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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The overnight figures don’t look good for many o the pollsters

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,659
    > @Jonathan said:
    > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > > @Charles said:
    > > > > @JonWC said:
    > > >
    > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > >
    > > > > > > @JonWC said:
    > > >
    > > > > > > And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky?
    > > >
    > > > > >
    > > >
    > > > > > Any referendum would have to be no deal - revoke. There is no deal to put forward
    > > >
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > > > Serious question - you think the people's vote campain and the Labour supporters who have explicitly said the opposite would dare? Genuine question to which I don't claim to know the answer.
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > You highlight the practical difficulties of a referendum as the HOC would have to agree the choices and goodness only knows how that would be resolved though you cannot have deal v remain as there is no deal
    > > >
    > > > Why do the Remainers get another go?
    > >
    > > I do not think they should to be fair
    >
    > We need a route out of the cul de sac he Leavers have taken us down. They have had their chance time and time again to Brexit, it have flunked it, By their own actions they have revived Remain as a viable way out.

    The cul-de-sac has been made by not by Leavers, but by those 400+ MPs elected on a manifesto to implement Brexit - but refusing to do so.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 12,500
    > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > What idiot sent Steve Baker out to front for the Tories rather than locking him in an oubliette of some description?
    >
    > Pompous, hypocritical and stupid.
    >
    > https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1132925942874202114
    >
    >
    >
    > It means I tipped Steve Baker at 200/1 earlier on this month.

    No it is simply that Mr Bakers counting starts to go wobbly when it goes past 30.....
  • ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    > @Scott_P said:
    > Why do the Remainers get another go?
    >
    > Because we live in a democracy.

    33% voted for a party with no internal democracy.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    ah009 said:

    33% voted for a party with no internal democracy.

    And they were free to do so.

    Isn't democracy great?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,091
    > @Foxy said:
    > Just a bit of fun....if all the CUK votes were added to the LibDem tally:
    >
    >
    >
    > NE: LDs +1 MEP, BXP -1
    >
    > Yorks: no change
    >
    > NW: no change
    >
    > W Mids: no change
    >
    > Wales: no change
    >
    > E Mids: no change
    >
    > SW: no change
    >
    > SE: LDs +1, Lab -1
    >
    > Lon: no change
    >
    > East: no change
    >
    > Scotland: LDs +1, Tory -1
    >
    >
    >
    > Revised seats: BXP 28, LD 19, Lab 9, Green 7, Con 3, SNP 3, PC 1
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > And if LibDem, CUK and Green votes are all combined:
    >
    >
    >
    > NE: +1 from BXP as above (reversed if UKIP combined with BXP)
    >
    > Yorks: no change
    >
    > NW: no change
    >
    > W Mids: +1 from the Tories (seat goes to BXP instead with UKIP+BXP)
    >
    > Wales: no change
    >
    > E Mids: +1 from BXP (reversed if UKIP+BXP)
    >
    > SW: no change
    >
    > SE: +1 from Lab as above
    >
    > Lon: +1 from BXP (reversed if UKIP+BXP)
    >
    > East: +1 from BXP (reversed if UKIP+BXP)
    >
    > Scotland: +1 from Tory as above
    >
    >
    >
    > Revised seats: LD/Green 30, BXP 25, Lab 9, Con 2, SNP 3, PC 1
    >
    >
    >
    > (or BXP/UKIP 30, LD/Green 25, Lab 9, Con 2, SNP 3, PC 1)
    >
    > Interesting, an Alliance would not have helped much under Dehondt.

    But yes? The CUK vote tally is low and achieved nothing, yet added to the LibDem total it would deliver three extra MEPs, taking them from 16 to 19, which is a significant improvement.

    And a wider Green/LibDem Alliance would have clearly topped the poll, producing an entirely different narrative for the media - yet would have been blunted had UKIP packed up shop altogether.

    Both conclusions illustrate the damage that relatively small 'splinters' can do to the eventual seat tally.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 47,497
    > @Jonathan said:
    > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > > @Charles said:
    > > > > @JonWC said:
    > > >
    > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > >
    > > > > > > @JonWC said:
    > > >
    > > > > > > And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky?
    > > >
    > > > > >
    > > >
    > > > > > Any referendum would have to be no deal - revoke. There is no deal to put forward
    > > >
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > > > Serious question - you think the people's vote campain and the Labour supporters who have explicitly said the opposite would dare? Genuine question to which I don't claim to know the answer.
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > You highlight the practical difficulties of a referendum as the HOC would have to agree the choices and goodness only knows how that would be resolved though you cannot have deal v remain as there is no deal
    > > >
    > > > Why do the Remainers get another go?
    > >
    > > I do not think they should to be fair
    >
    > We need a route out of the cul de sac he Leavers have taken us down. They have had their chance time and time again to Brexit, it have flunked it, By their own actions they have revived Remain as a viable way out.

    Not at all sure that it would not result in a 50 50 vote
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,693
    If Labour want a referendum they have to back the deal to get an amended referendum vote through, right?

    Be ironic if May quit on the eve of unexpected victory.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,042
    > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > @Jonathan said:
    > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > > > @Charles said:
    > > > > > @JonWC said:
    > > > >
    > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > > >
    > > > > > > > @JonWC said:
    > > > >
    > > > > > > > And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky?
    > > > >
    > > > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > > > > Any referendum would have to be no deal - revoke. There is no deal to put forward
    > > > >
    > > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > > > Serious question - you think the people's vote campain and the Labour supporters who have explicitly said the opposite would dare? Genuine question to which I don't claim to know the answer.
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > > You highlight the practical difficulties of a referendum as the HOC would have to agree the choices and goodness only knows how that would be resolved though you cannot have deal v remain as there is no deal
    > > > >
    > > > > Why do the Remainers get another go?
    > > >
    > > > I do not think they should to be fair
    > >
    > > We need a route out of the cul de sac he Leavers have taken us down. They have had their chance time and time again to Brexit, it have flunked it, By their own actions they have revived Remain as a viable way out.
    >
    > The cul-de-sac has been made by not by Leavers, but by those 400+ MPs elected on a manifesto to implement Brexit - but refusing to do so.

    The was a majority for Brexit if the ideological right could compromise just a little bit. The ERG blew it.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,888
    > @Jonathan said:
    > > @bigjohnowls said:
    > > > @ydoethur said:
    > > > What idiot sent Steve Baker out to front for the Tories rather than locking him in an oubliette of some description?
    > > >
    > > > Pompous, hypocritical and stupid.
    > >
    > > No way to talk about the man who if he makes it to the final 2 will be our next PM
    >
    > It is possible that today that you might as it that Corbyn May have got thing slightly wrong this time?

    Comrade

    Not sure that is a sentence.

    I suspect my answer is yes because in the best opportunity to protest people will be drawn to both extremes. Corbyn wanted to defeat the extremes and bring the middle ground together. The strategy lost a thitd of Labour voters.

    You are an extremist (I presume) in that you want to overturn a Democratic result

    I am a moderate like Corbyn wanting neither to overturn the vote or implement a No Deal BREXIT

    Ironic really
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,042
    > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > @Jonathan said:
    > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > > > @Charles said:
    > > > > > @JonWC said:
    > > > >
    > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > > >
    > > > > > > > @JonWC said:
    > > > >
    > > > > > > > And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky?
    > > > >
    > > > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > > > > Any referendum would have to be no deal - revoke. There is no deal to put forward
    > > > >
    > > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > > > Serious question - you think the people's vote campain and the Labour supporters who have explicitly said the opposite would dare? Genuine question to which I don't claim to know the answer.
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > > You highlight the practical difficulties of a referendum as the HOC would have to agree the choices and goodness only knows how that would be resolved though you cannot have deal v remain as there is no deal
    > > > >
    > > > > Why do the Remainers get another go?
    > > >
    > > > I do not think they should to be fair
    > >
    > > We need a route out of the cul de sac he Leavers have taken us down. They have had their chance time and time again to Brexit, it have flunked it, By their own actions they have revived Remain as a viable way out.
    >
    > Not at all sure that it would not result in a 50 50 vote

    That would underline the need for some compromise and that would be a good thing. We need to clip he wings if he ideological hard Brexiteers.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    JackW said:

    Meanwhile .... In a celestial world far, far away a certain @MarkSenior dressed in a bright yellow punk outfit strums his harp and screeches :



    "Never Mind The Bollocks, Here's The Liberal Democrats."

    It would have been a nice touch if one of the site moderators had logged into Mark Seniors account and ‘liked’ that comment
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    > @HYUFD said:
    > https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1132773959261478913?s=20

    We must pray that it doesn't, and it loses its grip on most of the North.
  • ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    > @Black_Rook said:
    > > @DavidL said:
    > > I mean I know no one (not even remainers) really cares but does anyone have a good summary of how the rest of the EU voted last night? I thought that the BBC coverage was incredibly parochial given the nature of the election.
    >
    > Think headlines are:
    >
    > No far-right surge (they did well in some countries, went backwards in others)
    >
    > Centre-right and centre-left groupings lose their combined majority in the Parliament
    >
    > The liberal and non-Marxist Green groups did well, and should have a greater say now that the aforementioned grand coalition requires their support
    >
    > Overall increase in turnout across EU
    >
    > Brexit Party and German CDU now the two largest national party delegations
    >
    > Socialists won in Spain; far-right Vox did poorly
    >
    > Lega Nord were top party in Italy
    >
    > Le Pen's party won a plurality in France, but only just ahead of Macron's
    >
    > Record vote shares for Sweden Democrats, and Law and Justice in Poland
    >
    > Orban's party wins absolutely majority of all votes cast in Hungary
    >
    > Collapse of far-right in Denmark, attributed (according to your bias) to Danes rejecting their manifest awfulness, or the ruling centre-left adopting their immigration policies

    Denmark: also, two new parties, even madder than dansk folkeparti, split the DF vote.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,105
    Do Labour still want a GE first because they think it'll be really easy for them to come up with a manifesto that somehow addresses the problems they've seen in their election results?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,107
    > @ah009 said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1132920728108654600
    >
    > Some people will object to this but it's shrewd imo. This is the only election BXP will ever fight without a current or part policy platform. They're going to have to come up with some policies and next time there's a national vote they can actually get some proper scrutiny that isn't about their funding or Farage's weird history.
    > BXP will be revealed to be an unstable coalition of far-right illiberals, misguided globalisers, nativists, anti-establishment types, Country Lifers, disaster capitalists, libertarians, and baldy immigrant baiters.
    >
    > The only hope of keeping them together is to say absolutely nothing about anything other than Brexit. Because like the original leave vote, such a mix is to fissile to withstand anything other than a single policy. But failing to produce policies for a domestic election will not be tolerated by the wider public.

    -----------------

    Not sure about this. The SNP has been pretty successful at keeping a similarly disparate coalition going on a single policy. It takes a lot of discipline and they have had their bad patches too.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,904
    I think that a no deal Brexit in October now looks very likely. The Tory leadership candidates are going to swing that way and no deal seems more acceptable to the DUP than the backstop. It is a long way short of optimal but these results mean a softer Brexit is now almost impossible to deliver. Even those Tories who favour remain are going to recognise that a failure to deliver Brexit means oblivion.

    Hopefully, once we have left, we can repair some of the short term damage with bilateral agreements with the EU fairly quickly. But we had a chance to compromise and we blew it. I don't see that chance coming again.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,159

    If Labour want a referendum they have to back the deal to get an amended referendum vote through, right?

    Be ironic if May quit on the eve of unexpected victory.

    They have to amend some piece of legislation, otherwise there is no mechanism I believe.

    But in this case, there is a lot riding on the word 'want'. Even if they starting flashing their 2nd vote knickers a little more, I doubt Jezza and Seamus will seriously push for anything to happen.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    Scott_P said:

    Just turned on the TV to see Nigel Fucking Farage. Not what I needed this morning.

    Anyway, he says they will stand 650 candidates at a GE, which surely means they will split the vote with Brexiteer Tories and let in swathes of Lib Dems in otherwise unwinnable seats?

    Surprised that failure has the nerve to show his face after last nights humiliation.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000
    HYUFD said:

    Boris Johnson says the Tories are on 'a final warning' if they do not deliver Brexit and Jeremy Hunt says they face 'an existential crisis' as the party saw its lowest national share of the vote since pre 1832 last night



    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48418524

    Delivering Brexit is no longer in their hands.

    Which is the bigger gamble, referendum or GE?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 9,565
    edited May 2019
    > @HYUFD said:
    > https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1132773959261478913?s=20

    <How does Labour solve this?>

    By being honest. Brexit sucks. The Party has to stand up and say so, clearly. Why wouldn't they? It's the poor, working-class voters who will be hit first, and hardest.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,107
    > @DavidL said:
    > I think that a no deal Brexit in October now looks very likely. The Tory leadership candidates are going to swing that way and no deal seems more acceptable to the DUP than the backstop. It is a long way short of optimal but these results mean a softer Brexit is now almost impossible to deliver. Even those Tories who favour remain are going to recognise that a failure to deliver Brexit means oblivion.
    >
    > Hopefully, once we have left, we can repair some of the short term damage with bilateral agreements with the EU fairly quickly. But we had a chance to compromise and we blew it. I don't see that chance coming again.

    ---------

    I think No Deal is quite likely. They have tried everything else. It's the last gasp of a failing policy.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,904
    > @Black_Rook said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1132773959261478913?s=20
    >
    > We must pray that it doesn't, and it loses its grip on most of the North.

    Well yes, but surely north London is the last bastion? Is it too going to fall?
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    > @numbertwelve said:
    > > @anothernick said:
    > > My takeaways from the results:
    > >
    > > 1 Remain parties clearly ahead of Leave parties and if you add Labour to remain and the Tories to leave (yes I know the caveats) then remain even further ahead.
    > >
    > > 2 Labour will now move to a remain and reform position, if the leadership do not move then their hand will be forced by the party conference, but I think they will move.
    > >
    > > 3 There is no majority for a no deal exit, if a new Tory PM tries to leave without a deal Tory rebels will be able to say they have the public on their side when they act to prevent it and winning a general election or referendum for a no deal exit looks a very tall order.
    > >
    > > 4 So the possibility of a no deal exit has been diminished by yesterday's results. And if the choice is now no deal or no Brexit then no Brexit looks more likely than ever.
    >
    > I am not so confident that this takes no deal off the table. If anything I think it makes it much more likely.
    Your forgetting about the stay at home party who couldn’t be arsed to vote last Thursday but will vote in referendum if they are told nanny knows best again . Leave will win , the silent majority will speak when they have to ,
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,217
    DavidL said:

    I think that a no deal Brexit in October now looks very likely. The Tory leadership candidates are going to swing that way and no deal seems more acceptable to the DUP than the backstop. It is a long way short of optimal but these results mean a softer Brexit is now almost impossible to deliver. Even those Tories who favour remain are going to recognise that a failure to deliver Brexit means oblivion.



    Hopefully, once we have left, we can repair some of the short term damage with bilateral agreements with the EU fairly quickly. But we had a chance to compromise and we blew it. I don't see that chance coming again.

    There will be a GE first if no-deal looks likely.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,091
    The currency markets don't seem to know what to make of it. The £ lifted a little first thing, but quickly settled back
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,042
    > @Peter_the_Punter said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1132773959261478913?s=20
    >
    > <How does Labour solve this?>
    >
    > By being honest. Brexit sucks. The Party has to stand up and say so, clearly. Why wouldn't they? It's the poor, working-class voters who will be hit first, and hardest.

    Given that FPTP will focus minds on how to kick the Tories out, there are enough anti Brexit votes to push Labour over the line if it took a clear position.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,904
    > @ah009 said:
    > > @Black_Rook said:
    > > > @DavidL said:
    > > > I mean I know no one (not even remainers) really cares but does anyone have a good summary of how the rest of the EU voted last night? I thought that the BBC coverage was incredibly parochial given the nature of the election.
    > >
    > > Think headlines are:
    > >
    > > No far-right surge (they did well in some countries, went backwards in others)
    > >
    > > Centre-right and centre-left groupings lose their combined majority in the Parliament
    > >
    > > The liberal and non-Marxist Green groups did well, and should have a greater say now that the aforementioned grand coalition requires their support
    > >
    > > Overall increase in turnout across EU
    > >
    > > Brexit Party and German CDU now the two largest national party delegations
    > >
    > > Socialists won in Spain; far-right Vox did poorly
    > >
    > > Lega Nord were top party in Italy
    > >
    > > Le Pen's party won a plurality in France, but only just ahead of Macron's
    > >
    > > Record vote shares for Sweden Democrats, and Law and Justice in Poland
    > >
    > > Orban's party wins absolutely majority of all votes cast in Hungary
    > >
    > > Collapse of far-right in Denmark, attributed (according to your bias) to Danes rejecting their manifest awfulness, or the ruling centre-left adopting their immigration policies
    >
    > Denmark: also, two new parties, even madder than dansk folkeparti, split the DF vote.

    If the UK does leave am I right in thinking that the EPP/Social Democrats get their majority back? If so I think we can forget any more extensions.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    DavidL said:

    I think that a no deal Brexit in October now looks very likely.

    FF43 said:

    I think No Deal is quite likely. They have tried everything else. It's the last gasp of a failing policy.

    Any Tory leader proposing no deal is going to get VONCed
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 12,500
    > @IanB2 said:
    > > @Foxy said:
    > > Just a bit of fun....if all the CUK votes were added to the LibDem tally:
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > NE: LDs +1 MEP, BXP -1
    > >
    > > Yorks: no change
    > >
    > > NW: no change
    > >
    > > W Mids: no change
    > >
    > > Wales: no change
    > >
    > > E Mids: no change
    > >
    > > SW: no change
    > >
    > > SE: LDs +1, Lab -1
    > >
    > > Lon: no change
    > >
    > > East: no change
    > >
    > > Scotland: LDs +1, Tory -1
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Revised seats: BXP 28, LD 19, Lab 9, Green 7, Con 3, SNP 3, PC 1
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > And if LibDem, CUK and Green votes are all combined:
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > NE: +1 from BXP as above (reversed if UKIP combined with BXP)
    > >
    > > Yorks: no change
    > >
    > > NW: no change
    > >
    > > W Mids: +1 from the Tories (seat goes to BXP instead with UKIP+BXP)
    > >
    > > Wales: no change
    > >
    > > E Mids: +1 from BXP (reversed if UKIP+BXP)
    > >
    > > SW: no change
    > >
    > > SE: +1 from Lab as above
    > >
    > > Lon: +1 from BXP (reversed if UKIP+BXP)
    > >
    > > East: +1 from BXP (reversed if UKIP+BXP)
    > >
    > > Scotland: +1 from Tory as above
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Revised seats: LD/Green 30, BXP 25, Lab 9, Con 2, SNP 3, PC 1
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > (or BXP/UKIP 30, LD/Green 25, Lab 9, Con 2, SNP 3, PC 1)
    > >
    > > Interesting, an Alliance would not have helped much under Dehondt.
    >
    > But yes? The CUK vote tally is low and achieved nothing, yet added to the LibDem total it would deliver three extra MEPs, taking them from 16 to 19, which is a significant improvement.
    >
    > And a wider Green/LibDem Alliance would have clearly topped the poll, producing an entirely different narrative for the media - yet would have been blunted had UKIP packed up shop altogether.
    >
    > Both conclusions illustrate the damage that relatively small 'splinters' can do to the eventual seat tally.
    >

    Alternative view - CUK were so badly organised that it made the Libdems seem better than they were, but their existence and initial threat also energised LD activists and thereby increased the LD votes rather than took away LD votes.

    (Not saying this is my overall view, would have preferred a remain alliance, but it is not as simple as adding different parties votes together).
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,541
    So a 12% win for the Brexit Party actually means the country is now REMAIN and we should have a second referendum??? :D
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    > @DavidL said:
    > > @Black_Rook said:
    > > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1132773959261478913?s=20
    > >
    > > We must pray that it doesn't, and it loses its grip on most of the North.
    >
    > Well yes, but surely north London is the last bastion? Is it too going to fall?

    If they swing hard to Remain then I think their metropolitan vote comes back, but hopefully this allows the right (Tories, Brexit, or both, depending on the circumstances) to steal seats from them everywhere else.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,668
    HYUFD said:
    It looks in Bolsover that the swings to LD, Green and CHUK, are where Lab lost votes to, by and large. The Lab to BXP move was very modest in comparison.

    Even in heavily Leave seats there are people who share enlightened views. B)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,904
    > @Scott_P said:
    > I think that a no deal Brexit in October now looks very likely.
    >
    > I think No Deal is quite likely. They have tried everything else. It's the last gasp of a failing policy.
    >
    > Any Tory leader proposing no deal is going to get VONCed

    Anyone not proposing no deal isn't even going to get to be Tory leader in the first place.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 12,500
    > @GIN1138 said:
    > So a 12% win for the Brexit Party actually means the country is now REMAIN and we should have a second referendum??? :D

    And both sides claiming victory skewing the numbers their way, what a lovely and predictable surprise, who would have thought it?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,217
    kjohnw said:

    > @numbertwelve said:

    > > @anothernick said:

    > > My takeaways from the results:

    > >

    > > 1 Remain parties clearly ahead of Leave parties and if you add Labour to remain and the Tories to leave (yes I know the caveats) then remain even further ahead.

    > >

    > > 2 Labour will now move to a remain and reform position, if the leadership do not move then their hand will be forced by the party conference, but I think they will move.

    > >

    > > 3 There is no majority for a no deal exit, if a new Tory PM tries to leave without a deal Tory rebels will be able to say they have the public on their side when they act to prevent it and winning a general election or referendum for a no deal exit looks a very tall order.

    > >

    > > 4 So the possibility of a no deal exit has been diminished by yesterday's results. And if the choice is now no deal or no Brexit then no Brexit looks more likely than ever.

    >

    > I am not so confident that this takes no deal off the table. If anything I think it makes it much more likely.

    Your forgetting about the stay at home party who couldn’t be arsed to vote last Thursday but will vote in referendum if they are told nanny knows best again . Leave will win , the silent majority will speak when they have to ,

    GIN1138 said:

    So a 12% win for the Brexit Party actually means the country is now REMAIN and we should have a second referendum??? :D

    So a 31% vote for the Brexit party means the whole country wants an immediate no-deal Brexit?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited May 2019

    Privately I suspect Farage is feeling slightly disappointed in these results. 30% was probably the bottom end of his expectations. It's certainly a lot less than 52%.

    TBP are the largest party in the European Parliament.

    How bloody awful for them.
    Sure, they benefitted from the Remain vote being split multiple ways. Good for them. But this certainly isn't a full-on endorsement for Farage, and I think you know it.
    I'm very happy with the result :) , i'm not the one spinning it by trying to add 1+1 to make 3.

    Considering the difficulties; new party, a situation where Leavers are disproportionately likely to have abstained, a franchise that includes EU citizens, etc etc I think this is an excellent start.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,888
    edited May 2019
    > @noneoftheabove said:
    > > @IanB2 said:
    > > > @Foxy said:
    > > > Just a bit of fun....if all the CUK votes were added to the LibDem tally:
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > NE: LDs +1 MEP, BXP -1
    > > >
    > > > Yorks: no change
    > > >
    > > > NW: no change
    > > >
    > > > W Mids: no change
    > > >
    > > > Wales: no change
    > > >
    > > > E Mids: no change
    > > >
    > > > SW: no change
    > > >
    > > > SE: LDs +1, Lab -1
    > > >
    > > > Lon: no change
    > > >
    > > > East: no change
    > > >
    > > > Scotland: LDs +1, Tory -1
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > Revised seats: BXP 28, LD 19, Lab 9, Green 7, Con 3, SNP 3, PC 1
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > And if LibDem, CUK and Green votes are all combined:
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > NE: +1 from BXP as above (reversed if UKIP combined with BXP)
    > > >
    > > > Yorks: no change
    > > >
    > > > NW: no change
    > > >
    > > > W Mids: +1 from the Tories (seat goes to BXP instead with UKIP+BXP)
    > > >
    > > > Wales: no change
    > > >
    > > > E Mids: +1 from BXP (reversed if UKIP+BXP)
    > > >
    > > > SW: no change
    > > >
    > > > SE: +1 from Lab as above
    > > >
    > > > Lon: +1 from BXP (reversed if UKIP+BXP)
    > > >
    > > > East: +1 from BXP (reversed if UKIP+BXP)
    > > >
    > > > Scotland: +1 from Tory as above
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > Revised seats: LD/Green 30, BXP 25, Lab 9, Con 2, SNP 3, PC 1
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > (or BXP/UKIP 30, LD/Green 25, Lab 9, Con 2, SNP 3, PC 1)
    > > >
    > > > Interesting, an Alliance would not have helped much under Dehondt.
    > >
    > > But yes? The CUK vote tally is low and achieved nothing, yet added to the LibDem total it would deliver three extra MEPs, taking them from 16 to 19, which is a significant improvement.
    > >
    > > And a wider Green/LibDem Alliance would have clearly topped the poll, producing an entirely different narrative for the media - yet would have been blunted had UKIP packed up shop altogether.
    > >
    > > Both conclusions illustrate the damage that relatively small 'splinters' can do to the eventual seat tally.
    > >
    >
    > Alternative view - CUK were so badly organised that it made the Libdems seem better than they were, but their existence and initial threat also energised LD activists and thereby increased the LD votes rather than took away LD votes.
    >
    > (Not saying this is my overall view, would have preferred a remain alliance, but it is not as simple as adding different parties votes together).

    Deleted
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    For a party that’s only been going for five weeks the brexit party has done incredibly well to achieve most votes and seats , compare and contrast with CHUK. They will now get more brand recognition than ever and will win any no deal/remain referendum . But the tories will not accommodate a second referendum now , it would be the end for them , they have to become the brexit party to survive and enact the referendum of 2016. Imagine if Scotland had voted yes to independent and three years later it was not implemented , do you think there would have been another referendum ? I trow not.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,217
    kjohnw said:

    For a party that’s only been going for five weeks the brexit party has done incredibly well to achieve most votes and seats , compare and contrast with CHUK. They will now get more brand recognition than ever and will win any no deal/remain referendum . But the tories will not accommodate a second referendum now , it would be the end for them , they have to become the brexit party to survive and enact the referendum of 2016. Imagine if Scotland had voted yes to independent and three years later it was not implemented , do you think there would have been another referendum ? I trow not.

    If the Tories become the Brexit party it will be the end of them too, art least as a party that can be in government any time soon. They will lose 20-30 seats to the Lib Dems and all of their seats in Scotland.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited May 2019
    ...
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    HYUFD said:
    Of the five largest parties, four are eurosceptic....
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,107
    edited May 2019
    > @HYUFD said:
    > https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1132773959261478913?s=20

    ------

    Actually the Bolsover result was unusual in that there was a swing from Labour to Brexit Party. Nationally the swing was almost entirely to Remain parties. If they want to "solve" the bigger problem that's where they need focus their efforts.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 12,500
    > @DavidL said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > I think that a no deal Brexit in October now looks very likely.
    > >
    > > I think No Deal is quite likely. They have tried everything else. It's the last gasp of a failing policy.
    > >
    > > Any Tory leader proposing no deal is going to get VONCed
    >
    > Anyone not proposing no deal isn't even going to get to be Tory leader in the first place.

    Answer = Tory leader proposes no deal, fails to deliver it and goes into general election looking weak and not keeping their word. Great plan, what could go wrong?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    > @isam said:
    > Meanwhile .... In a celestial world far, far away a certain @MarkSenior dressed in a bright yellow punk outfit strums his harp and screeches :
    >
    >
    >
    > "Never Mind The Bollocks, Here's The Liberal Democrats."
    >
    > It would have been a nice touch if one of the site moderators had logged into Mark Seniors account and ‘liked’ that comment

    ............................................................................................................

    Indeed.

    Let us also not forget @Plato ,who I disagreed with on most subjects, but clearly will be digging @MarkSenior in the ribs and shouting "Bollocks To Remainers" not too softly in his ears !! .. :smiley:
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 24,887
    > @not_on_fire said:
    > Privately I suspect Farage is feeling slightly disappointed in these results. 30% was probably the bottom end of his expectations. It's certainly a lot less than 52%.

    LOL. Anyone who claims they were ever going to get 52% or that it means anything that they didn't is just being dishonest.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    Scott_P said:
    BXP are doing better than UKIP did in 2014, when they were doing well. Farage is beating that in 2019 when UKIP were dead and buried anyway, so the tweet is very dumb.

    If BXP hadn’t stood in these elections, UKIP wouldn’t have got 20% IMO let alone 31%
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,904
    > @not_on_fire said:
    > For a party that’s only been going for five weeks the brexit party has done incredibly well to achieve most votes and seats , compare and contrast with CHUK. They will now get more brand recognition than ever and will win any no deal/remain referendum . But the tories will not accommodate a second referendum now , it would be the end for them , they have to become the brexit party to survive and enact the referendum of 2016. Imagine if Scotland had voted yes to independent and three years later it was not implemented , do you think there would have been another referendum ? I trow not.
    >
    > If the Tories become the Brexit party it will be the end of them too, art least as a party that can be in government any time soon. They will lose 20-30 seats to the Lib Dems and all of their seats in Scotland.

    It depends on whether that is still the issue. If we have Brexited and the sky has not fallen things might look very different. It seems their only hope to me.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000
    DavidL said:

    I think that a no deal Brexit in October now looks very likely. The Tory leadership candidates are going to swing that way and no deal seems more acceptable to the DUP than the backstop. It is a long way short of optimal but these results mean a softer Brexit is now almost impossible to deliver. Even those Tories who favour remain are going to recognise that a failure to deliver Brexit means oblivion.



    Hopefully, once we have left, we can repair some of the short term damage with bilateral agreements with the EU fairly quickly. But we had a chance to compromise and we blew it. I don't see that chance coming again.

    Agreed. It's not like any deal could be put to parliament now as May dies not have authority to do so. Extremists won some time ago
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,217
    edited May 2019

    > @not_on_fire said:

    > Privately I suspect Farage is feeling slightly disappointed in these results. 30% was probably the bottom end of his expectations. It's certainly a lot less than 52%.



    LOL. Anyone who claims they were ever going to get 52% or that it means anything that they didn't is just being dishonest.

    Why is it unreasonable to expect a single-issue party campaigning in favour of an outcome - which we are repeatedly told a majority of the country want - to score 50% + ? The only possible interpretation is that actually it's not that popular.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,659
    What the hell are the EU Brexit negotiators in Brussels thinking this morning?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,107
    The Brexit Party have unquestionably done well. They are the voice of one third of the electorate.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 15,393
    Let's assume the Tories select a no dealer in response to yesterday's result. Let's further assume that parliament recoil in horror at the prospect. MPs otherwise loathe to trigger a General Election - considering their own personal likely defeat - may do so when it's clear that an election is the only way to possibly avoid no deal.

    The parliamentary timetable focuses minds. An election before 31st October can only be on 3 dates: 17th, 24th or 31st October. I cannot see the new Tory leader being permitted to ask for an extension, so the end of October it is.

    Question - if the 80% or so of the remaining Tory party is clearly saying vote for me and we'll no deal on Halloween, would there be any point in their voters staying with Farage? Would Tory voters trust a Boris to actually deliver, or would they want a pure Brexiteer MP instead? Would Farage's ego allow him not to run a full slate?

    What I am saying is that I can see a way for the Conservatives to win an October election. I cannot see a way for Corbyn-led Labour to win an October election
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,217

    What the hell are the EU Brexit negotiators in Brussels thinking this morning?

    Book a long holiday until October
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 2,569
    > @not_on_fire said:
    > > @numbertwelve said:
    >
    > > > @anothernick said:
    >
    > > > My takeaways from the results:
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > 1 Remain parties clearly ahead of Leave parties and if you add Labour to remain and the Tories to leave (yes I know the caveats) then remain even further ahead.
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > 2 Labour will now move to a remain and reform position, if the leadership do not move then their hand will be forced by the party conference, but I think they will move.
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > 3 There is no majority for a no deal exit, if a new Tory PM tries to leave without a deal Tory rebels will be able to say they have the public on their side when they act to prevent it and winning a general election or referendum for a no deal exit looks a very tall order.
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > 4 So the possibility of a no deal exit has been diminished by yesterday's results. And if the choice is now no deal or no Brexit then no Brexit looks more likely than ever.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > I am not so confident that this takes no deal off the table. If anything I think it makes it much more likely.
    >
    > Your forgetting about the stay at home party who couldn’t be arsed to vote last Thursday but will vote in referendum if they are told nanny knows best again . Leave will win , the silent majority will speak when they have to ,
    >
    > So a 12% win for the Brexit Party actually means the country is now REMAIN and we should have a second referendum??? :D
    >
    > So a 31% vote for the Brexit party means the whole country wants an immediate no-deal Brexit?

    31% is more than half of 52% so that is the majority Leave view.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,217
    FF43 said:

    The Brexit Party have unquestionably done well. They are the voice of one third of the electorate.


    The anti-Brexit party have done even better. They are the voice of two-thirds of the electorate.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 15,225
    > @IanB2 said:
    > > @Foxy said:
    > > Just a bit of fun....if all the CUK votes were added to the LibDem tally:
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > NE: LDs +1 MEP, BXP -1
    > >
    > > Yorks: no change
    > >
    > > NW: no change
    > >
    > > W Mids: no change
    > >
    > > Wales: no change
    > >
    > > E Mids: no change
    > >
    > > SW: no change
    > >
    > > SE: LDs +1, Lab -1
    > >
    > > Lon: no change
    > >
    > > East: no change
    > >
    > > Scotland: LDs +1, Tory -1
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Revised seats: BXP 28, LD 19, Lab 9, Green 7, Con 3, SNP 3, PC 1
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > And if LibDem, CUK and Green votes are all combined:
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > NE: +1 from BXP as above (reversed if UKIP combined with BXP)
    > >
    > > Yorks: no change
    > >
    > > NW: no change
    > >
    > > W Mids: +1 from the Tories (seat goes to BXP instead with UKIP+BXP)
    > >
    > > Wales: no change
    > >
    > > E Mids: +1 from BXP (reversed if UKIP+BXP)
    > >
    > > SW: no change
    > >
    > > SE: +1 from Lab as above
    > >
    > > Lon: +1 from BXP (reversed if UKIP+BXP)
    > >
    > > East: +1 from BXP (reversed if UKIP+BXP)
    > >
    > > Scotland: +1 from Tory as above
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Revised seats: LD/Green 30, BXP 25, Lab 9, Con 2, SNP 3, PC 1
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > (or BXP/UKIP 30, LD/Green 25, Lab 9, Con 2, SNP 3, PC 1)
    > >
    > > Interesting, an Alliance would not have helped much under Dehondt.
    >
    > But yes? The CUK vote tally is low and achieved nothing, yet added to the LibDem total it would deliver three extra MEPs, taking them from 16 to 19, which is a significant improvement.
    >
    > And a wider Green/LibDem Alliance would have clearly topped the poll, producing an entirely different narrative for the media - yet would have been blunted had UKIP packed up shop altogether.
    >
    > Both conclusions illustrate the damage that relatively small 'splinters' can do to the eventual seat tally.
    >

    I think CHUK served a purpose beyond just their numbers. All three of the Remain parties helped give credibility to the other. What's more when the defections in parliament start to gather momentum the CHUKers are a better home than either the Greens or the Lib Dems
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000

    What the hell are the EU Brexit negotiators in Brussels thinking this morning?

    That they failed to get a deal, but their job is now over regardless
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,541
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/SebDance/status/1132926579519172608

    But TBP still beats UKIPs 2014 share of the vote... Which was a prelude to LEAVE winning the referendum two years later.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 47,497
    > @noneoftheabove said:
    > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > So a 12% win for the Brexit Party actually means the country is now REMAIN and we should have a second referendum??? :D
    >
    > And both sides claiming victory skewing the numbers their way, what a lovely and predictable surprise, who would have thought it?

    And John Curtice confirming both leave and remain can argue they won when in reality it is not at all clear and we remain deadlocked
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 12,500
    > @not_on_fire said:
    > For a party that’s only been going for five weeks the brexit party has done incredibly well to achieve most votes and seats , compare and contrast with CHUK. They will now get more brand recognition than ever and will win any no deal/remain referendum . But the tories will not accommodate a second referendum now , it would be the end for them , they have to become the brexit party to survive and enact the referendum of 2016. Imagine if Scotland had voted yes to independent and three years later it was not implemented , do you think there would have been another referendum ? I trow not.
    >
    > If the Tories become the Brexit party it will be the end of them too, art least as a party that can be in government any time soon. They will lose 20-30 seats to the Lib Dems and all of their seats in Scotland.

    Yes the Tories becoming the Brexit party does not deliver Brexit any more than choosing a we will leave by October leader means we will leave by October.

    Until politicians realise some of the cliches of politics still apply, in particular, politics is the art of the possible, the art of compromise and that counting is needed in a hung parliament, then no-one will be able to deliver anything apart from further delay and damaging division to the country.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,287
    > @FF43 said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1132773959261478913?s=20
    >
    > ------
    >
    > Actually the Bolsover result was unusual in that there was a swing from Labour to Brexit Party. Nationally the swing was almost entirely to Remain parties. If they want to "solve" the bigger problem that's where they need focus their efforts.

    Bolsover result as presented is incorrect ::


    Brexit Party 48.5%
    Labour 16.3%
    Lib Dems 9.7%
    Green 7.2% (6 votes ahead of UKIP)
    UKIP 7.2%
    Tories 5.7%
    CHUK 3.6%
    TIN 1.1%
    Rood 0.8%

    Is the actual result
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,107
    > @MarqueeMark said:
    > What the hell are the EU Brexit negotiators in Brussels thinking this morning?

    They think the British are deluded and unserious. They have dealt with that type before, including the Greeks
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    edited May 2019
    Scott_P said:
    A chronic misjudgement.

    UKIP were flying in 2014 and BXP have improved on that. BXP are bigger than Farage era UKIP at their height. Tweets like the one you quote would only carry weight if UKIP would have won these elections with 31% under their current set up had BXP not stood.
  • LordWakefieldLordWakefield Posts: 139

    > @HYUFD said:

    >









    By being honest. Brexit sucks. The Party has to stand up and say so, clearly. Why wouldn't they? It's the poor, working-class voters who will be hit first, and hardest.
    Call the voter's fascist bastards that usually works.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,987

    The most interesting thing that will come out of Scotland in the next month or two is the policy taken by Ruth Davidson. The Scottish tories kept their MEP and got more vote share than English tories but don’t expect her to be happy with this.



    A well managed brexit that gets the fish back but keeps us in a customs union with freedom of movement is the objective. A no deal Brexit that triggers an independence referendum the worst outcome.

    Her having any policy other than SNP BAD will be a change. Clueless idiot who thinks just saying NO Referendum and day job is sufficient.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000
    Scott_P said:
    If pro Pv parties are as we all know anti Brexit why not just revoke? Given they are wanting remain a Pv is just a process issue, and they would be foolish to risk Brexit happening. And given they are explicit the purpose is not to ask for our say but to remain, they would not make it binding and would fight it if we did confirm to leave.

    No deal or revoke, let's stop pretending thats not where we end up.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,091
    > @GIN1138 said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > https://twitter.com/SebDance/status/1132926579519172608
    >
    > But TBP still beats UKIPs 2014 share of the vote... Which was a prelude to LEAVE winning the referendum two years later.

    But a clear majority of the 2014 Tory voters in that year’s EU elections were leave supporters. Factor in the collapse in the Tory vote, the 2014-2019 swing is very clearly from leave to remain.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,428
    OK, the big moment has arrived.

    A few days ago I published on here my proposed model for turning the Euro results into an equivalent EU Ref2 outcome.

    There were some minor quibbles regarding the methodology and assumptions, but if you recall I made the relevant adjustments where necessary, based on the copious and intelligent feedback received, and we ended up with something that all agreed was about as good as it is possible to get.

    I have now crunched the actual numbers and below is the 'Referendum' result.

    LEAVE 50%
    REMAIN 50%

    Ladies and Gentlemen, we are stuffed.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,414
    edited May 2019
    > @numbertwelve said:
    > > @anothernick said:
    > > My takeaways from the results:
    > >
    > > 1 Remain parties clearly ahead of Leave parties and if you add Labour to remain and the Tories to leave (yes I know the caveats) then remain even further ahead.
    > >
    > > 2 Labour will now move to a remain and reform position, if the leadership do not move then their hand will be forced by the party conference, but I think they will move.
    > >
    > > 3 There is no majority for a no deal exit, if a new Tory PM tries to leave without a deal Tory rebels will be able to say they have the public on their side when they act to prevent it and winning a general election or referendum for a no deal exit looks a very tall order.
    > >
    > > 4 So the possibility of a no deal exit has been diminished by yesterday's results. And if the choice is now no deal or no Brexit then no Brexit looks more likely than ever.
    >
    > I am not so confident that this takes no deal off the table. If anything I think it makes it much more likely.

    I do not see how a PM could impose no deal against the wishes of the vast majority of MPs and the vast majority of voters. There may be a legal route to no deal but politically it looks impossible. Any government which tried it would lose a VONC in the house and it is by no means clear that a general election would result in a majority of MPs favouring no deal. Of course the EU could refuse further extensions and force the UK into no deal that way but that is not very likely IMO.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Phil Hammond obviously feels strongly about Brexit - he should stand for the leadership.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,159
    Boris:

    "Next week I will set out more of what I believe must be the winning agenda, for my party and for the country."
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 5,046
    On a personal note. My grandmother always voted in every election. So did my aunt. My father has voted at every election since he was 30. All of them always voted conservative. They weren't fanatics but they believed in voting whenever possible and they considered themselves conservatives.

    To see the party get 1.5m votes in a national election is quite shocking.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,668

    What the hell are the EU Brexit negotiators in Brussels thinking this morning?

    Book a long holiday until October
    They have that anyway. A condition of the extension was that negotiations over the WA were over, though the PD could have minor ammendments.

    There simply are no negotiations for the Brexiteers to restart, and post No Deal the same three issues will be on the table, including the Irish border.

    I am sanguine about No Deal/ No Plan Brexit. It is the shortest route to the discrediting of the Brexiteers and counter revolution.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000
    Foxy said:

    What the hell are the EU Brexit negotiators in Brussels thinking this morning?

    Book a long holiday until October
    They have that anyway. A condition of the extension was that negotiations over the WA were over, though the PD could have minor ammendments.

    There simply are no negotiations for the Brexiteers to restart, and post No Deal the same three issues will be on the table, including the Irish border.

    I am sanguine about No Deal/ No Plan Brexit. It is the shortest route to the discrediting of the Brexiteers and counter revolution.
    Most remainers disagree given how hard they have fought to have even BINO. The psychological effect of leaving at all is clearly worrisome.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,105
    We might as well just fast forward and get on with the business of organising a No Deal vs. Revoke referendum.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,659
    > @FF43 said:
    > The Brexit Party have unquestionably done well. They are the voice of one third of the electorate.

    And that's really the way to beat the Brexit Party.... Raise the dead on the electoral roll to your cause.

    You are the Night King and I claim my five souls.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 12,500
    > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > @Jonathan said:
    > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > > > @Charles said:
    > > > > > @JonWC said:
    > > > >
    > > > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
    > > > >
    > > > > > > > @JonWC said:
    > > > >
    > > > > > > > And a final point. I'd be curious to know how second ref people are going to keep No Deal off the ballot paper given parties for whom that is virtually their only policy have got 35%. Do you feel lucky?
    > > > >
    > > > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > > > > Any referendum would have to be no deal - revoke. There is no deal to put forward
    > > > >
    > > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > > > Serious question - you think the people's vote campain and the Labour supporters who have explicitly said the opposite would dare? Genuine question to which I don't claim to know the answer.
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > > You highlight the practical difficulties of a referendum as the HOC would have to agree the choices and goodness only knows how that would be resolved though you cannot have deal v remain as there is no deal
    > > > >
    > > > > Why do the Remainers get another go?
    > > >
    > > > I do not think they should to be fair
    > >
    > > We need a route out of the cul de sac he Leavers have taken us down. They have had their chance time and time again to Brexit, it have flunked it, By their own actions they have revived Remain as a viable way out.
    >
    > The cul-de-sac has been made by not by Leavers, but by those 400+ MPs elected on a manifesto to implement Brexit - but refusing to do so.

    Brexit was likely destroyed by the ERG on 10 December.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,159
    Scott_P said:
    Jim Callaghan in 1970: the referendum idea was “a little rubber life raft into which the whole party may one day have to climb”.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,987
    FF43 said:

    > @hamiltonace said:

    > The most interesting thing that will come out of Scotland in the next month or two is the policy taken by Ruth Davidson. The Scottish tories kept their MEP and got more vote share than English tories but don’t expect her to be happy with this.

    >

    > A well managed brexit that gets the fish back but keeps us in a customs union with freedom of movement is the objective. A no deal Brexit that triggers an independence referendum the worst outcome.



    =======



    Conservatives in Scotland peeled off to the BP in roughly the same proportion to those in England - to my surprise.



    Interesting parallel with the Tory Party in England now and the Tory Party as it lost Scotland in the 1980s. Johnson, Raab and Hunt are in danger of losing their seats to the Lib Dems, but double down on the rhetoric, just as their Scottish colleagues did as they lost their seats.



    Oh and edit. The fish are a lost cause. Too many EU countries want to maintain the status quo to budge on that, even if they had warm feelings to their UK counterparts and wanted to help them out.

    Guaranteed Tories would sell Scottish fishermen down the river. Hard to understand why the idiots keep voting for them.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 47,497
    > @not_on_fire said:
    > The Brexit Party have unquestionably done well. They are the voice of one third of the electorate.
    >
    >
    > The anti-Brexit party have done even better. They are the voice of two-thirds of the electorate.

    Bit of licence there. As I have said earlier John Curtice confirmed this morning neither side can claim they have won though they may try. We are still deadlocked at 50 50
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 12,500
    > @FF43 said:
    > > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > What the hell are the EU Brexit negotiators in Brussels thinking this morning?
    >
    > They think the British are deluded and unserious. They have dealt with that type before, including the Greeks

    I expect they are thinking that there is no-one on the UK side to negotiate with who has a mandate in parliament and that there probably will not be in the next 12 months so will be planning for delay and further extension.
  • ah009ah009 Posts: 436
    > @brokenwheel said:
    > https://twitter.com/DomWalsh13/status/1132919573643177984
    >
    >
    >
    > Of the five largest parties, four are eurosceptic....

    At least one of which is also fascist
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000

    Boris:



    "Next week I will set out more of what I believe must be the winning agenda, for my party and for the country."

    Oh goody, we get to hear his faux-churchillian ramblings become party policy if he wins, most helpful.

    Most, but not all, Tories and BXPers want no deal. The country does not have a majority for that. How will Boris win the country by going unicorn then no deal I wonder?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,668
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    If pro Pv parties are as we all know anti Brexit why not just revoke? Given they are wanting remain a Pv is just a process issue, and they would be foolish to risk Brexit happening. And given they are explicit the purpose is not to ask for our say but to remain, they would not make it binding and would fight it if we did confirm to leave.

    No deal or revoke, let's stop pretending thats not where we end up.
    In the absence of another extension Revoke and No Deal are the only options.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,987
    Scott_P said:
    Yes getting more votes than next 3 parties combined, sure they will be disappointed.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,662
    Top trolling analogy seen somewhere else:

    If Remain United beats Leave FC 6-5, Leave FC doesn’t get to claim the win just because all of its five goals were scored by the same striker.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,541
    edited May 2019
    > @solarflare said:
    > We might as well just fast forward and get on with the business of organising a No Deal vs. Revoke referendum.

    Political class don't have the guts to risk putting No Deal on the ballot paper.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    2014 Remain (Lab, LD, Green, SDP, PC) 41%
    2019 Remain (LD, Green, SDP, PC) 40.4%

    2014 Leave (UKIP, BNP, AIFE) 29.1%
    2019 Leave (BXP, UKIP) 34.9%
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,107
    edited May 2019
    > @IanB2 said:
    > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > https://twitter.com/SebDance/status/1132926579519172608
    > >
    > > But TBP still beats UKIPs 2014 share of the vote... Which was a prelude to LEAVE winning the referendum two years later.
    >
    > But a clear majority of the 2014 Tory voters in that year’s EU elections were leave supporters. Factor in the collapse in the Tory vote, the 2014-2019 swing is very clearly from leave to remain.

    ---------------

    Cons + UKIP lost 40 percentage points in total; BXP gained 33% . The other 7% went to Remain parties.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 22,267
    So let me get this right.

    We were told that the LibDems would get their best result since 1910.

    Instead the LibDems got their best result since 2010.

    Only a century out.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,655
    > @anothernick said:
    > > @numbertwelve said:
    > > > @anothernick said:
    > > > My takeaways from the results:
    > > >
    > > > 1 Remain parties clearly ahead of Leave parties and if you add Labour to remain and the Tories to leave (yes I know the caveats) then remain even further ahead.
    > > >
    > > > 2 Labour will now move to a remain and reform position, if the leadership do not move then their hand will be forced by the party conference, but I think they will move.
    > > >
    > > > 3 There is no majority for a no deal exit, if a new Tory PM tries to leave without a deal Tory rebels will be able to say they have the public on their side when they act to prevent it and winning a general election or referendum for a no deal exit looks a very tall order.
    > > >
    > > > 4 So the possibility of a no deal exit has been diminished by yesterday's results. And if the choice is now no deal or no Brexit then no Brexit looks more likely than ever.
    > >
    > > I am not so confident that this takes no deal off the table. If anything I think it makes it much more likely.
    >
    > I do not see how a PM could impose no deal against the wishes of the vast majority of MPs and the vast majority of voters. There may be a legal route to no deal but politically it looks impossible. Any government which tried it would lose a VONC in the house and it is by no means clear that a general election would result in a majority of MPs favouring no deal. Of course the EU could refuse further extensions and force the UK into no deal that way but that is not very likely IMO.

    No deal is like death, or the year 2020. It doesn't require political will to make it happen. This is exactly the point Cnut was making about high tide.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 22,267
    The BBC headline is:

    BREXIT PARTY DOMINATES IN EU ELECTIONS

    Farage has won the media narrative.

    And the desperate pasting of tweets is not going to reverse that.
This discussion has been closed.