politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There’s no automaticity that the next Tory leader becomes Prim
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England looking a bit useless in the second half. Bit like world cup 2018
LAB have won Peterborough0 -
If you are still knocking up voters after 9pm it tends to be counterproductive, people are putting the children to bed, watching TV etc and get annoyed so no harm in a pre count pint.The_Taxman said:
On the Daily Mail website Nigel Farage is pictured getting shit faced in a Peterborough pub. So either he expects to win hands down or he is not going to do very well. Bad form taking the voters for granted either way...kjohnw said:
Well known tactic for parties campaigning on polling day to GOTVbigjohnowls said:Britain Elects
@britainelects
2m2 minutes ago
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Labour MPs campaigning in #Peterborough today have remarked that it's too close to call between themselves and the Brexit Party.
If the Brexit Party have won they have probably done so by now and the same if Labour has got its vote out after all
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But in Newport West the Labour vote % went down 13 points, and in Lewisham East (2018) it went down by 18 pointsPulpstar said:Labour often has an uncanny ability to dig voters out the ground in by-elections. Noone saw the absolute scale of their win coming in Oldham West & Royton a few years back.
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Trump could not decide whether Boris or Farage was the British Trump but he also said he liked Jeremy (Hunt not Corbyn) though he said he would try and work with Corbyn if he became PM though he still thought it unlikelyScrapheap_as_was said:
Ooh, I think I'd rather watch the Liverpool victory parade.... will have to miss it.HYUFD said:'When Piers met the President' on ITV now
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Perhaps "the absolute cutting edge" wasn't the best-chosen phrase to describe this spiral staircase going up and down in the middle of a swimming pool.JosiasJessop said:
Access is the obvious one: and they've thought of it:williamglenn said:Anyone see any design flaws with this?
https://twitter.com/cnni/status/1136634362194210816?s=21
""We faced some quite major technical challenges to this building, the biggest one being how to actually get into the pool," said Compass Pool's swimming pool designer and technical director Alex Kemsley in an interview on the company's website.
"The solution is based on the door of a submarine, coupled with a rotating spiral staircase which rises from the pool floor when someone wants to get in or out -- the absolute cutting edge of swimming pool and building design and a little bit James Bond to boot!""
I can't really see such a mechanism working in the medium- or long-term though.
I can see other complexities (e.g. how to stop it overflowing, how to fill it up etc), but I assume infinity pools already have those sussed.0 -
True ! Their by-election performances have been a bit shit recently, and that's before the recent Lib Dem and Brexit party surges.Sunil_Prasannan said:
But in Newport West the Labour vote % went down 13 points, and in Lewisham East (2018) it went down by 18 pointsPulpstar said:Labour often has an uncanny ability to dig voters out the ground in by-elections. Noone saw the absolute scale of their win coming in Oldham West & Royton a few years back.
Noone notices these things when the by-election is an easy hold though.0 -
Isn't it what everyone tells their supporters on polling day? If it weren't running close, they might not bother to vote!kle4 said:
I feel confident people could find examples of parties saying it was close, when they win comfortably. Not saying Labour have done that, but it seems like a stock phrase, which we cannot really infer much of use.SandyRentool said:
'Running close' is an admission of defeat.MikeSmithson said:LAB is strong in Peterborough because it has good voter data after winning the seat at GE2017. Farage's party hasn't got that sort of election machine.
I'm hearing that LAB running close0 -
Particularly Labour votersChris said:
Isn't it what everyone tells their supporters on polling day? If it weren't running close, they might not bother to vote!kle4 said:
I feel confident people could find examples of parties saying it was close, when they win comfortably. Not saying Labour have done that, but it seems like a stock phrase, which we cannot really infer much of use.SandyRentool said:
'Running close' is an admission of defeat.MikeSmithson said:LAB is strong in Peterborough because it has good voter data after winning the seat at GE2017. Farage's party hasn't got that sort of election machine.
I'm hearing that LAB running close
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I was telling for the LDs outside the Church Hall in Zennor at the 1997 GE. I turned up at 8.30pm and by 9.30pm it was pitch dark. This was pre-mobile phone torches and I had a torch in the car but not with me.HYUFD said:
If you are still knocking up voters after 9pm it tends to be counterproductive, people are putting the children to bed, watching TV etc and get annoyed so no hard in a pre count pint.
I decided it wasn't worth it and as I left I passed a voter using a torch to reach the polling station.
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Peterborough - home of the Nene Valley Railway. A line I've never been on.Sunil_Prasannan said:
But in Newport West the Labour vote % went down 13 points, and in Lewisham East (2018) it went down by 18 pointsPulpstar said:Labour often has an uncanny ability to dig voters out the ground in by-elections. Noone saw the absolute scale of their win coming in Oldham West & Royton a few years back.
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THIRD!RochdalePioneers said:Brexit win, LibDems 2nd, Labour 3rd, Cons 4th
If so, that makes it another quasi Ref2. Big ramifications for the next GE if that holds.
BP vs LD.
Farage vs Jo.
Trump vs Hillary.
They say that what happens in America happens here in due course, don't they?0 -
Never been on it either! I did the Bristol Harbour Railway (or at least the bit they opened) at Easter, though.SandyRentool said:
Peterborough - home of the Nene Valley Railway. A line I've never been on.Sunil_Prasannan said:
But in Newport West the Labour vote % went down 13 points, and in Lewisham East (2018) it went down by 18 pointsPulpstar said:Labour often has an uncanny ability to dig voters out the ground in by-elections. Noone saw the absolute scale of their win coming in Oldham West & Royton a few years back.
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St Ives must be a great chance of a Lib Dem gain in the next GE.stodge said:
I was telling for the LDs outside the Church Hall in Zennor at the 1997 GE. I turned up at 8.30pm and by 9.30pm it was pitch dark. This was pre-mobile phone torches and I had a torch in the car but not with me.HYUFD said:
If you are still knocking up voters after 9pm it tends to be counterproductive, people are putting the children to bed, watching TV etc and get annoyed so no hard in a pre count pint.
I decided it wasn't worth it and as I left I passed a voter using a torch to reach the polling station.0 -
Meltdown we will never win anything. LAB heading to downing street0
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I'm planning on some yellow pen action next weekend. Watch this space...Sunil_Prasannan said:
Never been on it either! I did the Bristol Harbour Railway (or at least the bit they opened) at Easter, though.SandyRentool said:
Peterborough - home of the Nene Valley Railway. A line I've never been on.Sunil_Prasannan said:
But in Newport West the Labour vote % went down 13 points, and in Lewisham East (2018) it went down by 18 pointsPulpstar said:Labour often has an uncanny ability to dig voters out the ground in by-elections. Noone saw the absolute scale of their win coming in Oldham West & Royton a few years back.
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Familiar goal conceded there ..... bring on Lucas Moura!0
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Here on YouTube for those who missed it:HYUFD said:'When Piers met the President' on ITV now
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1uKNAMU1Qw0 -
Someguessespredictions:
1. TBP will win but with a smaller margin than expected.
2. MSM will spin this to say that this shows how TBP are actually the losers (somehow).
3. Corbyn will ignore the fact he has been trounced and will continue regardless.
4. Theresa May will step down as Tory leader tomorrow.
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I don't think either of those had quite the kitchen sink treatment Oldham or Peterborough got/are getting.Sunil_Prasannan said:
But in Newport West the Labour vote % went down 13 points, and in Lewisham East (2018) it went down by 18 pointsPulpstar said:Labour often has an uncanny ability to dig voters out the ground in by-elections. Noone saw the absolute scale of their win coming in Oldham West & Royton a few years back.
Either way it'll be fascinating look at what their high-water mark is.0 -
https://www.ft.com/content/864c3a96-fbf1-11e5-b5f5-070dca6d0a0dIshmael_Z said:
I would be non-amazed to learn that he is a very moderate drinker. The pint is kinda like Wilson's pipe.kjohnw said:
I don’t think holding a pint in his hand can be described as getting shit facedThe_Taxman said:
On the Daily Mail website Nigel Farage is pictured getting shit faced in a Peterborough pub. So either he expects to win hands down or he is not going to do very well. Bad form taking the voters for granted either way...kjohnw said:
Well known tactic for parties campaigning on polling day to GOTVbigjohnowls said:Britain Elects
@britainelects
2m2 minutes ago
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Labour MPs campaigning in #Peterborough today have remarked that it's too close to call between themselves and the Brexit Party.0 -
At Ives 1-50 LD GE 2022. CON might get 0 seats Cornwall0
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Sorry, what footy match is being played?0
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This is a good example of Corbyn cult thinking: "voters must compromise with us, not the other way round."
https://twitter.com/GeorgeAylett/status/11366148127152947200 -
England v liberal democrats0
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Yes, the LDs won it back then - the next morning, after hardly any sleep, I went down to Penzance to hear the result. St Ives counts on the morning after as the boxes are brought over from the Scillies by helicopter.Pulpstar said:
St Ives must be a great chance of a Lib Dem gain in the next GE.stodge said:
I was telling for the LDs outside the Church Hall in Zennor at the 1997 GE. I turned up at 8.30pm and by 9.30pm it was pitch dark. This was pre-mobile phone torches and I had a torch in the car but not with me.
I decided it wasn't worth it and as I left I passed a voter using a torch to reach the polling station.
With all the gains elsewhere, I was sure the LDs would win and sure enough Andrew George scraped home by 7,000. Oddly enough, there was a huge cheer from all sides for David Harris, who had been the Conservative MP until deciding to retire. The constituency has only had four MPs since 1966 - John Nott, Harris, Andrew George and Derek Thomas.
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Fucking yes!!!-1
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Oh oh-1
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Both could be true. A fantastic ground operation, but not fantastic enough to overcome the anger and/or apathy of their target would be voters.Black_Rook said:On the Labour front, it is variously reported that their GOTV operation and local data are strong, and that a large proportion of their likely voters are staying at home or turning out for other parties. It rather depends on whom one listens to.
IE, they lose but not by as much as they would have done without the deep expertise and the sterling effort.
Is it good that they are busting a gut? Yes, I think it is. You should always try your best and not pretend otherwise. I hate all that "Oh it's all so effortless" shtick. Leave that to Old Etonians.0 -
Bollocks absolute joke-1
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If you're serious I'll offer you 1/25 on a LD gain at the next GE. I'll take up to £40 to win £1k if the LDs fail to gain it, though I imagine if you are willing to take the bet you might not want quite so much exposure.Ave_it said:At Ives 1-50 LD GE 2022. CON might get 0 seats Cornwall
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Sunil!!!!Sunil_Prasannan said:Sorry, what footy match is being played?
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Nations League, OK, but it's a league?Sunil_Prasannan said:Sorry, what footy match is being played?
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Which party benefits most if there is or isn't extra time? Are many people in Peterborough watching the match and thinking "just got time to vote on the way back from the pub"?0
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No - none.oldpolitics said:Which party benefits most if there is or isn't extra time? Are many people in Peterborough watching the match and thinking "just got time to vote on the way back from the pub"?
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He'll get huge media exposure. With Farage insisting he is in shot for as much as he physically can.....JosiasJessop said:I have absolutely no idea how Peterborough's going to go aside from gut instinct. The Brexit Party have momentum (but not Momentum), so I find it hard to see past them.
It'll be interesting to see how a single Brexit Party MP does.0 -
Sorry about the swearing folks. Mark Reckless! 😀0
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It would be better if it was called The League of NationsSunil_Prasannan said:
Nations League, OK, but it's a league?Sunil_Prasannan said:Sorry, what footy match is being played?
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AVAR IT?Ave_it said:Bollocks absolute joke
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Blimey, sounds like a very decent err "ground game" ! We don't know how effective they're being though.HYUFD said:0 -
No betting please on this site0
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Might marginally help Labour would be my guess. Talking about 30 vote swing potential here max.Benpointer said:
No - none.oldpolitics said:Which party benefits most if there is or isn't extra time? Are many people in Peterborough watching the match and thinking "just got time to vote on the way back from the pub"?
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Hopefully they're telling everyone that if they want to stop Brexit, they should vote Lib Dem.Pulpstar said:Blimey, sounds like a very decent err "ground game" ! We don't know how effective they're being though.
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The Brexit Party has been advertising that fact heavily in their Peterborough literature.williamglenn said:
Hopefully they're telling everyone that if they want to stop Brexit, they should vote Lib Dem.Pulpstar said:Blimey, sounds like a very decent err "ground game" ! We don't know how effective they're being though.
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Rain, or whatever, those at ground level won't bat an eyelid - most of them have got used to it by now.MarkHopkins said:Who needs a drain when the water can just fall off the building.
People below will just think it's rain.
It is London.0 -
The unforgettable Neil on 63 up still a LD activist I see0
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"A lot has happened in Germany since (1907)!stodge said:Evening all
With the excitement in Denmark behind us, some interesting polling from countries due south.
First, an Infomap poll in Germany puts the Greens on 26% just ahead of the CDU/CSU on 25% with AfD on 13% and the SPD at a woeful 12%. Their new leadership will need to start turning things round quickly. The last time the SPD was fourth in a national election was 1907 but a lot has happened in Germany since then. To compare, a Forschunggruppe poll has the Union on 27% with the Greens on 26% and the AfD and SPD level on 13% so not a lot of difference.
Further south still into Austria and the latest poll shows the fragmentation of the three party system into something more interesting. The People's Party has a big lead with 37% with the SPD on 21% and Freedom on 20% but both NEOS and the Greens are on 10% which, as I've argued before, makes a People's Party-NEOS coalition for Kurz if he wins well in September.
Obviously on these numbers he could choose to govern alone and it might be welcome for him to have options which don't include either the SPD or Freedom.
Masterful understatement. 1 -
He's talking about FBPE not 'voters'.williamglenn said:This is a good example of Corbyn cult thinking: "voters must compromise with us, not the other way round."
https://twitter.com/GeorgeAylett/status/1136614812715294720
And what he says is correct. You have made the exact same point yourself.0 -
Excellent. We can find out who has won Peterborough a few weeks after the next election when their replacement has been voted in. Unusual experiment in the effect of incumbency - does it still work when no-one knows who the incumbent is?nunuone said:0 -
Ee gads. It seems in a fit of madness some time ago I actually stuck money on Labour to win today. At shitty odds. What was I thinking?0
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Interesting day at Trent Bridge. Any news from Peterborough?0
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You were probably thinking Labour would win. It is interesting that Betfair has Labour longer and LibDems shorter than the high street firms.Alistair said:Ee gads. It seems in a fit of madness some time ago I actually stuck money on Labour to win today. At shitty odds. What was I thinking?
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John Stones was shit in the world cup semi final and he's shit in this semi as well.
#Consistent0 -
Shyte deluxe0
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I bet we don't win cricket world cup either0
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Jo Konta for SPOTY - all about the tennisAve_it said:I bet we don't win cricket world cup either
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Three minutes past ten and still no David Dimbleby with an exit poll.0
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I love Jo Konta!
Andrew Adonis no it doesn't matter. LAB have won and Corbyn will be moving in soon0 -
If the Brexit Party had 1000, Labour had 500 so it looks like the Brexit Party may have won the ground game after allPulpstar said:
Blimey, sounds like a very decent err "ground game" ! We don't know how effective they're being though.HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1136740823456976897?s=200 -
He is the most fascinating participant from 7Up, really quality television of the sort Granada used to specialise in.HYUFD said:The unforgettable Neil on 63 up still a LD activist I see
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I don't quite see what is so significant about it if Labour do win. Yes it is not a safe seat, but it is one they already hold, against possibly the most shambolic government in living memory.HYUFD said:0 -
Darlington didn't matter. LAB got creamed three months later0
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I assume the Tories did not even ask for any activists beyond MPs, lest they be embarrassed when virtually no one showed and those that did did so for the Brexit Party?HYUFD said:
If the Brexit Party had 1000, Labour had 500 so it looks like the Brexit Party may have won the ground game after allPulpstar said:
Blimey, sounds like a very decent err "ground game" ! We don't know how effective they're being though.HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1136740823456976897?s=200 -
Size doesn’t matter, it’s what you do with it that counts.HYUFD said:
If the Brexit Party had 1000, Labour had 500 so it looks like the Brexit Party may have won the ground game after allPulpstar said:
Blimey, sounds like a very decent err "ground game" ! We don't know how effective they're being though.HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1136740823456976897?s=200 -
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Labour have won in Peterborough. Night folks.0
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How do you know?KentRising said:Labour have won in Peterborough. Night folks.
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Not much point having feet on the ground if you don't know who your supporters are. Are the BXP likely to have data available to send 1000 people knocking up. I doubt itHYUFD said:
If the Brexit Party had 1000, Labour had 500 so it looks like the Brexit Party may have won the ground game after allPulpstar said:
Blimey, sounds like a very decent err "ground game" ! We don't know how effective they're being though.HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1136740823456976897?s=200 -
Tories *now* think they've lost.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/11367417514593894400 -
I got emails asking for people to go campaign with Shaun Bailey on Tuesday.kle4 said:
I assume the Tories did not even ask for any activists beyond MPs, lest they be embarrassed when virtually no one showed and those that did did so for the Brexit Party?HYUFD said:
If the Brexit Party had 1000, Labour had 500 so it looks like the Brexit Party may have won the ground game after allPulpstar said:
Blimey, sounds like a very decent err "ground game" ! We don't know how effective they're being though.HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1136740823456976897?s=20
Edit: prediction: exact 4-way tie. Failing which, at least three parties to get over 20% and none to get more than 35%.0 -
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1136741233437675520?s=20
Yes, it is still the one ITV programme I will always try and watch, although sadly they are getting to the age now that 1 or 2 of the participants have passed awayAramintaMoonbeamQC said:
He is the most fascinating participant from 7Up, really quality television of the sort Granada used to specialise in.HYUFD said:The unforgettable Neil on 63 up still a LD activist I see
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Sell shares in stones.0
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Tonight will be the last by election covered by the This Week team on BBC1 as the show ends next month after over 15 years.
Won’t be quite the same without Michael Portillo, Andrew Neil, that nice Lib Dem lady and whichever Labour person is available previewing the results!0 -
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There will be another semi final at Wembley next year. Let's hope we don't f~`` it up again0
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There's nothing quite like being mocked by foreign fans in your own language.0
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The Russians probably told them.OllyT said:
Not much point having feet on the ground if you don't know who your supporters are. Are the BXP likely to have data available to send 1000 people knocking up. I doubt itHYUFD said:
If the Brexit Party had 1000, Labour had 500 so it looks like the Brexit Party may have won the ground game after allPulpstar said:
Blimey, sounds like a very decent err "ground game" ! We don't know how effective they're being though.HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1136740823456976897?s=200 -
Barring a huge shock the BP win .
The second and third will be interesting . Bear in mind at the last election Labour had 48% v the Lib Dems had 3% !
Before the coalition in 2010 the Lib Dems scored close to 20% .
It’s clear a lot of that 20% deserted the Lib Dems for Labour , how many have returned .
I think Labour coming third would be a huge shock given this seat isn’t really condusive to a Lib Dem surge .
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Labour has come in two points on Betfair since polls closed.AndyJS said:
How do you know?KentRising said:Labour have won in Peterborough. Night folks.
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So if you ignore the only policy of any significance for the party right now, they and the members are not lurching to the right. OkHYUFD said:
I wasn't being entirely literal, though I assume the number is less than Lab and Brexit.Endillion said:
I got emails asking for people to go campaign with Shaun Bailey on Tuesday.kle4 said:
I assume the Tories did not even ask for any activists beyond MPs, lest they be embarrassed when virtually no one showed and those that did did so for the Brexit Party?HYUFD said:
If the Brexit Party had 1000, Labour had 500 so it looks like the Brexit Party may have won the ground game after allPulpstar said:
Blimey, sounds like a very decent err "ground game" ! We don't know how effective they're being though.HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1136740823456976897?s=20
Edit: prediction: exact 4-way tie. Failing which, at least three parties to get over 20% and none to get more than 35%.
I would dearly love a 4 way marginal. Or even 5 way somehow, with the Greens surging too. The utter confusion would be amazing.0 -
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Agreed.nico67 said:Barring a huge shock the BP win .
The second and third will be interesting . Bear in mind at the last election Labour had 48% v the Lib Dems had 3% !
Before the coalition in 2010 the Lib Dems scored close to 20% .
It’s clear a lot of that 20% deserted the Lib Dems for Labour , how many have returned .
I think Labour coming third would be a huge shock given this seat isn’t really condusive to a Lib Dem surge .
A win for Labour, no matter it should be an easy hold if the Tories collapse as expected, would be a good result.
A second place but being close to first would clearly not be great, but they can spin it.
Third plan is in Euro election territory - awful, and only spared worse shame by the Tories doing even worse.0 -
Why does it take them that long to count? Surely they could draft in the Sunderland or Newcastle super fast counters?HYUFD said:0 -
A win would be fantastic for Corbyn, he'll carry on with his hokey-kokey Brexit policy no end.0
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Labour still 4/1 with Betfair if you think they can win it.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1583593680 -
I usually overestimate Labour's chances, so I hope they don't prove me doing the reverse for once after tipping BXP to win.0
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I'll win £70 if Labour win and lose £20 if it's Brexit party. Not going overboard here, unlike my bets against Leadsom...AndyJS said:Labour still 4/1 with Betfair if you think they can win it.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1583593680 -
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Utter humiliation we are Scotland #ruth0
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A Sir Lynton Crosby firm poll.williamglenn said:0 -
Gotta love the FTkinabalu said:
'Stewed Cheese" ... ???AlastairMeeks said:He is not a moderate drinker:
https://www.ft.com/content/864c3a96-fbf1-11e5-b5f5-070dca6d0a0d
"Yet as Farage jovially plunges into his pint of ale, there is a sense that he may be losing his touch."
Oh.0 -
It is fascinating television, highly entertaining, sublime editing, and I have followed the series throughout my lifetime.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:He is the most fascinating participant from 7Up, really quality television of the sort Granada used to specialise in.
But, it is no less exploitative of the participants than Love Island or Jeremy Kyle. I felt a bit queasy watching this week.0 -
Lay (Bet Against) Backer's
Brexit Party1.22£80.00£17.20
Back (Bet For) Odds Stake Profit
Conservative 21.00£2.00 £40.00
Liberal Democrat 48.00 £2.00 £94.00
Let's see...0
