politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Peterborough by-election betting – the final 12 hours

not_on_fire said:

tlg86 said:

Gardenwalker said:

another_richard said:

Barnesian said:

another_richard said:

Barnesian said:

another_richard said:

Barnesian said:

SandyRentool said:

Never has an opposition hold in a by-election been such a surprise.

Labour won thanks to enough Tory voters sticking with the Conservatives.

A disappointing night for the LibDems - some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!

It was actually a rejection of
The result has no relevance to Labour's convoluted policy on 2nd Ref,

EDIT: Nevertheless, you're probably right. Some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!

It was a rejection of the two extreme positions of No Deal and second referendum.

There you go! We were right.

And so am I.

In a constituency which was 39% Remain the LibDems got 12%.

The voters of Peterborough have just said 'Bollocks to the LibDems'.

The Remainers said "Bollocks to Brexit" and voted tactically for the Labour party.

I think there will be a lot more tactical voting by Remainers at the next GE. As we all know, and not to make an issue of it, Remainers, in general - not all, are more intelligent than Leavers. I think that is indisputable.

Is there an offence of leaverophobia or anti-leaverism? I can't keep up with what is not PC these days.

Its not the story you were expecting is it.

The LibDems had the big momentum and a real opportunity and you didn't achieve.

I’m a LibDemmer these days.
Voted for them in the 2017 GE and of course in the Euros.

I don’t live in Peterborough but if I had I would have voted tactically for Labour to prevent a No Deal extremist entering parliament - especially with numbers on a knife edge.

Even with the Lib Dem surge, they never stood a chance.

I am quite happy this morning.

I think this is an important point. In all the thinking about what Labour should do, I think if they stick to being pro-Brexit (just anti a Tory Brexit), I think they can count on Lib Dem/Greens to vote tactically in places like Peterborough.

This. There is not so much a Remain coalition, more of an anti-hard Brexit one

I think it also confirms that Faragism has strong support, but with a low ceiling as the majority are repulsed by Farage.

We saw that yesterday in Peterborough, but also in the 2015 GE, where even in ideal seats the UKIP struggled to get into the high 20 percents, about 10% short of the vote share needed to win a seat under FPTP.

@HYUFD's predictions of 400 odd BXP MPs look rather frothy this morning.

rottenborough said:

Blimey, did not expect this:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1136893315868221440

Andrea Leadsom should be careful.

The first mainstream politician to identify global warming was Margaret Thatcher, and she was deposed as prime minister for her pains.

IanB2 said:

RochdalePioneers said:

NickPalmer said:

Rochdale P - mmm, it's clearly patchy in your area, but you're a bit torn yourself, aren't you? Weren't you saying a couple of weeks ago that voting Labour in Peterborough was a mark of shame, but you're cheering (sort of) this morning? I agree there are plenty of inactive members, as always, but I don't think you can disagree that this by-election showed an awful lot of active ones. When push comes to shove, most of us pitch in, and I hope you will too, rather than facilitate government by some Tory ultra or Farage.

No, I said that its a vote of shame voting Labour anywhere. When Labour MPs across the country are openly begging Labour members to vote Labour, we know that its bad.

What this election showed is that the party is capable of bussing in the committed Momentum people. Which like with similar efforts by other parties and ourselves can't be replicated nationally when every seat is up for election.

As for pitching in, I carried the majority of the council campaign in my ward, delivered almost all of the leaflets, posted most of the social media. I have been in the party for 25 years and want what we need - a Labour government. My frustration that the Corbynism cancer continues to remove our chances of having that.

We held the seat - a fantastic result thanks to a one-off army of activists winning the ground war. Yet we collapsed by 17% to just a 31% share, the second worst in history. We can win the odd one-off like this where however badly we collapse the other side collapse worse. But we continue to bleed out our vote and our support and that isn't going to get any better when we keep selecting dubious candidates and keep pushing our non-position on Brexit.

Eastleigh probably is a good comparison. The LibDems were reassured after holding that seat, thinking that they could throw everything at their held seats and hang on after the coalition. Yet they got in on the back of a significantly reduced vote and a perfectly split opposition. The real story was the drop in their vote from 46% to 32% - the lowest share of the vote for a by-election victor, until last night.

Looking back I found @Pong tipping up "remain" after Oldham West & Royton at anything better than 1-2. He's as shrewd as any of us yet drew a nonsense conclusion from that BE !

surbiton19 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/StuartWilksHeeg/status/1136897925081174016

Is this the same SDP ? I thought they had folded.

They are still going, have a growing membership and 'boast' Rod Liddle as a recent high profile convert. Their 'New Declaration' is decent and their leader seems a decent sort. They might have got more votes last night if the Brexit Party hadn't come along - Patrick O'Flynn was a good candidate.

https://twitter.com/shaunjlawson/status/1136872299670495232

rottenborough said:

Blimey, did not expect this:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1136893315868221440

Is bloody Letwin advising Andrea?

How much did Betfair pay from Meeks' premium charge take to Paul Krishnamurty
to write this garbage ?

Peterborough By-Election Betting: Brexit Party to hammer divided opponents again

https://betting.betfair.com/politics/uk-politics/peterborough-by-election-betting-and-analysis-050619-171.html

MarkHopkins said:

rottenborough said:

Blimey, did not expect this:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1136893315868221440

I think our political class have truly gone mad.

It is a political class that listens to social media. That is indeed madness.

So, Brecon and radnor...

Fenman said:

So, Brecon and radnor...

When is the recall due?

Da Fuq?

Oxford Uni medical student spared jail for stabbing boyfriend quits degree to pursue barrister dream

https://www.legalcheek.com/2019/06/oxford-uni-medical-student-spared-jail-for-stabbing-boyfriend-quits-degree-to-pursue-barrister-dream/

Morning all

As is often the case with elections, positives and negatives for all the key players:

Labour:
They held the seat which didn't look likely after the European elections. That seems mainly down to the "ground war" and for a supposedly demoralised party (and Nick P made this point) the activists are still coming out and pounding the turf when needed.

OTOH, Labour are the main opposition party and to lose more than a third of your vote share nine years into a Government's term is a pretty damning indictment. This is a seat which, under normal circumstances, should have been retained with an increased majority. Instead, Labour scraped home with a narrow win (not unusual in this seat at General Elections in all fairness)

The Brexit Party
For a Party which has barely started to poll nearly 30% in its first contest is remarkable by any measurement given a lack of local organisation, canvassing data and the like. It has shades of Warrington in July 1981 about it.

The problem is, as the LDs will attest, the oxygen of publicity is fed by success not near-misses. It cements an image around Farage of a man who doesn't know how to win. Had they won, the MP would have become a potential rival to Farage so it's kept his position.

Conservatives:
No question, this was a good result for the Conservatives in the context of the EU elections disaster but no one ever got rich predicting the death knell of the Conservatives.

OTOH, it's only a triumph of expectations management if losing half your vote share can be spun as a good result. It confirms the Conservatives are in a parlous position via-a-vis the insurgent TBP. The battle is joined but neither side has yet produced a clear advantage.

Liberal Democrats
In a constituency which has never been anything more than stony ground, a quadrupling of the vote is a solid achievement. Clearly, the Party didn't put in an "Eastleigh" style effort and that illustrates continuing weakness but a solid result.

OTOH, in the immediate euphoria of the European elections, many thought the LDs could ride the anti-Brexit wave into second place and in the world of expectations management, 12% and fourth looks poor alongside 20% and second but the true test will come in a seat where the party isn't starting from 3%.

Overall, I'm left to muse on the fact the CON-LAB share fell from 95% in 2017 to 52% yesterday which is extraordinary yet, as Curtice confirms, the result isn't far from the polls. The CON-LD swing was 17% which again mirrors some recent polls and while that made little difference, there are other Conservative seats where such a swing might be significant.

The Lab-LD swing was a mere 13% by comparison.

Fenman said:

So, Brecon and radnor...

Are the Tories backing the recall petition?

https://twitter.com/graceblakeley/status/1136919849589006341

https://twitter.com/moron_mp/status/1136920248555319297

rottenborough said:

Blimey, did not expect this:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1136893315868221440

Probably she just means emergency legislation to prevent young people taking to the streets.

rottenborough said:

Fenman said:

So, Brecon and radnor...

When is the recall due?

20th June

Sandpit said:

Morning all. Back from a few days holiday, I guess a quiet week on the politics front?

Today’s the day we all scream at Betfair with a line-by-line analysis of Theresa May’s letter of resignation to the party chairman, am I right?

Someone's edited the page!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leader_of_the_Conservative_Party_(UK)

EDIT: By someone who likes Morecambe FC!

Sandpit said:

Morning all. Back from a few days holiday, I guess a quiet week on the politics front?

Today’s the day we all scream at Betfair with a line-by-line analysis of Theresa May’s letter of resignation to the party chairman, am I right?

Yes. The precise wording to depend on whether we are green on June or July.

JosiasJessop said:

This may shock some people:

Mrs J and I recently spent the weekend in Oxford. A few weeks back we visited Peterborough.

She said she preferred to visit the centre of Peterborough to Oxford!

Oxford is a dump.

It is and it isn't. Oxford has really great parts of the city centre but it takes time to find them. The main streets (Queen Street, George Street, Cornmarket, the High) are indeed a complete dump, unless you're a bus driver. Oxford's history as a car town, really powerful lobbying by the bus companies, and the paucity of river crossings has meant that traffic in Oxford has never been sorted out in the way that most other historic cities have.

Peterborough's city centre, meanwhile, is all pedestrianised so has a lot of instant appeal. And it has a proper cathedral, whereas Oxford has a glorified college chapel. But that's all there is to it. You can see the interesting bits of Peterborough in an afternoon. Maybe add a morning if you go for a walk along the river.

Coincidentally, two of the three most prestigious organist/director of music posts in Oxford have recently gone to Peterborough Cathedral organists: Christ Church hired Steven Grahl, and before that New College poached Robert Quinney.

(I grew up in a small town near Peterborough, now live in a small town near Oxford, and went to the Other Place so certainly don't have any historic loyalty to Oxford )

Fcuk me, has everyone succumbed to this addiction to highly inappropriate & shitey WWII metaphors?

https://twitter.com/labourlewis/status/1136896908595736576

Sandpit said:

Morning all. Back from a few days holiday, I guess a quiet week on the politics front?

Today’s the day we all scream at Betfair with a line-by-line analysis of Theresa May’s letter of resignation to the party chairman, am I right?

Every news report is saying "stepping down as party leader" although no doubt BF will shout "fake news".

(btw I am very happy with BF because they let me back Ruiz to win by KO/TKO @ 26s so they can do no wrong for me).

El_Capitano said:

JosiasJessop said:

This may shock some people:

Mrs J and I recently spent the weekend in Oxford. A few weeks back we visited Peterborough.

She said she preferred to visit the centre of Peterborough to Oxford!

Oxford is a dump.

It is and it isn't. Oxford has really great parts of the city centre but it takes time to find them. The main streets (Queen Street, George Street, Cornmarket, the High) are indeed a complete dump, unless you're a bus driver. Oxford's history as a car town, really powerful lobbying by the bus companies, and the paucity of river crossings has meant that traffic in Oxford has never been sorted out in the way that most other historic cities have.

Peterborough's city centre, meanwhile, is all pedestrianised so has a lot of instant appeal. And it has a proper cathedral, whereas Oxford has a glorified college chapel. But that's all there is to it. You can see the interesting bits of Peterborough in an afternoon. Maybe add a morning if you go for a walk along the river.

Coincidentally, two of the three most prestigious organist/director of music posts in Oxford have recently gone to Peterborough Cathedral organists: Christ Church hired Steven Grahl, and before that New College poached Robert Quinney.

(I grew up in a small town near Peterborough, now live in a small town near Oxford, and went to the Other Place so certainly don't have any historic loyalty to Oxford )

I might also be biased by the fact there's a preserved railway running into Peterborough.

I think Mrs J was more interested in the shopping - which was pretty dire in Oxford. And don't get me started on the hellhole that is Bicester Village ...

Edit: I'd also add that Cambridge is terrible for shopping as well. Which is why we ended up in Peterborough ...

JosiasJessop said:

I might also be biased by the fact there's a preserved railway running into Peterborough.

I think Mrs J was more interested in the shopping - which was pretty dire in Oxford. And don't get me started on the hellhole that is Bicester Village ...

Edit: I'd also add that Cambridge is terrible for shopping as well. Which is why we ended up in Peterborough ...

Ah, well, Oxford has Westgate now if you want a city centre hellhole...

No preserved railway, though, I'll grant you that. We usually take Capitano Junior to the Gloucestershire & Warwickshire, though in his view the Severn Valley can't be topped because it also has elephants and rhinos.

El_Capitano said:

JosiasJessop said:

This may shock some people:

Mrs J and I recently spent the weekend in Oxford. A few weeks back we visited Peterborough.

She said she preferred to visit the centre of Peterborough to Oxford!

Oxford is a dump.

It is and it isn't. Oxford has really great parts of the city centre but it takes time to find them. The main streets (Queen Street, George Street, Cornmarket, the High) are indeed a complete dump, unless you're a bus driver. Oxford's history as a car town, really powerful lobbying by the bus companies, and the paucity of river crossings has meant that traffic in Oxford has never been sorted out in the way that most other historic cities have.

Peterborough's city centre, meanwhile, is all pedestrianised so has a lot of instant appeal. And it has a proper cathedral, whereas Oxford has a glorified college chapel. But that's all there is to it. You can see the interesting bits of Peterborough in an afternoon. Maybe add a morning if you go for a walk along the river.

Coincidentally, two of the three most prestigious organist/director of music posts in Oxford have recently gone to Peterborough Cathedral organists: Christ Church hired Steven Grahl, and before that New College poached Robert Quinney.

(I grew up in a small town near Peterborough, now live in a small town near Oxford, and went to the Other Place so certainly don't have any historic loyalty to Oxford )

Anyone trying to park in Oxford itself will find the town reeks of piss....

Well at least we didn't have to put up with Farage's grinning face this morning.

My take on winners and losers in Peterborough:-

Winners

1) Corbyn - Labour held the seat against all expectations, despite the massive drop in share of the vote this will be presented as a major boost for the Labour leadership and constructive ambiguity. Talk of a coup within Labour will be muted;

2) Labour organisation - Despite its organisational inability to tackle antisemitism Labour is still capable of smart campaigning on the ground - there must have been a massive GOTV effort to achieve this result;

3) Momentum - will claim credit for 2.

4) The political debate on issues other than Brexit - Labour's attempts to debate other issues seem to have borne fruit.

Losers

1) The Tories - this result shows that, whilst the BXP are not about to storm the ramparts of Westminster, there is a serious risk that it will take enough votes from the Tories to give Labour a majority even if they only achieve 30% of the popular vote. And, as we have said on here many times, the Tories are trapped, parliament will not allow them to deliver Brexit without a general election and they cannot win a general election unless they have delivered Brexit. Political oblivion looks ever more likely for them;

2) The Brexit Party - a result like this (comparable to Roy Jenkins almost winning Warrington in 1982) should put them firmly amongst the winners but they completely messed up the expectations game, obviously believed in their own hype and so a considerable achievement - coming from nowhere with no organisation or voter ID information, to get close to winning - will now be presented as a failure. The BXP seem destined to be another UKIP - able to mobilise protest votes but unable to put down deep political roots;

3) The Lib Dems - a relatively poor result for them in the context of their stellar Euro election performance, suggests that their focus on Brexit is not going to be as effective in Westminster elections as it was in the Euros;

4) Tom Watson - his enemies in the Labour Party will be emboldened;

5) Brexit - now looks less likely than ever, if the BXP are not at the gates the idea that MPs might be intimidated into backing May's deal, or something close to it, loses what little credibility it ever had. Remainers at Westminster will be emboldened to continue their blocking tactics in the knowledge that a new general election would be very unlikely to result in a "no deal" parliament and without such a parliament Brexit seems doomed.

Foxy said:

I think it also confirms that Faragism has strong support, but with a low ceiling as the majority are repulsed by Farage.

We saw that yesterday in Peterborough, but also in the 2015 GE, where even in ideal seats the UKIP struggled to get into the high 20 percents, about 10% short of the vote share needed to win a seat under FPTP.

@HYUFD's predictions of 400 odd BXP MPs look rather frothy this morning.

@HYUFD's predictions are always "frothy".

https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1136926479386894336

Looks like Peterborough may have dodged a bullet, or at least a dumdum compared to the low calibre, low velocity one they actually got.*

https://twitter.com/JMPSimor/status/1136921644453285888

*Since dumdums were a C19th invention, this is definitely not a WWII metaphor.

surbiton19 said:

Does anyone have access to Farage's victory speech ? Or, please write in what you think his speech would have said.

Hiccup ... People ... Hiccup ... Political Class ... Aint seen nothing ... Hiccup ... yet.

MarkHopkins said:

rottenborough said:

Blimey, did not expect this:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1136893315868221440

I think our political class have truly gone mad.

Climate emergency in Leadsomworld = Opportunity to sell environment helpful technology to the rest of the world.

It is a good policy, almost certainly one every flavour of UK govt will do something to support, maybe it will be more a priority for her than others, that seems somewhere between possible and doubtful. It is nothing to do with what green activists would expect if a govt called a climate emergency.

noneoftheabove said:

MarkHopkins said:

rottenborough said:

Blimey, did not expect this:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1136893315868221440

I think our political class have truly gone mad.

Climate emergency in Leadsomworld = Opportunity to sell environment helpful technology to the rest of the world.

It is a good policy, almost certainly one every flavour of UK govt will do something to support, maybe it will be more a priority for her than others, that seems somewhere between possible and doubtful. It is nothing to do with what green activists would expect if a govt called a climate emergency.

Not hinting at a deal with Gove?

Given how close it was one must think that if Nigel Farage himself had stood for the BP he would probably have won the seat.

I wonder if he regrets not doing so?

As it is, precious momentum has been lost.

SouthamObserver said:

kinabalu said:

TOPPING said:

tbf for all the bluster, there is still only one deal on the table and a leader who has said they will trash it has not yet been elected. In fact I have only heard candidates talking about renegotiation but not that the deal will be thrown out. Although I suppose that might be implied.

I am coming back in the tent. I know I've been going on about the 'Remain/Socialism' double (which I would still love to see) but as regards what I think WILL happen? - the Withdrawal Treaty will be ratified and we will be leaving the EU on that basis. This will take place under PM Boris Johnson. It is the only practical way forward and therefore he will do it.

If the WA is ratified it will kill the Tories off. But, then, it's hard to see any scenario under which they stay alive.

Depends if there is someone with the charisma, charm, yes precociousness, nerve, verve, and sheer gritty determination to volte face on WA opposition and bring the party with him to ensure its passing.

And I'm not talking about Matt Hancock.

Pulpstar said:

MikeSmithson said:

JackW said:

Sky New - Stewart Jackson (late of this parish and last but one Peterborough MP all of two years ago !!) comes out for BoJo ....

You're doomed Boris .... doomed, de yer hear what I say Boris DOOMED !!!!!!

Yes indeed. Jack is right. Stewart Jackson the former MP for Peterborough used to be a regular on PB

What are your thoughts on the somewhat farcical May Exit date market ?

I used to work for Betfair advising them on her political markets and I'm rather glad I'm not doing that at the moment. The firm will stick with its position and the only way round it, I would suggest, is to go to IBAS the betting arbitration service

https://twitter.com/BetfairCS/status/1136893946167271425

Seems to be the official position of Betfair. Poor but hey ho.

kinabalu said:

Given how close it was one must think that if Nigel Farage himself had stood for the BP he would probably have won the seat.

I wonder if he regrets not doing so?

As it is, precious momentum has been lost.

Does he want to be an MP of one in the Commons with constant boos and heckling on the limited occasions he gets to speak. He would presumably have to sit on the opposition benches with the SNP. LDs, Greens and Soubry's party.

They dod have a pretty strong locally known candidate - but clearly unlike Labour and the Tories who had been fighting this tight marginal for 20 plus years little local organisation particularly in terms of postal voting and a general GOTV operation (as they don't yet know who or where they are). Developing that in 3-4 weeks is difficult in a by election context where parties can focus resources - and so many votes are cast well before polling day.

Pulpstar said:

https://twitter.com/BetfairCS/status/1136893946167271425

Seems to be the official position of Betfair. Poor but hey ho.

So, she “officially steps down” today then, in June. Right?

kinabalu said:

Given how close it was one must think that if Nigel Farage himself had stood for the BP he would probably have won the seat.

I wonder if he regrets not doing so?

As it is, precious momentum has been lost.

I'm not sure about that. Farage is so "Marmite" that a fair few Lab and Con leavers who probably said "plague on all your houses" and just sat out the by election would probably have turned up to vote against him.

I think TBP had the right idea going for a local candidate who was outside the political scene.

kinabalu said:

SouthamObserver said:

If the WA is ratified it will kill the Tories off. But, then, it's hard to see any scenario under which they stay alive.

I'm not so sure - because if that were the case I would expect Labour to realize it and therefore find a way to allow it to pass. Killing the Tory Party being surely right up there as an aspiration.

I think the Labour leadership is desperate to find a way for the WA to pass. The problem is the membership and Labour voters. The leadership cannot be seen to help. What it needs is a backbench rebellion.

Personal hot take: Tories will get split with the Brexit Right going BXP and the Cameroon Centrists going LD in bigger numbers than centrist Labourites voting LD, Leave Labour voting BXP or left / eco Lab voting Green. It seems that, finally, the left are more willing to vote tactically than the right. As a Green in St Albans, I know I have to vote LD to get rid of Anne Main, whereas I can see lots of local Tories fleeing the party to vote BXP or LD. The SW and maybe the East will be hard for the Tories, whereas Labour might find it easier than expected in the Midlands where Leave vote is high, but where it won't coalesce around BXP in enough numbers to beat them. I could see a strange situation where all parties hover around the 18-25% range, but Lab comes out on top because of these dynamics.

Have to say I thought the whole thing with Farage last night was pretty shambolic.

All the "is he there/isn't he there" stuff. Seemingly hiding in the loo. Possibly being pissed after spending the evening in the pub - For the first time since TBP was launched it all looked rather amateurish.

Farage needs to be careful. There's a LOT of very smart people involved in TBP outfit. Much more so than the knuckle dragging weirdos involved in UKIP.

If Nige starts to prove to be a drag on TBP he might find himself being thrown overboard...

SouthamObserver said:

Good to see a racist party defeated. Depressing to see a racist party win. For Peterborough read England at the next general election. In hundreds of constituencies there will be no good choices.

Britain in 2019: 2 racist parties competing to win. And their supporters - whether on here or in the real world - completely shameless about the racism they support and enable.

And we have the nerve to criticise the Salvinis and Le Pens and AfD’s of this world.......

Poor Britain.

148grss said:

Personal hot take: Tories will get split with the Brexit Right going BXP and the Cameroon Centrists going LD in bigger numbers than centrist Labourites voting LD, Leave Labour voting BXP or left / eco Lab voting Green. It seems that, finally, the left are more willing to vote tactically than the right. As a Green in St Albans, I know I have to vote LD to get rid of Anne Main, whereas I can see lots of local Tories fleeing the party to vote BXP or LD. The SW and maybe the East will be hard for the Tories, whereas Labour might find it easier than expected in the Midlands where Leave vote is high, but where it won't coalesce around BXP in enough numbers to beat them. I could see a strange situation where all parties hover around the 18-25% range, but Lab comes out on top because of these dynamics.

We have recently had parties winning majorities on 36% of the vote - in 2005 and 2015 - but getting 43% and failing to do so.

One wonders what it might do for our democracy if a party won a majority on 25% of the vote - they would be the legal winners but its hardly a mandate?

https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1136932233439338497

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:

Have to say I thought the whole thing with Farage last night was pretty shambolic.

All the "is he there/isn't he there" stuff. Seemingly hiding in the loo. Possibly being pissed after spending the evening in the pub - For the first time since TBP was launched it all looked rather amateurish.

Farage needs to be careful. There's a LOT of very smart people involved in TBP outfit. Much more so than the knuckle dragging weirdos involved in UKIP.

If Nige starts to prove to be a drag on TBP he might find himself being thrown overboard...

There is always Widdecombe

This could be Widdy's moment!

GIN1138 said:

kinabalu said:

Given how close it was one must think that if Nigel Farage himself had stood for the BP he would probably have won the seat.

I wonder if he regrets not doing so?

As it is, precious momentum has been lost.

I'm not sure about that. Farage is so "Marmite" that a fair few Lab and Con leavers who probably said "plague on all your houses" and just sat out the by election would probably have turned up to vote against him.

I think TBP had the right idea going for a local candidate who was outside the political scene.

The local and non-political candidate was definitely the right way to do it - but if there’s a GE called they are going to need 600 more local businesspeople who have never been on Twitter or said anything stupid in public. Not that it stopped Labour getting a racist elected last night.

In an autumn GE there’s going to be a lot of three way marginals like Peterborough, where 30% of a split vote will be enough to win. It would be interesting to research what the effect of the higher GE turnout would have on a seat like this.

148grss said:

brendan16 said:

kinabalu said:

Given how close it was one must think that if Nigel Farage himself had stood for the BP he would probably have won the seat.

I wonder if he regrets not doing so?

As it is, precious momentum has been lost.

Does he want to be an MP of one in the Commons with constant boos and heckling on the limited occasions he gets to speak. He would presumably have to sit on the opposition benches with the SNP. LDs, Greens and Soubry's party.

They dod have a pretty strong locally known candidate - but clearly unlike Labour and the Tories who had been fighting this tight marginal for 20 plus years little local organisation particularly in terms of postal voting and a general GOTV operation (as they don't yet know who or where they are). Developing that in 3-4 weeks is difficult in a by election context where parties can focus resources - and so many votes are cast well before polling day.

I dunno, the Farage paradox still seems to hold strong. I think BXP would have got more votes, but I imagine Labours "Us or Farage" messaging would have made them get more votes.

One of the clever moves was finding someone who seemed like a reasonable Toryesque candidate who wasn't Farage. It just seems that maybe Lab Leavers still care more about left v right politics than Tory Leavers, who care more about Brexit.

He was a great candidate. If you like that sort of thing. Farage I'm sure was setting himself up to be the puppet master. As it is, with his slinking off at the moment of defeat, he seems frit. Plus the R4 interviews today seem like those of a bad loser.

kinabalu said:

Given how close it was one must think that if Nigel Farage himself had stood for the BP he would probably have won the seat.

I wonder if he regrets not doing so?

As it is, precious momentum has been lost.

I wonder whether private polling was suggesting that this would be difficult which is why Farage gave it a miss. The 2014 defectors both had private polling done before their decisiond.