Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Get ready for the Betrayals Ahead
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Get ready for the Betrayals Ahead
There is a political divide in Britain. No, not that one. But one between those seeing Brexit as an end in itself and those for whom it is a means to an end. The former seems to comprise most of the Tory party. The candidates for leader seem to agree. “We must do Brexit” they cry. In some cases, one suspects it is said with all the sincerity of a certain type of English middle class woman on holiday in a favoured part of Europe mwah-mwah-ing the nice couple she’s met saying “Let’s do lunch!” while secretly hoping it never happens.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
All of which made me think that no government would do it, but then I watched the Ken Burns documentary on Vietnam, where right from the start, all the people responsible can see that they have no workable plan and it's all likely to go horribly wrong, yet still get sucked into it by the short-term political logic...
It does seem as if the total and final humiliation of the Conservative party - and Boris Johnson - will be part of the Brexit they have inflicted on us. That is the one silver lining in all of this.
There is little sign of recognition that Brexit is the start of a process, not an end in itself; the beginning of negotiations rather than the end. And even those who do acknowledge that point give little sign of their intended destination. They do not seem to have asked themselves why, for instance, Nigel Farage wants to be on the negotiation team if there is nothing to negotiate.
Kiss hands.
Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
Win election.
But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
Peerage.
Brexit is easy to understand and difficult to resolve.
Revocation / status quo. Leaves all the issues that drove us to have a referendum and vote to leave in place. It would be an unattractive and fractious result.
No deal is fraught with down sides
Fully in Europe single currency etc is by far the most coherent remain option, and possibly workable long term compared to revocation.
A deal is great, but we can't agree on one.
Our sensible options appear to be reduced to fully in or no deal to get fully out, but no deal has to be accompanied by a series of deals to make it work, which may well end up similar to the deal on offer now, but the presentation and packaging is different.
Who takes over as leader then ?
Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?
Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?
I reckon roughly the following
Boris to win @ 65%
Lose VONC @ 50%
Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%
I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?
Squeaky bum time for the Leadsom layers, and probably everyone else. I've backed someone or other to receive fewest votes, but can't for the life of me remember who.
There is no law saying that a PM must be in Parliament. A PM outside Parliament has happened fairly recently, albeit briefly, in 1963. I think if he won the election overall he would be given time to find a seat while remaining PM.
The most doubtful part is Nigel Farage standing against the PM, and costing the seat. Boris's majority last time was only 5,000 so he'd be vulnerable but we cannot rely on Farage to do the right thing.
I don’t believe that the PM technically needs to be in the Commons. So he’d find some safe seat, give the MP a peerage and win the by election... what could go wrong
I think the extremes - Stewart and McVey - will do better than expected. The former because pro-Remain MPs will want to keep him in the contest and continue to attract attention, the latter because I suspect the more hardline Brexit MPs will want to keep someone in the contest to ensure Boris isn't tempted to slide.
First one out - Harper the obvious one, possibly Leadsom (although she may get backers who want to keep her as a fallback if Boris explodes), Hancock possibly if his backers switch to Stewart to boost the latter's numbers.
I think that would have cost him the Chancellorship had he not found another seat during the same election.
He was a young whippersnapper back then so was probably involved
This last happened in October 1963 when The Earl of Home became Prime Minister, then disclaimed his peerages and as Sir Alec Douglas Home, outwith either house of parliament was Prime Minister until he won the Kinross and West Perthshire by-election in November.
I think she should call for SeanT.
One thing I don't understand - and I mean this literally not rhetorically - is how anybody can see Johnson as in any way qualified to be Prime Minister of this country. Genuinely, it completely baffles me.
And I have talked to him, briefly, so I can confirm myself that he does not exude some special magic in the flesh that is absent on television.
I suppose the general election argument on its own shows a Minister doesn't have to be an MP. Patrick Gordon Walker was Foreign Secretary for four months while outside Parliament in 1964-65. It is a question really of whether the Commons would agree to a Queen's Speech effectively written by somebody they couldn't grill over it. Instinct says it could work, but only for a very short time - two months at most, perhaps.
And it's possible he has a number of children outside wedlock as well.
Have a good morning.
"The people of our nation are all my children. If Andrea may be said to be the "Mother of the Nation" then I ... Boris will be "Father of the Nation" .....
The Daily Mirror Headline :
"Boris - Britain's Dead Beat Dad"
I think Boris would hold Uxbridge comfortably, as leader.
Betfair's pretty thin market on who will get fewest votes (Ladbrokes offers the same bet iirc) has:
Harper 1.7
McVey 3.45 (might be lent support to keep women in, and should be able to rely on her husband's mates at least in the first round)
Rory 8.4 (said to be attracting support only from non-Tories: this will test that)
Leadsom 10.5 (see McVey re women, and Boris might want to keep her in as a counterweight to Raab on his right but had to be lent sponsors even to get this far)
Hancock 12.5 (might lose supporters after his unanimously-panned launch)
A fiver would massively disrupt the market though. The problem is that whoever of those came last, it would be easy to rationalise after the event.
I can’t see her topping 30.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1139060640558014466
Indeed as I indicated yesterday there is a prospect that Boris and Hunt hoover up around 200 votes and the others pull out and we get to the final two by close of play today.
I got Hancock at 20/1 to go out first on Ladbrokes.
I can’t see her topping 30.
It's too easy to say Gove will struggle so I'm opting for Rabb to bomb - 25-30 votes.
https://www.politico.eu/article/outgoing-uk-diplomat-slams-chaotic-politics-and-brexit-shambles/
The outgoing British high commissioner to Singapore has warned that the Asian city-state's leaders are "baffled by the U.K.'s chaotic politics" and that Brexit is doing lasting damage to the U.K.'s reputation.
In a devastating assessment of the damage Brexit is doing to the U.K.'s global reputation, Scott Wightman, one of the country's most senior diplomats, said major investors told him the balance of future investment in Europe "will inevitably be weighted more towards Germany and France," with post-referendum political risk now their "principle consideration."...
Because I do not like the European project. I do not like more and more of our decisions being taken in an undemocratic structure by people we have no right to remove. I want my politicians to be accountable, to decide how we spend our own money, what our own priorities are. I do not approve of the gradual downgrading of the nation state. I see that as the objective of the project and the Euro as the main means of achieving this. Once national politicians are accountable for how much money is spent and what it is spent on they really are local government. I see the EZ being increasingly dominant inside the EU and pressure to join it over time. I think policy will evolve to favour the EZ bloc with its QMV to our detriment. I get it that some like our own Mr Glenn see these as a desirable end state, I don't.
None of this means that I want any unnecessary disruption in trade with the EU. I also accept that if you are going to have free unregulated trade you need common standards and regulatory equivalence at least in internationally traded goods. I accept that complete independence is a ridiculous fantasy. Cooperation on a bilateral state basis is a good thing not a trap. My objective is a UK that has a close relationship with the EU, works together on common problems but is that bit apart and has the freedom to choose its own path, recognising that such choices are not free and have consequences.
For me May's deal was and is a possible solution to this. Other solutions may exist but that is the one we have and time is pressing. A trade agreement built on the bones of that WA is likely to meet my objectives, modest as they are. As I have said on here before our relationship with the EU will always continue to evolve as it has throughout our membership. None of these choices are forever, not even leaving if the British people chose to go back in years to come. But right now we chose to leave and our political class should honour that choice.
Agree Raab might be interesting - both Steve Hawkes and Dan Hodges suggested his hopes are fading fast.
Jack always surprises on the upside.
‘I think I’d take it’: Trump says he might not report foreign help to FBI in 2020
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/12/trump-fbi-foreign-information-1362788
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/06/trump-says-hed-accept-foreign-electoral-aid/591577/
I worried some weeks later on this site about the political and institutional risks of proceeding down that path. But Trump himself gets a vote; Trump himself forces the hands even of those who might wish to restrain the hand. He is such an institution wrecker—his instincts are so lawless—that he may simply refuse to allow Congress not to impeach him.
Confessing a willingness to collaborate with foreign spies against his domestic political opponents is a hand-forcing move. The risks of proceeding are still there. But the risks of not proceeding? Trump just forced us all to confront them in the most aggressively public possible way....
Rory could easily bomb if it turns out none of the people he canvassed at Kew Gardens or the Lake District or that coffee shop in Barking are actually Conservative MPs who can vote in this election.
"We Want Boris And We Don't Care"
Having said which, I do hope he makes it through. I think he'd be a very useful addition to the Channel 4 debate.
Usual numerous caveats apply, but you'd think the people of London would know Johnson best.
That people are now demanding the most extreme exits and many support any action so long as they get that, like prorogation, means while I would be a bitter and unhappy remainer, and wanted us to be out by now, things have moved on and we had our chance.
Sadly it's the better option given the failure of the last three years.