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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Frustratingly there’ll be no results or even on the day polls
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Frustratingly there’ll be no results or even on the day polls until Monday at 10pm
Those used to general elections in the UK and the drama of the exit poll coming out they might get a bit deflated to have reached 10 this evening to find the polls have closed and nothing is happening.
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Can we have tallies of different fruits and veggies, like in Spain?
The pollsters were Populus and Opinium.
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1131669660385062912
> I've done two very comprehensive on the day polls, asking me who I voted for and why.
>
> The pollsters were Populus and Opinium.
The fact that you were invited to do both of them shows how worthless they are and how much they are the preserve of the overly engaged.
> Could we use the hiatus between now and Sunday evening to get the PB.com blockquotes issue fixed?
Trouble is, we can't decide on the alternative.
Perhaps a series of indicative votes is required?
> Expectation management, or the nation's Portillo moment?
Optimizing for leadership maneuvers in the next 48 hours.
> > @Benpointer said:
>
> > Could we use the hiatus between now and Sunday evening to get the PB.com blockquotes issue fixed?
>
>
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> Trouble is, we can't decide on the alternative.
>
>
>
> Perhaps a series of indicative votes is required?
>
> I was just wanting it to Remain as it was before it was f*cked up.
But can't we do better deals with other bulletin board providers?
It's never happened before.
> Expectation management, or the nation's Portillo moment?
>
> https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1131669660385062912
Suspect this is very possible... Total wipeout for Con
> Expectation management, or the nation's Portillo moment?
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>
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> https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1131669660385062912
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>
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> If he loses his seat I'd celebrate even more than when Mark Reckless lost his seat in 2015.
I've heard eating more than one pineapple pizza in a day can be bad for you
> Expectation management, or the nation's Portillo moment?
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1131669660385062912
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>
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> If he loses his seat I'd celebrate even more than when Mark Reckless lost his seat in 2015.
What I love about you TSE is that you bear grudges.
> Expectation management, or the nation's Portillo moment?
>
> https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1131669660385062912
The Lib Dems got one seat in 2014. Surely the Cons can’t do worse than that.
Or at least one of the buggers.
Tories have played the expectation management game very well, Brexit Party less so.
Could be in for a surprise Sunday night, 2015-size. No more than a hunch, mind. Lib Dems to win it?
> https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1131670341791690754
This is wrong. There was a TV debate with Cameron and DDavis in November 2005. Amazingly Davis won
> > @Theuniondivvie said:
> > Expectation management, or the nation's Portillo moment?
> >
> > https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1131669660385062912
>
> Suspect this is very possible... Total wipeout for Con
Thanks to d'Hondt voting, it is quite hard to get no MEPs at all.
She was finished the moment that exit poll came out (as George Osborne correctly identified, much as it pains to say it)
Other than subjecting her to national humiliation virtually every day since what actually has been achieved in the past two years?
1922 should have acted the day after the election. At least her humiliation is nearly over now...
>
> This is wrong. There was a TV debate with Cameron and DDavis in November 2005. Amazingly Davis won
There was one between IDS and Clarke too.
> Mistake in thread header title says Monday at 10pm but as revealed in the piece its Sunday from 10pm.
Yes, but is it not 9PM UK time, I may have misunderstood but I think its till they stop voting on the continent and that is surly 10PM there so 9PM in UK
> https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1131672276750012416
Well Andrea Leadsom made a pretty bold move yesterday?
It just seems bizarre to announce the date on which to announce your resignation, but still not go.
> Daily Express's front page is a hostage to fortune.
>
> Tories have played the expectation management game very well, Brexit Party less so.
>
> Could be in for a surprise Sunday night, 2015-size. No more than a hunch, mind. Lib Dems to win it?
I'm sticking with YouGov... And AveIt... Brexit Party 35-40%
> How come the Netherlands have released an exit poll?
Because this regulation goes WAAAAY OTT of what was actually required by the EU.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1131672276750012416
>
> Well Andrea Leadsom made a pretty bold move yesterday?
Stat: no one has ever won a Tory leadership election having failed in a previous one.
According to the Speccie, anyway.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @Theuniondivvie said:
> > > Expectation management, or the nation's Portillo moment?
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1131669660385062912
> >
> > Suspect this is very possible... Total wipeout for Con
>
> Thanks to d'Hondt voting, it is quite hard to get no MEPs at all.
Dan Hannan will keep his seat, he might be the only one mind - but it is TOUGH for him to lose his specifically due to the no of seats in the SE region compared to anywhere else creating a low quota.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > > https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1131672276750012416
> >
> > Well Andrea Leadsom made a pretty bold move yesterday?
>
> Stat: no one has ever won a Tory leadership election having failed in a previous one.
>
> According to the Speccie, anyway.
Howard lost in 1997. Not the immediate one before? Or not an "election" as he was the only candidate?
> > @AndyJS said:
> > How come the Netherlands have released an exit poll?
>
> Because this regulation goes WAAAAY OTT of what was actually required by the EU.
Seems to be habitual with the U.K.
> If May is going to stay in office until a successor is elected why not start the race now? May would still be PM for Trump's visit.
>
> It just seems bizarre to announce the date on which to announce your resignation, but still not go.
Knowing May she'll probably tomorrow announce which day that she's going to announce the day that she's going to decide what day she's resigning on.
> Knowing May she'll probably tomorrow announce which day that she's going to announce the day that she's going to decide what day she's resigning on.
She'll announce the date, but not the year
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > Mistake in thread header title says Monday at 10pm but as revealed in the piece its Sunday from 10pm.
>
> Yes, but is it not 9PM UK time, I may have misunderstood but I think its till they stop voting on the continent and that is surly 10PM there so 9PM in UK
From what I recall reading the other day the polls in Italy are open until 11pm local time on Sunday, so 10pm here
> Netherlands is counting right now. They won't release official results until Sunday...but let's guess how long they will stay "secret" in the social media era given parties have reps at polling stations looking at the count.
Not long:
https://www.politico.eu/article/timmermans-netherlands-european-election/
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1131670341791690754
>
> This is wrong. There was a TV debate with Cameron and DDavis in November 2005. Amazingly Davis won
I remember it. I thought DC won. I didn't really know who he was beforehand.
> Netherlands is counting right now. They won't release official results until Sunday...but let's guess how long they will stay "secret" in the social media era given parties have reps at polling stations looking at the count.
Bloody typical. Are we the only country in Europe that plays by the rules?
> > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1131670341791690754
> >
> > This is wrong. There was a TV debate with Cameron and DDavis in November 2005. Amazingly Davis won
>
> I remember it. I thought DC won. I didn't really know who he was beforehand.
Right. The perception was that Davis won (Cameron 'sounded too much like Blair'!) but not by enough.
> @RobD said:
> > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > Netherlands is counting right now. They won't release official results until Sunday...but let's guess how long they will stay "secret" in the social media era given parties have reps at polling stations looking at the count.
>
> Bloody typical. Are we the only country in Europe that plays by the rules?
> > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > Netherlands is counting right now. They won't release official results until Sunday...but let's guess how long they will stay "secret" in the social media era given parties have reps at polling stations looking at the count.
>
> Bloody typical. Are we the only country in Europe that plays by the rules?
Yes.
>
> Right. The perception was that Davis won (Cameron 'sounded too much like Blair'!) but not by enough.
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In that debate David Davis said his plan to renegotiate with the EU involved a second referendum.
This point seemed not to compute with Suella. The ERG haven't quite twigged the Tories have no majority.
> May wasting even more time.
Exactly, it's stupid. 'I'm going, but you can't start your leadership pitches until 10th June so I can play being PM for two more weeks'. What a nonsense. And that's just the start! Then there has to be the leadership contest that will take weeks, all the while she's still there, the zombiest of zombie leaders.
Contrast with Cameron, who basically did a runner the morning after the ref vote.
Nothing has changed. Again.
> Hmm, I'm starting to the Labour might finish 4th nationally behind the Tories in 3rd.
What about the Greens?
Brexit will split very heavily for Con rather than Lab - so even if Brexit got around 10% Con would be well ahead of Lab.
As for Boris, he will surely tack to the Centre if elected - he won't want the economy to be damaged any more than anyone else and I suspect he couldn't care less about Brexit.
It will just be a question of cobbling something together that passes as reasonable and that he can get through.
My partner worked a stint as polling clerk in Hyndland in the west end of Glasgow, 52% turnout in that station which is pretty huge for the Euros. Hyndland would tend to be part of Glasgow's remain central.
So in conclusion not much to conclude on turnout either way
Has she one last can kicking left in her?
Turnout at my polling station was well below that of a local election at 9pm so it might be that they again underperfom in a Euro election. Not sure who would benift most from this, Greens, Lib Dems or Labour.
https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/05/23/22/13882110-7064685-image-a-48_1558646904249.jpg
New Hard Brexit Tory leader triggers the FTPA and calls a general election with the election date set after 31 Oct.
As such we cannot avoid a hard Brexit.
The election becomes all about who gets to negotiate the future relationship from a fait-accompli WTO position.
Farage's gang stands in Remainer held seats and becomes a minor coalition partner to the Tories is a Leave majority parliament running a WTO Britain,
New Con leader won't be elected by then - so would mean she stays on for two weeks and then hands over to Lidington for approx six weeks before new leader takes over.
Surely that can't be right - would be a total mess.