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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Peterborough by-election betting – the final 12 hours
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Peterborough by-election betting – the final 12 hours
Chart of Betfair exchange price movements from betdta.io
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48550452
Hoping that is good enough for Betfair, split infinitive and all ?
And another victory for Remain.....just!
If I ran Betfair, I'd be thinking about voiding the market, especially as their Help Desk team has been reported to have given conflicting advice. As punters, we are basically betting on which way Betfair will jump rather than when Theresa May departs.
Must admit, I am surprised. Kudos to anyone who backed Labour.
Glad to see TBP defeated though, especially with our pro-Leave media. According to the Guardian 'Farage left the count through a backdoor just minutes before the result was announced.'. Didn't, apparently speak to reporters.
Turns out Farage's racism isn't the vote winner Pollard was hoping it would be, turns out the younger generation don't share his hateful values. What a shame....
At least I didn't lose. I would have won more if my early 200/1 on the LibDems had won!
My reasoning was simply that no one really knew what was going on and yet the Brexit party odds were very short. Knowing that the Brexit party probably didn’t know who their voters were or have experienced by-election campaigners also influenced me. Finally, Peterborough is not a seat particularly suited to the Brexit party. They had the momentum but that was it.
Corbyn's Labour should be proud to have such a woman in their party.
I knew their ground game would be shit.
Their candidate admitted it on BBC news this morning.
All in all, a good show by Labour.
Con 22.5%, Lab 26.6%, LD 17.1%, Brex 21.4%
Con 193
Lab 291
LD 36
Brex 54
Grn 1
PC 3
SNP
53
NI 18
Lab minority, 35 short of majority.
Of the 24 LD gains, 2 are from Lab and 22 are from Con.
of the 54 Brex gains, 7 are from Lab and 47 from Con.
The Tories are being eaten from all sides. Labour gain 29 seats on 2017 in spite of 14% drop in share.
Although the above predictions will be wrong, the basic underlying pattern is clear.
BXP biggest ‘losers’ of the night but have shown they can attract substantial votes.
Lib Dems continuing to improve their position.
Labour will be delighted to hold this and this helps shore up Corbyns position.
Tories will be pleased their vote didn’t collapse and shows they can potentially pull things back depending on the leadership change.
What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.
It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.
Good to see the grin wiped off Farage's ugly mug, hopefully infighting to start shortly in the BXP. Anti-semitic Corbynista not my taste but could be critical in a VONC.
☺
I think it is all priced in now. No one else will change their mind or vote over Labours anti-semitism problem.
Something to chew over next time is enjoying five-star roast beef and claret."
Sky News
The only Tory leader in the twentieth century who handed them over to somebody else - leaving aside Bonar Law and Anthony Eden who were both on sick leave at the time they resigned - was Edward Heath, who began the longest sulk in history by asking Robert Carr to act as leader until the conclusion of the leadership election.
I would argue that she officially ceases to be leader today. Acting leader is not the same as leader.
‘Vote Tory, get Corbyn’. Rolls eyes.
Well done but this morning I am just relieved Farage has been humiliated and strangely fled the scene showing him up as a coward. I would however issue a word of warning to labour proclaiming this as a great victory when labour lost 17% of their vote
The show moves on now to the leadership race and if anything I believe Boris's chance has improved after a reasonable conservative showing last night and he is probably the only conservative who can attack Farage and Corbyn with some success
If loads of right-on people you generally agree with say, or agree with, guarded, carefully-worded borderline racist comments, those comments slowly becomes normalised. It is then easier to sink further down into the abyss and accept worse comments.
And social media is full of little exclusive rooms that act as direct sinkholes into racism.
(Needless to say, this works in many directions.)
It's not quite correct to say the CIA 'helped to set up' Al-Qaeda. That was formed out of the mujahideen groups in Afghanistan, which in turn had been around since before the Soviet invasion. However, following the Soviet invasion the CIA funnelled a lot of money to them in order to maximise the damage and disruption to the Soviet puppet state. In fact Al Qaeda as an official organisation began when bin Laden's money began replacing this CIA money.
A phrase about sowing winds and reaping whirlwinds springs to mind, but I think it's going a bit far to say they 'set it up.'
It seems to be part of the job description.
Another Jew hating MP though is bad news for the Uk - let’s hope that she is either ousted in 2022 or before hand.
It's insinuating that ISIS were not responsible for their actions: it was the responsibility of the evil Americans and Israelis (code for 'Jews'). Blame them, not ISIS.
As ever, last month I think people got rather over excited at a low turn out election on a single issue with a single issue party standing.
Cons deliver Brexit they will win the next GE against Jew hating Labour.
The Allies were in Western Europe before D Day!
But at a time when we have a seriously racist party in our midst and a nasty xenophobic one grabbing it's coat tails far from seeing Corbyn as a racist I see him as one of the few bastions standing against it.