Johnson losing Uxbridge is not going to happen. It's a Leave area and there is no third party vote for Labour to squeeze, They maxed out in 2017 and Johnson still won comfortably. The one to watch is IDS. There was a very small Remain majority in Chingford and Woodford Green, there is still an LD and Green vote for Labour to tap into and the Tory vote has been in decline there since 2010. I suspect that Johnson as PM will finally cost the Quiet Man his seat.
This is a loose comment.
Whilst it's true that those of us who have seen through the magician's sleight of hand need to check our subjective wishes, your remark is loose.
There's no rationale or evidence that Labour have 'maxed out.' There's no such thing. And the assumption that because Uxbridge voted Leave it means all those voters will vote for Boris is a long way further than 'loose.'
Much will of course depend on the national picture. If PM Boris is as awful as Foreign Secretary Boris then the honeymoon will be short-lived. Like Mike Smithson and many others on here, I think Boris is fatally flawed with a deeply defective personality and he will sooner or later come a cropper. We shall see if he drags the country down with him.
The net Cons to Labour swing in Uxbridge from 2015 to 2017 exceeded national and London averages at 13%. A repeat next time puts him in a parlous state, even without the ongoing demographic changes and Brexit shambles.
What is incontrovertible is that Boris attracts a great deal of hatred. My tory voting brother who lives in London has not a single kind word to say for Boris. So alongside the incumbency pull you mention, he will also attract the opposite. I have LibDem friends who say they will vote Labour to decapitate him. I'm not sure why you suggest decapitation doesn't work when it clearly does: Chris Patten, Nick Clegg come to mind as most prominent but there are many other examples.
The other reason, though, for suggesting your post is loose is the Brexit Party. If they put up a half-decent candidate, perhaps even Farage himself, I can see Boris having a big problem.
I think Boris will lose Uxbridge.
On current polling Boris will won an overall majority and hold Uxbridge easily.
Boris only loses Uxbridge if Corbyn wins an overall majority, in which case I doubt whether he cares if he holds Uxbridge anyway
Ah those terrible immigrants eh? I won't mention fascism and divisive politics of the extreme right, but it is important to mention Brexit will only affect immigration if it turns us, as seems likely, into an economic basketcase where no one wants to come anymore as there are no prospects. Even I don't believe it will be that bad. Anyway, EU immigration only made for 50% of the immigration. The rest we had/have full control of. First argument in favour of Brexit completely shot down. Still waiting for a defensible argument in favour of the madness.
If your conclusion from reading that is I think immigrants are terrible, then you are beyond repair
Given that he's a longstanding Conservative member Nigel Foremain is presumably a supporter of reducing net immigration to below 100,000 per year.
Conservative policy is surely to increase immigration while blaming those beastly Europeans (and sometimes Tony Blair). Non-EU immigration (so nothing to do with Brussels or FOM) rose under Cameron and May.
If you have to tack towards you’re rivals policies to avoid wipe out leaving behind your principles and a large slice of your traditional support is it really worth it?
Because I do not like the European project. I do not like more and more of our decisions being taken in an undemocratic structure by people we have no right to remove. I want my politicians to be accountable, to decide how we spend our own money, what our own priorities are. I do not approve of the gradual downgrading of the nation state. I see that as the objective of the project and the Euro as the main means of achieving this. Once national politicians are accountable for how much money is spent and what it is spent on they really are local government. I see the EZ being increasingly dominant inside the EU and pressure to join it over time. I think policy will evolve to favour the EZ bloc with its QMV to our detriment. I get it that some like our own Mr Glenn see these as a desirable end state, I don't.
For me May's deal was and is a possible solution to this. Other solutions may exist but that is the one we have and time is pressing. A trade agreement built on the bones of that WA is likely to meet my objectives, modest as they are. As I have said on here before our relationship with the EU will always continue to evolve as it has throughout our membership. None of these choices are forever, not even leaving if the British people chose to go back in years to come. But right now we chose to leave and our political class should honour that choice.
As someone who was a reluctant remainer I agree with a fair bit of that. If that was the Brexit narrative being pursued it would have been delivered. Instead Brexiteers have outdone each other to prove they are the purest and hardest and we are left with the political class pandering to the lunacies of Francois, Rees-Mogg and McVey.
All Brexiteers had to do was nudge very slightly to welcome plenty of reluctant remainers across into the fold. Instead we have been told we are citizens of nowhere and have had to listen to nonsense about trade from people who have no idea on the subject for the last 3 years. Brexit has just become a way for people to express their anger about the EU, lack of control and foreigners rather than a plan with a destination.
Few Conservative MPs seem to have given much thought as to what Brexit would amount to until the last six months.
Sky confirm that the US navy are assisting tankers in the Gulf of Oman as crews evacuate after attacks that are rumoured to be by torpedos. Sky saying not confirmed but if so massive crisis looms as the finger is being pointed at Iran.
I don't normally think 40/1 candidates are value lays, but why is Tulsi Gabbard persistently below 50 on Betfair for the Dem nomination? She's doing virtually nothing right, has no obvious constituency of voters, and the last 5 national polls are mostly 0%s!
Leadsom is clearly being manipulated by someone for their own ends, but I agree Gove shouldn't be this much longer than Hunt. Longer, sure. But three times? Nah. I'd make him maybe 15 if Hunt is 8-10.
If the Tories do not commit to deliver Brexit they will be overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right it is as simple as that. No Deal Brexit would create difficulties and is certainly not as ideal a scenario as Brexit with a Deal but it would not produce the existential crisis for the Tories of failing to deliver Brexit at all
Probably we will leave on something like Theresa May's terms but tweaked so everyone can save face. A far longer transition period before the dreaded backstop, perhaps to allow technological solutions, and removal of May's red lines round FOM. It gives all three sides cover.
If the Tories do not commit to deliver Brexit they will be overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right it is as simple as that. No Deal Brexit would create difficulties and is certainly not as ideal a scenario as Brexit with a Deal but it would not produce the existential crisis for the Tories of failing to deliver Brexit at all
Given the reputation of Boris as an untrustworthy incompetent, I suspect he may be bumbling towards what he perceives to be an achievable Brexit conclusion.
Leave with no Deal - Right of the Conservatives are happy, Nigel has to visit the vets to be neutered.
However, leaving with No Deal means that we have to implement Deals to continue trade, life and maintain good relationships etc. Doing this will cause ripples on the now satisfied right but begin to soothe the discontented Europhile wing of the electorate.
Following a No Deal strategy may be the only way to be all things to all men, given that accepting any agreement appears to be beyond the ability of parliament.
Once No Deal is done the deals become far easier to implement.
Boris is nothing if not inventive, and I suspect he is remarkably pragmatic where success and popularity are concerned as opposed to rigidly ideological.
Boris 86 Hunt 36 Gove 35 Javid 19 Hancock 16 Harper 8, Stewart 7, McVey 6, Leadsom 5
Not much of a race, is it?
It's going to be very close for second place IMO, and I'm not sure Boris will get that many more than 105 in the end which is the minimum to go through.
Sky confirm that the US navy are assisting tankers in the Gulf of Oman as crews evacuate after attacks that are rumoured to be by torpedos. Sky saying not confirmed but if so massive crisis looms as the finger is being pointed at Iran.
Oil rising and real fears for world trade
Why would Iran torpedo tankers?
Seems crazy but that is the report by Sky
The report says oil prices heading higher. Let me guess. Iran has played the oil market on an expectation of higher oil prices - due to the very uncertainty they have caused.
And if Saudi wanted to mess them up, then they could say they were going to pump a couple more million barrels a day.
I do wonder if Iran is going for broke, given their continuing plan to build the Bomb has provoked Trump into threatening their regime.
Ah those terrible immigrants eh? I won't mention fascism and divisive politics of the extreme right, but it is important to mention Brexit will only affect immigration if it turns us, as seems likely, into an economic basketcase where no one wants to come anymore as there are no prospects. Even I don't believe it will be that bad. Anyway, EU immigration only made for 50% of the immigration. The rest we had/have full control of. First argument in favour of Brexit completely shot down. Still waiting for a defensible argument in favour of the madness.
If your conclusion from reading that is I think immigrants are terrible, then you are beyond repair
Given that he's a longstanding Conservative member Nigel Foremain is presumably a supporter of reducing net immigration to below 100,000 per year.
Conservative policy is surely to increase immigration while blaming those beastly Europeans (and sometimes Tony Blair). Non-EU immigration (so nothing to do with Brussels or FOM) rose under Cameron and May.
What the Conservatives have been doing in government has often been the opposite of what their stated objectives are, what the public perception is and what is in their own best interests.
I do wonder if they have any idea as to what they are doing.
Sky confirm that the US navy are assisting tankers in the Gulf of Oman as crews evacuate after attacks that are rumoured to be by torpedos. Sky saying not confirmed but if so massive crisis looms as the finger is being pointed at Iran.
Oil rising and real fears for world trade
I’m in Oman today!
I think even the Iranian Navy could sink a tanker with a torpedo if they really wanted to. They are very big, very slow and highly vulnerable to under the keel cavitation kills which don't even need a direct hit.
I happen to agree with him that it's pretty off-colour.
But from Nigel "pick up a rifle and head for the front lines" Farage, it loses its sting a little.
It was wholly unacceptable and she should face consequences
It depends what the consequences are.
If scorn is poured on her from opponents then I'm with you. If you can't take it then don't dish it out.
However if you're implying some form of formal sanction, investigation or legal action then I say no. If a citizen can't ridicule and imply comedic violence against our all too powerful politicians then we begin the slide toward a situation that should not be contemplated
I recall Kenny Everett bringing the house down when he told the Conservative conference to kick away Michael Foot's walking stick and nuke Moscow.
I don't normally think 40/1 candidates are value lays, but why is Tulsi Gabbard persistently below 50 on Betfair for the Dem nomination? She's doing virtually nothing right, has no obvious constituency of voters, and the last 5 national polls are mostly 0%s!
Sky confirm that the US navy are assisting tankers in the Gulf of Oman as crews evacuate after attacks that are rumoured to be by torpedos. Sky saying not confirmed but if so massive crisis looms as the finger is being pointed at Iran.
Oil rising and real fears for world trade
I’m in Oman today!
I think even the Iranian Navy could sink a tanker with a torpedo if they really wanted to. They are very big, very slow and highly vulnerable to under the keel cavitation kills which don't even need a direct hit.
One of the tankers is reported as suffering a hull breach above the waterline, which doesn't sound much like a torpedo, either.
Sky confirm that the US navy are assisting tankers in the Gulf of Oman as crews evacuate after attacks that are rumoured to be by torpedos. Sky saying not confirmed but if so massive crisis looms as the finger is being pointed at Iran.
Oil rising and real fears for world trade
Why would Iran torpedo tankers?
The same reason they were bombing a Saudi airfield from rebel-held areas of Yemen yesterday. There’s a war going on, and it’s now so bad that Israelis and Saudis are working together to come up with a plan to put Iran back in its box. There’s been a blockade of Qatar (who are funding Iran) by the rest of the Gulf states for about 18 months now.
I happen to agree with him that it's pretty off-colour.
But from Nigel "pick up a rifle and head for the front lines" Farage, it loses its sting a little.
It was wholly unacceptable and she should face consequences
It depends what the consequences are.
If scorn is poured on her from opponents then I'm with you. If you can't take it then don't dish it out.
However if you're implying some form of formal sanction, investigation or legal action then I say no. If a citizen can't ridicule and imply comedic violence against our all too powerful politicians then we begin the slide toward a situation that should not be contemplated
I recall Kenny Everett bringing the house down when he told the Conservative conference to kick away Michael Foot's walking stick and nuke Moscow.
Be careful what you wish for.
Inciting someone to use acid to attack someone else, comedy or otherwise, is a very serious matter and at the very least the BBC should suspend her
I happen to agree with him that it's pretty off-colour.
But from Nigel "pick up a rifle and head for the front lines" Farage, it loses its sting a little.
It was wholly unacceptable and she should face consequences
It depends what the consequences are.
If scorn is poured on her from opponents then I'm with you. If you can't take it then don't dish it out.
However if you're implying some form of formal sanction, investigation or legal action then I say no. If a citizen can't ridicule and imply comedic violence against our all too powerful politicians then we begin the slide toward a situation that should not be contemplated
I recall Kenny Everett bringing the house down when he told the Conservative conference to kick away Michael Foot's walking stick and nuke Moscow.
Be careful what you wish for.
The problem with the Brand joke is that it's a rather more credible incitement to violence than Kenny Everett's bit of off key satire.
The line between comedy and incitement isn't a bright one.
"It depends what the consequences are." That cuts both ways.
If the Tories do not commit to deliver Brexit they will be overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right it is as simple as that. No Deal Brexit would create difficulties and is certainly not as ideal a scenario as Brexit with a Deal but it would not produce the existential crisis for the Tories of failing to deliver Brexit at all
Given the reputation of Boris as an untrustworthy incompetent, I suspect he may be bumbling towards what he perceives to be an achievable Brexit conclusion.
Leave with no Deal - Right of the Conservatives are happy, Nigel has to visit the vets to be neutered.
However, leaving with No Deal means that we have to implement Deals to continue trade, life and maintain good relationships etc. Doing this will cause ripples on the now satisfied right but begin to soothe the discontented Europhile wing of the electorate.
Following a No Deal strategy may be the only way to be all things to all men, given that accepting any agreement appears to be beyond the ability of parliament.
Once No Deal is done the deals become far easier to implement.
Boris is nothing if not inventive, and I suspect he is remarkably pragmatic where success and popularity are concerned as opposed to rigidly ideological.
What you do not understand is No Dealers will never be satisfied. When it comes to continue trade and arrange a deal that will involve us paying billions to the EU in lieu of our exit costs, for that is the only deal that is possible, they will cry betrayal, no surrender and traitor at Boris (or whoever is PM).
Their raison d'etre is not No Deal any more than it was Brexit. Once no deal is achieved their still needs to be a vehicle for the anger, frustration and dislike of the EU and foreigners.
You cannot rationalise or manage fundamentalists. Get into bed with them at your peril.
I happen to agree with him that it's pretty off-colour.
But from Nigel "pick up a rifle and head for the front lines" Farage, it loses its sting a little.
It was wholly unacceptable and she should face consequences
It depends what the consequences are.
If scorn is poured on her from opponents then I'm with you. If you can't take it then don't dish it out.
However if you're implying some form of formal sanction, investigation or legal action then I say no. If a citizen can't ridicule and imply comedic violence against our all too powerful politicians then we begin the slide toward a situation that should not be contemplated
I recall Kenny Everett bringing the house down when he told the Conservative conference to kick away Michael Foot's walking stick and nuke Moscow.
Be careful what you wish for.
Inciting someone to use acid to attack someone else, comedy or otherwise, is a very serious matter and at the very least the BBC should suspend her
BBC also aired the previously-banned Heidi Allen episode of HIGNFY last week. Jo Brand was hosting and a lot of the jokes on that were very off-colour too, some bordering on racist with regard to the royal baby, and quite clearly everyone involved in the show had forgotten about the EU election impartiality rules. The lawyers had no choice but to bin it when they did.
A late boost for Andrea Leadsom from IpsosMori as she is the only Tory leadership contender who has a bigger lead than Boris over Corbyn as preferred PM across the UK. Gove does worst only tieing Corbyn
If you have to tack towards you’re rivals policies to avoid wipe out leaving behind your principles and a large slice of your traditional support is it really worth it?
I happen to agree with him that it's pretty off-colour.
But from Nigel "pick up a rifle and head for the front lines" Farage, it loses its sting a little.
It was wholly unacceptable and she should face consequences
It depends what the consequences are.
If scorn is poured on her from opponents then I'm with you. If you can't take it then don't dish it out.
However if you're implying some form of formal sanction, investigation or legal action then I say no. If a citizen can't ridicule and imply comedic violence against our all too powerful politicians then we begin the slide toward a situation that should not be contemplated
I recall Kenny Everett bringing the house down when he told the Conservative conference to kick away Michael Foot's walking stick and nuke Moscow.
Be careful what you wish for.
Inciting someone to use acid to attack someone else, comedy or otherwise, is a very serious matter and at the very least the BBC should suspend her
If it's comedy it is not a serious matter. No one thought Everett was inciting the Royal Navy and Royal Air Force to start WW III and the same is true of Jo Brand.
Who knew you and Nigel Farage would become snowflakes in the face of Jo Brand's caustic comedy routine.
If the Tories do not commit to deliver Brexit they will be overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right it is as simple as that. No Deal Brexit would create difficulties and is certainly not as ideal a scenario as Brexit with a Deal but it would not produce the existential crisis for the Tories of failing to deliver Brexit at all
Probably we will leave on something like Theresa May's terms but tweaked so everyone can save face. A far longer transition period before the dreaded backstop, perhaps to allow technological solutions, and removal of May's red lines round FOM. It gives all three sides cover.
I suspect the Withdrawal Agreement tweaked may still be the final destination
If the Tories do not commit to deliver Brexit they will be overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right it is as simple as that. No Deal Brexit would create difficulties and is certainly not as ideal a scenario as Brexit with a Deal but it would not produce the existential crisis for the Tories of failing to deliver Brexit at all
Given the reputation of Boris as an untrustworthy incompetent, I suspect he may be bumbling towards what he perceives to be an achievable Brexit conclusion.
Leave with no Deal - Right of the Conservatives are happy, Nigel has to visit the vets to be neutered.
However, leaving with No Deal means that we have to implement Deals to continue trade, life and maintain good relationships etc. Doing this will cause ripples on the now satisfied right but begin to soothe the discontented Europhile wing of the electorate.
Following a No Deal strategy may be the only way to be all things to all men, given that accepting any agreement appears to be beyond the ability of parliament.
Once No Deal is done the deals become far easier to implement.
Boris is nothing if not inventive, and I suspect he is remarkably pragmatic where success and popularity are concerned as opposed to rigidly ideological.
Agreed, even if he does No Deal Boris only wants it as a route to a final Deal
If the Tories do not commit to deliver Brexit they will be overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right it is as simple as that. No Deal Brexit would create difficulties and is certainly not as ideal a scenario as Brexit with a Deal but it would not produce the existential crisis for the Tories of failing to deliver Brexit at all
Probably we will leave on something like Theresa May's terms but tweaked so everyone can save face. A far longer transition period before the dreaded backstop, perhaps to allow technological solutions, and removal of May's red lines round FOM. It gives all three sides cover.
I suspect the Withdrawal Agreement tweaked may still be the final destination
Let’s hope so. The backstop language really doesn’t need to move much, for a clear majority of MPs (and the country at large) to be happy with it. But it has to be the legal WA Treaty that changes, not some meaningless document that sits next to it.
The reason why there’s all the talk from candidates about no deal, isn’t that no deal is preferable to a deal (it isn’t), but that there’s no chance whatsoever of getting the WA amended unless the EU understand that we are prepared to go through with it.
Has there ever been a thread header on here that gives a positive or balanced view of leaving the EU? I don’t think I have read one that pays any attention to the people who voted for it and the reasons why it might be a good thing for them if it happened.
Why don't you write one yourself instead of whinging
If the Tories do not commit to deliver Brexit they will be overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right it is as simple as that. No Deal Brexit would create difficulties and is certainly not as ideal a scenario as Brexit with a Deal but it would not produce the existential crisis for the Tories of failing to deliver Brexit at all
Probably we will leave on something like Theresa May's terms but tweaked so everyone can save face. A far longer transition period before the dreaded backstop, perhaps to allow technological solutions, and removal of May's red lines round FOM. It gives all three sides cover.
I suspect the Withdrawal Agreement tweaked may still be the final destination
Let’s hope so. The backstop language really doesn’t need to move much, for a clear majority of MPs (and the country at large) to be happy with it. But it has to be the legal WA Treaty that changes, not some meaningless document that sits next to it.
The reason why there’s all the talk from candidates about no deal, isn’t that no deal is preferable to a deal (it isn’t), but that there’s no chance whatsoever of getting the WA amended unless the EU understand that we are prepared to go through with it.
A technical solution for the Irish border is key and the EU look willing to consider that if Ireland does too
Boris 86 Hunt 36 Gove 35 Javid 19 Hancock 16 Harper 8, Stewart 7, McVey 6, Leadsom 5
Not much of a race, is it?
Three reasons why Boris might underperform:
- MPs backing him publicly just to keep their local party happy - Ditto just to maximise their chance of a job - Supporters trying to influence who the competitor will be
A late boost for Andrea Leadsom from IpsosMori as she is the only Tory leadership contender who has a bigger lead than Boris over Corbyn as preferred PM across the UK. Gove does worst only tieing Corbyn
An extremely good header with which I agree one hunnert percent.
Tax bungs for the well off funded by spending the No Deal reserve - front runner Boris Johnson - this must be a contender for the most egregious policy pledge of all time.
The combination of financial illiteracy, contempt for logic, shameless opportunism and moral bankruptcy is really quite something.
It certainly deserves a prize - but preferably not the keys to number 10. I suggest an all expenses paid long weekend in Liverpool. Meeting all the people.
If the Tories do not commit to deliver Brexit they will be overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right it is as simple as that. No Deal Brexit would create difficulties and is certainly not as ideal a scenario as Brexit with a Deal but it would not produce the existential crisis for the Tories of failing to deliver Brexit at all
Probably we will leave on something like Theresa May's terms but tweaked so everyone can save face. A far longer transition period before the dreaded backstop, perhaps to allow technological solutions, and removal of May's red lines round FOM. It gives all three sides cover.
I suspect the Withdrawal Agreement tweaked may still be the final destination
Let’s hope so. The backstop language really doesn’t need to move much, for a clear majority of MPs (and the country at large) to be happy with it. But it has to be the legal WA Treaty that changes, not some meaningless document that sits next to it.
The reason why there’s all the talk from candidates about no deal, isn’t that no deal is preferable to a deal (it isn’t), but that there’s no chance whatsoever of getting the WA amended unless the EU understand that we are prepared to go through with it.
The EU are aware of what the UK parliament thinks and they know we are not going to no deal. Theresa May pretended she was for two years. Boris can pretend for three months. If he wants a no deal rather than extension in October his first act will have to be trying to get a GE (which there is some chance parliament may not offer until a further extension is agreed).
Lets see how a Tory PM campaigning on delivering hard Brexit with a theoretical poll lead, a couple of unpopular alternative policies and aversion to appearing before the public to debate their flagship policy does.
Boris claims to offer finality and soon for Brexit as the nation is bored. The last thing it wants is Hunt or Rory negotiating for 3 more years a la May.
Whether it’s possible or not at least punters will find out soon - not in 2022.
If the Tories do not commit to deliver Brexit they will be overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right it is as simple as that. No Deal Brexit would create difficulties and is certainly not as ideal a scenario as Brexit with a Deal but it would not produce the existential crisis for the Tories of failing to deliver Brexit at all
Probably we will leave on something like Theresa May's terms but tweaked so everyone can save face. A far longer transition period before the dreaded backstop, perhaps to allow technological solutions, and removal of May's red lines round FOM. It gives all three sides cover.
I suspect the Withdrawal Agreement tweaked may still be the final destination
Let’s hope so. The backstop language really doesn’t need to move much, for a clear majority of MPs (and the country at large) to be happy with it. But it has to be the legal WA Treaty that changes, not some meaningless document that sits next to it.
The reason why there’s all the talk from candidates about no deal, isn’t that no deal is preferable to a deal (it isn’t), but that there’s no chance whatsoever of getting the WA amended unless the EU understand that we are prepared to go through with it.
The EU are aware of what the UK parliament thinks and they know we are not going to no deal. Theresa May pretended she was for two years. Boris can pretend for three months. If he wants a no deal rather than extension in October his first act will have to be trying to get a GE (which there is some chance parliament may not offer until a further extension is agreed).
Lets see how a Tory PM campaigning on delivering hard Brexit with a theoretical poll lead, a couple of unpopular alternative policies and aversion to appearing before the public to debate their flagship policy does.
Boris has charisma, May did not and Corbyn also faces the problem he is losing Remainers to the LDs until he commits to EUref2.
Of course if Macron vetoes further extension the Commons would have to decide on No Deal or Revoke anyway in October if they hsve not passed the Withdrawal Agreement by then and in that case Boris would do all he can to prevent them choosing Revoke and the failure of the stop No Deal vote yesterday helps him on that
If the Tories do not commit to deliver Brexit they will be overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right it is as simple as that. No Deal Brexit would create difficulties and is certainly not as ideal a scenario as Brexit with a Deal but it would not produce the existential crisis for the Tories of failing to deliver Brexit at all
Probably we will leave on something like Theresa May's terms but tweaked so everyone can save face. A far longer transition period before the dreaded backstop, perhaps to allow technological solutions, and removal of May's red lines round FOM. It gives all three sides cover.
I suspect the Withdrawal Agreement tweaked may still be the final destination
Let’s hope so. The backstop language really doesn’t need to move much, for a clear majority of MPs (and the country at large) to be happy with it. But it has to be the legal WA Treaty that changes, not some meaningless document that sits next to it.
The reason why there’s all the talk from candidates about no deal, isn’t that no deal is preferable to a deal (it isn’t), but that there’s no chance whatsoever of getting the WA amended unless the EU understand that we are prepared to go through with it.
The EU are aware of what the UK parliament thinks and they know we are not going to no deal. Theresa May pretended she was for two years. Boris can pretend for three months. If he wants a no deal rather than extension in October his first act will have to be trying to get a GE (which there is some chance parliament may not offer until a further extension is agreed).
Lets see how a Tory PM campaigning on delivering hard Brexit with a theoretical poll lead, a couple of unpopular alternative policies and aversion to appearing before the public to debate their flagship policy does.
They know the current deal doesn’t pass the current Parliament, so one or other has to change.
September election is 14 on Betfair. I’m topping up.
Has there ever been a thread header on here that gives a positive or balanced view of leaving the EU? I don’t think I have read one that pays any attention to the people who voted for it and the reasons why it might be a good thing for them if it happened.
Why don't you write one yourself instead of whinging
I’ve answered that question several times on this thread, but is it really whingeing to point out the imbalance?
I merely enquired if there had been any, and now @TheScreamingEagles has confirmed: Two in the last 1500 days/4500 threads or so, and none for three years, (written by a leaver that is pro mass immigration, so not entirely representative of leave voters I’d say)
A late boost for Andrea Leadsom from IpsosMori as she is the only Tory leadership contender who has a bigger lead than Boris over Corbyn as preferred PM across the UK. Gove does worst only tieing Corbyn
If you look at the detail of the poll it’s all MoE stuff. Johnson, Leadsom, Hunt and Javid all hold small leads over Jeremy Corbyn in terms of who the public prefer as PM.
Leadsom has 34% (same as Hunt) and only 2% ahead of Gove and Javid who are also on 32% with a high number of don’t knows.
If the Tories do not commit to deliver Brexit they will be overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right it is as simple as that. No Deal Brexit would create difficulties and is certainly not as ideal a scenario as Brexit with a Deal but it would not produce the existential crisis for the Tories of failing to deliver Brexit at all
Probably we will leave on something like Theresa May's terms but tweaked so everyone can save face. A far longer transition period before the dreaded backstop, perhaps to allow technological solutions, and removal of May's red lines round FOM. It gives all three sides cover.
I suspect the Withdrawal Agreement tweaked may still be the final destination
Likewise. But with a Paddington Hard Stare from Boris, directed at Brussels. If he thinks for one minute the EU is acting in bad faith, he will pull the whole thing. "Abrogation" will be the big stick Boris will threaten to wield, a weapon unknown in May's armoury.
There are articles like that every day in the British newspapers in favour of various politicians. Owen Jones in favour of Jeremy Corbyn, for instance.
One before and one immediately after the 2016 referendum. Anything since then?
Seriously unless you are suggesting that pro-Brexit headers are being submitted and rejected or censored we must assume that they are not appearing because nobody is writing them.
Seems like the usual case of leavers blaming everyone else but themselves for the problem. Perhaps some of you should get off your backsides and submit a piece
If the Tories do not commit to deliver Brexit they will be overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right it is as simple as that. No Deal Brexit would create difficulties and is certainly not as ideal a scenario as Brexit with a Deal but it would not produce the existential crisis for the Tories of failing to deliver Brexit at all
Probably we will leave on something like Theresa May's terms but tweaked so everyone can save face. A far longer transition period before the dreaded backstop, perhaps to allow technological solutions, and removal of May's red lines round FOM. It gives all three sides cover.
I suspect the Withdrawal Agreement tweaked may still be the final destination
Pb.com tories have been saying this for two years. I can recall many Solomonic utterances about how things will be fudged at the last minute because that's apparently how the EU negotiates.
If the Tories do not commit to deliver Brexit they will be overtaken by the Brexit Party as the main party of the right it is as simple as that. No Deal Brexit would create difficulties and is certainly not as ideal a scenario as Brexit with a Deal but it would not produce the existential crisis for the Tories of failing to deliver Brexit at all
Probably we will leave on something like Theresa May's terms but tweaked so everyone can save face. A far longer transition period before the dreaded backstop, perhaps to allow technological solutions, and removal of May's red lines round FOM. It gives all three sides cover.
I suspect the Withdrawal Agreement tweaked may still be the final destination
Likewise. But with a Paddington Hard Stare from Boris, directed at Brussels. If he thinks for one minute the EU is acting in bad faith, he will pull the whole thing. "Abrogation" will be the big stick Boris will threaten to wield, a weapon unknown in May's armoury.
Having planned for it in the meantime.
I fear you're putting a little too much faith in Boris's skill and planning. In what do you base this faith ?
Apols if already done but I am interested in what people think the 2 magic numbers are for Johnson in the 1st ballot - i.e. the one that if he exceeds it means he is virtually home and hosed, and the one that if he falls below it means he might be in serious danger.
Apols if already done but I am interested in what people think the 2 magic numbers are for Johnson in the 1st ballot - i.e. the one that if he exceeds it means he is virtually home and hosed, and the one that if he falls below it means he might be in serious danger.
I am thinking 120 and 80?
Agree, but with this silly voting system you can get 120 in the first round and not be certain of going through if your supporters get bored and start voting for other candidates in later rounds.
One before and one immediately after the 2016 referendum. Anything since then?
Seriously unless you are suggesting that pro-Brexit headers are being submitted and rejected or censored we must assume that they are not appearing because nobody is writing them.
Seems like the usual case of leavers blaming everyone else but themselves for the problem. Perhaps some of you should get off your backsides and submit a piece
I have submitted two or three which have been knocked back or ignored, so your assumption is incorrect.
Anyway, I am prepared to accept the site bias, I like commenting below the line, but thought it worth pointing out
Has there ever been a thread header on here that gives a positive or balanced view of leaving the EU? I don’t think I have read one that pays any attention to the people who voted for it and the reasons why it might be a good thing for them if it happened.
Why don't you write one yourself instead of whinging
I’ve answered that question several times on this thread, but is it really whingeing to point out the imbalance?
I merely enquired if there had been any, and now @TheScreamingEagles has confirmed: Two in the last 1500 days/4500 threads or so, and none for three years, (written by a leaver that is pro mass immigration, so not entirely representative of leave voters I’d say)
I agree; it's an interesting question. There is no real impediment to anyone presenting a reasoned and coherent case, so why are such headers so rare ?
One before and one immediately after the 2016 referendum. Anything since then?
Seriously unless you are suggesting that pro-Brexit headers are being submitted and rejected or censored we must assume that they are not appearing because nobody is writing them.
Seems like the usual case of leavers blaming everyone else but themselves for the problem. Perhaps some of you should get off your backsides and submit a piece
I always assumed everyone knew this was a Lib Dem site with a bit of gambling thrown in to keep it interesting.
One before and one immediately after the 2016 referendum. Anything since then?
Seriously unless you are suggesting that pro-Brexit headers are being submitted and rejected or censored we must assume that they are not appearing because nobody is writing them.
Seems like the usual case of leavers blaming everyone else but themselves for the problem. Perhaps some of you should get off your backsides and submit a piece
I have submitted two or three which have been knocked back or ignored, so your assumption is incorrect.
Anyway, I am prepared to accept the site bias, I like commenting below the line, but thought it worth pointing out
Haven't you had threaders published in the past?
I'll give two answers to your question: 1) Leavers are far too busy and influential to bother writing informed headers for free. 2) Leavers understand that their project is an almighty mess, and it is difficult to write anything positive about it. It's easier to let someone else do it, and then they can be blamed.
One before and one immediately after the 2016 referendum. Anything since then?
Seriously unless you are suggesting that pro-Brexit headers are being submitted and rejected or censored we must assume that they are not appearing because nobody is writing them.
Seems like the usual case of leavers blaming everyone else but themselves for the problem. Perhaps some of you should get off your backsides and submit a piece
If you read through the thread you would have seen that indeed some have been submitted but not taken up.
Comments
Boris 86
Hunt 36
Gove 35
Javid 19
Hancock 16
Harper 8, Stewart 7, McVey 6, Leadsom 5
Boris only loses Uxbridge if Corbyn wins an overall majority, in which case I doubt whether he cares if he holds Uxbridge anyway
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125574963
Leave with no Deal - Right of the Conservatives are happy, Nigel has to visit the vets to be neutered.
However, leaving with No Deal means that we have to implement Deals to continue trade, life and maintain good relationships etc. Doing this will cause ripples on the now satisfied right but begin to soothe the discontented Europhile wing of the electorate.
Following a No Deal strategy may be the only way to be all things to all men, given that accepting any agreement appears to be beyond the ability of parliament.
Once No Deal is done the deals become far easier to implement.
Boris is nothing if not inventive, and I suspect he is remarkably pragmatic where success and popularity are concerned as opposed to rigidly ideological.
And if Saudi wanted to mess them up, then they could say they were going to pump a couple more million barrels a day.
I do wonder if Iran is going for broke, given their continuing plan to build the Bomb has provoked Trump into threatening their regime.
I do wonder if they have any idea as to what they are doing.
https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2019/06/leadership-election-candidate-support-numbers-hunt-27-johnson-19-raab-13-gove-12-javid-10.html
If scorn is poured on her from opponents then I'm with you. If you can't take it then don't dish it out.
However if you're implying some form of formal sanction, investigation or legal action then I say no. If a citizen can't ridicule and imply comedic violence against our all too powerful politicians then we begin the slide toward a situation that should not be contemplated
I recall Kenny Everett bringing the house down when he told the Conservative conference to kick away Michael Foot's walking stick and nuke Moscow.
Be careful what you wish for.
Usual FUD.
Richard Tyndall has written a couple of headers on Leaving/what to do next.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/26/richard-tyndall-on-the-exit-strategy/
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/29/richard-tyndall-on-laying-the-groundwork-for-an-out-vote/
The line between comedy and incitement isn't a bright one.
"It depends what the consequences are."
That cuts both ways.
Though I'm hoping you prove a trend setter.
Their raison d'etre is not No Deal any more than it was Brexit. Once no deal is achieved their still needs to be a vehicle for the anger, frustration and dislike of the EU and foreigners.
You cannot rationalise or manage fundamentalists. Get into bed with them at your peril.
The acid joke is very close to the line indeed.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/conservative-leadership-candidates-head-head-versus-jeremy-corbyn
Who knew you and Nigel Farage would become snowflakes in the face of Jo Brand's caustic comedy routine.
Astonishing.
None in the last three 👍🏻
The reason why there’s all the talk from candidates about no deal, isn’t that no deal is preferable to a deal (it isn’t), but that there’s no chance whatsoever of getting the WA amended unless the EU understand that we are prepared to go through with it.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1139096247665602560?s=20
Though of course Brown, Edinburgh, in 2010 and Corbyn, non graduate, in 2017 got hung parliaments
Anything since then?
- MPs backing him publicly just to keep their local party happy
- Ditto just to maximise their chance of a job
- Supporters trying to influence who the competitor will be
Tax bungs for the well off funded by spending the No Deal reserve - front runner Boris Johnson - this must be a contender for the most egregious policy pledge of all time.
The combination of financial illiteracy, contempt for logic, shameless opportunism and moral bankruptcy is really quite something.
It certainly deserves a prize - but preferably not the keys to number 10. I suggest an all expenses paid long weekend in Liverpool. Meeting all the people.
Lets see how a Tory PM campaigning on delivering hard Brexit with a theoretical poll lead, a couple of unpopular alternative policies and aversion to appearing before the public to debate their flagship policy does.
https://twitter.com/BobBlackman
Whether it’s possible or not at least punters will find out soon - not in 2022.
Clarity and brevity is the offer.
Of course if Macron vetoes further extension the Commons would have to decide on No Deal or Revoke anyway in October if they hsve not passed the Withdrawal Agreement by then and in that case Boris would do all he can to prevent them choosing Revoke and the failure of the stop No Deal vote yesterday helps him on that
September election is 14 on Betfair. I’m topping up.
I merely enquired if there had been any, and now @TheScreamingEagles has confirmed: Two in the last 1500 days/4500 threads or so, and none for three years, (written by a leaver that is pro mass immigration, so not entirely representative of leave voters I’d say)
The unwillingness of Leavers to put forward a reasoned case at length is highly disappointing.
Leadsom has 34% (same as Hunt) and only 2% ahead of Gove and Javid who are also on 32% with a high number of don’t knows.
The winner is whoever drinks the most Sourtoe Cocktails!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48612467
If they’re doing that it suggests that they are unsure they’ll make it through round one.
I expect they’ll argue a female needs to be kept in the race.
Having planned for it in the meantime.
Raab is drifting very fast.
Seems like the usual case of leavers blaming everyone else but themselves for the problem. Perhaps some of you should get off your backsides and submit a piece
Probably best not risk it on Tory MPs, then.
I am thinking 120 and 80?
"Delayed start - inspection at 10:30"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/47477419
Anyway, I am prepared to accept the site bias, I like commenting below the line, but thought it worth pointing out
There is no real impediment to anyone presenting a reasoned and coherent case, so why are such headers so rare ?
https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1139102076947062784?s=21
https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1139070070989185024
I'll give two answers to your question:
1) Leavers are far too busy and influential to bother writing informed headers for free.
2) Leavers understand that their project is an almighty mess, and it is difficult to write anything positive about it. It's easier to let someone else do it, and then they can be blamed.
Choose whichever you prefer