politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories should take some consolation from Newport West – th
Comments
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8% was enough for Nick Griffin, but only just.dyedwoolie said:
Hes gonna need about 10% against 7 competitors........ surely the EDL types aren't a 10% presence??kinabalu said:Tommy Robinson 6/4 to be elected as an MEP? That's a 2 in 5 chance. OMG.
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Was it a complete contradiction? He just restated the Labour conference motion, which everyone knows is waffle that can mean anything to anyone: he said he wanted a magic Brexit deal which keeps all the benefits of the EU, and that if that's not possible he wants a referendum. The only thing he left out on this occasion was that he doesn't think such a Brexit deal will ever be possible, so therefore a referendum will be the only thing left "on the table" from his POV.AlastairMeeks said:
Of course. But the statement he put out was a complete contradiction of everything he had previously stood for.Danny565 said:
It was well-known that Adonis was an enthusiastic cheerleader for Remain when the NEC selected him, but there's a difference between that and haughtily telling all Leave voters that their votes were not wanted, Hillary Clinton-style.AlastairMeeks said:
What I can't understand is why Lord Adonis agreed to that ridiculous statement. He should have stood his ground - they knew his views when he was selected as an MEP candidate. He would have done far better to stick to his principles even if he was deselected.dyedwoolie said:Labours leaflet silliness has the potential to badly affect their euro vote. I'm increasingly of the opinion both the big two will be in the teens. Brexit to win imo on ca 25%, change, ld and green to be in the 7 to 11 range
Though I agree it's strange he was so bothered about not being deselected, since he's unlikely to get elected anyway.0 -
One would hope not. But I suppose he's picked a part of the country where he at least thinks they might be.dyedwoolie said:Hes gonna need about 10% against 7 competitors........ surely the EDL types aren't a 10% presence??
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I think they will save that bullet for the Big One.Mysticrose said:If on Tuesday Labour come out decisively for a people's vote that will see them top the poll.
Er, I think.0 -
Why has their polling only declined all year, even as they've gone in an ever-more Remainy direction (including sort-of supporting a referendum), then?Mysticrose said:If on Tuesday Labour come out decisively for a people's vote that will see them top the poll.
Er, I think.0 -
People are definitely laughing at Andrew Adonis now in fairnessScott_P said:0 -
True true but I guess you're aiming for 10% to be confident of a good chance, 8% relies on a certain spreadSean_F said:
8% was enough for Nick Griffin, but only just.dyedwoolie said:
Hes gonna need about 10% against 7 competitors........ surely the EDL types aren't a 10% presence??kinabalu said:Tommy Robinson 6/4 to be elected as an MEP? That's a 2 in 5 chance. OMG.
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In London maybe. In the Midlands and NW, not so much.Mysticrose said:If on Tuesday Labour come out decisively for a people's vote that will see them top the poll.
Er, I think.0 -
If they share your view that a pivot to Ref2 would cost rather than gain them seats then they will never do it.Danny565 said:Why has their polling only declined all year, even as they've gone in an ever-more Remainy direction (including sort-of supporting a referendum), then?
It's all about that.
My view is that it would produce a net gain and therefore they WILL do it - but only in the event of a general.0 -
LOL I will buy enough of them to be able to form a Testudo.MarqueeMark said:
Assume you'll be getting the armoured version?TOPPING said:
I am planning to take Mike's advice and get a Xiao Mi Pocofone. Direct links to 八一大楼.TheScreamingEagles said:Samsung are running scared.
iFixit has decided to pull its revealing Samsung Galaxy Fold teardown. The decision is said to have been made after Samsung indirectly requested its removal from the website, which published the teardown on Wednesday.
https://www.macrumors.com/2019/04/26/ifixit-pulls-galaxy-fold-teardown-samsungs-request/
Edit: apologies for using the Chinese language the translation is Ba Yi Da Lou.0 -
On balance, it would benefit them in this election, as they would draw votes from Lib Dems, Change, and the Greens, but for the same reason, would cost the Remain side MEP;'s as the latter were pushed below the regional thresholds.Mysticrose said:If on Tuesday Labour come out decisively for a people's vote that will see them top the poll.
Er, I think.
It might also cost Labour in the local elections in Leave-voting areas.0 -
That's a bit of a simplistic statement. First, their polling level is a little more complex than you're suggesting and, second, tacking on the Remain issue to their share ignores lots of other factors, including but not confined to: Corbyn, anti-semitism, Salisbury, Syria and then the recent legitimisation of Corbyn by the PM. I think we should remember that Labour voters are far less inclined to alter their vote because of Brexit or the EU than the Right. Look at the last GE when it was assumed Labour would be hammered, that Labour Leavers would continue to vote against the party. They didn't at all. They returned to the fold.Danny565 said:
Why has their polling only declined all year, even as they've gone in an ever-more Remainy direction (including sort-of supporting a referendum), then?Mysticrose said:If on Tuesday Labour come out decisively for a people's vote that will see them top the poll.
Er, I think.
Over the last two years since the General Election there's no evidence that Labour's share has fallen and recent evidence would hint at an upturn.
https://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2
They're polling around 2% lower than a year ago but around 5% higher than two years ago. Roughly.0 -
On the SOPN he is listed as Tommy Robinson.TheScreamingEagles said:
I don’t think it’ll happen.Theuniondivvie said:
How will his name appear on the ballot paper?
If it is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon then that’s going to cost him.
I don't expect he'll get elected anyway though.
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As third named UKIP candidate, Steven Woolfe was returned with 9.15% of the regional vote in the NW last time out.Sandpit said:
Ah okay, that explains why he wasn’t on the UKIP list. There’s 8 seats in the NW, are more than 12.5% really going to vote for him by name, in preference to any party?TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, in the North West as an Indy.Sandpit said:
Is Tommy Robinson actually standing?TheScreamingEagles said:
Was rather hoping that we’d avoid his name being involved with the elections.0 -
Well it does seem like they will have to step up a notch of capability to merit a footnote in political history, but that's more for other reasons than because some individuals are upset.anothernick said:
Certainly but I have had extensive dealings with the office of one of the leading TIGs and I have to say they were the most arrogant, insensitive and high-handed bunch I have ever had the misfortune to encounter. Quite unable to understand that not everyone believed that the sun shone out of their boss's nether regions and impervious to any criticism or suggestion from those outside the charmed circle (most of whom had no experience of politics outside the Palace of Westminster). Those people probably wrote the paper dissing the Lib Dems, they will never be able to form a broad-based political party.OblitusSumMe said:
The people prepared to quit the established parties for a new party have self-selected to be a group of people with little tolerance or patience for reality falling short of perfection.brokenwheel said:Trouble at t’ mill for the TIG/CUK/RA/whatever
Founder of their activist network quits;
https://www.twitter.com/thetimes/status/1121702969391689728
Some level of discord would seem to be inevitable.0 -
Need some travel advice.
I have three options to get to Barcelona, which airline should I fly with?
i) EasyJet
ii) Ryanair
iii) Jet20 -
Thanks.brokenwheel said:
On the SOPN he is listed as Tommy Robinson.TheScreamingEagles said:
I don’t think it’ll happen.Theuniondivvie said:
How will his name appear on the ballot paper?
If it is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon then that’s going to cost him.
I don't expect he'll get elected anyway though.0 -
Practical options. When the Conservatives polled 40%, if you opposed them there was only one show in town (outside Scotland).Danny565 said:
Why has their polling only declined all year, even as they've gone in an ever-more Remainy direction (including sort-of supporting a referendum), then?Mysticrose said:If on Tuesday Labour come out decisively for a people's vote that will see them top the poll.
Er, I think.
When the Conservatives poll 25%, if you aren't too thrilled about Labour then you can consider other places to mark your X. This is true whether you're a Leaver who might vote Brexit or a Remainer who might vote Lib Dem or TIG - or if your reason for switching is entirely unconnected to Brexit.0 -
KLM via Amsterdam if at all possible.TheScreamingEagles said:Need some travel advice.
I have three options to get to Barcelona, which airline should I fly with?
i) EasyJet
ii) Ryanair
iii) Jet20 -
Easyjet.TheScreamingEagles said:Need some travel advice.
I have three options to get to Barcelona, which airline should I fly with?
i) EasyJet
ii) Ryanair
iii) Jet20 -
iv) BATheScreamingEagles said:Need some travel advice.
I have three options to get to Barcelona, which airline should I fly with?
i) EasyJet
ii) Ryanair
iii) Jet2
v) KLM
vi) Iberia
(Of your three, Easy).0 -
Any other than Ryanair , jet2 are okTheScreamingEagles said:Need some travel advice.
I have three options to get to Barcelona, which airline should I fly with?
i) EasyJet
ii) Ryanair
iii) Jet20 -
Are they direct?Sandpit said:
iv) BATheScreamingEagles said:Need some travel advice.
I have three options to get to Barcelona, which airline should I fly with?
i) EasyJet
ii) Ryanair
iii) Jet2
v) KLM0 -
Having read the issue, it seems an incredibly bad design choice by Samsung. But at least they're pushing the tech, unlike Apple.TheScreamingEagles said:Samsung are running scared.
iFixit has decided to pull its revealing Samsung Galaxy Fold teardown. The decision is said to have been made after Samsung indirectly requested its removal from the website, which published the teardown on Wednesday.
https://www.macrumors.com/2019/04/26/ifixit-pulls-galaxy-fold-teardown-samsungs-request/
Oh, and it might not be quite the right day for an Apple fanboi to be laughing about this:
"Apple recalls plugs in UK, Hong Kong and Singapore"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-480654220 -
(Beaten to it)0
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I'm just hoping that Shadsy is going on the tried & tested 'England fans will back the lads at any price' strategy.TheScreamingEagles said:
I don’t think it’ll happen.Theuniondivvie said:
How will his name appear on the ballot paper?
If it is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon then that’s going to cost him.
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iirc BNP did well in NW in previous EU contests.kinabalu said:
One would hope not. But I suppose he's picked a part of the country where he at least thinks they might be.dyedwoolie said:Hes gonna need about 10% against 7 competitors........ surely the EDL types aren't a 10% presence??
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BA are from LHR.TheScreamingEagles said:
Are they direct?Sandpit said:
iv) BATheScreamingEagles said:Need some travel advice.
I have three options to get to Barcelona, which airline should I fly with?
i) EasyJet
ii) Ryanair
iii) Jet2
v) KLM0 -
And no change since it was last asked....TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah that non standard question generally produces larger leads for Unionists.CarlottaVance said:SINDYREF2 nailed on then.....
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1121553219828813830
Still if we get Indyref2 the UK government knows that question should be on the ballot papers.
https://twitter.com/WhatScotsThink/status/11216447790606213150 -
BA. Terminal 5 is fab and for all the criticism BA still do a good job.
Failing that, Easyjet are okay.0 -
Hold on, Jan rostowski evens for a seat? Second choice change UK in London, surely that's ridiculously short?0
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That would be a misleading question because it wrongly implies that the UK is a voluntary union of separate states.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah that non standard question generally produces larger leads for Unionists.CarlottaVance said:SINDYREF2 nailed on then.....
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1121553219828813830
Still if we get Indyref2 the UK government knows that question should be on the ballot papers.0 -
Cheers. BA and I aren’t really friends.Sandpit said:
BA are from LHR.TheScreamingEagles said:
Are they direct?Sandpit said:
iv) BATheScreamingEagles said:Need some travel advice.
I have three options to get to Barcelona, which airline should I fly with?
i) EasyJet
ii) Ryanair
iii) Jet2
v) KLM0 -
Well the Scots voted for it in 2014.williamglenn said:
That would be a misleading question because it wrongly implies that the UK is a voluntary union of separate states.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah that non standard question generally produces larger leads for Unionists.CarlottaVance said:SINDYREF2 nailed on then.....
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1121553219828813830
Still if we get Indyref2 the UK government knows that question should be on the ballot papers.0 -
The vote will surely be even more spread this time. If he can finish ahead of two or three out of Greens/Lib Dems/Change UK/UKIP then he has a good chance.dyedwoolie said:
True true but I guess you're aiming for 10% to be confident of a good chance, 8% relies on a certain spreadSean_F said:
8% was enough for Nick Griffin, but only just.dyedwoolie said:
Hes gonna need about 10% against 7 competitors........ surely the EDL types aren't a 10% presence??kinabalu said:Tommy Robinson 6/4 to be elected as an MEP? That's a 2 in 5 chance. OMG.
Probably stuffs UKIP in that region.0 -
Those plugs have been in circulation for a decade, it is merely a precaution.JosiasJessop said:
Having read the issue, it seems an incredibly bad design choice by Samsung. But at least they're pushing the tech, unlike Apple.TheScreamingEagles said:Samsung are running scared.
iFixit has decided to pull its revealing Samsung Galaxy Fold teardown. The decision is said to have been made after Samsung indirectly requested its removal from the website, which published the teardown on Wednesday.
https://www.macrumors.com/2019/04/26/ifixit-pulls-galaxy-fold-teardown-samsungs-request/
Oh, and it might not be quite the right day for an Apple fanboi to be laughing about this:
"Apple recalls plugs in UK, Hong Kong and Singapore"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-480654220 -
Might make a difference to region winner and extra seat too, he will attract support away from Brexit and the anti establishment voteOblitusSumMe said:
The vote will surely be even more spread this time. If he can finish ahead of two or three out of Greens/Lib Dems/Change UK/UKIP then he has a good chance.dyedwoolie said:
True true but I guess you're aiming for 10% to be confident of a good chance, 8% relies on a certain spreadSean_F said:
8% was enough for Nick Griffin, but only just.dyedwoolie said:
Hes gonna need about 10% against 7 competitors........ surely the EDL types aren't a 10% presence??kinabalu said:Tommy Robinson 6/4 to be elected as an MEP? That's a 2 in 5 chance. OMG.
Probably stuffs UKIP in that region.0 -
I wonder if Labour can continue their Schroedingers Brexit much longer. It seems like it should matter when they finally decide, but politics is screwy at the moment and they have a strong brand and coreMysticrose said:If on Tuesday Labour come out decisively for a people's vote that will see them top the poll.
Er, I think.0 -
I wonder if Ladbrokes voided or paid out on the 'fastest in first practice' market. Not bothered, I didn't back anything and can see arguments either side, but just curious.0
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Hmm. "Six incidents have been reported, Apple said."TheScreamingEagles said:
Those plugs have been in circulation for a decade, it is merely a precaution.JosiasJessop said:
Having read the issue, it seems an incredibly bad design choice by Samsung. But at least they're pushing the tech, unlike Apple.TheScreamingEagles said:Samsung are running scared.
iFixit has decided to pull its revealing Samsung Galaxy Fold teardown. The decision is said to have been made after Samsung indirectly requested its removal from the website, which published the teardown on Wednesday.
https://www.macrumors.com/2019/04/26/ifixit-pulls-galaxy-fold-teardown-samsungs-request/
Oh, and it might not be quite the right day for an Apple fanboi to be laughing about this:
"Apple recalls plugs in UK, Hong Kong and Singapore"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-48065422
That's six incidents where the plugs fail and users are at a risk of an electric shock. Yet you laugh at Samsung ...0 -
Shame there’s only one side of the bet being offered here.dyedwoolie said:Hold on, Jan rostowski evens for a seat? Second choice change UK in London, surely that's ridiculously short?
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Conservatives are 119-1 to win the Euros on Betfair.Sean_F said:
It's not even impossible that the Conservatives will top the poll. YouGov have the gap at only 6% between first and third.TheScreamingEagles said:
That’s why I’m voting Tory in the Euros.OblitusSumMe said:
If you are in favour of a negotiated Brexit who else would you vote for?AlastairMeeks said:On topic, it will be a good test of the extent of bovine loyalty to the Conservative party. It's hard to identify a single reason to vote for the Conservatives in the EU elections no matter what your political perspective. So we shall get to see the pure and inalienable Conservative vote.
Surely the Conservative vote is a proxy for support for May's Deal?
I think I'll follow the polls closely, and vote for the party that is best placed to beat Labour.
I certainly wouldn't expect them to win but that does seem a very high price.
Brexit 1.57
Labour 2.9
Change UK 80
Conservative 1200 -
Out of several million in issue.JosiasJessop said:
Hmm. "Six incidents have been reported, Apple said."TheScreamingEagles said:
Those plugs have been in circulation for a decade, it is merely a precaution.JosiasJessop said:
Having read the issue, it seems an incredibly bad design choice by Samsung. But at least they're pushing the tech, unlike Apple.TheScreamingEagles said:Samsung are running scared.
iFixit has decided to pull its revealing Samsung Galaxy Fold teardown. The decision is said to have been made after Samsung indirectly requested its removal from the website, which published the teardown on Wednesday.
https://www.macrumors.com/2019/04/26/ifixit-pulls-galaxy-fold-teardown-samsungs-request/
Oh, and it might not be quite the right day for an Apple fanboi to be laughing about this:
"Apple recalls plugs in UK, Hong Kong and Singapore"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-48065422
That's six incidents where the plugs fail and users are at a risk of an electric shock. Yet you laugh at Samsung ...
Usually in these situations it is user error.0 -
They should pay this out. The session did happen and lap times were set by Leclerc and Vettel.Morris_Dancer said:I wonder if Ladbrokes voided or paid out on the 'fastest in first practice' market. Not bothered, I didn't back anything and can see arguments either side, but just curious.
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.fp1-report-azerbaijan-grand-prix-2019.X8txC529lrcFPbZXI1OFX.html0 -
That may be right. But Conservative voters imo will distinguish between elections that matter (like by elections and council control) versus ones where it is safe this once to cast a protest vote. That is where the erosion to the Brexit Party will happen. this may end up affecting Labour in strong Leave areas too. The Brexit Party winning on 23 May does not mean that Tories have suddenly decided they want Farage. It means in an election that does not matter for policy on tax etc., they will vote again in this referendum as they did in 20160
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Six failed chargers out of how many tens of millions - as opposed to Samsung’s exploding batteries and folding screens that pretty much all failed as soon as anyone outside the company got their hands on one?JosiasJessop said:
Hmm. "Six incidents have been reported, Apple said."TheScreamingEagles said:
Those plugs have been in circulation for a decade, it is merely a precaution.JosiasJessop said:
Having read the issue, it seems an incredibly bad design choice by Samsung. But at least they're pushing the tech, unlike Apple.TheScreamingEagles said:Samsung are running scared.
iFixit has decided to pull its revealing Samsung Galaxy Fold teardown. The decision is said to have been made after Samsung indirectly requested its removal from the website, which published the teardown on Wednesday.
https://www.macrumors.com/2019/04/26/ifixit-pulls-galaxy-fold-teardown-samsungs-request/
Oh, and it might not be quite the right day for an Apple fanboi to be laughing about this:
"Apple recalls plugs in UK, Hong Kong and Singapore"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-48065422
That's six incidents where the plugs fail and users are at a risk of an electric shock. Yet you laugh at Samsung ...0 -
I've got a Samsung. Very happy with it.JosiasJessop said:Having read the issue, it seems an incredibly bad design choice by Samsung. But at least they're pushing the tech, unlike Apple.
Oh, and it might not be quite the right day for an Apple fanboi to be laughing about this:
"Apple recalls plugs in UK, Hong Kong and Singapore"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-48065422
But back to the main point - is Heidi Allen a fascist in the making? - I wish to clarify that I am absolutely not saying that in a literal sense. Absurd notion. She's Heidi Allen, no more, no less.
My point was (is) that if the people of a country attach themselves in great numbers to a charismatic individual whose pitch is that they can run things much better because they are competent and pragmatic and free of ideology and partisanship, than that can be a route to fascism in the hands of a bad apple. Which it was in that TV drama.0 -
I
Thanks. Those are very attractive odds. IMHO, the correct price should be about 25 - 1.MikeL said:
Conservatives are 119-1 to win the Euros on Betfair.Sean_F said:
It's not even impossible that the Conservatives will top the poll. YouGov have the gap at only 6% between first and third.TheScreamingEagles said:
That’s why I’m voting Tory in the Euros.OblitusSumMe said:
If you are in favour of a negotiated Brexit who else would you vote for?AlastairMeeks said:On topic, it will be a good test of the extent of bovine loyalty to the Conservative party. It's hard to identify a single reason to vote for the Conservatives in the EU elections no matter what your political perspective. So we shall get to see the pure and inalienable Conservative vote.
Surely the Conservative vote is a proxy for support for May's Deal?
I think I'll follow the polls closely, and vote for the party that is best placed to beat Labour.
I certainly wouldn't expect them to win but that does seem a very high price.
Brexit 1.57
Labour 2.9
Change UK 80
Conservative 1200 -
Mr. Sandpit, I'd probably agree (although my interest is purely academic). Incidentally, in case you missed it earlier my pre-qualifying ramble might be up at an odd time as I'm uncertain what's happening over the weekend, so might be today or tomorrow (before or after third practice).
Welcome to PB, Mr. Nicholson.0 -
Chance to see a Messi hat-trick in the flesh not just on TV!TheScreamingEagles said:Need some travel advice.
I have three options to get to Barcelona, which airline should I fly with?
i) EasyJet
ii) Ryanair
iii) Jet2
Jealous is not the word.0 -
London was 60% Remain, but at the moment Change UK don't seem likely to outpoll the Greens or the Lib Dems, and those three parties surely won't manage six seats between them in London.dyedwoolie said:Hold on, Jan rostowski evens for a seat? Second choice change UK in London, surely that's ridiculously short?
0 -
Just laid UKIP for Euro elections at 1.58 on Betfair. There are so many parties and LAB might just back a second referendum. If the latter happens next Tuesday then the betting will change.0
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I agree that Samsung's folding screen is a hideous design (from what has been reported). I'm just pointing out that Apple isn't immune to getting things wrong either. Although Apple are usually somewhat hesitant to admit mistakes, so the plug recall's a good thing.Sandpit said:
Six failed chargers out of how many tens of millions - as opposed to Samsung’s exploding batteries and folding screens that pretty much all failed as soon as anyone outside the company got their hands on one?JosiasJessop said:
Hmm. "Six incidents have been reported, Apple said."TheScreamingEagles said:
Those plugs have been in circulation for a decade, it is merely a precaution.JosiasJessop said:
Having read the issue, it seems an incredibly bad design choice by Samsung. But at least they're pushing the tech, unlike Apple.TheScreamingEagles said:Samsung are running scared.
iFixit has decided to pull its revealing Samsung Galaxy Fold teardown. The decision is said to have been made after Samsung indirectly requested its removal from the website, which published the teardown on Wednesday.
https://www.macrumors.com/2019/04/26/ifixit-pulls-galaxy-fold-teardown-samsungs-request/
Oh, and it might not be quite the right day for an Apple fanboi to be laughing about this:
"Apple recalls plugs in UK, Hong Kong and Singapore"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-48065422
That's six incidents where the plugs fail and users are at a risk of an electric shock. Yet you laugh at Samsung ...
And BTW, batteries shouldn't explode. And mains plugs should not fall apart. On the scale of potential impact on consumers, these are much more serious than the screen issue, which is one that imperils no-one.0 -
FPT @Dura_Ace
The formulation "racism = power + prejudice" has its place but it ignores the fact that a group can be globally powerless but individuals or a subgroup can be locally powerful. This can lead to the locally powerful practicing prejudice with insouciance. It may be better to just combat prejudice.0 -
At those odds, £10 on the Conservatives is a good bet.Sean_F said:I
Thanks. Those are very attractive odds. IMHO, the correct price should be about 25 - 1.MikeL said:
Conservatives are 119-1 to win the Euros on Betfair.Sean_F said:
It's not even impossible that the Conservatives will top the poll. YouGov have the gap at only 6% between first and third.TheScreamingEagles said:
That’s why I’m voting Tory in the Euros.OblitusSumMe said:
If you are in favour of a negotiated Brexit who else would you vote for?AlastairMeeks said:On topic, it will be a good test of the extent of bovine loyalty to the Conservative party. It's hard to identify a single reason to vote for the Conservatives in the EU elections no matter what your political perspective. So we shall get to see the pure and inalienable Conservative vote.
Surely the Conservative vote is a proxy for support for May's Deal?
I think I'll follow the polls closely, and vote for the party that is best placed to beat Labour.
I certainly wouldn't expect them to win but that does seem a very high price.
Brexit 1.57
Labour 2.9
Change UK 80
Conservative 1200 -
The beginnings of facism are always successfully convincing the majority or the dominant of a false problem to which you are the only answer. Then fake evidence of said problem and be begged to take the reinskinabalu said:
I've got a Samsung. Very happy with it.JosiasJessop said:Having read the issue, it seems an incredibly bad design choice by Samsung. But at least they're pushing the tech, unlike Apple.
Oh, and it might not be quite the right day for an Apple fanboi to be laughing about this:
"Apple recalls plugs in UK, Hong Kong and Singapore"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-48065422
But back to the main point - is Heidi Allen a fascist in the making? - I wish to clarify that I am absolutely not saying that in a literal sense. Absurd notion. She's Heidi Allen, no more, no less.
My point was (is) that if the people of a country attach themselves in great numbers to a charismatic individual whose pitch is that they can run things much better because they are competent and pragmatic and free of ideology and partisanship, than that can be a route to fascism in the hands of a bad apple. Which it was in that TV drama.0 -
Any of those are finekjohnw said:
Any other than Ryanair , jet2 are okTheScreamingEagles said:Need some travel advice.
I have three options to get to Barcelona, which airline should I fly with?
i) EasyJet
ii) Ryanair
iii) Jet2
My experience of Ryanair was positive tbh.
0 -
0
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baTheScreamingEagles said:Need some travel advice.
I have three options to get to Barcelona, which airline should I fly with?
i) EasyJet
ii) Ryanair
iii) Jet20 -
You sound just like the Yanks who are blaming the pilots of the 737 Max's that crashed and absolving Boeing of any blame.TheScreamingEagles said:
Out of several million in issue.JosiasJessop said:
Hmm. "Six incidents have been reported, Apple said."TheScreamingEagles said:
Those plugs have been in circulation for a decade, it is merely a precaution.JosiasJessop said:
Having read the issue, it seems an incredibly bad design choice by Samsung. But at least they're pushing the tech, unlike Apple.TheScreamingEagles said:Samsung are running scared.
iFixit has decided to pull its revealing Samsung Galaxy Fold teardown. The decision is said to have been made after Samsung indirectly requested its removal from the website, which published the teardown on Wednesday.
https://www.macrumors.com/2019/04/26/ifixit-pulls-galaxy-fold-teardown-samsungs-request/
Oh, and it might not be quite the right day for an Apple fanboi to be laughing about this:
"Apple recalls plugs in UK, Hong Kong and Singapore"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-48065422
That's six incidents where the plugs fail and users are at a risk of an electric shock. Yet you laugh at Samsung ...
Usually in these situations it is user error.
"There have been thousands of flights, and only those two crashed. It's obviously user error..."0 -
from london, BA is.TheScreamingEagles said:
Are they direct?Sandpit said:
iv) BATheScreamingEagles said:Need some travel advice.
I have three options to get to Barcelona, which airline should I fly with?
i) EasyJet
ii) Ryanair
iii) Jet2
v) KLM0 -
Prejudice against powerful groups, such as the Jews, can be as murderous as prejudice against groups without power.viewcode said:FPT @Dura_Ace
The formulation "racism = power + prejudice" has its place but it ignores the fact that a group can be globally powerless but individuals or a subgroup can be locally powerful. This can lead to the locally powerful practicing prejudice with insouciance. It may be better to just combat prejudice.0 -
Brexit Party surely?MikeSmithson said:Just laid UKIP for Euro elections at 1.58 on Betfair. There are so many parties and LAB might just back a second referendum. If the latter happens next Tuesday then the betting will change.
0 -
You mean Brexit Party I think Mike?MikeSmithson said:Just laid UKIP for Euro elections at 1.58 on Betfair. There are so many parties and LAB might just back a second referendum. If the latter happens next Tuesday then the betting will change.
0 -
They have now just dropped the "N" word and now they are called BProttenborough said:
iirc BNP did well in NW in previous EU contests.kinabalu said:
One would hope not. But I suppose he's picked a part of the country where he at least thinks they might be.dyedwoolie said:Hes gonna need about 10% against 7 competitors........ surely the EDL types aren't a 10% presence??
0 -
Bodes well for Tommy then. Unfortunately I get the impression that his appeal is wider than that of the old BNP or National Front. The anti Islam thing has traction and it can be dressed up as not racist, merely a tough but fair roughing up of a primitive ideology that is incompatible with a modern liberal democracy. People fall for this, especially if they are suspicious of Muslims themselves and seeking some cover for their prejudice.rottenborough said:iirc BNP did well in NW in previous EU contests.
BTW, the database of 3m 'never before voters' that Vote Leave exploited so effectively in the 2016 referendum, do we know who owns that now?0 -
I guess if change are going to surge anywhere it will be London if labour look leavishOblitusSumMe said:
London was 60% Remain, but at the moment Change UK don't seem likely to outpoll the Greens or the Lib Dems, and those three parties surely won't manage six seats between them in London.dyedwoolie said:Hold on, Jan rostowski evens for a seat? Second choice change UK in London, surely that's ridiculously short?
0 -
Personally, I'm not tempted. As long as those odds are it's just impossible to back a party without even a PLAN on how to win. At least CHUK have one of them.Sean_F said:
At those odds, £10 on the Conservatives is a good bet.Sean_F said:I
Thanks. Those are very attractive odds. IMHO, the correct price should be about 25 - 1.MikeL said:
Conservatives are 119-1 to win the Euros on Betfair.Sean_F said:
It's not even impossible that the Conservatives will top the poll. YouGov have the gap at only 6% between first and third.TheScreamingEagles said:
That’s why I’m voting Tory in the Euros.OblitusSumMe said:
If you are in favour of a negotiated Brexit who else would you vote for?AlastairMeeks said:On topic, it will be a good test of the extent of bovine loyalty to the Conservative party. It's hard to identify a single reason to vote for the Conservatives in the EU elections no matter what your political perspective. So we shall get to see the pure and inalienable Conservative vote.
Surely the Conservative vote is a proxy for support for May's Deal?
I think I'll follow the polls closely, and vote for the party that is best placed to beat Labour.
I certainly wouldn't expect them to win but that does seem a very high price.
Brexit 1.57
Labour 2.9
Change UK 80
Conservative 1200 -
Wasn't the whipped up perception of the Jews as a 'powerful group' the real cause of the murderousness rather than Jews actually being powerful and/or a group? They ended up being pretty fucking powerless from 1933-45.Sean_F said:
Prejudice against powerful groups, such as the Jews, can be as murderous as prejudice against groups without power.viewcode said:FPT @Dura_Ace
The formulation "racism = power + prejudice" has its place but it ignores the fact that a group can be globally powerless but individuals or a subgroup can be locally powerful. This can lead to the locally powerful practicing prejudice with insouciance. It may be better to just combat prejudice.0 -
I'd suggest it makes labour a very good bet to top the poll in the NW, Brexit and Tommy fish the same waterskinabalu said:
Bodes well for Tommy then. Unfortunately I get the impression that his appeal is wider than that of the old BNP or National Front. The anti Islam thing has traction and it can be dressed up as not racist, merely a tough but fair roughing up of a primitive ideology that is incompatible with a modern liberal democracy. People fall for that, especially if they are suspicious of Muslims themselves and seeking some cover for their prejudice.rottenborough said:iirc BNP did well in NW in previous EU contests.
BTW, that database of 3m 'never before voters' that Vote Leave exploited so effectively in the 2016 referendum, do we know who owns that now?0 -
Anyone is powerless once you start killing them, even French or Russian aristocrats. That doesn't mean they were powerless at the beginning.Theuniondivvie said:
Wasn't the whipped up perception of the Jews as a 'powerful group' the actual cause of the murderousness rather than Jews being powerful and/or a group? They ended up being pretty fucking powerless from 1933-45.Sean_F said:
Prejudice against powerful groups, such as the Jews, can be as murderous as prejudice against groups without power.viewcode said:FPT @Dura_Ace
The formulation "racism = power + prejudice" has its place but it ignores the fact that a group can be globally powerless but individuals or a subgroup can be locally powerful. This can lead to the locally powerful practicing prejudice with insouciance. It may be better to just combat prejudice.0 -
I know that some Scots are convinced that the 1707 Act of Union was in some way deficient, but it does appear that Scotland and England both created Great Britain voluntarily.williamglenn said:
That would be a misleading question because it wrongly implies that the UK is a voluntary union of separate states.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah that non standard question generally produces larger leads for Unionists.CarlottaVance said:SINDYREF2 nailed on then.....
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1121553219828813830
Still if we get Indyref2 the UK government knows that question should be on the ballot papers.
And I've seen some Irish people argue that when Ireland split in the 20's NI momentarily left the UK before (re)joining voluntarily.
Plus given that Northern Ireland and Scotland have both voted in referendums (albeit in different decades) to remain in the UK, it would seem that is the voluntary association you disclaim.0 -
I understand your point.Sean_F said:Prejudice against powerful groups, such as the Jews, can be as murderous as prejudice against groups without power.
However, to tag the Jews as 'a powerful group' is something that if you were in the Labour Party could bring you to the attention of Margaret Hodge, with a possible referral to Laura Murray to explain the exact context and meaning of the phrase.0 -
IndeedSean_F said:
Prejudice against powerful groups, such as the Jews, can be as murderous as prejudice against groups without power.viewcode said:FPT @Dura_Ace
The formulation "racism = power + prejudice" has its place but it ignores the fact that a group can be globally powerless but individuals or a subgroup can be locally powerful. This can lead to the locally powerful practicing prejudice with insouciance. It may be better to just combat prejudice.0 -
Mr. F, it's reminiscent of the bizarre language some people use about 'punching up'.0
-
It's a constitutional point, not a political point. The UK is only a voluntary union to the extent that the government of the day decides that it's voluntary.viewcode said:
I know that some Scots are convinced that the 1707 Act of Union was in some way deficient, but it does appear that Scotland and England both created Great Britain voluntarily.williamglenn said:
That would be a misleading question because it wrongly implies that the UK is a voluntary union of separate states.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah that non standard question generally produces larger leads for Unionists.CarlottaVance said:SINDYREF2 nailed on then.....
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1121553219828813830
Still if we get Indyref2 the UK government knows that question should be on the ballot papers.
And I've seen some Irish people argue that when Ireland split in the 20's NI momentarily left the UK before (re)joining voluntarily.
Plus given that Northern Ireland and Scotland have both voted in referendums (albeit in different decades) to remain in the UK, it would seem that is the voluntary association you disclaim.0 -
I went to Barcelona for a conference last year and EasyJet were fine. A quick connection on the underground too. With Speedy boarding you get a small bag as well as a carry on.TheScreamingEagles said:Need some travel advice.
I have three options to get to Barcelona, which airline should I fly with?
i) EasyJet
ii) Ryanair
iii) Jet2
If you are going for the match then probably flight times, reliability and availibility matter more than anything.0 -
Same as the EU.williamglenn said:
It's a constitutional point, not a political point. The UK is only a voluntary union to the extent that the government of the day decides that it's voluntary.viewcode said:
I know that some Scots are convinced that the 1707 Act of Union was in some way deficient, but it does appear that Scotland and England both created Great Britain voluntarily.williamglenn said:
That would be a misleading question because it wrongly implies that the UK is a voluntary union of separate states.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah that non standard question generally produces larger leads for Unionists.CarlottaVance said:SINDYREF2 nailed on then.....
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1121553219828813830
Still if we get Indyref2 the UK government knows that question should be on the ballot papers.
And I've seen some Irish people argue that when Ireland split in the 20's NI momentarily left the UK before (re)joining voluntarily.
Plus given that Northern Ireland and Scotland have both voted in referendums (albeit in different decades) to remain in the UK, it would seem that is the voluntary association you disclaim.0 -
Yes indeed.dyedwoolie said:The beginnings of facism are always successfully convincing the majority or the dominant of a false problem to which you are the only answer. Then fake evidence of said problem and be begged to take the reins
And I suppose to be scrupulously fair - to fascists - it helps if the false problem has a sliver of truth to it.0 -
No, we have the unilateral right to leave the EU and could have done so already if Parliament had wanted to.Sandpit said:
Same as the EU.williamglenn said:
It's a constitutional point, not a political point. The UK is only a voluntary union to the extent that the government of the day decides that it's voluntary.viewcode said:
I know that some Scots are convinced that the 1707 Act of Union was in some way deficient, but it does appear that Scotland and England both created Great Britain voluntarily.williamglenn said:
That would be a misleading question because it wrongly implies that the UK is a voluntary union of separate states.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah that non standard question generally produces larger leads for Unionists.CarlottaVance said:SINDYREF2 nailed on then.....
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1121553219828813830
Still if we get Indyref2 the UK government knows that question should be on the ballot papers.
And I've seen some Irish people argue that when Ireland split in the 20's NI momentarily left the UK before (re)joining voluntarily.
Plus given that Northern Ireland and Scotland have both voted in referendums (albeit in different decades) to remain in the UK, it would seem that is the voluntary association you disclaim.0 -
Easyjet over Ryanair any day of the week.TheScreamingEagles said:Need some travel advice.
I have three options to get to Barcelona, which airline should I fly with?
i) EasyJet
ii) Ryanair
iii) Jet20 -
The Act of Union would not, of course, have secured a majority had a popular referendum been held in Scotland. So "voluntary" is one of those curious definitions.viewcode said:
I know that some Scots are convinced that the 1707 Act of Union was in some way deficient, but it does appear that Scotland and England both created Great Britain voluntarily.williamglenn said:
That would be a misleading question because it wrongly implies that the UK is a voluntary union of separate states.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah that non standard question generally produces larger leads for Unionists.CarlottaVance said:SINDYREF2 nailed on then.....
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1121553219828813830
Still if we get Indyref2 the UK government knows that question should be on the ballot papers.
And I've seen some Irish people argue that when Ireland split in the 20's NI momentarily left the UK before (re)joining voluntarily.
Plus given that Northern Ireland and Scotland have both voted in referendums (albeit in different decades) to remain in the UK, it would seem that is the voluntary association you disclaim.0 -
No, if the problem has a sliver of truth to it, there's always the risk someone will solve the problem. Far better for the would-be fascist if the problem is entirely fictitious.kinabalu said:
Yes indeed.dyedwoolie said:The beginnings of facism are always successfully convincing the majority or the dominant of a false problem to which you are the only answer. Then fake evidence of said problem and be begged to take the reins
And I suppose to be scrupulously fair - to fascists - it helps if the false problem has a sliver of truth to it.0 -
Cable's decision this morning to launch the LDs European elections campaign with a 'simple' and 'unambiguous' plan to stop Brexit is a clear attempt on his part to position the LDs as the leading anti Brexit Party and pitch for the votes of Remainers while accusing the Tories and Labour of attempting to 'stitch up' a Brexit Deal
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-480646990 -
Sean_F said:
powerful groups, such as the Jews
???0 -
Hmmmdyedwoolie said:
The beginnings of facism are always successfully convincing the majority or the dominant of a false problem to which you are the only answer. Then fake evidence of said problem and be begged to take the reinskinabalu said:
I've got a Samsung. Very happy with it.JosiasJessop said:Having read the issue, it seems an incredibly bad design choice by Samsung. But at least they're pushing the tech, unlike Apple.
Oh, and it might not be quite the right day for an Apple fanboi to be laughing about this:
"Apple recalls plugs in UK, Hong Kong and Singapore"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-48065422
But back to the main point - is Heidi Allen a fascist in the making? - I wish to clarify that I am absolutely not saying that in a literal sense. Absurd notion. She's Heidi Allen, no more, no less.
My point was (is) that if the people of a country attach themselves in great numbers to a charismatic individual whose pitch is that they can run things much better because they are competent and pragmatic and free of ideology and partisanship, than that can be a route to fascism in the hands of a bad apple. Which it was in that TV drama.
Bojo successfully convinced the majority that EU membership was a problem and Brexit was the only answer. This was largely based on fake evidence, cake and eat it, straight bananas, EU-USSR etc etc. Now it seems the Tories are begging him to take the reins.0 -
Ok I'll bite. How do you do "user error" with plugs? Do Apple do fancy plugs that need a manual? (I'm not an Apple user so I don't know)TheScreamingEagles said:
Out of several million in issue.JosiasJessop said:
Hmm. "Six incidents have been reported, Apple said."TheScreamingEagles said:
Those plugs have been in circulation for a decade, it is merely a precaution.JosiasJessop said:
Having read the issue, it seems an incredibly bad design choice by Samsung. But at least they're pushing the tech, unlike Apple.TheScreamingEagles said:Samsung are running scared.
iFixit has decided to pull its revealing Samsung Galaxy Fold teardown. The decision is said to have been made after Samsung indirectly requested its removal from the website, which published the teardown on Wednesday.
https://www.macrumors.com/2019/04/26/ifixit-pulls-galaxy-fold-teardown-samsungs-request/
Oh, and it might not be quite the right day for an Apple fanboi to be laughing about this:
"Apple recalls plugs in UK, Hong Kong and Singapore"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-48065422
That's six incidents where the plugs fail and users are at a risk of an electric shock. Yet you laugh at Samsung ...
Usually in these situations it is user error.0 -
Yes posing Jews as a "powerful group" is anti-semitism under point 2 of the IHRA definition:kinabalu said:
I understand your point.Sean_F said:Prejudice against powerful groups, such as the Jews, can be as murderous as prejudice against groups without power.
However, to tag the Jews as 'a powerful group' is something that if you were in the Labour Party could bring you to the attention of Margaret Hodge, with a possible referral to Laura Murray to explain the exact context and meaning of the phrase.
https://www.holocaustremembrance.com/working-definition-antisemitism0 -
With Milne controlling the show and even the likes of Stephen Kinnock opposed to a second EU referendum that is unlikely to be the official positionMikeSmithson said:Just laid UKIP for Euro elections at 1.58 on Betfair. There are so many parties and LAB might just back a second referendum. If the latter happens next Tuesday then the betting will change.
0 -
How much more is Grayling about to cost the country?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/26/po-sues-over-33m-eurotunnel-payout-in-brexit-ferry-fiasco0 -
Quite. Farage is trying the same trick. Fascist face offanothernick said:
Hmmmdyedwoolie said:
The beginnings of facism are always successfully convincing the majority or the dominant of a false problem to which you are the only answer. Then fake evidence of said problem and be begged to take the reinskinabalu said:
I've got a Samsung. Very happy with it.JosiasJessop said:Having read the issue, it seems an incredibly bad design choice by Samsung. But at least they're pushing the tech, unlike Apple.
Oh, and it might not be quite the right day for an Apple fanboi to be laughing about this:
"Apple recalls plugs in UK, Hong Kong and Singapore"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-48065422
But back to the main point - is Heidi Allen a fascist in the making? - I wish to clarify that I am absolutely not saying that in a literal sense. Absurd notion. She's Heidi Allen, no more, no less.
My point was (is) that if the people of a country attach themselves in great numbers to a charismatic individual whose pitch is that they can run things much better because they are competent and pragmatic and free of ideology and partisanship, than that can be a route to fascism in the hands of a bad apple. Which it was in that TV drama.
Bojo successfully convinced the majority that EU membership was a problem and Brexit was the only answer. This was largely based on fake evidence, cake and eat it, straight bananas, EU-USSR etc etc. Now it seems the Tories are begging him to take the reins.0 -
Except one allows their members to democratically decide to leave it at any point (regardless of that member's absolute incompetence in carrying it out), the other doesn't.Sandpit said:
Same as the EU.williamglenn said:
It's a constitutional point, not a political point. The UK is only a voluntary union to the extent that the government of the day decides that it's voluntary.viewcode said:
I know that some Scots are convinced that the 1707 Act of Union was in some way deficient, but it does appear that Scotland and England both created Great Britain voluntarily.williamglenn said:
That would be a misleading question because it wrongly implies that the UK is a voluntary union of separate states.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah that non standard question generally produces larger leads for Unionists.CarlottaVance said:SINDYREF2 nailed on then.....
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1121553219828813830
Still if we get Indyref2 the UK government knows that question should be on the ballot papers.
And I've seen some Irish people argue that when Ireland split in the 20's NI momentarily left the UK before (re)joining voluntarily.
Plus given that Northern Ireland and Scotland have both voted in referendums (albeit in different decades) to remain in the UK, it would seem that is the voluntary association you disclaim.0 -
Yes - I give way to a wiser man.williamglenn said:No, if the problem has a sliver of truth to it, there's always the risk someone will solve the problem. Far better for the would-be fascist if the problem is entirely fictitious.
0 -
I did not know that, thank you. I learn something new every day. But my point remains: using the power level of a group (real or imagined) to excuse prejudicial actions against or by an individual from that group can cause problems. It is simpler to just deprecate prejudice.Foxy said:
Yes posing Jews as a "powerful group" is anti-semitism under point 2 of the IHRA definition:kinabalu said:
I understand your point.Sean_F said:Prejudice against powerful groups, such as the Jews, can be as murderous as prejudice against groups without power.
However, to tag the Jews as 'a powerful group' is something that if you were in the Labour Party could bring you to the attention of Margaret Hodge, with a possible referral to Laura Murray to explain the exact context and meaning of the phrase.
https://www.holocaustremembrance.com/working-definition-antisemitism0 -
I'm not alleging that Jews, either now, or in the 1920's, were engaged in a conspiracy.Foxy said:
Yes posing Jews as a "powerful group" is anti-semitism under point 2 of the IHRA definition:kinabalu said:
I understand your point.Sean_F said:Prejudice against powerful groups, such as the Jews, can be as murderous as prejudice against groups without power.
However, to tag the Jews as 'a powerful group' is something that if you were in the Labour Party could bring you to the attention of Margaret Hodge, with a possible referral to Laura Murray to explain the exact context and meaning of the phrase.
https://www.holocaustremembrance.com/working-definition-antisemitism0 -
Rubbish, many voted positively for Cameron or Howard, even May last time.AmpfieldAndy said:The only reason to vote Tory since 1997 has been to try and keep Labour out. Given the total muppets in the current parliamentary party and in Gov in particular, that reason no longer seems so compelling notwithstanding the absolutely disgusting nature of Corbyn’s Labour.
However next time there certainly will be a large part of the Tory vote to keep Corbyn out, far more than yo keep Blair or Ed Miliband out0 -
The best lies always have a grain of truth in them.kinabalu said:
Yes - I give way to a wiser man.williamglenn said:No, if the problem has a sliver of truth to it, there's always the risk someone will solve the problem. Far better for the would-be fascist if the problem is entirely fictitious.
0 -
In theory maybe, in practice not so much.Theuniondivvie said:
Except one allows their members to democratically decide to leave it at any point (regardless of that member's absolute incompetence in carrying it out), the other doesn't.Sandpit said:
Same as the EU.williamglenn said:
It's a constitutional point, not a political point. The UK is only a voluntary union to the extent that the government of the day decides that it's voluntary.viewcode said:
I know that some Scots are convinced that the 1707 Act of Union was in some way deficient, but it does appear that Scotland and England both created Great Britain voluntarily.williamglenn said:
That would be a misleading question because it wrongly implies that the UK is a voluntary union of separate states.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah that non standard question generally produces larger leads for Unionists.CarlottaVance said:SINDYREF2 nailed on then.....
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1121553219828813830
Still if we get Indyref2 the UK government knows that question should be on the ballot papers.
And I've seen some Irish people argue that when Ireland split in the 20's NI momentarily left the UK before (re)joining voluntarily.
Plus given that Northern Ireland and Scotland have both voted in referendums (albeit in different decades) to remain in the UK, it would seem that is the voluntary association you disclaim.0 -
I'm not sure this is entirely fair.....but it has a ring of truth (or 'truthiness') to it:
https://twitter.com/allisonpearson/status/11215152087977533460
