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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories should take some consolation from Newport West – th

SystemSystem Posts: 12,172
edited April 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories should take some consolation from Newport West – the disaster that did not happen

The narrative at the moment is all about how appallingly the Tories will do in the Euro elections on May 23rd. Almost no threads appear on PB these without some new prediction of the impending disaster. But are we overstating this? I think that we might be

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,684
    Interesting.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,684
    FPT

    @AlastairMeeks - This isn’t you is it ?

    AA Gill Memorial Prize - Pinsent Masons solicitor

    "London lunches are good, in Glasgow I'd rather eat shavings from a ped egg."

    https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/firm-year-2019-best-comment-awards
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Cyclefree said:

    rottenborough said:

    I noted the other day that this story could build and become very serious for someone in government:

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1121660207619162118

    What bothers me more is the decision to invite the Chinese into our telecoms infrastructure.
    Seconded....while the leak is incredibly serious, it is overshadowing the fact the government are willing to go with them, despite serious warnings from the likes of the US.
    Whilst I share your concerns, the US are not exactly disinterested parties in this, in several ways.
    Is the problem that Huawei lets the Chinese spy on us, or that it doesn't let the Americans spy on us? I always work on the assumption that someone could read all my electronic communications if they wanted to, and it doesn't bother me personally as I am not doing anything anyone would be interested in. (typed on a Huawei phone).
    Loving the fact that you posted that under a pseudonym.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    UKIP was always a colossal lay in the Newport West market. The Brexit party is not in the euros. THe FPTP distribution of the Brexit parties votes in particular will shit both parties up.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    https://twitter.com/Alistair_King/status/1121669631679184902
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    edited April 2019
    Wasn't Hamilton being the UKIP candidate a factor? He's marmite without the love component.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,684
    https://twitter.com/hughrbennett/status/1121706824854573056?s=21
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1121677793920569344
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT

    @AlastairMeeks - This isn’t you is it ?

    AA Gill Memorial Prize - Pinsent Masons solicitor

    "London lunches are good, in Glasgow I'd rather eat shavings from a ped egg."

    https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/firm-year-2019-best-comment-awards

    I had not realised that Gordon Pollock QC had died. He was one hell of a barrister. I worked with him years ago on a couple of cases. A ferocious intellect and utterly fearless.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,684
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1121677793920569344

    He’s only saying that because he’s got a Tory leadership contest to win.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Trouble at t’ mill for the TIG/CUK/RA/whatever

    Founder of their activist network quits;

    https://www.twitter.com/thetimes/status/1121702969391689728
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,628
    edited April 2019
    F1 farce in Baku, as first session abandoned after a manhole cover lifted on the track, causing damage to two cars.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT

    @AlastairMeeks - This isn’t you is it ?

    AA Gill Memorial Prize - Pinsent Masons solicitor

    "London lunches are good, in Glasgow I'd rather eat shavings from a ped egg."

    https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/firm-year-2019-best-comment-awards

    As if I'd eat in the staff canteen.

    (I suspect that comment was from a Glasgow solicitor.)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,684
    Sandpit said:

    F1 farce in Baku, as first session abandoned after a manhole cover lifted on the track, causing damage to two cars.

    Corbyn’s a fan of manhole covers.

    Was he involved ?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1121677793920569344

    He’s only saying that because he’s got a Tory leadership contest to win.
    Yes, and then after winning the leadership contest, he'll have Tory MPs/activists to keep happy...
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    brokenwheel said:

    Trouble at t’ mill for the TIG/CUK/RA/whatever

    Founder of their activist network quits;

    https://www.twitter.com/thetimes/status/1121702969391689728

    The people prepared to quit the established parties for a new party have self-selected to be a group of people with little tolerance or patience for reality falling short of perfection.

    Some level of discord would seem to be inevitable.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited April 2019
    brokenwheel said:

    Trouble at t’ mill for the TIG/CUK/RA/whatever

    Founder of their activist network quits;

    https://www.twitter.com/thetimes/status/1121702969391689728

    He is having a free to air personal meltdown.

    https://twitter.com/DanHeley1?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

    Also fair to point out that the evidence, looking at TIG's progress, suggests he wasn't terribly good at founding activist networks.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,628
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1121677793920569344

    Good to see at least one of the Cabinet realise that we are going to end up with that binary choice.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Sandpit, weird. Although something similar happened somewhere else. Maybe Monaco?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1121677793920569344

    Still a Remainer then.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    F1 farce in Baku, as first session abandoned after a manhole cover lifted on the track, causing damage to two cars.

    Corbyn’s a fan of manhole covers.

    Was he involved ?
    Na, Friday is jam day.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    brokenwheel said:

    Trouble at t’ mill for the TIG/CUK/RA/whatever

    Founder of their activist network quits;

    https://www.twitter.com/thetimes/status/1121702969391689728

    On the plus-side, they've got UKIP's endorsement:

    https://twitter.com/DawnHFoster/status/1121699725458194432
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1121677793920569344

    He’s only saying that because he’s got a Tory leadership contest to win.
    There was a time, not so many years ago, when politicians understood that the national interest was more important than, and could conflict with, their own personal career interests.

    There are still a few such in the Tory Party, but none are in the Cabinet.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT

    @AlastairMeeks - This isn’t you is it ?

    AA Gill Memorial Prize - Pinsent Masons solicitor

    "London lunches are good, in Glasgow I'd rather eat shavings from a ped egg."

    https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/firm-year-2019-best-comment-awards

    With foreboding I had to look up what a ped egg is.

    Deep fried they'd be fine.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On topic, it will be a good test of the extent of bovine loyalty to the Conservative party. It's hard to identify a single reason to vote for the Conservatives in the EU elections no matter what your political perspective. So we shall get to see the pure and inalienable Conservative vote.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    The only reason to vote Tory since 1997 has been to try and keep Labour out. Given the total muppets in the current parliamentary party and in Gov in particular, that reason no longer seems so compelling notwithstanding the absolutely disgusting nature of Corbyn’s Labour.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    If we assume the Brexit Party are overstated then does that make it a close three-way battle for the win between Labour, Conservative and Farage?

    My Lib Dem step-mother is spitting nails at the thought that Remain voters will vote Labour (that set includes my Dad).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    Ishmael_Z said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Cyclefree said:

    rottenborough said:

    I noted the other day that this story could build and become very serious for someone in government:

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1121660207619162118

    What bothers me more is the decision to invite the Chinese into our telecoms infrastructure.
    Seconded....while the leak is incredibly serious, it is overshadowing the fact the government are willing to go with them, despite serious warnings from the likes of the US.
    Whilst I share your concerns, the US are not exactly disinterested parties in this, in several ways.
    Is the problem that Huawei lets the Chinese spy on us, or that it doesn't let the Americans spy on us? I always work on the assumption that someone could read all my electronic communications if they wanted to, and it doesn't bother me personally as I am not doing anything anyone would be interested in. (typed on a Huawei phone).
    Loving the fact that you posted that under a pseudonym.
    Whilst Ishmael_Z is very happy for his friends, family and employers to know his inner political thoughts....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,628
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Sandpit, weird. Although something similar happened somewhere else. Maybe Monaco?

    It’s happened in Monaco before, and also in Malaysia, where a drain lifted on a permanent track. It’s because the cars have so much downforce generated under the car, they literally suck up anything not properly welded down.

    By the way, my first tip for this weekend is Leclerc for his maiden win, currently 4.5 on Betfair. He loves the place and won several times here in F2.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    AlastairMeeks said:

    On topic, it will be a good test of the extent of bovine loyalty to the Conservative party. It's hard to identify a single reason to vote for the Conservatives in the EU elections no matter what your political perspective. So we shall get to see the pure and inalienable Conservative vote.

    If you are in favour of a negotiated Brexit who else would you vote for?

    Surely the Conservative vote is a proxy for support for May's Deal?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,684
    OblitusSumMe said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    On topic, it will be a good test of the extent of bovine loyalty to the Conservative party. It's hard to identify a single reason to vote for the Conservatives in the EU elections no matter what your political perspective. So we shall get to see the pure and inalienable Conservative vote.

    If you are in favour of a negotiated Brexit who else would you vote for?

    Surely the Conservative vote is a proxy for support for May's Deal?
    That’s why I’m voting Tory in the Euros.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Dear god....

    https://order-order.com/2019/04/26/milne-suggests-collusion-isis-israel/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,628
    edited April 2019
    AlastairMeeks said:

    On topic, it will be a good test of the extent of bovine loyalty to the Conservative party. It's hard to identify a single reason to vote for the Conservatives in the EU elections no matter what your political perspective. So we shall get to see the pure and inalienable Conservative vote.

    For the EU elections, probably around 15%?

    I don’t think any candidate except Dan Hannan (#1 in an 11-seat region) thinks they are safe.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    MarqueeMark said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Cyclefree said:

    rottenborough said:

    I noted the other day that this story could build and become very serious for someone in government:

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1121660207619162118

    What bothers me more is the decision to invite the Chinese into our telecoms infrastructure.
    Seconded....while the leak is incredibly serious, it is overshadowing the fact the government are willing to go with them, despite serious warnings from the likes of the US.
    Whilst I share your concerns, the US are not exactly disinterested parties in this, in several ways.
    Is the problem that Huawei lets the Chinese spy on us, or that it doesn't let the Americans spy on us? I always work on the assumption that someone could read all my electronic communications if they wanted to, and it doesn't bother me personally as I am not doing anything anyone would be interested in. (typed on a Huawei phone).
    Loving the fact that you posted that under a pseudonym.
    Whilst Ishmael_Z is very happy for his friends, family and employers to know his inner political thoughts....
    Do the funky bunch know yours ?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Labours leaflet silliness has the potential to badly affect their euro vote. I'm increasingly of the opinion both the big two will be in the teens. Brexit to win imo on ca 25%, change, ld and green to be in the 7 to 11 range
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    AlastairMeeks said:

    On topic, it will be a good test of the extent of bovine loyalty to the Conservative party. It's hard to identify a single reason to vote for the Conservatives in the EU elections no matter what your political perspective. So we shall get to see the pure and inalienable Conservative vote.

    They would seem to be the obvious party to vote for if you favour the Deal.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    dyedwoolie said:

    Labours leaflet silliness has the potential to badly affect their euro vote. I'm increasingly of the opinion both the big two will be in the teens. Brexit to win imo on ca 25%, change, ld and green to be in the 7 to 11 range

    I think 25 is a bit on the low end.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    MarqueeMark said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Cyclefree said:

    rottenborough said:

    I noted the other day that this story could build and become very serious for someone in government:

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1121660207619162118

    What bothers me more is the decision to invite the Chinese into our telecoms infrastructure.
    Seconded....while the leak is incredibly serious, it is overshadowing the fact the government are willing to go with them, despite serious warnings from the likes of the US.
    Whilst I share your concerns, the US are not exactly disinterested parties in this, in several ways.
    Is the problem that Huawei lets the Chinese spy on us, or that it doesn't let the Americans spy on us? I always work on the assumption that someone could read all my electronic communications if they wanted to, and it doesn't bother me personally as I am not doing anything anyone would be interested in. (typed on a Huawei phone).
    Loving the fact that you posted that under a pseudonym.
    Whilst Ishmael_Z is very happy for his friends, family and employers to know his inner political thoughts....
    Well, yes, but I'm not the one claiming that "I always work on the assumption that someone could read all my electronic communications if they wanted to, and it doesn't bother me personally as I am not doing anything anyone would be interested in", am I?

    I'd also expect you of all people to be aware that _Z is a very old Devon surname.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Sandpit, odds a little short, and accidents happen easily. What are his pole odds?

    If I were backing a top dog to do well I'd probably be keener on qualifying bets.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    RobD said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Labours leaflet silliness has the potential to badly affect their euro vote. I'm increasingly of the opinion both the big two will be in the teens. Brexit to win imo on ca 25%, change, ld and green to be in the 7 to 11 range

    I think 25 is a bit on the low end.
    Possibly but I think with 7 parties all hoping to secure at least 1 mep theres limited numbers to play with. If brexit are much north of 25 I think its going to be existentially horrific for the Tories
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    brokenwheel said:

    Trouble at t’ mill for the TIG/CUK/RA/whatever

    Founder of their activist network quits;

    https://www.twitter.com/thetimes/status/1121702969391689728

    Chucka's just not up to it... Time for Heidi to unleash her inner Tory, push him under the proverbial bus and take back control for herself. :D
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    dyedwoolie said:

    Labours leaflet silliness has the potential to badly affect their euro vote. I'm increasingly of the opinion both the big two will be in the teens. Brexit to win imo on ca 25%, change, ld and green to be in the 7 to 11 range

    What I can't understand is why Lord Adonis agreed to that ridiculous statement. He should have stood his ground - they knew his views when he was selected as an MEP candidate. He would have done far better to stick to his principles even if he was deselected.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1121677793920569344

    No Leaver is going to trust Hunt. He’s always blown with the wind and what he did to the junior doctors shows he’s totally self serving and untrustworthy.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,684
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1121677793920569344

    No Leaver is going to trust Hunt. He’s always blown with the wind and what he did to the junior doctors shows he’s totally self serving and untrustworthy.
    He showed he was a true Thatcherite as he put a trade union in its place.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Sandpit said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Sandpit, weird. Although something similar happened somewhere else. Maybe Monaco?

    It’s happened in Monaco before, and also in Malaysia, where a drain lifted on a permanent track. It’s because the cars have so much downforce generated under the car, they literally suck up anything not properly welded down.

    By the way, my first tip for this weekend is Leclerc for his maiden win, currently 4.5 on Betfair. He loves the place and won several times here in F2.
    Williams have a history with Baku drain covers:
    https://www.foxsports.com/motor/story/f1-baku-williams-valtteri-bottas-drain-cover-061816

    Idiotic that they’re still not properly welded down after the numerous incidents over the last few years.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,737
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1121677793920569344

    No Leaver is going to trust Hunt. He’s always blown with the wind and what he did to the junior doctors shows he’s totally self serving and untrustworthy.
    He showed he was a true Thatcherite as he put a trade union in its place.
    Hunt was astute. Having won his pyrrhic victory over the juniors, he quietly abandoned plans to bugger us seniors about. Rota gaps abound.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    OblitusSumMe said:

    brokenwheel said:

    Trouble at t’ mill for the TIG/CUK/RA/whatever

    Founder of their activist network quits;

    https://www.twitter.com/thetimes/status/1121702969391689728

    The people prepared to quit the established parties for a new party have self-selected to be a group of people with little tolerance or patience for reality falling short of perfection.

    Some level of discord would seem to be inevitable.
    Certainly but I have had extensive dealings with the office of one of the leading TIGs and I have to say they were the most arrogant, insensitive and high-handed bunch I have ever had the misfortune to encounter. Quite unable to understand that not everyone believed that the sun shone out of their boss's nether regions and impervious to any criticism or suggestion from those outside the charmed circle (most of whom had no experience of politics outside the Palace of Westminster). Those people probably wrote the paper dissing the Lib Dems, they will never be able to form a broad-based political party.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    On topic, it will be a good test of the extent of bovine loyalty to the Conservative party. It's hard to identify a single reason to vote for the Conservatives in the EU elections no matter what your political perspective. So we shall get to see the pure and inalienable Conservative vote.

    If you are in favour of a negotiated Brexit who else would you vote for?

    Surely the Conservative vote is a proxy for support for May's Deal?
    That’s why I’m voting Tory in the Euros.

    Certainly more rational than voting for Farage’s Brexit ‘to give the government a nudge’.

    But nothing around Brexit is rational any more.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    AlastairMeeks said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Labours leaflet silliness has the potential to badly affect their euro vote. I'm increasingly of the opinion both the big two will be in the teens. Brexit to win imo on ca 25%, change, ld and green to be in the 7 to 11 range

    What I can't understand is why Lord Adonis agreed to that ridiculous statement. He should have stood his ground - they knew his views when he was selected as an MEP candidate. He would have done far better to stick to his principles even if he was deselected.
    Its indicative of the deep division in labour between the old left/current leadership leavers and the centre left remain majority. It's as ridiculous a coalition as the Tories. Both deserve an utter drubbing
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited April 2019
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1121677793920569344

    No Leaver is going to trust Hunt. He’s always blown with the wind and what he did to the junior doctors shows he’s totally self serving and untrustworthy.
    He showed he was a true Thatcherite as he put a trade union in its place.
    There is nothing Thatcherite about Hunt - at all. Nothing Thatcherite about this Tory Party sadly. Try running a health service without doctors. Thatcher was smart enough not to try.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    RobD said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Labours leaflet silliness has the potential to badly affect their euro vote. I'm increasingly of the opinion both the big two will be in the teens. Brexit to win imo on ca 25%, change, ld and green to be in the 7 to 11 range

    I think 25 is a bit on the low end.
    Inclined to agree.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,628
    edited April 2019
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Sandpit, weird. Although something similar happened somewhere else. Maybe Monaco?

    It’s happened in Monaco before, and also in Malaysia, where a drain lifted on a permanent track. It’s because the cars have so much downforce generated under the car, they literally suck up anything not properly welded down.

    By the way, my first tip for this weekend is Leclerc for his maiden win, currently 4.5 on Betfair. He loves the place and won several times here in F2.
    Williams have a history with Baku drain covers:
    https://www.foxsports.com/motor/story/f1-baku-williams-valtteri-bottas-drain-cover-061816

    Idiotic that they’re still not properly welded down after the numerous incidents over the last few years.
    Sky just showed a replay of that one. Not a good look for the circuit. Apparently there’s 350 of them, that now all need to be double checked. We are only an hour away from the F2 qualifying session, which could delay (or worse) the F1 P2 session.

    George Russell won’t be going out in P2 whatever happens though, he probably needs a new chassis.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    After hearing reports on the NSC leak, I am struggling to to see who benefits. The report I heard said For (Hunt) Home (Javid) and Def (Williamson) secretaries all spoke out against Huawei involvement but May was the voice of reason and allowed non essential items such as aerials to be supplied by them.

    If this is supposedly related to leadership positioning who is that supposed to benefit?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1121677793920569344

    No Leaver is going to trust Hunt. He’s always blown with the wind and what he did to the junior doctors shows he’s totally self serving and untrustworthy.
    His time as Foreign Secretary has really shown his limitations.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,684
    Nemtynakht said:

    After hearing reports on the NSC leak, I am struggling to to see who benefits. The report I heard said For (Hunt) Home (Javid) and Def (Williamson) secretaries all spoke out against Huawei involvement but May was the voice of reason and allowed non essential items such as aerials to be supplied by them.

    If this is supposedly related to leadership positioning who is that supposed to benefit?

    Irregular verbs time.

    That's another of those irregular verbs, isn't it?

    I give confidential press briefings; you leak; he's being charged under section 2A of the Official Secrets Act.

    From the peerless Yes, Minister.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    AlastairMeeks said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Labours leaflet silliness has the potential to badly affect their euro vote. I'm increasingly of the opinion both the big two will be in the teens. Brexit to win imo on ca 25%, change, ld and green to be in the 7 to 11 range

    What I can't understand is why Lord Adonis agreed to that ridiculous statement. He should have stood his ground - they knew his views when he was selected as an MEP candidate. He would have done far better to stick to his principles even if he was deselected.
    Agreed. Can see why the statement was made (to remind people that Labour, unlike the Tories, can still impose message discipline on candidates) but the tone was too servile and obviously forced.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    It's going to be close between Con and Lab in terms of the popular vote IMO, at both the Euros and the local elections.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,684
    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    On topic, it will be a good test of the extent of bovine loyalty to the Conservative party. It's hard to identify a single reason to vote for the Conservatives in the EU elections no matter what your political perspective. So we shall get to see the pure and inalienable Conservative vote.

    If you are in favour of a negotiated Brexit who else would you vote for?

    Surely the Conservative vote is a proxy for support for May's Deal?
    That’s why I’m voting Tory in the Euros.

    Certainly more rational than voting for Farage’s Brexit ‘to give the government a nudge’.

    But nothing around Brexit is rational any more.
    I know.

    We’re dealing with people who assured me that only a Leave vote would unite the country and Tory party.

    Oh and end the Tory fracture on Europe.
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nemtynakht said:

    After hearing reports on the NSC leak, I am struggling to to see who benefits. The report I heard said For (Hunt) Home (Javid) and Def (Williamson) secretaries all spoke out against Huawei involvement but May was the voice of reason and allowed non essential items such as aerials to be supplied by them.

    If this is supposedly related to leadership positioning who is that supposed to benefit?

    Irregular verbs time.

    That's another of those irregular verbs, isn't it?

    I give confidential press briefings; you leak; he's being charged under section 2A of the Official Secrets Act.

    From the peerless Yes, Minister.
    Yes, Prime Minister - Man Overboard. I believe
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Sandpit, weird. Although something similar happened somewhere else. Maybe Monaco?

    It’s happened in Monaco before, and also in Malaysia, where a drain lifted on a permanent track. It’s because the cars have so much downforce generated under the car, they literally suck up anything not properly welded down.

    By the way, my first tip for this weekend is Leclerc for his maiden win, currently 4.5 on Betfair. He loves the place and won several times here in F2.
    Williams have a history with Baku drain covers:
    https://www.foxsports.com/motor/story/f1-baku-williams-valtteri-bottas-drain-cover-061816

    Idiotic that they’re still not properly welded down after the numerous incidents over the last few years.
    Sky just showed a replay of that one. Not a good look for the circuit. Apparently there’s 350 of them, that now all need to be double checked. We are only an hour away from the F2 qualifying session, which could delay (or worse) the F1 P2 session.

    George Russell won’t be going out in P2 whatever happens though, he probably needs a new chassis.
    Worse, the recovery truck hit the bridge, and they now have to check its structural integrity.

    Russell quite lucky not to suffer serious injury.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,737
    williamglenn said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1121677793920569344

    No Leaver is going to trust Hunt. He’s always blown with the wind and what he did to the junior doctors shows he’s totally self serving and untrustworthy.
    His time as Foreign Secretary has really shown his limitations.
    To be fair, he is a step up from his predecessor!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    AlastairMeeks said:

    What I can't understand is why Lord Adonis agreed to that ridiculous statement. He should have stood his ground - they knew his views when he was selected as an MEP candidate. He would have done far better to stick to his principles even if he was deselected.

    It's a mystery to me too. To anybody who follows politics that statement really did read like it was written with a gun to his head or an explosive device down his trousers. Those memes that fly about are usually fun but absurd, however in this case, the idea that he had been kidnapped and these were the forced and stilted words of a hostage, missing only the stark head-shot, the bulging eyes, and the held-up copy of that day's Times, it rang true. It was exactly like that. What gives?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,684
    Samsung are running scared.

    iFixit has decided to pull its revealing Samsung Galaxy Fold teardown. The decision is said to have been made after Samsung indirectly requested its removal from the website, which published the teardown on Wednesday.

    https://www.macrumors.com/2019/04/26/ifixit-pulls-galaxy-fold-teardown-samsungs-request/
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    Foxy said:

    williamglenn said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1121677793920569344

    No Leaver is going to trust Hunt. He’s always blown with the wind and what he did to the junior doctors shows he’s totally self serving and untrustworthy.
    His time as Foreign Secretary has really shown his limitations.
    To be fair, he is a step up from his predecessor!
    Boris got a worldwide co-ordinated response to the Salisbury poisonings.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    SINDYREF2 nailed on then.....

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1121553219828813830
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,684
    edited April 2019
    CarlottaVance said:

    SINDYREF2 nailed on then.....

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1121553219828813830

    Yeah that non standard question generally produces larger leads for Unionists.

    Still if we get Indyref2 the UK government knows that question should be on the ballot papers.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1121714837409730560
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    kinabalu said:

    It's a mystery to me too. To anybody who follows politics that statement really did read like it was written with a gun to his head or an explosive device down his trousers. Those memes that fly about are usually fun but absurd, however in this case, the idea that he had been kidnapped and these were the forced and stilted words of a hostage, missing only the stark head-shot, the bulging eyes, and the held-up copy of that day's Times, it rang true. It was exactly like that. What gives?

    I suppose, just thinking about it, it could be that he wanted it to read like that. So it was obvious to all that he was not 'free' as it were, and these were not his real views.

    Rather like when a woman, say, is being held by a hostile intruder and the phone goes and the intruder says "OK answer it but be normal." So she does and it's her husband and he says, "Hi honey, everything OK?"

    To which she replies, "Yes, buttercup, just off to Tesco in a minute."

    Except that she NEVER calls him buttercup (she hates that sort of thing) and she NEVER goes to Tesco, never would, it's Waitrose all the way.

    Hence hubby is tipped off and he calls the cops.

    Perhaps it's like that here with Lord Adonis.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,628
    williamglenn said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1121677793920569344

    No Leaver is going to trust Hunt. He’s always blown with the wind and what he did to the junior doctors shows he’s totally self serving and untrustworthy.
    His time as Foreign Secretary has really shown his limitations.
    He’s doing a damn sight better than his predecessor.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,684
    https://twitter.com/msmithsonpb/status/1121718147445293056?s=21
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,060
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nemtynakht said:

    After hearing reports on the NSC leak, I am struggling to to see who benefits. The report I heard said For (Hunt) Home (Javid) and Def (Williamson) secretaries all spoke out against Huawei involvement but May was the voice of reason and allowed non essential items such as aerials to be supplied by them.

    If this is supposedly related to leadership positioning who is that supposed to benefit?

    Irregular verbs time.

    That's another of those irregular verbs, isn't it?

    I give confidential press briefings; you leak; he's being charged under section 2A of the Official Secrets Act.

    From the peerless Yes, Minister.
    But have we gone from "Leak Inquiry" to an actual attempt to find the leaker yet? ;)
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2019
    AlastairMeeks said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Labours leaflet silliness has the potential to badly affect their euro vote. I'm increasingly of the opinion both the big two will be in the teens. Brexit to win imo on ca 25%, change, ld and green to be in the 7 to 11 range

    What I can't understand is why Lord Adonis agreed to that ridiculous statement. He should have stood his ground - they knew his views when he was selected as an MEP candidate. He would have done far better to stick to his principles even if he was deselected.
    It was well-known that Adonis was an enthusiastic cheerleader for Remain when the NEC selected him, but there's a difference between that and haughtily telling all Leave voters that their votes were not wanted, Hillary Clinton-style.

    In any case, again, as much as some people (including Adonis, and possibly you?) think that Labour's political interests are best served by being virulently anti-Brexit, the party's polling trajectory this year suggests a different story.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Samsung are running scared.

    iFixit has decided to pull its revealing Samsung Galaxy Fold teardown. The decision is said to have been made after Samsung indirectly requested its removal from the website, which published the teardown on Wednesday.

    https://www.macrumors.com/2019/04/26/ifixit-pulls-galaxy-fold-teardown-samsungs-request/

    I think they’ve reacted quite sensibly, and with commendable speed - in sharp contrast to the way they dealt with the Galaxy 7 problems.

    More interestingly, they’ve decided to take on Intel and TSMC in processor chip fabrication.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Sandpit said:

    williamglenn said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1121677793920569344

    No Leaver is going to trust Hunt. He’s always blown with the wind and what he did to the junior doctors shows he’s totally self serving and untrustworthy.
    His time as Foreign Secretary has really shown his limitations.
    He’s doing a damn sight better than his predecessor.
    If you add up Hunt's gaffes I'm not so sure about that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    kinabalu said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    What I can't understand is why Lord Adonis agreed to that ridiculous statement. He should have stood his ground - they knew his views when he was selected as an MEP candidate. He would have done far better to stick to his principles even if he was deselected.

    It's a mystery to me too. To anybody who follows politics that statement really did read like it was written with a gun to his head or an explosive device down his trousers. Those memes that fly about are usually fun but absurd, however in this case, the idea that he had been kidnapped and these were the forced and stilted words of a hostage, missing only the stark head-shot, the bulging eyes, and the held-up copy of that day's Times, it rang true. It was exactly like that. What gives?
    "Aphrodite and Persephone had a dispute over Adonis because both of the goddesses wanted him and Persephone refused to give him back. In the end, Zeus had to get involved and settle the argument once and for all.

    Zeus told the goddesses that a third of a year should be given to both of them and the other would be for Adonis to decide. Adonis chose to be with....the Labour Party.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    It's a mystery to me too. To anybody who follows politics that statement really did read like it was written with a gun to his head or an explosive device down his trousers. Those memes that fly about are usually fun but absurd, however in this case, the idea that he had been kidnapped and these were the forced and stilted words of a hostage, missing only the stark head-shot, the bulging eyes, and the held-up copy of that day's Times, it rang true. It was exactly like that. What gives?

    I suppose, just thinking about it, it could be that he wanted it to read like that. So it was obvious to all that he was not 'free' as it were, and these were not his real views.

    Rather like when a woman, say, is being held by a hostile intruder and the phone goes and the intruder says "OK answer it but be normal." So she does and it's her husband and he says, "Hi honey, everything OK?"

    To which she replies, "Yes, buttercup, just off to Tesco in a minute."

    Except that she NEVER calls him buttercup (she hates that sort of thing) and she NEVER goes to Tesco, never would, it's Waitrose all the way.

    Hence hubby is tipped off and he calls the cops.

    Perhaps it's like that here with Lord Adonis.
    But rather easier for him to just say no.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Danny565 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Labours leaflet silliness has the potential to badly affect their euro vote. I'm increasingly of the opinion both the big two will be in the teens. Brexit to win imo on ca 25%, change, ld and green to be in the 7 to 11 range

    What I can't understand is why Lord Adonis agreed to that ridiculous statement. He should have stood his ground - they knew his views when he was selected as an MEP candidate. He would have done far better to stick to his principles even if he was deselected.
    It was well-known that Adonis was an enthusiastic cheerleader for Remain when the NEC selected him, but there's a difference between that and haughtily telling all Leave voters that their votes were not wanted, Hillary Clinton-style.
    Of course. But the statement he put out was a complete contradiction of everything he had previously stood for.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,684
    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Samsung are running scared.

    iFixit has decided to pull its revealing Samsung Galaxy Fold teardown. The decision is said to have been made after Samsung indirectly requested its removal from the website, which published the teardown on Wednesday.

    https://www.macrumors.com/2019/04/26/ifixit-pulls-galaxy-fold-teardown-samsungs-request/

    I think they’ve reacted quite sensibly, and with commendable speed - in sharp contrast to the way they dealt with the Galaxy 7 problems.

    More interestingly, they’ve decided to take on Intel and TSMC in processor chip fabrication.

    That should be the marketing slogan for the fold, ‘At least it doesn’t explode.’
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Nigelb said:

    But rather easier for him to just say no.

    Well, yes, but sometimes these clever types get too clever by half.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,628
    anothernick said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Labours leaflet silliness has the potential to badly affect their euro vote. I'm increasingly of the opinion both the big two will be in the teens. Brexit to win imo on ca 25%, change, ld and green to be in the 7 to 11 range

    What I can't understand is why Lord Adonis agreed to that ridiculous statement. He should have stood his ground - they knew his views when he was selected as an MEP candidate. He would have done far better to stick to his principles even if he was deselected.
    Agreed. Can see why the statement was made (to remind people that Labour, unlike the Tories, can still impose message discipline on candidates) but the tone was too servile and obviously forced.
    And the content was very clearly at odds with everything Adonis has been saying for the past three years!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    edited April 2019
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1121677793920569344

    No Leaver is going to trust Hunt. He’s always blown with the wind and what he did to the junior doctors shows he’s totally self serving and untrustworthy.
    He showed he was a true Thatcherite as he put a trade union in its place.
    There is nothing Thatcherite about Hunt - at all. Nothing Thatcherite about this Tory Party sadly. Try running a health service without doctors. Thatcher was smart enough not to try.
    Well he seems to have gone from being pro to anti EU, so that's a bit like Magrit.

    Though afaics Magrit was a LOT more pro EU than Hunt.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/msmithsonpb/status/1121718147445293056?s=21

    Robinson 6/4.

    Fuck me.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    edited April 2019
    MarqueeMark said:

    "Aphrodite and Persephone had a dispute over Adonis because both of the goddesses wanted him and Persephone refused to give him back. In the end, Zeus had to get involved and settle the argument once and for all.

    Zeus told the goddesses that a third of a year should be given to both of them and the other would be for Adonis to decide. Adonis chose to be with....the Labour Party.

    It is a great name, isn't it.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/msmithsonpb/status/1121718147445293056?s=21

    Gavin eslers price is Way too short on the current polling, its evens at best change get an mep surely?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,628
    edited April 2019
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/msmithsonpb/status/1121718147445293056?s=21

    Is Tommy Robinson actually standing?
    Some of those don’t look right as they are #2 or #3 on the lists.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited April 2019
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Samsung are running scared.

    iFixit has decided to pull its revealing Samsung Galaxy Fold teardown. The decision is said to have been made after Samsung indirectly requested its removal from the website, which published the teardown on Wednesday.

    https://www.macrumors.com/2019/04/26/ifixit-pulls-galaxy-fold-teardown-samsungs-request/

    I am planning to take Mike's advice and get a Xiao Mi Pocofone. Direct links to 八一大楼.

    Edit: apologies for using the Chinese language the translation is Ba Yi Da Lou.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    williamglenn said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1121677793920569344

    No Leaver is going to trust Hunt. He’s always blown with the wind and what he did to the junior doctors shows he’s totally self serving and untrustworthy.
    His time as Foreign Secretary has really shown his limitations.
    A fellow Question Time panellist (of Hunt, not me) I spoke to recently said he’s as thick as mince, Japanese ability notwithstanding.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited April 2019
    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/msmithsonpb/status/1121718147445293056?s=21

    Is Tommy Robinson actually standing?
    Yes, in the North West.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    edited April 2019
    Tommy Robinson 6/4 to be elected as an MEP? That's a 2 in 5 chance. OMG.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,684
    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/msmithsonpb/status/1121718147445293056?s=21

    Is Tommy Robinson actually standing?
    Yes, in the North West as an Indy.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    kinabalu said:

    Tommy Robinson 6/4 to be elected as an MEP? That's a 2 in 5 chance. OMG.

    Hes gonna need about 10% against 7 competitors........ surely the EDL types aren't a 10% presence??
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/msmithsonpb/status/1121718147445293056?s=21

    Is Tommy Robinson actually standing?
    Some of those don’t look right as they are #2 or #3 on the lists.
    Just can't see Labour getting two MEPs in the SW. So Adonis will have sold his soul for what?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,684
    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/msmithsonpb/status/1121718147445293056?s=21

    Robinson 6/4.

    Fuck me.
    I don’t think it’ll happen.

    How will his name appear on the ballot paper?

    If it is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon then that’s going to cost him.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    On topic, it will be a good test of the extent of bovine loyalty to the Conservative party. It's hard to identify a single reason to vote for the Conservatives in the EU elections no matter what your political perspective. So we shall get to see the pure and inalienable Conservative vote.

    If you are in favour of a negotiated Brexit who else would you vote for?

    Surely the Conservative vote is a proxy for support for May's Deal?
    That’s why I’m voting Tory in the Euros.
    It's not even impossible that the Conservatives will top the poll. YouGov have the gap at only 6% between first and third.

    I think I'll follow the polls closely, and vote for the party that is best placed to beat Labour.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    TOPPING said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Samsung are running scared.

    iFixit has decided to pull its revealing Samsung Galaxy Fold teardown. The decision is said to have been made after Samsung indirectly requested its removal from the website, which published the teardown on Wednesday.

    https://www.macrumors.com/2019/04/26/ifixit-pulls-galaxy-fold-teardown-samsungs-request/

    I am planning to take Mike's advice and get a Xiao Mi Pocofone. Direct links to 八一大楼.

    Edit: apologies for using the Chinese language the translation is Ba Yi Da Lou.
    Assume you'll be getting the armoured version?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    I don't doubt that there's some great money to be had on the Euro elections but I think I'm steering clear. Call it chicken, but there's so much about the whole Brexit issue that I simply cannot call, or even fathom. I've never known anything like it in politics. So I'm crossing by on the other side of the road for this one.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1121720188695654400
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    If on Tuesday Labour come out decisively for a people's vote that will see them top the poll.

    Er, I think.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,628
    edited April 2019
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/msmithsonpb/status/1121718147445293056?s=21

    Is Tommy Robinson actually standing?
    Yes, in the North West as an Indy.
    Ah okay, that explains why he wasn’t on the UKIP list. There’s 8 seats in the NW, are more than 12.5% really going to vote for him by name, in preference to any party?

    Was rather hoping that we’d avoid his name being involved with the elections.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    MarqueeMark said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/msmithsonpb/status/1121718147445293056?s=21

    Is Tommy Robinson actually standing?
    Some of those don’t look right as they are #2 or #3 on the lists.
    Just can't see Labour getting two MEPs in the SW. So Adonis will have sold his soul for what?
    "To take a man's soul, and give him *nothing* in return, that is what really gladdens the heart of Our Father Below" according to Screwtape.
This discussion has been closed.