Given how close it was one must think that if Nigel Farage himself had stood for the BP he would probably have won the seat.
I wonder if he regrets not doing so?
As it is, precious momentum has been lost.
I wonder whether private polling was suggesting that this would be difficult which is why Farage gave it a miss. The 2014 defectors both had private polling done before their decisiond.
tbf for all the bluster, there is still only one deal on the table and a leader who has said they will trash it has not yet been elected. In fact I have only heard candidates talking about renegotiation but not that the deal will be thrown out. Although I suppose that might be implied.
I am coming back in the tent. I know I've been going on about the 'Remain/Socialism' double (which I would still love to see) but as regards what I think WILL happen? - the Withdrawal Treaty will be ratified and we will be leaving the EU on that basis. This will take place under PM Boris Johnson. It is the only practical way forward and therefore he will do it.
If the WA is ratified it will kill the Tories off. But, then, it's hard to see any scenario under which they stay alive.
Depends if there is someone with the charisma, charm, yes precociousness, nerve, verve, and sheer gritty determination to volte face on WA opposition and bring the party with him to ensure its passing.
And I'm not talking about Matt Hancock.
I think it's quite sweet that so many people are putting so much faith in Boris Johnson. It's almost as if they have not noticed the last three or four years.
Be clear about this - I think he is an utter, utter tool. But as @Richard_Nabavi and I were discussing the other day, he is also one of the few people with the ability to perform such a u-turn.
And think about it - he doesn't give a toss about Brexit one way or another and might come to the realisation that in order not to destroy the party (ie no deal or no Brexit) he will bring people along with his compromise.
If you take no deal-no Brexit off the table then the WA remains the only possible option. As it has done for the past two years. As a Remoaner May was given no slack and her many failings have been often rehearsed on here. But Boris? Brexiter Boris? He could be the man for the job.
I accept that to rely on a duplicitous liar to lie duplicitously is not a long term sustainable strategy but if his strategy is to lead the Tory Party as PM then his tactics can only be to get the WA through and present it as a crushing victory for Leave.
Fair enough. But I don't see how even Johnson can pull it off given what he has said about No Deal and given the sheer bloody-minded lunacy of the ERG. It would be a gift to Farage at a time when the LibDems have repeatedly shown they are winning over a lot of Tory Remainers. This is not 2015 when the Tories were able to squeeze the LD vote dry to counter UKIP.
Terrible case but why the lack of detail e.g. this incident happened on the No xx bus at 11.30pm please contact the police on tel xxx if you saw anything. I am sure the passengers on the lower deck and driver must have seen and heard something. Most London buses have cameras - why no picture of the perpertrators so they can be identified.
Surely the priority is to catch them so they don't do it again?
Given how close it was one must think that if Nigel Farage himself had stood for the BP he would probably have won the seat.
I wonder if he regrets not doing so?
As it is, precious momentum has been lost.
I wonder whether private polling was suggesting that this would be difficult which is why Farage gave it a miss. The 2014 defectors both had private polling done before their decisiond.
Apparently Peterborough is two hundred and something on TBP "target" list?
Terrible case but why the lack of detail e.g. this incident happened on the No xx bus at 11.30pm please contact the police on tel xxx if you saw anything. I am sure the passengers on the lower deck and driver must have seen and heard something. Most London buses have cameras - why no picture of the perpertrators so they can be identified.
Surely the priority is to catch them so they don't do it again?
They probably do have the CCTV and are following up. Whether they can ever be identified, I don't know.
Lol at all the squealing about anti-semitism now. Tories and LDs had the option to vote for someone who is not an anti-Semite and had a chance of beating Lisa Forbes and they didn’t take it.
Morning all. I'd backed Labour for a small sum, so well done to them!
TBH I don't really think this by-election tells us much we didn't know. Both main parties are in dire straits in many ways, but the big difference is that Labour's position looks recoverable, but the Conservatives' Brexit split doesn't. There is no way, starting from here, for the government to come up with and actually implement a Brexit outcome which won't be something between bad and disastrous, and which won't attract vehement blame from at least one side of the now polarised divide, and probably both. The Brexit Party surge can't be bought off by imitating them, Farage and the other extremists will always find some rocks they can throw at any attempt to act as a vaguely sane government. The potential Tory vote will simply be split, probably for a long time, as the inevitable result of the ERG trashing the possibility of an orderly Brexit.
On the Labour side, as Peterborough shows, the brand remains strong. Even with a God-awful candidate, totally unfit to be an MP (albeit perhaps not as bad as the last one), and with the hit of sitting on the Brexit fence, and with the most extreme, unworthy and incompetent leader it has had for generations, the party still has a bedrock of support. More importantly still, those supporters (well represented here) who are totally fed up with it still retain a fundamental loyalty to the party, and can be won back. Given his age, it's likely that Corbyn will step down in the not-too-distant future; Labour only has to select as his replacement someone a bit more competent, who doesn't support terrorists and give comfort to anti-Semites, and they will clean up. Yes, their Brexit position is laughable, but they will be able to shrug off most of the blame for the fiasco.
More like the strength to use their antisemitism as a positive attribute to a number of voters.
Polling shows the most prejudiced groups (older and male) are the ones Labour does worse in. It is more likely that the Brexit party attracted prejudiced voters, not enough to beat the younger more outward looking Labour voters though.
The Labour vote share went down 17%. In a by-election when it was the main opposition to a government that has ceased to exist. The truth is that the people of Peterborough had to choose between racist parties. The anti-Semites just held off the white supremacists.
I do think that's an over-generalisation. I saw a group of Brexit Party supporters in Peterborough a couple of weeks ago, and I certainly wouldn't have classed them as white supremicists. They seemed more evangelical than anything else.
A hard brexit appeals to a wide selection of people - and whilst some of these are undoubtedly racists, many are not.
The new look UKIP is another matter ...
I think you could say the same about the Labour party. But the fact is that those Brexit party evangelicals signed up to a party that is owned and led by a man who has consistently campaigned and endorsed white supremacist and neo-fascist parties; just as Labour is led by someone who has consistently done the same with anti-Semites. And coming soon will be a Tory party led by someone who has routinely reached out to white supremacists and racists too. It really is utterly appalling.
Fair enough. But I don't see how even Johnson can pull it off given what he has said about No Deal and given the sheer bloody-minded lunacy of the ERG. It would be a gift to Farage at a time when the LibDems have repeatedly shown they are winning over a lot of Tory Remainers. This is not 2015 when the Tories were able to squeeze the LD vote dry to counter UKIP.
I have no idea and they are all bad options with bad consequences but, just as TMay at times told the House that Option X would simply not get through and hence would not be put forward, likewise Boris could make it be known that no deal would simply not get through and hence to embark on that course would be suicidal (which it would be).
From that point he could pivot to a "perfect vs good" position and say it was a starting point (which of course it is) and that he would commit to *bullshit, bullshit, technology, alternative arrangements, bullshit, bullshit* but it might get the WA over the line.
Terrible case but why the lack of detail e.g. this incident happened on the No xx bus at 11.30pm please contact the police on tel xxx if you saw anything. I am sure the passengers on the lower deck and driver must have seen and heard something. Most London buses have cameras - why no picture of the perpertrators so they can be identified.
Surely the priority is to catch them so they don't do it again?
They probably do have the CCTV and are following up. Whether they can ever be identified, I don't know.
Can you trace an Oyster card?
If it is registered yes assuming you supply correct details and an address - every trip is tracked. Same with contactless potentially.
tbf for all the bluster, there is still only one deal on the table and a leader who has said they will trash it has not yet been elected. In fact I have only heard candidates talking about renegotiation but not that the deal will be thrown out. Although I suppose that might be implied.
I am coming back in the tent. I know I've been going on about the 'Remain/Socialism' double (which I would still love to see) but as regards what I think WILL happen? - the Withdrawal Treaty will be ratified and we will be leaving the EU on that basis. This will take place under PM Boris Johnson. It is the only practical way forward and therefore he will do it.
I think the EU will allow window dressing on the Backstop if Johnson is really looking for an out. But he will need to be committed. The EU won't want a repeat of May undermining hey own agreement with the EU.
Along the lines of a ten year backstop time limit in the Withdrawal Agreement settled now, but the EU will make sure the permanent backstop goes back into any future state agreements made later.
Morning all. I'd backed Labour for a small sum, so well done to them!
TBH I don't really think this by-election tells us much we didn't know. Both main parties are in dire straits in many ways, but the big difference is that Labour's position looks recoverable, but the Conservatives' Brexit split doesn't. There is no way, starting from here, for the government to come up with and actually implement a Brexit outcome which won't be something between bad and disastrous, and which won't attract vehement blame from at least one side of the now polarised divide, and probably both. The Brexit Party surge can't be bought off by imitating them, Farage and the other extremists will always find some rocks they can throw at any attempt to act as a vaguely sane government. The potential Tory vote will simply be split, probably for a long time, as the inevitable result of the ERG trashing the possibility of an orderly Brexit.
On the Labour side, as Peterborough shows, the brand remains strong. Even with a God-awful candidate, totally unfit to be an MP (albeit perhaps not as bad as the last one), and with the hit of sitting on the Brexit fence, and with the most extreme, unworthy and incompetent leader it has had for generations, the party still has a bedrock of support. More importantly still, those supporters (well represented here) who are totally fed up with it still retain a fundamental loyalty to the party, and can be won back. Given his age, it's likely that Corbyn will step down in the not-too-distant future; Labour only has to select as his replacement someone a bit more competent, who doesn't support terrorists and give comfort to anti-Semites, and they will clean up. Yes, their Brexit position is laughable, but they will be able to shrug off most of the blame for the fiasco.
Very fair comment. And Labour will have to try very hard to choose a leader who is as repellent as Corbyn - and as useless. It's doable, but I think overall the odds are against.
Terrible case but why the lack of detail e.g. this incident happened on the No xx bus at 11.30pm please contact the police on tel xxx if you saw anything. I am sure the passengers on the lower deck and driver must have seen and heard something. Most London buses have cameras - why no picture of the perpertrators so they can be identified.
Surely the priority is to catch them so they don't do it again?
huh? It's all in there N1 bus and:
"The Met Police have confirmed they are investigating the attack and have appealed for witnesses to contact police on 101 or tweet @MetCC and quote CAD737/30May. Alternatively, call Crimestoppers anonymously on 0800 555 111."
Have to say I thought the whole thing with Farage last night was pretty shambolic.
All the "is he there/isn't he there" stuff. Seemingly hiding in the loo. Possibly being pissed after spending the evening in the pub - For the first time since TBP was launched it all looked rather amateurish.
Farage needs to be careful. There's a LOT of very smart people involved in TBP outfit. Much more so than the knuckle dragging weirdos involved in UKIP.
If Nige starts to prove to be a drag on TBP he might find himself being thrown overboard...
tbf for all the bluster, there is still only one deal on the table and a leader who has said they will trash it has not yet been elected. In fact I have only heard candidates talking about renegotiation but not that the deal will be thrown out. Although I suppose that might be implied.
I am coming back in the tent. I know I've been going on about the 'Remain/Socialism' double (which I would still love to see) but as regards what I think WILL happen? - the Withdrawal Treaty will be ratified and we will be leaving the EU on that basis. This will take place under PM Boris Johnson. It is the only practical way forward and therefore he will do it.
If the WA is ratified it will kill the Tories off. But, then, it's hard to see any scenario under which they stay alive.
Depends if there is someone with the charisma, charm, yes precociousness, nerve, verve, and sheer gritty determination to volte face on WA opposition and bring the party with him to ensure its passing.
And I'm not talking about Matt Hancock.
I think it's quite sweet that so many people are putting so much faith in Boris Johnson. It's almost as if they have not noticed the last three or four years.
Be clear about this - I think he is an utter, utter tool. But as @Richard_Nabavi and I were discussing the other day, he is also one of the few people with the ability to perform such a u-turn.
And think about it - he doesn't give a toss about Brexit one way or another and might come to the realisation that in order not to destroy the party (ie no deal or no Brexit) he will bring people along with his compromise.
If you tak not a long term sustainable strategy but if his strategy is to lead the Tory Party as PM then his tactics can only be to get the WA through and present it as a crushing victory for Leave.
Fair enough. But I don't see how even Johnson can pull it off given what he has said about No Deal and given the sheer bloody-minded lunacy of the ERG. It would be a gift to Farage at a time when the LibDems have repeatedly shown they are winning over a lot of Tory Remainers. This is not 2015 when the Tories were able to squeeze the LD vote dry to counter UKIP.
It beats me how anyone can know what Boris would do.
He was strongly pro-Remain when Mayor of London. He switched for the Referendum. He was strongly opposed to May's Deal. Then he voted for it.
Fair enough. But I don't see how even Johnson can pull it off given what he has said about No Deal and given the sheer bloody-minded lunacy of the ERG. It would be a gift to Farage at a time when the LibDems have repeatedly shown they are winning over a lot of Tory Remainers. This is not 2015 when the Tories were able to squeeze the LD vote dry to counter UKIP.
I have no idea and they are all bad options with bad consequences but, just as TMay at times told the House that Option X would simply not get through and hence would not be put forward, likewise Boris could make it be known that no deal would simply not get through and hence to embark on that course would be suicidal (which it would be).
From that point he could pivot to a "perfect vs good" position and say it was a starting point (which of course it is) and that he would commit to *bullshit, bullshit, technology, alternative arrangements, bullshit, bullshit* but it might get the WA over the line.
Yep - it does seem as if most of the Tory leadership candidates are betting on the Commons finding a way to halt a No Deal Brexit on 31st October. The entirely unhinged Dominic Raab seems to be the exception.
Morning all. I'd backed Labour for a small sum, so well done to them!
TBH I don't really think this by-election tells us much we didn't know. Both main parties are in dire straits in many ways, but the big difference is that Labour's position looks recoverable, but the Conservatives' Brexit split doesn't. There is no way, starting from here, for the government to come up with and actually implement a Brexit outcome which won't be something between bad and disastrous, and which won't attract vehement blame from at least one side of the now polarised divide, and probably both. The Brexit Party surge can't be bought off by imitating them, Farage and the other extremists will always find some rocks they can throw at any attempt to act as a vaguely sane government. The potential Tory vote will simply be split, probably for a long time, as the inevitable result of the ERG trashing the possibility of an orderly Brexit.
On the Labour side, as Peterborough shows, the brand remains strong. Even with a God-awful candidate, totally unfit to be an MP (albeit perhaps not as bad as the last one), and with the hit of sitting on the Brexit fence, and with the most extreme, unworthy and incompetent leader it has had for generations, the party still has a bedrock of support. More importantly still, those supporters (well represented here) who are totally fed up with it still retain a fundamental loyalty to the party, and can be won back. Given his age, it's likely that Corbyn will step down in the not-too-distant future; Labour only has to select as his replacement someone a bit more competent, who doesn't support terrorists and give comfort to anti-Semites, and they will clean up. Yes, their Brexit position is laughable, but they will be able to shrug off most of the blame for the fiasco.
Very fair comment. And Labour will have to try very hard to choose a leader who is as repellent as Corbyn - and as useless. It's doable, but I think overall the odds are against.
.. Labour might find it easier than expected in the Midlands where Leave vote is high, but where it won't coalesce around BXP in enough numbers to beat them. I could see a strange situation where all parties hover around the 18-25% range, but Lab comes out on top because of these dynamics.
Stoke-on-Trent South is a good example of that sort of seat, which Labour lost in 2017 even though they gained votes, and might well regain at the next GE even though losing votes.
You could guess BXP at (UKIP @ GE2015)*1.2, Lib Dems at ~GE2010 levels, Labour and Tories losing votes in the same proportion as Peterborough (Labour:Tory 2:3) to make it all add up, to give a result like:
LAB 13,500 CON 11,000 BXP 10,000 LDM 6,500 OTH 1,000
Labour win the seat with 32% of the vote down 15 points. It would be damned close.
Had a bit of a heavy night last night, so just caught up with the Peterborough result. Wow. I thought Nigel would have stormed it. If he can’t win there he can’t win anywhere.I suspect the Brexit Party will prove a five-minute wonder and Nigel and Aaron will soon get bored with it. It might even not fight the next general election.
More like the strength to use their antisemitism as a positive attribute to a number of voters.
Polling shows the most prejudiced groups (older and male) are the ones Labour does worse in. It is more likely that the Brexit party attracted prejudiced voters, not enough to beat the younger more outward looking Labour voters though.
The Labour vote share went down 17%. In a by-election when it was the main opposition to a government that has ceased to exist. The truth is that the people of Peterborough had to choose between racist parties. The anti-Semites just held off the white supremacists.
I do think that's an over-generalisation. I saw a group of Brexit Party supporters in Peterborough a couple of weeks ago, and I certainly wouldn't have classed them as white supremicists. They seemed more evangelical than anything else.
A hard brexit appeals to a wide selection of people - and whilst some of these are undoubtedly racists, many are not.
The new look UKIP is another matter ...
I think you could say the same about the Labour party. But the fact is that those Brexit party evangelicals signed up to a party that is owned and led by a man who has consistently campaigned and endorsed white supremacist and neo-fascist parties; just as Labour is led by someone who has consistently done the same with anti-Semites. And coming soon will be a Tory party led by someone who has routinely reached out to white supremacists and racists too. It really is utterly appalling.
Agree about Labour.
I fear my redpill-ing comment below might be correct: supporting the parties whilst such views are tolerated might act as a gateway drug for worse attitudes. Though to be fair, Labour are much further down that particular slope than the Brexit Party appear to be.
It is not entirely surprising Labour snuck through the middle. May of course hadn't formally confirmed she was stepping down on EU election day and it could be the likelihood of the Tories choosing a Brexiteer like Johnson as leader helped usher enough of their supporters to switch back in Peterborough and deny the Brexit Party. As for the Lib Dems perhaps they slightly disappointed but you can never underestimate the importance of well established local party machines and having commensurate troops on the ground and Labour had those in spades in Peterborough.
Morning all. I'd backed Labour for a small sum, so well done to them!
TBH I don't really think this by-election tells us much we didn't know. Both main parties are in dire straits in many ways, but the big difference is that Labour's position looks recoverable, but the Conservatives' Brexit split doesn't. There is no way, starting from here, for the government to come up with and actually implement a Brexit outcome which won't be something between bad and disastrous, and which won't attract vehement blame from at least one side of the now polarised divide, and probably both. The Brexit Party surge can't be bought off by imitating them, Farage and the other extremists will always find some rocks they can throw at any attempt to act as a vaguely sane government. The potential Tory vote will simply be split, probably for a long time, as the inevitable result of the ERG trashing the possibility of an orderly Brexit.
On the Labour side, as Peterborough shows, the brand remains strong. Even with a God-awful candidate, totally unfit to be an MP (albeit perhaps not as bad as the last one), and with the hit of sitting on the Brexit fence, and with the most extreme, unworthy and incompetent leader it has had for generations, the party still has a bedrock of support. More importantly still, those supporters (well represented here) who are totally fed up with it still retain a fundamental loyalty to the party, and can be won back. Given his age, it's likely that Corbyn will step down in the not-too-distant future; Labour only has to select as his replacement someone a bit more competent, who doesn't support terrorists and give comfort to anti-Semites, and they will clean up. Yes, their Brexit position is laughable, but they will be able to shrug off most of the blame for the fiasco.
The position for the Tories is better than you think, but at some point you are going to have to leave office to decide fundamentally on the direction you want to take. Hacking things together to remain in power is tempting in the short term, but ultimately delays recovery, unless that is you can find yourself another Thatcher. No sign of that yet.
.. Labour might find it easier than expected in the Midlands where Leave vote is high, but where it won't coalesce around BXP in enough numbers to beat them. I could see a strange situation where all parties hover around the 18-25% range, but Lab comes out on top because of these dynamics.
Stoke-on-Trent South is a good example of that sort of seat, which Labour lost in 2017 even though they gained votes, and might well regain at the next GE even though losing votes.
You could guess BXP at (UKIP @ GE2015)*1.2, Lib Dems at ~GE2010 levels, Labour and Tories losing votes in the same proportion as Peterborough (Labour:Tory 2:3) to make it all add up, to give a result like:
LAB 13,500 CON 11,000 BXP 10,000 LDM 6,500 OTH 1,000
Labour win the seat with 32% of the vote down 15 points. It would be damned close.
Wouldn't there be lots and lots of seats like that. It would make the General Election almost impossible to predict even as the results came in. 1964 again.
Be clear about this - I think he is an utter, utter tool. But as @Richard_Nabavi and I were discussing the other day, he is also one of the few people with the ability to perform such a u-turn.
And think about it - he doesn't give a toss about Brexit one way or another and might come to the realisation that in order not to destroy the party (ie no deal or no Brexit) he will bring people along with his compromise.
If you take no deal-no Brexit off the table then the WA remains the only possible option. As it has done for the past two years. As a Remoaner May was given no slack and her many failings have been often rehearsed on here. But Boris? Brexiter Boris? He could be the man for the job.
I accept that to rely on a duplicitous liar to lie duplicitously is not a long term sustainable strategy but if his strategy is to lead the Tory Party as PM then his tactics can only be to get the WA through and present it as a crushing victory for Leave.
Exactamundo. Cometh the hour cometh the charlatan.
Of the many possible futures this is the one that I view as the most likely.
Had a bit of a heavy night last night, so just caught up with the Peterborough result. Wow. I thought Nigel would have stormed it. If he can’t win there he can’t win anywhere.I suspect the Brexit Party will prove a five-minute wonder and Nigel and Aaron will soon get bored with it. It might even not fight the next general election.
They'd win 300 odd seats if this result was replicated nationally.
Terrible case but why the lack of detail e.g. this incident happened on the No xx bus at 11.30pm please contact the police on tel xxx if you saw anything. I am sure the passengers on the lower deck and driver must have seen and heard something. Most London buses have cameras - why no picture of the perpertrators so they can be identified.
Surely the priority is to catch them so they don't do it again?
Journalism puts a priority on publishing a story fast. They can always do a follow-up story with more details.
Peterborough is 203rd on list of Brexit Party target seats according to Matthew Goodwin, potential certainly with 60% leave voters and on the back of the European Elections but not their ideal seat by any means. Especially as Labour and the Tories have known about and campaigned for this by election for a very long time.
Well surely in this seat the voters that stuck with Con rather than going to TBP let Jezza hang on?
A headline of “Vote Farage *in a Lab-Con marginal*, and get Corbyn” isn’t quite so pithy.
The obvious way to resolve this is for TBP to soft-pedal seats like Peterborough* in a GE, providing the Con candidate is pro-Brexit - with Con doing the same in Lab-TBP, much as has been suggested between LD and Green.
*If there hadn’t been the by-election, of course. Now they’ll be back to saying it’s a Lab-TBP marginal.
Morning all. I'd backed Labour for a small sum, so well done to them!
TBH I don't really think this by-election tells us much we didn't know. Both main parties are in dire straits in many ways, but the big difference is that Labour's position looks recoverable, but the Conservatives' Brexit split doesn't. There is no way, starting from here, for the government to come up with and actually implement a Brexit outcome which won't be something between bad and disastrous, and which won't attract vehement blame from at least one side of the now polarised divide, and probably both. The Brexit Party surge can't be bought off by imitating them, Farage and the other extremists will always find some rocks they can throw at any attempt to act as a vaguely sane government. The potential Tory vote will simply be split, probably for a long time, as the inevitable result of the ERG trashing the possibility of an orderly Brexit.
On the Labour side, as Peterborough shows, the brand remains strong. Even with a God-awful candidate, totally unfit to be an MP (albeit perhaps not as bad as the last one), and with the hit of sitting on the Brexit fence, and with the most extreme, unworthy and incompetent leader it has had for generations, the party still has a bedrock of support. More importantly still, those supporters (well represented here) who are totally fed up with it still retain a fundamental loyalty to the party, and can be won back. Given his age, it's likely that Corbyn will step down in the not-too-distant future; Labour only has to select as his replacement someone a bit more competent, who doesn't support terrorists and give comfort to anti-Semites, and they will clean up. Yes, their Brexit position is laughable, but they will be able to shrug off most of the blame for the fiasco.
Agree with all of the above Nabbers except the Jezza standing down part. Events and the Jezzbollah are conspiring to keep him in place and age will not prize him away another opportunity to walk through the door of 10 Downing Street as Prime Minister.
A headline of “Vote Farage *in a Lab-Con marginal*, and get Corbyn” isn’t quite so pithy.
The obvious way to resolve this is for TBP to soft-pedal seats like Peterborough* in a GE, providing the Con candidate is pro-Brexit - with Con doing the same in Lab-TBP, much as has been suggested between LD and Green.
Not sure there's much in that for Con, since the BXP ground game seems to be pretty pants even in the seats they *are* targetting, so their voters must be responding to the national message and will vote BXP even if they don't get a leaflet.
If they were to actually not run a candidate then that would make a difference, but an explicit alliance with Con loses voters for both parties, and BXP risk losing their place to UKIP.
Had a bit of a heavy night last night, so just caught up with the Peterborough result. Wow. I thought Nigel would have stormed it. If he can’t win there he can’t win anywhere.I suspect the Brexit Party will prove a five-minute wonder and Nigel and Aaron will soon get bored with it. It might even not fight the next general election.
They'd win 300 odd seats if this result was replicated nationally.
Peterborough is 203rd on list of Brexit Party target seats according to Matthew Goodwin, potential certainly with 60% leave voters and on the back of the European Elections but not their ideal seat by any means. Especially as Labour and the Tories have known about and campaigned for this by election for a very long time.
People who explain away a by-election result by citing Matthew Goodwin's seat listings are always losing the argument - we call it Goodwin's Law.
Yes - a long dated stop on the backstop. I can see that being the 'Johnson Compromise' which ultimately after much ado gets through both parliament and the EU.
Peterborough is 203rd on list of Brexit Party target seats according to Matthew Goodwin, potential certainly with 60% leave voters and on the back of the European Elections but not their ideal seat by any means. Especially as Labour and the Tories have known about and campaigned for this by election for a very long time.
People who explain away a by-election result by citing Matthew Goodwin's seat listings are always losing the argument - we call it Goodwin's Law.
Ok, you can use Martin Baxter's Electoral Calculus which has Labour retaining Peterborough on latest polling despite TBP winning 250 seats elsewhere.
A headline of “Vote Farage *in a Lab-Con marginal*, and get Corbyn” isn’t quite so pithy.
The obvious way to resolve this is for TBP to soft-pedal seats like Peterborough* in a GE, providing the Con candidate is pro-Brexit - with Con doing the same in Lab-TBP, much as has been suggested between LD and Green.
Not sure there's much in that for Con, since the BXP ground game seems to be pretty pants even in the seats they *are* targetting, so their voters must be responding to the national message and will vote BXP even if they don't get a leaflet.
If they were to actually not run a candidate then that would make a difference, but an explicit alliance with Con loses voters for both parties, and BXP risk losing their place to UKIP.
There’s no way that Con will be so explicit as to stand aside anywhere, that would be suicide for the party elsewhere as it becomes a story.
Plenty of places where UKIP came second to Lab in 2015, with the Tories a distant 3rd or even 4th behind the LDs though. 40 or 50 seats from memory. It’s in neither Con nor TBP interests for there to be 300 results like we saw last night.
.. Labour might find it easier than expected in the Midlands where Leave vote is high, but where it won't coalesce around BXP in enough numbers to beat them. I could see a strange situation where all parties hover around the 18-25% range, but Lab comes out on top because of these dynamics.
Stoke-on-Trent South is a good example of that sort of seat, which Labour lost in 2017 even though they gained votes, and might well regain at the next GE even though losing votes.
You could guess BXP at (UKIP @ GE2015)*1.2, Lib Dems at ~GE2010 levels, Labour and Tories losing votes in the same proportion as Peterborough (Labour:Tory 2:3) to make it all add up, to give a result like:
LAB 13,500 CON 11,000 BXP 10,000 LDM 6,500 OTH 1,000
Labour win the seat with 32% of the vote down 15 points. It would be damned close.
Wouldn't there be lots and lots of seats like that. It would make the General Election almost impossible to predict even as the results came in. 1964 again.
Yes. Even if BXP only win a modest number of extra votes than UKIP in 2015, having the Lib Dems win votes from the big two as well, will put them much closer to winning seats in more places.
Morning all. I'd backed Labour for a small sum, so well done to them!
TBH I don't really think this by-election tells us much we didn't know. Both main parties are in dire straits in many ways, but the big difference is that Labour's position looks recoverable, but the Conservatives' Brexit split doesn't. There is no way, starting from here, for the government to come up with and actually implement a Brexit outcome which won't be something between bad and disastrous, and which won't attract vehement blame from at least one side of the now polarised divide, and probably both. The Brexit Party surge can't be bought off by imitating them, Farage and the other extremists will always find some rocks they can throw at any attempt to act as a vaguely sane government. The potential Tory vote will simply be split, probably for a long time, as the inevitable result of the ERG trashing the possibility of an orderly Brexit.
On the Labour side, as Peterborough shows, the brand remains strong. Even with a God-awful candidate, totally unfit to be an MP (albeit perhaps not as bad as the last one), and with the hit of sitting on the Brexit fence, and with the most extreme, unworthy and incompetent leader it has had for generations, the party still has a bedrock of support. More importantly still, those supporters (well represented here) who are totally fed up with it still retain a fundamental loyalty to the party, and can be won back. Given his age, it's likely that Corbyn will step down in the not-too-distant future; Labour only has to select as his replacement someone a bit more competent, who doesn't support terrorists and give comfort to anti-Semites, and they will clean up. Yes, their Brexit position is laughable, but they will be able to shrug off most of the blame for the fiasco.
Agree with all of the above Nabbers except the Jezza standing down part. Events and the Jezzbollah are conspiring to keep him in place and age will not prize him away another opportunity to walk through the door of 10 Downing Street as Prime Minister.
I don't think Corbyn wants to be PM. I also think the smarter people close to him (McDonnell, for example) realise that Corbyn has to be decoupled from Corbynism and a successor has to be found this side of an election. The problem is that right now there isn't one. The reliable Parliamentary advocates for Corbynism are few and far between - and those that are even remotely credible are even thinner on the ground. But it was significant that Rebecca Long Bailey did PMQs this week. It was not only a deliberate snub aimed at Thornberry, it was also a chance to put Long Bailey into a leadership situation. I did not see, but apparently she did pretty well.
This simply isn't true. Cambridgeshire North East next door would have been a more likely target for instance.
I meant under these circumstances - the Labour party embroiled in rows about anti-antisemitism, its previous incumbent in disgrace, the Tories split and foundering, Brexit undelivered and its implementation in disarray. Nigel couldn't have dreamed of a better backdrop for a by-election. He flunked it.
#GTTO Corbynites utterly triumphant on twitter this morning. #FBPE lot were always going to lose no matter what happened I think.
It was a win for FBPE who prioritise stopping Brexit over stopping Corbyn.
Alastair Campbell is the real loser, he was huge news just a couple of days ago
Neither side is keen on Brexit (FBPE less keen than GTTO) but I see it essentially as more of a liberalism vs socialism fight.
There is some crossover, depending what they prioritise.... Part of what I really like about Corbyn over New Labour is the much less authoritarian policies and thinking. It is part of the reason people like Mike Gapes don't fit in the Lib Dems...
The Labour left are a better fit for the Lib Dems in most circumstances, more left wing on economic policy and maybe there the Labour right are closer but on other aspects of policy the Lib Dems and Labour left have more in common.
Although the Lib Dems don't necessarily equate to Liberalism or FBPE... I think the really anti Labour FBPE types are your New Labour types who are only really liberal when it comes to economics though.
Nigel needs to keep his head down for a bit. After his by-election flop he's starting to look like a serial loser. People might soon start laughing at him.
TL;DR: the HS2 phase 2B scheme is being adapted ('passive provision') to allow construction of a linkline as part of Northern Powerhouse Rail, once the latter scheme has been decided upon. This is an additional cost that comes under the HS2 project, but will prevent disruption and more cost if/when a Liverpool link is created.
#GTTO Corbynites utterly triumphant on twitter this morning. #FBPE lot were always going to lose no matter what happened I think.
It was a win for FBPE who prioritise stopping Brexit over stopping Corbyn.
Alastair Campbell is the real loser, he was huge news just a couple of days ago
Neither side is keen on Brexit (FBPE less keen than GTTO) but I see it essentially as more of a liberalism vs socialism fight.
There is some crossover, depending what they prioritise.... Part of what I really like about Corbyn over New Labour is the much less authoritarian policies and thinking. It is part of the reason people like Mike Gapes don't fit in the Lib Dems...
The Labour left are a better fit for the Lib Dems in most circumstances, more left wing on economic policy and maybe there the Labour right are closer but on other aspects of policy the Lib Dems and Labour left have more in common.
Although the Lib Dems don't necessarily equate to Liberalism or FBPE... I think the really anti Labour FBPE types are your New Labour types who are only really liberal when it comes to economics though.
Peterborough is 203rd on list of Brexit Party target seats according to Matthew Goodwin, potential certainly with 60% leave voters and on the back of the European Elections but not their ideal seat by any means. Especially as Labour and the Tories have known about and campaigned for this by election for a very long time.
People who explain away a by-election result by citing Matthew Goodwin's seat listings are always losing the argument - we call it Goodwin's Law.
If BXP can't win a seat that's 203rd on the list then they can't form a Government.
One of my favourite charts that Mike shows is the share of votes for only Labour and Tory voters. So looking at the change in the Labour share of the Tory/Labour combined vote we get:
That is to say that whilst Labour's performance in by elections is worsening, the performance of the Tories has deteriorated at a faster rate - especially in Peterborough.
Peterborough is 203rd on list of Brexit Party target seats according to Matthew Goodwin, potential certainly with 60% leave voters and on the back of the European Elections but not their ideal seat by any means. Especially as Labour and the Tories have known about and campaigned for this by election for a very long time.
People who explain away a by-election result by citing Matthew Goodwin's seat listings are always losing the argument - we call it Goodwin's Law.
If BXP can't win a seat that's 203rd on the list then they can't form a Government.
Peterborough is 203rd on list of Brexit Party target seats according to Matthew Goodwin, potential certainly with 60% leave voters and on the back of the European Elections but not their ideal seat by any means. Especially as Labour and the Tories have known about and campaigned for this by election for a very long time.
People who explain away a by-election result by citing Matthew Goodwin's seat listings are always losing the argument - we call it Goodwin's Law.
If BXP can't win a seat that's 203rd on the list then they can't form a Government.
Clearly they can win the seat by squeezing the Tory vote.
One of my favourite charts that Mike shows is the share of votes for only Labour and Tory voters. So looking at the change in the Labour share of the Tory/Labour combined vote we get:
That is to say that whilst Labour's performance in by elections is worsening, the performance of the Tories has deteriorated at a faster rate - especially in Peterborough.
You'll see it again Brecon even as the Labour vote collapses to rubble.
Oooh! Oooh! Can I play? "Dear Santa May. I wanna monster truck and a bike, with the gears, and a new pair of socks with no hole, anna a bag of chips, and a muffin"
Oh no, wait. I'm not going to do that. Because I'm not six years old...
Morning all. I'd backed Labour for a small sum, so well done to them!
TBH I don't really think this by-election tells us much we didn't know. Both main parties are in dire straits in many ways, but the big difference is that Labour's position looks recoverable, but the Conservatives' Brexit split doesn't. There is no way, starting from here, for the government to come up with and actually implement a Brexit outcome which won't be something between bad and disastrous, and which won't attract vehement blame from at least one side of the now polarised divide, and probably both. The Brexit Party surge can't be bought off by imitating them, Farage and the other extremists will always find some rocks they can throw at any attempt to act as a vaguely sane government. The potential Tory vote will simply be split, probably for a long time, as the inevitable result of the ERG trashing the possibility of an orderly Brexit.
On the Labour side, as Peterborough shows, the brand remains strong. Even with a God-awful candidate, totally unfit to be an MP (albeit perhaps not as bad as the last one), and with the hit of sitting on the Brexit fence, and with the most extreme, unworthy and incompetent leader it has had for generations, the party still has a bedrock of support. More importantly still, those supporters (well represented here) who are totally fed up with it still retain a fundamental loyalty to the party, and can be won back. Given his age, it's likely that Corbyn will step down in the not-too-distant future; Labour only has to select as his replacement someone a bit more competent, who doesn't support terrorists and give comfort to anti-Semites, and they will clean up. Yes, their Brexit position is laughable, but they will be able to shrug off most of the blame for the fiasco.
Such a great post and analysis I’m almost willing to forgive you for drunkenly calling me a misogynist the other day, purely for expressing my utter dislike for McVey.
Lol! An immutable law that can be applied to almost anything. Anyone who tries to explain anything via the inane ramblings of the risible Goodwin is as guilty as he is!!
One of my favourite charts that Mike shows is the share of votes for only Labour and Tory voters. So looking at the change in the Labour share of the Tory/Labour combined vote we get:
That is to say that whilst Labour's performance in by elections is worsening, the performance of the Tories has deteriorated at a faster rate - especially in Peterborough.
You'll see it again Brecon even as the Labour vote collapses to rubble.
The Labour vote in Brecon is really down to the bone, I can't see it going anywhere.
Had a bit of a heavy night last night, so just caught up with the Peterborough result. Wow. I thought Nigel would have stormed it. If he can’t win there he can’t win anywhere.I suspect the Brexit Party will prove a five-minute wonder and Nigel and Aaron will soon get bored with it. It might even not fight the next general election.
They'd win 300 odd seats if this result was replicated nationally.
If!!!
The BXP are overrated losers. They were as short as 1/8 to win this seat in perfect conditions.
.. Labour might find it easier than expected in the Midlands where Leave vote is high, but where it won't coalesce around BXP in enough numbers to beat them. I could see a strange situation where all parties hover around the 18-25% range, but Lab comes out on top because of these dynamics.
Stoke-on-Trent South is a good example of that sort of seat, which Labour lost in 2017 even though they gained votes, and might well regain at the next GE even though losing votes.
You could guess BXP at (UKIP @ GE2015)*1.2, Lib Dems at ~GE2010 levels, Labour and Tories losing votes in the same proportion as Peterborough (Labour:Tory 2:3) to make it all add up, to give a result like:
LAB 13,500 CON 11,000 BXP 10,000 LDM 6,500 OTH 1,000
Labour win the seat with 32% of the vote down 15 points. It would be damned close.
Yeah, I think this is exactly the sort of seat this by election suggests might be winnable by Lab if they hold on to their core vote, and the tories fracture.
Peterborough is 203rd on list of Brexit Party target seats according to Matthew Goodwin, potential certainly with 60% leave voters and on the back of the European Elections but not their ideal seat by any means. Especially as Labour and the Tories have known about and campaigned for this by election for a very long time.
People who explain away a by-election result by citing Matthew Goodwin's seat listings are always losing the argument - we call it Goodwin's Law.
If BXP can't win a seat that's 203rd on the list then they can't form a Government.
Morning all. I'd backed Labour for a small sum, so well done to them!
TBH I don't really think this by-election tells us much we didn't know.
On the Labour side, as Peterborough shows, the brand remains strong. Even with a God-awful candidate, totally unfit to be an MP (albeit perhaps not as bad as the last one), and with the hit of sitting on the Brexit fence, and with the most extreme, unworthy and incompetent leader it has had for generations, the party still has a bedrock of support. More importantly still, those supporters (well represented here) who are totally fed up with it still retain a fundamental loyalty to the party, and can be won back. Given his age, it's likely that Corbyn will step down in the not-too-distant future; Labour only has to select as his replacement someone a bit more competent, who doesn't support terrorists and give comfort to anti-Semites, and they will clean up. Yes, their Brexit position is laughable, but they will be able to shrug off most of the blame for the fiasco.
Agree with all of the above Nabbers except the Jezza standing down part. Events and the Jezzbollah are conspiring to keep him in place and age will not prize him away another opportunity to walk through the door of 10 Downing Street as Prime Minister.
I don't think Corbyn wants to be PM. I also think the smarter people close to him (McDonnell, for example) realise that Corbyn has to be decoupled from Corbynism and a successor has to be found this side of an election. The problem is that right now there isn't one. The reliable Parliamentary advocates for Corbynism are few and far between - and those that are even remotely credible are even thinner on the ground. But it was significant that Rebecca Long Bailey did PMQs this week. It was not only a deliberate snub aimed at Thornberry, it was also a chance to put Long Bailey into a leadership situation. I did not see, but apparently she did pretty well.
She stuck doggedly to her script. Thornberry is capable of going off script. Still, it was Long-Bailey's first outing so she wasn't going to take risks.
This 'no deal legitimacy' blame is absolute bollocks. Its predicated on the idea the public are so stupid they are only considering it ok because of the PMs use of a meaningless slogan. May deserves mountains of blame, but that is just textbook displacement, because people dont want to admit that their anger should directed at the voters and supporters of no deal.
This simply isn't true. Cambridgeshire North East next door would have been a more likely target for instance.
I meant under these circumstances - the Labour party embroiled in rows about anti-antisemitism, its previous incumbent in disgrace, the Tories split and foundering, Brexit undelivered and its implementation in disarray. Nigel couldn't have dreamed of a better backdrop for a by-election. He flunked it.
That's like saying the SDP flunked Warrington in 1981. True, so far as it goes, but also not the whole truth.
Comments
Lewisham East: -18%
Newport West: -13%
Peterborough: -17%
Surely the priority is to catch them so they don't do it again?
Can you trace an Oyster card?
TBH I don't really think this by-election tells us much we didn't know. Both main parties are in dire straits in many ways, but the big difference is that Labour's position looks recoverable, but the Conservatives' Brexit split doesn't. There is no way, starting from here, for the government to come up with and actually implement a Brexit outcome which won't be something between bad and disastrous, and which won't attract vehement blame from at least one side of the now polarised divide, and probably both. The Brexit Party surge can't be bought off by imitating them, Farage and the other extremists will always find some rocks they can throw at any attempt to act as a vaguely sane government. The potential Tory vote will simply be split, probably for a long time, as the inevitable result of the ERG trashing the possibility of an orderly Brexit.
On the Labour side, as Peterborough shows, the brand remains strong. Even with a God-awful candidate, totally unfit to be an MP (albeit perhaps not as bad as the last one), and with the hit of sitting on the Brexit fence, and with the most extreme, unworthy and incompetent leader it has had for generations, the party still has a bedrock of support. More importantly still, those supporters (well represented here) who are totally fed up with it still retain a fundamental loyalty to the party, and can be won back. Given his age, it's likely that Corbyn will step down in the not-too-distant future; Labour only has to select as his replacement someone a bit more competent, who doesn't support terrorists and give comfort to anti-Semites, and they will clean up. Yes, their Brexit position is laughable, but they will be able to shrug off most of the blame for the fiasco.
From that point he could pivot to a "perfect vs good" position and say it was a starting point (which of course it is) and that he would commit to *bullshit, bullshit, technology, alternative arrangements, bullshit, bullshit* but it might get the WA over the line.
Along the lines of a ten year backstop time limit in the Withdrawal Agreement settled now, but the EU will make sure the permanent backstop goes back into any future state agreements made later.
"The Met Police have confirmed they are investigating the attack and have appealed for witnesses to contact police on 101 or tweet @MetCC and quote CAD737/30May. Alternatively, call Crimestoppers anonymously on 0800 555 111."
He was strongly pro-Remain when Mayor of London. He switched for the Referendum. He was strongly opposed to May's Deal. Then he voted for it.
Who knows what he would do in Office?
You could guess BXP at (UKIP @ GE2015)*1.2, Lib Dems at ~GE2010 levels, Labour and Tories losing votes in the same proportion as Peterborough (Labour:Tory 2:3) to make it all add up, to give a result like:
LAB 13,500
CON 11,000
BXP 10,000
LDM 6,500
OTH 1,000
Labour win the seat with 32% of the vote down 15 points. It would be damned close.
I fear my redpill-ing comment below might be correct: supporting the parties whilst such views are tolerated might act as a gateway drug for worse attitudes. Though to be fair, Labour are much further down that particular slope than the Brexit Party appear to be.
Of the many possible futures this is the one that I view as the most likely.
Johnson will find a way to pass the WA.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1136941465186308096
The obvious way to resolve this is for TBP to soft-pedal seats like Peterborough* in a GE, providing the Con candidate is pro-Brexit - with Con doing the same in Lab-TBP, much as has been suggested between LD and Green.
*If there hadn’t been the by-election, of course. Now they’ll be back to saying it’s a Lab-TBP marginal.
Alastair Campbell is the real loser, he was huge news just a couple of days ago
If they were to actually not run a candidate then that would make a difference, but an explicit alliance with Con loses voters for both parties, and BXP risk losing their place to UKIP.
Yes - a long dated stop on the backstop. I can see that being the 'Johnson Compromise' which ultimately after much ado gets through both parliament and the EU.
Not by October though. Another extension needed.
https://twitter.com/rorystewartuk/status/1136945524223991808?s=21
Plenty of places where UKIP came second to Lab in 2015, with the Tories a distant 3rd or even 4th behind the LDs though. 40 or 50 seats from memory. It’s in neither Con nor TBP interests for there to be 300 results like we saw last night.
The Labour left are a better fit for the Lib Dems in most circumstances, more left wing on economic policy and maybe there the Labour right are closer but on other aspects of policy the Lib Dems and Labour left have more in common.
Although the Lib Dems don't necessarily equate to Liberalism or FBPE... I think the really anti Labour FBPE types are your New Labour types who are only really liberal when it comes to economics though.
https://twitter.com/JoshuaRozenberg
A few days ago, TSE started screaming that HS2 should be cancelled as a linkline to Liverpool had also been cancelled.
As is sadly often the case with HS2, it appears that initial media reports may have been slightly inaccurate.
Anyone interested in this should perhaps read sections 1.25 to 1.29, and the entirety of 2.3 of the following newly-published document:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/806982/hs2-phase-2b-design-refinement-web.pdf
TL;DR: the HS2 phase 2B scheme is being adapted ('passive provision') to allow construction of a linkline as part of Northern Powerhouse Rail, once the latter scheme has been decided upon. This is an additional cost that comes under the HS2 project, but will prevent disruption and more cost if/when a Liverpool link is created.
That's hardly scrapping the idea.
Witney: 2.8 pp
Richmond Park*: -9.9 pp
Sleaford and North Hykeham: -7.5 pp
Copeland: -8.4 pp
Stoke-on-Trent Central: -3.2 pp
Lewisham East: 3.0 pp
Newport West: -1.2 pp
Peterborough: 8.4 pp
* Treating Zach as the Tory.
That is to say that whilst Labour's performance in by elections is worsening, the performance of the Tories has deteriorated at a faster rate - especially in Peterborough.
Oh no, wait. I'm not going to do that. Because I'm not six years old...
Lol! An immutable law that can be applied to almost anything. Anyone who tries to explain anything via the inane ramblings of the risible Goodwin is as guilty as he is!!
The BXP are overrated losers. They were as short as 1/8 to win this seat in perfect conditions.
They blew it. Poor. Very poor.