One of my favourite charts that Mike shows is the share of votes for only Labour and Tory voters. So looking at the change in the Labour share of the Tory/Labour combined vote we get:
That is to say that whilst Labour's performance in by elections is worsening, the performance of the Tories has deteriorated at a faster rate - especially in Peterborough.
You'll see it again Brecon even as the Labour vote collapses to rubble.
The Labour vote in Brecon is really down to the bone, I can't see it going anywhere.
An interesting one. ConHome have been sending questions to each leadership candidate, different for each person and focussing on things they’ve done and said previously
One of my favourite charts that Mike shows is the share of votes for only Labour and Tory voters. So looking at the change in the Labour share of the Tory/Labour combined vote we get:
That is to say that whilst Labour's performance in by elections is worsening, the performance of the Tories has deteriorated at a faster rate - especially in Peterborough.
You'll see it again Brecon even as the Labour vote collapses to rubble.
The Labour vote in Brecon is really down to the bone, I can't see it going anywhere.
It was 17.7% at the last GE. It'll be between 1000 and 2000 tops in the by election, that's plenty to fall.
Peterborough is 203rd on list of Brexit Party target seats according to Matthew Goodwin, potential certainly with 60% leave voters and on the back of the European Elections but not their ideal seat by any means. Especially as Labour and the Tories have known about and campaigned for this by election for a very long time.
People who explain away a by-election result by citing Matthew Goodwin's seat listings are always losing the argument - we call it Goodwin's Law.
If BXP can't win a seat that's 203rd on the list then they can't form a Government.
Clearly they can win the seat by squeezing the Tory vote.
Hard to imagine many Tory voters who would be tempted by the dubious delights of Nigel not being squeezed yesterday tbh.
Such a great post and analysis I’m almost willing to forgive you for drunkenly calling me a misogynist the other day, purely for expressing my utter dislike for McVey.
I think Gove's former odds of 6/1, 7/1 was correct
Leadsom is fouling up everyone's true price.
Which should make most of them better value. There’s definitely someone out there with thousands (maybe even tens of thousands) on Leadsom as next leader.
And what percentage of those same voters would think Raab is a suitable candidate to be PM? I better it's a lot fewer than the 47% backing Boris....
As much as I instinctively dislike him, Gove is clearly head and shoulders above the lazy and incompetent Boris and the fatuous and ignorant Raab.
Raab with his nonsense about proroguing Parliament is actively dangerous.
Its thr most worrying view I've seen in the race . I mean, I voted brexit too and wanted MPs to take us out long before now, but it is not worth any price for heavens sake. These Tory Brexiteers are nuts, or know it's wrong to suggest such things but only care that the party members like to hear it, which is worse.
PPE at Oxbridge is the standard route, Cambridge does not do a standard politics course bar SPS which is seen as a bit lightweight by some. Politicians from Cambridge tend to study History like Portillo
This simply isn't true. Cambridgeshire North East next door would have been a more likely target for instance.
I meant under these circumstances - the Labour party embroiled in rows about anti-antisemitism, its previous incumbent in disgrace, the Tories split and foundering, Brexit undelivered and its implementation in disarray. Nigel couldn't have dreamed of a better backdrop for a by-election. He flunked it.
That's like saying the SDP flunked Warrington in 1981. True, so far as it goes, but also not the whole truth.
Maybe, ordinary voters do not have the same agenda as anti-Labour journalists and sidekicks.
Fair enough. But I don't see how even Johnson can pull it off given what he has said about No Deal and given the sheer bloody-minded lunacy of the ERG. It would be a gift to Farage at a time when the LibDems have repeatedly shown they are winning over a lot of Tory Remainers. This is not 2015 when the Tories were able to squeeze the LD vote dry to counter UKIP.
I have no idea and they are all bad options with bad consequences but, just as TMay at times told the House that Option X would simply not get through and hence would not be put forward, likewise Boris could make it be known that no deal would simply not get through and hence to embark on that course would be suicidal (which it would be).
From that point he could pivot to a "perfect vs good" position and say it was a starting point (which of course it is) and that he would commit to *bullshit, bullshit, technology, alternative arrangements, bullshit, bullshit* but it might get the WA over the line.
Yep - it does seem as if most of the Tory leadership candidates are betting on the Commons finding a way to halt a No Deal Brexit on 31st October. The entirely unhinged Dominic Raab seems to be the exception.
I would say most are absolutely relying on the commons blocking No Deal rather than betting on it.
If the new leader actually gets what he or she are telling the members they really really want (with their fingers crossed behind their backs) they will wet themselves on the spot.
If the commons do, as expected, block No Deal and the new leader calls a GE are the Tories going to campaign on a No Deal policy?
Comments
Replies received from Jeremy Hunt https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/06/hunts-answers-to-the-seven-questions-we-asked-of-him-yesterday.html
And Michael Gove https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/06/goves-answer-to-the-seven-questions-we-asked-of-him.html
Make of them what you will, IMO they both give well-considered answers (but I don’t have a vote).
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/jun/06/amnesty-international-to-make-almost-100-staff-redundant
What a clown.
Glad I am red on him frankly.
NEW THREAD
In fairness I believe she works hard for her constituency.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-48555889
A true Battle of the Bastards yesterday - not racism vs non-racism, but choose your preferred flavour.
If the new leader actually gets what he or she are telling the members they really really want (with their fingers crossed behind their backs) they will wet themselves on the spot.
If the commons do, as expected, block No Deal and the new leader calls a GE are the Tories going to campaign on a No Deal policy?