was given that post. His actions in that role showed that this scepticism was well founded.
Something that makes his current popularity even more perplexing. He had an important job only a year or two ago, and completely messed it up.
Johnson losing Uxbridge is not going to happen. It's a Leave area and there is no third party vote for Labour to squeeze, They maxed out in 2017 and Johnson still won comfortably. The one to watch is IDS. There was a very small Remain majority in Chingford and Woodford Green, there is still an LD and Green vote for Labour to tap into and the Tory vote has been in decline there since 2010. I suspect that Johnson as PM will finally cost the Quiet Man his seat.
This is a loose comment.
Whilst it's true that those of us who have seen through the magician's sleight of hand need to check our subjective wishes, your remark is loose.
There's no rationale or evidence that Labour have 'maxed out.' There's no such thing. And the assumption that because Uxbridge voted Leave it means all those voters will vote for Boris is a long way further than 'loose.'
Much will of course depend on the national picture. If PM Boris is as awful as Foreign Secretary Boris then the honeymoon will be short-lived. Like Mike Smithson and many others on here, I think Boris is fatally flawed with a deeply defective personality and he will sooner or later come a cropper. We shall see if he drags the country down with him.
The net Cons to Labour swing in Uxbridge from 2015 to 2017 exceeded national and London averages at 13%. A repeat next time puts him in a parlous state, even without the ongoing demographic changes and Brexit shambles.
What is incontrovertible is that Boris attracts a great deal of hatred. My tory voting brother who lives in London has not a single kind word to say for Boris. So alongside the incumbency pull you mention, he will also attract the opposite. I have LibDem friends who say they will vote Labour to decapitate him. I'm not sure why you suggest decapitation doesn't work when it clearly does: Chris Patten, Nick Clegg come to mind as most prominent but there are many other examples.
The other reason, though, for suggesting your post is loose is the Brexit Party. If they put up a half-decent candidate, perhaps even Farage himself, I can see Boris having a big problem.
I think Boris will lose Uxbridge.
I don't rule anything out during the current unpleasantness, but I think Labour will struggle to grow with a still-murky policy on Brexit and seemingly-Corbynite candidate. It seems an unlikely pitch for LibDems and Greens (who are very much in the minority in any case) to lend their votes.
And while I guess the biggest chance of an upset is the Brexit Party putting in a high-profile candidate and splitting the leave vote, Boris is probably as immune to that as any Tory could be.
Regardless of what approach one takes to the EU, why would you want a known incompetent (and not a chap renowned for keeping to commitments) in charge of delivering it?
Sky confirm that the US navy are assisting tankers in the Gulf of Oman as crews evacuate after attacks that are rumoured to be by torpedos. Sky saying not confirmed but if so massive crisis looms as the finger is being pointed at Iran.
Johnson losing Uxbridge is not going to happen. It's a Leave area and there is no third party vote for Labour to squeeze, They maxed out in 2017 and Johnson still won comfortably. The one to watch is IDS. There was a very small Remain majority in Chingford and Woodford Green, there is still an LD and Green vote for Labour to tap into and the Tory vote has been in decline there since 2010. I suspect that Johnson as PM will finally cost the Quiet Man his seat.
Yet Uxbridge, like most of Outer London, is changing fast. Its population is increasing by over 1.5% (+5,000 people) per year. Every year 1% of the population total switches from white to BAME: the White British population will shortly drop to 40% having been 43% in 2017, 48% in 2011 and 73% in 2001.
And it will also have had a significant reduction in home ownership.
Of all the Conservative contenders Boris is the one who should realise the risks uncontrolled immigration and falling home ownership has to Conservative prospects.
He probably thinks falling home ownership means people now own 3 homes instead of 4. Which may well be the case for some of the rentier class he hangs out with.
This is a great piece, hard to disagree with any part, thanks for writing it. One thing I don't understand - and I mean this literally not rhetorically - is how anybody can see Johnson as in any way qualified to be Prime Minister of this country. Genuinely, it completely baffles me.
"How can this person be foerign secretary?" was what most people outside the UK were thinking as was given that post. His actions in that role showed that this scepticism was well founded.
Something that makes his current popularity even more perplexing. He had an important job only a year or two ago, and completely messed it up.
Same with Raab who flopped when he actually was Brexit Secretary but is now seen by the ERG as the man to lead us to the sunlit uplands, possibly via Dover.
Ah those terrible immigrants eh? I won't mention fascism and divisive politics of the extreme right, but it is important to mention Brexit will only affect immigration if it turns us, as seems likely, into an economic basketcase where no one wants to come anymore as there are no prospects. Even I don't believe it will be that bad. Anyway, EU immigration only made for 50% of the immigration. The rest we had/have full control of. First argument in favour of Brexit completely shot down. Still waiting for a defensible argument in favour of the madness.
Ah those terrible immigrants eh? I won't mention fascism and divisive politics of the extreme right, but it is important to mention Brexit will only affect immigration if it turns us, as seems likely, into an economic basketcase where no one wants to come anymore as there are no prospects. Even I don't believe it will be that bad. Anyway, EU immigration only made for 50% of the immigration. The rest we had/have full control of. First argument in favour of Brexit completely shot down. Still waiting for a defensible argument in favour of the madness.
If your conclusion from reading that is I think immigrants are terrible, then you are beyond repair
Because I do not like the European project. I do not like more and more of our decisions being taken in an undemocratic structure by people we have no right to remove. I want my politicians to be accountable, to decide how we spend our own money, what our own priorities are. I do not approve of the gradual downgrading of the nation state. I see that as the objective of the project and the Euro as the main means of achieving this. Once national politicians are accountable for how much money is spent and what it is spent on they really are local government. I see the EZ being increasingly dominant inside the EU and pressure to join it over time. I think policy will evolve to favour the EZ bloc with its QMV to our detriment. I get it that some like our own Mr Glenn see these as a desirable end state, I don't.
None of this means that I want any unnecessary disruption in trade with the EU. I also accept that if you are going to have free unregulated trade you need common standards and regulatory equivalence at least in internationally traded goods. I accept that complete independence is a ridiculous fantasy. Cooperation on a bilateral state basis is a good thing not a trap. My objective is a UK that has a close relationship with the EU, works together on common problems but is that bit apart and has the freedom to choose its own path, recognising that such choices are not free and have consequences.
For me May's deal was and is a possible solution to this. Other solutions may exist but that is the one we have and time is pressing. A trade agreement built on the bones of that WA is likely to meet my objectives, modest as they are. As I have said on here before our relationship with the EU will always continue to evolve as it has throughout our membership. None of these choices are forever, not even leaving if the British people chose to go back in years to come. But right now we chose to leave and our political class should honour that choice.
As someone who was a reluctant remainer I agree with a fair bit of that. If that was the Brexit narrative being pursued it would have been delivered. Instead Brexiteers have outdone each other to prove they are the purest and hardest and we are left with the political class pandering to the lunacies of Francois, Rees-Mogg and McVey.
All Brexiteers had to do was nudge very slightly to welcome plenty of reluctant remainers across into the fold. Instead we have been told we are citizens of nowhere and have had to listen to nonsense about trade from people who have no idea on the subject for the last 3 years. Brexit has just become a way for people to express their anger about the EU, lack of control and foreigners rather than a plan with a destination.
Ah those terrible immigrants eh? I won't mention fascism and divisive politics of the extreme right, but it is important to mention Brexit will only affect immigration if it turns us, as seems likely, into an economic basketcase where no one wants to come anymore as there are no prospects. Even I don't believe it will be that bad. Anyway, EU immigration only made for 50% of the immigration. The rest we had/have full control of. First argument in favour of Brexit completely shot down. Still waiting for a defensible argument in favour of the madness.
If your conclusion from reading that is I think immigrants are terrible, then you are beyond repair
Given that he's a longstanding Conservative member Nigel Foremain is presumably a supporter of reducing net immigration to below 100,000 per year.
If the Tories do not commit to deliver Brexit they will be overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right it is as simple as that. No Deal Brexit would create difficulties and is certainly not as ideal a scenario as Brexit with a Deal but it would not produce the existential crisis for the Tories of failing to deliver Brexit at all
Comments
I expect that trend to continue if we really do leave with No Deal.
Its like when people got outraged about May making a joke about boy jobs and girl jobs re taking out the rubbish bins etc when interviewed with her husband. Some people really acted like she was saying women couldn't do some things, were lesser, as she sat there as leader of this country!
The plans of most candidates will take one phone call to see if negotiations can reopen, so there's no time concern.
No doubt the top contenders will secure at least some of the votes of those backing those making an early exit, but for those who really dont like the top candidates theres no harm transferring in a way to keep as many in the race as possible, or voting that way initially.
“I have 4 beautiful children from my marriage to Marina, and as people already know I have a daughter from another relationship. But that’s not what people in the country care about - Brexit blah blah”
It doesn’t answer the question but sounds like it does.
Any follow up gets “this is not a discussion about my personal life, we are talking about X”
Mps are cynical folk I am sure, they arent going to be swayed en masse by low rated candidates at this point.
Or are the Conservative contenders still in denial about how much the student debt issue is damaging both to the country and in particular to future Conservative prospects ?
DavidL puts forward a principled case earlier in this thread, but it's not exactly overwhelmingly positive, and was probably not one which would have won the referendum.
There seem to have been several different motivations for voting for Brexit, which are not entirely compatible with each other - as the past couple of years have demonstrated.
What do you think will, or should happen next ?
This time: sponsors lent to Andrea Leadsom.
Last time: May supporters voting for Gove to beat Leadsom.
Time before: Cameron supporters voting for Davis over Fox.
No proof but solid rumours. Call it tactical voting if you prefer.
This takes on a whole new context ....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IPsSzLnXJkg
(And, Peter, you can buy fipronil without a prescription these days - far cheaper)
I did like Stewart's comments about John Curtice. He said that popular opinion used to bell shaped but was now U shaped with almost everyone having left the middle for the extremes. We need to get back there.
The article is good, like all Cyclefree's pieces, and plenty of text is fine when it's good text - I'm always disappointed when I find the PB lead is just two paragraphs, though I know it's hard to do a big article every time. To be fair, the civil service has been working hard on immediate post-Brexit mitigation. What I'm genuinely unclear about is whether they've mapped out choices for the way forward after the first few months.
Some Tories are dim, but most are not that dim. They know perfectly well that they face a threat to their very existence both if they fail to deliver Brexit and if they succeed in doing so. They only have to look at Corbyn carefully positioning himself and Labour to have clean hands whatever the outcome. If Corbyn thought there was a reliable good outcome he would be backing it.
The Tories are in the unhappy position of a punter who is obliged to stake the farm and all he possesses on the 1967 Grand National, and they know it. We know there is going to be a pile up. What we don't know is who or what is today's Foinavon.
'If in doubt go for the boring safe pair of hands' was the idea that brought us Mrs May. I think this adds greatly to the likelihood that Boris, the only candidate with charisma, will be the jockey who gets to choose the horse; his odds I think are too long at the moment.
Some thoughts:
- in 1990... probably the last set by woolly pinko tax raiser Lawson... the threshold was £20,700 plus £3k personal allowance which equates to £53k now (pretty close to where we are).
- a teacher on either the main or upper scale can’t earn £50k. Indeed, the first ten points of the leadership scale are under £50k.
- police scales for PCs and sergeants don’t get there... so it only applies to inspectors +
These people really sound like they believe most of their target voters will benefit (or maybe 4 million higher rate taxpayers is a decent Tory target nowadays?)
There are no reasons why it might be a good thing for them if it happened.
Who are pretty well off.
http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.com/?m=1
I’ve no real desire to write one, and wasn’t touting for business. I rarely read the thread headers as they always seem so repetitively condescending towards the idea of Leave when I do. It would make a change if someone made the case for respecting the referendum result though, it’s not that much of a niche opinion
Breaking
Sky confirm that the US navy are assisting tankers in the Gulf of Oman as crews evacuate after attacks that are rumoured to be by torpedos. Sky saying not confirmed but if so massive crisis looms as the finger is being pointed at Iran.
Oil rising and real fears for world trade
All the Tory MPs are busy right now, anyway.
Of all the Conservative contenders Boris is the one who should realise the risks uncontrolled immigration and falling home ownership has to Conservative prospects.
Beautiful typo! 🤣
This kind of polling doesn't really tell you very much - except that the public isn't very keen on Gove.
You'd have thought they had children and grandchildren, though. I assume not all Tory members just pay for their kids university education upfront.
And you are of course one of the more sane, thoughtful Leavers (and one, an even rarer phenomenon, this) that hasn't fucked off and left the UK after voting Leave.
Whilst it's true that those of us who have seen through the magician's sleight of hand need to check our subjective wishes, your remark is loose.
There's no rationale or evidence that Labour have 'maxed out.' There's no such thing. And the assumption that because Uxbridge voted Leave it means all those voters will vote for Boris is a long way further than 'loose.'
Much will of course depend on the national picture. If PM Boris is as awful as Foreign Secretary Boris then the honeymoon will be short-lived. Like Mike Smithson and many others on here, I think Boris is fatally flawed with a deeply defective personality and he will sooner or later come a cropper. We shall see if he drags the country down with him.
The net Cons to Labour swing in Uxbridge from 2015 to 2017 exceeded national and London averages at 13%. A repeat next time puts him in a parlous state, even without the ongoing demographic changes and Brexit shambles.
What is incontrovertible is that Boris attracts a great deal of hatred. My tory voting brother who lives in London has not a single kind word to say for Boris. So alongside the incumbency pull you mention, he will also attract the opposite. I have LibDem friends who say they will vote Labour to decapitate him. I'm not sure why you suggest decapitation doesn't work when it clearly does: Chris Patten, Nick Clegg come to mind as most prominent but there are many other examples.
The other reason, though, for suggesting your post is loose is the Brexit Party. If they put up a half-decent candidate, perhaps even Farage himself, I can see Boris having a big problem.
I think Boris will lose Uxbridge.
I don't 100% agree (I think the undemocratic nature of the backstop is a deal breaker) but almost completely do.
Which is why we are where we are, even if that might be the Brexit most in the country would be happiest (or least unhappy) with.
Oh and happy First Round Thursday PB
Given the anti Lib Dems vote in 2015 he should have been sunk in that tsunami, but survived due to Tories lending him their votes. The opposite of decapitation he was given a life vest. In 2017 the Tory vote returned to the Tories and he lost. The Labour vote rose less in Sheffield Hallam in 2017 than it did nationally.
If you're already earning 48k and you're umming and erring whether you should earn any more because of a *marginal* rate of 40pc, go and give your head a wobble.
Our incomes are taxed at utterly paltry levels compared to even ten years ago given the increase in the personal allowance. To target any further reduction at the richest 10 per cent of the population is the ultimate "metropolitan elite" policy... and those pretending to despise that elite should be very careful or they'll end up alienating both ends of their potential support.
It follows on from the recent limpet mine attacks.
http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.com/2014/08/mass-immigration-stealth-tax-on-working.html
And while I guess the biggest chance of an upset is the Brexit Party putting in a high-profile candidate and splitting the leave vote, Boris is probably as immune to that as any Tory could be.
Regardless of what approach one takes to the EU, why would you want a known incompetent (and not a chap renowned for keeping to commitments) in charge of delivering it?
But from Nigel "pick up a rifle and head for the front lines" Farage, it loses its sting a little.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1feCjt98HJcY9tlc5Zx78ZoSOC2fN-j0vRVFD5eUTbUE/edit#gid=0
Stephen McPartland and Andrew Percy are late endorsements for Boris:
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/tory-leadership-contest-boris-johnson-given-new-boost-by-european-delivery-group-as-tory-mps-began-a4166281.html
All Brexiteers had to do was nudge very slightly to welcome plenty of reluctant remainers across into the fold. Instead we have been told we are citizens of nowhere and have had to listen to nonsense about trade from people who have no idea on the subject for the last 3 years. Brexit has just become a way for people to express their anger about the EU, lack of control and foreigners rather than a plan with a destination.