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Yes but the way he phrased it made it sound like a pity f*ckEl_Capitano said:Is there anyone here on PB who's planning to vote TIG at the Euro elections?
I know we're an atypical bunch, but you'd expect there to be at least one putative TIGger in our ranks.
edit: ah, I see kle4 posted at the same time0 -
Not at all - no more likely than Oswald Mosley was in the 1930s. The most recent Yougov poll has his party dropping back to 23 %. In 2014 UKIP polled 26.6% - less than a year later at the 2015 GE their vote share was 12.6%. Far fewer people take them seriously at meanigful national elections - a message already conveyed very clearly by the polls.HYUFD said:
Good value at the momentSandpit said:
Farage is 36 on Betfair to be next PM.HYUFD said:
As is the country as if we never leave the EU the prospect of Farage becoming PM cannot be dismissedwilliamglenn said:0 -
It beat the 33% of the electorate the 1979 Yes vote received.AndyJS said:
I thought the 1997 Scottish referendum might have got 50% but in fact it was only 45%: 74% on a 60% turnout.Sean_F said:If no constitutional change were to take place without 50% of the electorate voting in favour, no constitutional change would take place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Scottish_devolution_referendum0 -
Nobody ever expected the SNP landslide in 2015 or Trump to win in 2016 or Corbyn to get a hung parliament in 2017 either, if people feel cheated by the establishment the lessen of the last 3 years is they will lose the ballot box to protestBig_G_NorthWales said:
What are you onHYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives UKIP (or the Brexit Party in this case) 290 seats if Farage repeats his Yougov European elections polling at a general election and Labour gets 22% and the Tories 15%. Add in the 10 for the DUP and that produces 300 seats, just needs 10 or 20 more and Farage certainly would be PMFoxy said:
Oh yes it can. He cannot get elected by FPTP in seven goes, and his gimps are even less succesful.HYUFD said:
As is the country as if we never leave the EU the prospect of Farage becoming PM cannot be dismissedwilliamglenn said:
Leading the Euro polls at 27% does not translate to PM.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=15&LAB=22&LIB=9&UKIP=27&Green=7&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=20170 -
As Sean_F pointed out the top 10% wealthiest areas voted Remain, are you disputing this or are you just having a go because you don’t like it being pointed out that Remainers are on the side of the most wealthy?Benpointer said:
Brokenwheel can exclude Sevenoaks though because it doesn't fit with his analysis.HYUFD said:
Sevenoaks is also in Kent and is actually slightly wealthier than Tunbridge Wells and narrowly voted Leavebrokenwheel said:
No, that’s not the assertion. This false narrative has been seeping in from the Remain camp that actually Leave is some Machiavellian scheme of the most well-off to screw over the poor.viewcode said:
Fair point, but the explanation is that *fewer than expected* posh people voted remain, not *None*brokenwheel said:
Can you explain then why the wealthiest Tory shires of the M4 and M3 corridors voted Remain?nico67 said:The worn out media narrative of the Leave vote.
A cry for help from left behind Communities , really if that was the case I’d have been a lot more accepting of the result .
Even though they chose to take their anger out on the wrong thing . The government really should have been the cause of their anger .
A big part of the Leave vote was due to well off Tories in the Shires , the same group who want a no deal and really have little to lose whilst fxcking everyone else .
After all Cameron, Osborne etc are entirely representative of the wealthy Tory patrician class, and they are liberal remainers.
Or how if the Leave vote was mostly wealthy Tories, why so few went to university?
Maybe you are talking bollocks.
The truth is precisely the opposite. The places with the greatest concentrations of wealth voted Remain.
It’s blatant. Take a look at Kent, a very leavey place. The wealthiest part is Tunbridge Wells, it’s the destination of choice for City workers for example. Just as true-blue Tory as elsewhere, yet it’s the only part of the county to vote Remain.0 -
Not how it is looking on the media coverage and this has been going on every weekend for months. Added into the mix is the anger at wealthy donations of millions to Notre Dame.stodge said:
Slightly hyperbolic in all honesty. They've arrested 100 in Paris - we've arrested 800 in the Extinction Rebellion protests. Yes, it's all very dramatic but they don't know the 99% of Paris which had a normal Saturday.Big_G_NorthWales said:And in other news France and Macron look in serious trouble
I'm not sure claiming France is "in serious trouble" after a round of the usual French public disorder is correct - it's France, it's how it works there.
This is a very serious disorder problem for Macron0 -
In effect the Brexit Party would have replaced the Conservative Party as the main non-Labour political party. With just 4 seats, the Conservatives would be much worse than the LDs in 2015 and would presumably have to merge with the Brexit Party.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives UKIP (or the Brexit Party in this case) 290 seats if Farage repeats his Yougov European elections polling at a general election and Labour gets 22% and the Tories 15%. Add in the 10 for the DUP and that produces 300 seats, just needs 10 or 20 more and Farage certainly would be PM
Putting that to one side, what are the Brexit Party's policies apart from "delivering Brexit" which presumably means leaving without a Deal?0 -
I think it’s policy - Khan has come under criticism for increasing the percentage of social housing required (condition of planning consent) because it’s made some designs uneconomicNickPalmer said:
That's a very interesting comment, and I think entirely right. House prices are the big issue here, with even wealthy families saying their kids have to leave the area altogether when they leave home.another_richard said:
I have a theory that housing affordability is a key factor.
In Surrey house prices must lead to high inequality, lower social mobility and lower immigration thus keeping a solid Labour council estate vote.
Whereas the cheap housing of much of Eastern England spreads home ownership further down the socioeconomic ladder and also encourages immigration thus creating a more right-wing working class vote.
The source of the wealth for the posh houses must be different between Surrey and Broxtowe with the former being predominantly City based but a much more public sector element in Broxtowe.
The Council local plan is completely brazen about it - they concede there is indeed a serious shortage of affordable housing, but they have explicitly decided not to address it, because if they did then "the usual formula" (of only a fifth of housing being "affordable") would mean they had to build lots more non-affordable housing too, and that would mean too much house-building. Whether this "usual formula" is a legal requirement or just something they've made up I can't make out - does anyone know?0 -
Well I lack many options with Adonis on the Labour list! The LDs makes more sense but they'll survive missing out, the Tiggers wouldn't. And voting Tory would be even more out of pity.Charles said:
Yes but the way he phrased it made it sound like a pity f*ckEl_Capitano said:Is there anyone here on PB who's planning to vote TIG at the Euro elections?
I know we're an atypical bunch, but you'd expect there to be at least one putative TIGger in our ranks.
edit: ah, I see kle4 posted at the same time0 -
I am not fussed really. I think it was more an age thing than wealth.brokenwheel said:
As Sean_F pointed out the top 10% wealthiest areas voted heavily Remain, are you disputing this or are you just having a go because you don’t like it being pointed out that Remainers are on the side of the most wealthy?Benpointer said:
Brokenwheel can exclude Sevenoaks though because it doesn't fit with his analysis.HYUFD said:
Sevenoaks is also in Kent and is actually slightly wealthier than Tunbridge Wells and narrowly voted Leavebrokenwheel said:
No, that’s not the assertion. This false narrative has been seeping in from the Remain camp that actually Leave is some Machiavellian scheme of the most well-off to screw over the poor.viewcode said:
Fair point, but the explanation is that *fewer than expected* posh people voted remain, not *None*brokenwheel said:
Can you explain then why the wealthiest Tory shires of the M4 and M3 corridors voted Remain?nico67 said:The worn out media narrative of the Leave vote.
A cry for help from left behind Communities , really if that was the case I’d have been a lot more accepting of the result .
Even though they chose to take their anger out on the wrong thing . The government really should have been the cause of their anger .
A big part of the Leave vote was due to well off Tories in the Shires , the same group who want a no deal and really have little to lose whilst fxcking everyone else .
After all Cameron, Osborne etc are entirely representative of the wealthy Tory patrician class, and they are liberal remainers.
Or how if the Leave vote was mostly wealthy Tories, why so few went to university?
Maybe you are talking bollocks.
The truth is precisely the opposite. The places with the greatest concentrations of wealth voted Remain.
It’s blatant. Take a look at Kent, a very leavey place. The wealthiest part is Tunbridge Wells, it’s the destination of choice for City workers for example. Just as true-blue Tory as elsewhere, yet it’s the only part of the county to vote Remain.0 -
We’re in as bad a state, possibly worse.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not how it is looking on the media coverage and this has been going on every weekend for months. Added into the mix is the anger at wealthy donations of millions to Notre Dame.stodge said:
Slightly hyperbolic in all honesty. They've arrested 100 in Paris - we've arrested 800 in the Extinction Rebellion protests. Yes, it's all very dramatic but they don't know the 99% of Paris which had a normal Saturday.Big_G_NorthWales said:And in other news France and Macron look in serious trouble
I'm not sure claiming France is "in serious trouble" after a round of the usual French public disorder is correct - it's France, it's how it works there.
This is a very serious disorder problem for Macron0 -
When did Mosley ever get near winning a national election as Farage did in 2014 or even getting 12% at a general election as UKIP did in 2015? If Brexit is not delivered and the Tories do not replace May with a Leaver the Leave vote will surge to the Brexit Partyjustin124 said:
Not at all - no more likely than Oswald Mosley was in the 1930s. The most recent Yougov poll has his party dropping back to 23 %. In 2014 UKIP polled 26.6% - less than a year later at the 2015 GE their vote share was 12.6%. Far fewer people take them seriously at meanigful national elections - a message already conveyed very clearly by the polls.HYUFD said:
Good value at the momentSandpit said:
Farage is 36 on Betfair to be next PM.HYUFD said:
As is the country as if we never leave the EU the prospect of Farage becoming PM cannot be dismissedwilliamglenn said:0 -
I thought his polling had rebounded and the protests nothing as serious as when they first emerged?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not how it is looking on the media coverage and this has been going on every weekend for months. Added into the mix is the anger at wealthy donations of millions to Notre Dame.stodge said:
Slightly hyperbolic in all honesty. They've arrested 100 in Paris - we've arrested 800 in the Extinction Rebellion protests. Yes, it's all very dramatic but they don't know the 99% of Paris which had a normal Saturday.Big_G_NorthWales said:And in other news France and Macron look in serious trouble
I'm not sure claiming France is "in serious trouble" after a round of the usual French public disorder is correct - it's France, it's how it works there.
This is a very serious disorder problem for Macron0 -
Do you ever listen to yourself. You are in danger of losing credibilityHYUFD said:
Nobody ever expected the SNP landslide in 2015 or Trump to win in 2016 or Corbyn to get a hung parliament in 2017 either, if people feel cheated by the establishment the lessen of the last 3 years is they will lose the ballot box to protestBig_G_NorthWales said:
What are you onHYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives UKIP (or the Brexit Party in this case) 290 seats if Farage repeats his Yougov European elections polling at a general election and Labour gets 22% and the Tories 15%. Add in the 10 for the DUP and that produces 300 seats, just needs 10 or 20 more and Farage certainly would be PMFoxy said:
Oh yes it can. He cannot get elected by FPTP in seven goes, and his gimps are even less succesful.HYUFD said:
As is the country as if we never leave the EU the prospect of Farage becoming PM cannot be dismissedwilliamglenn said:
Leading the Euro polls at 27% does not translate to PM.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=15&LAB=22&LIB=9&UKIP=27&Green=7&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=20170 -
They intensified this weekend as the protestors express fury at the Notre Dame donationskle4 said:
I thought his polling had rebounded and the protests nothing as serious as when they first emerged?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not how it is looking on the media coverage and this has been going on every weekend for months. Added into the mix is the anger at wealthy donations of millions to Notre Dame.stodge said:
Slightly hyperbolic in all honesty. They've arrested 100 in Paris - we've arrested 800 in the Extinction Rebellion protests. Yes, it's all very dramatic but they don't know the 99% of Paris which had a normal Saturday.Big_G_NorthWales said:And in other news France and Macron look in serious trouble
I'm not sure claiming France is "in serious trouble" after a round of the usual French public disorder is correct - it's France, it's how it works there.
This is a very serious disorder problem for Macron0 -
Average price of a semi detached property in Sevenoaks is over £500 000 and a detached house over £1 million. In Tunbridge Wells the average semi detached costs £469 000 and the average detached house £819 000brokenwheel said:
Are you talking about the whole borough though? I would be really surprised if that’s true any more.HYUFD said:
Sevenoaks is also in Kent and is actually slightly wealthier than Tunbridge Wells and narrowly voted Leavebrokenwheel said:
No, that’s not the assertion. This false narrative has been seeping in from the Remain camp that actually Leave is some Machiavellian scheme of the most well-off to screw over the poor.viewcode said:
Fair point, but the explanation is that *fewer than expected* posh people voted remain, not *None*brokenwheel said:
Can you explain then why the wealthiest Tory shires of the M4 and M3 corridors voted Remain?nico67 said:The worn out media narrative of the Leave vote.
A cry for help from left behind Communities , really if that was the case I’d have been a lot more accepting of the result .
Even though they chose to take their anger out on the wrong thing . The government really should have been the cause of their anger .
A big part of the Leave vote was due to well off Tories in the Shires , the same group who want a no deal and really have little to lose whilst fxcking everyone else .
After all Cameron, Osborne etc are entirely representative of the wealthy Tory patrician class, and they are liberal remainers.
Or how if the Leave vote was mostly wealthy Tories, why so few went to university?
Maybe you are talking bollocks.
The truth is precisely the opposite. The places with the greatest concentrations of wealth voted Remain.
It’s blatant. Take a look at Kent, a very leavey place. The wealthiest part is Tunbridge Wells, it’s the destination of choice for City workers for example. Just as true-blue Tory as elsewhere, yet it’s the only part of the county to vote Remain.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property/Sevenoaks.html0 -
But as there was a minimum threshold the 'will of (33% of) the people' was not enough to force the change.Sunil_Prasannan said:
It beat the 33% of the electorate the 1979 Yes vote received.AndyJS said:
I thought the 1997 Scottish referendum might have got 50% but in fact it was only 45%: 74% on a 60% turnout.Sean_F said:If no constitutional change were to take place without 50% of the electorate voting in favour, no constitutional change would take place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Scottish_devolution_referendum0 -
As I said up thread, I think having a lot of wealth correlated strongly with a Remain vote, as opposed to being middle class. Places like Cities of Westminster & London, Chelsea & Fulham, Edinburgh South, Kensington, Putney, which voted very heavily Remain are immensely wealthy. Seats like Aldridge Brownhills, Old Bexley & Sidcup, Rayleigh & Wickford, Gillingham & Rainham which voted very heavily Leave are well off, rather than very rich.AndyJS said:
Yes I think the best indicators at the EU referendum were qualifications, age and ethnicity. Wealth was not as important as those three. Epping Forest for instance is pretty wealthy but voted Leave by a convincing margin. There was also a Merseyside effect where Liverpool and the surrounding areas were more Remain than you'd expect from demographics.HYUFD said:
Maybe but it is still wealthier, I do agree though that the percentage of graduates in am area is a better guide to whether it voted Remain or Leave than average wealth, the same was true in the US in determining whether a state was likely to have voted for Hillary or TrumpAndyJS said:
It's wealthier but it may have slightly fewer people with higher educational qualifications.HYUFD said:
Sevenoaks is also in Kent and is actually slightly wealthier than Tunbridge Wells and narrowly voted Leavebrokenwheel said:
No, that’s not the assertion. This false narrative has been seeping in from the Remain camp that actually Leave is some Machiavellian schemeviewcode said:
Fair point, but the explanation is that *fewer than expected* posh people voted remain, not *None*brokenwheel said:
Can you explain then why the wealthiest Tory shires of the M4 and M3 corridors voted Remain?nico67 said:The worn out media narrative of the Leave vote.
A cry for help from left behind Communities , really if that was the case I’d have been a lot more accepting of the result .
Even though they chose to take their anger out on the wrong thing . The government really should have been the cause of their anger .
A big part of the Leave vote was due to well off Tories in the Shires , the same group who want a no deal and really have little to lose whilst fxcking everyone else .
After all Cameron, Osborne etc are entirely representative of the wealthy Tory patrician class, and they are liberal remainers.
Or how if the Leave vote was mostly wealthy Tories, why so few went to university?
Maybe you are talking bollocks.
It’s blatant. Take a look at Kent, a very leavey place0 -
Have you been canvassing over the last few weeks Big G as I have? If not may I politely suggest you do not realise how angry many Leavers areBig_G_NorthWales said:
Do you ever listen to yourself. You are in danger of losing credibilityHYUFD said:
Nobody ever expected the SNP landslide in 2015 or Trump to win in 2016 or Corbyn to get a hung parliament in 2017 either, if people feel cheated by the establishment the lessen of the last 3 years is they will lose the ballot box to protestBig_G_NorthWales said:
What are you onHYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives UKIP (or the Brexit Party in this case) 290 seats if Farage repeats his Yougov European elections polling at a general election and Labour gets 22% and the Tories 15%. Add in the 10 for the DUP and that produces 300 seats, just needs 10 or 20 more and Farage certainly would be PMFoxy said:
Oh yes it can. He cannot get elected by FPTP in seven goes, and his gimps are even less succesful.HYUFD said:
As is the country as if we never leave the EU the prospect of Farage becoming PM cannot be dismissedwilliamglenn said:
Leading the Euro polls at 27% does not translate to PM.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=15&LAB=22&LIB=9&UKIP=27&Green=7&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=20170 -
I do agree and I cannot see a way out at present but Farage PM is just a nonsense and pure fantasyJonathan said:
We’re in as bad a state, possibly worse.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not how it is looking on the media coverage and this has been going on every weekend for months. Added into the mix is the anger at wealthy donations of millions to Notre Dame.stodge said:
Slightly hyperbolic in all honesty. They've arrested 100 in Paris - we've arrested 800 in the Extinction Rebellion protests. Yes, it's all very dramatic but they don't know the 99% of Paris which had a normal Saturday.Big_G_NorthWales said:And in other news France and Macron look in serious trouble
I'm not sure claiming France is "in serious trouble" after a round of the usual French public disorder is correct - it's France, it's how it works there.
This is a very serious disorder problem for Macron0 -
Your first paragraph is correct, the Tories would face the fate of the Progressive Conservatives in Canada in 1993 who went from 156 seats to just 2 overnight and were overtaken by the right-wing Reform Party as the main Canada wide alternative to the Liberals.stodge said:
In effect the Brexit Party would have replaced the Conservative Party as the main non-Labour political party. With just 4 seats, the Conservatives would be much worse than the LDs in 2015 and would presumably have to merge with the Brexit Party.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives UKIP (or the Brexit Party in this case) 290 seats if Farage repeats his Yougov European elections polling at a general election and Labour gets 22% and the Tories 15%. Add in the 10 for the DUP and that produces 300 seats, just needs 10 or 20 more and Farage certainly would be PM
Putting that to one side, what are the Brexit Party's policies apart from "delivering Brexit" which presumably means leaving without a Deal?
The Progressive Conservatives merged with the Reform Party's successor, the Alliance in 2003 to form the Conservative Party of Canada which won the 2006 general election under Stephen Harper.
For now as long as we are in the EU backing hard Brexit is enough for the Brexit Party0 -
Tories are the No deal Brexit party. Its mps are just storing up problems by not recognising that. If they think the interests of the country do not allow that they need to push on and see their own leadership Hope's and the party's as well fail.williamglenn said:0 -
Unusually, I am sort of with HYUFD on this. There is a danger here.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you ever listen to yourself. You are in danger of losing credibilityHYUFD said:
Nobody ever expected the SNP landslide in 2015 or Trump to win in 2016 or Corbyn to get a hung parliament in 2017 either, if people feel cheated by the establishment the lessen of the last 3 years is they will lose the ballot box to protestBig_G_NorthWales said:
What are you onHYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives UKIP (or the Brexit Party in this case) 290 seats if Farage repeats his Yougov European elections polling at a general election and Labour gets 22% and the Tories 15%. Add in the 10 for the DUP and that produces 300 seats, just needs 10 or 20 more and Farage certainly would be PMFoxy said:
Oh yes it can. He cannot get elected by FPTP in seven goes, and his gimps are even less succesful.HYUFD said:
As is the country as if we never leave the EU the prospect of Farage becoming PM cannot be dismissedwilliamglenn said:
Leading the Euro polls at 27% does not translate to PM.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=15&LAB=22&LIB=9&UKIP=27&Green=7&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017
Take a look at the sequence of five German elections from 1928 to March 1933 on Wikipedia if you want to see how badly wrong things can go.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1928_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1930_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_1932_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_1932_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1933_German_federal_election
Do I think it at all likely Farage could ever be PM? No.
Is it possible? Sadly, yes.0 -
Their own career prospectstwistedfirestopper3 said:I'll ask the question again....what are Change UK actually proposing to change?
0 -
It still punctures the idea that the working class is solid for leave. As does Brighton if you know it - the trendy bit by the station is fun but isn't representative.brokenwheel said:HYUFD said:
Tunbridge Wells voted Remain, Crawley voted LeaveRecidivist said:
Well there is also the fact that Liverpool voted remain while Chichester voted leave. And nobody who knows the local area would suggest that remain voting Brighton was wealthier than leave voting Tunbridge Wells. Or that remain voting Crawley is richer than the leave voting surroundings.brokenwheel said:
Can you explain then why the wealthiest Tory shires of the M4 and M3 corridors voted Remain?nico67 said:The worn out media narrative of the Leave vote.
A cry for help from left behind Communities , really if that was the case I’d have been a lot more accepting of the result .
Even though they chose to take their anger out on the wrong thing . The government really should have been the cause of their anger .
A big part of the Leave vote was due to well off Tories in the Shires , the same group who want a no deal and really have little to lose whilst fxcking everyone else .
After all Cameron, Osborne etc are entirely representative of the wealthy Tory patrician class, and they are liberal remainers.
Or how if the Leave vote was mostly wealthy Tories, why so few went to university?
Maybe you are talking bollocks.
This idea that the working class is behind leave is a complete crock. It's just an age thing. Sure a lot of working class people support leave - just not the ones who are still actually doing any work.
Quite.
As for Liverpool, it’s an exception that proves the rule. Why did no areas outside Merseyside with similar demographics vote Remain?0 -
Thankfully, we don't have PR.Benpointer said:
Unusually, I am sort of with HYUFD on this. There is a danger here.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you ever listen to yourself. You are in danger of losing credibilityHYUFD said:
Nobody ever expected the SNP landslide in 2015 or Trump to win in 2016 or Corbyn to get a hung parliament in 2017 either, if people feel cheated by the establishment the lessen of the last 3 years is they will lose the ballot box to protestBig_G_NorthWales said:
What are you onHYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives UKIP (or the Brexit Party in this case) 290 seats if Farage repeats his Yougov European elections polling at a general election and Labour gets 22% and the Tories 15%. Add in the 10 for the DUP and that produces 300 seats, just needs 10 or 20 more and Farage certainly would be PMFoxy said:
Oh yes it can. He cannot get elected by FPTP in seven goes, and his gimps are even less succesful.HYUFD said:
As is the country as if we never leave the EU the prospect of Farage becoming PM cannot be dismissedwilliamglenn said:
Leading the Euro polls at 27% does not translate to PM.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=15&LAB=22&LIB=9&UKIP=27&Green=7&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017
Take a look at the sequence of five German elections from 1928 to March 1933 on Wikipedia if you want to see how badly wrong things can go.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1928_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1930_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_1932_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_1932_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1933_German_federal_election
Do I think it at all likely Farage could ever be PM? No.
Is it possible? Sadly, yes.
0 -
Frankly they only have themselves to blame but to talk Farage as PM is utter nonsenseHYUFD said:
Have you been canvassing over the last few weeks Big G as I have? If not may I politely suggest you do not realise how angry many Leavers areBig_G_NorthWales said:
Do you ever listen to yourself. You are in danger of losing credibilityHYUFD said:
Nobody ever expected the SNP landslide in 2015 or Trump to win in 2016 or Corbyn to get a hung parliament in 2017 either, if people feel cheated by the establishment the lessen of the last 3 years is they will lose the ballot box to protestBig_G_NorthWales said:
What are you onHYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives UKIP (or the Brexit Party in this case) 290 seats if Farage repeats his Yougov European elections polling at a general election and Labour gets 22% and the Tories 15%. Add in the 10 for the DUP and that produces 300 seats, just needs 10 or 20 more and Farage certainly would be PMFoxy said:
Oh yes it can. He cannot get elected by FPTP in seven goes, and his gimps are even less succesful.HYUFD said:
As is the country as if we never leave the EU the prospect of Farage becoming PM cannot be dismissedwilliamglenn said:
Leading the Euro polls at 27% does not translate to PM.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=15&LAB=22&LIB=9&UKIP=27&Green=7&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=20170 -
As I was saying...williamglenn said:0 -
As I thought you are talking about the towns which are a fraction of pop, not the borough. Borough of Sevenoaks has likely more leavey areas like Swanley. Borough of Tunbridge Wells is mostly wealthy rural on the other hand.HYUFD said:
Average price of a semi detached property in Sevenoaks is over £500 000 and a detached house over £1 million. In Tunbridge Wells the average semi detached costs £469 000 and the average detached house £819 000brokenwheel said:
Are you talking about the whole borough though? I would be really surprised if that’s true any more.HYUFD said:
Sevenoaks is also in Kent and is actually slightly wealthier than Tunbridge Wells and narrowly voted Leavebrokenwheel said:
No, that’s not the assertion. This false narrative has been seeping in from the Remain camp that actually Leave is some Machiavellian scheme of the most well-off to screw over the poor.viewcode said:
Fair point, but the explanation is that *fewer than expected* posh people voted remain, not *None*brokenwheel said:
Can you explain then why the wealthiest Tory shires of the M4 and M3 corridors voted Remain?nico67 said:The worn out media narrative of the Leave vote.
A cry for help from left behind Communities , really if that was the case I’d have been a lot more accepting of the result .
Even though they chose to take their anger out on the wrong thing . The government really should have been the cause of their anger .
A big part of the Leave vote was due to well off Tories in the Shires , the same group who want a no deal and really have little to lose whilst fxcking everyone else .
After all Cameron, Osborne etc are entirely representative of the wealthy Tory patrician class, and they are liberal remainers.
Or how if the Leave vote was mostly wealthy Tories, why so few went to university?
Maybe you are talking bollocks.
The truth is precisely the opposite. The places with the greatest concentrations of wealth voted Remain.
It’s blatant. Take a look at Kent, a very leavey place. The wealthiest part is Tunbridge Wells, it’s the destination of choice for City workers for example. Just as true-blue Tory as elsewhere, yet it’s the only part of the county to vote Remain.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property/Sevenoaks.html0 -
you can also look at France. The French voted against the EU constitution when the socialists were in Government. When Sarkozy came to power he waved through the Lisbon Treaty. 10 years later the Traditional right and left are nowhere and they have a new party in power and Le Pen at their heels.Benpointer said:
Unusually, I am sort of with HYUFD on this. There is a danger here.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you ever listen to yourself. You are in danger of losing credibilityHYUFD said:
Nobody ever expected the SNP landslide in 2015 or Trump to win in 2016 or Corbyn to get a hung parliament in 2017 either, if people feel cheated by the establishment the lessen of the last 3 years is they will lose the ballot box to protestBig_G_NorthWales said:
What are you onHYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives UKIP (or the Brexit Party in this case) 290 seats if Farage repeats his Yougov European elections polling at a general election and Labour gets 22% and the Tories 15%. Add in the 10 for the DUP and that produces 300 seats, just needs 10 or 20 more and Farage certainly would be PMFoxy said:
Oh yes it can. He cannot get elected by FPTP in seven goes, and his gimps are even less succesful.HYUFD said:
As is the country as if we never leave the EU the prospect of Farage becoming PM cannot be dismissedwilliamglenn said:
Leading the Euro polls at 27% does not translate to PM.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=15&LAB=22&LIB=9&UKIP=27&Green=7&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017
Take a look at the sequence of five German elections from 1928 to March 1933 on Wikipedia if you want to see how badly wrong things can go.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1928_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1930_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_1932_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_1932_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1933_German_federal_election
Do I think it at all likely Farage could ever be PM? No.
Is it possible? Sadly, yes.
In the UK that would be like TIG in Government and UKIP as the next party.0 -
Unfair- what they've chosen to do us very hard and was very likely to not improve their prospects at all, even if they were facing deselectionCharles said:
Their own career prospectstwistedfirestopper3 said:I'll ask the question again....what are Change UK actually proposing to change?
0 -
60% do not support FarageHYUFD said:
As I was saying...williamglenn said:0 -
I can't see the full article, but a note of caution: I dunno about the Tories, but Labour advice to MPs and councillors was never to respond to surveys. The effect of this (IMO misguided) policy is that only the most disaffected ones respond. Has JohnO sent them his view, for instance?williamglenn said:0 -
You need only look at Canada, Italy, France, Holland, Greece, for examples of long-standing parties of government seeing their support swiftly disappear (or the Liberals after 1918). The Conservative and Labour parties will disappear one day.Benpointer said:
Unusually, I am sort of with HYUFD on this. There is a danger here.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you ever listen to yourself. You are in danger of losing credibilityHYUFD said:
Nobody ever expected the SNP landslide in 2015 or Trump to win in 2016 or Corbyn to get a hung parliament in 2017 either, if people feel cheated by the establishment the lessen of the last 3 years is they will lose the ballot box to protestBig_G_NorthWales said:
What are you onHYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives UKIP (or the Brexit Party in this case) 290 seats if Farage repeats his Yougov European elections polling at a general election and Labour gets 22% and the Tories 15%. Add in the 10 for the DUP and that produces 300 seats, just needs 10 or 20 more and Farage certainly would be PMFoxy said:
Oh yes it can. He cannot get elected by FPTP in seven goes, and his gimps are even less succesful.HYUFD said:
As is the country as if we never leave the EU the prospect of Farage becoming PM cannot be dismissedwilliamglenn said:
Leading the Euro polls at 27% does not translate to PM.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=15&LAB=22&LIB=9&UKIP=27&Green=7&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017
Take a look at the sequence of five German elections from 1928 to March 1933 on Wikipedia if you want to see how badly wrong things can go.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1928_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1930_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_1932_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_1932_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1933_German_federal_election
Do I think it at all likely Farage could ever be PM? No.
Is it possible? Sadly, yes.0 -
Deleted0
-
I am pretty sanguine about that... it's the rise of a populist alternative that worries me.Sean_F said:
You need only look at Canada, Italy, France, Holland, Greece, for examples of long-standing parties of government seeing their support swiftly disappear (or the Liberals after 1918). The Conservative and Labour parties will disappear one day.Benpointer said:
Unusually, I am sort of with HYUFD on this. There is a danger here.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you ever listen to yourself. You are in danger of losing credibilityHYUFD said:
Nobody ever expected the SNP landslide in 2015 or Trump to win in 2016 or Corbyn to get a hung parliament in 2017 either, if people feel cheated by the establishment the lessen of the last 3 years is they will lose the ballot box to protestBig_G_NorthWales said:
What are you onHYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives UKIP (or the Brexit Party in this case) 290 seats if Farage repeats his Yougov European elections polling at a general election and Labour gets 22% and the Tories 15%. Add in the 10 for the DUP and that produces 300 seats, just needs 10 or 20 more and Farage certainly would be PMFoxy said:
Oh yes it can. He cannot get elected by FPTP in seven goes, and his gimps are even less succesful.HYUFD said:
As is the country as if we never leave the EU the prospect of Farage becoming PM cannot be dismissedwilliamglenn said:
Leading the Euro polls at 27% does not translate to PM.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=15&LAB=22&LIB=9&UKIP=27&Green=7&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017
Take a look at the sequence of five German elections from 1928 to March 1933 on Wikipedia if you want to see how badly wrong things can go.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1928_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1930_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_1932_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_1932_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1933_German_federal_election
Do I think it at all likely Farage could ever be PM? No.
Is it possible? Sadly, yes.0 -
Sorry Big G but that really is burying your head in the sand. When 40% of your own elected party representatives are willing to state openly that they back the leader of another party over their own you are in a whole heap of trouble.Big_G_NorthWales said:
60% do not support FarageHYUFD said:
As I was saying...williamglenn said:0 -
I've never read the Tory Party's rule book, but presumably it requires members to support the party at elections? Shouldn't any candidate openly supporting another would be liable to be thrown out?williamglenn said:0 -
If it is true that 40% of Tory councillors really are Brexit Party, then they should leave the party. Walk away and face the long term consequences of not being in a major, historical party.Big_G_NorthWales said:
60% do not support FarageHYUFD said:
As I was saying...williamglenn said:
0 -
I think NickP's point questioning how many councillors responded is relevant.Richard_Tyndall said:
Sorry Big G but that really is burying your head in the sand. When 40% of your own elected party representatives are willing to state openly that they back the leader of another party over their own you are in a whole heap of trouble.Big_G_NorthWales said:
60% do not support FarageHYUFD said:
As I was saying...williamglenn said:0 -
And that is why Brexit is going to fail. Brexiteers had their chance and have blown itRichard_Tyndall said:
Sorry Big G but that really is burying your head in the sand. When 40% of your own elected party representatives are willing to state openly that they back the leader of another party over their own you are in a whole heap of trouble.Big_G_NorthWales said:
60% do not support FarageHYUFD said:
As I was saying...williamglenn said:0 -
The Brexit virus is even worse than we thought.0
-
Is it possible that this weekend of staring into the pit of doom from across the UK from the canvassers for Tory party will final persuade the idiots of ERG to pass the bloody WA and save their arguments for the next stage?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Frankly they only have themselves to blame but to talk Farage as PM is utter nonsenseHYUFD said:
Have you been canvassing over the last few weeks Big G as I have? If not may I politely suggest you do not realise how angry many Leavers areBig_G_NorthWales said:
Do you ever listen to yourself. You are in danger of losing credibilityHYUFD said:
Nobody ever expected the SNP landslide in 2015 or Trump to win in 2016 or Corbyn to get a hung parliament in 2017 either, if people feel cheated by the establishment the lessen of the last 3 years is they will lose the ballot box to protestBig_G_NorthWales said:
What are you onHYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives UKIP (or the Brexit Party in this case) 290 seats if Farage repeats his Yougov European elections polling at a general election and Labour gets 22% and the Tories 15%. Add in the 10 for the DUP and that produces 300 seats, just needs 10 or 20 more and Farage certainly would be PMFoxy said:
Oh yes it can. He cannot get elected by FPTP in seven goes, and his gimps are even less succesful.HYUFD said:
As is the country as if we never leave the EU the prospect of Farage becoming PM cannot be dismissedwilliamglenn said:
Leading the Euro polls at 27% does not translate to PM.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=15&LAB=22&LIB=9&UKIP=27&Green=7&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=20170 -
UKIP votes fell by about half a million between 2014 and 2015.justin124 said:
Not at all - no more likely than Oswald Mosley was in the 1930s. The most recent Yougov poll has his party dropping back to 23 %. In 2014 UKIP polled 26.6% - less than a year later at the 2015 GE their vote share was 12.6%. Far fewer people take them seriously at meanigful national elections - a message already conveyed very clearly by the polls.HYUFD said:
Good value at the momentSandpit said:
Farage is 36 on Betfair to be next PM.HYUFD said:
As is the country as if we never leave the EU the prospect of Farage becoming PM cannot be dismissedwilliamglenn said:
Just everyone else not obsessed about Europe turned up to vote.0 -
That is certainly the case in the Labour. A public expression of support for an opposition candidate results in instant expulsion.Recidivist said:
I've never read the Tory Party's rule book, but presumably it requires members to support the party at elections? Shouldn't any candidate openly supporting another would be liable to be thrown out?williamglenn said:0 -
Norottenborough said:
Is it possible that this weekend of staring into the pit of doom from across the UK from the canvassers for Tory party will final persuade the idiots of ERG to pass the bloody WA and save their arguments for the next stage?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Frankly they only have themselves to blame but to talk Farage as PM is utter nonsenseHYUFD said:
Have you been canvassing over the last few weeks Big G as I have? If not may I politely suggest you do not realise how angry many Leavers areBig_G_NorthWales said:
Do you ever listen to yourself. You are in danger of losing credibilityHYUFD said:
Nobody ever expected the SNP landslide in 2015 or Trump to win in 2016 or Corbyn to get a hung parliament in 2017 either, if people feel cheated by the establishment the lessen of the last 3 years is they will lose the ballot box to protestBig_G_NorthWales said:
What are you onHYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives UKIP (or the Brexit Party in this case) 290 seats if Farage repeats his Yougov European elections polling at a general election and Labour gets 22% and the Tories 15%. Add in the 10 for the DUP and that produces 300 seats, just needs 10 or 20 more and Farage certainly would be PMFoxy said:
Oh yes it can. He cannot get elected by FPTP in seven goes, and his gimps are even less succesful.HYUFD said:
As is the country as if we never leave the EU the prospect of Farage becoming PM cannot be dismissedwilliamglenn said:
Leading the Euro polls at 27% does not translate to PM.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=15&LAB=22&LIB=9&UKIP=27&Green=7&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=20170 -
I doubt it sadlyrottenborough said:
Is it possible that this weekend of staring into the pit of doom from across the UK from the canvassers for Tory party will final persuade the idiots of ERG to pass the bloody WA and save their arguments for the next stage?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Frankly they only have themselves to blame but to talk Farage as PM is utter nonsenseHYUFD said:
Have you been canvassing over the last few weeks Big G as I have? If not may I politely suggest you do not realise how angry many Leavers areBig_G_NorthWales said:
Do you ever listen to yourself. You are in danger of losing credibilityHYUFD said:
Nobody ever expected the SNP landslide in 2015 or Trump to win in 2016 or Corbyn to get a hung parliament in 2017 either, if people feel cheated by the establishment the lessen of the last 3 years is they will lose the ballot box to protestBig_G_NorthWales said:
What are you onHYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives UKIP (or the Brexit Party in this case) 290 seats if Farage repeats his Yougov European elections polling at a general election and Labour gets 22% and the Tories 15%. Add in the 10 for the DUP and that produces 300 seats, just needs 10 or 20 more and Farage certainly would be PMFoxy said:
Oh yes it can. He cannot get elected by FPTP in seven goes, and his gimps are even less succesful.HYUFD said:
As is the country as if we never leave the EU the prospect of Farage becoming PM cannot be dismissedwilliamglenn said:
Leading the Euro polls at 27% does not translate to PM.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=15&LAB=22&LIB=9&UKIP=27&Green=7&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=20170 -
Its probably not really 40%. But it is clearly a lot.rottenborough said:The Brexit virus is even worse than we thought.
0 -
Congress PartySean_F said:
You need only look at Canada, Italy, France, Holland, Greece, for examples of long-standing parties of government seeing their support swiftly disappear (or the Liberals after 1918). The Conservative and Labour parties will disappear one day.Benpointer said:
Unusually, I am sort of with HYUFD on this. There is a danger here.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you ever listen to yourself. You are in danger of losing credibilityHYUFD said:
Nobody ever expected the SNP landslide in 2015 or Trump to win in 2016 or Corbyn to get a hung parliament in 2017 either, if people feel cheated by the establishment the lessen of the last 3 years is they will lose the ballot box to protestBig_G_NorthWales said:
What are you onHYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives UKIP (or the Brexit Party in this case) 290 seats if Farage repeats his Yougov European elections polling at a general election and Labour gets 22% and the Tories 15%. Add in the 10 for the DUP and that produces 300 seats, just needs 10 or 20 more and Farage certainly would be PMFoxy said:
Oh yes it can. He cannot get elected by FPTP in seven goes, and his gimps are even less succesful.HYUFD said:
As is the country as if we never leave the EU the prospect of Farage becoming PM cannot be dismissedwilliamglenn said:
Leading the Euro polls at 27% does not translate to PM.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=15&LAB=22&LIB=9&UKIP=27&Green=7&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017
Take a look at the sequence of five German elections from 1928 to March 1933 on Wikipedia if you want to see how badly wrong things can go.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1928_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1930_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_1932_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_1932_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1933_German_federal_election
Do I think it at all likely Farage could ever be PM? No.
Is it possible? Sadly, yes. 0 -
No. Thay worked for most of them and the rest are the die hard.rottenborough said:
Is it possible that this weekend of staring into the pit of doom from across the UK from the canvassers for Tory party will final persuade the idiots of ERG to pass the bloody WA and save their arguments for the next stage?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Frankly they only have themselves to blame but to talk Farage as PM is utter nonsenseHYUFD said:
Have you been canvassing over the last few weeks Big G as I have? If not may I politely suggest you do not realise how angry many Leavers areBig_G_NorthWales said:
Do you ever listen to yourself. You are in danger of losing credibilityHYUFD said:
Nobody ever expected the SNP landslide in 2015 or Trump to win in 2016 or Corbyn to get a hung parliament in 2017 either, if people feel cheated by the establishment the lessen of the last 3 years is they will lose the ballot box to protestBig_G_NorthWales said:
What are you onHYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives UKIP (or the Brexit Party in this case) 290 seats if Farage repeats his Yougov European elections polling at a general election and Labour gets 22% and the Tories 15%. Add in the 10 for the DUP and that produces 300 seats, just needs 10 or 20 more and Farage certainly would be PMFoxy said:
Oh yes it can. He cannot get elected by FPTP in seven goes, and his gimps are even less succesful.HYUFD said:
As is the country as if we never leave the EU the prospect of Farage becoming PM cannot be dismissedwilliamglenn said:
Leading the Euro polls at 27% does not translate to PM.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=15&LAB=22&LIB=9&UKIP=27&Green=7&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=20170 -
The tory party seems less and less likely to recover under its own steam from this.
Next GE is therefore either a Coupon Elex or it results in PM Corbyn.
But will the 'stupid party' accept the Farage Coupon? Probably not. The EU-love in the top echelons seems just too great.
0 -
0
-
Makes sense. After all, what is a political party for?anothernick said:
That is certainly the case in the Labour. A public expression of support for an opposition candidate results in instant expulsion.Recidivist said:
I've never read the Tory Party's rule book, but presumably it requires members to support the party at elections? Shouldn't any candidate openly supporting another would be liable to be thrown out?williamglenn said:0 -
HS2 looks in serious doubt tonight:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/20/tory-leadership-candidates-must-promise-scrap-hs2-secret-report/
I always thought it would never actually be built.
Although how Boris expects to build a bridge to NI, if he can't support high speed rail is beyond me.0 -
Farage as PM? No. He's a simgle issue man, and very good at it too. Can't see his economic, health or education policies being popular in Doncaster. Let alone the 12 hour days of hard graft and detail and difficult choices.0
-
That's mostly true. There were exceptions, like Liverpool voting Remain and South Bucks voting Leave.Sean_F said:
As I said up thread, I think having a lot of wealth correlated strongly with a Remain vote, as opposed to being middle class. Places like Cities of Westminster & London, Chelsea & Fulham, Edinburgh South, Kensington, Putney, which voted very heavily Remain are immensely wealthy. Seats like Aldridge Brownhills, Old Bexley & Sidcup, Rayleigh & Wickford, Gillingham & Rainham which voted very heavily Leave are well off, rather than very rich.AndyJS said:
Yes I think the best indicators at the EU referendum were qualifications, age and ethnicity. Wealth was not as important as those three. Epping Forest for instance is pretty wealthy but voted Leave by a convincing margin. There was also a Merseyside effect where Liverpool and the surrounding areas were more Remain than you'd expect from demographics.HYUFD said:
ning whether a state was likely to have voted for Hillary or TrumpAndyJS said:
It's wealthier but it may have slightly fewer people with higher educational qualifications.HYUFD said:
Sevenoaks is also in Kent and is actually slightly wealthier than Tunbridge Wells and narrowly voted Leavebrokenwheel said:
No, that’s not the assertion. This false narrative has been seeping in from the Remain camp that actually Leave is some Machiavellian schemeviewcode said:
Fair point, but the explanation is that *fewer than expected* posh people voted remain, not *None*brokenwheel said:
Can you explain then why the wealthiest Tory shires of the M4 and M3 corridors voted Remain?nico67 said:The worn out media narrative of the Leave vote.
A cry for help from left behind Communities , really if that was the case I’d have been a lot more accepting of the result .
Even though they chose to take their anger out on the wrong thing . The government really should have been the cause of their anger .
A big part of the Leave vote was due to well off Tories in the Shires , the same group who want a no deal and really have little to lose whilst fxcking everyone else .
After all Cameron, Osborne etc are entirely representative of the wealthy Tory patrician class, and they are liberal remainers.
Or how if the Leave vote was mostly wealthy Tories, why so few went to university?
Maybe you are talking bollocks.
It’s blatant. Take a look at Kent, a very leavey place0 -
It was 40%, not the 50% you favourBenpointer said:
But as there was a minimum threshold the 'will of (33% of) the people' was not enough to force the change.Sunil_Prasannan said:
It beat the 33% of the electorate the 1979 Yes vote received.AndyJS said:
I thought the 1997 Scottish referendum might have got 50% but in fact it was only 45%: 74% on a 60% turnout.Sean_F said:If no constitutional change were to take place without 50% of the electorate voting in favour, no constitutional change would take place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Scottish_devolution_referendum
0 -
HS2.
Burned on the altar of tory leadership candidates needing votes from an ageing membership.0 -
In most countries the Conservatives would have been in serious danger of long-term decline after their 1997 and 2001 debacles, but I think the intensely small-c conservative nature of the British electorate at that time ensured they were given another chance in 2010. But now the UK electorate is probably a lot more like Canada than it used to be and will be less forgiving in the future.Sean_F said:
You need only look at Canada, Italy, France, Holland, Greece, for examples of long-standing parties of government seeing their support swiftly disappear (or the Liberals after 1918). The Conservative and Labour parties will disappear one day.Benpointer said:
Unusually, I am sort of with HYUFD on this. There is a danger here.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you ever listen to yourself. You are in danger of losing credibilityHYUFD said:
Nobody ever expected the SNP landslide in 2015 or Trump to win in 2016 or Corbyn to get a hung parliament in 2017 either, if people feel cheated by the establishment the lessen of the last 3 years is they will lose the ballot box to protestBig_G_NorthWales said:
What are you onHYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives UKIP (or the Brexit Party in this case) 290 seats if Farage repeats his Yougov European elections polling at a general election and Labour gets 22% and the Tories 15%. Add in the 10 for the DUP and that produces 300 seats, just needs 10 or 20 more and Farage certainly would be PMFoxy said:
Oh yes it can. He cannot get elected by FPTP in seven goes, and his gimps are even less succesful.HYUFD said:
As is the country as if we never leave the EU the prospect of Farage becoming PM cannot be dismissedwilliamglenn said:
Leading the Euro polls at 27% does not translate to PM.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=15&LAB=22&LIB=9&UKIP=27&Green=7&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017
Take a look at the sequence of five German elections from 1928 to March 1933 on Wikipedia if you want to see how badly wrong things can go.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1928_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1930_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_1932_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_1932_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1933_German_federal_election
Do I think it at all likely Farage could ever be PM? No.
Is it possible? Sadly, yes.0 -
Let's hope that's their last one. Though I doubt it will be.AndyJS said:
In most countries the Conservatives would have been in serious danger of long-term decline after 1997, but I think the intensely small-c conservative nature of the British electorate at that time ensured they were given another chance in 2010.Sean_F said:
You need only look at Canada, Italy, France, Holland, Greece, for examples of long-standing parties of government seeing their support swiftly disappear (or the Liberals after 1918). The Conservative and Labour parties will disappear one day.Benpointer said:
Unusually, I am sort of with HYUFD on this. There is a danger here.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you ever listen to yourself. You are in danger of losing credibilityHYUFD said:
Nobody ever expected the SNP landslide in 2015 or Trump to win in 2016 or Corbyn to get a hung parliament in 2017 either, if people feel cheated by the establishment the lessen of the last 3 years is they will lose the ballot box to protestBig_G_NorthWales said:
What are you onHYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives UKIP (or the Brexit Party in this case) 290 seats if Farage repeats his Yougov European elections polling at a general election and Labour gets 22% and the Tories 15%. Add in the 10 for the DUP and that produces 300 seats, just needs 10 or 20 more and Farage certainly would be PMFoxy said:
Oh yes it can. He cannot get elected by FPTP in seven goes, and his gimps are even less succesful.HYUFD said:
As is the country as if we never leave the EU the prospect of Farage becoming PM cannot be dismissedwilliamglenn said:
Leading the Euro polls at 27% does not translate to PM.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=15&LAB=22&LIB=9&UKIP=27&Green=7&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017
Take a look at the sequence of five German elections from 1928 to March 1933 on Wikipedia if you want to see how badly wrong things can go.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1928_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1930_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_1932_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_1932_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1933_German_federal_election
Do I think it at all likely Farage could ever be PM? No.
Is it possible? Sadly, yes.0 -
Long standing Tories have gone literally mad.
They will long rue the day they lost their heads.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/20/britons-no-longer-just-want-leave-eu-want-change-politics/0 -
Telegraph morphed from Boris mouthpiece to Faragerottenborough said:Long standing Tories have gone literally mad.
They will long rue the day they lost their heads.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/20/britons-no-longer-just-want-leave-eu-want-change-politics/0 -
A lot of people on the left and centre of politics believe the money could be better spent on, say, a fast east/west link between Hull, Leeds, Manchester and Liverpool.rottenborough said:HS2.
Burned on the altar of tory leadership candidates needing votes from an ageing membership.0 -
That is because Hague focused on keeping his base happy in 2001, despite criticism at the time he at least stabilised the Tories otherwise they could have suffered even further losses in 2001AndyJS said:
In most countries the Conservatives would have been in serious danger of long-term decline after their 1997 and 2001 debacles, but I think the intensely small-c conservative nature of the British electorate at that time ensured they were given another chance in 2010. But now the UK electorate is probably a lot more like Canada than it used to be and will be less forgiving in the future.Sean_F said:
You need only look at Canada, Italy, France, Holland, Greece, for examples of long-standing parties of government seeing their support swiftly disappear (or the Liberals after 1918). The Conservative and Labour parties will disappear one day.Benpointer said:
Unusually, I am sort of with HYUFD on this. There is a danger here. ederal_electionBig_G_NorthWales said:
Do you ever listen to yourself. You are in danger of losing credibilityHYUFD said:
Nobody ever expected the SNP landslide in 2015 or Trump to win in 2016 or Corbyn to get a hung parliament in 2017 either, if people feel cheated by the establishment the lessen of the last 3 years is they will lose the ballot box to protestBig_G_NorthWales said:
What are you onHYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives UKIP (or the Brexit Party in this case) 290 seats if Farageats, just needs 10 or 20 more and Farage certainly would be PMFoxy said:
Oh yes it can. He cannot get elected by FPTP in seven goes, and his gimps are even less succesful.HYUFD said:
As is the country as if we never leave the EU the prospect of Farage becoming PM cannot be dismissedwilliamglenn said:
Leading the Euro polls at 27% does not translate to PM.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=15&LAB=22&LIB=9&UKIP=27&Green=7&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_1932_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_1932_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1933_German_federal_election
Do I think it at all likely Farage could ever be PM? No.
Is it possible? Sadly, yes.0 -
Is that supposed to be Farage??brokenwheel said: 0 -
I know. But 40% would be better than no threshold.Sunil_Prasannan said:
It was 40%, not the 50% you favourBenpointer said:
But as there was a minimum threshold the 'will of (33% of) the people' was not enough to force the change.Sunil_Prasannan said:
It beat the 33% of the electorate the 1979 Yes vote received.AndyJS said:
I thought the 1997 Scottish referendum might have got 50% but in fact it was only 45%: 74% on a 60% turnout.Sean_F said:If no constitutional change were to take place without 50% of the electorate voting in favour, no constitutional change would take place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Scottish_devolution_referendum
Pathetic to think that the people of this country were so determined to leave the EU that fully 37% of them bothered to vote for it.0 -
The 40% threatening to vote for Farage party is if TM is still in post when the elections take place
Just more pressure added to her tenure with Graham Brady also now calling for her to go0 -
Be careful what you wish for, if the Conservative Party is replaced it will be by a hard right party like the Brexit Party, not some nice new liberal Remainer party, we already have plenty of thoseRecidivist said:
Let's hope that's their last one. Though I doubt it will be.AndyJS said:
In most countries the Conservatives would have been in serious danger of long-term decline after 1997, but I think the intensely small-c conservative nature of the British electorate at that time ensured they were given another chance in 2010.Sean_F said:
You need only look at Canada, Italy, France, Holland, Greece, for examples of long-standing parties of government seeing their support swiftly disappear (or the Liberals after 1918). The Conservative and Labour parties will disappear one day.Benpointer said:
Unusually, I am sort of with HYUFD on this. There is a danger here.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you ever listen to yourself. You are in danger of losing credibilityHYUFD said:
Nobody ever expected the SNP landslide in 2015 or Trump to win in 2016 or Corbyn to get a hung parliament in 2017 either, if people feel cheated by the establishment the lessen of the last 3 years is they will lose the ballot box to protestBig_G_NorthWales said:
What are you onHYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives UKIP (or the Brexit Party in this =2017Foxy said:
Oh yes it can. He cannot get elected by FPTP in seven goes, and his gimps are even less succesful.HYUFD said:
As is the country as if we never leave the EU the prospect of Farage becoming PM cannot be dismissedwilliamglenn said:
Leading the Euro polls at 27% does not translate to PM.
Take a look at the sequence of five German elections from 1928 to March 1933 on Wikipedia if you want to see how badly wrong things can go.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1928_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1930_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_1932_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_1932_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1933_German_federal_election
Do I think it at all likely Farage could ever be PM? No.
Is it possible? Sadly, yes.0 -
And it’s need is a direct consequence of the phenomenally successful railway privatisation. From 1950 to 1994 the story of the railways was of managed decline and line closures. Now the demand is so great they are having to build new tracks. HS2 is not really about shaving 20 minutes off the journey but about new capacity.rottenborough said:HS2.
Burned on the altar of tory leadership candidates needing votes from an ageing membership.
0 -
Jesus. Is that their idea of a "big idea"? How much has already been spent? An open goal if they try to point out the absence of a magic money tree.rottenborough said:0 -
HS2 to be scrapped by whoever wins the tory leadership?
There was a time when the Tories were the party of business and entrepreneurship. The builders of prosperity. Thatcherites. Go getters.0 -
It is more protest we are still in the EU, the Commons is as much to blame as May, hence the Brexit Party leads the Yougov Euro elections pollingBig_G_NorthWales said:The 40% threatening to vote for Farage party is if TM is still in post when the elections take place
Just more pressure added to her tenure with Graham Brady also now calling for her to go0 -
The ERG lot might think the public see them as heroes holding out for the perfect Brexit. They don’t. And when the tide comes in it will drag them back with it whatever their own Brexit views.kle4 said:
No. Thay worked for most of them and the rest are the die hard.rottenborough said:
Is it possible that this weekend of staring into the pit of doom from across the UK from the canvassers for Tory party will final persuade the idiots of ERG to pass the bloody WA and save their arguments for the next stage?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Frankly they only have themselves to blame but to talk Farage as PM is utter nonsenseHYUFD said:
Have you been canvassing over the last few weeks Big G as I have? If not may I politely suggest you do not realise how angry many Leavers areBig_G_NorthWales said:
Do you ever listen to yourself. You are in danger of losing credibilityHYUFD said:
Nobody ever expected the SNP landslide in 2015 or Trump to win in 2016 or Corbyn to get a hung parliament in 2017 either, if people feel cheated by the establishment the lessen of the last 3 years is they will lose the ballot box to protestBig_G_NorthWales said:
What are you onHYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives UKIP (or the Brexit Party in this case) 290 seats if Farage repeats his Yougov European elections polling at a general election and Labour gets 22% and the Tories 15%. Add in the 10 for the DUP and that produces 300 seats, just needs 10 or 20 more and Farage certainly would be PMFoxy said:
Oh yes it can. He cannot get elected by FPTP in seven goes, and his gimps are even less succesful.HYUFD said:
As is the country as if we never leave the EU the prospect of Farage becoming PM cannot be dismissedwilliamglenn said:
Leading the Euro polls at 27% does not translate to PM.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=15&LAB=22&LIB=9&UKIP=27&Green=7&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017
We have Tory constituencies in which the MP is no longer welcome on the canvassing team.0 -
Yeh, looks that way. They will take the Tory party down the same rabbit hole unless sensible members like yourself don't stop this madness.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph morphed from Boris mouthpiece to Faragerottenborough said:Long standing Tories have gone literally mad.
They will long rue the day they lost their heads.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/20/britons-no-longer-just-want-leave-eu-want-change-politics/
Sign the bloody deal and move on!!!!0 -
That is my ardent wishrottenborough said:
Yeh, looks that way. They will take the Tory party down the same rabbit hole unless sensible members like yourself don't stop this madness.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph morphed from Boris mouthpiece to Faragerottenborough said:Long standing Tories have gone literally mad.
They will long rue the day they lost their heads.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/20/britons-no-longer-just-want-leave-eu-want-change-politics/
Sign the bloody deal and move on!!!!0 -
Sunken costs are gone. Walk away if the project doesn’t add up. Not saying to do so of course as I don’t know if the project should be scrapped.dixiedean said:
Jesus. Is that their idea of a "big idea"? How much has already been spent? An open goal if they try to point out the absence of a magic money tree.rottenborough said:0 -
AndyJS said:
A lot of people on the left and centre of politics believe the money could be better spent on, say, a fast east/west link between Hull, Leeds, Manchester and Liverpool.rottenborough said:HS2.
Burned on the altar of tory leadership candidates needing votes from an ageing membership.
Is there a demand / capacity issue that warrants such a project?0 -
That was a long time ago. The Tories are now a party of English nationalists.rottenborough said:HS2 to be scrapped by whoever wins the tory leadership?
There was a time when the Tories were the party of business and entrepreneurship. The builders of prosperity. Thatcherites. Go getters.0 -
Tory source on HS2:
"However, the capacity it delivers on intercity and capacity it frees up on the existing network for more services could only be matched by two brand new north-south motorways – a prospect no one has yet put to members. ”
0 -
Oh yes, I'd forgotten about Hague's "save the pound" campaign. He's probably a bit embarrassed about the tone of that campaign today, going by his Telegraph columns.HYUFD said:
That is because Hague focused on keeping his base happy in 2001, despite criticism at the time he at least stabilised the Tories otherwise they could have suffered even further losses in 2001AndyJS said:
t more like Canada than it used to be and will be less forgiving in the future.Sean_F said:
You need only look at Canada, Italy, France, Holland, Greece, for examples of long-standing parties of government seeing their support swiftly disappear (or the Liberals after 1918). The Conservative and Labour parties will disappear one day.Benpointer said:
Unusually, I am sort of with HYUFD on this. There is a danger here. ederal_electionBig_G_NorthWales said:
Do you ever listen to yourself. You are in danger of losing credibilityHYUFD said:
Nobody ever expected the SNP landslide in 2015 or Trump to win in 2016 or Corbyn to get a hung parliament in 2017 either, if people feel cheated by the establishment the lessen of the last 3 years is they will lose the ballot box to protestBig_G_NorthWales said:
What are you onHYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives UKIP (or the Brexit Party in this case) 290 seats if Farageats, just needs 10 or 20 more and Farage certainly would be PMFoxy said:
Oh yes it can. He cannot get elected by FPTP in seven goes, and his gimps are even less succesful.HYUFD said:
As is the country as if we never leave the EU the prospect of Farage becoming PM cannot be dismissedwilliamglenn said:
Leading the Euro polls at 27% does not translate to PM.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=15&LAB=22&LIB=9&UKIP=27&Green=7&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_1932_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_1932_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1933_German_federal_election
Do I think it at all likely Farage could ever be PM? No.
Is it possible? Sadly, yes.0 -
They are the "stop any project that benefits the country" party now.dixiedean said:
Jesus. Is that their idea of a "big idea"? How much has already been spent? An open goal if they try to point out the absence of a magic money tree.rottenborough said:0 -
Signing the deal would help Farage. It would still be a ‘betrayal’, and there’d be no way to back out.rottenborough said:
Yeh, looks that way. They will take the Tory party down the same rabbit hole unless sensible members like yourself don't stop this madness.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph morphed from Boris mouthpiece to Faragerottenborough said:Long standing Tories have gone literally mad.
They will long rue the day they lost their heads.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/20/britons-no-longer-just-want-leave-eu-want-change-politics/
Sign the bloody deal and move on!!!!0 -
Yeah, that'll go down better than HS2.rottenborough said:Tory source on HS2:
"However, the capacity it delivers on intercity and capacity it frees up on the existing network for more services could only be matched by two brand new north-south motorways – a prospect no one has yet put to members. ”0 -
HS2?Recidivist said:
They are the "stop any project that benefits the country" party now.dixiedean said:
Jesus. Is that their idea of a "big idea"? How much has already been spent? An open goal if they try to point out the absence of a magic money tree.rottenborough said:
Crossrail hasn't even opened yet!!!0 -
https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/displayreport/report/html/a830de20-83bf-408d-9c22-7f3ec23999f9dixiedean said:
Jesus. Is that their idea of a "big idea"? How much has already been spent? An open goal if they try to point out the absence of a magic money tree.rottenborough said:
£4.333bn up to the end of 2017-18.0 -
Increasingly looking like Poujadists.anothernick said:
That was a long time ago. The Tories are now a party of English nationalists.rottenborough said:HS2 to be scrapped by whoever wins the tory leadership?
There was a time when the Tories were the party of business and entrepreneurship. The builders of prosperity. Thatcherites. Go getters.
I seem to dimly recall a time when Boris was talking about building a massive world class airport in the Kent estuary.
No more. Now it is who can do nothing the most.0 -
Yes Hague eventually backed Remain but as he has said since if he had not done the 'Save the pound' campaign he could have seen Tory voters lost to UKIP without gaining any from Blair and New Labour, his job was to prevent annihilation in 2001 given the scale of the 1997 defeat, he was never going to actually beat BlairAndyJS said:
Oh yes, I'd forgotten about Hague's "save the pound" campaign. He's probably a bit embarrassed about the tone of that campaign today, going by his Telegraph columns.HYUFD said:
That is because Hague focused on keeping his base happy in 2001, despite criticism at the time he at least stabilised the Tories otherwise they could have suffered even further losses in 2001AndyJS said:
t more like Canada than it used to be and will be less forgiving in the future.Sean_F said:
You need only look at Canada, Italy, France, Holland, Greece, for examples of long-standing parties of government seeing their support swiftly disappear (or the Liberals after 1918). The Conservative and Labour parties will disappear one day.Benpointer said:
Unusually, I am sort of with HYUFD on this. There is a danger here. ederal_electionBig_G_NorthWales said:
Do you ever listen to yourself. You are in danger of losing credibilityHYUFD said:
Nobody ever expected the SNP landslide in protestBig_G_NorthWales said:
What are you onHYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives UKIP (or the Brexit Party in this case) 290 seats if Farageats, just needs 10 or 20 more and Farage certainly would be PMFoxy said:
Oh yes it can. He cannot get elected by FPTP in seven goes, and his gimps are even less succesful.HYUFD said:
As is the country as if we never leave the EU the prospect of Farage becoming PM cannot be dismissedwilliamglenn said:
Leading the Euro polls at 27% does not translate to PM.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=15&LAB=22&LIB=9&UKIP=27&Green=7&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_1932_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_1932_German_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1933_German_federal_election
Do I think it at all likely Farage could ever be PM? No.
Is it possible? Sadly, yes.0 -
Looking more and more like the "I don't like change' party.Recidivist said:
They are the "stop any project that benefits the country" party now.dixiedean said:
Jesus. Is that their idea of a "big idea"? How much has already been spent? An open goal if they try to point out the absence of a magic money tree.rottenborough said:
0 -
Exactly.williamglenn said:
Signing the deal would help Farage. It would still be a ‘betrayal’, and there’d be no way to back out.rottenborough said:
Yeh, looks that way. They will take the Tory party down the same rabbit hole unless sensible members like yourself don't stop this madness.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph morphed from Boris mouthpiece to Faragerottenborough said:Long standing Tories have gone literally mad.
They will long rue the day they lost their heads.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/20/britons-no-longer-just-want-leave-eu-want-change-politics/
Sign the bloody deal and move on!!!!
And getting the commons votes for the WA Act will require Corbyn. And meeting all his demands. Which of course are calibrated to split the tory parly party.
The WA is dead or the tory parly party splits0 -
It would still be Brexit, the average Leave voter bar the fanatics does not care about the backstop or even that much about the Customs Union, what they do care about is almost 3 years after voting Leave we are still in the EU, that is what is seeing the Farage and Brexit Party surgewilliamglenn said:
Signing the deal would help Farage. It would still be a ‘betrayal’, and there’d be no way to back out.rottenborough said:
Yeh, looks that way. They will take the Tory party down the same rabbit hole unless sensible members like yourself don't stop this madness.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph morphed from Boris mouthpiece to Faragerottenborough said:Long standing Tories have gone literally mad.
They will long rue the day they lost their heads.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/20/britons-no-longer-just-want-leave-eu-want-change-politics/
Sign the bloody deal and move on!!!!0 -
"A lot of people on the left and centre of politics believe the money could be better spent on, say, a fast east/west link between Hull, Leeds, Manchester and Liverpool."notme2 said:AndyJS said:
A lot of people on the left and centre of politics believe the money could be better spent on, say, a fast east/west link between Hull, Leeds, Manchester and Liverpool.rottenborough said:HS2.
Burned on the altar of tory leadership candidates needing votes from an ageing membership.
Is there a demand / capacity issue that warrants such a project?
Do that as well.
If HS2 is scrapped the money will not be spent on the northern projects you mention. Not unless there has been more devolution of power and spending in this country.0 -
So will the Labour party split if Corbyn sticks with Brexit with a Customs Union rather than backing revoke Article 50 or EUref2shiney2 said:
Exactly.williamglenn said:
Signing the deal would help Farage. It would still be a ‘betrayal’, and there’d be no way to back out.rottenborough said:
Yeh, looks that way. They will take the Tory party down the same rabbit hole unless sensible members like yourself don't stop this madness.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph morphed from Boris mouthpiece to Faragerottenborough said:Long standing Tories have gone literally mad.
They will long rue the day they lost their heads.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/20/britons-no-longer-just-want-leave-eu-want-change-politics/
Sign the bloody deal and move on!!!!
And getting the commons votes for the WA Act will require Corbyn. And meeting all his demands. Which of course are calibrated to split the tory parly party.
The WA is dead or the tory parly party splits0 -
That's my main problem with HS2. We haven't decided to spend X amount on the railways, we've decided to build a nice new shiney railway which politicians can don hard hats and cut ribbons. If we think railways are that important, let's upgrade the existing lines as well and do it properly rather than the piecemeal approach which leads to trains needing to work with three different signalling systems.rottenborough said:
"A lot of people on the left and centre of politics believe the money could be better spent on, say, a fast east/west link between Hull, Leeds, Manchester and Liverpool."notme2 said:AndyJS said:
A lot of people on the left and centre of politics believe the money could be better spent on, say, a fast east/west link between Hull, Leeds, Manchester and Liverpool.rottenborough said:HS2.
Burned on the altar of tory leadership candidates needing votes from an ageing membership.
Is there a demand / capacity issue that warrants such a project?
Do that as well.
If HS2 is scrapped the money will not be spent on the northern projects you mention. Not unless there has been more devolution of power and spending in this country.0 -
0
-
Which is, of course, why he will not make a decision. And thus the WA hangs around the tory's neck, in an unpassable state, until the tories have to make a decision to ditch it.HYUFD said:
So will the Labour party split if Corbyn sticks with Brexit with a Customs Union rather than backing revoke Article 50 or EUref2shiney2 said:
Exactly.williamglenn said:
Signing the deal would help Farage. It would still be a ‘betrayal’, and there’d be no way to back out.rottenborough said:
Yeh, looks that way. They will take the Tory party down the same rabbit hole unless sensible members like yourself don't stop this madness.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Telegraph morphed from Boris mouthpiece to Faragerottenborough said:Long standing Tories have gone literally mad.
They will long rue the day they lost their heads.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/20/britons-no-longer-just-want-leave-eu-want-change-politics/
Sign the bloody deal and move on!!!!
And getting the commons votes for the WA Act will require Corbyn. And meeting all his demands. Which of course are calibrated to split the tory parly party.
The WA is dead or the tory parly party splits0 -
-
Not going for the green vote then!rottenborough said:Tory source on HS2:
"However, the capacity it delivers on intercity and capacity it frees up on the existing network for more services could only be matched by two brand new north-south motorways – a prospect no one has yet put to members. ”
A slower railway with stops at some new towns may well be better environmentally and economically.0 -
This discussion has been closed.