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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With the first LE2018 postal votes being cast the signs are not good for the Tories

While everybody seems to be getting excited about the May 23rd Euro elections there has been little focus on the big hurdle that the Tories have to surmount three weeks before that. These are the local elections in England which cover almost all of the country excluding London and just one or two counties.

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Theuniondivvie

First unlike the Cons.

RobD

Second unlike the Cons.

Quincel

UKIP are barely running in 15% of seats in the LEs, the The Brexit Party aren't running at all. That should help The Tories hold on to their vote. Of course, both are running in the EU Elections - and PR makes it harder to ward off challengers.

isam

Upminster Bridge - The least used Underground station on the District Line, Nazi imagery, phone boxes with no phones and one of the least impressive Bridges in the world?


https://youtu.be/21LVdnStd_4 ...

Fenman

Which, Mike, is why I think the TIGs will not do well in the Euros. The post May 2nd narrative will be about the return of the Lib Dems, the real party of Remain. It will be better to Chuka it in.

Sean_F

My guess is the Conservatives will lose about 800 seats, net. The Lib Dems should expect 400 gains.

El_Capitano

Fenman said:

Which, Mike, is why I think the TIGs will not do well in the Euros. The post May 2nd narrative will be about the return of the Lib Dems, the real party of Remain. It will be better to Chuka it in.

I agree. TIG has no campaigning apparatus and the Lib Dems will be on a high.

The wildcard is TIG's candidate selection. If they stand some big names, they could get a seat or two. Equally, if any of their candidates are shown to have dodgy pasts, it could sink the party at its first outing. It's very possible that TIG will unwittingly select a Jared O'Mara character.

RobD

El_Capitano said:

Fenman said:

Which, Mike, is why I think the TIGs will not do well in the Euros. The post May 2nd narrative will be about the return of the Lib Dems, the real party of Remain. It will be better to Chuka it in.

I agree. TIG has no campaigning apparatus and the Lib Dems will be on a high.

The wildcard is TIG's candidate selection. If they stand some big names, they could get a seat or two. Equally, if any of their candidates are shown to have dodgy pasts, it could sink the party at its first outing. It's very possible that TIG will unwittingly select a Jared O'Mara character.

Isn't it more likely that the plethora of remain options will lead to a very split and inefficient vote?

logical_song

Mike, are you suggesting that Cable will resign after the Locals but before the Euros. I assume that wouldn't leave enough time to elect a successor.

Pulpstar

Quincel said:

UKIP are barely running in 15% of seats in the LEs, the The Brexit Party aren't running at all. That should help The Tories hold on to their vote. Of course, both are running in the EU Elections - and PR makes it harder to ward off challengers.

I note in my area (Whole council election) there are 6 kippers and 6 independents running over the 25 seats, with 9 Lib Dems.
Fair play to the Tories here, they're the only party who has put up a full slate.
I also note none of the UKIP and independent candidates overlap.

Do the green party only contest city seats nowadays in the locals ?

FrancisUrquhart

I see the fallout 76 LARPers are out in force again Paris. Rioting as per usual.

logical_song

RobD said:

El_Capitano said:

Fenman said:

Which, Mike, is why I think the TIGs will not do well in the Euros. The post May 2nd narrative will be about the return of the Lib Dems, the real party of Remain. It will be better to Chuka it in.

I agree. TIG has no campaigning apparatus and the Lib Dems will be on a high.

The wildcard is TIG's candidate selection. If they stand some big names, they could get a seat or two. Equally, if any of their candidates are shown to have dodgy pasts, it could sink the party at its first outing. It's very possible that TIG will unwittingly select a Jared O'Mara character.

Isn't it more likely that the plethora of remain options will lead to a very split and inefficient vote?

Yes, it's also possible that the 'air war' would be much more important in the Euros, so the lack of 'campaigning apparatus' might not matter (ditto for Brexit Party).

MarqueeMark

"My guess is that the Lib Dems will do better than at any set of local elections since going into coalition with the Tories in May 2010."

I'm not doubting it - but how high is that bar?

Sean_F

Pulpstar said:

Quincel said:

UKIP are barely running in 15% of seats in the LEs, the The Brexit Party aren't running at all. That should help The Tories hold on to their vote. Of course, both are running in the EU Elections - and PR makes it harder to ward off challengers.

I note in my area (Whole council election) there are 6 kippers and 6 independents running over the 25 seats, with 9 Lib Dems.
Fair play to the Tories here, they're the only party who has put up a full slate.
I also note none of the UKIP and independent candidates overlap.

Do the green party only contest city seats nowadays in the locals ?

The Greens are very erratic. They have almost a full slate in big urban areas. In some rural areas, like Devon and Suffolk, they field lots of candidates, in others, very few.

Pulpstar

Man of the match Big Billy into the final.

El_Capitano

Pulpstar said:

Quincel said:

UKIP are barely running in 15% of seats in the LEs, the The Brexit Party aren't running at all. That should help The Tories hold on to their vote. Of course, both are running in the EU Elections - and PR makes it harder to ward off challengers.

I note in my area (Whole council election) there are 6 kippers and 6 independents running over the 25 seats, with 9 Lib Dems.
Fair play to the Tories here, they're the only party who has put up a full slate.
I also note none of the UKIP and independent candidates overlap.

Do the green party only contest city seats nowadays in the locals ?

They're contesting plenty of district council seats here. They'll win precisely 0 seats but the votes they do get will probably stop Labour and the Lib Dems from taking a few more off the Conservatives.

Quincel

El_Capitano said:

Fenman said:

Which, Mike, is why I think the TIGs will not do well in the Euros. The post May 2nd narrative will be about the return of the Lib Dems, the real party of Remain. It will be better to Chuka it in.

I agree. TIG has no campaigning apparatus and the Lib Dems will be on a high.

The wildcard is TIG's candidate selection. If they stand some big names, they could get a seat or two. Equally, if any of their candidates are shown to have dodgy pasts, it could sink the party at its first outing. It's very possible that TIG will unwittingly select a Jared O'Mara character.

Do voters really care about who is on the list in Euro Elections? Perhaps with the exception of UKIP voters liking Farage personally, I honestly never thought any material number of voters are voting for a person not party.

Dodgy selections could cause some bad publicity, but I doubt even that much anyway.

ydoethur

Pulpstar said:

Quincel said:

UKIP are barely running in 15% of seats in the LEs, the The Brexit Party aren't running at all. That should help The Tories hold on to their vote. Of course, both are running in the EU Elections - and PR makes it harder to ward off challengers.

I note in my area (Whole council election) there are 6 kippers and 6 independents running over the 25 seats, with 9 Lib Dems.
Fair play to the Tories here, they're the only party who has put up a full slate.
I also note none of the UKIP and independent candidates overlap.

Do the green party only contest city seats nowadays in the locals ?

No - both Cannock and Stroud have a decent slate.

But the Green Party vary widely. They're not really a national organisation, more a series of local organisations under a national umbrella. In Cannock and Stroud where their membership is energetic, they are a force to consider. In Ceredigion, noticeably less so as the energy goes to Plaid (who elected the first ever MP for the Greens on a joint Plaid/Green ticket in 1992). In many other areas, as noted they don't really exist at all.

SandyRentool

El_Capitano said:

Pulpstar said:

Quincel said:

UKIP are barely running in 15% of seats in the LEs, the The Brexit Party aren't running at all. That should help The Tories hold on to their vote. Of course, both are running in the EU Elections - and PR makes it harder to ward off challengers.

I note in my area (Whole council election) there are 6 kippers and 6 independents running over the 25 seats, with 9 Lib Dems.
Fair play to the Tories here, they're the only party who has put up a full slate.
I also note none of the UKIP and independent candidates overlap.

Do the green party only contest city seats nowadays in the locals ?

They're contesting plenty of district council seats here. They'll win precisely 0 seats but the votes they do get will probably stop Labour and the Lib Dems from taking a few more off the Conservatives.

Yes it's bloody annoying. At least I've persuaded my other half to vote tactically for Labour in the locals to try to boot a Tory out.

IanB2

Quincel said:

UKIP are barely running in 15% of seats in the LEs, the The Brexit Party aren't running at all. That should help The Tories hold on to their vote. Of course, both are running in the EU Elections - and PR makes it harder to ward off challengers.

Is it really as many as 15%?

brokenwheel

The Tories will do ok, simply because these areas aren't great for anyone else. And frankly the sort of weirdos who participate in local elections are going to be the more loyal parts of each party's electorate. It's the people who only show up for big votes like a GE they need to worry about.

ydoethur

brokenwheel said:

It's the people who only show up for big votes like a GE they need to worry about.

That one sentence tells you everything you need to know about why our political system is so divided and ineffectual.

Freggles

IanB2 said:

Quincel said:

UKIP are barely running in 15% of seats in the LEs, the The Brexit Party aren't running at all. That should help The Tories hold on to their vote. Of course, both are running in the EU Elections - and PR makes it harder to ward off challengers.

Is it really as many as 15%?

A lot of those will be one candidate in a multi member ward, we have a few in our area like this

Quincel

IanB2 said:

Quincel said:

UKIP are barely running in 15% of seats in the LEs, the The Brexit Party aren't running at all. That should help The Tories hold on to their vote. Of course, both are running in the EU Elections - and PR makes it harder to ward off challengers.

Is it really as many as 15%?

16%, according to Democracy Club, is the figure I've seen quoted. Can't see it on their website, but you can download a spreadsheet from there and I imagine that's where it's from.

viewcode

ydoethur said:

brokenwheel said:

It's the people who only show up for big votes like a GE they need to worry about.

That one sentence tells you everything you need to know about why our political system is so divided and ineffectual.

Australia has compulsory voting.
Just sayin'

IanB2

Fenman said:

Which, Mike, is why I think the TIGs will not do well in the Euros. The post May 2nd narrative will be about the return of the Lib Dems, the real party of Remain. It will be better to Chuka it in.

Sad to say, I am beginning to think that TIG has blown its chance. Which is worth a thread in itself. They ducked the opportunity to do a policy declaration a la Limehouse, because both Tory and Labour defectors wanted to cling to the belief that "they didn't leave their party, it left them", which obviously doesn't compute. So there was no call to arms for people looking for a new approach to politics.

They oversold the prospect of getting a steady flow of further defectors. Even on political reform only Chuka has tried to set out a comprehensive agenda, leaving doubts as to what their MPs really think about PR or Lords reform. Their social media performance has been somewhat lame. Their choice of name doesn't really work and their very poor logo wasn't accepted by the EC. They gave a cold shoulder to the LibDems and don't really seem to understand what it means to be a third party in our political system.

Now it looks like they could become merely a vehicle for former MPs who lost their seats and former MEPs rejected by the main parties to try and resurrect their careers by standing for MEP. Candidates chosen and ordered into a list by an opaque interview process, because they don't yet have any formal membership structure. An end point a very long way from the change they initially promised. Indeed aside from Chuka's political reform speech and some stirring opposition to Brexit from Soubry and Leslie, it isn't clear what they actually offer, and it certainly doesn't appear to include very much 'change'.

The sadness is that if they fail, it will close off the chance for others to do a better job. Leaving Farage as the only chance of 'breaking the mould' - and he is surely likely to lose interest once Brexit is out the way, whatever he says now about his longer term objective.

ydoethur

viewcode said:

ydoethur said:

brokenwheel said:

It's the people who only show up for big votes like a GE they need to worry about.

That one sentence tells you everything you need to know about why our political system is so divided and ineffectual.

Australia has compulsory voting.
Just sayin'

Actually I was thinking less about apathy than the tendency of our parties to concentrate on client votes and ignore everyone else. See the 35% strategy of Ed Miliband.

ydoethur

This Robertson-Georgiou match is right now more one-sided than an Alistair Campbell press release.

Sean_F

IanB2 said:

Fenman said:

Which, Mike, is why I think the TIGs will not do well in the Euros. The post May 2nd narrative will be about the return of the Lib Dems, the real party of Remain. It will be better to Chuka it in.

Sad to say, I am beginning to think that TIG has blown its chance. Which is worth a thread in itself. They ducked the opportunity to do a policy declaration a la Limehouse, because both Tory and Labour defectors wanted to cling to the belief that "they didn't leave their party, it left them", which obviously doesn't compute. So there was no call to arms for people looking for a new approach to politics.

They oversold the prospect of getting a steady flow of recruits. Even on political reform only Chuka has tried to set out a comprehensive agenda, leaving doubts as to what their MPs really think about PR or Lords reform. Their social media performance has been somewhat lame. Their choice of name doesn't really work and their very poor logo wasn't accepted by the EC. They gave a cold shoulder to the LibDems and don't really seem to understand what it means to be a third party in our political system.

Now it looks like they could become merely a vehicle for former MPs who lost their seats and former MEPs rejected by the main parties to try and resurrect their careers. Candidates chosen and ordered into a list by an opaque interview process, because they don't yet have any formal membership structure. An end point a very long way from the change they initially promised. Indeed aside from Chuka's political reform speech and some stirring opposition to Brexit from Soubry and Leslie, it isn't clear what they actually offer, and it certainly doesn't appear to include very much 'change'.

The sadness is that if they fail, it will close off the chance for others to do a better job. Leaving Farage as the only chance of 'breaking the mould' - and he is surely likely to lose interest once Brexit is out the way, whatever he says now about his longer term objective.

I think a lot of Labour MP's were on the point of jumping ship, before Corbyn moved on the second referendum.

Theuniondivvie

This is slightly weird.

https://twitter.com/thoughtland/status/1119603680171438080

ydoethur

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

Fenman said:

Which, Mike, is why I think the TIGs will not do well in the Euros. The post May 2nd narrative will be about the return of the Lib Dems, the real party of Remain. It will be better to Chuka it in.

Sad to say, I am beginning to think that TIG has blown its chance. Which is worth a thread in itself. They ducked the opportunity to do a policy declaration a la Limehouse, because both Tory and Labour defectors wanted to cling to the belief that "they didn't leave their party, it left them", which obviously doesn't compute. So there was no call to arms for people looking for a new approach to politics.

They oversold the prospect of getting a steady flow of recruits. Even on political reform only Chuka has tried to set out a comprehensive agenda, leaving doubts as to what their MPs really think about PR or Lords reform. Their social media performance has been somewhat lame. Their choice of name doesn't really work and their very poor logo wasn't accepted by the EC. They gave a cold shoulder to the LibDems and don't really seem to understand what it means to be a third party in our political system.

Now it looks like they could become merely a vehicle for former MPs who lost their seats and former MEPs rejected by the main parties to try and resurrect their careers. Candidates chosen and ordered into a list by an opaque interview process, because they don't yet have any formal membership structure. An end point a very long way from the change they initially promised. Indeed aside from Chuka's political reform speech and some stirring opposition to Brexit from Soubry and Leslie, it isn't clear what they actually offer, and it certainly doesn't appear to include very much 'change'.

The sadness is that if they fail, it will close off the chance for others to do a better job. Leaving Farage as the only chance of 'breaking the mould' - and he is surely likely to lose interest once Brexit is out the way, whatever he says now about his longer term objective.

I think a lot of Labour MP's were on the point of jumping ship, before Corbyn moved on the second referendum.

He hasn't. I think they were more put off by the vehemence of the Labour reaction.

IanB2

ydoethur said:

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

Fenman said:

Which, Mike, is why I think the TIGs will not do well in the Euros. The post May 2nd narrative will be about the return of the Lib Dems, the real party of Remain. It will be better to Chuka it in.

Sad to say, I am beginning to think that TIG has blown its chance. Which is worth a thread in itself. They ducked (snip) a performance has been somewhat lame. Their choice of name doesn't really work and their very poor logo wasn't accepted by the EC. They gave a cold shoulder to the LibDems and don't really seem to understand what it means to be a third party in our political system.

Now it looks like they could become merely a vehicle for former MPs who lost their seats and former MEPs rejected by the main parties to try and resurrect their careers. Candidates chosen and ordered into a list by an opaque interview process, because they don't yet have any formal membership structure. An end point a very long way from the change they initially promised. Indeed aside from Chuka's political reform speech and some stirring opposition to Brexit from Soubry and Leslie, it isn't clear what they actually offer, and it certainly doesn't appear to include very much 'change'.

The sadness is that if they fail, it will close off the chance for others to do a better job. Leaving Farage as the only chance of 'breaking the mould' - and he is surely likely to lose interest once Brexit is out the way, whatever he says now about his longer term objective.

I think a lot of Labour MP's were on the point of jumping ship, before Corbyn moved on the second referendum.

He hasn't. I think they were more put off by the vehemence of the Labour reaction.

Labour's reaction was predictable, and indeed familiar to anyone who was in politics in the 1980s.

The real problem is that they comprise Labourites appalled by Corbyn and Tories appalled by the ERG but otherwise with no common agenda other than all being appalled by Brexit. Which meant either doing some hard early thinking to set out a new political direction, or accepting that they were a short term vehicle and, mirroring Farage, setting up a "Remain Party" to capitalise on the current political opportunity, being prepared eventually to fold themselves into the LibDems.

A "Remain Party" on the back of the march of a million and the six million petition would surely have demanded media attention as a counterbalance to Farage - and put the LibDems into an interesting spot.

Instead, they are stranded with no policy, no message and no clear identity.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Divvie, I agree.

Marr's assertion is a legitimate perspective, but journalists should be wary of being seen to have their own positions or imposing their own interpretation on events (I recall condemning then BBC political editor Nick Robinson for raising race [we'd be seeing fewer brown faces, or suchlike] when it came to Cameron's pledge to reduce non-EU migration).

I think that's something that degrades both the value of news and the esteem the public have far it. When ITV has Bradby and Peston talking about politics it's a smidgen of facts drowned in opinion and speculation.

isam

Theuniondivvie said:

This is slightly weird.

https://twitter.com/thoughtland/status/1119603680171438080

Isn't it about 3 years old? I wouldn't worry, the vote was ignored anyway

isam

It is bizarre how the President of the US uses social media in such a way

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1119629941677547520?s=21

IanB2

An important story, recognising the real damage a Tory leadership contest pandering to the petty obsessions of its members could do to national policy:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/apr/20/tories-conservatives-hs2-party-leadership-hopefuls-warned

brendan16

isam said:

Upminster Bridge - The least used Underground station on the District Line, Nazi imagery, phone boxes with no phones and one of the least impressive Bridges in the world?


https://youtu.be/21LVdnStd_4 ...

Why so down on the Bridge?

It’s a very red station in a strongly Tory and pro leave area which elects independents to the local council. For ‘London’ that makes it quite distinctive!

rottenborough

IanB2 said:

An important story, recognising the real damage a Tory leadership contest pandering to the petty obsessions of its members could do to national policy:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/apr/20/tories-conservatives-hs2-party-leadership-hopefuls-warned

Yep. It really is a major problem for our democracy that the two main parties membership is so unrepresentative of the voting public.

We will regret cancelling this in years to come.

kle4

IanB2 said:

Fenman said:

Which, Mike, is why I think the TIGs will not do well in the Euros. The post May 2nd narrative will be about the return of the Lib Dems, the real party of Remain. It will be better to Chuka it in.

Sad to say, I am beginning to think that TIG has blown its chance. Which is worth a thread in itself. They ducked the opportunity to do a policy declaration a la Limehouse, because both Tory and Labour defectors wanted to cling to the belief that "they didn't leave their party, it left them", which obviously doesn't compute. So there was no call to arms for people looking for a new approach to politics.
.

I think this is an interesting point because indeed to start with they were saying essentially they were still Labour and Tory. I get why they wanted to do that but if you're making an argument about needing new politics then make it

anothernick

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

Fenman said:

Which, Mike, is why I think the TIGs will not do well in the Euros. The post May 2nd narrative will be about the return of the Lib Dems, the real party of Remain. It will be better to Chuka it in.

Sad to say, I am beginning to think that TIG has blown its chance. Which is worth a thread in itself. They ducked the opportunity to do a policy declaration a la Limehouse, because both Tory and Labour defectors wanted to cling to the belief that "they didn't leave their party, it left them", which obviously doesn't compute. So there was no call to arms for people looking for a new approach to politics.

They oversold the prospect of getting a steady flow of recruits. Even on political reform only Chuka has tried to set out a comprehensive agenda, leaving doubts as to what their MPs really think about PR or Lords reform. Their social media performance has been somewhat lame. Their choice of name doesn't really work and their very poor logo wasn't accepted by the EC. They gave a cold shoulder to the LibDems and don't really seem to understand what it means to be a third party in our political system.

Now it looks like they could become merely a vehicle for former MPs who lost their seats and former MEPs rejected by the main parties to try and resurrect their careers. Candidates chosen and ordered into a list by an opaque interview process, because they don't yet have any formal membership structure. An end point a very long way from the change they initially promised. Indeed aside from Chuka's political reform speech and some stirring opposition to Brexit from Soubry and Leslie, it isn't clear what they actually offer, and it certainly doesn't appear to include very much 'change'.

The sadness is that if they fail, it will close off the chance for others to do a better job. Leaving Farage as the only chance of 'breaking the mould' - and he is surely likely to lose interest once Brexit is out the way, whatever he says now about his longer term objective.

I think a lot of Labour MP's were on the point of jumping ship, before Corbyn moved on the second referendum.

And Watson new grouping has also helped steady the ship. Watson spoke in favour of a PV at the rally last month, that would not have happened a few months ago. And a number of other senior figures have come our publicly in favour of a second vote. TIG certainly helped this along, but I agree with Mr Ian's hypothesis that they have no future. My MP is one of the Labour defectors but there is no sign of anyone in the party following him and no activity at local level.

nico67

The worn out media narrative of the Leave vote.

A cry for help from left behind Communities , really if that was the case I’d have been a lot more accepting of the result .

Even though they chose to take their anger out on the wrong thing . The government really should have been the cause of their anger .

A big part of the Leave vote was due to well off Tories in the Shires , the same group who want a no deal and really have little to lose whilst fxcking everyone else .

This is the same group who overwhelmingly make up the Tory Membership . The fact they will be choosing the next PM should concern a large majority of the public .

The leadership campaign will turn into one long anti EU tirade with the candidates trashing the UKs relationship with that , and a race to the bottom as Bozo and the rest do everything but declare war on our nearest neighbours .

The Tories should never be forgiven for bringing about the ghastly referendum , for its ERG death cult for trashing any deal unless it’s a complete rupture with the EU , and for opening up a Pandora’s box of hate and division .

Nigelb

isam said:

It is bizarre how the President of the US uses social media in such a way

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1119629941677547520?s=21

Unaccountably missing the 30 “I don’t recall” replies to Mueller’s questions from the possessor of ‘one of the greatest memories’....

RobD

nico67 said:

The worn out media narrative of the Leave vote.

A cry for help from left behind Communities , really if that was the case I’d have been a lot more accepting of the result .

Even though they chose to take their anger out on the wrong thing . The government really should have been the cause of their anger .

A big part of the Leave vote was due to well off Tories in the Shires , the same group who want a no deal and really have little to lose whilst fxcking everyone else .

This is the same group who overwhelmingly make up the Tory Membership . The fact they will be choosing the next PM should concern a large majority of the public .

The leadership campaign will turn into one long anti EU tirade with the candidates trashing the UKs relationship with that , and a race to the bottom as Bozo and the rest do everything but declare war on our nearest neighbours .

The Tories should never be forgiven for bringing about the ghastly referendum , for its ERG death cult for trashing any deal unless it’s a complete rupture with the EU , and for opening up a Pandora’s box of hate and division .

Ghastly referendum? Heaven forbid the people have a say about the future direction of their country.

isam

brendan16 said:

isam said:

Upminster Bridge - The least used Underground station on the District Line, Nazi imagery, phone boxes with no phones and one of the least impressive Bridges in the world?


https://youtu.be/21LVdnStd_4 ...

Why so down on the Bridge?

It’s a very red station in a strongly Tory and pro leave area which elects independents to the local council. For ‘London’ that makes it quite distinctive!

I live about half a mile away, it’s always just made me smile that the bridge is so small that you wouldn’t even know it was there, yet has a station named after it.

I smoked my first ever cigarette in the waiting room when I was about 14 😳

IanB2

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

Fenman said:

Which, Mike, is why I think the TIGs will not do well in the Euros. The post May 2nd narrative will be about the return of the Lib Dems, the real party of Remain. It will be better to Chuka it in.

Sad to say, I am beginning to think that TIG has blown its chance. Which is worth a thread in itself. They ducked the opportunity to do a policy declaration a la Limehouse, because both Tory and Labour defectors wanted to cling to the belief that "they didn't leave their party, it left them", which obviously doesn't compute. So there was no call to arms for people looking for a new approach to politics.
.

I think this is an interesting point because indeed to start with they were saying essentially they were still Labour and Tory. I get why they wanted to do that but if you're making an argument about needing new politics then make it

Exactly. They have named themselves the change party because they wish to return to how things were before Momentum and the ERG. The whole thing is a cock up.

nico67

RobD said:

nico67 said:

The worn out media narrative of the Leave vote.

A cry for help from left behind Communities , really if that was the case I’d have been a lot more accepting of the result .

Even though they chose to take their anger out on the wrong thing . The government really should have been the cause of their anger .

A big part of the Leave vote was due to well off Tories in the Shires , the same group who want a no deal and really have little to lose whilst fxcking everyone else .

This is the same group who overwhelmingly make up the Tory Membership . The fact they will be choosing the next PM should concern a large majority of the public .

The leadership campaign will turn into one long anti EU tirade with the candidates trashing the UKs relationship with that , and a race to the bottom as Bozo and the rest do everything but declare war on our nearest neighbours .

The Tories should never be forgiven for bringing about the ghastly referendum , for its ERG death cult for trashing any deal unless it’s a complete rupture with the EU , and for opening up a Pandora’s box of hate and division .

Ghastly referendum? Heaven forbid the people have a say about the future direction of their country.

The referendum became a proxy for issues not related to the EU . It’s brought nothing but division and a rise in hate crimes . It was won on the back of stirring up xenophobia .

isam

15-20 years too late, but...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/20/tony-blair-says-migrants-must-integrate-to-combat-far-right

isam

Some of the worst spelling I’ve ever seen

https://twitter.com/jackratcliffe45/status/1119649520386826240?s=21

brokenwheel

nico67 said:

The worn out media narrative of the Leave vote.

A cry for help from left behind Communities , really if that was the case I’d have been a lot more accepting of the result .

Even though they chose to take their anger out on the wrong thing . The government really should have been the cause of their anger .

A big part of the Leave vote was due to well off Tories in the Shires , the same group who want a no deal and really have little to lose whilst fxcking everyone else .

Can you explain then why the wealthiest Tory shires of the M4 and M3 corridors voted Remain?



After all Cameron, Osborne etc are entirely representative of the wealthy Tory patrician class, and they are liberal remainers.

Or how if the Leave vote was mostly wealthy Tories, why so few went to university?

Maybe you are talking bollocks.

williamglenn

brokenwheel said:

Or how if the Leave vote was mostly wealthy Tories, why so few went to university?

What percentage of people went to university in the age range that the bulk of Brexit voters came from?

brokenwheel

williamglenn said:

brokenwheel said:

Or how if the Leave vote was mostly wealthy Tories, why so few went to university?

What percentage of people went to university in the age range that the bulk of Brexit voters came from?

If they are wealthy Tories the chances are high they are in the bracket that did go to university, even back then.

IanB2

brendan16 said:

isam said:

Upminster Bridge - The least used Underground station on the District Line, Nazi imagery, phone boxes with no phones and one of the least impressive Bridges in the world?


https://youtu.be/21LVdnStd_4 ...

Why so down on the Bridge?

Very good ScandiNoir television, especially the first two seasons. Season Three was perhaps somewhat contrived.

IanB2

williamglenn said:

brokenwheel said:

Or how if the Leave vote was mostly wealthy Tories, why so few went to university?

What percentage of people went to university in the age range that the bulk of Brexit voters came from?

Not enough, clearly.

rcs1000

For those that are interested, the US airlines have suddenly decided competition doesn't work for them

https://viewfromthewing.boardingarea.com/2019/04/18/ceos-of-delta-american-and-united-take-out-full-page-ad-for-protectionism/

brokenwheel

brokenwheel said:

nico67 said:

The worn out media narrative of the Leave vote.

A cry for help from left behind Communities , really if that was the case I’d have been a lot more accepting of the result .

Even though they chose to take their anger out on the wrong thing . The government really should have been the cause of their anger .

A big part of the Leave vote was due to well off Tories in the Shires , the same group who want a no deal and really have little to lose whilst fxcking everyone else .

Can you explain then why the wealthiest Tory shires of the M4 and M3 corridors voted Remain?



After all Cameron, Osborne etc are entirely representative of the wealthy Tory patrician class, and they are liberal remainers.

Or how if the Leave vote was mostly wealthy Tories, why so few went to university?

Maybe you are talking bollocks.

And of course how many wealthy Tories are there in the City of Birmingham? Tameside? Wigan? Sunderland?

williamglenn

brokenwheel said:

And of course how many wealthy Tories are there in the City of Birmingham?

There's a lot of wealth in and around Birmingham.

Richard_Tyndall

IanB2 said:

williamglenn said:

brokenwheel said:

Or how if the Leave vote was mostly wealthy Tories, why so few went to university?

What percentage of people went to university in the age range that the bulk of Brexit voters came from?

Not enough, clearly.

Still pushing this myth? You must have some real insecurity issues.

Sean_F

brokenwheel said:

brokenwheel said:

nico67 said:

The worn out media narrative of the Leave vote.

A cry for help from left behind Communities , really if that was the case I’d have been a lot more accepting of the result .

Even though they chose to take their anger out on the wrong thing . The government really should have been the cause of their anger .

A big part of the Leave vote was due to well off Tories in the Shires , the same group who want a no deal and really have little to lose whilst fxcking everyone else .

Can you explain then why the wealthiest Tory shires of the M4 and M3 corridors voted Remain?



After all Cameron, Osborne etc are entirely representative of the wealthy Tory patrician class, and they are liberal remainers.

Or how if the Leave vote was mostly wealthy Tories, why so few went to university?

Maybe you are talking bollocks.

And of course how many wealthy Tories are there in the City of Birmingham? Tameside? Wigan? Sunderland?

Wealthy Conservatives mostly voted Remain. The moderately well off mostly voted Leave.

Richard_Tyndall

RobD said:

nico67 said:

The worn out media narrative of the Leave vote.

A cry for help from left behind Communities , really if that was the case I’d have been a lot more accepting of the result .

Even though they chose to take their anger out on the wrong thing . The government really should have been the cause of their anger .

A big part of the Leave vote was due to well off Tories in the Shires , the same group who want a no deal and really have little to lose whilst fxcking everyone else .

This is the same group who overwhelmingly make up the Tory Membership . The fact they will be choosing the next PM should concern a large majority of the public .

The leadership campaign will turn into one long anti EU tirade with the candidates trashing the UKs relationship with that , and a race to the bottom as Bozo and the rest do everything but declare war on our nearest neighbours .

The Tories should never be forgiven for bringing about the ghastly referendum , for its ERG death cult for trashing any deal unless it’s a complete rupture with the EU , and for opening up a Pandora’s box of hate and division .

Ghastly referendum? Heaven forbid the people have a say about the future direction of their country.

Typical Remainers I am afraid. They only like democracy when they are winning.

MarqueeMark

nico67 said:

RobD said:

nico67 said:

The worn out media narrative of the Leave vote.

A cry for help from left behind Communities , really if that was the case I’d have been a lot more accepting of the result .

Even though they chose to take their anger out on the wrong thing . The government really should have been the cause of their anger .

A big part of the Leave vote was due to well off Tories in the Shires , the same group who want a no deal and really have little to lose whilst fxcking everyone else .

This is the same group who overwhelmingly make up the Tory Membership . The fact they will be choosing the next PM should concern a large majority of the public .

The leadership campaign will turn into one long anti EU tirade with the candidates trashing the UKs relationship with that , and a race to the bottom as Bozo and the rest do everything but declare war on our nearest neighbours .

The Tories should never be forgiven for bringing about the ghastly referendum , for its ERG death cult for trashing any deal unless it’s a complete rupture with the EU , and for opening up a Pandora’s box of hate and division .

Ghastly referendum? Heaven forbid the people have a say about the future direction of their country.

The referendum became a proxy for issues not related to the EU . It’s brought nothing but division and a rise in hate crimes . It was won on the back of stirring up xenophobia .

Jeez, we've got ourselves a Mini Meek.......

viewcode

brokenwheel said:

nico67 said:

The worn out media narrative of the Leave vote.

A cry for help from left behind Communities , really if that was the case I’d have been a lot more accepting of the result .

Even though they chose to take their anger out on the wrong thing . The government really should have been the cause of their anger .

A big part of the Leave vote was due to well off Tories in the Shires , the same group who want a no deal and really have little to lose whilst fxcking everyone else .

Can you explain then why the wealthiest Tory shires of the M4 and M3 corridors voted Remain?



After all Cameron, Osborne etc are entirely representative of the wealthy Tory patrician class, and they are liberal remainers.

Or how if the Leave vote was mostly wealthy Tories, why so few went to university?

Maybe you are talking bollocks.

Fair point, but the explanation is that *fewer than expected* posh people voted remain, not *None*

MaxPB

rcs1000 said:

For those that are interested, the US airlines have suddenly decided competition doesn't work for them

https://viewfromthewing.boardingarea.com/2019/04/18/ceos-of-delta-american-and-united-take-out-full-page-ad-for-protectionism/

Not surprising. Nations are going to start looking out for their own in a world where the likes of China (and Germany) game the system in favour of their own. I don't blame them either, the system needs to be fair for everyone or everyone needs to play the zero sum game.

brokenwheel

williamglenn said:

brokenwheel said:

And of course how many wealthy Tories are there in the City of Birmingham?

There's a lot of wealth in and around Birmingham.

Waaay not enough to make a difference, considering plenty of urban wealth isn’t Tory anyway. And most of the wealthiest parts are outside the city proper.

But are you really claiming there’s actually a large population of wealthy Tories in Walsall, Dudley, Wolves?


And again, Wigan? Tameside? Sunderland?

Sean_F

brokenwheel said:

Waaay not enough, considering plenty of urban wealth isn’t Tory anyway. And most of the wealthiest parts are outside the city proper.

But are you really claiming there’s actually a large population of wealthy Tories in Walsall, Dudley, Wolves?

No, but plenty of middle class Tories. Hertsmere is a good example. Tories in Radlett and Elstree voted Remain. In Potters Bar, they voted Leave. The former are rich, the latter, middle class.

JackJack

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

Fenman said:

Which, Mike, is why I think the TIGs will not do well in the Euros. The post May 2nd narrative will be about the return of the Lib Dems, the real party of Remain. It will be better to Chuka it in.

Sad to say, I am beginning to think that TIG has blown its chance. Which is worth a thread in itself. They ducked the opportunity to do a policy declaration a la Limehouse, because both Tory and Labour defectors wanted to cling to the belief that "they didn't leave their party, it left them", which obviously doesn't compute. So there was no call to arms for people looking for a new approach to politics.
.

I think this is an interesting point because indeed to start with they were saying essentially they were still Labour and Tory. I get why they wanted to do that but if you're making an argument about needing new politics then make it

Exactly. They have named themselves the change party because they wish to return to how things were before Momentum and the ERG. The whole thing is a cock up.

The only cock up has been the way Remainer MPs have disgraced themselves with outright opposition to a democratic decision. Brexit can not have failed for it has not been attempted. If Brexit gets blocked, the Conservatives should elect a Leader PM, deselect any Remainer blockers and unapologetically focus on every Brexit blocker in every pro-Leave constituency.

ydoethur

JackJack said:

the Conservatives should elect a Leader PM

Well, that would certainly be a pleasant change after the abject bunch of weaklings this country has been cursed with for years!

rcs1000

Boeing might have more issues than just the 737 Max:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/20/business/boeing-dreamliner-production-problems.html

NickPalmer

SandyRentool said:

El_Capitano said:

Pulpstar said:

Quincel said:

UKIP are barely running in 15% of seats in the LEs, the The Brexit Party aren't running at all. That should help The Tories hold on to their vote. Of course, both are running in the EU Elections - and PR makes it harder to ward off challengers.

I note in my area (Whole council election) there are 6 kippers and 6 independents running over the 25 seats, with 9 Lib Dems.
Fair play to the Tories here, they're the only party who has put up a full slate.
I also note none of the UKIP and independent candidates overlap.

Do the green party only contest city seats nowadays in the locals ?

They're contesting plenty of district council seats here. They'll win precisely 0 seats but the votes they do get will probably stop Labour and the Lib Dems from taking a few more off the Conservatives.

Yes it's bloody annoying. At least I've persuaded my other half to vote tactically for Labour in the locals to try to boot a Tory out.

My favourite rueful anecdote on that subject is that Green intervenion probably cost me my seat in 2010 - and the Green Party candidate then proceeded to join Labour a year later, prompting resignations from Labour loyalists who objected to his admission. I was in favour of welcoming him (broad tent and all that) but I did have to swallow hard.

That said, in my current patch Labour, LibDems and Greens have mysteriously arrived at an almost perfect complementary candidate selection, so that people in every ward have almost exactly the right number of non-Tory candidates. I suspect we will all benefit. There are zero TIGgers.

another_richard

IanB2 said:

An important story, recognising the real damage a Tory leadership contest pandering to the petty obsessions of its members could do to national policy:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/apr/20/tories-conservatives-hs2-party-leadership-hopefuls-warned

I don't know anyone who actually supports Expense Account Rail.

But then I don't personally benefit from it as the people who are so loud in its support do.

brendan16

brokenwheel said:

nico67 said:

The worn out media narrative of the Leave vote.

A cry for help from left behind Communities , really if that was the case I’d have been a lot more accepting of the result .

Even though they chose to take their anger out on the wrong thing . The government really should have been the cause of their anger .

A big part of the Leave vote was due to well off Tories in the Shires , the same group who want a no deal and really have little to lose whilst fxcking everyone else .

Can you explain then why the wealthiest Tory shires of the M4 and M3 corridors voted Remain?



After all Cameron, Osborne etc are entirely representative of the wealthy Tory patrician class, and they are liberal remainers.

Or how if the Leave vote was mostly wealthy Tories, why so few went to university?

Maybe you are talking bollocks.

How ‘ghastly’ of you.

AndreaParma_82

The Labour Police and Crime Commissioner in South Yorkshire has lost the trigger ballot to be automatically re-selected as Labour candidate. Labour will have a full open selection now



The Tory PCC in North Yorkshire has also failed to be re-selected and then decided to retire rather than contest the open selection process

NickPalmer

Yesterday's somewhat downbeat anecdata quoted by Mike wasn't mirrored today, incidentally - rather positive Labour canvassing. I think the reason for the difference is that socioeconomic group does still make a difference down here in a way that it barely does in my former patch. I was canvassing a long road yesterday which allegedly has one of the highest proportions of £1M+houses in Britain (I doubt it, but it's certainly posh), and the Labour vote there is only 10%. In Broxtowe there are similarly luxurious streets where Labour is above 30% - lots of academics brandishing the Guardian and even the occasional Morning Star. Conversely, ex-council estates in Broxtowe are now hard work for Labour, with lots of Kippers, Tories and abstainers, whereas down here they're still predominantly Labour.

another_richard

Sean_F said:

brokenwheel said:

Waaay not enough, considering plenty of urban wealth isn’t Tory anyway. And most of the wealthiest parts are outside the city proper.

But are you really claiming there’s actually a large population of wealthy Tories in Walsall, Dudley, Wolves?

No, but plenty of middle class Tories. Hertsmere is a good example. Tories in Radlett and Elstree voted Remain. In Potters Bar, they voted Leave. The former are rich, the latter, middle class.

Any guess as to what financial level the tipping point between Remain Tories and Leaver Tories was ?

Obviously it would vary from district to district.

Stereotomy

IanB2 said:

Fenman said:

Which, Mike, is why I think the TIGs will not do well in the Euros. The post May 2nd narrative will be about the return of the Lib Dems, the real party of Remain. It will be better to Chuka it in.

Sad to say, I am beginning to think that TIG has blown its chance. Which is worth a thread in itself. They ducked the opportunity to do a policy declaration a la Limehouse, because both Tory and Labour defectors wanted to cling to the belief that "they didn't leave their party, it left them", which obviously doesn't compute. So there was no call to arms for people looking for a new approach to politics.

They oversold the prospect of getting a steady flow of further defectors. Even on political reform only Chuka has tried to set out a comprehensive agenda, leaving doubts as to what their MPs really think about PR or Lords reform. Their social media performance has been somewhat lame. Their choice of name doesn't really work and their very poor logo wasn't accepted by the EC. They gave a cold shoulder to the LibDems and don't really seem to understand what it means to be a third party in our political system.

Now it looks like they could become merely a vehicle for former MPs who lost their seats and former MEPs rejected by the main parties to try and resurrect their careers by standing for MEP. Candidates chosen and ordered into a list by an opaque interview process, because they don't yet have any formal membership structure. An end point a very long way from the change they initially promised. Indeed aside from Chuka's political reform speech and some stirring opposition to Brexit from Soubry and Leslie, it isn't clear what they actually offer, and it certainly doesn't appear to include very much 'change'.

The sadness is that if they fail, it will close off the chance for others to do a better job. Leaving Farage as the only chance of 'breaking the mould' - and he is surely likely to lose interest once Brexit is out the way, whatever he says now about his longer term objective.

Called this. The post-mortem of the CUKs will be all about the specific things they did wrong. Centrists won't accept that the fundamental concept of their political project was always doomed

AndyJS

IanB2: deciding not to fight elections immediately was one of TIGs worst decisions. When the SDP was formed in 1981, they couldn't wait to get an opportunity to contest elections from what I've read. Being a political party that doesn't want to fight elections is a contradiction in terms.

dixiedean

brokenwheel said:

williamglenn said:

brokenwheel said:

And of course how many wealthy Tories are there in the City of Birmingham?

There's a lot of wealth in and around Birmingham.

Waaay not enough to make a difference, considering plenty of urban wealth isn’t Tory anyway. And most of the wealthiest parts are outside the city proper.

But are you really claiming there’s actually a large population of wealthy Tories in Walsall, Dudley, Wolves?


And again, Wigan? Tameside? Sunderland?

There are plenty of well off people in the latter 3 areas you mention. This all turns on the definition of "wealthy."
Rich=Remain is a popular stereotype. As is North = Leave. Truth is there are plenty of surprising folk in either camp.

Sean_F

NickPalmer said:

SandyRentool said:

El_Capitano said:

Pulpstar said:

Quincel said:

UKIP are barely running in 15% of seats in the LEs, the The Brexit Party aren't running at all. That should help The Tories hold on to their vote. Of course, both are running in the EU Elections - and PR makes it harder to ward off challengers.

I note in my area (Whole council election) there are 6 kippers and 6 independents running over the 25 seats, with 9 Lib Dems.
Fair play to the Tories here, they're the only party who has put up a full slate.
I also note none of the UKIP and independent candidates overlap.

Do the green party only contest city seats nowadays in the locals ?

They're contesting plenty of district council seats here. They'll win precisely 0 seats but the votes they do get will probably stop Labour and the Lib Dems from taking a few more off the Conservatives.

Yes it's bloody annoying. At least I've persuaded my other half to vote tactically for Labour in the locals to try to boot a Tory out.

My favourite rueful anecdote on that subject is that Green intervenion probably cost me my seat in 2010 - and the Green Party candidate then proceeded to join Labour a year later, prompting resignations from Labour loyalists who objected to his admission. I was in favour of welcoming him (broad tent and all that) but I did have to swallow hard.

That said, in my current patch Labour, LibDems and Greens have mysteriously arrived at an almost perfect complementary candidate selection, so that people in every ward have almost exactly the right number of non-Tory candidates. I suspect we will all benefit. There are zero TIGgers.

You probably won't benefit as much as you hope. Voters can't be swapped around.

another_richard

NickPalmer said:

Yesterday's somewhat downbeat anecdata quoted by Mike wasn't mirrored today, incidentally - rather positive Labour canvassing. I think the reason for the difference is that socioeconomic group does still make a difference down here in a way that it barely does in my former patch. I was canvassing a long road yesterday which allegedly has one of the highest proportions of £1M+houses in Britain (I doubt it, but it's certainly posh), and the Labour vote there is only 10%. In Broxtowe there are similarly luxurious streets where Labour is above 30% - lots of academics brandishing the Guardian and even the occasional Morning Star. Conversely, ex-council estates in Broxtowe are now hard work for Labour, with lots of Kippers, Tories and abstainers, whereas down here they're still predominantly Labour.

I have a theory that housing affordability is a key factor.

In Surrey house prices must lead to high inequality, lower social mobility and lower immigration thus keeping a solid Labour council estate vote.

Whereas the cheap housing of much of Eastern England spreads home ownership further down the socioeconomic ladder and also encourages immigration thus creating a more right-wing working class vote.

The source of the wealth for the posh houses must be different between Surrey and Broxtowe with the former being predominantly City based but a much more public sector element in Broxtowe.

kle4

IanB2 said:

brendan16 said:

isam said:

Upminster Bridge - The least used Underground station on the District Line, Nazi imagery, phone boxes with no phones and one of the least impressive Bridges in the world?


https://youtu.be/21LVdnStd_4 ...

Why so down on the Bridge?

Very good ScandiNoir television, especially the first two seasons. Season Three was perhaps somewhat contrived.

I hate to imagine that, as the first season was already incredibly contrived!

Sean_F

another_richard said:

Sean_F said:

brokenwheel said:

Waaay not enough, considering plenty of urban wealth isn’t Tory anyway. And most of the wealthiest parts are outside the city proper.

But are you really claiming there’s actually a large population of wealthy Tories in Walsall, Dudley, Wolves?

No, but plenty of middle class Tories. Hertsmere is a good example. Tories in Radlett and Elstree voted Remain. In Potters Bar, they voted Leave. The former are rich, the latter, middle class.

Any guess as to what financial level the tipping point between Remain Tories and Leaver Tories was ?

Obviously it would vary from district to district.

Probably at about the £1m per household level.

kle4

Stereotomy said:

IanB2 said:

Fenman said:

Which, Mike, is why I think the TIGs will not do well in the Euros. The post May 2nd narrative will be about the return of the Lib Dems, the real party of Remain. It will be better to Chuka it in.

Sad to say, I am beginning to think that TIG has blown its chance. Which is worth a thread in itself. They ducked the opportunity to do a policy declaration a la Limehouse, because both Tory and Labour defectors wanted to cling to the belief that "they didn't leave their party, it left them", which obviously doesn't compute. So there was no call to arms for people looking for a new approach to politics.

They oversold the prospect of getting a steady flow of further defectors. Even on political reform only Chuka has tried to set out a comprehensive agenda, leaving doubts as to what their MPs really think about PR or Lords reform. Their social media performance has been somewhat lame. Their choice of name doesn't really work and their very poor logo wasn't accepted by the EC. They gave a cold shoulder to the LibDems and don't really seem to understand what it means to be a third party in our political system.

Now it looks like they could become merely a vehicle for former MPs who lost their seats and former MEPs rejected by the main parties to try and resurrect their careers by standing for MEP. Candidates chosen and ordered into a list by an opaque interview process, because they don't yet have any formal membership structure. An end point a very long way from the change they initially promised. Indeed aside from Chuka's political reform speech and some stirring opposition to Brexit from Soubry and Leslie, it isn't clear what they actually offer, and it certainly doesn't appear to include very much 'change'.

The sadness is that if they fail, it will close off the chance for others to do a better job. Leaving Farage as the only chance of 'breaking the mould' - and he is surely likely to lose interest once Brexit is out the way, whatever he says now about his longer term objective.

Called this. The post-mortem of the CUKs will be all about the specific things they did wrong. Centrists won't accept that the fundamental concept of their political project was always doomed

I think I'll probably give them my vote in the euros, they deserve some level of encouragement for being brave enough to quit their parties.

AndyJS

Theuniondivvie said:

This is slightly weird.

https://twitter.com/thoughtland/status/1119603680171438080

It's self-evidently Marr putting a particularly point of view forward for discussion. It doesn't mean he endorses that point of view.

El_Capitano

Is there anyone here on PB who's planning to vote TIG at the Euro elections?

I know we're an atypical bunch, but you'd expect there to be at least one putative TIGger in our ranks.

edit: ah, I see kle4 posted at the same time

williamglenn

AndyJS said:

Theuniondivvie said:

This is slightly weird.

https://twitter.com/thoughtland/status/1119603680171438080

It's self-evidently Marr putting a particularly point of view forward for discussion. It doesn't mean he endorses that point of view.

He prefaces that segment by saying they are “a few thoughts of my own”.

AndyJS

williamglenn said:

AndyJS said:

Theuniondivvie said:

This is slightly weird.

https://twitter.com/thoughtland/status/1119603680171438080

It's self-evidently Marr putting a particularly point of view forward for discussion. It doesn't mean he endorses that point of view.

He prefaces that segment by saying they are “a few thoughts of my own”.

That doesn't invalidate my point. Andrew Marr has spent most of his life being a typical metropolitan liberal so it's interesting if he's trying to see the other side of the argument for a change. That was what he was doing here I think. It doesn't mean he's gone over "to the other side".

steve_garner

Pulpstar said:

Man of the match Big Billy into the final.

There's only one Big Billy. Billy Whitehurst was the hardest man I ever saw play football and as I'm a Tigers fan I saw a lot of him. Google him. When George Graham was Millwall boss he said words to the effect that football needed protecting from players like Whitehurst.

Quincel

AndyJS said:

IanB2: deciding not to fight elections immediately was one of TIGs worst decisions. When the SDP was formed in 1981, they couldn't wait to get an opportunity to contest elections from what I've read. Being a political party that doesn't want to fight elections is a contradiction in terms.

Didn't only one SDP MP trigger a by-election when defecting, and he lost?

brokenwheel

viewcode said:

brokenwheel said:

nico67 said:

The worn out media narrative of the Leave vote.

A cry for help from left behind Communities , really if that was the case I’d have been a lot more accepting of the result .

Even though they chose to take their anger out on the wrong thing . The government really should have been the cause of their anger .

A big part of the Leave vote was due to well off Tories in the Shires , the same group who want a no deal and really have little to lose whilst fxcking everyone else .

Can you explain then why the wealthiest Tory shires of the M4 and M3 corridors voted Remain?



After all Cameron, Osborne etc are entirely representative of the wealthy Tory patrician class, and they are liberal remainers.

Or how if the Leave vote was mostly wealthy Tories, why so few went to university?

Maybe you are talking bollocks.

Fair point, but the explanation is that *fewer than expected* posh people voted remain, not *None*

No, that’s not the assertion. This false narrative has been seeping in from the Remain camp that actually Leave is some Machiavellian scheme of the most well-off to screw over the poor.

The truth is precisely the opposite. The places with the greatest concentrations of wealth voted Remain.

It’s blatant. Take a look at Kent, a very leavey place. The wealthiest part is Tunbridge Wells, it’s the destination of choice for City workers for example. Just as true-blue Tory as elsewhere, yet it’s the only part of the county to vote Remain.

Jonathan

NickPalmer said:

Yesterday's somewhat downbeat anecdata quoted by Mike wasn't mirrored today, incidentally - rather positive Labour canvassing. I think the reason for the difference is that socioeconomic group does still make a difference down here in a way that it barely does in my former patch. I was canvassing a long road yesterday which allegedly has one of the highest proportions of £1M+houses in Britain (I doubt it, but it's certainly posh), and the Labour vote there is only 10%. In Broxtowe there are similarly luxurious streets where Labour is above 30% - lots of academics brandishing the Guardian and even the occasional Morning Star. Conversely, ex-council estates in Broxtowe are now hard work for Labour, with lots of Kippers, Tories and abstainers, whereas down here they're still predominantly Labour.

Welcome to the south Nick. Eye opening I imagine.

algarkirk

Stereotomy said:

IanB2 said:

Fenman said:

Which, Mike, is why I think the TIGs will not do well in the Euros. The post May 2nd narrative will be about the return of the Lib Dems, the real party of Remain. It will be better to Chuka it in.

Sad to say, I am beginning to think that TIG has blown its chance. Which is worth a thread in itself. They ducked the opportunity to do a policy declaration a la Limehouse, because both Tory and Labour defectors wanted to cling to the belief that "they didn't leave their party, it left them", which obviously doesn't compute. So there was no call to arms for people looking for a new approach to politics.

They oversold the prospect of getting a steady flow of further defectors. Even on political reform only Chuka has tried to set out a comprehensive agenda, leaving doubts as to what their MPs really think about PR or Lords reform. Their social media performance has been somewhat lame. Their choice of name doesn't really work and their very poor logo wasn't accepted by the EC. They gave a cold shoulder to the LibDems and don't really seem to understand what it means to be a third party in our political system.

Now it looks like they could become merely a vehicle for former MPs who lost their seats and former MEPs rejected by the main parties to try and resurrect their careers by standing for MEP. Candidates chosen and ordered into a list by an opaque interview process, because they don't yet have any formal membership structure. An end point a very long way from the change they initially promised. Indeed aside from Chuka's political reform speech and some stirring opposition to Brexit from Soubry and Leslie, it isn't clear what they actually offer, and it certainly doesn't appear to include very much 'change'.

The sadness is that if they fail, it will close off the chance for others to do a better job. Leaving Farage as the only chance of 'breaking the mould' - and he is surely likely to lose interest once Brexit is out the way, whatever he says now about his longer term objective.

Called this. The post-mortem of the CUKs will be all about the specific things they did wrong. Centrists won't accept that the fundamental concept of their political project was always doomed

Agree. It was always a difficult call, given the history of the SDP and the nature of centrists not to be activists unless they have to. There is no serious argument between the LDs and TIGs on the broad shape of the future for the nation so there isn't a space for these comparative amateurs (compared with SDP's Gang of Four). Also, the vacant space in politics is not where TIGs or LDs are pitched. The gap is for socially conservative attitudes with Old Labour economics plus flag, defence and family.

justin124

AndyJS said:

IanB2: deciding not to fight elections immediately was one of TIGs worst decisions. When the SDP was formed in 1981, they couldn't wait to get an opportunity to contest elections from what I've read. Being a political party that doesn't want to fight elections is a contradiction in terms.

The SDP actually made the same error back in 1981 by faling to resign their seats to force by elections. Had they done so, virtually all were likely to have been re-elected and better placed to fight the 1983 election. A single late defector - Bruce Douglas -Mann - insisted on a by election at Mitcham & Morden in Spring 1982, but he fell victim to the surge of patriotism which boosted the Tory vote at the time of the Falklands conflict. They also failed to fight the 1981 Local Elections, but fought a strong campaign with Roy Jenkins as the candidate at the July 1981 Warrington by election.

NickPalmer

Jonathan said:

Welcome to the south Nick. Eye opening I imagine.

Ha - we're working on it!

Sean_F

brokenwheel said:

viewcode said:

brokenwheel said:

nico67 said:

The worn out media narrative of the Leave vote.

A cry for help from left behind Communities , really if that was the case I’d have been a lot more accepting of the result .

Even though they chose to take their anger out on the wrong thing . The government really should have been the cause of their anger .

A big part of the Leave vote was due to well off Tories in the Shires , the same group who want a no deal and really have little to lose whilst fxcking everyone else .

Can you explain then why the wealthiest Tory shires of the M4 and M3 corridors voted Remain?



After all Cameron, Osborne etc are entirely representative of the wealthy Tory patrician class, and they are liberal remainers.

Or how if the Leave vote was mostly wealthy Tories, why so few went to university?

Maybe you are talking bollocks.

Fair point, but the explanation is that *fewer than expected* posh people voted remain, not *None*

No, that’s not the assertion. This false narrative has been seeping in from the Remain camp that actually Leave is some Machiavellian scheme of the most well-off to screw over the poor.

The truth is precisely the opposite. The places with the greatest concentrations of wealth voted Remain.

It’s blatant. Take a look at Kent. The wealthiest part is Tunbridge Wells, it’s the destination of choice for City workers for example. Just as true-blue Tory as elsewhere, yet it’s the only part of the county to vote Remain.

IIRC, the wealthiest 10% of constituencies voted heavily Remain. The remining 90% then split about 70/30 Leave all the way down the wealth scale.

Edit, the constituencies split 70/30, not the voters.

ydoethur

El_Capitano said:

Is there anyone here on PB who's planning to vote TIG at the Euro elections?

I know we're an atypical bunch, but you'd expect there to be at least one putative TIGger in our ranks.

edit: ah, I see kle4 posted at the same time

Do we know which MEP coalition they are aligning themselves with?

NickPalmer

another_richard said:

I have a theory that housing affordability is a key factor.

In Surrey house prices must lead to high inequality, lower social mobility and lower immigration thus keeping a solid Labour council estate vote.

Whereas the cheap housing of much of Eastern England spreads home ownership further down the socioeconomic ladder and also encourages immigration thus creating a more right-wing working class vote.

The source of the wealth for the posh houses must be different between Surrey and Broxtowe with the former being predominantly City based but a much more public sector element in Broxtowe.

That's a very interesting comment, and I think entirely right. House prices are the big issue here, with even wealthy families saying their kids have to leave the area altogether when they leave home.

The Council local plan is completely brazen about it - they concede there is indeed a serious shortage of affordable housing, but they have explicitly decided not to address it, because if they did then "the usual formula" (of only a fifth of housing being "affordable") would mean they had to build lots more non-affordable housing too, and that would mean too much house-building. Whether this "usual formula" is a legal requirement or just something they've made up I can't make out - does anyone know?

justin124

ydoethur said:

El_Capitano said:

Is there anyone here on PB who's planning to vote TIG at the Euro elections?

I know we're an atypical bunch, but you'd expect there to be at least one putative TIGger in our ranks.

edit: ah, I see kle4 posted at the same time

Do we know which MEP coalition they are aligning themselves with?

There were reports a couple of days ago that they would sit with the EPP group.

ydoethur

NickPalmer said:

another_richard said:

I have a theory that housing affordability is a key factor.

In Surrey house prices must lead to high inequality, lower social mobility and lower immigration thus keeping a solid Labour council estate vote.

Whereas the cheap housing of much of Eastern England spreads home ownership further down the socioeconomic ladder and also encourages immigration thus creating a more right-wing working class vote.

The source of the wealth for the posh houses must be different between Surrey and Broxtowe with the former being predominantly City based but a much more public sector element in Broxtowe.

That's a very interesting comment, and I think entirely right. House prices are the big issue here, with even wealthy families saying their kids have to leave the area altogether when they leave home.

The Council local plan is completely brazen about it - they concede there is indeed a serious shortage of affordable housing, but they have explicitly decided not to address it, because if they did then "the usual formula" (of only a fifth of housing being "affordable") would mean they had to build lots more non-affordable housing too, and that would mean too much house-building. Whether this "usual formula" is a legal requirement or just something they've made up I can't make out - does anyone know?

My understanding, although I am no lawyer, is that at least 20% of any major development must be 'affordable.' I cannot see how that would stop them building a development that was 100% affordable.

However, my suspicion is that they would work only via developers who would insist on the full 80% luxury to maximise their profits. So essentially, a policy decision by Surrey.

JohnO

The ward I’m contesting (also in leafy Surrey) last year had an almost 18% Cons majority over the local independents. I am not expecting to be elected on May 2nd.

kyf_100

algarkirk said:

Stereotomy said:

IanB2 said:

Sad to say, I am beginning to think that TIG has blown its chance. Which is worth a thread in itself. They ducked the opportunity to do a policy declaration a la Limehouse, because both Tory and Labour defectors wanted to cling to the belief that "they didn't leave their party, it left them", which obviously doesn't compute. So there was no call to arms for people looking for a new approach to politics.

They oversold the prospect of getting a steady flow of further defectors. Even on political reform only Chuka has tried to set out a comprehensive agenda, leaving doubts as to what their MPs really think about PR or Lords reform. Their social media performance has been somewhat lame. Their choice of name doesn't really work and their very poor logo wasn't accepted by the EC. They gave a cold shoulder to the LibDems and don't really seem to understand what it means to be a third party in our political system.

Now it looks like they could become merely a vehicle for former MPs who lost their seats and former MEPs rejected by the main parties to try and resurrect their careers by standing for MEP. Candidates chosen and ordered into a list by an opaque interview process, because they don't yet have any formal membership structure. An end point a very long way from the change they initially promised. Indeed aside from Chuka's political reform speech and some stirring opposition to Brexit from Soubry and Leslie, it isn't clear what they actually offer, and it certainly doesn't appear to include very much 'change'.

The sadness is that if they fail, it will close off the chance for others to do a better job. Leaving Farage as the only chance of 'breaking the mould' - and he is surely likely to lose interest once Brexit is out the way, whatever he says now about his longer term objective.

Called this. The post-mortem of the CUKs will be all about the specific things they did wrong. Centrists won't accept that the fundamental concept of their political project was always doomed

Agree. It was always a difficult call, given the history of the SDP and the nature of centrists not to be activists unless they have to. There is no serious argument between the LDs and TIGs on the broad shape of the future for the nation so there isn't a space for these comparative amateurs (compared with SDP's Gang of Four). Also, the vacant space in politics is not where TIGs or LDs are pitched. The gap is for socially conservative attitudes with Old Labour economics plus flag, defence and family.

Here is the obituary.

Change were continuity Blair. They lost because they were Jacob Rees Mogg without the nanny and the double breasted suits. A throwback to a past era, one to which few desired to return. Change is a direction. The country chose forward. The Cuks? Back.

ydoethur

justin124 said:

ydoethur said:

El_Capitano said:

Is there anyone here on PB who's planning to vote TIG at the Euro elections?

I know we're an atypical bunch, but you'd expect there to be at least one putative TIGger in our ranks.

edit: ah, I see kle4 posted at the same time

Do we know which MEP coalition they are aligning themselves with?

There were reports a couple of days ago that they would sit with the EPP group.

Thank you. That would be logical, if true, but it would also be a good reason not to vote for them given Manfred Weber comes across as a less drunk version of Juncker.

Edit - I'm personally in a horribly difficult position in this election because I think the Socialist candidate for EUCC is by far the best, but I'm damned if I'll vote for a party associated with Corbyn.