56,010 /114325 = 0.49 + a bit of UKIP collapse = 7100 votes or so.
Lib Dems likely over 10,000 I think.
If there is a Brecon by election depends whether it is before or after the Tory leadership result.
If before then the Eurosceptic vote will be split between the Brexit Party and Tories again as last night and the LDs will likely win it, if after and Boris wins for instance then he will win back Brexit Party voters and with Eurosceptic voters largely united behind the Tories that could enable a Tory hold.
Do not forget last night that while Labour did hold on the Brexit Party plus Tory plus UKIP vote combined was over 50%
The Tories would have lost many if not most of their committed leavers, so counting the residue as leavers is clearly misleading.
You are going to find that hard Brexit is a lot less popular than you so glibly assume.
Farage is clearly disappointed, and is right to be. In about the most promising circumstances you could imagine, he still couldn't get a seat in the House of Commons.
I think there are several strategic issues to consider: one has been the association of TBP Ltd. with Trump and also the far-Right over the past couple of weeks. The visit of Trump, who is genuinely loathed by an extraordinary number of Brits, underlined that the US will take a "robust" attitude to any trade deal, including putting the NHS on the table, and that Farage and Johnson are Trump's analogues in the UK. It was, I think enough to make defecting Labour voters think twice, I also think the Anti "neo-Fascist" Milkshake meme has had some impact by crystallizing how polarizing Farage is. Also in "on the ground" campaigning TBP Ltd. has inherited the weakness of UKIP- all air and no ground- and Labour pulled out all the stops in a ruthless, well-targeted GOTV.
For the Tories, unalloyed woe. TBP Ltd. is eating their lunch and yet if they go for No Deal, then they probably split and are most likely finished as a government force for a long time. Their voters are less no deal or right wing than their members. If they give in to the No Dealers they will lose the moderates as well as the Heid-bangers. If the Party holds the line on some kind of deal, they might survive, but the candidates seem more determined to play games than to set out a course to safety. The Tories are getting the blame for the Brexit balls-up.
There was no chance at all of the Lib Dems winning Peterborough, and yet they increased their vote substantially against a very effective Labour squeeze. On the same night, a massive by-election win in Ross on Wye. So in areas of former strength they are now ahead of their pre-2010 numbers. Under FPTP they have to concentrate their vote in areas of strength. So, if they are polling nationally in the high teens but in Peterborough 12%, and Ross 75%. then this suggests that they can get back into the 50-100 seat range where they can be effective in the House of Commons.
Meanwhile Farage will face a lot of head wind over his finances and allegations of serious malfeasance from the EP- and they will prosecute. That, the Johnson case, and a general lack of transparency about links to Bannon and the Russian rumours is creating an aroma of sleaze. After Bridgend, the mood music has changed to the point where it will be incredibly difficult to finally go.
A Tory new leader will still try to get the UK out, the relentless problems of a deeply divided party will continue, So I guess, despite the bravado, we will see a further extension and continuing limbo, and the decline of the Tories, even beyond current critical levels..
So I think we can see the path back to Remain is still there, whereas the paths to Leave are getting more difficult.
No wonder Farage left early to consider his position.
I wonder how many potential BXP voters were put off by being reminded in the last few days how far up Trump's backside their leader has his head?
Doing the same to Bush did Blair huge damage and Bush for all his unpopularity was not Trump. There is a sense that Leavers are just thicko voting fodder. A lesson for Boris perhaps
Never has an opposition hold in a by-election been such a surprise.
Labour won thanks to enough Tory voters sticking with the Conservatives.
A disappointing night for the LibDems - some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was actually a rejection of the Brexit party. Those left wing Remainers who might have voted for the LibDems but instead voted tactically for Labour to stop the Brexit party wouldn't have been thinking "Do I approve of the Labour policy on 2nd Ref." They'd be thinking "I must help stop the Brexit Party winning."
The result has no relevance to Labour's convoluted policy on 2nd Ref,
EDIT: Nevertheless, you're probably right. Some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was a rejection of the two extreme positions of No Deal and second referendum.
Labour moved toward a second referendum during the campaign in an attempt to shore up its support.
56,010 /114325 = 0.49 + a bit of UKIP collapse = 7100 votes or so.
Lib Dems likely over 10,000 I think.
If there is a Brecon by election depends whether it is before or after the Tory leadership result.
If before then the Eurosceptic vote will be split between the Brexit Party and Tories again as last night and the LDs will likely win it, if after and Boris wins for instance then he will win back Brexit Party voters and with Eurosceptic voters largely united behind the Tories that could enable a Tory hold.
Do not forget last night that while Labour did hold on the Brexit Party plus Tory plus UKIP vote combined was over 50%
Voters are not soldiers on the battlefield to be ordered from one party column to another.
Never has an opposition hold in a by-election been such a surprise.
Labour won thanks to enough Tory voters sticking with the Conservatives.
A disappointing night for the LibDems - some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was actually a rejection of the Brexit party. Those left wing Remainers who might have voted for the LibDems but instead voted tactically for Labour to stop the Brexit party wouldn't have been thinking "Do I approve of the Labour policy on 2nd Ref." They'd be thinking "I must help stop the Brexit Party winning."
The result has no relevance to Labour's convoluted policy on 2nd Ref,
EDIT: Nevertheless, you're probably right. Some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was a rejection of the two extreme positions of No Deal and second referendum.
There you go! We were right.
And so am I.
In a constituency which was 39% Remain the LibDems got 12%.
The voters of Peterborough have just said 'Bollocks to the LibDems'.
The Remainers said "Bollocks to Brexit" and voted tactically for the Labour party.
I think there will be a lot more tactical voting by Remainers at the next GE. As we all know, and not to make an issue of it, Remainers, in general - not all, are more intelligent than Leavers. I think that is indisputable.
Is there an offence of leaverophobia or anti-leaverism? I can't keep up with what is not PC these days.
Its not the story you were expecting is it.
The LibDems had the big momentum and a real opportunity and you didn't achieve.
I think the LibDems held their fire in Peterborough. I have had emails from LibDem HQ asking for help in Brecon and Radnor on the recall but had none asking for help in Peterborough, which is unusual.
Admittedly I had a 200/1 punt on the LibDems in Peterborough placed just after the Euros, based on momentum, but didn't really expect to win it given their tiny base there.
Since when did LibDems 'hold their fire' in byelections.
Face it, 'Bollocks to Brexit' goes down well in nice upper-middle class areas.
But it doesn't in the likes of Peterborough - nor do the LibDems have other policies which are relevant in such places.
Would TBP have won with Farage as the candidate? My suspicion is that they would, as he would have brought more media coverage and they probably won the air war but lost the ground war. But it's impossible to know.
I suspect so. And I hope that some of the strategists will today sit down with Farage and point to the problem: 1. BXP had a nobody candidate. "I'm voting for Farage" is an easier pitch if you'd be voting actually for Farage and not a nobody proxy 2. BXP+Con won 50.3% of the vote. 51.5% if you add in UKIP. A clear majority for clear leave parties with the split vote letting in the other camp. A clear leader and they would have won 3. Brexit is THE issue. But its far from the only issue, and refusing to speak about any other policy area restricts your ability to reach voters. A 4. The new political paradigm is alliances. Con / Brexit / UKIP contesting each other and they lose. Lab / LD / Green / Nats all contesting each other and they lose. Labour win despite crashing 17% of share away because Leave split their vote. Had Remain voters been less tactical and given the LibDems even a few hundred more votes Labour would have lost.
So - who will be best at forging cross party alliances? Boris Johnson and Nige Farage? Or Jeremy Corbyn and Jo Swinson(?)
Never has an opposition hold in a by-election been such a surprise.
Labour won thanks to enough Tory voters sticking with the Conservatives.
A disappointing night for the LibDems - some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was actually a rejection of the Brexit party. Those left wing Remainers who might have voted for the LibDems but instead voted tactically for Labour to stop the Brexit party wouldn't have been thinking "Do I approve of the Labour policy on 2nd Ref." They'd be thinking "I must help stop the Brexit Party winning."
The result has no relevance to Labour's convoluted policy on 2nd Ref,
EDIT: Nevertheless, you're probably right. Some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was a rejection of the two extreme positions of No Deal and second referendum.
There you go! We were right.
And so am I.
In a constituency which was 39% Remain the LibDems got 12%.
The voters of Peterborough have just said 'Bollocks to the LibDems'.
The Remainers said "Bollocks to Brexit" and voted tactically for the Labour party.
I think there will be a lot more tactical voting by Remainers at the next GE. As we all know, and not to make an issue of it, Remainers, in general - not all, are more intelligent than Leavers. I think that is indisputable.
Is there an offence of leaverophobia or anti-leaverism? I can't keep up with what is not PC these days.
Its not the story you were expecting is it.
The LibDems had the big momentum and a real opportunity and you didn't achieve.
I’m a LibDemmer these days. Voted for them in the 2017 GE and of course in the Euros.
I don’t live in Peterborough but if I had I would have voted tactically for Labour to prevent a No Deal extremist entering parliament - especially with numbers on a knife edge.
Even with the Lib Dem surge, they never stood a chance.
56,010 /114325 = 0.49 + a bit of UKIP collapse = 7100 votes or so.
Lib Dems likely over 10,000 I think.
If there is a Brecon by election depends whether it is before or after the Tory leadership result.
If before then the Eurosceptic vote will be split between the Brexit Party and Tories again as last night and the LDs will likely win it, if after and Boris wins for instance then he will win back Brexit Party voters and with Eurosceptic voters largely united behind the Tories that could enable a Tory hold.
Do not forget last night that while Labour did hold on the Brexit Party plus Tory plus UKIP vote combined was over 50%
Just for once show some humility and accept that your cherry picking of polls was flawed. You’ve been saying for weeks that the Brexit Party was going to walk Peterborough.
I wonder how many potential BXP voters were put off by being reminded in the last few days how far up Trump's backside their leader has his head?
Doing the same to Bush did Blair huge damage and Bush for all his unpopularity was not Trump. There is a sense that Leavers are just thicko voting fodder. A lesson for Boris perhaps
The Brexit Party and Tories combined got 50% of the vote last night in Peterborough.
At the European Parliament elections the Brexit Party and Tories combined got 49% in the Peterborough local authority area so there was no movement from Brexit Party to Labour since the European elections but there was movement from Brexit Party to Tory and that enabled Labour to win (helped also by squeezing the LDs)
Never has an opposition hold in a by-election been such a surprise.
Labour won thanks to enough Tory voters sticking with the Conservatives.
A disappointing night for the LibDems - some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was actually a rejection of the Brexit party. Those left wing Remainers who might have voted for the LibDems but instead voted tactically for Labour to stop the Brexit party wouldn't have been thinking "Do I approve of the Labour policy on 2nd Ref." They'd be thinking "I must help stop the Brexit Party winning."
The result has no relevance to Labour's convoluted policy on 2nd Ref,
EDIT: Nevertheless, you're probably right. Some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was a rejection of the two extreme positions of No Deal and second referendum.
There you go! We were right.
And so am I.
In a constituency which was 39% Remain the LibDems got 12%.
The voters of Peterborough have just said 'Bollocks to the LibDems'.
The Remainers said "Bollocks to Brexit" and voted tactically for the Labour party.
I think there will be a lot more tactical voting by Remainers at the next GE. As we all know, and not to make an issue of it, Remainers, in general - not all, are more intelligent than Leavers. I think that is indisputable.
Is there an offence of leaverophobia or anti-leaverism? I can't keep up with what is not PC these days.
Its not the story you were expecting is it.
The LibDems had the big momentum and a real opportunity and you didn't achieve.
3% to 12% is in line with the national polls, and not a bad result.
It's actually better for anti-Brexiters that voters use their intelligence to identify the party best placed locally to beat the right, than it is for remainers to switch to the LibDems in every seat.
The ideal result for the LibDems would have been Farage winning with the LibDems second.
Its better for those with extreme positions to crush the moderate centre.
Having been in the moderate centre many times the LibDems know that very well.
One other factor to keep in mind - the stories about Labour's membership being demoralised are vastly exaggerated. Most of us are motivated and ready to knock ourselves out working for a Labour victory - at a micro level, it's how we took seats in deepest Surrey in my patch, and at a macro level the mobilisation of members to help in Peterborough was quite astonishing. BXP has a big army too, but an untrained one. The LibDems are excellent campaigners but don't have the numbers for this sort of battle royale. And the Tory membership is mostly AWOL.
The LibDems have a high capacity to pull in activists from across the country when it matters. They didn't throw much at all into this campaign until after the Euros and even then it wasn't full tilt.
I can't judge how strong your effort was, but as a general rule it's a mistake to make a half-effort - I think one needs to either go for it and win, or don't go for it and shrug off the result. Making a reasonably serious effort and coming out with a blah result is the worst of both worlds.
Rochdale P - mmm, it's clearly patchy in your area, but you're a bit torn yourself, aren't you? Weren't you saying a couple of weeks ago that voting Labour in Peterborough was a mark of shame, but you're cheering (sort of) this morning? I agree there are plenty of inactive members, as always, but I don't think you can disagree that this by-election showed an awful lot of active ones. When push comes to shove, most of us pitch in, and I hope you will too, rather than facilitate government by some Tory ultra or Farage.
Never has an opposition hold in a by-election been such a surprise.
Labour won thanks to enough Tory voters sticking with the Conservatives.
A disappointing night for the LibDems - some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was actually a rejection of the Brexit party. Those left wing Remainers who might have voted for the LibDems but instead voted tactically for Labour to stop the Brexit party wouldn't have been thinking "Do I approve of the Labour policy on 2nd Ref." They'd be thinking "I must help stop the Brexit Party winning."
The result has no relevance to Labour's convoluted policy on 2nd Ref,
EDIT: Nevertheless, you're probably right. Some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was a rejection of the two extreme positions of No Deal and second referendum.
There you go! We were right.
And so am I.
In a constituency which was 39% Remain the LibDems got 12%.
The voters of Peterborough have just said 'Bollocks to the LibDems'.
The Remainers said "Bollocks to Brexit" and voted tactically for the Labour party.
I think there will be a lot more tactical voting by Remainers at the next GE. As we all know, and not to make an issue of it, Remainers, in general - not all, are more intelligent than Leavers. I think that is indisputable.
Is there an offence of leaverophobia or anti-leaverism? I can't keep up with what is not PC these days.
Its not the story you were expecting is it.
The LibDems had the big momentum and a real opportunity and you didn't achieve.
I think the LibDems held their fire in Peterborough. I have had emails from LibDem HQ asking for help in Brecon and Radnor on the recall but had none asking for help in Peterborough, which is unusual.
Admittedly I had a 200/1 punt on the LibDems in Peterborough placed just after the Euros, based on momentum, but didn't really expect to win it given their tiny base there.
Since when did LibDems 'hold their fire' in byelections.
Face it, 'Bollocks to Brexit' goes down well in nice upper-middle class areas.
But it doesn't in the likes of Peterborough - nor do the LibDems have other policies which are relevant in such places.
I am a member of the LDs for an near adjacent constituency, and got no call to help.
LDs certainly do well in nice middle class areas. There was a time when the Tories used to, but they seem rather toxic now.
Never has an opposition hold in a by-election been such a surprise.
Labour won thanks to enough Tory voters sticking with the Conservatives.
A disappointing night for the LibDems - some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was actually a rejection of the Brexit party. Those left wing Remainers who might have voted for the LibDems but instead voted tactically for Labour to stop the Brexit party wouldn't have been thinking "Do I approve of the Labour policy on 2nd Ref." They'd be thinking "I must help stop the Brexit Party winning."
The result has no relevance to Labour's convoluted policy on 2nd Ref,
EDIT: Nevertheless, you're probably right. Some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was a rejection of the two extreme positions of No Deal and second referendum.
There you go! We were right.
And so am I.
In a constituency which was 39% Remain the LibDems got 12%.
The voters of Peterborough have just said 'Bollocks to the LibDems'.
The Remainers said "Bollocks to Brexit" and voted tactically for the Labour party.
I think there will be a lot more tactical voting by Remainers at the next GE. As we all know, and not to make an issue of it, Remainers, in general - not all, are more intelligent than Leavers. I think that is indisputable.
Is there an offence of leaverophobia or anti-leaverism? I can't keep up with what is not PC these days.
Except the new Labour MP refused point blank to back a second EU referendum when interviewed last night and fully endorsed instead Corbyn's plan for a Brexit Deal that protects 'jobs and the economy.'
This was a win for both Corbyn and his Brexit plans it was not a win for Remainers, that would have required a better LD or Green performance ....
.... which would have allowed the Brexit party to win which would not have been a win for Remainers
I wonder how many potential BXP voters were put off by being reminded in the last few days how far up Trump's backside their leader has his head?
Doing the same to Bush did Blair huge damage and Bush for all his unpopularity was not Trump. There is a sense that Leavers are just thicko voting fodder. A lesson for Boris perhaps
The Brexit Party and Tories combined got 50% of the vote last night in Peterborough.
At the European Parliament elections the Brexit Party and Tories combined got 49% in the Peterborough local authority area so there was no movement from Brexit Party to Labour since the European elections but there was movement from Brexit Party to Tory and that enabled Labour to win (helped also by squeezing the LDs)
The two areas are not the same.
The Peterborough constituency is smaller and better for Labour.
56,010 /114325 = 0.49 + a bit of UKIP collapse = 7100 votes or so.
Lib Dems likely over 10,000 I think.
If there is a Brecon by election depends whether it is before or after the Tory leadership result.
If before then the Eurosceptic vote will be split between the Brexit Party and Tories again as last night and the LDs will likely win it, if after and Boris wins for instance then he will win back Brexit Party voters and with Eurosceptic voters largely united behind the Tories that could enable a Tory hold.
Do not forget last night that while Labour did hold on the Brexit Party plus Tory plus UKIP vote combined was over 50%
Just for once show some humility and accept that your cherry picking of polls was flawed. You’ve been saying for weeks that the Brexit Party was going to walk Peterborough.
No I did not say the Brexit Party were going to walk it although I said it was likely to win it but Labour could hold on with GOTV.
The main reason the Labour Party held the seat was the Tory vote held up much better than expected
I wonder how many potential BXP voters were put off by being reminded in the last few days how far up Trump's backside their leader has his head?
Doing the same to Bush did Blair huge damage and Bush for all his unpopularity was not Trump. There is a sense that Leavers are just thicko voting fodder. A lesson for Boris perhaps
The Brexit Party and Tories combined got 50% of the vote last night in Peterborough.
At the European Parliament elections the Brexit Party and Tories combined got 49% in the Peterborough local authority area so there was no movement from Brexit Party to Labour since the European elections but there was movement from Brexit Party to Tory and that enabled Labour to win (helped also by squeezing the LDs)
The two areas are not the same.
The Peterborough constituency is smaller and better for Labour.
So in a sense that is even better for the combined Brexit Party and Tory vote
Never has an opposition hold in a by-election been such a surprise.
Labour won thanks to enough Tory voters sticking with the Conservatives.
A disappointing night for the LibDems - some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was actually a rejection of the Brexit party. Those left wing Remainers who might have voted for the LibDems but instead voted tactically for Labour to stop the Brexit party wouldn't have been thinking "Do I approve of the Labour policy on 2nd Ref." They'd be thinking "I must help stop the Brexit Party winning."
The result has no relevance to Labour's convoluted policy on 2nd Ref,
EDIT: Nevertheless, you're probably right. Some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was a rejection of the two extreme positions of No Deal and second referendum.
There you go! We were right.
And so am I.
In a constituency which was 39% Remain the LibDems got 12%.
The voters of Peterborough have just said 'Bollocks to the LibDems'.
Never has an opposition hold in a by-election been such a surprise.
Labour won thanks to enough Tory voters sticking with the Conservatives.
A disappointing night for the LibDems - some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was actually a rejection of the Brexit party. Those left wing Remainers who might have voted for the LibDems but instead voted tactically for Labour to stop the Brexit party wouldn't have been thinking "Do I approve of the Labour policy on 2nd Ref." They'd be thinking "I must help stop the Brexit Party winning."
The result has no relevance to Labour's convoluted policy on 2nd Ref,
EDIT: Nevertheless, you're probably right. Some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was a rejection of the two extreme positions of No Deal and second referendum.
There you go! We were right.
And so am I.
In a constituency which was 39% Remain the LibDems got 12%.
The voters of Peterborough have just said 'Bollocks to the LibDems'.
They actually said, “let’s tactically vote for Labour to keep out the no-deal extremists”
Never has an opposition hold in a by-election been such a surprise.
Labour won thanks to enough Tory voters sticking with the Conservatives.
A disappointing night for the LibDems - some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was actually a rejection of the Brexit party. Those left wing Remainers who might have voted for the LibDems but instead voted tactically for Labour to stop the Brexit party wouldn't have been thinking "Do I approve of the Labour policy on 2nd Ref." They'd be thinking "I must help stop the Brexit Party winning."
The result has no relevance to Labour's convoluted policy on 2nd Ref,
EDIT: Nevertheless, you're probably right. Some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was a rejection of the two extreme positions of No Deal and second referendum.
There you go! We were right.
And so am I.
In a constituency which was 39% Remain the LibDems got 12%.
The voters of Peterborough have just said 'Bollocks to the LibDems'.
The Remainers said "Bollocks to Brexit" and voted tactically for the Labour party.
I think there will be a lot more tactical voting by Remainers at the next GE. As we all know, and not to make an issue of it, Remainers, in general - not all, are more intelligent than Leavers. I think that is indisputable.
Is there an offence of leaverophobia or anti-leaverism? I can't keep up with what is not PC these days.
Except the new Labour MP refused point blank to back a second EU referendum when interviewed last night and fully endorsed instead Corbyn's plan for a Brexit Deal that protects 'jobs and the economy.'
This was a win for both Corbyn and his Brexit plans it was not a win for Remainers, that would have required a better LD or Green performance ....
.... which would have allowed the Brexit party to win which would not have been a win for Remainers
Nor was a victory for a pro Brexit Deal candidate a victory for Remainers, they stopped the Brexit Party winning they did not elect a Remainer
* If you are going to call TBP 'far right' then you should call Labour 'far left'.
What Corbyn and, say, Gove, have in common is that they believe government should be enacted by politicians according to published policy. Obviously they disagree wildly over the policy. Farage is different. He attacks politicians as a category, even though he is one himself, despises policy, bigs up a narrative of betrayal and of the strong leader rescuing the nation.
Do me a favour folks. Stop calling the Brexit Party far right. As a brown Muslim this really scares me.
Because what liberal white people don't realise they are doing is that they are normalising the fat right. When you call everyone you disagree with gat right people think far right isn't such a bad thing, so one day when an actual Nazi comes along (and they will) ready to win people will ignore your cries of them being extreme. They will think you are crying wolf.
So attack Nigel on his policies if you have to bit stop calling his kind far right. Tommy Robinson for example is a different story.
We're in a state of flux where it's difficult to categorise absolutely. There are people (even on here) for example who have applied the same argument to Tommy Robinson, that he's not a racist with fascist tendencies, just a slightly misguided, patriotic lad with 'legitimate' concerns.
(and apart from anything else it would be difficult to attack Nigel on his policies since he's made the genius decision not to have any)
Never has an opposition hold in a by-election been such a surprise.
Labour won thanks to enough Tory voters sticking with the Conservatives.
A disappointing night for the LibDems - some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was actually a rejection of the Brexit party. Those left wing Remainers who might have voted for the LibDems but instead voted tactically for Labour to stop the Brexit party wouldn't have been thinking "Do I approve of the Labour policy on 2nd Ref." They'd be thinking "I must help stop the Brexit Party winning."
The result has no relevance to Labour's convoluted policy on 2nd Ref,
EDIT: Nevertheless, you're probably right. Some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was a rejection of the two extreme positions of No Deal and second referendum.
There you go! We were right.
And so am I.
In a constituency which was 39% Remain the LibDems got 12%.
The voters of Peterborough have just said 'Bollocks to the LibDems'.
The Remainers said "Bollocks to Brexit" and voted tactically for the Labour party.
I think there will be a lot more tactical voting by Remainers at the next GE. As we all know, and not to make an issue of it, Remainers, in general - not all, are more intelligent than Leavers. I think that is indisputable.
Is there an offence of leaverophobia or anti-leaverism? I can't keep up with what is not PC these days.
Its not the story you were expecting is it.
The LibDems had the big momentum and a real opportunity and you didn't achieve.
I’m a LibDemmer these days. Voted for them in the 2017 GE and of course in the Euros.
I don’t live in Peterborough but if I had I would have voted tactically for Labour to prevent a No Deal extremist entering parliament - especially with numbers on a knife edge.
Even with the Lib Dem surge, they never stood a chance.
I am quite happy this morning.
I think this is an important point. In all the thinking about what Labour should do, I think if they stick to being pro-Brexit (just anti a Tory Brexit), I think they can count on Lib Dem/Greens to vote tactically in places like Peterborough.
56,010 /114325 = 0.49 + a bit of UKIP collapse = 7100 votes or so.
Lib Dems likely over 10,000 I think.
If there is a Brecon by election depends whether it is before or after the Tory leadership result.
If before then the Eurosceptic vote will be split between the Brexit Party and Tories again as last night and the LDs will likely win it, if after and Boris wins for instance then he will win back Brexit Party voters and with Eurosceptic voters largely united behind the Tories that could enable a Tory hold.
Do not forget last night that while Labour did hold on the Brexit Party plus Tory plus UKIP vote combined was over 50%
Voters are not soldiers on the battlefield to be ordered from one party column to another.
I disagree, the fact Boris is the likely next Tory leader now on a hard Brexit platform kept many Tories in the fold last night
You racist, hypocritical, war mongering, privatising, Tory lite bastards don't stand a chance. Use every dirty trick you can, we'll beat ya.
*giggles* Its schoolboy politics for you isn't It? You've already said you don't care about winning, its just about being right isn't it? Corbyn repulses people - OUR people. If you don't want to win then keep going. You literally couldn't give a flying fuck about the people dying under the Tories - we need a Labour government to save lives. The longer we go on with the stalinist clique at the top, the further away that gets.
We lost 17% of our vote, holding a seat with a 31% vote share. We've seen that high teens % share collapse in election after election since 2015 - what do you think that does to us replicated elsewhere?
As a Labour Remainer although some might argue this result helps Corbyn it also reduces some of the BP momentum .
If I was in Peterborough I would have after lots of thought come down on voting Labour, I hate Brexit but utterly detest Farage .
Not sure what went wrong for the BP . All the stars aligned favourably , 61% Leave area and coming off the Euro elections win . Even though it was close , they lost . The narrative of all conquering BP, people want no deal has hit the buffers no matter how much spin Farage and co do.
56,010 /114325 = 0.49 + a bit of UKIP collapse = 7100 votes or so.
Lib Dems likely over 10,000 I think.
If there is a Brecon by election depends whether it is before or after the Tory leadership result.
If before then the Eurosceptic vote will be split between the Brexit Party and Tories again as last night and the LDs will likely win it, if after and Boris wins for instance then he will win back Brexit Party voters and with Eurosceptic voters largely united behind the Tories that could enable a Tory hold.
Do not forget last night that while Labour did hold on the Brexit Party plus Tory plus UKIP vote combined was over 50%
Just for once show some humility and accept that your cherry picking of polls was flawed. You’ve been saying for weeks that the Brexit Party was going to walk Peterborough.
No I did not say the Brexit Party were going to walk it although I said it was likely to win it but Labour could hold on with GOTV.
The main reason the Labour Party held the seat was the Tory vote held up much better than expected
Never has an opposition hold in a by-election been such a surprise.
Labour won thanks to enough Tory voters sticking with the Conservatives.
A disappointing night for the LibDems - some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was actually a rejection of the Brexit party. Those left wing Remainers who might have voted for the LibDems but instead voted tactically for Labour to stop the Brexit party wouldn't have been thinking "Do I approve of the Labour policy on 2nd Ref." They'd be thinking "I must help stop the Brexit Party winning."
The result has no relevance to Labour's convoluted policy on 2nd Ref,
EDIT: Nevertheless, you're probably right. Some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was a rejection of the two extreme positions of No Deal and second referendum.
There you go! We were right.
And so am I.
In a constituency which was 39% Remain the LibDems got 12%.
The voters of Peterborough have just said 'Bollocks to the LibDems'.
The Remainers said "Bollocks to Brexit" and voted tactically for the Labour party.
I think there will be a lot more tactical voting by Remainers at the next GE. As we all know, and not to make an issue of it, Remainers, in general - not all, are more intelligent than Leavers. I think that is indisputable.
Is there an offence of leaverophobia or anti-leaverism? I can't keep up with what is not PC these days.
Its not the story you were expecting is it.
The LibDems had the big momentum and a real opportunity and you didn't achieve.
I’m a LibDemmer these days. Voted for them in the 2017 GE and of course in the Euros.
I don’t live in Peterborough but if I had I would have voted tactically for Labour to prevent a No Deal extremist entering parliament - especially with numbers on a knife edge.
Even with the Lib Dem surge, they never stood a chance.
I am quite happy this morning.
Its certainly a bad result for the No Deal supporters.
Never has an opposition hold in a by-election been such a surprise.
Labour won thanks to enough Tory voters sticking with the Conservatives.
A disappointing night for the LibDems - some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was actually a rejection of the Brexit party. Those left wing Remainers who might have voted for the LibDems but instead voted tactically for Labour to stop the Brexit party wouldn't have been thinking "Do I approve of the Labour policy on 2nd Ref." They'd be thinking "I must help stop the Brexit Party winning."
The result has no relevance to Labour's convoluted policy on 2nd Ref,
EDIT: Nevertheless, you're probably right. Some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was a rejection of the two extreme positions of No Deal and second referendum.
There you go! We were right.
And so am I.
In a constituency which was 39% Remain the LibDems got 12%.
The voters of Peterborough have just said 'Bollocks to the LibDems'.
The Remainers said "Bollocks to Brexit" and voted tactically for the Labour party.
I think there will be a lot more tactical voting by Remainers at the next GE. As we all know, and not to make an issue of it, Remainers, in general - not all, are more intelligent than Leavers. I think that is indisputable.
Is there an offence of leaverophobia or anti-leaverism? I can't keep up with what is not PC these days.
Its not the story you were expecting is it.
The LibDems had the big momentum and a real opportunity and you didn't achieve.
I’m a LibDemmer these days. Voted for them in the 2017 GE and of course in the Euros.
I don’t live in Peterborough but if I had I would have voted tactically for Labour to prevent a No Deal extremist entering parliament - especially with numbers on a knife edge.
Even with the Lib Dem surge, they never stood a chance.
I am quite happy this morning.
I think this is an important point. In all the thinking about what Labour should do, I think if they stick to being pro-Brexit (just anti a Tory Brexit), I think they can count on Lib Dem/Greens to vote tactically in places like Peterborough.
This. There is not so much a Remain coalition, more of an anti-hard Brexit one
The big difference between a by-election and the Euro elections is that the former is under first past the post and the latter by a form of proportional representation. In the former people vote tactically to stop parties they do not wish to progress while in the latter they do not have to do that to the same extent
Never has an opposition hold in a by-election been such a surprise.
Labour won thanks to enough Tory voters sticking with the Conservatives.
A disappointing night for the LibDems - some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was actually a rejection of the Brexit party. Those left wing Remainers who might have voted for the LibDems but instead voted tactically for Labour to stop the Brexit party wouldn't have been thinking "Do I approve of the Labour policy on 2nd Ref." They'd be thinking "I must help stop the Brexit Party winning."
The result has no relevance to Labour's convoluted policy on 2nd Ref,
EDIT: Nevertheless, you're probably right. Some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was a rejection of the two extreme positions of No Deal and second referendum.
There you go! We were right.
And so am I.
In a constituency which was 39% Remain the LibDems got 12%.
The voters of Peterborough have just said 'Bollocks to the LibDems'.
Never has an opposition hold in a by-election been such a surprise.
Labour won thanks to enough Tory voters sticking with the Conservatives.
A disappointing night for the LibDems - some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was actually a rejection of the Brexit party. Those left wing Remainers who might have voted for the LibDems but instead voted tactically for Labour to stop the Brexit party wouldn't have been thinking "Do I approve of the Labour policy on 2nd Ref." They'd be thinking "I must help stop the Brexit Party winning."
The result has no relevance to Labour's convoluted policy on 2nd Ref,
EDIT: Nevertheless, you're probably right. Some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was a rejection of the two extreme positions of No Deal and second referendum.
There you go! We were right.
And so am I.
In a constituency which was 39% Remain the LibDems got 12%.
The voters of Peterborough have just said 'Bollocks to the LibDems'.
They actually said, “let’s tactically vote for Labour to keep out the no-deal extremists”
By putting in a Labour candidate who admits she needs anti-semitism training.....
Do me a favour folks. Stop calling the Brexit Party far right. As a brown Muslim this really scares me.
Because what liberal white people don't realise they are doing is that they are normalising the fat right. When you call everyone you disagree with gat right people think far right isn't such a bad thing, so one day when an actual Nazi comes along (and they will) ready to win people will ignore your cries of them being extreme. They will think you are crying wolf.
So attack Nigel on his policies if you have to bit stop calling his kind far right. Tommy Robinson for example is a different story.
There's something in that - the mirror image of people calling anyone who is dubious about Israel an anti-semite. I wouldn't call Farage a fascist or a Nazi, as some do, but he's clearly pretty right-wing in most terms - not just about Europe.
I think that is a welcome reminder that nearly all of our politics in this country takes place within moderate parameters. For all the screaming and abuse I don't see Farage or Corbyn outside those bands. Those that are, like the BNP and Communist parties have never got any real traction and don't have it now. Using extremist terms to seek to brand those that are not diminishes the branding. People should be more moderate in their language.
Talking of which there was a brilliant bit in the D Day celebrations where one of the vets described how his sergeant had spoken to them when their landing craft landed amongst German shells. "Come of chaps, lets get up that beach, quick as you can now, don't dally" was the tone. Not sure it would quite have been phrased that way today.
Unless Rory was back in uniform (with added diffidence)..
56,010 /114325 = 0.49 + a bit of UKIP collapse = 7100 votes or so.
Lib Dems likely over 10,000 I think.
If there is a Brecon by election depends whether it is before or after the Tory leadership result.
If before then the Eurosceptic vote will be split between the Brexit Party and Tories again as last night and the LDs will likely win it, if after and Boris wins for instance then he will win back Brexit Party voters and with Eurosceptic voters largely united behind the Tories that could enable a Tory hold.
Do not forget last night that while Labour did hold on the Brexit Party plus Tory plus UKIP vote combined was over 50%
Just for once show some humility and accept that your cherry picking of polls was flawed. You’ve been saying for weeks that the Brexit Party was going to walk Peterborough.
No I did not say the Brexit Party were going to walk it although I said it was likely to win it but Labour could hold on with GOTV.
The main reason the Labour Party held the seat was the Tory vote held up much better than expected
The big difference between a by-election and the Euro elections is that the former is under first past the post and the latter by a form of proportional representation. In the former people vote tactically to stop parties they do not wish to progress while in the latter they do not have to do that to the same extent
This plus the fact that Tories don't know how to do this is also a factor.
* If you are going to call TBP 'far right' then you should call Labour 'far left'.
What Corbyn and, say, Gove, have in common is that they believe government should be enacted by politicians according to published policy. Obviously they disagree wildly over the policy. Farage is different. He attacks politicians as a category, even though he is one himself, despises policy, bigs up a narrative of betrayal and of the strong leader rescuing the nation.
That's a very good point, and when I think about it, it's one reason I like both Corbyn and Gove personally.
As a Labour Remainer although some might argue this result helps Corbyn it also reduces some of the BP momentum .
If I was in Peterborough I would have after lots of thought come down on voting Labour, I hate Brexit but utterly detest Farage .
Not sure what went wrong for the BP . All the stars aligned favourably , 61% Leave area and coming off the Euro elections win . Even though it was close , they lost . The narrative of all conquering BP, people want no deal has hit the buffers no matter how much spin Farage and co do.
There are other issues that people care about. Plus lifelong allegiances. It's a big step to vote for a party not "your own" (as in fact your own experience demonstrates). Plus if you are a Leaver, then whether on the left or right it would not be a huge leap for you to think that the Brexit messenger is an absolute tosser whom you couldn't vote for.
That said, from standstill to within a few hundred votes of an MP is pretty good going.
56,010 /114325 = 0.49 + a bit of UKIP collapse = 7100 votes or so.
Lib Dems likely over 10,000 I think.
If there is a Brecon by election depends whether it is before or after the Tory leadership result.
If before then the Eurosceptic vote will be split between the Brexit Party and Tories again as last night and the LDs will likely win it, if after and Boris wins for instance then he will win back Brexit Party voters and with Eurosceptic voters largely united behind the Tories that could enable a Tory hold.
Do not forget last night that while Labour did hold on the Brexit Party plus Tory plus UKIP vote combined was over 50%
Just for once show some humility and accept that your cherry picking of polls was flawed. You’ve been saying for weeks that the Brexit Party was going to walk Peterborough.
No I did not say the Brexit Party were going to walk it although I said it was likely to win it but Labour could hold on with GOTV.
The main reason the Labour Party held the seat was the Tory vote held up much better than expected
Never has an opposition hold in a by-election been such a surprise.
Labour won thanks to enough Tory voters sticking with the Conservatives.
A disappointing night for the LibDems - some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was actually a rejection of the Brexit party. Those left wing Remainers who might have voted for the LibDems but instead voted tactically for Labour to stop the Brexit party wouldn't have been thinking "Do I approve of the Labour policy on 2nd Ref." They'd be thinking "I must help stop the Brexit Party winning."
The result has no relevance to Labour's convoluted policy on 2nd Ref,
EDIT: Nevertheless, you're probably right. Some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was a rejection of the two extreme positions of No Deal and second referendum.
There you go! We were right.
And so am I.
In a constituency which was 39% Remain the LibDems got 12%.
The voters of Peterborough have just said 'Bollocks to the LibDems'.
The Remainers said "Bollocks to Brexit" and voted tactically for the Labour party.
I think there will be a lot more tactical voting by Remainers at the next GE. As we all know, and not to make an issue of it, Remainers, in general - not all, are more intelligent than Leavers. I think that is indisputable.
Is there an offence of leaverophobia or anti-leaverism? I can't keep up with what is not PC these days.
Its not the story you were expecting is it.
The LibDems had the big momentum and a real opportunity and you didn't achieve.
I think the LibDems held their fire in Peterborough. I have had emails from LibDem HQ asking for help in Brecon and Radnor on the recall but had none asking for help in Peterborough, which is unusual.
Admittedly I had a 200/1 punt on the LibDems in Peterborough placed just after the Euros, based on momentum, but didn't really expect to win it given their tiny base there.
Since when did LibDems 'hold their fire' in byelections.
Face it, 'Bollocks to Brexit' goes down well in nice upper-middle class areas.
But it doesn't in the likes of Peterborough - nor do the LibDems have other policies which are relevant in such places.
Huh? Peterborough did indeed say "Bollocks to [The] Brexit [Party]"
The big difference between a by-election and the Euro elections is that the former is under first past the post and the latter by a form of proportional representation. In the former people vote tactically to stop parties they do not wish to progress while in the latter they do not have to do that to the same extent
And the Brexit Party, being at an extreme, will find it harder to attract tactical votes.
Great result for all those who loathe Farage and all he stands for. Difficult to talk about racists and anti-semites if his mob had won a seat.
And another victory for Remain.....just!
The new Peterborough MP apparently found it very easy to talk with racists and anti-Semites. She even commented that she enjoys reading such guff!
Corbyn's Labour should be proud to have such a woman in their party.
Very difficult to identify a racist without knowing the person.. Textual analysis is extremely unreliable and certain types of racism such as anti semitism is particularly difficult. Is it anti semitic to say 'Jews are good businessmen' or 'all my Jewish friends are really funny'? Do you think all stereotypes are racist when applied to Jews?
I suspect you know very few Jews which is why you often sound so hysterical when you believe you have found one being insulted
This result shows we could get some truly weird results in a GE. Constituencies with natural right-wing majorities could fall to left wing parties if the vote is split between Conservatives and Brexit. The opposite is alsotrue in some lefty constituencies. Interesting times. The next election might just be the death knell of FPTP.
Never has an opposition hold in a by-election been such a surprise.
Labour won thanks to enough Tory voters sticking with the Conservatives.
A disappointing night for the LibDems - some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was actually a rejection of the Brexit party. Those left wing Remainers who might have voted for the LibDems but instead voted tactically for Labour to stop the Brexit party wouldn't have been thinking "Do I approve of the Labour policy on 2nd Ref." They'd be thinking "I must help stop the Brexit Party winning."
The result has no relevance to Labour's convoluted policy on 2nd Ref,
EDIT: Nevertheless, you're probably right. Some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was a rejection of the two extreme positions of No Deal and second referendum.
There you go! We were right.
And so am I.
In a constituency which was 39% Remain the LibDems got 12%.
The voters of Peterborough have just said 'Bollocks to the LibDems'.
Never has an opposition hold in a by-election been such a surprise.
Labour won thanks to enough Tory voters sticking with the Conservatives.
A disappointing night for the LibDems - some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was actually a rejection of the Brexit party. Those left wing Remainers who might have voted for the LibDems but instead voted tactically for Labour to stop the Brexit party wouldn't have been thinking "Do I approve of the Labour policy on 2nd Ref." They'd be thinking "I must help stop the Brexit Party winning."
The result has no relevance to Labour's convoluted policy on 2nd Ref,
EDIT: Nevertheless, you're probably right. Some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was a rejection of the two extreme positions of No Deal and second referendum.
There you go! We were right.
And so am I.
In a constituency which was 39% Remain the LibDems got 12%.
The voters of Peterborough have just said 'Bollocks to the LibDems'.
They actually said, “let’s tactically vote for Labour to keep out the no-deal extremists”
And the 'Bollocks to Brexit' extremists.
Labour and LibDem combined were 51% in 2017 and 43% in 2019.
There really isn't this army of tactical voters who PBers are moving around.
56,010 /114325 = 0.49 + a bit of UKIP collapse = 7100 votes or so.
Lib Dems likely over 10,000 I think.
If there is a Brecon by election depends whether it is before or after the Tory leadership result.
If before then the Eurosceptic vote will be split between the Brexit Party and Tories again as last night and the LDs will likely win it, if after and Boris wins for instance then he will win back Brexit Party voters and with Eurosceptic voters largely united behind the Tories that could enable a Tory hold.
Do not forget last night that while Labour did hold on the Brexit Party plus Tory plus UKIP vote combined was over 50%
Just for once show some humility and accept that your cherry picking of polls was flawed. You’ve been saying for weeks that the Brexit Party was going to walk Peterborough.
No I did not say the Brexit Party were going to walk it although I said it was likely to win it but Labour could hold on with GOTV.
The main reason the Labour Party held the seat was the Tory vote held up much better than expected
Brexit Party 35%, LDs 20%, Labour 18%, Tories 10%, Greens 5%, UKIP 1%, CUK 1%
I also actually underestimated the Brexit Party and Tory combined voted on 45% when it was 50%.
Where I went wrong was the LDs did much worse than I expected and the Tories did far better than I expected and I am happy to concede that
You were completely wrong. Learn the lesson. Rather than saying "I did not say the Brexit Party were going to walk it" despite having predicted it would win with (working from your %s) a majority of over 5,000.
56,010 /114325 = 0.49 + a bit of UKIP collapse = 7100 votes or so.
Lib Dems likely over 10,000 I think.
If there is a Brecon by election depends whether it is before or after the Tory leadership result.
If before then the Eurosceptic vote will be split between the Brexit Party and Tories again as last night and the LDs will likely win it, if after and Boris wins for instance then he will win back Brexit Party voters and with Eurosceptic voters largely united behind the Tories that could enable a Tory hold.
Do not forget last night that while Labour did hold on the Brexit Party plus Tory plus UKIP vote combined was over 50%
Just for once show some humility and accept that your cherry picking of polls was flawed. You’ve been saying for weeks that the Brexit Party was going to walk Peterborough.
No I did not say the Brexit Party were going to walk it although I said it was likely to win it but Labour could hold on with GOTV.
The main reason the Labour Party held the seat was the Tory vote held up much better than expected
Brexit Party 35%, LDs 20%, Labour 18%, Tories 10%, Greens 5%, UKIP 1%, CUK 1%
Yes, our resident Poll-man got Labour wrong by a whopping 13% [ 18% to 31% ] but, of course, true to his polling instinct over-estimated Brexit Party by 5%, as every pollster does. Even got his own party wrong [ Tories polled almost twice his prediction ] But, then again, the Tories may not be his party anymore. He maybe a Faragist now.
FFor the Tories, unalloyed woe. TBP Ltd. is eating their lunch and yet if they go for No Deal, then they probably split and are most likely finished as a government force for a long time. Their voters are less no deal or right wing than their members. If they give in to the No Dealers they will lose the moderates as well as the Heid-bangers. If the Party holds the line on some kind of deal, they might survive, but the candidates seem more determined to play games than to set out a course to safety. The Tories are getting the blame for the Brexit balls-up.
tbf for all the bluster, there is still only one deal on the table and a leader who has said they will trash it has not yet been elected. In fact I have only heard candidates talking about renegotiation but not that the deal will be thrown out. Although I suppose that might be implied.
Never has an opposition hold in a by-election been such a surprise.
Labour won thanks to enough Tory voters sticking with the Conservatives.
A disappointing night for the LibDems - some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was actually a rejection of the Brexit party. Those left wing Remainers who might have voted for the LibDems but instead voted tactically for Labour to stop the Brexit party wouldn't have been thinking "Do I approve of the Labour policy on 2nd Ref." They'd be thinking "I must help stop the Brexit Party winning."
The result has no relevance to Labour's convoluted policy on 2nd Ref,
EDIT: Nevertheless, you're probably right. Some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was a rejection of the two extreme positions of No Deal and second referendum.
There you go! We were right.
And so am I.
In a constituency which was 39% Remain the LibDems got 12%.
The voters of Peterborough have just said 'Bollocks to the LibDems'.
The Remainers said "Bollocks to Brexit" and voted tactically for the Labour party.
I think there will be a lot more tactical voting by Remainers at the next GE. As we all know, and not to make an issue of it, Remainers, in general - not all, are more intelligent than Leavers. I think that is indisputable.
Is there an offence of leaverophobia or anti-leaverism? I can't keep up with what is not PC these days.
Its not the story you were expecting is it.
The LibDems had the big momentum and a real opportunity and you didn't achieve.
I think the LibDems held their fire in Peterborough. I have had emails from LibDem HQ asking for help in Brecon and Radnor on the recall but had none asking for help in Peterborough, which is unusual.
Admittedly I had a 200/1 punt on the LibDems in Peterborough placed just after the Euros, based on momentum, but didn't really expect to win it given their tiny base there.
Since when did LibDems 'hold their fire' in byelections.
Face it, 'Bollocks to Brexit' goes down well in nice upper-middle class areas.
But it doesn't in the likes of Peterborough - nor do the LibDems have other policies which are relevant in such places.
Huh? Peterborough did indeed say "Bollocks to [The] Brexit [Party]"
They did and that shows there is no majority for No Deal Brexit.
Never has an opposition hold in a by-election been such a surprise.
Labour won thanks to enough Tory voters sticking with the Conservatives.
A disappointing night for the LibDems - some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was actually a rejection of the Brexit party. Those left wing Remainers who might have voted for the LibDems but instead voted tactically for Labour to stop the Brexit party wouldn't have been thinking "Do I approve of the Labour policy on 2nd Ref." They'd be thinking "I must help stop the Brexit Party winning."
The result has no relevance to Labour's convoluted policy on 2nd Ref,
EDIT: Nevertheless, you're probably right. Some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was a rejection of the two extreme positions of No Deal and second referendum.
There you go! We were right.
And so am I.
In a constituency which was 39% Remain the LibDems got 12%.
The voters of Peterborough have just said 'Bollocks to the LibDems'.
Great result for all those who loathe Farage and all he stands for. Difficult to talk about racists and anti-semites if his mob had won a seat.
And another victory for Remain.....just!
The new Peterborough MP apparently found it very easy to talk with racists and anti-Semites. She even commented that she enjoys reading such guff!
Corbyn's Labour should be proud to have such a woman in their party.
Very difficult to identify a racist without knowing the person.. Textual analysis is extremely unreliable and certain types of racism such as anti semitism is particularly difficult. Is it anti semitic to say 'Jews are good businessmen' or 'all my Jewish friends are really funny'? Do you think all stereotypes are racist when applied to Jews?
I suspect you know very few Jews which is why you often sound so hysterical when you believe you have found one being insulted
I suggest that liking a post that contained phrases like "Zionist slave masters" offers at least a clue?
Great result for all those who loathe Farage and all he stands for. Difficult to talk about racists and anti-semites if his mob had won a seat.
And another victory for Remain.....just!
The new Peterborough MP apparently found it very easy to talk with racists and anti-Semites. She even commented that she enjoys reading such guff!
Corbyn's Labour should be proud to have such a woman in their party.
Very difficult to identify a racist without knowing the person.. Textual analysis is extremely unreliable and certain types of racism such as anti semitism is particularly difficult. Is it anti semitic to say 'Jews are good businessmen' or 'all my Jewish friends are really funny'? Do you think all stereotypes are racist when applied to Jews?
I suspect you know very few Jews which is why you often sound so hysterical when you believe you have found one being insulted
"Jews are good businessmen" - yes "all my Jewish friends are really funny" - tail event selection of friends but no.
Labour and Tory votes are hardier than expected, but Labour have the edge and because of unbudgeable support in BAME-heavy areas.
Brexit doesn’t have the ground war ability to fight a GE.
A heavy leave seat (60%+) has defeated the forces of No Deal.
The next election is still looking like a Labour minority government.
A heavy leave seat (60%) voted for Leave parties (52%). The vote share for Remain parties (if you count Labour as that) was 46%. Leave won. But lost because of tactical voting.
Take UNS models and bin them. This kind of the vote was for x so y won instead result is going to happen a lot...!
My modest winnings will just about cover a Danish pastry, but this is a good example of how your head is a better guide to betting than your heart. There were quite a few people on here who like me thought the BP would win, but that the odds on Labour were very generous. But in fact the reason I thought the BP would win was simply that everyone in the mainstream media and on social media were saying they were. The reality was that this by election was unprecedented in terms of what would influence the voters and none of us knew what the outcome would be. So backing a plausible winner with a good price was logical.
Where the Brexit Party failed was expectation management. Nige has a track record of getting a bit carried away, talking up a 'surge' etc when he should have learnt by now that when you campaign you can end up being in a bubble. Lots of helpers and a positive reception in the high street does not a victory make. Caution, caution, caution.
One other factor to keep in mind - the stories about Labour's membership being demoralised are vastly exaggerated. Most of us are motivated and ready to knock ourselves out working for a Labour victory - at a micro level, it's how we took seats in deepest Surrey in my patch, and at a macro level the mobilisation of members to help in Peterborough was quite astonishing. BXP has a big army too, but an untrained one. The LibDems are excellent campaigners but don't have the numbers for this sort of battle royale. And the Tory membership is mostly AWOL.
The LibDems have a high capacity to pull in activists from across the country when it matters. They didn't throw much at all into this campaign until after the Euros and even then it wasn't full tilt.
I can't judge how strong your effort was, but as a general rule it's a mistake to make a half-effort - I think one needs to either go for it and win, or don't go for it and shrug off the result. Making a reasonably serious effort and coming out with a blah result is the worst of both worlds.
Rochdale P - mmm, it's clearly patchy in your area, but you're a bit torn yourself, aren't you? Weren't you saying a couple of weeks ago that voting Labour in Peterborough was a mark of shame, but you're cheering (sort of) this morning? I agree there are plenty of inactive members, as always, but I don't think you can disagree that this by-election showed an awful lot of active ones. When push comes to shove, most of us pitch in, and I hope you will too, rather than facilitate government by some Tory ultra or Farage.
The result at least suggests the LibDems are finally past the drag of the coalition years.
I can only judge by the number of emails I get urging members to go and help. At peak by-election frenzy typically the run rate rises to two or three a day in the final week. For Peterborough, nothing, zero.
I think the party had written off its chances, until the Euros. I believe calls for help went out within Eastern Region after the Euro results, doubtless hoping for better than fourth. But without solid canvassing data this was always unlikely to make much difference, outside the two LibDem held wards.
56,010 /114325 = 0.49 + a bit of UKIP collapse = 7100 votes or so.
Lib Dems likely over 10,000 I think.
If there is a Brecon by election depends whether it is before or after the Tory leadership result.
If before then the Eurosceptic vote will be split between the Brexit Party and Tories again as last night and the LDs will likely win it, if after and Boris wins for instance then he will win back Brexit Party voters and with Eurosceptic voters largely united behind the Tories that could enable a Tory hold.
Do not forget last night that while Labour did hold on the Brexit Party plus Tory plus UKIP vote combined was over 50%
Just for once show some humility and accept that your cherry picking of polls was flawed. You’ve been saying for weeks that the Brexit Party was going to walk Peterborough.
No I did not say the Brexit Party were going to walk it although I said it was likely to win it but Labour could hold on with GOTV.
The main reason the Labour Party held the seat was the Tory vote held up much better than expected
HYUFD, two points: the polls you so meticulously slave over are wrong and your interpretation of those polls are also wrong.
Labour and Tory votes are hardier than expected, but Labour have the edge and because of unbudgeable support in BAME-heavy areas.
Brexit doesn’t have the ground war ability to fight a GE.
A heavy leave seat (60%+) has defeated the forces of No Deal.
The next election is still looking like a Labour minority government.
A heavy leave seat (60%) voted for Leave parties (52%). The vote share for Remain parties (if you count Labour as that) was 46%. Leave won. But lost because of tactical voting.
Take UNS models and bin them. This kind of the vote was for x so y won instead result is going to happen a lot...!
Labour isn't a Remain Party though. But it didn't matter, the BXP made it about them so Labour appear Remainery in comparison.
Labour and Tory votes are hardier than expected, but Labour have the edge and because of unbudgeable support in BAME-heavy areas.
Brexit doesn’t have the ground war ability to fight a GE.
A heavy leave seat (60%+) has defeated the forces of No Deal.
The next election is still looking like a Labour minority government.
A heavy leave seat (60%) voted for Leave parties (52%). The vote share for Remain parties (if you count Labour as that) was 46%. Leave won. But lost because of tactical voting.
Take UNS models and bin them. This kind of the vote was for x so y won instead result is going to happen a lot...!
Binning UNS models should reduce some here to 1 post a day.
Never has an opposition hold in a by-election been such a surprise.
Labour won thanks to enough Tory voters sticking with the Conservatives.
A disappointing night for the LibDems - some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was actually a rejection of the Brexit party. Those left wing Remainers who might have voted for the LibDems but instead voted tactically for Labour to stop the Brexit party wouldn't have been thinking "Do I approve of the Labour policy on 2nd Ref." They'd be thinking "I must help stop the Brexit Party winning."
The result has no relevance to Labour's convoluted policy on 2nd Ref,
EDIT: Nevertheless, you're probably right. Some will paint it as a rejection of a second referendum!
It was a rejection of the two extreme positions of No Deal and second referendum.
There you go! We were right.
And so am I.
In a constituency which was 39% Remain the LibDems got 12%.
The voters of Peterborough have just said 'Bollocks to the LibDems'.
The Remainers said "Bollocks to Brexit" and voted tactically for the Labour party.
I think there will be a lot more tactical voting by Remainers at the next GE. As we all know, and not to make an issue of it, Remainers, in general - not all, are more intelligent than Leavers. I think that is indisputable.
Is there an offence of leaverophobia or anti-leaverism? I can't keep up with what is not PC these days.
Its not the story you were expecting is it.
The LibDems had the big momentum and a real opportunity and you didn't achieve.
3% to 12% is in line with the national polls, and not a bad result.
It's actually better for anti-Brexiters that voters use their intelligence to identify the party best placed locally to beat the right, than it is for remainers to switch to the LibDems in every seat.
I'm sure @isam will be on here shortly to say that because TBP only won by 10,000 votes instead of the hyped up 33,920 then, er, it means they, er, force to be reckoned with, er, remainers, er, will of the people, er...
Labour and Tory votes are hardier than expected, but Labour have the edge and because of unbudgeable support in BAME-heavy areas.
Brexit doesn’t have the ground war ability to fight a GE.
A heavy leave seat (60%+) has defeated the forces of No Deal.
The next election is still looking like a Labour minority government.
A heavy leave seat (60%) voted for Leave parties (52%). The vote share for Remain parties (if you count Labour as that) was 46%. Leave won. But lost because of tactical voting.
Take UNS models and bin them. This kind of the vote was for x so y won instead result is going to happen a lot...!
Binning UNS models should reduce some here to 1 post a day.
+1. UNS is bust, but just too easy and lazy to abandon in the absence of anything better.
This plus the fact that Tories don't know how to do this is also a factor.
Yup, it took years of getting slapped around by Thatcher for the centre-left to learn to do tactical voting. Tories and BXP-people have never really had to do it, and it's not clear that they'll be able to figure it out the first time around.
The parties could of course avoid the need for that with an explicit electoral pact, but that has all kinds of problems of its own.
56,010 /114325 = 0.49 + a bit of UKIP collapse = 7100 votes or so.
Lib Dems likely over 10,000 I think.
If there is a Brecon by election depends whether it is before or after the Tory leadership result.
If before then the Eurosceptic vote will be split between the Brexit Party and Tories again as last night and the LDs will likely win it, if after and Boris wins for instance then he will win back Brexit Party voters and with Eurosceptic voters largely united behind the Tories that could enable a Tory hold.
Do not forget last night that while Labour did hold on the Brexit Party plus Tory plus UKIP vote combined was over 50%
Just for once show some humility and accept that your cherry picking of polls was flawed. You’ve been saying for weeks that the Brexit Party was going to walk Peterborough.
No I did not say the Brexit Party were going to walk it although I said it was likely to win it but Labour could hold on with GOTV.
The main reason the Labour Party held the seat was the Tory vote held up much better than expected
HYUFD, two points: the polls you so meticulously slave over are wrong and your interpretation of those polls are also wrong.
The great thing though is that if you don’t like HYUFD’s current interpretation, there’ll be another one along in a moment.
My modest winnings will just about cover a Danish pastry, but this is a good example of how your head is a better guide to betting than your heart. There were quite a few people on here who like me thought the BP would win, but that the odds on Labour were very generous. But in fact the reason I thought the BP would win was simply that everyone in the mainstream media and on social media were saying they were. The reality was that this by election was unprecedented in terms of what would influence the voters and none of us knew what the outcome would be. So backing a plausible winner with a good price was logical.
The big difference between a by-election and the Euro elections is that the former is under first past the post and the latter by a form of proportional representation. In the former people vote tactically to stop parties they do not wish to progress while in the latter they do not have to do that to the same extent
The other difference is turnout.
Pretty much all the voters who were going to vote Brexit did so in the European elections. If the turnout had been at that level they probably would have won. On a higher turnout they lost.
Of course, if there are further Brexit developments, such as a second referendum or revoke, then the absolute number of people willing to vote for Farage may increase again, but for now I'd suggest it's more useful to look at their European election vote numbers, rather than vote share.
Where the Brexit Party failed was expectation management. Nige has a track record of getting a bit carried away, talking up a 'surge' etc when he should have learnt by now that when you campaign you can end up being in a bubble. Lots of helpers and a positive reception in the high street does not a victory make. Caution, caution, caution.
Is his new MP going to demand being in the Brexit talk with Brussels?
I wonder how many potential BXP voters were put off by being reminded in the last few days how far up Trump's backside their leader has his head?
Doing the same to Bush did Blair huge damage and Bush for all his unpopularity was not Trump. There is a sense that Leavers are just thicko voting fodder. A lesson for Boris perhaps
The Brexit Party and Tories combined got 50% of the vote last night in Peterborough.
At the European Parliament elections the Brexit Party and Tories combined got 49% in the Peterborough local authority area so there was no movement from Brexit Party to Labour since the European elections but there was movement from Brexit Party to Tory and that enabled Labour to win (helped also by squeezing the LDs)
I think many Labour voters voted LD tactically in the Euros [ certainly members did ! ]. In a Westminster election they came home and many knowledgeable LD and Green supporters also voted Labour yesterday.
By the way, I see Hunt has overnight caught up with Gove (and, uh, Leadsom) in the Betfair stakes.
There is something fishy about this horse called Leadsom....
Don't knock it. Having been dangerously red on Boris, laying Leadsom has allowed me to build on being nicely green on everyone else, with Boris and Andrea (and Rory) being pale red.
Where the Brexit Party failed was expectation management. Nige has a track record of getting a bit carried away, talking up a 'surge' etc when he should have learnt by now that when you campaign you can end up being in a bubble. Lots of helpers and a positive reception in the high street does not a victory make. Caution, caution, caution.
The big difference between a by-election and the Euro elections is that the former is under first past the post and the latter by a form of proportional representation. In the former people vote tactically to stop parties they do not wish to progress while in the latter they do not have to do that to the same extent
The other difference is turnout.
Pretty much all the voters who were going to vote Brexit did so in the European elections. If the turnout had been at that level they probably would have won. On a higher turnout they lost.
Of course, if there are further Brexit developments, such as a second referendum or revoke, then the absolute number of people willing to vote for Farage may increase again, but for now I'd suggest it's more useful to look at their European election vote numbers, rather than vote share.
Always instructive to look at the UKIP absolute numbers in 2014 and 2015.
I'm sure @isam will be on here shortly to say that because TBP only won by 10,000 votes instead of the hyped up 33,920 then, er, it means they, er, force to be reckoned with, er, remainers, er, will of the people, er...
If the tories do as he wants out of fear he will cost them seats then he doesnt have to win seats, though clearly hed prefer to. As the Tories back no deal openly or through pretending renegotiation and then no deal, Farage might as well be the tory leader.
The big difference between a by-election and the Euro elections is that the former is under first past the post and the latter by a form of proportional representation. In the former people vote tactically to stop parties they do not wish to progress while in the latter they do not have to do that to the same extent
The other difference is turnout.
Pretty much all the voters who were going to vote Brexit did so in the European elections. If the turnout had been at that level they probably would have won. On a higher turnout they lost.
Of course, if there are further Brexit developments, such as a second referendum or revoke, then the absolute number of people willing to vote for Farage may increase again, but for now I'd suggest it's more useful to look at their European election vote numbers, rather than vote share.
This is a key point (and also for the LibDems). What we saw in the Euros was the fanatics on both sides. It is a mistake to project these percentages onto the whole population. Which is actually most serious news for the hard leavers, since there is greater risk of no deal being thrust upon the country without its consent.
On both sides of the referendum result there are probably only a third who are dedicated supporters of No Deal or Revoke. Of the leave voters another third would probably settle for May's deal and the remaining third don't care that much and some have changed their mind.
Rochdale P - mmm, it's clearly patchy in your area, but you're a bit torn yourself, aren't you? Weren't you saying a couple of weeks ago that voting Labour in Peterborough was a mark of shame, but you're cheering (sort of) this morning? I agree there are plenty of inactive members, as always, but I don't think you can disagree that this by-election showed an awful lot of active ones. When push comes to shove, most of us pitch in, and I hope you will too, rather than facilitate government by some Tory ultra or Farage.
No, I said that its a vote of shame voting Labour anywhere. When Labour MPs across the country are openly begging Labour members to vote Labour, we know that its bad.
What this election showed is that the party is capable of bussing in the committed Momentum people. Which like with similar efforts by other parties and ourselves can't be replicated nationally when every seat is up for election.
As for pitching in, I carried the majority of the council campaign in my ward, delivered almost all of the leaflets, posted most of the social media. I have been in the party for 25 years and want what we need - a Labour government. My frustration that the Corbynism cancer continues to remove our chances of having that.
We held the seat - a fantastic result thanks to a one-off army of activists winning the ground war. Yet we collapsed by 17% to just a 31% share, the second worst in history. We can win the odd one-off like this where however badly we collapse the other side collapse worse. But we continue to bleed out our vote and our support and that isn't going to get any better when we keep selecting dubious candidates and keep pushing our non-position on Brexit.
Great result for all those who loathe Farage and all he stands for. Difficult to talk about racists and anti-semites if his mob had won a seat.
And another victory for Remain.....just!
The new Peterborough MP apparently found it very easy to talk with racists and anti-Semites. She even commented that she enjoys reading such guff!
Corbyn's Labour should be proud to have such a woman in their party.
Very difficult to identify a racist without knowing the person.. Textual analysis is extremely unreliable and certain types of racism such as anti semitism is particularly difficult. Is it anti semitic to say 'Jews are good businessmen' or 'all my Jewish friends are really funny'? Do you think all stereotypes are racist when applied to Jews?
I suspect you know very few Jews which is why you often sound so hysterical when you believe you have found one being insulted
It has evidently escaped your attention, but I said she wasn't an anti-Semite - but that she did, however, fall all too easily for tropes and lines that are anti-Semitic.
"Very difficult to identify a racist without knowing the person."
Actually, it can be very easy. Startlingly easy. I might suggest that someone walking down the High Street wearing jackboots, quoting from Mein Kampf and calling for everyone who is not Aryan to be deported might, in fact, be racist.
"I suspect you know very few Jews which is why you often sound so hysterical when you believe you have found one being insulted"
LOL. 'Hysterical'. No, not really. Would you say the same about those Labourites who criticise Conservatives over Islamaphobia? Would you use the word 'hysterical' then?
Where the Brexit Party failed was expectation management. Nige has a track record of getting a bit carried away, talking up a 'surge' etc when he should have learnt by now that when you campaign you can end up being in a bubble. Lots of helpers and a positive reception in the high street does not a victory make. Caution, caution, caution.
Yes this is true.
If TBP had managed expectations properly people would this morning have been talking about what an incredible achievement it was for a party that is only a few weeks old to come within a few hundred votes of taking a seat from Labour - A party that's been around for 119 years!
I'm sure @isam will be on here shortly to say that because TBP only won by 10,000 votes instead of the hyped up 33,920 then, er, it means they, er, force to be reckoned with, er, remainers, er, will of the people, er...
He was backing Labour in the markets.
He is an astute gambler. He also forever tells us that we ramp up TBP expectations just so we can claim they failed miserably when they don't live up to those expectations.
Labour often has an uncanny ability to dig voters out the ground in by-elections. Noone saw the absolute scale of their win coming in Oldham West & Royton a few years back.
But in Newport West the Labour vote % went down 13 points, and in Lewisham East (2018) it went down by 18 points
True ! Their by-election performances have been a bit shit recently, and that's before the recent Lib Dem and Brexit party surges. Noone notices these things when the by-election is an easy hold though.
Interestingly both these observations were correct - once again the Labour vote dropped, but they also found those crucial 'extra voters' over and above the Euros to win...
Where the Brexit Party failed was expectation management. Nige has a track record of getting a bit carried away, talking up a 'surge' etc when he should have learnt by now that when you campaign you can end up being in a bubble. Lots of helpers and a positive reception in the high street does not a victory make. Caution, caution, caution.
Yes this is true.
If TBP had managed expectations properly people would this morning have been talking about what an incredible achievement it was for a party that is only a few weeks old to come within a few hundred votes of taking a seat from Labour - A party that's been around for 119 years!
To be fair, it was probably quite hard to manage expectations after the Euros.
Do me a favour folks. Stop calling the Brexit Party far right. As a brown Muslim this really scares me.
Because what liberal white people don't realise they are doing is that they are normalising the fat right. When you call everyone you disagree with gat right people think far right isn't such a bad thing, so one day when an actual Nazi comes along (and they will) ready to win people will ignore your cries of them being extreme. They will think you are crying wolf.
So attack Nigel on his policies if you have to bit stop calling his kind far right. Tommy Robinson for example is a different story.
We're in a state of flux where it's difficult to categorise absolutely. There are people (even on here) for example who have applied the same argument to Tommy Robinson, that he's not a racist with fascist tendencies, just a slightly misguided, patriotic lad with 'legitimate' concerns.
(and apart from anything else it would be difficult to attack Nigel on his policies since he's made the genius decision not to have any)
Agree very much that we should stop using 'far right' etc language too much. The Brexit debate is a lively discussion with important consequences between centrists of the centre, centre left and centre right. If Brexiteers turn 16m Remainers into 'extremists' and Remainers turn 17m Brexiteers into 'far right' or some such we are turning the centre into the extreme. Keep the 'far left/right' for the genuine fascists, anti semites, islamophobes, ISIS supporting extremists, revolutionary marxists etc. They have entered our political parties in numbers but need to be distinguished from the rest.
By the way, I see Hunt has overnight caught up with Gove (and, uh, Leadsom) in the Betfair stakes.
There is something fishy about this horse called Leadsom....
The rule change for more sponsors is bad for Andrea Leadsom: with only two public backers, she might not even get to the starting line. The risk for layers is that the party lends her some signatories in order to avoid an all-male line-up so remember to save your bus fare home.
Rochdale P - mmm, it's clearly patchy in your area, but you're a bit torn yourself, aren't you? Weren't you saying a couple of weeks ago that voting Labour in Peterborough was a mark of shame, but you're cheering (sort of) this morning? I agree there are plenty of inactive members, as always, but I don't think you can disagree that this by-election showed an awful lot of active ones. When push comes to shove, most of us pitch in, and I hope you will too, rather than facilitate government by some Tory ultra or Farage.
No, I said that its a vote of shame voting Labour anywhere. When Labour MPs across the country are openly begging Labour members to vote Labour, we know that its bad.
What this election showed is that the party is capable of bussing in the committed Momentum people. Which like with similar efforts by other parties and ourselves can't be replicated nationally when every seat is up for election.
As for pitching in, I carried the majority of the council campaign in my ward, delivered almost all of the leaflets, posted most of the social media. I have been in the party for 25 years and want what we need - a Labour government. My frustration that the Corbynism cancer continues to remove our chances of having that.
We held the seat - a fantastic result thanks to a one-off army of activists winning the ground war. Yet we collapsed by 17% to just a 31% share, the second worst in history. We can win the odd one-off like this where however badly we collapse the other side collapse worse. But we continue to bleed out our vote and our support and that isn't going to get any better when we keep selecting dubious candidates and keep pushing our non-position on Brexit.
SENSIBLE LABOUR SUPPORTER POST ALERT
Don't worry the loons (on both sides I'm sure) will ignore this post and/or tell you why you have been labouring under a massive misapprehension for the past 25 years.
I wonder how many potential BXP voters were put off by being reminded in the last few days how far up Trump's backside their leader has his head?
Doing the same to Bush did Blair huge damage and Bush for all his unpopularity was not Trump. There is a sense that Leavers are just thicko voting fodder. A lesson for Boris perhaps
The Brexit Party and Tories combined got 50% of the vote last night in Peterborough.
At the European Parliament elections the Brexit Party and Tories combined got 49% in the Peterborough local authority area so there was no movement from Brexit Party to Labour since the European elections but there was movement from Brexit Party to Tory and that enabled Labour to win (helped also by squeezing the LDs)
I think many Labour voters voted LD tactically in the Euros [ certainly members did ! ]. In a Westminster election they came home and many knowledgeable LD and Green supporters also voted Labour yesterday.
Agreed. Looking at the Lib Dem win in the local by election last night, it looks like there is a big constituency for voting for the best combination of being least leavy and most likely to win. If so, good news for the Lib Dems. Bad news for Labour who will be denied a majority. Terrible news for the Tories who will lose lots of seats.
Where the Brexit Party failed was expectation management. Nige has a track record of getting a bit carried away, talking up a 'surge' etc when he should have learnt by now that when you campaign you can end up being in a bubble. Lots of helpers and a positive reception in the high street does not a victory make. Caution, caution, caution.
Yes this is true.
If TBP had managed expectations properly people would this morning have been talking about what an incredible achievement it was for a party that is only a few weeks old to come within a few hundred votes of taking a seat from Labour - A party that's been around for 119 years!
To be fair, it was probably quite hard to manage expectations after the Euros.
True but as always PR elections are very different to FPTP elections.
Rochdale P - mmm, it's clearly patchy in your area, but you're a bit torn yourself, aren't you? Weren't you saying a couple of weeks ago that voting Labour in Peterborough was a mark of shame, but you're cheering (sort of) this morning? I agree there are plenty of inactive members, as always, but I don't think you can disagree that this by-election showed an awful lot of active ones. When push comes to shove, most of us pitch in, and I hope you will too, rather than facilitate government by some Tory ultra or Farage.
No, I said that its a vote of shame voting Labour anywhere. When Labour MPs across the country are openly begging Labour members to vote Labour, we know that its bad.
What this election showed is that the party is capable of bussing in the committed Momentum people. Which like with similar efforts by other parties and ourselves can't be replicated nationally when every seat is up for election.
As for pitching in, I carried the majority of the council campaign in my ward, delivered almost all of the leaflets, posted most of the social media. I have been in the party for 25 years and want what we need - a Labour government. My frustration that the Corbynism cancer continues to remove our chances of having that.
We held the seat - a fantastic result thanks to a one-off army of activists winning the ground war. Yet we collapsed by 17% to just a 31% share, the second worst in history. We can win the odd one-off like this where however badly we collapse the other side collapse worse. But we continue to bleed out our vote and our support and that isn't going to get any better when we keep selecting dubious candidates and keep pushing our non-position on Brexit.
Eastleigh probably is a good comparison. The LibDems were reassured after holding that seat, thinking that they could throw everything at their held seats and hang on after the coalition. Yet they got in on the back of a significantly reduced vote and a perfectly split opposition. The real story was the drop in their vote from 46% to 32% - the lowest share of the vote for a by-election victor, until last night.
Comments
You are going to find that hard Brexit is a lot less popular than you so glibly assume.
I think there are several strategic issues to consider: one has been the association of TBP Ltd. with Trump and also the far-Right over the past couple of weeks. The visit of Trump, who is genuinely loathed by an extraordinary number of Brits, underlined that the US will take a "robust" attitude to any trade deal, including putting the NHS on the table, and that Farage and Johnson are Trump's analogues in the UK. It was, I think enough to make defecting Labour voters think twice, I also think the Anti "neo-Fascist" Milkshake meme has had some impact by crystallizing how polarizing Farage is. Also in "on the ground" campaigning TBP Ltd. has inherited the weakness of UKIP- all air and no ground- and Labour pulled out all the stops in a ruthless, well-targeted GOTV.
For the Tories, unalloyed woe. TBP Ltd. is eating their lunch and yet if they go for No Deal, then they probably split and are most likely finished as a government force for a long time. Their voters are less no deal or right wing than their members. If they give in to the No Dealers they will lose the moderates as well as the Heid-bangers. If the Party holds the line on some kind of deal, they might survive, but the candidates seem more determined to play games than to set out a course to safety. The Tories are getting the blame for the Brexit balls-up.
There was no chance at all of the Lib Dems winning Peterborough, and yet they increased their vote substantially against a very effective Labour squeeze. On the same night, a massive by-election win in Ross on Wye. So in areas of former strength they are now ahead of their pre-2010 numbers. Under FPTP they have to concentrate their vote in areas of strength. So, if they are polling nationally in the high teens but in Peterborough 12%, and Ross 75%. then this suggests that they can get back into the 50-100 seat range where they can be effective in the House of Commons.
Meanwhile Farage will face a lot of head wind over his finances and allegations of serious malfeasance from the EP- and they will prosecute. That, the Johnson case, and a general lack of transparency about links to Bannon and the Russian rumours is creating an aroma of sleaze. After Bridgend, the mood music has changed to the point where it will be incredibly difficult to finally go.
A Tory new leader will still try to get the UK out, the relentless problems of a deeply divided party will continue, So I guess, despite the bravado, we will see a further extension and continuing limbo, and the decline of the Tories, even beyond current critical levels..
So I think we can see the path back to Remain is still there, whereas the paths to Leave are getting more difficult.
No wonder Farage left early to consider his position.
Face it, 'Bollocks to Brexit' goes down well in nice upper-middle class areas.
But it doesn't in the likes of Peterborough - nor do the LibDems have other policies which are relevant in such places.
Go to bed with Theresa wake up with with Jezza is the message from this by.
1. BXP had a nobody candidate. "I'm voting for Farage" is an easier pitch if you'd be voting actually for Farage and not a nobody proxy
2. BXP+Con won 50.3% of the vote. 51.5% if you add in UKIP. A clear majority for clear leave parties with the split vote letting in the other camp. A clear leader and they would have won
3. Brexit is THE issue. But its far from the only issue, and refusing to speak about any other policy area restricts your ability to reach voters. A
4. The new political paradigm is alliances. Con / Brexit / UKIP contesting each other and they lose. Lab / LD / Green / Nats all contesting each other and they lose. Labour win despite crashing 17% of share away because Leave split their vote. Had Remain voters been less tactical and given the LibDems even a few hundred more votes Labour would have lost.
So - who will be best at forging cross party alliances? Boris Johnson and Nige Farage? Or Jeremy Corbyn and Jo Swinson(?)
Voted for them in the 2017 GE and of course in the Euros.
I don’t live in Peterborough but if I had I would have voted tactically for Labour to prevent a No Deal extremist entering parliament - especially with numbers on a knife edge.
Even with the Lib Dem surge, they never stood a chance.
I am quite happy this morning.
At the European Parliament elections the Brexit Party and Tories combined got 49% in the Peterborough local authority area so there was no movement from Brexit Party to Labour since the European elections but there was movement from Brexit Party to Tory and that enabled Labour to win (helped also by squeezing the LDs)
Its better for those with extreme positions to crush the moderate centre.
Having been in the moderate centre many times the LibDems know that very well.
Rochdale P - mmm, it's clearly patchy in your area, but you're a bit torn yourself, aren't you? Weren't you saying a couple of weeks ago that voting Labour in Peterborough was a mark of shame, but you're cheering (sort of) this morning? I agree there are plenty of inactive members, as always, but I don't think you can disagree that this by-election showed an awful lot of active ones. When push comes to shove, most of us pitch in, and I hope you will too, rather than facilitate government by some Tory ultra or Farage.
Lib Dem 75.1% (+28)
Con 18.7% (-34)
Lab 6.2% (didn't stand last time)
LDs certainly do well in nice middle class areas. There was a time when the Tories used to, but they seem rather toxic now.
The Peterborough constituency is smaller and better for Labour.
The main reason the Labour Party held the seat was the Tory vote held up much better than expected
(and apart from anything else it would be difficult to attack Nigel on his policies since he's made the genius decision not to have any)
We lost 17% of our vote, holding a seat with a 31% vote share. We've seen that high teens % share collapse in election after election since 2015 - what do you think that does to us replicated elsewhere?
If I was in Peterborough I would have after lots of thought come down on voting Labour, I hate Brexit but utterly detest Farage .
Not sure what went wrong for the BP . All the stars aligned favourably , 61% Leave area and coming off the Euro elections win . Even though it was close , they lost . The narrative of all conquering BP, people want no deal has hit the buffers no matter how much spin Farage and co do.
Remainers vote tactically.
Labour and Tory votes are hardier than expected, but Labour have the edge and because of unbudgeable support in BAME-heavy areas.
Brexit doesn’t have the ground war ability to fight a GE.
A heavy leave seat (60%+) has defeated the forces of No Deal.
The next election is still looking like a Labour minority government.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/02/jewish-groups-labour-peterborough-byelection-lisa-forbes-antisemitism
Where I went wrong was the LDs did much worse than I expected and the Tories did far better than I expected and I am happy to concede that
That said, from standstill to within a few hundred votes of an MP is pretty good going.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leader_of_the_Conservative_Party_(UK)
I suspect you know very few Jews which is why you often sound so hysterical when you believe you have found one being insulted
Labour and LibDem combined were 51% in 2017 and 43% in 2019.
There really isn't this army of tactical voters who PBers are moving around.
"all my Jewish friends are really funny" - tail event selection of friends but no.
Take UNS models and bin them. This kind of the vote was for x so y won instead result is going to happen a lot...!
I would think it will be damaging for Raab and any other No Deal supporter.
There is something fishy about this horse called Leadsom....
I can only judge by the number of emails I get urging members to go and help. At peak by-election frenzy typically the run rate rises to two or three a day in the final week. For Peterborough, nothing, zero.
I think the party had written off its chances, until the Euros. I believe calls for help went out within Eastern Region after the Euro results, doubtless hoping for better than fourth. But without solid canvassing data this was always unlikely to make much difference, outside the two LibDem held wards.
What this result boosts IMO are the supporters of some compromise position and those who want to return to non Brexit issues.
You're doomed Boris .... doomed, de yer hear what I say Boris DOOMED !!!!!!
The parties could of course avoid the need for that with an explicit electoral pact, but that has all kinds of problems of its own.
Pretty much all the voters who were going to vote Brexit did so in the European elections. If the turnout had been at that level they probably would have won. On a higher turnout they lost.
Of course, if there are further Brexit developments, such as a second referendum or revoke, then the absolute number of people willing to vote for Farage may increase again, but for now I'd suggest it's more useful to look at their European election vote numbers, rather than vote share.
*titter*
deal being thrust upon the country without its consent.
On both sides of the referendum result there are probably only a third who are dedicated supporters of No Deal or Revoke. Of the leave voters another third would probably settle for May's deal and the remaining third don't care that much and some have changed their mind.
What this election showed is that the party is capable of bussing in the committed Momentum people. Which like with similar efforts by other parties and ourselves can't be replicated nationally when every seat is up for election.
As for pitching in, I carried the majority of the council campaign in my ward, delivered almost all of the leaflets, posted most of the social media. I have been in the party for 25 years and want what we need - a Labour government. My frustration that the Corbynism cancer continues to remove our chances of having that.
We held the seat - a fantastic result thanks to a one-off army of activists winning the ground war. Yet we collapsed by 17% to just a 31% share, the second worst in history. We can win the odd one-off like this where however badly we collapse the other side collapse worse. But we continue to bleed out our vote and our support and that isn't going to get any better when we keep selecting dubious candidates and keep pushing our non-position on Brexit.
"Very difficult to identify a racist without knowing the person."
Actually, it can be very easy. Startlingly easy. I might suggest that someone walking down the High Street wearing jackboots, quoting from Mein Kampf and calling for everyone who is not Aryan to be deported might, in fact, be racist.
"I suspect you know very few Jews which is why you often sound so hysterical when you believe you have found one being insulted"
LOL. 'Hysterical'. No, not really. Would you say the same about those Labourites who criticise Conservatives over Islamaphobia? Would you use the word 'hysterical' then?
If TBP had managed expectations properly people would this morning have been talking about what an incredible achievement it was for a party that is only a few weeks old to come within a few hundred votes of taking a seat from Labour - A party that's been around for 119 years!
Don't worry the loons (on both sides I'm sure) will ignore this post and/or tell you why you have been labouring under a massive misapprehension for the past 25 years.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1136893315868221440
Last throw of the dice..