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  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384

    I'm not sure this is entirely fair.....but it has a ring of truth (or 'truthiness') to it:

    https://twitter.com/allisonpearson/status/1121515208797753346

    IN fairness, most politicians are going to be middle to upper middle class, and a former Finance Minister from Poland is quite a significant catch.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    I'm not sure this is entirely fair.....but it has a ring of truth (or 'truthiness') to it:

    https://twitter.com/allisonpearson/status/1121515208797753346

    Wazzocks come from all backgrounds shocker
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    I'm not sure this is entirely fair.....but it has a ring of truth (or 'truthiness') to it:

    https://twitter.com/allisonpearson/status/1121515208797753346

    They’ve been using “The Guardian” as a Facebook ad target, so it’s hardly surprising.
    https://order-order.com/2019/04/25/chuk-microtargeting-guardian-readers-facebook/

    I’m not sure they realise how this looks to anyone outside London and the Home Counties.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Biden video:

    "The reaction to the video was decidedly mixed — even among political professionals. Some hailed it as stroke of genius that distinguished Biden from the crowded Democratic field by announcing in stark terms his intention to take the fight to Trump in a way no one else has dared.

    Others, however, viewed it as a serious miscalculation, an exercise in stepping on his own message as the heir to Obama’s inspirational legacy." [Politico]

    I'm with the former group.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    Prejudice against powerful groups, such as the Jews, can be as murderous as prejudice against groups without power.

    I understand your point.

    However, to tag the Jews as 'a powerful group' is something that if you were in the Labour Party could bring you to the attention of Margaret Hodge, with a possible referral to Laura Murray to explain the exact context and meaning of the phrase.
    One could cite plenty of other examples such as the Tutsis, or American Liberians, or the Armenians in WWI.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    viewcode said:

    Yeah that non standard question generally produces larger leads for Unionists.

    Still if we get Indyref2 the UK government knows that question should be on the ballot papers.
    That would be a misleading question because it wrongly implies that the UK is a voluntary union of separate states.
    I know that some Scots are convinced that the 1707 Act of Union was in some way deficient, but it does appear that Scotland and England both created Great Britain voluntarily.

    And I've seen some Irish people argue that when Ireland split in the 20's NI momentarily left the UK before (re)joining voluntarily.

    Plus given that Northern Ireland and Scotland have both voted in referendums (albeit in different decades) to remain in the UK, it would seem that is the voluntary association you disclaim.
    It's a constitutional point, not a political point. The UK is only a voluntary union to the extent that the government of the day decides that it's voluntary.
    Same as the EU.
    Except one allows their members to democratically decide to leave it at any point (regardless of that member's absolute incompetence in carrying it out), the other doesn't.
    In theory maybe, in practice not so much.
    Britain is in a unique position when it comes to the difficulty of leaving the EU as, in the Good Friday Agreement, we gave up on an exclusive territorial claim to Northern Island and accepted that Irish unity was a legitimate aspiration - and an aspiration that we would help to bring to fruition if it was supported by a majority of the Northern Ireland population.

    This implies a close relationship between the UK and the Republic of Ireland that has no parallel between any other European countries. Any other country would find it simpler to leave the EU.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217

    Biden video:

    "The reaction to the video was decidedly mixed — even among political professionals. Some hailed it as stroke of genius that distinguished Biden from the crowded Democratic field by announcing in stark terms his intention to take the fight to Trump in a way no one else has dared.

    Others, however, viewed it as a serious miscalculation, an exercise in stepping on his own message as the heir to Obama’s inspirational legacy." [Politico]

    I'm with the former group.

    A polarised reaction is good in a large field, I think he'll pick up plenty of moderate/centrist democrats... the campus wokies weren't ever going to be his constituency this election.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,135

    I'm not sure this is entirely fair.....but it has a ring of truth (or 'truthiness') to it:

    https://twitter.com/allisonpearson/status/1121515208797753346

    I'm not entirely sure why a Telegraph columnist thinks being middle-class disqualifies someone from political office, but there y'go.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,244
    Sean_F said:

    I'm not alleging that Jews, either now, or in the 1920's, were engaged in a conspiracy.

    1. The world is run by the Jews.

    2. Jews have a disproportionate influence on the world given that there are so few of them.

    (1) is drop-dead antisemitism. (2) can be too in the wrong hands.

    Then again, (2) can form the basis of a bum rap of antisemitism in the wrong hands.

    Minefield.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,244
    Sean_F said:

    The best lies always have a grain of truth in them.

    And the very best liars believe their own lies.

    Wisdom pouring forth from all and sundry on the board today!
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 500
    edited April 2019

    Biden video:

    "The reaction to the video was decidedly mixed — even among political professionals. Some hailed it as stroke of genius that distinguished Biden from the crowded Democratic field by announcing in stark terms his intention to take the fight to Trump in a way no one else has dared.

    Others, however, viewed it as a serious miscalculation, an exercise in stepping on his own message as the heir to Obama’s inspirational legacy." [Politico]

    I'm with the former group.

    Yes, all the other Democratic candidates have been shamefully silent on the key issue of Orange Man Bad.

    Buttigieg: Trump 'should never have been able to come within cheating distance of the Oval Office'
    Warren on impeaching Trump: If anyone else did what he did, 'they would be arrested and put in jail'
    Bernie Sanders: Trump 'a fraud, a pathological liar and a racist'
    Kamala Harris promises to 'prosecute the case' against Trump in 2020 election bid

    Looks like Neil Kinnock isn't the only politician Biden needs to copy from...
    Sean_F said:

    I'm not sure this is entirely fair.....but it has a ring of truth (or 'truthiness') to it:

    https://twitter.com/allisonpearson/status/1121515208797753346

    IN fairness, most politicians are going to be middle to upper middle class, and a former Finance Minister from Poland is quite a significant catch.
    Is that the homophobic one, or the one who talked about Romanian pickpockets?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    I'm not alleging that Jews, either now, or in the 1920's, were engaged in a conspiracy.

    1. The world is run by the Jews.

    2. Jews have a disproportionate influence on the world given that there are so few of them.

    (1) is drop-dead antisemitism. (2) can be too in the wrong hands.

    Then again, (2) can form the basis of a bum rap of antisemitism in the wrong hands.

    Minefield.
    Really?

    There's no justification for treating Jews as a cohesive group in this context - that's why it's anti-Semitic.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Biden video:

    "The reaction to the video was decidedly mixed — even among political professionals. Some hailed it as stroke of genius that distinguished Biden from the crowded Democratic field by announcing in stark terms his intention to take the fight to Trump in a way no one else has dared.

    Others, however, viewed it as a serious miscalculation, an exercise in stepping on his own message as the heir to Obama’s inspirational legacy." [Politico]

    I'm with the former group.

    It makes sense as a strategy from his point of view. He doesn't really have any vision or policies to sell, so he's trying to harness the base's Trump-hating fervour. I'm not sure people will go for it though- if you had to imagine an anti-Trump who represents his opposite, that would probably look a lot more like Buttigieg or Harris than Biden.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,135
    edited April 2019
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    viewcode said:

    Yeah that non standard question generally produces larger leads for Unionists.

    Still if we get Indyref2 the UK government knows that question should be on the ballot papers.
    That would be a misleading question because it wrongly implies that the UK is a voluntary union of separate states.
    I know that some Scots are convinced that the 1707 Act of Union was in some way deficient, but it does appear that Scotland and England both created Great Britain voluntarily.

    And I've seen some Irish people argue that when Ireland split in the 20's NI momentarily left the UK before (re)joining voluntarily.

    Plus given that Northern Ireland and Scotland have both voted in referendums (albeit in different decades) to remain in the UK, it would seem that is the voluntary association you disclaim.
    It's a constitutional point, not a political point. The UK is only a voluntary union to the extent that the government of the day decides that it's voluntary.
    Same as the EU.
    Except one allows their members to democratically decide to leave it at any point (regardless of that member's absolute incompetence in carrying it out), the other doesn't.
    In theory maybe, in practice not so much.
    In practice we decided to leave the EU, they said yes, we realised we couldn't get it done in time and asked for a withdrawal agreement to bridge the gap, they said yes, we asked them to modify it, they said yes, we couldn't agree on that agreement and asked them for an extension, they said yes, we still couldn't agree and asked for a further extension, they said yes, we then went on holiday for a bit because stress.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    I'm not alleging that Jews, either now, or in the 1920's, were engaged in a conspiracy.

    1. The world is run by the Jews.

    2. Jews have a disproportionate influence on the world given that there are so few of them.

    (1) is drop-dead antisemitism. (2) can be too in the wrong hands.

    Then again, (2) can form the basis of a bum rap of antisemitism in the wrong hands.

    Minefield.
    Really?

    There's no justification for treating Jews as a cohesive group in this context - that's why it's anti-Semitic.
    Yes exactly. The idea of race conferring (or removing) power isn't that they all get together to form lobbies, and that some races' lobbies are more powerful than others. It's something that happens on an individual level.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    He's the tory membership's dream candidate on paper due to his unimpeachable, principled and honest position on brexit. He's an ex 2nd Lt. in the poachers and any military record always summons forth dewdrops on the otherwise utterly desiccated labia majora of the tories. He just needs to master the Boris style subtle islamophobia and he'd really be in with a shot.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Dura_Ace said:

    He's the tory membership's dream candidate on paper due to his unimpeachable, principled and honest position on brexit. He's an ex 2nd Lt. in the poachers and any military record always summons forth dewdrops on the otherwise utterly desiccated labia majora of the tories. He just needs to master the Boris style subtle islamophobia and he'd really be in with a shot.
    Plus massive twat
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,167
    Dura_Ace said:

    He's the tory membership's dream candidate on paper due to his unimpeachable, principled and honest position on brexit. He's an ex 2nd Lt. in the poachers and any military record always summons forth dewdrops on the otherwise utterly desiccated labia majora of the tories. He just needs to master the Boris style subtle islamophobia and he'd really be in with a shot.
    What fun a Jeremy Corbyn v Mark Francois general election would be!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    1. In what way is reprinting a story that Francois told his local paper a “scoop”?

    2. In the story he was quite clear that he had done that as a joke with a mate and that he was very unlikely to stand

    Neither of these observations undermine the fundamental truth of your post
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Dura_Ace said:

    He's the tory membership's dream candidate on paper due to his unimpeachable, principled and honest position on brexit. He's an ex 2nd Lt. in the poachers and any military record always summons forth dewdrops on the otherwise utterly desiccated labia majora of the tories. He just needs to master the Boris style subtle islamophobia and he'd really be in with a shot.
    Well, I suppose if a thickhead like Corbyn can become Labour Leader then anything is possible.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888
    FPT
    Dura_Ace said:



    Isn't this profoundly racist?

    No, because racism = power + prejudice. BME people have far less power due to structural and cultural discrimination.

    All-BME shortlists are racist (and I is speaking as someone wot is BME), just as all-women shortlists are sexist. Innit!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,167
    edited April 2019

    Biden video:

    "The reaction to the video was decidedly mixed — even among political professionals. Some hailed it as stroke of genius that distinguished Biden from the crowded Democratic field by announcing in stark terms his intention to take the fight to Trump in a way no one else has dared.

    Others, however, viewed it as a serious miscalculation, an exercise in stepping on his own message as the heir to Obama’s inspirational legacy." [Politico]

    I'm with the former group.

    It makes sense as a strategy from his point of view. He doesn't really have any vision or policies to sell, so he's trying to harness the base's Trump-hating fervour. I'm not sure people will go for it though- if you had to imagine an anti-Trump who represents his opposite, that would probably look a lot more like Buttigieg or Harris than Biden.
    The Democrats will lose if they go full polar opposite anti Trump, that only appeals to the coasts, New York and California and safe Democratic states. To win they have to win the rustbelt swing states and some voters who actually voted for Trump in 2016
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888
    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    The best lies always have a grain of truth in them.

    And the very best liars believe their own lies.

    Wisdom pouring forth from all and sundry on the board today!
    I always lie. In fact, I am lying to you now! :)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    I'm not sure this is entirely fair.....but it has a ring of truth (or 'truthiness') to it:

    https://twitter.com/allisonpearson/status/1121515208797753346

    The Brexit Party is the one doing the politically-correct quota-filling, which given their support base is very amusing. It's also astute of Farage, of course.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888

    Need some travel advice.

    I have three options to get to Barcelona, which airline should I fly with?

    i) EasyJet

    ii) Ryanair

    iii) Jet2

    iv) Sleazyjet in your case, surely :lol:
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Need some travel advice.

    I have three options to get to Barcelona, which airline should I fly with?

    i) EasyJet

    ii) Ryanair

    iii) Jet2

    Need some travel advice.

    I have three options to get to Barcelona, which airline should I fly with?

    i) EasyJet

    ii) Ryanair

    iii) Jet2

    Depends on price and what luggage you need, also time of flights but I find jet2 frequently the best option back an forth to Alicante but it’s a bloody long walk if flight is from the A gates inT2 Manchester
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Lennon's problem in the northwest will be the same as the greens/Lib Dem/Change UK ... dividing the two main blocks up as right/left- a right vote that is already taken up by a large portion (Brexit + Tories) is then further split between UKIP and Tommy Robinson.

    His ultimate job may well be to deny UKIP a seat in the Northwest.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888
    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    He's the tory membership's dream candidate on paper due to his unimpeachable, principled and honest position on brexit. He's an ex 2nd Lt. in the poachers and any military record always summons forth dewdrops on the otherwise utterly desiccated labia majora of the tories. He just needs to master the Boris style subtle islamophobia and he'd really be in with a shot.
    What fun a Jeremy Corbyn v Mark Francois general election would be!
    Lenin v. Napoleon :)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,167
    Pulpstar said:

    Lennon's problem in the northwest will be the same as the greens/Lib Dem/Change UK ... dividing the two main blocks up as right/left- a right vote that is already taken up by a large portion (Brexit + Tories) is then further split between UKIP and Tommy Robinson.

    His ultimate job may well be to deny UKIP a seat in the Northwest.

    Robinson if he wins will probably launch an EDL takeover of UKIP anyway and ultimately end up replacing Batten as its leader. He has already called Farage 'a Tory' and will aim for more working class Leavers than the Brexit Party
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Sandpit said:

    viewcode said:

    Yeah that non standard question generally produces larger leads for Unionists.

    Still if we get Indyref2 the UK government knows that question should be on the ballot papers.
    That would be a misleading question because it wrongly implies that the UK is a voluntary union of separate states.
    I know that some Scots are convinced that the 1707 Act of Union was in some way deficient, but it does appear that Scotland and England both created Great Britain voluntarily.

    And I've seen some Irish people argue that when Ireland split in the 20's NI momentarily left the UK before (re)joining voluntarily.

    Plus given that Northern Ireland and Scotland have both voted in referendums (albeit in different decades) to remain in the UK, it would seem that is the voluntary association you disclaim.
    It's a constitutional point, not a political point. The UK is only a voluntary union to the extent that the government of the day decides that it's voluntary.
    Same as the EU.
    Mr Sandpit, you are showing complete ignorance here. It is nothing like "same as EU". Despite all the lies from Brexiteers, Britain is a sovereign nation within the EU, hence why it can decide to leave, go to war etc. etc. Scotland does not have sovereignty, anymore than Cornwall or Greater London does.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    Prejudice against powerful groups, such as the Jews, can be as murderous as prejudice against groups without power.

    I understand your point.

    However, to tag the Jews as 'a powerful group' is something that if you were in the Labour Party could bring you to the attention of Margaret Hodge, with a possible referral to Laura Murray to explain the exact context and meaning of the phrase.
    Yes posing Jews as a "powerful group" is anti-semitism under point 2 of the IHRA definition:

    https://www.holocaustremembrance.com/working-definition-antisemitism
    I'm not alleging that Jews, either now, or in the 1920's, were engaged in a conspiracy.
    No, I don't think that you were, but it does illustrate how sloppy use of language can begat accusations.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    He's the tory membership's dream candidate on paper due to his unimpeachable, principled and honest position on brexit. He's an ex 2nd Lt. in the poachers and any military record always summons forth dewdrops on the otherwise utterly desiccated labia majora of the tories. He just needs to master the Boris style subtle islamophobia and he'd really be in with a shot.
    What fun a Jeremy Corbyn v Mark Francois general election would be!
    Lenin v. Napoleon :)
    Don't flatter either of them. Lenin's embalmed brain probably still has more little grey cells than Corbyn's and Francois's put together
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,167

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    He's the tory membership's dream candidate on paper due to his unimpeachable, principled and honest position on brexit. He's an ex 2nd Lt. in the poachers and any military record always summons forth dewdrops on the otherwise utterly desiccated labia majora of the tories. He just needs to master the Boris style subtle islamophobia and he'd really be in with a shot.
    What fun a Jeremy Corbyn v Mark Francois general election would be!
    Lenin v. Napoleon :)
    Or Worzel Gummidge v Penfold
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    I'm not sure this is entirely fair.....but it has a ring of truth (or 'truthiness') to it:

    https://twitter.com/allisonpearson/status/1121515208797753346

    It's also astute of Farage, of course.
    Name - logo - even logo colour - they're running rings round the "professional" politicians (not that Farage isn't professional).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,244

    Really?

    There's no justification for treating Jews as a cohesive group in this context - that's why it's anti-Semitic.

    Am I saying differently? I don't think so.

    Let's clarify by looking at the following statement:

    "Jews have a level of attainment and influence which is disproportionate to their relatively small numbers."

    I'm saying that this might or might not be antisemitic depending on context, intent etc.

    Are you saying that it is always and de facto antisemitic? - i.e. that such a statement would only be made by somebody who felt prejudice against Jews?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lennon's problem in the northwest will be the same as the greens/Lib Dem/Change UK ... dividing the two main blocks up as right/left- a right vote that is already taken up by a large portion (Brexit + Tories) is then further split between UKIP and Tommy Robinson.

    His ultimate job may well be to deny UKIP a seat in the Northwest.

    Robinson if he wins will probably launch an EDL takeover of UKIP anyway and ultimately end up replacing Batten as its leader. He has already called Farage 'a Tory' and will aim for more working class Leavers than the Brexit Party
    EDL, UKIP, Brexit Party. An unholy fascist trinity to appeal to bigots from all sections of society.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    I'm not sure this is entirely fair.....but it has a ring of truth (or 'truthiness') to it:

    https://twitter.com/allisonpearson/status/1121515208797753346

    It's also astute of Farage, of course.
    Name - logo - even logo colour - they're running rings round the "professional" politicians (not that Farage isn't professional).
    Fascists often do when the conditions suit them.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    I'm not sure this is entirely fair.....but it has a ring of truth (or 'truthiness') to it:

    https://twitter.com/allisonpearson/status/1121515208797753346

    It's also astute of Farage, of course.
    Name - logo - even logo colour - they're running rings round the "professional" politicians (not that Farage isn't professional).
    Lord Ashcroft is obviously a supporter of the Brexit party (see his twitter account). A lot of what they are doing looks to have his hand or at least his insight behind it.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Another powerfully-worded sardonic tweet from a Labour backbencher. I'm sure this one will do the trick.
    https://twitter.com/wesstreeting/status/1121749111936573440
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    At 200-1 Francois looks short to me
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    kinabalu said:

    Really?

    There's no justification for treating Jews as a cohesive group in this context - that's why it's anti-Semitic.

    Am I saying differently? I don't think so.

    Let's clarify by looking at the following statement:

    "Jews have a level of attainment and influence which is disproportionate to their relatively small numbers."

    I'm saying that this might or might not be antisemitic depending on context, intent etc.

    Are you saying that it is always and de facto antisemitic? - i.e. that such a statement would only be made by somebody who felt prejudice against Jews?
    I think that any objective historian could make that statement. The influence of Jewish writers, philosophers, theologians, scientists has been extraordinary, given their small numbers.
  • Pulpstar said:

    At 200-1 Francois looks short to me

    Mike backed him at 402/1.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217

    Pulpstar said:

    At 200-1 Francois looks short to me

    Mike backed him at 402/1.
    Steve Baker is the man for me.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    At 200-1 Francois looks short to me

    Mike backed him at 402/1.
    Steve Baker is the man for me.
    You’re not helping my mood.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,244
    Sean_F said:

    One could cite plenty of other examples such as the Tutsis, or American Liberians, or the Armenians in WWI.

    I don't have an issue with your "Jews as a powerful group" in the context you meant it.

    Just got me thinking (again) about the subject of antisemitism, which is of course topical.

    Another example. Lots of talk a few weeks ago on here about how the very powerful Irish Lobby in the US could torpedo our efforts to get a good trade deal with them if we were perceived to have stiffed the Republic on Brexit. Comments were not seen as in any way anti-Irish.

    Whereas talk of the Jewish Lobby, I venture, would meet with some disapproval.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    I remember him as Macro, in I Claudius.

    "It's against the law to execute a virgin."

    "Then make sure she's not a virgin before you execute her."
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Ed Davey is on LBC at the moment and has just stated that if TMay came out of 10 Downing St and said she had revoked article 50 he would still argue for a People’s Vote because the last vote divided people. I don’t know which bit to disbelieve more - that he wouldn’t remain full stop given half a chance or that he thinks another referendum will unite people. I guess it might unite him with his preferred outcome
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    Dura_Ace said:

    He's the tory membership's dream candidate on paper due to his unimpeachable, principled and honest position on brexit. He's an ex 2nd Lt. in the poachers and any military record always summons forth dewdrops on the otherwise utterly desiccated labia majora of the tories. He just needs to master the Boris style subtle islamophobia and he'd really be in with a shot.
    A comment which aptly bears truth to Martin Luther’King’s observation that there is nothing more dangerous than sincere ignorance.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,244

    I always lie. In fact, I am lying to you now! :)

    :-)

    You've probably heard it but -

    You reach a fork in the road, one way leads to paradise, the other to purgatory.

    There are 2 creatures standing there. One always tells the truth, the other always lies. You know this but you do not know which is which.

    You are allowed to ask one question (to one or the other, does not matter) the answer to which will tell you the fork to choose.

    What is the question?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Labours leaflet silliness has the potential to badly affect their euro vote. I'm increasingly of the opinion both the big two will be in the teens. Brexit to win imo on ca 25%, change, ld and green to be in the 7 to 11 range

    What I can't understand is why Lord Adonis agreed to that ridiculous statement. He should have stood his ground - they knew his views when he was selected as an MEP candidate. He would have done far better to stick to his principles even if he was deselected.
    He is your typical greedy troughing politician, do anything for money.
  • malcolmg said:

    Labours leaflet silliness has the potential to badly affect their euro vote. I'm increasingly of the opinion both the big two will be in the teens. Brexit to win imo on ca 25%, change, ld and green to be in the 7 to 11 range

    What I can't understand is why Lord Adonis agreed to that ridiculous statement. He should have stood his ground - they knew his views when he was selected as an MEP candidate. He would have done far better to stick to his principles even if he was deselected.
    He is your typical greedy troughing politician, do anything for money.
    He’s no Natalie McGarry.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    nichomar said:

    Need some travel advice.

    I have three options to get to Barcelona, which airline should I fly with?

    i) EasyJet

    ii) Ryanair

    iii) Jet2

    Need some travel advice.

    I have three options to get to Barcelona, which airline should I fly with?

    i) EasyJet

    ii) Ryanair

    iii) Jet2

    Depends on price and what luggage you need, also time of flights but I find jet2 frequently the best option back an forth to Alicante but it’s a bloody long walk if flight is from the A gates inT2 Manchester
    Get the 0719 Eurostar from London (or Ashford) to Lyon (some days of the week only), arriving 1300. Then by high speed train from Lyon 1424 arriving Barcelona 1930.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Sandpit said:

    Need some travel advice.

    I have three options to get to Barcelona, which airline should I fly with?

    i) EasyJet

    ii) Ryanair

    iii) Jet2

    iv) BA

    v) KLM
    Are they direct?
    I have flown Jet2 and they were great, Easyjet also good , Ryanair would bemy last choice.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited April 2019

    He’s no Natalie McGarry.


  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,244
    Sean_F said:

    I think that any objective historian could make that statement. The influence of Jewish writers, philosophers, theologians, scientists has been extraordinary, given their small numbers.

    Influence derived from individual attainment versus from acting in concert as a group.

    Yes, I think that is the million dollar distinction.

    The first not usually AS. The second could well be, and if the acting in concert is also alleged to be in secret, then it's 'cabals' and all of that and you are off to the races.

    And then there is the 'ultimate loyalty is to Israel' sentiment. That is a red flag. Trump, interestingly, fell into that with his "YOUR Prime Minister" reference to Bibi when he (Trump) was addressing a group of American Jews.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    HYUFD said:

    The only reason to vote Tory since 1997 has been to try and keep Labour out. Given the total muppets in the current parliamentary party and in Gov in particular, that reason no longer seems so compelling notwithstanding the absolutely disgusting nature of Corbyn’s Labour.

    Rubbish, many voted positively for Cameron or Howard, even May last time.

    However next time there certainly will be a large part of the Tory vote to keep Corbyn out, far more than yo keep Blair or Ed Miliband out

    Rubbish in itself. Cameron’s 2010 Big Society was such an electoral turn off that Brown who was as popular as the pox at the start of the campaign was clawing back Cameron’s poll lead. Cameron’s campaign was facile with nothing going for it. His campaign in 2015 was entirely negative based on the threat of Miliband propped up by the SNP. May copied Cameron's tactics but substituted Corbyn for Miliband and blew a 20% lead in the polls as a result. Can anyone actually remember Howard’s campaign which anodyne in the extreme.

    You need to wake up and smell the coffee as someone once said if you want the Tories to ever win again.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    I wonder how many people in line to receive these inheritances have just stopped for one moment and contemplated what a Corbyn Government might mean for them personally.

    It's one thing being happy to pay a bit more tax - I wonder how many people would be happy to lose a large chunk of a life changing inheritance.

    I suspect it's never occurred to many such people just how much they would be affected.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    kinabalu said:

    I always lie. In fact, I am lying to you now! :)

    :-)

    You've probably heard it but -

    You reach a fork in the road, one way leads to paradise, the other to purgatory.

    There are 2 creatures standing there. One always tells the truth, the other always lies. You know this but you do not know which is which.

    You are allowed to ask one question (to one or the other, does not matter) the answer to which will tell you the fork to choose.

    What is the question?
    Which path would he (the other one) choose, then take the opposite. Old conundrum.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Ed Davey is on LBC at the moment and has just stated that if TMay came out of 10 Downing St and said she had revoked article 50 he would still argue for a People’s Vote because the last vote divided people. I don’t know which bit to disbelieve more - that he wouldn’t remain full stop given half a chance or that he thinks another referendum will unite people. I guess it might unite him with his preferred outcome

    It's as disingenuous as the Lib Dem support for an in-out referendum around the time of the Lisbon controversy.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888

    HYUFD said:

    The only reason to vote Tory since 1997 has been to try and keep Labour out. Given the total muppets in the current parliamentary party and in Gov in particular, that reason no longer seems so compelling notwithstanding the absolutely disgusting nature of Corbyn’s Labour.

    Rubbish, many voted positively for Cameron or Howard, even May last time.

    However next time there certainly will be a large part of the Tory vote to keep Corbyn out, far more than yo keep Blair or Ed Miliband out

    Rubbish in itself. Cameron’s 2010 Big Society was such an electoral turn off that Brown who was as popular as the pox at the start of the campaign was clawing back Cameron’s poll lead. Cameron’s campaign was facile with nothing going for it. His campaign in 2015 was entirely negative based on the threat of Miliband propped up by the SNP. May copied Cameron's tactics but substituted Corbyn for Miliband and blew a 20% lead in the polls as a result. Can anyone actually remember Howard’s campaign which anodyne in the extreme.

    You need to wake up and smell the coffee as someone once said if you want the Tories to ever win again.
    Dave 2010 = 36%
    Dave 2015 = 37%
    Theresa 2017 = 42%
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    malcolmg said:

    Labours leaflet silliness has the potential to badly affect their euro vote. I'm increasingly of the opinion both the big two will be in the teens. Brexit to win imo on ca 25%, change, ld and green to be in the 7 to 11 range

    What I can't understand is why Lord Adonis agreed to that ridiculous statement. He should have stood his ground - they knew his views when he was selected as an MEP candidate. He would have done far better to stick to his principles even if he was deselected.
    He is your typical greedy troughing politician, do anything for money.
    He’s no Natalie McGarry.
    Not that we know anyway, who knows what he gets up to at night. Still an absolute bellend. She was your abnormal MP she got caught with her hand in the cookie jar ( obviously dumber than the average dumb MP ).
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445

    HYUFD said:

    The only reason to vote Tory since 1997 has been to try and keep Labour out. Given the total muppets in the current parliamentary party and in Gov in particular, that reason no longer seems so compelling notwithstanding the absolutely disgusting nature of Corbyn’s Labour.

    Rubbish, many voted positively for Cameron or Howard, even May last time.

    However next time there certainly will be a large part of the Tory vote to keep Corbyn out, far more than yo keep Blair or Ed Miliband out

    Rubbish in itself. Cameron’s 2010 Big Society was such an electoral turn off that Brown who was as popular as the pox at the start of the campaign was clawing back Cameron’s poll lead. Cameron’s campaign was facile with nothing going for it. His campaign in 2015 was entirely negative based on the threat of Miliband propped up by the SNP. May copied Cameron's tactics but substituted Corbyn for Miliband and blew a 20% lead in the polls as a result. Can anyone actually remember Howard’s campaign which anodyne in the extreme.

    You need to wake up and smell the coffee as someone once said if you want the Tories to ever win again.
    Dave 2010 = 36%
    Dave 2015 = 37%
    Theresa 2017 = 42%
    Lies, damn lies and statistics. Only Cameron in 2015 won an absolute majority which is what general elections are all about. Vote share is only relevant if it delivers that.
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Labours leaflet silliness has the potential to badly affect their euro vote. I'm increasingly of the opinion both the big two will be in the teens. Brexit to win imo on ca 25%, change, ld and green to be in the 7 to 11 range

    What I can't understand is why Lord Adonis agreed to that ridiculous statement. He should have stood his ground - they knew his views when he was selected as an MEP candidate. He would have done far better to stick to his principles even if he was deselected.
    He is your typical greedy troughing politician, do anything for money.
    He’s no Natalie McGarry.
    Not that we know anyway, who knows what he gets up to at night. Still an absolute bellend. She was your abnormal MP she got caught with her hand in the cookie jar ( obviously dumber than the average dumb MP ).
    And she married a Tory. Obviously a wrong'un, eh Malcolm?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,244
    IanB2 said:

    Which path would he (the other one) choose, then take the opposite. Old conundrum.

    Ah is it a real old chestnut? OK, sorry. I heard it for the first time the other day - on Midsomer Murders oddly.

    Still, glad I know it now, since if I ever find myself in that position ...
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    MikeL said:

    I wonder how many people in line to receive these inheritances have just stopped for one moment and contemplated what a Corbyn Government might mean for them personally.

    It's one thing being happy to pay a bit more tax - I wonder how many people would be happy to lose a large chunk of a life changing inheritance.

    I suspect it's never occurred to many such people just how much they would be affected.
    Hang on - for every £7 received in income this year, £1 is by way of inheritance? Pretty striking.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    MikeL said:

    I wonder how many people in line to receive these inheritances have just stopped for one moment and contemplated what a Corbyn Government might mean for them personally.

    It's one thing being happy to pay a bit more tax - I wonder how many people would be happy to lose a large chunk of a life changing inheritance.

    I suspect it's never occurred to many such people just how much they would be affected.
    Hang on - for every £7 received in income this year, £1 is by way of inheritance? Pretty striking.
    It would be interesting to see an overlay of house prices on that graph. My hypothesis is that the two are strongly correlated.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    I think that any objective historian could make that statement. The influence of Jewish writers, philosophers, theologians, scientists has been extraordinary, given their small numbers.

    Influence derived from individual attainment versus from acting in concert as a group.

    Yes, I think that is the million dollar distinction.

    The first not usually AS. The second could well be, and if the acting in concert is also alleged to be in secret, then it's 'cabals' and all of that and you are off to the races.

    And then there is the 'ultimate loyalty is to Israel' sentiment. That is a red flag. Trump, interestingly, fell into that with his "YOUR Prime Minister" reference to Bibi when he (Trump) was addressing a group of American Jews.
    In his History of the Jews, Paul Johnson made the point that ex-Jews and the children of Jewish converts were frequently involved in heretical Christian movements. He suggested that Jews had always been encouraged to debate and argue over their religion, and to challenge orthodoxy - and that spilled over into both Christianity, though converts, and then into all sorts of non-religious intellectual areas.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    kinabalu said:

    I always lie. In fact, I am lying to you now! :)

    :-)

    You've probably heard it but -

    You reach a fork in the road, one way leads to paradise, the other to purgatory.

    There are 2 creatures standing there. One always tells the truth, the other always lies. You know this but you do not know which is which.

    You are allowed to ask one question (to one or the other, does not matter) the answer to which will tell you the fork to choose.

    What is the question?
    The D&D solution

    Guard 1:ONE OF US SPEAKS NOTHING BUT TRUTH

    Guard 2:THE OTHER NOTHING BUT LIES

    Wizard: ok, i know this, we have to ask..

    Barbarian: *takes axe and kills the first guard*

    Wizard: WHAT THE HELL!

    Barbarian: *to remaining guard* is he dead

    Guard 2:NO

    barbarian: this one liar.

  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    Which path would he (the other one) choose, then take the opposite. Old conundrum.

    Ah is it a real old chestnut? OK, sorry. I heard it for the first time the other day - on Midsomer Murders oddly.

    Still, glad I know it now, since if I ever find myself in that position ...
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ReFhu8KYbmU
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Have any more manhole covers exploded in Azerbaijan?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    MikeL said:

    I wonder how many people in line to receive these inheritances have just stopped for one moment and contemplated what a Corbyn Government might mean for them personally.

    It's one thing being happy to pay a bit more tax - I wonder how many people would be happy to lose a large chunk of a life changing inheritance.

    I suspect it's never occurred to many such people just how much they would be affected.
    I think that you have to bear in mind that the average or median inheiritance is well below the limit, and that a very high proportion of people inherit very little. 15% of income is a lot, but the devil is in the detail of distribution. Certainly the amount taken in tax is redistributed quite widely.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Have any more manhole covers exploded in Azerbaijan?

    Nah, it’s Lance Stroll being Lance Stroll that’s stopping the session this time.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    Which path would he (the other one) choose, then take the opposite. Old conundrum.

    Ah is it a real old chestnut? OK, sorry. I heard it for the first time the other day - on Midsomer Murders oddly.

    Still, glad I know it now, since if I ever find myself in that position ...
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ReFhu8KYbmU
    Showed Labyrinth to my kids for the first time (11 and 9). They thought it was very weird. I love it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited April 2019
    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    Which path would he (the other one) choose, then take the opposite. Old conundrum.

    Ah is it a real old chestnut? OK, sorry. I heard it for the first time the other day - on Midsomer Murders oddly.

    Still, glad I know it now, since if I ever find myself in that position ...
    Nowadays you are more likely to be confronted by two liars. Which makes it easier still. Except that they’ll give you different answers.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    On topic, I’d make these distinctions between Newport West and the EU elections:

    1. I think there’s a mood change between the first and second Brexit delays. The first was still pitchable by TM as “getting on with the job despite a little local difficulty”. The second looks like a catastrophic failure to deliver.

    2. Every EU election has had a ring of either ‘proxy referendum’ or ‘screw you’ opportunity. Given few people expect the people they elect to be there for long, I expect that to be doubly so this time. I appreciate by-elections can play the same role, but I think most people still see Westminster as a more serious business.

    3. In either or both of those cases, Tory incompetence/division and Labour indecision/division will give voters ample excuse to justify looking elsewhere, especially if they want to cast a clear vote for leave (Brexit/UKIP/SDP), or remain (CHUK/LD/Green).

    4. The shiny new choices were either not standing or nowhere near as visible in Newport.

    5. Hamilton/Batten’s UKIP is not a proxy for Farage’s Brexit Party. As I’ve previously posited, Farage stays within the minimum geniality and maximum racism limits for a whole bunch of voters who wouldn’t touch Batten or Robinson with someone else’s bargepole.

    There’s probably enough core vote to stave off utter destruction, but I wouldn’t make plans to spend my MEP salary if I was below top slot for them on most regional lists!
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    I always lie. In fact, I am lying to you now! :)

    :-)

    You've probably heard it but -

    You reach a fork in the road, one way leads to paradise, the other to purgatory.

    There are 2 creatures standing there. One always tells the truth, the other always lies. You know this but you do not know which is which.

    You are allowed to ask one question (to one or the other, does not matter) the answer to which will tell you the fork to choose.

    What is the question?
    Which path would he (the other one) choose, then take the opposite. Old conundrum.
    Follow-up question: What if they refuse to answer questions about each other?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    MikeL said:

    I wonder how many people in line to receive these inheritances have just stopped for one moment and contemplated what a Corbyn Government might mean for them personally.

    It's one thing being happy to pay a bit more tax - I wonder how many people would be happy to lose a large chunk of a life changing inheritance.

    I suspect it's never occurred to many such people just how much they would be affected.
    He'd better keep his grubby socialist hands off my inheritance! I worked hard to have a rich grandparent!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Yet inheritance tax is probably the most progressive tax of all. And who, given the choice, would choose to pay tax when alive than when dead?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,855
    edited April 2019
    "Inheritance Boom" is an interesting way to describe the end of meritocracy and opportunity. Tax it all as income, and confiscate it if people try to avoid it. To compensate, increase the income tax personal allowance by whatever is raised (could it move it up to 15-20k?).

    (Only exemption would be for children under 21 which is pretty rare and tax free to £1m would be fine).
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,802

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    Which path would he (the other one) choose, then take the opposite. Old conundrum.

    Ah is it a real old chestnut? OK, sorry. I heard it for the first time the other day - on Midsomer Murders oddly.

    Still, glad I know it now, since if I ever find myself in that position ...
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ReFhu8KYbmU
    Go for the Monty Hall Paradox if you really want your mind blown.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    Yeah that non standard question generally produces larger leads for Unionists.

    Still if we get Indyref2 the UK government knows that question should be on the ballot papers.
    That would be a misleading question because it wrongly implies that the UK is a voluntary union of separate states.
    Well the Scots voted for it in 2014.
    The question in 2014 was something like 'Should Scotland be an independent country?' which seems fairer and more applicable here.

    Weirdly formed question on this latest poll, I must say.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,244
    Anorak said:

    The D&D solution

    Guard 1:ONE OF US SPEAKS NOTHING BUT TRUTH

    Guard 2:THE OTHER NOTHING BUT LIES

    Wizard: ok, i know this, we have to ask..

    Barbarian: *takes axe and kills the first guard*

    Wizard: WHAT THE HELL!

    Barbarian: *to remaining guard* is he dead

    Guard 2:NO

    barbarian: this one liar.

    :-)

    That is much better to be fair.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684

    Need some travel advice.

    I have three options to get to Barcelona, which airline should I fly with?

    i) EasyJet

    ii) Ryanair

    iii) Jet2

    Have you learned nothing in the last week?

    Go by train.

  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    Which path would he (the other one) choose, then take the opposite. Old conundrum.

    Ah is it a real old chestnut? OK, sorry. I heard it for the first time the other day - on Midsomer Murders oddly.

    Still, glad I know it now, since if I ever find myself in that position ...
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ReFhu8KYbmU
    Go for the Monty Hall Paradox if you really want your mind blown.
    Got asked that question in two of my Oxford maths interviews (ChristChurch & Pembroke). Luckily I'd read about it in the Racing Post sport section two weeks previously.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,244
    Great thanks. I should have known that if I saw it on Midsomer Murders it was highly unlikely to be cutting edge and original.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    Which path would he (the other one) choose, then take the opposite. Old conundrum.

    Ah is it a real old chestnut? OK, sorry. I heard it for the first time the other day - on Midsomer Murders oddly.

    Still, glad I know it now, since if I ever find myself in that position ...
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ReFhu8KYbmU
    Go for the Monty Hall Paradox if you really want your mind blown.
    Got asked that question in two of my Oxford maths interviews (ChristChurch & Pembroke). Luckily I'd read about it in the Racing Post sport section two weeks previously.
    Not Parade magazine?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    There's a rap version of this paradox. Sir Mix-A-Lot likes big butts and he cannot lie. His brother does not like big butts and he cannot tell the truth...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,244
    IanB2 said:

    Nowadays you are more likely to be confronted by two liars. Which makes it easier still. Except that they’ll give you different answers.

    Mmm. Imagine if the two you are confronted by are Boris Johnson and Liar McLieface. Stuffed.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    Need some travel advice.

    I have three options to get to Barcelona, which airline should I fly with?

    i) EasyJet

    ii) Ryanair

    iii) Jet2

    iv) BA

    v) KLM
    Are they direct?
    I have flown Jet2 and they were great, Easyjet also good , Ryanair would bemy last choice.
    Don’t forget veuling probably cheapest
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,244
    edited April 2019
    Sean_F said:

    In his History of the Jews, Paul Johnson made the point that ex-Jews and the children of Jewish converts were frequently involved in heretical Christian movements. He suggested that Jews had always been encouraged to debate and argue over their religion, and to challenge orthodoxy - and that spilled over into both Christianity, though converts, and then into all sorts of non-religious intellectual areas.

    Interesting. That type of thing is IMO always the probable answer when looking at other than physical 'racial' differences - they can be explained by cultural and environmental factors, historic and/or current.

    I think we are all the same if all of that is adjusted for. A great pity that it can't be.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,247
    Bernie showing that Biden isn't the only oldster who can do tone deaf...
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/apr/25/bernie-sanders-booed-she-the-people-women-of-color-2020
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    One could cite plenty of other examples such as the Tutsis, or American Liberians, or the Armenians in WWI.

    I don't have an issue with your "Jews as a powerful group" in the context you meant it.

    Just got me thinking (again) about the subject of antisemitism, which is of course topical.

    Another example. Lots of talk a few weeks ago on here about how the very powerful Irish Lobby in the US could torpedo our efforts to get a good trade deal with them if we were perceived to have stiffed the Republic on Brexit. Comments were not seen as in any way anti-Irish.

    Whereas talk of the Jewish Lobby, I venture, would meet with some disapproval.
    For me, there's a difference between talking about a group of identifiable Jewish or Irish people successfully acting together to advance shared interests, and implying that "(all) Jews are a powerful group". "Jewish lobby" is potentially problematic if there is no such defined group, but it's likely to be better than "The Jews".

    In short.. assigning almost any characteristic or behaviour to a group of people based on their race or religion (or sexual orientation or hair colour or whatever) is likely to cause widespread offence because it will almost certainly not be universally true. Even if there is a proven higher propensity, one still shouldn't generalise.

  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    Which path would he (the other one) choose, then take the opposite. Old conundrum.

    Ah is it a real old chestnut? OK, sorry. I heard it for the first time the other day - on Midsomer Murders oddly.

    Still, glad I know it now, since if I ever find myself in that position ...
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ReFhu8KYbmU
    Go for the Monty Hall Paradox if you really want your mind blown.
    Got asked that question in two of my Oxford maths interviews (ChristChurch & Pembroke). Luckily I'd read about it in the Racing Post sport section two weeks previously.
    My favorite is the "boy and girl problem", specifically what I like to call the 'Jason' variant.

    In Part 1, the question is:

    "Mr. Smith has two children. At least one of them is a boy. What is the probability that both children are boys?"

    And you have to reconcile your common sense, of 50%, with the correct answer, of 33%.

    Then in Part 2, the question is:

    Mr. Smith has two children. At least one of them is a boy. The boy's name is Jason. What is the probability that both children are boys?

    And you have to reconcile your answer of 33% with the fact the probability is now 49.99% or so....
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    "We will review progress at the end of May"

    A lot's hinging on when she goes
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Where are all the polls?
This discussion has been closed.